MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sun Oct 23 2005 05:00 PM
Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

11 PM EDT Update
Wilma is now a category 3 storm. Track has not changed.

Full track and archive here: SkeetobiteWeather.com

9:20 PM EDT Update
Recon is reporting 114 Knot winds at flight level, which equates to roughly 103 knots at the surface, or near 120MPH winds.

8:30 PM EDT Update
The latest recon report suggests 110 Knot winds in flight level, which would equate roughly to 115MPH winds at the surface. It looks like Wilma may become a Major Hurricane this evening once again.

8PM EDT Update
Wilma is strengthening. Up to 110MPH winds, it appears that the shear isn't as great, or rather the relative shear isn't as great as expected. It is likely that Wilma will make landfall as a Category 3 system.

The atmosphere this evening is very ripe for short lived Tornadoes and waterspouts spawned off of Wilma. In fact, several tornadoes have already been reported across the peninsula this evening.

Jim Williams from Hurricane City is doing his Hurricane Warning Show tonight you can listen/view his show Here.

The chat room link here is also open tonight.

Original Update
Hurricane Wilma is making its move toward Florida now racing 14mph northeastward to the Peninsula. The outer Squalls of Wilma are beginning to approach the Keys, and conditions there will deteriorate overnight.

Wilma is still forecast to make landfall near Naples as a high category 2 or low category 3 storm, Wilma has strengthened just a bit in the late afternoon, the windspeed is up to 105 MPH from 100. It has a chance to strengthen a little more before landfall.


For reference the threshhold for Category 3 is 115 MPH. It is expected to exit the state around Jupiter. However one should not focus too much on these points, as the error could be large either north or south. Anywhere in the hurricane warning area should be prepared.

As it is rocketing across Florida, it may begin transforming into an extratropical system, which will likely mean an expansive windfield around the system. Make sure loose items in the yard, etc are brought in if you are in the warning area (Tropical Storm) or have an inland wind warning out for your area.

For east central Florida, expect frequent showers and isolated thunderstorms on Sunday, with conditions rapidly deteriorating late Sunday evening.
Expect heavy squalls and winds near hurricane force from 9am Monday morning through 1pm Monday afternoon with three to five inches of rain likely between Sunday morning and Monday evening.

Listen to local media and officials for more details about your specific area and please use official sources for information as well. This is an unofficial site and although we make every effort to be correct and help, we do not have the resources and knowledge that the National Hurricane Center does. Always, If there is any doubt whatever, take their word over what you see here or any unofficial source.


A storm surge of nine to seventeen feet is possible on the west coast near the point of landfall, mostly on the south side because of the direction of approach, ie Everglades City and the 10,000 islands area.
Storm surge is also possible in lake Okeechobee up to 5 to 8 feet.

The potential for tornadoes exists throughout the warning areas.

More to come...

Alpha is now a tropical depression and moving north of the island of Hispaniola. Tropical storm watches/warnings for the southeastern Bahamas have been dropped.


Report Conditions from Wilma in your area here
Make your landfall prediction or forecast in this topic.

Tropical Storm Alpha Discussion

Event Related Links

Long Run Animated Radar recording of Wilma's Florida Approach (Flhurricane mirror of NWS radars)

Stormcarib reports from Cozumel/Cancun (Includes Photos)
Stormcarib reports from the islands
Cancun Radar Animation (Flhurricane mirror) (Note: We have stopped recording this radar, but you still may view wilma's approach and departure of the Yucatan here)
West cuban Radar

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar

Emergency Management/County info
Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL
Lee County, FL
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL

Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites

State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne

"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh

Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
Florida Today (Brevard County)
Orlando Sentinel
Tampa Tribune
Miami Herald
Daytona Beach News Journal
News Press (Southwest Florida)

Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)

Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, will likely be doing his live audio show as Wilma approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here He usually starts at 8PM eastern and runs until the 11PM advisory comes out.

Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is in Naples, and has set up equpiment to record the storm in Marco island and in Everglades City see some of his live streaming video and audio here

Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports from the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX (not affiliated with the real NHC)
Barometer Bob

WebCams
Royal Resorts Webcams in Cancun
The Royal Sands Animated WebCam (Flhurricane Mirrored)

Reply and let us know of other links.

Wilma

* NEW * Skeetobite Animated Model Graphic
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of Wilma - Static Image
Wilma Microwave Imagery Animation
Various Wilma Satellite Imagery
Floater Satellite with storm track overlays
Floater IR Satellite with storm track/front overlays
Weather Underground Model Plots
cimss page

Tropical Storm Alpha

* NEW * Skeetobite Animated Model Graphic of TD#25
[url=http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?25]South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of
Various Alpha Satellite Imagery
TD#25[/url] - Static Image
cmss page


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 05:05 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

(Repost) Pressure down a little more and the eye diameter is shrinking if the vortex reports are accurate, which would allow for more intensification if it continues.

I assume the increase in winds is due to that one dropsonde in the eastern eyewall I mentioned earlier. The most recent dropsonde in the NE eyewall measured 86 kt surface winds. There is a NOAA plane with an SFMR in the area, which may have some additional data on the surface wind speed. It'll be interesting to see what the discussion says.

URNT12 KNHC 232053
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/20:30:10Z
B. 23 deg 34 min N
085 deg 03 min W
C. 700 mb 2760 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 144 deg 088 kt
G. 044 deg 052 nm
H. 959 mb
I. 8 C/ 3055 m
J. 15 C/ 3048 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C45
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.03 / 2 nm
P. AF304 2124A Wilma OB 32
MAX FL WIND 96 KT SE QUAD 17:16:40 Z


LizL
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Oct 23 2005 05:12 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Osceola County Report
POSTED: 4:47 pm EDT August 17, 2004
UPDATED: 4:22 pm EDT October 23, 2005
NOTE:
Winds of tropical storm force expected to arrive in St. Cloud at 5 a.m. Monday, peaking at 50 mph with gusts to 70 mph around the 11 a.m. hour, and dropping below tropical storm force by 5 p.m.
A state of emergency in St. Cloud will be declared at Sunday night.
EVACUATIONS:
The county will be issuing evacuation information Sunday for residents living in manufactured homes and low lying areas prone to flooding.
CLOSURES:
Osceola Schools will be close on Monday, Oct. 24. As student safety is paramount, Superintendent Blaine Muse has closed all Osceola public and charter schools on Monday, Oct. 24, due to Hurricane Wilma. No employees should report to work unless directed by their supervisor for emergency purposes.
Also, Kissimmee City Hall will be closed Monday, Oct. 24 and all non-essential employees do not need to report to work.
Kissimmee Utility Authority (KUA) offices will be closed for normal business on Monday, Oct. 24. An operations meeting will be held on Monday morning to determine hours of operation for the remainder of the week.

City of St. Cloud offices are closed Monday.

All Barry University sites throughout Central Florida and the Treasure Coast will be closed through Monday, October 24, due to Hurricane Wilma. This includes all programs in the Orlando and Treasure Coast areas, i.e. all sites throughout Brevard, Highlands, Martin, Orange, Osceola, Polk and St. Lucie counties. Barry University has also announced that all sites in Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Lee, Collier, Highlands, Desoto, Manatee and Sarasota counties will be closed throughout Monday.


SAND BAGS:


The City of Kissimmee Public Works Department is currently distributing free sandbags to residents until 7:00 p.m.

The city has already prepared 6,000 sandbags and has the capability to prepare another 30,000 if necessary.

The sandbags may be obtained at the Public Works service center located at 2201 Mabbette St., just behind the YMCA off Thacker Avenue.

Residents may pick-up no more than 12 sandbags per household.

The city asks recipients to supply valid ID to verify their address.


INFORMATION:

The EOC will be activated at 2 a.m. Monday and will remain operational until the threat from Hurricane Wilma ceases.


charlottefl
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 05:17 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

We just got our first feeder band here in Port Charlotte, not too bad kinda breezy. I'm thinking a lot of the trees that barely survived Charley aren't gonna make it...

Hurricane Charley '04(Port Charlotte)


Bev
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 05:18 PM
Cuban Radar <repost>

The radar at La Bajada, Cuba has the entire eyewall.
La Bajada Radar

Other Cuban Radar Locations:

Cuban Radar Sites

-Bev


Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Sun Oct 23 2005 05:22 PM
Re:Position <Repost>

That last vortex message is about ten miles at 290 degrees from the 5:00PM EDT position from NHC. Granted, when you have a 45 mile wide eye, ten miles is still in the eye. Don't like seeing that pressure drop continuing. Does not bode well.

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 05:29 PM
Re:Position <Repost>

No sign yet of increasing shear adversely affecting the system, as noted by NHC in their latest discussion. They seemed to have backed off on weakening the storm much before landfall. The system increasing in forward speed in the same direction as the deep layer flow will mitigate the shear effects somewhat. That is why it looked so dangerous for Florida a few days ago when it looked like a stronger Wilma was going to go through the Yucatan channel... there was not going to be much time for the shear to weaken it once it reached the Gulf. As it is, it is still a large and dangerous hurricane and should not be taken lightly.

typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 05:37 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

...Wilma has spent the day traversing over top a local heat content maxim as notable by: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2005295go.jpg ....a region indirectly associated with the well-discussed loop. There is a lag-time for response, even in the highly coupled boundary-layer/SS environment of the TC model... Wilma is no exception and we are tending to see colder ct explosions and a weak attempt at a better defined CDO as we type, which will likely continue while she avails of the additional heat injection...

It is not unthinkable that Wilma could go through a 3 hour period of more rapid intensification; we may be on the threshold of seeing that happened this evening. She has little room to spare and I think cat-3 is easy from here on out... Just my opinion. She is also got an awesome outflow channel established NNE, which may also be keyed into the westerlies veering into a front entrance jet structure just N of a stationary boundary in the area... This could all presage a rapid transition scenario just off the SE Coast. Once she gets over land and the western ends of the boundary should start crashing into her backside... rasping in cooler and drier continental air... This will almost immediately establish cold frontogensis because at that time she will be intertwining, rather complexly, with the jet structure associated with a very powerful U/A low settling into the Ohio Valley and will have differential thermal advection in her southern flanks... (1st signal to transition is the establishment of baroclinic boundaries and most models also show mid- tropospheric warm frontal genisis extending out into the open Atlantic as Wilm climbs in latitude, as well)

If you are in Eastern New England, you'd better have contingency plans if you are prone to marine attacks...Just in case... Hurricane Bob did a billion in damage to marine interests along and this "could" conceivable be almost as costly because it will have a much greater areal assault of less winds. We currently have high wind watches established for eastern coastal Massachusetts... 970mb hybrid bomb is crashing NNE up underneath a 1034mb high in Quebec... Umm... Do the math. If the absolute phased scenario pans out and an extratropical low is born of Wilmas potential energy, could be a real press maker. One saving factor is that we are at the astro-low side of the tide cycle...But, with 70mph (potential) sustained NE winds and extremely low bp we are likely going to have at least a 3 to 4 foot storm surge...Tides are slated in the 8.9 foot (mean) during the high tide Tuesday and that could be trouble with 20foot breakers are crashing to shore..

If that were not enough, there are deeper convective elements popping in the vicinity of Alpha as it is moving off the N Coast of Hispanola, over SSTs that are still warm enough for TC, under an upper level anticyclone that is transiently located over the eastern Bahamas... Fairly obvious curved banding suggests that NHC allusion to regeneration may be afoot... This system is modeled to recurve but I have issues with that taking place. The Nor'easter over night is fast escaping and there'll be a natural rebound in the ridge tendencies in it's wake; meanwhile, the U/A low and trough in the Ohio Valley is in the process of taking on deeper meridianal extent, which "should" mean heights out in the Atlantic would teleconnect higher... The combination of these feed-backs would tend to a model solution closer to the 12z GFDL than those provided by the 18z run... Not sure why it reverted back to the 06z-like pathways in the models et al for that matter, because the 12z made for a better intuitive fit... Actually, for New England's sake, they'd probably better hope the ridge hypothesis above doesn't work out and Alpha recurves and doesn't get caught up in the fruckus of Wilma's rage. It just seems to me that this plot could all get very hairy in a hurry if Alpha explosively regenerates and takes bee-line at Long Island during the next 24 hours, because the models and man, neither would have really seen that coming - or at least I suspect that to this point, that "outside" possibility hasn't really been talked about... But imagine that...having a tropical storm slam in with almost no warning and then have to deal with a transitioning Nor'easter with warm core characteristics... It would be truly rare..

Update 1: Also, not to be insensitive because yes INDEED...I should be focussed on Florida concerns first in deference to urgencies..
Update 2: Judging by recent IR frames I am inclined to think that indeed....a rapid intensification is underway...


efaulkSWFLA
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Oct 23 2005 05:42 PM
Re:Position <Repost>

Good Evening all..
FInal preparations are complete, and the wait has begun.. Cant get myself away from football to check out local info, so I am catching up here online. I am expecting hurricane force winds, but still wondering how bad they will be. In looking at that few visable loops I see it "possibly" taking a bit more of a northern (or left) track, than the forcast points.. Is that me reading into this incorrectly? Or is this movement possible now that the storm is picking up its forward speed?

Any info would be excellent...

Edit: the very best info for you can be seen on your local forecast page here:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.php?CityName=Fort+Myers&state=FL&site=TBW



engicedave
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 05:47 PM
Re:Position <Repost>

The eye is coming into view on this radar out of KW

Ft Myers is about to get it's initial heavy stuff

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/byx_N0Z_lp.shtml


MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Sun Oct 23 2005 05:48 PM
Re:Position <Repost>

Looks pretty consistently NE to me. Better organization now being seen on the vis floater loop. Also, East CONUS WV Loop really shows the trough dropping southward from Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri with a wind/vorticity max in the Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana area.

RedingtonBeachGuy
(Moderator)
Sun Oct 23 2005 05:58 PM
Forum Rules Revisited

The site bandwidth could be severely tested today as the storm approaches the coast, but you can help by not posting the obvious and keeping your posts informative. We need to reduce the number of one-liners so that we can keep the site up and running during this serious event. Your help is appreciated. Some one-liners are ok if they are informative - just try to keep the number of them down.

Post FACTS in this thread.. the rest belongs in the Forecast Lounge.

Thank you!


Genesis
(Weather Guru)
Sun Oct 23 2005 06:03 PM
TORNADO WARNING - TAMPA AREA

TORNADO ON THE GROUND NEAR TAMPA - multiple visual reports of a rope.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
548 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN HARDEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
SOUTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
SOUTHEASTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
NORTHEASTERN MANATEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

* AT 548 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO OVER NORTHWESTERN HARDEE COUNTY...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT...
FORT GREEN BY 550 PM EDT.
FORT LONESOME BY 615 PM EDT.

AT 545 PM EDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ALSO REPORTED SEVERAL
PUBLIC SITINGS OF A TORNADO ON THE GROUND JUST SOUTHWEST OF ZOLFO
SPRINGS.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM! MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...AWAY FROM WINDOWS. COVER YOUR HEAD AND
BODY WITH PILLOWS OR BLANKETS.


&&

LAT...LON 2749 8200 2762 8186 2787 8212 2768 8223

$$


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sun Oct 23 2005 06:08 PM
Re:Position <Repost>

Taking a break from the fourth load of laundry!

Wilma's continuing to look better but at a very slow rate; the area of convection has been steadily growing. She still hasn't been able to get the needed organization around the core.

She's going to be moving over the loop current about the next six hours. There's no sign of the shear they talked about, so as I posted when I got on this am (11ish), this is the time coming up when she will have the best opportunity to intensify, which now looks to be between about 7pm and 2am.


3rdGenFlaNative
(Registered User)
Sun Oct 23 2005 06:08 PM
Re: TORNADO WARNING - TAMPA AREA

GULP! Tornado warning here in Lakeland, Radar on channel 8 shows a NASTY cell headed our way. This is what has made me nervous all along. Stay safe everyone. Here we go!

RedingtonBeachGuy
(Moderator)
Sun Oct 23 2005 06:23 PM
Re: TORNADO WARNING - SARASOTA COUNTY

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
618 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SARASOTA COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 645 PM EDT

* AT 618 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A TORNADO 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF NORTH PORT...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 35
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT...
MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK BY 635 PM EDT.
LAUREL BY 640 PM EDT.
BEE RIDGE BY 645 PM EDT.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM! MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...AWAY FROM WINDOWS. COVER YOUR HEAD AND
BODY WITH PILLOWS OR BLANKETS.

IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...MOVE INTO A STURDY BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...
SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH...OR LOW SPOT...AND COVER YOUR HEAD
WITH YOUR HANDS.


harmlc.ath.cx
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 06:29 PM
Re: TORNADO WARNING - SARASOTA COUNTY

Local stations here in metro orlando are asking for everyone to be aware of a strong cell of storms heading north with the possiblities of tornados in the next hour.

engicedave
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 06:32 PM
Re: TORNADO WARNING - SARASOTA COUNTY

The link listed for the Key West radar also flashes the Tornado cells/areas in boxes

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/byx_N0Z_lp.shtml

BTW - Click on "Autoupdate" and just let it go...refreshes automatically every 5 min


RedingtonBeachGuy
(Moderator)
Sun Oct 23 2005 06:32 PM
Excellent current wind field display

Over 200 miles across:

http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_field.asp


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sun Oct 23 2005 06:41 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Fix for last post. There was an issue with the forums n the last few posts. Nothing was lost, just moved around. It should be ok now, however.


Katie
(Weather Guru)
Sun Oct 23 2005 06:47 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

I am here in East Polk County just now starting to get some of the "bands"

Funny thing, with Charley last year as his bands came across the pressure in my head was horrible to the point to where nothing would take it away. In the past 20 mins the same thing has happened again. Of course WOW - I just looked out tyhe window an amazing lightening right now!! HOLY COW, that was incredible. Anyway,....there is a bad system heading my way.

For anyone in this - good luck - I know I am a little worried right now with the tornados "coming" at night. I don't like that one bit.

My ex is with the S.O. and as he gets any B.O.L.Os for tornados he will wake me so we can go in to safety.

I hope to hear that eveyrone is safe tomorrow.

-Katie


RedingtonBeachGuy
(Moderator)
Sun Oct 23 2005 06:49 PM
Real time Lightning Data

http://www.flamedia.com/lightning/light.htm

typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 06:51 PM
Re: Excellent current wind field display

Earliest guess on radar fixes suggests that Wilma may actually be moving more ENE than NE proper ...
in fact, that may be generous because it looks essentially east on this channel:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml

...Obviously, this may be a range related...


WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Sun Oct 23 2005 06:51 PM
Lake Okeechobee

Palm Beach EOC just on T.V. They are a bit worried at the southeast end of the lake in Palm Beach County about the dike. Once the storm passes the lake to the NE they expect the NW winds to raise the lake 3 to 5 feet at the southeast end.

Prospero
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Oct 23 2005 06:53 PM
Alpha Wilma

Pretty incredible to see both storms a spinnin' side by side:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html



the young weatherman
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Oct 23 2005 06:53 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Oct 23 2005 06:54 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
649 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A
.. TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME WESTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY...
SOUTHEASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF YEEHAW JUNCTION...
.. UNTIL 730 PM EDT
AT 649 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A TORNADO OVER THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE ...3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
YEEHAW JUNCTION...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.
.. THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE CROSS STATE ROAD 60 AND PASS NEAR THE
OSCEOLA AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTY LINE NEAR YEEHAW JUNCTION THROUGH
715 PM...

also thought this was interesting, cuz things are going downhill now for the keys:

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
652 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST HAS ISSUED A
.. SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
GULF WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE 20 TO 60 NM
.. UNTIL 745 PM EDT
.. AT 648 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
POSSIBLE VIOLENT WATERSPOUT ...AROUND 27 MILES NORTH OF SMITH SHOAL
LIGHT...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH.


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Oct 23 2005 07:01 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

latest MESO out of SPC: (storm prediction center)

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2355
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0557 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN FL
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 836...
VALID 232257Z - 240100Z
TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND SRN FL.
WILMA CONTINUES MOVING ENEWD TOWARD SWRN FL ATTM...WHILE INDIVIDUAL
THUNDERSTORM CELLS WITHIN LOOSELY-DEFINED OUTER BANDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ROTATION. ALONG WITH NNWWD-MOVING CELLS MOVING ACROSS THE FL
KEYS...A CLUSTER OF WEAKLY-ROTATING STORMS IS ALSO INDICATED FROM
THE TAMPA AREA EWD INTO OSCEOLA AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES -- INVOF
WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE LYING W-E ACROSS THIS AREA. THREE TORNADOES
HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE PAST HOUR
-- ONE IN HARDEE COUNTY AND TWO
IN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY...AND THREAT SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THIS REGION
INVOF SURFACE BOUNDARY -- WHERE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/VORTICITY
EXISTS.
EXPECT OVERALL TORNADO THREAT TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND S FL
WITH TIME...AS CENTER OF WILMA CONTINUES EASING CLOSER TO THE SWRN
FL PENINSULA.
..GOSS.. 10/23/2005
...PLEASE SEE www.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW...JAX...

well its down hill now til she passes:


typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 07:07 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Quote:

latest MESO out of SPC: (storm prediction center)
..............................
EXPECT OVERALL TORNADO THREAT TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND S FL
WITH TIME...AS CENTER OF WILMA CONTINUES EASING CLOSER TO THE SWRN
FL PENINSULA.
..GOSS.. 10/23/2005
...PLEASE SEE www.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW...JAX...

well its down hill now til she passes:




It's the extraordinary SRH - Storm Relative Halicity - that is in the area associated with that boundary... Winds across the horizontal depth of the surface trough are backing S to N, from the SSE to the ENE... Compounding, you still have to deal with the conservation of angular momentum by land falling hurricanes, and the local spin ups... Basically what you got there are over-lapping mechanics for twisters... Could be an interesting night; could almost envision tornado swarms...


pcola
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Oct 23 2005 07:07 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

I noticed the ene motion on the radar also...I know radar can be deceiving, but a ene motion at this point would be a nice thing

Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Oct 23 2005 07:10 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Satellite still shows NE .. There maybe wobbles from time to time or stair stepping. Also keep in mind the radar is deceiving.

damejune2
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Oct 23 2005 07:12 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

We just had our first squalls come in. Not too gusty yet, but some good hard rain and two tornado warnings - one in Sarasota county and one in Hardee county.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Oct 23 2005 07:16 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

still looks like a nasty cell on the turnpike area...
(edit: appears this cell is heading north along that county line..)

warning text
here's a better site that may help show locations on a map....
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/mlb_N0Z_lp.shtml

NOTE* tune to local NWS radio or local TV media for latest...
cuz the internet may not always be up to date!!!

