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The 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Starts June 1st, 2023.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 28 (Nicole) , Major: 71 (Ian) Florida - Any: 28 (Nicole) Major: 71 (Ian)
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Hurricane Nicole

Posted: 06:10 AM 07 November 2022 | 3 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 07:03 AM 08-Nov EDT

6:00 PM EST 9 November 2022 Update
Nicole has been upgraded to a hurricane.

10:30 AM EST 8 November 2022 Update
Nicole is now a fully tropical storm, and Hurricane Warnings are now up along the east coast of Florida from Boca Raton, north to the Volusia/Flagler county line as Nicole is forecast to be a category 1 hurricane at landfall late tomorrow night.

Tropical Storm watches are also up from Altamaha Sound near Brunswick, GA to the Savannah River.

Please consult local media and officials for the best information for your local area.

7:30 AM EST 8 November 2022 Update
From recon Nicole is a little stronger this morning, down to 995 (And possibly a little lower now). Watch/warning wise the only change since last night is there are tropical storm watches now up along parts of the west coast of Florida. Tropical Storm warnings and a hurricane watch are still up for the east coast of Florida. A hurricane warning may be issued for parts of the east coast of Florida later today. Nicole is forecast to become purely tropical later today (it's already showing signs of starting to do that), and a category 1 hurricane tomorrow night before landfall along the east Florida coast, with a large area to the north of the landfall point likely to see the worst surge. For those along the east coast, the wind should generally start to pick up today, and especially tomorrow afternoon and evening. I'd bring in or tie down anything loose outdoors you can today if you can since the wind on the north side of the storm is going to be very continual once it gets going and if you're along the east coast in the hurricane watch area, consider doing more preparation.

Please check local officials and media for the best information for your particular area.

10:00 PM EST 7 November 2022 Update
Nicole is a little stronger tonight, with pressure falling to 998mb, recon is en route to check it again. Some dry air has wrapped around it, delaying any significant strengthening.

Tropical Storm warnings are now up for most of the east coast of Florida and part of Georgia, from Hallandale Beach Florida northward to Altamaha Sound in Georgia and Lake Okeechobee . As as well as storm surge warnings along the coast and up the st. Johns. Important to note that the hurricane watch is still up, however, as it will take longer for the hurricane conditions to reach land than the tropical storm conditions. Some portion of the tropical storm warning area may be upgraded to a hurricane warning tomorrow. Watches are conditions expected within 48 hours, while warnings are within 36 hours. Again to point out because of the hybrid/subtropical nature of this the winds on the north side will be much larger in area than a typical tropical storm, so most of Thursday will be very windy, and it'll begin to pick up tomorrow slowly into Wednesday night. I'd strongly recommend securing anything loose outside tomorrow if you are anywhere in the watch/warning area.

Hurricane Warnings remain up for the Northwestern Bahamas.

Watches for portions of the Florida west coast also may go up tomorrow.

4:00 PM EST 7 November 2022 Update
Hurricane Warnings now up for the Northwestern Bahamas. Storm surge watch extended further south into the St. Johns river to Palatka. Huirricane still forecast to landfall in Florida Thursday.

Update us on Conditions in your area for Nicole Here


10:30 AM EST 7 November 2022 Update

Hurricane Watches are up for a good portion of South and East Central Florida, Brevard/Volusia down to Hallandale. Nicole is forecast to be a hurricane at landfall late Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning.

With a large area of winds on the north side, please do not concentrate on the cone itself along the coast, watches/warnings may expand later.


Original Update
Subtropical Storm Nicole Has formed east of the Bahamas and is expected to move toward the Northwestern Bahamas and then Florida Wednesday night into Thursday. Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches are likely to be issued for parts of Florida Later Today.

Nicole currently is subtropical but is forecast to become fully tropical in a few days, the current forecast keeps it just shy of hurricane force before landfall, but the potential exists for a hurricane. Nicole is a very large storm, and with the pressure gradient with the high to the north gradient driven winds will enhance the winds on the north side of Nicole, bringing a prolonged period of coastal flooding, tropical storm form winds, heavy rainfall, surf and rip currents, beach erosion and surge flooding potentially across the SE US coast Georgia up to NC/Virginia and East Florida.

More rain for parts of Florida from Wednesday-Friday, before it moves north. The worst weather, especially winds, is likely to be on the northern half of the storm, but it's important to note the area of impact is going to be large, all the cone particularly on the north side of it will likely be impacted.

