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Overnight Ivan deepened at one point, possibly briefly to Camille levels, but then lstarted an eyewall replacement cycle and weakened a bit. That's not the real news, however, that is although Jamaica still received very heavy rains and wind, and likely lots of problems, the eye of the Hurricane remained to the south of the island. Hurricane Ivan 's currently just southwest of the Island. Which is great news. Although the storm was forecast to clip the western edge of Jamaica, the overnight "wobble" to the west will keep it from doing so. It's still not clear Jamaica now, so currently their winds are getting high, but Jamaica was spared the extreme worst part of the storm. This leftward motion has increased the chance for a panhandle strike later on, but the cone of error is still extremely large. It's interesting to note that forecasts have been overdoing the motion to the right. It will be interesting watching the trends as it heads closer to Cuba. ** SITE NOTE ** Although we are working on improving the site hardware and bandwidth (thanks to donations and help from others), we are still using the old system currently, with slight modifications. Therefore the site may go down from time to time, although not for very long. We are continually working on improving the response without removing usefulness. We have new hardware on order and should be in sometime next week. Those asking for a mailing address for donations should use Mike Cornelius 804 Omni Blvd Suite 101 Newport News, VA 23606 Event RelatedLinks Jamaican Radar (long and short range) Jamaican Weather Service Stormcarib personal reports from Jamaica Ivan Models -- This image animated over time Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link) Weather Underground Model Plots for Ivan The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands Caribbean Island Weather Reports Nice color satellite image Animated Color Ivan Satellite (With NHC Track Overlay) (Animated Version) High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater) Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations): Tampa. Miami, Key West, Tallahassee. Melbourne Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in: Key West (Florida Keys)Long Range Radar Loop General Links Skeetobite's storm track maps Current Aircraft Recon Info Disaster Relief Information NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos) Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system. Follow worldwide SST evolution here: Global SST Animation NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at: North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor LSU Sat images Some forecast models: NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF) Multi-model plots from WREL Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Even more on the links page. |