(Senior Storm Chaser)

Fri Sep 23 2005 12:16 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

Looks like the eye is just barely starting to show up on NOLA long-range radar:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.klix.shtml

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 12:22 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

KHOU.COM is saying that they dont know how much longer NHC can keep this a CAT 4 with the pressure raising.

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Sep 23 2005 12:23 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

Look again....pressure back down to 927 per last vortex message.

NewWatcher

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Sep 23 2005 12:29 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

RC or anyone,

Do you know a site to lookup hurricane info not by year but by statistical input. In other words, I am trying to find out the last year we had 2 cat 5's in the same year. someone said 1915 but i heard it was in the 60's sometime.
thanks

Ormond Suzie

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Sep 23 2005 12:36 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

TWC last night listed 3 times that double 5s had happened. One that I remember was Donna & Ethel. That would have been late 50s or early 60s. WeatherUnderground should have the date.

Edit: I just checked, and Donna & Ethel were both Cat 5 in 1960.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 12:39 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

Quote:

RC or anyone,

Do you know a site to lookup hurricane info not by year but by statistical input. In other words, I am trying to find out the last year we had 2 cat 5's hit in the same year. someone said 1915 but i heard it was in the 60's sometime.
thanks

Katrina hit as a Cat 4 and this one may hit as a CAT 3.

Lee-Delray

(Weather Master)

Fri Sep 23 2005 12:40 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

The pressure is up to 930mb as of 8 AM

MadDog

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 12:40 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

Donna was September 1960. I know that because my mom was extremely pregnant with me and hiding under an overturned couch when Donna went over.

(Weather Drama Guru)

Fri Sep 23 2005 12:44 PM

NHC

is to be commended. I have come to the conclusion that for me to "predict" where I think a hurricane will go is just a stupid guess. I will continue to see if I can make observations...but I have a lot to learn...

at least I was right about a possible Louisiana hit.

In the Mobile area, the water at the marina is 2 ft above the walkway. I had to wade to the truck...not sure how much higher it will get. just a small note on how powerful the storm surge will be...
anyone staying on the coast...is toast

Wxwatcher2

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Sep 23 2005 12:44 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

Really good news about the pressure rising.
Let's hope it rises dramatically throughout the day and that Rita's punch will be even more diminished as the storm approaches the Tx/La coastline.

While it's (fun?) to track a Cat 5 and keep track of records etc etc, I for one would be most pleased to see this one fizzle as it approaches the coast.

We have a major problem all along the coastline with moving people to safety.
What a monumental task the NHC has to issue warnings in a timely manner but yet the local authorities have the task of evacuating in some cases, millions, of people. As we've seen in the Houston area evacuations, the roads and gas stations etc simply can not handle the massive numbers of vehicles on the roads.

I'm sure that many of those who gladly evacuated this time will not do so next time simply because of the traffic.

There will be time for these discussions, Now, our thoughts are with all of those communities in harms way.

I have said this before and I will say it again. In years past, it was sort of a fun hobby....tracking hurricanes.
Last season and especially this one have made me painfully aware of the costs, pain, and suffering that is caused and the ripple affect that is produced throughout the country by the storms.
Therefore, my excitement for seeing a Cat 5 and getting all worked up over numbers has ended.
All I care is for this thing to eat lots of dry air and get a tummy ache before landfall.

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Sep 23 2005 12:48 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

Storm Surge Forecast Link
Storm Surge Graphs Link

(Weather Drama Guru)

Fri Sep 23 2005 12:51 PM

5 large oil refineries

are located on the eastern side of the Texas, La border....near the coast

Rita is bee-lining for them.

(Weather Drama Guru)

Fri Sep 23 2005 12:55 PM

Re: 5 large oil refineries

oops...I haven't had enough coffee yet. I shoulda said the western side....(Texas) sorry

rhendryx

(Verified CFHC User)

Fri Sep 23 2005 01:11 PM

Re: NHC

Rick,

I think there is something in the very nature of humans that wants to recognize patterns and project future trends. Similarly, I have been guilty of looking for price movement in stock market charts to achieve symmetry, and have found myself not only, disappointed, but poorer, when future stock movements did not meet my symetrical expectations!

With hurricane tracking, I purposely keep my track predictions to myself, as it is easy to look at every little jog and jag in satellite imagery as confirmation of one's anticipated trend. On another board, I have noticed a certain poster who lives in SW Louisiana and makes definitive forecasts that EVERY hurricane is heading in his general vicinity and will make several posts daily as the storm progresses using every bit of "information" possible in an attempt to justify and prove his prediction.

I find it entertaining and informative to read the posts of those who make fact-based predictions, though. It can be a learning experience to try to see what that individual is seeing and try to understand how or why that particular feature did or did not materialize or influence hurricane movement as the poster expected. Some who post these expectations might consider adding phrases, such as, "I think the hurricane might do X, if y happens" or "It may be a possibility for the hurricane to....".

Best wishes to all.

Rasvar

(Weather Master)

Fri Sep 23 2005 01:24 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

There is really no way to avoid the evacuation mess, short of mandating that most businesses shut down five days out so people can get out earlier. I certainly can't see that happeneing. Contra-flow could have been initiated sooner. However, texas had never even had that in their plan for some reason. The logistics of evacuating that many people is an almost impossible task. Plus, in a normal storm situation, areas east may have been able to take more evac traffic; but that area is in no condition to support or handle what they are getting, let alone a full flow.

Short of starting contra-flow sooner, I am not sure how you can do things any better. You do have a lot of people levaing who probably don't need to; but you can't stop that from happeneing. Unless you are in a costal zone or an area that floods in bad weather, probably would have been best to return home yesterday and not risk running out of gas on the road.

As far as the storm, just time to play things out. Things seem to be looking better. I noticed that NHC is still forecasting one more intensification spurt. I can understand their reluctance to downgrade this system because that may lead some people who do need to evacuate to try to return unwisely. This thing is one wobble away from either Galveston bay or the Tx/LA line. Going to be a rough next few days. The flooding and attempted return of evacuees will be the next nightmare after the storm hits.

Susan in Jupiter, FL

(Verified CFHC User)

Fri Sep 23 2005 01:31 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

Has anyone thought about September of 2004? Francis hit on 09/04 and Jeanne hit three weeks later, on 09/26, almost in the same spot.

Now this September we had Katrina hit on 08/29 and a little over three weeks later, 09/24, looks like Rita will be hitting almost in the same spot.

Kind of scary.......I sure hope this doesn't happen again NEXT September!!

well, frances and jeanne's eyes hit like 5 miles from each other, three weeks apart. this will be more like 200 miles apart, 3 weeks apart. not quite as tight. -HF

SMOKE

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Sep 23 2005 01:35 PM

Re: NHC

Hurricane track forecasting is very hard to say the least, for professionals and amatuers alike.
The impact of these major storms goes a long way for interagency cooperation, planning and public awareness/preparedness.
Often times civic planners build elaborate or simple planning documents that have never seen the light of da in practice. Plenty of practice now.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 01:59 PM

Re: NHC

24 people now confirmed dead from the bus fire of senior citizens being evacuated to Dallas.

(Moderator)

Fri Sep 23 2005 02:04 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

Susan, the distance separating Rita and Katrina's landfall points is closer to Charley and one of the girls.

Jeanne and Frances were less than 5 miles of each other, where Katrina and Rita will be 20+ times further apart.

Genesis

(Weather Guru)

Fri Sep 23 2005 02:09 PM

Re: NHC

This is likely off-topic far enough to get moved or poofed - go ahead mods if it is....

Reports on that bus were that the people on board had portable oxygen tanks with them that were in use.

There is a WIDE misunderstanding of the dangers of these systems. They are in use by tens if not hundreds of thousands of patients daily, most suffering from emphasema (smoking related in most cases) and some other maladies.

Many people say that the oxygen tanks "caught fire". That's not true - oxygen doesn't burn. But it does greatly accelerate combustion, and things that would not normally burn WILL in the presence of pure - or nearly so - oxygen supplies.

A person with a live oxygen feed going from one of those portable tanks is a severe fire hazard. Any source of ignition on or near their person can cause a fire that will spread with lightning speed. An enriched oxygen atmosphere, as would exist in a bus full of people who are all using these kits, would turn a minor smoldering wire event (no big deal) into a conflageration in seconds.

I see people banging these units around in South Florida all the time with no regard at all to the potential risks involved. I don't know if its because they haven't been told, or if they just don't care. As a diver who mixes up oxygen into his scuba gas, I take EXTREME care when working with pure O2 because of the potential fire hazard -and the impossibility of putting out any fire that DOES start in the presence of pure O2 unless I can shut off the flow of gas - difficult or impossible when the supply tank is engulfed in flames.

Transporting ONE OR TWO people on supplemental oxygen in a bus with good ventilation is probably not a big deal - unless one of the systems gets banged around and starts leaking at an accelerated rate. However, over many hours if ventilation is sub-standard, or if the bus is full of people on these systems, there is definitely an enhanced risk of trouble.

This is a tragic situation but as with many there is an issue of planning (or lack thereof!) and lack of appreciation of the risks involved if the early reports - that the bus was full of folks on supplemental O2 systems - are accurate.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 02:12 PM

Re: NHC

I dont see how talking about this tragedy is off topic, it was actually storm realted cause they were being evacutaed due to the Hurricane.

Is that the first reported deaths from Rita?

Saddens me to think of being trapped on a full involved Bus fire and not being able to get out.

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Sep 23 2005 02:13 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

Only 3 weeks apart and less than 5 miles from each other- that's amazing. In 1995 we had 2 hurricanes (Erin and Opal) 2 months apart. Both times the eye went dead-center over my home in Navarre. I thought the odds were pretty spectacular then.

The bus that caught on fire carried older evacuees and many of them were accompanied by oxygen tanks- that's one of the reasons the fire was so bad.

Are my eyes deceiving me or has Rita taken a N jog over the last several frames? I know they have a tendancy to jog as they get closer to the coast but this seems like a pretty substantial one to me. Might just be my untrained eye, though.

clyde w.

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Sep 23 2005 02:14 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

The last time there were two category 5 hurricanes in the same year was 1961. Hurricanes Carla and Hattie formed in that year. In 1960 Hurricanes Donna and Ethel both reached Category 5 status, and within 11 days of each other. So 2 category 5 hurricanes in the same year has occurred before and it has happened in less than 3 weeks in the same year as well--although it is still incredibly rare to see.

List of All Category 5 Storms

Rabbit

(Weather Master)

Fri Sep 23 2005 02:16 PM

Re: NHC

first off, that link was obviously created after 2002, but still states that Andrew never reached Cat V status, so you can add that one in there as well

It looks to me like Rita is still in a weakening trend, the eye has become very ragged on satellite and the western edge of the circulation is beginning to erode, indicating that dry air may begin to wrap into the eye later today. This is the reasoning i have had all along, and it appears that it is playing out. That said, i still forecast landfall intensity 125-135, if not lower.

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Sep 23 2005 02:17 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

This will be the 4th Gulf US landfalling hurricane to reach Cat 4 in 12 months..Ivan, Dennis, Katrina, and Rita!

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Sep 23 2005 02:17 PM

Re: NHC

Has the RECON reported back for the 10:00AM update yet?

(Meteorologist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 02:18 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

There is no sign of increasing shear affecting the storm yet and outflow seems to have improved slightly, if anything. However, as long as Rita continues to have an eyewall malfunction, it isn't going to do much intensification and the max wind speed will continue to be less than what the central pressure would suggest. Rita may also be a little more susceptible to wobbles as long as the eyewall is in a state of trying to reorganize.

(Weather Master)

Fri Sep 23 2005 02:19 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

Quote:

Only 3 weeks apart and less than 5 miles from each other- that's amazing. In 1995 we had 2 hurricanes (Erin and Opal) 2 months apart. Both times the eye went dead-center over my home in Navarre. I thought the odds were pretty spectacular then.

The bus that caught on fire carried older evacuees and many of them were accompanied by oxygen tanks- that's one of the reasons the fire was so bad.

Are my eyes deceiving me or has Rita taken a N jog over the last several frames? I know they have a tendancy to jog as they get closer to the coast but this seems like a pretty substantial one to me. Might just be my untrained eye, though.

No she is still going WNW to NW yet as if she was going north Rick and his gang would be back on in force but as of this moment she is tracking along to the wnw to NW with the eye not looking good but some convection trying to get going again.

rick had no support and he knows it didn't work, so lay off. ever noticed how nobody likes your tone? you're always knocking everyone else but don't really have the answers yourself. being a bully may make you popular in the third grade, but doesn't make you many friends outside of grammar school, ralph. ease off the pressure, mon. -HF

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Sep 23 2005 02:21 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

There is one name not listed on the list of CAT 5's and that would be Andrew that hit in 1992.

