MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 11:12 AM |
Category 2 Hurricane Rita in the Florida Straits
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6:30PM
Huricane Rita is now moving west and away from the Keys, but the back side of the large storm is affecting the coast, spawning tornadoes and waterspouts. 75MPH sustained winds were reported at Key West with gusts over 100MPH. The core of the eyewall remained south of Key west, barely.
The latest recon report has the pressure down to 970 millibars.
The future track has not changed as of yet, as the attention beginds to focus more on the Gulf coast, especially middle-north Texas.
1:45PM
Rita is now a category 2 hurricane with 100MPH winds, a new advisory at 2PM Will reflect this.
9:15AM
Rita is now officially a category 1 Hurricane. A Special statement to this regard was released by the Hurricane Center.
The next official advisory at 11AM will reflect this.
Live version of this radar courtesy HCW
Animated Version Mirror
Original Update
Rita is still a strong Tropical Storm near the Southwestern bahamas, quickly moving generally westward with a hint of north movement. Rita is now visible on radar and we're recording the radar images here.
It is still expected to become a hurricane, but it did not overnight like we previously though, so that is a little bit of good news, it doesn't have as much a chance to develop before approaching the Keys. Conditions are positive for strengthening, but not overly so. Which is a also another small bit of good news.
Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com
Comments/Feedback on the maps look here.
Rita has leveled off overnight and is still moving quite rapidly to the west. It is still likely to pass just to the south of Key West and enter into the Gulf, possibly nearing Key West as or near a Category 2 Hurricane. If the track continues, hurricane force winds will be confined to parts of the Keys.
Beyond the Florida Keys, it should enter into the Gulf. The forecast track shifted a bit west toward the middle texas coast, with the cone south to Northern Mexico an east toward Middle Louisiana.
As far as the Gulf is concerned there is still a lot of uncertainty, it is best to not concentrate more on that track until after it passes west of Florida.
Warnings and watches have not changed since last night.
Philippe is still heading out to sea, and the wave east of the Leeward islands has a very low chance to develop, at least for the next several days.
Report rita conditions in your area here.
More to come later.
Event-Related Links
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Cuban Radar
Spaghetti Style model plots from Colorado State University
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Miami, Key West, Melbourne
CFHC Long term Key West Radar Recording of Rita
CFHC Long term Bahamas Radar Recording of Rita
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Emergency Management/County info
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Broward County Emergency Management
Palm Beach County emergency managment
Miami-Dade County Emergency Management
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Video/Audio
Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, is doing his live audio show as Rita approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here
Ross from Suncam.tv is streaming video and webcams from the landfall area
Marc Sudduth will likely also be in the area see his live streaming video and audio here
Reply and let us know of other links.
Rita
Animated model plots of Rita
Google Map plot of Rita
Floater satellite loops (With forecast track overlay):
Rita Floater Visible Satellite Loop
Rita Floater Infrared Satellite Loop
Rita Floater Shortwave Infrared Satellite Loop
Rita Dvorak Loop
Rita Water Vapor Loop
Philippe
Animated model plots of Philippe
97L
| Cindi |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 11:35 AM |
Re: Rita Nears Hurricane Strength Heading for the Florida Straits
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Please forgive my ignorance, but what is keeping Rita from making landfall along the NE Gulf (i.e. Panama City area?) How certain is the current track? Should I make preparations already? I have most of water/food etc from earlier in the season. Should I go on and make arrangements to leave? Seems like from past experience with hurricanes, they tend to go the opposite way of where they were initally predicted to go. I am sick of hurricanes...
|
MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 11:40 AM |
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Re: Rita Nears Hurricane Strength Heading for the Florida Straits
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Quote:
Please forgive my ignorance, but what is keeping Rita from making landfall along the NE Gulf (i.e. Panama City area?) How certain is the current track? Should I make preparations already? I have most of water/food etc from earlier in the season. Should I go on and make arrangements to leave? Seems like from past experience with hurricanes, they tend to go the opposite way of where they were initally predicted to go. I am sick of hurricanes...
It's not going anywhere near the panhandle, there is nothing that could take it that way, and it is too far south.
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 11:40 AM |
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Re: Rita Nears Hurricane Strength Heading for the Florida Straits
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Cindi
The confidence on the intial track and motion is very high. There is nothing to suggest a northward motion at this time. Breathe easily for now
| Joshua |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 11:44 AM |
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Re: Rita Nears Hurricane Strength Heading for the Florida Straits
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Quote:
Please forgive my ignorance, but what is keeping Rita from making landfall along the NE Gulf (i.e. Panama City area?) How certain is the current track? Should I make preparations already? I have most of water/food etc from earlier in the season. Should I go on and make arrangements to leave? Seems like from past experience with hurricanes, they tend to go the opposite way of where they were initally predicted to go. I am sick of hurricanes...
Basically, CIndi, a large high pressure ridge to the north of Rita and a low pressure system to the south are keeping it on a westward to west-north-westward movement currently. But, if these systems deviate any to the north or south, or weaken in any specific area along the forecasted path, it could jog a little bit. The best thing to do would be to have supplies with you from June 30 - November 1. This is a must if you live anywhere along the coast!!
- Josh
| bigpapi |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 12:32 PM |
Re: Rita Nears Hurricane Strength Heading for the Florida Straits
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I believe Recon has found a Hurricane. Pressure down to 985 and winds so far in the NW quadrant at 78 knots. I don't think they are done yet though.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 01:02 PM |
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Re: Rita Nears Hurricane Strength Heading for the Florida Straits
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Here's recon (HCW requested it in the old thread):
501
URNT12 KNHC 201216
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/12:03:50Z
B. 23 deg 43 min N
080 deg 20 min W
C. 850 mb 1309 m
D. 55 kt
E. 113 deg 056 nm
F. 186 deg 069 kt
G. 110 deg 044 nm
H. 985 mb
I. 14 C/ 1526 m
J. 21 C/ 1524 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. OPEN S
M. E220/50/40
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 1018A RITA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 69 KT E QUAD 11:50:20 Z
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 01:08 PM |
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Re: Rita Nears Hurricane Strength Heading for the Florida Straits
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They said she was forecast to hit further south because of the fast movement of the storm. If she slows down a bit is there a chance
of a more central or upper Texas coast hit? Yesterday the track looked more north Texas. Could it shift back or is it pretty certain
it will go more south? How confident is the track this far out? Also, what is causing the fast movement?
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 01:13 PM |
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Re: Rita Nears Hurricane Strength Heading for the Florida Straits
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"Look at the cone"
- all of Texas is still under threat. So are parts of Louisiana. This thing is still 5 days out...Models are still showing anywhere on the Texas coast:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/late1.png
--RC
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 01:13 PM |
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miami@ 9... norcross thoughts on pressure..& Hurricane Status finally
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he is very surprised that a storm with the low pressure that this storm does have.... is not a hurricane, waiting like everyone to hear what recon and nhc decides.. but as he says..its nhc's call
and also surprised as we all are that it never became a hurricane last night
agreed...went to sleep at midnight and thought it would easily be a strong 1 by morning and never did it..
woke up at 4am to heavy rain band, very heavy and woke up at 7am to what looked like a replay of miami and georges.. over preparation (which is good...better safe than sorry) and just a lot of wind
breezy, blustery..waiting for an hour or so and probably going out
announces now it is Hurricane Rita
So...bryan is no longer surprised on that one
guess bastardi can stop clenching his teeth too
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 01:18 PM |
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Re: miami@ 9... norcross thoughts on pressure..& Hurricane Status finally
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It is a hurricane now. Will be reflected on the 11 am advisory.
I realize all of Texas is in the cone but I know landfall depends alot on what the high over us does. The speed that the hurricane
moves will also be important. So I was just wondering if she could slow down some or if the high could break up sooner. Any thoughts
on that?
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 01:23 PM |
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texas
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wondering if she might take a bend south on her track west... or go low enough to come close to tex/mex border
i mean if nothing is there to pull her north.. why wouldn't she come in south of 25?
if she holds speed
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 01:31 PM |
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Re: texas
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well that good thing is that Rita is moving so fast that hopefully she won't get alot of time to build/get a chance to turn north or stall/turn north north-east...
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 01:49 PM |
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Re: texas
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Surely you jest. I did see some models hinting at a rounding of the florida peninsula last night, but I am sure that every one knows exactly where this storm is going at this point. We here in West Central Florida would appreciate some rain from any bands that might come our way. I am wondering about the article I read earlier in the year. I will place the link for those to read while waiting for the next report. It is very interesting in light of the actual first half of the hurricane season. The title is: The Case Against Florida
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Florida/
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 01:53 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Rita Heading for the Florida Straits
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One interesting tidbit. In all the time of keeping records there has never been a storm that started where Rita did that will have made
landfall as far west as where she is projected to make landfall. In fact, I believe all of the storms that started forming where she did
ended up hitting Louisiana or east of there. So this would be a first if she hits Texas, or even north Mexico.
| bigpapi |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 01:54 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Rita Heading for the Florida Straits
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Pressure down again to 982. This could be the rapid deepening people alluded to.
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 02:00 PM |
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Re: texas
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LOL floridians always think every hurricane is going to swing around and hit the panhandle.
No, there's absolutely nothing that is going to force this to stall anywhere near florida before turning it N/N-E. It really looks like its going to burn in to texas without any noticable change of direction other than a slight N-W/W turn.Your link was quite enjoyable and makes alot of sense for increased watchfullness for other hurricanes, just not this one.
The problem with FLA caine's is the lack of warning before they ram themselves into what could be a fairly large landing cone. At least with GOM ones you can get 5-6 days of a fairly decent track.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 02:22 PM |
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Re: texas
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Just a quick note - just got to work and saw the 9:15. Driving in I was envisioning a conversation...radioing the recon pilot, "hey could you just keep flying around up there until you find a 75kt or 80kt flight wind? Please!!!..."
Gotta go to training, catch up with you all later.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 02:34 PM |
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radar
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Looks like the NE quadrant of the storm has really dried out for the time being. Overall, though, the system looks better than it did last night... there is actually an inner core, albeit one that is not completely closed around the center.