Also was looking at that "violent waterspout" in vis shots... did see the cell had some overshooting to its cloud tops... appears it will stay offshore... it's between radars now and starting to show up on tampa nexrad.


willw
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Oct 23 2005 07:18 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sun Oct 23 2005 07:19 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Hey all please use This thread to report conditions in your area.

ParrishNStPeteFL
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Oct 23 2005 07:22 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Heavy rain and lightening has begun in st. pete. I too am concerned about tornados at night, at least in Oklahoma and Texas there are sirens..lol...Good luck to all, thanks for important information.

typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 07:28 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Quote:

Satellite still shows NE .. There maybe wobbles from time to time or stair stepping. Also keep in mind the radar is deceiving.




She ought to start gaining some latitude pretty soon if she's gonna make Napels... I'm still registering an almost due E motion on: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Oct 23 2005 07:31 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

radar beams are not that accurate that far out.... where eye is now... would be shooting up 25ft and higher... so low "surface center" could be just little off.... expect a wobble all night.... shear to me is not all that bad... she's not feeling to much of effect from the second cold front.... yet!

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 07:35 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

There has been a fairly significant improvement in the satellite presentation of Wilma in the last couple of hours. The eye is showing up much better on the most recent image (2315Z) and there is deepening convection around the center. On the long-range Key West radar, the eye looks to be a little irregularly shaped, but that may be an artifact since the west eyewall is just barely in radar range.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Oct 23 2005 07:35 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

cell is slowly moving:

College of DuPage Meteorology Radar Loop - MLB


typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 07:37 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Quote:

radar beams are not that accurate that far out.... where eye is now... would be shooting up 25ft and higher... so low "surface center" could be just little off.... expect a wobble all night.... shear to me is not all that bad... she's not feeling to much of effect from the second cold front.... yet!




honestly, i don't think shear is going to be that big of a factor with wilma... she's moving along smartyly with the flow, where as, if she were somehow resisting she'd be more susceptible to shear.. . as long as she keeps moving along and accelerating she's actually more likely to behave as though she were in a light upper wind environment..


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 07:41 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Still not much sign from the satellite of any shear adversely affecting Wilma at the present time. Upper-level winds are increasing to the north of the system, which is enhancing the outflow to the N and E. Sooner or later, Wilma will start to feel more shear from the southwest, but for the next few hours at least it may intensify some more.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Oct 23 2005 07:42 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

yeah... agree and that's not good... i do think she will make it up to cat 3 now... ((low end!))
like others said.... appearance on sats is improving... but would only expect the "core of strong" winds in a small area near landfall... almost like dennis this year.... charley last year... the main strong winds in a very small area.... well see how she does tonight!


typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 07:42 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Quote:

There has been a fairly significant improvement in the satellite presentation of Wilma in the last couple of hours. The eye is showing up much better on the most recent image (2315Z) and there is deepening convection around the center. On the long-range Key West radar, the eye looks to be a little irregularly shaped, but that may be an artifact since the west eyewall is just barely in radar range.




absolutely...there is definitely an attenuation issue....BUT, what i'm wondering is why this still looks like it's got so much east component - don't think attenuation actually causes storm motion issues...

anyway...i agree with the intensity profiling you've made... i wrote a post awhile back regarding what i suspect might be a narrow window for rapid or near rapid intensification rates.. furthering those points:
a) storm relative shear is quite low now that she is moving along quickly and this will allow her to avail of a in situ lighter u/a
b) she's making use of having traversed the some pretty dern warm heat content during the day
c) ...finally, the enterance region of u/a wind maxim is beginning to excite her polarward outflow channel, which should give her some core ascending assisting for a short time.


vvvteddybearvvv
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Oct 23 2005 07:45 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

please rember the chat room is open for discussion and makes for instant feedback me and a lot of others will be camping out their all night to get thir you go to http://irc.flhurricane.com/

emackl
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Oct 23 2005 07:47 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Will someone please plot these cords? Didn't the GFDL 18 run just have a shift north? I know how to plot but I dont have a plot form and it's hard on the computer.
Thanks
Jackie

ROFL, It's wigged me out so bad I forgot the link:

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/05102323


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Oct 23 2005 07:47 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

looks like little sis (alpha) tried to make a comeback.... not to often we see two systems....including this late in the season!!!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/IR4/20.jpg

loop that goes with above:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Oct 23 2005 07:50 PM
Shear

I just checked the Nexrad Wind Profilers in Southern Florida.
Key West-max of 78kts at 19000ft.
Miami- max of 45kts at 20000ft.
Tampa-max of 58kts at 45000ft.

All of the current winds on the profilers appear to be unidirectional.
Dr Greg Forbes at TWC just displayed One front as Stationary from North of Ft Myers to the Melbourne area.
With SE winds on the south side of the front and NE winds on the North side. Combined with Wilma's wind field this is probably the setup for the spin associated with the Tornado Warnings.

00Z Soundings aren't in as of yet.
12Z soundings from Key West indicated a helicity of near 150m/s/s., and Tampa's helicity was near 100m/s/s.
(I hope I got the m/s/s correct~danielw)


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Oct 23 2005 07:51 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

also a mod could post these links on front page:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/wilma.html wilma imagery

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/alpha.html alpha imagery


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 07:51 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Quote:

Quote:

There has been a fairly significant improvement in the satellite presentation of Wilma in the last couple of hours. The eye is showing up much better on the most recent image (2315Z) and there is deepening convection around the center. On the long-range Key West radar, the eye looks to be a little irregularly shaped, but that may be an artifact since the west eyewall is just barely in radar range.




absolutely...there is definitely an attenuation issue....BUT, what i'm wondering is why this still looks like it's got so much east component - don't think attenuation actually causes storm motion issues...

anyway...i agree with the intensity profiling you've made... i wrote a post awhile back regarding what i suspect might be a narrow window for rapid or near rapid intensification rates.. furthering those points:
a) storm relative shear is quite low now that she is moving along quickly and this will allow her to avail of a in situ lighter u/a
b) she's making use of having traversed the some pretty dern warm heat content during the day
c) ...finally, the enterance region of u/a wind maxim is beginning to excite her polarward outflow channel, which should give her some core ascending assisting for a short time.




I generally agree with your analysis, though Wilma still has some issues to deal with before that happens. Can the eye clear out (still some stubborn old eyewall fragments around the center) and can the eye contract enough to allow for a more rapid deepening? I guess we are about to find out.


typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 07:51 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Quote:

looks like little sis (alpha) tried to make a comeback.... not to often we see two systems....including this late in the season!!!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/IR4/20.jpg

loop that goes with above:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html




...honestly...not intending to toot one's owh horn here but i discussed that in hammered intensity in a lengthy post near the beginning of this thread....
...and, yes, i agree, not only trying to come back but it is uncertain how much that come-back really will be, and therefore, an issue for me that it isn't getting more consideration further n and even w, as the synoptics seem to connote it "should" be gobbled up in the more massive circulation of wilma and her transition into some kind of exotic ne u.s. coastal event..


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Oct 23 2005 07:55 PM
Hurricane Local Statements-Updated

Here is a link to the Updated Hurricane Local Statements.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/index_hls4.shtml

Please check them frequently for updates specific to your area.
They are not to replace any other information. Just to localize some of the information.~danielw


typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 07:57 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

There has been a fairly significant improvement in the satellite presentation of Wilma in the last couple of hours. The eye is showing up much better on the most recent image (2315Z) and there is deepening convection around the center. On the long-range Key West radar, the eye looks to be a little irregularly shaped, but that may be an artifact since the west eyewall is just barely in radar range.




absolutely...there is definitely an attenuation issue....BUT, what i'm wondering is why this still looks like it's got so much east component - don't think attenuation actually causes storm motion issues...

anyway...i agree with the intensity profiling you've made... i wrote a post awhile back regarding what i suspect might be a narrow window for rapid or near rapid intensification rates.. furthering those points:
a) storm relative shear is quite low now that she is moving along quickly and this will allow her to avail of a in situ lighter u/a
b) she's making use of having traversed the some pretty dern warm heat content during the day
c) ...finally, the enterance region of u/a wind maxim is beginning to excite her polarward outflow channel, which should give her some core ascending assisting for a short time.




I generally agree with your analysis, though Wilma still has some issues to deal with before that happens. Can the eye clear out (still some stubborn old eyewall fragments around the center) and can the eye contract enough to allow for a more rapid deepening? I guess we are about to find out.




...i know...and the trouble is that the 'contracting eyewall' scenario is like the latter half of an erc - lose analogy because it is unclear much of this strange core appearance was for that cause to begin with... trouble with that is, there is really poor predictive skill for timing contractions and so forth... what she really needs is a burst of deep convection amid the inner aspect, to lower that pressure and drive the wind field tighter in... the 8pm advisory is coming out now so we should get a fix on pp... if we see a 5mb drop we can bet that contraction is either underway or about to begin.


CaneTrackerInSoFl
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Oct 23 2005 07:57 PM
Re: Hurricane Local Statements-Updated

New advisory in, pressure down to 958, winds up to 110. Still heading NE, now at 15.

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 07:57 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

URNT12 KNHC 232353
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/23:33:20Z
B. 23 deg 59 min N
084 deg 27 min W
C. 700 mb 2744 m
D. 50 kt
E. 312 deg 101 nm
F. 073 deg 071 kt
G. 309 deg 046 nm
H. 959 mb
I. 9 C/ 3033 m
J. 15 C/ 3049 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF305 2424A WILMA OB 06
MAX FL WIND 71 KT NE QUAD 23:19:50 Z
GOOD SPIRAL BANDING


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Oct 23 2005 07:57 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

just to confirm our posts:

HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
... WILMA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHENING AS IT
GRADUALLY ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA...
...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS IMPACTING WESTERN CUBA AND
APPROACHING THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...

here we go at 9:00pm

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...23.9 N... 84.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 958 MB.
HOURLY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATES WILL BE ISSUED BEGINNING
AT 9 PM EDT . THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.
FORECASTER STEWART


LizL
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Oct 23 2005 07:57 PM
Re: Hurricane Local Statements-Updated

BREAKING NOTE:

Due to the potential of tropical storm force winds associated with Hurricane Wilma, all four Walt Disney World Theme Parks, Typhoon Lagoon, Downtown Disney and Disney’s Wide World of Sports will not open tomorrow morning, Monday, October 24. Weather permitting, Walt Disney World may reopen one or more theme parks after the storm passes on Monday to entertain the tens of thousands of Guests currently staying in our resort hotels.


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Oct 23 2005 07:58 PM
Updated

The Weather Channel is reporting that Wilma's wind speed is now up to 110mph.
Her pressure has dropped a little too!

I can't find a link for this yet, but will post it a.s.a.p~danielw

DATA FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT THIS EVENING
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE NOW INCREASED TO NEAR 110
MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A STRONG CATEGORY
TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY... AND WILMA
COULD BE NEAR CATEGORY THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE... STRENGTH AS IT
NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST MONDAY MORNING.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/232354.shtml


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 07:59 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Pressure steady at 959 mb in the last vortex, though the dropsonde that recorded that pressure measured 15 knots at the surface, so based on that and the drop in 700mb height, the actual pressure is probably 957-958 mb. Still a slow drop, but nothing rapid yet. That is probably still a couple of hours away if it is going to happen.

typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 08:00 PM
Re: Shear

Quote:

I just checked the Nexrad Wind Profilers in Southern Florida.
Key West-max of 78kts at 19000ft.
Miami- max of 45kts at 20000ft.
Tampa-max of 58kts at 45000ft.

All of the current winds on the profilers appear to be unidirectional.
Dr Greg Forbes at TWC just displayed One front as Stationary from North of Ft Myers to the Melbourne area.
With SE winds on the south side of the front and NE winds on the North side. Combined with Wilma's wind field this is probably the setup for the spin associated with the Tornado Warnings.

00Z Soundings aren't in as of yet.
12Z soundings from Key West indicated a helicity of near 150m/s/s., and Tampa's helicity was near 100m/s/s.
(I hope I got the m/s/s correct~danielw)




Hi DanielW... I wrote this in a post earlier in this thread and I believe the reasoning is still quite valid:
It's the extraordinary SRH - Storm Relative Halicity - that is in the area associated with that boundary... Winds across the horizontal depth of the surface trough are backing S to N, from the SSE to the ENE... Compounding, you still have to deal with the conservation of angular momentum by land falling hurricanes, and the local spin ups... Basically what you got there are over-lapping mechanics for twisters... Could be an interesting night; could almost envision tornado swarms...[\i]


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Oct 23 2005 08:01 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ESTIMATED TO BE
958 MB...28.29 INCHES.


Big Red Machine
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Oct 23 2005 08:01 PM
Re: Updated

recon reporting 104 kt winds.

959 mb pressure.



edit: sorry daniel... you beat me by a second buddy. Great minds think alike.


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Oct 23 2005 08:04 PM
Re: Updated

with houly updates starting next hour... wouldn't be susprised if it happens in 9:00hr... she close to a cat three now... clouds tops on east side are pretty cold.... see how she does with recon out there now....

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/byx_N0Z_lp.shtml


Big Tk
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Oct 23 2005 08:06 PM
Re: Shear

If this storm really decides to get it's act together. will there be a change in direction?

typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 08:07 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Quote:

just to confirm our posts:

HURRICANE WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
... WILMA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHENING AS IT
GRADUALLY ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA...
...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS IMPACTING WESTERN CUBA AND
APPROACHING THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...

here we go at 9:00pm

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...23.9 N... 84.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 958 MB.
HOURLY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATES WILL BE ISSUED BEGINNING
AT 9 PM EDT . THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.
FORECASTER STEWART




right, not surprising...and now we see the -80 sinister black toned cloud tops of utter terror returning to an attempt at a cdo...

it's likely to me that this will in the process of deepening fairly quickly for the next several hours, just as we said - which is somewhat unusual climatologically for hurricanes moving NE in this area of the Gulf, quite frankly, but that's a whole angle i don't want to get into now..

nonetheless, i feel fairly confident that this will be the case because of wilma's unique orientation with respect to her own motion - within the flow and thus relatively less shear; and, availing of a very intense polarward outflow channel associated with the enterance region of jet fields NW of the stationary/quasi-stationary boundary.


CaneTrackerInSoFl
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Oct 23 2005 08:09 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

I just read that Recon has now found flight level winds of 110. Which should equate to a cat 3 if I am not mistaken, right?



Note: This is unconfirmed as of this time.


EDIT: It is confirmed.


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sun Oct 23 2005 08:12 PM
Re: Updated

What I saw happening and posted about this morning & last night has just started. Timing worked out to be very good for increase in intensity, with the exception the eyewall is still quite large. The 2245Z wv sat image shows she finally got the core tog. Since T12 has started quoting himself maybe I'll try to dig up my post from last night and do the same.

Now expect some strengthening, for some hours will be rapid strengthening, until about 1-2am.

One of the things that has helped her a lot the past 4-5 hours is the feeder band she developed from the Caribbean, where the air is much less dry than the GOM.

Here it is, from noonish...part of my earlier post:

"Looks like some quick intensification starting tonight, if she continues to slowly organize. Again timing of how far along she is in the reorg process when she hits the loop current will determine this to a large extent, even with the other things that factor into intensity."


typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 08:12 PM
Re: Shear

Quote:

If this storm really decides to get it's act together. will there be a change in direction?




Not likely... Wilma is caught up in the deep layer winds associated with veering and a large negative anomaly in the Ohio Valley (deep trough).... In fact, the only change will make is determined on the orientation of the isoheights she's locked in; they may actually orient more S to N post Florida visit, which would mean a smooth curve N up the coast... But, that will be subtle and registered over longer time lengths... You won't have to worry "as much" about short duration abrupty changes and large wobbles in her track. for lack of better words - locked into governing synoptics of said trough and how it is mass-balanced against ridges.


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 08:14 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

The last recon did not report an eye at all, but instead noted good spiral banding. Perhaps they are also seeing the oddly shaped eye that is apparent from the long-range Key West radar, which seems to be comprised of more than one arc of convection.

typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 08:16 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Quote:

I just read that Recon has now found flight level winds of 110. Which should equate to a cat 3 if I am not mistaken, right?



Note: This is unconfirmed as of this time.




Depends...if that is a flight level none-extrapolated wind field, then you have to take note of the altitude and then fix it to the surface using standard conversion ratios for that altitude...example, 950mb I believe is 90%...So, 110kts =~ 99kts at the surface... I rarely do this conversion so check these number on the web or through other astute users. If that is already the surface estimate though, that's it: it's 110kts... and if that is the case, you'd have somewhere's around the mid 120's mph in common terms. But, I think that was a flight level estimate you've got there??


Big Tk
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Oct 23 2005 08:17 PM
Re: Shear

Is there any possibility of this storm hitting north of Fort myers. Because i believe that would put tampa in Hurricane force winds.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Oct 23 2005 08:18 PM
Re: Shear

not sure about this warning text.... understand the warning but....

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
812 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A
.. TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL BREVARD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CAMP HOLLY FISH CAMP
.. UNTIL 900 PM EDT
.. AT 810 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CAMP HOLLY FISH CAMP...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.
.. THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
CAMP HOLLY FISH CAMP BY 830 PM EDT
TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE OFTEN WRAPPED IN
HEAVY RAIN AND ARE HARD TO SEE OR HEAR UNTIL THEY ARE VERY CLOSE. DO
NOT GET CAUGHT OFFGUARD!
TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE. WATCH FOR THE POPPING OF
ELECTRIC LINES AND TRANSFORMERS OR LISTEN FOR THE SOUND OF LOUD
RUMBLING AS THAT OF AN APPROACHING FREIGHT TRAIN.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.

BEST ADVICE.... don't wait to hear or "see" it.... if its in your area take cover in a interior room or closet away from windows... DON'T look/WATCH for "POPPING OF ELECTRIC LINES"...especially at night.... MOST likely you will not see it!!!!


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Oct 23 2005 08:18 PM
Extrapolated Track

Using the last Two Recon Fixes.
I plotted the heading up to the Florida Coast.

On the Current heading. The Center would come ashore just East of Marco Island.
This is 196.31nm from the 2333Z Recon Center Fix.

Do Not Fix the storm on this point. This is just an extrapolated track. Based on her heading over a 3 hour time frame.~danielw

Remember...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM THE CENTER
...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.


Lysis
(User)
Sun Oct 23 2005 08:20 PM
Re: Updated

What effects, if any, would a stronger intensity have on Wilma’s track, specifically in regards with her interaction with the surrounding synoptic environment? Obviously, I am having trouble wrapping my mind around this whole setup --which is fascinating to say the least.

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 08:20 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

The most recent supplementary vortex message found a max flight-level wind of 110 kts in the SE quadrant. It was roughly 40 miles from the center with slowly increasing winds between the center and where the max winds were found, so the wind center is still pretty broad, as you would expect from the satellite.

OUTBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01238 10842 13750 11413 22044
02236 20841 23792 21212 23075
03235 30839 33868 30909 23103
04233 40837 43929 40909 22094
05231 50835 53965 50808 22086
MF235 M0840 MF110



CaneTrackerInSoFl
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Oct 23 2005 08:21 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Yeah, thats why I said flight level winds of 110.

typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 08:25 PM
Re: Shear

Quote:

not sure about this warning text.... understand the warning but....

............................
TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE OFTEN WRAPPED IN
HEAVY RAIN AND ARE HARD TO SEE OR HEAR UNTIL THEY ARE VERY CLOSE. DO
NOT GET CAUGHT OFFGUARD!
TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE. WATCH FOR THE POPPING OF
ELECTRIC LINES AND TRANSFORMERS OR LISTEN FOR THE SOUND OF LOUD
RUMBLING AS THAT OF AN APPROACHING FREIGHT TRAIN.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.

BEST ADVICE.... don't wait to hear or "see" it.... if its in your area take cover in a interior room or closet away from windows... DON'T look/WATCH for "POPPING OF ELECTRIC LINES"...especially at night.... MOST likely you will not see it!!!!




Actually, having grown up in the Midwest before moving to eastern Massachusetts I can vouch for this.. This is standard for nighttime alert statements and actually makes a good deal of sense. In 1980, an F3 twister tore through downtown Kalamazoo, Mi, and I stood there frozen in awe watching from about a mile away before large hail brought me to run home... You know how when you have a bad dream and you can't run fast... It was that incarnate... Anyway, in the distance you could hear a) a low pitched hum/rumble and b) the sound of various debris popping and snapping... If it's not daylight and you cannot see these things taking place, you have to trust your ears that if that sound is unusual and kind of like...scary sounding? It is, and TAKE COVER.


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Oct 23 2005 08:26 PM
Radius of Winds

Using the hypothetical Landfall Location, just east of Marcos Island.
Would give Hurricane Force winds south of a Bradenton to Melbourne.
And Tropical Storm winds from the Suwannee River to near Jacksonville.


