CFHC Talkback For News Story #99:
Newest Talkback: 04:52 AM 09-17 EDT

Gordon
10:53 AM EDT - 16 September 2000

update 2:30: Tropical Storm Warnings in effect from Bonito Beach to Suwanee River.
update Noon: Recon has found Gordon's pressure to be 986mb. A drop of 6mb. Gordon is strengthening.

Sorry for the Headline mistake. Gordon is still a Tropical Storm with 65mph winds.  Hurricane watches have been extended Suwanee River to Apalachicola.  Intensification is expected and Gordon should be a Hurricane soon. The NHC still feels it will landfall around the Big Bend, but that is subject to change. I still feel the track will move more east. What do you think?

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for TD#11. From Michael Bryson.

Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
A nice animated Water Vapor Image
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [jc]

Show All Comments | Show Next 14 Comments
Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #14 (of 56 total)
CLUELESS (#1)
Posted by: Richie Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posted On 11:17AM 16-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNUW*)

In the past 3 hours the storm has moved .2 North and .5 East and they call that NE. In my book that is called ENE. On top of that they move the watches north instead of south. What is going on? I guess they want another Irene. Remember 1994, Gordon comes ashore near Ft. Myers.
Agree (#2)
Posted by: John C. (http://www.flhurricane.com) Location: Cocoa, FL
Posted On 11:19AM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNXY*)

The NHC must not be telling us everything, because I just don't see it.
Info Doesn't Jive (#3)
Posted by: Debbie Location: PSJ, Florida
Posted On 11:20AM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNSW*)

I have a question--why would TWC state Gordon was moving NNE when it moved 2 degrees north and 5 degrees east? Wouldn't that be more like ENE? Also, how come "cold fronts" push Atlantic storms eastward but somehow Gordon can push through them in the gulf
Because.. (#4)
Posted by: Jim F. (http://flhurricane.com/jfaul/) Location: Ft. Lauderdale
Posted On 11:23AM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPXNVQNQQUNY*)

They are not independent thinkers. They only repeat what the NHC tells them. It doesn't matter that the NHC track record is awful. I agree with John..this thing is going alot farther east than they are telling people.
Head Line Mistake (#5)
Posted by: John C. (http://www.flhurricane.com) Location: Cocoa, FL
Posted On 11:23AM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNXY*)

This is why I made the headline mistake:

000
WTNT41 KNHC 161438
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 16 2000

RECENT AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT GORDON IS MOVING ABOUT 035/08
KNOTS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AHEAD A
DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST THEREFORE...GORDON SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK
UNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS A LITTLE
BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE GFDL AND THE FSU EXPERIMENTAL SUPERENSEMBLE
AND CLOSE TO THE UKMET. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
ACCORDINGLY. IN ADDITION...DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND ABOUT 100 N MI
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THEREFORE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WAS
NECESSARY FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

THE CLOUD PATTERN IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING AND THE RECON REPORTED A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 992 MB AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 68 KNOTS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT IDEAL FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.
HOWEVER...INTENSITY GUIDANCE MAKES GORDON A HURRICANE AND SO DOES
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

IT IS A BIT EARLY TO FOCUS ON A PARTICULAR LANDFALL LOCATION. ALL
INTERESTS FROM MISSISSIPPI TO FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR GORDON.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1500Z 23.9N 86.1W 55 KTS
12HR VT 17/0000Z 25.0N 85.4W 65 KTS
24HR VT 17/1200Z 27.0N 84.6W 70 KTS
36HR VT 18/0000Z 28.8N 83.7W 75 KTS
48HR VT 18/1200Z 31.0N 82.5W 40 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT 19/1200Z 36.0N 79.5W 30 KTS...INLAND

What is going on??
future of Gordon (#6)
Posted by: Alex K
Posted On 11:25AM 16-Sep-2000 with id (VSNTRNQTQNXP*)

If Gordon really is moving more ene that might allow the storm to move through Florida and into the Atlantic. If that did happen would it ride up the east coast?
Info (#7)
Posted by: kandis Location: deltona
Posted On 11:32AM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPWNSPNUSNQYY*)

First I just want to say I love this site. I tell everyone I know how good you all are at really looking at the models and really tell it like it is.
Now with all the talk about it coming more east, what are the chances that it could come our way(deltona) and what kind of intensity could we be looking at.
Any info would be much appreciated for our preparation in the deltona/daytona beach area.

