(Meteorologist)

Fri Oct 21 2005 10:32 PM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

The last available Cancun radar image at 2137Z suggests that the outer wind max/eyewall was just barely south of Cancun at that time. As Wilma has continued to drift to the north, that feature may have already reached Cancun or will reach them at any time. Conditions could really go downhill there after that. Thankfully, the convection seems to have weakened somewhat in the northern half of the system based on the IR, but there is still some fierce weather impacting the coast up there.

(Moderator)

Fri Oct 21 2005 10:41 PM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

komi

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Oct 21 2005 10:53 PM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Firs effect from Wilma on central Florida ...
http://65.75.66.73/IMG_0820.JPG
http://65.75.66.73/IMG_0822.JPG
http://65.75.66.73/IMG_0824.JPG
http://65.75.66.73/IMG_0825.JPG

I took photos one hour ago

Looks more like Kansas ..

Myles

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Oct 21 2005 11:13 PM

Looks like a stall

From looking at sat images. The last 6 frames, or 3 hours, show about no movement. If anything she is creeping north ever so slightly. Doesn't look like she will bury herself in the Yucatan, but you never know, she could start moving west again.

Lance Wilson

(Verified CFHC User)

Fri Oct 21 2005 11:17 PM

Re: Looks like a stall

Quote:

From looking at sat images. The last 6 frames, or 3 hours, show about no movement. If anything she is creeping north ever so slightly. Doesn't look like she will bury herself in the Yucatan, but you never know, she could start moving west again.

The last hour she has gone 7 min north and 1 min east. (Comparing recon reports.) Still about 5 MPH or so I think.

MikeC

(Admin)

Fri Oct 21 2005 11:18 PM

Re: Looks like a stall

THere is a brave soul still uploading photos from Cancun at this link from StormCarib. The worst hasn't reached there yet.

I've posted the link in the main thread, but thought it beared mentioning here as well.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Fri Oct 21 2005 11:18 PM

Re: Looks like a stall

Quote:

From looking at sat images. The last 6 frames, or 3 hours, show about no movement. If anything she is creeping north ever so slightly. Doesn't look like she will bury herself in the Yucatan, but you never know, she could start moving west again.

The 2215z image shows just a HINT of movement due north to me. It's still possible that Wilma will never fully make landfall on the mainland (not likely, but possible)... She's been paralleling the coast inching northward for several hours now pretty much.

komi

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Oct 21 2005 11:19 PM

Re: Looks like a stall

Looks to me like eyewall is not that perfect like earlier ...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/tropi...b-204N-867W.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Oct 21 2005 11:21 PM

Re: Looks like a stall

Quote:

From looking at sat images. The last 6 frames, or 3 hours, show about no movement. If anything she is creeping north ever so slightly. Doesn't look like she will bury herself in the Yucatan, but you never know, she could start moving west again.

Is it the cool front we are experiencing here in Arkansas that is supposed to turn this thing east? Someone please tell me exactly what is supposed to nudge this baby once it finally gets enough steam to "walk on through to the other side"?

(Meteorologist)

Fri Oct 21 2005 11:21 PM

Re: Looks like a stall

If anything, I think there has been a slow northward drift. It also appears that the eye may be shrinking some on the most recent frames, so maybe it is going to try another ERC after all. The 12Z UKMET was the only recent model that never made a full Yucatan landfall with Wilma, basically having it parallel the coast for 36 hours. That was an outlier, but it seems to be the only model solution that isn't already too far west in its track.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Fri Oct 21 2005 11:22 PM

Re: Looks like a stall

Quote:

THere is a brave soul still uploading photos from Cancun at this link from StormCarib. The worst hasn't reached there yet.
I've posted the link in the main thread, but thought it beared mentioning here as well.

My god... what is that guy THINKING???? Of course... these pictures are a good example of why NOT to go out during a category 4 hurricane. I wonder how long he'll be able to provide new images, though... not long I don't think.

(Weather Analyst)

Fri Oct 21 2005 11:23 PM

Re: Looks like a stall

Looks more NNW to me and extremely slow - nearly stationary.

(Meteorologist)

Fri Oct 21 2005 11:24 PM

Re: Looks like a stall

000
URNT12 KNHC 212322
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/23:11:00Z
B. 20 deg 34 min N
086 deg 45 min W
C. 700 mb 2474 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 222 deg 111 kt
G. 129 deg 031 nm
H. EXTRAP 930 mb
I. 9 C/ 3048 m
J. 17 C/ 3046 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C24
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 1524A WILMA OB 31
MAX FL WIND 119 KT N QUAD 20:01:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB

(Weather Analyst)

Fri Oct 21 2005 11:25 PM

Re: Looks like a stall

I think that is the one. Timing is the big issue now.

(Meteorologist)

Fri Oct 21 2005 11:27 PM

Re: Looks like a stall

The latest recon fix is in the exact same location as the fix 90 minutes ago. Keep in mind, though, that there is some error involved in pinpointing the exact center.

(Moderator)

Fri Oct 21 2005 11:28 PM

Re: Looks like a stall

Last 2 hours (90 minutes, really) does verify for a NNW heading.

The radar that was dead, back to life, dead again, is now back to life again (for now). I'll continue my hourly updates to this puppy so long as there is data to do so.

(Verified CFHC User)

Fri Oct 21 2005 11:31 PM

Re: Looks like a stall

O.K., question, so what IF it doesn't come assure on the Yucatan, how will that impact the track and intesity? It looks very elongated to the north/northeast to me.

jlauderdal

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Oct 21 2005 11:32 PM

Re: Looks like a stall

Quote:

If anything, I think there has been a slow northward drift. It also appears that the eye may be shrinking some on the most recent frames, so maybe it is going to try another ERC after all. The 12Z UKMET was the only recent model that never made a full Yucatan landfall with Wilma, basically having it parallel the coast for 36 hours. That was an outlier, but it seems to be the only model solution that isn't already too far west in its track.

the farther north she makes the narrower the landmass so even if she comes inthere is less and less land to work with

(Weather Guru)

Fri Oct 21 2005 11:33 PM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

WOW Komi, Thanks for the photos.

jlauderdal

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Oct 21 2005 11:33 PM

Re: Looks like a stall

Quote:

Quote:

THere is a brave soul still uploading photos from Cancun at this link from StormCarib. The worst hasn't reached there yet.
I've posted the link in the main thread, but thought it beared mentioning here as well.

My god... what is that guy THINKING???? Of course... these pictures are a good example of why NOT to go out during a category 4 hurricane. I wonder how long he'll be able to provide new images, though... not long I don't think.

well he certinly gets some free publicity for his real estate business.

the young weatherman

(Verified CFHC User)

Fri Oct 21 2005 11:34 PM

Re: Looks like a stall

Quote:

Quote:

From looking at sat images. The last 6 frames, or 3 hours, show about no movement. If anything she is creeping north ever so slightly. Doesn't look like she will bury herself in the Yucatan, but you never know, she could start moving west again.

Is it the cool front we are experiencing here in Arkansas that is supposed to turn this thing east? Someone please tell me exactly what is supposed to nudge this baby once it finally gets enough steam to "walk on through to the other side"?

The cold front that is going to bring cold temparature and rain to southern Ontario in Canada has lowered to Jet stream to move Wilma

komi

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Oct 21 2005 11:39 PM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Quote:

WOW Komi, Thanks for the photos.

You are welcome .. !

I am in central Florida and i dont see them too much like this ...

Anyway, first time i see spinning and possible tornadic clouds, and i am 18 months in Florida !

There is nothing similar in Europe !

(Meteorologist)

Fri Oct 21 2005 11:40 PM

Re: Looks like a stall

Dropsonde in the SSE eyewall (which is the stronger side of the system right now) measured 137 kt winds at the surface, while a dropsonde in the NE eyewall measured 102 kt winds at the surface.

(Weather Analyst)

Fri Oct 21 2005 11:43 PM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Ah, now I see. Yes, those are impressive clouds and storms. Look at it from my perspective - Florida native and nearly 55. You'll get used to these, maybe.

(Weather Guru)

Fri Oct 21 2005 11:43 PM

Re: Looks like a stall

Anyone have the link to that latest GFS model. Earlier post said just S. of Tampa

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Fri Oct 21 2005 11:45 PM

Re: Looks like a stall

Quote:

Dropsonde in the SSE eyewall (which is the stronger side of the system right now) measured 137 kt winds at the surface, while a dropsonde in the NE eyewall measured 102 kt winds at the surface.

How reliable was the reading in the SSE eyewall, I wonder? 137kts is *JUST* over the threshold of cat 5 (157.55 mph by my calculation, which the NHC would round to 160). Will we see the storm upgraded to cat 5 at the 8pm intermediate advisory, or was this considered a gust? I assume it was a gust.

Edit: Well the 8pm advisory is already out with winds at 140... so I guess it was a gust.

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Oct 21 2005 11:45 PM

Re: Looks like a stall

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/index_slp_s_loop.shtml

Lance Wilson

(Verified CFHC User)

Fri Oct 21 2005 11:45 PM

Re: Looks like a stall

Quote:

Anyone have the link to that latest GFS model. Earlier post said just S. of Tampa

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE WILMA 24L

INITIAL TIME 18Z OCT 21

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 20.4 86.7 320./ 4.1
6 20.6 87.1 295./ 4.1
12 20.7 87.4 291./ 2.8
18 21.1 87.6 332./ 4.2
24 21.3 87.7 334./ 2.5
30 21.7 87.7 3./ 4.2
36 22.0 87.7 353./ 2.4
42 22.5 87.6 14./ 5.4
48 23.1 87.0 39./ 7.9
54 23.9 86.2 48./11.3
60 24.6 84.9 60./13.3
66 25.8 83.3 54./18.2
72 27.1 81.2 58./23.3
78 28.9 78.4 56./30.6
84 31.8 75.6 46./37.5
90 35.9 72.7 35./47.6
96 39.9 70.3 30./44.2
102 43.1 69.7 12./31.9
108 44.7 69.7 358./16.3
114 45.8 69.9 351./10.7
120 46.2 70.5 308./ 6.1

(Weather Analyst)

Fri Oct 21 2005 11:47 PM

Re: Looks like a stall

A little more on that cold front: East CONUS WV loop
Will it dig as far south as they think? Or is that the one that is expected to miss Wilma and another will come along behind it?

(Weather Master)

Fri Oct 21 2005 11:48 PM

Re: Looks like a stall

Not sure if you got an answered PM or not,

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/index.htm

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html

(Meteorologist)

Fri Oct 21 2005 11:49 PM

Re: Looks like a stall

One dropsonde indicating 137 kt winds is not enough evidence to raise the intensity up that high, because it could be more of a gust. There have been several dropsondes prior to this in the 120-130 knot range at the surface though, stronger than the winds at higher levels measured in the same dropsonde, so the wind profile may be a little unusual compared to most storms.

Big Red Machine

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Oct 21 2005 11:49 PM

Re: Looks like a stall

Quote:

well he certinly gets some free publicity for his real estate business.

Yes, because people will be clamoring for real estate in Cancun after this...

18z GFS @ 66 hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/fp1_066.shtml

Further north than previously, and not exactly a weak system either. This run is more along the lines of what my thinking has been for the past few days.

Tpratch, I'd like to give you a big public thank you for your work with the radar and the track today. That has been VERY helpful. I really appreciate it and hope that you will continue.

(Weather Analyst)

Fri Oct 21 2005 11:53 PM

Re: Looks like a stall

That looks like somewhere near Punta Gorda. Not good.

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Oct 21 2005 11:54 PM

Re: Looks like a stall

Mine too I am afraid, also the gfdl and a couple of the others are following suit. max says cat 1 or 2 but i think higher maybe 2 or 3
it is moving way more northerly than west now and just brushing the coast of the yuc, not thrilling for cent fl i think

(Weather Master)

Fri Oct 21 2005 11:56 PM

Re: Looks like a stall

Tampa says Yuck to that one

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Fri Oct 21 2005 11:57 PM

Re: Looks like a stall

Quote:

A little more on that cold front: East CONUS WV loop
Will it dig as far south as they think? Or is that the one that is expected to miss Wilma and another will come along behind it?

I just don't see how that front is going to push Wilma EAST as far as they say. The orientation of the front and the position of it just doesn't make sense for that kind of trajectory IMHO. Now, there are two more troughs behind that one I think, and the THIRD one is the one they expect to move the storm out... but it too is oriented wrong for that in my opinion. I still expect a landfall further north in Florida than the forecast, unfortunately.

Edit: Punta Gorda sounds about right... and we know what happened last year when Charlie got near Punta Gorda.

(Weather Guru)

Fri Oct 21 2005 11:59 PM

Re: Looks like a stall

Just when I thought we might be okay
Christine
St. Petersburg

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Oct 22 2005 12:02 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

18z gfs

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/05102118/1.html

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Oct 22 2005 12:02 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

I've had a bad feeling about this storm for several days. Maybe the LBAR model will verify - maybe not, but my gut feeling is that landfall will be closer to Tampa Bay.

komi

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Oct 22 2005 12:04 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

Hmmm ...

Looks to me like this storm already made this "Yucatan turn" ...

Lance Wilson

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 12:05 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

Quote:

Hmmm ...

Looks to me like this storm already made this "Yucatan turn" ...

What do you mean?

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 12:07 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

No change in coordinates at 8 p.m. yet moving northwest at 4????

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Oct 22 2005 12:07 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

yes it would seem wilma has decided she doesnt like cancun after all

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Oct 22 2005 12:08 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

Quote:

Just when I thought we might be okay

Keep your seatbelts on. These October storms can be really unpredictable.

komi

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Oct 22 2005 12:08 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

Looks to me like i smovin NNE now, or i need more sleep ....

(Weather Master)

Sat Oct 22 2005 12:08 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

Lighter note, Mike Siedel is in Bonita Bch and apparently is near a bar in which nearly everyone was dressed for their role on the Flinstones. Better get serious

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Oct 22 2005 12:09 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

Quote:

I've had a bad feeling about this storm for several days. Maybe the LBAR model will verify - maybe not, but my gut feeling is that landfall will be closer to Tampa Bay.

HOLY crap, I had just this afternoon, just resolved myself that we were free and clear here in the St. Pete/Tampa area.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 12:10 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

Quote:

Quote:

A little more on that cold front: East CONUS WV loop
Will it dig as far south as they think? Or is that the one that is expected to miss Wilma and another will come along behind it?

I just don't see how that front is going to push Wilma EAST as far as they say. The orientation of the front and the position of it just doesn't make sense for that kind of trajectory IMHO. Now, there are two more troughs behind that one I think, and the THIRD one is the one they expect to move the storm out... but it too is oriented wrong for that in my opinion. I still expect a landfall further north in Florida than the forecast, unfortunately.

Edit: Punta Gorda sounds about right... and we know what happened last year when Charlie got near Punta Gorda.

OK ok cool jet stream might be a factor. We're talking more massive radii here. I see a bit of topography and cooler waters in the gulf. I just don't see an abrupt turn. North hanging then NNE.

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Oct 22 2005 12:13 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

Quote:

HOLY crap, I had just this afternoon, just resolved myself that we were free and clear here in the St. Pete/Tampa area.

Never "free and clear" until the storm is passed.

Myles

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 12:13 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

It doesn't look as though it has turned. It may have stalled, or be creeping north. The eye contracting is also throwing the sense of movement off. We need to watch it longer to get a real sense of what it's doing. If it does keep the current movement(I think its barely moving north), then it looks like it may aviod landfall and could stay a cat 3 or even a minimal cat 4. Now it wont maintain that in its turn across the gulf, but a cat 3 isn't out of the picture if it stays off land.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Oct 22 2005 12:15 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

Quote:

yes it would seem wilma has decided she doesnt like cancun after all

If I hear one more weather man talk about how much Wilma is going to weaken significantly from spending so much time over land, I think I'm going to implode. Yes, it will weaken IF it spends ANY time over land... but... it's NOT OVER LAND. The eye is centered just to the north of Cozumel... and appears to be moving just east of due north. The next land mass it should encounter on this track is Florida. There is absolutely no evidence that the storm is currently moving northwest.... and there hasn't been any evidence of a westward component to the movement since it made landfall officially at Cozumel.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Oct 22 2005 12:17 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

Quote:

OK ok cool jet stream might be a factor. We're talking more massive radii here. I see a bit of topography and cooler waters in the gulf. I just don't see an abrupt turn. North hanging then NNE.

Meaning what, exactly, long-term? Where would that put landfall in Florida?

komi

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Oct 22 2005 12:17 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

will c in the morning where this going ... maybe is effeted by getting closer to land, or - is turn ... i hope i am wrong but looks to me like turn ...

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgeir3.html

(Weather Guru)

Sat Oct 22 2005 12:20 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

Is the LBAR always this stubborn with it's guidance.

Myles

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 12:20 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

Quote:

The eye is centered just to the north of Cozumel... and appears to be moving just east of due north. The next land mass it should encounter on this track is Florida. There is absolutely no evidence that the storm is currently moving northwest.... and there hasn't been any evidence of a westward component to the movement since it made landfall officially at Cozume

You correct on the first statement, its certainly not moving NW and hasen't made landfall. Cant say she is moving NE or even NNE either. The eye is shrinking and she is wobbling so to say it has made a turn is kinda pre-mature. We'll probably know what she is really doing in a couple of hours .

(Storm Chaser)

Sat Oct 22 2005 12:20 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

Well it looks like the town I lived in for 3 1/2 years (Playa Del Carmen) is gone.My heart goes out to all my good friends there.Paradise lost.Very sad,one of the coolest places on earth.

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Oct 22 2005 12:22 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

Just noticed that wunderground has moved the cone back into the Big Bend area. How far north do you think it could possibly go?

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 12:23 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

If you ask me it's slim to none this thing is going into the Yucatan.. back to preparing for (another) direct hit from a major 'cane here in Port Charlotte

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Oct 22 2005 12:23 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

Looks due North and then slightly West of North. Also, eye is getting smaller. However, with the close proximity if land, I don't think there will be any intensification.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Oct 22 2005 12:26 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

also i just noticed the storm is elongated from ne to sw quite a bit now
sorry for the 1 liner

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Oct 22 2005 12:26 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

Quote:

Looks due North and then slightly West of North. Also, eye is getting smaller. However, with the close proximity if land, I don't think there will be any intensification.

I see some wobbling west and/or east of due north periodically, but the overall motion appears to be a net due north.

There has been an update from the Key West NWS. Here's the significant part IMO:
A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER FOR ALL MOBILE HOME DWELLERS AND SPECIAL NEEDS
CLIENTS WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 6 AM EDT SATURDAY. MONROE COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL MAKE A DECISION REGARDING MANDATORY
EVACUATION FOR ALL KEYS RESIDENTS ON SATURDAY MORNING.

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Oct 22 2005 12:27 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

It's an "old" two dimensional model and is discounted a bit these days. And that's with good reasoning considering that the atmosphere is three dimensional (actually four when you throw in time as a dimension). Yeah, that hurts my head, too.

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Oct 22 2005 12:30 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

Definitely has a more northern component...

This recent wobble north is all that's needed near the florida coast to make a ft.myers landfall a sarasota landfall.

(Weather Guru)

Sat Oct 22 2005 12:32 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

Thanks....Why do they even consider using and posting it anymore????? Must have some validity I stress "SOME"
Thanks again for the response

StormDrain

(Registered User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 12:33 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

I've been telling my husband that I think it will be like the game pong once it gets to where it is now and not go across land. It looks like it may pan out. husband was shelter manager for years here in pinellas county. His thoughts are it will be north of pinellas county for land fall. Don't know if it's years of dealing with these or just his gut

StormHound

(Weather Guru)

Sat Oct 22 2005 12:33 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

I think we may be getting some land interaction here. I'm not so sure she is moving more north because of atmosphere, but becuase she doesn't want to hit land. This seems to happen more with the stronger storms, for some reason. Also depends upon angle of attack. Since Wilma is coming up kind of sideways, she's trying to skid around the land mass.

These, of course, are non-professional opinions.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Oct 22 2005 12:34 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

Quote:

Definitely has a more northern component...
This recent wobble north is all that's needed near the florida coast to make a ft.myers landfall a sarasota landfall.

Or a Tampa Bay landfall. While they may be wobbles... a wobble this close to land has a major impact on the damage zone. In this case, it also has a very major impact on the strength of Wilma, since it won't weaken as much if it doesn't stay over land as long - and won't weaken much at all if it does not make landfall on the mainland. The western edge of the eye is onshore... but the center has not made landfall yet. If it moves due north from the current position, Wilma will make landfall at Cancun overnight, but will immediately be back over water because it will be moving parallel to the coast.

(Moderator)

Sat Oct 22 2005 12:37 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

I'm with you, Hugh. They keep showing that this storm is going to go over the Yucatan Peninsula and weaken rapidly...at this point, IMHO, it would have to make a hard left turn to do that...and I don't see that coming. I haven't seen it all day. I even asked hubby to look and he said "NO WAY...it AIN'T going to happen".
I feel so very sorry for the people in Mexico that are being affected by this storm...the conditions must be absolutely hellacious. We spent 10 days in Cancun this past April, and if the hotels are getting hit so badly, I can only imagine what the conditions are for those who live in Playa Del Carmen. My prayers are certainly with them...
I heard earlier that Max Mayfield said that it's moving more "west" than "north"...I don't see that at all. Am I missing something?
I still think Florida's in for a surprise this coming weekend.

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Oct 22 2005 12:39 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

Well my point is... no matter what you think people need to be ready from tampa to miami... never know what will happen...

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 12:43 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

Quote:

Looks due North and then slightly West of North. Also, eye is getting smaller. However, with the close proximity if land, I don't think there will be any intensification.

Agreed but isn't this where the jet stream arrives? We've had more cloud cover earlier here than the Kat. Temp drop has been slower so it's gonna move. ...hopefully weakening as you predict

)

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Oct 22 2005 12:44 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

Quote:

I heard earlier that Max Mayfield said that it's moving more "west" than "north"...I don't see that at all. Am I missing something?
I still think Florida's in for a surprise this coming weekend.

I think Mayfield needs new glasses. The LAST image, however (0015z) DOES show a westward movement... so it's still wobbling.

(Moderator)

Sat Oct 22 2005 12:45 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

I know that they were calling for a reinstensification once it EXITED the Peninsula ... Denis Phillips said that about 100 times...but if what we are seeing is a trend, and I believe it is, than I wonder what that intensification will bring to Florida. It's going to be there whether it crosses over the peninsula or not, the question is: how much and what effect?

Flagler County Man

(Registered User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 12:46 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

howdy all -

My mother-in-law was staying at a resort/hotel in Riviera Maya and she called a few days ago saying they were evacuating her 300 miles west inland to a university...anybody have any knowledge of where this might be? Also, last few wobbles appear to be west??

komi

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Oct 22 2005 12:46 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

Looking this last frame, seems like is a wobble .. ? What you guys think ?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

(Moderator)

Sat Oct 22 2005 12:47 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

Quote:

Just noticed that wunderground has moved the cone back into the Big Bend area. How far north do you think it could possibly go?

I'm quoting you as there was some question as to preparations and possible Target Areas early this morning.

The 3 Day Cone Now (5pm EDT-Friday) Includes ALL of the Southern TWO-THIRDS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. This is basically EVERYONE South of a Brooksville/Cedar Key Line to Titusville/ Kennedy Space Center Line.

The following Hurr. Local Statement was issued by the Key West NWS Office about 12 minutes ago.
HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
830 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005
(edited~danielw)

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT HOMES AND BUSINESSES. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ENCOURAGES RESIDENTS VOLUNTARILY TO EVACUATE. THE SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY REMAINS OPEN TO ACCEPT RESIDENT EVACUEES. EVACUATING RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO SEEK SHELTER NORTH OF ORLANDO IF THEY CHOOSE NOT TO STAY AT THE
DESIGNATED SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY...

