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"Tropical Depression 7" is very disorganized and seemingly quite troffy this morning. Earlier model runs should be viewed with skepticism. #td7
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 343 (Milton) , Major: 343 (Milton) Florida - Any: 343 (Milton) Major: 343 (Milton)
19.4N 48.0W
Wind: 50MPH
Pres: 1005mb
Moving:
Nw at 14 mph
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#1245213 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:21 PM 17.Sep.2025)
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gabrielle, located in the central Tropical Atlantic.

East-Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands continues
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are only marginally conducive, and any development of
this system should be slow to occur while it moves westward at 15
to 20 mph across the eastern and central portion of the tropical
Atlantic. Regardless of development, this system will continue to
bring areas of heavy rain across the Cabo Verde Islands through
Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the coast of west Africa by
Friday morning. Some slow development of this system is possible as
it moves west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic
this weekend into early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Gabrielle are issued under
WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Gabrielle are issued under
WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Hagen
#1245211 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:18 PM 17.Sep.2025)
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gabrielle, located in the central Tropical Atlantic.

East-Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands continues
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are only marginally conducive, and any development of
this system should be slow to occur while it moves westward at 15
to 20 mph across the eastern and central portion of the tropical
Atlantic. Regardless of development, this system will continue to
bring areas of heavy rain across the Cabo Verde Islands through
Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the coast of west Africa by
Friday morning. Some slow development of this system is possible as
it moves west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic
this weekend into early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Gabrielle are issued under
WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Gabrielle are issued under
WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Hagen
#1245183 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 PM 17.Sep.2025)
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly
formed Tropical Storm Gabrielle, located in the central Tropical
Atlantic.

East-Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are only marginally conducive, and any development of
this system should be slow to occur while it moves westward at 15 to
20 mph across the eastern and central portion of the tropical
Atlantic. Regardless of development, this system will continue to
bring areas of heavy rain across the Cabo Verde Islands through
Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the coast of west Africa by
Friday. Some slow development of this system is possible as it
moves west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic this
weekend into early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Gabrielle are issued under
WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Gabrielle are issued under
WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Lamers/Blake/Taylor
#1245181 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 PM 17.Sep.2025)
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly
formed Tropical Storm Gabrielle, located in the central Tropical
Atlantic.

East-Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are only marginally conducive, and any development of
this system should be slow to occur while it moves westward at 15 to
20 mph across the eastern and central portion of the tropical
Atlantic. Regardless of development, this system will continue to
bring areas of heavy rain across the Cabo Verde Islands through
Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the coast of west Africa by
Friday. Some slow development of this system is possible as it
moves west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic this
weekend into early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Gabrielle are issued under
WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Gabrielle are issued under
WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Lamers/Blake/Taylor
#1245166 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:45 AM 17.Sep.2025)
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly
formed Tropical Depression Seven, located in the central Tropical
Atlantic.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located just east and southeast of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are only marginally
conducive, and any development of this system should be slow to
occur while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and
central portion of the tropical Atlantic. Regardless of
development, this system will likely bring areas of heavy rain
across the Cabo Verde Islands later today and Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Seven are issued under WMO
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Seven are issued under
WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Beven
#1245164 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:42 AM 17.Sep.2025)
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly
formed Tropical Depression Seven, located in the central Tropical
Atlantic.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located just east and southeast of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are only marginally
conducive, and any development of this system should be slow to
occur while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and
central portion of the tropical Atlantic. Regardless of
development, this system will likely bring areas of heavy rain
across the Cabo Verde Islands later today and Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Seven are issued under WMO
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Seven are issued under
WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Beven
#1245127 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:15 AM 17.Sep.2025)
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Satellite wind data indicate that the low pressure system located
about midway between the Windward Islands and the Cabo Verde Islands
is gradually becoming better defined. In addition, the associated
shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little more
concentrated during the past several hours. If these trends
continue, advisories could be initiated on a tropical depression
later today. The system is expected to move generally northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical and subtropical Atlantic
during the next several days. Additional information on this
system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles east-southeast of
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are only marginally
conducive, and any development of this system should be slow to
occur while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and
central portion of the tropical Atlantic. Regardless of
development, this system will likely bring areas of heavy rain
across the Cabo Verde Islands later today and Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
#1245126 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:09 AM 17.Sep.2025)
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Satellite wind data indicate that the low pressure system located
about midway between the Windward Islands and the Cabo Verde Islands
is gradually becoming better defined. In addition, the associated
shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little more
concentrated during the past several hours. If these trends
continue, advisories could be initiated on a tropical depression
later today. The system is expected to move generally northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical and subtropical Atlantic
during the next several days. Additional information on this
system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles east-southeast of
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are only marginally
conducive, and any development of this system should be slow to
occur while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and
central portion of the tropical Atlantic. Regardless of
development, this system will likely bring areas of heavy rain
across the Cabo Verde Islands later today and Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi