(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 03:49 AM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

Rita is growing rapidly.
look like a comma to me.

comma

"HEIGHTS FROM 700 MB TO 400 MB HAVE NOT INCREASED ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT THE WIND SPEEDS HAVE
DECREASED. THIS ALL SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE
EAST OF FLORIDA MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS INDICATED IN THE MODEL
FIELDS. AS SUCH...THERE MAY A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
TRACKS IN THE 00Z MODEL RUNS."

LoisCane

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Mon Sep 19 2005 03:52 AM

2 sides of rita

nice pic.. shes sort of like..

im here
im there
im here again

those two centers must be driving the guys at nhc crazy

sort of like
butter, parkay, butter, parkay

not easy to figure out but whatever is going on she is gaining lat before her publicized push west

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 03:56 AM

Re: 2 sides of rita

this loop shows the two areas of convection merging into one. interesting to see the flare from the South get pulled in too.

(Moderator)

Mon Sep 19 2005 04:20 AM

TS Rita

Repost from last thread for Floridians and others on the Gulf Coast from Key West to Brownsville.

Based on Forecaster Stewart's Discussion of Rita.
The last paragraph is using heavy wording...this far in advance.
I would venture to sat at this point. If you live anywhere along the Gulf Coast and the Eastern FL coast as far North as Melbourne. Please pay special attention to all the NWS and NHC products. They Are the Official Watches and Warnings. Also watch for Hurricane Local Statements from your Local NWS office. They detail preparation and evacuation instructions.

Current HLS from NWS Miami and NWS KeyWest are less than 45 minutes old.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/index_hls3.shtml

Another interesting, and possibly significant note is found at Dr Vigh's website.
The 18Z early BAMS, BAMM and BAMD models, from the noon run today, placed Rita as far north as 27N at 90.0W.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/store/early_AAL18_05091818.png
The 00Z early BAMS, BAMM, and BAMD models tonight now indicate Rita could be as far north as New Orleans. That's 30.0N/ 90.0W
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/store/early_AAL18_05091900.png

Note: these models are currently the northern most outliers. And they didn't perform well with Katrina at the 120 hour/ 5 day forecast.

Genesis

(Weather Guru)

Mon Sep 19 2005 04:38 AM

Re: TS Rita

I'm not all that impressed with the BAM series.

What does concern me significantly is that a number of other models are trending north and eastward in the early guidance, AND that the storm is moving north of west by more than forecast.

Small changes in track this far out translate into big changes in location for an impact down the road.

I'd pay very close attention to that ridge the next day or two, along with exactly where Rita comes across the straights. If she comes in close to or right over the Keys, I believe we will see a significant northward and eastward shift in the guidance, and places that we do not want to think about having potential trouble might get some.

I echo the sentiment that basically nobody in the gulf can ignore this system at the present time. She has all the elements in place to strengthen significantly and the strength of the ridge that was forecast earlier does not appear to be verifying.

(Moderator)

Mon Sep 19 2005 04:39 AM

Hurricane Philippe

I'm consistantly seeing notes of Lightning from the AF Recon flying Hurricane Philippe.
Lightning is usually a sign of an intensifying storm and is not something that is freqeuntly noted in recon messages.
edited vortex message
H. EXTRAP 990 mb
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C20
P. AF309 0317A PHILIPPE OB 09 CCA
MAX FL WIND 83 KT NE QUAD 00:28:00 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
MODERATE TURBULENCE AND LIGHTNING.

note: A 20nm eye in a CAT 1 storm is a serious sign of a well formed storm.

RECON transmitted an update just as I posted the above info. The min. central pressure has dropped to 988mb.
The Eye is now elongated at 15/25/15nm.
P. AF309 0317A PHILIPPE OB 13
MAX FL WIND 70 KT SE QUAD 02:15:10 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB

ohioaninmiss

(Weather Watcher)

Mon Sep 19 2005 04:40 AM

Re: TS Rita

When I saw the BAMM and BAMD from Skeetobite projecting a possibility through New Orleans....

I believe that these two have typically not been very reliable...am I remembering correctly?

~edited to change 'accurate' to 'reliable'

(Moderator)

Mon Sep 19 2005 04:57 AM

Re: TS Rita

I haven't checked the BAM_ s against any storm but Katrina. Time constraints and the present location of Rita were the main reason I referenced Katrina.

The BAM_s tend to stay in a grouping, if you will, on most storms.

My post was mainly to inform and alert that the BAM_s grouping had moved North to near New Orleans. I'm concerned, to say the least, with that group.
While no one wants or needs a Hurricane of any Category. New Orleans can not handle another storm right now. Even the feeder bands would add to the water levels. I hope the Mayor will reconsider his plan to allow New Orleanians to return this week.

ohioaninmiss

(Weather Watcher)

Mon Sep 19 2005 05:02 AM

Re: TS Rita

I understand the New Orleans citizens' wishes to get home and get the clean up started, but I am with you on this one...they should wait until the threat of Rita (at least) is over.

(Moderator)

Mon Sep 19 2005 05:23 AM

Re: TS Rita

TROPICAL STORM RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
115 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005
AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...EXCLUDING GRAND
BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Rich B

(British Meteorologist)

Mon Sep 19 2005 09:50 AM

Rita a hurricane by tonight?

hey guys,
looks like Rita is gonna be a headache for a lot of people for some days ahead. Her organization is improving quite rapidly, with both the inner core consolidating more, and the larger circulation becoming more symetric and better defined. The course should see the centre track just south of the Florida mainland but probably straight across the Keys - i would say over Key West quite likely. With improving overall organization and an improving upper level environment Rita will likely be a hurricane later today. everyone in her path stay safe and prepare!

Best wishes

LadyStorm

(Weather Guru)

Mon Sep 19 2005 10:06 AM

Mariner's 123

Can anyone explain the Mariner's 123 to me.. It looks like all of Florida is shaded in this picture for Rita.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/084708.shtml?basin

SkeetoBite Administrator

(Master of Maps)

Mon Sep 19 2005 10:13 AM

Re: Mariner's 123

Quote:

Can anyone explain the Mariner's 123 to me.. It looks like all of Florida is shaded in this picture for Rita.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/084708.shtml?basin

Right below that picture is....

The Mariners' 1-2-3 Rule, or "Danger area", is indicated by shading. The 1-2-3 Rule, commonly taught to mariners, refers to the rounded long-term NHC/TPC forecast errors of 100-200-300 nautical miles at 24-48-72 hours, respectively. The contour defining the shaded area is constructed by accounting for those errors and then broadened further to reflect the maximum 34-kt wind radii forecast at each of those times by the NHC/TPC. The NHC/TPC does not warrant that avoiding these danger areas will eliminate the risk of harm from tropical cyclones. Users operating in the vicinity of these systems are advised to continually monitor the latest Forecast/Advisories from the TPC/NHC and proceed at their own risk. This product also includes areas of possible tropical cyclone formation within the next 36 hours.

Source: National Hurricane Center

SkeetoBite Administrator

(Master of Maps)

Mon Sep 19 2005 10:20 AM

Re: Mariner's 123

Land Fall Zoom for Rita forecast:

Clickable Thumbnail

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Mon Sep 19 2005 10:30 AM

Re: Rita a hurricane by tonight?

Quote:

hey guys,
looks like Rita is gonna be a headache for a lot of people for some days ahead. Her organization is improving quite rapidly, with both the inner core consolidating more, and the larger circulation becoming more symetric and better defined. The course should see the centre track just south of the Florida mainland but probably straight across the Keys - i would say over Key West quite likely. With improving overall organization and an improving upper level environment Rita will likely be a hurricane later today. everyone in her path stay safe and prepare!
Best wishes

Absolutely! We all know - or should know - that any forecast beyond 3 days is far from an exact science. If Rita takes the north route through the cone, which it seems more of the models are forecasting as time goes on... it increases the threat to Louisiana, although the guidance still is concentrated on Texas. 24 hours ago the guidance was concentrated on Mexico, though. Another shift to the east and you've got a BIG problem.

BullitNutz

(Weather Watcher)

Mon Sep 19 2005 10:34 AM

Re: Rita a hurricane by tonight?

Anywhere but the NGC. Those people have had enough. I hope it just spins fish and flies out into the Atlantic.

Looks unlikely though. Hopefully it'll peg some desolate stretch of Texas coastline if it has to make landfall.

ticka1

(Weather Hobbyist)

Mon Sep 19 2005 11:12 AM

Re: Rita a hurricane by tonight?

I am not liking the latest forecast from the NHC this morning on Rita. Why does it seem that the women storm names are deadly? As it is advised on this site - I'm checking my list and getting some supplies tonight before the panic buying starts in......

(Weather Analyst)

Mon Sep 19 2005 12:10 PM

Re: Rita a hurricane by tonight?

Time for a morning review of the models!

Rita:
GFDL is strengthening it rapidly again - strong cat 2 through strong cat 3 possible before it hits the Keys, then it tracks west with a northward jog in the western Gulf...and hits near Houston. Only shows minor fluctuations in strength after it enteres the Gulf.

CMC shows it devloping a broad, deep low that covers most of the gulf, but keeps it tracking to southern Texas.

GFS is pushing Rita even more eastward than GFDL, with a final landfall near the TX/LA border. The track, otherwise, is similar to the GFDL.

NOGAPS is staying south, bringing Rita into Texas near the Mexico border.

UKMET shows Rita developing a deep, tight low before making a sharp northward curve as it nears Texas, bringing final landfall near to Houston.

Philippe:
GFDL tracks it north, and is fairly well in line with the NHC guidance for both track and intensity.

CMC takes this storm on a very different track than the model consensus, pushing it west into the eastern Bahamas before showing any sort of northward jog. A worrisome scenario.

GFS is left of the NHC guidance, keeping Philippe even further into the Atlantic and no threat to Burmuda.

NOGAPS beings the worst case scenerio for Burmuda, with a near to direct hit with the eye. It stays well inside the NHC guidance envelope.

UKMET brings Philippe northward but curves it back east before it reaches Burmuda.

Invest 97L
CMC shows this storm forming and tracking northwest and slowly curving out to sea, with a northeast movement by the end of the forcast period.

No other models detect 97L on pressure graphs.

Models used
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
CMC, GFDL, NOGAPS, and UKMET 00Z runs
GFS 06Z run

Remember, these are not official forcasts. See the NHC for official forcasts.

(Weather Guru)

Mon Sep 19 2005 12:12 PM

Re: Rita a hurricane by tonight?

This is what totally annoys me about watches and warnings... and its not anyone's fault its just my observation.

Now the 8 a.m. advisory just noted that the Hurricane Warning advisory maybe extended later today northward. Many private employers will only let their staff go under a hurricane warning, so therefore if it is extended later this afternoon, many people here in the Southern Miami Dade county will be left with every little time to prepare.

Anyway I am ready, however there is a lot of debris from Katrina still laying around the neighbourhood and that is scary.

Black Pearl

(Weather Watcher)

Mon Sep 19 2005 12:13 PM

Re: Rita a hurricane by tonight?

Latest run of GFDL (12Z) has moved east again into Lousiana

Model Plotter

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Mon Sep 19 2005 12:16 PM

Re: Rita a hurricane by tonight?

Well it looks like Rita has an outside interest in targeting the Katrina refugees in the Houston Astrodome...wonder if that structure is rated for a Cat 3?

I think they should now be bussed to LA, in hopes that an earthquake will occur there.

(Weather Master)

Mon Sep 19 2005 12:18 PM

Re: Rita a hurricane by tonight?

The way the models are moving, I think we need a few more runs to get a handle on it. Last night BAMM had it going 50-60 miles further north into the bottom of the FL pennisula.

(Weather Analyst)

Mon Sep 19 2005 12:19 PM

Re: Rita a hurricane by tonight?

Warnings and watches are based on a "time to impact" factor. If you are outside that time envelope, they won't issue the watch/warning yet even if you might be effected. They will wait undtil the proper time to issue it. If I remember, I think warnings are 48 hour lead time, but I might be wrong. Don't quote me! - plus I think she's already closer than 48 hours...about 36-42 hours until south of eastern FL, 48 hours until off the tip of southern Florida. If there is a northward change in the models, that's less than 48 hours.

Also, they may have mentioned the change in the warnings becuase of the center reformation north...which might affect model runs.

--RC

(Weather Analyst)

Mon Sep 19 2005 12:21 PM

Re: Rita a hurricane by tonight?

Quote:

Well it looks like Rita has an outside interest in targeting the Katrina refugees in the Houston Astrodome...wonder if that structure is rated for a Cat 3?

I think they should now be bussed to LA, in hopes that an earthquake will occur there.

Speaking of the Astrodome, I heard just the other day on the national news that they were down to 2000 refugees left at the Astrodome. The rest have been given temporary housing (apartments, hotels, spare bedrooms, etc).

---

Not sure where the 12Z run of the GFDL? Didn't expect that out yet...should have been a couple hours still. Anyway...I can't find it or the 06Z run at any of the model animation sites, so I can't really comment on them other than the track (which can be seen on that track above).

However, take a look at the Cyclone Phase plot from the 00Z GFDL run - it shows why we will see rapid strengthening before it reaches Florida - look at the SSTs:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfdl/rita18l/fcst/archive/05091900/3.html

---

(I know this is all off topic...but hey...Geology is related to Meteology...both earth sciences!

)

And if we're talking about the "big ones" ... here are a couple links for the Seattle area:
Earthquake: http://www.pnsn.org/NEWS/PRESS_RELEASES/SCENARIOS.html
Vucanism - look at the "Hazards Map" on that page: http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/Volcanoes/Rainier/Hazards/OFR98-428/framework.html
Elsewhere Vulcanism - 2 of the biggest vulcanic systems in the world are in the US: http://lvo.wr.usgs.gov/index.html and http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/ - look at the size of the crater at Yellowstone (YVO): http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/images/2000-rbs-1.3ysrp_large.jpg

ohioaninmiss

(Weather Watcher)

Mon Sep 19 2005 12:23 PM

Re: Rita a hurricane by tonight?

Margie -

Don't look now, but CNN spent a lot of time last night talking about the unpreparedness (if that's a word) of southern California for the "big one."

Mother Nature is not going to give us a break this year....

Ron Basso

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 12:29 PM

Re: Rita a hurricane by tonight?

Quote:

Warnings and watches are based on a "time to impact" factor. If you are outside that time envelope, they won't issue the watch/warning yet even if you might be effected. They will wait undtil the proper time to issue it. If I remember, I think warnings are 48 hour lead time, but I might be wrong. Don't quote me! - plus I think she's already closer than 48 hours...about 36-42 hours until south of eastern FL, 48 hours until off the tip of southern Florida. If there is a northward change in the models, that's less than 48 hours.

Also, they may have mentioned the change in the warnings becuase of the center reformation north...which might affect model runs.

--RC

Actually RC, I think the strict definition is 36 hours announcement for a Watch and 24 hours for a Warning. In this case, they went early to evalcuate the FL Keys.

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 12:32 PM

Re: Rita a hurricane by tonight?

Quote:

This is what totally annoys me about watches and warnings... and its not anyone's fault its just my observation.

Now the 8 a.m. advisory just noted that the Hurricane Warning advisory maybe extended later today northward. Many private employers will only let their staff go under a hurricane warning, so therefore if it is extended later this afternoon, many people here in the Southern Miami Dade county will be left with every little time to prepare.

Anyway I am ready, however there is a lot of debris from Katrina still laying around the neighbourhood and that is scary.

I understand your annoyance. Hurricanes in general annoy me as well. The thing is that all of us who live in Florida should STAY prepared during hurricane season. This storm did not sneak up on us.

The NHC issues watches and warnings in accordance within their guidlines.

Stay safe and gods speed everyone in Rit's path.

Tampa Bay Buc's Undefeated in 2006

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 12:33 PM

Re: Rita a hurricane by tonight?

The model shift late in the forecast is of concern..this is similiar to what happened with Katrina, with a GFDL shift west 3 days before landfall. This time it seems east. Anywhere from Houston to NO would be a bad scenario.

Ron Basso

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 12:33 PM

Re: Rita a hurricane by tonight?

Looks like the 5 AM NHC guidance is now on the south side of the latest model runs. The new 12Z GFDL has shifted north and east. At their 8 AM intermediate advisory, it looks like they are making plans to shift the track slightly north and allow for a larger storm. Things gonna get real interesting with the future track of Rita.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG BOTH COASTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATER THIS MORNING.

ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH IN THE TRACK OF RITA COULD REQUIRE AN EXTENSION OF THE HURRICANE WARNING NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA LATER THIS MORNING.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_18.gif

(Weather Guru)

Mon Sep 19 2005 12:35 PM

Re: Rita a hurricane by tonight?