A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER FOR ALL MOBILE HOME DWELLERS AND SPECIAL NEEDS
CLIENTS WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 6 AM EDT SATURDAY. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL MAKE A DECISION REGARDING MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL KEYS RESIDENTS ON SATURDAY MORNING.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 12:49 AM

Re: Looks like a stall *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

(Moderator)

Sat Oct 22 2005 12:52 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

Yes, I've been seeing wobbles all day...but nothing to suggest a trend to the wnw. I'm not saying he's incorrect, maybe it will still happen, but it hasn't happened so far and I heard that at 2pm. This storm is so strong, that it may be trying to keep itself together and just keep bouncing off the land...wouldn't that be typical of a storm? Take the path of least resistance. I think that's what she's doing. It's not like she's going through the mountains of central Cuba.
Hm. Another day of watching, waiting, watching, waiting. I think it's going to just graze the coast and then move into the GOM.
It's getting closer, so it's getting more interesting.

DebbiePSL

(Weather Guru)

Sat Oct 22 2005 12:52 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

Quote:

Quote:

I heard earlier that Max Mayfield said that it's moving more "west" than "north"...I don't see that at all. Am I missing something?
I still think Florida's in for a surprise this coming weekend.

I think Mayfield needs new glasses. The LAST image, however (0015z) DOES show a westward movement... so it's still wobbling.

I think we all should know by now we can't watch every little wobble. It will drive everyone insane. I appreciate all the important info here but I personally tend to go with Max Mayfield since he is the pro with many years of experience. If he is wrong then it will be corrected in a timely manner. The NHC has done a good job so far this season and I see no reason to question their ability now

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Oct 22 2005 12:56 AM

Re: Looks like a stall *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

MikeC

(Admin)

Sat Oct 22 2005 12:57 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

I know the tendancy is for everyone to jump on the apparant northerly motion, and the models. But I'm not convinced. REally until the storm enters the Gulf, conjecture anywhere along the coast probably belongs in the forecast lounge. but I'm thinking that it will still make landfall on the mainland of the Yucatan, and likely stall out over that part. To think otherwise would require a few hours of trends rather than a disrupted eyewall and wobbles.

So it's a bit early to claim it will miss the Yucatan. (I don't believe it will miss)

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 12:58 AM

Re: Looks like a stall *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

hard to believe that when a storm goes 7 miles north and the eye has shunk so it does not look to have moved west and right away that means tampa

when if you think about it that is less west so less north it has to go when it goes NE.

But anyway its not going fast anywhere at this moment its not moving.

weatherwatcher2

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 01:00 AM

Re: Looks like a stall *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

new gfdl !! http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-...;hour=Animation

stormchazer

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Oct 22 2005 01:02 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

I agree Mike. I of course am concerned with an approach closer to Tampa, but I think we need more then just one run before we start thinking its coming further North. Its the same as a yesterday (or was it Wed?) when the models went nuts and everyone started thinking it was Mitch reborn. Lets wait for a few more model runs.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Oct 22 2005 01:02 AM

Re: Looks like a stall *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

I'm starting to think there really is some misalignment in the floater. In the 0015z image, Wilma movement almost due west. In the 0045 image, it moved back to where it was in the 2345z image, for a net zero movement.

ThirdRay

(Registered User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 01:02 AM

Re: Looks like a stall *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Oct 22 2005 01:05 AM

Re: Looks like a stall *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

eh new gfdl is much northern...... then it's previous track

iuhoosiers

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 01:07 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

AFTER SEEING THE NEW GFDL MODELS, ARE THOSE CAT 3 WINDS EFFECTING N. BROWARD COUNTY ALL THE WAY UP PAST BREVARD?????????

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 01:10 AM

Re: Looks like a stall *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

The new GDFL is a little more north but the eye is so huge in that run as it gets to the coast makes it look to cover Ft Myers to the Port.

Look at the largeness if the eye as it gets to the coast hence the more looking north of the Model but that model is on Weather Underground if you want to get a better look at it.

(Weather Guru)

Sat Oct 22 2005 01:11 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

It appears the gfdl does not weaken as before. Also does not stall it. It continues to move it across tip of yucatan and out into gom. probably why there is not much weakening in this model run

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Oct 22 2005 01:13 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

as the storm moves closer and closer and then into the GOM we will start to get better and better runs off the models until they prob come into agreement and we can all know approx. where in fl this woman is gonna come ashore. i look forward to more model runs through the night and all day tomorrow
peace

iuhoosiers

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 01:19 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

ALL THE MODELS ARE LOOK TO BE BETWEEN SARASOTA AND KEY WEST, WHICH PUTS NAPLES IN THE MIDDLE. HOW ABOUT THE UKMET MODEL, THAT IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT BRUSHES THE YUCATAN, THIS MODEL'S PATH COULD BE RIGHT. REMEMBER THE HIGHEST WINDS FOR THIS STORM IS GOING TO BE AT AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

(Moderator)

Sat Oct 22 2005 01:19 AM

GFDL

Since the GFDL has come up in the discussion.
All of the following assumption, ideas are based on the 18Z GFDL Model alone.

Notice two things about the 18Z run.
116kts prior to landfall and 104-106 after passing over the Peninsula.

This mean a CAT 2-3 over the Peninsula.
The last run of the GFDL indicates...AT THAT TIME, the Eye would pass NORTH of Lake Okeechobee.

This would be very similar to the Charley-'04 track but at not such a steep angle. This forecast track would place the Center off of the East FL Coast between Melbourne and Ft Pierce.

Now that's based on the 18Z GFDL Model. 50/ 50 chance of that track.~danielw

EMS

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 01:20 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Am I missing something, or does it appear that Wilma is rapidly degenerating? Cloud tops are warming; eye may be opening to the NW.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Oct 22 2005 01:22 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

heres a look at the 18 z runs and the consensus at the top and some 12z

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/compare/05102118/M5.html

DeLandT

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 01:23 AM

Re: Looks like a stall *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

I agree and disagree. Tampa is a central location as easily to plot. I spent the last 4 years on the east coast and basically I felt the same way... I lived in New Smyrna Beach for the first two years and then the last two years where spent in Deland. I purchased a home in Deland and never thought a storm would make a direct impact. Charlie proved us wrong....... Then every storm that hit florida seemed to hover overhead and take out anything that was left standing. People are scared and there are some here that have never been in this situation that like to voice their opinions and make people jump.... or react badly. This is the reality of the internet.....
Here is the reality of the storm....
It may or may not hit Tampa. It may or may not hit Sarasota. It may or may not hit Punta Gorda......
It is too early too tell and all we can do is make predictions, everyone is entitled to their own opinion, it is your job to decifier whom you choose to beleive.... If you feel you and your family may be in danger, then leave. Dont let anyone tell you otherwise, If you feel you want to wait, do so but if someone offers you a ride out of the cone, take it....
I am an IT Director and my job is to ensure that our data is offsite and safe in situations like this. Many times that means telling my family to go and I will catch up with them later, sometimes they think I am crying wolf. There is no crying wolf when a hurricane is approaching.....
Amazingly all of the ideas that were thrown around months ago that cost money seem like a good deal.
Why take a chance with your life ..? This storm may weaken and then she may pick back up. I am not going to put my family in a situation where we try out the new florida building codes. I want them out of the area altogether safe and sound. We can rebuild our house, we cannot rebuild our home with the loss of life.....
BTW I live in Sarasota now......

Ron Basso

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Oct 22 2005 01:25 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Boy, I know its only one model run, but the 18Z GFDL is scary for Sarasota County residents. A CAT 3 storm with 120 mph winds smashing into Venice in 66-72 hrs. I don't like the trend in the models shifting north. It started with the GFS on yesterdays runs and continues today. The NOGAPS has been on and off shifting its track between Tampa and Ft Myers. It looks as though the new models are picking up on a slightly more amplified trough which would move Wilma more NE rather than E-NE. If I look where Wilma has traveled the last 6 hours and where she is likely to go, the new GFDL seems to have it pretty close, with just a short run over the NE tip of the YP. All I've heard from the local TV METs and CNN too is that this storm is gonna weaken considerably over the YUC and only be a CAT 1 by the time it gets to FL. Right now, that doesn't look to pan out. There could be surprised people in Tampa tomorrow if the models and Wilma trend even slightly more northward.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Oct 22 2005 01:26 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

I think that is more of a result of the interaction with the land mass. Yes, there is some weakening happening. That is expected.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 01:27 AM

Re: GFDL

Quote:

Since the GFDL has come up in the discussion.
All of the following assumption, ideas are based on the 18Z GFDL Model alone.

Notice two things about the 18Z run.
116kts prior to landfall and 104-106 after passing over the Peninsula.

This mean a CAT 2-3 over the Peninsula.
The last run of the GFDL indicates...AT THAT TIME, the Eye would pass NORTH of Lake Okeechobee.

This would be very similar to the Charley-'04 track but at not such a steep angle. This forecast track would place the Center off of the East FL Coast between Melbourne and Ft Pierce.

Now that's based on the 18Z GFDL Model. 50/ 50 chance of that track.~danielw

I rest my case. I see said the blind person worried about Melbourne. BUT it will be ok. I have no doubt.

MissBecky

(Weather Guru)

Sat Oct 22 2005 01:28 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Lee County has issued mandatory evacuations beginning Saturday at noon for mobile homes and all the barrier islands, which includes Captiva, Sanibel and Ft. Myers Beach. With more models trending northward, I'm starting to get a very very bad feeling about this.

(Weather Master)

Sat Oct 22 2005 01:28 AM

Re: GFDL

We have the start of a trend in the models; but too soon to think that the models have locked onto something. i am always fascinated by the frictional effects of a coastline on a slow moving storm. Almost seems like drift to the north is from rotational frictional effect. going to be an interesting 12-24 hours. The GFDL does concern me, though. Still waiting to see.

WXMAN RICHIE

(Weather Master)

Sat Oct 22 2005 01:31 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

I agree Ron, our local mets started the evening news with, " We have great news, the storm will effect us in a much weakened state(only a cat 1 or TS)". They actually said it was going to spend 36 hours over the Yucatan.

(Moderator)

Sat Oct 22 2005 01:35 AM

Forecasts

There are two kinds of Forecasts.

The one the Hurricane Center produces, and the ones that you occasionally get from the local TV Mets.

The echo of the 'weakening' is the correct thing to do right now. As it goes along with the NHC/TPC Forecast.
For a Media Met to go off track too far would be similar to Career Suicide.

We saw this last year, and we will continue to see it. Until something changes.

They All try to One Up the other guy. Whether in the studio in front of a ChromaKey or standing in 75mph winds trying to tell us to stay inside.

Please stick to the NHC Forecast and your Local NWS Office Forecast. As they know the local climatology and conditions. Not to mention the fact that they Are the Official Forecsters.

Margie

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Oct 22 2005 01:39 AM

Re: Looks like a stall *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

OK...let's try this a third time.

Will you guys stop with the wobbling, the northerly motion, etc.

The hurricane is simply oscillating along the (curved) track, which can be clearly seen by the satellite images. And, it is totally on the forecast points.

So...go to the floater, select the wv loop, select the 1845Z image. Now, zoom in a couple times on the eye. Locate a point on the western side, just north of due west, about 300deg (just below where the eyewall stops touching the Yucatan peninsula. Now, move forward four more frames, and watch the rotation of the eye around this point on the eyewall. That's an oscillation. Go back and forth over those five frames and you'll see it better.

Now, zoom out to verify you are at frame 2045Z. Zoom back in. The point of rotation now moves up to just a fraction above the previous one, just above where the SW eyewall stops touching the Yucatan peninsula. Again, move forward four more frames, backward and forward, and now you see that oscillation.

Now you're at 2245Z. This time, the rotation is around the westmost point where the eye meets the Yucatan peninsula (because these oscillations are occuring on a curve, not a straight line). Now move forward three frames, and back, and you can see the third oscillation (up to frame 0015Z).