Much uncertainty still exists in the final track and intensity of the system. However, impacts to eastern Florida
are expected whether the storm remains sub-tropical or becomes tropical. Preparations need to be completed prior to Wed, as conditions will rapidly deteriorate into Wednesday afternoon, night, and into Thursday. Those still dealing with the devastating impacts from Hurricane Ian are especially encouraged to make preparations and monitor the forecast.

Check local media and officials for the best information for your local area.

Nicole Event Related Links


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[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2022&storm=17 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Nicole
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Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Nicole (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
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Clark Evans Track Plot of Nicole

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Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Nicole
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Nicole -- RAMMB Info
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Invest 97L Event Related Links


float18latest.gif stormplotthumb_18.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2022&storm=18 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 97
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 97


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 97 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 97 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 97

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 97
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 97 -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


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Ed Dunham

Hurricane Matthew Weather Summary for East Central Florida

Posted: 05:32 PM 16 October 2016
Hurricane Matthew passed just offshore of east-central Florida on the morning of October 7, 2016, as a Category III Major Hurricane with sustained winds of 115mph. The diameter of the eye at 5AM on Friday, October 7th, was 35NM and its location was 28.2N 80.0W or about 36 miles east of Patrick AFB with a movement to the north northwest at 13mph. Matthew moved parallel to the Florida coastline from Fort Pierce to Saint Augustine and then northward thereafter toward the South Carolina coast. Matthew never made landfall in Florida - the closest approach was at 6AM when the western edge of the eyewall brushed Cape Canaveral. Although the Tropical Storm force windfield was large, sustained winds of Hurricane strength only extended 40NM from the center on the western side of the tropical cyclone. Sustained hurricane force winds on land were confined to a small area at South Patrick Shores on the Barrier Island and a small area on the eastern tip of Cape Canaveral. In all other east central Florida coastal locations sustained winds of strong tropical storm force were observed. Storm total rainfall was generally in the 3 to 5 inch range except that some areas in Sanford received up to 9 inches of rain. Storm surge was in the 3 to 5 foot range along the east central Florida coast. During the storm, weather observations were not available from Indialantic, Patrick AFB, Cape Canaveral AFS and Titusville Airport - leaving a critical void in the meteorological record.

A low pressure reading of 28.97" was recorded at Melbourne NWS at 7AM. At 7:30AM I noted a pressure reading of 28.98" at my home in northwest Melbourne. The lowest pressure was located in the southern section of the eye of the hurricane and the central pressure from the Hurricane Hunters was recorded at 938MB (27.90") at 1AM. At 4AM the aircraft reported a circular eye with a diameter of 32NM and a central pressure of 942MB with flight level wind at 118 knots which translates to a 100 knot surface wind (115mph). At 7:17AM the aircraft sent a position fix for the eye at 28.6N 80.2W with a pressure of 942MB and eyewall sustained surface winds of 110 knots. The eye of Matthew had contracted to a circular 20NM diameter as the hurricane passed to the east of the area. Although the radius of the eye had contracted from 17NM to 10NM, the radius of sustained hurricane force winds remained at 40 miles to the west of the center. The central pressure increased and leveled off at 947MB during the day on Friday as Matthew moved NNW. If the eye of Matthew had moved along the shoreline, i.e., if it had been 35-40 miles further to the west, damage would have certainly been greater but no realistic conclusion can be made with regard to the extent of the destruction because an on-shore system would have slowly weakened.

Matthew goes into the record books as a Category I Hurricane in a small section of the Brevard County coast. In some reports from the NHC the flight level Recon wind speeds were not reduced correctly and resulted in stated maximum eyewall surface wind speeds that were about 10mph too high - and I cannot find a valid meteorological reason for doing this. Hurricane Erin in 1995 and Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne in 2004 were all storms with a greater impact on Brevard County. While the early call by the Brevard Emergency Management Operations Center to evacuate residents from the Barrier Islands was prudent, the overstated intensity and inland impacts were mis-leading and confusing to some of our residents. The National Hurricane Center and The Weather Channel both over-hyped the overall magnitude of the storm - which will not help folks to make the correct decision when the next hurricane visits our area. Matthew was not the catastrophic Category IV storm of the century that was touted by some for our area. All hurricanes are dangerous and deserve proper preparation and decision-making. It is worth noting that the area from Melbourne Beach to Titusville has never recorded a Cat III or greater hurricane. Someday that record of 165 years will probably be broken, but Matthew was not that storm. Hurricane David, September 3-4, 1979, was the last Category II Hurricane to hit this area with eye passage along the coast from West Palm Beach to New Smyrna Beach.
ED