Quote:

Warnings and watches are based on a "time to impact" factor. If you are outside that time envelope, they won't issue the watch/warning yet even if you might be effected. They will wait undtil the proper time to issue it. If I remember, I think warnings are 48 hour lead time, but I might be wrong. Don't quote me! - plus I think she's already closer than 48 hours...about 36-42 hours until south of eastern FL, 48 hours until off the tip of southern Florida. If there is a northward change in the models, that's less than 48 hours.

Also, they may have mentioned the change in the warnings becuase of the center reformation north...which might affect model runs.

--RC

yea i understand..... sorry for my rant.... i am just a litle hurricaned out.. very stressed.. and i am getting to leave town right now because since we are not under a hurricane warning as yet.. all is as normal in my office today.

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 12:49 PM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

Given the current long range forecast for Rita, I was wondering if I should be concerned now? Seems to be edging up the coast
a bit. How sure are they of the weakness in the ridge? And how intense should the storm get?

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 12:51 PM

Re: Rita a hurricane by tonight?

Several stretches of coastline are not desolate...Corpus Christi, Houston, Galveston, Port Arthur/Beaumont.

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 12:56 PM

Re: Rita a hurricane by tonight?

Considering the model runs continue to move east, play it safe and prepare for a cat 3 within 100 miles of you...especially since the GFDL is actually east of you now...

(Weather Master)

Mon Sep 19 2005 12:59 PM

Re: Rita a hurricane by tonight?

Two interesting tidbits I saw and read today:

1-All the storms that caused trouble this year were female
2-So far every storm that turned into a hurricane started in the WEST Atlantic basin this year.

(Storm Chaser)

Mon Sep 19 2005 01:07 PM

Re: Rita a hurricane by tonight?

Quote:

Two interesting tidbits I saw and read today:

1-All the storms that caused trouble this year were female
2-So far every storm that turned into a hurricane started in the WEST Atlantic basin this year.

What about Dennis?

(Weather Master)

Mon Sep 19 2005 01:18 PM

Re: Rita a hurricane by tonight?

[]What about Dennis?

Sorry; last time I read the sun-sentinel.

javlin

(Weather Master)

Mon Sep 19 2005 01:29 PM

Re: Rita a hurricane by tonight?

Quote:

Latest run of GFDL (12Z) has moved east again into Lousiana
Model Plotter

The scary part if i might say is that the LBAR is moving W and the other models are moving N and E.I have ridden every cane thus far in this house from Camille to her big sister Katrina.I do not know if I can ride out another one this season.Not that Rita is coming close to here that remains to be seen but if she does?I bring this up also because I saw Max Mayfield on the FNC last night saying NO and the NGOM are not out of the woods yet.
Side note read yesterday in the SunHerald with a good laugh 3' black tip shark in owners pond.The pond is 5 miles inland N of Pass Christian.The owner said he had Red fish and Bat Rays also they have since died off and the shark will to before long.The salinity is starting to decrease.

(Weather Master)

Mon Sep 19 2005 01:39 PM

Re: Rita a hurricane by tonight?

I've always noticed that the LBAR is an out lyer (sp); anyone know why?

(Storm Chaser)

Mon Sep 19 2005 01:49 PM

Re: Rita a hurricane by tonight?

Is Rita trying to form an eye,but north of where they say the center is?Would like some other opinions. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ATL/atlrecentvis.html

(Registered User)

Mon Sep 19 2005 01:55 PM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

Hi everybody!

Looking at the NHC five-day cone and at Skeetobite computer models this morning I start worrying about New Orleans again. Not only do several of these models thake Rita really close to New Orleans, but there is also the risk of strom surge or at least battering waves if Rita passes south of the city. Could this not break the barriers sent up with sandbags and re-flod the city again?

Cheers,

TN

doug

(Weather Analyst)

Mon Sep 19 2005 01:59 PM

Re: Rita a hurricane by tonight?

The views on the visible loop suggest a WNW movement (right toward Andros)...If this is not a jog or an organizational thing, this exposes most of SE Florida, IMO.

(Storm Chaser)

Mon Sep 19 2005 02:02 PM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

Looks like they will shift the track more north @ the 11:00 advisary.That is not good news for S. Florida.Just a little bit north means worse conditions for all of S. Florida.Pressure continues to drop.Here we go again!

(Weather Master)

Mon Sep 19 2005 02:04 PM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

The concern is definitely there. Considering the Mayor wants to allow people back into the area. In addition, Houston looks a bit close to possible eventual landfall and let's not forget all the people that transitioned to that area.

(Weather Master)

Mon Sep 19 2005 02:04 PM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

I think we're looking about 40-50 miles north based on the models. Though I still think I'm north of the worst of it and just see some TS stuff, I wonder when I'll loose power. FP&L reassured us that they did work on the grid, so its a given we'll loose it.

GuppieGrouper

(Weather Master)

Mon Sep 19 2005 02:05 PM

Re: Rita a hurricane by tonight?

If it becomes a trend they will let us know about it by 2pm. Otherwise it is still the storm trying to solidify and if the ridge is retreating it will move more toward south Florida. But, so far that is not a big worry. If she were already a hurricane it would be a worry. While she stays at tropical storm strength, Florida will have typical summer time weather just more of it. Katrina was much much more than a tropical storm. Do not panic and be aware.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Mon Sep 19 2005 02:12 PM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

Check out the MM5 model..

gvl, fl

(Verified CFHC User)

Mon Sep 19 2005 02:14 PM

Re: Rita a hurricane by tonight?

S Fla experienced winds in the 80 mph range with Katrina (not too much more than that.) It is possible this storm could be stronger in 36 hours.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/084708.shtml?chart

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 02:17 PM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

We have 16,000 new residents here in Beaumont because of Katrina. Houston, of course, has more. Also, a mass evacuation
out of Houston would be difficult. I really don't think they should be encouraging people to return to New Orleans this early
either. Does anyone know how intense the storm is supposed to get?

TDW

(Weather Watcher)

Mon Sep 19 2005 02:22 PM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

With the conditions the way they are N.O. I think a Cat 1 would create massive devistation. We are still cleaning up here in Mobile, but if Rita is going to turn, for the sake of N.O. I hope it turns a lot.

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 02:30 PM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

Well, here we go again. Let me say this, the models didn't predict that Katrina would get to CAT 5 with an insane pressure of 902MB. It also didn't predict a more southerly track after it passed the Keys. But with that being said, I believe the NHC is being very cautious, but have to realize this, that Max Mayfield said the N.O. anf the Gulf Coast is not out of the woods. I think that the SST's post Katrina are near what they were prior to landfall. The High to the east of FLA and light winds aloft in the Gulf havbe the potential for Rita to slide right around the high and strengthen very rapidly as did Katrina. Like everyone is saying and now the models are Trending East, the worst case could soon be realized once again. It wouldn't bow well for those people, regardless where Rita strike. I could see a CAT4 96HRs out into the Gulf. Now no ones wants to say it, but we could be seeing another "BIG" storm hit the NGC. A scenario that no one wants to re-play. But till it becomes eveident, I will wait and see like everyone else.

jlauderdal

(Weather Hobbyist)

Mon Sep 19 2005 02:33 PM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

Quote:

Looks like they will shift the track more north @ the 11:00 advisary.That is not good news for S. Florida.Just a little bit north means worse conditions for all of S. Florida.Pressure continues to drop.Here we go again!

they finally hoisted those warnings you were looking for.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Mon Sep 19 2005 02:47 PM

Re: Rita a hurricane by tonight?

Quote:

Quote:

Well it looks like Rita has an outside interest in targeting the Katrina refugees in the Houston Astrodome...wonder if that structure is rated for a Cat 3?

I think they should now be bussed to LA, in hopes that an earthquake will occur there.

Speaking of the Astrodome, I heard just the other day on the national news that they were down to 2000 refugees left at the Astrodome.

You know, I don't know what I was thinking...they should be sending the Katrina evacuees in TX to Miami, now, of course, not CA. It should be the standard policy to bus hurricane evacuees to somewhere else on the coastline that might still get hit during this very active season.

You notice Nagin didn't want those guys to come back; the city is broke and he asked for "business owners" to return!

OK the models are really clustering a little further south than Louisiana, and the NHC official track for the moment is even south of the clustering even after the 5am adjustment (and I haven't checked but the 11am is probably out by now), and they've had a very good track record this season; but certainly the standard advice remains true that everyone on the Gulf Coast needs to keep an eye on it, until it has passed north of their latitude. We're not going to know more specifics about landfall for another day or two, except that it seems apparent now that conditions again will be favorable for intensity to increase to major hurricane status, so we'll probably be looking at a Cat 3 and possibly a Cat 4 in the GOM (but probably not at landfall), and as with Katrina, she'll have to land somewhere.

EDIT -- See, from the discussion: "...most of the models have shifted farther north late in the forecast period over the western Gulf of Mexico...The official forecast is adjusted to the north or right over the Gulf...but not as far as the model concensus."

NHC discussion has it a weak Cat 3 hitting near Galveston in five days (Sat)...wait until Wed to see the 72hr. Plus by Wed aft/evng she should be hitting the loop current; I am guessing at about 85.5, 86.0W, and about 25N? So look for it to hit Cat 3 by say Wed night / Thurs am. Feeling clueless. I have no links at my new job...anyone care to post current info on loop current and whether or not it is still a large factor, why or why not; SSTs may be misleading because there will still likely be some cooler water underneath Katrina's path, if Rita goes further N than the current forecast track.

(Storm Chaser)

Mon Sep 19 2005 02:48 PM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

Just got some heavy rain and it's getting a little gusty.The11:00 advisary is very important,alot of people are waiting for that one before they take action.

(Weather Master)

Mon Sep 19 2005 02:48 PM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

Beau, wanted to make sure you did not think that I was only thinking of the transitioned folks when it came to TX. Nobody needs these things, last I saw potential for Cat 2 by landfall but as you see below, Katrina powered up, and NHC admittedly has a difficult time w/ strength, much better year over year w. track, but intensity is still the caveat. I would agree at this point even a min cat hurr is the last thing NO and east needs right now.

jusforsean

(Verified CFHC User)

Mon Sep 19 2005 02:51 PM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

What warning did i miss???
We are debating weather to stay or go. We live in a mobile home in Broward and with katrina, my neighbors screen portch was on my lawn. So, given that i wouldnt mind if it were going to be a mild tropical storm but something tells me i might want to expect a little more than that. I am thinking by the 11am advisory they have to descide if broward will be included or not. Otherwise we will quickly run out of time here as many people arent willing to make preperations unless they are forced to. Even if it is good to be on the safe side.
Thanks
Gina

Gina - always error on the side of caution as you suggest!

(Storm Chaser)

Mon Sep 19 2005 02:51 PM

hurricane warning miami-dade

Hurricane warning from the border of Broward on south.Track is more north.

(Weather Watcher)

Mon Sep 19 2005 02:56 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

Does anyone know if recon is in the storm right now? If not, why don't these agencies coordinate when a storm is within 24 hours of landfall in the U.S. My guess is we have another Tropical Cyclone Special Update before the 2pm intermediate advisory informing us of now Hurricane Rita.

On a side note, does anyone see the irony of Hurricane Rita hitting MargaRITAville?????

(Weather Guru)

Mon Sep 19 2005 02:56 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

11am is out...

23.N 75.2W:

Movement is WNW @ 11mph.

Max winds 65mph winds gusting to 75mph.

Ftlaudbob: do you mean including Broward or just Miami-Dade?? You said from the border of broward south....meaning border of PB/Brow or Brow/Dade??

(Storm Chaser)

Mon Sep 19 2005 03:00 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

Quote:

11am is out...

23.N 75.2W:

Movement is WNW @ 11mph.

Max winds 65mph winds gusting to 75mph.

Ftlaudbob: do you mean including Broward or just Miami-Dade?? You said from the border of broward south....meaning border of PB/Brow or Brow/Dade??

Starts at the southern border of broward and miami -dade.Does not include Broward at this time.

(Weather Master)

Mon Sep 19 2005 03:01 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

I believe this is current http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 03:05 PM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

So, experts, what is your thinking on this storm once it gets into the Gulf? Our local meteorologist said last night we should be okay
because of the high over us but this morning looks like the track has shifted some. Having evacuated before (with lots of pets)
I know to have a plan ready early. I know it is way too early to tell what the storm will do by the end of the week but was wondering
what ya'll's thinking was at this point. Also, any ideal on the intensity?

(Storm Chaser)

Mon Sep 19 2005 03:06 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

Quote:

I believe this is current http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/

No that is not updated.Hurricane Warning from Golden Beach on south.

(Weather Master)

Mon Sep 19 2005 03:08 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

TS warnings were issued for Palm Beach County up to Jupiter Inlet, which was pretty much expected. At least its moving quickly.

VolusiaMike

(Weather Hobbyist)

Mon Sep 19 2005 03:10 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

Forecast Discussion seems to be a bit late with this advisory. Wonder if they are having trouble figuring out what to say about possible impacts on South Florida area, and/or intensity forecast?

Its out... looks like they are hedging on the intensity forecast, and to a lesser extend, on the track forecast. Nice comment regarding avoidance of focusing in the exact forecast track (skinny black line...)

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 03:11 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

Discussion is up at wundergrond

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200518.disc.html

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 03:14 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

does the pacific ocean storms have any connection with our storms cause they have 3 now? 2 canes and a ts. :?:

(Weather Master)

Mon Sep 19 2005 03:15 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

Lately all discussions have been late

doug

(Weather Analyst)

Mon Sep 19 2005 03:22 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

I don't think that was updated...the statement said tropical storm watches up the west coast to Englewood now and that graphic did not say that.
What I saw on the WV suggests that the push to the west is indeed over SE Florida and Rita may get up that far before she moves into the West mode. However that is a dynamic and will no doubt change...she is trudging right up into the weakness between the two highs...12 mph is a pretty good pace.

(Weather Master)

Mon Sep 19 2005 03:27 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

At 11 am EDT...a Tropical Storm Warning is issued along the Florida East Coast from north of Deerfield Beach northward to Jupiter Inlet.

(Weather Master)

Mon Sep 19 2005 03:28 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

Heavy rain & wind now in Boca; could it be from Rita?

(Weather Master)

Mon Sep 19 2005 03:30 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

Ritas path will be close to the keys over the next 24-36 hrs. S florida should recieve...

Edit ..let's let the Mets and the NHC do the forecasting please. Untrained comments can get folks hurt or killed. Thanks!

tpratch

(Moderator)

Mon Sep 19 2005 03:31 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

Doug, sometimes the graphics are delayed behind the delays of the discussions. This appears to be the case here, as the most recent graphics do in fact appear to show Hurricane Watches up the west coast to Englewood.

YMMV SPSFD

(Moderator)

Mon Sep 19 2005 03:37 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

I would imagine that what you are experiencing in Boca is from Rita. You can always check that, however, by going to WEATHER.GOV and putting in your location and look at the radar.

(Storm Chaser)

Mon Sep 19 2005 03:39 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

Shawn M

(Verified CFHC User)

Mon Sep 19 2005 03:39 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

Hi everyone. It's Shawn, formally ShawnS, from Houston. I haven't posted in quite a while but Rita and her projected path have me a bit concerned. The newest path have her coming inland pretty much right on top of us. The thing that worries me is that this may be a little more clear cut on her path than others in the past that they said would come towards us. Another thing is that we still have alot of people here from New Orleans and the last thing they want to see is another major hurricane.

(Weather Master)

Mon Sep 19 2005 03:42 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

What S florida is getting now isnt directly associated from Rita, just the flow from the eastern extent of the ridge over S florida pushing the winds onshore from the NE.

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 03:51 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

Bob:

Can you provide a link to the imagery on which you've based your suggestion that an eye is forming somewhere that would require a quick northward adjustment of the forecast path? I've poked around at a few radar links, and I don't see the center anywhere other than just WNW of the 11am advisory position.

Probably a good idea to back up that kind of statement with a link to what you're basing it on. (And I assume Max Mayfield did not suggest an eye was forming somewhere that would require a quick northward adjustment. If so, let us know.)

Thanks,

Brad

(Weather Watcher)

Mon Sep 19 2005 03:52 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

I mentioned this last night. Storms in this area can intensify rapidly. The labor day Hurricane of 35 formed in the same general area, went throught the Keys and then up the West Coast of Florida. However it went from Depression to Cat 5 pretty quickly. I wouldn't be surprised to see this make it to Cat 3 by Key West. I still expect a Special Tropical Cyclone Update before 2pm to announce Hurricane Rita. Recon goes back in at 1pm.

(Weather Guru)

Mon Sep 19 2005 03:54 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

Scottsvb.....you are right again! Weather here today is associated with the high pressure system...at least that's what the mets here on the news were saying this morning...that any rain today was from the HP not Rita.

FYI - Broward schools will be CLOSED tomorrow and BEEMA is holding their press conference at noon today.

Does anyone know about what time we can expect the recon info back from the run early this afternoon?? I hedging a bet that she's a cane come 5 or 8pm updates today.

