MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Sep 24 2004 03:36 AM
Jeanne Track

Short Update tongiht,

Jeanne remains on track to affect Florida sometime this weekend. Hurricane Watches will likely go up sometime in the morning for the Florida east coast.



Jeanne has a lot of dry air surrounding it, which I think will keep the strengthening in check, at least for a bit, but it's been holding itself together well so far. The exact track is still fairly uncertain, but it appears that it will affect Florida this weekend.

Jeanne's track will be slow and very curved (or rounded) so the track maps aren't too good in showing this particular aspect of the storm.

Ivan appears to be a huge rainmaker for Texas, it'll be interesting to see what type of rains they get there. Stay safe there folks.

If you find yourself in a watch area tomorrow, start to prepare again in earnest.

Event Related Links
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
All Current Hurricane Local Statements

Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time
Karl Models -- This image animated over time
Lisa Models -- This image animated over time
Jeanne Sphagehtti Model from BoatUS/Hurricane Alley
Ivan Plots from Weather Underground
Jeanne Plots from Weather Underground
Jeanne Satelllite Image with track/radar Overlays

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Jacksonville.
Melbourne

General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps

Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info


NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 24 2004 03:54 AM
Dry Jeanne

Lookin' a little thin, don't you think?

LI Phil
(User)
Fri Sep 24 2004 03:56 AM
Re: Dry Jeanne

However do you mean...

Kent
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 24 2004 04:01 AM
Re: Dry Jeanne

The consensus of opinion is that Jeanne has weakened a bit because since she has been sitting out there so long she has churned up some deeper water which tends to be cooler. She should weaken slightly by a.m. but then as she gets closer to the Bahamas she will get warmer wate and strengthen a bit maybe. Once over the Bahamas the water gets even warmer...from 80 degrees to 86 degrees with some pockets reaching up to 90 degrees in some areas. This is when we should see a little more strengthening of the storm. Is that right?

cjzydeco
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 24 2004 04:05 AM
Re: Jeanne Track

Watching the animated version of the Jeanne forecast plots over time is just hilarious. What a wicked crazy storm this has been! The poor computers running these models must be ready to blow a circuit!

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 24 2004 04:08 AM
Re: Dry Jeanne

Quote:

Everyone is reading the track as a straight line point to point. The track will actually be a gradual turn from W to NW between those points right along the Florida coastline, so it looks as if it doesn't come ashore until it hits the Cape Canaveral area. This is NOT true, a rounded track will show it makes landfall down near Jupiter to Stuart/PSL area. I wish the NHC or Skeetobite or anyone could show those rounded turns instead of straight lines. It is especially important in this case as the storm is turning right at the coastline. Our local TV station actually showed this correctly. Does anyone see what I am saying?




Mike, thanks for someone finally seeing what I was saying in my previous quote above. The landfall point is way off without a curved/rounded track line.

Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Sep 24 2004 04:10 AM
Canadian in 60 hours

RIght on my forecast track and prediction... the CMC was relatively good with Frances and Ivan.... and has it going inland just north of the Space Coast... we'll see how long this holds up..

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/695_100.gif

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 24 2004 04:12 AM
Some Humor You Can't Refuse

Here's some humor: I turned 39 today (for the first time) and now I can officially say that I have arthritis.

Some more: at my oldest son's game last weekend, the "waterboy" who was carrying the 2-ton water sprayers that I use to spray down the kids (and coaches as needed) dropped the doggone thing on my toe! OUCH! However, it didn't really hurt until later on......
While I was watching the Miss USA pageant and decided to put my old modeling moves into play...and while twirling around the kitchen like an elephant, I missed my mark (by like a 1/2 mile) and promptly stubbed aforementioned toe on the refrigerator.
Now I know why my father didn't name me after his sister:

GRACE



(I just copied and pasted this. from the last thread..I'M A BIG KID NOW!)

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 24 2004 04:14 AM
Thomas's 2 cents

Today, I once again readjust the landfall further south. I now predict a landfall between Palm Beach and Vero Beach (similar to Frances but faster) with a WNW-NW track across the Florida Peninsula, then exiting into the Gulf Of Mexico between Tarpon Springs and Bayport. I expect landfall on Sunday morning as a CAT 2 cyclone. Why this track adjustment? Strong blocking high pressure to the north over the weekend. Landfall intensity is still a tough call but I will stick with a CAT 2 for now.

