|
|
|||||||
9AM Update Recon reports have the pressure up to 930mb this morning, meaning the storm has weakened a bit. Probably to low cat 4 / high 3 levels (Shear seems to be gaining). It's hard to say if this is a trend or not or a eyewall cycle that it will recover from. Monitoring the recon repors and satellite images will help there. The 11AM NHC advisory should be interesting. The pressure rise indicates it probably won't recover to Category 5 levels, at least not soon. Also TD#11 is very likely to be upgraded to Tropical Storm Jeanne at 11. Original Update Still a category 5, Hurricane Ivan is now in the Gulf of Mexico. Watches are up from Morgan City, Louisiana to St. Marks in Florida, including New Orleans. The forecast track shifted a little west as well. Do not focus on the point of landfall, errors on the future track may be large. All areas in the Hurricane Watch need to prepare. Image thanks to Skeetobite The entire Watch area needs to prepare for a major hurricane. More to come later. Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in: All Current Hurricane Local Statements Tallahassee, FL (Panhandle) - Long Range Radar Loop Mobile, AL - Long Range Radar Loop New Orelans, LA - Long Range Radar Loop San Juan, PR - Long Range Radar Loop Key West, FL - Long Range Radar Loop ** SITE NOTE ** Although we are working on improving the site hardware and bandwidth (thanks to donations and help from others), we are still using the old system currently, with slight modifications. Therefore the site may go down from time to time, although not for very long. We are continually working on improving the response without removing usefulness. We have new hardware on order and should be in sometime next week. Those asking for a mailing address for donations should use Mike Cornelius 804 Omni Blvd Suite 101 Newport News, VA 23606 Event RelatedLinks Closeup Animated Visible Satellite of Ivan Stormcarib Reports from the Cayman Islands Cuban Radar Images Police , fire and rescue scanner audio feeds from Gulf Coast locations Ivan Models -- This image animated over time TD#11 Models -- This image animated over time Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link) Weather Underground Model Plots for Ivan The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands Caribbean Island Weather Reports Nice color satellite image Animated Color Ivan Satellite (With NHC Track Overlay) (Animated Version) High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater) Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations): Tampa. Miami, Key West, Tallahassee. Melbourne Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures General Links Skeetobite's storm track maps Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir Other Recon Info Disaster Relief Information NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos) Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system. Follow worldwide SST evolution here: Global SST Animation NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at: North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor LSU Sat images Some forecast models: NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF) Multi-model plots from WREL Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Even more on the links page. |