(Weather Master)

Mon Sep 19 2005 04:09 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

well I have friends in the NWS that I worked for a couple years back and also I talk via-email to a person at the NHC (whom I met) so I can get almost the same info as them (except the NHC). I use a blend of this and data I collect to make my forecasts. Conditions for S florida will start to go down hill after midnight tonight.

(Weather Master)

Mon Sep 19 2005 04:11 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

Thanks for the information, loooks like rain here again any minute. The worst thing about all this rain is the damn frogs for the next few days at night.

bn765

(Weather Hobbyist)

Mon Sep 19 2005 04:12 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

One this thing reaches the Gulf it has all the potential to reach Cat 5

(Weather Hobbyist)

Mon Sep 19 2005 04:13 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

compared to all the other storms we've seen lately it looks like Rita is moving QUICK! Anyone else seeing that?

(Moderator)

Mon Sep 19 2005 04:15 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

Brad...I found this is the discussion, but it doesn't mention anything about an eye forming:

MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...DUE TO A
WEAKENING RIDGE AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IN SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE NORTH OR RIGHT OVER THE GULF...BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

As for what was or wasn't said by Max Mayfield about an eye forming, it more than likely that he was on a media outlet (cable news, more than likely) and perhaps that is where Bob got his information. You never usually see him except on TV.....Max Mayfield, not Bob!

Evacuation update: MANDATORY evacuations for all of the Keys. Hospitals are closing and the airport is closing at 6pm. As usual, however, there are business/hotel owners that said they will not close and I am sure that they're are residents who will not leave. My personal opinion on this: if you are under a MANDATORY evacuation order and refuse to leave, then I believe that you should be responsible for any damage incurred, and only those that leave should get any government relief. After what Katrina did, not heeding evacuation orders is just plain stupid.
/rant.

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 04:16 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

As per my post ealier. Maybe a highend CAT4. Nothing is standing in Rita's way to say otherwise.

(Storm Chaser)

Mon Sep 19 2005 04:18 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

Quote:

Bob:

Can you provide a link to the imagery on which you've based your suggestion that an eye is forming somewhere that would require a quick northward adjustment of the forecast path? I've poked around at a few radar links, and I don't see the center anywhere other than just WNW of the 11am advisory position.

Probably a good idea to back up that kind of statement with a link to what you're basing it on. (And I assume Max Mayfield did not suggest an eye was forming somewhere that would require a quick northward adjustment. If so, let us know.)

Thanks,

Brad

They have already shifted it north. [url=http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ATL/atlrecentir.html]http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ATL/atlrecentir.html[/url

] MOST OF THE MODELS AND THEIR CONSENSUS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWARD...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED LIKEWISE...BRINGING THE TRACK
CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA KEYS THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

(Weather Master)

Mon Sep 19 2005 04:20 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

I though the Keys were being evacuated south of Marathon only. THey are opening shelters there.

(Weather Guru)

Mon Sep 19 2005 04:23 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

Colleen - I 100% agree with your comments regarding evacuation. If you have the means to go.. then you should go. The poor people who don't have means, then the gov't should make sure they have a way out. And there are a lot of poor people Key West and througout the keys.

Unfortunately, here in Miami, the overall concensus is that private business owners (like where i work) do not want to release the employees early, because they lost two days with Katrina. Which is so unfortunate, that they look at it as free days off, other than giving your employees time to prepare their homes

(Weather Guru)

Mon Sep 19 2005 04:28 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

Lee: Here...this is from the Sun-Sentinel:

Quote:

A mandatory evacuation for all people from the Seven Mile Bridge to Craig Key in the Upper Keys begins at noon Monday. The noon mandatory evacuation also includes Ocean Reef in North Key Largo. A mandatory evacuation from Craig Key to Key Largo and the Monroe/Miami-Dade County line is to commence at 3 p.m. Monday. There is already a mandatory general evacuation of everyone from the Seven Mile Bridge south to Key West. Mobile home residents, residents of low lying areas and live-aboard boaters were ordered to evacuate countywide earlier.

All shelters in the keys are closed. The shelter at Florida International University in Miami Dade County opens Monday afternoon.

Rick on boat in Mobile

(Weather Drama Guru)

Mon Sep 19 2005 04:30 PM

point/counterpoint

On accuweather, Bastardi indicated that this area is subject to RAPID intesification possibilities. He alluded to the '35 cane that exploded to a cat 5 quickly.

any quick look at the current water vapor loop indicates an explosion of heavy convection right over the LLC....

anyone in the keys who elects to stay, as Colleen so perfectly put it...is foolishness. It makes we wonder why people put their lives at risk. What a disrespect for human life that is.....

One radio station this morning said that they had NEVER registered water temps this high at this time of the year. Highest ever recorded.

how deep are the SST's???????

(Weather Guru)

Mon Sep 19 2005 04:32 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

Sorry all....here's the link with the complete listings of openings/closings

www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/southflorida/sfl-ritaopenclose,0,7178480.story?coll=sfla-home-headlines

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 04:34 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

I'm not referring to the fact that the track and models shifted north. I'm referring to Bob's statement AFTER the 11am advisory (in which the forecast track shifted and the shift in the models was noted):

"There maybe an eye forming,and if it forms where it looks like it will,everything will shift north in a hurry.Max Mayfield also said an eye maybe forming. "

If you see an eye forming farther north than where the NHC has the center located (the eye formation to the north was the basis of your post, unless you mistakenly wrote that), then I'm asking where - on what satellite image - you see that, because that would suggest an even farther shift north than the models suggest and NHC has forecasted (which you recognized in your post - which, again, you posted after the 11am advisory - by suggesting that if it's true, "everything will shift north in a hurry").

I suppose (1) I'm curious to see your basis for the conclusion re: the eye forming more to the north, and (2) if you don't really have a basis for that statement, then the post is inappropriate, based purely on speculation and with the potential to cause unnecessary stress or to spread incorrect information.

Of course there is a chance - a decent chance - the storm will move more to the north (as the NHC has acknowledged) and that Miami-Dade, or even Broward, could experience hurricane force winds. However, I don't think anyone should add fuel to the fire based on pure speculation; that's why I was asking what your source was.

No offense intended, but I do think it's important to either back up such statements with your source, or not post them.

-Brad

(Weather Watcher)

Mon Sep 19 2005 04:35 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

I lived in the Keys for a few years. What they do is evacuate in zones. They don't want everyone hitting the roads at the same time. Obviously withe the direction this storm is heading it will affect the entire island chain. It seems most of the storms to affect them as late came over the western tip of Cuba which let the upper Keys off the hook for the most part. Also to get back in you need Hurricane Evacuation stickers for your car. They are color coded to match the zone.

It's amazing how many times they have evacuated lately with little or no affect. I hope they are taking this seriously and not saying "I made it through Georges". If everyone remembers, Georges traversed all of Hispaniola and most of Cuba before emerging into the Straits.

It's been a while since one ran the whole length starting in the Bahamas.

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 04:57 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

Same concern here as we have 16,000 new residents because of Katrina. Of course, the projected path is closer to Houston at this time but they
are saying everyone along Tx/Lou should be watching it.

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 05:00 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

From Accuweather:

Rita continues to strengthen at this hour and will soon be a hurricane. Over very warm water, the storm could become a Category 3 hurricane by the time it reaches the Keys later Tuesday. Key West is likely to experience the worst of the storm from late Tuesday into early Wednesday with winds gusting to 100 mph, and a relentless pounding from ocean waves. Heavy squalls of rain and wind are likely to reach as far north at South Florida. After passing the Keys, Rita will enter the central Gulf of Mexico during the middle of this week. A large expanse of 85-degree plus water assures that this storm will be very mean and very dangerous as it takes aim at the Texas coast.

Once Rita moves into the Gulf of Mexico it's going to intensify to at least Category 4 strength before making landfall by Friday or Saturday. AccuWeather's current projected path has landfall somewhere between Corpus Christie, Texas and Lake Charles, Louisiana

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 05:02 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

People are taking this storm seriously. Especially after Katrina.
The keys evacuation includes all of the keys Lower, middle and upper keys per the governor of Florida.

It looks as if the track takes the center of Rita almost directly over Key West as a high Cat 1 or a Cat 2 storm.

(Weather Guru)

Mon Sep 19 2005 05:04 PM

Re: point/counterpoint

Rick on Boat - here's a link for the SSTs you were inquiring about. In a nutshell....bath water!

www.maineharbors.com/weather/seatemp.htm

doug

(Weather Analyst)

Mon Sep 19 2005 05:05 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

Rita almost due west now; has developed a good core. I believe the intensity forecasts...looks like the forecast track is holding too.

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 05:07 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

Would not be surprised to see it updated as of 2PM update by the NHC. CDO is well supported now, convection is almost even all around. Looks to be heading still at a WNW direction. Keys to take the brunt of Rita for some hours.

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 05:09 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

I find this to be quite interesting:

AccuWeather's hurricane expert Joe Bastardi says if Rita strikes Texas with Category 3 strength or higher the damage total could be as high as $10 to $15 Billion, a huge financial hit as the nation continues to recover from Hurricane Katrina. The price tag for Katrina's recovery efforts is expected to top $200 Billion.

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 05:18 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

Maybe a little off topic, but has meaning.

The 2005 hurricane season (June 1 through November 30) has been especially active to this point. If the trend were to continue, it would suggest that the Northeast is in store for a severe winter, as there appears to be a correlation between active Atlantic hurricane seasons and very cold winters in the region. There were 21 Atlantic tropical cyclones (which include both tropical storms and hurricanes) in 1933, 18 in 1969, and 19 in 1995; all three years were marked by harsh winter weather.

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 05:18 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

I hope somebody has their thinking cap on along the central gulf coast. With nearly all the long range models shifting east of Houston for late in the forecast, I hope they are preparing to get people out of tents and trailers,...but then, where do they go?

stevie

(Verified CFHC User)

Mon Sep 19 2005 05:19 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

Texas could be lucky and have Rita hit an area where only cows live, like Allen, Gilbert and Bret did in the 1980, 1988, and 1999. The King ranch might be a good place.

(Weather Master)

Mon Sep 19 2005 05:21 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

I lived in NY for the blizzrd of 69, which as a 10 year old was tons of fun. In 1995 I was a home owner who never so the snow and rain stopp, it was one of the worst winters of my life though by tricpets got 2" bigger from shoveling

(Weather Watcher)

Mon Sep 19 2005 05:22 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

Rita is wrapping up quickly. If you didn't know better and had to choose which storm was a Hurricane and which was a tropical storm you'd say Rita over Phillipe. Phillipe looks more like a tropical wave right now. In my opionion 6 hour updates with a storm this close is dangerous. Anyone who reads these boards are weather hobbyists or actual professionals and understand what is happening. For the average person who is going about daily life they are thinking, "why am I going to leave for a tropical storm". They just tune in to the news here the latest coordinates and think, "ah this is nothing". A huge majority of these stations just read coordinates from the last advisory. So if someone tunes in at 4:45 and it's apparent a storm is intensifying and will be updated in 15 minutes, they are still going to get the 11am update and think everything is alright.

Anyway, recon should be reporting within the half hour. I'm still betting on a Hurricane with a Special Update.

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 05:23 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

This is a situation in which FEMA will be handed a double-edged sword. Would not want to be in their position right now. When do you call for immediate evacuations from the local officials, how long do you wait to actually do it. This is already compounding the fact that there are hundreds of thousands of people already displaced, and you are right, what to do with them, and where to evacuate to. My god, how much more can the people of this region, and even those people in FLA can endure.
May god be with them all.

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 05:24 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

Next update expected at 2PM.

(Moderator)

Mon Sep 19 2005 05:24 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

Gotcha....Recon should be out there shortly, then we'll know for sure if ANYTHING has shifted north -- like the center --- and whether or not there is/is not an eye forming.

I cannot see any eye forming, either. Rita is in the process of strengthening and becoming a better organized storm . The bands have just begun wrapping around the CDO in the last few hours. Until she's finished her organization process, there will not be an eye. I am sure there WILL be an eye, but it ain't there yet and until we know it's there, then I agree with you and it shouldn't be posted on the board. There are so many people that come here and just read the posts and misinformation is not a good thing for them. There's already enough people skittish.

(Weather Guru)

Mon Sep 19 2005 05:28 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

Quote:

Rita is wrapping up quickly. If you didn't know better and had to choose which storm was a Hurricane and which was a tropical storm you'd say Rita over Phillipe. Phillipe looks more like a tropical wave right now. In my opionion 6 hour updates with a storm this close is dangerous. Anyone who reads these boards are weather hobbyists or actual professionals and understand what is happening. For the average person who is going about daily life they are thinking, "why am I going to leave for a tropical storm". They just tune in to the news here the latest coordinates and think, "ah this is nothing". A huge majority of these stations just read coordinates from the last advisory. So if someone tunes in at 4:45 and it's apparent a storm is intensifying and will be updated in 15 minutes, they are still going to get the 11am update and think everything is alright.

Anyway, recon should be reporting within the half hour. I'm still betting on a Hurricane with a Special Update.

*standing ovation* well said... I actually heard National Public Radio say we were under a Hurricane watch and this was at their 11:30 news break! I said .. wow.... i am glad I am more informed by coming to this website....

this is a quote from my office email: We are watching Tropical Storm Rita, and right now her impact on South Florida is unpredictable so therefore as long as the building remains open, we too shall remain open.

I just shook my head in amazement.

WeatherNut

(Weather Master)

Mon Sep 19 2005 05:30 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

What I found a little ominus in his forcast is that the path could take out several of the refineries not damaged by Katrina. Not to mention an area that is sheltering many of the evacuees. My advise...fill up your car a couple days before landfall if it looks like the upper Texas coast is going to take a hit so you can weather the gasoline price shock that will hit soon after! Maybe its time to take a serious look at a hybrid car

Storm Hunter

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Mon Sep 19 2005 05:31 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

noaa 43 is out there.... aka... "Miss Piggy" aircraft

URNT11 KWBC 191714
97779 17144 20219 74700 24300 22032 13081 /8009 42220
RMK NOAA3 0618A RITA OB 04 KWBC

not sure what kind of mission right now what N43RF is on... but i will find out....

AF recon will be out there soon...
opps! guess AF is already out there

URNT11 KNHC 191712
97779 17074 20243 77400 15200 05033 16139 /2515
40530
RMK AF302 0518A RITA OB 05

i would expect 70-80mph winds in 2pm adv.

(Weather Watcher)

Mon Sep 19 2005 05:34 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

I don't really see an eye forming. However it appears a huge CDO is forming. Right now there is little to no difference between visible and IR. I was almost thinking there was something wrong with the Visible pictures. Everything from the RAMSDIS sight, the floater and the regular Visible pictures look like the overnight pictures you get.

Storm Hunter

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Mon Sep 19 2005 05:37 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

oh yeah.... i guess i could post the link to the latest radar from the bahama's

Rita on radar

i just hope it doesn't crash there web sever!

Terra

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 05:41 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

Communication is difficult for me when I am not at work, so I only briefly learned of this storm yesterday. I had a few minutes to look at sats and models and the thing that worries me most, is if Rita does track somewhat east of the current forecast, then NO will be on the east side of the storm. The small amount of rain we got this weekend (luckily, the first since Katrina) managed to allow water into my parent's house through the covered hole in the roof, and knocked electricity out for another 24-hours for some people in my area. I do think that letting people assess Katrina damage in NO is a good idea, as perhaps it can allow people to recover items that actually survived Katrina or prepare (as best they can) for the possibility of another storm. The main concern I have is that many people still in the area that were affected by Katrina have no idea that we are in the 'cone' for yet another storm. I spoke to a few friends and mentioned Rita, and because of power/cable outages and general communication problems, they knew nothing about it.

jlauderdal

(Weather Hobbyist)

Mon Sep 19 2005 05:44 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

Quote:

Quote:

Rita is wrapping up quickly. If you didn't know better and had to choose which storm was a Hurricane and which was a tropical storm you'd say Rita over Phillipe. Phillipe looks more like a tropical wave right now. In my opionion 6 hour updates with a storm this close is dangerous. Anyone who reads these boards are weather hobbyists or actual professionals and understand what is happening. For the average person who is going about daily life they are thinking, "why am I going to leave for a tropical storm". They just tune in to the news here the latest coordinates and think, "ah this is nothing". A huge majority of these stations just read coordinates from the last advisory. So if someone tunes in at 4:45 and it's apparent a storm is intensifying and will be updated in 15 minutes, they are still going to get the 11am update and think everything is alright.

Anyway, recon should be reporting within the half hour. I'm still betting on a Hurricane with a Special Update.

*standing ovation* well said... I actually heard National Public Radio say we were under a Hurricane watch and this was at their 11:30 news break! I said .. wow.... i am glad I am more informed by coming to this website....

this is a quote from my office email: We are watching Tropical Storm Rita, and right now her impact on South Florida is unpredictable so therefore as long as the building remains open, we too shall remain open.