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Sep 23 2005 02:21 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

CNN is reporting that a levee has already broken in the 9th ward of NO- the industrial area levee. Here we go again...

clyde w.

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Sep 23 2005 02:23 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

pcola--go back one more month and you can make it 5 with Charley, although technically Ivan and Dennis landfalled as cat 3's.

HanKFranK

(User)

Fri Sep 23 2005 02:24 PM

under 24 til landfall

rita has continued to slowly spin down for the last 30 hours or so. pressure has come up 33mb from its lowest point... if a 1mb/hr rise continues, the landfall pressure would be in the neighborhood of 950-955mb. don't expect it to rise quite that high, but a landfall pressure 945-950mb seems feasible. based on the continued formation of our wind maxima and the slow expansion of the windfield, i'd expect that rita has lost its ability to reintensify. every eyewall cycle works dry air into the core and loosens it up, flattening the windfield. so, rita will be quite a windstorm, but not with the localized extreme destruction characteristic of storms like charley and andrew. on the other hand, it has been so strong for so long over the gulf that an ivan-like event near beaumont, over to cameron parish, is likely. high island is likely to be the equivalent of gulf shores last year, with beaumont taking pensacola's role. catastrophic damage no, but there is likely to be extensive wind and surge damage to the beaumont/port arthur/orange area. storm should landfall around daybreak saturday.. probably rated a 3, but with a pressure at or close to 4 status... and somewhat higher tides than normally assigned to a 3.
elsewhere philippe has nosed hard left around the deep layer low to the south and is edging bermuda. t.s. warnings were raised there at 9am. philippe is swinging into a higher shear zone, so it is likely to finally lose its definition, perhaps becoming absorbed into the subtropical system to the south. that could be stan in a day or two if it can develop a convective core... models still split on whether to send it ne, or stall it and send it west next week. most take it ne, or a very weak trough west.
gfs showing a scatter of potential systems, all appearing weak.. except for a consistently progged feature that develops near the end of the month in the eastern caribbean and drives wnw under a retrograding mid level ridge... forecast strong off along the east coast the first week of october. should this scenario occur, it is possible that a tropical system will threaten the s.e. us in around ten days time. some version of this feature has appeared in pretty much every recent run of the gfs.
there are other features appearing in the east atlantic on model runs as well.. not the least of which is the well-defined tropical wave near the cape verdes right now. it's late september, but that system looks good enough to develop, if it can maintain its integrity as it moves westward the next few days. there are also weak rumblings of a western caribbean feature in rita's wake... low-latitude westerly flow is backing over central america right now.. so once rita weakens the setup is there for surface low pressure to form. not much model support for this, however.
okay, what was the punchline? cat 4 less than a day from smacking beaumont as a weaker but still potent hurricane, and lots of little features that could potentially develop over the next week or two.
HF 1424z23september

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Sep 23 2005 02:25 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

Ralph, Give it a break man. Rick made an observation and prediction based on that observation. He was wrong...to an extent...

FYI...Rita does appear to have a more northerly component in the last few frames. Not necessarily NNW, but does seem to wobble more N than W recently.

NorEaster

(Registered User)

Fri Sep 23 2005 02:27 PM

Pressure Drops along the Coast of Texas

Hello Everyone, First time poster, long, long, long time flhurricane observer...

My resume in short (NWS employee for a year, NBC4 Weather employee for a year)

Taking pressure readings along the coast of Texas may be an arbitrary method of forecasting where the eye might eventually make landfall, but its one in which many of us have used for years...

Based upon current readings:

Gavelston Island Barometer: 29.70" (1005.7 mb)

Beaumont/Port Arthur, SE Texas Regional Airport Barometer: 29.71" (1005.9 mb

High Island Barometer: 29.70" (1005.7 mb)

Lake Charles Regional Airport Barometer: 29.70" (1006.3 mb)

Angleton / Lake Jackson, Brazoria County Airport Barometer: 29.73" (1006.7 mb)

I'll be monitoring this...but it looks like Gavelston's pressure drop is the lowest.

clyde w.

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Sep 23 2005 02:33 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

Good point. The Note at bottom of the link states that Andrew never achieved category 5 status. This must be a case in which the fact that it was upgraded 10 years later never got updated on this site. All of the internal storm name links go to Weather Underground, so I think the data is accurate otherwise.

(Weather Master)

Fri Sep 23 2005 02:38 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

Quote:

Ralph, Give it a break man. Rick made an observation and prediction based on that observation. He was wrong...to an extent...

FYI...Rita does appear to have a more northerly component in the last few frames. Not necessarily NNW, but does seem to wobble more N than W recently.

sorry but i see a true NW motion of the EYE in the last few frames.You are welcome to what you think but even Joe on Fox right now just said more west then north but think what you must.

Lsr1166

(Verified CFHC User)

Fri Sep 23 2005 02:38 PM

CNN News Alert

I just got the below news alert e-mail from CNN

" Rising water due to Hurricane Rita washes over levee in New Orleans hard-hit 9th Ward, Army Corps of Engineers says".

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 02:44 PM

Re: CNN News Alert

The water rising in No is something they expected. They did say that City will get water but no where near to what they have.

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Sep 23 2005 02:46 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

You are in fact correct. It was a wobble NW-NNW and now one to the W or even WSW...Therefore, a WNW-NW motion. I think the NHC has been real good all year and is continuing now. Looks like it will hit around the TX/LA border. Though Joe B is back to his doomsday self saying he still worries about a direct hit on Galveston.

(Meteorologist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 02:49 PM

Re: Pressure Drops along the Coast of Texas

Extrapolating the current long-term motion would take the storm very near Galveston, so they may win out on pressure falls for awhile. The forecast calls for the motion to turn more northerly with time, though.

(Weather Master)

Fri Sep 23 2005 02:50 PM

Re: CNN News Alert

Hurricane Rita Advisory Number 24

Statement as of 10:00 am CDT on September 23, 2005

...Rita a little weaker...still a very dangerous hurricane...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Port O'Connor Texas to Morgan
City Louisiana. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions
are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

At 10 am CDT...1500z...the Tropical Storm Warning south of Port
Aransas has been discontinued.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the southeastern
coast of Louisiana east of Morgan City to the mouth of the Pearl
River including metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain
...And from south of Port O'Connor to Port Aransas. A Tropical
Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 10 am CDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Rita was located near
latitude 27.4 north...longitude 91.9 west or about 220 miles
southeast of Galveston Texas and about 210 miles southeast of
Port Arthur Texas.

Rita is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph and this motion is
expected to continue during the next 24 hours. On this track...the
core of Rita will make landfall near the southwest Louisiana and
Upper Texas coasts early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 135 mph with higher
gusts. Rita is at the border of category four and three hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Slight weakening is possible before
landfall...but Rita is expected to come ashore as a major
hurricane.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 205 miles.

Latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
reconnaissance plane was 929 mb...27.43 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 15 feet above normal tide levels...
locally up to 20 feet at head of bays and nearby rivers...with
large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to
the east of where the center makes landfall. Tides are currently
running about 2 feet above normal along the Louisiana...Mississippi
and Alabama coasts in the areas affected by Katrina. Tides in those
areas will increase to 3 to 5 feet and be accompanied by large
waves...and residents there could experience coastal flooding.
Large swells generated by Rita will likely affect most portions of
the Gulf Coast.

Rita is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12
inches...with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches over
southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana as it moves inland.
Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible over southeastern
Louisiana including metropolitan New Orleans with isolated heavier
amounts possible. Since Rita is forecast to slow down significantly
after making landfall...total accumulations in excess of 25 inches
are possible over the next several days across eastern Texas into
western Louisiana.

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Sep 23 2005 02:51 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

Recon report:

Pressure 929 mb 27.43 in

Eyewall thin on the SE and SSW sides

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 02:59 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas *DELETED*

is it just me or is rita appear to have stopped in the last hour?

edit: I looked on the radar site and it does appear to be moving still...must have been the water vapor loop was playing tricks with my eyes....

(Weather Drama Guru)

Fri Sep 23 2005 03:03 PM

Funky....

excellent observation\ on Rita...I think you're quite right. I froze all but the last 4 frames...and there's almost NO movement...just a re-organization of the eye....what this usually bodes is a significant change in direction......a loss of steering currents....

we'll see.

appreciate the moderators here. this is a great website. all of us can learn so much.

MapMaster

(Weather Guru)

Fri Sep 23 2005 03:07 PM

Re: You read things that just make you wonder

Hmmm...

Three places have 29.70 readings...and in one case, you say 29.70=1005.7 MB, IN ANOTHER , you say 29.70=1006.3

So...if your premise is that the pressure is 'lowest' in Galveston, I don't know how you can say that.....

It's trends that show the most, not the actual readings......

Did you proof what you wrote? Is something missing?

????

MM

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Sep 23 2005 03:08 PM

Re: Funky....

Does a 1mb. drop in pressure mean much? It doesn't seem like it would, but coupling it with a slow-down in forward speed (even though recon hasn't stated that it has slowed down), could it make a difference?

(Verified CFHC User)

Fri Sep 23 2005 03:10 PM

Re: Funky....

Rick - which direction do you think it's going to head if it does change direction? I hate to think of it moving right OR left....New Orleans closer on the right.....Houston/Galveston area to the left.

Orlando is still overcast/windy/rainy today!

(Weather Guru)

Fri Sep 23 2005 03:12 PM

Re: CNN News Alert

I checked WWL and there are releases from AP on the overflow.
Said the water next to the levee is waist deep right now.
The report said that they are afraid the levee will breach if it keeps overflowing.

Tazmanian93

(Weather Master)

Fri Sep 23 2005 03:13 PM

Re: CNN News Alert

Just saw on MSNBC, they now have 3 over-top situations according to the ACOE. It was also stated that while they did expect this, they did not expect it this soon

(Weather Drama Guru)

Fri Sep 23 2005 03:13 PM

direction?

I have NO IDEA right now...
let's ask the moderators to help us understand what is happening to the steering currents. ....

it could go west....or north...usually when they stop...they change directions abruptly. I am NOT guessing here...I am just posting observations....

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 03:15 PM

Re: Funky....

Quote:

Rick - which direction do you think it's going to head if it does change direction? I hate to think of it moving right OR left....New Orleans closer on the right.....Houston/Galveston area to the left.

Orlando is still overcast/windy/rainy today!

on the lake charles experimental long range radar site, it appears to have moved north in the last 30 minutes.

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Sep 23 2005 03:17 PM

Re: direction?

Rick,

Glad to see you posting once again. How was probation? Did you have to wear finger bracelets so you couldn't type your predictions.

you are the man!!!

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 03:23 PM

Re: direction?

those of you on i-10 through la and eastern tx, you have about 2-4 hours before things are gonna start getting hairy. good luck to all of you and hope you find shelter.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 03:28 PM

Re: direction?

official track shifted eastward, i think it will be not enough...this thing looks like it is gonna hit lake charles.

Steve H1

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Sep 23 2005 03:30 PM

Re: direction?

FYI, 98L is up at NRL. 30 knot winds. More to come.

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Sep 23 2005 03:31 PM

Re: direction?

Funky,

What do you mean by saying the track shifted east but it won't be enough. enough of what???

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 03:33 PM

Re: direction?

Quote:

Funky,

What do you mean by saying the track shifted east but it won't be enough. enough of what???

enough of a shift to the east. look at the radar. this thing is gonna hit lake charles and points east.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Fri Sep 23 2005 03:34 PM

Re: direction?

Quote:

official track shifted eastward, i think it will be not enough...this thing looks like it is gonna hit lake charles.

It did not. The track has been the same since 11am Th; it has not been changed since then. This can not only be seen from plotting the points, but in every NHC discussion they specifically mention whether the track has shifted. From the 11am EDT discussion:

"NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE LANDFALL NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS OR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COAST EARLY SATURDAY."

andy1tom

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Sep 23 2005 03:35 PM

Re: direction?

i looked on the tidal surge link from an earlier post and the tides seem to be running about 3 feet higher than predicted at grand isle and 2 feet at galveston at around 6 this morning. so the fact n.o. is getting water sooner than they thought should come as no surprise based on what is happening at other locations

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 03:36 PM

Re: direction?

Quote:

Quote:

official track shifted eastward, i think it will be not enough...this thing looks like it is gonna hit lake charles.

