Ivan is looking absolutely astounding on the satellite images tonight.. A Category 4 borderline 5 (forecast to become a 5 now). The central dense overcast around the eye is perfect at the moment. Luckily I don't think it'll hold this intensity long.

Note: Still category 4 as of 11PM:

Although, unfortunately, think it will be on the high end of the major hurricane scale as it approaches Jamaica.

Right now the track puts it over cuba, and once again into the Gulf of Mexico west of Florida. This is a larger system, like Frances. So it is likely effects may be felt across a wider area. The forecast track shifted a bit right at 11PM tonight as well. Hopefully it'll keep shifting right and go out to sea and miss the US entirely.

It still has a chance to meander to the west and avoid the gulf, but the more likely scenario is for it to head over cuba into the Gulf of Mexico. Which would unfortunately put the western coast of Florida and the rest of the Gulf coastal regions in watch mode again.

If it were to approach Florida it would come in again at an odd angle, causing warnings up and down the coast similar to Charley (if not longer). The areas hit by Charley will be under the gun, and likely Tampa again. I hope, for Florida's sake. It decides to ditch the idea of a vacation there. Venice, Punta Gorda, Ft. Myers, Key West, Sarasota, Tampa and the panhandle are the models current destinations. Not again!

The islands of the Caribbean, Mexico and the Gulf states need to watch Ivan over the next week -- especially Florida. (Again.. I just hope we don't strikeout)

I don't think it will be a category 5 when it makes landfall, however.

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