Again...this is a hypothetical area. Based on Wilma's movement over the 3 hour period from 2030Z to 2330Z.~danielw

See Skeetobite's Map pages for graphic versions.


typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 08:26 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Quote:

Yeah, thats why I said flight level winds of 110.




cool - what is the flight level ...i.e, 950mb, 700mb ...etc?


CaneTrackerInSoFl
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Oct 23 2005 08:28 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Quote:

Quote:

Yeah, thats why I said flight level winds of 110.




cool - what is the flight level ...i.e, 950mb, 700mb ...etc?



I believe 950.


trinibaje
(Weather Guru)
Sun Oct 23 2005 08:28 PM
Re: Radius of Winds

Quote:

Using the hypothetical Landfall Location, just east of Marcos Island.
Would give Hurricane Force winds south of a Bradenton to Melbourne.
And Tropical Storm winds from the Suwannee River to near Jacksonville.


Again...this is a hypothetical area. Based on Wilma's movement over the 3 hour period from 2030Z to 2330Z.~danielw

See Skeetobite's Map pages for graphic versions.




stupid question.. don't laugh.... that would include miami dade county right?

btw danny i attempted to shutter the house.. but i didn't get finish.. but i have a secure area to be in the downstairs area... hope all goes well...


garrison
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Oct 23 2005 08:29 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Looks like 120 -125ish, at landfall, just S of Marco Island,

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Oct 23 2005 08:30 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

live radar from wesh 2 in orlando

http://mfile.akamai.com/12890/live/reflector:38190.asx


amonty
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 08:30 PM
Attachment
Re: Shear

Heres what i've picked up on my GRLevel3 software.

See attachment above~danielw


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Oct 23 2005 08:32 PM
Re: Shear

latest information for central florida:
http://www.wesh.com/news/5131657/detail.html


also here's a link to a WESH met flying with the G-IV crew two days ago i think... maybe yesterday..
http://www.wesh.com/video/5146967/index.html


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sun Oct 23 2005 08:33 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Quote:

what is the flight level ...I believe 950.




I don't think so!


garrison
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Oct 23 2005 08:36 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

700 MB is FL, 950 would be skirting the tree tops

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Oct 23 2005 08:36 PM
Hypothetical Wind Fields

Using the hypothetical Landfall Location, just east of Marcos Island.

This would give an area of Hurricane Force winds south of a Bradenton to Melbourne line. The Southern Half Of the Florida Peninsula.

And Tropical Storm force winds from the Suwannee River to near Jacksonville line. Basically the Whole Folrida Peninsula!


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 08:37 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Quote:

Quote:

Yeah, thats why I said flight level winds of 110.




cool - what is the flight level ...i.e, 950mb, 700mb ...etc?




The flight-level is 700mb. A 950mb flight level would not be advised in this situation.

The "eye" has cleared out even more on the 0015Z IR image, though there appear to be bands of convection to the SW and NE of the center that are impinging on the eye, giving it an oblong appearance. It gives the impression of a smaller eye trying to form by wrapping bands of convection closer into the center.


typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 08:37 PM
Re: Shear

Quote:

Is there any possibility of this storm hitting north of Fort myers. Because i believe that would put tampa in Hurricane force winds.




Firstly, any prediction I render is not official..... It is important that you know that.

Right now, the odds for Wilma-centroid impact on the Tampa/Fort Myers area directly, is lessoning... HOWEVER I cannot stress enough that Wilma is a big critter with a large circumvellate, and you should by no means think this means you're off the hook.. Tropical storm force sustained winds and possible gusts to at least hurricane force, particularly in more intense near CDO type feeder band squalls will rake said areas, even if Wilma's core stays over southern sections. In addition, this TC is apparently already become tornado happy...there are some other circumstances in the area, which are compounding this, accentuating that threat... Numerous tornado warnings have already flown and this will also add to dangers in peripheral areas not being directly assaulted by her core. So, please, if you are in the Tampa/Fort Myers areas, treat this as though you are being directly impacted and pay very close attention to your local instructions by municipalities, because their advise (more times that not) will be advise that may save your life.

off the record, you should have 40 -70 mph winds; the latter more in gusts, which could even be higher... Right now, and this is MY opinion only, Wilma appears slightly S of predicted track... Doesn't mean she won't start hooking N in the next few hours, but that is less likely...So, I personally do not believe Naples will be the landfall, but like I said, a big nasty powerful beast makes the pin point center of circulation almost irrelevant.


CaneTrackerInSoFl
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Oct 23 2005 08:38 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

LOL. I can't read those reports well yet. Haven't taken the time to study how to read em. :P

swimaway19
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Oct 23 2005 08:39 PM
Re: Shear

What do you think the time of landfall will be? The local mets say around 8am, but that sounds a little late to me

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Oct 23 2005 08:42 PM
Re: Shear

I have the Hypothetical track on some software here.

As Soon as I get another Vortex fix I will plot that and update whether she appears to be on That track or a different track.

As Tip said. The Tornado Threat is very, very real right now. And It will Only GET WORSE. As Wilma is traversing the state and interacting with a frontal boundary and jet stream.
Take ALL Tornado Warnings seriously...and Take Cover.


civil2183
(Registered User)
Sun Oct 23 2005 08:42 PM
Re: Shear

Hmmm, I believe tropical system usually spin off weaker tornadoes (F1 - F2). Would this low hum/rumble sound be as easy to hear as it was with the F3?

typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 08:43 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Yeah, thats why I said flight level winds of 110.




cool - what is the flight level ...i.e, 950mb, 700mb ...etc?



I believe 950.




Ok - so that should be a 90% conversion... or 99kts at the surface 114mph ...just shy of cat 3...But there is time and an ever improving sat/rad structure...It's just a matter of time - not that I wish that on anyone!!


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Oct 23 2005 08:47 PM
Re: Shear

Quote:

Hmmm, I believe tropical system usually spin off weaker tornadoes (F1 - F2). Would this low hum/rumble sound be as easy to hear as it was with the F3?




Katrina and Rita both spun off F1, F2 and a few F3's in MS and LA.

They all tear up the neighborhood. Some worse than others. I believe the first fatality in MS was from an F2 in the Delta near Belzoni,MS.


typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 08:52 PM
Re: Shear

Quote:

Hmmm, I believe tropical system usually spin off weaker tornadoes (F1 - F2). Would this low hum/rumble sound be as easy to hear as it was with the F3?




ah kinda....you'd hear it... trust me!


Joshua
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Oct 23 2005 08:55 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Quote:

LOL. I can't read those reports well yet. Haven't taken the time to study how to read em. :P




http://flhurricane.com/recon/

You can now read them


DrMos
(Registered User)
Sun Oct 23 2005 08:57 PM
Re: Extrapolated Track

Based on the 2pm vs. 8pm changes coordinates, it appears Wilma is gaining 0.8 degrees of latitude for every 0.9 degrees of longitude. Going by the 5pm vs. 8pm coordinates Wilma is gaining 0.8 degrees latitude for every 1.0 degree of longitude.

Assuming the 5pm vs 8pm numbers, extrapolation from her current lat/lon of 23.9n, 84.4w would seem to bring Wilma farther north than your calculations. For example,
23.9n, 84.4w
24.7n, 83.4w
25.5n, 82.4w
25.9n, 81.9w

That would bring Wilma onshore somewhere just north of Naples. Do you agree? Moreover, if the 2pm vs. 8pm coordinate changes are used, then that brings landfall even closer to FMY, assuming extrapolation of course.


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Oct 23 2005 08:57 PM
Relayed Post

This was sent to me in a PM.
From: Rdietch

Well i can't post till after the storm but anyway i do wish everyone well down there Naples and below.You know im not a wishcaster but did say south of Naples on here 4 days ago so im close but really i wished it would dissapate...

I agree with him wishing you guys the best~danielw
Oh, and I asked him if I could post this. I did edit out the latter portion of it.


OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Oct 23 2005 08:58 PM
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

We have a pretty strong burst of conection now in the last frame of the IR loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

See the 00:15 UTC image.


Beaumont, TX
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Oct 23 2005 08:58 PM
Re: Shear

I do not know if any tornadoes were recorded in Beaumont but Rita had to have spun off some tornadoes or at least tornadic winds
here.If you look at the destruction you'd know some of it had to be tornadic. Also, the few people I know who
stayed heard the "freight train" sounds. Of course, there is wind damage absolutely everywhere
but the way some of the trees were broken off and twisted it looks like tornado damage. Looks like Wilma may make it to Cat 3.
I hope everyone has evacuated that needed to and that all have made preparations. Will be thinking of everyone and hope for the
best.


CaneTrackerInSoFl
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:00 PM
Re: Relayed Post

Quote:

This was sent to me in a PM.
From: Rdietch

Well i can't post till after the storm but anyway i do wish everyone well down there Naples and below.You know im not a wishcaster but did say south of Naples on here 4 days ago so im close but really i wished it would dissapate...

I agree with him wishing you guys the best~danielw
Oh, and I asked him if I could post this. I did edit out the latter portion of it.



In that case, I did tell my uncle and several other people Last Sunday that I thought it would hit Naples or a little south of. Not wishcasting, just was taking into account climatology and models.


typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:01 PM
Re: Shear

Quote:

What do you think the time of landfall will be? The local mets say around 8am, but that sounds a little late to me




..Take her reco fix translation speed (15mph) and devide it into the distance she is from landfall (or whatever location it is you are interested in) on the heading she's currently on... They are saying NE (which I'm in argument over.... guess I'll have to just suck it up but DanielW recently said he'd help us out by dong a plot analysis soon...) Anyway, the 8pm intermediate advisory had her on 15mph at 365km..."SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA." ....~225miles from the southwest coast of the Penisula... NOTE That provided it stays on this heading and speed, which is not a certainty. If anything, she "should" gain latitude and accelerate, but we'll leave that aside and just say that 225/15 is about 15hours ...I suspect with acceleration this will be around 12z monday morning, however.. So I agree with them...


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:02 PM
Re: Extrapolated Track

I haven't looked at the NHC plots.

I came up with 25min N and 36min E over 3:30.
That would be 0.4N and 0.6E in decimals.
I use the dd mmm format from the aircraft, and convert it to decimals. Divide the minutes(mm) by 60 to get decimals.


OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:03 PM
Re: Shear

You can just barely see how the cold front is starting to interact with the farthest northerly outflow of Wilma on this loop. Look how the farthest north outflow gets pushed just a tad to the south:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-ir4-loop.html


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:04 PM
Re: Shear

I will tell you what we have been experiencing here in Lakeland...T-storms started about 5pm and the most intense had to be from 6-7:30pm. We probably got a .25 to .50" of rain. Lots of lightning and thunder, but not too much wind.
Humidity is still there outside, temperature reading is about 81.
Hope that all in the path of Wilma stay safe as it looks like this storm may be nastier than expected.
Colleen


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:07 PM
Re: Extrapolated Track

The eye is clearing out at a rapid rate now.

She appears to be Cat 3 on sat images.

She now has time to achive Cat 4 status before weakening.


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:09 PM
Re: Shear

SPC has upgraded the severe weather risk from "Slight" to "Moderate" over about the southern half of the peninsula. While that may not sound too bad, keep in mind that they only use three risk levels (slight, moderate, high), with "High" risk generally reserved for big tornado outbreak-type days in the Plains. A Moderate Risk is pretty rare for a landfalling hurricane scenario, so the risk of tornadoes is considered to be somewhat greater than normal for a tropical cyclone:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html


FRONTAL ZONE HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA...ROUGHLY ALONG/NORTH OF A TAMPA/MELBOURNE LINE. THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...ENHANCED CONVERGENCE JUST SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE HAS
PROVIDE MAIN FORCING/FOCUS FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN TROPICAL BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

AS AMPLIFICATION OF CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
CONTINUES TONIGHT...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG SHORT WAVE DIGGING
INTO THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS...NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF HURRICANE WILMA INTO
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS WILL OCCUR BY 12Z MONDAY. AS OUTER
CONVECTIVE BANDS BEGIN TO SPREAD INLAND LATER THIS EVENING...AND
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS/SHEAR STRENGTHEN WITH APPROACH OF TROPICAL
SYSTEM...TORNADIC POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN FLORIDA. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY EVIDENT
IN LATEST SOUNDINGS...THIS RISK APPEARS RELATIVELY SUBSTANTIAL.
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES
EXISTS...PARTICULARLY LATE TONIGHT IN OUTER BANDS EAST/NORTHEAST OF
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS IT APPROACHES LANDFALL.


Genesis
(Weather Guru)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:10 PM
Re: Shear

Quote:

Hmmm, I believe tropical system usually spin off weaker tornadoes (F1 - F2). Would this low hum/rumble sound be as easy to hear as it was with the F3?




I used to chase tornadoes when I lived further north.

Been near several, and through two (one of which had not touched down yet - it went right over the top of me.)

You will hear it, unless you're in the middle of the hurricane and the entire house sounds like its going to come apart already, in which case loud is just loud (e.g. during Ivan last year, I doubt I would have heard a tornado before it got me, simply due to the lack of time to react from the time the sound was distinct from the hurricane's general noisefield to when the vortex got me.)

But in this case, where you're expecting tropical storm sustained winds, yes, you will hear it - provided it doesn't drop down right on top of you (which they can!)

Ivan last year kicked off a bunch of smaller tornadoes around here and an F3 that ripped through Marianna. The destruction path on the latter one was unreal; a friend of mine's home took a tree-spear through the roof; the next lot over was wiped completely clean - the house formerly there was cleanly removed from the foundation with the pieces distributed over a wide area.

Please don't take the threat of tornadoes lightly, and if you wake up in the middle of the night hearing something loud and odd......


typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:11 PM
Re: Extrapolated Track

Quote:

I haven't looked at the NHC plots.

I came up with 25min N and 36min E over 3:30.
That would be 0.4N and 0.6E in decimals.
I use the dd mmm format from the aircraft, and convert it to decimals. Divide the minutes(mm) by 60 to get decimals.




Goes to show you what a fool's errand basing early radar fixes can turn out to be... Because now that she is firmly coming into range on: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml ....I can better see a N component evolving... Oh man... IF YOU LIVE IN NAPELS OR ANYWHERE FROM TAMPA SOUTH FOR THAT MATTER, STAY ON THIS RADAR IMAGE! that's going to help you tremendously.

Particularly over the next 4 hours will be telling as to where this is going to landfall, such that you will be confident with ~7-8 hours lead time awareness... This particular type of incursion to the coast is not one that will have very abrupt changes in direction and/or distracting wobbles.


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:14 PM
Oops

Thanks for the Update Tip and Thunderbird.
I can only do so much.

If you post a Tornado Warning...Post the whole thing, please.
Not the link. It might be near someone here. And the link could/would delay their seeking safety. Thanks.


JG
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:15 PM
Re: Extrapolated Track

Quote:

Quote:

I haven't looked at the NHC plots.

I came up with 25min N and 36min E over 3:30.
That would be 0.4N and 0.6E in decimals.
I use the dd mmm format from the aircraft, and convert it to decimals. Divide the minutes(mm) by 60 to get decimals.




Goes to show you what a fool's errand basing early radar fixes can turn out to be... Because now that she is firmly coming into range on: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml ....I can better see a N component evolving... Oh man... IF YOU LIVE IN NAPELS OR ANYWHERE FROM TAMPA SOUTH FOR THAT MATTER, STAY ON THIS RADAR IMAGE! that's going to help you tremendously.

Particularly over the next 4 hours will be telling as to where this is going to landfall, such that you will be confident with ~7-8 hours lead time awareness... This particular type of incursion to the coast is not one that will have very abrupt changes in direction and/or distracting wobbles.




Is it my imagination or does the southern part of the eyewall look like it's trying to close off, north of the current track. If you look at this map, it does appear a more northern trend was starting this afternoon.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex1.gif


satellite steve
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:16 PM
Re: Extrapolated Track

Consensus now is Cat 3 based on latest radar Dvorak's -- motion continues to NE -- I expect some of the discrepancy of time of landfall is that we can't extrapolate exactly the 15 mph current forward motion as it is expected to continue to accelerate -- therby landfall will prob be in 11-12hrs not the 15hrs it would take at 15mph

typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:16 PM
Re: Shear

Hmmm, I believe tropical system usually spin off weaker tornadoes (F1 - F2). Would this low hum/rumble sound be as easy to hear as it was with the F3?




I used to chase tornadoes when I lived further north.

Been near several, and through two (one of which had not touched down yet - it went right over the top of me.)

You will hear it, unless you're in the middle of the hurricane and the entire house sounds like its going to come apart already, in which case loud is just loud (e.g. during Ivan last year, I doubt I would have heard a tornado before it got me, simply due to the lack of time to react from the time the sound was distinct from the hurricane's general noisefield to when the vortex got me.)

But in this case, where you're expecting tropical storm sustained winds, yes, you will hear it - provided it doesn't drop down right on top of you (which they can!)

Ivan last year kicked off a bunch of smaller tornadoes around here and an F3 that ripped through Marianna. The destruction path on the latter one was unreal; a friend of mine's home took a tree-spear through the roof; the next lot over was wiped completely clean - the house formerly there was cleanly removed from the foundation with the pieces distributed over a wide area.

Please don't take the threat of tornadoes lightly, and if you wake up in the middle of the night hearing something loud and odd......

TAKE COVER!


collegemom
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:17 PM
Re: Shear

Please don't take the threat of tornadoes lightly, and if you wake up in the middle of the night hearing something loud and odd......

Anyone within the cone should remember to spend the majority of the storm passage in a safe environment. You might feel silly in the bathtub with a mattress over you and the kids but we had a local family (2 years ago) fly in one.
IT was the most amazing story I have ever heard.


typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:17 PM
Re: Extrapolated Track

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

I haven't looked at the NHC plots.

I came up with 25min N and 36min E over 3:30.
That would be 0.4N and 0.6E in decimals.
I use the dd mmm format from the aircraft, and convert it to decimals. Divide the minutes(mm) by 60 to get decimals.




Goes to show you what a fool's errand basing early radar fixes can turn out to be... Because now that she is firmly coming into range on: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml ....I can better see a N component evolving... Oh man... IF YOU LIVE IN NAPELS OR ANYWHERE FROM TAMPA SOUTH FOR THAT MATTER, STAY ON THIS RADAR IMAGE! that's going to help you tremendously.

Particularly over the next 4 hours will be telling as to where this is going to landfall, such that you will be confident with ~7-8 hours lead time awareness... This particular type of incursion to the coast is not one that will have very abrupt changes in direction and/or distracting wobbles.




Is it my imagination or does the southern part of the eyewall look like it's trying to close off, north of the current track. If you look at this map, it does appear a more northern trend was starting this afternoon.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex1.gif




Absolutely...And, I think when this completes we may have bigger problems then cat 2!


JG
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:21 PM
Re: Extrapolated Track

Quote:



Absolutely...And, I think when this completes we may have bigger problems then cat 2!




So there it is. I can't wait to see the vortex messages close to 2300. I think we could be looking at another Charley situation with an intensifying storm hitting between Bonita Springs and Fort Myers. The second cold front and the "dry air" and the "shear" does not seem to be intimidating Wilma one iota.


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:22 PM
Re: Extrapolated Track

Well, nice that somebody noticed! I was beginning to wonder if I should go back and make my text red / bold / large / all capital letters. No question that we now have a major hurricane that is intensifying as we watch. She is directly over the loop current now.

Since she's moving faster, my estimate that she'd intensify until about 1-2 am seems too late now, probably will peak earlier, just after midnight. Why does this always have to happen on the nights before work days? I haven't gone in early or with a decent amount of sleep for days now!


swimaway19
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:23 PM
Re: Extrapolated Track

Another question: Do you think that the windfield will expand more than projected before landfall?

JG
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:25 PM
Re: Extrapolated Track

Quote:

Another question: Do you think that the windfield will expand more than projected before landfall?




Max Mayfield answered that question on FNC about two hours ago. The answer is YES.


Joshua
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:25 PM
Re: Extrapolated Track

Quote:

Another question: Do you think that the windfield will expand more than projected before landfall?




If it intensifies, the CDO/COC may even contract. This is hard to forecast though, so stay tuned to local media and local officials (NHC/TPC)


typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:26 PM
Re: Extrapolated Track

Quote:

Quote:



Absolutely...And, I think when this completes we may have bigger problems then cat 2!




So there it is. I can't wait to see the vortex messages close to 2300. I think we could be looking at another Charley situation with an intensifying storm hitting between Bonita Springs and Fort Myers. The second cold front and the "dry air" and the "shear" does not seem to be intimidating Wilma one iota.




Exactly.... I've been trying to hammer this point, that she will be less adversely touched by these detriments because she is caught up in an in situ environment that is moving along with her - that is by definition storm relative shear, which in this case is exceptionally low in value... In otherwords, I see quite the alternative, pure, almost unmitigated strengthening potential right up to landfall - which is very, very ungood


Joshua
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:28 PM
Re: Extrapolated Track

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:



Absolutely...And, I think when this completes we may have bigger problems then cat 2!




So there it is. I can't wait to see the vortex messages close to 2300. I think we could be looking at another Charley situation with an intensifying storm hitting between Bonita Springs and Fort Myers. The second cold front and the "dry air" and the "shear" does not seem to be intimidating Wilma one iota.




