MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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7:00PM CDT Update 17 July 2025
The last outlook reduced chances to 0, and 93L has no more chances to develop over land. It will bring an area of :Heavy rain, particularly in Western Louisiana tonight through tomorrow.
12:00PM CDT Update 17 July 2025
Invest 93L is a hot mess and unlikely to become a TC today, but those odds are also not zero for several reasons, none of which so far look to be materializing. Consequently, the disturbance is coming into Louisiana primarily as flood-threat, which would have been the case either way, but now with less wind as one would expect in a TD or named storm.
Looking ahead, models are increasingly warming up that forecast with 93L remnants looping back around for a second-go in the Gulf and/or even a split scenario with part of the energy in the Gulf and part off the Carolinas. Additionally, the deep tropical Atlantic may be waking up.
Ciel
6:00AM CDT Update 17 July 2025
Invest 93L's time to develop is nearly up and it looks unlikely to before reaching Louisiana. However, some heavy rainfall in bands and around the core can still cause issues, particularly south and west. Elsewhere heavy rain will be come and go from bands, particularly in the late afternoon and evening. some areas will see much more than others.. Monitor local weather services and officials for more information. Southern Louisiana will see the most rain today, and it will likely more wll shift west closer to Lake Charles and south of Lafayette through tomorrow. Beyond that, the remnants will have to be watched for heavy rains/flooding through parts of MS, AL, GA, TN, and NC as it could loop back into the Atlantic.
12:30PM CDT Update 16 July 2025
The axis of 93L, now a trof, is just now exiting western Florida and entering the northernmost Gulf of America. The environment in this portion of the Gulf is actually suitable for development, with very warm water and light shear, and provided the Area of Interest doesn't track too far north (land, again), or too far south (shear, again), could have a Goldilocks moment.
Ciel
7:00AM EDT Update 16 July 2025
93L continues to be a relatively disorganized elongated north-to-south low with heaviest convection west and south of the area. It's currently straddling the Florida Panhandle coastline. The proximity to the north Gulf coast is likely to keep any development limited today, but has a chance to develop slightly before reaching Louisiana (if it does it would be more likely as it gets much closer to Louisiana).
Most of the rain is going to remain offshore, except in late afternoon and early evening when storms will pop up more along the lines from it with the exception of the areas very close to the elongated center. Also banding east of the system trailing it may affect more of Florida today. Extreme Southeastern Louisiana may also see more rain than normal.
Once over Louisiana the area may linger around in the general area keeping rain chances up for days later for Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and parts of the Panhandle.
7:00AM EDT Update 15 July 2025
93L appears to be close to moving into Florida between New Smyrna Beach and Cape Canaveral (close to Oak Hill/Apollo Beach in a remote area along the Canaveral National Seashore) This will likely bring some of the heaviest rainfall just to the south of it, Including Titusville through Melbourne, and the Orlando area, and gradually move across, later in the day the afternoon heating may kick in and enhance the bands as it moves across the state, some of which could be strong. Development into a depression before landfall is unlikely, but it's still fairly close, circulation is still evident on radar and satellite.
The surface low itself is somewhat elongated north to south, concentrated near the Brevard/Volusia county line based on buoy observations with another northeast of there visible on satellite. The mid level is more southwest of that.
Once in the Gulf there remains a chance for it to develop into the Gulf as a depression or Dexter, but depends on the state it leaves Florida in.
2:00PM EDT Update 14 July 2025
The area off Florida is now being tracked as Invest area 93L.
12:00PM EDT Update 14 July 2025
Organization of our Area of Interest Invest TBD is underway quite a bit quicker than most models have predicted, and doing so while still east of Florida. Recon has been tasked to head into the system tomorrow, but there may still be a flight later today.
While not typical, it is not at all unheard of for a developing tropical cyclone to cross Florida from east to west, into the Gulf, while strengthening, and those in and around the state may want to begin paying much closer attention as this system is likely to also be a copious rain-producing flood risk, regardless of designation.
Once in the Gulf, conditions there may become sufficiently beneficial for this one to become our first hurricane of the year. Stay tuned.
Ciel
11:30AM EDT Update 13 July 2025
The Area of Interest off the southeast coast has just been tentatively tasked for recon starting Monday. Modeling is increasingly looking favorable on this feature's chances for development and another "homegrown" style system could already be in the making.