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 24 2004 04:16 AM
Re: Dry Jeanne

Quote:

Lookin' a little thin, don't you think?



Huh? Are you saying that Jeanne is drying up or are you saying she's becoming sexier? I'm not sure what the heck you're talking about. Some dry air got in there, but she actually looks quite healthy.

I definitely wouldn't refer to her as "anorexic".

LI Phil
(User)
Fri Sep 24 2004 04:18 AM
Re: Thomas's 2 cents

Richie (and fellow Yankee fan)

When did your buddy make that forecast...I only say this because one of those you posted was like 11 hours old....whatever he says only adds to the mix and should be considered along with the official NHC forecast...but they need to be fairly recent to have any value...

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 24 2004 04:21 AM
Re: Dry Jeanne

Quote:

Quote:

Lookin' a little thin, don't you think?



Huh? Are you saying that Jeanne is drying up or are you saying she's becoming sexier? I'm not sure what the heck you're talking about. Some dry air got in there, but she actually looks quite healthy.

I definitely wouldn't refer to her as "anorexic".


[flame suit]
Look at the WV loop...the secret gel is working! A few more loads of the stuff and you'll be able to cure jerky out there!
[/flame suit]

Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Sep 24 2004 04:23 AM
Re: Thomas's 2 cents

wow WXMAN.... even has it going into the GOM, that takes balls, must be a navy man listening to the NOGAP.... hey, its all about the ridge, we all know that... but what we all DON"T know is how strong and how far south it will go... and when will it start to weaken... you figure out that, you win.... big time bonus points....

I still like the CMC model, its done well for me with both my Ivan and Frances predictions... I'm sure Mr. Giella is a hell of a lot smarter than me, but I don't buy the GOM idea at all...then again he just might nail it this time... we'll soon see for sure

LI Phil
(User)
Fri Sep 24 2004 04:27 AM
Re: Thomas's 2 cents

I'll await WXMANs reply...but I don't see this as a GOM storm...

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 24 2004 04:29 AM
Re: Thomas's 2 cents

Look at this loop: (please)

WV Loop

You can almost see how the high is building in to the west...near the Carolinas..and if you look at the GOM, you can see how that moisture is elongated N to S and Jeanne looks like she's doing the pushing. And she's definitely on a west course right now. Looking pretty healthy.

Sleep? What's sleep? I haven't slept well since August.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 24 2004 04:33 AM
Re: Dry Jeanne

I think the 11pm discussion covered this pretty clearly. If you go look at the GOES Floater WV loop, you will now see some purples south of the center.

p.s. You don't have to wear a flame-retardant suit. I'm not a torch-wielding witch.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 24 2004 04:39 AM
Re: Dry Jeanne

I don't like purples. I like orange and white better.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 24 2004 04:40 AM
Re: Dry Jeanne

I don't like purples, either. But they're there.....and TWC just showed another loop with MORE purples.

Is it just me or are they more fascinated with Ivan than Jeanne?

LI Phil
(User)
Fri Sep 24 2004 04:41 AM
Yay! Nite y'all

Tomorrow (today, if anyone is actually looking at their timepieces...)

We'll have a much better idea of Jeanne's plans...


No more bonus points will be awarded...Ricreig, if you are out there...GET SOME FRIGGIN SLEEP, you'll need it.

When did we do this last? Like a week ago?

Stick with CFHC,, still dying to see that Newseek or PC World article mentioning this site....

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 24 2004 04:44 AM
Re: Dry Jeanne

Quote:

p.s. You don't have to wear a flame-retardant suit. I'm not a torch-wielding witch.



Yeah well, you could hit me with a rock...I'm on Socrum Lp and I-4.

Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 24 2004 04:45 AM
Re: Thomas's 2 cents

I believe latest OOZ UKMET and NOGAPS have this thing going across the state near Lake Okeechobee and then crossing the state to the WNW/NW with second landfall into panhandle. GFS hasnt change much since last run.. Candian seemed to move to the right close to GFS.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 24 2004 04:51 AM
Re: Dry Jeanne

Quote:



Yeah well, you could hit me with a rock...I'm on Socrum Lp and I-4.



I don't throw rocks at people. They usually boomerang and end up knocking me unconscious.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 24 2004 04:52 AM
Re: Thomas's 2 cents

Sorry if this is a stupid question, but are those the latest runs of UKMET and NOGAPS? or were they figured into the previous track?

Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 24 2004 04:56 AM
Re: Thomas's 2 cents

These are the latest runs.. 00Z 0924

NOGAPS - https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wx...;dtg=2004092400

UKMET - http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 24 2004 04:57 AM
Re: Thomas's 2 cents

Yeah... gutsy call by Ritchie for a Frances repeat and GOM visit.

It's all about timing now, which is the fly in the ointment. Assuming the ridge peaks and subsequently weakens as projected, the location of Jeanne in relation to that event is key to the northward turn.

Right now Jeanne is moving too slow at 6 mph. She is now moving dead west, right on track... Port St. Lucie is 580 miles away. At the current speed of 6 mph we're talking 96+ hours till landfall. The NHC predicts an increase in speed, but it's going to take a real kick in the butt (doubling her speed) to get Jeanne to make landfall in the projected timeframe of a little over 48 hours.

If she doesn't pick up speed soon, I think Jeanne will still be off the FL coast when the NHC is predicting that the ridge weakens and allows the northward turn...

AdmittedHacker

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 24 2004 05:03 AM
Re: Dry Jeanne

Daniel...look at this loop...looks like she's reorganizing herself...check the outflow on all sides...

Jeanne Coming Back to Life?

Do you see how that H is shoving her to the west?

Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 24 2004 05:08 AM
Re: Dry Jeanne

I think this thing may make land fall earlier than expected maybe 48 - 60 hours.. Seems the models are leaning this way too.. or some of them..

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 24 2004 05:13 AM
Re: Thomas's 2 cents

Wow..they haven't really changed that much. CMC Model (In my humble opinion) does not seem to catch the more westward movement...has it going more WNW or NW than west. Are you seeing this too?

Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 24 2004 05:14 AM
Re: Thomas's 2 cents

Yep.. Dont think it has a good grasp on the ridge..

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 24 2004 05:15 AM
Jeanne

It will be interesting to note the forward speed on the 2AM update...doesn't look like she's crawling along to me.

But what do I know?

cjzydeco
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 24 2004 05:18 AM
Re: Jeanne

Yeah, mesmerized staring at the WV loop, which always leads one to speculate, but def seems to be scooting off to the west with a little more oomph.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 24 2004 05:19 AM
Landfall Timing

I'm getting this queasy feeling that Jeanne is (literally) going to pull a fast one on us...I don't sense that same urgency that we had with Frances...and we had a lot more time with Frances than it looks like we're going to have with Jeanne.

It's almost like, "Well, okay, we'll talk about evacuations tomorrow, and we'll see what happens, and....."

I don't like the feeling I'm getting.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 24 2004 05:22 AM
Re: Jeanne

Well, the good news is that we'll find out if she's sped up at all in less than an hour.

The bad news is that we'll probably stay up til 5 to see if she's sped up after that, LOL.

There is no WAY I can sleep with these things lurking in the backyard....a nap here and there yeah...but a good night's sleep? FUGHEDABOUDIT......

cjzydeco
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 24 2004 05:23 AM
Re: Landfall Timing

I don't think we have any adrenaline left. I managed to make it to the store tody to get the few things that needed to be restocked, but I just couldn't motivate myself to start putting up those darned shutters! Guess I should forego the 2am update and get some zzzz's so I can wake up and get the fortress ready.

javlin
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 24 2004 05:35 AM
Re: Offically said Ya'll are Wiped

Now I am reading and it is late 12:30 CDT for me 1:30 EDT for ya'll.Now I might be loop'in alittle,you guys need to hit the sack.Make another of it tomorrow,you guys need some shut eye.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 24 2004 05:36 AM
Re: Jeanne

Everyone remember the discussions come out about 9 hours after where they see the models. For example 11pm forcast was from 2pm this afternoon on the 18z run. The Oz runs that we see now = 8pm which mean they will adjust the track and discuss it for the 5am adv.

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Fri Sep 24 2004 05:38 AM
Re: Jeanne Track

Not much time for an update, but I'll go with what I have. No reason to change the philosophy from last night's update, except to change preferences on the future track. Jeanne should move W to WNW towards Florida at a steady clip the next couple of days, then slow down and turn northward along the coast. The storm may not come inland, but it should brush by ever-so-closely to the coast to result in tropical storm force winds felt along most of the shore. Contrary to a prior NHC discussion, under this or their forecasted track, the coastline would NOT be in the right quadrant of the storm.