Sorry but typed in wrong starting point...1815Z is at the end of the prev osc.

funky

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 01:40 AM

Re: Looks like a stall *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

oh ****, seriously i have been waiting for that turn westward and its not happening. i guess my wife and i are headed to the grocery store tomorrow! time to batten down the hatches here in 34202

Quote:

new gfdl !! http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-...;hour=Animation

vvvteddybearvvv

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Oct 22 2005 01:41 AM

chat room

please rember that the chat room is open for discussion of wilma to get their go to http://irc.flhurricane.com/

thanks

also would be nice to see this on the main page

it's on the left side bar of all of the forum pages.~danielw

(Weather Master)

Sat Oct 22 2005 01:41 AM

Re: Forecasts

I will add one thing. It is not usually good for a TV Met to stray from the official. However, I do think it is not wrong for a met to say that it is a very uncertain forecast. Especially since that has been implied by the NHC itself. Sometimes I think the local mets forget to mention that last part. that may be more of wanting to sound authoratative. Sounding unsure is not a good idea in the TV news business.

GuppieGrouper

(Weather Master)

Sat Oct 22 2005 01:41 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

We are hearing in our area that the storm will be a lesser category when it hits Florida but that the Category system will be misleading because of possible interaction with the cold front creating more tornados and more storm damage than the apparent typical category one storm would cause. I am reminded also that when there are no particular conditions guiding or forcing the storm along, it will move poleward due to gravitational influences and physics, I think more of it as being like a compass trying to always point north no matter which way the compass is pointed. If we think about that the only other hold up is the unknown amount of time it will take to move to its next point of impact after it leaves the Yucatan peninsula. I know I read that the schools in Polk County will be closed Monday,. Hopefully it will serve as a gasoline saving measure even if the weather conditions do not warrant the closure. As usual in the tropics, the weather is more interesting than anything on Television. One other point of note, I do not see any one putting away Halloween decorations., If the word does not get out that it is not over for Florida yet, we are going to have many, many headless horsemen, flying pumpkins, and gremlins than anyone ever thought.,

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Oct 22 2005 01:43 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Quote:

I agree Ron, our local mets started the evening news with, " We have great news, the storm will effect us in a much weakened state(only a cat 1 or TS)".

Not getting that here. In fact, they are saying that even if the forecast track and intensity verifies, the Tampa Bay area will still have gale and TS force winds on Sunday night into Monday due to the expanding wind field and the pressure gradient between Wilma and the approaching cold front.

Steve H1

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Oct 22 2005 01:49 AM

Re: GFDL

Remeber though that the GFDL model uses source data from the GFS. The GFS has been fairly consistent the last 3 runs, with the last run being the furthest north and the deepest. It has Wilma making landfall at hour 66. Cheers!!

El Gringo Viejo

(Registered User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 01:51 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

Flagler County Man posted: My mother-in-law was staying at a resort/hotel in Riviera Maya and she called a few days ago saying they were evacuating her 300 miles west inland to a university...anybody have any knowledge of where this might be?

My best guess would be Merida (capital of Yucatan state) but possibly as far as Campeche (capital of Campeche state). Both are well away from the storm track. And both are nice places, in case she has to pass a few days there. You're fortunate they evacuated her that far away.

Regards

G.V.

emackl

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Oct 22 2005 01:52 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

"We are hearing in our area that the storm will be a lesser category when it hits Florida but that the Category system will be misleading because of possible interaction with the cold front creating more tornados and more storm damage than the apparent typical category one storm would cause."

That is my biggest fear. I am on the east side so I know there will be weakening by the time it comes over but tornados scare the crap out of me. Many people forget about that threat.

BobVee

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 01:53 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Schools will close even in TS conditions because school busses are not allowed to operate in winds greater than 35mph.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Oct 22 2005 01:54 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

I still don't understand what models some of you folks are looking at?! I read a few posts about models trending north - when? I checked the models and they still have the system near Naples, Fla. Oh, not that this means anything, but someone said something about Cozumel being "30 miles east of Cancun". This is incorrect. Look at a map and you'll see that Cozumel is South-Southeast of Cancun...actually, it's almost South of there. Thirty miles east would put the little island in the Yucatan Channel.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Oct 22 2005 01:58 AM

Re: Forecasts

Whats up with Accuweather? Their forecast is always different from everyone else's. I don't even see them trending with the NHC too much, except storm location and current winds. They have Wilma going over extreme south fla as a cat 1.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 02:04 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

It seems there has been a lot of staring at the radar and satellite images and speculating about the various wobbles that we usually have on the boards, but once again I am siding with the folks looking at the big picture -- I think we can all agree that NHC is correct in slowing the motion of Wilma down and regardless of whether the eye is over the Yucatan or not this will result in weakening as more of the heat is extracted from the same sea surfaces and the Western part of the storm is over land

Then we wait -- as has been pointed out by many over and over this season -- remember Ophelia with all the starts and stops -- when the storms aren't moving prediction of timing and track is the least accurate. When the storm moves far enough N to be picked up by the westerlies we will have a much better idea of exactly which portion of the W Florida coast will be under the gun.

'Til then everyone should be getting ready to deal with the worst without a lot of panic

MissBecky

(Weather Guru)

Sat Oct 22 2005 02:04 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Damian, I use the spaghetti models here:

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/index.htm

If you click on Frame 2 it shows the 0000 guidance. Frame 4 is the earlier 1800 guidance. You can see a northward shift in several of the models. And this has been happening all day.

WXMAN RICHIE

(Weather Master)

Sat Oct 22 2005 02:05 AM

Cuban Radar Available

The Cuban radar is up and running. Mike, you probably need to mirror it for us.

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB...(Animacion).gif

(Moderator)

Sat Oct 22 2005 02:05 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

That would have been me, sorry for the geographical error. Having just been to Playa del Carmen and Cozumel, I know that I had to travel NORTH of Playa del Carmen to get a ferry to go to Cozumel. I may have been off in the exact direction, but it is about 30 miles away from Cancun....if you've never been there, it can be quite confusing, as Playa del Carmen is about 45-60 minutes south of Cancun Airport.
Thanks for correcting my error.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 02:08 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Noticed something in this latest GFDL http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-...;hour=Animation
It has Wilma go way inland on the Yucatan and weaken significantly on an initial track that looks like it will not verify. Then reintensify significantly before taking a track into FL near Boca Grande and then Punta Gorda.

Anyone have an explination for the reintensification (when nhc was calling for weakening earlier) or effects of a less deep trip into the Yucatan as far as track and intensity is concerned?

GuppieGrouper

(Weather Master)

Sat Oct 22 2005 02:08 AM

Re: Forecasts

Accuweather relies on Global models and private weather contractors as well. They would not be able to sell their product if they did not offer something different than the publicly funded NHC. But, the accuracy is always up to the mother nature.

engicedave

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 02:10 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

and if you look at those models MissBecky pointed out, the midline is the same as the NHC forecast track

Seems silly to concentrate on any one model or line

tashina

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 02:12 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Was just listening to Chad on CNN. He was saying that the storm will weaken over land, strengthen over water. That part I understand. Then he said right now it's half-on, half-off. I'm not sure if he's talking about the eye or the whole hurricane. Just wondering, what is considered on land as far as weakening. Does the eye have to be onshore? If it's sitting like it is currently with the eye right offshore - say it does this for 24 hours. Is that a position that will cause it to strengthen or weaken?

(Weather Master)

Sat Oct 22 2005 02:13 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Could very welll be the GFDL overplaying the reintensification. It has been known to spin things up too quickly. However, if mos t of the inner core remains intact, I am not going to rule out that such a reintensification is possible. Just unlikely that it gets up that much, IMHO.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 02:14 AM

Re: Forecasts

J Bastardi likes to be a maverick in some ways --- but don't discount his opinion. HE likes to be aggressive and make a forecast before everyone else --- sometimes they are seemingly prescient and sometimes way off --remember back to Nate earlier this year.

One way to think about it is that NHC reviews multiple computer models, the most recent data from observations and tries to pull out the best consensus -- when the models make a big jump they usually split the difference between the new data and their last forecast.

If accuweather sees a jump, the next forecast goes with the jump --all the way.

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Oct 22 2005 02:15 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

It will still weaken as much of the circulation (the western side) will be over land. Physics - friction.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 02:16 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

Quote:

If you ask me it's slim to none this thing is going into the Yucatan.. back to preparing for (another) direct hit from a major 'cane here in Port Charlotte

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/FLT/T2/AVN_loop.html

Sure looks like the center of the eye is just about on land only 1 hr 40 minutes later. remind me never to make forecasts

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 02:17 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Well the GDFL has never been real good with Str of the system.To me the GDFL looks like it has it going to FT Myers is that correct? looks like it to me.

(Weather Guru)

Sat Oct 22 2005 02:18 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

It looks to be elongating . Is this from shearing or interaction with land?

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Oct 22 2005 02:19 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

***ALL MANATEE COUNTY RESIDENTS***

Tune to Channel 20...they have local information for Manatee County on there inlcuding info about incorrect evac maps printed in todays Bradenton Herald. Channel 20......all the info you need for Manatee County.

Mods can delete this if they choose, but please allow for a little while so others can see. Thank You!

komi

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Oct 22 2005 02:19 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Well, i think all computer models will give us more acurate models after Wima get offsore ... Until now, and for now, is all just prediction after some what not going to happen - Yucatan landfall ...

This mean, we have to wait until tomorrow ...

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 02:22 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Not so much friction in low lying areas like the Yucatan - More the loss of ability to extract energy from water. It is the heat from the warm ocean water evaporating that gets released when the water rises in the exceptionally high cloud tops of a warm core storm that drives the engine. If a big chunk of the circulation sucking in the warm wet air is over land it is cutting off that fraction of its fuel.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Oct 22 2005 02:23 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

MISS BECKY - I checked frame 4 on spaghetti models and as of 1800 UTC on the 21st, today, the only model significantly north is LBAR. The others are still at Ft. Myers or Southward....Could it be they are further north than previous when they were extreme south fla, like Naples and southward? Perhaps the shift north is from that point to Ft. Myers. I could be wrong. Please correct me!!!!

(Weather Guru)

Sat Oct 22 2005 02:26 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Let me know if these are the steering currents for this storm.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html
I am NO GOOD at posting links so if it does not come up, someone please give me instructions on how to do this.
Looks like the storm is practically squeezed between 2 pressure systems which will allow it to move in a more North direction... I am sooo untrained, please correct me if I am wrong:)
Christine,
St. Pete :shocked

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 02:27 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

11 appears to be out at wunderground already
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200524.html

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 02:28 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Also take a look at the core of winds the GFDL predicts -- all basically S of the center for the destructive winds on the present run

My only point is that it is not necessarily where the center hits that is the worst of the storm -- when travelling ENE and moving forward fairly rapidly -- as Wilma is predicted to be at Fl landfall-- the worst of the storm will be SE eyewall.

MissBecky

(Weather Guru)

Sat Oct 22 2005 02:29 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Quote:

MISS BECKY - I checked frame 4 on spaghetti models and as of 1800 UTC on the 21st, today, the only model significantly north is LBAR. The others are still at Ft. Myers or Southward....Could it be they are further north than previous when they were extreme south fla, like Naples and southward? Perhaps the shift north is from that point to Ft. Myers. I could be wrong. Please correct me!!!!

Yes, that is exactly what I have seen. Since I live in Ft. Myers, I have been watching closely over the past few days to see how close the overall guidance has come to my location. For the past two days most of the models were pointing southward, to Naples and Collier County. Beginning today I began to see more of a trend to move northward. But that is just my interpretation of what I'm seeing...standard disclaimer applies, I am not a met.

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Oct 22 2005 02:32 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Quote:

11 appears to be out at wunderground already
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200524.html

oddly even though the computer models and the last track was above where it was before... they have it below look at where it crosses below lake o..... i don't get their forcasting i don't. heh everything is going north and they go south more? confusing

(Moderator)

Sat Oct 22 2005 02:33 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Quote:

Let me know if these are the steering currents for this storm.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html
Looks like the storm is practically squeezed between 2 pressure systems which will allow it to move in a more North direction... I am sooo untrained, please correct me if I am wrong:)
Christine,

Use this for Wilma...deeper central pressure.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 02:33 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

For large storms like Wilma steering is mostly the upper atmospheric winds -- The storm itself commandeers the lower surface levels -- which makes it bad for us who have to live on the surface.

