June Gulf System
Posted: 10:27 AM 12 June 2021 | | Add Comment
3 Areas in June is unusual, however, there is Invest 93L off the Carolina coast that ramped up quickly overnight and now has a 70% chance to develop as it it moves away from land. It seems likely to develop into a short lived subtropical or tropical System, and could become Bill later today.
92L, the area in the Bay of Campeche, has a 60% chance to develop over the next 5 days, and has the potential to organize and cause a large rain event in the north Gulf coast, particularly east of where the center would eventually cross.
The area in the far east Atlantic, is much less likely to develop, but the potential is still there, at 20% over the next 5 days.
The area in the Bay of Campeche along the southwestern Gulf of Mexico now has a 40% chance to develop over the next 5 days, and a 10% chance within the next 48 hours. It's likely going to be mostly a rain event. With the overall pattern and the winds at higher levels in the atmosphere, if anything develops, it likely would be a sheared system with most of rain and convection to right of the center. Still worth watching for those along the northern Gulf coast for late this coming week into next weekend.
For those in Mexico, it will bring a lot of rain as it tries to consolidate.
Currently there is no invest area for this system. The forecast lounge is discussing the longer range models on it.
Invest 92L Event Related Links
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 93L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 93L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
North Gulf Links North Gulf/Southern Mississippi Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West: