MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 04:30 AM |
Hurricane Warnings for Parts of the Florida Peninsula
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3PM EDT Update
Wilma is still moving northeast, and beginning to accellerate. It is moving at 12MPH. It's eventual landfall intensity is still in question. There are valid reasons for it to weaken (shear, fast forward motion) and valid reason for it to strengthen (water temperatures, eyewall reformation) so the best guess is to see it at a category 2, but it would be wise to prepare for a category 3.
The track is still set for landfall near Naples, with a large area on either side of the storm feeling hurricane to tropical storm force winds. The windfield will likely expand so expect winds to pick up tonight along the peninsula. Sooner in the keys, which already have some rainbands approaching. Folks should be using today to prepare.
The Cancun radar recording has been stopped, and a new recording from the Key West radar has been started here.
447AM EDT Update
Not too much has changed since last night, the track was shifted just a bit south, but the warnings cover the entire previous watch area. The large windfield will still be an issue. It looks like a Category 2 or 1 at landfall is the most likely scenario now.
Hurricane Wilma is moving slowly Northeastward. Still no significant increase in strength.
Hurricane Warnings have been extended North of Jupiter Inlet to Titusville.
Hurricane Warnings are now in effect from Longboat Key southward to the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay. And from Titusville southward to the Florida Keys, including Lake Okeechobee.
Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect from:
Steinhatchee River to Longboat Key on the West Coast.
And From Flagler Beach to Titusville on the FL East Coast.
A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect fromFernandina Beach to Flagler Beach on the Florida East Coast.
130AM EDT Update
Hurricane Wilma is back over the Gulf, and the timeline has pushed warnings into the Florida coastline, from Longboat Key (just west of Sarasota) southward, throughout the keys to Jupiter Inlet on the east coast of Florida. A Hurricane warnings means that hurricane conditions may likely be seen within 36 hours, or in this case Monday. morning (Late Sunday for the Keys)
The remainder of the Hurricane Watch Area (up to Titusville) will likely be upgraded in the morning, as it currently falls outside the 36 hour window.
The forecast track takes it near or just around Naples (this official track has been very consistant for days now) across the state and exiting near Fort Pierce, a little north of where Frances and Jeanne made landfall last year. Right now I do not see any reason to doubt that general track. The angle of approach is nowhere near as oblique as Charley was (Map showing Charley and Wilma) so that also improves the odds of Wilma's forecast track being fairly close.
The bottom line, however is that anyone in the Hurricane Warning area needs to prepare for hurricane force winds. The Hurricane center is expecting a Category 2 or 3 system upon landfall. Wilma at that time will be accelerating quickly over Florida so there is not much time for it to weaken before it reaches the East Coast. So the winds will be an issue throughout the direct path. Tropical Storm Force winds likely will be felt over a large area of the Peninsula, and Hurricane force in a smaller area near the center of Wilma.
Because of the size of Wilma storm surge may be a larger issue than Charley of last year, which was a much more compact, but stronger system.
Listen to local officials and media for more information on your specific area, and if you are in the Hurricane Warning area use tomorrow to prepare. At the very least picking up loose items outside.
More to come tomorrow morning.
Tropical Storm Alpha is moving northwest and will likely move over Hispaniola sometime tomororw, then eventuall be dragge dnorthward and be absorbed by a transitioning Wilma later in the week.
Tropical Storm Alpha Discussion
Report Conditions from Wilma in your area here
Make your landfall prediction or forecast in this topic.
(full size)
Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com Click here for full size image
Comments/Feedback on the maps look here.
Event Related Links
Stormcarib reports from Cozumel/Cancun (Includes Photos)
Stormcarib reports from the islands
Cancun Radar Animation (Flhurricane mirror) (Note: Radar hasn't sent a new image since 7:30 it will still continue to check, but the radar may be down due to Wilma)
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Long Run Animated recording of Wilma Approach Radar (Flhurricane mirror of NWS radars) (
Emergency Management/County info
Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL
Lee County, FL
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL
Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh
Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
Florida Today (Brevard County)
Orlando Sentinel
Tampa Tribune
Miami Herald
Daytona Beach News Journal
News Press (Southwest Florida)
Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)
Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, will likely be doing his live audio show as Wilma approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here He usually starts at 8PM eastern and runs until the 11PM advisory comes out.
Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is heading toward South Florida see some of his live streaming video and audio here
Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports from the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX (not affiliated with the real NHC)
Barometer Bob
WebCams
Royal Resorts Webcams in Cancun
The Royal Sands Animated WebCam (Flhurricane Mirrored)
Reply and let us know of other links.
Wilma
* NEW * Skeetobite Animated Model Graphic
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of Wilma - Static Image
Wilma Microwave Imagery Animation
Floater Satellite with storm track overlays
Weather Underground Model Plots
cimss page
Tropical Storm Alpha
* NEW * Skeetobite Animated Model Graphic of TD#25
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of TD#25 - Static Image
cmss page
| Doombot! |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 05:07 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings for Parts of Florida
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Looks like it's going to be windy here in Lakeland. This will be a hurricane like no other with the storm one afternoon and a low of 50 degrees that night.
| Multi-Decadal Signal |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 05:18 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings for Parts of Florida
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If the lights are out we won't miss the A/C and the mosquitoes won't be a problem either. We'll be able to enjoy a hurricane aftermath for once.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 05:19 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings for Parts of Florida
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I hope that windy is the best term for it . And nothing else. And even windy is too much.
| gavsie |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 05:26 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings for Parts of Florida
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If two storm masses collide it creates more of a risk for tornadic activity, correct? I'm just wonder how bad we here in the central area will have it. I hate to admitt it but I have done very little to prepare for this one. I guess I will be buying a few things tomorrow.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 05:30 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings for Parts of Florida
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One more day to prepare. Just in case.
Batteries, water, fuel, canned food, check your list and make sure.....
then get ready for Monday.........
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 05:32 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings for Parts of Florida
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The latest information I read says that the risk of Tornados is limited due to the stable air behind the cold front. I hope they are not mistaken. However I do have a question about when the cane passes into Atlantic, and goes Zooming to New England, If the coast of Florida will continue to be effected by this hurricane all the way up the east coast until she is out of our area?Florida
| Multi-Decadal Signal |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 05:32 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings for Parts of Florida
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You are correct regarding increased tornadic activity but the heads up from the NWS still says that the probabilities are slim.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/hazards/?type=tornado
| satellite steve |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 05:34 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings for Parts of Florida
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Tornadic activity is likely -- mostly concentrated ahead of frontal boundary and SE of Wilma's circulation center - at least by current forecast Seminole County is likely to be on N and thereby safer side of the circulation center
| gavsie |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 05:37 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings for Parts of Florida
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I think I like tornados less than hurricanes. I was hoping there might not be too much of an issue with them. After living aroung tornado alley I think I can do without them.
| satellite steve |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 05:38 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings for Parts of Florida
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as Wilma is likely to be moving along at >20mph and the frontal boundary will push by behind her with cooler/dryer air E coast of Fl is not likely to have lingering effects
High temps Tues are likely to be in low 70's lows in 50's with clear skies
| mojorox |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 05:44 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings for Parts of Florida
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The 11:55 NWS melbourne statement is pretty intense. They stress that the track is still uncertain and to be ready for some wind.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?wa...Local+Statement
| jlauderdal |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 05:45 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings for Parts of Florida
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Quote:
You are correct regarding increased tornadic activity but the heads up from the NWS still says that the probabilities are slim.
yeah until this morning at 6 when they issue another product. if you think the probablity of tornados will be low through this event then you have another thing coming.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 05:52 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings for Parts of Florida
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URNT12 KNHC 230544
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/05:28:40Z
B. 21 deg 49 min N
086 deg 48 min W
C. 700 mb 2759 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 072 deg 079 kt
G. 342 deg 030 nm
H. 962 mb
I. 8 C/ 3045 m
J. 14 C/ 3047 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO20-60
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 2024A WILMA OB 06
MAX FL WIND 79 KT N QUAD 05:20:00 Z
INNER EYEWALL IS RAGGED
| Multi-Decadal Signal |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 06:06 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings for Parts of Florida
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Midnight Sunday - Miami Local Office
...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS...
