Barry has made landfall and dissipated, so now the attention moves to the 20% area that stretches from the northeast gulf over Florida into the Southeastern Atlantic.

The primary impact of this area, which is a front that likely will stall out over the same area, along with next to steering currents and high water temperatures gives a ripe area for something to possibly develop. However, this something may try to form over land, and if it does, it won't become anything tropical. This is the most likely scenario. It does mean potential for a lot of rain all week, especially toward the end of the week, mostly along the north west coast of Florida and the panhandle, but also reaching across the peninsula, into southern Georgia, and extreme southeastern North and South Carolina. Meaning if you are in those areas, the likelihood of a washout for independence day is on the high side.

As for development, a lot depends on where something decides to form, if at all. Because of how broad the area is models aren't very good at picking up exactly where something may form. Some favor it leaning toward the Gulf side, some off the southeastern coast, and others split the difference over land, which translates into no tropical development.

To reflect this, tthe image below represents locations various models have picked up on.


Image source Google Deepmind

Anything that shows up in the main line models means it's picking one of these and speculating on what happens. The spread means we'll have to watch it. Even if something forms, the likelihood of it becoming strong are slim, but if anything does it is imperative to keep watch to see how it drifts around in a low steering environment. In short, it needs to be watched all week in case it does consolidate, but most likely won't do much other than
rain.

Any Gulf area developing would be the most impactful, best case would be something offshore the southeast as it would likely wind up moving out to sea from there, unlikely to still be together if it got anywhere close to Bermuda.

As it stands now, the most likely outcome is no tropical development, with a lot of off/on rain.

Event Links

Long term radar recording of Florida for the entire length of the area