Also, the system appears to be headed due west right now, a trend which would spare the Keys a worse fate if it holds for the next few hours.
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 02:38 PM |
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Re: texas
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LOL I agree...after Katrina there are going to be alot of false alarms/people seeing eyewalls doing things that they just aren't doing. It's going to be very hard to stay focused and be objective with every piece of data that comes out of not only Rita but the next 10 or so storms which we encounter.
The good that came out of Katrina is at least people have a wakeup call as to what can happen if people do not take every possible step to get the heck out of the way of these storms. Boards on your windows don't stop 30 foot seas. Maybe this time people will remember longer than 5 years what can happen.
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 02:51 PM |
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Re: radar
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The us might hate cuba but cuba being right under florida takes alot of potential open water energy away from any hurricane going between them, I expect that Rita is going to stay somewhat stable in speed/strength for the next couple hours until it comes out the other other of what I call the Flunnel(Florida/Cuba Funnel). I see it turning into a solid CAT1 within a couple hours as it really is quite well formed right now.
Predictions: Texas coast right along the NHC track, strong CAT2-weak CAT3 UNLESS it slows down.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 02:54 PM |
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Re: radar
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You can now see an eye forming on IR:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 03:04 PM |
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ne quandrant just got drier? not up here in NMB or S Broward
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We have had nonstop bands of strong rain and wind for the last hour or so. Not far apart.. almost constant though some are much stronger than others.
Son in Hollywood lost power as big transformer blew.
NBC 6 located in Miramar (broward) inland lost power and is on TV with generator.
Actually...NE side looked weak until about an hour ago and almost as soon as the eye started showing weather here got noticeably stronger..
There were before that NO real bands north of South Dade rotating in and then BAMN!
fun to watch.. hope i don't lose power in North Miami Beach
sky very very dark since about 10am
oh and MM74 thru 76 closed
strong strong band with thunder, maybe its not showing on radar?
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 03:09 PM |
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Re: ne quandrant just got drier? not up here in NMB or S Broward
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There's a mess of storms associated with Rita - they've been coming in off the coast over the last few hours.
Right now we're simply overcast but there's plenty of rain off the coast visible on Melbourne's radar - and it's heading inland.
Southern radar shows a classic comma shape and convection which hasn't quite wrapped around the center completely. Once it does, we'll see more strengthening, and she'll hopefully continue on her path towards the west.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 03:13 PM |
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Re: texas
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The Tampa radar does suggest that Rita is dragging some rain behind it far to its NE so it is possible that we in West Central Florida may experience some relief from the drought. That may be tonight though IF it holds together
We actually need a slow moving tropical depression.
| pryord1 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 03:13 PM |
Re: texas
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Yeah, I know we Floridians always think we're gonna get it, but that's because we HAVE "gotten it" in recent years. Can't blame us for being jaded...
Love this website- you guys are awesome! I learn something new every time I log on.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 03:14 PM |
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Re: ne quandrant just got drier? not up here in NMB or S Broward
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I see that. Wonder if those bands will weaken as they come towards land since Rita is west of our longitude here in Melbourne and should cut off the banding effect as it heads westward. A little off subject but a concern nonetheless, anyone see a feature to the NW of Philippe, near 25N/60W. Seems there's a circulation there moving WSW under ridging. Was this acknowledged by forecasters today? Seems like an item to watch over the next few days. Cheers!!
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 03:18 PM |
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Re: ne quandrant just got drier? not up here in NMB or S Broward
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I should have been more specific... the NE quadrant close to the center had dried out some, though it seems to be coming back a little. There is plenty of action to the NE in the outer bands. There is a tornado watch up for south Florida, so keep an eye out for tornadic activity if you live in that area.
| pryord1 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 03:18 PM |
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Re: texas
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I can tell you that my cousin in Pass Christian has always scoffed at canes- lived through Camile, so she had the "I'm Invincible" syndrome. After Katrina, she swears she won't even stay for a TS from here on out!
Eyewall looks kind of ragged on the last sat. Hopefully this storm won't get too much stronger... but I'm only a layman.
| Hootowl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 03:24 PM |
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Re: texas
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Rain would be wonderful. Maybe we will get enough heating this afternoon to get up a nice thunderstorm.I just checked Tampa radar - looks like they are dying out just before they get to us. Cross your fingers.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 03:25 PM |
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11am advisory
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The 11am advisory brings the intensity up to 75 knots (85 mph). The forecast track seems to be a little further south. The max forecast intensity is 100 knots before landfall. The discussion mentions the "distinct" possibility of rapid intensification over the Gulf, but does not include that in the forecast since such events are difficult to forecast.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 03:28 PM |
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Re: ne quandrant just got drier? not up here in NMB or S Broward
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The satellite and radar both suggest a growing and strenghtening system...Looks like de ja vu.
Key West will miss the eye by about 60 miles and may miss the real northern eye wall as well by 20-30 miles...Rita looks due west in motion Most of the southern half of the peninsula could get rain and increased wind from this today...
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 03:38 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: ne quandrant just got drier? not up here in NMB or S Broward
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You could see it really intensify once it started to get out of the florida straights. If you're watching the IR/local dopler loops it's like someone flipped a switch.
She has food now, the question is how much is she going to eat before she lands...doesn't look good by the water temps...
| pryord1 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 03:44 PM |
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Re: ne quandrant just got drier? not up here in NMB or S Broward
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Does look drier on the N- NW side. Hopefully this will be a trend but I doubt it. I hope it doesn't gain much more strength before it moves thru the straights. Wait- it looks like it's wrapping around itself again on the NW quadrant. Not good. Still looks kind of rough in the center, though. Oh, well...
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 04:03 PM |
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Re: ne quandrant just got drier? not up here in NMB or S Broward
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804
URNT12 KNHC 201539 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/15:43:10Z
B. 23 deg 49 min N
081 deg 01 min W
C. 700 mb 2947 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 041 deg 077 kt
G. 310 deg 019 nm
H. 980 mb
I. 11 C/ 3048 m
J. 15 C/ 3052 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. OPEN NE
M. E220/40/35
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 1018A RITA OB 20 CCA
MAX FL WIND 80 KT NW QUAD 13:43:40 Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 140 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR
| susieq |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 04:04 PM |
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Re: ne quandrant just got drier? not up here in NMB or S Broward
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I'm just curious, and I'm certainly not an expert, but I'm wondering why the hurricane would head for the dry air over Texas as opposed to the weakness in the dry air near the panhandle. Here's a link to look at...
http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/satelliteusnational/uswatervaporsatellite_large_animated.html
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 04:04 PM |
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Re: 11am advisory
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Yes and did you like the "For those who follow just the skinny black line..." comment about the cone!
That cracked me up.
Well latest recon showed pressure drop to 980mb. To someone who made another comment about rapid intensifcation or deepening...I misspoke...what I get for trying to be in a hurry. Yes it is rapid intensification, not huge in terms of mb, and not explosive deepening, not unless we see a 30mb pressure drop in 6/12 hours.
Let's see...from 988 to 980 in five or six hours, only 8mb in that time period.
Explosive deepening is a drop of 5mb for six consecutive hours or drop of 2.5mb for 12 consecutive hours, that is, 30mb total.
The shear map has changed quite a bit from yesterday, I thought...I thought I remembered there was more shear just west of the FL coast, which is not the case this morning, but now the hurricane is entering an area of low shear. I am not sure how long but for at least 12 hours. But this isn't a large area right now. You can still see the shear acting on the outer bands both to the exteme west, taking apart the cirrus bands, and on the NE, past the islands (like, 12:45Z to 14:45Z on the visual sat images).
OK the water is still warm here so could get down to 970 or to borderline Cat 3 range in the next 12 hours, but that is probably it.
Now I didn't realize that high was going to move east after 48 hours...I thought it would be in place a little longer. So I guess the landing won't e as far SW on the TX coast as I thought yesterday, but closer to Houston/Galveston area, and even possibility it will land to the NE of that area, even though not as likely.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 04:20 PM |
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Re: ne quandrant just got drier? not up here in NMB or S Broward
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This might not be an expert explanation, but I'll try. Basically storms take the path of least resistance. Imagine that there is a "circle" smack in the middle of the GOM. If Rita were further north and the "circle" was further south, she would move along the "rim" of the circle. Instead, Rita is further south and the the "circle" is further north, pushing Rita to ride the "rim" where she will encounter no resistance.
Hope that makes a little bit of sense, LOL.
| pryord1 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 04:23 PM |
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Re: 11am advisory
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New models out agree with you.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_18.gif
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 04:26 PM |
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Re: 11am advisory
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After trending south for awhile, the 12Z GFS has shifted back north, bring the system in just south of Galveston. It also deepens the system quite a bit more, bringing it down to 976 mb in the western Gulf and about 980 mb at landfall, which is about 10 mb lower than the previous runs. Sometimes, when the global models indicate that sort of deepening (which is unusual for them since they don't resolve the central pressure of hurricanes very well), that can indicate a significant intensification of the system and/or an expansion in the size of the system. It will be interesting to see what the other 12Z model runs have to say.
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 04:28 PM |
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Re: ne quandrant just got drier? not up here in NMB or S Broward
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If you look directly to the west of Rita, you'll see a complete weakness in the currents. The prevailing air currents tend to do a slight clockwise rotation around the GOM which helps lead so many hurricanes into the GOM. It's like a dog with really big teeth on a leash. If you look to the north of the hurricane, you'll see a pressure sitting there like a wall, keeping it south of the panhandle.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 04:32 PM |
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Re: 11am advisory
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12 Z GFS takes a more northerly route now and at day 5 has SW of Beaumont, and kind of stalling it there briefly. On another note, and as noted in the 11am discussion, Phillipe is moving to the NW now, with an exposed LCC. A shift further to the west could occur with the next advisory, and could get interesting in a few days as a weakened system will submit to lower level steering. The NAM and GFS imply this on 12Z as they should energy coming out of Phillipe to the SW, as the mainlow heads north. It could also be the swirl located to the NNE of the Leewards that is moving west. Think someone may not be done with phillipe just yet :?: Cheers!!
| Multi-Decadal Signal |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 04:32 PM |
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Re: ne quadrant just got drier? not up here in NMB or S Broward
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If Rita stays the course we may get the next best thing to a fish-spinner . We'll have an old fashioned Texas barbecue ! More cattle than people out that way.
| pryord1 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 04:35 PM |
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Re: ne quandrant just got drier? not up here in NMB or S Broward
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I know this is a little off subject, but does anyone have a link to 97L (or is it 98L- the one SW of Cape Verde Isl)? Just curious about the models and forecast.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 04:36 PM |
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Re: ne quandrant just got drier? not up here in NMB or S Broward
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Quote:
The satellite and radar both suggest a growing and strenghtening system...Looks like de ja vu.