(Weather Master)

Sat Oct 22 2005 02:35 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Quote:

oddly even though the computer models and the last track was above where it was before... they have it below look at where it crosses below lake o..... i don't get their forcasting i don't. heh everything is going north and they go south more? confusing

Looks like a "no change" forecast. It was just south of the Big O before. Might as well wait and see if there is continuing trend before changing the forecast. No warnings are up yet, so still have plenty of time.

(Moderator)

Sat Oct 22 2005 02:35 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Radar outage is over for now. With a 3 hour gap, I decided to momentarily let go of the 4 and 6 hour points. Note how close the last two points are? That's as far as she's moved in the last 3 hours. Definitely dragging her heels, this one. What's in the GOM that she's so scared of?

(Moderator)

Sat Oct 22 2005 02:36 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

I think...and anyone here with more info than I have can correct me..that the models have their information put in about 6 hours prior to their output, so the info may be old.
As far as the reintensification, that was forecasted tonight (at least by my local stations) at 6pm. They said it would "weaken significantly" after it's trek across the Yucatan but "reintensify" once it entered the GOM again. I don't really have a good explanation for that reasoning, though. They didn't really explain "why", if you know what I mean.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 02:39 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Much as being slow is bad for the Yucatan - it is OK by me here in FL - I hope she emerges in the Gulf in a much weakened state

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 02:42 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Data input for the various model runs varies some -- In general if the Model is run every 6 hours the oldest data input can be is 6 hours (just after the last run) but it can be very recent -- With modern supercomputers the runs don't actually take long to produce

(Meteorologist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 02:43 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

There will be a window of opportunity for Wilma to reintenisfy over the Gulf IF its inner core is still relatively intact after possibly being over land for awhile. If the inner core is too disrupted then that won't happen. Whatever it reintensifies to in the Gulf, it will likely weaken a little again from that as it approaches Florida, because of an increasingly unfavorable upper-level environment, though the GFDL suggests otherwise. Because of an increase in forward speed, the max winds may tend to increase on the southern side of the system as it approaches Florida, while decreasing on the northern side.

susieq

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Oct 22 2005 02:45 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Any ideas as to why Pensacola's chance of having this hurricane jumped from a five to a ten percent chance? I mean -- no way, right?

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Oct 22 2005 02:46 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

because the time horizon is now smaller. all the percentages went up.

plus it is the chance of the "CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES"
not a direct hit.

(Moderator)

Sat Oct 22 2005 02:52 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Using the Radar image above..thanks, Tpratch.

From present position to the GOM Beach, following the Purple Line. 65nm or 12-13 hours at 5 kts.

Using the last two Points, to the GOM Beach.
55nm or 11 hours at 5 kts.

Noon Tomorrow at the current track and speed. Before Wilma's Center is over the GOM. Give or take an hour and a few miles.

(Weather Guru)

Sat Oct 22 2005 02:53 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Most models trending North...Any comments?
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_24.gif

(Moderator)

Sat Oct 22 2005 02:54 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Grrr...

As soon as I posted that, a new radar image popped up. Her eye is oblong and she wobbled... WWSW... *sigh*

I'll scrap all but the 1hour trend until tomorrow morning and I might just be heading to bed.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 02:54 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Quote:

Using the Radar image above..thanks, Tpratch.

From present position to the GOM Beach, following the Purple Line. 65nm or 12-13 hours at 5 kts.

Using the last two Points, to the GOM Beach.
55nm or 11 hours at 5 kts.

Noon Tomorrow at the current track and speed. Before Wilma's Center is over the GOM. Give or take an hour and a few miles.

Only problem is present movement toward the north-northwest or 330 degrees at 3 kt

Its not going that fast

(Meteorologist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 02:56 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

The models that show the further north solution on that map are generally not reliable and not used for track guidance by NHC. The two models on that map that are cited by NHC in their discussions are the GFDL and the UKMET.

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Oct 22 2005 02:56 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Quote:

Most models trending North...Any comments?
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_24.gif

Will take 2-3 more computer runs before NHC would ever change the track. they are dead set on southern florida. I don't buy it to be honest.. Usually wherever they predict first is where it doesn't go. We'll see what happens though.

komi

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Oct 22 2005 02:56 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

What thay say on WC, after turn on the way to FLA, will be much faster moving storm, probably 25-30 mph over FLA, maybe more .. what will give us about 6 hours of strong wind ....

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Oct 22 2005 02:56 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Quote:

The models that show the further north solution on that map are generally not reliable and not used for track guidance by NHC. The two models on that map that are cited by NHC in their discussions are the GFDL and the UKMET.

gfdl is trending north now.

(Weather Guru)

Sat Oct 22 2005 02:58 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

But they (GFDL)are trending North of earlier tracks... Not "wishcasting" just noticing

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Oct 22 2005 03:01 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Quote:

But they (GFDL)are trending North of earlier tracks... Not "wishcasting" just noticing

i agree.. But really nobody knows, i don't think anything is definite on florida landfall.. still could be tampa or could be naples. there has been nothing shown yet on why it wouldn't go north or south... imo it's just relative to how far it goes north before the front influences it...

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Oct 22 2005 03:01 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

NHC forecast is still for landfall near Marco Island......no change.

(Meteorologist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 03:02 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Until this thing gets off of the Yucatan, there are probably going to be some fluctuations in the model tracks. Looks like Wilma is finally making its painfully slow move inland.

JMII

(Weather Master)

Sat Oct 22 2005 03:04 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Quote:

It looks to be elongating . Is this from shearing or interaction with land?

I noticed this too, I think it's a combination of shear and the squeeze play between the two high pressure areas the storm has been stuck in between for the last two days. This explains both the slow motion and excellent outflow. Now on IR image you can clearly see the western side of storm lossing it's colder cloud tops - I assume this is from interaction with the land. Hopefully this is start of the system lossing some it's power.

I was very shocked to hear the local mets forecasting a weaker storm, they almost never do that for fear of people letting down thier guard. All local info I've heard says: Cat 1, Monday afternoon landfall, near Ft. Myers, rapid NE motion across the state, right over Lake O. Effects to be very strong winds in SE quad because the hurricane force winds will be compounded by the forward speed of the storm (25+ mph). Also expect very wet conditions to the N of the track due to the interaction with the cold front coming down. I have no seen alot of info on this aspect, but people to the north should take note, your winds may be lighter but it's really going to drop alot of rain in a short period of time.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 03:10 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

2 points to think about future track --

1) As several recent posts have noted with just a tiny change in direction and change in speed of only 1 or 2 mph wilmas stay oveer the Yucatan could go from 6 or 7 hours to 17 or 18 --- that can translate into dramatic differences in storm strength in GOM. In terms of track - a stronger storm is more likely to push more N

2) The time and point the storm kind of re-initializes in the GOM will be very interesting because that right now is roughly the boundary of W steering flow --- and again small changes in the near future can translate to many miles down the road at US landfall

3rdGenFlaNative

(Registered User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 03:11 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Long time lurker, first time poster here. Can't tell you all how much I appreciate everyone here at this forum. I've been monitoring since mid-season last year (and what a year it was!). Feel like I've learned SO MUCH, and it's only made me eager for more info. In my quest to educate myself on this subject however, I just can’t seem to decipher all the numbers on some of the reports and technical images. Many of the contributors to this forum seem to have a solid working knowledge of the field, and I feel like I’m missing out on some of the data being used to form your opinions. Is anyone aware of a good, well-rounded source (preferably online) that provides basic explanation and instruction in understanding some of the more intricate tools? I’ve poked around on this site, and gathered much useful information, but haven’t found exactly what I’m looking for. If it is here and I’ve missed it, please forgive me, and thank you for all the help!

I’m in Lakeland with husband & kids, have a father in a mobile home in Lake Wales, and a nephew in Port Charlotte. We all got our fill of hurricanes last year and, as you can imagine, are watching Wilma closely. We are as prepared as we can be, but this waiting is maddening! And it seems that whatever we might hope for in sparing still-shellshocked Floridians from more trauma only causes even greater devastation to someone else! I’m very concerned for our neighbors in Cozumel. Can’t get them off my mind.

Hurricane watching is most definitely addictive, IF you can handle the emotional roller-coaster! It's difficult to reconcile all the feelings you experience as you watch these storms develop – the beauty and thrill of watching nature at it’s most powerful, coupled with the anxiety and concern that build when you realize that soon someone’s life (maybe yours or someone you love!) will be forever changed.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Oct 22 2005 03:14 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

the eye is shrinking and becoming ragged
link
link 2

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 03:15 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Good place to start is at NHC website

Hurricane Hunter data translation can be found here

http://www.hurricanehunters.com/recco.htm

jjj

(Registered User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 03:18 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

I believe the TWC has been a joke all afternoon. They better get their people out of Key West and head north if they want a story. The new strike probabilities for Cedar Key are as great as that of Key West. Dr. Steve Lyons at 4:00 PM had this storm over the peninsula of Mexico for an amazing 36 hours and all but reaching south Florida as a cat 1 at best. This storm will be in the GOM before noon tomorrow and headed in the direction of Sarasota/Tampa if not further North as a cat 2 or 3. I am not a met (most of them have been clueless also) but I am a 47 year native of Florida and a long time mariner. I was raised reading a radar and know that this spinner will defy the odds. Charley was Tampa's storm 24 hours out and ended up in Punta Gorda. Rita was headed into Houston and ended up on the East Texas border. Wilma will keep the "experts" guessing all the way to the end. And when it is over, and she goes everywhere but where they had thought, the Monday morning quarterbacking will begin.....

Multi-Decadal Signal

(Weather Guru)

Sat Oct 22 2005 03:18 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

11:00 discussion finaly out

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/220259.shtml

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 03:18 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

More importantly notice bands of heavy convection have decreased dramatically in all quadrants

(Weather Guru)

Sat Oct 22 2005 03:20 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

dont think it is shrinking as much as beginning to fill in. Sign of weakening.

LSUFAN

(Registered User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 03:22 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

All the forecasts are so focused on the westerlies taking Wilma to Florida. Is there any chance at all of the westerlies not doing this and Wilma continuing north/northwest?

(Moderator)

Sat Oct 22 2005 03:23 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Quote:

11:00 discussion finaly out

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THE CENTER WILL CROSS FLORIDA...ALL
INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF WILMA AND MAKE APPROPRIATE PREPARATIONS.

Notice He said " The Florida Peninsula "

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 03:23 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

I don't think NHC focuses on any particular site 72 hours out -- The media certainly gets much more 'juice' out of a landfall in a major city

Biggest issue is logistics -- evacuating a major city -- Miami, Houston, NO is much more exciting to the media and unfortunately occasionally they do get hit and damage is more intense due to more people being in harms way

3rdGenFlaNative

(Registered User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 03:26 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

I checked out that link, Satellite Steve - exactly what I was looking for. Thanks so much. Hopefully the distraction will make the time pass faster until Wilma decides to get moving.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 03:28 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

No not really

As soon as Wilma gets far enough N all the flow is W to E now and basic physics is going to keep pushing her N into this stream

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 03:31 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Quote:

I believe the TWC has been a joke all afternoon. They better get their people out of Key West and head north if they want a story. The new strike probabilities for Cedar Key are as great as that of Key West. Dr. Steve Lyons at 4:00 PM had this storm over the peninsula of Mexico for an amazing 36 hours and all but reaching south Florida as a cat 1 at best. This storm will be in the GOM before noon tomorrow and headed in the direction of Sarasota/Tampa if not further North as a cat 2 or 3. I am not a met (most of them have been clueless also) but I am a 47 year native of Florida and a long time mariner. I was raised reading a radar and know that this spinner will defy the odds. Charley was Tampa's storm 24 hours out and ended up in Punta Gorda. Rita was headed into Houston and ended up on the East Texas border. Wilma will keep the "experts" guessing all the way to the end. And when it is over, and she goes everywhere but where they had thought, the Monday morning quarterbacking will begin.....