Still a chance for the ridge to break down to a small degree, but not enough to spare some landmass. Might see the storm continue northward once inland if the ridge does not break down, i.e. come in near Charleston and then keep going north instead of turning along the coast. The extent of the ridge is such to allow this possibility; further, the forward progress of the longwave trough in the west-central US is being slowed as a new wave develops near Oklahoma/Kansas.

We'll likely see hurricane watches up for Florida in the morning. Whether these get changed to TS warnings or hurricane warnings on Saturday remains to be seen dependent upon the future track. It'll have to stay a ways offshore, though, to only see TS warnings (erring on the side of caution instead of necessarily thinking hurricane force winds won't impact the coast).

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 24 2004 05:45 AM
Re: Jeanne Track

969mb of jeanne

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 24 2004 05:50 AM
Re: Jeanne

Okay, so based on that info Scott, do you think they will adjust the track to the east or the west?

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 24 2004 05:53 AM
Re: Jeanne

They will nudge it back to the NE to some degree cause the GFDL also went to the right. Really matters on the lead forcaster giving the discussion. I dont see the big curve. Im in line with a blend of the Nogaps and Ukmet with more of a turn once inland to the NNW-N near Orlando.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 24 2004 05:55 AM
Re: Jeanne

Clark do you know if they got the gulf stream jet out there tonight to put the data into the OZ models? I havent heard anything and my sources both say yes and no. Great huh?

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 24 2004 06:00 AM
Re: Jeanne

Okay..gotcha. At this time, I think they're splitting hairs and I don't think they have that much time to work this thing. So, as the 2am advisory says, the watches will go up at 5am, then I guess they will have to start evacuating pretty darned quickly.

I'm with you on the NNW/N turn after it comes inland. I just don't see that H giving it much room to move north, and she's starting to move along (even just 1mph faster) quicker so I think that Jeanne's going to win the battle.

Didn't we go through this same exact scenario with Frances??? Turn to the north, skirt the coast, than BAM! Door slammed shut and she came inland and exited just above Tampa Bay.

Maybe it's deja vu.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 24 2004 06:05 AM
Re: Jeanne

Well Jeanne moved 24.7 miles west in 3 hours.. or a little over 8 mph. NHC says she is moving @ 10 mph. Landfall is 560 miles away... she's not going to make it in 48 hours at this speed. We need to see 12 to 13 mph for that to happen. Otherwise Jeanne will still be in the Atlantic as the ridge weakens... so there may still be some hope to avoid a landfall.

Let's see what tomorrow holds.

AdmittedHacker

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 24 2004 06:05 AM
Re: Jeanne

Well you see the flow in the gulf,,,,well Ivan continued more wnw then NW into the trough over the plains and its lifting out to some degree. Reinforcing pulse will dive down into the plains tomorow and will push it more to the east. I just dont see the immediate turn to the NNW. If it does skirt the coast it will be because it will turn wnw over the Bahamas and then go more NW-NNW along the coast. The models that turn it so quickly within 6hours show a strong southerly flow over florida, I dont think it will turn that sharp at first.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 24 2004 06:09 AM
Re: Jeanne

Also since recon wasnt out there since 24 hrs ago,,,, The pressure probably went up to 972 (abouts), Now its gone back down to 969mb. Not saying this happend but it looks better off then it did 6 hrs ago. Sats give us a pretty good guess at the mb that it shows us but recon is the overall best of course.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 24 2004 06:11 AM
Re: Jeanne

Shes about 45-54hrs from landfall unless she turns more wnw early on and goes more N. Right now saying 10pm-4am sunday. She should move up to 12mph

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 24 2004 06:26 AM
Re: Jeanne

Now is that funny as hell. I just noticed it. Look at the Jeanne tropical suite models. Its on the CFHC front page link. See where it says below.....NHC Advisories and county Emergency Management Statements Supercede this product. This graphic should complement, not replace NHC discussions. Then it says, If anything on this graphic causes confusion, just ignore the entire product. NOW THAT IS FUNNY..lmfao why do they even show it then????? LOL

BeachBum
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 24 2004 06:50 AM
Re: Dry Jeanne

Quote:

The landfall point is way off without a curved/rounded track line.


In the last thread I posted a link to the CURVED NRL track .