No, no...well except for the keys, sort of.
When Kat came out of FL going SW, she did pound the Keys with her bands and got pretty close. She had a hard time with dry air for the next couple days, although I seem to remember no shear. She kept trying to intensify but no luck with the winds, but every little mb she was able to drop she hung onto it, growing little by little the first couple days into the GOM, back to a Cat 1 when several folks thought she'd blow up right away into a Cat 3. It took awhile for her to get to Cat 2. It wasn't until she turned a little more N and hit the loop current that she first immediately got up to a Cat 3, and then just kept going.
The little bit of the loop current in place since Kat went through, is a spherical area south of LA which is going to be too far N for Rita, and then a little finger of warm water coming up from the western end of Cuba, which she'll get to sometime Wed. Now outside of the favorable conditions right now, that is it for Rita. So if she gets to strong Cat 2 / even weak Cat 3 later today, not necessarily going to hold onto that before she gets to the end of Cuba. There, probably Cat 3, depending on the shear, since that seems to really be a factor for Rita, but again not going to hold onto that intensity by the time she gets to the TX coast.
But...as NHC stated, too soon to be completely certain about landfall in the GOM. But by Wed night there will be a much higher degree of certainty.
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 04:42 PM |
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Re: ne quandrant just got drier? not up here in NMB or S Broward
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Katrina was also only moving at 5mph FOREVER...when it hit the gulf coast/NO etc, it sat there scouring and cranking the storm surge into Lake Ponchatrain for an extended period of time which, in my opinion, was one of the REAL causes why levees failed. Rita is moving at a fairly fast clip of 15mph so any strengthening is going to have to occur pretty fast and in a completely different way then occured with Katrina.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 04:42 PM |
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Re: ne quandrant just got drier? not up here in NMB or S Broward
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If you go to the main page, it is about 1/3 of the way down, it is a thumbnail
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 04:44 PM |
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Re: 11am advisory
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Can you send a link to what you are looking at? The 12Z run? I can't seem to see what you are seeing.
| Susan in Jupiter, FL |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 04:45 PM |
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Re: ne quandrant just got drier? not up here in NMB or S Broward
|
It's getting more breezy here now, and on radar looks like in just a short while we'll start getting the very north feeder band. Just a few sprinkles of rain so far this morning.
| oil trader |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 04:45 PM |
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Re: 11am advisory
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Quote:
New models out agree with you.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_18.gif
So, Do you think the NHC is going to go back with his previous track?. I remember 4 days before Katrina, there was a such ping pong game in the track models and also in the official forecast.
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 04:53 PM |
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Re: ne quandrant just got drier? not up here in NMB or S Broward
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Actually Psyber..Katrina was moving at 12 mph at landfall..forward speed increased in the 12 hours before ...
| nate77 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 04:53 PM |
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Re: 11am advisory
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Im really worried about NO with this storm.
They said yesterday even tho the eye looks like it passes some distance to the west, NO should still get wind and rain and 3 inches will cause catastrpohic damage again and break the levees.
| pryord1 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 04:55 PM |
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Re: 11am advisory
|
I think everyone should pay attention to this storm. Yes, the models show another (again!) shift to the east. Stay on your feet, but don't be extreme in your action. Just be aware and ready. The models could shift again and you are out of the woods, but who knows? I remember that we (FL . panhandle) were under the gun only 3 days before Katrina hit, but the models shifted signifcantly. Just be alert- you can never tell.
| amonty |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 04:57 PM |
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Re: ne quandrant just got drier? not up here in NMB or S Broward
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I believe 97L is no more. It's no longer on the Navy webpage Link
| pryord1 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 04:59 PM |
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Re: ne quandrant just got drier? not up here in NMB or S Broward
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Yeah, I agree- it looks like it might be gone. Thanks for the info!
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 05:03 PM |
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Re: ne quandrant just got drier? not up here in NMB or S Broward
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Quote:
Katrina was also only moving at 5mph FOREVER...when it hit the gulf coast/NO etc, it sat there scouring and cranking the storm surge into Lake Ponchatrain for an extended period of time which, in my opinion, was one of the REAL causes why levees failed. Rita is moving at a fairly fast clip of 15mph so any strengthening is going to have to occur pretty fast and in a completely different way then occured with Katrina.
Yes and the large windfield, that was why it was just so completely astonishing the mayor didn't act on Friday night, or Sat morning! I kept wondering about that. I think he just didn't get it, that all the while water level was rising, and just like a dam, the impact of the additional heavy water over a period of days was what was going to cause the failures, not how much wind they were ultimately going to get a couple days down the road. But engineers must have told him, right?
Do you know that between the time Katrina became a Cat 3 and the LA landfall, she had grown in size to a area roughly eight times larger than she started with on Friday? It was unreal.
I think there is the potential for Rita to become a large hurricane, but not on that order of magnitude. To me, Katrina seemed like a 1000-year storm for landfall in the GOM. It isn't possible to compare other GOM storms to Katrina; she was in a category all her own those last three days.
Well I'm surprised I feel ok about jumping in again and trying to keep learning about tracking and forecasting hurricanes. And Rita has been interesting with her quirks.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 05:06 PM |
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Re: 11am advisory
|
Ok what is the deal with Fox news? they are as close to false news reporting as you can get.
#1 they are showing a guy in key west with 25 mph winds like its a hurricane there.
#2 they keep posting Alert "Rita hits florida with 85 mph winds.Now we all know this storm is nowhere close to hitting the keys with its center and if lucky they will get a gust half that.They keep pumping rita as hammering the keys which thankfully not.
#3 they are talking right now about the models and all the talk is about it may go to N.O. they just said 3 good models show it going there.I cannot find 1 MIND YOU 1 that shows this storm going there.
Yes everyone should watch it but they are so over hyping this what its doing to florida and N.O. its sick.
I can see the 15 models they are talking about and there are no 3 good models showing it going to N.O. and if they post that "rita hits Florida with 85 mph winds they should be ashamed of there reporting.
I mean to show a branch wiggle and say woah look at that is insane.
They are making people over react with fear.If Key west see's more then 60 mph winds i will be shocked and they are treating this like a 140 mph cane is hitting key west.
Good repoting i don't mind but hype is as bad as wishcasting.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 05:07 PM |
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Re: 11am advisory
|
Here's the GFS 12Z link
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_m.shtml
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 05:13 PM |
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Re: 11am advisory
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Yes, the news hasn't changed at all. Just the way its delivered. Remember Cronkite in Viet Nam? Buddy's came back and said "I was just there, and that's Not what went down." Some things never change
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 05:13 PM |
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Re: ne quandrant just got drier? not up here in NMB or S Broward
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Quote:
Actually Psyber..Katrina was moving at 12 mph at landfall..forward speed increased in the 12 hours before ...
Sorry, i meant to indicate while it was building and i mixed my sentences hehe. Either way Rita is a completely different beast than Katrina was, even though its going through the florida straights in a somewhat simular position.(You can already see the panic in places which honestly have extremely low chances of being hit like NO/Gulf Coast)
| Robert |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 05:14 PM |
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|
Re: Hurricane Rita Heading for the Florida Straits
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If you go to weather underground animated radar from key west you can see the annular eye in the center rotating around just packing the wall on the south side.
http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar/...mp;showlabels=1
| pryord1 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 05:16 PM |
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Re: ne quandrant just got drier? not up here in NMB or S Broward
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He's only the mayor of the biggest party city in the USA. He certainly wasn't expecting to have to deal with a problem of this magnitude- not after so many "good" years of no tropical action for the NO area. He's running on pure adrenaline now with very little direction. This, of course, is only my opinion.
Boy, sat rad looks pretty healthy to me right now. A good-looking system (if you can call it that).
| orlandocanewatcher |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 05:19 PM |
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Re: 11am advisory
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I agree Ralph, I live in Orlando and we just started getting some of the feeder bands and the wind is gusting here anywhere from 23-28mph.....
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 05:23 PM |
|
Re: 11am advisory
|
Fox news just said its a cat 2 storm now.Guess they got a paid guy inside.
Love the guy they interviewed in key west.He basiclly told them its not coming here its going to texas or mexico.
Boy the news got off that fast something good they dont want to report.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 05:25 PM |
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|
Category 2
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Quote:
Fox news just said its a cat 2 storm now.Guess they got a paid guy inside.
No, it's official. 1:15pm update. Category 2.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT3+shtml/201711.shtml
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 05:26 PM |
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Re: 11am advisory
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Quote:
#3 they are talking right now about the models and all the talk is about it may go to N.O. they just said 3 good models show it going there.I cannot find 1 MIND YOU 1 that shows this storm going there.
God if they're forcasting on fox like that, CNN(which is wayyy more inflamitory than fox is) must be forcasting a N/E hit on NO.
Personally I think the jetstream would have to drop like 2000 miles and come up into the s-w of rita to give it enough power to make it go north enough to hit NO but thats just my wild forcasting.I think it's important that people realize that Rita is going to build some in the next 2-3 days, that no matter where you are in the north part of the GOM, you are going to get a little bit of storm surge. The levees in NO are damaged and quite possibly cannot take even CAT1 storm surges without being broken in places which have not been shored up.