All i can say about this post is Gotta love snow as its coming early.

(Weather Guru)

Sat Oct 22 2005 03:31 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Will we get some new model runs soon?

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Oct 22 2005 03:33 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Quote:

Dr. Steve Lyons at 4:00 PM had this storm over the peninsula of Mexico for an amazing 36 hours and all but reaching south Florida as a cat 1 at best.

and so did the NHC.

Weather changes constantly, and they give their best report of what they see at that time, which is why the reports update several times a day.

PS - the NHC called the East Texas landfall at 10AM CDT Thursday the 22nd....1 1/2 days before landfall.
link

but they called a "Houston area" landfall a few 5 days head of time.
link 2

but of course, you're focusing on the cone and not the line......right????

DeLandT

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 03:34 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Its nice to finally know what is going to happen. By the way what is the winning lottery ticket numbers for tomorrow night?

(Weather Guru)

Sat Oct 22 2005 03:34 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

WELCOME
I hear what your saying...we'll see. Thanks for posting

pincty

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Oct 22 2005 03:35 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Good post Sat. Steve. That little wobble to the South in the last two frames may be enough to keep it in the Yucatan for a while longer. That would be great news for Florida.

(Moderator)

Sat Oct 22 2005 03:39 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Hmmm...that sounds to me as if they are beginning to look more closely at the models that have been trending it more northerly (is that a word?) the last few days. They had been saying "ANYWHERE FROM CEDAR KEY TO THE FLORIDA KEYS". Sayint the ENTIRE peninsula is something different.
However, as you look at the radar link, now it DOES look as though it may begin its trek across the Yucatan Peninsula ..although at a NNW @ 3mph, it still may just graze the coast.
Did anyone else notice on that radar how it looked like Cozumel was gonna get another punch?

komi

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Oct 22 2005 03:42 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Right, all we are looking now for "deep and long" landfall on Yucatan, what is better for Fla, but bad for Yucatan ...

I am trying to remind you, when hurr move offshore, all we will get better picture whats goin on ... All models and predictions will be adjusted until hurr get closer to Fla ..

tenavilla

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 03:44 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

The only problem I've had with TWC today is that their cone is much, much smaller than the NHC's. The NHC's 3-day cone goes well north of Tampa, but TWC's cone stops near Sarasota/Bradenton. Too many people watch TWC to get storm information and their graphic is very misleading.

HanKFranK

(User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 03:44 AM

little jog, big implications

i'm surprised the nhc didn't revise their disco really quickly before sending it out. wilma has lurched w-sw in the last couple of hours, and this subtle twitch and diversion is likely to add to the time over land. if the nw movment doesn't resume soon expect a ts/cat 1 range storm coming off the north yucatan tomorrow evening. if it does, cat 1/2 during the late afternoon instead.
once over the gulf for 12 hrs or so the storm should begin to reintensify slowly, unless the inner core is completely messed up. it can regain a category or two sunday/early monday as it nears florida. going to keep with the fort myers area as my bullseye, with the range from sarasota to chokoloskee. no keys, i'm thinking.. not that they won't get some nasty weather regardless. i'm not sure why the nhc is killing the intensity as much as it is over florida and off the east coast. they're either overusing ships or discarding the idea that the storm will begin to acquire baroclinic characteristics and deepen that way. i don't see why it won't... nao is still really freakin negative, and there's plenty of high latitude blocking.. this is the sort of pattern that encourages such things. if gfdl wasn't showing a sub-950mb system zipping up towards maine every other run i'd probably let this idea go, but i'm not about to as things stand.
the mexican government is really good about evacuating folks, and even though this is a really wicked hurricane there probably won't be many fatalities. on the other hand damage to the cozumel/cancun area has got to be pretty extensive. having a category 4 hurricane sit overhead all day can do that.
that invest 99L seems to have it's stuff together pretty well, but hispaniola figures in its future.. and beyond that it'll be closer to wilma (though the upper environment east of the bahamas looks ok. this little system might squeeze out a named storm, but it's going to be iffy. puerto rico radar shows what looks like a closed circulation right at the convective blow up near 15/65... visibles tomorrow morning might show a depression.
pattern going into the future is looking kinda static--deep trough in the east, mid level and upper ridge centered north of the eastern caribbean. result: waves coming underneath find a favorable environment to act up. there's also the issue of the surface high pressure persisting in the east, which favors synoptically lower pressure over the caribbean. gfs keeps wavering on the when/where (the current system goes up, then there appears to be something acting up in the western caribbean later next week... and something else which may be related moving into the eastern caribbean around then as well). pretty sure we're talking greek letter system(s) before the month is out. early november continues the pattern.
tsfh jr rolls on.
HF 0344z22october

jjj

(Registered User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 03:45 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

It did out West. Good call.

jjj

(Registered User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 03:49 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Snow did come early out West last week. Great call.

(Moderator)

Sat Oct 22 2005 03:50 AM

Models

Some of the models should be coming out shortly. If they aren't out right now.

The GFS doesn't usually come out until 0430Z or an hour from now.

Speaking of Models. I checked the Models current mileage error rates at 72 hours. (3 days)

OFCI-82.5nm
NLMC-86.5
OFCL-86.6 (Official NHC Forecast-(not bad)~danielw)
DRCL, MRCL-86.9
CONU-87
OHPC-93
DSHP,DSNS-98.1
SHIP,SHNS-98.1
GUNS-99.4

crpeavley

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Oct 22 2005 03:58 AM

Re: Models

Actually Daniel, the GFS is coming out as we speak

00Z21102005GFS

Domino

(Weather Guru)

Sat Oct 22 2005 03:59 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

I am cruising to San Juan on Sunday. Going to be interesting to see what 99L does. Looks like if it does get together it'll shoot north in a couple days. Any thoughts on that? If all things work out I will be able to post directly from the ship. The ship I am on (Explorer of the Seas) has a complete NOAA lab so I'd be able to provide some interesting insight to the area for the next week if anything should pop.

(Weather Guru)

Sat Oct 22 2005 04:02 AM

Re: Models

gfs no change. still ft myers

(Moderator)

Sat Oct 22 2005 04:03 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

This is an interesting loop...look at the area extending from Indiana into Ohio...it almost appears that it may be going west-to-east but pulling to the north in Ohio, helping to pull Wilma in a more northerly direction.

WV Loop from Midwest

I believe that two of our mets made mention of this little feature at noon, saying it could help pull Wilma more to the north. Don't know for sure, though, that's why I posted the link. Lots of stuff out there that could steer her, but the key is WHEN and IF she ever gets out of the Yucatan Peninsula/Channel.
Satellite Steve: is this what you were seeing on the link you posted earlier?

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 04:04 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Don't get too hung up on the cones edges - remember these are just graphic represantations of the range of most likely tracks. The error keeps expanding into the future so the cones widen

The middle portions of the cones however contain the vast majority of the likely tracks and various entites draw their edge lines at 80 or 90 or 95% probabilities of the track being inside the cone.

This means a track at the edge of the cone is unlikely -- certainly many times less likely than one down the middle --- but there are still track possibilities outside the cone. You are not 100% safe outside the cone.

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 04:07 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

So much for losing strength. Looks like convection is flaring up again. Intensifying over land?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 04:13 AM

Re: little jog, big implications

Did she really shift south and west? Mark the southwestern side of the eye wall and loop the image. The eye is shrinking from the north to the south and from the east to the west which does put the eye more on shore, however, the southwestern edge of the eye didn't move.

DeLandT

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 04:15 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

The cold front out of the north is pushing down at a much faster rate than the trough coming out of the west. It appears that wilma will miss the train again...

(Moderator)

Sat Oct 22 2005 04:15 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Interesting radar loop...if you look at the outflow clouds, they are almost north/south....and the forecast points follow an almost due north movement, not as much NW as previously. Looks like a little bit of the eye may still be over water.
God bless those poor people in Mexico...today/tomorrow must be hellacious. We should all be thanking our lucky stars that we may just get a Cat 1 or 2 no matter where it goes in Florida.

evergladesangler

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 04:15 AM

Re: little jog, big implications

Quote:

Did she really shift south and west? Mark the southwestern side of the eye wall and loop the image. The eye is shrinking from the north to the south and from the east to the west which does put the eye more on shore, however, the southwestern edge of the eye didn't move.

She sure did and looks to be moving faster too.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATRAPID/anim8ir.html

(Storm Chaser)

Sat Oct 22 2005 04:16 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

We have to remember this was the strongest hurricane ever in the Atlantic,She will not die easy.Tonight I would say that Florida may have a stronger storm than What they were thinking this morning.Amazing she is still as strong as she is.It is going to be a long weekend here.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 04:18 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

Colleen - Nice representation on that image of the low in central US--with counter-clockwise flow and W to E on its S side. That is going to be the major steering influence in association with the front approaching from the W. Against that flow there is no way for Wilma to get further W once she is in its grasp. The opposite was true for Katrina/Rita -- they were running along the S side of high pressure with Clockwise flow.

The question of how far N Wilma gets on the Fl peninsula is influenced by where the front is when Wilma gets there.

Without the winds the forces of spinning bodies direct them away from the equator so tend to drive them N in the Nothern Hemisphere.

(Storm Chaser)

Sat Oct 22 2005 04:21 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

I pray for all my good friends in Playa Del Carmen,a very sad night for me.

lawgator

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 04:21 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

I don't think its a question anymore of IF she landfalls on Yucatan. In fact, eye on land now and appears to be WNW, as predicted by Steve Lyons earlier today on TWC. Let's see how long she stays there.

(Weather Guru)

Sat Oct 22 2005 04:27 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

dont focus on every wobble. check back in a couple hours, if motion is still same then it is achange of course. otherwise just another of many wobbles this storm has made.

(Moderator)

Sat Oct 22 2005 04:28 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

Yes, she is mostly on the Peninsula...however, click on "Forecast Points" on that radar image and you will see that the official NHC track has her heading NNW, not WNW. The official forecast was to be WNW, but she really hasn't been following their directions.

Colleen. Was She supposed to follow directions?~danielw

Goosus

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 04:31 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

I agree with a previous poster. To my untrained eye, what looks like a lurch south and west is really just Wilma's eye shrinking as it trudges NNW. If you place your curser at the SW corner of the eye at the coastline and advance the frames, the eye is both shrinking and still moving very slowly to the northwest.

I'm amazed this storm is keeping category 4 intensity and such low pressures seeing as it's interacted with a large land mass for most of the day and the eye has at least partially been over parts of land now for many hours.

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 04:33 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

can some explain why the system moving south from the central U.S. won't meet up with the system moving north over Texas and travel through the GOM?

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_hem_loop-12.html

lawgator

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 04:35 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

Quote:

dont focus on every wobble. check back in a couple hours, if motion is still same then it is achange of course. otherwise just another of many wobbles this storm has made.

The West motion started 22 Oct 05 at 0015 Z and has continued for 3.5 hours. I think its more than a wobble. But, guess it depends on how you define wobble, right?

(Weather Guru)

Sat Oct 22 2005 04:37 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

you have to take into account the shrinking of the center as well. Motion is still a very slow drift nw

Big Tk

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Oct 22 2005 04:38 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

Right now the steering currents are so WEAK .It will have erratic motion when it interacts with land. I do not see her moving north at all, if anything she's moving just slightly north of due west.

Brian S

(Registered User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 04:41 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

I was just wondering....Is it possible for a storm of her size moving as slow as she is that she is dumping enough water and storm surge over a very flat area and creating a kind of marsh land for her to travel over and that is what is keeping her intensity up? Just wondering if that was possible.

(Weather Guru)

Sat Oct 22 2005 04:43 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

interesting concept, but i doubt it.

(Moderator)

Sat Oct 22 2005 04:44 AM

Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel

You've said as much before, and you said the same the last time a storm went through there.

I'm not trying to be abrasive, but it's far too early (if you haven't heard from them) to presume the worst.

Relax, and know that the area is probably better of than you think (although obviously, the potential is still bad).

I was sleeping, now I will sleep again.

'night all.