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 24 2004 06:53 AM
Re: Jeanne

Actually, she's moving at 7mph or 10km/hr. I would expect to see a continuing trend of forward speed like we did with Ivan...the NHC is pretty good at these things, if they say she's going to speed up I bet by 11am today she's moving at 12-13 mph.
As for the northward turn, we'll just have to wait and see. My eyes hurt, the sats are down and I need to sleep.
Look for bumps and bruises along the way...I believe that Frances took her sweet time after the Bahamas and the models had her turning to the north almost to the very end.
I'm not saying that Jeanne will do this, I'm just saying that it's a possiblility.
Back in the morning. I wouldn't be surprised to see that it's started another loop-de-loop ................

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 24 2004 07:00 AM
Models

The models seem to be split...with NOGAPS and UKMET being the more consistent in bringing it across the state, and the others on the state, offshore, onshore, etc.

The CMC 00z run is not one I'm impressed with...it's not picking up the more westerly movement that we've seen for almost 5 hours now.
I would think that they would have to almost split the forecast right down the middle since they're not all in agreement. And I think that has a lot to do with the High/Ridge/whatchamacallit.

Okay, now I'm REALLY going to bed.

LadyStorm
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 24 2004 09:33 AM
My thoughts on Jeanne

Here is my forcast for Jeanne. She will enter Florida at Merrit Island at 100 mph. She will then take I95 north and exit at Palm Coast out to the Atlantic and then continue NNE into North Carolina. My first forcast, lets see how accurate this one is......

SkeetoBiteAdministrator
(Master of Maps)
Fri Sep 24 2004 10:33 AM
Re: Jeanne Track

Updated maps



Full size available at www.skeetobite.com

Note: We will be experimenting with curved paths instead of point to point track lines. Limitations of our software may delay this upgrade, but we'll figure it out!

LadyStorm
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 24 2004 10:38 AM
Re: Jeanne Track

I love your maps don't get me wrong, but you have Jeanne as a direct hit on my house!!!!!! Can we change that map a bit? .....:(

MaryAnn

Quote:

Updated maps



Full size available at www.skeetobite.com

Note: We will be experimenting with curved paths instead of point to point track lines. Limitations of our software may delay this upgrade, but we'll figure it out!



OrlandoDan
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 24 2004 10:50 AM
Re: Jeanne Track

Recent infrared seems to show the deep convection increasing after a weakining over the nightime hours. We are shell-shocked here in Orlando. The slightest change to the track a little west will have this going right over Orlando.

recmod
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 24 2004 10:57 AM
Re: Jeanne Track

Those Skeetobite maps are awesome..BUT>>>>. don't place emphasis on linking a straight line from one forecast point to the next. The hurricane center themselves cautioned against this:
Quote from the 5pm discussion:
"USERS ARE CAUTIONED TO NOT FOCUS ON THE SPECIFIC FORECAST POINTS
DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...THE LARGE SIZE OF THE HURRICANE...AND
BECAUSE JEANNE COULD TAKE A MORE ROUNDED PATH NEAR LANDFALL THAN
IMPLIED BY SIMPLY CONNECTING THE 48 AND 72 HOUR FORECAST POINTS"

This would make a landfall MUCH further south on the Florida coast than the apparent St Augustine strike as viewed on Skeetobite's map (possibly the Melbourne area, followed by a scrape up the coast ala David in 1979)

--Lou

OrlandoDan
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:04 AM
Re: Jeanne Track

NRL's "rounded" track has been updated with the 5 am advisory:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ATL_11L.JEANNE_ssmi_gif_full.html

The Dave Cave
(Registered User)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:10 AM
Re: Jeanne Track

Long time lurker, first time poster here.
First, thanks to all for your remarkably informative posts! Intelligent interactive discussion like this is rare when dealing with what can develop into a rather emotional situation. It has helped me maintain what's left of my sanity over the last few weeks.

What is the take of the members of the board about the recent changes in track. Yes, I know that the NHC track is the "Official" version but recent changes appear to indicate that there is potential for Cat 1 force winds in Orlando. I have a niece's wedding to get to in PA and would have to leave by 10 AM today to get there in time (driving, gulp!). I can ride out up north for the return trip out of harm's way in PA but don't want to go if we are expecting HF winds in O'do. Since the latest official track is trending more east, does it look to continue moving that way or, in your vaired opinions, do conditions look to keep it more to the coastal/slight inland course? With the course right now, I would think that O'do would be right on the west edge of the HF windfield. Am I hallucinating?