It did not. The track has been the same since 11am Th; it has not been changed since then.

i'm sorry, i was watching channel 2 nbc out of houston. maybe they have their own "official track". either way, this thing has definitely changed course in the last hour. its moving due north, at most maybe 350 degrees.

(Weather Master)

Fri Sep 23 2005 03:43 PM

Re: direction? *DELETED* *DELETED*

Post deleted by SkeetoBite

(Meteorologist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 03:44 PM

Re: Pressure Drops along the Coast of Texas

Quote:

Hello Everyone, First time poster, long, long, long time flhurricane observer...

My resume in short (NWS employee for a year, NBC4 Weather employee for a year)

Taking pressure readings along the coast of Texas may be an arbitrary method of forecasting where the eye might eventually make landfall, but its one in which many of us have used for years...

Based upon current readings:

Gavelston Island Barometer: 29.70" (1005.7 mb)

Beaumont/Port Arthur, SE Texas Regional Airport Barometer: 29.71" (1005.9 mb

High Island Barometer: 29.70" (1005.7 mb)

Lake Charles Regional Airport Barometer: 29.70" (1006.3 mb)

Angleton / Lake Jackson, Brazoria County Airport Barometer: 29.73" (1006.7 mb)

I'll be monitoring this...but it looks like Gavelston's pressure drop is the lowest.

...Finally, someone doing some actual Meteorology... Pressure tendencies are a big factor along the East Coast during rapid cyclogenisis. They are used also when "bombogenisis" takes off and there are several dependable model camps predicting conflicting track guidance; i.e., pressure tendencies elucidate where the trough is carving... However, not sure how well this works with Tropical entitites... I would imagine, since everything in the atmosphere must ultimately and primarily respond to the PGF, particularly in a the ocean-boundary layered coupled model, they would still be very useful though. Great work!

doug

(Weather Analyst)

Fri Sep 23 2005 03:44 PM

Re: direction?

i would be alert in central coastal Louisiana...the radar loop from Lake Charles tells me it is moving North!!!!
I hope I am wrong!

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Fri Sep 23 2005 03:44 PM

Re: CNN News Alert

Quote:

I checked WWL and there are releases from AP on the overflow.
Said the water next to the levee is waist deep right now.
The report said that they are afraid the levee will breach if it keeps overflowing.

It is not the levees bordering the river or lake that caused the main failures during Katrina, and it is not those that are failing now; it is the canals that failed. There is some inherent structural problem with them and they will likely have to be reengineered.

You should see photos of what they looked like after Katrina.

Those are what are failing now. The main one is the Industrial Canal, which is what flooded lower 9th ward and into St Bernard Parish from the west at Chalmette (although St Bernard received flooding from two other sources; from the south from a levee bordering the MS river, ten miles long, which was gone after Katrina, and direct flooding from the GOM coming from the east).

Saw a quote that they were not expecting the flooding "this soon." Don't know why because NWS sent out the warnings. Flooding was more likely now than later when the storm moves to the east.

In Jackson County yesterday it was failure of the communications net, which is still mostly down anyway, which resulted in lack of general knowledge of last night's flooding from Rita, coupled with a higher-than-normal high tide. I'll find out how everyone fared this weekend when I hear from by brother.

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Sep 23 2005 03:45 PM

Re: direction?

Once again Margie is correct. No official track change. As we all know, these things can wobble left or right as they approach the coast. No exact landfall pinpoint is officially given for that reason- it's like trying to predict an individual's actions. No matter how well you think you know them, you don't. Storms have a mind of their own as well. You just never know for sure. It doesn't mean we won't try to figure it out, it just means that, in the end, we can't-they're gonna do what they're gonna do.

(Meteorologist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 03:46 PM

Re: direction?

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

official track shifted eastward, i think it will be not enough...this thing looks like it is gonna hit lake charles.

It did not. The track has been the same since 11am Th; it has not been changed since then.

i'm sorry, i was watching channel 2 nbc out of houston. maybe they have their own "official track". either way, this thing has definitely changed course in the last hour. its moving due north, at most maybe 350 degrees.

...I'm think I'm pretty much down with the word "wobble" for the rest of my life -ARGH! But, are you sure this isn't another attempt by the fluid dynamical gods to get you to yo-yo your course selection???

(Meteorologist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 03:50 PM

Re: direction?

Quote:

i would be alert in central coastal Louisiana...the radar loop from Lake Charles tells me it is moving North!!!!
I hope I am wrong!

Doug...Hi Also, there are currently tornado warnings flying for more than half of the geographical area of the Lousiana Delta... Can't forget these peripheral considerations...they are just as deadly.

doug

(Weather Analyst)

Fri Sep 23 2005 03:53 PM

Re: direction?

The radar loop posts 1hour of data...it may be a wobble but if it goes another hour it is more than that...that is what I would watch...
If it goes as indicated in the last hour NOLA gets slammed!

(Weather Master)

Fri Sep 23 2005 03:56 PM

Re: direction? *DELETED*

Post deleted by SkeetoBite

Genesis

(Weather Guru)

Fri Sep 23 2005 03:59 PM

Re: direction?

Tidal levels over here in DESTIN (yes, that far away) are running 2-3' above normal and have been since yesterday. I was quite surprised at how far above normal they were yesterday; today I was expecting it, but its still coming up - although more slowly.

Closer to the storm it has to be MUCH worse.

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Sep 23 2005 04:05 PM

Re: direction?

I live on East Bay in Navarre. I can relate- I've been watching the tides for 2-3 days now and they are consistently higher and are moving E very swiftly. Winds are up to 25-30 mph sustained w/ gusts of 35 mph. I realize that this is probably not the forum for it but I would like to hear what Rick in Mobile is experiencing right now.

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Sep 23 2005 04:07 PM

Re: direction?

My take on wobbles...look at hurricane Dennis..it came in well east of the storm track in Navarre FL, track to it to Orange Beach AL..was the NHC wrong? NO. It was the same type of wobble we are seeing here. Dennis would go due north for about 15 miles or so, then due west the same distance...it just so happened that on a north wobble it hit land, had it had another 10 or 15 miles it would have gone west again, and made landfall in AL...the motion was NW but it was heading due north at landfall..if this is the trend with Rita, timing is everything and can move the actual landfall point east or west by 30 miles, without changing the overall forward NW motion....being I wantched Dennis due this on radar before taking my roof, i know it happens

(Meteorologist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 04:08 PM

Re: direction?

Quote:

Quote:

The radar loop posts 1hour of data...it may be a wobble but if it goes another hour it is more than that...that is what I would watch...
If it goes as indicated in the last hour NOLA gets slammed!

HOW? it would have to bend NE to even come close to NO.

I hope you ment LA and not NO as thjis storm is already way east of NO and the eye poses no danger to there at this time or in the dir its going now.

Yeah...I tend to agree with this Doug... I think you have to see a radical change in course heading to about 015-02 degrees from 0 (or N) and that is just not in the cards at this time...

However, NOLA has huge issues...The 9th ward (as reported by the incredible ethical FOX NEWS...) is "filling up", as they say. The levee that protects that area has failed! Goes to show you had tenuous that whole scenario is... The get 1 foot of storm surge up in that inlet to Lake P. and the hydrostatic pressure is too much for the Army Corp of Engineers makeshit design...

In other words, they may not need to be directly whacked to get the noteriety of being directly impacted.. Because, the levee may not have failed without this new onslaught... Just something to think about...

(Verified CFHC User)

Fri Sep 23 2005 04:10 PM

Re: direction?

Ralphfl - If I remember right, Charley took a quick right hand turn and came across to hit Orlando instead of the projected path to Tampa. There is no reason to be so harsh when someone states their own opinion. As I stated yesterday, I really enjoy this site until you and a couple of others start posting. The tone of your posts are indicative of someone with extreme anger management issues. Please try to keep your tone down.....I am sure there are others who would appreciate it.

Kimberley Clark

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Sep 23 2005 04:12 PM

Re: direction?

We here in Southern Alabama are also under a tornado warning until 6:00 p.m. this evening. The Causeway was becoming overcome with water this morning on my way in to work. The wind is up there also. At least for those of us driving SUVs and such. My parents are off of Dog River and they already had half their huge yard under water this morning. Downstairs from where I work (one-half block off of Water Street) they have sand bags in place. This storm is affecting so many people.

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Sep 23 2005 04:17 PM

Re: direction?

Good grief Ralph. Doug even said specifically in his post that maybe it would hit central LA. If it does hit central LA, NO will be hit very hard. Not with hurricane force winds, but rain and some additional surge. You either need anger management classes or need to learn how to respect other opinions.

(Weather Master)

Fri Sep 23 2005 04:19 PM

Re: direction? *DELETED*

Post deleted by SkeetoBite

(Weather Drama Guru)

Fri Sep 23 2005 04:19 PM

LAST LITTLE BIT

DIRECTION N-NNW....HEADING FOR THE EAST SIDE OF LAKE CHARLES. IF SHE DECIDES TO MAINTAIN THIS "WOBBLE".....THEN WHAT CAN PREVENT HER FROM HEADING TO BATON ROUGE...OR...POINTS EAST?

HOPEFULLY IT'S A WOBBLE

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Sep 23 2005 04:21 PM

Re: direction?

And you feel it is your duty to chastise those with opinions?

(Meteorologist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 04:21 PM

Re: direction?

Quote:

We here in Southern Alabama are also under a tornado warning until 6:00 p.m. this evening. The Causeway was becoming overcome with water this morning on my way in to work. The wind is up there also. At least for those of us driving SUVs and such. My parents are off of Dog River and they already had half their huge yard under water this morning. Downstairs from where I work (one-half block off of Water Street) they have sand bags in place. This storm is affecting so many people.

Kimberly, God bless and good luck! You are actually under a tornado "watch", which means conditions are quite favorable for tornadic activity. If you should come under a warning, please heed that! It means a tornado is immanent in your local area. There is a bit of a difference between the intended states of alertness with "watch" vs "warning".

Nevertheless, the entire area of the Upper Gulf Coast, W of the Pensacola is in one way or the other being affected by this tempest. In a way, she is worse for you folks than the prognostics of the earlier days. She's been entraining dry air in gulps over the past 24 hours and this has caused a few mechanical changes in her core..One of which is to expand her wind field to encompass a greater area. This is actually worse for storm weary denizens of New Orleans and other areas of the Louisiana Delta, because otherwise may have meant a storm passing safely SW; close, but still safe. In this situation, (and barring a radical change of heading toward the N which would have to begin right now!), you will still unfortunatley have to contend with tropical storm force wind gust in heavier squalls, which is really akin to pouring salt into a festering wound.

Hopefully you have the ability to stay tuned to your local municipalities and can follow their instructions during the course of this unbelievable indirect attack.
Peace.

(Weather Drama Guru)

Fri Sep 23 2005 04:22 PM

new frame now shows back west

it's a wobble...I think...probably going in where the NHC is saying.

(Verified CFHC User)

Fri Sep 23 2005 04:26 PM

Re: direction?

Ralphfl - everyone knows that two EYEwitnesses to an event will see things differently. Therefore, other people may see RITA a little differently, depending on what type of map, data, etc. they are viewing. I doubt that you get it right every time. As far as not posting opinions, I don't think that this would be much of a forum if we weren't allowed to do that.

(Weather Master)

Fri Sep 23 2005 04:31 PM

Re: direction? *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Sep 23 2005 04:32 PM

Re: direction?

Look... everyone on this website should know by now that a 1-degree change in any direction makes a 40-50 mile difference in where it goes makes landfall. That shouldn't be news. The point is that we are just trying (key word!) to use our knowledge to discern what MIGHT happen with Rita. Nothing more, nothing less- don't you agree?

SirCane

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Sep 23 2005 04:35 PM

Re: direction?

Check out this radar. Definately a jog North taking place.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/lix_N0Z_lp.shtml

(Moderator)

Fri Sep 23 2005 04:35 PM

Re: direction?

Ralph, you're starting to be a bit more abrasive. Enhance your calm

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/lch_N0Z_lp.shtml

Lake Charles radar is showing an almost perfect 315 degree motion to the eye (due NW). I got out the dry erase markers, my level, my protractor and Everything!

rwjaco19

(Registered User)

Fri Sep 23 2005 04:36 PM

Re: direction? *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

(Meteorologist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 04:37 PM

Re: new frame now shows back west

Quote:

it's a wobble...I think...probably going in where the NHC is saying.

Hi Rick,
..Of the two technologies, radar will always be clearer as the center of circulation along any given point, and will therefore always be more accurrate in determine true track behavior... CDO pulse and sometimes have mass/fluid dynamical discontinuities which can cause eccentricities as it whirls... Anyway, the following may help clarify some of the "wobble or not" issues as the eye is just coming into range.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.klix.shtml

(Verified CFHC User)

Fri Sep 23 2005 04:39 PM

Re: direction?