(Weather Master)

Sat Oct 22 2005 04:46 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

Actually when a storm moves over a marshy flat area they will draw from the existing heat content present. However, it would not draw from the rains. The rains would actually cool the area.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 04:48 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

We will have to await the next avail data but I doubt Wilma is a category 4 now

Still not good news for Cancun area with very slow motion now and continued heavy rain

Whoever is giving directions to this storm I remained humbled by the intensification earlier this weak and hope she weakens just as fast.

(Weather Master)

Sat Oct 22 2005 04:49 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

Not sure if this has been mentioned, but if you look at this link and view time lapse to landfall, you will see it hit 0:00 2x, meaning in essence 2 landfalls.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2005_TWENTY-FOUR/webManager/last24hrs.gif

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 04:51 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

Quote:

can some explain why the system moving south from the central U.S. won't meet up with the system moving north over Texas and travel through the GOM?

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_hem_loop-12.html

Can somebody, anybody look at this WV image and give possible scenario, it has been bugging me all night?

(Weather Master)

Sat Oct 22 2005 04:52 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

Agreed, last Dvorak5.5-6, prob Cat 3 at this point

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 05:11 AM

Re: Looks like a stall

Looking at the images from cimss I think the 1st count-down stops at edge of eye landfall at Cozumel and 2nd is Yucatan mainland

Last image there estimated winds down to 110 Kts

(Moderator)

Sat Oct 22 2005 05:19 AM

StormCarib Update

Latest UPDATE (11:35PM CST)
From: "Kevin Alexander Murcko" <cancunkev at hotmail.com>
Date: Fri, 21 Oct 2005 23:39:25 -0600

After talking to several people here in Cancun via the net I have some new information.

It seems the worst of the storm will be here from 3 to 5AM local time when we can expect to see waves up to 8 meters high hitting the shoreline. Several hotels have been reported to be severally damaged, and the Lagoon is now meeting the ocean in various parts of the hotel zone.

I have been asked to record the sounds from inside the apartment, and I am trying to do that now. I will see if I can post something soon.

Thanks once again to everyone for your emails, thoughts, prayers, etc., they are very welcomed.

More to come....

http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/2005/mexico.shtml

(Storm Chaser)

Sat Oct 22 2005 05:42 AM

Re: StormCarib Update

I am sorry guys,but my heart is breaking,I have so many good friends in Playa Del Carmen.I have lost all contact with them.I am remembering all the places I hung out at,and they are all gone.This was such a great place in this world where everyone got along.We were all living in paridise,and we enjoyed life.Very tough night for me.

(Storm Chaser)

Sat Oct 22 2005 05:56 AM

Re: StormCarib Update

Just got a tornado warning up the street from me.

(Storm Chaser)

Sat Oct 22 2005 06:00 AM

Re: StormCarib Update

Really strange clouds.Thunder and lighting.Should move just north of me by about 6 miles.

(Registered User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 06:02 AM

Re: StormCarib Update

I have the same Tornadao warning at this moment ... radar shows at Wilton Manors and Oakland Park ...
Charles

Multi-Decadal Signal

(Weather Guru)

Sat Oct 22 2005 06:05 AM

Re: StormCarib Update

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
149 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 245 AM EDT

* AT 144 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR WILTON
MANORS AND OAKLAND PARK...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

TORNADOES ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT BECAUSE THEY ARE HARD TO
SEE. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT
MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE! MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OR
HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR
REINFORCED SHELTER. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 2604 8012 2619 8001 2633 8029 2620 8047

$$

CHRISTENSEN

Edited by Multi-Decadal Signal (Sat Oct 22 2005 02:01 AM)

(Registered User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 06:08 AM

Re: StormCarib Update

Thanks ... I have a mattress ready in the bathroom with my wife and child ...

(Registered User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 06:10 AM

Re: StormCarib Update

strange ... alot of of wind or rain ... but I am looking outside and listening for something ... if one has touchdowned how will I know if it coming our way?

Kimster

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 06:11 AM

Re: StormCarib Update

You'll hear it...sounds like a fast moving train.

(Weather Master)

Sat Oct 22 2005 06:12 AM

Re: StormCarib Update

Listen for something that sounds like a train

(Registered User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 06:14 AM

Re: StormCarib Update

the latest report says it is coming our way ... it is located at I95 between oakland park and lauderdale lakes and heading north ... we are located at I95 just north of lauderdale lakes and oakland park ...

(Registered User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 06:15 AM

Re: StormCarib Update

I am listening .... my wife is very nervous ...

(Weather Master)

Sat Oct 22 2005 06:18 AM

Re: StormCarib Update

Severe Weather Statement
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
208 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

FLC011-220645-
/O.CON.KMFL.TO.W.0012.000000T0000Z-051022T0645Z/
BROWARD FL-
208 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 AM EDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY...

AT 202 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR INTERSTATE 95 IN
BETWEEN OAKLAND PARK AND LAUDERDALE LAKES...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5
MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SEA
RANCH LAKES...SUNRISE...POMPANO BEACH...POMPANO BEACH
AIRPORT...TAMARAC...PARKLAND... AND NORTH LAUDERDALE.

SOUTH FLORIDA TORNADOES MAY AT TIMES BE SMALL AND NARROW BUT THEY ARE
STILL DANGEROUS. THEY CAN EASILY FLIP A VEHICLE OR TRAILER OR CAUSE
LARGE TREES TO FALL. TAKE COVER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 2604 8012 2619 8001 2633 8029 2620 8047

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT THE TORNADO THAT
PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER A THREAT...THUS
THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED

(Registered User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 06:23 AM

Re: StormCarib Update

I went outside to see if I can see anything, but I don't .. anybody have a good doppler radar link I can check out ? North Lauderdale area ... broward ...

(Weather Guru)

Sat Oct 22 2005 06:23 AM

Re: StormCarib Update

The 2 am out. Still a cat 4. Meandering but expected to resume a nnw movement

Multi-Decadal Signal

(Weather Guru)

Sat Oct 22 2005 06:25 AM

Re: StormCarib Update *DELETED*

Post deleted by Multi-Decadal Signal

(Registered User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 06:27 AM

Re: StormCarib Update

The threat has disappeated .. the warning is over ...

weathernut2

(Registered User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 06:27 AM

Re: StormCarib Update

Everyone make it past the tornado ok ?

(Registered User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 06:29 AM

Re: StormCarib Update

Everyone here is okay ... that was a first for us ... plenty of hurricanes but never a tornado scare. ..

superfly

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Oct 22 2005 06:29 AM

Re: StormCarib Update

The Cancun area might see damage rivaling and even surpassing that of Gilbert just because of the shear length of time they have been taking sustained major cane force winds. The wind damage in Cancun and Cozumel will probably put the wind damage (not surge) by Katrina to shame.

weathernut2

(Registered User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 06:33 AM

Re: StormCarib Update

thats very true, ive got about 10 forums and as 5 realtimes radars going right now and its driving me crazy. the worst part is that my parents are there they were moved to the aventura but thats that last that i heards they said that they moved some people to the convention center but i havnt been able to get through.

weathernut2

(Registered User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 06:35 AM

Re: StormCarib Update

not to mention so tired i can hardly type lol

(Meteorologist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 06:37 AM

Re: StormCarib Update

Radar indicates that the inner eyewall has taken on an elliptical shape. That could add to some complexity to the already erratic motion. The center of circulation does not seem to have moved much in the last few frames. The satellite presentation is degrading as you would expect, though weakening could be rather slow for awhile as part of the circulation remains over water.

Ironically, the 00Z GFDL has shifted further right in the short term, just bringing the center over the far NE tip of the Yucatan and back over water in about 18 hours, but the center of Wilma has already moved a little further inland than what the 00Z GFDL indicated. Long-term, the 00Z GFDL brings the center over Florida near Fort Myers between 54-60 hours.

komi

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Oct 22 2005 06:40 AM

Attachment

Re: StormCarib Update

Seems like T9 was tornadoe, dunno if touch the ground !!!

http://65.75.66.73/kamx_compref124_current.jpg

civil2183

(Registered User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 06:42 AM

Re: StormCarib Update

On the IR, the eye has also pretty much filled in.

Twistergal

(Registered User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 06:46 AM

Re: StormCarib Update

This info is from a site I've been reading off and on tonight. The writer is receiving this news from co-workers, friends, etc. who are in the Cancun area and he's reporting it from Mexico City. Just to give folks a bit of an FYI as to what's been happening. If interested in reading the forum/thread, the URL is:

http://cancuntravelonline.com (From there, scroll down page, look on left side and click on Cancun Forum.)

"We have some very troubling information coming from our team in Cancun. Police and military are reporting the following:

The Boulevard Kukulcan where all of the hotels are located is no longer visible. The Caribbean Sea has crossed over and met the Lagoon and the waters are rising. All hotels in the hotel zone are flooded and taking water.

The Hyatt Hotel (not sure whether it is Regency or Cancun Caribe) has suffered "extensive structural damage". If you remember earlier images in the thread there were some photos from Televisa of the Hyatt Hotel taken from The Mall Forum by the Sea.

The Hurricane has provoked tornados in the region as well as in Cuba where 4 tornados caused some destruction there.

80% of Cancun is flooded with 3 to nearly 5 feet of water.

The Mayor of Cancun and the Committee for Hurricanes made a tactical decision about 2 hours ago to evacuate some of the areas as well as some of the shelters that are in danger of flooding. The governor of Quintana Roo said in a press release just an hour ago that Cancun and the Riviera Maya has received unprecidented damage and the worst is yet to come.

We do not know what areas yet or whether they are locals or tourists.

Again the downtown area is flooded as well and Gaby is reporting that our friends from Televisa are trapped in a hotel downtown and are awaiting rescue from military staff.

There has still only been one reported death in Cancun and the 9 injured in Playa Del Carmen so far.

Susana Lopez is reporting that they are not able to leave the hotel where they are in downtown called the Handel Hotel because of high water and currents passing the hotel.

Military Troops have arrived from Veracruz and Tabasco with Boats and equipment prepared to move in and evacuate or rescue after the storm has died down.

State Police reported just a short while ago that the area of the Hilton Cancun and the Marriott is "out of control". We don't know what that means as communication in Cancun is minimal.

More coming in."

(Moderator)

Sat Oct 22 2005 07:05 AM

Models??

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
132 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005
VALID OCT 22/0000 UTC THRU OCT 25/1200 UTC
(edited~danielw)

..HURCN WILMA
THE NAM AND GFS ARE OVER 50 MB TOO WEAK WITH THE CNTR. THE NAM AND GFS WILL BE WEAK WITH THE FORECAST INTENSITY AS A RESULT. THE NAM IS OVER A QRTR INCH TOO DRY WITH THE PW AT MZBZ...TO THE S OF WILMA. THE NAM IS ALSO OVER A QRTR INCH TOO DRY WITH THE PW AT XMR IN CNTRL FL.

..HURCN WILMA
THE 00Z NAM IS DEEPER AND MORE NLY THAN THE 12Z NAM WITH WILMA OVER THE YUCATAN. ON DAYS 2-3...THE NAM TRENDS MORE NELY AND DEEPER WITH WILMA. THE 00Z GFS IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER CARRYING WILMA INTO THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ERN CONUS TROF...RACING HER OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...COMPARED TO THE 12Z GFS. THIS IS DUE TO THE FASTER/DEEPER TREND WITH THE ERN CONUS TROF BY DAY 2. THE GFS IS ALSO TRENDING DEEPER WITH WILMA.

MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES..
..HURCN WILMA
THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FOR WILMA IS CLOSER TO THE CAN GLOB AND UKMET TRACK THAN THE FASTER GFS OR SLOWER/MORE SLY NAM. THE CAN GLOB AND UKMET ARE PREFERRED WITH THE ERN CONUS TROF STEERING WILMA BY MID PD.

(Moderator)

Sat Oct 22 2005 07:16 AM

2AM EDT Tropical Wx Discussion Excerpts

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005
(edited~danielw)

WILMA MADE A SECOND LANDFALL AROUND 11 PM EDT NEAR PLAYA DEL CARMEN MEXICO AND SINCE THEN THE EYE HAS FILLED WITH THE DIAMETER SHRINKING FROM 20 NM TO AN IRREGULAR 5-10 NM.

THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF WILMA HAS RESULTED IN A PROFUSE AMOUNT OF RAIN ALONG THE YUCATAN COAST...AND AN AUTOMATED STATION ON ISLA MUJERES...JUST E OF CANCUN...HAS REPORTED ABOUT 16" OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 24 HRS.

A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC STATION LOCATED IN
ISLA MUJERES HAS BEEN REPORTING WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE
DURING THE PAST 10 TO 12 HOURS WITH A MAXIMUM WIND GUST TO 108
MPH...173 KM/HR. (from the Hur. Wilma 1 AM CDT Adv #27A)
***************************************************
EAST CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT WITH A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 15N65W...OR ABOUT 225 NM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS IF THE CONVECTION CAN CONSOLIDATE NEAR THE LOW CENTER. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NWWD ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND WILL SPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER THE ISLAND BEGINNING LATER TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUN NIGHT.

Full text available here, and on Main Page of flhurricane.com
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/220000.shtml?

Twistergal

(Registered User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 07:31 AM

Re: StormCarib Update

A bit more info on what's happening in Cancun, per cancuntravelonline.com:

"Governor is saying that this is going to register as the worst disaster in Mexico's history with damage and records set.

Some Details:

So Far, 55 centimeters of rain has fallen on Isla Mujeres since 2AM yesterday (a Record).
Stan dumped 36 centimeters and killed 1,500 people in Mexico this month.
In 1997, Paulina dumped 44 centimeters.

Some bad news just in, sorry if I posted it already but I was trying to confirm the information. It is confirmed...

The Caribbean sea crossed the beaches, into the hotels and has met with the lagoon. The road no longer exists as it is now just one big ocean. Worst yet between 3 am and 5 am, the water is expected to rise to 30 feet or 3 stories in the hotel zone, causing obviously unmentionable damages to property there. Again, that is a direct quote from the information passed at the 11PM briefing.

Also, doesn't seem we are getting a break right now. The evacuation of the shelter we talked about is now confirmed that the 2,500 evacuated were tourists. Evacuation was because the ceiling tiles were falling.

All of the shelters, homes, businesses, are taking in water because of the pounding rain hitting the buildings."

Lake Toho - Kissimmee

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Oct 22 2005 07:35 AM

Regarding Evacuating to Orlando - NWS Key West

EVACUATING RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO
SEEK SHELTER NORTH OF ORLANDO IF THEY CHOOSE NOT TO STAY AT THE
DESIGNATED SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY. A MANDATORY
EVACUATION ORDER FOR ALL MOBILE HOME DWELLERS AND SPECIAL NEEDS
CLIENTS WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 6 AM EDT SATURDAY. MONROE COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL MAKE A DECISION REGARDING MANDATORY
EVACUATION FOR ALL KEYS RESIDENTS ON SATURDAY MORNING.

Excerpt FROM NWS Key West Hurricane Statement. 11:30 PM

(Registered User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 07:59 AM

Re: Regarding Evacuating to Orlando - NWS Key West

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
350 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA

* UNTIL 445 AM EDT

* AT 340 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER THE AREA EAST OF INTERSTATE 95
FROM OAKLAND PARK...TO WILTON MANORS...TO THE PORTION OF POMPANO
BEACH SOUTH OF ATLANTIC AVENUE.

(Moderator)

Sat Oct 22 2005 08:02 AM

Re: StormCarib Update

Lluvia torrencial de 590 mm en Isla Mujeres, en las últimas 24 h. Olas de 5 a 8 m en Cancún y Riviera Maya.

translated by google and bablefish

Torrential rain of 590 mm (23.5inches) in Isle of Women, the last 24 h. Waves of 5 to 8 meters (16.4 to 26.24feet) in Cancún and Mayan Riviera..

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/eSMN/Espaniol/PagsNavegacion/Default.aspx

scottsvb

(Weather Master)

Sat Oct 22 2005 08:15 AM

Re: StormCarib Update

IM going to bed,,, the 6z nogaps is out and back to a Naples Landfall - WPB...0z had it going along and just south of the keys then thru the bahamas....key will be how far NW she gets crossing the Yucitan and how much of a bend then,,,NE or ENE? how much? all questions we will find out starting later Saturday night into Sunday..........

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 08:34 AM

Re: Models??

I was hoping for an overnight shift. I see we still have the bullseye here in Naples. We are usually saved by a shift at the last possible moment. However, don't think that we are not prepared. My first employer after my move to SW Floirda taught me that each pending threat is another training exercise, and you take the lessons learned and incorporate them into your plan so that you are better prepared the next time. The waiting is difficult and also very hard on businesses who need to continue to run (facing uncertainty about the aftermath) while balancing safety concerns of employees and their families. We will continue to prepare and wait.

evergladesangler

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 08:40 AM

Re: Models??

She's barely budged in 3-4 hours. Any new ideas on when and where she'll get moved?

HanKFranK

(User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 08:55 AM

Re: Models??

the longer the hurricane stays hung up, the later it hits florida and the weaker. if the hurricane is off the yucatan by sundown today, it'll probably come in earlier and stronger. if it's still over land by then, probably weaker and late in the day on monday. target zone is still fort myers, don't buy the keys or florida straits.
that pesky little 99L feature south of puerto rico has a better radar signature than earlier, but still not a definite closed circulation. with wilma where it is it won't get priority recon, so info won't be as good. should move across hispaniola in 30-44 hours or so, which will probably kill anything that might have formed. be surprised if it can survive that trek.
HF 0854z22october

(Moderator)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:00 AM

5AM Discussion excerpts

THE
STATION LOCATED IN ISLA MUJERES LOCATED OFFSHORE NEAR THE NORTHEATERN TIP OF YUCATAN HAS BEEN MEASURING MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND 90 KNOTS FOR MORE THAN 9 HOURS. LATEST MAXIMUM WIND AT 06Z WAS 88
KNOTS. BECAUSE THE EYE IS INLAND THE HURRICANE HAS WEAKENED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 110 KNOTS.

THE FORECAST INTENSITY OF WILMA WHILE CROSSING FLORIDA IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH KEEP AN INTENSE
HURRICANE WITH 100 TO 115 KNOTS AND THE SHIPS MODEL THAT RAPIDLY WEAKENS THE CYCLONE.

THE INTENSITY OF WILMA WHILE CROSSING FLORIDA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE A CATEGORY ONE OR TWO AT LANDFALL.
WILMA'S WIND FIELD WILL PROBABLY EXPAND AS IT CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THEREFORE...THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY COVER A LARGE AREA.

BASED ON THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA...A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

FORECASTER AVILA

Wxwatcher2

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:32 AM

Re: Models??

Quote:

She's barely budged in 3-4 hours. Any new ideas on when and where she'll get moved?

See the NHC 5am discussion. Across Southern Florida Monday, wind field expanding and beginning to go extratropical.

Meanwhile, Cancun and the Yucatan is being torn apart tonight by Wilma. Please Say a prayer for all those trapped in Shelters and for those who are loosing their homes and or loved ones.

Sometimes, we get so involved in tracking these storms that we loose track of the human toll that is involved.

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 10:06 AM

Re: Models??

Quick question ......watching the Weather Channel and then checking NHC, the Hurricane path reported from the Weather Channel seems much more south than the NHC...confusing as to why these would be so different. In your opinion where do you think Wilma may make landfall? And what would you anticipate that our weather in the Tampa Bay area would be on Monday?

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Oct 22 2005 10:17 AM

Re: Models??

Quote:

Quick question ......watching the Weather Channel and then checking NHC, the Hurricane path reported from the Weather Channel seems much more south than the NHC...confusing as to why these would be so different. In your opinion where do you think Wilma may make landfall? And what would you anticipate that our weather in the Tampa Bay area would be on Monday?

I don't understand the Weather Channel. I am in St Pete and my dad called earlier and said "I see on the WC that your out of danger down there". That was a suprise to me as I don't watch the WC and "out of danger" was not what I was hearing from the local mets here. It really seems like the WC would be in line with the NHC as alot of people could get a false sense of security watching them. As far as what to expect on Monday, it is still anyones guess, the cane has stalled now.

emackl

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Oct 22 2005 10:21 AM

Re: Models??

I agree. Accuweather tends to veer from the NHC with storms. However, they've kept Tampa/St Pete in the cone. Stupid not to until we see when she makes her move.

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 10:27 AM

Re: Models??

I am glad that I am not the only one hearing this , our local channles are saying one thing but the Weather Channel is saying another. I have to make a decision by this evening wheather I should pull my Service Technicians off the road on Monday , and of course there are my In-Laws that live in the same area that state " they would rather ride out the Hurricane than get stuck in a car together for that long, trying to escape the storm"...i moved my entire family last year to Polk county to escape Charlie when it was believed to be heading for our area, then with the sudden switch in the path I put everyone directly in the path of the storm...I do not want to make the same mistake agian. :

(Moderator)

Sat Oct 22 2005 10:29 AM

Track and Watches

I was just about to post a preliminary heads up for the Tropical Storm Watch and Hurricane Watch areas.

I have TWC on, but I haven't paid much attention to them as I use the NHC products.

The 4 AM CDT 3 Day Track Forecast is for a tentative Landfall near Marcos Island.
Wilma should then, based on the 4 AM Map, track ENE passing just South of Lake Okeechobee, and exit the Peninsula near Ft Pierce.
All of this is based on the 4 AM CDT 3 Day Track Map.

I just saw what you were refering to.
TWC's track map ONLY extends as far North as the Southern side of Tampa Bay. This is INCORRECT.

The 4AM CDT NHC Cone map, Covers the West FL Coast, from the Yankeetown/ Bayport Area, all the way around to near St Augustine on the East FL Coast.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/084606.shtml?3day?large
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/break_seUS.gif

My thoughts on the Tropical Storm Watch are from Longboat Key to Dry Tortugas.
NHC may bypass the Trop Storm Watch and go straight to a Hurricane Watch for the above named area.
Normal Procedures would be:
Tropical Storm Watch 36 hours ahead of 39mph or higher winds.
Trop. Storm Warning-24 hrs or less ahead of winds 39mph or higher.
Hurricane Watch-36 hours ahead of 74mph or higher winds.
Hurricane Warning-24hrs or less ahead of 74mph or greater winds.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 10:35 AM

Re: Models??

Collier County has another emergency mtg this morning so we will be watching for the latest from them as well as the local mets. Guess TWC will be moving their reporters down closer to Marco. Just saw a clip from Fort Myers. The waiting game is frustrating.

(Moderator)

Sat Oct 22 2005 10:37 AM

Safe Area??

Most of the Weather Service Products that I viewed last night. Recommended evacuation to a location...NORTH Of Orlando.

HURRICANE WILMA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
530 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 (edited~danielw)

EVACUATING
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO SEEK SHELTER NORTH OF ORLANDO IF THEY CHOOSE
NOT TO STAY AT THE DESIGNATED SHELTER AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
UNIVERSITY. A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER FOR ALL MOBILE HOME
DWELLERS AND SPECIAL NEEDS CLIENTS IS IN EFFECT AS OF 6 AM EDT THIS
MORNING. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL MAKE A DECISION
REGARDING MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL KEYS RESIDENTS LATER THIS
MORNING.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=HLSEYW&max=51

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 10:39 AM

Re: Track and Watches

Thank you , I appreciate the heads up ...I think I am just going to stick with you guys and NHC from now on..I wish I would have known about this website last year......

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Oct 22 2005 10:50 AM

Re: Track and Watches

I am in St Pete and at this point I am not going to bother preparing the house here. If things change I think there will still be plenty of time.

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 10:55 AM

Re: Track and Watches

Any chance that that trough coming down from the North will be slower in getting here than they anticipate?

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Oct 22 2005 11:00 AM

Re: Track and Watches

Quote:

Any chance that that trough coming down from the North will be slower in getting here than they anticipate?

Well Maddie, how many times have we been promised a cold front this time of year and it stalls out? They get our hopes up for cooler weather and then it falls through.