TROPICAL CYCLONES MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO HAVE A HISTORY OF BEING PROLIFIC TORNADO
PRODUCERS...PARTICULARLY WHEN INTERACTING WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT. HURRICANE ISBELL PRODUCED AT LEAST 13 TORNADOES ON A
PATH SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST WILMA PATH IN OCTOBER 1964. ALL OF
SOUTH FLORIDA HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH THIS THREAT INCREASING LATER SUNDAY...AND COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT AS THE STORM APPROACHES THE STATE AND RAIN BANDS BEGIN
IMPACTING THE LOCAL AREA.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 06:06 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings for Parts of Florida
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Couldn't sleep again, so I came to see if Danny was having a fun time tonight yet.
YesWilma is already having trouble with the dry air.
Earlier when a patch of dry air pushed into the western side while she was over land, she neatly incorporated it into the large eye and then when she moved offshore she closed the gap with convection (now that's the way to make lemonade out of lemons). But that convection just got sheared off again. Also dry air had worked its way completely around the Yucatan and eroded the SE side of the storm, and now that is also happening again, coming very close to the SE eyewall. The convection gets going again and in the next sat frame it has that splat! Lady Cottington pressed fairy, bed head look.
I thought she was trying on her Halloweens Masks?~danielw
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 06:08 AM |
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00z model scenario
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most of the guidance from 00z is very clustered. pretty much all of the dynamic and global guidance is pushing the hurricane across a corridor in florida bound by port charlotte and everglades city on the west coast, west palm and sebastian on the east coast. still personally camping on fort myers. the cat 2/3 official intensity i'm going to roll with, since like the forecast track it agrees with ideas i've had for a while (excepting that i didn't think the hurricane would make it ashore in the yucatan a few days back, and thought tomorrow would be the impact day up until thursday). there's a double eyewall structure and the hurricane will have a very hard time shaking it. got a hunch that it will morph into an asymmetrical system that is slightly stronger tomorrow as shear and momentum increase.
after florida the hurricane will likely continue to be a threat. the official track doesn't favor it, but almost all of the global guidance has the hurricane clipping cape cod and hitting maine or nova scotia late tuesday night or early wednesday morning... as a hybrid baroclinic system. notable that these models show a deepening system. mind that the hurricane may maintain a warm core to quite a latitude as it accelerates ahead of the trough. i wouldn't be surprised if the entire area around the gulf of maine experiences hurricane conditions.
it is worth noting that tropical storm alpha is progged to drive north and entrain into wilma's right quad in the newer official forecast. with modeling showing deeper penetration of the shortwaves over land and the hurricane undergoing a phasing event, i'm thinking that this solution of alpha rocketing northward is looking more feasible. the tropical storm is going to cross the thick part of the island, so there is a chance it won't survive the crossing or won't recover any from it.
again worth noting that global models show one or two areas of interest next week. the first is the wake of wilma, in the sw caribbean. the hurricane will leave a large weakness in the trades around there, with perhaps a weak sw flow off the pacific. it's at the periphery of the upper ridge dominating the caribbean, with modest surface convergence.. a low pressure area is shown on several models, though none do much with it. the feature is slowly lost or gives way to the other from the east.
the second area is a gfs favorite. gfs shows a low materializing off a wave east of the islands, driving into the caribbean under the subtropical ridge, and developing into a weak tropical system. sketchy near the beginning of november as gfs shows a some energy pulsing into a coastal storm from the nw caribbean... were a tropical system there it would probably lift across cuba. thereafter gfs keeps low pressure in the western caribbean through the end of its forecast cycle. it all isn't quite adding up yet, but there does appear to be the potential for more action in the caribbean. both of these systems have shown up in multiple model runs, just not completely convincing yet.
HF 0608z23october
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 06:20 AM |
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Re: 00z model scenario
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This update has nothing to do with Hank's post above. Just my bad timing.
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
137 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
VALID OCT 23/0000 UTC THRU OCT 26/1200 UTC
MODEL TRENDS...
..HURCN WILMA
THE 00Z NAM IS SLOWER AND FARTHER S WITH THE TRACK OF WILMA THRU DAY 2 THAN THE 12Z NAM. ON DAY 3...THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER LIFTING WILMA NWD ALONG THE E COAST...BUT TRENDS FASTER TURNING THE SYS EXTRATROP AND ABSORBING IT INTO THE FNTL SYS ASSOC WITH THE UPR LOW OVER THE GRTLKS/OH VLY. THE 00Z GFS IS MORE SLY WITH THE TRACK OF WILMA ON DAYS 1-2 THAN THE 12Z GFS. ALSO ON DAY 2...THE GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY FARTHER E WITH THE SYS...BUT BY DAY 3...THE GFS WRAPS MORE OF THE H5 ENERGY ASSOC WITH WILMA AROUND THE NERN SIDE OF THE H5 LOW OVER THE OH VLY/GRTLKS AND SHIFTS THE SFC LOW FARTHER W THAN THE 12Z RUN.
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...
...OVERALL...
THERE SEEMS TO BE SUPPORT FOR THE GFS SCENARIO IN THE NRN STREAM...BUT IT IS A DIFFERENT STORY IN THE SRN STREAM WHERE THE NHC FORECAST TRACK FOR WILMA IS SLOWER AND MORE ELY THAN THE UKMET AND GFS ON DAY 3. IF WILMA MOVES FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...THE H5 ENERGY ASSOC WITH THE SYS COULD GET WRAPPED AROUND THE NERN SIDE OF THE H5 LOW OVER THE ERN GRTLKS LIKE THE UKMET AND GFS...BUT SEEING THAT THERE IS LITTLE 18Z NCEP ENS SUPPORT FOR THIS SCENARIO... THAT THE OTHER OP GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT THE MORE WLY UKMET/GFS ..AND MOST IMPORTANTLY THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A MORE ELY PSN...CAN NOT RECOMMEND THE GFS ON DAY 3 IN THE NRN STREAM. THE 18Z NCEP ENS MEAN SEEMS LIKE THE BEST BET FOR NOW AS IT IS CLOSER TO THE NHC PSN FOR WILMA AND IT ADOPTS THE H5 LOW PSN OF THE GFS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VLY BY THE END OF THE PD.
..HURCN WILMA
THE NOGAPS AND NAM CARRY WILMA ON A MUCH SLOWER/MORE SLY TRACK THAN THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST THRU FL. AS THE SYS MOVES UP THE E COAST...THE 72 HR OFFICIAL NHC PSN FOR THE EXTRATROP LOW ASSOC WITH WILMA IS CLOSEST TO THE CAN GLOB... NOGAPS...AND 18Z NCEP ENS MEAN PSNS...HOLDING THE LOW OFF CAPE COD WHICH IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND UKMET SOLNS. OVERALL...THE CAN GLOB IS CLOSEST TO THE NHC TRACK. SEE THE LATEST NHC BULLETIN FOR DETAILS ON WILMA.
http://kamala.cod.edu/HPC/latest.fxus10.KWNH.html
| FreakedInFlorida |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 06:40 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings for Parts of Florida
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Thanks for your detailed reply Steve to my inquiry about Fort Pierce. It should be interesting. We've never actually sat through a storm in a house before, but usually opted for a motel or shelter in the past. I imagine the noise will be the scariest. In the shelter, couldn't hear it. Good luck to all in the path and thanks for the advice that everyone shows on here, makes it easier to understand then just what the news says.
