11:30AM EDT Update 13 July 2025
The Area of Interest off the southeast coast has just been tentatively tasked for recon starting Monday. Modeling is increasingly looking favorable on this feature's chances for development and another "homegrown" style system could already be in the making.

While TC numbers during the first two months typically do not foretell how things will play out the rest of a season, they often are from non-tropical entities that acquire sub-tropical to tropical characteristics doing so close to land, which is where most of us live, which means potential impacts.

Occasionally, the broad global atmosphere conspires to make home-grown Atlantic systems considerably more possible than most years. In addition to what is likely to be Invest tagged shortly just off the southeast coast, some attention may also start to be paid to a small, but well-defined area of low pressure located about 250 miles east of the NC/Virginia border that has developed on the trailing end of an east-west oriented front and may be in the process of separating from its parent front.

We now have a Forecast Lounge up on the Area of Interest off the southeast, where we will be delving deeper into its model runs and such: SE Trof Invest TBD
Ciel

Original Update
The lemon area (20%) of the coast is being watched for potential weak development mid week. With models mixed on it, mostly weak, with the exception of the icon.

On satellite the area in question is coming from the convection off the southeast coast, which is expected to travel over Florida monday evening and enter the Gulf. Right now it's only a 20% development.


(Satellite photo from 8AM EDT Sunday 13 July 2025)

This means anywhere the convection passes over will see lots of rain into Florida, and it's likely this area will have a shot at development. It's plenty warm in the Gulf, shear may affect it somewhat. It'll be worth watching closely over the next few days to see how this area progresses. It's likely the area of storms off the Southeast will become an invest area either later today or tomorrow.

For now it's just something to monitor closely.