Yes, I totally agree! Because when it comes down to it, no one really knows exactly where these storms will go. I enjoy reading the various opinions to see if they fall in line with my predictions (which I will keep to myself).

Does anyone know how the evacuations out of Houston are going? I am concerned that some people may become stranded on the road when the storm hits. That would be horrible.

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Sep 23 2005 04:40 PM

Re: direction?

Thank god she's slowing down but i fear it held cat 5/4 too long for the storm surge to settle down much. New Orleans is getting an overflow over one of the levees right now but no non-fox generated actual reports of breeching so lets pray they hold!

(Moderator)

Fri Sep 23 2005 04:40 PM

Re: new frame now shows back west

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/lch_N0Z_lp.shtml

The lake charles radar has the entire eye viewable and is likely the better choice (for now) to see the motion. There's one blip of anything approximating N, and even that point is NW of the original one. Give me a moment and I'll show it via graphic.

(Weather Guru)

Fri Sep 23 2005 04:43 PM

Re: direction?

The gov was just on and said the roads have finally cleared enough to drive the speed limit in most places. He also said that in a cpla hours, he is going to ask for copter fly-overs of the evacuated areas to be sure that no one is there who doesn't want to be.
He did get slammed about the failure to open contraflow earlier.
I am in Austin this year (I"m from New Orleans) and the town is at a standstill due to the influx of Katrina and now Rita people everywhere.
KHOU does a netcast if you are interested.

MadDog

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 04:43 PM

Re: direction?

Niel Frank just said that they have not seen the northerly turn that they were expecting. It is still on a NW track.

(Meteorologist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 04:45 PM

Re: direction?

Quote:

Niel Frank just said that they have not seen the northerly turn that they were expecting. It is still on a NW track.

Which is quite evident by http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.klix.shtml

Kimberley Clark

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Sep 23 2005 04:46 PM

Re: direction?

And ya know I was trying so carefully to make sure I put "watch" and typed "warning". Sometimes the brain goes into overload. Oh well. Thanks so much for the input. It is sad when you see your neighbors in Bayou La Batre with children still living in tents and being told that they can have their power turned back on only if they sign a waiver that the City is not responsible for loss of life or property. This has been one CRAZY hurricane season. I'm also hoping the tarps on my roof are put back in the correct spot. We lost our home owners' insurance last year after IVAN. They gave us $2500 to fix $50,000 + in damages, then let us pay the premium for another several months and sent us a renewal notice saying that unless we had pictures of proof of all the damage fixed, they would not renew. There is no way we could do it. Now, we just have insurance in the Lord. This time, (Katrina) we lost more shingles and more insulation and facier board hanging. We also lost about 7 chestnut trees and two cherry trees in the back yard that broke the water line in three different places and only without power for a week. I consider myself blessed though, truly. I lost no family members and I have a very big family. 13 brothers and sisters and they are all okay. Peace back at ya.

(Weather Master)

Fri Sep 23 2005 04:46 PM

Re: direction? *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Sep 23 2005 04:48 PM

Re: direction?

Psyber,

The levee has breached a 30 ft section of the canal levee. I was just watching on t.v. from CNN Headline News. Water already at waist level in tyhe 9th Ward.

(Weather Master)

Fri Sep 23 2005 04:51 PM

Re: direction?

before i go it looks like dry air coming in again to center i hope this drops it below to a cat 3 which no matter where it goes would help alot.the EYE looks very ragged.

carolt

(Registered User)

Fri Sep 23 2005 04:52 PM

Re: levees

A non_FOX source on levee breeches:

"Our worst fears came true," said Maj. Barry Guidry of the Georgia National Guard.
"We have three significant breaches in the levee and the water is rising rapidly," he said. "At daybreak I found substantial breaks and they've grown larger."

AP report

(Moderator)

Fri Sep 23 2005 04:52 PM

Re: direction?

there is a less than 5 degree incline from due NW on the radar. Get me a higher-resolution radar, and I'll have a more accurate number.

Sportsfreak1989s

(Registered User)

Fri Sep 23 2005 04:52 PM

Re: direction?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

Well I live in Lafayette and we are starting to get really bad rain bands. I do live in a low lying area to, but we are going to go to my COusins house in a couple hours but I just wanted to show ya'll the north-ward "Jog." I am staring to get pretty worried b/c I am only about 10 miles away from the coastline. Can someone tell me if this is a jog or say it last for about 3-4 more frames would it still be considered a jog??

Thanks....Andy

God Bless who ever this monster hits.

(Verified CFHC User)

Fri Sep 23 2005 04:53 PM

Re: direction?

Rick on boat - re: your PM to ralphfl - thanks for giving me a reason to laugh in the midst of all the chaos.

Glad to hear that people in/around Houston are getting out. I am saying a prayer for the poor people who died in this morning's bus fire. A terrible tragedy before the potential of an even bigger tragedy.........

Terra

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Sep 23 2005 04:55 PM

Re: direction?

The Fork Polk radar is unavailable... I guess we have to go back to New Orleans long range. Last frame of the IR was odd looking, in terms of
direction and eye configuration.

Edit-Phew... it's back up now... maybe t'was down from overuse...

P.S. It's very inappropriate to post private messages in a public forum.

Wxwatcher2

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Sep 23 2005 04:59 PM

Re: direction? *DELETED*

Post deleted by SkeetoBite

bucagator

(Registered User)

Fri Sep 23 2005 05:00 PM

Re: direction?

I found this site last year after Charley took a "wobble" towards Charlotte Harbor and by the grace of God I was fortunate enough to think "what if that is more than a wobble?" Six hours and 100 miles inland later my town was destoyed and half of my roof was gone. Had I not guessed that the wobble was a turn and made rapid preperations it would have been much worse at my house. NO ONE OFFICIALLY called it a turn for at least a couple of hours, including Paul Delagado.

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Sep 23 2005 05:01 PM

Re: direction?

Not trying to change the subject, but does anyone have any inof/link to 98L? Thanks!

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Sep 23 2005 05:02 PM

Re: direction?

Not trying to change the subject, but does anyone have any info/link to 98L? Thanks!

SkeetoBite Administrator

(Master of Maps)

Fri Sep 23 2005 05:02 PM

Re: direction?

Ok folks. Talk about hurricanes or leave. Any more foolishness and those involved will be banned for the duration of this storm, possibly the season.

MikeC

(Admin)

Fri Sep 23 2005 05:05 PM

Re: direction?

Once again I check my own site out during lunch and find it going crazy. Some of our mods are directly involved with Rita perperation so we've had a slow period during the day. I'll fix this instead of updating. I'll be back around 6PM.

Hootowl

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 05:05 PM

Re: direction?

Try this radar - lost the eye in the other one posted. (or the other radar went ka-blooey)

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.klch.shtml

and I'll keep my mouth shut about all the other goings on in these posts the last couple of days.

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Sep 23 2005 05:06 PM

Re: direction?

I know rita is the talk of the town now, but when did Phillipe change direction to a WNW at 18MPH. Stand-by East Coast.

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Sep 23 2005 05:15 PM

Re: direction?

Mike,

Thanks for the update on Philippe... let's stay focus on the weather.

Edited by SkeetoBite (09/23/05 01:10 PM)

I thought this was a tropical storm, isn't that weather, and concern.

doug

(Weather Analyst)

Fri Sep 23 2005 05:17 PM

Re: direction?

you can use the link posted on the main page to the Lake charles radar...that is doing fine

(Weather Guru)

Fri Sep 23 2005 05:19 PM

Re: direction?

Quote:

Quote:

Niel Frank just said that they have not seen the northerly turn that they were expecting. It is still on a NW track.

Which is quite evident by http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.klix.shtml

Yup... Neil Frank was just on again, and essentially he says he is "not optimistic" that it will be taking a turn northward... he says if you look at the 3-hour plots, it's still on a general NW heading (toward Galveston). He also said that the steering currents that would pull her north are "weak", and that, because she is still a powerful hurricane, she'll pretty much do her own thing....

In case anyone missed it from the front page and other posts, here are links to local Houston tv stations, most of which offer live streaming coverage:

www.khou.com (registration may be required, but it's worth it)
www.kprc.com (a little to sensationalist, IMHO)
www.ktrk.com (not bad)

Also radio:

www.ktrh.com (this was one of the best sources for news when Claudette came on shore a few years ago)

NorEaster

(Registered User)

Fri Sep 23 2005 05:23 PM

RITA running into a brick wall of dry air

Well actually, more like an intrusion of dry air that got sucked in from the land (always a problem when these huge (diameter wise) storms get anywhere near land. Its like a vacuum that sucks in a chord and wraps around the spindle brushes choking the mechanism.

For you football fans...I'd compare this to Terrell Owens running head first into Warren Sapp. BAM!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/WV/20.jpg

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/RGB/20.jpg

It looks as though Rita is emerging off of the Loop Current Eddies and into cooler water(but still more than warm enough to sustain CAT 3-4 Status) as demonstrated by the following image....

http://ccar.colorado.edu/~leben/rita_wind.jpg

(Meteorologist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 05:31 PM

Re: direction?

Quote:

I know rita is the talk of the town now, but when did Phillipe change direction to a WNW at 18MPH. Stand-by East Coast.

Thanks for the update on Philippe... let's stay focus on the weather.

I was warned to stay on Rita last night when I enlightened folks as to the other features in the tropics that were of interest... So, at great risk (apologizies to the mod) I will just say this one thing... The subtropical low was a fairly unexpected event that has emerged in the past 2 days... Actually, the U/A counterpart the has assisted in boring a circulation down to the surface is more than partially to blame for Philippe's decay and encountering of hostile environments, as it began imparting shear fairly early in the game. As it were, the models had done a lousy job (now coming around to it however) in the evolution of the subtropical low and therefore is likely why they did not see the inevitable interaction with Philippe.

As a synoptic trained Meteorologist I can say that any threat to the East Coast is extremely minimal at this time. There are large scale changes occuring that will prevent westward movement of any tropically transition system in that area... Namely, teleconnections are beginning to slowly come around to the idea of troughing near 70w, which would immediately cause SW steering components, effectively protecting the E Coast.

doug

(Weather Analyst)

Fri Sep 23 2005 05:42 PM

Re: developing system

The globals feel this situation and develop a low there Most trap it however, and it lingers...but none show any movement to the coast. CONUS involvement after Rita may have to originate in the SW Carribean.

On Rita: the last two hours of sat loops and radar show a serious jog north...overall slightly west of north. One more hour of that and something on the heading will have to change in my opinion.

(Weather Guru)

Fri Sep 23 2005 05:48 PM

News from Houston

Here's a quick rundown of some news from Houston:

-- Both major airports (Intercontinental and Hobby) are now closed.

-- The freeways are pretty much back up to speed, but many motorists are out of gas and stranded on the side of the road. Officials are sending helicopters up to locate stranded motorists, and sending tanker trucks.

-- Officials are recommending to people who may be stuck on the road to just go to the nearest shelter instead of trying to continue to leave town.

-- METRO bus service on standby to evacuate people, take them to shelters, move around rescue workers, etc.

-- Gas stations along the freeways are slowly being refilled.

-- Galveston should expect hurricane force winds just after dark, and continuing for about 12 hours.

-- About 5,000 people stayed on Galveston Island... one lady interviewed said she stayed because she was worried about looting... There is a "shelter of last resort" that is going to stay open on Galveston.

On a personal note, my elderly grandparents made it out of Beaumont -- they were on the road for 14 hours yesterday and only made it as far as Lufkin (normally a 2 hour drive). My aunt drove down from Dallas, picked them up, and took them back to Dallas with her.

Cash

(Verified CFHC User)

Fri Sep 23 2005 05:52 PM

Re: developing system

Doug:

You just posted, "On Rita: the last two hours of sat loops and radar show a serious jog north...overall slightly west of north."

This is the kind of thing that gets a lot of people aggravated here. All you'd have to do is put the edge of a piece of paper against your monitor screen to realize that that statement above is just false. And the reason why it gets people aggravated is that this stuff matters a lot. The storm is going exactly where the NHC has it forecast to go - on a line straight toward the LA/TX border.

Everyone needs to stop imagining curves that aren't there and stop extrapolating short-term jogs into greater trends. Most of us have seen enough hurricanes to know better.

Michael Cash
(of the newly reflooded town of New Orleans)

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Sep 23 2005 06:02 PM

Re: News from Houston

Quote:

-- About 5,000 people stayed on Galveston Island... one lady interviewed said she stayed because she was worried about looting... There is a "shelter of last resort" that is going to stay open on Galveston.

On a personal note, my elderly grandparents made it out of Beaumont -- they were on the road for 14 hours yesterday and only made it as far as Lufkin (normally a 2 hour drive). My aunt drove down from Dallas, picked them up, and took them back to Dallas with her.

Worried about what? Not getting in on the local Walmart "free for all" after the hurricane's gone?

Honestly, what makes people think that a> their personal property is worth their lives b> they could stop determined and probably armed looters when/if the situation arises. There will be VERY few police that weren't smart enough to get the hell out of dodge too!

Glad to hear about your grand parents. There's another dude on here that signed off a couple days ago from Beaumont...I know it's a little early but by the looks of things, I'm sorry about their property loss. Looks like they're going to take a pretty sizable hit.

(and possibly a N-E quandrant hit if this thing gets going a bit more west again.)

Lake Toho - Kissimmee

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Sep 23 2005 06:05 PM

Re: developing system

Its down to a Cat 3 now.. 125 MPH Winds

(Moderator)

Fri Sep 23 2005 06:13 PM

Re: developing system

Red line shows the path from the center on the first two frames. White lines are headings of 270, 315, and 360

Quick loop I made... Motion has been NW (and currently a jog W of NW).

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Sep 23 2005 06:18 PM

Re: developing system

With all the discussions of W, WNW, NW, NNW, or N and trying to figure out for myself which way it is going, I decided to use FSU's GIS enabled radar to find the distances and bearing from a singular point (per each radar update) to three select cities. This is not exact science but based solely on these numbers (which in all reality mean absolutely nothing), anyone can see that the hurricane regularly makes jogs (demonstrated in the table by the change in distance over time from a given point).

What does this all mean? Nothing spectacular.

DISTANCE/BEARING FROM POINT ON RITA
ZULU TIME LAFAYETTE BEAUMONT GALVESTON
1627 170/0 198/322 193/300
1648 164/1 194/322 188/299
1715 164/1 191/321 188/299
1726 159/3 183/322 180/298
1737 156/3 183/322 179/298
1742 157/4 181/322 178/298
1753 155/5 178/322 174/298
1804 153/7 173/323 169/298
1814 152/7 173/323 170/299

(Meteorologist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 06:26 PM

Re: developing system

Quote:

With all the discussions of W, WNW, NW, NNW, or N and trying to figure out for myself which way it is going, I decided to use FSU's GIS enabled radar to find the distances and bearing from a singular point (per each radar update) to three select cities. This is not exact science but based solely on these numbers (which in all reality mean absolutely nothing), anyone can see that the hurricane regularly makes jogs (demonstrated in the table by the change in distance over time from a given point).

What does this all mean? Nothing spectacular.

We have to ask our selves...what in nature follows a perfectly linear course?? Answer, nothing...
Even the photons of a lazer beams travel in waves. Basically, if you have anything in motion in physics you have "giga motions", which are unpredictable tough to detect random occurrences that take place on minute scales, that accumulated in time and space and cause perpendicular oscillitory affects on large scales. Hurricanes, such as Rita, are no different. In other words, there are no hurricanes that travel linear paths...they all oscillate, some more minutely then others but they all do so...

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Sep 23 2005 06:29 PM

Re: developing system

You go, man!. I think ( maybe not very successfully) that I've been trying to say the same thing. It's going to go where it wants to- all we can be is appreciative bystanders. I have tremendous reverence and respect for these storms.

bobbutts

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 06:30 PM

Re: developing system

Watching it on radar it appears to me anyway to be rebending a tiny bit to w the past couple hours. 2 hour heading about 310 deg which puts it no the north end of Galveston bay and a 5 hour heading of 320 which would put it very close to the TX/LA border.. Based on this, the NHC center line is looking pretty much dead on to me with the error either way shrinking continously..

Marianne

(Registered User)

Fri Sep 23 2005 06:45 PM

Unusual Outlook?

I've noticed that the NHC 3 Day Outlook and the 5 Day Outlook are almost identical and I haven't seen this before...anyone else?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/023809.shtml?3day
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/145649.shtml?5day

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Sep 23 2005 06:52 PM

Buoy 42001

Looks like buoy 42001 couldn't handle the 40 foot waves yesterday:

Station 42001 went adrift on 09/23/2005 and the last report from its moored position (listed above) was at 0230 GMT.

JYarsh

(Verified CFHC User)

Fri Sep 23 2005 06:55 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

do you think Rita is going through a ERC right now...the eye has completely closed and the band to the north of the storm has exploded in intensity.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Fri Sep 23 2005 06:57 PM

Re: Unusual Outlook?

That is because you did not read the NHC Advisories and NHC Discussions. The advisories indicate the storm will stall for a couple days once inland. This is a big concern because of heavy rainfall totals. The discussions list the forecast track points in lat and lon and if you looked at those you would also see that the points for 72hr, 96hr, and 120hr are identical.

HURRICANELONNY

(Weather Guru)

Fri Sep 23 2005 06:58 PM

Re: developing system

RADAR IS A GOOD DIRECTION USE BUT ONLY WHEN IT IS IN RANGE OF COURSE:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p38cr/si.klix.shtml

HURRICANELONNY

(Weather Guru)

Fri Sep 23 2005 07:02 PM

Re: developing system

I TRIED TO LINK THAT SITE I POSTED BUT IT DIDN'T WORK. FOR THOSE WHO DON'T HAVE IT:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/latest/DS.p19r0/si.klix.shtml

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Sep 23 2005 07:05 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

JYarsh:

I don't believe it is. The last posted recon mission shows only one eyewall. If there were multiple eyewalls, it would read "CO" plus the diameters of the eyewalls.

353
URNT12 KNHC 231805Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/1746Z
B. 27 DEG 45 MIN N
92 DEG 15 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2489 MA
D. NA
E. NA
F. 146 DEG 129 KT
G. 051 DEG 19 NM
H. 930 MB
I. 12 C/ 3064 M
J. 19 C/ 3041 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C20
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 2318A RITA OB 04
MAX FL WIND 129 KT NE QUAD 1741Z
EYE OPEN NE THRU SE

(Meteorologist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 07:10 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

129 knot flight level winds would normally suggest 115 knots (between 130-135 mph) at the surface. I don't know if that report was received in time for the 2pm advisory, or if they are thinking that more of a reduction than normal from FL winds is appropriate in this case.

garrison

(Verified CFHC User)

Fri Sep 23 2005 07:12 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

Over the past couple IR frames it looks to me like Rita is making a comeback, perhaps that is why Max Flt Level winds went up

Tazmanian93

(Weather Master)

Fri Sep 23 2005 07:16 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

Chief Met For Fox in Tampa stating the same thing on the Schnitt Show right now

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Sep 23 2005 07:17 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

It looks like the transmission time was 1805Z, five minutes after the 2 PM advisory.

(Meteorologist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 07:20 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

There is still an opportunity for intensification in the next few hours, as the outflow has remained excellent. There is no sign of the shear that was supposed to impact the storm closer to landfall, but the water vapor does suggest some upper level SW winds approaching the SW quadrant of the storm. The air is pretty dry in the western quadrant, so it will still be a struggle for it to maintain intense convection all the way around the center.

(Meteorologist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 07:43 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

Quote:

There is still an opportunity for intensification in the next few hours, as the outflow has remained excellent. There is no sign of the shear that was supposed to impact the storm closer to landfall, but the water vapor does suggest some upper level SW winds approaching the SW quadrant of the storm. The air is pretty dry in the western quadrant, so it will still be a struggle for it to maintain intense convection all the way around the center.

It's funny, on the 1pm intermediate advisory TPC states "...RITA ON A SLOW WEAKENING TREND..."... Shortly there after, very deep ring of exploding convection begins to wrap around and the eye clears right back out again... It will be interesting to see if for ONCE in this frustrating RITA life, we can finally see the winds and pressure behavior with reasonable relationship to satellite presentation. ...Not that it hasn't, but it was interesting that yesterday afternoon it was as impressive as the night before but the pressure rose and winds backed off... odd

Ryan

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Sep 23 2005 07:46 PM

TS Philippe

..looks to be turning to the west, toward the united states and theres an area just southeast of Philippe that they are watching within the next 36 hours, but TS warning for Bermuda, and the peath is westward?..whats going on

God Bless The Tex'

(Meteorologist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 07:48 PM

Re: TS Philippe

Quote:

..looks to be turning to the west, toward the united states and theres an area just southeast of Philippe that they are watching within the next 36 hours, but TS warning for Bermuda, and the peath is westward?..whats going on

God Bless The Tex'

...I'm sorry, are you asking about Philippe or the subtropical disturbance controling his current motion...?

(Weather Guru)

Fri Sep 23 2005 08:03 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

The west side of Rita continues to build back in... IR Loop...

and dry air is still strong to the south and west... WV loop...

Dr. Neil Frank is holding his line that the steering currents are too weak to turn her north before landfall, but he does account for the "wobble" -- if she's on a wobble to the left at the time of landfall, it's Galveston... if she's on a wobble to the right, it's Jefferson County....

He also echoed what many people have been saying on this board... there are no straight lines in nature...

If hurricanes moved in straight lines, this would be much easier....

Also, IMO, it would seem that wobbles way out in the GOM are much easier to bear than wobbles that occur closer to the coast...

They again interviewed the lady on the east end of Galveston who is worried about looters... she says she's "dug in her heels" and isn't leaving....

There are also at least 9 people left on the far west end of Galveston Island... that part of the island isn't protected by a seawall -- it's very narrow and is right at sea level... there are rows of beachfront homes and 10-60 ft. of beach with nothing more than 5' high dunes, depending on the location... officials took a big truck into the area to encourage the people to leave, and reported that the water is already up to the tires across the main road...

I'm headed off to take a short nap now -- I plan on staying up with this thing through the night and into tomorrow....

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 08:07 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

CNN just mentiones CAT 2 possible landfall, which would be awsome..

Lets pray

Sheer is really hurting it.

(Weather Guru)

Fri Sep 23 2005 08:08 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

There might be only 8 now. They pulled out someone wading around in the surf. He was drunk. He went to jail.

Marianne

(Registered User)

Fri Sep 23 2005 08:11 PM

Re: Unusual Outlook?

Thank you Marge, but perhaps I should have been more clear. I meant historically. I know hurricanes have stalled before, but just haven't had such a graphical realization and was wondering about it...

mr jimmy

(Registered User)

Fri Sep 23 2005 08:23 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

Quote:

There might be only 8 now. They pulled out someone wading around in the surf. He was drunk. He went to jail.

Looking at the Texas A&M Buoy 42046, south of Galveston, it has been showing a pressure increase since 9 am today. Note - this is not the start of an "Aggie" joke. The other Aggie "stick" buoy to the east has only wind speed and direction. The next "full service" device is just to the east of Galveston Bay near the shore and is indicating the expected trends as Rita approaches.

BabyCat - are you the one from down the bayou in Lafourche?

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42046

(Meteorologist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 08:24 PM

Re: Unusual Outlook?

The eye of Rita is starting to come into range of the short-range displays. The long-range shows a relatively dry area in the SE quadrant of the storm, where the eyewall has been reported to be open. There is an outer band showing up better than anything in that quadrant of the storm... I'm not sure of that is something that is part of an outer eyewall or just a regular outer band that is showing up better than anything in the dry area nearby.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 08:37 PM

Re: Unusual Outlook?

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/lch_NTP_lp.shtml

you can already see the path of flooding about to occur by this "storm total" loop off of the lake charles radar. this loop is really eerie if you ask me.

if you ask me, rita looks much more impressive on radar than katrina did at this point.

oil trader

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Sep 23 2005 08:42 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

On Wednesday when Rita got so fast CAT 5 from TS in less than two days, I asked what could happen to improve the situation because it seemed like an action movie turning worse and worse every hour. Since then Rita has weakened very rapidly as well, and biggest cities have left west of the forecast eye. That is wonderful.

What scares me at this moment is how confidence everybody is going trough this storm right now. You can feel it on television, in market behavior, and especially in this forum less than 12 hours before landfall (few posts, no mods appearances, etc.). On Wednesday we were up to the end of the world and today the only problem is people jammed in Texas roads. Let’s pray everything keep going in this way. Nevertheless this bipolar conduct makes me a little nervous about the end.

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Sep 23 2005 08:50 PM

Re: Buoy 42001

Quote:

Looks like buoy 42001 couldn't handle the 40 foot waves yesterday:

Station 42001 went adrift on 09/23/2005 and the last report from its moored position (listed above) was at 0230 GMT.