Selected Weather Reports:

Vero Beach - wind W 49G74mph Rainfall 3.16"
Sebastian - wind N 30G59mph
5N Barefoot Bay - wind N G74mph
4NNW Grant - wind NW 51G68mph
Malabar - wind N 60G72mph
Melbourne Beach - wind N 23G63mph Lowest SLP: 28.85"
Melbourne (Dairy Road) - wind N 44G71mph
Melbourne - wind N 44G76mph Lowest SLP: 28.97"
NW Melbourne - wind NNW 42G65 Lowest SLP: 28.98 Storm Total Rainfall: 3.43"
Satellite Beach - wind N 69G87mph
2SSE Patrick AFB - wind N 69G88mph
South Patrick Shores - wind N 73G90mph Lowest SLP: 28.86"
Cocoa Beach Park - wind N 60G77mph
Merritt Island (Sunset Lakes) - wind NW 36G55mph Lowest SLP: 28.90"
Merritt Island (Banana River) - wind NNW 63G81mph
3WNW Cape Canaveral - wind gust N 86mph
4NE Cape Canaveral - wind gust NNW 81mph Coastal Flooding
5NE Port Canaveral - wind gust N 100mph
KSC Tower 22 - wind gust NW 107mph (non-standard anemometer height)
KSC Tower 3 - NNW 77G107mph (non-standard anemometer height)
Titusville (Parrish Park) - wind N 58G75mph
5NNE New Smyrna Beach - wind gust N 80mph
Daytona Beach (Speedway) - wind gust NNW 91mph
5NE Lake Mary - 24 hour rainfall 7.04"
Orlando Intl Airport - wind W 30G61mph Lowest SLP: 29.30"

From the Melbourne NWS:

G. STORM IMPACTS BY COUNTY...
---------------------------------------------------------------------
COUNTY DEATHS INJURIES EVACUATIONS
DESCRIPTION
---------------------------------------------------------------------
BREVARD 0 1 UNKNOWN
ONE DIRECT INJURY. A MALE IN HIS 40S WAS INJURED IN PORT CANAVERAL
WHEN A SIGN FELL AND STRUCK HIM DURING THE STORM. DAMAGE TO
BUSINESSES AND HOMES MAINLY AS A RESULT OF FALLEN TREES. SEVERAL
HOMES WITH WATER INTRUSION DUE TO DAMAGED ROOFS. TWO HOMES LOST TO
FIRE AS OFFICIALS SUSPENDED EMERGENCY SERVICES DURING THE HEIGHT OF
THE STORM. SPORADIC COUNTYWIDE DAMAGE TO FENCES...AWNINGS...AND
SCREEN ROOMS. AN INITIAL COASTAL SURVEY INDICATES MODERATE TO MAJOR
BEACH EROSION WITH SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO BERMS AND DUNES.
PRELIMINARY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT INDICATES AN ECONOMIC LOSS OF $25
MILLION DUE TO COASTAL EROSION, AND $4 MILLION DUE TO VEGETATIVE
LOSSES. PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT HAS NOT BEEN COMPLETED. ABOUT
300,000 CUSTOMERS WERE WITHOUT POWER AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.

INDIAN RIVER 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. ROUGH SURF AND MAJOR BEACH EROSION.
PRELIMINARY BEACH DAMAGE ASSESSMENT DETAILS MAJOR DUNE EROSION AND
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PEDESTRIAN CROSSWALKS WITHIN COUNTY OWNED
BEACH PARKS WITH AN ESTIMATED ECONOMIC LOSS OF $13 MILLION. SEVERAL
HOMES DAMAGED MAINLY BY FALLEN TREES.

LAKE 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. MINOR URBAN...ROADWAY...AND LOWLAND FLOODING.
THE ST. JOHNS RIVER NEAR ASTOR PEAKED JUST BELOW MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE. MINOR DAMAGE TO FOUR HOMES WITH MAJOR DAMAGE TO THREE CAUSED
MAINLY BY FALLING BRANCHES AND TREES. EARLY PROPERTY DAMAGE
ASSESSMENT OF APPROXIMATELY $389 THOUSAND.

