National Hurricane Conference 2002 |
The National Hurricane Conference is going on this week here in Orlando, and one of the things to come out of it was the expectation of a rather average year (storm count wise), which I agree with. It's been a while since a Major Hurricane has hit Florida now, it'll be 10 years since Andrew this season. Complacency may have set in among many, and I fear this may be the case again. September 11th gave extra focus to Emergency Management, and I think they are about as reasonably prepared as the could be. The evacuation routes from the coastline are still very poor, and the road system in Central Florida can't handle normal work traffic well, much less a massive evacuation. They've talked about one-waying the main roads (I4/Turnpike/Beeline etc) during emergencies. But that requires a lot of manpower to make sure no "oopses" happen at the entrance on/off ramps. I expect a different hurricane season this year... This doesn't mean more or even more landfalls, just storms in different places than we have seen in the last two years. I actually expect fewer this year. Preperations for the new season are progressing slowly, but we'll get there. :) - [mac] |
new analogs
(#25) Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee, FL Posted On 01:56PM 07-Apr-2002 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNQYS*) |
gray's update changed the analog years somewhat, but not the overall strike pattern. basically follows the split recurve/due west thing we've been getting last few years. of course, getting stuck in a longwave pattern with an east coast ridge in the late summer can make all the difference in the world. it is noteworthy that late summer heatwaves on the east coast do tend to occur in el nino years, but more often in strong ones where activity is mitigated.
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Supporting HankFrank's comments...
(#26) Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie, LA Posted On 03:56PM 07-Apr-2002 with id (VSNQWNQWNQT*) |
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/hurrarchive.asp
Interestingly enough, in 1957, 3 storms hit the LA coast - all of them formed in the southern gulf and moved northward. In 1969, Camile hit Mississippi. 1953 and 1951 were mostly uneventful with the exception of a storm that hit the FL panhandle. I didn't look at any climatology from 51, 53, 57 and 69, but the tracking maps are available at the above link. Steve |
One correction...
(#27) Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie, LA Posted On 03:59PM 07-Apr-2002 with id (VSNQWNQWNQT*) |
Hazel also hit the GA/SC border (a rare landfall in that area).
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SST's
(#28) Posted by: Shawn Location: Pearland Posted On 05:22PM 07-Apr-2002 with id (RTNRTRNRSSNUS*) |
It looks like waters are already warm enough in the Caribbean.I wonder how soon the first dep. will form this year.Anyone want to take a stab at the date of the first one of 2002?
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We will see 4 hurricanes or more! wait and see
(#29) Posted by: John Location: South Florida Posted On 06:01PM 07-Apr-2002 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNQVX*) |
Atlantic hurricane seasons on record!
1912- Titanic 1912- Titanic 1914- 0 hurricanes 1925- 1 hurricane 1982- 2 hurricanes 1994- 3 hurricanes 2002- 4 hurricanes or more Increase in hurricanes expected If i am right ? Don't ask me. LOL !!!! (Click here)http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/index.html |
scientific observations
(#30) Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee, FL Posted On 11:34PM 07-Apr-2002 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNQYS*) |
Atlantic hurricane seasons on record
65 million BC k-t impact near chicxulub, mexico ad 1054 crab nebula supernova recorded 1908 tunguska event 1929 stock market crash 1964 kubrick movie dr. strangelove in theaters 1969 12 hurricanes 1980 9 hurricanes 1985 7 hurricanes 1992 4 hurricanes 1997 3 hurricanes 2002 2 or fewer hurricanes decrease in hurricanes expected! if i am right? the world makes no sense. by the way shawn two of the four analog seasons had may storms. able in 51 is particularly strange.. a cat 3 off hatteras in may? i keep wondering if that is some inside joke at the nhc. |
you crazy
(#31) Posted by: John Location: South Florida Posted On 07:47AM 08-Apr-2002 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNUW*) |
1914- 0 hurricanes
1925- 1 hurricane 1982- 2 hurricanes 1994- 3 hurricanes 1995- a very very activity!!! 1994 hurricane season June- no hurricane July- no hurricane Aug- 1 hurricane Sept- no hurricane Oct- no hurricane Nov- 2 hurricanes 1994 hurricane season looks like bomb !!!! because Hurricane season ends on November!!!! HankFrank, I don't understand you, I am very serious!!!!!!!!! |
HankFrank
(#32) Posted by: John Location: South Florida Posted On 07:50AM 08-Apr-2002 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNUW*) |
You are retared!!!
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????????
(#33) Posted by: Steve H. Location: palm bay, FL Posted On 07:53AM 08-Apr-2002 with id (QUUNQPTNRSYNQV*) |
I din't HankFrank was retired, I thought he was a student!
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Oh
(#34) Posted by: John Location: South Florida Posted On 07:59AM 08-Apr-2002 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNUW*) |
I know you won't see 3 or 2 hurricanes each year!!! You will lost!!!!