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 05:36 PM |
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Re: Category 2
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TS to CAT2 in under 3 hours...ouch. I have to say that thats a bit quicker than I thought it would. Just like someone flipped a switch as it passes the Florida straits. The water vapour loop just showed a fairly noticable increase. The eye hasn't even properly formed yet...this could really grow...
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 05:36 PM |
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Re: 11am advisory
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Who are they that you are refering too?
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 05:39 PM |
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Re: Category 2
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Katrina did exactly what Rita has done. Explode rapidly.
Did it occur to anyone that Katrina has Rita in it!!! HUMMMM
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 05:43 PM |
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Re: Category 2
|
The eye is increasing to develope a very well orginized wall feature. Ever present on SAT and RADAR.
Hold on to your hats, it's going to be wild for the next couple of days. I still think with all that is happening with the atmospheric conditions, that N.O should not let their guard down for any reason. Not to say Rita will be on your doorstep, but to peek every so often through the window.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 05:46 PM |
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Re: Category 2
|
The official intensity forecast has been bumped up to 95 knots (110 mph) in 6 hours and 105 knots (120 mph, cat 3) in 18 hours, then maintaining 105 knots until landfall.
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 05:46 PM |
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|
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Re: Category 2
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Katrina took longer to build than Rita has so far. If Katrina hadn't stalled and then gone N N/E like it did, it would have hit about where Rita is heading except it wouldn't have been nearly as strong is Rita is getting. Katrina took about a day longer to get to 100mph winds and was a day more west then Rita is now.
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 05:46 PM |
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Re: Category 2
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MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE REACHED 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES
That is a huge drop in presure.
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 05:48 PM |
|
|
consider this
|
they delayed a few hours or more before finally agreeing the hurricane was, in fact a hurricane. (from Joe Bastardi...it irritated him early this morning that they didn't consider it a hurricane....) that is why there is an "apparent explosion"....it is simply going through a normal escalation into a cat 4-5 hurricane....
remember
gulf of mexico.
high sst's....
New Orleans could get hit as easily as anyone else. the models have swung twice since I logged on this morning.
they will swing again...
if anyone thinks they are out of the woods...it is wishful thinking....
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 05:51 PM |
|
Re: consider this
|
Rick,
Joe was furious that the NHC was not reporting the Rita had reached CAT 1 by the 8AM advisory, but they were going on what the RECON was delivering. Now, we see the onslaught taken place, and agree with you, with an intense and strengthening hurricane, she will eventually make her her own winds to steer as well, so that is something the models have to take into an account.
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 05:53 PM |
|
|
Re: consider this
|
Steve Lyons on TWC just said that they found a central pressure of 976mb in Rita.....(sheesh, she's not a lovely meter maid is she? Beatles song...)
Also on the Drudge Report it has Number Nine as the headline, would this be the 9th storm to hit the US or the Ninth Hurricane to form?
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 05:53 PM |
|
|
Re: Category 2
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I hesitate to call it exploding... it's intensifying, but... what i think you're seeing is a system that was poised to strengthen, being held back by the interaction with the bahamas. It's free of that influence, and now it's simply gotten to the strength it probably woud have been without land interaction. (In otherwords, the disruption of the inner core has lessened, so the system is able to take better advantage of the positive environment.
Now, if they find it a cat 3 by 11pm, I might be more willing to say it's exploding
I know Katrina just happened, but can we avoid Katrina-like Comparisons for now? Just like Camille, I think Katrina should be the flhurricane equivalent of invoking "Godwin's Law"
-Mark
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 05:56 PM |
|
|
Re: Category 2
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well here in Riverview we just got lil taste of Rita....we had some heavy rain and 30 mph gusts....enough to wake up my 2 yr old from a nap...anyone think we will get anything more than just those type of conditions in the Tampa area?...
hope no one took this lightly in the keys....stay safe
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 05:56 PM |
|
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Re: Category 2
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Rick,
Gulf SST's are lower than with Katrina although they are still warm. Florida Bay is very warm and is fueling this burst.
now
then
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 05:59 PM |
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Re: Category 2
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Flamommy,
there's nothing that shows Rita doing anything other than heading out into the GOM.(away from Tampa).
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 06:01 PM |
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Re: Category 2
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well yea i understand that...but was wondering if we could expect any stronger condtitions than what we just had....i know its not comign this way...but was curious of stronger conditions...thank you
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 06:03 PM |
|
GFDL
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The 12Z GFDL brings the pressure down to around 938 mb in 36 hours, followed by slow weakening to a storm around 952 mb at landfall near Freeport, TX in about 90 hours. That is about 6-8 mb lower along the path than in the last run, so it is depicting a stronger system developing. It has been fairly consistent about bringing a 950-960 mb storm into Texas, which would typically correspond to a cat 3 intensity system.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 06:04 PM |
|
|
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Re: Category 2
|
Last night before I went to bed I predicted 979mb and 95mph for the 5am, but I was off by almost 8 hours! Now at 978 and 100mph.
OK right now a favorable environment for continued intensification, for maybe six more hours.
Can anyone talk about wind shear predictions over the next 6-12 hours?
Am I seeing things or is the shear eroding the transverse banding to the west? Will the higher area of shear N of the Yucatan Pen. stay put? if so then after about six to eight more hours I don't see a favorable environment w.r.t. either shear or water temp.
So even if she gets up to a solid Cat 3 after leaving the Keys this aft, I don't see that as a problem for the US (for Cuba's northern shore, and for shipping interests). Back down to a Cat 2 by 24 hours from now.
Keys are going to get hammered in the meantime tho!
EDIT -- but obviously I haven't a clue...the 2pm NHC discussion keeps her a Cat 3 for three days!
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 06:09 PM |
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|
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Re: Category 2
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these came out 3 hours ago....I think.
Wind Shear
Wind Shear Tendency
To me it looks like increasing shear in the Eastern gulf, moderate shear in the Central Gulf and no shear in the Western Gulf.
Factoring in the shear, I don't think the SST's & Energy are there to create a Cat 4/5.
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 06:10 PM |
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Re: Category 2
|
Margie,
I don't agree with that assessment of shear. Yes it is there however sligh, but will back off when Rita solidily gets into the GOM. There is nothing keeping Rita from strengthening to a poss CAT4/5 in 48-72 hrs. Do I think she will weaken prior to landfall wherever that maybe, well it all depends where of course, because of the layout of the coast is not the same in all locations.
| Lsr1166 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 06:13 PM |
|
Re: Category 2
|
What are the chances of Rita following a path similar to the one Kate did in 1985? They both formed in about the same location, on 11/20 Kate was located at 23.9 & 83.5 (which is almost 2 degrees west of where Rita is now) and on 11/22 Kate was at 30.2 & 85.1 (just west of Tallahassee, Florida). I looked in the NHC archives and it said although Kate was a late November storm, the weather conditions and sea surface temperatures were more like what you would find in late September.
| Elaine H |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 06:15 PM |
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Re: Category 2
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FLMommy - We are only going to get 25 - 32 gusts and some rain through the day and that is it. (Valrico)
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 06:15 PM |
|
Re: Category 2
|
Quote:
What are the chances of Rita following a path similar to the one Kate did in 1985? They both formed in about the same location, on 11/20 Kate was located at 23.9 & 83.5 (which is almost 2 degrees west of where Rita is now) and on 11/22 Kate was at 30.2 & 85.1 (just west of Tallahassee, Florida). I looked in the NHC archives and it said although Kate was a late November storm, the weather conditions and sea surface temperatures were more like what you would find in late September.
Fairly low, the momentum toward the west right now is a bit too much to see a Kate like forecast. And the situation is different in the air patterns, i'd bet further west or south over north and that far east if anything.
See Kate/Rita plotted:
http://flhurricane.com/googlemap.php?2005s18-1985s11
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 06:17 PM |
|
|
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Re: Category 2
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thank you very much elaine i appreciate it...was just wondering..i have a 2 yr old who is afraid of storms...so didnt hurt to ask
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 06:17 PM |
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|
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Re: Category 2
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That's what I'm looking at, but I don't see long-term forecast values, only +3hr. Thanks much.
To force 2005 -- there is no way that the water temps in the GOM would support strengthening to Cat 4/5 level. Maybe some little strengthening around western tip of Cuba if no wind sheer there, but in the western GOM how do you see that happening? However I see increasing wind shear as well.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 06:28 PM |
|
|
Re: Category 2
|
Boca has been more gloomy than anything else. We had a band at 4AM, but that's really been about it. Some rain this AM & a little wind. Right now there's maybe a 10 -15 mph breeze.
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 06:31 PM |
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Re: Category 2
|
Margie,
SST's may not be what they were post Katrina, however, they are very warm for a body of water that is relative motionless without a storm over top of it. Temps still running around 30C.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 06:37 PM |
|
12Z SHIPS output
|
The 12Z SHIPS intensity model goes berserk with Rita, bringing it up to 125 knots (145 mph, strong cat 4) in 48 hours, before slowly weakening it prior to landfall (forecast landfall is between 72 and 96 hours):
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=WBCCHGHUR (click on the "Previous Version" link on that page if you don't see the output for Rita right away)
That is quite a change from the previous SHIPS runs which kept the max intensity around 100 knots. I imagine the much higher initial intensity for the latest run played a role in the intensity jump.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 06:40 PM |
|
|
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Re: Category 2
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Quote:
Margie,
SST's may not be what they were post Katrina, however, they are very warm for a body of water that is relative motionless without a storm over top of it. Temps still running around 30C.
Surface temps, SSTs, yes, but not deep water.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 06:41 PM |
|
tornado warnings
|
There is currently a tornado warning for eastern Broward county, and also for the Upper Keys in Monroe county. Take appropriate shelter if you are in those areas.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 06:51 PM |
|
|
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Re: Category 2
|
Not deep water, but not shallow either. In fact, the track Rita is forcast to take is over the warmest deep water in the gulf:
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/z26.watl.20050920.gif
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 06:52 PM |
|
Re: 12Z SHIPS output
|
Your post raises a question I have about the dynamics of a tropical storm. I lived through Isabel, which hit my area as a bare Cat 1, yet did enormous damage. Since Isabel was once a much stronger storm, I wonder if she was therefore more powerful than a similar storm that was never stronger. Therefore, will Rita have more punch as a 105 kt storm if it was formerly 125 rather than one never having been stronger than 105?