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 06:46 AM |
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Inner eyewall reforming?
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fascinating,
does anyone else see what appears to be the inner eyewall reforming?
-Mark
| Doombot! |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 06:49 AM |
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Re: Inner eyewall reforming?
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Quote:
fascinating,
does anyone else see what appears to be the inner eyewall reforming?
-Mark
Looks that way to me too, but that's crazy talk!
Looks like the models from http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_24.gif that are dated 0600z show a push south again. I'm starting to feel comforatable with the Naples forcast.
| zacker20 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 06:52 AM |
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Wilma's turn to the northeast begins... *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 06:56 AM |
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Re: Wilma's turn to the northeast begins...
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The turn to the Northeast is not unexpected and is part of the forecast. Look at the sats with the forecast overlay. Interesting that you state that, but there is very little support for that scenario.
| Doombot! |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:02 AM |
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Re: Wilma's turn to the northeast begins... *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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Looks to be dead-on the NHC track, sorry. The 6:15 frame shows a very nice double-eye; the inner eye seems to completly reformed on that frame.
| Geoff |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:14 AM |
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Re: Wilma's turn to the northeast begins... *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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If you animate this GOES image you can see that it is building higher clouds as well.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:19 AM |
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Eye
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Now that I got that problem fixed. i can answer your posts.
Recon reported Concentric Eyewalls on their 0528Z pass. A 20 mile, and a 60 mile diameter Eye.
| Big Tk |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:24 AM |
Re: Eye
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danielw
where is the inner eye located to the east side or west side of the larger eye? NHC has it moving to the NE at last report. It's looks more ENE to me.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:34 AM |
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Re: Eye
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I have been looking at this for a bit, and its moving NE. Seems to be on track with two of the models, the GFS and the UKMET for now. GFDL and CAN Models both had this thing gaining more latitude within the first 12 hours off the coast of the Yukitan. The NOGAPS, appears to be slow.. Storm seems to be moving with the forecast points, albeit maybe a tad west of them, but a little difficult to tell because of the double eyes ..
Double eye walls make it a little more difficult to track, at least for me.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:46 AM |
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Re: Eye
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I made hard copies, thinking that would make it easier to track the Double Eyewalls.
It didn't work either.
?Possibility of cycloidal movements with the Double Eyes?
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:50 AM |
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Re: Eye
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Yes, which I think will give me a headache tracking.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:54 AM |
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Re: Eye
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It is not likely that the inner eyewall will reform because of the dry air already between the two eyewalls, even with the inner eye developing convection. What is more likely to happen is that the ragged inner eyewall will expand instead of reforming, and pieces of it will be absorbed into the outer eyewall, which will have been decreasing as well (already went from 70 to 60nm).
Notice that the SW corner of the outer eyewall is still not off the coast. For the past 3-4 hours she's hardly moved at all, and the longer she takes to get to the loop current, the further along the ERC will be. There are a lot of other factors for intensity, but the timing will be critical in either helping her to strengthen rapidly, or to keep her from strengthening much, and all this will occur not too many hours away from landfall.
I wanted to add that recon shows the pressure is dropping and the temp diff is increasing, so she's turned the corner so to speak, and has started reintensifying. It looks like she's been making headway against the dry air as well in the past couple hours, because the entire windfield has had a significant rise in moisture (on the wv loop, see the blue area grow).
| jeangfl |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 09:27 AM |
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Re: Eye
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Is this really the last post? It's been 1.5 hrs.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 09:51 AM |
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Re: Eye
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No obvious changes here except for the Inner Eyewall notation. Line " I " , the temperature outside the Eye has warmed by 2degC over the last 72minutes.
Fix is 13min N and 5min E of last fix.
Or 0.2 N/ -0.1W. That looks to be near NNE.
A 1:1 or 2:2 ratio would be due NE.
URNT12 KNHC 230943
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/09:17:40Z
B. 22 deg 11 min N
086 deg 31 min W
C. 700 mb 2749 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 359 deg 081 kt
G. 265 deg 076 nm
H. 960 mb
I. 10 C/ 3051 m
J. 14 C/ 3044 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C65
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 2024A WILMA OB 26
MAX FL WIND 91 KT S QUAD 07:19:10 Z
REMNENT INNER EYE 16 NM DIA. 50% COVERAGE. OPEN W SEMICIRCLE.
| trinibaje |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 09:58 AM |
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Re: Eye
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Ok at least I am not the only one who could not sleep...
I took a look at Skeetobite map... he shows hurricane force winds entering western dade county... am i seeing this correctly... Danny any thoughts on this....
I should know better, but i have not put up my shutters yet... due partly in fact that my hubby is out of the country and i don't want to bug friends to help.. but I am reconsidering this morning to call in the troops early.. any thoughts???? btw i live in South West Dade County and was flooded in by Katrina... so i am a litle hurricane disgusted right now
:?:
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 10:15 AM |
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Thoughts
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I have gotten several PMs in the last few minutes. I wish I could say without a doubt that Wilma would be a Cat1 at landfall. I can't say that...neither can NHC.
I'm using what I learned from Katrina to react. And that may not apply here. I hope It Doesn't.
The best that I could tell you is. If you live in an area thatis Low and Floods. Go to Higher ground. I have seen predictions of up to 5 inches per hour in some of the HLS and discussions this morning.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/index_hls4.shtml
If you have large, tall trees around your house, it might be a good idea to secure things that you don't want to get wet. And seek shelter elsewhere. Whether it's a motel, Emergency Shelter or family and friends.
Just take your time and don't get in too much of a hurry.
If you choose to stay at home. Make sure several people know that you are there. They have your cellphone number, and any other information you deem important.
Persons with medical/ medicine needs will need to plan on keeping their medications safe and if perishable-refridgerated.
http://www.cdc.gov has very good links.
http://www.bt.cdc.gov/disasters/hurricanes/index.asp
| nowhammies |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 10:19 AM |
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Re: Eye
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Quote:
No obvious changes here except for the Inner Eyewall notation. Line " I " , the temperature outside the Eye has warmed by 2degC over the last 72minutes.
2 questions regarding that -
1. Am I correct in assuming that implys weakening rather than strenghtening - colder temps = stronger correct?
It varies from storm to storm, but this would mean that the air outside the Eye had warmed by 2degC.~danielw
2. After yesterdays crash course in reading these reports, I notice that this one shows an increase in Flight Level winds from 70 something last night at midnightish to 95 this morning - this seems like a significant difference. Is it not a big deal because it is expected that it would be higher on the south side of the storm than the north slide (which is where I think last nights measuement was from)
If you are reading the Vortex reports. An increase from 70 to 90 is fairly important. Read-strenghtening. Otherwise the wind speed increase would have to be in the same lat/long area as the previous one (my opinion only)~danielw
Thanks for your help
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 10:19 AM |
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Re: Thoughts
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Most of all, Stay Safe!
There are plenty of Advisories on the front page.
I'll see you tonight~danielw
| StPeteBill |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 10:21 AM |
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Re: Thoughts
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Quote:
I have gotten several PMs in the last few minutes. I wish I could say without a doubt that Wilma would be a Cat1 at landfall. I can't say that...neither can NHC.
I'm using what I learned from Katrina to react. And that may not apply here. I hope It Doesn't.
