Local Weather Outlooks/Discussions (20)
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The Lull and the TUTT
Posted: 05:18 AM 29 August 2025 | 4 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 11:33 AM 31-Aug EDT
1:30PM EDT 4 September 2025 Update
Now in peak season and we have increasing threats in both oceans with U.S. states and territories: Pacific (Hawaii) and Atlantic (Caribbean, Gulf and up through the eastern seaboard).
Starting off in the Pacific, models continue converging on a track for Major Hurricane Kiko that takes it directly over, or at a minimum, impactfully close to the Hawaiian islands, including the Big Island. We have an official Forecast Lounge up on Kiko as it is threatening Hawaii:
Hurricane Kiko Forecast Lounge (Hawaii)
In the Tropical Atlantic, the wave we have been tracking for a few days has just been Invest tagged this morning, 91L. The most recent run of the GFS has it now joining both the ECMWF ("EURO") and Google DeepMind in a far more southerly track, which would directly threaten Caribbean islands and likely take the system into the Caribbean itself, if verified. More on this in the 91L Forecast Lounge:
91L Lounge (E ATL Wave)
Ciel
12:00PM EDT 3 September 2025 Update
Quick update to mention a feature in the East Pac that is now of concern for mainland southwestern US, mostly in the form of potentially flooding rains and possibly some isolated severe thunderstorms.
Lorena has become a hurricane south of Baja California. Models that have done the best handling this system are more likely to verify going forward and there is now near certain impactful Lorena-caused weather to affect several portions of the southwestern United States, in addition to landfalling impacts across Baja California and possibly northwestern mainland Mexico. There is an outside chance that the cyclone remains intact across mainland northwestern Mexico into southern Arizona, but for now that is more of an outlier. TCs coming from this direction usually get hung up over or just east of the Gulf of California. However, there is a good chance that Lorena's mid-level circulation will continue across and into the southwestern United States, potentially resulting in enhanced severe thunderstorm risks and a swath of wind damage across higher terrains directly related to its MLC.
We have a de facto "Lounge" up on this approaching hurricane in the Other Basins forum: Hurricane Lorena (Potential Southwest US Impacts)
Ciel
Original Update
Today marks the 20th anniversary of the Mississippi/Louisiana landfall of hurricane Katrina. The largest impact hurricane in modern times, even with a few storms since then that have come close. Thankfully events like these still remain very rare, but still could happen. Katrina was most notable for the storm surge, as it was weakening on approach, but massive, and made landfall close to populated areas and near New Orleans. The surge itself was mostly felt east of there, with coastal Mississippi seeing the worst of it, and surge extending well east into the Florida panhandle. Media coverage then was slow to react as it's a case where internet trackers were ahead of the media by hours. And that water, not wind, was the big story for Katrina.
Mainly because the information blackout was so stark, and those monitoring places before the blackout. The impact to people in all those areas still remains to this day. And this was the year following the 4 Florida hurricane year of 2004. It was the 10th year for this site, and likely the busiest of all of them, before or since.
Today there's a very large lull in activity in the Atlantic, no storms, and one area of interest in the east Atlantic, not invest tagged, that could develop, but faces bad conditions ahead ft it,. most notably a Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Trough, also known as a TUTT, which is a massive deterrent to tropical development that currently exists in the Central Atlantic just east of the Caribbean. Anything tropical going through there would get ripped to pieces. And this area, if it develops, is likely to hit that. (or go north and east of it and be no threat to land). Although this likely will only last a week or two, it's enough to dampen the first few weeks of September. Areas forming from fronts closer to shore are more likely though that time. Things do change mid to late September though. But it's unusual to see effectively no activity in early September in the Atlantic Although last year was similar, it wasn't until late in the month when Helene showed up.
We'll continue to monitor in case any surprises show up. But for now, enjoy the labor day weekend.
Now in peak season and we have increasing threats in both oceans with U.S. states and territories: Pacific (Hawaii) and Atlantic (Caribbean, Gulf and up through the eastern seaboard).