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 06:55 PM |
|
Re: Category 2
|
From Accuweather:
Hurricane Rita will take dead aim at the Texas Coast later this week making landfall late Friday or early Saturday. At ground zero, highest winds will exceed 100 mph, the storm surge will inundate the coastline and rainfall will be excessive. This will produce widespread damage to structures, power will be out and oil platforms will have to be evacuated. All residents living along the coast from Corpus Cristi to Lake Charles need to have a plan if an evacuation order is given later this week. Let me restate that. An evacuation order will be given later this week. Its just a matter of where the worst impact of the hurricane is going to be. This graphic shows where we think the full fury of Rita will be realized. Wouldn't it be ironic if the city of Houston became the prime target for Rita later this week. If you recall, that is where most of the New Orleans refugees went to escape the devastation created by Hurricane Katrina. Houston's emergency management officials are in the initial stages of preparation, advising residents of the danger posed by Rita. Close to 18,000 Katrina evacuees are still in shelters in Texas.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 06:55 PM |
|
Re: Category 2
|
As far as SST's go...is it significant that Rita is moving much faster than Katrina did...thus not tapping the heat as deeply as ...say a slower moving storm? I'm not sure...and I have not read in the posts where that has been thrown into the mix.
Seems as though a quickly moving hurricane would only need to tap the upper surface heat before it was already into the next area
| Convergence |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 06:59 PM |
|
Re: Category 2
|
Quote:
Surface temps, SSTs, yes, but not deep water.
Keep in mind that Rita is also moving at a good clip, so upwelling will be somewhat supressed.
edit: beaten by above
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 07:01 PM |
|
|
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Re: 12Z SHIPS output
|
As I recall, three things to consider to understand storm strength:
* Winds, which are directly related to current central core strength.
* Size, which is completely independent of anything but size and windfield diameter.
* Storm surge, which is a combination of current central pressure and past central pressure.
It is storm surge which is most effected by a storm that was previously strong, since it often takes time for the surge to subside away from a storm when the pressure rises, just as it takes time for the surge to build when the pressure falls.
Hope this helps
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 07:02 PM |
|
Re: 12Z SHIPS output
|
I think with Isabel the angle at which it hit the coast was significant. Hurricanes very rarely take dead aim on the coast in those regions (NC, VA, MD). They are usually in the process of recurving. Isabel plowed straight into the coast and up the chesapeake making the surge worse. I also think Katrina was a good example of how powerful hurricanes can "bank up" water in addition to the predicted storm surge simply by prolonged high wind speed in the same direction as the coast. Of course, thats my observation...I'm no expert
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 07:02 PM |
|
Re: Category 2
|
So you see Margie, the faster the storm, the more it will intensify, cause it will not stay in one area over an extended period of time like Katrina. And the deep layer convergence is very warm.
| Convergence |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 07:05 PM |
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Re: 12Z SHIPS output
|
That doen't really make sense. There are some factors that can make one hurricane more destructive than another of similar intensity, like tornadoes or vortexes, but a max wind speed is a max wind speed, whether it's going up or down. In your case, Isabel was massive at landfall, and produced strong winds for a pretty long time.
It's really on a storm-by-storm basis, they're just too hard to compare.
edit: not again
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 07:07 PM |
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Re: Category 2
|
Interesting projected inland path for Rita in the afternoon HPC...looks like she could reemerge in the Atlantic in about 7-8 days. Wonder if this will be another crazy storm like the one last year that looped back and hit someplace (FL?) a second time.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day7nav_color.html
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 07:07 PM |
|
Re: 12Z SHIPS output
|
Both Katrina and Ivan were storms that produced more substantial storm surge and damage than would normally be expected based on their landfall intensity. Both of those storms were much stronger at one time over the Gulf than they were at landfall. Some of the damage may be due to having once been stronger before landfall with respect to building up a storm surge, though it also makes a difference that both Katrina and Ivan were very large storms in size and both came in at basically a right-angle to the coastline. I don't remember the specifics of Isabel, though I believe it was also large in size. The size of the storm increases the duration that a single point will experience strong winds and increases the potential damage.
| Convergence |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 07:10 PM |
|
Re: 12Z SHIPS output
|
Quote:
I think with Isabel the angle at which it hit the coast was significant. I also think Katrina was a good example of how powerful hurricanes can "bank up" water in addition to the predicted storm surge simply by prolonged high wind speed in the same direction as the coast. Of course, thats my observation...I'm no expert
I've done some work on wave models, specifically using Isabel data, that demonstrates that hurricanes can also produce enhanced wave heights and periods when they're moving at certain speeds and in a linear fashion, in a process called fetch-trapping. It's one of the reasons Isabel did so much coastal damage.
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 07:10 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Category 2 Hurricane Rita in the Florida Straits
|
RITA
SST - now in 30C but forecast to be in low to mid 29C's
SSHA - all below zero
HHC is moderate thru tomorrwow but then weakens.
data source
DTG.................. LAT........LON...ANALYS DTG..SSHA...SST.......Z26.....HHC
2005092015 ACT 23.80N 81.00W 2005092000 -0.005 30.118 65.299 17.365
2005092100 FOR 24.00N 83.10W 2005092000 -0.119 29.341 32.562 6.309
2005092112 FOR 24.30N 85.80W 2005092000 -0.021 29.725 84.143 21.230
2005092200 FOR 24.50N 88.30W 2005092000 -0.003 29.574 42.684 10.467
2005092212 FOR 24.50N 90.50W 2005092000 -0.129 29.370 37.129 8.644
2005092312 FOR 26.00N 94.00W 2005092000 -0.097 29.669 24.070 5.183
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 07:11 PM |
|
|
Re: Category 2
|
Just a note - the 12Z GFS is showing a very deep core on Rita around shortly before it impacts the coast. I'm mentioning this becuase globals (except for CMC) rarely give tropical deep cores becuase they can't resolve them due to lack of detail in the runs.
Links --
Pressure loop: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cg...;hour=Animation
Cyclone phase: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/05092012/18.html
--RC
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 07:12 PM |
|
Re: Category 2
|
Ed,
Are you trying to say that Rita could possibly exit the Atlantic and become tropical again?
| Kimberley Clark |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 07:17 PM |
|
Re: Category 2
|
Yes, that was the son of IVAN.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 07:39 PM |
|
Re: Category 2
|
We have 16,000 new residents in Southeast Texas because of Katrina. I know there are many more
in the Houston area. I am sure Houston is preparing for this storm as the projected path is closer to
them. We have a good evacuation plan in place here in case the track shifted north.
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 07:45 PM |
|
Re: Category 2
|
Is it me or does everyone else experiance a delay when receiving other post's to this forum?
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 07:57 PM |
|
Re: Category 2
|
Yes...probably most likely that it would go out to sea even if she does, but you never know.
Thanks to everyone for your answers on Isabel. Actually, the damage that I experienced was from downed trees, not surge. It seems like the energy from Isabel generated a number of micro bursts or mini tornadoes that seemed to be a carryover from her stronger status.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 08:26 PM |
|
latest recon
|
The latest recon fix at 2007 UTC shows the pressure down to 973 mb, with flight-level winds of 89 kts in the NW quadrant.
| CoalCracker |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 08:27 PM |
|
|
Re: Category 2
|
Understand the NOAA aircraft is flying recon. Does anyone know when the first model runs will reflect the input of this data? Seems to me we should have a little better handle on Rita's track once that info is digested.
My son, daughter-in-law, and one year old granddaughter live in NW Houston. Needless to say, I'm concerned.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 08:33 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Category 2
|
I see the 18Z intensity models are out. They are going NUTS with Rita!
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity1.png
GFNI is up to 135kts - that is borderline Cat4/Cat5!
SHIPS, the normally conservative one, is up to 125kts
| WeatherNLU |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 08:38 PM |
|
|
Re: Category 2
|
I'd never wish anything on anyone, but I can only hope that this is a Texas event. It's been three weeks since Katrina, and I still have not been able to see my home. I want to go home! Now they have cancelled the re-entry (just to see, not stay) and they have issued the second mandatory evacuation of my home in the last three weeks. It's pretty bad when they issue another mandatory evacuation before you've returned from the first. They've said that a three inch rain of any kind, would put 4 feet of water back into my house. I can only imagine what any surge of any kind would do. Could someone please try to keep me updated via e-mail with anything that might be going on, including anything that looks as though the high might shift eastward quicker than expected.
You can e-mail me at:
hurrcane@bellsouth.net
I've got internet access, but it's dial-up and it's horrible. I can't access any of my normal sites, no loops or anything. Any updates, write-ups, whatever.....send to me.
Thanks!!!
Shawn
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 08:42 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Category 2
|
Is it just me or does the infrared look like it's slowing? Maybe just looks that way because of all the growth...
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 08:45 PM |
|
Re: Category 2
|
I've always been kind of surprised that there are not more major, damaging storms in the Gulf. The water is warm and the recurving option is not there...it's going to hit somewhere.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 08:51 PM |
|
Re: Category 2
|
5pm is out and all about the same west at 14 100mph track about the same nothing changed really since 2pm.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 08:54 PM |
|
5pm advisory
|
The latest advisory keeps the intensity at 85 knots, but increases the forecast intensity to 115 knots beginning in about 24 hours until landfall sometime between 72-96 hours. The forecast track is basically unchanged.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 09:01 PM |
|
Re: Category 2
|
A faster moving storm is not going to upwell as much water, no, but a storm of sufficient intensity is going to mix water over a large depth. For category 3/4 storms, that is about 70m in depth -- the waters over the central Gulf have not recovered from Katrina to that kind of depth, only to a near-normal value. This mixing occurs regardless of the storm's speed; it is a sole function of storm intensity and its influence on the underlying ocean.