Exactly.... I've been trying to hammer this point, that she will be less adversely touched by these detriments because she is caught up in an in situ environment that is moving along with her - that is by definition storm relative shear, which in this case is exceptionally low in value... In otherwords, I see quite the alternative, pure, almost unmitigated strengthening potential right up to landfall - which is very, very ungood




This is exactly why I tried to post and tell people to prepare for +1 category from the NHC track. In fact, I did that this morning. So, there really is no excuse why people should not be prepared for a major hurricane (except, of course, for being stubborn and relying too much on a past hurricane's performance)


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:28 PM
Re: Extrapolated Track

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
924 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
FLC009-240145-
/O.CON.KMLB.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-051024T0145Z/
BREVARD FL-
924 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
...TORNADIC STORM MOVING TOWARD VIERA WEST...INTERSTATE 95...AND
ROCKLEDGE...
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL
BREVARD COUNTY...
AT 919 PM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION.
THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
NEAR COCOA...OR ABOUT NEAR ROCKLEDGE...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.
THE TORNADO WILL BE CROSS INTERSTATE 95 JUST NORTHWEST OF
ROCKLEDGE...
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CANAVERAL ACRES...CANAVERAL GROVES...SHARPES...BELLWOOD AND PORT
SAINT JOHN.


satellite steve
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:29 PM
Re: Extrapolated Track

Everything is relative -- The intensification we have seen today is nothing like that of last Wed with the pressure dropping 100mb in 12 hrs

So far today the wind field has increased but no signif pressure change so far and forward speed is accelerating which will effectively increase wind speed on S of storm


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:30 PM
new watch

A new tornado watch is forthcoming that will include roughly the southern two-thirds of the Florida peninsula, including both coasts. This is the initial notification, with details coming soon:

WWUS30 KWNS 240119
SAW7
SPC AWW 240119
WW 837 TORNADO FL CW 240125Z - 241500Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
45WNW ORL/ORLANDO FL/ - 80S MIA/MIAMI FL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM EITHER SIDE /39WNW ORL - 70S MIA/
WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500.MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 18045.

REPLACES WW 836..FL CW


JG
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:30 PM
Re: Extrapolated Track

Quote:


Exactly.... I've been trying to hammer this point, that she will be less adversely touched by these detriments because she is caught up in an in situ environment that is moving along with her - that is by definition storm relative shear, which in this case is exceptionally low in value... In otherwords, I see quite the alternative, pure, almost unmitigated strengthening potential right up to landfall - which is very, very ungood




A local friend who is much more knowledgable on this subject told me that the shear, if it's in the same direction the storm is moving will not affect nor deteriorate the storm alot unless it is at a super high velocity (above 30 kts I think is what he said). Is that true? Regardless, I think Wilma is going to be like Charley. Thank you for your posts and heads up on the behaviour of this storm.


weatherwatcher2
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:32 PM
Re: Extrapolated Track

when you say like charley do you mean it might make a more southerly track?

recmod
(Weather Guru)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:33 PM
114 Knots at Flight Level!

It appears that Wilma is a solid Cat 3 now....Recon has just recorded flight level winds of 114knots

--Lou


satellite steve
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:33 PM
Re: Extrapolated Track

This cell is tracking rapidly to the N and has so far stayed inland off the beach

Appears so far to be isolated and not part of an extended band

After this passes at least for a few hours E central FL radar appears to be clear


JG
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:33 PM
Re: Extrapolated Track

Quote:

when you say like charley do you mean it might make a more southerly track?




No. More like defy the experts and do what it wants and intensify right before landfall.


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:33 PM
Re: new watch

Click the link for a graphical depiction of the watch:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0837.html

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 837
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
925 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 925 PM UNTIL
1100 AM EDT.

TORNADOES...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF ORLANDO
FLORIDA TO 80 MILES SOUTH OF MIAMI FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 836. WATCH NUMBER 836 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 925
PM EDT.

DISCUSSION...HURRICANE WILMA WILL BE CROSSING SRN FL LATER TONIGHT
AND MON AM. STRONG SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS SRN FL AND WILL
ONLY INCREASE AS WILMA APPROACHES. WITH 0OZ SRN FL SOUNDINGS
INDICATING A MDTLY UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIR MASS...THE TORNADO
POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO INCREASE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS SHEAR
BECOMES VERY STRONG.

THE FORECAST MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS AND MEAN CELL MOTION APPLY TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE THE HURRICANE EYEWALL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXTREME
TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI
WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 18045.


typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:36 PM
Re: Extrapolated Track

Quote:

Quote:


Exactly.... I've been trying to hammer this point, that she will be less adversely touched by these detriments because she is caught up in an in situ environment that is moving along with her - that is by definition storm relative shear, which in this case is exceptionally low in value... In otherwords, I see quite the alternative, pure, almost unmitigated strengthening potential right up to landfall - which is very, very ungood




A local friend who is much more knowledgable on this subject told me that the shear, if it's in the same direction the storm is moving will not affect nor deteriorate the storm alot unless it is at a super high velocity (above 30 kts I think is what he said). Is that true? Regardless, I think Wilma is going to be like Charley. Thank you for your posts and heads up on the behaviour of this storm.




Exactly - you're friend gets a gold star
Seriously, SRS - Storm Relative Shear is exactly what it sounds like... relativity... To the hurricane, the wind that is shear impactive may have the physical presents of say 5mph, which is generally not enough to inhibit strengthening. If Wilma was translating along at say...10mph, that physical presents becomes 10mph. If she were standing still, she'd be encounter all of the environmental wind field's capacity to impinge on her vertical structure, or 20mph... (I'm not saying the envir. field is 20mph - just a facsimile)... Anyway, her storm relative shear is quite low when she's already 15 or 16mph, because all the wind barbs I've seen since 00z have been about 18kts... after conversion, she's in for what...6mph of shear... Nah, not gonna touch her.


Sneakbridge
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:37 PM
Re: new watch

The eye looks huge now. How many miles wide is it?

swimaway19
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:37 PM
Re: new watch

I have been continuously watching this aforementioned link; http://www.erh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml and though I am not an expert, it looks like the SW portion of the eye wall is trying to contract even more

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:38 PM
Re: new watch

URNT12 KNHC 240135
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/01:12:40Z
B. 24 deg 15 min N
084 deg 08 min W
C. 700 mb 2732 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 142 deg 114 kt
G. 039 deg 027 nm
H. 958 mb
I. 8 C/ 3053 m
J. 14 C/ 3047 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. CO45-60
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF305 2424A WILMA OB 13
MAX FL WIND 114 KT NE QUAD 01:04:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 16 C, 225 / 24NM
OUTER EYE IS RAGGED
INNER EYE IS OPEN E-SW


chase 22
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:39 PM
Re: Extrapolated Track

This might be a better satellite to see the more Northerly component evolving

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-ir4-loop.html

I hope your wrong Tip as I live in TB and that more Northerly component wouuld bring the hurricane force wind path into and North of my area. I do have to agree with you though, as it is a meteorologically sound call. But I hope you're wrong


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:39 PM
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level!

Quote:

It appears that Wilma is a solid Cat 3 now....Recon has just recorded flight level winds of 114knots

--Lou



Hey Lou, go back and read my post from 8:07pm.

You can see the spot where they found the 16C in the eye, on the wv image.


JG
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:40 PM
Re: Extrapolated Track

typhoon_tip you've been a huge help. Makes me wish that I was good at math so I could have been a met.

Well, let's hope the tornadoes let me get some sleep tonight. My weather radio is wearing me out. Recon seems to indicate the 2300 update will call for a Cat 3. I wonder, based on your discussion with me in these recent posts, if she has enough time to get up to the 130-135 mph range before landfall.

Some folks seem to think that an 84 degree SST is not enough to support those windspeeds. What do you think?


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:41 PM
00Z Soundings

Key West Sounding
Helicity (spin) of 524m/s/s.

Tampa-Helicity of 256ms/s.

Miami-Helicity of 236m/s/s

Tip or Thunderbird12. Care to elaborate on the Helicity and the F scale if you have time.

BTW-Jeff Morrow is in Miami. He just said "I don't like the looks of that satellite right now!"~danielw


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:46 PM
Re: new watch

TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
944 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A
.. TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SHARPES...PORT SAINT JOHN
.. UNTIL 1030 PM EDT
.. AT 944 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A TORNADO OVER COCOA...APPROACHING MERRITT ISLAND...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO ON THE GROUND BETWEEN COCOA AND
MERRITT ISLAND AT 943 PM...NEAR THE HUBERT HUMPHREY BRIDGE.
.. THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVE OVER NORTH MERRITT ISLAND
AND BE NEAR...
KENNEDY SPACE CENTER BY 1010 PM EDT
THE IMMEDIATE DANGER OF A TORNADO IS HIGH. PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THIS
TORNADO ARE URGED TO QUICKLY PREPARE FOR ITS APPROACH. THIS IS A
DANGEROUS SITUATION! ACT NOW...SECONDS CAN SAVE LIVES!!
IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF A TORNADO...THE SAFEST PLACE IS IN A STRONG
BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A
BATHROOM OR CLOSET. KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF NECESSARY...GET UNDER
A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR
PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY. ABANDON YOUR MOBILE HOME OR RV FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...GET INTO AN
UNFLOODED DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS AND
ARMS. ABANDON YOUR VEHICLE IF THE TORNADO IS NEARBY.


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:48 PM
Re: new watch

Still only slow intensification noted on the latest recon, though as Margie has been pointing out, it has likely reached cat 3 status now. More rapid intensification will not occur until a single eyewall forms... right now there seems to be (almost) two eyewalls.

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:48 PM
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level!

Derek Ortt, meteorologist from UM, speaking on Hurricane City says this will be the worst hurricane in South Florida since Hurricane Andrew and the worst hurricane in Broward County since Cleo in 1964. Says high end cat. 3 at landfall. Doesn't predict a 4, but wouldn't be surprised. Says 100 mph winds will effect all of the 5 million people in SE Florida.

typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:51 PM
Re: Extrapolated Track

Quote:

typhoon_tip you've been a huge help. Makes me wish that I was good at math so I could have been a met.

Well, let's hope the tornadoes let me get some sleep tonight. My weather radio is wearing me out. Recon seems to indicate the 2300 update will call for a Cat 3. I wonder, based on your discussion with me in these recent posts, if she has enough time to get up to the 130-135 mph range before landfall.

Some folks seem to think that an 84 degree SST is not enough to support those windspeeds. What do you think?




Untrue... 84 is plenty... It depends on numerous factors... Heck, you had Vince in the eastern Atlantic over waters that were 72 I think (check that)...Anyway, point being, peculiararities about her internal structure and also how she's interacting with her environment are more inducive then any rigidity surrounding generalized SST rules.

Namely, she has an extraordinarily powerful outlfow channel established that is rocketing mass from the rim of her upper CDO to Greenland at about ludicrous speed... Sarcasm aside, it really is a potent artifice of circumstantial design...

a) She travels inside the belly of an air mass that is moving along with her, together, she and this air mass are not suffering the ill-affects of shearing erosions and dry air entrainments, because of storm relative shear, which I explained in an earlier post and am getting leary of re-writing...
b) There is a very strong U/A windfield moving into the SE U.S.; the enterance region of a strong negative anomaly (deep trough) carving out between 75 and 80W.. This wind max is moving SW-NE and has latched onto Wilma's outflow, yanking it right along and enhancing the hell out of it... That is why you see the outflow channel so strongly on her NNE polarward side..

a) + b) = c) ...Cataclysm, Catastrophy, you name it... She will have the ability to maximize for these rare combinations of well-timed parametrics. ...Not etched in stone of course, but judging by sat/rad...I think cat 3 is easy... 125 at landfall...no problem... (Early est and I retain the right to eat crow in peace! )


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:52 PM
Re: 00Z Soundings

Quote:

Key West Sounding
Helicity (spin) of 524m/s/s.

Tampa-Helicity of 256ms/s.

Miami-Helicity of 236m/s/s

Tip or Thunderbird12. Care to elaborate on the Helicity and the F scale if you have time.

BTW-Jeff Morrow is in Miami. He just said "I don't like the looks of that satellite right now!"~danielw




That sort of helicity coupled with the instability in place is supportive of a few strong (F2 or higher) tornadoes. The helicity is not necessarily higher than you would expect with an approaching hurricane, but the amount of instability is somewhat higher. This is due to some good heating today over south Florida and a lack of a major precipitation shield ahead of the system.

The timing of the landfall may mitigate the overall tornado threat somewhat, though what tornadoes that do form will be more dangerous because it is dark and they will be fast moving and hard to track. If the storm was approaching closer to peak heating, an even more widespread tornado event might have been possible.


DebbiePSL
(Weather Guru)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:52 PM
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level!

Quote:

Derek Ortt, meteorologist from UM, speaking on Hurricane City says this will be the worst hurricane in South Florida since Hurricane Andrew and the worst hurricane in Broward County since Cleo in 1964. Says high end cat. 3 at landfall. Doesn't predict a 4, but wouldn't be surprised. Says 100 mph winds will effect all of the 5 million people in SE Florida.



If I'm not mistaken Derek has his landfall futher south than most have predicted. I think it is his belief that from WPB to Miami will take the brunt of this storm. I will go back and read his post from this afternoon to be sure.


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:55 PM
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level!

HURRICANE WILMA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
9 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

AT 9 PM EDT...0100Z... THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE
WILMA WAS ESTIMATED BY THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN KEY WEST FLORIDA
NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES...
255 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 210 MILES...
340 KM... SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA.

RECENT DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
AND FROM THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN KEY WEST FLORIDA INDICATE WILMA
IS VERY NEAR CATEGORY THREE...OR MAJOR... HURRICANE STRENGTH.

FORECASTER STEWART


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:57 PM
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level!

The previous update was old... here is the new one:

HURRICANE WILMA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

AT 10 PM EDT...0200Z... THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE
WILMA WAS ESTIMATED BY THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN KEY WEST FLORIDA
NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...
210 KM... WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 180 MILES... 290 KM...
SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA.

RECENT DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
AND FROM THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN KEY WEST FLORIDA INDICATE WILMA
IS VERY NEAR CATEGORY THREE...OR MAJOR... HURRICANE STRENGTH. IF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EYEWALL CONTINUE TO PERSIST AND REMAIN WELL
ORGANIZED... THEN WILMA WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE 11 PM ADVISORY.

SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE LOWER
FLORIDA KEYS... AND ARE NOW WITHIN 40 MILES OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA COAST.

FORECASTER STEWART


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:58 PM
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level!

WOW..... UH OH... NASA "MIGHT" BE IN TROUBLE!!

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
954 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
FLC009-240230-
/O.CON.KMLB.TO.W.0024.000000T0000Z-051024T0230Z/
BREVARD FL-
954 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM EDT FOR NORTHERN
BREVARD COUNTY...
AT 953 PM EDT...MELBOURNE DOPPLER RADAR... AS WELL AS HIGH RESOLUTION
TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED A TORNADO OVER NORTHERN MERRITT
ISLAND NEAR COURTENAY...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH TOWARD THE KENNEDY
SPACE CENTER COMPLEX.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING
SITUATION. A TORNADO WAS REPORTED ON THE GROUND BETWEEN COCOA AND
MERRITT ISLAND AND DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED!!! I DIDN'T ADD THE !!! MARKS
THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
KENNEDY SPACE CENTER BY 1010 PM EDT
MERRITT ISLAND WILDLIFE REFUGE BY 1030 PM EDT
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM EDT MONDAY MORNING
FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
LAT...LON 2837 8084 2837 8067 2840 8067 2859 8060


JG
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:59 PM
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level!

Quote:

HURRICANE WILMA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
9 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

AT 9 PM EDT...0100Z... THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE
WILMA WAS ESTIMATED BY THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN KEY WEST FLORIDA
NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES...
255 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 210 MILES...
340 KM... SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA.

RECENT DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
AND FROM THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN KEY WEST FLORIDA INDICATE WILMA
IS VERY NEAR CATEGORY THREE...OR MAJOR... HURRICANE STRENGTH.

FORECASTER STEWART




Based on the latest vortex message, she's still north of the "line" or projected path. I agree with Tip; this looks more like a Bonita event.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex1.gif


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sun Oct 23 2005 09:59 PM
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level!

That must have been posted an hour ago then.

Glad Stewart is on tonight. Can't wait to read the 10pm if he's going to be writing it up.


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:02 PM
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level!

I'm getting quite a few PMs about what to expect in ___ area.
I don't mind the PMs but there are over 910 people on site right now.

If you were in Florida last year and went through any of the Hurricanes that pummeled the state.
Think and plan on the idea that it will get Bad.
Set your sights and thinking one step above that level.

Then hope and pray that it doesn't get there. If it does...you are prepared right now.

If the weather will permit it where you live. Make a quick check around the house for anything that will blow....anything.
Then get your 'safe room' in order so you can go there at a moments notice.
That means finding a mattress to shield/ cover yourself with.

Okay Jim Cantore just said it!..."You Need To Seek Shelter Before Midnight Tonight."
I didn't hear him say an exact location. If you are in or on the Florida Peninsula.It wouldn't be a bad idea.

Oh and go ahead and prepare the kids. Tell them it's going to get really, really Bad. In whatever manner you wish. So they can be somewhat prepared for it.


typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:06 PM
Re: 00Z Soundings

Quote:

Key West Sounding
Helicity (spin) of 524m/s/s.

Tampa-Helicity of 256ms/s.

Miami-Helicity of 236m/s/s

Tip or Thunderbird12. Care to elaborate on the Helicity and the F scale if you have time.

BTW-Jeff Morrow is in Miami. He just said "I don't like the looks of that satellite right now!"~danielw




Hi Danny..
The kind of Storm Relative Helicity in question is a measure consisting of two parameters:
1) Stream line shear with height.
2) Directional shear with height.

1)...is the increase in wind velocity ascending through the layer in question.
2)...is the change in wind direction asceding in altitude.
The calculations are performed at 1km and 3km layers above ground level.

The units suggest this in being m/ss. The larger the SRH, the greater the chance for tornado development.
SRH Value Tornado Potential
150-299 weak
300-449 moderate
>450 strong

Simpler "Helicity" is just a measure of rotation in a storm's updraft... You can bet that a huge SRH value will be codependent.


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:06 PM
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level!

If High-Res Terminal Doppler is indicating a tornado, then there is debris in the air. That storm looks nasty right now, like something you would see in the Plains during tornado season.

leetdan
(Weather Guru)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:07 PM
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level!

WOW. Looking at the Wunderground loop with storm signatures ("show storms") - you can clearly see the Tornado Vortex Signature near the cape, but thankfully it looks like it's slightly west of the launch pads and VAB. WAY too close for comfort though - this is going to be a long night.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:08 PM
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level!

YEAH.... i don't have my GRLevel up... bet would be some crazy images... including level II data from MLB right now... (storm was close to nexrad)...

Big Red Machine
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:09 PM
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level!

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1004 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 1030 PM EDT

* AT 1004 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO OVER NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT...
NORTHERN GIBSONIA
RURAL NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM! MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...AWAY FROM WINDOWS. COVER YOUR HEAD AND
BODY WITH PILLOWS OR BLANKETS.

TORNADOES ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO
A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING.
ABANDON MOBILE HOMES. LEAVE VEHICLES AND GET INTO A DITCH OR LOW
SPOT.



That's right over my house.


Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:09 PM
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level!

WFUS52 KTBW 240205
TORTBW
FLC105-240230-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TO.W.0026.051024T0204Z-051024T0230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1004 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 1030 PM EDT

* AT 1004 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO OVER NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT...
NORTHERN GIBSONIA
RURAL NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM! MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...AWAY FROM WINDOWS. COVER YOUR HEAD AND
BODY WITH PILLOWS OR BLANKETS.

TORNADOES ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO
A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING.
ABANDON MOBILE HOMES. LEAVE VEHICLES AND GET INTO A DITCH OR LOW
SPOT.


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:11 PM
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level!

live WESH doppler

http://mfile.akamai.com/12890/live/reflector:38190.asx

(not zoomed in) anyone have GRlevel3 running?

just in:

Tornado Warning: key west

AT 1006 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
VIOLENT WATERSPOUT 13 MILES SOUTH OF KEY WEST...MOVING NORTH AT 60
MPH.


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:14 PM
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level!

uh... trying to find a live cam at space center

so far found this

http://www.wesh.com/wxcam/1472278/detail.html


RockledgeRick
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:14 PM
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level!

That's the same storm cell that produced a tornado over Cocoa, FL around 9:45 PM. Channel 13 now on TV reporting confirmed tornado touchdown near Cocoa Village took the roof off of the El Charro Mexican Restaurant. No injuries.

CaneTrackerInSoFl
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:22 PM
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html


Is it just me, or is she heading a little east for the near term?


RedingtonBeachGuy
(Moderator)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:23 PM
Wave Heights appraoching the West Coast

Some significant wave heights are quickly approaching the West Coast of Florida.

http://www.oceanweather.com/data/Gulf-of-Mexico/index.html


chase 22
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:30 PM
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level!

Quote:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html


Is it just me, or is she heading a little east for the near term?




If anything it is more NNE. It is probably just a wobble. Remember don't concentrate on just 1 frame concentrate on the big picture.


Convergence
(Weather Watcher)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:30 PM
Re: Wave Heights appraoching the West Coast

There are going to be some very nasty waves coming ashore with Wilma... not only is she going to be moving at least at the optimum cyclonic storm wave producing speed of around 20 knots at landfall, but she's accelerating, which means that the waves are going to be trapped under the storm and built up for a LONG time... which is called fetch-trapping. The beaches aren't going to look very nice after this one. I wouldn't be surprised to see 15m waves.

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:30 PM
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level!

Y'know I've been mainly looking at wv and IR loops tonight, but I just took a quick look at the visual. It doesn't show the lack of solid organization like the others, just that things are a little 'fuzzy' but I'll say this...the overall cloud structure is, perhaps only coincidentally, very similar to the strong "buzzsaw" signature you can get with Cat 4. All this hurricane has to do is just get that core organized, which is occuring painfully slowly, and I bet she'll spin up quick. Of course that could fail to happen before she runs out of ocean real estate.

Geoff
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:31 PM
Naples Information

We just came back from dinner with friends from Naples who had to evacuate and are staying up here in Tampa. After the storm goes through, does anyone have any suggestions on the best place for them to get comprehensive post storm information, damage information, road information, etc. Is Collier EOC the best place to start?