The best that I could tell you is. If you live in an area thatis Low and Floods. Go to Higher ground. I have seen predictions of up to 5 inches per hour in some of the HLS and discussions this morning.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/index_hls4.shtml
If you have large, tall trees around your house, it might be a good idea to secure things that you don't want to get wet. And seek shelter elsewhere. Whether it's a motel, Emergency Shelter or family and friends.
Just take your time and don't get in too much of a hurry.
If you choose to stay at home. Make sure several people know that you are there. They have your cellphone number, and any other information you deem important.
Persons with medical/ medicine needs will need to plan on keeping their medications safe and if perishable-refridgerated.
http://www.cdc.gov has very good links.
http://www.bt.cdc.gov/disasters/hurricanes/index.asp
Are there specific areas you are concentrating on when you "seek shelter elsewhere". We are in St Pete approx. 5 miles from the beach.
| Joshua |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 10:32 AM |
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Re: Thoughts
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According to the NHC, you all in St. Petersburg shouldn't be getting too much in the way of storm surge. In fact, the water may even be pushed out a bit due to the winds. Also, you may not be getting much more than strong tropical storm gusts, so I wouldn't evacuate if it were me and I live 5 miles from the beach as well here in Ft. Lauderdale.
But as always, do what you local officials tell you to do. Call you local county EOC office's rumor control hotline and ask them if you should evacuate.
http://www.co.pinellas.fl.us/bcc/emergency/
| KC |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 10:34 AM |
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Re: Thoughts
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For the SW Florida crowd online, ABC-7 and Fox-4 are now broadcasting live. We were hoping someone would be on soon. The local news stations have also published the lists of radio stations that will simulcast if you need it.
We are inland Collier County, between Exit 111 of I-75 and Immokalee, an area that is supposed to be surge safe to a 4/5. Our area has been deemed safer than most because the special needs shelter is Palmetto Ridge HS, around the corner from the community we live in. We are 2000 construction and the trees haven't grown enough yet to be a hazard as Daniel mentioned.
Stay safe everyone!
Karen
| jeangfl |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 10:37 AM |
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Re: Thoughts
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Thanks KC - we're from Ft. Myers - have been up since 4:30 - waiting for someone to get on tv - think we are leaving for Orlando before 9 a.m. - hoping for the best - good luck to you!
| Joshua |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 10:41 AM |
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Re: Thoughts
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On color IR satellite imagery, it looks as if cloud tops around the inner eyewall are both starting to wrap around the center and are getting colder. Anyone else agree on this one? It may be slightly strengthening. Anyone know when the next recon fix is?
| jlauderdal |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 10:53 AM |
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Re: Thoughts
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Quote:
On color IR satellite imagery, it looks as if cloud tops around the inner eyewall are both starting to wrap around the center and are getting colder. Anyone else agree on this one? It may be slightly strengthening. Anyone know when the next recon fix is?
its looking better organized.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 11:08 AM |
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Re: Thoughts
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Here is a blurb from local forecast NWS, on the cold front. It says it will come to the local area and then start to back up. Would this have a pulling effect on the hurricane to pull more north? Just asking.
SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO LEVY COUNTY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT SOUTH TO JUST
NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING
BACK NORTH OVERNIGHT AS EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF WILMA.
COMBINATION OF THIS FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF WILMA WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TODAY
WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY.
| Ronn |
| (User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 11:21 AM |
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Re: Thoughts
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Wilma is looking slightly better organized this morning, and with warm water ahead of it, it could intensity a little more during the next 12 hours. However, with dry air continuing to intrude in the storm, and progressively more shear, I expect that the storm should not intensify much more. Because the storm is moving along with the shear--not against it--there should not be any significant weakening. Local TV mets here in Tampa are nitpicking every little wobble of the center, but based on my interpretation of the latest IR imagery, it still looks like Wilma is on track for a Naples landfall. It also appears that Wilma is starting to accelerate a little more.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 11:24 AM |
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Re: Thoughts
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Looks like a wobble to me. With the situation basically unchanged for several advisories, I guess they have to focus on something to fill air time.
| jeangfl |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 11:33 AM |
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Re: Thoughts
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thanks everyone for all of the great info - will be shutting computer down and leaving FM within the hour - best of luck and be safe - Jean G.
| ZooKeeper |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 11:33 AM |
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Re: Thoughts
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I can confirm the front is definitely moving in. I'm about halfway between Cedar Key and Chiefland and the current temp is only about 65 degrees. Yesterday at the same ime we were in the 70's. The sun is starting to come up though so I don't think we'll go any lower.
| jusforsean |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 11:34 AM |
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Re: Thoughts
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Goodmorning all.... Like me I am sure everyone slept with one eye on Wilma. I know it's coming because this morning my asthma is really bad , always before a storm! Either way Just wanted to post that last night I say a weather man I think Don on 10 talking about the potential for stronger than usual tornadoes with this one ie. F2 150+ wind the potential is there he says and with that I also say how packed the streets in the Keys were and how many people were staying. A huricane is one thing bad enough but add the risk for tornadoes. I would hope that anyone in the keys left would reconsider they said they had about 10 hours before conditions worsen. Just wanted to throw it our there for anyone who might not be aware. My hubby really wanted to drive out of the state today , the idea is tempting but with 3 kids under 7 and 2 dogs I dont think we would get very far. But I will be leaving my mobile home to fend for herself here. Scary because the winds are coming from a different direction this time, not good for my house! Everyone stay safe.
| Rdietch |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 11:38 AM |
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Re: Thoughts
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woke up track shifted south models even more south plus no wobble its moving NE.
Looks to me to take it below Naples.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 11:39 AM |
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Key West long range radar is showing the first feeder band sweeping across western Cuba this morning.
| jlauderdal |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 11:43 AM |
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Quote:
Goodmorning all.... Like me I am sure everyone slept with one eye on Wilma. I know it's coming because this morning my asthma is really bad , always before a storm! Either way Just wanted to post that last night I say a weather man I think Don on 10 talking about the potential for stronger than usual tornadoes with this one ie. F2 150+ wind the potential is there he says and with that I also say how packed the streets in the Keys were and how many people were staying. A huricane is one thing bad enough but add the risk for tornadoes. I would hope that anyone in the keys left would reconsider they said they had about 10 hours before conditions worsen. Just wanted to throw it our there for anyone who might not be aware. My hubby really wanted to drive out of the state today , the idea is tempting but with 3 kids under 7 and 2 dogs I dont think we would get very far. But I will be leaving my mobile home to fend for herself here. Scary because the winds are coming from a different direction this time, not good for my house! Everyone stay safe.
very good idea to evac the mobile home, no question mobile home residents need to leave if you are asked too.
| StPeteBill |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 11:44 AM |
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Re: Thoughts
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Quote:
Goodmorning all.... Like me I am sure everyone slept with one eye on Wilma. I know it's coming because this morning my asthma is really bad
WOW, I never noticed or realized a correlation with the two. An asthma flare up is actually what woke me up this morning. This is the first time I have had to use my inhaler in months.
| Sheeper |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 11:45 AM |
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Re: Thoughts
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Still quiet here on the Treasure Coast. I expect we'll see this picking up toward the wee hours of monday morning. I'll be opening shelters at 1700 today so it will be a long, busy night. We're still expecting a (minimal?) Cat 1 here with winds from 60 to 80/85 depening on the exact track. The further south, the lower our winds here.
The sat this morning looks like Wilma is getting ragged. Am I mistaken thinking i'm seeing a lot of cooler, drier air cracking into her?