Thus, it's not quite correct to say that because the storm is moving faster than Katrina, the recovery of the oceanic waters underneath the storm is not going to be a concern. It will be a concern and likely a limit upon the maximum intensity of the storm. Remember: Katrina was the exception rather than the norm; most storms do not come close to approaching their maximum potential intensity in the Gulf as a result of two factors: 1) shear and/or 2) upper oceanic heat content. Here, it's the latter that should play a role in limiting Rita's intensity -- likely to a more "manageable" cat 3/4 level than another monster.
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 09:01 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 5pm advisory
|
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...24.0 N... 82.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 973 MB.
Pressure is plummeting...
| StormKrone |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 09:01 PM |
|
Re: Category 2
|
Watching CNN, they interrupted with breaking news that the NHC is expecting Rita to reach Cat 4 status by 2pm tomorrow..
Dee
| Kimberley Clark |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 09:06 PM |
|
Re: Category 2
|
Shawn, My prayers will be with you. My parents live off of Dog River in Mobile, Alabama and they left for the storm. They are elderly and heart patients and owe over $200,000 on their home. They thought when they refinanced that the flood insurance would continue to be escrowed. Well, Mama received a renewal notice in May, 2005, called the insurance agent and his office told them that it was being paid out of their mortgage and not to worry about it. Their home owners insurance was being escrowed, however, their flood was not and for a measly $40.00, they have no insurance. They are living in a camper in their driveway. It is sad because they have 15 children, 40 plus grandchildren and in the double digits on great grandchildren, and their are so many memories that were drowned. Keep us folks here in the Central Gulf in your prayers also. It is amazing what the weather can do to a town. The redlights are still not working around my area of work, however, I have seen some very kindhearted and wonderful people working together around here. Where I am working, the first floor is gutted. We are 1/2 block from Water Street and the first floor got about 5 feet of water. I have to be thankful though and thanks to you Shawn for reminding me how much I have to be thankful for.
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 09:10 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Category 2
|
The way it went from TS to Cat2 in 3-4 hours, i'm not surprised that it could make Cat4. Lets just hope it doesn't slow down or a weak Cat4 might be a dream.
In my nonstop meanderings, I found a webpage that shows alot of terminology we use here and has a very easy to understand demonstration:
Hurricane Demonstration
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 09:12 PM |
|
|
Re: Category 2
|
Philippe is down to a TS and seems to be absorbing 97L; Rita isnt slowing down, its expanding. The radar shows the eastern edge of the rain sheild not moving but the western edge progressing rather rapidly.
| jusforsean |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 09:33 PM |
|
Re: Category 2
|
Hi all, Its been a bumpy ride this season! I am done with the hurricanes this year would someone please send out a memo
Other than the tornado warning in my broward county area we were fine. I actually took the kids and got out for an hour during the warning. We live in a manufactured home. I thought the tropics were quiet once Rita left. But i see a few waves are out there??? Any chance for development in the coming days??? I heard that October was suppose to be busy. We will see.Hope everyone fared well.
Jusforsean
| Susan in Jupiter, FL |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 09:49 PM |
|
Re: Category 2
|
Up here in Jupiter, FL, northern Palm Beach County, we had very occasional breezes, and minimal rain, maybe 1/4". We've had more rain in an hour of a thunderstorm!
We'll be praying for everyone in TX & LA.............I know the feeling of getting hit twice in a three-week period......experienced it last year with Francis and Jeanne at almost exactly the same time as this year.
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 09:49 PM |
|
|
Re: Category 2
|
i was wondering does this really look like a galveston hit? or could it go a little south and hit lake jackson freeport area? the reason is my friend lives in lake jackson and works for the brazoria county sheriffs and i was wondering if it could hit them too? im a little worried bout her right now. i havent heard from her since last week cause she has been so busy helping with katrina victims in brazoria county. i need some input on this please. :?:
| FireAng85 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 10:02 PM |
Re: Category 2
|
Channel 9 in Orlando just reported that Key West had a gust of 102 mph. They are about 50 miles from the eye. Don't kill the messenger.........
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 10:03 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Category 2
|
We are 4 days from Texas now. The model range is from southern TX through western LA. It could hit anywhere along there, though the centerline is Galviston. If she's "anywhere" along the Texas coast, she'll probably be affected by this storm in some way or other.
*/me kills FireAng85*
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 10:08 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Category 2
|
Nogaps seems to be way to the sw almost in Brownsville.
At the rate its moving, could Rita get into the Gulf and stay further south as the ridge would still be in place?
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 10:09 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Category 2
|
does anyone have that link too the worse case scenario for galveston or houston that was on here yesterday? i need that link.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 10:14 PM |
|
Re: Category 2
|
Latest recon shows the pressure down to 970 mb.
Here is the link to the Houston/Galveston "worst-case" scenario info:
http://www.chron.com/content/chronicle/special/05/hurricane/index.html
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 10:19 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Category 2
|
thank you so much!
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 10:37 PM |
|
Re: Category 2
|
Seems the current track is taking it west of Galveston, possibly Matagorda Bay. They seem pretty confident in the track.
However our area is still in the cone. What are the chances it could go more east? Is it the speed of the storm that is affecting
where it will make landfall? I know the track may be determined by what the high does. Most here are getting gas, water, etc. just in
case. Also, what are we looking at intensity wise?
| Chris Bryant |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 10:44 PM |
|
Re: Category 2
|
Quote:
does anyone have that link too the worse case scenario for galveston or houston that was on here yesterday? i need that link.
http://www.chron.com/content/chronicle/special/05/hurricane/index.html
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 10:48 PM |
|
radar
|
Starting to see a better defined eye on both radar and satellite, though the convection on the west side of the system is not nearly as deep as the convection on the east side. This thing could really take off if it can maintain a closed eyewall.
| charlottefl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 11:02 PM |
|
Re: Category 2
|
As long as you are in that cone, there is a posibility that you are going to be hit. Even with the great advances that they have made though in forecasting it is too hard to tell 3 or 4 days out the exact landfall location let alone 12 hours out. The best thing to do is prepare and keep up with the updates. If you have any doubts , it might be a good time for a weekend trip out of town. Best of luck to everyone in the path.
Hurricane Charley '04 (Port Charlotte)
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 11:03 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Category 2
|
does anyone have live traffic links for galveston area with live cams and info about the car rate like we do in fl?
| Nutmeg |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 11:18 PM |
|
Re: Category 2
|
Good coverage of the evacuation situation and other news in Galveston...KHOU TV...there must be cams on this site, too.
http://www.khou.com/news/local/
edited table breaking link...~danielw
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 11:19 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Category 2
|
We are down to 969mb. Eye is clearly visible on IR. She's still growing.
604
URNT12 KNHC 202249
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/22:24:20Z
B. 23 deg 56 min N
082 deg 21 min W
C. 700 mb 2847 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 232 deg 075 kt
G. 138 deg 024 nm
H. 969 mb
I. 9 C/ 3049 m
J. 15 C/ 3040 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. OPEN E
M. C31
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 1218A RITA OB 15
MAX FL WIND 89 KT NW QUAD 20:00:50 Z
| KATFIVE |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 11:20 PM |
|
|
Re: Category 2
|
You guys know much and I would like some clarification as to the info in the recons. What ratio do you use to extrapolate surface winds from flight level winds? And what about all this talk about the temperature differential between the inner and outer wall? Is there some rough rule of thumb to figure out intensity from this differential. Finally what is the significance of the 700mb height? I appreciate your illumination for the hurricane beginner.
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 11:20 PM |
|
|
Re: Category 2
|
Try these.
http://www.galveston.com/webcams/
http://www.khou.com/news/webcams/
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 11:28 PM |
|
Re: Category 2
|
Local TV mets here are starting to compare Rita to Carla 1961 ... the Cat 4 storm that covered the *entire* Texas coast in hurricane force winds and remained a hurricane until it was up here near Austin. And they're pointing out that the GFDL takes it right over Austin :rolling eyes: I think they're getting a little hyped... but just looking at the size of Rita ... I guess it is possible ...
They're talking about hurricane kits and loss of electricity.
Considering that Austin is where thousands of evacuees are heading to (ALL the hotels in Austin and Round Rock are booked, and the Red Cross says there is room for 45000 evacuees in local schools....) I'm hoping it's not going to be more than TS strength here.
Question ... Has anyone seen a projected size estimate (not strength) for Rita? Is she supposed to be a very large storm sizewise?
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 11:38 PM |
|
Re: Category 2
|
Extrapolation of surface winds from flight-level data depends based upon any given storm -- no two storms are alike -- as well as the level at which the winds were reported. Inside of the eyewall, the reduction factor from 700mb is generally 0.91. With Rita, it seems to be a bit closer to 1.0 right now given the available data.
The temperature differential between the eye and eyewall is a measure of the efficiency of the storm and its intensity. Simply put, the subsidence within the eye can be used as a proxy for relative storm efficiency and intensity. Subsidence generally leads to heating; thus, you see temperatures in the eye warmer than those outside of it. The greater the differential, the greater the subsidence and the greater the intensity of the storm. It should be noted that the subsidence in the eye is a necessary response to the strong rising motion in the eyewall and away from the center in the convective moat & feeder bands.
The 700mb height can be used as a measure of the storm's intensity at the surface and in the lower levels. Generally, 700mb heights average around or just above 3000m. Lower heights generally lead to lower pressure and thus a more intense storm; with Rita, we haven't seen 700mb heights being all too low quite yet -- most recent of 2847m is fairly low, but nothing like the 2200-2400m seen with Katrina. It's not hard and fast, however, and will vary from storm to storm.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 11:39 PM |
|
recon interpretation
|
The adjustment from flight-level to surface winds depends on the level that the plane is flying at. The most typical levels are 700mb, in which case FL winds are multiplied by 0.9 to get surface winds, and 850mb, in which case FL winds are multiplied by 0.8. These estimates may be superseded, though, if there is other data available that gives a better idea of the surface winds.
A well-developed tropical cyclone will have the warmest temps at the center, so a stronger or developing system will have a greater temperature difference between the eyewall and the eye. I am not familiar with any rules of thumb about how the temperature difference corresponds to intensity, but others around here would know more than I do.