Thanks for any opinions you can offer! And again, thanks for your continued erudite discussion!

Ricreig
(User)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:12 AM
Re: Jeanne Track

Quote:

Recent infrared seems to show the deep convection increasing after a weakining over the nightime hours. We are shell-shocked here in Orlando. The slightest change to the track a little west will have this going right over Orlando.

AGAIN!!!

SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:15 AM
Re: Jeanne Track

The street map shows last nights advisory of 5pm...but the page says 5am this mornin???
26.2n
80.1w

COgal
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:22 AM
Re: Jeanne Track

I have read over and over again how the models have been consistently right biased.......
Is there truth to that and if so does anyone think it will affect THIS track?

Ricreig
(User)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:23 AM
Re: Jeanne Track

Quote:

NRL's "rounded" track has been updated with the 5 am advisory:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ATL_11L.JEANNE_ssmi_gif_full.html

While this is probably a good depiction and maybe even a 'better' depiction of her path, it *is* still bringing the eyewall too close for comfort to E Orlando which has already had a direct hit of the Charley eye-wall and puts the East Eye wall right over the coast, also areas that suffered so badly with Frances. NONE of these depictions can depict the misery and costs and yes, even loss of life of the real thing.. None of the lines on this map can depict what it will feel like (or does for earlier storm victims) how it feels to return to a pile of rubble instead of a home. And it isn't *just* Orlando even though it is home to me, it is much of an entire state that is suffering again, psychologically now, physically this weekend.

Remember, these lines, curved or not represent an approximate center of an *area* of fear and uncertainty and pain and misery and of lives changed.

SkeetoBiteAdministrator
(Master of Maps)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:23 AM
Re: Jeanne Track

Corrected... on third cup of coffee ;-)

SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:24 AM
Re: Jeanne

Good Mornin all!
Scott has your forecast changed at all from yesterday afternoon as far as a landfall between pompano bch and jupiter?
Thanks,
Kathy

SkeetoBiteAdministrator
(Master of Maps)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:25 AM
Re: Jeanne Track

Quote:

Those Skeetobite maps are awesome..BUT>>>>. don't place emphasis on linking a straight line from one forecast point to the next. The hurricane center themselves cautioned against this:
Quote from the 5pm discussion:
"USERS ARE CAUTIONED TO NOT FOCUS ON THE SPECIFIC FORECAST POINTS
DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...THE LARGE SIZE OF THE HURRICANE...AND
BECAUSE JEANNE COULD TAKE A MORE ROUNDED PATH NEAR LANDFALL THAN
IMPLIED BY SIMPLY CONNECTING THE 48 AND 72 HOUR FORECAST POINTS"

This would make a landfall MUCH further south on the Florida coast than the apparent St Augustine strike as viewed on Skeetobite's map (possibly the Melbourne area, followed by a scrape up the coast ala David in 1979)

--Lou



Updated with curved path. Will continue to refine the tracks. Thanks to everyone for the feedback.



Full size available at www.skeetobite.com/weather

52255225
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:31 AM
Re: Jeanne

he was up so late last night you probably wont hear from him until atleast noon or so. I saw multiple posts between 12;00 last night up until 2:30 ish in the a.m. I read most of them and it kinda sounded like he was still sticking to his forecast track from yesterday afternoon. go to your search page and under find members type in scottsvb it will show you all his posts with the last one being first. Hes really good.

SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:37 AM
Re: Jeanne

Thanks....his forecast puts Jeanne right in my front door

Ricreig
(User)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:38 AM
Re: Jeanne Track

Quote:

I have read over and over again how the models have been consistently right biased.......
Is there truth to that and if so does anyone think it will affect THIS track?

Yes, there is truth to that. Most of the previous storms this hear have been 'adjusted' repeatedly to the West because the models and forecasts based in part upon those models are biased 'right' or East. This is why there is a lot of movement of the track to the left. When the actual track is known, the models are 'reprogrammed' with better data regarding current conditions and they spit out new lines, often left of their previous lines. The NHC, uses those lines as a guide to their own lines and draw their lines further left.

As the lines get shorter (closer to the real position), the lines usually don't have to be moved much and have less bias. I guess what I'm saying here is the lines just depict *guesses* and the guesses are often skewed to the right because the computer guesses are based upon a combination of incomplete or even incorrect data coupled with our lack of understanding of how nature really works and our programmers, who write the model software), inability to translate what we *do* know into a form that computers can 'understand'.