The buoy that we'd be getting readings off of right now was busted loose from Katrina. Apparently the meterological buoys in the GOM are only designed for CAT3's. The way things are going I think there is going to be a universal change in the way everyone around the GOM prepares for hurricanes. Levee's, houses, buoys, oil platforms, EVERYTHING is going to have to be redesigned.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 08:54 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

Oil Trader, I wouldnt say people are relaxing. They still know this is serious.

More Good News, Looks like NO is out of the heavy rain bands.

Every hour the storm is moving more away from NO.

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Sep 23 2005 08:54 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

i HOPE THERE IS NO STRENGTHENING. aS IT LOOKS NOW, RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT IS GOING TO DO A NUMBER ON LAKE CHARLES AND EVEN LAFAYETTE.

recmod

(Weather Guru)

Fri Sep 23 2005 08:59 PM

Rita's Intensity

Well, it looks as if the downgrade to a Cat 3 may have been premature. No sooner did they downgrade when recon found 129kt winds which would correlate to 135 at the surface. The central pressure has actually dropped a tad and the satellite presentation has DRAMATICALLY improved in the past 3 hours. The earlier dry-air intrusion observed has since been mixed out and the convection has blossomed with a much larger CDO with colder cloud tops.

Even the 5pm discussion hints at the fact that Rita may be intensifying. They stated that objective T-Numbers have started to come up, indicating winds are stronger than the quoted 125mph in the latest advisory. As usual, the NHC is taking the conservative road, stating that they are waiting for a trend before officially declaring Rita as a stronger hurricane.

I think they are trying to avoid the negative emotional impact of declaring Rita as once again attaining Cat 4 status unless absolutely necessary.

--Lou

zacros

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 09:06 PM

Re: Rita's Intensity

I agree. The IR and water vapor satellite presentation has improved of late. It even looks as though Rita fought off the dry air that was trying to rotate in from the northwest earlier. I would not be surprised to see Rita inch back up to a Cat IV before landfall. All in the path of the hurricane will be in my families thoughts and prayers.

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Sep 23 2005 09:19 PM

Latest Recon

Here's the latest posted recon info:

610
URNT12 KNHC 232100Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/2031Z
B. 28 DEG 09 MIN N
92 DEG 37 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2493 MA
D. NA
E. NA
F. 289 DEG 91 KT
G. 197 DEG 15 NM
H. 931 MB
I. 14 C/ 3055 M
J. 20 C/ 3056 M
K. 15 C/ NA
L. OPEN SOUTH
M. C25
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 2318A RITA OB 20
MAX FL WIND 124 KT NE QUAD 2037Z
EYE OPEN E THRU W

(Meteorologist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 09:21 PM

Re: Rita's Intensity

Rita is just struggling to hold its own at the moment. Latest pressure is up slightly to 931mb. The eyewall appears to be almost half open. Unless it can close off the eyewall, it will struggle to maintain its current intensity. FL winds still indicate 110-115 knots at the surface, but the dropsondes I have seen do not support that intensity.

There is still a tremendous amount of outflow, but the outflow pattern is no longer as symmetric as it was... it is expanding rapidly to the north while becoming slightly restricted to the SW. It looks like upper-level SW winds are going to be impinging on the the system soon. The window for strengthening may be about over. The strong outflow still would support some intensification, but there needs to be an increase in organization of the eyewall for that to occur. Time is running out for that.

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Sep 23 2005 09:33 PM

Re: Rita's Intensity

Rita looks alot like Dennis did just before landfall, and the rapid weakening that took place.

(Meteorologist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 09:49 PM

Re: Rita's Intensity

Very intense burst of convection on the NW eyewall in the last few IR frames, but radar indicates that the eyewall is still having difficulty closing off on the south side.

The entire eye is now within range of the short-term Lake Charles NEXRAD. Any significant changes from here on out (both track and intensity) should be apparent from the radar presentation.

GuppieGrouper

(Weather Master)

Fri Sep 23 2005 10:08 PM

Re: Rita's Intensity

Yes but for novices who are reading to find out if aunt matilda or uncle travis are in danger, we must point out that the effects of the storm have been generated already and that even if the storm weakens, 937 mb of pressure are very, very, low and it would take the storm sitting out there winding down for another day or so to reduce the danger to the population at this point. Just know how lost I was when we first started reading the board and would wonder if this was better or worse about the storm. Television goes a long way toward creating a doubting public with exaggerated coverage of other events. Just including that this weakening storm does not mean it is going to be nothing to worry about.

teal61

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 10:13 PM

18z GFS and NAM....

Both the GFS:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/index_ten_m_loop.shtml

and the NAM:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/index_slp_m_loop.shtml

Forecast continued NW movement for about 6 hours and the turn west for about another six hours along 29 north then back to the north over or just west of Galveston.

Now I realize that the NAM is not always the best model for tropical systems but the agreement is remarkable.

(Meteorologist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 10:45 PM

Re: 18z GFS and NAM....

The 18Z MM5 (also not the best for hurricanes) also shows a NW, then W, then NW again motion before landfall. I'm not sure what the models are picking up on, but we'll see how it plays out from here. If nothing else, that suggests the storm might slow down some as the steering currents become slightly less defined. It seems to be cruising along pretty quickly at the moment.

cjzydeco

(Weather Guru)

Fri Sep 23 2005 10:49 PM

Specail Advisory

On NBC, they just said the NHC is coming out with a special advisory. Isn't the next one at 8 pm???

Never Mind. Just answered my own question.

Quote:

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 6 PM CDT AND 8 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.

(Meteorologist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 11:04 PM

Re: 18z GFS and NAM....

As if on cue, the eye has made an apparent wobble to the west on the radar loop in the last few frames (actually looks like something just rudely shoved it to the west). Some of that may be an artifact of how the half eyewall is wrapping around the center of circulation.

(Weather Guru)

Fri Sep 23 2005 11:06 PM

pressure readings

Does anyone online now have the software to get the pressure readings along the coast...say, Galveston to Morgan City?

teal61

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 11:09 PM

Re: 18z GFS and NAM....

Quote:

As if on cue, the eye has made an apparent wobble to the west on the radar loop in the last few frames (actually looks like something just rudely shoved it to the west). Some of that may be an artifact of how the half eyewall is wrapping around the center of circulation.

I was just noticing that, it will be interesting to seee what happens. BTW JB also made a comment about that in his afternoon update.

What version of the MM5 was that. Do you have a link ?

MikeC

(Admin)

Fri Sep 23 2005 11:12 PM

Re: 18z GFS and NAM....

I've begun long term recording of coastal radar of Rita you can see that here It will remain until Rita is out of range.

Long term Level 3 radar recording courtesy HCW[/url] too.

oil trader

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Sep 23 2005 11:18 PM

Re: 18z GFS and NAM....

I supposed that this site would be on fire by this time. Is Rita no event?

Dougyd

(Verified CFHC User)

Fri Sep 23 2005 11:19 PM

Re: 18z GFS and NAM....

It may be my poor eyesight, but it seems to me that the map overlays are different between the floaters and the radars.

I am wondering if anyone else sees this. I also think this may be one of the reasons for the recent controversy.

Just a thought.

Doug

(Weather Guru)

Fri Sep 23 2005 11:22 PM

Re: 18z GFS and NAM....

They are sleeping. They will be up all night is my guess.

(Meteorologist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 11:24 PM

Re: 18z GFS and NAM....

The MM5 version I am looking at is not available on the web to my knowledge (I realize there is more than one MM5 floating around... I should be more specific). It is capable of resolving the system pretty well (initalizes the system at around 960mb), but the tracks have been off some. I mention it only because it shows a similar westward jog to the 18Z GFS. I'm interested to see what the 18Z GFDL will show with the track.

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Sep 23 2005 11:30 PM

Re: 18z GFS and NAM....

i know there is rita and all but us in fl are watching rita too much. should we start watching our backside on the east? it looks like phillipe turned around and then more are coming after that.

collegemom

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 11:37 PM

Re: 18z GFS and NAM....

Well since you aren't sleeping I was wondering if we could find someone AWAKE to venture forth on the weather conditions to the NE. After all I'm an Arkie and the word tornado rings a bell. :?:

(Moderator)

Fri Sep 23 2005 11:39 PM

Re: 18z GFS and NAM....

Quote:

i know there is rita and all but us in fl are watching rita too much. should we start watching our backside on the east? it looks like phillipe turned around and then more are coming after that.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005

PHILIPPE IS A VERY SMALL SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS...AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS
NO LONGER SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE SYSTEM IS
DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION ON THIS ADVISORY. PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA WITHIN 12-24
HOURS...AND THIS COULD OCCUR EVEN SOONER.

Please stay on topic- Rita, until landfall-Thanks~danielw

UKCloudgazer

(Verified CFHC User)

Fri Sep 23 2005 11:44 PM

Re: 18z GFS and NAM....

Quote:

I supposed that this site would be on fire by this time. Is Rita no event?

I've been mooching around for hours. Been looking at the Sats, learning how to read the recons properly etc as no new posts to read. (Don't normally add as I am still learning - been lurking a couple of months.) I'll be up early to catch up - was waiting for the 6pm but don't think I can last out till the 8pm.

(Meteorologist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 11:47 PM

Re: 18z GFS and NAM....

No sign of any significant westward jog in the 18Z GFDL:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=WBCCHGQLM

The westward movement of the eye seems to have stopped in the last half hour... of course, it hasn't really moved in any other direction either in that time. Satellite indicates a slow NW movement of the overall cloud pattern over the last hour or so.

(Meteorologist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 11:49 PM

Re: 18z GFS and NAM....

Latest recon has the pressure back to 930mb, with max flight-level winds of 121 knots. There was a dropsonde a couple of hours ago that measured 110 knots at the surface, so the current official intensity still seems to be accurate.

(Meteorologist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 11:57 PM

Re: 18z GFS and NAM....

Largest pressure falls last hour (as of 6 CDT) were in Beaumont, TX (1.6 mb), with Galveston at 1.1 mb and Lake Charles at 1.0 mb.

Random Chaos

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Sep 24 2005 12:00 AM

Re: 18z GFS and NAM....

Latest recon - I'm confused. Is that an elliptical eyewall that is normally in the form of Deg/Max/Min or is that three eyewalls (normally formed Radius-Radius-Radius)?

655
URNT12 KNHC 232322Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/2303Z
B. 28 DEG 28 MIN N
92 DEG 54 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2492 MA
D. NA
E. NA
F. 151 DEG 121 KT
G. 061 DEG 17 NM
H. 930 MB
I. 12 C/ 3050 M
J. 20 C/ 3061 M
K. 15 C/ NA
L. OPEN E-SW
M. E 080-30-20
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 2318A RITA OB 31
MAX FL WIND 121 KT NE QUAD 2258Z
MAX FLT LVL TEMP 060/10 NM FROM CNTR

(Moderator)

Sat Sep 24 2005 12:06 AM

Hypothetical Landfall Location

Using the last two Vortex messages.
And assuming that there is No deviation from the present heading.

Rita should cross the shoreline near Star Lake and Clam Lake,TX.
This point is roughly half way between Sabine Pass,TX and High Island,Tx on Highway 87.
If this hypothetical track were to continue.
Rita would pass East of Winnie,TX and cross Interstate 10 East of Exit 833.
This is in the Hamshire, TX area and about 15 miles West of Beaumont, TX.

All of the above assumes no changes in Rita's heading prior to Landfall.
These points are for the center of the storm. The radius of Hurricane Force Winds is much larger and extend outward up to 75 miles.

Alwasys In The Wrong Place At The Right Time

(Meteorologist)

Sat Sep 24 2005 12:07 AM

Re: 18z GFS and NAM....

I assume that report was for an elliptical eyewall, which is 20 miles wide on the minor axis and 30 miles wide on the major axis. That might account for some erratic motion.

Latest pressure falls as of 7 CDT: Lake Charles 2.8 mb, Beaumont 2.1 mb, Galveston 0.9 mb.

Rita looks pretty ill on the last IR image at 2345Z. The eyewall seems to be making a slight comback on radar, though.

(Registered User)

Sat Sep 24 2005 12:24 AM

Re: 18z GFS and NAM.... *DELETED*

Post deleted by Storm Cooper

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Sep 24 2005 12:27 AM

Re: 18z GFS and NAM....

I dont know where you are getting strengthning at?

Pressure is up on every advsiory, Eye Wall has been ragged, if anything its weakening.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Sep 24 2005 12:30 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

Lake Charles, LA
Houston, TX
Lake Charles NEXRAD
Houston NEXRAD

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Sep 24 2005 12:31 AM

Re: 18z GFS and NAM....

