|
|
|||||||
11AM Update NHC Official Track shifts left a bit at 11, now toward West Coast of Florida again Late Sunday, Monday or Tuesday. The hurricane center also states, however, that they are very uncertain with the track at present. 10AM Update All non-residents and visitors to the Florida Keys are now under a mandatory evacuation order. As of 9AM Today. At 7AM tomorrow the Keys will undergo a phased evacuation for residents as well. Monroe County Emergency Management Original Update Hurricane Ivan is now a strong and rare Category 5 Hurricane, the highest on the scale. Ivan is moving west Northwest in the Caribbean Sea. The Latest recon has recorded a windspeed at 151 Knots at flight level, which indicates the sustained ground windspeed may be even higher than the 160MPH at the 5AM National Hurricane Center Advisory. Right now it still has room to get a little bit stronger. I am not sure if it will reach Gilbert levels or not, but it is possible. It is important to note that if it got to Florida, it would not be at its current intensity, it would likely be lower. Hopefully much lower. This is not good news at all for Jamaica if it heads ion its current path. Luckily storms like this usually don't hold extreme strength too long. But if the conditions allow it for further strengthening it may still be a or category 5 or strong 4 at landfall for Jamaica. However the official forecast calls for it to weaken a bit before then. Tropical Depression Ten formed in the east Atlantic, near the Azores. It's moving Northeast and looks to be a fiish spinner (not affecting land) for the most part. More to come later today. ** SITE NOTE ** Although we are working on improving the site hardware and bandwidth (thanks to donations and help from others), we are still using the old system currently, with slight modifications. Therefore the site may go down from time to time, although not for very long. We are continually working on improving the response without removing usefulness. We have new hardware on order and should be in sometime next week. Those asking for a mailing address for donations should use Mike Cornelius 804 Omni Blvd Suite 101 Newport News, VA 23606 Event RelatedLinks Stormcarib personal reports from Jamaica Ivan Models -- This image animated over time Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link) Weather Underground Model Plots for Ivan The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands Caribbean Island Weather Reports Nice color satellite image (Animated Version) High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater) Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations): Tampa. Miami, Key West, Tallahassee. Melbourne Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in: Key West (Florida Keys)Long Range Radar Loop General Links Skeetobite's storm track maps Current Aircraft Recon Info NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos) Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system. Follow worldwide SST evolution here: Global SST Animation NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at: North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor LSU Sat images Some forecast models: NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF) Multi-model plots from WREL Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Even more on the links page. |