CFHC Talkback For News Story #127:
Newest Talkback: 11:07 PM 10-02 EDT

Keith/Joyce
04:57 AM EDT - 02 October 2000

This morning Keith has been in a weird position. It has been half over land and half over water. And with not moving much at all last night, has had the land (and everone on it, unfortunately) take its toll on the hurricane's structure. It hasn't moved one bit, and still continues to pound Belize. It's future track is still projected by the National Hurricane Center to eventually head north over the peninsula and into the Gulf as a Tropical Storm. Keith's non-movement may be good for the US, but it's been a nightmare for the folks in Belize. So it's not the best solution.

Joyce is now projected to be a Tropical Storm in about 72 hours south of Cuba in the Western Caribbean, so we'll have that to watch as well. Any interaction between Keith and Joyce could make things interesting later down the road. We'll be watching.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.


NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for Isaac., Joyce, or Keith From Michael Bryson.
Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Other commentary at: Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center - Stormwarn2000 - SCOTTSVB's Hurricane Update Center - Jim Williams' Hurricane City - Gary Gray's Millennium Weather - Even More on our Links Page
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Defiant Visible Infrared More...
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.
Live Webcam image from Florida Emergency Management's Emergency Operations Center
Florida Emergency Management Activation Page / Situation Updates

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]


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Displaying Talkbacks #35 - #38 (of 38 total)

Joyce lives at least in the Dvorak World (#35)
Posted by: Gary (
http://†) Location: Hernando Beach fl.
Posted On 03:07PM 02-Oct-2000 with id (RPYNTNTPNRRS*)


TPNT KGWC 021825

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE

B. 02/1715Z (121)

C. 12.3N/6

D. 67.7W/0

E. FIVE/GOES8

F. T2.5/2.5/D0.5 25HRS -02/1715Z-

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI



49A/ PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPS .40 DEGREES FROM

THE LOG10 SPIRAL. FT BASED ON DT. PT SUPPORTS ANALYSIS. MET YIELDED

A T2.0.



KRAMER




Cuba (#36)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, Fl
Posted On 04:00PM 02-Oct-2000 with id (VTNRTTNQNQVT*)


There has been an area really catching my eye south of Cuba.This will be intresting to see what forms out of it.Also will have to watch whats left of Joyce........ Joe

Cuba (#37)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg, Fl
Posted On 04:06PM 02-Oct-2000 with id (VTNRTTNQNQVT*)


There is tons of rain over South Florida right now this extends all the way to just south of Cuba.I think something may try forming.Heads up Central Florida tomorrow looks like there could be lots of rain moving up from the South.

The Cuban Stuff (#38)
Posted by:
Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 07:07PM 02-Oct-2000 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNWW*)


Well let me give it a shot. A cool front actually did push through Florida last week and it stalled out across south Florida. We had a few pleasant days with lower humidity but not much change in temperature. Friday the front started to slide back to the north, but a non-tropical low developed just north of the northern Bahamas and this low moved north offshore over the weekend. I had expected that Friday night into Saturday were going to rather wet around here, but the Bahamian low, as it pulled out to the north, reinforced the high pressure over the peninsula and kept the stalled front to the south. Now for part two: Keith captured a large vorticity lobe (or maxima) and this concentration of energy rotated around the eastern flank of the hurricane and it is now heading northbound just south of Cuba. This mass of energy, now caught in the southerly flow, is beginning to over-ride the old frontal zone and is creating quite a bit of rainfall in south Florida and points southward. We've even had a few healthy tropical showers up here in Melbourne in the past few hours. Although chances for any significant development are probably small, this is the area that NHC felt that some development was possible. Even if a Depression does not form, the mass of clouds will be forced north northwestward and the southern two-thirds of the peninsula are likely to get a good soaking over the next couple of days. Hope that this helps.

While I'm at it, you guys and gals come up with some terrific links for data and data analysis - very much appreciated!
Cheers,
ED


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