Starting off in the Pacific, models continue converging on a track for Major Hurricane Kiko that takes it directly over, or at a minimum, impactfully close to the Hawaiian islands, including the Big Island. We have an official Forecast Lounge up on Kiko as it is threatening Hawaii:
Hurricane Kiko Forecast Lounge (Hawaii)
In the Tropical Atlantic, the wave we have been tracking for a few days has just been Invest tagged this morning, 91L. The most recent run of the GFS has it now joining both the ECMWF ("EURO") and Google DeepMind in a far more southerly track, which would directly threaten Caribbean islands and likely take the system into the Caribbean itself, if verified. More on this in the 91L Forecast Lounge:
91L Lounge (E ATL Wave)
Ciel
12:00PM EDT 3 September 2025 Update
Quick update to mention a feature in the East Pac that is now of concern for mainland southwestern US, mostly in the form of potentially flooding rains and possibly some isolated severe thunderstorms.
Lorena has become a hurricane south of Baja California. Models that have done the best handling this system are more likely to verify going forward and there is now near certain impactful Lorena-caused weather to affect several portions of the southwestern United States, in addition to landfalling impacts across Baja California and possibly northwestern mainland Mexico. There is an outside chance that the cyclone remains intact across mainland northwestern Mexico into southern Arizona, but for now that is more of an outlier. TCs coming from this direction usually get hung up over or just east of the Gulf of California. However, there is a good chance that Lorena's mid-level circulation will continue across and into the southwestern United States, potentially resulting in enhanced severe thunderstorm risks and a swath of wind damage across higher terrains directly related to its MLC.
We have a de facto "Lounge" up on this approaching hurricane in the Other Basins forum: Hurricane Lorena (Potential Southwest US Impacts)
Ciel
Original Update
Today marks the 20th anniversary of the Mississippi/Louisiana landfall of hurricane Katrina. The largest impact hurricane in modern times, even with a few storms since then that have come close. Thankfully events like these still remain very rare, but still could happen. Katrina was most notable for the storm surge, as it was weakening on approach, but massive, and made landfall close to populated areas and near New Orleans. The surge itself was mostly felt east of there, with coastal Mississippi seeing the worst of it, and surge extending well east into the Florida panhandle. Media coverage then was slow to react as it's a case where internet trackers were ahead of the media by hours. And that water, not wind, was the big story for Katrina.
Mainly because the information blackout was so stark, and those monitoring places before the blackout. The impact to people in all those areas still remains to this day. And this was the year following the 4 Florida hurricane year of 2004. It was the 10th year for this site, and likely the busiest of all of them, before or since.
Today there's a very large lull in activity in the Atlantic, no storms, and one area of interest in the east Atlantic, not invest tagged, that could develop, but faces bad conditions ahead ft it,. most notably a Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Trough, also known as a TUTT, which is a massive deterrent to tropical development that currently exists in the Central Atlantic just east of the Caribbean. Anything tropical going through there would get ripped to pieces. And this area, if it develops, is likely to hit that. (or go north and east of it and be no threat to land). Although this likely will only last a week or two, it's enough to dampen the first few weeks of September. Areas forming from fronts closer to shore are more likely though that time. Things do change mid to late September though. But it's unusual to see effectively no activity in early September in the Atlantic Although last year was similar, it wasn't until late in the month when Helene showed up.
We'll continue to monitor in case any surprises show up. But for now, enjoy the labor day weekend.
Invest 92L Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 92
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for 92
CyclonicWx Page for 92
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 92
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 92 (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 92
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/current/ More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 92 -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations
Full Caribbean Radar Composite
Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)
Latest Meteorologist Blog - See More Blogs...
Ed Dunham
Hurricane Matthew Weather Summary for East Central Florida
Posted: 05:32 PM 16 October 2016
Hurricane Matthew passed just offshore of east-central Florida on the morning of October 7, 2016, as a Category III Major Hurricane with sustained winds of 115mph. The diameter of the eye at 5AM on Friday, October 7th, was 35NM and its location was 28.2N 80.0W or about 36 miles east of Patrick AFB with a movement to the north northwest at 13mph. Matthew moved parallel to the Florida coastline from Fort Pierce to Saint Augustine and then northward thereafter toward the South Carolina coast. Matthew never made landfall in Florida - the closest approach was at 6AM when the western edge of the eyewall brushed Cape Canaveral. Although the Tropical Storm force windfield was large, sustained winds of Hurricane strength only extended 40NM from the center on the western side of the tropical cyclone. Sustained hurricane force winds on land were confined to a small area at South Patrick Shores on the Barrier Island and a small area on the eastern tip of Cape Canaveral. In all other east central Florida coastal locations sustained winds of strong tropical storm force were observed. Storm total rainfall was generally in the 3 to 5 inch range except that some areas in Sanford received up to 9 inches of rain. Storm surge was in the 3 to 5 foot range along the east central Florida coast. During the storm, weather observations were not available from Indialantic, Patrick AFB, Cape Canaveral AFS and Titusville Airport - leaving a critical void in the meteorological record.