I just shook my head in amazement.

we are closing the miami lakes office at 3 and closed tomorrow. employers need to give people some time today to prpeare since it will be rolling in the middle of the night.

(Weather Master)

Mon Sep 19 2005 05:45 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

this is a quote from my office email: We are watching Tropical Storm Rita, and right now her impact on South Florida is unpredictable so therefore as long as the building remains open, we too shall remain open.

I just shook my head in amazement.

We have an office in Boca and went through those issues with Katrina. We told our tenants it's up to them to deicde if their office is open, not us. We wound up manually locking the doors at 5 as if the power went out our electronic locks wouldn't work and leave the building open.

Too many times people are looking to others to make their decisions. In my office I tell staff, if you need to leave then leave.

(Moderator)

Mon Sep 19 2005 05:46 PM

I Wonder......

If you are in area that is under a watch or warning (or both), if there is any type of law or special circumstance that would allow you to prepare your home no matter what the bosses say. I don't know of any, but you may be able to call your county EMA and ask them about this.
I wonder how many businesses in NO wishes they had closed two days earlier....I betcha if they had to do it all over again, they'd make a different decision.
If all else fails, you can just DO IT. I did during a snowstorm in Atlanta about 15 years ago. The snow began falling pretty heavily and I asked my boss if I could leave at noon since I didn't want to be stuck on the highway with people who don't get the concept of driving in the snow. He said no. It got worse as the morning progressed, and I asked him again and got the same reply. Told him I was going to leave at noon unless he wanted to pay any expenses I incurred in an accident. He told me he would fire me, I said "Go ahead, Frank. I don't care. You CANNOT forbid me from protecting myself in a dangerous situation and I highly doubt that a judge would agree with you if you fired me for this." He never did.
Of course, I realize this is not an easy step to take, but you are the only one looking out for you!

(Weather Guru)

Mon Sep 19 2005 05:47 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

we are closing the miami lakes office at 3 and closed tomorrow. employers need to give people some time today to prpeare since it will be rolling in the middle of the night.

some employers only see money, not the well being of their employees that help them make the money

Marianne

(Registered User)

Mon Sep 19 2005 05:49 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

FYI: South Florida's NBC6 is streaming live video coverage at http://www.nbc6.net/videostream/4639451/detail.html

(Weather Guru)

Mon Sep 19 2005 05:53 PM

Re: I Wonder......

Colleen yes i agree with you... right now if i was not prepared i would be gone.... even if they fired me.... but thank goodnesss the only thing i have left to do is get some batteries and fill up on Gas.. everything in the house is in order since yesterday.

(Weather Master)

Mon Sep 19 2005 05:56 PM

Re: I Wonder......

We checked on the law and there is none in Boca Raton. Again, don't blame the building; blame your boss.

When we got hit twice last year I was the first out of here for Francis. Our office is 1/2 mile from a barrier island so I son't beleive in taking chances.

Our firm was lucky, literally as soon as the roads opened people came to work without being called. If someone didn't have power after 3 days the owners offered to pay for hotel rooms.

(Moderator)

Mon Sep 19 2005 05:57 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

Sounds like this may be something you have to decide on your own. The way this storm is wrapping up it could explode at any given moment. If you are in a watch/warning area, you could always print out a copy of the local Hurricane statements for your area where they say you should begin to prepare immediately and hand it to your boss/bosses and tell them you're going to take their advice. The cone is just that: a general idea of where they THINK it might go. If you're worried about getting fired, I don't blame you. But think of it this way: if you don't have enough time to prepare your home and it gets destroyed, you won't be all that worried about your job.

Glad to hear you're prepared...unfortunately, there are probably many people who are not.

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 05:59 PM

Re: I Wonder......

Models (bam and GFDL) shifting south again late in the forecast. Lots of uncertainty 72 hours out. and for what it's worth, temperatures here in the panhandle approaching 100! Ridiculous

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 06:02 PM

Re: I Wonder......

2 pm...still a storm but speed up to 14 mph to wnw

(Weather Guru)

Mon Sep 19 2005 06:08 PM

Re: I Wonder...... *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

(Moderator)

Mon Sep 19 2005 06:08 PM

Hurricane Watches/Warnings

FNC just said that Hurricane Watches/Warnings have gone up for some parts of the SE Florida Peninsula. I couldn't get all the info written down but no doubt it's in the advisory.
I am wondering what changes in the track the 5pm advisory will/will not bring. Like Terra said, communication is difficult. I hope Mayor Nagin and Kathleen Blanco are paying attention.

(Moderator)

Mon Sep 19 2005 06:11 PM

Re: I Wonder......

Go to the main page where they have links to special weather statements...there are a couple there that will give you some insight.

Ed in Va

(Weather Master)

Mon Sep 19 2005 06:12 PM

Re: I Wonder......

Do you have a link to those models...all of my sites haven't been updated from this am.

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 06:12 PM

Re: I Wonder......

Check the main page for the 2PM update.

RECON DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE SIZE OF THE STORMIS INCREASING...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE FORECAST WIND RADII ARE EXPANDED BASED ON THESE DATA...WIND RADII CLIPER GUIDANCE...AND GLOBAL MODELS DEPICTING AN EXPANDING SYSTEM.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT RITA COULD AFFECT A LARGE AREA AND ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK.

(Admin)

Mon Sep 19 2005 06:14 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings

It's Golden Beach south, including all the keys for the Warning. Golden beach is north of Miami and south of Hollywood and Ft. Lauderdale. So Miami-Dade county is under the hurricane warning, Broward is just under a watch/Tropical Storm warning.

Rita hasn't formed an eye yet, and is pretty steady, it's not doing any reforming right now and seems to be on track. I don't expect it to landfall in southern florida, but some of the winds will get close. The keys, however, will likely get socked some.

SEFL

(Registered User)

Mon Sep 19 2005 06:16 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

Quote:

Sounds like this may be something you have to decide on your own. The way this storm is wrapping up it could explode at any given moment. If you are in a watch/warning area, you could always print out a copy of the local Hurricane statements for your area where they say you should begin to prepare immediately and hand it to your boss/bosses and tell them you're going to take their advice. The cone is just that: a general idea of where they THINK it might go. If you're worried about getting fired, I don't blame you. But think of it this way: if you don't have enough time to prepare your home and it gets destroyed, you won't be all that worried about your job.

Glad to hear you're prepared...unfortunately, there are probably many people who are not.

I have been an employer in south Florida for almost 20 years. We keep our office open or close it based on the official hurricane statements. When Tropical storm warnings/hurricane watches go up we start preparing the business for the storm. When hurricane warnings go up the office is closed within two hours. Since the 100+ employees come from north, south and west, they have always been told to make the preparations they need to make, when they need to make them. I remind them but I don't go around and make sure they are getting their own preparations done. I never fired anyone for going home to prepare for a hurricane.

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 06:16 PM

Re: I Wonder......

Ed, the quikest way is to go to wunderground.com...they sem to have the spaghetti models posted first, but most of them are looking at houston

(Weather Master)

Mon Sep 19 2005 06:17 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 06:18 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings

Mike,

That's not what the RECON is reporting. As i posted the previous post.

(Admin)

Mon Sep 19 2005 06:21 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings

Quote:

Mike,

That's not what the RECON is reporting. As i posted the previous post.

It has a circulation center, but it is not a full on visible eye as of yet.

(Moderator)

Mon Sep 19 2005 06:21 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings

Mike...they have issued inland hurricane warnings for Miami and a couple of other cities.

SEFL: Please don't take my comments personally. I wasn't trying to say that ALL employers would fire people, but some will threaten. My husband's boss is one of them.

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 06:22 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings

Lets let the blow hards at FOX and CNN handle the blame game...I have a question, it seems forward speed is up to 14 mph, faster than anticipated..will this make the storm have a better chance of getting picked up by the approaching trough from the NW later in the forecast, or worst? Any met thoughts?

HCW

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 06:24 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings

Experts how sure are you that high pressure will remain strong enough so that this storm doesn't strike N.O - Mobile ?

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 06:24 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings

I would be surprised if we don't have a "Cane" at the 5PM update by the way the system is developing now. Very warm waters, CDO is ominous, and the winds increasing as well as the lowering of the pressure. Tel tale signs that a "cane" is coming.

SEFL

(Registered User)

Mon Sep 19 2005 06:28 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings

Quote:

Mike...they have issued inland hurricane warnings for Miami and a couple of other cities.

SEFL: Please don't take my comments personally. I wasn't trying to say that ALL employers would fire people, but some will threaten. My husband's boss is one of them.

I didn't take it personally. Sometimes I think employees confuse the business policy with the personnel policy. That and the pressure the NHC is under about issuing hurricane warnings because of the impact on businesses.

Last year the employees to the south pick-up the slack. Looks like this year the shoe is on the other foot.

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 06:28 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings

HCW,

Not an expert, but given the upper air pattern and the deepening storm, you have to remember that these storms make their own winds to direct them as well. Depending on the strength, well you can draw your own conclusions. But looking at the models since conception, they have been trending right as the system progresses to the WNW. Does it mean a direct hit, absolutely not, but they are in the cone of uncertainity, and for that, it must be adhered to.

Terra

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 06:31 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 06:35 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings

Quote:

Quote:

If Nagin & Blanco had listened the first time, they wouldn't be in as bad a mess now.

Seems that Nagin is more interested in being on TV then his citizens.

Sorry, its not to topic but......

Fault Blanco all you want, but Nagin has busted his butt to do what he could to help... and he was rarely on TV, since he was in the city doing work. If you don't know what you're talking about... please don't post such things....

Mt thoughts exactly Tera. The mayor of N.O. went on that air to announce the evacuation order along with the GOV to say that this storm was going to have catastrophic effects. For all to leave at once. What more can he say to be more specific.

TDW

(Weather Watcher)

Mon Sep 19 2005 06:36 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* *DELETED*

Graveyarded / offtopic

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 06:38 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings

NO. any thoughts on the trough picking this up yet? thought i would get back on subject

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 06:38 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings

Max M. just said it will be a hurricane today.
Like we didnt already know that eh?

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 06:39 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings

From the NHC:

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT RITA WILL BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... WHERE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO DOMINATE AND PROVIDE A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 06:41 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

We have 16,000 evacuees here in Beaumont. Many are not planning to go back to New Orleans. Some will go back when they can. This area is very good about
preparing for a storm, however, even though we haven't been hit by a hurricane since 86 (several tropical storms but no hurricanes). But it sure would be nice to know what Rita's plans are down the road. Will have to just wait and see...

(Weather Guru)

Mon Sep 19 2005 06:42 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings

Quote:

Quote:

Mike...they have issued inland hurricane warnings for Miami and a couple of other cities.

SEFL: Please don't take my comments personally. I wasn't trying to say that ALL employers would fire people, but some will threaten. My husband's boss is one of them.

I didn't take it personally. Sometimes I think employees confuse the business policy with the personnel policy. That and the pressure the NHC is under about issuing hurricane warnings because of the impact on businesses.

Last year the employees to the south pick-up the slack. Looks like this year the shoe is on the other foot.

SEFL... i am i guess an employee in a larger firm, but i am not a lower level employee, i understand the pressure management can be under to make decisions, however today one of the senior guys said.. no one is getting another "free day off" after Katrina. To me, that is very hurtful, because after Katrina i was flooded in for 4 days with no food and power. As a woman who has travelled to some of the worlds most beautiful islands i hardly deem that as a free day off.

But Kudos to employers like you.

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 06:47 PM

Re: hurricane warning miami-dade

The warning has been posted:

Residents were ordered evacuated from the lower Florida Keys on Monday as strengthening Tropical Storm Rita headed toward the island chain, threatening to grow into a hurricane with a potential 8-foot storm surge. Although Rita's immediate threat was to Florida, rough projections of its track raised the possibility that the Louisiana coast could be targeted less than a month after Hurricane Katrina devastated the area.

hurricane expert

(Really Not an Expert)

Mon Sep 19 2005 06:47 PM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

Right know central flordia look to be good with this storm but if that trough decide to turn it back torwards us than that a different ball game.

Bloodstar

(Moderator)

Mon Sep 19 2005 06:50 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Mike...they have issued inland hurricane warnings for Miami and a couple of other cities.

SEFL: Please don't take my comments personally. I wasn't trying to say that ALL employers would fire people, but some will threaten. My husband's boss is one of them.

I didn't take it personally. Sometimes I think employees confuse the business policy with the personnel policy. That and the pressure the NHC is under about issuing hurricane warnings because of the impact on businesses.

Last year the employees to the south pick-up the slack. Looks like this year the shoe is on the other foot.

SEFL... i am i guess an employee in a larger firm, but i am not a lower level employee, i understand the pressure management can be under to make decisions, however today one of the senior guys said.. no one is getting another "free day off" after Katrina. To me, that is very hurtful, because after Katrina i was flooded in for 4 days with no food and power. As a woman who has travelled to some of the worlds most beautiful islands i hardly deem that as a free day off.

But Kudos to employers like you.

I would be getting my resume out to as many people as possible to propsective employers if I knew that Senior management had an attitude like that. But I think that companies should be able to determine their policy on being open... so long as they're willing to accept the liability that goes with placing their employees in a potentially dangerous environment.

The biggest problem is, With rare exceptions (Katrina being the obvious one), Most of the places under a hurricane warning never see much effects of the storm. As such, until you actually get hit by one, you don't comprehend what you're dealing with. What makes it worse, if the person has a property that was away from the impacted areas, he or she will not understand why or how anyone could be so adversely impacted, and thus, think of it as 'free days off' Doesn't make it right, but it's the very personal nature of how we view disasters.

(I think I'm making sense, someone email me if I didn't

-Mark

(Weather Master)

Mon Sep 19 2005 06:51 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings

Is it me or is everything moving south again under Florida?

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 06:56 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings

U mean the models or the storm itself. I think the storm is moving close to due west, it is just expanding, that is why it seems to be moving south.
The models?? dunno... havent noticed that.

(Weather Master)

Mon Sep 19 2005 07:04 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings

Sorry, I meant the models. I realize that these small fluctuations are normal, but it seems that they all moved. Again this is to my completely untrained eye.

I also noticed the wooble around one of the islands in the bahamasa on the 2PM. Looked like Dick Van Dyke going around the ottoman. (Everyone over 40 will know what I mean).

Robert

(Weather Analyst)

Mon Sep 19 2005 07:06 PM

Attachment

Bahamian theory read view attachment

'I wanted to take this post to talk about something that has had me wondering for some time.
It’s about the Bahamian geography, as we all no the Bahamas consist of shallow banks of white sand
Held in by shallow barrier reefs most of the outer Bahamian islands are coral islands, and the inner
Islands well they are coral as well it seems sandier in my experience. The map below was a map of the
Bahamas I could not find a chart on the net so I colored water depths in my self.
The areas in white are less then 25 feet deep, and in most cases are less then 10 feet.
I used dark blue just as comparison because when swimming in the white you can swim straight off into
The blue, 25 feet to over 5’000 feet in less then ¼ of a mile. Essentially I think as most of the Bahamas as one big
Land Just a couple of feet under the water further there are banks that extend further se off the
Turks and caaicos islands that go all the way to the island of hati and are generally less then 100 feet
If you like surfing, the biggest wave in the world breaks in the Bahamas on any given Monday.
When on the island of Grand Turk in the Turk and Caicos Islands you can see Cuba and Haiti
Due to their mountain terrains
The Bahamian passage is in the northern Bahamas its deep water all the way 5’000 feet or more
And connects the Gulf Stream to the Atlantic, in large hurricanes that are heading towards the Bahamas such as
Floyd, Isabel, Andrew, swell will migrate through this channel towards parts of ft. Lauderdale for instance
During Isabel’s approach at the Bahamas Key West to ft. pierce is flat calm except for a 30 mile stretch in
From ft. Lauderdale to pompano beach it’s was 10 feet.

[I’ve always wondered what all this shallow water can do I think in the case of Frances, it aided in weakening
Him but in small storms that are moving faster such as Andrew or Jeanne it actually helped to strengthen storm.
Joe bastardi said last year during Frances that and in cases of Katrina with a smaller eye the storms feel their way
Through the island chain through the deep island passages.

Just thought id share some thoughts I had.
I may go deeper in to it later when things cool down in the tropics.