As an aside, they mentioned there is one of those temporary pumpkin patches near their house where someone is selling pumpkins; they said that whoever was running it just abandoned it and left all those potential 20+ pound projectiles sitting out in the open...just crazy. When I was a kid part of our pre-storm ritual was to cut the coconuts out of the tree...but we never had to worry about pumpkins!


3rdGenFlaNative
(Registered User)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:31 PM
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level!

OMG you guys! I am really starting to freak out here in Lakeland! I was here last year for all three hurricanes and was never this scared! What is really alarming is that the very people who normally seem (IMHO as a previously quiet lurker) like the voices of reason seem EXTREMELY concerned with what appears to be developing.

I have taken every recommended precaution, and have the whole family in the safest room with mattresses, but am still hesitant about freaking the kids out - they just got settled for the night, and I'd love for them to be able to sleep through the worst of things (I know I sure won't!). But I am seriously considering telling them what's going on, after what Danielw said. Polk county seems to be a hot spot right now, and I have a feeling this may be unlike any storm - of any kind - that I've ever experienced.

Thanks for all the crucial support you guys are providing! I don't have cable, and the info I am receiving here is invaluable. Best of luck to everyone and please stay safe!


Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:32 PM
Re: Wave Heights appraoching the West Coast

THE NWS HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11:14AM EDT
Issue Time: 10:28PM EDT, Sunday Oct 23, 2005
Valid Until: 11:14AM EDT, Monday Oct 24, 2005
Back to summary

Flood Warning National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL 1026 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2005

A River Flood Warning Has Been Issued For... The Little Manatee River At Wimauma, The Manatee River At Myakka Head, And The Peace River At Arcadia.

Hurricane Wilma Is Forecast To Gradually Accelerate While Moving Northeast Toward Southwest Florida Overnight. Wilma Will Race Across The Florida Peninsula Early On Monday. Heavy Rains Fell Over Portions Of West Central And Central Florida Sunday Night, And Additional Heavy Rains Of 2 To 4 Inches Will Be Possible Again On Monday. Residents With Intrest Along Rivers In West Central And Southwest Florida, Should Closely Monitor For Additional Updates And Forecasts.

For The Little Manatee River At Wimauma, The Latest Stage Is 2.9 Feet At 10 PM Sunday. Minor Flooding Is Forecast, With A Maximum Stage Of 12.5 Feet Around 8 AM Tuesday, Which Is 1.5 Feet Above Flood Stage. The Stage Will Rise Above The Flood Stage Of 11 Feet Around 01 AM Tuesday. The Stage Will Fall Below Flood Stage Around 7 AM Wednesday. This Compares To A Previous Crest Of 12.5 Feet On Aug 29 1981. At 13 Feet, The Canoe Rental Area Floods. At 11 Feet, The River Overflows Its Banks.

For The Manatee River At Myakka Head, The Latest Stage Is 3.2 Feet At 10 PM Sunday. Minor Flooding Is Forecast, With A Maximum Stage Of 13.4 Feet Around 8 PM Monday, Which Is 2.4 Feet Above Flood Stage. The Stage Will Rise Above The Flood Stage Of 11 Feet Around 12 PM Monday. The Stage Will Fall Below Flood Stage Around 9 AM Tuesday. This Compares To A Previous Crest Of 13.4 Feet On Aug 24 1979. At 11 Feet, Private Road And Bridge 1 Mile Downstream Flood. Agricultural, Rural Kibler Area Begins To Flood.

For The Peace River At Arcadia, The Latest Stage Is 3.8 Feet At 9 PM Sunday. Minor Flooding Is Forecast, With A Maximum Stage Of 11.3 Feet Around 2 PM Thursday, Which Is 0.3 Feet Above Flood Stage. The Stage Will Rise Above The Flood Stage Of 11 Feet Around 5 PM Wednesday. This Compares To A Previous Crest Of 11.3 Feet On Mar 29 1970. At 12 Feet, The Girl Scout Camp Floods. At 11 Feet, Access Roads To River Acres Become Flooded. At 10 Feet, 3 To 4 Homes In The River Acres Subdivision Flood And The Lowest Portion Of The Girl Scout Camp Floods.

Do Not Drive Cars Through Flooded Areas...


bposner
(Registered User)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:33 PM
Re: Naples Information

off topic
Not a weather person, but have been reading all your posts for the last week, I'm in Sunrise Florida, just wanted to thank you all for great info.



Edit: Glad to see you post one! Thanks for the kudos.. I'm sure all the Mets and Met wannabe's thank you.



CaneTrackerInSoFl
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:33 PM
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level!

Quote:

Quote:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html


Is it just me, or is she heading a little east for the near term?




If anything it is more NNE. It is probably just a wobble. Remember don't concentrate on just 1 frame concentrate on the big picture.



Yeah, but also, NBC 2 on the west coast of Florida is also confirming a possible ENE track.


RedingtonBeachGuy
(Moderator)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:34 PM
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level!

Considering the storm is well south of you, I think you'll be ok.

It is good you haven't taken anything for granted but I'm not so sure it will be as bad in Polk County as you are envisioning right now.

Stay safe!


BTfromAZ
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:35 PM
Re: Wave Heights appraoching the West Coast

Sorry to sound ignorant, but is that red blob (implying 40 ft heights) only peak-to-trough waves or is that the storm surge (which is obviously not 40 ft but could be 10 to 15 ft with 25-30 ft waves on top)?

Edit - Not quite sure as I am not a Met. However, the data is there for us to assume something is seeing 40' wave heights.


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:36 PM
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level!

It is becoming more apparant that this storm is going to much stronger upon landfall than what anyone had predicted...CNN's freaking out..dopes.

The weird thing is this: when they show the faster loops, it looks like it is going to hit Naples in 2 hours. However, when you look at the Key West radar, it almost looks like it's going more north than east. Is that because they play slower loops out of the Key West area than they do the other loops? It's kind of deceiving.

The, uh, mets on CNN seem a little....dazed.


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:41 PM
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level!

Quote:

OMG you guys! I am really starting to freak out here in Lakeland! I was here last year for all three hurricanes and was never this scared! What is really alarming is that the very people who normally seem (IMHO as a previously quiet lurker) like the voices of reason seem EXTREMELY concerned with what appears to be developing.

I have taken every recommended precaution, and have the whole family in the safest room with mattresses, but am still hesitant about freaking the kids out - they just got settled for the night, and I'd love for them to be able to sleep through the worst of things (I know I sure won't!). But I am seriously considering telling them what's going on, after what Danielw said. Polk county seems to be a hot spot right now, and I have a feeling this may be unlike any storm - of any kind - that I've ever experienced.

Thanks for all the crucial support you guys are providing! I don't have cable, and the info I am receiving here is invaluable. Best of luck to everyone and please stay safe!




Conditions should not be too bad with the hurricane itself (probably not anything worse than tropical storm conditions) where you are... the main threat is probably tonight with isolated tornadoes around in the outer bands. Just make sure to stay abreast of any tornado warnings on your local media. It also wouldn't hurt to have a battery-operated radio in case power goes out. Keep in mind that tornadoes are inherently rare phenomena and generally affect only a small area, so try not to worry too much.


Geoff
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:41 PM
Naples Information

We just came back from dinner with friends from Naples who had to evacuate and are staying up here in Tampa. After the storm goes through, does anyone have any suggestions on the best place for them to get comprehensive post storm information, damage information, road information, etc. Is Collier EOC the best place, or is there a better source? [Feel free to PM me]

As an aside, they mentioned there is one of those temporary pumpkin patches near their house where someone is selling pumpkins; they said that whoever was running it just abandoned it and left all those potential 20+ pound projectiles sitting out in the open...just crazy. When I was a kid part of our pre-storm ritual was to cut the coconuts out of the tree...but we never had to worry about pumpkins!


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:42 PM
Re: Wave Heights appraoching the West Coast

HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
...WILMA STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...24.4 N... 83.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 958 MB.


RedingtonBeachGuy
(Moderator)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:43 PM
11 PM is out - Wilma is a Cat 3

HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

...WILMA STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...
...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS LASHING THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
AND WESTERN CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD... AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD... INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO ST. AUGUSTINE. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH
OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO ST. AUGUSTINE.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION... WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED... IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER
OF WILMA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER... WILMA IS
A LARGE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL REACH THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WELL BEFORE THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL. THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE EYEWALL... ACCOMPANIED BY THE STRONGEST WINDS...
WILL REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA ABOUT 2 HOURS BEFORE
THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS
...AND WILMA WILL LIKELY MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE.
SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS WILMA CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA... BUT THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO STILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BY THE TIME THE CENTER REACHES
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...370 KM. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL... WESTERN CUBA... AND THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS. THESE WINDS SHOULD REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA COAST BY MIDNIGHT... WITH HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS REACHING
THE LOWER KEYS AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST BEFORE SUNRISE


WeatherNut
(Weather Master)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:44 PM
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level!

Yeah...these guys at CNN...nothing like selling a story (wonder what they are charging for advertising while this is going on). Its gonna be a long night for you guys in SW FL..
These dopes at CNN are reporting storm surge already in Key West...cant possibly be there yet

Edit - hmm, you better look at this data - looks to me like there is a significant surge occuring:

http://www.oceanweather.com/data/Gulf-of-Mexico/index.html


abyrd
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:45 PM
11 pm out

115 knts moving due NE at 18 mph

Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:45 PM
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level!

Seems pretty close to track right now. I do not see a ENE movement. More like a NE movement.. If you look at the storm on satellite, its following the NHC track points pretty well. Maybe a hint north of the track, depending upon your prospective.

Local weathermen and TV like to hype movement. Great for ratings.. Best bet is to go by Recon positions and NHC advisories. They provide the official positions. They are providing these every hour. So there should be no confusion on direction.


Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:45 PM
Re: Naples Information

Couple hours old, but just posted at NRL - microwave pass from SSMI:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...CT=1degreeticks

You can see the convection circling the core almost completely now.


chase 22
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:46 PM
Re: Naples Information

Quote:

We just came back from dinner with friends from Naples who had to evacuate and are staying up here in Tampa. After the storm goes through, does anyone have any suggestions on the best place for them to get comprehensive post storm information, damage information, road information, etc. Is Collier EOC the best place, or is there a better source? [Feel free to PM me]

As an aside, they mentioned there is one of those temporary pumpkin patches near their house where someone is selling pumpkins; they said that whoever was running it just abandoned it and left all those potential 20+ pound projectiles sitting out in the open...just crazy. When I was a kid part of our pre-storm ritual was to cut the coconuts out of the tree...but we never had to worry about pumpkins!




Probably the Collier EOC or FEMA. They may have to be patient as they will be swamped immediately following the storm.


BTfromAZ
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:47 PM
Re: Wave Heights appraoching the West Coast

I asked about the storm surge vs. wave height because the highest "waves" seem to be perilously close to the Keys which are, as we all know, only a few feet above sea level. I had envisioned the max surge being a bit farther north impacting primarily the northern reaches of FL Bay, the Everglades and, perhaps, Naples. Withe the exception of Naples, that would be a "good scenario" as those areas are natural marsh capable of absorbing the water and unpopulated. But if it hits the Keys, that would, arguably, be worst case.

Jonathan Franklin
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:47 PM
Wilma's a Cat 3

It is official. The 11 pm discussion is out.

Cat 3

115 MPH

958 mb

18 mph NE


***

Wave height off of Key West is 20-30 ft

Jonathan


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:48 PM
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level!

First of all, please sit down and take a VERY DEEP BREATH. Thank you...now...listen.
First of all, we will have conditions close to what we have when a severe t-storm comes through Polk County. What do you tell your children then? The last thing they need to see is their mom freaking out. That will scare them more than any storm cell coming through.
If you have taken every precaution you possibly can, I would NOT wake up your children to tell them ANYTHING unless you have to...and if you do have to wake them up due to a tornado warning or anything else, do it as calmly as you can because they need to be reassured by YOU...
I have been through some scary storms ---Georges comes to mind with his tornados --- but a certain calm will come over you when it comes to dealing with your children.
Just be alert...my kids are sleeping, they know that the night may be rough, but they also know where I will be all night long.
So...now take a BIG DEEP BREATH again, and try to relax...hey, the wind isn't even blowing here yet.


RedingtonBeachGuy
(Moderator)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:49 PM
Re: Naples Information

Another good radar image of the eye:

http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml


RedingtonBeachGuy
(Moderator)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:50 PM
Updated current wind field data

http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_field.asp

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:51 PM
Re: Wilma's a Cat 3

AP-FL--Wilma-Forecast URGENT, take two
Wilma regains Category 3 strength
Tropical storm-force winds are lashing the lower Florida Keys. Minor flooding is reported in Key West.


Addicted2Cane
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:51 PM
Re: 11 PM is out - Wilma is a Cat 3

Been lurking around here for a few days sucking up all the knowledge that has been spinning around here and just wanted to shout out a big thank you. Looks like its going to be downhill from here for many on the board...good luck to all and be safe. Thanks for all of the great insight you have shared.

typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:52 PM
Re: Naples Information

Any word out of Key West? Rad just showed them get whacked by a supercell and this was confirmed during the last hour by the fact that a violent water spout was 13miles S of them moving north.. That cell has gone by them now..

h2ocean
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:53 PM
Re: Wilma's a Cat 3

I am located in Brevard Co, FL - on Merritt Island - it is very calm right now (should have TS winds tomorrow). I have an anemometer on my roof and here is a link to the data - updated every few seconds.

http://home.cfl.rr.com/h2ocean/weather/livewx.html


Jonathan Franklin
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:53 PM
Updated maps

Way to go Skeet!

Here's a great updated map:
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=z&m=24

Unbelievable. We're in Palmetto Bay (South of Miami). We're getting socked tomorrow.

Apparrently, Wilma's outrunning the trough. So no shear.

Jonathan



What counts is not necessarily the size of the dog in the fight - it's the size of the fight in the dog.
Dwight D. Eisenhower , speech to the Republican National Committee, January 31, 1958


collegemom
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:53 PM
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level!

You be fine. Don't alarm the kids but be alert. Read to them but keep your ears open. Good luck and God Bless

Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:54 PM
Re: 11 PM is out - Wilma is a Cat 3

WFUS52 KMLB 240252
TORMLB
FLC069-240345-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0025.051024T0249Z-051024T0345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1049 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
LAKE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF MASCOTTE AND GROVELAND...

* UNTIL 1145 PM EDT

* AT 1048 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES SOUTH
OF MASCOTTE AND GROVELAND. THE STORM WAS MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.
NEARLY STATIONARY.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
MASCOTTE AND GROVELAND BY 1110 PM EDT

TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE OFTEN WRAPPED IN
HEAVY RAIN AND ARE HARD TO SEE OR HEAR UNTIL THEY ARE VERY CLOSE. DO
NOT GET CAUGHT OFFGUARD!

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM...SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR
CLOSET AND KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR
BODY.

STORMS WITHIN DOMINANT RAINBANDS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES VERY QUICKLY!
OFTEN...IN SITUATIONS SUCH AS THIS...MORE THAN ONE TORNADO IS
PRODUCED. BE PREPARED FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF MULTIPLE TORNADOES MOVING
THROUGH THE RAINBAND!

TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE. WATCH FOR THE POPPING OF
ELECTRIC LINES AND TRANSFORMERS OR LISTEN FOR THE SOUND OF LOUD
RUMBLING AS THAT OF AN APPROACHING FREIGHT TRAIN.

LAT...LON 2827 8190 2830 8170 2890 8175 2886 8205


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:54 PM
Re: Naples Information

The Weather Channel is also reporting some surge on Key West.

Genesis
(Weather Guru)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:57 PM
Re: Wave Heights appraoching the West Coast

Quote:

Sorry to sound ignorant, but is that red blob (implying 40 ft heights) only peak-to-trough waves or is that the storm surge (which is obviously not 40 ft but could be 10 to 15 ft with 25-30 ft waves on top)?

Edit - Not quite sure as I am not a Met. However, the data is there for us to assume something is seeing 40' wave heights.




That posted graphic link is a model, and does not include surge.

There are no working stations in the immediate area - there are two in the lower Keys, but it appears they were both damaged in September and are out of service.

Wave heights are usually given as peak-to-trough. Wave heights do not include surge, which is non-existant in deep water; it is basically "rammed water", added to by the lessened pressure (think an upwelling as pressure falls in a stick - same principle a water barometer works on.)

The only good news, if you can call it that, is that waves that are more than roughly half the height of the water under them is deep will crest and break. The reasons for this are complicated and have to do with the fact that there is "drag" on the bottom of the ocean that the wave energy runs into, which tends to "hold" the bottom of the water, causing it effectively "fall over" (develop a coamer and break)

Deep fall-offs allow wave heights to be maintained all the way up to the shore or very close to it, while shallower shelves tend to limit wave height as the shore is approached. However, whatever does reach the sthore comes in on top of the surge.

So if you have 20' waves on the beach, and a 10' surge, then the peak of the waves will be at 30' above MSL.

I would not be surprised to see 15-20' breakers on top of whatever surge that comes with it, at the eyewall and south of where it comes ashore.


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 10:58 PM
Re: Naples Information

The satellite presentation seems to have leveled off for now. I think the eye is simply too big and not well-organized enough for a rapid intensification to occur, though slow intensification is likely still possible for another few hours.

RedingtonBeachGuy
(Moderator)
Sun Oct 23 2005 11:02 PM
Live from Key West

Live TV from the Keys

http://mfile.akamai.com/12908/live/reflector:35252.asx


Turba
(Registered User)
Sun Oct 23 2005 11:04 PM
Re: Naples Information

Newbie here, just wanted to say thanks to everyone for the great info. I've been reading all day. I don't live in FL but my In-Laws do, on Marco Island. They did leave the island, but only went to Naples to a hotel 3 miles from the beach. We tried to talk them into going much, much further north, but they wouldn't. Anyway, of course we are worried about them, but they seem to think that Naples will be OK. I'm not so sure, but all I can do now is wait and hope they come through OK.

3rdGenFlaNative
(Registered User)
Sun Oct 23 2005 11:04 PM
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level!

OK Colleen - am taking deep breaths as requested... alright, that's better. Thanks so much for the support. Kids are asleep (AND HUBBY! - unbelievable!). Instead of subjecting them to constant tornado warnings on local tv, they watched dvd's until they fell asleep. I've been online, and haven't shown to them any of the panic that I was beginning to feel. So I think you're right, just gonna let everyone else sleep.

Sorry to have sounded like such a lunatic. I've lived here all my life, and have always handled hurricanes, tornado warnings & severe t-storms quite well - no, really! But it seemed like in the period of about an hour the weather service announced several strong tornado warnings for my specific area, while at the same time I watched in disbelief as Wilma started to explode! Guess it just got a little overwhelming. Of course I know that landfall will be well south of me. The unusually severe threat of strong, long-lasting tornados was what really freaked me out. But I do feel better now, and will just continue monitoring the situation, as that's all I can do. I'm truly as prepared as I could be, and I've trained my children well. So, thanks again to everyone for your support, and here's hoping for the best for all of us.

Chelle


RedingtonBeachGuy
(Moderator)
Sun Oct 23 2005 11:06 PM
Max Mayfield Just Said..

20' storm surge in the Keys all the way up towards Naples..

Instead of isolated tornadoes in Florida, he now says scattered tornadoes from Northern Central Florida to the Keys - that is a significant change.


JG
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 11:08 PM
Re: Max Mayfield Just Said..

Quote:

20' storm surge in the Keys all the way up towards Naples..

Instead of isolated tornadoes in Florida, he know says scattered tornadoes from Northern Central Florida to the Keys - that is a significant change.




Because of the intrusion of the cold front, I'm not too suprised to hear the tornado statement. I fear that from Tampa to the Keys we'll be dealing with tornado watches and warnings until after lunch tommorrow if not later. Once the second front blows through, our air will finally get more stable.


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 11:09 PM
Re: Max Mayfield Just Said..

Quote:

20' storm surge in the Keys all the way up towards Naples..

Instead of isolated tornadoes in Florida, he now says scattered tornadoes from Northern Central Florida to the Keys - that is a significant change.




I believe he said 8-17' foot surge.

Edit - Thanks.. that's what I though he said too but then the Met summarized and said 20' so I left it as that. In any case, high.


DebbiePSL
(Weather Guru)
Sun Oct 23 2005 11:10 PM
Re: Naples Information

Quote:

The Weather Channel is also reporting some surge on Key West.



Also saw earlier on TWC Steve Lyons said looks like landfall right now will be around everglades city.


BTfromAZ
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 11:11 PM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Was just watching Melbourne radar (because my personal concern is for the Daytona area where my remaining family lives) and saw what appeared to be a severe tornado cross Cape Canaveral. Earlier this evening, I spent some time on the phone with my 80-something mom trying to convince her to close the roll-down storm shutters before she goes to bed. Now I'm glad I did.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sun Oct 23 2005 11:14 PM
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level!

I am glad you are feeling better. While that information about the tornadoes can scare you, the meteorologists on CNN, MSNBC and FNC can freak you out even more because it's ANOTHER BIG HURRICANE STORY!! AGH! I know you said you didn't have cable (consider that a blessing in itself! ) but if you have a radio, tune into WFLA and let Steve Jerve calmly get you through the storm. He has got to be the most calm, down to earth guy I've heard on TV...and he and Jennifer Hill make a great team.
It's amazing how our adrenaline kicks in when needed, isn't it? Now, who's gonna watch the kids tomorrow when we fall asleep on our feet?


