10:30PM CDT 31 August, 2026 Update
A Hurricane Watch and Storm Surge Warning are up for portions of the NW Gulf coast.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for High Island to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for High Island to the Cameron Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Port Bolivar to the Vermilion/Iberia Parish Line


7:00PM CDT 31 August 2026, Update
FIVE has become Tropical Storm Edouard and conditions for further intensification heading towards landfall along the upper Texas coast and/or far southwestern Louisiana are in place.
Ciel

2:00PM ET 31 August, 2026 Update
FIVE has become a tropical cyclone and is now Tropical Depression FIVE (No longer 'Potential'). It was very close and many would argue that NHC could have just classified it a few hours ago, but there is no question now.

Winds to near tropical storm force have recently occurred in the more vigorous band on the south side of the center and FIVE is forecast to become Edouard later today or sometime tonight. As the center was pulled a little further east of its location yesterday in response to a blowup of convection on that side of the system, FIVE will probably now have even more time over the very warm gulf waters. Some model runs ramp it up quite a bit more than the official forecast and this is partly why.
Ciel

1:00PM ET 31 August, 2026 Update
Recon has found sufficient organization within Invest 97L for NHC to begin Advisories on PTC FIVE (Potential Tropical Cyclone). FIVE is expected to become Tropical Storm Edouard tonight and head towards the upper Texas coast.

Elsewhere, Invest Dolly has been decimated by shear while skirting the Greater Antilles. Regeneration odds now only NHC 10%.
Ciel


1:00PM ET 30 August, 2026 Update


Some very real concerns during strong El Niño years is for waves to be held in check until they are coming much closer to land and also for fronts and/or trofs to linger over the Gulf and/or Gulf stream. We are now seeing these risks in action today as both Invest 97L and Invest Dolly are knocking on our door.

Interests in Louisiana and eastern Texas, perhaps especially the upper Texas coast, may want to begin paying close attention to Invest 97L. Conditions are becoming favorable for further development and a Tropical Depression or Storm could form within 48 hours.

Interests from the Bahamas to Cuba to South Florida may want to begin paying close attention to what we have been calling "Invest Dollly" (Former Tropical Storm Dolly). Conditions in the Gulf and Southwest Atlantic are becoming favorable for further development and a Tropical Depression or Storm could reform within 96 hours.
Ciel


9:30PM ET 29 August, 2026 Update
An area of low pressure that has formed south of Pensacola is presently in hostile conditions for development, but this may change as the system tracks west to west-northwest over the next few days, or at least until it runs into too much land. Considering how close to land Invest 97L already is, despite just 20% NHC odds, "Lemon Odds," we have also now opened up a Lounge for this Area of Interest: Invest FIVE Edouard Lounge
Ciel

11AM ET 28 August, 2026 Update
Dolly has opened back up into an open wave, even sooner than forecast, and the final NHC Advisory on short-lived Dolly has been written. This wave will continue to be monitored for potential regeneration later in the period, much like we monitor any Invest.
Ciel



Lower Right: Tropical Storm Dolly in the Main Development Region of the Tropical Atlantic on August 27, 2026 1930z

Earlier today, Invest 96L became our first Cape Verde tropical cyclone of the year. Cape Verde tropical cyclone, for a strong El Niño, at any rate. It barely made it, but now Tropical Storm Dolly has formed.

Conditions for Dolly's future aren't looking especially promising, and nearly all models and indeed the official NHC forecast has Dolly opening back up to a stout wave within about 2 days. Some strong blustery wind and heavy showers would still more likely than not affect much of the Antilles, regardless, starting the coming weekend and into at least early next week. After that, a few models and ensembles are warm to regeneration closer to the United States, but this portion of the extended forecast is still very speculative (See Lounge for more on this).