1:00PM ET 30 August, 2026 Update


Some very real concerns during strong El Niño years is for waves to be held in check until they are coming much closer to land and also for fronts and/or trofs to linger over the Gulf and/or Gulf stream. We are now seeing these risks in action today as both Invest 97L and Invest Dolly are knocking on our door.

Interests in Louisiana and eastern Texas, perhaps especially the upper Texas coast, may want to begin paying close attention to Invest 97L. Conditions are becoming favorable for further development and a Tropical Depression or Storm could form within 48 hours.

Interests from the Bahamas to Cuba to South Florida may want to begin paying close attention to what we have been calling "Invest Dollly" (Former Tropical Storm Dolly). Conditions in the Gulf and Southwest Atlantic are becoming favorable for further development and a Tropical Depression or Storm could reform within 96 hours.
Ciel


9:30PM ET 29 August, 2026 Update
An area of low pressure that has formed south of Pensacola is presently in hostile conditions for development, but this may change as the system tracks west to west-northwest over the next few days, or at least until it runs into too much land. Considering how close to land Invest 97L already is, despite just 20% NHC odds, "Lemon Odds," we have also now opened up a Lounge for this Area of Interest: Invest 97L Lounge
Ciel

11AM ET 28 August, 2026 Update
Dolly has opened back up into an open wave, even sooner than forecast, and the final NHC Advisory on short-lived Dolly has been written. This wave will continue to be monitored for potential regeneration later in the period, much like we monitor any Invest.
Ciel



Lower Right: Tropical Storm Dolly in the Main Development Region of the Tropical Atlantic on August 27, 2026 1930z

Earlier today, Invest 96L became our first Cape Verde tropical cyclone of the year. Cape Verde tropical cyclone, for a strong El Niño, at any rate. It barely made it, but now Tropical Storm Dolly has formed.

Conditions for Dolly's future aren't looking especially promising, and nearly all models and indeed the official NHC forecast has Dolly opening back up to a stout wave within about 2 days. Some strong blustery wind and heavy showers would still more likely than not affect much of the Antilles, regardless, starting the coming weekend and into at least early next week. After that, a few models and ensembles are warm to regeneration closer to the United States, but this portion of the extended forecast is still very speculative (See Lounge for more on this).