Tue Sep 14 2004 11:08 AM
Ivan Weakens Slightly and Tropical Storm Jeanne Forms

2PM EDT Update
Hurricane Ivan is holding as a Category 4 storm, and the eye is roughly 40 miles wide now. Intensity is expected to fluctuate and go down a little bit more, the track remains the same.

Jeanne has strengthened a bit this morning, recon has found winds around 50MPH as it approaches Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. It has the chance to strengthen a bit more as time goes on. Good luck to those in Puerto Rico like CyclonEye (s2k) and others.

Original Update
Hurricane Ivan has gone through weakening this morning, with pressures rising and windspeed falling. Ivan's windspeed at 11AM (EDT) was 140MPH, but according to the National Hurricane Center it actually may be slightly less as they were still waiting on a few more recon reports at the time of the advisory.

Errors may be large in this track, folks in the Hurricane Watch area must prepare.

The track remains very similar to the last one this morning so there are no changes there--maybe a little more west. It projects Landfall near the Alabama, Nississippi border, and it looks fairly solid. (Athough all the areas in the Hurricane watch need to prepare, storms are fickle)

(Track Map Thanks to Skeetobite)
Ivan is forecast to weaken some more, but before it arrives it land it will go over a warm eddy in the Gulf and have a chance to restrengthen a bit. Ivan will likely still be a major Hurricane when it makes landfall.

Jeanne is a minimal Tropical Storm over the leeward islands in the Caribbean, Tropical storm warnings are up for other islands in the area. a windy, rainy event for them. After that, models trend it northwest but East of the Bahamas. Not sure on it yet. Time to watch later.

More to come later.

Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
All Current Hurricane Local Statements

Tallahassee, FL (Panhandle) - Long Range Radar Loop
Mobile, AL - Long Range Radar Loop
New Orelans, LA - Long Range Radar Loop
San Juan, PR - Long Range Radar Loop
Key West, FL - Long Range Radar Loop

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Event RelatedLinks
Closeup Animated Visible Satellite of Ivan
Anmated Ivan Visible floater Satellite
Buoy Reports from a buoy near Ivan
Police , fire and rescue scanner audio feeds from Gulf Coast locations
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
Weather Underground Model Plots for Ivan
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image
Animated Color Ivan Satellite (With NHC Track Overlay)
(Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Tallahassee.

Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures

General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps

Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info

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NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

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Some forecast models:

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.

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