A low pressure reading of 28.97" was recorded at Melbourne NWS at 7AM. At 7:30AM I noted a pressure reading of 28.98" at my home in northwest Melbourne. The lowest pressure was located in the southern section of the eye of the hurricane and the central pressure from the Hurricane Hunters was recorded at 938MB (27.90") at 1AM. At 4AM the aircraft reported a circular eye with a diameter of 32NM and a central pressure of 942MB with flight level wind at 118 knots which translates to a 100 knot surface wind (115mph). At 7:17AM the aircraft sent a position fix for the eye at 28.6N 80.2W with a pressure of 942MB and eyewall sustained surface winds of 110 knots. The eye of Matthew had contracted to a circular 20NM diameter as the hurricane passed to the east of the area. Although the radius of the eye had contracted from 17NM to 10NM, the radius of sustained hurricane force winds remained at 40 miles to the west of the center. The central pressure increased and leveled off at 947MB during the day on Friday as Matthew moved NNW. If the eye of Matthew had moved along the shoreline, i.e., if it had been 35-40 miles further to the west, damage would have certainly been greater but no realistic conclusion can be made with regard to the extent of the destruction because an on-shore system would have slowly weakened.
Matthew goes into the record books as a Category I Hurricane in a small section of the Brevard County coast. In some reports from the NHC the flight level Recon wind speeds were not reduced correctly and resulted in stated maximum eyewall surface wind speeds that were about 10mph too high - and I cannot find a valid meteorological reason for doing this. Hurricane Erin in 1995 and Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne in 2004 were all storms with a greater impact on Brevard County. While the early call by the Brevard Emergency Management Operations Center to evacuate residents from the Barrier Islands was prudent, the overstated intensity and inland impacts were mis-leading and confusing to some of our residents. The National Hurricane Center and The Weather Channel both over-hyped the overall magnitude of the storm - which will not help folks to make the correct decision when the next hurricane visits our area. Matthew was not the catastrophic Category IV storm of the century that was touted by some for our area. All hurricanes are dangerous and deserve proper preparation and decision-making. It is worth noting that the area from Melbourne Beach to Titusville has never recorded a Cat III or greater hurricane. Someday that record of 165 years will probably be broken, but Matthew was not that storm. Hurricane David, September 3-4, 1979, was the last Category II Hurricane to hit this area with eye passage along the coast from West Palm Beach to New Smyrna Beach.
ED
Selected Weather Reports:
Vero Beach - wind W 49G74mph Rainfall 3.16"
Sebastian - wind N 30G59mph
5N Barefoot Bay - wind N G74mph
4NNW Grant - wind NW 51G68mph
Malabar - wind N 60G72mph
Melbourne Beach - wind N 23G63mph Lowest SLP: 28.85"
Melbourne (Dairy Road) - wind N 44G71mph
Melbourne - wind N 44G76mph Lowest SLP: 28.97"
NW Melbourne - wind NNW 42G65 Lowest SLP: 28.98 Storm Total Rainfall: 3.43"
Satellite Beach - wind N 69G87mph
2SSE Patrick AFB - wind N 69G88mph
South Patrick Shores - wind N 73G90mph Lowest SLP: 28.86"
Cocoa Beach Park - wind N 60G77mph
Merritt Island (Sunset Lakes) - wind NW 36G55mph Lowest SLP: 28.90"
Merritt Island (Banana River) - wind NNW 63G81mph
3WNW Cape Canaveral - wind gust N 86mph
4NE Cape Canaveral - wind gust NNW 81mph Coastal Flooding
5NE Port Canaveral - wind gust N 100mph
KSC Tower 22 - wind gust NW 107mph (non-standard anemometer height)
KSC Tower 3 - NNW 77G107mph (non-standard anemometer height)
Titusville (Parrish Park) - wind N 58G75mph
5NNE New Smyrna Beach - wind gust N 80mph
Daytona Beach (Speedway) - wind gust NNW 91mph
5NE Lake Mary - 24 hour rainfall 7.04"
Orlando Intl Airport - wind W 30G61mph Lowest SLP: 29.30"
From the Melbourne NWS:
G. STORM IMPACTS BY COUNTY...
---------------------------------------------------------------------
COUNTY DEATHS INJURIES EVACUATIONS
DESCRIPTION
---------------------------------------------------------------------
BREVARD 0 1 UNKNOWN
ONE DIRECT INJURY. A MALE IN HIS 40S WAS INJURED IN PORT CANAVERAL
WHEN A SIGN FELL AND STRUCK HIM DURING THE STORM. DAMAGE TO
BUSINESSES AND HOMES MAINLY AS A RESULT OF FALLEN TREES. SEVERAL
HOMES WITH WATER INTRUSION DUE TO DAMAGED ROOFS. TWO HOMES LOST TO
FIRE AS OFFICIALS SUSPENDED EMERGENCY SERVICES DURING THE HEIGHT OF
THE STORM. SPORADIC COUNTYWIDE DAMAGE TO FENCES...AWNINGS...AND
SCREEN ROOMS. AN INITIAL COASTAL SURVEY INDICATES MODERATE TO MAJOR
BEACH EROSION WITH SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO BERMS AND DUNES.
PRELIMINARY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT INDICATES AN ECONOMIC LOSS OF $25
MILLION DUE TO COASTAL EROSION, AND $4 MILLION DUE TO VEGETATIVE
LOSSES. PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT HAS NOT BEEN COMPLETED. ABOUT
300,000 CUSTOMERS WERE WITHOUT POWER AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.
INDIAN RIVER 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. ROUGH SURF AND MAJOR BEACH EROSION.
PRELIMINARY BEACH DAMAGE ASSESSMENT DETAILS MAJOR DUNE EROSION AND
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PEDESTRIAN CROSSWALKS WITHIN COUNTY OWNED
BEACH PARKS WITH AN ESTIMATED ECONOMIC LOSS OF $13 MILLION. SEVERAL
HOMES DAMAGED MAINLY BY FALLEN TREES.
LAKE 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. MINOR URBAN...ROADWAY...AND LOWLAND FLOODING.
THE ST. JOHNS RIVER NEAR ASTOR PEAKED JUST BELOW MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE. MINOR DAMAGE TO FOUR HOMES WITH MAJOR DAMAGE TO THREE CAUSED
MAINLY BY FALLING BRANCHES AND TREES. EARLY PROPERTY DAMAGE
ASSESSMENT OF APPROXIMATELY $389 THOUSAND.
MARTIN 0 1 UNKNOWN
ONE INDIRECT INJURY. A 47-YEAR-OLD MALE WAS ELECTROCUTED WHEN HIS
TOOLS HIT A LIVE POWER LINE WHILE TRIMMING TREES IN STUART AFTER
THE STORM ON MONDAY OCTOBER 10 AROUND 8:15 AM. ROUGH SURF AND MINOR
BEACH EROSION. MINOR DAMAGE TO HOMES MAINLY AS A RESULT OF FALLEN
TREES. ISOLATED DAMAGE TO FENCES...AWNINGS...AND SCREEN ROOMS.
PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT NOT YET AVAILABLE.
OKEECHOBEE 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO ONE HOME. UP TO 2300
CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER AT HEIGHT OF STORM.
ORANGE 1 0 UNKNOWN
ONE DEATH INDIRECTLY RELATED TO HURRICANE MATTHEW. A 70-YEAR-OLD
WOMAN DIED AFTER HER MEDICAL DEVICE FAILED DURING A POWER OUTAGE.
PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT NOT YET AVAILABLE FROM OFFICIALS.
OSCEOLA 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. NO REPORTS OF STRUCTURAL DAMAGE OR FLOODING.
MINOR DAMAGE MAINLY TO TREES AND VEGETATION. UP TO 5900 CUSTOMERS
WERE WITHOUT POWER AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.
SEMINOLE 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. MINOR URBAN...ROADWAY...LOWLAND AND RIVER
FLOODING. DAMAGE TO BUSINESSES AND RESIDENCES MAINLY BY FALLING
BRANCHES AND TREES. INITIAL PROPERTY DAMAGE ESTIMATED $15 MILLION.