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years 2002 to 2200 or each year
(#35) Posted by: John Location: South Florida Posted On 08:11AM 08-Apr-2002 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNUW*) |
Atantic basin: When will we see 2 or 3 hurricanes?? LOL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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2002 Atlantic hurricane season
(#36) Posted by: John Location: South Florida Posted On 09:34AM 08-Apr-2002 with id (RPYNRTPNRRRNQSQ*) |
1912- Titanic
1914- 0 hurricanes 1925- 1 hurricane 1982- 2 hurricanes 1994- 3 hurricanes 2002- You will see 4 hurricanes or more You will see!!! |
Shawn (2nd Paragraph) A little Bastardi hint at the upcoming season...
(#37) Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metaire, LA Posted On 10:16AM 08-Apr-2002 with id (RPXNRTXNRSQNUX*) |
>>Notes and asides: The countdown has begun! The hurricane number from Doc Gray has dropped from 13 to 12 and I suspect it will be more like 10...
>>In any case, we will be seeing how the el Nino evolves how the spring pattern looks to see if it gives us a clue. There are already a couple of major points I will make, but you will have to wait until June for our hurricane forecast ( Hint: Much more even distribution of storms, and a much more random pattern than last years alleyway from the Caribbean and southeast gulf northeast. Gut feeling is Texas is the greatest threat area this season, but have to watch. Enjoy |
??????
(#38) Posted by: Nick Posted On 10:16AM 08-Apr-2002 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNWQ*) |
John...what the hell are you talking about
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John in South Florida...
(#39) Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metaire, LA Posted On 10:18AM 08-Apr-2002 with id (RPXNRTXNRSQNUX*) |
>>1912- Titanic
1914- 0 hurricanes 1925- 1 hurricane 1982- 2 hurricanes 1994- 3 hurricanes 2002- You will see 4 hurricanes or more You will see!!! You've been posting this every week or so. I'm stumped. What have 1912, 1914, 1925, 1982 and 1994 got to do with 2002? And who is actually going to see 4 hurricanes or more - the entire basin? Dump the code in favor of English lol Cheers. Steve |
echo
(#40) Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee, FL Posted On 02:41PM 08-Apr-2002 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNQYS*) |
steve's already mentioned this, but bastardi is talking about the more random distribution of storms this year, rather than them all following the same corridors. that and picking texas as the victim of the year. hear that shawn? if you dont have a surfboard, buy one. the better to ride the swells. personally i want to hear more about how the global circulation should take shape this summer. activity or no, if everything below 20N goes west and everything north of that recurves, it will just be a repeat of the last two seasons.
john in south florida, by the way.. i wasnt being serious. just having fun for a change. |
Now It's Texas!!
(#41) Posted by: Shawn Location: Pearland Posted On 03:52PM 08-Apr-2002 with id (RTNRTRNRSSNUS*) |
Oh,great!!! Now when I finally get some smarts and don't want a storm to come to Texas,this is when we seem to become Joe B.'s #1 target this year.The bad thing is that alot of his predictions,not all,but enough to take notice,come true.If this does happen,I guess you all will hear alot more from me this year than last.That should make everyone feel better...LOL!!!
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Cats and Dogs here today...
(#42) Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metaire, LA Posted On 03:59PM 08-Apr-2002 with id (RPXNRTXNRSQNUX*) |
check the radar - MASSIVE squall line blowing through wtih 35mph+ gusts. It must be springtime.
Steve |
Steve
(#43) Posted by: Shawn Location: Pearland Posted On 04:13PM 08-Apr-2002 with id (RTNRTRNRSSNUS*) |
That squall line that is blowing through your neck of the woods now was over in my area early this morning.It brought about 5 to 6 inches of rain with it.A few of the bayous couldn't handle it here.I hope it won't be that bad there.
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We're set for 2-5"...
(#44) Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metaire, LA Posted On 04:27PM 08-Apr-2002 with id (RPXNRTXNRSQNUX*) |
I think they will get more rain south of the city, but it looks like we'll see about 3. It started raining around 2:35 and should continue on until 6ish. Unfortunately, I planted some tomatoes on Saturday and didn't stake them. I'm hoping the wind's not going to knock the snot out of 'em. It's my own fault because I had the popsicle sticks to it.
Steve |
Florida is older than Texas!! LOL
(#45) Posted by: John Location: South Florida Posted On 04:38PM 08-Apr-2002 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNWR*) |
Florida became 27 state!!
Texas became 28 state!! |
Steve?????
(#46) Posted by: John Location: South Florida Posted On 06:01PM 08-Apr-2002 with id (QURNQVSNRPTNWS*) |
She died on my 3rd birthday! THAT'S ME !!!
(Click here)http://users.deltacomm/rainbowz/introduction.html |