CFHC Talkback For News Story #100:
Newest Talkback: 06:11 AM 09-12 EDT

Floyd is Days Away
07:05 PM EDT - 11 September 1999

Sometimes people forget that even when talking about storms that something is days away. Floyd itself is (on current thinking) not going to affect the US until Mid Week (Tue-Wed). This gives the forecast lots of time to change, and I think--right now--that it will not directly landfall in Florida.

I'm resting heavily on climatology here in my thinking, with only one model suggesting landfall in Florida (AVN/MRF) I can't really go with that solution now. However, as the new week begins we will have time to track and watch the storm. The NHC official forecast suggest it will come close to Florida--closer than Dennis. This does NOT mean Florida is all clear, quite the contrary. Since there are always exceptions to climatology (Andrew (1992)/ 1935 Labor Day Keys Storm). Everyone along the southeast US coast and Bahamas will need to keep tabs on the storm for a while, and watch the model trends.

The key here will be if these models trend to the west, Florida landfall is more likely, otherwise it could be elsewhere. But since its mid-week we have the weekend to enjoy and ponder where it may go. Floyd is bigger (in both windspeed and size) than Dennis and has more potential to cause havoc. If you disagree or have your own thoughts or questions feel free to comment.

Since some have been comparing Floyd to Andrew (as far as track--note that I don't agree), here is an old satellite loop animation of Andrew.

TD#9 may become Gert later tonight or tomorrow, and the system in the Central Atlantic may form into something, but it will take time if it does at all.

The server debugging session never happened today, but we did alter the code of the site a bit to lessen the chance of an overload-related blackout.

For more information on Hurricane Floyd see the Current Storm Spotlight for Hurricane Floyd.
For more information on TD#9 see the Current Storm Spotlight for TD#9.
NRL Monterey Tracking Site (Navy) -- Very nice forecast track graphics for Floyd.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
GFDL Model & Plot for Floyd and for TD#9
Multiple Model Forecast Composite from Michael Bryson

Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.


- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #9 - #12 (of 25 total)
BAMM and BAMD (#9)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 10:10PM 11-Sep-1999 with id (RPWNVYNTSNQW*)

The latest BAMM and BAMD have been shifted slightly farther south than the previous run. The BAMM has Floyd less than 100 miles east of West Palm Beach moving toward the west-northwest in 72 hours. The BAMD is very similar to the BAMM expect it is a hair to the northeast at 72 hours, yet still moving west-northwest close to the east-central Florida coast. By no means does this mean that Floyd will landfall in Florida; however, it shows that it is a very real possibility. I'll post shortly with my thoughts on movement.

God Bless You,
Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.
HURRICANR FLOYD (#10)
Posted by: Mike Anderson
Posted On 11:04PM 11-Sep-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNRS*)

Good evening to you all, i have been reading most of your post's today and i think everybody has a good point in what they are saying, I would like to add my point tonight, With a system like FLOYD we have to take other things in to consideration, First let me start with the models, they are only as good as the people who feed them, most of them threaten south central Florida, i have noticed that when they threaten Florida people dont talk about the real possiblity of that relm, but when they change and head north everybody yells NC, i need to say that florida is looking down a gun barrel tonight, never underestimate when we have a tropical system and a ridge building to it's north, So what am i saying ,let's go back in time to Andrew, once thought to be a system heading north, but a ridge slipped in and changed that ballgame fast, im saying that this trough will not dig that deep and when it reaches the coast it will find a stronger FLOYD keep you eye on this system, As for the web im happy you like it and im sorry it still has some bug's but i will be trying to work them out all night tonight, the storm chat is open and will have someone in it later tonight, Mike Anderson Florida Wx.
Floyd (#11)
Posted by: Robin
Posted On 11:05PM 11-Sep-1999 with id (RPYNRQRNQSRNTR*)

I am a bit surprised at the general tone of this site's latest posting ("days away, etc.). Without being an alarmist, one must acknowledge that the Peninsula is apparently under the most serious major hurricane threat since Andrew. Rather than reassure the public it is time to spur them on to immediate precautionary action.
Who Else? (#12)
Posted by: Steve Hirschberger Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 11:15PM 11-Sep-1999 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNUR*)

11 pm TPC Update has their track showing the Center of Floyd at 27 N 78.5 W, and in their words "dangerously close to central Fl." This is ahead of most of the other predictions you hear in the media which are saying Weds and Thurs. The intensity forecast shows 920 mb in 72 hours! This could be a Cat 4 storm. Currently, hurricane force winds extend out to 105 from the center and TS force winds 175. This could spread out over the next few days. So even a brush with the coast can bring hurricane force winds inland quite a bit. But I suspect this will be closer than a brush, since the trough probably won't show up til weds. Stay tuned.
getting worried (#13)
Posted by: clyde w Location: orlando
Posted On 11:20PM 11-Sep-1999 with id (RPVNQPTNRPTNYW*)

This storm is looking more and more like erin in '95. also, hurricanes have a tendency to slow down or stall before taking that northen turn with an approaching trough. a worst case scenario is for that to happen on the florida coastline. i unederstand the hosts intention in this post, but i think it is time to sit up and take stock of what you will do if this storm plays out as the models indicate. the latest GFDL shows a 920mb storm in 72 hours, that is a lower pressure than andrew had. of course this is all just conjecture but i think anyone with aninterest in florida should start paying attention!
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