I'll be heading out to the Red Cross command center shortly getting our ducks in a row. My one word of wisdom is "if your government officials tell you to evacuate....DO IT!". If you have any doubt about your safety...LEAVE! We keep our shelters as safe and as "fun" as possible.
Good luck to everyone....stay dry, stay safe!
| swimaway19 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 11:52 AM |
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Re: Thoughts
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How accurate do you think this Wunderground weather map is? It shows the cold front to be already south of Tampa. I know the front is predicted to retreat north again, but was it expected to go this far south?
http://www.wunderground.com/US/Region/US/2xpxFronts.html
| Rdietch |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 11:55 AM |
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Re: Thoughts
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The 06 GFS has it coming in around FT Myers now and i look for the track to move more south.Plus i don't see cat 3 in sight so Good news on all ends.Keep watch but this storm looks to be headed south oer model runs see ya later today.
| StPeteBill |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 11:56 AM |
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Re: Thoughts
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I sure don't think it has passed. I am in St Pete and the temperature at my house right now is 79 degrees and muggy as all get out.
| maddie |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 11:57 AM |
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Re: Thoughts
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Yep having problems with my asthma this morning to....doesn't help that my air conditioner went last night so its a tad warm here, would welcome a little breeze here but not to much, lol....from what I am getting from the local stations they seem to think we will be in the clear as far as landfall is concerned...do all of you guys agree that a more northward shift is less likely?
| evergladesangler |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 11:58 AM |
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Re: Thoughts
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06 NOGAPS has it going over the Keys. GFS is now the only major model north of Marco. She's going to start interacting with Western Cuba soon too. Dry air west, shear from the north, and land to the east should keep her down.
| ChessieStorm |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 11:59 AM |
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Re: Thoughts
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Quote:
How accurate do you think this Wunderground weather map is? It shows the cold front to be already south of Tampa. I know the front is predicted to retreat north again, but was it expected to go this far south?Quote:
The front isn't that far south yet. I'm in Hernando County and we are 74°, humidity at 95%, dewpoint is 73°. The wind is northeast and very light, almost calm.
I've been outside a couple of times this a.m. and it feels like it did last night -- sticky. So it hasn't gotten to me yet, let alone Tampa.
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 11:59 AM |
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Re: Thoughts
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Quote:
How accurate do you think this Wunderground weather map is? It shows the cold front to be already south of Tampa. I know the front is predicted to retreat north again, but was it expected to go this far south?
http://www.wunderground.com/US/Region/US/2xpxFronts.html
I check the fronts on the NOAA site. After the loop loads click the top where it says NWS fronts.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-ir4-loop.html
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 12:01 PM |
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Re: Thoughts
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The cold front is near Cedar Key and the points just south/Cross city etc. A few degrees difference in one air massand another makes the cooler one a cold front. It does not describe the temperature very well. The dryer air does look like it is entraining on the Cuba side of the storm. I am assuming that it is interaction with land causing this. It makes the whole storm look elongated on satellite. Barometric Pressure at my location is 29.73 and rising!
| Ronn |
| (User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 12:02 PM |
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Quote:
I sure don't think it has passed. I am in St Pete and the temperature at my house right now is 79 degrees and muggy as all get out.
I can verify this. The surface front has definitely not passed through Pinellas County. Temperatures are still in the 70s with only a light east wind. I think the front is already retreating north. I don't see any major change in the forecast track: continued acceleration to the northeast with a landfall near Naples.
| KC |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 12:03 PM |
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Re: Thoughts
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Naples is 79 and humid, with the pressure holding steady. I'll know when the pressure starts to drop because I get headaches - I don't have asthma, just allergies but I always react to pressure changes (I always experienced the same before snowstorms when I lived in PA). We are as ready as possible and hoping for the best. The dogs have learned their new command - CLOSET!
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 12:03 PM |
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Track
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The 5 a.m official NHC track goes across the state from Marco Island to Jupiter. Most of the guidance now shows a track from south of Naples to south of West Palm Beach. We are definitely in a warm and muggy air mass ahead of the storm. My dew point has been 76/77 degrees all night long with a low temperature of only 79 degrees. Pressure is down to 29.74" from 29.82" yesterday at this time. I will have my weather station up and running as long as I have power.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 12:05 PM |
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Re: Thoughts
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As of 8am,she is holding her own.Winds still 100mph and presure is the same also.Tampa is out of the cone.
| evergladesangler |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 12:12 PM |
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new GFDL around Flamingo
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Model run at 11:27Z:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_24.gif
Looks like this could be a reverse Katrina track across Florida.
| JustMe |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 12:15 PM |
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Re: Thoughts
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Orlando is muggy this am as well
They are trying to decide to close schools here tomorrow or not
I wouldn't want to responsible for kids on a bus and have the winds blowing tropical strength
| JustMe |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 12:26 PM |
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can someone please tell me the date Katrina hit Florida
| maddie |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 12:27 PM |
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Re: Thoughts
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I am waiting for the same thing in Pasco County...the alarm company I work for mandates that service vehicles can not be on the road in 35mph winds +, you would think the same would apply for buses....
| JustMe |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 12:29 PM |
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I belive they said here 40 miles per hour for school buses
Brevard county just announced school closings
| chase 22 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 12:32 PM |
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Re: Thoughts
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Quote:
According to the NHC, you all in St. Petersburg shouldn't be getting too much in the way of storm surge. In fact, the water may even be pushed out a bit due to the winds. Also, you may not be getting much more than strong tropical storm gusts, so I wouldn't evacuate if it were me and I live 5 miles from the beach as well here in Ft. Lauderdale.
But as always, do what you local officials tell you to do. Call you local county EOC office's rumor control hotline and ask them if you should evacuate.
http://www.co.pinellas.fl.us/bcc/emergency/
You have to remember that St. Petersburg is a penninsula surrounded by water on 3 sides. I agree with you if you live close to the beach. However, winds coming out of the NE and eventually the East will pile the water in Tampa Bay on the west side which happens to be the lowest parts of Pinellas Cty (Shore Acres, Snell Isle). Thes areas flood very easily even with a strong thunderstorm. I have a good friend who lives in shore acres and she gets flooded all the time. IMO Anybody living in or near the Shore Acres, Snell Isle area should prepare for flooding. I would hope that nobody has any problems whatsoever with Wilma. My thoughts and prayers are with everybody that will get affected.
On another note...Pinellas Cty schools are on a wait and see basis. This I don't understand since the NWS is calling for sustained winds at 44-47mph with gusts to 60 and school buses can't drive in winds 35+. I would think that wouldn't take any chances but, they're the professionals right???
| Joshua |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 12:32 PM |
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Re: Thoughts *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| chase 22 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 12:35 PM |
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Re: Thoughts
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Quote:
I am waiting for the same thing in Pasco County...the alarm company I work for mandates that service vehicles can not be on the road in 35mph winds +, you would think the same would apply for buses....
Waste Management will close at 35mph. I Work at the Pinellas Transfer station, and we have completed all of our preps. We are on what they call emergency standby for tomorrow
| pincty |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 12:35 PM |
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Re: Thoughts
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I'm in No. Pinellas wondering the same. When I went to sleep, I thought school would be cancelled as it appeared that Ft. Myers would be the area most likely to be hit. But now it could hit a good way south of there thus the winds may not hit TS strength.
| maddie |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 12:35 PM |
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Re: Thoughts
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I guess as parents we will just have to decide for ourselves if we should send our kids to school on Monday or not.....I have a quick question , how wide is the eye of the storm now and what is the approx size of the storm ?
| JustMe |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 12:35 PM |
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thanks Josh I couldn't remember seems like an eon ago we have been watching Wilma so long.
| Joshua |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 12:36 PM |
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Re: Thoughts
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Quote:Quote:
According to the NHC, you all in St. Petersburg shouldn't be getting too much in the way of storm surge. In fact, the water may even be pushed out a bit due to the winds. Also, you may not be getting much more than strong tropical storm gusts, so I wouldn't evacuate if it were me and I live 5 miles from the beach as well here in Ft. Lauderdale.