Rick on boat in Mobile

(Weather Drama Guru)

Mon Sep 19 2005 07:06 PM

sst's

still wnw....
storm ominous...
one important question.....are the SST's deep enough to warrant speculation of another Katrina type hurricane?....or did Katrina reduce the deep water temperatures enough to keep Rita at a cat 3?

it sure is hot and humid here...real hot and real humid...august like stuff

WeatherNut

(Weather Master)

Mon Sep 19 2005 07:07 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings

I think this is a fairly new model run:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_18.gif

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 07:08 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings

000
URNT12 KNHC 191753
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/17:42:50Z
B. 23 deg 03 min N
075 deg 50 min W
C. 850 mb 1385 m
D. 50 kt
E. 306 deg 025 nm
F. 041 deg 060 kt
G. 311 deg 052 nm
H. 994 mb
I. 14 C/ 1519 m
J. 22 C/ 1524 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 345/ 8
O. 0.03 / 5 nm
P. AF302 0518A RITA OB 06
MAX FL WIND 60 KT NW QUAD 17:26:40 Z

is this old?

Convergence

(Weather Watcher)

Mon Sep 19 2005 07:15 PM

Re: sst's

SSTs are down a bit, but any effect Katrina had was removed in only a few days. Anyway, we probably won't see another superstorm, but I've certainly seen 4s in this kind of evironment.

Rabbit

(Weather Master)

Mon Sep 19 2005 07:20 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings

it appears that Philippe is stalled out at the moment, and the shear may have weakened it to a TS by now; Rita is probably going to become a hurricane within 12 hours (which is why my hurricane total for this year is 9--it will probably be a hurricane before i am on the computer again)

GFDL takes Rita down to 921mb and up to 155mph in the Keys and landfalls it at Marsh Island, LA on Saturday as a 120mph hurricane at 962mb

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 07:21 PM

Re: sst's

I wouldn't bet on that!!!!

Robert

(Weather Analyst)

Mon Sep 19 2005 07:22 PM

Re: sst's

a 4 is a super storm to me. katrina was only a 4 at landfall.

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 07:25 PM

Re: sst's

I agree. The Gulf is like a melting pot for big storms to do what they want. Regardless what the SST's are right now, they are still very warm for a body of isolated water for any storm once it gets into the Gulf to strengthen rather rapidly. But in may be the Straits that do the trick this time. SST's warmer there than the Gulf.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Mon Sep 19 2005 07:32 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings

For NewWatcher - that is the noon recon at the end of the SE to NW pass (17:42Z = 12:42pm CDT).

I don't see this rapid intensification happening over the next 24 hrs that there have been several allusions to; don't see anything higher than a Cat 2, at most, by the time the storm goes over the Keys. Don't read too much into Joe B (i.e. Prophet of Doom), or just one model run. Neither pressure nor winds indicate anything more than a well-organized TS, although pressure diff is a healthy 6deg.

For Rick - SSTs are by definition only surface temperatures, not temperatures at depth.

For Convergence - actually the effects of Katrina on water temps down to 50m would have been significant and much longer-lasting than a couple of days.

Shawn M

(Verified CFHC User)

Mon Sep 19 2005 07:37 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings

They are going to start evacuations tomorrow at 2:00 p.m. on Galveston Island if Rita stays on its current track. I don't really think it will hit here. Unfortunately, I think it will be another LA landfall. I'm sorry to say that but I just feel that is what will happen. It will also put New Orleans on the "dirty" side,too. God Bless to all because this one will hit somewhere along the gulf coast.

TDW

(Weather Watcher)

Mon Sep 19 2005 07:41 PM

NHC Question

A question about those at the NHC that write the official discussion:

How much of the discuss is specific to the expert opinion of the forcaster and how much boilerplate? Do the "higher-ups" get involved with the discussion as the storms approach land or become more intense?

Chevy

(Registered User)

Mon Sep 19 2005 07:42 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings

This is my first year with the whole hurricane thing. It has been a very interresting time. I am trying to learn and observe as many of these storms as possible so that i may learn when to be alerted in my area.
This site is wonderful! I am so glad to have found it.
Chevy

Lake Toho - Kissimmee

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 07:49 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings

Here's hoping you keep your Hurricane Virginity this year, and if not I am hoping Mother Nature will be gentle with you.. LOL Glad you can join us..

Chevy

(Registered User)

Mon Sep 19 2005 07:52 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings

Hey there... we were evaced for Dennis.. so we only had the one this year, had friends that were stuck on base in Biloxi through Katrina.. they are ok though.. back in a safe place.

(Admin)

Mon Sep 19 2005 07:56 PM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

Hey all, please use the Forecast lounge to discuss where you think landfall may occur, especially out beyond Florida.

Forecast lounge link

Discuss conditions in your area relative to Rita here

LoisCane

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Mon Sep 19 2005 08:04 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings

A bit too early to say for sure. Think we will have a better idea tomorrow at this time but either way.. Texas or La.. right now the problem is the Keys and South Florida. And, the Keys may have a very rough ride so.. first things first I think.

Bobbi

HCW

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 08:13 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings

If you look at history you would see that a storm has never hit Texas that formed where Rita did. Is this anouther one for the record books ?

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200518_climo.gif

rmbjoe1954

(Weather Master)

Mon Sep 19 2005 08:19 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings

You are right! Interestingly enough, the NHC is stating that Rita is moving 14 MPH in a WNW fashion and should continue to do so for the next 24 hrs, considering Rita is located 330 miles ESE of Miami I would be very concerned in So. Fl because my math has it continuing on to Miami in 24 hours. Just my humble opinion as to why So.Fl. should stay in tune withe latest developments.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Mon Sep 19 2005 08:27 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings

Latest recon (about an hour old) shows Rita has not strengthened. Also sat imagry show less organization than from say 11am.

Ed in Va

(Weather Master)

Mon Sep 19 2005 08:30 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings

Climatology doesn't seem to be working well this year for the Gulf, but there have been a number of Altantic storms that have followed historical patterns of recurving.

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 08:35 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings

in looking at then vis sat, IR, and WV, it looks like Rita is south of the NHC forcast point, and moving almost due west, even a bit wsw..it is hard to tell

(Weather Master)

Mon Sep 19 2005 08:37 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings

Joe when they say its moving wnw at 14mph...that means thats what the last 3-6hours of motion has been, not what its going to happen before the next update. Currently and overall for the last 3 days its been moving just N of due west about .1N of every .5 w. Right now S florida should keep an eye on it but its mainly a Keys event. (hurricane force winds of course).

(Weather Hobbyist)

Mon Sep 19 2005 08:44 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings

I definitley see that too pcola!! But if you watch the IR for a couple of hours in the loop mode you will notice the "center" is hopping around N S E W.
very interstressing!

(Weather Hobbyist)

Mon Sep 19 2005 08:56 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings

@ 5 PM Rita is still tropical storm
000
WTNT23 KNHC 192044
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM RITA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182005
2100Z MON SEP 19 2005

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 76.5W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 08:58 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings

NHC sticking to its track of a major hurricane coming in at Houston...I believe another worst case scenario may be upon us

CaneTrackerInSoFl

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 09:22 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings

Its not good, if it hits Houston, thats two major cities in less than a month. And many of the Katrina refugees are there.

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 09:26 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings

Here is a link to what could happen to Houston if they get their "Big One"
http://www.chron.com/content/chronicle/special/05/hurricane/index.html

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Mon Sep 19 2005 09:34 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings

The 5pm NHC discussion calls for Cat 3 by around noon on Wed and I don't see that happening until Wed night / Thurs morning. So I must not have correct info on where the warm water is located. I have several links for SSTs but none here at work for water temps under the surface. Any links? Thx in adv.

Sneakbridge

(Verified CFHC User)

Mon Sep 19 2005 09:45 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings

What's the outlook tomorrow for central florida? We live in Highlands county (just a little NW of 'The Lake')...

Have not heard about school being closed but I'd hate to think about buses being out in TS winds.

(Admin)

Mon Sep 19 2005 09:49 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings

Just a heads up to let everyone know I"m going to be mirroring the bahama's radar
at http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?7

Don't use the direct link because it gets overloaded quickly, our image servers can handle a lot more than their site can.

jusforsean

(Verified CFHC User)

Mon Sep 19 2005 10:05 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings

So i suppose broward county will be spared? The scary thought is if Rita joggs last min 50 miles north we are in for it. They models all seem to be in agreeance with each other from what i can see. I am still learning how to use all of this stuff.

Does anyone think that the models will change from here or is it too close to landfall and they will remain the same?

My heart goes out to the gulf!

Jusforsean

hurricane expert

(Really Not an Expert)

Mon Sep 19 2005 10:07 PM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

Could the trough pick this system up and post the storm in danger for the florida penensula?

Ryan

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 10:13 PM

Galveston, TX

looks to be a good estimate for the landfallo, although i'd watch if i was in Corpus Christi up thru Galveston and over to New Iberia, LA. This is expected to become majjorr hurricane Rita, that would be bad news, and with New Orleans in "the cone" this is a scary scary thought.

MissBecky

(Weather Guru)

Mon Sep 19 2005 10:21 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings

Quote:

Here is a link to what could happen to Houston if they get their "Big One"
http://www.chron.com/content/chronicle/special/05/hurricane/index.html

That is very scary! I used to live in Houston, in Clear Lake, and I can remember learning that the area where I lived would be under water even in a Cat 2 (if I am remembering correctly.) I will be praying Rita does not strengthen as much as they are predicting, and that it hits a less populated area than Galveston/Houston.

(Weather Master)

Mon Sep 19 2005 10:25 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches/Warnings

I'm a newbie here too. There are some very brilliant people hear who would agree that the only constant is change.

I don't think a 50 mile jump hits Broward dead on, but it can have an effect. I'm in Delray & until 6:00PM we were getting a real storn from Katrina. Then, the storm "jumped" south 30 miles and it was just a little breezy. I remember the weatherman outside at A1A and Atlantic trying to invent a storm when people were outside eating.

It's not the models shifting, they only run a various times, its Rita. She doesn't really care what the models think.

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 10:45 PM

Rita interfacing with the Cuban Coast?

Anyone else seeing the center of Rita going over the Northern Cuban coast?

If so wouldn't it inhibit rapid development of the storm?

(Weather Watcher)

Mon Sep 19 2005 10:52 PM

Re: Rita interfacing with the Cuban Coast?

Yeah, I agree. It looks like the center relocated to a more southerly postion a few hours back. That part of the coast runs west northwest also. Hopefully it holds it back a bit.

(Weather Analyst)

Mon Sep 19 2005 11:25 PM

Re: Rita interfacing with the Cuban Coast?

She's not over Cuba. Both Radar and IR don't show that:

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?7
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

She's forcast to thread the needle between Cuba and Florida, and that's, unfortunately, what she looks to be doing.

However, her center did drift south...just no where near far enough to make Cuba a factor yet:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Mon Sep 19 2005 11:28 PM

Re: Rita interfacing with the Cuban Coast?

Three weeks after Katrina, the SSTs south of LA are still several degrees cooler (as they are further down in the GOM as well):

http://marine.rutgers.edu/mrs/sat_data/?product=sst&region=gulfmexico&nothumbs=0

You'll have to change the date range and refresh once you link.

EDIT - OK now Rita is entering the area with the warmest SSTs over the next 12 hours. If she doesn't get her act tog tonight/tomorrow morning I don't see how conditions are going to be more favorable in a day or so, between the keys and say east of 89W. Water temps are not cool, but not as warm, in that area, and isn't there more shear near the keys? Will this shear still be in place 24 hrs from now? I think once she reaches south of the keys, intensity will not increase until she gets further west. SSTs don't increase until 90W but I am thinking the loop current is a little further east than that, but have no idea if that is still a factor, after Katrina.

Does appear that cloud tops are starting to get a little cooler on the wv loop, so the anticipated increase to hurricane strength will be coming, we will start to see the pressure drop with the next recon and throughout the evng.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Mon Sep 19 2005 11:30 PM

Re: Rita interfacing with the Cuban Coast?

Quote:

She's not over Cuba. Both Radar and IR don't show that:
http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?7
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
She's forcast to thread the needle between Cuba and Florida, and that's, unfortunately, what she looks to be doing.
However, her center did drift south...just no where near far enough to make Cuba a factor yet:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html

Unfortunately you're probably right, but... based upon the current motion, Rita MIGHT "clip" the north coast of Cuba. It's extremely hard to tell the movement on that radar loop - sometimes I stare and say it's south of west, sometimes I stare and say it's WNW or NW. Overall I'd say it's going to come closer to the Florida mainland than to the coast of Cuba.

Even if that's not the case, that area of Cuba isn't exactly going to weaken a hurricane.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Mon Sep 19 2005 11:36 PM

Re: Rita interfacing with the Cuban Coast?

Quote:

Three weeks after Katrina, the SSTs south of LA are still several degrees cooler:

http://marine.rutgers.edu/mrs/sat_data/?product=sst&region=gulfmexico&nothumbs=0

You'll have to change the date range and refresh once you link.

That's still bath water... and right near the coast it's still hot. If Rita were to make an unexpected hard turn toward me.... no that's not going to happen... but if the storm hits the Grand Isle, LA, area.. that water is hot too.

(Weather Watcher)

Mon Sep 19 2005 11:54 PM

Re: Rita interfacing with the Cuban Coast?

Looks like a big blowup of convection right now. I have a feeling once it clears Andros Island we'll see some rapid deepening. I'm still shocked it hasn't happened yet, the longer it takes the better.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Mon Sep 19 2005 11:59 PM

Re: Rita interfacing with the Cuban Coast?

Quote:

Looks like a big blowup of convection right now. I have a feeling once it clears Andros Island we'll see some rapid deepening. I'm still shocked it hasn't happened yet, the longer it takes the better.

Yeah, I really expected a hurricane by now. The small burst of convection north of the center bothers me. It's as if the center keeps reforming in a different location, with no relation to movement or the old location. A drift southward is followed by a drift northward. Still looks like the Keys are going to get slammed.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Tue Sep 20 2005 12:08 AM

Re: Rita interfacing with the Cuban Coast?

Quote:

Looks like a big blowup of convection right now. I have a feeling once it clears Andros Island we'll see some rapid deepening. I'm still shocked it hasn't happened yet, the longer it takes the better.

I seriously doubt you are going to see explosive deepening. I really don't think we will be looking at a borderline Cat 3 by morning. I expect pressure drop to 975mb, possibly 970mb, by tomorrow, but I think a drop to 965mb or more would be pushing it.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Tue Sep 20 2005 12:10 AM

Re: Rita interfacing with the Cuban Coast?

Quote:

Quote:

Looks like a big blowup of convection right now. I have a feeling once it clears Andros Island we'll see some rapid deepening. I'm still shocked it hasn't happened yet, the longer it takes the better.

I seriously doubt you are going to see explosive deepening. I really don't think we will be looking at a borderline Cat 3 by morning. I expect pressure drop to 975mb, possibly 970mb, by tomorrow, but I think a drop to 965mb or more would be pushing it.

I'm thinking it will be a strong cat 1 or borderline 2 by morning. Maybe Cat 3 on 36 hours. It's got a long way to go before it's a cat 3, but it's definately showing signs of getting there.

ETA: based upon radar, it looks like it's moving north of west to wnw now.

(Meteorologist)

Tue Sep 20 2005 12:13 AM

Re: Rita interfacing with the Cuban Coast?

Rapid intensification is not going to occur until something resembling an eyewall begins to form. There has been no indication of that happening on either the radar or the recon reports, though the last radar image (at 2352 UTC) has something that might be half of a developing eyewall. While the center is underneath the cold cloud tops, the radar indicates that the convection producing those cloud tops is to the south of the center, with not much going on north of the center so far. The system is not very symmetrical yet.

MissBecky

(Weather Guru)

Tue Sep 20 2005 12:16 AM

Re: Rita interfacing with the Cuban Coast?

Outflow is very impressive, especially to the north and east. I notice that here on the west coast they have bumped up our precipitation chances from 60% to 80%, with rainfall totals of an inch possible. Winds are also forecast to be higher, gusting to 41 mph on Tuesday night. As Rita continues to grow, I expect those numbers to get even higher.

Lysis

(User)

Tue Sep 20 2005 12:17 AM

Re: Rita interfacing with the Cuban Coast?

Explosive deepening constitutes a steady drop in barometric pressure (like 30 mb or something close), at various, sustained rates, over either a six or twelve hour period… so be careful with your word usage. As for a cat III in 36 hours… Well… the NHC would agree with you, per their intensity forecast, so your not really going out on a limb or anything.

SEAKRO

(Registered User)

Tue Sep 20 2005 12:18 AM

Re: Rita interfacing with the Cuban Coast?

Not to change the subject, but rather looking forward, any further info regarding 97L or the spin off of this storm mentioned a few days ago?

(Meteorologist)

Tue Sep 20 2005 12:24 AM

Re: Rita interfacing with the Cuban Coast?

I do think Rita is in an environment where explosive deepening is possible, but whether it can attain enough organization in the next 24 hours to take full advantage of the very warm water beneath it remains to be seen. There still seems to be a little shear to deal with in the near future.

WXMAN RICHIE

(Weather Master)

Tue Sep 20 2005 12:31 AM

Still could jog NW???