UP TO 70,000 CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.
ST. LUCIE 2 2 UNKNOWN
TWO INDIRECT DEATHS AND TWO INDIRECT INJURIES. A 58-YEAR-OLD INDIAN
RIVER ESTATES WOMAN DIED OF A HEART ATTACK AND A PORT ST. LUCIE MAN
IN HIS 80S DIED AFTER SUFFERING BREATHING PROBLEMS AND SYMPTOMS OF A
STROKE AS FIRE OFFICIALS SUSPENDED EMERGENCY SERVICES DURING THE
HURRICANE. A 90-YEAR-OLD MALE AND FEMALE WERE FOUND UNCONSCIOUS IN
THEIR PORT ST. LUCIE HOME AFTER OFFICIALS DISCOVERED THEY WERE
RUNNING A GAS GENERATOR IN THEIR GARAGE. ROUGH SURF AND MODERATE TO
MAJOR BEACH EROSION. DAMAGE CONFINED MAINLY TO TREES...POWER
LINES...AND SIGNAGE THROUGH THE COUNTY. PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT
NOT YET AVAIALBLE FROM OFFICIALS.
VOLUSIA 4 0 UNKNOWN
ONE DIRECT AND THREE INDIRECT FATALITIES. A 63-YEAR-OLD WOMAN DIED
WHEN A TREE FELL ON HER AS SHE WAS OUT FEEDING ANIMALS AT HER DELAND
HOME. A 89-YEAR-OLD MAN FROM DELEON SPRINGS WAS ELECTROCUTED BY A
DOWNED POWER LINE MONDAY MORNING AROUND 8:00 AM OCTOBER 10. A 47-
YEAR-OLD NORTHEAST OHIO MAN ASSISTING CLEANUP EFFORTS IN ORMOND
BEACH WAS KILLED WHEN PART OF A DOWNED TREE ROLLED ON TOP OF HIM AND
PINNED HIM UNDERNEATH. A 9-YEAR-OLD DAYTONA BEACH BOY WAS FOUND
UNCONSCIOUS IN HIS HOME AFTER OFFICIALS DISCOVERED A GENERATOR
RUNNING IN ANOTHER ROOM. THE BOY LATER DIED AT HALIFAX HEATLH
MEDICAL CENTER. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO HOMES AND BUSINESS THROUGHOUT
THE COUNTY WITH OVER 6400 PROPERTIES AFFECTED, 1100 WITH MINOR
DAMAGE, 300 WITH MAJOR DAMAGE, AND 40 STRUCTURES DESTROYED. INITIAL
PROPERTY DAMAGE ESTIMATE OF $490 MILLION. ROUGH SURF AND MAJOR BEACH
EROSION. BEACH EROSION DAMAGE ASSESSMENTS NOT AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME.
A low pressure reading of 28.97" was recorded at Melbourne NWS at 7AM. At 7:30AM I noted a pressure reading of 28.98" at my home in northwest Melbourne. The lowest pressure was located in the southern section of the eye of the hurricane and the central pressure from the Hurricane Hunters was recorded at 938MB (27.90") at 1AM. At 4AM the aircraft reported a circular eye with a diameter of 32NM and a central pressure of 942MB with flight level wind at 118 knots which translates to a 100 knot surface wind (115mph). At 7:17AM the aircraft sent a position fix for the eye at 28.6N 80.2W with a pressure of 942MB and eyewall sustained surface winds of 110 knots. The eye of Matthew had contracted to a circular 20NM diameter as the hurricane passed to the east of the area. Although the radius of the eye had contracted from 17NM to 10NM, the radius of sustained hurricane force winds remained at 40 miles to the west of the center. The central pressure increased and leveled off at 947MB during the day on Friday as Matthew moved NNW. If the eye of Matthew had moved along the shoreline, i.e., if it had been 35-40 miles further to the west, damage would have certainly been greater but no realistic conclusion can be made with regard to the extent of the destruction because an on-shore system would have slowly weakened.
