CFHC Talkback For News Story #104:
Newest Talkback: 05:21 PM 09-20 EDT

TD#12 Reforms South of Cuba
08:04 PM EDT - 19 September 2000

And I just got back from a trip that took me longer than expected (not by choice).

We'll be tracking it, and more information will come soon...]

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for TD#12. From Michael Bryson.

Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
A nice animated Water Vapor Image
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #6 - #10 (of 47 total)
Double up? (#6)
Posted by: mike Location: Clearwater Beach
Posted On 09:08PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVQNRTPNQTY*)

Looks alot like Gordon. How weird would that be for this system to affect West Florida. Have 2 systems ever affected the same area and in such a short span of time before?
Camille (#7)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 09:13PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNQVS*)

A few facts on Camille since I was in the middle of it back in 69. My house on the beach in Biloxi is 20 feet above sea level, the storm surge at my house was 22 feet. The storm actually was supposed to go to Florida, we were told it would take a turn to the Northeast all day Sunday the night it hit... WRONG... Depending on who you talk to the winds were sustained at 175 mph+ with gusts to 200+.... This thing will not be no Camille.... period... Although its possible for it to take a similar track... botton line, Camille was noooo lady...have a nice night yall
"From-the-hip" prediction (#8)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 09:15PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (QRYNQQUNUSNQPY*)

Now that we have TD 12 again, with a forecast probability of becoming a named storm, I'm going to go out on a limb for once and say that the Gulf disturbance probably won't develop, for the following reasons:

1.) It seems to be moving north, into a region of higher westerly shear.

2.) I don't *think* there have ever been two TCs or named storms in the Gulf of Mexico at once. That being said, if one develops and makes it into the Gulf (12), the other system *probably* won't develop. I'll have to give a cursory check of this stat sometime, though.

I would have added "weaker convection" to the cons, but I couldn't rule out that the low just might be going through the regular alternating pattern of tropical convection.
Intrigueing Times no matter What Develops (#9)
Posted by: Mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 09:21PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQVSNQPX*)

These are intrigueing times in the tropics no matter what develops. The scientists are having a field day with new information. My only concern is how much rain to expect this weekend. Last weekend was a nice wash out. I think I would like to see another one. I have another good book to read.
GDFL (#10)
Posted by: John C (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Cocoa, FL ( Currently in San Antonio, Texas)
Posted On 09:23PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (RQVNVRNWXNSU*)

THe GDFL model has TD#12 a cat 2 hitting the same area as Gordon. Could it be? With the way this season has been going, it will not suprise me if there are TWO tropical systems in the Gulf at the same time. I guess we will find out.
sorry richie (#11)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 09:24PM 19-Sep-2000 with id (VSNSYNSVNWT*)

sorry richie,,,the weather you are experiencing there is not associated with td12,, maybe by later tomorrow night ,,,maybe.
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