Just to note: CNN staellite showed almost a complete eyewall callapsed on there colored satellite image.

Anyone else see that?

oil trader

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Sep 24 2005 12:31 AM

Re: Hypothetical Landfall Location

Quote:

Rita should cross the shoreline near Star Lake and Clam Lake,TX.
This point is roughly half way between Sabine Pass,TX and High Island,Tx on Highway 87.
If this hypothetical track were to continue.
Rita would pass East of Winnie,TX and cross Interstate 10 East of Exit 833.
This is in the Hamshire, TX area and about 15 miles West of Beaumont, TX.

Do you have please a good map link to see that point?

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Sep 24 2005 12:33 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

LC NEXRAD just showed a cell with winds of 118kts.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Sep 24 2005 12:36 AM

Re: Hypothetical Landfall Location

Quote:

Quote:

Rita should cross the shoreline near Star Lake and Clam Lake,TX.
This point is roughly half way between Sabine Pass,TX and High Island,Tx on Highway 87.
If this hypothetical track were to continue.
Rita would pass East of Winnie,TX and cross Interstate 10 East of Exit 833.
This is in the Hamshire, TX area and about 15 miles West of Beaumont, TX.

Do you have please a good map link to see that point?

Try this, may need to adjust

http://maps.google.com/maps?ll=29.384568,-94.347839&spn=1.273175,2.593597&hl=en

UKCloudgazer

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Sep 24 2005 12:39 AM

Re: 18z GFS and NAM....

just came back - looking at 4 dif sats - is it me or has the eye disappeared? if so, how will that affect things?

jmk818

(Registered User)

Sat Sep 24 2005 12:42 AM

Re: Hypothetical Landfall Location

Long time reader, first time poster. If she stayed strong enough, and the land was flat 20 miles inland, would the water pulled ashore be enough to turn off weakening for that 20 miles?

(Moderator)

Sat Sep 24 2005 12:46 AM

Re: Hypothetical Landfall Location

Quote:

Do you have please a good map link to see that point?

I am using software here at work. The point I used was 29.7N/ 94.1W over the beach.

(Moderator)

Sat Sep 24 2005 12:46 AM

BALETED

*SNIP* (with apologies)

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Sep 24 2005 12:51 AM

Re: Hypothetical Landfall Location

hourly updates from the region.
Lakes Charles gusting to 54mph
link

tides already 3-4ft+ above normal
link

n1unicorn

(Registered User)

Sat Sep 24 2005 12:56 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

I might as well add my 2 cents worth. I haven't read too many comments yet, but am I the only one that saw Rita coming in near the La/Tx border over 36 hrs go? I knew the high was not going to move as rapidly as predicted. Were they just wishful thinking?

Ed Dunham

(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))

Sat Sep 24 2005 12:59 AM

Administrative Reminders

It is at times like these as a system approaches the coast that the site can get quite busy. There are ways that you can help to prevent bandwidth overload and administrative actions - simply follow the site rules.

There have been way too many one-line posts and this creates a bandwidth problem. CFHC is a Forum-oriented site; it is not a chat room. One line posts seldom offer any useful information, so please make an effort to limit them. A radar cell top at 17K is not useful info - most hurricanes have cell tops at or above 50kft. Two or three frames of storm movement mean nothing - hurricanes wobble along their track. Hurricanes go through eyewall replacement cycles, so one eyewall weakens and a new one forms - perfectly normal.

Put your post in the proper Forum. If you do not, we will move it if we have time, or delete it if we do not have time. If you ask a question about the storm, there is a Forum for that. If you have a storm report, there is a Forum for that. Please use them.

Personal attacks are simply not tolerated, and since the site is getting busy and emotions are getting out of hand, I'm implementing a 'zero tolerance' approach. If you attack someone else, even just once, you'll be placed on probation for 24 hours. You can certainly question the rationale behind someone else's post, but you cannot belittle or otherwise attack the poster.

If you have a question or comment for a particular individual, please use the PM capability rather than a post.

Thanks for your help.
ED

(Weather Guru)

Sat Sep 24 2005 01:00 AM

Re: Hypothetical Landfall Location

Your question is probably best answered by one of our resident mets...

with that said, my understanding is that, when a hurricane passes over land, elevation is certainly a factor (such as an island with high mountains), but it's really the lack of warm water feeding the system that is the more significant cause of weakening.

Jonathan Franklin

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Sep 24 2005 01:04 AM

Re: Hypothetical Landfall Location... - gueswork

Anyone getting any lead on the storm skirting westward? Reports we are getting are suggesting that the storm is being pushed West at the last moment. One weather guy has it going west of port arthur. Any expert out there picking up something along these lines? Looks bad for Port Arthur.

LisaMaria65

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Sep 24 2005 01:04 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

Quote:

I might as well add my 2 cents worth. I haven't read too many comments yet, but am I the only one that saw Rita coming in near the La/Tx border over 36 hrs go? I knew the high was not going to move as rapidly as predicted. Were they just wishful thinking?

From the very beginning, I called it coming in around Cameron, La.

Right now, i'm getting at least 60 mph sustaned winds with gusts probably upwards of about 80.
The house across the street from me has stuff blowing off it...looks like pieces of wood or siding.

The weather here will go downhill in about 3 hours or so. I'm actually quite surprised that we still have power here at my house. It probably won't be much longer!

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Sep 24 2005 01:11 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

And you're sitting there instead of someplace like Dallas, why?

from the last GOES floater loop, it looks like the eye has almost completely disappeared...is this because it's starting to get starved for energy or something else?

tashina

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Sep 24 2005 01:12 AM

Max Mayfield

Max Mayfield was just on Larry King....says this hurricane is most akin to Audrey in 1957 - seemed to be mostly talking about the storm surge.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/history.shtml#audrey

(Moderator)

Sat Sep 24 2005 01:12 AM

Re: Hypothetical Landfall Location

Quote:

Long time reader, first time poster. If she stayed strong enough, and the land was flat 20 miles inland, would the water pulled ashore be enough to turn off weakening for that 20 miles?

Based on some computer generated Storm Surge Maps. I don't think it will make any difference in the Storm Surge.

In theory the water pulled ahore should be warm water and that normally sustains Hurricanes.
I'll try to pull up the last SHIPS model and check.

If You live in SE TX and SW LA. Specifically Cameron Parish,LA- Jefferson County,TX; and Orange County, TX. Near a river, bayou or low lying area that collect or ponds water.
If you can safely get out at this time...Please Do So NOW.

See the following River Flood Warning from LCH NWS Office.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/LCH/FLWLCH

...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DUE TO STORM SURGE ON THE
CALCASIEU RIVER NEAR LAKE CHARLES, ON THE NECHES RIVER NEAR
BEAUMONT AND ON THE SABINE RIVER NEAR ORANGE...

(Meteorologist)

Sat Sep 24 2005 01:14 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

Rita continues to maintain a strong northern eyewall, but is unable to close it. Must be something to do with the inner core dynamics, since you can almost see convective elements on radar disappearing in the southern half of the storm and re-emerging in the northern half.

Pressure falls the last hour: Lake Charles 2.1 mb (down to 991.4 mb), Beaumont 2.0 mb (down to 992.5 mb), Galveston 1.5 mb (down to 995.4 mb).

Some of the 18Z models suggested a more westward turn, which is probably why some of the media have picked up on that. There have been some wobbles, but no signicant deviation from the track evdient on radar so far.

Regarding the hypothetical landfall scenario, that is an interesting question, but it is highly unlikely that any storm surge which was brought inland would help to temporarily keep the storm from weakening after landfall. There would likely still be too much surrounding terrain that is not inundated.

robynsmom

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Sep 24 2005 01:15 AM

Re: 18z GFS and NAM....

Quote:

Just to note: CNN staellite showed almost a complete eyewall callapsed on there colored satellite image.

Anyone else see that?

What does that indicate? Is that good or bad?

(Weather Guru)

Sat Sep 24 2005 01:23 AM

Re: 18z GFS and NAM....

I'm seeing it to... my suspicions are either 1) the predicted shear from the SW, 2) a bit of dry air intrusion, 3) interaction with land, 4) SST issues (slightly cooler, shallow water, upwelling, etc.), but more likely a combo of all these elements...

jlauderdal

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Sep 24 2005 01:25 AM

Re: Hypothetical Landfall Location... - gueswork

Joe Bastardi on fox about 10 minutes ago mentioned that as a possibility but hey it is always a possibilty with a wobble.

teal61

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Sep 24 2005 01:26 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

Quote:

Rita continues to maintain a strong northern eyewall, but is unable to close it. Must be something to do with the inner core dynamics, since you can almost see convective elements on radar disappearing in the southern half of the storm and re-emerging in the northern half.

Pressure falls the last hour: Lake Charles 2.1 mb (down to 991.4 mb), Beaumont 2.0 mb (down to 992.5 mb), Galveston 1.5 mb (down to 995.4 mb).

Some of the 18Z models suggested a more westward turn, which is probably why some of the media have picked up on that. There have been some wobbles, but no signicant deviation from the track evdient on radar so far.

Regarding the hypothetical landfall scenario, that is an interesting question, but it is highly unlikely that any storm surge which was brought inland would help to temporarily keep the storm from weakening after landfall. There would likely still be too much surrounding terrain that is not inundated.

Even the 23z RUC had a slow movement to the west begining soon. I don't know a lot about that model but thats at least three that I've seen that seem to slow it and turn to the west.

A couple of other observations: The 0045z ir show a ring of very cold cloud tops almost completely around the center, and the latest radar loop from Houston seems to show the center elongated SE-NW.

(Weather Master)

Sat Sep 24 2005 01:33 AM

Re: 18z GFS and NAM....

Quote:

Quote:

Just to note: CNN staellite showed almost a complete eyewall callapsed on there colored satellite image.

Anyone else see that?

What does that indicate? Is that good or bad?

Well im glad to see she is still losing power and hopefully a cat 2 at landfall.The Radar at this moment is showing a NW movement yet and as stated a wobble either way at landfall is Poss.

I think the 11pm will tell us more and hopefully she drops more winds.

Last loop of a hr on radar still show NW shall see what she does either way at landfall.She could jog either way there is no guarantee about anything other then she will hit land somewhere.

patrickbyers

(Registered User)

Sat Sep 24 2005 01:33 AM

Re: 18z GFS and NAM....

It appeared to be an eyewall colapse and a quick forward movement of the low pressure circulation that moved quickly towards the coast line.

jlauderdal

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Sep 24 2005 01:36 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Approaches Texas

Quote:

Quote:

Rita continues to maintain a strong northern eyewall, but is unable to close it. Must be something to do with the inner core dynamics, since you can almost see convective elements on radar disappearing in the southern half of the storm and re-emerging in the northern half.

Pressure falls the last hour: Lake Charles 2.1 mb (down to 991.4 mb), Beaumont 2.0 mb (down to 992.5 mb), Galveston 1.5 mb (down to 995.4 mb).

Some of the 18Z models suggested a more westward turn, which is probably why some of the media have picked up on that. There have been some wobbles, but no signicant deviation from the track evdient on radar so far.

Regarding the hypothetical landfall scenario, that is an interesting question, but it is highly unlikely that any storm surge which was brought inland would help to temporarily keep the storm from weakening after landfall. There would likely still be too much surrounding terrain that is not inundated.

Even the 23z RUC had a slow movement to the west begining soon. I don't know a lot about that model but thats at least three that I've seen that seem to slow it and turn to the west.

A couple of other observations: The 0045z ir show a ring of very cold cloud tops almost completely around the center, and the latest radar loop from Houston seems to show the center elongated SE-NW.

Yeah, I just looped the RUC and this is what Bastardi was talking about. We shall see if it verifies.

(Moderator)

Sat Sep 24 2005 01:41 AM

Hurricane Local Statement- 8:30 PM CDT

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
830 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005 (edited~danielw)

..STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...MAXIMUM STORM SURGES OF 15 TO 20 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THIS WILL BRING GULF WATERS AS FAR NORTH AS THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR FROM BEAUMONT TEXAS TO LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA. THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ORANGE TEXAS AND SULPHUR LOUISIANA. THIS STORM SURGE WILL ALSO LIKELY COME OVER THE TOP OF THE SEA WALL AROUND PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

EVEN THOUGH THE HURRICANE WILL BE INLAND...HIGH STORM SURGE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

VERMILION PARISH...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL FLOOD LAND AROUND PECAN ISLAND AND INTRACOASTAL CITY. SECTIONS OF DELCAMBRE WILL BE UNDER WATER.