Matthew goes into the record books as a Category I Hurricane in a small section of the Brevard County coast. In some reports from the NHC the flight level Recon wind speeds were not reduced correctly and resulted in stated maximum eyewall surface wind speeds that were about 10mph too high - and I cannot find a valid meteorological reason for doing this. Hurricane Erin in 1995 and Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne in 2004 were all storms with a greater impact on Brevard County. While the early call by the Brevard Emergency Management Operations Center to evacuate residents from the Barrier Islands was prudent, the overstated intensity and inland impacts were mis-leading and confusing to some of our residents. The National Hurricane Center and The Weather Channel both over-hyped the overall magnitude of the storm - which will not help folks to make the correct decision when the next hurricane visits our area. Matthew was not the catastrophic Category IV storm of the century that was touted by some for our area. All hurricanes are dangerous and deserve proper preparation and decision-making. It is worth noting that the area from Melbourne Beach to Titusville has never recorded a Cat III or greater hurricane. Someday that record of 165 years will probably be broken, but Matthew was not that storm. Hurricane David, September 3-4, 1979, was the last Category II Hurricane to hit this area with eye passage along the coast from West Palm Beach to New Smyrna Beach.
ED
Selected Weather Reports:
Vero Beach - wind W 49G74mph Rainfall 3.16"
Sebastian - wind N 30G59mph
5N Barefoot Bay - wind N G74mph
4NNW Grant - wind NW 51G68mph
Malabar - wind N 60G72mph
Melbourne Beach - wind N 23G63mph Lowest SLP: 28.85"
Melbourne (Dairy Road) - wind N 44G71mph
Melbourne - wind N 44G76mph Lowest SLP: 28.97"
NW Melbourne - wind NNW 42G65 Lowest SLP: 28.98 Storm Total Rainfall: 3.43"
Satellite Beach - wind N 69G87mph
2SSE Patrick AFB - wind N 69G88mph
South Patrick Shores - wind N 73G90mph Lowest SLP: 28.86"
Cocoa Beach Park - wind N 60G77mph
Merritt Island (Sunset Lakes) - wind NW 36G55mph Lowest SLP: 28.90"
Merritt Island (Banana River) - wind NNW 63G81mph
3WNW Cape Canaveral - wind gust N 86mph
4NE Cape Canaveral - wind gust NNW 81mph Coastal Flooding
5NE Port Canaveral - wind gust N 100mph
KSC Tower 22 - wind gust NW 107mph (non-standard anemometer height)
KSC Tower 3 - NNW 77G107mph (non-standard anemometer height)
Titusville (Parrish Park) - wind N 58G75mph
5NNE New Smyrna Beach - wind gust N 80mph
Daytona Beach (Speedway) - wind gust NNW 91mph
5NE Lake Mary - 24 hour rainfall 7.04"
Orlando Intl Airport - wind W 30G61mph Lowest SLP: 29.30"
From the Melbourne NWS:
G. STORM IMPACTS BY COUNTY...
---------------------------------------------------------------------
COUNTY DEATHS INJURIES EVACUATIONS
DESCRIPTION
---------------------------------------------------------------------
BREVARD 0 1 UNKNOWN
ONE DIRECT INJURY. A MALE IN HIS 40S WAS INJURED IN PORT CANAVERAL
WHEN A SIGN FELL AND STRUCK HIM DURING THE STORM. DAMAGE TO
BUSINESSES AND HOMES MAINLY AS A RESULT OF FALLEN TREES. SEVERAL
HOMES WITH WATER INTRUSION DUE TO DAMAGED ROOFS. TWO HOMES LOST TO
FIRE AS OFFICIALS SUSPENDED EMERGENCY SERVICES DURING THE HEIGHT OF
THE STORM. SPORADIC COUNTYWIDE DAMAGE TO FENCES...AWNINGS...AND
SCREEN ROOMS. AN INITIAL COASTAL SURVEY INDICATES MODERATE TO MAJOR
BEACH EROSION WITH SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO BERMS AND DUNES.
PRELIMINARY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT INDICATES AN ECONOMIC LOSS OF $25
MILLION DUE TO COASTAL EROSION, AND $4 MILLION DUE TO VEGETATIVE
LOSSES. PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT HAS NOT BEEN COMPLETED. ABOUT
300,000 CUSTOMERS WERE WITHOUT POWER AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.
INDIAN RIVER 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. ROUGH SURF AND MAJOR BEACH EROSION.
PRELIMINARY BEACH DAMAGE ASSESSMENT DETAILS MAJOR DUNE EROSION AND
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PEDESTRIAN CROSSWALKS WITHIN COUNTY OWNED
BEACH PARKS WITH AN ESTIMATED ECONOMIC LOSS OF $13 MILLION. SEVERAL
HOMES DAMAGED MAINLY BY FALLEN TREES.