But as always, do what you local officials tell you to do. Call you local county EOC office's rumor control hotline and ask them if you should evacuate.
http://www.co.pinellas.fl.us/bcc/emergency/
You have to remember that St. Petersburg is a penninsula surrounded by water on 3 sides. I agree with you if you live close to the beach. However, winds coming out of the NE and eventually the East will pile the water in Tampa Bay on the west side which happens to be the lowest parts of Pinellas Cty (Shore Acres, Snell Isle). Thes areas flood very easily even with a strong thunderstorm. I have a good friend who lives in shore acres and she gets flooded all the time. IMO Anybody living in or near the Shore Acres, Snell Isle area should prepare for flooding. I would hope that nobody has any problems whatsoever with Wilma. My thoughts and prayers are with everybody that will get affected.
On another note...Pinellas Cty schools are on a wait and see basis. This I don't understand since the NWS is calling for sustained winds at 44-47mph with gusts to 60 and school buses can't drive in winds 35+. I would think that wouldn't take any chances but, they're the professionals right???
As I said before, according to the NHC it shouldn't be that bad for residents. I don't live there, and I don't know how the conditions can get with certain types of storms. Therefore, always listen to your local officials when making decisions. I can't seem to stress that enough. If your local EOC tells you to leave for this storm. leave for it. It's really that simple.
Taking the advice of professionals with some years of experience is usually preferred over speculation or sometimes educated guesses on a forum.
| cainwatch |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 12:36 PM |
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Re: Thoughts
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Anyone know when Brevard will start to get Tropical force winds?
| chase 22 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 12:37 PM |
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Re: Thoughts
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Quote:
can someone please tell me the date Katrina hit Florida
8/25/05?? maybe 8/26
| Joshua |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 12:38 PM |
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Re: Thoughts
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Quote:
I guess as parents we will just have to decide for ourselves if we should send our kids to school on Monday or not.....I have a quick question , how wide is the eye of the storm now and what is the approx size of the storm ?
Hurricane force winds extend outward some 70 miles, with tropical storm force winds up to 200 miles from the center.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 12:39 PM |
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Re: Thoughts
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Looks like the core is trying to re-develope.That is what we do not want to see.
| Joshua |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 12:41 PM |
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Re: Thoughts
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Quote:
Anyone know when Brevard will start to get Tropical force winds?
According to the current NWS forecast, tonight you will most likely get gusts to tropical storm force.
| Joshua |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 12:42 PM |
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Re: Thoughts
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Yeah, I've been seeing that for a couple hours now as well. We'll see what the NHC says about it in the coming hours.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 12:47 PM |
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Re: Thoughts
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Good morning all, what a diff a few hours makes, referring to the Front and how far it has now dipped down. Also, looks like she may be jiggling just a tiny tiny bit E or SE of the forecast point?
| chase 22 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 12:49 PM |
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Re: Thoughts
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for anybody interested. Fox 13 in Tampa has started their ongoing live coverage.
| R-U-Q-R-U |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 12:51 PM |
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Where are models available?
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Hi,
New to the discussion board.
I know that this site and Weather Underground provide model updates every three hours or so. Are there any sites that provide other model runs?
Thanks.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 12:55 PM |
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Re: Thoughts
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Dr. Lyons was just on and did not seem terribly impressed with the smaller coc and at this point he is saying ((((("at this point"))))) not seeing it develop into a Maj Cat Hurr. He even mentioned everyones hopes that it is POSSIBLE for it to split the uprights, S Fl and N Cuba
| chase 22 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 01:15 PM |
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Re: Thoughts
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Is it still even possible for it to "split the uprights"? I know that with weather anything is possible, but is that a scenario that the NHC is still looking at?
| evergladesangler |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 01:17 PM |
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Re: Thoughts
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The southern side of the COC is going to be back over land soon. The official track is too far north, imho.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 01:19 PM |
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Re: Thoughts
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Only repeating what Dr. Lyons stated. If he indicated that it was still POSSIBLE, then perhaps it is, we could only hope, looks as if at least a portion of the large outer eye will interact w/ Cuba also
| Sadie |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 01:23 PM |
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Re: Thoughts
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Jim Farrel, the chief met at WINK TV, Ft Myers, made two points this morning I think are worth underscoring here.
First, that unlike most hurricanes, this storm has the heaviest weather on her NORTH side.
Second, that because of the speed she will be carrying as she crosses the state, we should NOT expect the storm to weaken significantly as she moves inland.
| chase 22 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 01:24 PM |
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Re: Thoughts
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It looks to have moved due East until the last couple of frames where it looks to have resumed a more NE track. If I'm not mistaken, the models predicted such a movement.
| native |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 01:24 PM |
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Re: Thoughts
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NHC's been pretty right on so I'm gonna stick with them...I mean to shift the track for a field goal (b/w S.FL & N. Cuba) something awfully drastic would have to happen. I just don't see some weather hiccup "sneaking up" on them to throw a monkey wrench into their current track.
HF - Read your awesome post (as per usual) I don't like the possible merging of Wilma & Alpha for the extreme NE...those poor people do not need anymore rain. At this point though, with the temps...would it not turn into freezing rain or would it still be too much "tropical" moisture for that? Just curious (and concerned for them)
| native |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 01:26 PM |
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Re: Thoughts
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Um...that's incorrect. It's the south side of the "track" that'll have it worse.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 01:28 PM |
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Re: Thoughts
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More specifically, here is a link for your area
http://weather.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/iwszone3
| evergladesangler |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 01:30 PM |
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Re: Thoughts
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GFDL shifted from Lee/Collier border landfall at 00Z to Flamingo at 06Z. This is a huge jump. If GFS confirms a southward move then the track will be coming south as all the other models are trending that way.
| Sadie |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 01:32 PM |
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Re: Thoughts
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Quote:
Um...that's incorrect. It's the south side of the "track" that'll have it worse.
Can't help wondering who's right. Thoughts?
Edit: Sadie - I am not a met but I can tell you there is an area of deep disturbance that is expected to run north of Wilma - possibly crossing the Tampa Bay area heading towards Orlando - late tonight into Monday morning ahead of Wilma. Generally, the NE quadrant of any hurricane is where a larger risk for tornadic activity is. But, don't be fooled by that - tornados could pop up anywhere.
| efaulkSWFLA |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 01:33 PM |
|
|
Re: Thoughts
|
Quote:Quote:
Um...that's incorrect. It's the south side of the "track" that'll have it worse.
Can't help wondering who's right. Thoughts?
Im in Ft. Myers.. I heard Ferrell say the same.. North side wetter, windier.. South side bigger surge, obviously.. Who knows....
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 01:33 PM |
|
Re: Thoughts
|
"Maybe" he said that because of the 5:00 disco
MOST
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER
That's all I can think of. Otherwise, a west coast landfall should result in the south side being most intense.
| tenavilla |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 01:38 PM |
|
Re: Thoughts
|
Quote:
"Maybe" he said that because of the 5:00 disco
MOST
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER
That's all I can think of. Otherwise, a west coast landfall should result in the south side being most intense.
Everything I've seen/heard has been that this storm is unusual and the most rain will be on the north side. They also indicated that due to the cold front, the windfield will expand more on the north side this time.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 01:39 PM |
|
|
Re: Thoughts
|
The south side will be more intense at landfall becuase the speed of storm movement is added to the relative windspeed in the south and subtracted from the relative windspeed in the north. However, in terms of convection, and thus potentially embedded tornados and such, the north side is more intense from the pure convection standpoint.
