7:45AM CDT 12 June, 2026 Update
An area of low pressure has indeed formed in the Bay of Campeche. This is a very favorable region for Tropical Cyclogenesis and despite less-than-ideal conditions for development, development is possible and in fact the odds appear to be going up. An Invest tag is likely coming, specialized model runs would be added, and perhaps recon will also be tasked, depending.
-Ciel


Original Update
The 8am update for the tropical weather outlook now has the first area of interest for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane season. This area would be the remnants of Cristina in the East Pacific after it crosses Guatemala and Mexico, which has a lot of high mountains. It's overall unlikely to develop, but worth watching in those areas and later on in the Gulf side of Mexico, and rainfall could reach its way into Texas after this. It'll be monitored for mid to late next week, but at this time development chances appear to be very low.






The remnants of east pacific Cristina with some tropical storm warnings up along Guatemala and El Salvador now:



Forecast Lounge discussion for this system in https://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Number=115998&gonew=1#UNREAD