Thanks again for all your hard work.
ene (#8)
Posted by: troy (http://†ÿ€©@hè) Location: titusville,fl
Posted On 11:37AM 16-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRTNQQSNQPR*)

i too was puzzled by the ne movemnet ( actually refered to as nne at the 11 am twc update)- .5 to the east .2 to the north.

my only guess with that is they want to see a trend with this direction a few more hours before the change their track and direction again. which to a degree is understandable b/c a constantly changing track may cause people to ignore any warning, but, on the other hand, even a 3 foot surge will but water into the downdown tampa bay area.

the track with irene last year changed almost hourly. i say its headed a bit more east-



Weather Report (#9)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 11:51AM 16-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQSRNRST*)

Hello All,
I know have light rain and thunder winds 5 mph from the southeast Peak gust 9 mph(last hour) Pressure 29.99 or 1015.5 mb Temperature 83 dewpoint 77. Dark clouds building to the southwest.
Gordon (#10)
Posted by: Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Somewhere in Tenn. Mountains
Posted On 12:10PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRURNQWNVS*)

Ack, figures the one time I leave and get to a place with mega slow net access a hurricane forms. I cannot update the site from here, so John will continue to do updates.

Good luck W. Coast of Florida!
latest vortex data... note pressure fall (#11)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 12:13PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYTNRPW*)

URNT12 KNHC 161503
VORTEX DATA MESSAGEA. 16/1502Z
B. 24 DEG 03 MIN N (24.05 N)
86 DEG 09 MIN W (86.15 W)

C. 850 MB 1310 M
D. 60 KT
E. 155 DEG 35 NM
F. 216 DEG 54 KT
G. 161 DEG 29 NM
H. EXTRAP 986 MB
I. 17 C/ 1554 M
J. 22 C/ 1535 M
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/8O.
0.5/2 NM
P. AF985 0811A GORDON OB 14

MAX FL WIND 67 KT NE QUAD 1308Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 850MB. SFC CTR 170/09.

Note pressure of 986!!!


Heavy rain band moving thru (#12)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 12:19PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQSSNRTV*)

Hello All,
Well the first really heavy rain band moving thru as I write winds have gusted to 15 mph. Wind increasing slowly.
forecast track (#13)
Posted by: Alan Location: Orlando
Posted On 12:24PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (QVYNQSYNQYQNRTR*)

I have to agree with all of you. Hurricanes have always followed the water vapor flow and there is a distinct eastern movement to the water vapor flow from about the bottom of the panhandle across the state. I can't believe that it's going to break through the front, unless they believe it's going to be a major hurricane, and that is doubtful. I believe it will enter the state in the Bradenton/Sarasota area head through the state and leave the state between Cocoa and Daytona.
On a side note, it's really amazing how there is almost an apathetic view of this system in Orlando. Usually, whenever there is a hurricane close to Orlando in the Atlantic, that's all the stations are talking about. With this one, it's barely the lead story on the newscasts. No one seems to think it will affect Orlando, but taking the course I have put, it would make it a strong tropical storm in Orlando with it being a 90 mph hurricane when it hits. If it intensifies more, then we could have hurricane force winds and no one will be prepared.
Storm Intensifying (#14)
Posted by: Richie Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posted On 12:30PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNQUQ*)

Recon has found a lower pressure by 6 mb and both the visible and IR satellites show a much more concentric system. Will see a hurricane shortly.
pressure drop (#15)
Posted by: troy (http://†ÿ€©@hè) Location: titusville,fl
Posted On 12:35PM 16-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRTNQQSNQPR*)

the latest pressure drop is similar to the drop last night that led to the increased strenght and naming of the storm. 6mb in an hour while not being a bottom falling out situation is still a sign of healthy, intensifying storm.

whatever track it takes, a yucky, rainy weekend is in store for florida.
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