We're argueing over "more intense" when some people are using intense relative to convection and others are using intense relative to windspeed, and then trying to compare them. Just doesn't work - two different elements of intense
| ShelleyMcD |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 01:43 PM |
|
|
Re: Thoughts
|
Sadie-
I know that the Tampa NBC and FOX stations were showing their VIPIR models, and both had Wilma as a significant rain event for the NORTH side of the system. I can only assume that this has something to do with the warm wet air of Wilma slamming into the cold front. There has been some disparity between locals and NHC as to whether that will mean severe thunderstorms/tornadic activity. Do any of you mets/mods have any insight? Not to imply that it's going to be worse for the folks on the north side of the storm than being in the strike zone, just a different type of event. (Boy, does that describe this whole season, or what?!?)
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 01:50 PM |
|
Re: Thoughts
|
Good Job Random...LOL! Your exactly right about that. North or south, it will be two different events.
| RedingtonBeachGuy |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 01:52 PM |
|
Re: Thoughts
|
Since you are talking about Tampa area, the Hurricane Statement for that area is very specific:
"NO WIND EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TODAY. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM OR JUST ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...SPREADING TOWARD THE COASTLINE MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...THEN DIMINISH TO A GUSTY NORTHERLY BREEZE MONDAY NIGHT AFTER A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE PENINSULA. "
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?wa...Local+Statement
My suggestion is for you to continue to monitor NOAA and the NHC's advice for your area.
| evergladesangler |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 01:52 PM |
|
Re: Thoughts
|
It looks like the northernmost area of deeper convection is moving away to the NE while the other heavy area south of that is staying with the circulation.
| RedingtonBeachGuy |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 01:56 PM |
|
Inner Core
|
Looks like Wilma is trying hard to regain her inner core/eyewall, as evidenced by this recent water vapor loop:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/storm/archive/javawv1.html
| ShelleyMcD |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 02:00 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Thoughts
|
Thanks, Red-- I'm following Tampa, but really in Sarasota. Sarasota's under voluntary evac (that may change with the newsconference @ 10 a.m), but either way, I'm on higher ground.
Trying to determine what Wilma will mean for those of not in the strike zone-- my house becomes an island for a bit after a 5+" downpour*- may have to park up at the local Publix if that is expected.
*Found that out in March '01.
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 02:01 PM |
|
|
Re: Inner Core
|
Attenuation is making continued updates of this graphic unlikley.
Although once she gets closer, power permitting, I'll definitely do another run at this from a FL-based radar.
I'll be out and about later today and may be gone at some point until later this evening, but I'll definitely be active over the span of Wilma's final approach.
| Addicted2Cane |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 02:02 PM |
|
Re: Inner Core
|
Any input on what can be expected if anything on the north side of the approaching front? As I understand it the front is located close to Cedar Key at this time. Will the backside of the front be protected? .... Thanks
| FireAng85 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 02:05 PM |
|
Re: Thoughts
|
Arch Kennedy on Orlando's Channel 9 was showing their predictor tool thing this morning and it shows something very intense coming in around Tampa and scooting northeast across the state. I wish I could remember the name of their model thing they use, but it is escaping me right now.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 02:07 PM |
|
|
|
Heavier Rain North of the center
|
From Miami NWS
...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS...
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES IS COLLIER COUNTY...PALM BEACH COUNTY AND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA.
| Terry Johnson |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 02:08 PM |
|
|
Re: Thoughts
|
Could it be VIPER??
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 02:08 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Thoughts
|
We can certainly hope for some interaction w/ Cuba on the Very Mountainous West side. I believe the elevations there, someone correct me if I am wrong is at least 11,000 feet
| ShelleyMcD |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 02:15 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Thoughts-Sarasota County
|
Even though we're well to the north of the NHC forecast track, Sarasota has gone to Level 1 Evac.
Schools are closed Monday, as are many city offices.
The official release will be posted at:
http://www.scgov.net/stormcenter
They're still in the middle of the conference.
| chase 22 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 02:23 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Thoughts-Sarasota County
|
The due East motion seems to have vanished. Following the direction it is currently moving, it would put landfall right inbetween Fort Myers/Naples. I just don't see anymore continuing evidence of a Southward shift of the models or the official track. As of right now, I would say that the NHC has it nailed.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
| Steeler Fan |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 02:26 PM |
|
Re: Thoughts-Sarasota County
|
Sarasota County has issued mandatory evacuations for Levels 1 and 2 areas. They are at a Level 1 full scale activation. I believe the press conference from 10:00 AM is also on-line at the storm center. Repeating the link below:
http://204.193.113.203/default.aspx?C6D2E1D5B5A9=8B9F9F
| Geoff |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 02:40 PM |
|
Eye Wall Question
|
When an intense hurricane partially makes land like Wilma did, and the inner eye wall loses some of its momentum and becomes obscured, do they generally undergo an eye wall replacement cycle when they get back over water. Anotherwords, do outer bands eventually become the next inner eye wall, or does the original inner eye wall typically just redevelop (given enough time back over warm water)?
I've been curious about this since Wima left the tip of the Yucutan, and I was hoping one of the experts might help shed some light on it (hopefully this is the right forum for this question). Thanks.
Also, you may have already seen this link, but I just stumbled onto it. You can animate all the Channels of the GOES-12 at the same time. Pretty interesting.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/realtime/grtmain.html
| ShelleyMcD |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 02:40 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Thoughts-Sarasota County
|
Sorry! I mispoke-
it's mandatory for mobile homes in Sarasota County
still voluntary for zones 1 & 2.
The Media Release is clearer than the news conference was.
| Tracey |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 02:45 PM |
|
Re: Inner Core
|
I understand there is a stationary front extending from near tampa across the state to about the cape as shown on the image below. However, can someone tell me why that front isn't shown on the wv images also shown below
front image: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/noaa/noaa.gif
WV image: http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_hem_loop-12.html
usually I can see the fronts, this one I can't. Anyone know why?????
| FireAng85 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 02:46 PM |
|
Re: Thoughts
|
No, they don't use Vipir.....It's similiar but not Vipir.
| FireAng85 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 02:48 PM |
|
Re: Thoughts
|
I think they call it Early Warning Future Track or something like that.
| Joshua |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 02:49 PM |
|
Re: Eye Wall Question
|
Quote:
When an intense hurricane partially makes land like Wilma did, and the inner eye wall loses some of its momentum and becomes obscured, do they generally undergo an eye wall replacement cycle when they get back over water. Anotherwords, do outer bands eventually become the next inner eye wall, or does the original inner eye wall typically just redevelop (given enough time back over warm water)?
I've been curious about this since Wima left the tip of the Yucutan, and I was hoping one of the experts might help shed some light on it (hopefully this is the right forum for this question). Thanks.
Also, you may have already seen this link, but I just stumbled onto it. You can animate all the Channels of the GOES-12 at the same time. Pretty interesting.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/realtime/grtmain.html
I don't think Wilma is currently undergoing an ERC right now, as it just finished the one earlier this morning from when it was over land. RIght now, it seems as if she is trying to recover from land. This may or may not happen before landfall in Florida.
1. She has picked up some speed this morning (from 2 MPH to 8 MPH, may even go up at 11AM)
2. She is currently over the loop current, but depending on the vertical sheer at the present, she may or may not pick up any strength from that. At the very least, she will remain a Cat 2 for the present time.
| evergladesangler |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 02:49 PM |
|
COC jogging east again
|
You can see it on this loop:
http://beta.accuweather.com/radar-large....oop&type=RS
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 02:50 PM |
|
|
|
Katrina evacuees moving again....
|
Katrina evacuees are moving again, this time in Boynton Beach, FL as another hurricane follows them.