MARTIN 0 1 UNKNOWN
ONE INDIRECT INJURY. A 47-YEAR-OLD MALE WAS ELECTROCUTED WHEN HIS
TOOLS HIT A LIVE POWER LINE WHILE TRIMMING TREES IN STUART AFTER
THE STORM ON MONDAY OCTOBER 10 AROUND 8:15 AM. ROUGH SURF AND MINOR
BEACH EROSION. MINOR DAMAGE TO HOMES MAINLY AS A RESULT OF FALLEN
TREES. ISOLATED DAMAGE TO FENCES...AWNINGS...AND SCREEN ROOMS.
PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT NOT YET AVAILABLE.

OKEECHOBEE 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO ONE HOME. UP TO 2300
CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER AT HEIGHT OF STORM.

ORANGE 1 0 UNKNOWN
ONE DEATH INDIRECTLY RELATED TO HURRICANE MATTHEW. A 70-YEAR-OLD
WOMAN DIED AFTER HER MEDICAL DEVICE FAILED DURING A POWER OUTAGE.
PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT NOT YET AVAILABLE FROM OFFICIALS.

OSCEOLA 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. NO REPORTS OF STRUCTURAL DAMAGE OR FLOODING.
MINOR DAMAGE MAINLY TO TREES AND VEGETATION. UP TO 5900 CUSTOMERS
WERE WITHOUT POWER AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.

SEMINOLE 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. MINOR URBAN...ROADWAY...LOWLAND AND RIVER
FLOODING. DAMAGE TO BUSINESSES AND RESIDENCES MAINLY BY FALLING
BRANCHES AND TREES. INITIAL PROPERTY DAMAGE ESTIMATED $15 MILLION.
UP TO 70,000 CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.

ST. LUCIE 2 2 UNKNOWN
TWO INDIRECT DEATHS AND TWO INDIRECT INJURIES. A 58-YEAR-OLD INDIAN
RIVER ESTATES WOMAN DIED OF A HEART ATTACK AND A PORT ST. LUCIE MAN
IN HIS 80S DIED AFTER SUFFERING BREATHING PROBLEMS AND SYMPTOMS OF A
STROKE AS FIRE OFFICIALS SUSPENDED EMERGENCY SERVICES DURING THE
HURRICANE. A 90-YEAR-OLD MALE AND FEMALE WERE FOUND UNCONSCIOUS IN
THEIR PORT ST. LUCIE HOME AFTER OFFICIALS DISCOVERED THEY WERE
RUNNING A GAS GENERATOR IN THEIR GARAGE. ROUGH SURF AND MODERATE TO
MAJOR BEACH EROSION. DAMAGE CONFINED MAINLY TO TREES...POWER
LINES...AND SIGNAGE THROUGH THE COUNTY. PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT
NOT YET AVAIALBLE FROM OFFICIALS.

VOLUSIA 4 0 UNKNOWN
ONE DIRECT AND THREE INDIRECT FATALITIES. A 63-YEAR-OLD WOMAN DIED
WHEN A TREE FELL ON HER AS SHE WAS OUT FEEDING ANIMALS AT HER DELAND
HOME. A 89-YEAR-OLD MAN FROM DELEON SPRINGS WAS ELECTROCUTED BY A
DOWNED POWER LINE MONDAY MORNING AROUND 8:00 AM OCTOBER 10. A 47-
YEAR-OLD NORTHEAST OHIO MAN ASSISTING CLEANUP EFFORTS IN ORMOND
BEACH WAS KILLED WHEN PART OF A DOWNED TREE ROLLED ON TOP OF HIM AND
PINNED HIM UNDERNEATH. A 9-YEAR-OLD DAYTONA BEACH BOY WAS FOUND
UNCONSCIOUS IN HIS HOME AFTER OFFICIALS DISCOVERED A GENERATOR
RUNNING IN ANOTHER ROOM. THE BOY LATER DIED AT HALIFAX HEATLH
MEDICAL CENTER. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO HOMES AND BUSINESS THROUGHOUT
THE COUNTY WITH OVER 6400 PROPERTIES AFFECTED, 1100 WITH MINOR
DAMAGE, 300 WITH MAJOR DAMAGE, AND 40 STRUCTURES DESTROYED. INITIAL
PROPERTY DAMAGE ESTIMATE OF $490 MILLION. ROUGH SURF AND MAJOR BEACH
EROSION. BEACH EROSION DAMAGE ASSESSMENTS NOT AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME.
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