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Now looking at a chance for two TDs in the Atlantic (low threat to land), but likely development in the Pacific nearing Hawaii.
Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 669 (Milton), US Major: 669 (Milton), FL Any: 669 (Milton), FL Major: 669 (Milton)
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Three Areas mid August

Posted: 07:13 AM 10 August 2026 | | Add Comment

The Atlantic has three areas of interest this morning. The first area is new, the northern one, quickly moving east. It could develop into a short live system before it hits cooler waters. This has a 10% chance according to the National Hurricane Center.

The second area is the leading wave in the Central Atlantic is heading west with a 10% chance also, this one is less likely to develop and if it does likely to hit shear from the TUTT ahead of it keeping it from developing, those in the Caribbean will want to watch it still however for around Thursday.

The last area is east of there, south of the Cape Verde islands, with a 60% chance to develop, this one is likely the most prime candidate to develop, however, none of them have been invest tagged yet (this one may get tagged later today or tomorrow). It could be the one that slips through the shear, however more likely to miss the islands to the north. But those in the Caribbean still should watch this coming weekend to Monday if this system is weaker than expected. Bermuda also may want to watch much later for mid to late next week as it could get close. That's currently the most likely scenario right now, but it could change. Watch here or the lounge on flhurricane for a bit more speculation. Lounge thread https://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat...;vc=#Post116098

In the Central Pacific, invest CP93 has a 90% chance, and Hawaii should watch closely.


Latest Public Forum Posts
  • Post thumbnail
    East AOI (60%) South of Cabo Verde
    2026 Forecast Lounge | by MikeC | Aug 10, 2026 7:22 AM
    Just showing some model runs here, general idea is it's the only one with a really decent chance to develop on the outlook, no invest yet but could be tagged today or tomorrow.GFS Ensembles, show the first wave remain...
  • Post thumbnail
    Re: Long Range 2026
    2026 Forecast Lounge | by cieldumort | Aug 9, 2026 12:38 PM
    Conditions for development aren't looking particularly favorable for the two waves out in the far eastern Atlantic to central Atlantic over the coming week. Model support does exist for TC genesis, however, with only ...
  • Post thumbnail
    Re: Long Range 2026
    2026 Forecast Lounge | by cieldumort | Aug 9, 2026 4:19 AM
    Now to 180 hours out from 8/9/0z. Approaches to the south of the islands are often of particular concern in case they track just enough to the right (to the north) as to place more of the Hawaiian islands within what ...
  • Post thumbnail
    Re: Long Range 2026
    2026 Forecast Lounge | by cieldumort | Aug 5, 2026 11:38 AM
    Hawaii could be closely watching another approach by this time next week. These AI runs are out to 10 days (240 hours) from 06z today.
  • Post thumbnail
    Re: 2026 Season Guesses
    2026 Storm Forum | by cieldumort | Aug 5, 2026 11:13 AM
    CSU August Update: 9-4-1
  • Post thumbnail
    Re: Long Range 2026
    2026 Forecast Lounge | by CFHC | Aug 5, 2026 9:37 AM
    Longer range has a bit of MDR activity, and there's a wave north (likely too hostile for development there)The modeling does suggest something later though. Euro ai, also shows something in the MDR, bottom line, nothi...
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