So, yes, they are biased and yes, it will affect this and future forecast track estimates. The track itself, the real one doesn't know or care about our forecasts. Nature laughs, jogs, meanders "bombs" and races acording to her own rules.

52255225
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:43 AM
Re: Jeanne

Lets hope hes off a little, but from what Ive seen from him lately with all the canes hes been pretty accurate. Im very curious to see what course she takes after landfall. Weve been pretty darn lucky over in the Tampa Bay area so far.Good luck to you!

MissBecky
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:47 AM
Re: Jeanne Track

One thing I have noticed is that NHC says NOGAPS (and to a lesser extent, UKMET) consistently seem to be moving these storms too fast. Is that a flaw within the models themselves, or simply the data they are programmed with?

Ricreig
(User)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:49 AM
Re: Jeanne Track

Quote:

Updated with curved path. Will continue to refine the tracks. Thanks to everyone for the feedback.


Skeetobite....your maps are and continue to improve from 'dammed good' to 'awesomely great' but I hope you have liability insurance.... Someone is going to sue you for 'moving' the hurricane from the coast to 'right over my house'!

Thanks for all of your efforts, they really do help people better understand the potential effects of this and other storms, upon them. Your maps better depict and encourage the perception of an AREA rather than a point or line as it pertains to the storm(s) you depict.

Your abilities continue to develop and I see you now understand about arc segments and not just line segments <grin> Good show!

Ricreig
(User)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:51 AM
Re: Jeanne Track

Quote:

Corrected... on third cup of coffee ;-)

...and how many No-Doze?

RedingtonBeachGuy
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:53 AM
Re: Some Humor You Can't Refuse

Happy Birthday to you, Happy Birthday to you, Happy Birthday dear Colleen, now let's blow Jeanne out to sea.

52255225
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:53 AM
Re: Jeanne Track


Thanks for all of your efforts, they really do help people better understand the potential effects of this and other storms, upon them. Your maps better depict and encourage the perception of an AREA rather than a point or line as it pertains to the storm(s) you depict.

Your abilities continue to develop and I see you now understand about arc segments and not just line segments <grin> Good show!

I second that! hes doing an awesome job!!

tpratch
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:57 AM
Re: Jeanne Track

Quote:


Updated with curved path. Will continue to refine the tracks. Thanks to everyone for the feedback.



Yeah - tweak those bezier points a bit - if you're not using Photoshop's vector shape layers, you should be

Of course, every update brings it closer to a Melbourne landfall - I'm none to thrilled with Jeanne about that.

OrlandoDan
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 24 2004 11:58 AM
Re: Jeanne Track

I do not claim to be a "Weather Guru" or anything like that, but I just don't see how jeane will turn north with what I see on the water vapor loop.

Ricreig
(User)
Fri Sep 24 2004 12:03 PM
Re: Jeanne Track

Quote:

One thing I have noticed is that NHC says NOGAPS (and to a lesser extent, UKMET) consistently seem to be moving these storms too fast. Is that a flaw within the models themselves, or simply the data they are programmed with?

I think it is a combination of both. I don't program for a living anymore, but program bugs, incomplete or incorrect data, transcription errors, malfunctioning equipment, and a whole bunch more coupled with a real lack of knowledge by both the mets and the programmers understanding of all of the realities of nature, all combine to make errors.

The models you mentioned often don't 'understand' the effects of future changes in the strength speed of change and location of data asssociated with distant but significant ridges and troughs often hundreds or even thousands of miles distant. Some do better with the future, some do great for near-term events, some do fine with 'normal' weather but as the storm gets stronger, perform poorly.

For these reasons and more, we have to look at the whole bunch of models and apply our own experience, training and common sense using the models as a tool like a mechanic uses a wrench or screwdriver....the models by themselves are useless in the same way that a wrench can't fix a car, but as a tool, both are valuable in the hands of a skilled person.

RedingtonBeachGuy
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 24 2004 12:04 PM
Re: Jeanne Track

FYI: over the years I have learned to rely less and less on water vapor images. I used to follow them all the time but learned they are very misleading. But, that is just my observation.

