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11PM Update The threat to Florida from Jeanne has increased tonight as the models are starting to shift further west and not show a northerly turn. Unfortunately, this means the Florida East coast from West Palm up to Jacksonville (and maybe further southward) needs to be watching Jeanne a lot closer. The rest of the southeast coast north of Florida also still needs to watch, as Jeanne has been performing poorly with the models. 9PM Ivan to be a tropical storm at 11PM EDT advisory... Karl is still spinning in the atlantic and Lisa is about dead due to what will probably be our next tropical depression behind kt. Original Update Amazingly, Ivan has reformed as a tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico nearly a week after it landfalled in the Florida Panhandle / Alabama coast. Which iis up there on my amazing scale. This year is turning out to be the most interesting track years I have ever seen. Do not focus on exact track of path Thanks to Skeetobite The regenerated Ivan is forecast to head toward the Texas coast as a minimal tropical storm. It's center is exposed now, so I think it will remain weak. Jeanne is starting to make its move, and may be close to the US coastline later this weekend. It's prudent to watch now, especially in the Carolinasl, but as it nears the Bahamas it will be prudent that everyone along the east coast watches it. It seems to be getting stronger tonight. Event Related Links Ivan Models -- This image animated over time Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time Karl Models -- This image animated over time Lisa Models -- This image animated over time Jeanne Sphagehtti Model from BoatUS/Hurricane Alley Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations): Tampa. Miami, Key West, Jacksonville. Melbourne General Links NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos) Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system. Follow worldwide SST evolution here: Global SST Animation NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at: North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor LSU Sat images Some forecast models: NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF) Multi-model plots from WREL Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Even more on the links page. |