CFHC Talkback For News Story #67:
Newest Talkback: 07:25 PM 08-22 EDT

Hurricane Debby
07:22 AM EDT - 22 August 2000

11AM Udpate:

The Bahamas has put up Hurricane Warnings for the Acklins, Crooked, Inaguas, Ragged, Turks, Caicos, and Mayanguana Islands. (Most of the SE Bahamas)

Debby is still a minimal hurricane, but shows signs of strengthening now. The track will take it oh so close offshore north of Puerto Rico. The thinking for the remainder of the future track remains unchanged from the original Update.

Original Update:

Right now Hurricane Debby is over the northeastern Caribbean islands. Very near St. Maarten now and still moving West Northwest. God bless those in the islands, weather the storm well.

Hurricane Watches are now up for the extreme Southeast Bahamas.

What of the future? It's still a little questionable, and note it go either way from here, but my thinking puts it continuing West northwest and passing Hispaniola just to the north (but close) and offshor a bit to the Northeast coast of Cuba late Thursday and approaching South Florida on Friday. Caveats here include, not turning north and going into the Gulf, and turning north affecting Central Florida or further up the SE coast. The most likely includes an approach to South Florida and possibly turning up the state once within. Models however are leaning toward the south. So the Gulf scenario has a decent chance too. However, past the point of "near Florida" it becomes speculation to the Nth order.

How strong will it be? This depends a lot on how much, if at all, it goes through the larger islands (like PR and Hispaniola). If it does, it will be weaker, if it does not it will most likely slow down Tomorrow or Thursday and be allowed to strengthen. I have no idea what type of system Debby will be when it approaches Florida. It has the potential to be a major, but I'm not totally convinced of that yet.

Debby will affect Florida in some way somewhere during Friday and this weekend. Know this, and plan for this. I realize that is a broad statement, but it's impossible to say any more with confidence yet. And listen to local Emergency Management, Media, and other official sources. You can help us out by letting us know what you hear via local media or anything by leaving a comment here to help seperate information from misinformation. (A lot of it happens when an impending storm approaches)

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Debby (Good Forecast Track Graphic)

StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Live Radio (RealAudio) from Antigua
Nice Satellite Image of Atlantic (IR Colorized)

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [jc]


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Displaying Talkbacks #9 - #16 (of 29 total)

Watches for Florida? (#9)
Posted by: Richie
Posted On 10:02AM 22-Aug-2000 with id (QVUNQVQNSNQT*)


Has anyone heard anything regarding possible watches for Florida in the future? Would they go up Wed. p.m.?

eye wall (#10)
Posted by: jimmy
Posted On 10:06AM 22-Aug-2000 with id (RQVNWWNQUWNR*)


on the latest visable shot, there appears to be a possible small eye wall forming on the far western part of the cdo. Does anyone else see this?

Florida Watches/Warnings (#11)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 10:16AM 22-Aug-2000 with id (QRNWWNQTUNQYW*)


Hello Richie
As it looks right now and watches for Florida may be posted some time late Wednesday with warnings sometime Thursday if there needed at all. Nothing is in stone yet!! BUT!!! I believe they will happen(opinion only)...

changes in track (#12)
Posted by:
alan Location: orlando
Posted On 10:27AM 22-Aug-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)


I didn't mean a change in the short term track. I just think the track at 72 hours will be more north than what the NHC has been saying.

Hmmmmmm... (#13)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee, Fl
Posted On 10:29AM 22-Aug-2000 with id (RPUNRTRNRRXNSQ*)


I have to admit that it is looking a little more likely that Debby will impact Florida. I'm still crossing my fingers for a northward turn and shimy up the coast and away and nothing direct. I shudder to think what Debby might get up to if her forward speed slows a bit and she hits that very warm water near Florida and Cuba. Truthfully, my biggest worry is a possible knife cut up the middle of the state. That would really spread emergency services thin.

PURE CONJECTURE (#14)
Posted by: GREG
Posted On 10:33AM 22-Aug-2000 with id (RPXNVQNRRWNSP*)


AS MY SUBJECT TITLE INFERS...WHAT DO I KNOW....BUT HERE GOES. WATER VAPOR LOOPS WOULD SEEM TO INDICATE TO THIS TRACKER THE STORM SLOWING DOWN FORWARD SPEED BY LATE EVENING EARLY MORNING AND STAYING SOMEWHAT NORTH OF HISPANIOLA-THEREFORE NOT HAVING STRENGTH SAPPED. A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE TRAJECTORY COULD OCCUR TO THE WSW TRACK PUTTING AN AREA SOUTH OF WEST PALM BEACH AT RISK FOR SOME LEVEL OF LANDFALL WITH A RIDE UP THE FLORIDA COAST AND SPOTTING JUST OFF THE COAST BETWWEN DAYTONA AND JACKSONVILLE. COULD EVENTUALLY SEE ANOTHER LANDFALL AROUND CHARLESTON S.C. OR NORTH. I JUST SEE A WEEKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH CONTRIBUTING TO THE EAST COAST RIDE. UNFORTUNATELY A RIDE UP THE COAST WOULD DAMAGE ALOT OF SHORELINE. HOPE I'M WRONG AND THE EAST COAST AND GULF ALL STAY CLEAR. MAYBE IF SHE SLOWS DOWN ENOUGH THIS COULD HAPPEN.

Gulf Stream (#15)
Posted by: Brian Location: Hollywood, Florida
Posted On 10:44AM 22-Aug-2000 with id (QSWNURNRPPNRQQ*)


Well, the models have split, leaving the TPC/NHC in a black hole. It appears that once Debby enters into the waters between S. Fla, Cuba, and the Turks and Caicos, it becomes nothing short of speculation. With all the variation in the models, a negotiated position places it on top of S. Florida. I am beginning to lean toward the presumption that Debby will slow dramatically once in this area. Being that I am in agreement with Snonut's page, I see at least a (3) or (4) jogging it's way, causing predicatability to become rather questionable do in large part to her strength. This storm will begin to greatly resemble Andrew in it's small tight physical characteristics within the next 60 hours, watch and see.

South Florida Water Management (#16)
Posted by:
alan Location: orlando
Posted On 11:08AM 22-Aug-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)


I just heard from someone who was at the South Florida Water Management District offices in Osceola County. They were told that it was time to start buttoning up because the official forecast past three days had Debby entering the state at West Palm Beach and then leaving the state near Daytona Beach.
As he was leaving, the offices were putting up the hurricane shudders.
Also, the new advisory has Debby about 100 miles off the tip of Florida Friday at 11 pm heading NW towards West Palm Beach as I said before.

Shutters not shudders (#17)
Posted by:
alan Location: orlando
Posted On 11:12AM 22-Aug-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)


I guess I should learn to spell



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