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 11:15 PM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

URNT12 KNHC 240310
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/02:46:30Z
B. 24 deg 22 min N
083 deg 50 min W
C. 700 mb 2733 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 215 deg 105 kt
G. 123 deg 036 nm
H. 957 mb
I. 9 C/ 3037 m
J. 15 C/ 3048 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C55
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF305 2424A WILMA OB 20
MAX FL WIND 114 KT NE QUAD 01:04:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 18 C 320 / 15 NM FROM FL CNTR


KikiFla
(Registered User)
Sun Oct 23 2005 11:16 PM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Forcast low for Miami on Tuesday morning...... 59 degrees! At least it will be nice to know that we won't be sweltering for once..... once the electricity goes out!

Turba
(Registered User)
Sun Oct 23 2005 11:18 PM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Can someone tell me if this site will remain up even if there are massive power outages in FL?

Thanks,
Doug

Edit: we'll do our best - but we are at the mercy of the datacenter which is in VA. We should be ok.


shrinkdoc weather watcher
(Registered User)
Sun Oct 23 2005 11:20 PM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Hi, "first time poster", long time admirer of those knowledgeable about weather. I too have family in Daytona area and fear that if I wasn't learning what was happening from you all, they would not have the foggiest idea of what they could be in for tonight/tomorrow! Thank you for the valuable info and good luck to you all down there, from the quiet West Coast.

Beaumont, TX
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Oct 23 2005 11:22 PM
Re: Naples Information

They said on CNN Key West hasn't been hit by a major hurricane since early 1900's. Wilma seems to be aiming
for Key West. Not surprised she is a cat 3 with the way this season has been. Hopefully, she will blow through quickly.
Looks that way. I am praying for everyone that she may affect.


Jonathan Franklin
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Oct 23 2005 11:23 PM
Pressure dropping as of 11:30 pm

They're reporting that the pressure is now 957mb per air force reports at an updated 11:30 report.

Jonathan


Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Sun Oct 23 2005 11:23 PM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Quote:

Can someone tell me if this site will remain up even if there are massive power outages in FL?

Thanks,
Doug




Doing a traceroute on the site, it looks like their host is in Virginia, so it shouldn't have a problem remaining online.

Although there are a few moderators in the state of FL that could find themselves without power or internet access. Sorry to interrupt your post, but it seemed more prudent than doing a redundant answer. -Tom


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 11:26 PM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

LAKE FL-
1112 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM EDT FOR WESTERN
LAKE COUNTY...

AT 1107 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO OVER SOUTH LAKE COUNTY. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
EAST OF STATE ROAD 33 ABOUT 5 MILES SOUTH OF STATE ROAD 50 BETWEEN
CLERMONT AND MASCOTTE. THE STORM WAS MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MINNEOLA BY 1125 PM EDT
ASTATULA...HOWEY IN THE HILLS...LITTLE LAKE HARRIS AND 7 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF YALAHA BY 1145 PM EDT

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM EDT MONDAY MORNING
FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.


chase 22
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 11:28 PM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

They are currently showing footage of the flooding in Key West on Channel 8 here in Tampa. It doesn't look good for them.

MissBecky
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 11:30 PM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Well, I'm off for the night. Time to unplug the computer and head out to the living room. It's going to be a long night...

I wanted to say thanks to everyone on this site for their insight and knowledge. To everyone in Wilma's path, stay safe!

Rebecca


HCW
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Oct 23 2005 11:30 PM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Just added some Grlevel X images. They update every 5 mins.

http://hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php?t=4173


BabyCat
(Weather Guru)
Sun Oct 23 2005 11:30 PM
Key West

Didn't see the usual press coverage of the evacuation of the Keys.
A report on CNN's coverage said that over half of the residents opted to remain.
Initially, the forecast was not for a healthy Cat 3 to hit, if I remember correctly.
Can anyone verify that Key West still has most of its residents??


Sneakbridge
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Oct 23 2005 11:33 PM
Re: Key West

I was listening to the news earlier and they said 90% did not evacuate, as opposed to Marco where 90% of the population did evacuate. Don't ask me where they got their #s.

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Sun Oct 23 2005 11:35 PM
Re: Key West

Derek Ortt said earlier on Hurricane City that only 15% of the people left the Keys. He said unfortunately the death toll could be very high!!!! He said a number that I don't want to repeat. There is no where to go when the water starts rising.

ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Oct 23 2005 11:39 PM
Re: Key West

High gust here so far was 32mph.People are still parting here,although the cat3 upgrade did seem to sober the mood.I will be up most of the night,as I want to see how strong she will get.I can not do more than I have already done.It's hunker down time.Good luck to all.

royener
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Oct 23 2005 11:41 PM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

I was looking at the IR Floater Loop and was wondering if the definate line to the NW was a system acting on Wilma. It is showing a definate cut off, is this squeezing the storm further south?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sun Oct 23 2005 11:44 PM
Re: Key West

I did hear on two different radio stations that only 20% of the residents in the Keys left the island. They showed some footage of people partying at various bars in Key West. They just mentioned about an hour ago that they are "no longer partying here."
Steve Jerve just went through when and what affects we will feel in each county.
Since I live in Polk, here's what he said:

9AM - 2PM :
Squalls/Tornados
Winds 30-50mph === possibility of being sustained winds
Gust to 60 possible.

So, I think maybe those of us in Polk county may be able to get some sleep tonight instead of waiting another 7 hours!


KC
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Oct 23 2005 11:47 PM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Rain is just starting at my house (Naples - inland) so I ran the dogs out one last time - don't know when they'll get their next trip. The dogs and I are ready to move into the closet; husband is sleeping - glad to hear I don't have the only one sleeping tonight! Don't know how much longer we'll have power, so it's probably time to head back to the other side of the house. Thanks for all of the info tonight!

Karen


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sun Oct 23 2005 11:50 PM
Re: Key West

Well, unfortunately, a lot of people decide not to leave when told to do so. I hate to hear that the death toll could be high, but if people didn't learn from Katrina, than I don't think they will ever learn. So now instead of dealing with a Cat 1, there are a lot of people who will be dealing with a low-to-mid Cat 3. I just hope those people who were partying will have enough sobriety left to deal with what is going to be a very dangerous situation.
I have little sympathy for those who are offered ways out but instead decide to stay and "ride it out", especially after the horrible toll that Katrina left in her wake in AL, MS, and LA.
That may sound cold, but it's the truth.


Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Sun Oct 23 2005 11:51 PM
Re: Key West

WFUS52 KMLB 240345
TORMLB
FLC069-240445-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0026.051024T0342Z-051024T0445Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1142 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...TAVARES...HOWEY IN THE HILLS...
GROVELAND...FERNDALE...EUSTIS

* UNTIL 1245 AM EDT

* AT 1141 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER
CLERMONT... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
FERNDALE BY MIDNIGHT EDT
LITTLE LAKE HARRIS AND HOWEY IN THE HILLS BY 1230 AM EDT
6 MILES SOUTH OF TAVARES BY 1245 AM EDT

TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE OFTEN WRAPPED IN
HEAVY RAIN AND ARE HARD TO SEE OR HEAR UNTIL THEY ARE VERY CLOSE. DO
NOT GET CAUGHT OFFGUARD!

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM...SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR
CLOSET AND KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR
BODY.

TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE. WATCH FOR THE POPPING OF
ELECTRIC LINES AND TRANSFORMERS OR LISTEN FOR THE SOUND OF LOUD
RUMBLING AS THAT OF AN APPROACHING FREIGHT TRAIN.

LAT...LON 2854 8191 2847 8176 2848 8166 2886 8166
2886 8177


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Oct 23 2005 11:52 PM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

The local mets here are saying I can expect 6 hours of 75+ winds,a good chance of 100+ winds.Also said Palm and Broward counties will get the worst here on the east coast.

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Sun Oct 23 2005 11:53 PM
Re: Key West

Hey Bob,

I'll be here all night with you. Looks like we are both going to get clobbered. Hurricane City program had 112 mph worst winds for me around 9 a.m. They said worst hurricane for you guys in Broward since 1964. They had the track going over the Palm Beach/Broward line. Pressure really starting to drop now. Down .05" in just the last hour to 29.59". Peak wind only 23 mph and no rain yet.


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Oct 23 2005 11:56 PM
Re: Key West

I really hate to even ask this,But what are the chances she could get to a cat 4?

Sneakbridge
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Oct 23 2005 11:58 PM
Re: Key West

I'm no expert but I think the eye would really have to reduce in size quickly and get nice and tight for there to be any chance for a 4... not thinking that is going to happen... Although, Charley did surprise a lot of people too though..

JMII
(Weather Guru)
Sun Oct 23 2005 11:59 PM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

I don't think there any place in the Keys that is more then 2 feet above sea level! Water came over US1 (the only road in/out) in Key Largo during Katrina's Cat 1 landfall, at Cat 3 coming from the SW will be much, much worst due to the shallowness of Florida Bay and the increase winds - plus you got to factor in Wilma's forward speed... all in all this not going to be pretty in southern FL.

High tide in Key West is 1:35AM (EDT 10/24) - which will be just slightly ahead of when the eye passes close to them. For tides in other places go here: http://66.135.8.10/tideserver/LocationSelect.asp pick FL as the state, pick the date and then scroll down. Tides are listed from north to south for the east (Atlantic) side till you hit Key West. Then tides pickup at Flamingo (Florida Bay) and are listed from south to north up the west (Gulf) side of the state. Marco Island will have high tide around 4:30AM, with landfall estimated to be around 6-8AM the surge will be very high I fear. I do alot of fishing in Florida Bay and the tides are much wind driven given the shallow water.


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 12:00 AM
Re: Key West

Quote:

I really hate to even ask this,But what are the chances she could get to a cat 4?




It can't completely be ruled out, but given that it has such a large eye, it will not be prone to rapid intensity changes. It may get a little stronger from where it is now, though. It is still possible that some weakening may set in before landfall, but time is running out for any sort of major intensity changes, one way or the other.


tpratch
(Moderator)
Mon Oct 24 2005 12:01 AM
Re: Key West

She's experiencing relatively low shear, is in fairly warm waters and already made it up to Cat 3. Should her eye contract, I'd say there's a chance that she could. However, your guess is as good as mine, and the NHC's guess trumps us all If they issue an update cautioning against the possibility, then hold on tightly.

Stay safe everyone and thanks for making mod duty especially easy tonight.


weathernut2
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 12:02 AM
Re: Key West

thanks for the info on polk county. with the current track isnt it possible to make the same sudden shift as charley did ?

Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 24 2005 12:03 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Windley Key is 18 feet above sea level, but this is the highest elevation in the Florida Keys

BabyCat
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 24 2005 12:03 AM
Re: Key West

I hope they are all around to regret their choice.
I certainly don't like the graphics for the wind fields...
OR the surge forecasts...


Sneakbridge
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 12:05 AM
Re: Key West

It may be very stupid, but I think that is the thinking of some people from the Keys... They ride through the storms there. I'm not saying it is intelligent, but it does seem part of the culture for parts of the population.

Ned
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Oct 24 2005 12:06 AM
Re: Key West

Quote:

I did hear on two different radio stations that only 20% of the residents in the Keys left the island. They showed some footage of people partying at various bars in Key West. They just mentioned about an hour ago that they are "no longer partying here."
Steve Jerve just went through when and what affects we will feel in each county.
Since I live in Polk, here's what he said:

9AM - 2PM :
Squalls/Tornados
Winds 30-50mph === possibility of being sustained winds
Gust to 60 possible.

So, I think maybe those of us in Polk county may be able to get some sleep tonight instead of waiting another 7 hours!


Any word on Tampa?

R2RICKSTER
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 12:06 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

With Wilma moving so fast by the time it gets to the east coast will there be any "calm time" in the eye, if it passes over me in Delray Beach ?

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 24 2005 12:07 AM
Re: Key West

Landfall continues right on NHC path..maybe slightly N of there near Bonita Springs.....I see no reason to disagree with a landfall between Ft Myers and Naples....36hrs ago I posted a premature forecast saying it would probably be Sarasota-Charlotte counties maybe a tad N or S of there...but given the drift E off the coast and never going N (like a couple models showed) this brings the center further down the coast by 50miles....Any jog to the N will be a Sanible Island landfall and any jog to the south would bring it over the Everglades.......since this does have a large circulation...Hurricane forces winds will be from Sarasota county south to near the keys. Also the east coast from N or Miami-Vero Beach. TS winds will be from Pasco County-Daytona......... Expect many tornados throughout the state tonight into the morning hours,,,especially in the hurricane warning area and south florida into the afternoon on monday........

This will be my last update on Wilma./

scottsvb


Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 24 2005 12:08 AM
Re: Key West

I just asked Colleen the same for Tampa, cause I missed Jervey, basically the same as your quote for Tampa

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Mon Oct 24 2005 12:09 AM
Re: Key West

No, I don't think it will make a sudden shift like Charley. Charley was moving slower than Wilma is now, and she is only expected to keep chugging along at a good rate of speed. Most mets (TV mets) have agreed that it's pretty much a straight shot with not a lot of deviation in track...of course they have to add that it *might* happen, but I think they are talking only about a fews miles left or right.

weathernut2
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 12:13 AM
Re: Key West

The reason i brought up the shift like with charley is because of the history of this storm when it came close to land before it hit cozumel it slowed down and took and more westerly course than they expected and also slowed down more than they had predicted as well. but right now im just watching for any meso's to pop up as they did earlier in the central part of the state.

GoBigSurf
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 12:14 AM
Re: Key West

My grandmother is "hunkered down" in Tavernier in the Keys. Her response is "I have made it this long, I'll be allright..." Conchys don't like to leave. I on the other hand, have been boarded up in Port St. Lucie since Thursday night. (Bad memories from last year's double whammy)

Other than the 5:00/11:00 NHC full adviseries, are there any other places to get updates on the sustained hurricane force winds in the mean time?


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Mon Oct 24 2005 12:18 AM
Re: Key West

Well, this storm isn't going to make landfall until early morning, so there's no point in me sitting up all night waiting for it and then be exhausted in the morning! So I'm calling it a night...
I hope everyone stays safe and sound wherever you are!
Colleen


collegemom
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 12:18 AM
Re: Key West

She's not gonna slow down but I still expect a tad more northern bend

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 12:22 AM
Re: Key West

There is a slowly increasing band of convection currently approaching the middle Keys and the south peninsula moving north. Nothing too severe at the moment, but some of that activity may try to develop a little further with time. There will be a risk of tornadoes with any intense isolated cell that develops, though at the moment the cells do not appear to be quite intense enough for tornadic activity.

CMS
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 12:23 AM
Re: Key West

The Dry Torugas Buoy at the tip of the keys was showing winds a hair below hurricane strength (74.8mph) at 11pm. No data since then......

http://www.wunderground.com/MAR/buoy/DRYF1.html


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 12:27 AM
Re: Key West

HURRICANE WILMA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
12 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

AT 12 AM EDT...0400Z... DATA FROM THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN KEY WEST
FLORIDA INDICATES THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE WILMA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.6 WEST OR ABOUT
115 MILES...185 KM... WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 160
MILES... 260 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA.

SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS... AND ARE NOW WITHIN 20 MILES OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST. DURING THE PAST HOUR... A SUSTAINED
WIND OF 45 MPH WITH A GUST TO 60 MPH WAS REPORTED AT KEY WEST...
AND A GUST TO 61 MPH WAS MEASURED BY THE C-MAN OBSERVING SITE ON
SOMBRERO KEY.

FORECASTER STEWART


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 12:47 AM
Re: Key West

URNT12 KNHC 240443
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/04:21:40Z
B. 24 deg 41 min N
083 deg 32 min W
C. 700 mb 2720 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 294 deg 112 kt
G. 206 deg 036 nm
H. 954 mb
I. 12 C/ 3050 m
J. 16 C/ 3041 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C60
N. 1234 / 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF305 2424A WILMA OB 26
MAX FL WIND 114 KT NE QUAD 01:04:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C, 203 / 29NM


typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 12:48 AM
Re: Key West

Quote:

No, I don't think it will make a sudden shift like Charley. Charley was moving slower than Wilma is now, and she is only expected to keep chugging along at a good rate of speed. Most mets (TV mets) have agreed that it's pretty much a straight shot with not a lot of deviation in track...of course they have to add that it *might* happen, but I think they are talking only about a fews miles left or right.




Hi Colleen,
You should pay attention to the radar imagery here:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml ....Particularly, take note of the last 2 or 3 frames in that loop... I'd have to say a fairly distinguishable NNE jog is underway... Obviously, vastly too soon to determine the significants of this.. Also, I'm under the impression that the eye wall has indeed contracted... I need to be away for an hour; returned with a fresh point of view, and even in these frames it seems that could be taking place...


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 24 2005 12:52 AM
Re: Key West

Just got back (1 1/2 hours of cat drama...she accidently got out) -- this is looking very bad for the Keys.

Trying to get a handle on what is going on. The eye is not filled in on radar, but appears to be filled in on some sat frames but not others. The most recent 85ghz scan is a partial one from around 9pm, only showing the west side, which looked pretty darn good.

From the oval appearance (mainly the convection is what is oval), it appears she is going to size down to a compact ring around the large eye. I think she is still strengthening and will take on a more donut-type appearance in the next couple hours.

Looks like the southern part of the eyewall is going to graze the Keys, and in short order they're going to get a terrific storm surge when the eyewall comes in with its SE and then E winds...but even worse, if the storm tracks dead reckoning, then they'll get an even larger subsequent surge from the NW, as the west side of the eyewall passes over. They're already showing flooding there, of course, on the order of several feet, but when the surge comes in, the water will rise rapidly, possibly as high as 15 feet, within 60 to 90 minutes. It won't even get much of a chance to recede before the second surge comes in, which may be higher.


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 12:54 AM
Re: Key West

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1238 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
LOWER KEYS IN MONROE COUNTY IN FLORIDA

* UNTIL 130 AM EDT

* AT 1236 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
VIOLENT WATERSPOUT 22 MILES SOUTH OF RAMROD KEY...MOVING NORTH AT
70 MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
BIG PINE KEY...LITTLE TORCH KEY...RAMROD KEY AND MIDDLE TORCH KEY
BY 1255 AM EDT
BIG TORCH KEY BY 100 AM EDT

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES MOVE RAPIDLY...ARE OFTEN
WRAPPED IN HEAVY RAIN...AND ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE OR HEAR UNTIL THEY
ARE VERY CLOSE. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM EDT MONDAY
MORNING FOR FLORIDA.


Big Red Machine
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Oct 24 2005 12:59 AM
Re: Key West

I agree Tip, I feel that the jog is especially apparent on the visible satellite. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

The angle that she comes in at is pretty significant too, as if she comes in with a more northerly angle, she could affect eastern orlando and perhaps the eastern central florida coast more, or if she comes in as currently forecast, Miami could be in for a big time hit.

Where do you currently think Wilma will make landfall? Perhaps Ft. Myers?


WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 24 2005 01:02 AM
Pressure Drop

Hopefully this storm will run out of ocean before it can intensify any more. I think alot of people in the heavily populated regions of Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach are going to be in for a shock tomorrow. They really weren't worrying about a cat. 1 storm from the west. Pressure dropping even faster now. -.07" in the last hour here. Down to 29.53". A very muggy 82 degrees with a dew point of 77. Winds only to 23 mph and no rain.

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 01:10 AM
Re: Key West

The link below is very handy... you can view a still image or radar loop, display current warnings, and the distance calculator at the bottom of the page is useful for estimating the diameter of the eye and the distance to land:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/byx.shtml


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 24 2005 01:11 AM
Re: Pressure Drop

You know, I saw Max M was on CNN so I turned the sound on...he talked for awhile and mentioned how the dry torgtugas recently saw 80-90mph winds. So he finishes and then the idiot woman reporter on CNN comments, wow, the storm is moving 80 to 90 miles per hour.

Yeah I thought...it is about done, because it's running out of ocean, but then I took another look and thought that if it was going to consolidate its size, and slough off some from the top and bottom, it could try to bring that convection around, and tighten up. Admittedly it hasn't done much of that tonight. Wilma's intensity has been increasing but at a very slow rate, but right now she doesn't look like she's ready to stop.

Just saw the recon, and the pressure has continued to drop (jeez T12 do you realize that I was responding to like your sixth post back? You're setting some kind of record for number of posts per day!). It could get down to 950 before the main circulation started over land. I think the convection is going to compact, watch and see the large knob of circulation to the north fly off, and Wilma be a little stronger in an hour.

Note -- that eye is so large that it is a possibility that NHC will have the eye pass over them...practically every part of south FL will.


Big Tk
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Oct 24 2005 01:17 AM
Re: Key West

I don't see it turning at all, if anything it's moving ENE. If it keeps this track I believe she'll make landfall a tad south of the projected path

typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 01:17 AM
Re: Key West

Quote:

I agree Tip, I feel that the jog is especially apparent on the visible satellite. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

The angle that she comes in at is pretty significant too, as if she comes in with a more northerly angle, she could affect eastern orlando and perhaps the eastern central florida coast more, or if she comes in as currently forecast, Miami could be in for a big time hit.

Where do you currently think Wilma will make landfall? Perhaps Ft. Myers?




Hi.. Does it really matter? Such a big circulation with an eye that's a light year across...basically, where ever she make landfall she'll have a radius of distructive capacity that will engulf most of the realistate within site of the radar beam, with hurricane force gusts if not sustainers....To mention, there could be tornado swarms nested in there and virtually invisible... It's likely to be horrific... It could very well be worse then Charley because wilma's influence will spread out over a larger area.

But...if I had to take a guess I'd say: Anywhere from Tampa all the way down the coast is under the gun; if not for the largeness of the circulation field, but because ....who's to say it can't start curving more nne? It's possible with the wv imagery showing such a powerful u/a impulse approaching from the N, that could begin in earnest.


Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Mon Oct 24 2005 01:18 AM
Mezovorticies?

because I don't know what else to call it, the 'star like' formation inthe eye along the eyewall... is anyone seeing a possible formation like that in the latest visible sat image?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg

And i know it's dark, so it's actually IR channel 2 I believe. anyway, I'm curious if that's actually happening or not, (I believe those vortices can create increased damage in the areas because of the increased wind velocity.