LAKE 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. MINOR URBAN...ROADWAY...AND LOWLAND FLOODING.
THE ST. JOHNS RIVER NEAR ASTOR PEAKED JUST BELOW MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE. MINOR DAMAGE TO FOUR HOMES WITH MAJOR DAMAGE TO THREE CAUSED
MAINLY BY FALLING BRANCHES AND TREES. EARLY PROPERTY DAMAGE
ASSESSMENT OF APPROXIMATELY $389 THOUSAND.
MARTIN 0 1 UNKNOWN
ONE INDIRECT INJURY. A 47-YEAR-OLD MALE WAS ELECTROCUTED WHEN HIS
TOOLS HIT A LIVE POWER LINE WHILE TRIMMING TREES IN STUART AFTER
THE STORM ON MONDAY OCTOBER 10 AROUND 8:15 AM. ROUGH SURF AND MINOR
BEACH EROSION. MINOR DAMAGE TO HOMES MAINLY AS A RESULT OF FALLEN
TREES. ISOLATED DAMAGE TO FENCES...AWNINGS...AND SCREEN ROOMS.
PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT NOT YET AVAILABLE.
OKEECHOBEE 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO ONE HOME. UP TO 2300
CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER AT HEIGHT OF STORM.
ORANGE 1 0 UNKNOWN
ONE DEATH INDIRECTLY RELATED TO HURRICANE MATTHEW. A 70-YEAR-OLD
WOMAN DIED AFTER HER MEDICAL DEVICE FAILED DURING A POWER OUTAGE.
PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT NOT YET AVAILABLE FROM OFFICIALS.
OSCEOLA 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. NO REPORTS OF STRUCTURAL DAMAGE OR FLOODING.
MINOR DAMAGE MAINLY TO TREES AND VEGETATION. UP TO 5900 CUSTOMERS
WERE WITHOUT POWER AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.
SEMINOLE 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. MINOR URBAN...ROADWAY...LOWLAND AND RIVER
FLOODING. DAMAGE TO BUSINESSES AND RESIDENCES MAINLY BY FALLING
BRANCHES AND TREES. INITIAL PROPERTY DAMAGE ESTIMATED $15 MILLION.
UP TO 70,000 CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.
ST. LUCIE 2 2 UNKNOWN
TWO INDIRECT DEATHS AND TWO INDIRECT INJURIES. A 58-YEAR-OLD INDIAN
RIVER ESTATES WOMAN DIED OF A HEART ATTACK AND A PORT ST. LUCIE MAN
IN HIS 80S DIED AFTER SUFFERING BREATHING PROBLEMS AND SYMPTOMS OF A
STROKE AS FIRE OFFICIALS SUSPENDED EMERGENCY SERVICES DURING THE
HURRICANE. A 90-YEAR-OLD MALE AND FEMALE WERE FOUND UNCONSCIOUS IN
THEIR PORT ST. LUCIE HOME AFTER OFFICIALS DISCOVERED THEY WERE
RUNNING A GAS GENERATOR IN THEIR GARAGE. ROUGH SURF AND MODERATE TO
MAJOR BEACH EROSION. DAMAGE CONFINED MAINLY TO TREES...POWER
LINES...AND SIGNAGE THROUGH THE COUNTY. PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT
NOT YET AVAIALBLE FROM OFFICIALS.
VOLUSIA 4 0 UNKNOWN
ONE DIRECT AND THREE INDIRECT FATALITIES. A 63-YEAR-OLD WOMAN DIED
WHEN A TREE FELL ON HER AS SHE WAS OUT FEEDING ANIMALS AT HER DELAND
HOME. A 89-YEAR-OLD MAN FROM DELEON SPRINGS WAS ELECTROCUTED BY A
DOWNED POWER LINE MONDAY MORNING AROUND 8:00 AM OCTOBER 10. A 47-
YEAR-OLD NORTHEAST OHIO MAN ASSISTING CLEANUP EFFORTS IN ORMOND
BEACH WAS KILLED WHEN PART OF A DOWNED TREE ROLLED ON TOP OF HIM AND
PINNED HIM UNDERNEATH. A 9-YEAR-OLD DAYTONA BEACH BOY WAS FOUND
UNCONSCIOUS IN HIS HOME AFTER OFFICIALS DISCOVERED A GENERATOR
RUNNING IN ANOTHER ROOM. THE BOY LATER DIED AT HALIFAX HEATLH
MEDICAL CENTER. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO HOMES AND BUSINESS THROUGHOUT
THE COUNTY WITH OVER 6400 PROPERTIES AFFECTED, 1100 WITH MINOR
DAMAGE, 300 WITH MAJOR DAMAGE, AND 40 STRUCTURES DESTROYED. INITIAL
PROPERTY DAMAGE ESTIMATE OF $490 MILLION. ROUGH SURF AND MAJOR BEACH
EROSION. BEACH EROSION DAMAGE ASSESSMENTS NOT AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME.