As for 700mb height, typically the surface pressure decreases as the 700mb height decreases, and vice versa. 700mb height generally doesn't tell you anything you can't get from the surface pressure, though it is a good idea to compare the change in 700mb height between obs to the change in surface pressure to see if anything funny might have happened with the dropsonde, causing a misleading pressure reading.
| JYarsh |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 11:46 PM |
|
Re: Category 2 Hurricane Rita in the Florida Straits
|
WOW, the eye has really exposed itself in the last hew frames....
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 11:49 PM |
|
|
Re: recon interpretation
|
While some aren't keen on my rough formula. I simply take the Max Flight Level Wind and change the knots to mph.
Last Vortex has 89kts MFLWind. Roughly 89mph at surface.
Formula for 700mb would be:
89 x 1.15=102.35mph MFLW x 0.91= 93.14mph at surface.
The 89kts to 89mph is the quick formula. And gives a rough estimate of the lower end of the maximum surface winds.
Here's the Official NHC page on Eyewall Wind Profiles.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutwindprofile.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutwindprofile.shtml#fig1
| jr928 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 12:15 AM |
|
Re: Category 2 Hurricane Rita in the Florida Straits
|
living in MS and having spent the last 3 weeks supplying items to the ravaged southern part of the state, I would hope every news outlet near houston is evacuating everyone within the cone. These days it just doesn't make sense to hang around.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 12:16 AM |
|
|
|
New Advisory-edited
|
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005
...DATA FROM THE KEY WEST NOAA DOPPLER RADAR AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...180 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
RITA IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND RITA WILL LIKELY BECOME A CATEGORY THREE OR MAJOR HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A GUST TO 70 MPH WAS REPORTED AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND A SUSTAINED WIND OF 53 MPH WITH A GUST TO 62 MPH WAS REPORTED AT DRY TORTUGAS.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES...
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 12:32 AM |
|
|
|
New Vortex
|
URNT12 KNHC 210027
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/00:09:50Z
B. 24 deg 00 min N
082 deg 41 min W
C. 700 mb 2818 m
D. NA kt
E. 000 deg 000 nm
F. 294 deg 086 kt
G. 213 deg 014 nm
H. 967 mb
I. 8 C/ 3053 m
J. 15 C/ 3050 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C32
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 1218A RITA OB 19
MAX FL WIND 94 KT NW QUAD 22:34:30 Z
note: Recon found Max Flt Lvl Wind of 103kts.
About 11 minutes after this Vortex was transmitted.~danielw
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 12:32 AM |
|
|
|
Re: New Advisory-edited
|
Hate to say that I told you so but I told you so...it slowed down. Lets just hope it doesn't slow anymore or every single model is going to explode.
967...and dropping. ouch.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 12:42 AM |
|
|
|
Re: New Advisory-edited
|
That's a drop of 27mbs in 24 hours, or an average of a mb an hour. If it sustains this rate, we could see 940mbs this time tomorrow...
We've got a monster forming.
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 12:44 AM |
|
|
|
Re: New Advisory-edited
|
Closed eyewall, fairly stable eye...and it's a looong way out across fairly warm water before it hits land. I would completely agree with you.
| SirCane |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 12:47 AM |
|
|
Re: New Advisory-edited
|
Is it possible that Rita could make a NW turn sooner than predicted?
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 12:54 AM |
|
|
|
WInds and Pressure
|
Interesting as it may be. I haven't seen any indication of an Eyewall Replacement Cycle-(ERC)...yet!
I would think that after 18 hours of dropping pressure she should start an ERC.
However her Eye is reported at "C32". 32 nautical mile Eye. A bit large to start an ERC, but I don't know of any parameters for ERC.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 12:56 AM |
|
|
downward spiral
|
startin' with rita. pressure has been falling about 1-1.5mb hr all day. that's steady intensification... nothing outlandish. at 967mb the storm is nearing the traditional cat 3 threshold. track is over post-katrina waters.. at the speed it's moving the thinned warm layer will probably be enough to support a cat 4. it'll probably be there around tomorrow night, then go through eyewall cycles as it moves into the western gulf. the western gulf isn't stirred up, so friday the storm should be moving over deep mid 80s waters. the storm should be oscillating between dennis and.. say, hugo levels of intensity as it will probably be sucking down a little subsidence here and there and be revving up and down. it could hit anywhere in this range, really no way to tell what stage it will be in. lot of the models are showing a harder turn near the coast on saturday... weakening the ridge even further than before... so my gentle curvature/earlier landfall idea may be toast. still not going to go later than saturday morning, going to keep it near sargent, tx. the official is further down the coast near palacios, but that's probably just due to the nogaps/ukmet that keep sending it into south tx. the rest of the consensus keeps painting the area from matagorda bay up to high island, and i'm staying put in the middle. worst case scenario is that it hits brazoria county directly and the inner core/right quad moves over the greater houston area... that's in the window, but most of the guidance is hanging west of there. that's still quite a lick, though. worth noting that the inland flood threat to western la, east tx, arkansas is increasing as a lot of guidance is either taking the storm sharply eastward or slowing it down in this region... should train a good deal of persistent rainfall over the region.
rest of basin: philippe can't get west thanks to that trough weakness/strong upper low in the central atlantic.. keeping the storm weaker and even further east than earlier predicted. 97L has fed into the eastern side and lost definition. some of the energy is getting pivoted around and up under that upper low... should keep an unsettled area associated with it that migrates toward the bahamas and perhaps tries to flare over the weekend as high pressure builds over the eastern u.s./western atlantic. it'll be in a shear zone and will take time to evolve, if anything. persistent storm signature showing up near the eastern caribbean near the end of the month as part of the same pattern-pulse that joe b spotted. gfs is showing a couple of wannabe features in the east atlantic as well, but it's getting kinda late in the season for those to do much.
HF 0056z21september
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 01:03 AM |
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Re: downward spiral
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Dvorak estimate up to 5.5, that's solid Cat 3 on the estimate. Dopplar estimated windspeed is almost there, though FL interpolated is a bit low still. We might verywell see Cat 3 at the 11pm.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 01:04 AM |
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Re: WInds and Pressure
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Rita has only actually had a solid eyewall for the last few hours. I don't know if that would have any impact on the timing of an ERC or not, though.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 01:15 AM |
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Rita Rita Rita
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i think she can reach cat. 4 strength by tomorrow night and hold it till saturday when she will make landfall a little farther south from Galveston. This could be extremely bad, Texas hasnt got rain in 2 weeks or so and this water to fast wont be absorbed by the dry dry ground, it will sit on top of the ground.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 01:51 AM |
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Re: Rita Rita Rita
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Quote:
i think she can reach cat. 4 strength by tomorrow night and hold it till saturday when she will make landfall a little farther south from Galveston. This could be extremely bad, Texas hasnt got rain in 2 weeks or so and this water to fast wont be absorbed by the dry dry ground, it will sit on top of the ground.
Whereever this monster goes, it will be bad. Didn't we say that about 3 weeks ago? It's true again. Looking at IR, I'd be surprised if Rita were not upgraded to Cat 3 at 11pm. The overall cloud pattern is a bit ragged on the edges, but the core is dang impressive.
ETA: I'm sure it's just a wobble (hopefully), but it looks like the eye moved NW over the last hour or so... and is definately north of the forecast track.
| Black Pearl |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:01 AM |
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Re: Rita Rita Rita
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It appears Rita has made a slight NW jog. Am I seeing this correctly ?
IR Channel 4
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:02 AM |
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Re: downward spiral
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Just got home and saw a drop of 18mb between 7am and 7pm today, and NHC 5pm intensity forecast up to 115kt (the threshold of Cat 4) starting tomorrow evng and for three days.
I can see in the last couple hours the core circulation has really organized.
This is a huge difference from this morning, but I still think there is a little bit of an intensity frenzy going on here on the board all day. Curious to hear from the board mets what is different since this morning to drive the intensity forecast changes, other than Rita's intensification all day (that is, is there anything else factoring in besides stepping up the intensity forecast because the starting point, Rita's current intensity, is higher).
I think I'll just pull up a chair and watch now.
So I see wind shear will not be a factor (thx for the link lurkerhunter!), and upper level atmosphere is aiding outflow, which looks very impressive in the GOM side of the storm, but still not clear on why water temps won't cap development at Cat 3.
Well I am certainly glad she is going to be down around 24deg lat while crossing between 85 and 89 deg log, instead of between 25 and 27.
I wonder why the NHC discussion always mentions the SHIPS model intensities when they are such an outlier (remember the 175kt forecast for Katrina...now 125kt for Rita), and don't reflect the NHC forecast. Is it just a bit of CYA?
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:04 AM |
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Re: downward spiral
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I remember you said Texas might be hit by a storm just a week or so ago. When I saw that I thought we might be in trouble.
Our local met says we may see wind and rain if the storm hits around Matagorda Bay. Also possibly power outages.
Carla did affect the whole Texas coast. Port Arthur
had four feet of water in some of its downtown area. Allison did quite a bit of damage in this area but especially Houston and she
was just a tropical storm. Last major cane to hit Houston was Alicia and she went through the downtown. Here, we haven't had a
hurricane since '86 and only a cat 1 although several tropical storms since then. Everyone is preparing early just in case.
Many of our evacuees from New Orleans were flown out, I think to Tennessee. Houston was flying some out also. Galveston
is evacuating. Better to be overprepared than not prepared.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:07 AM |
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Local Mets. take
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Latest guidance on models and the mean upper streamlined analysis.
Looking at GFS and Nam model we see that the guidance there seems a blend to the mean 100/200/500mb flow that i have analyzed with Rita. Hurricane Rita will be controlled now by a deeper layered ridge of high pressure. The Track will go West to Northwest next 3 to 5 days and the Central Texas area is highest probability of a direct hit..I used also the 100mb winds since Rita will be a major intense hurricane and she will be controlled more above the mid level steering if the winds.. As you can see this is very tight to the official forecast. If you want to use this analysis as a screen tool to tighten the verification of the best models./..this is the only way to go..