(they've shown tornados have the same thing occur inside them, FYI)

just wondering if people see it
-Mark


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Oct 24 2005 01:21 AM
Re: Pressure Drop

I just ran the last Two Fixes out. I'm getting a heading change there.
And running the last two fixes out to the west coast , Comes ashore between Naples and Ft Myers.

Now this would be the hypothetical center.
And last Vortex is calling a 60nm Eye.

I need to recheck this.


typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 01:23 AM
Re: Key West

Quote:

I don't see it turning at all, if anything it's moving ENE. If it keeps this track I believe she'll make landfall a tad south of the projected path




honestly...it is too soon to tell... nhc wouldn't register a course correction for 1 hour's worth of frames anyway... when i first brought that up it was more to offer an alternative point of view.


WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 24 2005 01:25 AM
Re: Key West

Agree the damage could be worse than Charley, because it will also effect the largest population area in the state of 5-6 million people, let alone a much larger area. Plus all the possible tornadoes on top of it.

typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 01:27 AM
Re: Pressure Drop

Quote:

I just ran the last Two Fixes out. I'm getting a heading change there.
And running the last two fixes out to the west coast , Comes ashore between Naples and Ft Myers.

Now this would be the hypothetical center.
And last Vortex is calling a 60nm Eye.

I need to recheck this.




Hi DanialW... I'm with on this... I'm getting some flack on this forum for even suggesting it...but the last few frames on: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml ....are suggesting a subtle differential N component to this.


WeatherNut
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 24 2005 01:29 AM
Re: Key West

Colleen...how could you sleep...I'm in Atlanta and can barely sleep watching it all happen (of course I work nights...so its a little more natural for me)...
Regardless, my prayers are with all you guys down the in S. Florida. The reports you give are invaluable and the info you give to the newbies is great. There are a lot of scared people that get at leqast some comfort and direction so they dont feel so helpless


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Oct 24 2005 01:31 AM
Change

I'm Using the Recon Fixes only...Not NHC fixes.

NHC averages the heading over 3-6 hours. Charley taught me to use RECON Fixes.

I am seeing a change...still working on the heading


WeatherNut
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 24 2005 01:31 AM
Re: Pressure Drop

could that not just be a wobble? Of course a wobble at this point could be crucial to landfall

Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Oct 24 2005 01:32 AM
Re: Key West

It appears to be a tad north of the forecast points, at least on Satellite. I do not usually look at the radar because slight changes are usually not apparent as they are with Satellite. Also I can easily see the forcast points and compare this against its location. Since at this speed you can essentially extrapolate the location of the hurricane, I took a look at the latest model output with the extrapolation and it appears it is also showing a little more northerly landfall than NHC has. Again this is an extrapolation, but when storm moves as quickly as this, there usually are not many wobbles. However, the slightest move north or east will be significant for some areas that are on the cusp of hurricane force/tropical force winds.

Not sure I am making sense as its been a long day..


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 01:32 AM
Re: Mezovorticies?

I'm also seeing the eye taking on a somewhat irregular shape at times. Occasionally, you will see little appendages hanging off off the eyewall that can be associated with strong mesovortices. In this case, though, the shape may just be a side effect of the remnants of the old inner eyewall which STILL seem to be somewhat evident on satellite images.

Wilma is still deepening, but seems to be struggling to wrap intense convection all the way around the center. If the eye ever clears out, the convection will probably become more symmetric.


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 24 2005 01:33 AM
Re: Pressure Drop

well now that i am runing my Grlevel3.... the eye is HUGE... based on this track.. will be interesting to see were OFFICIAL landfall point is.. Naples, in my view will get part of the eye...so will Marco... thinking Marco will be closer to the "center" part of the 60 mile wide eye for lanfall point....

Big Tk
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Oct 24 2005 01:33 AM
Re: Key West

Thanks for the feedback just conjecture on my part.

What conditions can we expect in the greater Tampa Bay area tomorrow morning?


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 24 2005 01:33 AM
Re: Mezovorticies?

It may be considered a vortex at this point; it is an arm of the smaller eyewall that did not close off and did not pull back into the outer eyewall. Convection has been firing off there periodically.

So -- I haven't been following the tracking at all, but I gather it's curving more to the north now? Hard for me to see on sat image. No "gator track?"


typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 01:34 AM
Re: Pressure Drop

Quote:

could that not just be a wobble? Of course a wobble at this point could be crucial to landfall




Sure...of course it could be... More important to bring up so that people don't let their guard down.


typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 01:36 AM
Re: Change

Quote:

I'm Using the Recon Fixes only...Not NHC fixes.

NHC averages the heading over 3-6 hours. Charley taught me to use RECON Fixes.

I am seeing a change...still working on the heading




..Oh, i wasn't aware there was any contention with what type of fixes you were using... i guess we're talking about two different things then...

..i'm just wondering if there's a subtle gain in n component and whether that reflects in 'any' kind of fix is entirely a bird of a different conversational color.


WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 24 2005 01:37 AM
Wave Heights

Our local Viper is showing 27' waves at Key West and 22' at Marco Island currently with 48' waves just off the coast between Key West and Marco Island.

WeatherNut
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 24 2005 01:37 AM
Re: Pressure Drop

I'm still facinated by all the possible interactions w/ Alpha and the wholde combined mess that could be off New England later in the week...that could end up being a big part of the Wilma Saga

soccermark6
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 01:38 AM
Naples

Im here in Naples dont post but thought I would give an update on whats going on.


Where I am at the wind is probably at about 30mph or higher heavy rain and I have seen some flooding in my area. We still have power of course or i wouldnt be able to post this. It has came on and of a few times but so far so good. its only going to get worse as the night go along!!!! going outside and video taping every 30 min or so to track the proggresive of the winds as rain.


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 24 2005 01:39 AM
Re: Mezovorticies?

also John King in CNN is in Marco Island....

He's going to get the worse part in about 3-6hrs!!!!!
Storm surge pictures will be interesting if they get any!!!!


age234
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 01:41 AM
Re: Mezovorticies?

Tornado Warning for ORANGE COUNTY


FLC095-240615-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0027.051024T0526Z-051024T0615Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
131 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA

THIS INCLUDES THE AREAS OF...CHRISTMAS...BITHLO

* UNTIL 215 AM EDT

* AT 130 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR STATE ROAD
520 SOUTH OF THE BEE LINE IN EASTERN ORANGE COUNTY...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO...MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE BEE LINE
AND TOWARD CHRISTMAS AND BITHLO IN EASTERN ORANGE COUNTY.

(snip - I would assume people on here know how to prepare for a tornado)

LAT...LON 2827 8102 2828 8084 2860 8093 2860 8118

$$

GLITTO


mojorox
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Oct 24 2005 01:43 AM
another tornado warning

dupe

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 01:43 AM
Re: Mezovorticies?

Key West now reporting sustained winds to 58 knots, with gusts to 65 knots (hurricane force):

KEYW 240539Z AUTO 15058G65KT 1 1/2SM RA BR FEW021 BKN027 OVC036 27/24 A2911 RMK AO2 PK WND 14065/0538 PRESFR P0018 TSNO


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 24 2005 01:45 AM
Re: Mezovorticies?

CNN wx dude is good (name: chad myers).... and who ever is running Titan in the background is GOOD too!!!

Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 24 2005 01:48 AM
Re: Mezovorticies?

Incredible, Cell L7 moving from the SE @ 72 MPH Eye looks to be about 55 Mi

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Oct 24 2005 01:56 AM
Changes

I have exhausted all of the Vortex fix changes.

Following are the hypothetical landfall locations from those tracks.
First set= Marcos Island

Second set= Homestead

Third set= Estero Bay, S of Ft myers beach.

Combo on the First and Third Set= Marcos Island

**The reason for the combo is those two fixes were run on basically the same Aircraft Heading. It was just an extra set to run out a theory.
I'll run another Combo on the next fix...also.

Now here is the Bad News.
With a 60nm Eye.
If she were to make Landfall at Marcos Island. The Eye would cover the west coast from Florida Bay to Port Charlotte.

If she made Landfall at Estero Bay...the Eye would cover the West Coast from Everglades City to Sarasota,FL

These are hypothetical Landfall Locations based on Wilma's Vortex Fixes and the tracks between them...extrapolated to the West Florida Coast.~danielw


mattgator
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:04 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Someone, perhaps on the weather channel or maybe Max Mayfield said that the forward speed of the storm is factored in and mostly added to the windspeed. So if the storm was moving at 3mph and is now at 18mph, then that increase of speed should be part of the runnup we saw today from 100 to 115 mph. That might indicated little actual strengthening of the storm itself but an increase in forward speed. However, as often noted the better circulation and drop in pressure also create increased wind speeds. So something doesn't reconcile 100 + 15mph forward speed + greated organization = ?

Also, isn't the storm almost pulling away from Key West?

Here in the Miami area (Coral Gables) there has been very little rain, winds are starting to pick up a bit. From a bit of figuring, I don't think the brunt of the storm will be here. We are a bit far south. Latitude 25.1 Long 82.7 now.

Stay safe


komi
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:06 AM
Stay Safe

Hi 2 all !

I moved from Sebring to Okeechobee to help my wife family to board house !

Yall stay safe .. and talk to yall on monday ...

If we can deal last summer with 3, we can deal with that one too ...


God bless you all .. .


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:08 AM
Re: Changes

I don't like doing the Hypothetical tracks.

I did one for Katrina and I discovered that Katrina would go ashore where I used to work. And put me in the NE Quadrant.

The tracks are just to narrow it down some.
If you will look at Skeetobyte's Map on the Main page it will help too.

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archive/forecast/AL242005ltsz.gif


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:12 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

The 2am ET position was listed at 25.1 N, 82.7 W, but that seems to be in error based on the radar and satellite location. That actually seems to be the location of the NE eyewall. Based on the 1am ET, position the new position would imply a movement of greater than 40 mph, so something is off there.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:13 AM
Re: Stay Safe

i think the landfall will be kinda between nexrad.....miami...key west...tampa...melbourne....
the closet tv radar i think is at wink tv...
http://www.winktv.com/x411.xml

i will look to see if i can find any others...

also to be honest... i think wilma trying to find where katrina came out of florida.... j/k... though it seems like it....

ABC7 live coverage.... fort myers
http://www.abc-7.com/LiveASX.asx?mswmext=.asx

appears they are running Fastrac.... Baron WX Service program...not sure if they have vipir


Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:14 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

I was watching Brian Norcross and he mentioned that there was some sort of technical issue and NHC is now pulling info from Key West radar, would that have anything to do with it?

harmlc.ath.cx
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:15 AM
Re: Stay Safe

lol right, taking over where Katrina left off at.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:18 AM
Re: Stay Safe

A bit off topic.

I thought something had happened to the wind speeds being reported. As the one I was looking at was Way below what it should have been.

It turned out that I was looking at the data from the second Recon plane that had taken off.

They were reporting 71kts winds at a location over Georgia.


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:21 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Quote:

I was watching Brian Norcross and he mentioned that there was some sort of technical issue and NHC is now pulling info from Key West radar, would that have anything to do with it?




I'm not sure what the problem is... the latest recon from 0554Z put the center at 25.0N, 83.2W:

URNT12 KNHC 240615
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/05:54:00Z
B. 25 deg 02 min N
083 deg 12 min W
C. 700 mb 2716 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 059 deg 080 kt
G. 309 deg 024 nm
H. 955 mb
I. 11 C/ 3049 m
J. 15 C/ 3046 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C60
N. 1234 / 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF305 2424A WILMA OB 33
MAX FL WIND 112 KT SW QUAD 04:11:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 18 C, 301 / 14NM


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:21 AM
Re: Stay Safe

watch out in naples... a tornadic storm heading that way.....

***CNN happen to have the local mayor on that the cell is headed towards as the warning came out.... GOOD LIVE TV*** mayor sayes everglades city is at sea level

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
214 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 315 AM EDT

* AT 213 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 23 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GOODLAND...OR ABOUT 14 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CHOKOLOSKEE...MOVING NORTH AT 75 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
GOODLAND
ROYAL PALM HAMMOCK
MARCO ISLAND
BELLE MEADE
NAPLES
NORTH NAPLES
VANDERBILT BEACH

IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF A TORNADO...SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY
BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR...AWAY FROM OUTSIDE WALLS AND WINDOWS.
GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 2553 8155 2559 8136 2638 8160 2630 8192


Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:23 AM
Re: Stay Safe

WFUS52 KMFL 240615
TORMFL
FLC021-240715-
/O.NEW.KMFL.TO.W.0014.051024T0614Z-051024T0715Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
214 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 315 AM EDT

* AT 213 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 23 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GOODLAND...OR ABOUT 14 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CHOKOLOSKEE...MOVING NORTH AT 75 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
GOODLAND
ROYAL PALM HAMMOCK
MARCO ISLAND
BELLE MEADE
NAPLES
NORTH NAPLES
VANDERBILT BEACH


mattgator
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:25 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

why do the tv reporters keep advising people not to evacuate now? It is the middle of night...who would evacuate during a hurricane in the middle of the night? time to turn off the tv and turn in...
cheers


superfly
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:27 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

130kts winds found at flight level which is equal to 135MPH surface. Latest vortex 955mb. This is in the SE quad so if the Keys experience the eyewall...

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:31 AM
More Hypothetical

Okay using the Last Two Fixes ...I'm still getting a resolution just South of Ft Myers Beach.

Heading of 40.7degrees True. At a 109 nm, roughly.

Distance between last 2 fixes=27.76 nm
Forward speed of 17.9kts or 20.6mph

109nm to go ( HYPOTHETICALLY) would put the EYE (Center of Circulation) ashore in 6 hours.


3rdGenFlaNative
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:33 AM
Re: Stay Safe

Dennis Phillips just reported a tornado a few miles south of Naples travelling 70 mph!

Terry Johnson
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:34 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

At the risk of being repetitive, who has the link to the GOM buoys.....lost mine in the last computer crash!

Thanks,
Terry


ShelleyMcD
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:34 AM
Re: More Hypothetical

Danny-

The CoC ashore in 6 hr, or the eye wall?

*<Yawn> 'mornin' all. Thought I'd check in- we had a band come thru central Sarasota that rattled the windows about 15 minutes ago.


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:35 AM
Wow

Thanks Superfly.
I thought I was seeing things there for a moment.

Look at the temp. and dew point changes in the area of the 130kt reading.
??Convective Tower???


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:36 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Quote:

130kts winds found at flight level which is equal to 135MPH surface. Latest vortex 955mb. This is in the SE quad so if the Keys experience the eyewall...



Wow, didn't expect that.

The windfield from this storm is going to be very uneven from location to location.

I just switched from long range to short range on the Key West radar and was wondering the same thing myself. They're about to get the strong rainband but beyond that you can see the eyewall, only it is hard for me to tell if the storm is moving more nly, and where that eyewall will be in relation to the keys.

Looks from the recon though that she is done intensifying.

I can't stay up any more; I'm so exhausted.

I'm guessing that if the Keys get hit with a high surge it will be spectacularly documented by the TV reporters down there (hopefully they've moved everything off the truck and into the third floor of some sturdy building!).

By the time I get going tomorrow I will come back to see Wilma offshore; then starts the concern for New England.

Is there anyone here who doesn't have hurricane burnout by now?


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:37 AM
Re: More Hypothetical

Center of Circulation.

I'll try the math on the Eyewall.

With the new wind speed readings it won't make much difference..


DrMos
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:38 AM
Re: Changes

Observed track is deviating north of the NHC track in a significant way now.

NHC track vs. observed

If this trend persists looks like CoC crosses Bonita Beach.


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:38 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Quote:

At the risk of being repetitive, who has the link to the GOM buoys.....lost mine in the last computer crash!

Thanks,
Terry




They're all out of commission. The closest are Dry Tortugas and Key West, neither of which report wave info.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/

Just remember NOAA; they have an excellent site map.


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:39 AM
Re: Wow

That wind reading may not be considered representative, since the eyewall in that area of the storm has recently developed a kink in it (on radar, which may be temporary), indicating the possibility of a meso-vortex. I guess we'll find out what NHC thinks in the next advisory.

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:46 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Margie, I have thought this thing was done intensifying on at least three different occasions, but it always seems to start back up again. It does seem that the SSW eyewall is getting very thin on radar.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:47 AM
Re: Wow

Okay using 30nm as the radius of the EYE.

109nm-30nm=79nm to go For The EyeWall
At the current speed of 20.6mph that gives 4.4hours.

Added to the last Vortex. This gives a rough estimate of 1018Z or 618AM EDT...Daylight?

This is hypothetical again...just rough arithmetic.

Thanks for link to the NHC course vs Present course.

You people are great. And I'm starting to drag a bit.


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:47 AM
Re: Changes

The eye is so large it extends practially from Marco to Key West.

Like NHC has been emphasizing, the exact location of landfall is kind of a moot point. This is the same problem everyone had with Katrina...thinking smaller, because the eye was so large it was hard to reconcile with previous hurricane experiences. Of course Katrina was a monster, this one is not, but Kat's eye was only around 30nm wide, Wilma is twice that.


Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:48 AM
Re: Changes

WFUS52 KMLB 240646
TORMLB
FLC097-240730-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0028.051024T0645Z-051024T0730Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
245 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CELEBRATION...WEST LAKE TOHO...SAINT
CLOUD...NARCOOSSEE...KISSIMMEE...INTERCESSION CITY...HOLOPAW...EAST
LAKE TOHO

* UNTIL 330 AM EDT

* AT 239 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH SIGNIFICANT ROTATION NEAR HOLOPAW...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
HARMONY BY 250 AM EDT
NARCOOSSEE BY 315 AM EDT
SAINT CLOUD AND EAST LAKE TOHO BY 320 AM EDT
WEST LAKE TOHO...KISSIMMEE BY 330 AM EDT


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:49 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Margie and Thunderbird12.

In the last 2 years here I have learned that "Never Say Never, When dealing with the Weather." It's funny but very very True.


funky
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:55 AM
Getting it here in 34202

well, wilma has arrived here in 34202....the wind is howling constantly now, and the rain has been pouring for a good hour or 2. i can't even imagine what it is like down south. omg.

Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:55 AM
Re: Changes

Looks to like alot of drier air is beginning to intrude on Wilma in the backside

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:55 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

I am seeing 'check digits' in the dew point readings from the aircraft in Wilma right now.

Not all of the readings, but quite a few.

Apparently it throws a "check digits" when the temperature and dew point are the same.


CaneTrackerInSoFl
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:58 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Key West is getting absolutely pounded right now. Just saw some video. WOW.

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:58 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Night, all. Enjoyed your company as usual...just can't stay up any longer.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:58 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Superfly...What's up with these numbers???

They keep going higher and higher!


superfly
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Oct 24 2005 03:00 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Quote:

Superfly...What's up with these numbers???

They keep going higher and higher!




Yeah no kidding, this will definitely be a cat 4 at the 3 AM advisory now.

0645 2441N 08207W 03046 5180 216 128 078 078 130 02909 0000000100
0645. 2442N 08208W 03051 5190 219 131 082 082 134 02904 0000000100
0646 2443N 08209W 03043 5204 222 132 090 090 135 02883 0000000100

135kts


CaneTrackerInSoFl
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Oct 24 2005 03:01 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Flight level winds of 135 knots. Wow, this is unreal. I am extremely interested in what the 3 am advisory says.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Oct 24 2005 03:01 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

And those are from the SE Quadrant...right?
They are NW bound approaching the EYE.


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 03:04 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

3am advisory is a few minutes late... they are probably debating about the what to do with the winds.

CaneTrackerInSoFl
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Oct 24 2005 03:07 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

3 am is out, they upped it to 120. Probably will have an update if the next pass through on the north side reveals the same flight level winds.

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 03:08 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

They bumped the winds up a little to 120 mph. I assume they are questioning whether those readings are representative of the intensity and whether they will persist.

Also, there was this from the latest advisory:

THE PREVIOUS POSITION ESTIMATE WAS A LITTLE TOO FAR TO THE EAST.
AT 3 AM EDT...0700Z...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 82.8 WEST OR ABOUT
75 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 95 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA.


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 03:18 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

A possible tornado was indicated by radar near Naples about 30 minutes ago, but that storm has since moved offshore. Also, people in Kissimmee need to take cover:

OSCEOLA FL-
308 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 AM EDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY...

AT 300 AM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
NEAR SAINT CLOUD...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

KISSIMMEE BY 320 AM EDT


IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM EDT MONDAY MORNING
FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Oct 24 2005 03:18 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

URNT12 KNHC 240711
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/06:59:30Z
B. 25 deg 08 min N
082 deg 50 min W
C. 700 mb 2695 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 222 deg 135 kt
G. 124 deg 046 nm
H. 952 mb....Down 3mb in 65minutes.
I. 8 C/ 3056 m
J. 17 C/ 3047 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C65....bigger by 5 miles!
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF305 2424A WILMA OB 39
MAX FL WIND 135 KT SE QUAD 06:45:40 Z
SOME LIGHTNING VISIBLE IN NW EYEWALL

Lightning Normally means the storm is intensifying!!


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 03:20 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Well, there it goes again. It doesn't look pretty on radar or satellite, but there is some extremely intense convection on the west side of the system and it is still deepening.



danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Oct 24 2005 03:29 AM
Course Change

From the last two fixes...Heading of 73.2degrees True

91nm from shore. On this heading of 73.2 degrees Wilma would Hypothetically make landfall on the Florida West Coast...Due West of Cutler Ridge.
(this hypothetical position is half way between Marcos Island and the Southern tip of Florida, near Florida Bay)

I'm sorry but she is throwing too many curves.

If you Are in the Area South of Ft Myers please Prepare NOW to take Cover!!