This is from a local met.:

Brief Update Tropical Discussion On Rita
Palm Beach County Central/South Florida
800pm EDT Monday September 19 2005

A brief look I had this morning on the upper winds at 200mb showed a Southeast flow along the Southeast and east coast of Florida from the upper air data analyzed using the digiatmosphere program...just briefly the crictical point is whether a jog to the Northwest for a small time period tonite and early morning. Rita has been moving based on latest satellite loops WNW a jog NW for a small time could change things for south florida.

We will need to watch for that jog from now thru the 12hr period or so..if this should happen then all of palm beach county could be seeing 40+ winds sustained.

I included the 200mb analysis..from the 12z data i used..there appears to be some motion of the convective field band to the NW NW sector of Rita's center..

I will see how the upper winds show up tonite next few hours..the winds at mid levels are from the EAst Northeast...but the surface winds are still Northeast..that could support a wind field for a center readjustment or slight jump NW..

Again just something to keep very very close watch on..

More on that later...official forecast looks okay but I still have still the concern of that track being possibly compromised just a little farther north...it wont be a smooth track but wobbling WNW and NW..and back more WNW to W once it reaches the Gulf then bending NW again..this has been the problematic tracks of katrina and ophelia due to changing directional winds aloft..!!with height..!!.

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Sep 20 2005 12:42 AM

Re: Rita interfacing with the Cuban Coast?

I'd agree that the temps aren't as high as they were with Katrina but I wouldn't say they've cooled off several degrees. The problem with those SST charts is that they don't take clouds into account, so out of all the pictures you have to look for the 1 or 2 that clearly show a specific area that isn't covered with clouds. Note that Florida Bay (between the Keys and the FL peninsula) has the warmest SST's anywhere.

Here's another SST source that gives a better composite temp.
SST

Convergence

(Weather Watcher)

Tue Sep 20 2005 12:47 AM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

The core is definitely consolidating... IR presentation certainly looks like a hurricane.

(Weather Analyst)

Tue Sep 20 2005 12:53 AM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

As for SST's, they aren't as high in the pocket between FL and the FL Panhandle due to Katrina, but the western gulf has warmed up nicely. Furthermore, the area near Cuba has become VERY warm, well above average:

Atlantic SSTs:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anal.gif (er...NHC has somehow put the wrong one up, but you can still see the gulf)
https://web1.navo.navy.mil/products/K10/moweryk10.gif

Atlantic SST divergent from seasonal average:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anom.gif

---

Also, look at Rita begin to bloom on IR:
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get...mp;numframes=20

DebbiePSL

(Weather Guru)

Tue Sep 20 2005 12:53 AM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

I just heard Lyons say they expect it to become a hurricane later this evening.

Also I think he said it is not anticipated at this time for it to be more than a cat2 once it enters the gulf.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Tue Sep 20 2005 12:57 AM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

Quote:

I just heard Lyons say they expect it to become a hurricane later this evening.

They've been saying all day that they expect it to become a hurricane at any minute, basically. Looking at the IR and the radar presentaiton, though, I'm surprised they did not upgrade it at 8pm ET... although an hour ago the IR image was looking a bit ragged temporarily.

(Weather Analyst)

Tue Sep 20 2005 01:01 AM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

Last Dvorak numbers (~18Z) are 4.0 for Rita - that's borderline TS/Cat 1. With this latest bout of convection, we could easily see her Dvorak go up to a 4.5 or higher, and that would result in a definate Cat 1 at 11pm.

As for Lyons saying only a Cat 2 in the gulf...models aren't showing that - almost every one is hitting Cat 3 now - http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity1.png - wonder where he pulled that number from? Perhaps he meant not more than a Cat 2 when it enters the gulf...that would make more sense.

The last recon on Rita was 2 hours ago - before this bloom of convection started. We need a new recon.

--RC

Tropics Guy

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Sep 20 2005 01:06 AM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

The CDO is greatly expanding and the cloud tops are cooling. The convection appears to be wrapped around the center of circulation now, though an eye still has not appeared. Think recon will find a hurricane on their next pass through.
TG

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Tue Sep 20 2005 01:07 AM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

Quote:

Last Dvorak numbers (~18Z) are 4.0 for Rita - that's borderline TS/Cat 1. With this latest bout of convection, we could easily see her Dvorak go up to a 4.5 or higher, and that would result in a definate Cat 1 at 11pm.
As for Lyons saying only a Cat 2 in the gulf...models aren't showing that - almost every one is hitting Cat 3 now - http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity1.png - wonder where he pulled that number from? Perhaps he meant not more than a Cat 2 when it enters the gulf...that would make more sense.
The last recon on Rita was 2 hours ago - before this bloom of convection started. We need a new recon.
--RC

I'm sure that's what he meant, if not what he said. The last bit of convection has the comma shape to it again, after a bit of a raggedness for a few hours, and maybe an eyewall forming? No eye yet but a dark spot in the upper left near the circulaton center. We'll soon (maybe a few hours) be able to track it better on radar - could be interesting to watch the development, similar to Ophelia.

(Weather Master)

Tue Sep 20 2005 01:18 AM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

Can someone explain the Divorick Numbers?

Also, I noticed a slight south wobble at 8PM, how long before its a trend and not a wobble?

(Weather Analyst)

Tue Sep 20 2005 01:20 AM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

Um...If you're looking at SSD, that gray is even colder than the red, not an eye. That's rare - usualy systems only have a spattering of the grey...this one has a solid chunck (lovely non-scientific terms!). It's got very cold cloudtops - I wish I had numbers to associate with the scale...

(Weather Analyst)

Tue Sep 20 2005 01:23 AM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

Quote:

Can someone explain the Divorick Numbers?

Also, I noticed a slight south wobble at 8PM, how long before its a trend and not a wobble?

Easier to point you toward resources to read up on them

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/dvorak.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html
http://www.tropicalupdate.com/atlantic_tropic_watch_guide_to_d.htm (this last one is for amature guidence only)

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Tue Sep 20 2005 01:25 AM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

Quote:

Um...If you're looking at SSD, that gray is even colder than the red, not an eye. That's rare - usualy systems only have a spattering of the grey...this one has a solid chunck (lovely non-scientific terms!). It's got very cold cloudtops - I wish I had numbers to associate with the scale...

I know. The gray is (to my eyes) an indication that there will soon be an eye, though, considering that it seems like the gray area is growing around a red area (where the center of circulation is). The red is what I'm saying will become the eye, possibly tomorrow.

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Sep 20 2005 01:38 AM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

RC, I saw that gray chunk too and thought...........here we go.

WOW!
The IR has just exploded.

It's almost like RITA just turned the convection engines on full blast.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Tue Sep 20 2005 01:44 AM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

Quote:

RC, I saw that gray chunk too and thought...........here we go.
WOW!
The IR has just exploded.

I thought something a bit more... vulgar.

This thing has REALLY exploded in the last 3 hours.

HanKFranK

(User)

Tue Sep 20 2005 01:47 AM

bad/worse news

well.. crap. thoughts on rita are working out so far. probably a cat 2 as it blows by the keys tomorrow. 100mph winds or so... key west will probably record hurricane force winds late in the afternoon. all you folks in dade/broward and such will probably be in and out from power outages (katrina probably knocked down a lot of the vulnerable foliage last month, and the winds will be weaker, so i'd expect a lot less). monroe county it's a different story... hope the folks told to evacuate got the message.
forecast tracks today shifted far to the north from yesterday as the models latched onto a stronger system and a weakening ridge. based on the synoptic pattern and trends i'd say that rita will continue wnw/w for the next 2 days and then gradually turn nw. i don't expect that right hook the gfs and a few others are advertising.. should come in on a gentle right glide... decelerating at landfall.. but accelerating over the next day or two. think it'll clear the gulf faster than progged.. probably reach texas overnight friday/saturday as opposed to late morning saturday. 00-08z. intensity i'm thinking will be the bad scenario some are advertising.. major hurricane, probably stronger than the nhc official. while out in the gulf rita may peak as a borderline 4/5, but will probably come in as a 3/4. pressure probably in the 930-950 range. should be the strongest hurricane to hit texas since carla in 1961. i'll put a preliminary bullseye at sargent... with the range being rockport to the sabine pass.
on the lighter side of things there's philippe. the storm is underwhelming in light of earlier intensity forecasts.. rita's outflow jet that earlier models weren't seeing is raking across the northern periphery of philippe, shoving it a little eastward and keeping it a minimal hurricane. philippe should probably keep tracking northward and zip out over the weekend as the earlier progged weakness in the western atlantic ridge fills and pumps up in rita's wake and the weakness in the central atlantic stay open and digs phil out. probably get a little stronger as rita gets further away.. and for the meanwhile keep any incoming system wannabes from the east from going westward. the wave near 40w has been sheared upstream of phil as well, and has been spitting out vortices with convective bursts like little fireballs... up nnw and into the shear zone streaking in from the nw. ssd put a 1.5 t-rating on this thing and that is total crap. there's no llc or coherent convection with the wave axis anymore. these pieces of energy are banking around philippe.. maybe keeping the eastern side formidable, also possibly funneling some wave energy around the storm. that little vortex that snuck around philippe the other day has smeared out near puerto rico, and some of its energy chased rita westward.. but this general area will have to be watched down the road, which i'll get into later.
synoptic pattern down the road... i'm thinking it's going to change more than the cpc forecast is calling for right now. i think the 18z gfs has the shift to a more amplified pattern with the ridge progressing eastward into the atlantic, knocking the heights back up off the east coast. this doesn't agree with the cpc forecast, but i'm kind of expecting the persistent pattern we've had to shift soon. joe b has been talking about a pattern-pulse system popping up near the bahamas around the weekend... with that big high coming down into the northeast this weekend the surface pressures should fall west of philippe. so whatever gets worked around philippe into that region will be trying to mix it up. the pressure falls should also act upon the wave that currently has invest 97L on it... which should be near the eastern caribbean at that time. pressure falls on a slow-moving wave... yeah, same deal. gfs shows something coming up out of there, actually towards cuba/florida, early in october. nothing significant near the bahamas, though the nam and nogaps seem to be catching that a little better. just something to watch, for now. other stuff appears in the eastern atlantic as well, though that's pie in the sky right now.
rita isn't pie in the sky, it's a real threat. texas needs to get ready for this one.
HF 0146z20september

DebbiePSL

(Weather Guru)

Tue Sep 20 2005 01:49 AM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

Hugh In my post I said that Lyons said a cat 2 as it enters the gulf also he mentioned they didn't have enough data from recon to classify it as a hurricane yet. He does however keep calling it a hurricane and then correcting himself

DebbiePSL

(Weather Guru)

Tue Sep 20 2005 01:53 AM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

Lyons just said -80 degree C cloud tops

(Weather Analyst)

Tue Sep 20 2005 02:02 AM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

WOW - 18Z GFDL is going nuts with Rita, bringing pressure down to 932mb just as it passes the Keys. That's Category 4, if the winds match! Luckily it then has it steadily, albiet slowly, weakening as it crosses the gulf.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Sep 20 2005 02:09 AM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

the 18Z GFDL is already 6 hours old...I think the new model will be a little less intense

(Moderator)

Tue Sep 20 2005 02:27 AM

Recon and Dvorak

DVORAK LATEST "2005SEP20 0145Z CI=4.4"

Recon inbound. 0205Z-Max wind (so far) at 22.53N/ 77.21W 51kts at 3164m or 10378ft.

Recon now outbound from center.
0225Z Max Wind at 23.45N/ 78.15W...59kts at 3175m or 10414ft. I know those coordinates look strange. I believe Recon came in from the NE and is flying toward the NW. That would put the Max Flt Level wind in the NW Quadrant...so far.

HCW

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Sep 20 2005 02:31 AM

Re: Recon and Dvorak

Looks pretty impressive on radar
http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/03Cienfuegos/CIENFUEGOSA.GIF

(Meteorologist)

Tue Sep 20 2005 02:37 AM

Re: Recon and Dvorak

There still doesn't seem to be a well-organized eyewall feature on radar. Looks like one tried to form about 90 minutes ago, but it looks a little disorganized again.

Ryan

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Sep 20 2005 02:42 AM

New Orleans

i think NO should be ok this time, they lucked out, they will prob get high surf and rain and wind maybe TS force, or the path is closer to New Iberia, LA...but i am thinking more toward Galveston, TX...the next big galveston storm?

(Moderator)

Tue Sep 20 2005 02:43 AM

Re: Recon and Dvorak

Based on the Max Flt level winds that I'm seeing from the Recon reports.
I wouldn't think that her windspeeds are high enough to support an eyewall.

Normal...normal, eyewall formation is near 90 mph. Or 78 kts. Surface winds.
Which should correlate to roughly 86 kts at flight level.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Tue Sep 20 2005 02:46 AM

Re: Recon and Dvorak

Quote:

There still doesn't seem to be a well-organized eyewall feature on radar. Looks like one tried to form about 90 minutes ago, but it looks a little disorganized again.

Looks that way to me too but it's a Cuban radar so I take it with a grain of salt

...

seriously though... the last IR image also looks a bit ragged compared to the very impressive images from the ones before. Perhaps it's still organizing.

Latest recon is in!
GOOD BANDING FEATURES CONSISTENT WITH FL CNTR
ABOUT 30 PERCENT EYE FEATURE SSE THRU SSW

Pressure 992... still not a 'cane, but VERY CLOSE per the 11pm advisory.

(Moderator)

Tue Sep 20 2005 02:49 AM

Re: Recon and Dvorak

H. 992 mb

P. AF304 0818A RITA OB 04
MAX FL WIND 51 KT SE QUAD 02:05:00 Z
GOOD BANDING FEATURES CONSISTENT WITH FL CNTR
ABOUT 30 PERCENT EYE FEATURE SSE THRU SSW

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT2.shtml?

(Meteorologist)

Tue Sep 20 2005 02:50 AM

Re: Recon and Dvorak

I agree that an eyewall wouldn't necessarily be expected at this point, but one needs to be present before the rapid intensification that some are worried about can occur. The lack of organization in that direction seems to indicate that things aren't going too crazy yet, despite the very cold convection that formed earlier. That pulse of convection seems to be dying down a bit, but there will probably be another pulse again later tonight as the storm continues to intensify at least at a slow pace.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Tue Sep 20 2005 02:50 AM

Re: Recon and Dvorak

Quote:

DVORAK LATEST "2005SEP20 0145Z CI=4.4"

Recon inbound. 0205Z-Max wind (so far) at 22.53N/ 77.21W 51kts at 3164m or 10378ft.

Recon now outbound from center.
0225Z Max Wind at 23.45N/ 78.15W...59kts at 3175m or 10414ft. I know those coordinates look strange. I believe Recon came in from the NE and is flying toward the NW. That would put the Max Flt Level wind in the NW Quadrant...so far.

Thanks...I've been waiting for the recon info. Well then don't you think it will still be pretty iffy to go with hurricane strength at the 11pm? The last recon found 67kt max flt winds before the 8pm update and NHC saw no reason to upgrade from TS strength. With the westward movement you'd expect the NW quad to be the fastest winds.

Steve Gregory's blog went with hurricane strength both at 11am and tonight at 7pm (after the recon with the 993mb and 67kt flt wind), and I disagreed both times.

Now unless pressure dropped considerably and they find max flt winds like 70kt, even with the improved presentation on satellite and Dvorak close to 4.5, I don't see hurricane strength. The only argument might be to get the message out to people earlier who might not be evacuating, since we can assume it will get to hurricane strength by the 5am full advisory, but they'll all be asleep by then.

(Weather Analyst)

Tue Sep 20 2005 02:52 AM

Re: Recon and Dvorak

Yeah...it shouldn't be a hurricane tonight, but I'm seeing another bloom of convection starting near the center of the old bloom from a few hours ago. It could be a hurricane by the time I wake up in the morning. I'm quite surprised it isn't yet.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Tue Sep 20 2005 02:54 AM

Re: Recon and Dvorak

Quote:

Now unless pressure dropped considerably and they find max flt winds like 70kt, even with the improved presentation on satellite and Dvorak close to 4.5, I don't see hurricane strength. The only argument might be to get the message out to people earlier who might not be evacuating, since we can assume it will get to hurricane strength by the 5am full advisory, but they'll all be asleep by then.

I think it'll come at 2am since it didn't at 11pm... or possibly earlier if the recon continues and finds stronger winds, which would not surprise me. This has happened before - a strengthening trend in the wee hours of the morning when no one was awake... dangerous situation indeed.

(Meteorologist)

Tue Sep 20 2005 02:56 AM

Re: Recon and Dvorak

Full update posted to the blogs & now present on the main page as well. I'm afraid this might be starting a rapid intensification cycle, as there has been some discussion about over the past few pages of threads, and that we may awaken to something stronger in the morning. The conditions are certainly there; like Katrina did its first night in the Gulf, it'll take a couple more hours to get going, but it might well intensify overnight into a cat 1/2 storm.