General Links
Inside the Eye - Official National Hurricane Center Blog
RAMMB Interactive Satellite Imagery Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC-TC)
NRL-Monterey (Nice Tracking Maps and Satellite)
Zoom Earth (Storm Tracks + Satellite Animation)
USNO Information on Current Storms (including Google Earth KMZ Files)
Best Track FTP, official source of invest data - Full Active Invest/Storm List
Interactive Wundermap
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here: Global SST Animation - SST Forecast.
Google Deepmind models (New for 2025) -Atlantic Animation of Google Model
CIMSS Tropical Weather
Buoy
NASA MSFC North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images, RAMSDIS Satellite Images (rapid-scan imagery)
Full Western Hemisphere Sat Animation
Buoy Data, Dvorak Estimates
Caribbean Weather Observations
Some forecast models:
Tropical Tidbits Models
Pivotal Weather Models (Icon, Euro, EuroAI, Canadian )
WeatherNerds Ensembles
Tomer Burg's mult-model ensemble plots
Multiple model output from Ryan Maue (HWRF, GFDL, GFS, etc)
Weathermodels.com
San Jose State Models and More
Animated Earth Wind view of Tropical Atlantic
GFS, ECMWF (ECMWF) and ECMWF
FSU: CMC, GFDL, GFS, NOGAPS, HWRF; Phase Analysis
GFS, RUC, ETA
FIM Model
Other commentary from Tropical Tidbits (Levi Cowan), Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), Hurricane City (Jim Williams), TropicalAtlantic, storm2k, Mike's WX Page, Greg Nordstrom, Gulf Coast Weather, American Weather - , Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update The Eyewall/Matt Lanza - Yaakov Cantor / Hurricane Hacker
NOAA Weather Radio
Even more on the links page.
Inside the Eye - Official National Hurricane Center Blog
RAMMB Interactive Satellite Imagery Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC-TC)
NRL-Monterey (Nice Tracking Maps and Satellite)
Zoom Earth (Storm Tracks + Satellite Animation)
USNO Information on Current Storms (including Google Earth KMZ Files)
Best Track FTP, official source of invest data - Full Active Invest/Storm List
Interactive Wundermap
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here: Global SST Animation - SST Forecast.
Google Deepmind models (New for 2025) -Atlantic Animation of Google Model
CIMSS Tropical Weather
Buoy
NASA MSFC North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images, RAMSDIS Satellite Images (rapid-scan imagery)
Full Western Hemisphere Sat Animation
Buoy Data, Dvorak Estimates
Caribbean Weather Observations
Some forecast models:
Tropical Tidbits Models
Pivotal Weather Models (Icon, Euro, EuroAI, Canadian )
WeatherNerds Ensembles
Tomer Burg's mult-model ensemble plots
Multiple model output from Ryan Maue (HWRF, GFDL, GFS, etc)
Weathermodels.com
San Jose State Models and More
Animated Earth Wind view of Tropical Atlantic
GFS, ECMWF (ECMWF) and ECMWF
FSU: CMC, GFDL, GFS, NOGAPS, HWRF; Phase Analysis
GFS, RUC, ETA
FIM Model
Other commentary from Tropical Tidbits (Levi Cowan), Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), Hurricane City (Jim Williams), TropicalAtlantic, storm2k, Mike's WX Page, Greg Nordstrom, Gulf Coast Weather, American Weather - , Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update The Eyewall/Matt Lanza - Yaakov Cantor / Hurricane Hacker
NOAA Weather Radio
Even more on the links page.