As Wilma's course and Intensity is changing rapidly.~danielw


Sheeper
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 03:30 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

0315 report from the Treasure Coast...no rain though a couple of very small, minor bands have passed over the last few hours. Wind is picking up here....maybe tunning a steady 20-25MPH or so. It is still very warm and very humid here

Things will be heating up from here as tropical focrce winds should be present within 2 hours or so.


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 03:31 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

A dropsonde in the SE eyewall measured 139 kt winds at 850mb, but only an average of 106 kts in the last 150m, so the current intensity may be a reasonable estimate until there is further evidence of stronger winds.

Big Tk
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Oct 24 2005 03:35 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

True north.....HUH
are u serious


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Oct 24 2005 03:35 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

The First Recon crew has been airborne for nearly 10.5 hours.
The second Recon plane is nearing Wilma.
Quick look suggests they will penetrate the NE Quadrant first...but don't hold me to that.


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Oct 24 2005 03:38 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Quote:

True north.....HUH
are u serious




I changed that reference. That Is A Mapping and GPS reference ONLY!!!

As opposed to Magnetic north on a compass...it is a reference point only for those tracking Wilma with a GPS.~danielw


Big Tk
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Oct 24 2005 03:43 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

The last few satellite images do look like a NNE movement towards fort myers. Not sure though

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 24 2005 03:43 AM
Re: Course Change

A more southerly track may occur because the lowest pressure on the entire east coast is at West Kendall. I always look for the lowest pressure ahead of the storm to see where it may go.
My current pressure is 29.40" and falling. Winds gusting to near 30 mph, but still no rain.


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Oct 24 2005 03:48 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

If you are In SW Florida. South of Ft Myers. AND within 1 mile of the Water. Please make plans to go higher in your place of safety.
This is only a precaution at this time. I am basing this on Katrina's behavior. As we don't know what Wilma will do.

Lower your attic ladders, so you can access them quickly. If you have life preservers...Keep them close by.
Flashlights, battery operated radio and a chainsaw or other tools for cutting through the roof.

Don't forget bottled water and possibly some food.
It could be a while before Rescue Crews arrive.

This is very harsh posting...but under the current Rapidly Changing situation I feel it necessary to Post it.

Cell phones may not work, but take them with you.

There is also the high probability of wind damage to your attics and roofs.
Remember..Hide from the wind and Run from the water.

This is dramatic, but it might make a difference somewhere.


Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Oct 24 2005 03:49 AM
Re: Course Change

Pressure is low all over the place, the storm is just getting close to you and also West Kendall just happens to be closer to the storm. 29.56 here and falling

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 03:50 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Key West airport reported a gust of 72 kts (83 mph) at 2:16 ET, before communications to the automated reporting site were lost at 2:52 ET. Also, storm surge flooding estimated at 3.5 feet was reported at the airport at 3:10 ET.

tpratch
(Moderator)
Mon Oct 24 2005 03:50 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

My youngest woke up crying so I'm up for a quick post.

The cellphone advice is fantastic advice. If your cell is on, there is equipment that can find you. A Florida-based telecommunication company makes those devices and have rolled out crews in the past to make sweeps.

Be safe and God bless.

/heading back to bed.


Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 24 2005 03:51 AM
Re: Course Change

WFUS52 KTBW 240750
TORTBW
FLC105-240815-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TO.W.0027.051024T0750Z-051024T0815Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
350 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL POLK COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 415 AM EDT

* AT 350 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO OVER LAKE WALES...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT...
LAKE WALES BY 350 AM EDT.
WAHNETA BY 405 AM EDT.
WINTER HAVEN BY 410 AM EDT.
INWOOD BY 415 AM EDT.


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Oct 24 2005 03:56 AM
Re: Course Change

Actually Richie,
I took the last two fixes and crossed the Peninsula.
They crossed near the intersection of 41 and 997 just NW of West Kendall.

But that ??track?? would pass North of NHC. Oh and that's the Center of Circulation that I was refering to.


Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 24 2005 03:56 AM
Re: Course Change

WFUS52 KMLB 240752
TORMLB
FLC097-240830-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0029.051024T0750Z-051024T0830Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
350 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SAINT CLOUD...NARCOOSSEE...HOLOPAW...
EAST LAKE TOHO

* UNTIL 430 AM EDT

* AT 349 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH SIGNIFICANT ROTATION 8 MILES SOUTH OF
HOLOPAW...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
HOLOPAW BY 405 AM EDT
HARMONY BY 425 AM EDT
7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAINT CLOUD AND 9 MILES SOUTH OF NARCOOSSEE BY
430 AM EDT


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 24 2005 03:58 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

well back on....
A lot of cells are popping up between Orlando and melbourne.... looks like could contain tornadic activity....

also within the last hour or so... think the could front came threw up here.... winds shifted and was loud to... first time i have heard something like that... wind is blowing now....

does anyone know if WESH tv is broadcasting on the net?

local wx sticks from a wx watcher
http://weather.net-waves.com/index.php

oh yeah.... Cocoa Beach video of tornado aftermath from earlier
http://www.wesh.com/video/5157708/index.html


Multi-Decadal Signal
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 24 2005 03:58 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

SE wind will push a very large, poorly rooted tree directly on my screened terrace for sure. The tree only puts down surface roots, (>2ft) deep, on this property. Kat took down a number of these type trees and she was almost nothing to speak of in the south FL portion of her track. Damn tree is going to open my pad up to the elements. I've no shutters...managed to get away with it for 11 years until very soon...Don't cry for me Argentina...Some variant of fig or rotten southern oak tree. Rats!

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:01 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Can you safely, cut the tree down Now???

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:02 AM
Re: Course Change

The track is definitely possible. I know that West Kendall is closer to the storm than I am, so therefore the lower pressure there. However, there are many other observing stations in the metro Miami area and West Kendall does have the lowest pressure, even though it is not necessarily any closer to Wilma than the other Miami area stations.

age234
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:03 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Quote:

does anyone know if WESH tv is broadcasting on the net?




I don't believe so. They're not even doing hurricane coverage on TV. Just a crawl with updates and a little radar/warning map.


bposner
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:07 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Quote:

well

does anyone know if WESH tv is broadcasting on the net?






http://mfile.akamai.com/12890/live/reflector:38189.asx


age234
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:09 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Oh. Well I guess they are...

Multi-Decadal Signal
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:10 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida *DELETED*

Post deleted by Multi-Decadal Signal

mysticalmooons
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:12 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

GREETING FROM ROCKLEDGE FLORIDA< lol


Hello, its been a long time since ive have posted but im back, went by cocoa beach earlier as im a manager snd cook at dennys to close and storm chase. Weather here is getting bad, tornados all over the brevard county area and Wilmas not even made landfall

Anyways wanted to say hi again and hope the mod's dont move me , lol


bposner
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:13 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Quote:

Miami CBS station has 24/7 coverage and streams. Google for url. Norcross has been on forever...




http://www.wfor.com/


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:13 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

No problem ..right now.
Stay Safe!!


Multi-Decadal Signal
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:14 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Condo Board would sue me. No buzz saw near to hand + I'm a Geezer. My days/nights of demolition, (bank vaults), are long behind me...

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:14 AM
Tornado threat increasing

INCREASING TORNADO THREAT FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

AT 345 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWED SPIRAL RAINBANDS CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE EYEWALL OF HURRICANE WILMA ADVANCES INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. SUDDEN...FAST MOVING TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PERIPHERAL RAINBANDS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA. TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO START OVER MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD...AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES...WITH 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE.

Cudjue Key just had 104 mph gust.


RedingtonBeachGuy
(Moderator)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:16 AM
Yikes!

Lightening woke me up, I walk outside to take a hard look, and almost walk into a tornado. I never saw it, not sure one was even there, but winds went from like 20 mph to 70 mph in seconds and was gone in 2 minutes or so. At a minimum, a downburst. Scary stuff when you can't see what's coming.

I have to say the Orlando TV stations are HORRIBLE! They are showing automobile commercials after attorney commercials after diet pill commercials instead of having community awareness to keep people informed in the general area of potential tornadic activity. Channel 13 is trying but they are covering everything in a 100 mile corridor which dilutes the coverage for the immediate Orlando area. Errr....

Hope everyone is safe!


mojorox
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:17 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

They are but I can't get a clear stream. An intense cell over Orlando right now with some wicked lightening. I am so tired but I am terrified of tornados.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:17 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

actually i don't think that is live... saw that earlier... that's there weather plus channel.... (recorded wx channel)... i think.... just the graphics update

harmlc.ath.cx
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:18 AM
Re: Yikes!

I agree, the local stations don't seem to be really taking this seriously.

bposner
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:21 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

Ok, Thought it was live last night (daughter is in Orlando was trying to keep an eye up there too)

Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:22 AM
Re: Yikes!

Agreed they Suck. It appears they took the night off. Had hurricane warning that was suppose to come through Lake Toho, where I live, weather alert went off, turned on tv, couldnt believe there was no coverage, went to New 13 and his radar was zoomed in on Daytona talking about how much rain they would get later today. Not what I needed.

age234
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:24 AM
Re: Yikes!

Yeah, what they're showing in that WESH video stream is not what's on TV. It's the NBC early, early show or something. This after they've been bragging about how they're the only station with reporters on both coasts and all that.

Just a quick question, is it unusual for indoor pressure to be a lot different from outdoors? Because I have a barometer indoors, and it says its 1018 mb (down from 1022 twelve hours ago), but that can't be right. Unless it's broken, I guess that's possible.


mysticalmooons
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:24 AM
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida

120mph on wilms? I thought it was 115 a few hrs ago? I just woke up so was it always 120?

coffee minded poster, lol


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:24 AM
Re: Yikes!

http://www.wesh.com/wxcam/1472282/detail.html
web cam orlando....

that cell actually that passed orlando on the east side... did contain a tornado awhile ago down near st. cloud... there looks like there are 4-6 more cells flaring up between orl-mel... up towards the cape... one just east of cocoa beach.... all look like could contain trouble!!!

cloud tops on cell just off cape.... 40,000ft
other cells to the west avg... 30-38,000ft


bposner
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:29 AM
Re: Yikes!

My computer looks like I know what I am doing, LOL

http://www.motorheadcity.com/images/weather.jpg


Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:32 AM
Re: Yikes!

WFUS52 KMLB 240828
TORMLB
FLC009-240900-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0030.051024T0826Z-051024T0900Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
426 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...TITUSVILLE AIRPORT...TITUSVILLE...
SHARPES...PORT SAINT JOHN...PATRICK AIRFORCE BASE...MIMS...MERRITT
ISLAND...PORT CANAVERAL...COCOA BEACH...COCOA...CAPE CANAVERAL

* UNTIL 500 AM EDT

* AT 423 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO EAST OF
COCOA BEACH...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
COCOA BEACH...JETTY PARK AND PORT CANAVERAL BY 435 AM EDT
CAPE CANAVERAL BY 440 AM EDT
MERRITT ISLAND BY 445 AM EDT
6 MILES NORTHEAST OF COCOA BY 455 AM EDT
SHARPES...PORT SAINT JOHN...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER AND 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF TITUSVILLE AIRPORT BY 500 AM EDT


RedingtonBeachGuy
(Moderator)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:33 AM
Re: Yikes!

Quote:

that cell actually that passed orlando on the east side... did contain a tornado awhile ago down near st. cloud... there looks like there are 4-6 more cells flaring up between orl-mel... up towards the cape... one just east of cocoa beach.... all look like could contain trouble!!!




No question about the one cluster that just passed here near the airport where I live.. there is another cluster around St. Cloud heading our way that is showing rotation as well. They just shut the airport flights down because of the cluster coming at us.

Wilma is up to 140 mph...


Multi-Decadal Signal
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:33 AM
Re: Yikes!

TV met coming on on CBS Miami

http://www.wfor.com/


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:34 AM
Re: Yikes!

update....cell coming ashore right at cap canaveral... winds gate-to-gate of 50-70kts at 995ft...
space center getting rocked again with next few minutes.


native
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:34 AM
Re: Yikes!

Good Morning all...live here from Deerfield Beach. Was woken up by (i) some drunk calling my cell looking for "Johnny Mellonhead" and (ii) the howling wind and rain. I have a 40-50 foot Oak Tree about 6 feet from my back patio and the acorns are pelting the metal pan roof and making an awful racket. Reports from here that wind is gusting upward of 47 mph...

I cannot imaging how bad things are going to get here shortly. Gotta say, it's rather weird watching it on TV in my kitchen here and knowing/seeing this monster's arrival is just a matter of time. 70nm eye! Good God. Like watching a train wreck...it's awful and you want to look away but you're glued. I will report conditions here for as long as I have power. The only upshot of Wilma is she's moving fast and ushering in some much welcomed cooler weather.

Stay Safe ALL!


Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:37 AM
Re: Yikes!

WFUS52 KTBW 240835
TORTBW
FLC105-240900-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TO.W.0028.051024T0836Z-051024T0900Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
436 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN POLK COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 500 AM EDT

* AT 436 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO OVER BARTOW...MOVING WEST AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT...
BARTOW BY 435 AM EDT.
LAKELAND HIGHLANDS BY 450 AM EDT.
WILLOW OAK BY 455 AM EDT.
WINSTON BY 500 AM EDT.


native
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:37 AM
Re: Yikes!

New report in....pressure's dropped 2mb. Per Brian Norcross reading from report received from NHC.

harmlc.ath.cx
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:39 AM
Re: Yikes!

Did that tornado actually touchdown in Bartow??

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:40 AM
Pressure

My pressure is dropping like a rock!!!!!!!!! 29.32" and falling rapidly. A drop of .10" in the last hour. I am going to shatter my lowest pressure reading from Frances. Winds really picking up too. Check the pressure/wind relationship graphs on my weather station. Power will go soon, I bet.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:41 AM
Re: Yikes!

been looking at some pictures from the other day.... WOW
http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/136592main_iss012e05256_high.jpg

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/multimedia/hurricane_wilma.html


native
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:48 AM
Re: Yikes!

Very squally weather now sustained....wall of sliding glass doors are starting to bang in their tracks...I hope they don't wake up the kids & hubby....only one of us needs to be awake for this! Coffe....someone mentioned coffee....I think I'll go make a pot before the power goes. On pins and needles for the 5am update. Her radar presentation is unbelievable.

native
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:50 AM
Re: Pressure

Hey Ritchie....is your tower secured or did you take it down?

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:50 AM
Re: Yikes!

well here we go

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
445 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN COLLIER COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.
MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 615 AM EDT

* AT 445 AM EDT....THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED
A TORNADO WARNING FOR DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 115 MPH IN
THE EYE WALL AND INNER RAINBANDS OF MAJOR HURRICANE WILMA.

* THE EASTERNMOST EYEWALL...THE MOST INTENSE PART OF WILMA...WILL
MOVE ASHORE FROM NAPLES SOUTH TO CAPE SABLE BETWEEN 500 AM AND 530 AM
AS HURRICANE WILMA MOVES NORTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH. WINDS OF 115 MPH OR
GREATER WILL BLAST THIS AREA THEN SPREAD INLAND MAINLY ACROSS AREAS
SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY. WINDS NORTHEAST OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE CATEGORY TWO RANGE ALONG THE PATH OF
THE EYEWALL AS THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA MOVES ONSHORE AROUND 6
TO 7 AM. LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE EYE WILL LAST FOR ABOUT
AN HOUR OR TWO FOLLOWED BY A SUDDEN INCREASE IN DESTRUCTIVE WINDS FROM
THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION AS THE HURRICANE ACCELERATES NORTHEAST.

PERSONS IN THE PATH OF THE EYEWALL AND EYE ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN IN
SHELTERED AREAS DURING THIS TIME. IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUT DURING THE
CALM OF THE EYE TO MAKE TEMPORARY REPAIRS...BE PREPARED TO MOVE BACK
TO SAFETY VERY QUICKLY. THE HIGHEST STORM SURGE AS HIGH AS 13 TO 18 FEET...
WILL INUNDATE LARGE AREAS SOUTH OF MARCO ISLAND. TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE
EARLIEST OPPORTUNITY TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF RELATIVE SAFETY...LIKE A SECOND
OR THIRD STORY ROOM ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE WIND...AS THE STORM SURGE MOVES
ACROSS THE ISLAND.

LAT...LON 2547 8117 2518 8117 2512 8110 2515 8084
2523 8090 2586 8100 2625 8140 2625 8183
2589 8173 2586 8170 2592 8163 2586 8150


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:52 AM
Re: Yikes!

Power flickering,will lose soon.Things going down hill fast here.Wind and rain really picking up.Good luck to all.

laureg
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:55 AM
Re: Yikes!

Well, I hope where ever Johnny Mellonhead is, he is in a safe place...

Heads up on something if your cell phones and house phones are both down...if you have a cb radio in your car (after things calm down) you can try to reach a trucker if you need to let someone know you are safe. My husband reached someone after Francis last year to call me in Tampa to let me know he was okay. That was the only contact I had with my husband for three days...

Weather is still very calm here, just waiting for the shoe to drop. Next door neighbors thought we were stupid putting our shutters up, but with all this anticipated tornadic activity, and all the half finished construction going on around us, prolly a good thing in case we get pelted. And, an interesting note...immediately after my husband put up the plywood, some bees found a hole and started building a nest in the window. We can see them thru the tinted glass in the room...there must be 500 bees sitting in there, waiting for the storm. Guess mother nature knows sumpin' huh...

We have excellent, wall to wall coverage on WPTV in West Palm Channel 5. They are great guys. They cover every blip on the radar. You should call that station in Orlando and complain.


WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:56 AM
Re: Pressure

My anemometer is well secured. I also made my coffee about an hour ago before the power would go out. I have battery backup for the weather station so I won't lose the data, but I may not be able to post it to the internet for days/weeks. I am a severe storm spotter and will call it in to the weather service.

Winds up again, 125!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:59 AM
Re: Pressure

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...25.5 N... 82.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB.


RedingtonBeachGuy
(Moderator)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:59 AM
Tornadic Activity

Lots and lots or tonadic activity all over the area.. I see another supercell just west of Melbourne heading up towards St. Cloud towards the airport. Some really dangerous high winds in the cluster.

native
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 24 2005 05:02 AM
Re: Yikes!

EEE GADS....winds now 125 as of 5am update!

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 24 2005 05:02 AM
Re: Tornadic Activity

going with marco island as official landfall.. should happen 1-2hrs from now....

ed from NHC was on Fox....about to have worse make landafall now... eyewall coming ashore!


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 05:03 AM
Re: Yikes!

URNT12 KNHC 240859
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/08:39:50Z
B. 25 deg 29 min N
082 deg 19 min W
C. 700 mb 2684 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 208 deg 123 kt
G. 135 deg 040 nm
H. 953 mb
I. 9 C/ 3032 m
J. 14 C/ 3042 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C60
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF302 2524A WILMA OB 10
MAX FL WIND 123 KT SE QUAD 08:28:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 15 C, 134 / 30NM


RedingtonBeachGuy
(Moderator)
Mon Oct 24 2005 05:04 AM
Re: Tornadic Activity

nice to see them get out of bed now that most of the activity has died out, huh? Geezz..

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 24 2005 05:07 AM
Re: Tornadic Activity

ed on CNN now... 125mph winds came from dropsonde in SE eyewall just a little bit ago....

JG
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 05:08 AM
Re: Tornadic Activity

Quote:

nice to see them get out of bed now that most of the activity has died out, huh? Geezz..




Stupid storm got me out of bed. Wilma sure is getting nasty and looks like she has about 1-2 hours to get nastier.

I do hope we don't see the last record to fall; a Christmas storm landfalling in the U.S.

That would probably make me move out of Florida.


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 24 2005 05:17 AM
Re: Tornadic Activity

they just said this will be the worst winds in broward sence 1950!This is going to be a long day here.Gust up to 50mph.Large branch just missed my house.

native
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 24 2005 05:17 AM
Re: Tornadic Activity

Don't know if HF is lurking this morning but....Hank, I'd love to hear your (or any other MET/MOD for that matter) in regards to the possible merging of Wilma & Alpha and what that might mean for the NE.

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 24 2005 05:18 AM
Never saw this before!!!!!!!!!

...EYEWALL WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

native
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 24 2005 05:21 AM
Re: Tornadic Activity

OK...here's what I want to know...who is in charge at the various TV stations for inputting the information that shows up on the crawler at the bottom? Is it really necessary to let us all know that the Boca Raton Town Centre Mall is closed today! No Kidding Captain Obvious! How about some more appropriate information.

Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Oct 24 2005 05:21 AM
Re: Tornadic Activity

Just an observation but I don't think little "Alpha" is going to make any difference at all. The Wilma system is just swalling it up and absorbing it.

There were a few small storms that were named this season when perhaps they shouldn't have been and Alpha is one of them.

5a.m. conditions in the Orlando area are of course rainy with light winds and some tornado warnings in the area.


Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 24 2005 05:22 AM
Re: Never saw this before!!!!!!!!!

WFUS52 KMLB 240918
TORMLB
FLC095-097-241000-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0031.051024T0918Z-051024T1000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
518 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN FLORIDA
NORTHEASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HOLOPAW

* UNTIL 600 AM EDT

* AT 512 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH SIGNIFICANT ROTATION 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
HOLOPAW...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
6 MILES NORTHEAST OF HOLOPAW BY 540 AM EDT


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 05:25 AM
Re: Never saw this before!!!!!!!!!

A new thread is now up.

ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 24 2005 05:25 AM
Re: Never saw this before!!!!!!!!!

I am just hoping my power stays on till daylite,but it is flickering more now.

Multi-Decadal Signal
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 24 2005 05:45 AM
Re: Never saw this before!!!!!!!!!

Quote:

A new thread is now up.




Just in the nick of time too.

Old thread was up to 27 pages.

Every body into the pool.



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