I'll add more through the week as I've got the time, but as has been the norm lately, that's not going to be very often. Check Ed's shorter updates on a more frequent basis for quick updates on the storm.

Sheeper

(Weather Hobbyist)

Tue Sep 20 2005 03:04 AM

Re: Recon and Dvorak

The Fl State folks seem to think Rita will near the Keys as a Cat 2 possibly a minimal 3. Response teams (myself included) are being pulled from Mississippi deployment to be ready for a south FL deploy. Rita is shaping up to be a serious storm for south Fl interests with significant risk from storm surge and flooding.

at least the keys is a shorter trip for me than MS!

(Moderator)

Tue Sep 20 2005 03:08 AM

Recon

I've reviewed the Recon data. The dropsonde sampled the NW area of the center. The 992mb is slightly high for her current wind speeds. But we are dealing with weather here, and nothing is written in stone.
Possibility that the NE Quadrant could reveal a lower pressure...once they complete the remaining legs.

My observation was off on the initial flight leg. Recon entered from the SE and flew NW. Normal procedures would be for them to turn and fly the western side of the storm. Then turn inbound once again and fly the SW and NE quadrants. That would give another Vortex message in around 90 minutes.

They have several flight patterns that they can use. Rita doesn't have an eye an I would think that the absence of the Eye would make it a bit harder to find the center. Having to determine the fix by temperature, wind direction and barometric pressure. With an Eye present, they could fly a radar fix.

(Moderator)

Tue Sep 20 2005 03:12 AM

Model Data

ADDITIONALLY...NCEP RECEIVED 29 FL/DROPSONDE REPORTS

IN SUPPORT OF TS RITA OPS AND IN TIME FOR THE GFS START. 11 USAFR C-130 AND 18 NOAA G-IV.

Translated: Dropsonde data is being used in the model runs tonight.

(Meteorologist)

Tue Sep 20 2005 03:14 AM

Re: Recon

The 60 kt intensity estimate was also a bit higher than what would be expected from the earlier flight-level winds, but I believe the earlier discussion referenced some other instruments onboard the plane estimating 60 knots at the surface. The earlier intensity may have been a slight over-estimation, at least compared to what you would expect from central pressure and flight-level winds alone.

(Meteorologist)

Tue Sep 20 2005 03:22 AM

11pm discussion

This is a long quote from the 11pm discussion, but all of it is relevant to what has been discussed on here in the last few hours:

UP TO NOW...RITA HAS HAD PROBLEMS DEVELOPING A WELL-DEFINED INNER
CORE. THIS MIGHT BE DUE TO EASTERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY THE STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. OTHER THAN THAT...
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND IT IS LIKELY
THAT RITA WILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A FEW HOURS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...
ALTHOUGH STRONGER THAN BOTH. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO FORECAST VERY
RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE VERY WARM
WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SO FAR THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED...BUT
THE GFDL COULD BE RIGHT IF RITA ESTABLISHES A BETTER INNER CORE.
THERE IS THUS A POSSIBILITY THAT RITA COULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE BEFORE PASSING THE FLORIDA KEYS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
THE GFDL CALLS FOR RITA TO PEAK IN 24 HOURS AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS
THE STORM FOR THE REST OF THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE
TO THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO BEING LESS THAN THOSE IN THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...EXCEPT IN THE LOOP CURRENT.

(Storm Chaser)

Tue Sep 20 2005 03:27 AM

Re: Recon

I have never knocked the nhc before,But I will now.I was just at the beach here and there is a steady wind of about 25mph with higher gust for the past few hours.This did not happen with Hurricane Katrina.The steady wind really surprised me.And seeing it blow up on radar it was amazing that they did not upgrade to a hurricane.But then I find out they flew into the wrong part of the storm.Why would they go into the south part first?The north part is what affects us the most. This storm exploded,no question on that.I really think this was a real screw-up by the people at the nhc.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Tue Sep 20 2005 03:28 AM

Re: Recon and Dvorak

Clark I have been looking for that link in your met blog post all afternoon! If I am reading it correctly, confirms my thoughts that once past the keys, not entirely favorable for intensification in the GOM unless she hits the loop current (which can be seen on that link), although it looks like Rita will be a tad too far south for that? I was thinking eariler today that the western GOM would have some warmer water, but from that link, it doesn't look like that's really the case, it was only the surface SSTs.

So I was thinking earlier today Rita wouldn't spin up to a Cat 3 by the time she reaches the keys. Then, in the following days, would have a hard time getting to Cat 3 or much beyond weak Cat 3 unless hitting the loop current Wed night / Thurs am. I still think that's the case and we won't see a Cat 3 at tomorrow 11am advis. That core is just having a hard time organizing, and it is going slowly. I think it'll cap out at a Cat 2.

(Moderator)

Tue Sep 20 2005 03:34 AM

Hurricane Local Statement-NWS Key West 11:25pm

TROPICAL STORM RITA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1125 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005

...LOCAL EFFECTS OF RITA IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL MOST LIKELY BE
WORSE THAN THOSE OF HURRICANE GEORGES IN 1998...
...A MANDATORY EVACUATION IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 9 FEET IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. THIS WILL INUNDATE
MOST ROADS AND LARGE SECTIONS OF THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY. A STORM SURGE
OF THIS MAGNITUDE HAS THE ABILITY TO SCOUR THE APPROACHES TO BRIDGES
ON THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY. THIS MAY LEAVE PORTIONS OF THE OVERSEAS
HIGHWAY IMPASSABLE. THE HIGHEST FORECASTED STORM TIDES WILL OCCUR
SHOULD STORM PASSAGE COINCIDE WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. HIGH
TIDES AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL ARE AT AND 1118 AM AND 1129 PM ON
TUESDAY. HIGH TIDES AT KEY WEST HARBOR ARE AT 230 PM ON
TUESDAY...AND 1208 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY.

full statement on the main page, or use the link below.~danielw
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/index_hls3.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=SPSEYW&version=0&max=51

DennisHerman

(Registered User)

Tue Sep 20 2005 03:37 AM

wild predictions wanted!

as to whether or not I will have to go into the office tomorrow!

Kind of kidding but as long as everyone seems to delight in making predictions I would love to run a little test, mods willing. i do respect everyone here and love the site - been here lurking for at least two years. I think the question is topical (predictions abound here) but please remove if you feel otherwise.

Details:
I work for a lawfirm
Office is in Brickell area of downtown Miami (a cat 1 mandatory evac area)
Miami mayor failed to call for mandatory evac
Firm stayed open through normal business hours
Building "closed" at 6:30pm but allowed people to stay as long as they want
people are to call the "hotline" to see if the office is open in the morning
Miami-Dade seems to be well north of the current cone.

So............... am i heading to the office in the morning?

(Meteorologist)

Tue Sep 20 2005 03:37 AM

Re: Recon

The aircraft was recently in the NW quadrant and only measured 59 knot flight-level winds. There is simply no evidence that this is a hurricane right now. In fact, there is no evidence yet from the current recon flight that it is even a 60 kt tropical storm, with the plane having been in the SE and NW quadrants so far. The system does have a radius of tropical storm force winds up to 120 miles from the center, but the inner core is still something of a mess.

Allison

(Weather Guru)

Tue Sep 20 2005 03:38 AM

Galveston

The mayor of Galveston may issue a voluntary evacuation order at 2:00pm tomorrow... lessons learned, and all that...

http://www.khou.com/topstories/stories/khou050919_mh_galvestonevac.727aa428.html
http://www.click2weather.com/weather/4990179/detail.html

My parents in west Houston are reporting people lined up out the door at Sam's, Wal-Mart, and other stores... and they're 75 miles inland!

teal61

(Weather Hobbyist)

Tue Sep 20 2005 03:39 AM

Re: Recon

Quote:

I have never knocked the nhc before,But I will now.I was just at the beach here and there is a steady wind of about 25mph with higher gust for the past few hours.This did not happen with Hurricane Katrina.The steady wind really surprised me.And seeing it blow up on radar it was amazing that they did not upgrade to a hurricane.But then I find out they flew into the wrong part of the storm.Why would they go into the south part first?The north part is what affects us the most. This storm exploded,no question on that.I really think this was a real screw-up by the people at the nhc.

They went in through the southeast part first because that is the direction they were coming from. They are flying from St Croix.

(Moderator)

Tue Sep 20 2005 03:49 AM

Re: wild predictions wanted!

Quote:

So............... am i heading to the office in the morning?

...WIND IMPACTS...
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA METRO AREAS...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40
MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH WILL OCCUR WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING HURRICANE
STRENGTH OVER MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES.emphasis added~danielw
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=HLSMFL&max=51

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Tue Sep 20 2005 03:55 AM

Re: Galveston

Well it's early but definitely a good idea.

I think landfall in TX a little to the south of current forecast, and a large windfield, which leave Galveston and Houston vulnerable and receiving the strong quadrant. I just have a hard time seeing that high moving east quick enough to allow Rita to curve north to hit to the east of Houston (which would be a lot better for Houston), with Rita's speed. If so, those Astrodome evacs will be able to say they went through Katrinarita.

Take my prediction with grain of salt...I'm close to a newbie at this. Would rather put my guesses out there so I can go back later and see how close I came, or not.

(Moderator)

Tue Sep 20 2005 04:02 AM

Recon

0354Z 2356N 7725W Max flt lvl winds 72kts at 3202m or 10502ft

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Sep 20 2005 04:05 AM

Re: wild predictions wanted!

Clark,
I have a question regarding your blog post - specifically sea temps and heat potential. In looking at the current conditions and then the pre-Katrina conditions on 8/25 and 8/26, the difference in SST is there, but not so much in the others. Could you please comment? Thanks!

Last 60 days Hurricane Heat Potential Western North Atlantic.

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Sep 20 2005 04:07 AM

Re: Recon

72kts x 1.15 x .91 = 75mph = hurricane, correct?

using the normal calculation--Yes~danielw

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Tue Sep 20 2005 04:17 AM

Re: Recon

Quote:

0354Z 2356N 7725W Max flt lvl winds 72kts at 3202m or 10502ft

Oooh, finally there...barely.

Well goodnight all. I predict at the 5am 979mb and 95mph max.

BillD

(User)

Tue Sep 20 2005 04:18 AM

Re: Recon

But that was flight level.

Bill

(Moderator)

Tue Sep 20 2005 04:19 AM

Re: Recon

Actually. Recon just transmitted a new Vortex.
Pressure 992mb-No change

The Vortex was sent prior to the 72kt Mx Flt Lvl Wind being found.

(Meteorologist)

Tue Sep 20 2005 04:21 AM

Re: Recon

The NE side is where the strongest winds are going to be found. The SFMR tool that they have on-board the recon says that the surface winds are 60kt, so that's what we'll go with. Remember -- if you have measurements of something actually occurring at the surface, you always want to use those over mathematical/historical reduction factors from aloft. Also, follow radar and you can see the inner-core developing at a fairly good clip now, with an eye evident on 4:08UTC imagery. If this holds, which I see no reason why it won't at this point in time, I expect we'll see some steady intensification overnight.

(Meteorologist)

Tue Sep 20 2005 04:27 AM

Re: wild predictions wanted!

Take a look at the sea surface height anomalies:

Pre-Katrina: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/sha.watl.20050826.gif
Current: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/sha.watl.20050919.gif

The areas of positive sea surface height anomalies are weaker and more spread out than before, albeit just barely so. They are located further north than they were, which given the expected track of the storm may keep it away from those eddies.

Also look at the hurricane heat content:

Pre-Katrina: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/hh3.watl.20050826.gif
Current: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/hh3.watl.20050919.gif

The erosion of the northern Gulf eddy is evident with a very small area of very high values further east of that location. I believe that the storm will pass south of this and through lower (but not negligible) areas of heat content. Overall, things are about where they should be for the Gulf for this time of year, which generally means that a major hurricane is possible, but not a monster like Katrina. I do feel that Rita passing over the central Gulf will likely keep anything forming in the SW Gulf/Bay of Campeche that heads toward the NE from becoming a very powerful storm (but again, this could be relative).

(Weather Analyst)

Tue Sep 20 2005 04:27 AM

Re: Recon

Just a quick note before I sleep:

On SSD IR, you can see 3 red cold zones. Comparing that to radar, you can see that the not-as-cold area almost centered between the three cold nodes is aligned with where the eye appears to be forming on radar. We might see an eye develop for breif periods of time on IR tonight if this trend continues.

Links:
IR: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
Radar: http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?7

(Weather Watcher)

Tue Sep 20 2005 04:28 AM

Re: Recon

WOW. This is the best looking TS I have ever seen. I'm still wishing the NHC would just call it a Hurricane to ensure the folks on the Keys would take it seriously... Phillipe is a Hurricane yet looks like a wave yet Rita is a Storm that looks like a Cane but is within striking distance of the U.S. The time for Semantics is over. I felt the same way with Katrina when she was approaching SFLA.

teal61

(Weather Hobbyist)

Tue Sep 20 2005 04:33 AM

00Z GFS

FWIW, the new 00z GFS is coming out and through 90 hours is much further west. However at 96 hours she appears to be moving northwest. Still waiting on the rest of it to see if that northwest motion continues to landfall or a turn due north occurs as in previous runs.

Well, as I am typing this it is now out to 120 hours and the net result is about the same. Looks like after 96 hours she turns NNW and lanfalls between Matagorda and Freeport Texas. But the trek further west in the GOM delays the landfall about 18 hours or so until Saturday evening.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/index_l.shtml

(Weather Analyst)

Tue Sep 20 2005 04:34 AM

Re: Recon

We aren't talking semantics. We're talking cold, hard numbers. If a storm doesn't have 75 mph winds, it isn't a hurricane. There isn't room to say "yeah, but we should call it that." Recon only found 75mph Flight Level winds...which translates to 65-70mph surface winds...under hurricane strength. Furthermore dropsound found only 60mph? surface winds. Also under hurricane strength. This thing's got an excellent satellite signature, but its winds aren't strong enough for it to be a hurricane. It's pressure is still about 10mbs higher than it needs to be for the winds to hit hurricane strength. Yeah, strengthening is expected overnight...but it stil isn't a hurricane yet.

(I think I said "isn't too many times in there

)

And...dang...she looks strong on Satellite.

Night...Zzzzzzzzzzzz

--RC

Just a quick note...there is no hard and set level for hurricanes in terms of sea level pressure. There have been tropical storms with pressures <980mb, particularly over land, while there have been hurricanes with pressures of ~1000mb. The old number I used to use is 994mb, which is probably a little high. It depends partially upon the size of the storm, the external (background) pressures, the rotational aspects of the storm, and a few other balance factors; needless to say, it's not easy to calculate a true wind-pressure correlation other than the fact that as the pressure falls, the wind generally increases. --Clark

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Sep 20 2005 04:39 AM

Re: wild predictions wanted!

Thanks Clark.
It would be interesting to plot Katrina to those historical temp charts and study the cause/effect.

PS - I gotta agree about the NHC "hurricane or not a hurricane" naming semantics. You saw it with Katrina and now Rita. Most people flunked science at somepoint in school and ignore the Warnings. If it ain't called a hurricane, people don't care. They should have called it a Cane for the 11PM to protect the greater good......my two cents.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Tue Sep 20 2005 04:45 AM

Re: wild predictions wanted!

I think NHC did the right thing in the 11pm: "...RITA ALMOST TO HURRICANE STRENGTH" opens the advisory. It is accurate and does get across the point that by morning Rita will be a hurricane.

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Sep 20 2005 05:01 AM

11pm strike probability anomoly / South Miami conditions tonight

I'm intrigued by the occasional strange output that is sometimes generated in the NHC's strike probabilities. Example in the 11pm strike probabilities: Miami's overall percentage of Rita passing within 65 nm in the next 69 hours is 43%, which is comprised of 42% for the first 12 hours after issuance, 0% for the 24 hours after that, and then the anomoly: 1% for the 12-hour period between 8pm Wed. and 8am Thurs.

I assume this 1% chance of a "hit" that late is based on some strange model output, but it's hard for me to imagine what that scenario would look like given the current weather pattern. The most likely scenarios to produce that - both of which are nearly impossible given the current pattern - are one in which the storm stalls significantly, or another in which it sharply recurves once in the Gulf. An earlier run of one model - the CLIPER5, I believe [and hopefully I am correctly naming the model] - was a very big outlier, I believe showing a path across the upper Keys, or perhaps even the extreme SE Fla. peninsula, and then running more or less up the Florida west coast (and if this isn't clear to everyone, that scenario is incredibly unlikely; it was just one anomolous run of one model). I suppose a slight adjustment of that model, with an even sharper recurvature over SW Fla. or just offshore from there, could result in a slight chance of a Miami hit that far out from now, but that just seems like such a remote possibility - much less than 1%, I would imagine.