While TC numbers during the first two months typically do not foretell how things will play out the rest of a season, they often are from non-tropical entities that acquire sub-tropical to tropical characteristics doing so close to land, which is where most of us live, which means potential impacts.
Occasionally, the broad global atmosphere conspires to make home-grown Atlantic systems considerably more possible than most years. In addition to what is likely to be Invest tagged shortly just off the southeast coast, some attention may also start to be paid to a small, but well-defined area of low pressure located about 250 miles east of the NC/Virginia border that has developed on the trailing end of an east-west oriented front and may be in the process of separating from its parent front.
We now have a Forecast Lounge up on the Area of Interest off the southeast, where we will be delving deeper into its model runs and such: 93L Lounge
Ciel
Original Update
The lemon area (20%) of the coast is being watched for potential weak development mid week. With models mixed on it, mostly weak, with the exception of the icon.
On satellite the area in question is coming from the convection off the southeast coast, which is expected to travel over Florida monday evening and enter the Gulf. Right now it's only a 20% development.
(Satellite photo from 8AM EDT Sunday 13 July 2025)
This means anywhere the convection passes over will see lots of rain into Florida, and it's likely this area will have a shot at development. It's plenty warm in the Gulf, shear may affect it somewhat. It'll be worth watching closely over the next few days to see how this area progresses. It's likely the area of storms off the Southeast will become an invest area either later today or tomorrow.
For now it's just something to monitor closely.
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CFHC
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Loc: East Central Florida
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Recon scheduled for Tuesday and possibly tomorrow.
Edited by MikeC (Sun Jul 13 2025 01:47 PM)
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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sea surface temperatures
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Melbourne Radar is out unexpectedly. (Jacksonville was for planned maintenance)
FTMMLB
MESSAGE DATE: SUN JUL 13 2025 5:35 PM EDT
THE MELBOURNE WSR-88D (KMLB) REMAINS DOWN DUE TO AN UNANTICIPATED
DISRUPTION. AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO ESTIMATION FOR WHEN IT WILL
RETURN TO SERVICE. PARTS ARE ON ORDER. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE
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CFHC
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Loc: East Central Florida
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recon for tomorrow
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, National Hurricane Center, MIAMI, FL.
1010 AM EDT MON 14 JULY 2025
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z JULY 2025
TCPOD NUMBER.....25-044
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (EAST OF FLORIDA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71
A. 15/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 15/1600Z
D. 30.0N 80.0W
E. 15/1730Z TO 15/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. LOW LEVEL INVEST
H. WRA ACTIVATION
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE MISSION INTO SUSPECT
AREA OFF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 29.0N 86.0W FOR 16/1800Z
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Ryan L
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I don't think the sea surface graphic is accurate, at least not for for the east coast for central FL. Ocean temps from April to now have consistently been 5 degrees below normal. Right now it's at 78.6 F at buoy 41113 and buoy 41009 is at 81.1F and the graphic above seems to show more like 86 which doesn't quite match. Buoy 41047 is at 84.2 F which is close to what is shown but that one is far off shore and further South than the others mentioned.
I think the Melbourne radar was likely knocked out by the thunderstorm that hit around 3-4PM EST yesterday. Gusts looked like they were hitting 50-60 mph in 2 separate bursts.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Radar showing the banding, dry north, sheared south, but it's starting to wrap around
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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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93L appears to be on the cusp of being classifiable as a TD this morning based on satellite-derived winds, IR, radar, as well as ship, buoy and land weather station reports. At a minimum, PTC Watches and Warnings could be coming for portions of Florida as soon as later this morning. Regardless of classification status, the greatest threat with our incipient tropical cyclone will likely be from its potential for flooding rain.
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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Not all of 93L is windless. Recently, NOAA Station PSTL1 - 8760922, located at the southwestern Pass-a-Loutre Wildlife Management Area in Louisiana where the Mississippi River enters the Gulf, recorded a sustained northwesterly wind of 40 knots gusting to 50 knots at an elevation of 20 meters, which is 10 meters above the standard measuring elevation. Adjusted down to 10, this would still be tropical storm force "at the surface."
While not forecast to get classified as 93L is still too disorganized, at times the disturbance could have TD-like features for up to several days.
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