52255225
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 24 2004 12:04 PM
Re: Jeanne Track

me either! It might not! We should know more late this afternoon. Depends on speed of the cane etc etc. 8;00 update says its still on a continued westerly track but has shifted the cone a little to the east.

MissBecky
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 24 2004 12:08 PM
Re: Jeanne Track

Thank you, Richard. It's tempting to rely on the models too much, when there are so many uncertainties. There is a certain relief at being able to point to a line on a map and say, "There. It's going there." But in reality that line is just a guidance, and not gospel truth, and it's easy to forget that.

Ricreig
(User)
Fri Sep 24 2004 12:11 PM
Re: Jeanne Track

Quote:

I do not claim to be a "Weather Guru" or anything like that, but I just don't see how jeane will turn north with what I see on the water vapor loop.

While water vapor loops do help visualize where the highs and lows and wind patterns are, it is often what you can't see that has the greatest effect. First, the high pressure areas often have complex shapes that are invisible in the WV loops mostly because High Pressure areas are often dry and contain little moisture making them 'invisible'. Secondly, WV loops are based upon data on the amount of water in the upper atmosphere unlike the visible and IR images which tend to be visualizations of reflected energy from much lower levels of the atmosphere. As hurricanes are affected more by mid-levels of the atmosphere, the WV loops often do not predict the real movers of hurricane weather. It is just one more good tool for use in forecasting, but by itself, it doesn't tell the whole story.

Ricreig
(User)
Fri Sep 24 2004 12:14 PM
Re: Jeanne Track

Quote:

Thank you, Richard. It's tempting to rely on the models too much, when there are so many uncertainties. There is a certain relief at being able to point to a line on a map and say, "There. It's going there." But in reality that line is just a guidance, and not gospel truth, and it's easy to forget that.

Then you have learned something that is both significant and often overlooked and unlearned by your peers, and sometimes by myself and worse, sometimes by the experts themselves. Good luck...

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 24 2004 12:15 PM
Re: Jeanne Track

I remember Andrew and for 2 straight days they said it will turn WNW or NW. Andrew instead took a western beeline and stayed between 25.3 and 25.8 for 66 straight hours. Why? Steeered by the strong high pressure to its north. Today, we also have a strong high pressure to the north of Jeanne. This storm could just keep going west, maybe WNW and not make what is looking more and more as too sharp a turn to the right. We shall see. I spent over a half hour on line for gas at 5:30 am today, crazy!!!!

Ricreig
(User)
Fri Sep 24 2004 12:19 PM
Re: Jeanne Track

Quote:

I spent over a half hour on line for gas at 5:30 am today, crazy!!!!


I have a feeling that if your city name includes 'Beach", you will find more lines, longer lines and less gas. ....but it is nice the *rest* of the year!

Shalafi
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 24 2004 12:29 PM
Re: Jeanne Track

New post up....

RevUp
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 24 2004 12:32 PM
Re: Jeanne Track

Yes, Jeanne will decide where she wants to go. Until then, we have some incredible tools and guidance at our disposal to help anticipate her most likely path and intensity range. As NHC points out, intensity is probably the most difficult aspect of these storms to forecast with great accuracy. Combine that with a storm expected to recurve to the north and east, and you have a real challenge. Based on current guidance, which has become increasingly consistent in exposing a northward weakness by early Sunday morning, I expect Jeanne to hug the east coast from Palm Beach northward, without the center actually making landfall.

As with most hurricanes scraping the coast, it is the coastal areas which have to be most prepared for some storm surge flooding (esp. forward right quadrant), but only briefly from Palm Beach to Daytona Beach, then offshore. Jeanne (possibly reaching cat 3 strength) will most likely affect coastal areas with cat 2 winds (96-110 mph) initially, dropping to cat 1 (74-95 mph) north of Daytona Beach. Based on the current forecast, damaging wind gusts exceeding 50 mph are possible up to 50 miles inland to the left of the actual storm track. Trees, mobile homes, and suspended objects are most susceptible to being damaged and causing injury and damage to nearby structures.

(I second the applause for Skeetobite's maps!)

“Prepare for the worst, pray for the best.”

Ricreig
(User)
Fri Sep 24 2004 12:46 PM
Re: Jeanne Track

Answer posted to new topic area

VolusiaMike
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Sep 24 2004 04:55 PM
Re: Jeanne Track

I am looking for the link to the color water vapor loop. Anybody got it handy?

TIA

Michael


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