Pacific Hurricane Watch in Hawaii and Flooding in SW US. Atlantic Somewhat Active.
Posted: 11:35 PM 23 September 2026 | | Add Comment
There are some hi-res models advertising almost Rapid Intensification of the Gulf Stream coastal low and transition into a hurricane over the next day or two. Reminder, while possible, this is still in actuality a lower-probability outcome (but potentially very high impact if it verifies). Hi-res CAMs often do not handle tropical transitions well when systems are so close to shore, as they concurrently underestimate the frontal influences of being so close to land while also tending do overdo deep convection. Take them with a grain or two of salt. More modeling analysis on the coastal low (wet Nor'easter) can be found in the Forecast Lounge.
Elsewhere, Nolo is intensifying tonight and does indeed appear to be well on its way to becoming a Major while approaching the Big Island of Hawaii. Recon is now in the cyclone and this invaluable data will be fed into models. We can expect greater confidence in their output within the next couple of cycles.
Ciel
11:30AM ET (5:30AM HT) 24 September, 2026 Update
Nolo has stalled forward motion south of the Big Island in response to changing steering currents. The forecast right hand turn towards the north-northeast is likely about to commence. Recon has been scheduled to fly Nolo and will be collecting data invaluable to the models and forecasters working day and night to pin down the details, but in the larger picture, regardless of exact track and intensity, the state will be once again having a major flood risk event. Efforts to protect life and property should already be underway on the Big Island and Maui residents should consider getting ready.
The developing coastal low approaching New England continues having model support for a phase change to a shallow to modestly warm core structure. If verified, this could temporarily enhance both wind and rain potential significantly wherever this sets up and focuses the energy. More on this can be found in the Forecast Lounge
Ciel
Original Update
Rising air motions associated with a favorable MJO state are mostly helping turbo charge the already on fire central and eastern Pacific, but some increase in Atlantic basin activity has been underway the past couple of days, where Fay is still spinning fish, Invest 90L is more likely than not to directly hit the Cabo Verde Islands in the far eastern Atlantic as a TD or named storm and a non-tropical coastal low off the Mid Atlantic may acquire some warm core characteristics. But in reality, for a September, the Atlantic is looking very tame, especially compared to the Pacific.
This entry will include updates on Fay, 90L and the coastal low (with links to any relevant Lounges and such), but once again, the main show is Hawaii and increasingly possibly also Arizona-New Mexico-Colorado-Texas next week, from approaching tropical cyclone or cyclones from the west.
NOLO
HURRICANE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII
WARNINGS MAY GO INTO EFFECT SOON

Tropical Storm Nolo is forecast to soon begin turning poleward, even tracking east of north, coming perilously close to the Big Island of Hawaii while also strengthening to what is now expected to be Major Hurricane status. Given the topography of much of the great state of Hawaii and susceptibilities to heavy rain and runoff, the cyclone wouldn't even have to come close enough to result in widespread wind damage to create another catastrophic event from yet another tropical cyclone this year. This would be Hawaii's third of the year.
Warnings are likely to go into effect for the Big Island by Friday. Current rainfall expectations for the island are widespread 15-20 inches and locally up to 35, resulting in potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. For track and intensity deep-dives, we have a Lounge already up for Nolo.
POLO

Category 5 Polo is presently located about 240 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, MX, tracking northwest. Models increasingly insist that interaction with another approaching eastern Pacific hurricane as well as an approaching mid/upper-level trof will loop Polo back around and into the Baja. Regardless of whether or not the cyclone continues tracking northeast while maintaining much of its intensity, rounds and rounds of rain are already occurring and set to continue in the southwestern United States. Much more on Polo here, including longer range model deep-dives.
Fay Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Fay
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for Fay
CyclonicWx Page for Fay
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Fay
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Fay (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Fay
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/current/ More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Fay -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Gonzalo Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Gonzalo
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for Gonzalo
CyclonicWx Page for Gonzalo
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Gonzalo
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Gonzalo (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Gonzalo
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Gonzalo
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/current/ More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Gonzalo -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Radar:
South Shore Big Island, HI Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Kohala, HI (Big Island) Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Molokai, HI (Maui/Oahu) Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Kauai, HI Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Hawaiian Media:
TV:
Hawaii News Now KGMB 9 (CBS)/KHNL 13 (NBC)
Newspaper:
Hawaii 24/7 (Big Island Newspaper)
Other:
Re: Late Sept/early October hurricane (major?) in the GOMEXCredit: TC-ATLASToday's Happy Hour WNv3 64-member ensemble (Most recent DeepMind version) : 19% chance of tropical storm formation. Median genesis time about 10 days out from today.
Re: Modeled Wet Hybrid Cyclone off Mid-AtlanticDeepMind FNv3 ensembles continuing indicating about a 20-30% chance that this Nor'easter acquires tropical cyclone characteristics at some point during its approach towards the coast. While not highlighted by NHC, mos...
Re: Polo (Cat 5 Presently) Already Impacting SW USToday's 18z FNv3 ensembles/swath for Polo out to 168 hours suggests a fairly high degree of uncertainty still exists out past roughly day among the DeepMinds
Re: Nolo: Potential Hawaii ImpactsToday's 0z runs showing a little more consensus among the Globals and Hurricane Models that the center of Nolo will remain offshore, having taken a sharp left, west - to even southwest, while still fairly south of the...
Re: Polo (Cat 5 Presently) Already Impacting SW USLatest 0z runs of Globals + Hurricane Models on Polo. These tracks are largely cut short not necessarily from implied decay, but rather how many hours these models' runs go for. General consensus that Polo will recurv...
Polo (Cat 5 Presently) Already Impacting SW USMajor Hurricane Polo, now a Category 5 for the second time in as many days, has already been helping pump up copious moisture into the southwestern US, resulting in several areas of significant rainfall and necessitat...
General Hurricane Links
A curated collection of official sources, observations, models, and tropical weather commentary. For urgent weather information, always check official government sources first.
Official / Primary
- National Hurricane Center (NHC)
- Inside the Eye — Official NHC Blog
- Storm Forum (community discussion)
Satellite / Observations
- RAMMB Interactive Satellite Imagery
- Zoom Earth (storm tracks and satellite animation)
- CIMSS MIMIC-TC (microwave imagery)
- NRL Monterey (tracking maps and satellite)
- CIMSS Tropical Weather
- NDBC Buoy Data
- Caribbean Weather Observations
- Interactive Wundermap
- Animated Earth Wind View (Tropical Atlantic)
Data / Tracking / SST
- TC ATLAS (Tropical Cyclone Analysis Tool for Live and Archived Structure)
- Best Track FTP (official invest data)
- Full Active Invest / Storm List
- USNO Current Storm Information (includes Google Earth KMZ)
- Global SST Animation · SST Forecast
- NOAA Weather Radio
- Blitzortung Lightning Map
Forecast Models
Commentary / Tools
- Tropical Tidbits (Levi Cowan)
- Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth)
- Hurricane City (Jim Williams)
- TropicalAtlantic
- Storm2k
- Mike’s WX Page
- Greg Nordstrom
- Gulf Coast Weather
- American Weather
- Crown Weather (Robert Lightbown)
- The Eyewall
- Hurricane Hacker