IBERIA AND ST. MARY PARISHES...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 6 AND 10 FEET TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL FLOOD SECTIONS OF CYPREMORT POINT AND BURNS POINT...AND LOW-LYING AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 FROM FRANKLIN TO MORGAN CITY.

...CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THE EXTREME WINDS. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE DOWNED...WITH WIDESPREAD AND EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES LIKELY. SOME STRUCTURES WILL ALSO FAIL...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/LCH/HLSLCH

patrickbyers

(Registered User)

Sat Sep 24 2005 01:53 AM

Re: 18z GFS and NAM....

You are absolutely right. This is a regular occurance of gulf coast hurricanes. They tend to sitr up the water. As they approach the coast line the waters tend to become cooler. Also there was dry air coming from the south west of the circulation. I have seen this before. The dry air from the south west causes the eye wall to weken and possibly elongate.

(Moderator)

Sat Sep 24 2005 01:53 AM

Water Temps and Wind Speeds-LCH NWS

OTHER MARINE REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES, LA 840 PM CDT FRI SEP 24 2005
MARINE OBSERVATIONS AT 8 PM,
AT HEBERT'S MARINA ON BIG LAKE, THE AIR TEMPERATURE WAS 78 DEGREES, WITH NORTH WIND AT 44 KNOTS.

AT CALCASIEU PASS AT CAMERON JETTY, THE TIDE LEVEL IS 4.66 FEET WHICH IS 2.74 FEET ABOVE TIDE TABLE LEVELS. THE WIND IS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 54 KNOTS. THE AIR TEMPERATURE IS 76 DEGREES.
THE WATER TEMPERATURE IS 84 DEGREES.

AT SABINE PASS COAST GUARD STATION, THE TIDE LEVEL IS 2.65 FEET WHICH IS 1.24 FEET ABOVE TIDE TABLE LEVELS, THE AIR TEMPERATURE IS MISSING AND THE WATER TEMPERATURE IS MISSING.

Frank P

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sat Sep 24 2005 01:56 AM

Re: Hurricane Local Statement- 8:30 PM CDT

I think the fixation with the winds of this hurricane by some posters, especially a former Cat 5 hurricane that has weakened, is amiss and missing the really big picture of the tremendous event that is going to transpire as this system goes inland... regardless of what her winds are at land fall, this storm is going to do tremendous damage from her surge... Ivan taught us that lesson last year as its surge devastated the Panhandle and Katrina validated that lesson again this year destroying the entire MS gulf coast... I expect we'll will get a very similar level of surge destruction along the LA/TX coasts for miles, especially to the areas east of the center .... my heart go out to all the good people of Texas and Louisiana that will be dealing with this storm...

(Moderator)

Sat Sep 24 2005 02:07 AM

NWS Update-Galveston,TX Office

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
901 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005

UPDATE ALL EYES STILL ON RITA AS SHE MAKES HER WAY TO THE COAST.
IT APPEARS THAT THE MOUTH OF THE SABINE RIVER OR PERHAPS 10 TO 15 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE RIVER LOOKS TO BE THE LANDFALL POINT.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Sep 24 2005 02:16 AM

Re: Hurricane Local Statement- 8:30 PM CDT

anyone have links to near real time winds speed reports close to the coastline?
The highest ones I'm seeing are Lake Charles Airport.

(Moderator)

Sat Sep 24 2005 02:21 AM

Rita Postion Update

HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
9 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005

AT 9 PM CDT...0200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.1 WEST...OR ABOUT 70 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SABINE PASS ALONG THE COAST AT THE BORDER BETWEEN TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA.

FORECASTER KNABB

(Meteorologist)

Sat Sep 24 2005 02:24 AM

Re: NWS Update-Galveston,TX Office

Pressure falls last hour: Beaumont 2.4 mb (to 990.1 mb), Lake Charles 1.6 mb (989.8 mb). No report from Galveston available yet. Lake Charles reported 51 mph sustained winds with 71 mph gusts about an hour ago.

Nothing seems to have changed much intensity-wise in the last hour. The satellite presentation has been erratic... it looks better now than it did for awhile, with some very cold convection on the north side of the eye. The eyewall is still open to the south within a larger clear area in that area of the storm. The center continues to wobble northwestward and conditions are going to get progressively worse along the coast from here on out.

Lsr1166

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Sep 24 2005 02:26 AM

Re: Hurricane Local Statement- 8:30 PM CDT

I was just flipping from the weather channel to fox, and fox is saying that the outer edge of the eye wall will be making land fall in about 2 hours, but the weather channel is saying it will be about 6-7 hours. How can they be seeing such different things?

Ed Dunham

(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))

Sat Sep 24 2005 02:31 AM

Re: Hurricane Local Statement- 8:30 PM CDT

The outer edge of the eyewall is indeed getting close to the coast, however, the center of the eye itself will take about 6 or 7 hours to reach the coast. I've placed a short update on the Main Page for those that may be interested.
ED

Random Chaos

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Sep 24 2005 02:31 AM

Re: Hurricane Local Statement- 8:30 PM CDT

Radar is clearly showing a very open eye, but IR is showing deep convection fully wraping the core now, with some very cold cloudtops embedded. This thing's trying to reestablish it's core, but I think it's out of time. Too near the coast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

--RC

Note: thread's not updating it's page numbers correctly anymore - mods might need to start a new one

OrlandoDan

(Weather Master)

Sat Sep 24 2005 02:36 AM

Re: Hurricane Local Statement- 8:30 PM CDT

What in the world going on with this storm. Deep conection has formed but what has happened to the eye?

hawg92

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Sep 24 2005 02:36 AM

Size of wind field

The eye of the hurricane is a good 160-170 miles from my location as the crow flies. However we are still experiencing some serious wind gusts and rain squalls over here. I thought the storm's wind field would be reduced as it weakened, approaching land fall, but that does not appear to be the case. Amazing!

OrlandoDan

(Weather Master)

Sat Sep 24 2005 02:38 AM

Re: Hurricane Local Statement- 8:30 PM CDT

I would not place a lot of faith on radar in detecting the nature of the eye. Radar sometimes experiences difficulties in seeing the far side of the eye in storms like these.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Sep 24 2005 02:41 AM

Re: Hurricane Local Statement- 8:30 PM CDT

to LisaMarie65 -- SW parts of Lafayette, close to water such as the Vermillion River, may have some flooding even though we are talking about 30 mi inland; The Pearl River flooded well inland of Bay St Louis, affecting towns and areas 10 mi upriver in MS with a surge that completely submerged the first floor of homes, trapping people in attics. The topography of southern LA coast is such that the surge could have effects pretty far inland. Even at this late hour, is there any safe evacuation route/destination that you would consider leaving for, right now? If evac is not possible now, and if you are in a vulnerable area, please take some precautions for possible flooding.

Flooding from storm surge is especially going to be a concern for any areas that are closer to bays and inlets such as from Crowley westward, even if they pretty far north from the coast.

to jmk818 -- actually a large portion of the central "finger" of Plaquemines Parish -- that is, of just the part of that parish that juts out into the Gulf -- was almost certainly completely underwater during a great deal of the time Katrina passed over. I believe waves were able to travel without obstruction across the inundated marsh and bayou, to batter the flooded towns bordering the MS River, in addition to the storm surge.

Here is a NOAA image of the type of havoc that storm surge and possibly waves on top of the surge did in one of these towns:

http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24729709.jpg

Zoom in to see the detailed image by holding your cursor over the image, and then clicking on the box with arrows that appears in the lower RH corner.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Sep 24 2005 02:41 AM

Re: Hurricane Local Statement- 8:30 PM CDT

time for some comic tension relief:

http://americablog.blogspot.com/2005/09/is-that-hurricane-in-your-pocket.html

Cnn is saying that they're expecting up to 24 inches of rain in some areas inland in texas. That coupled with storm surge that MIGHT make it up the rivers by up to 20 miles. Wow, this is the sort of stuff that reversed the flow of the mississippi so many years ago huh?

I cannot beleive these morons on CNN who sit there in 125mph winds reporting what could be their own deaths if a piece of debris comes by and hits them. It reminds me of the main weather guy talking on his cellphone in LA during the movie, "The Day After Tomorrow" when the house runs him over. It makes me so mad that these guys might encourage people to stay during the next hurricane. If i'm Joe Q Public and i see someone STANDING in the middle of a vortex, i might say "hell, he can stand up in it, I might as well sit in my house instead of leaving next time".

(Weather Master)

Sat Sep 24 2005 02:52 AM

Re: Hurricane Local Statement- 8:30 PM CDT

Hurricane Rita Advisory Number 26

Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on September 23, 2005

...Eye of major Hurricane Rita just a few hours from landfall near
the Texas/Louisiana border...
...Strong winds and heavy rains battering southern Louisiana and
southeastern Texas...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Sargent Texas to Morgan
City Louisiana. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane
conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should have
already been completed.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the southeastern
coast of Louisiana east of Morgan City to the mouth of the Pearl
River... including metropolitan New Orleans and Lake
Pontchartrain... and from south of Sargent Texas to Port Aransas
Texas. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Rita was located near
latitude 29.1 north... longitude 93.2 west or about 55 miles... 90
km... southeast of Sabine Pass along the Gulf Coast at the
Texas/Louisiana border.

Rita is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph... 19 km/hr. This
general motion is expected to continue until landfall. A gradual
turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph...195 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Rita is a dangerous category three hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson scale. Little change in strength is expected prior
to landfall. Gradual weakening is expected after Rita moves
inland.

(Moderator)

Sat Sep 24 2005 02:54 AM

Radar

While I am seeing the "open eye" like everyone else. I used a site that has 4 levels of tilt on the Base Reflectivity.
The 3rd level up. indicated a 'bat wing' open area on the southern half of the Eye. Looping this level. The very heavy echoes are still rotating around the northern side of the eye.
Something that I think couldn't happen if the eye was open.
I'm wondering if the heavy rain on the northern Eye Wall is causing the radar to attenuate the echoes on the southern eyewall.
In other words...it's raining so hard that the radar can't see through it.
Just my thoughts...on the 'open eye' signature.
( I haven't looked at any satellite pics...so I'm blind in that respect)

patrickbyers

(Registered User)

Sat Sep 24 2005 02:55 AM

Re: Hurricane Local Statement- 8:30 PM CDT

It has elongated because of the dry air from the south west and the cooler water as it aproaches the cost line. This storm will still maintain sustained wind of at least 120 miles per hour with gusts to 140.

I don't call 84 degrees being cooler water~danielw

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Sep 24 2005 02:57 AM

Re: Hurricane Local Statement- 8:30 PM CDT

Quote:

Radar is clearly showing a very open eye, but IR is showing deep convection fully wraping the core now, with some very cold cloudtops embedded. This thing's trying to reestablish it's core

I know! Especially evident on the Dvorak IR. It really is amazing...but maybe not so surprising considering the pressure is still solidly in the Cat 4 range, never left it, and the temp diff at the eyewall is very strong, and outflow is still very strong.

From the 11pm NHC discussion:

"The eyewall remains intact and intense... especially in the northern semicircle... with a radius of maximum winds of about 20 N mi... surrounded by dense and well-developed spiral banding. Velocities from the radar suggest that the surface winds have not fallen off much "

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Sep 24 2005 02:58 AM

Re: Radar

Daniel, good call about the radar not seeing....i thought the same thing as the doppler adn satellite weren't corresponding.

Satellite Link

although, here's the Houston radar showing something similar.....

Houston

(Moderator)

Sat Sep 24 2005 03:09 AM

New Thread

Mike has posted a new thread
Please post there. Thanks

(Meteorologist)

Sat Sep 24 2005 03:18 AM

Re: Radar

Pressure falls the last hour: Beaumont 1.8 mb (to 988.3 mb), Lake Charles 0.3 mb (to 989.5 mb).

Three radars (Houston, Lake Charles, New Orleans) all indicate that the eye is open to the south, which is consistent with what the last plane was reporting (will there be another recon flight?... they are running out of time if there is). The feature I had been following as the partial eyewall seems to have accelerated to the WNW and merged with another rainband. I'm not exactly sure where I would put the center of circulation based on the radar at the moment. Regardless, the intense convective bands to the north of the system will be capable of producing very strong winds for anyone in their path. The stronger the convection, the more you get the higher winds aloft mixed down to the surface.

jmk818

(Registered User)

Sat Sep 24 2005 03:34 AM

Re: Hypothetical Landfall Location

thanks for all your responses to my hypothetical question. I will post more when i look at the new data i missed when i went out to eat.

Justin