I'm basically just pointing out that 1% entry for anyone similarly curious about such anomolies, and to get any input from anyone who knows, or has a guess as to, where that specific one came from, i.e. on what strange and unlikely model scenario it was based.)

I realize there are much more important things to consider right now, but it's a little food for thought to keep an eye out for. There is at least one anomolous entry like that for several storms each year.

And probably a bit more important, current conditions down here in South Miami: it's absolutely beautiful outside; hopefully it will stay like this tomorrow, but of course it's likely to get worse. We've had sporadic rain: a few significant but short-lived downpours, but otherwise just light rain or none at all. We've had quite a few calm periods, but for the most part the wind has been blowing consistently in the 15-25 mph range - a beautiful breeze, keeping the heat index and/or actual temperature very comfortable - with a few gusts associated with quickly passing squalls that were probably in the 35-40 mph range. It's one of those nights that would be perfect for a walk or run if the thought of it weren't soured by the knowledge that the beautiful conditions are caused by something that's going to have an awful impact on a lot of people this week.

Best of luck to everyone potentially in the storm's path - Bahamas, Keys, extreme S. Fla., Cuba, Western/Central Gulf states, Mexico.

(Moderator)

Tue Sep 20 2005 05:01 AM

Re: Recon

I think your Hurricane Heat content is getting a bit high there.

Rita is probably going to surprise a lot of people by sunrise. Hopefully, it will be the fact that she hasn't made Hurricane status.
On the other hand. With the prospect of intensification happening overnight.
South FL and the Keys could wake up to something they will not like to see.
Miami Beach has reported 39mph winds in the last few hours. I believe the bridges close to traffic at either 45 or 55mph.

Key West NWS office is indicating the storm surge could come at high tide. And with the Moon being one to two days from full. This would be an Astronomical High Tide.

If you live in the Keys...Get out now. Please don't wait til morning.

(Moderator)

Tue Sep 20 2005 05:06 AM

Hurricane Warning Area Increased

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND FROM
GOLDEN BEACH ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST SOUTHWARD TO EAST CAPE
SABLE THEN NORTHWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/200245.shtml

Hurricane Fredrick 1979

(Weather Guru)

Tue Sep 20 2005 05:13 AM

Re: 11pm strike probability anomoly / South Miami conditions tonight

And look at the NGOM they got us at 7% at 11:00PM. And had us at 4% for awhile. But if it's suppose to go to TX and we are not in the cone then why are we in the probabilities? Thats why I am saying that I beleive and this IMO that it may take the NW NNW turn more sooner.

(Storm Chaser)

Tue Sep 20 2005 05:16 AM

Re: wild predictions wanted!

Lighting here,experts can comment on that.They can find 70mph winds but not find 74mph winds,interesting.Looks like a major band will come on shore here shortly.Looks like she is getting larger.Things will go down hill from here.The inter-coastal water ways are at a very high level,mainly due to the moon.Some branches have come down.The sharp southern turn with Katrina after it hit the coast started the non-confidence attitude with the nhc.Winds right now are light .The local mets are now talking about the lighting,they say that means Rita is getting stronger.

Multi-Decadal Signal

(Weather Guru)

Tue Sep 20 2005 05:26 AM

Re: Hurricane Warning Area Increased

Local Miami-Dade & Broward TV and radio stations have gone into storm mode in the past hour. WIOD & WINZ -AM stream their signal and some of the TV stations may also do so.

I'm about 10 miles North of the Miami-Dade border and thus far conditions are fairly mild. A bit of rain and a few stronger gusts but nothing much else to report.

Rita is not the one for this part of the Gold Coast...(crosses fingers)

(Storm Chaser)

Tue Sep 20 2005 05:29 AM

Re: Hurricane Warning Area Increased

Looking at radar,we are about to get hit by the worst weather so far.Hopfullly power will stay on,and I can report on to what is happing here.

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Sep 20 2005 05:36 AM

Re: 11pm strike probability anomoly / South Miami conditions tonight

The 4% and 7% numbers are only for the 72 hours (actually, 69 hours) after issuance of the forecast package. Your percentage likely did not go up because of any change in the forecast, but instead because you're now more likely within 3 days of the storm, i.e. the storm is closer to you. At 5 am, your percentage could go up a little more without it signifiying any change in the models or forecast track.

2 other things: First, keep in mind that's a 7% possbility of the storm's center coming within 65 nautical miles of you, not of the center passing right over you. So in other words, if the NHC's computer guidance and forecasters suggest a 7% chance of the storm landfalling 65 nm due west of you, you would still have that 7% chance, even if the NHC predicts a 0% chance of it landfalling any closer than that to you. Second, that "cone" does not encompass every city with a remote possibility of close passage to the center. Some models, as well as the weather pattern that will likely exist in 2-3 days, support a slight chance of the storm heading within 65 nm of you, so therefore you still have that 7% probability.

Keep in mind 2 things: (1) 7% means it's very unlikely, so no need to worry too much; and (2) 7% means it isn't impossible, so make sure to worry just a little.

And I'm kidding about making sure to worry, but definitely prepare hurricane supplies if you don't have them.

(Meteorologist)

Tue Sep 20 2005 05:49 AM

Re: 11pm strike probability anomoly / South Miami conditions tonight

The probabilities relate the chance that the center of the storm will pass within 65 miles of the region within the next 72hr. Any storm more than 2 days out is going to have a wide range of probabilities at the later periods, both in number and over a large area. Or, in other words, even for an expected perfect track forecast at 72hr, you would still see areas up to 200mi on either side of the cone listed in the probabilities.

Note that for Rita, over 3 days from landfall, the probabilities are going to be rather low and weighted toward areas closer to the coastline along the Northern Gulf of Mexico -- like New Orleans -- and not to where the actual track takes the storm. Climatology, avg. track error, model spread, and a number of other factors go into determining these probabilities and, yes, you will see some weird results from time to time as a result of some of the factors. I wouldn't pay much attention to a 1% value, though -- it's more than likely mathematical rounding.

Simply put, the current wind product is a useful tool, but has its limitations and is rather easy to misinterpret. The NHC is working on a new tool -- http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT3+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml as a current example for Rita -- to try to better represent a storm's potential impacts, with one of the simplest improvements being that the track forecast and wind probabilities now both go to 5 days apiece. In this product, as of 11p Monday, Galveston, TX has the highest probability at 44% for cities in terms of the second landfall. But, you see some non-zero probabilities for other areas, just in case the storm does something unexpected.

Look at it this way: I don't believe the storm has a shot to impact Tallahassee, where I am located. But, say the unexpected were to occur and it turned northward. There is precedent for something like that, it is within the realm of accumulated track error (not for one forecast, but a series of them), and thus you see a non-zero porbability (here, 7%). A similar interpretation can be applied to the older product, just keeping in mind the limitations inherent to any such product.

(Moderator)

Tue Sep 20 2005 05:56 AM

What You didn't want to see

URNT12 KNHC 200547
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/05:22:30Z
B. 23 deg 32 min N
078 deg 37 min W
C. 700 mb 3031 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 053 deg 064 kt
G. 315 deg 044 nm
H. 991 mb down 1 mb since last Vortex~danielw
I. 9 C/ 3040 m
J. 13 C/ 3042 m
K. 8 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF304 0818A RITA OB 19
MAX FL WIND 72 KT NE QUAD 03:54:00 Z

(Storm Chaser)

Tue Sep 20 2005 05:59 AM

Re: 11pm strike probability anomoly / South Miami conditions tonight

Clark,I am getting lighting here,is it true that means a storm getting stronger?Rita the greatest tropical storm that ever lived!!!!

(Meteorologist)

Tue Sep 20 2005 06:22 AM

Re: 11pm strike probability anomoly / South Miami conditions tonight

Lightning and tropical cyclone strength/intensity are not very well correlated. Lightning activity deals with charge separation and ice content; perhaps with very cold cloud tops (e.g. a greater amount of ice -- note that it takes temperatures to -40C before all water in the upper atmosphere is frozen; the reasoning behind that is best saved for another day) you could be seeing a bit more lightning, but otherwise intensity change and lightning aren't very well correlated.

(Weather Master)

Tue Sep 20 2005 06:24 AM

Re: wild predictions wanted!

I know @ the 11, the clouds tops were very cold @ -80 so at that time def getting stronger

(Moderator)

Tue Sep 20 2005 06:36 AM

Updated Tropical Storm Warning 202AM EDT

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
202 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005
..RAINBANDS INCREASING IN FREQUENCY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA

..AREAS AFFECTED THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR PERSONS IN MIAMI-DADE... MAINLAND MONROE...BROWARD...COLLIER...PALM BEACH...HENDRY...AND GLADES COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

..NEW INFORMATION AT 130 AM EDT...THE INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS82-KMFL.shtml

BTfromAZ

(Weather Hobbyist)

Tue Sep 20 2005 07:50 AM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

Dr. Jeff masters at Weather Underground is now saying it's a hurricane and is predicting it could exceed the damage done by Hurricane Georges in 1998 which they claim was the worst recorded hurricane in Key West (I had thought the 1935 storm was the worst but that is what they are saying): http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

(Moderator)

Tue Sep 20 2005 08:23 AM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

I guess he has been reading the Hurricane Local Statements from Key West NWS Office.

Based on the 0709Z Vortex.
Rita is Still a Tropical Storm.

Pressure is down 3mb to 988mb.
Max Flt Level Wind 64kt NW Quad 0509Z

Update to the HLS from NWS Key West:
TROPICAL STORM RITA LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
335 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

...EVACUATION IS NO LONGER RECOMMENDED DUE TO DETERIORATING WEATHER
CONDITIONS...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL STORM PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED AND FURTHER EVACUATIONS
ARE NOT ADVISABLE DUE TO DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS.
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS WHO HAVE REMAINED IN THE KEYS SHOULD STAY IN PLACE OR
SEEK SHELTER AT THE FOLLOWING REFUGES OF LAST RESORT:

IN KEY WEST...
HARVEY GOVERNMENT CENTER...1200 TRUMAN AVENUE.
CROWN PLAZA LA CONCHA...403 DUVAL STREET.
WYNDAM CASA MARINA RESORT...1500 REYNOLDS STREET.

ON DUCK KEY...
HAWKS CAY RESORT...MILE MARKER 61.

IN ISLAMORADA...
ISLAMORADA LIBRARY...MILE MARKER 81.5.
ISLAND CHRISTIAN SCHOOL...MILE MARKER 83.4.

ON PLANTATION KEY...ST. JAMES EPISCOPAL CHURCH.
IN TAVERNIER...TAVERNIER HEALTH DEPARTMENT...148 GEORGIA AVE.

IN KEY LARGO...
WESTIN BEACH RESORT...MILE MARKER 98.
MARRIOT KEY LARGO BAY BEACH RESORT...MILE MARKER 103.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS82-KEYW.shtml

(Weather Guru)

Tue Sep 20 2005 08:42 AM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

its 4:41 am... in southern dade county... very quiet so far... i woke up in time for the 5 am....

flarrfan

(Verified CFHC User)

Tue Sep 20 2005 10:33 AM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

Quote:

Dr. Jeff masters at Weather Underground is now saying it's a hurricane and is predicting it could exceed the damage done by Hurricane Georges in 1998 which they claim was the worst recorded hurricane in Key West (I had thought the 1935 storm was the worst but that is what they are saying)

Just as a historical note, the 1935 Labor Day storm was a very compact hurricane, fortunately...its damage was focused on the middle keys from roughly Islamorada to Marathon. Key West had some rain, but that was about it.

As for Rita, I woke up this am expecting some real serious overnight intensification and found none, as well as continued movement that should take the worst of the weather thru the Straits rather than over the Keys. Good chance for the Keys to "dodge the bullet" on this one (but then again that's what we thought about NOLA around mid-afternoon on 8/29).

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Tue Sep 20 2005 10:39 AM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

Quote:

As for Rita, I woke up this am expecting some real serious overnight intensification and found none, as well as continued movement that should take the worst of the weather thru the Straits rather than over the Keys. Good chance for the Keys to "dodge the bullet" on this one (but then again that's what we thought about NOLA around mid-afternoon on 8/29).

Watching the short range radar... Key West appears to be headed for nasty weather in the next few hours. The mainland will probably dodge the bullet, but the Keys, I wouldn't say a "good chance" of it... depends upon the wobbles at the time, probably. My best estimate is that Key West gets hurricane fortce gusts, if not sustained winds.

As for lack of strengthening... the difference between 73 mph winds and 74 mph winds isn't really significant. Since the NHC only reports wind speeds at 5 knot increments, the winds could be anywhere from 58 - 62 knots and they would call it 60 (70 mph), I think. The radar presentation looks like there is an eyewall on the north side which is what Key West will get.

(Weather Guru)

Tue Sep 20 2005 10:42 AM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

its 6:41 a.m. here in south west miami dade county and the wind and rain is really picking up and has been steady for the past 1/2 hour.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Tue Sep 20 2005 10:46 AM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

Quote:

its 6:41 a.m. here in south west miami dade county and the wind and rain is really picking up and has been steady for the past 1/2 hour.

Hang in there - you should catch a break in a few minutes. The band is just about to pass out of Miami. That looks to be the worst that Miami-Dade will experience if the storm continues on the track its on, unless there is something beyond radar range. The Keys are obviously a different story.

Susan in Jupiter, FL

(Verified CFHC User)

Tue Sep 20 2005 11:00 AM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

I'm in Jupiter, FL. I usually just read the discussions and don't post much, but I'll do a few posts throughout the day today to keep everyone updated on the weather here.

Hope everyone stays safe!!

Susan in Jupiter, FL

(Verified CFHC User)

Tue Sep 20 2005 11:02 AM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

At 5:30 a.m. today, just a little breezy; clouds were very low, moving fast, and actually very beautiful.
About 20 minutes ago, just had a little rain go through. Now the sky is a beautiful color of blue and pink!

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Tue Sep 20 2005 11:06 AM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

Well she didn't get it tog overnight. I should have got that. Last night I caved just before I went to bed and overestimated how quickly she'd be coming along by this morning. She does look better than when I went to bed though, definitely better organized. Now it looks like mid-morning before reaching hurricane status, then I don't see how she could strengthen too much in the GOM until she gets out as far as say 87W (less shear, a little bit of warmer water). She's going faster than I thought so instead of Wed night / Thurs morning, I guess we're looking at that happening earlier, but again not staying that strong all the way to landfall. Well at least I'm seeing the more westward trend that I thought from yesterday evening.

edit -- seeing a ragged but definite center of circ on Keys long-range radar

flarrfan

(Verified CFHC User)

Tue Sep 20 2005 11:08 AM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

Quote:

Quote:

. The mainland will probably dodge the bullet, but the Keys, I wouldn't say a "good chance" of it... depends upon the wobbles at the time, probably. My best estimate is that Key West gets hurricane fortce gusts, if not sustained winds.

Maybe "good chance" not the best choice of phrase, but compared to yesterday's intensity forecasts of possible Cat 2 on top of Key West, a Cat 1 center passing over the straits rather than the island, even with some NE "eyewall" involvement, probably won't give them much more than they had with Katrina, which was underforecast for them. Hopefully, Key West will not see much more than what they saw three weeks ago.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Tue Sep 20 2005 11:39 AM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

What's the deal with the radar? Just got caught up. and both Key West and Miami missing like two hours of data. The first image after that just showed up, 11:29Z, looking much better. Strong band almost surrounds the center now.

OK when I get back after the morning shower, the 8am will be out and we will probably have Hurricane Rita.

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Sep 20 2005 12:12 PM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

Rita seems to quite happy being a tropical storm.
Not quite the bomb some thought at least not thus far.

I wonder if it's possible for Rita to be a tropical storm all the
way across the Gulf. My hope is that at best Rita only makes it
to a Cat 1 and ony blows down tree limbs and power lines.

I'm ready for this season to be over.

Terra

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Sep 20 2005 12:13 PM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

Nope... still not a cane at 8AM.... but, they are waiting for recon to really answer that question. I've never understood why the recon flights are scheduled to provide data just *after* an advisory time.... Bizarre.

HCW

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Sep 20 2005 12:33 PM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

Dr Lyons on TWC has been screaming that it's a cane for going on 18 hours now. Anyone have any recent recon data ?

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Tue Sep 20 2005 12:43 PM

Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Florida Keys

OK so the SW to NE supplemental recon info tallies with the lopsided appearance of the convection on sat image. Well I am thinking if they find a stronger wind in the NW quad, then update to hurricane status, as pressure is dropping and temp diff is still very strong (7 deg). But that is not at all a sure thing, looking at radar. If not...the core will tighten up in a couple hours and then the winds should increase a little, enough to bring it to hurricane status.

So is shear the main factor? I saw shear on the outflow all yesterday aft but outflow still seemed to continue and to be going strong at the time, much better actually than this morning...does shear affect the stabilization of the core?