A great tribute and we should give thanks to the forecasters of the National Weather Service Office at Key West..!! Even with a near major hurricane moving to the Southwest of them they still were able to get a radiosonde balloon launch!! Way to go Key West.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:08 AM |
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Re: Rita Rita Rita
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Quote:
It appears Rita has made a slight NW jog. Am I seeing this correctly ?
IR Channel 4
You're definately not alone if you're seeing it. It'll be very interesting to see:
1) If the "jog" becomes a trend or just a jog/wobble. Chad Myers (CNN Weather guy) just confirmed that Rita has made a jog to the northwest.
2) If the NW movement results in any change to the models or the official forecast. In order for that to be the case 1) would have to materialize.
3) If the intensity forecasts hold. Right now looking at IR, and radar, I'd say they may be too conservative.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:10 AM |
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Re: Local Mets. take
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Quote:
A great tribute and we should give thanks to the forecasters of the National Weather Service Office at Key West..!! Even with a near major hurricane moving to the Southwest of them they still were able to get a radiosonde balloon launch!! Way to go Key West.
On a lighter note. I wonder just how far the radiosonde made it?? I'll have to check that one!~danielw
Hmmm. Made it all the way up. Mandatory levels.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:13 AM |
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Re: downward spiral
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SHIPS is actually one of the best-performing intensity models out there. Out intensity forecast errors are generally fairly substantial despite rapidly-improving track forecasts, unfortunately.
A note about the oceanic heat content...
Compare the following two images:
Pre-Katrina: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2005238go.jpg
Current: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2005262go.jpg
The threshold value of 60 kJ/cm^2 is denoted with the black outline. While conditions around Katrina were highly favorable in terms of energy, they aren't as much with Rita. However, they are still above the threshold values for significant storms and except for in pockets extend across the entire Gulf. The surface temperatures have recovered but the sub-surface ones haven't. Ultimately, we have tools such as the one above, but we aren't certain what is going to happen. I'd put it about equally likely that Rita maintains as a minimal cat. 3 all the way to landfall or that Rita deepens to a minimal category 5 storm over the central Gulf, with the most likely scenario lying somewhere between there.
Ultimately, the NHC is generally conservative with their intensity forecasts. Storms of high-end category 4 or low-end category 5 intensity are rare in all basins; it is somewhat like predicting record temperatures over land -- tough to do because, after all, they are records. You'll see them mention the possibility while keeping the intensity forecast more conservative. They may well be doing that here, though I think the landfall intensity of 115kt sounds about right (this is in the range I noted last night, toward the high end).
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:14 AM |
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Re: Rita Rita Rita
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think she may be at cat 3 tonight, but i wouldn't expect her to make cat 4 until she hits the Loop Current full on.... yes its a little cooler, but i think that once she passes and goes through an ERC tomorrow, i think Cat 5 is not out of the question on thurs.... Katrina went through an ERC during the night as she moved over the loop current and that next morning she blew up..... i am tending to go with a cat 3 - 4 at landfall.... just sw of Houston. I think storm surge will be another BIG problem with this system, along the texas coast.
Here's some research on the Loop Current:
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/research/
Also for Reference, Here's what Katrina did:
http://katrina.esl.lsu.edu/katrina/images/g12.050824.25.sst2.comp.gif
(GOES SST/SSH Two Day Composite - Aug 24, 25)
Current WV of Rita
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/goes/Storm/4pnl/latest_wv_loop.gif
| jr928 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:19 AM |
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Re: Rita Rita Rita
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that possible jog scares that heck out of everyone in ms and la. where is a sat frame to show the high and if it is departing sooner than scheduled? go away rita
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:22 AM |
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Re: Rita Rita Rita
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Quote:
think she may be at cat 3 tonight, but i wouldn't expect her to make cat 4 until she hits the Loop Current full on.... yes its a little cooler, but i think that once she passes and goes through an ERC tomorrow, i think Cat 5 is not out of the question on thurs.... Katrina went through an ERC during the night as she moved over the loop current and that next morning she blew up..... i am tending to go with a cat 3 - 4 at landfall.... just sw of Houston. I think storm surge will be another BIG problem with this system, along the texas coast.
I think she's already a Cat 3, and that it will be confirmed in the next 20 minutes when the 11pm advisory package is issued. Cat 4 may take 12-36 hours after that. The storm is still south of where Katrina traversed - I think - and if the northwest jog doesn't continue the storm may stay over hot water for longer than some think. Hopefully I'm wrong, but I just don't see anything to keep Rita for continuing through the roof, ERCs not withstanding. My projection for landfall is near Houston/Galveston, or possibly northeast of there, unless the NW jog continues in which case I think even as far east as Grand Isle could be possible.
NOTE: This really wouldn't put it out of the "cone", either - just have it take the northern edge rather than the center.
| jr928 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:25 AM |
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Re: Rita Rita Rita
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these latest models do show more northerly landfall than earlier today
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:27 AM |
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Re: Rita Rita Rita
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It does not look as much like a jog NW to me. It looks like the eye is tightening up and that a blow up of convection wrapping in is making it look like a NW jog
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:28 AM |
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Re: Rita Rita Rita
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With everyone talking about "where landfall will be" in terms of "center-line" only...even if it takes the centerline (which is statistically not very good), look at the forcast windfield on this behemouth!
http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/center/Tropical/wtnt02.gif
(note - Skeetobite's key is valid for it: http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/windfield.asp )
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:30 AM |
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Re: downward spiral
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Quote:
SHIPS is actually one of the best-performing intensity models out there. Out intensity forecast errors are generally fairly substantial despite rapidly-improving track forecasts, unfortunately.
Clark, I'm looking at the 00Z SHIPS and I hope it's wrong on the intensity at 84hrs.
115mph and 41nm inland.
Further out to 120hrs, still indicating 69 kts at 651nm inland.
The lat/ longs with that 120 hr look to be near Seminole,Oklahoma???
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:31 AM |
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Re: downward spiral
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URNT12 KNHC 210225
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/02:04:50Z
B. 24 deg 02 min N
083 deg 04 min W
C. 700 mb 2789 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 056 deg 097 kt
G. 325 deg 026 nm
H. 965 mb
I. 11 C/ 3050 m
J. 15 C/ 3047 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C28
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 1218A RITA OB 24
MAX FL WIND 103 KT NE QUAD 00:19:40 Z
MAX FL TEMP 16 C, 335 / 11NM
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:31 AM |
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Re: downward spiral
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Does SHIPS take into account interaction with land? I thought it didn't.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:31 AM |
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Re: Rita Rita Rita
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Quote:
these latest models do show more northerly landfall than earlier today
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
That CLP5 model scares the ... <insert 4-letter word of choice here> out of me! I don't like the BAMM models much either. BAMS looks like it's showing a WNW turn, then a WSW to SW turn, then a hard turn due north?!!? I've only see one hurricane in the Gulf do something like that (Elana in '85)... it's nerve-wracking. But that CLP5... go away CLP5!
| stevie |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:32 AM |
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Re: Rita Rita Rita
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seeing the line of cars leaving Galveston Isle reminds me alot of 1980 when Allen threatened this area. People left in droves
| Elaine H |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:33 AM |
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Re: downward spiral
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where can I get a look at the latest models?
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:34 AM |
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Re: Rita Rita Rita
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Quote:
seeing the line of cars leaving Galveston Isle reminds me alot of 1980 when Allen threatened this area. People left in droves
That's the best news I've heard all day. Hopefully they will all get out in time, if it heads that way.
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:35 AM |
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Re: downward spiral
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Clark & SH,
Thanks for posting great info. So basically Katrina almost bulls-eyed the loop current which pegs the heat content meter, but also had help from the South too. If would interesting to plot a satellite loop of Katrina over that heat content chart and watch the interaction.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:38 AM |
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Re: downward spiral
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SHIPS does not take land into account. The DSHIPS, or degenerate SHIPS, does and is used when storms do make landfall.
| La Nimo |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:39 AM |
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Re: Rita Rita Rita
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no jog moving to the west maybe at 14mph now winds should be 110 att 11: from NHC
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:39 AM |
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Re: Rita Rita Rita
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Hurricane center located near 24.1n 83.2w at 21/0300z
position accurate within 15 nm
present movement toward the west or 275 degrees at 11 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 965 mb
eye diameter 30 nm
Max sustained winds 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt.
also, brings it up to 125kts with landfall at 120kts.
New Vortex Report on previous page with updated parameters.~danielw
measured 965mb
28nm Eye
Max FL Wind 103kt NE Quad at 00:19Z
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:48 AM |
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Re: Rita Rita Rita
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Quote:
no jog moving to the west maybe at 14mph now winds should be 110 att 11: from NHC
Looks like the NW jog that I saw was immediately followed by a SW jog. Could have been alignment of the images. Looks like there is a small break in the SE eyewall right now, but that's probably temporary.
Forecast landfall is 140mph (120 kts).. with peak intensity at 145mph (125 kts).
I think I'll stay clear of the Louisiana coast just to be safe, even though it is forecast to level Houston.
| JoeF |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:57 AM |
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Re: Rita Rita Rita
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The eye should be leaving the KW Short Range shortly. Impressive site though.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kbyx.shtml
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:57 AM |
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Models
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I checked the CLP5 average error in nautical miles against the other models.
I don't know the time of this run...it's not listed. Other than "Current Run"
Model 12 hrs 24 hrs 36 hrs 48 hrs 60 hrs 72 hrs 84 hrs 96 hrs 108 hrs 120 hrs
CLP5 _66.1_ 116.4_ 175.4_ 231.1_ 296.0_ 457.9_ 628.5_ 957.5_ N/A__ N/A
The only models with more error in the mileage are:
XTRP-straight line plot!
COCE
Strangely enough. They rank the other models against the CLP5.
http://hurricane.methaz.org/hurapak/AAL182005_perf.html
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:58 AM |
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Re: Models
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We've got a new thread btw
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 03:01 AM |
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Re: Rita Rita Rita
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might as well get use to "its taking a north jog" that will happen now till landfall each time a frame goes by.