Among those headed for shelters are 117 evacuees from August's devastating Hurricane Katrina, Dimke said. Their refuge at Palm Meadows, a horse-training center west of Boynton Beach, has some rooms that lack hurricane shutters, he said. Courtesy Sun-Sentinel.
| swimaway19 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 02:53 PM |
|
|
|
11 AM Advisory
|
11 AM Advisory just in. Here are the vitals:
At 10 am CDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located
near latitude 22.7 north... longitude 85.8 west or about 285
miles... 460 km... west-southwest of Key West Florida... or about
340 miles... 545 km... southwest of the southwestern coast of the
Florida Peninsula.
Wilma is moving toward the northeast near 8 mph...13 km/hr. A
gradual increase in forward speed is expected today and tonight.
Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Wilma is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Some strengthening is possible today or tonight.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 200 miles...325 km.
| efaulkSWFLA |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 02:57 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 11 AM Advisory
|
Does anyone know with regards to the last two updates how true the ne motion is? Is it more ene or really ne? just curious...
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 02:58 PM |
|
|
Re: 11 AM Advisory
|
Slight south shift at 11:00. Landfall just south of Marco Island 24 hours from now. Seems about right. maybe 20-30 miles either side would be best bet. However, with a diffuse storm, center point will not be as critical. Most models show heavy rain will be in the north becuase of interaction with the front. Heavier wind will be in the south. Either way, a messy day for Florida tomorrow.
| chase 22 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 03:00 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 11 AM Advisory
|
Quote:
Does anyone know with regards to the last two updates how true the ne motion is? Is it more ene or really ne? just curious...
Looks to be NE
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 03:01 PM |
|
Re: 11 AM Advisory
|
Judging by the vis loop she looks to be going ne. Wobbles here and there but over all a ne motion. She looks that way to me anyway.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
| efaulkSWFLA |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 03:02 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 11 AM Advisory
|
Quote:Quote:
Does anyone know with regards to the last two updates how true the ne motion is? Is it more ene or really ne? just curious...
Looks to be NE
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
thanks Matt!
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 03:03 PM |
|
|
|
Check out the dew points at 10 a.m.
|
Tornadoes for sure, check out the differences in the dew points from north to south:
48 Tallahassee
57 Gainesville
75 Orlando
78 West Palm Beach
81 Miami Beach
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 03:05 PM |
|
Re: 11 AM Advisory
|
By subtracting the distance between 5am and 11am she is moving more east than north by a tenth of a degree. She is faster than stationary but not much. Watching this system is like watching rocks grow. We know that they do but it sure is hard to see.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 03:09 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Check out the dew points at 10 a.m.
|
It really looks like that front is cutting off that northery severe weather at this point, you can watch the Sats/Radar and see the intensity dissapating, not totally of course
| Joshua |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 03:14 PM |
|
Re: Check out the dew points at 10 a.m.
|
The hurricane center seems to like to press in the 11AM discussion yet again that it is still possible a Category 3 storm is possible before landfall. I think this is definitely a possibility due to the inner core reorganization process. If the inner core spits out all of the dry air, and sucks up enough of the loop current energy (and trust me, the warm water is deep enough down there) it is very possible.
Can't stress enough to listen to local officials on preparedness, and all preparation should be rushed to completion as Wilma will start to effect southern Florida this evening.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 03:17 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Check out the dew points at 10 a.m.
|
Oh I hear you regarding the Loop Current, we have all seen the prior TC's go through there and explode quickly. We can look and hope for that drier air to get underneath and make that Maj Cat growth unfavorable.
| ParrishNStPeteFL |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 03:20 PM |
|
|
Re: 11 AM Advisory
|
Hiya, can you please tell me why the mets on TV are forecasting the worst of the storm being to the south and east of eye? When I look at visuals, I see lots and lots of purple to the northwest quad, headed straight for tampa bay?
I can see now that it is storm surge they are concetnrating on, I am wondering about tornadoes and such in my area.
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 03:21 PM |
|
|
Re: 11 AM Advisory
|
Does anyone know if a decision was made on Seminole County school closures for tomorrow? They were supposed to meet at 10:30 but I have not heard of the decision.
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 03:22 PM |
|
|
|
Current motion
|
The current motion is far more NE than ENE. The graphic is two hours old now, but that it has been moving whithin a degree of NE is pretty evident.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 03:22 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Check out the dew points at 10 a.m.
|
11am Recon - the 10NM eye has officially reformed enough to be considered an eye apparently. We now have 10NM and 60NM concentric eyewalls. Winds appear way down - only recording of 67KT FL winds for 964mb pressure - thats indicates TS force surface winds with Cat 3 pressure - wow. If this thing can keep its pressure down, I'd expect the winds to recover fairly quickly once the eye becomes less ragged.
--RC
419
URNT12 KNHC 231514
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/14:58:20Z
B. 22 deg 43 min N
085 deg 52 min W
C. 700 mb 2787 m
D. 60 kt
E. 312 deg 104 nm
F. 036 deg 067 kt
G. 306 deg 034 nm
H. 964 mb
I. 12 C/ 3047 m
J. 14 C/ 3045 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. OPEN NW
M. CO10-60
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 2124A WILMA OB 05
MAX FL WIND 67 KT NW QUAD 14:49:00 Z
MAX WIND BAND 60NM DIAMETER WITH SMALLER EYEWALL FORMING WITHIN.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 03:24 PM |
|
|
Re: 11 AM Advisory
|
I never knew that rocks grew~I learn something new here everyday.
I don't think the cold front has quite made it here yet, as it is muggy and humid outside. My husband and I were watching BayNews9 / ABC Action News this morning and both forecasters said that the cold front will be coming in later this afternoon or tonight. Also, ABC showed their Titan model and Wayne Shattuck said that the entire viewing area could see upwards of 2-4" of rain and 5-8" in some isolated areas. Supposed to have TS force winds here later on as Wilma approaches...which has as much to do with the hurricane as it does with the cold front moving in...and since last night Polk County is under an "Inland TS Wind Watch (now warning).
I was watching CNN this morning and they were interviewing Ed Rappaport at the NHC. He said that the storm surge wil be worse on the south side of the storm, and of course so will the wind effects, but he said that the areas NORTH of whereever it hits will see some heavy weather also due to the cold front and Wilma's expanding winds.
Then, of course, you had CNN's weather chick showing the expected rain rates. She said that some areas could see 12" of rain..."and that isn't too bad."
Excuse me? A foot of rain isn't "too bad"?
By this time tomorrow, we will know exactly what to expect.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 03:25 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Check out the dew points at 10 a.m.
|
11am discussion out. Officially she's being held at a 85KT surface wind Cat 2 storm.
| Joshua |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 03:26 PM |
|
Re: Check out the dew points at 10 a.m.
|
Cloud tops look as if they are getting much more symmetrical, and they are wrapping nicely around the center. That loop current is doing a nice job at helping it to reintensify with the weak vertical shear aloft for the first 12-18 hours.
Here are a few numbers people on this board may want to utilize to ask about the storm, evacuations, school closings, etc:
Broward County - 954-831-4000
Miami-Dade County - Residents: 311 or Outside: 305-468-5900
Monroe - 800-955-5504
Collier - 239-774-8000
Lee - Residents: 211 or Outside: 239-433-3900
Any more?
Please utilize these numbers if you have ANY questions that you are unsure about. Tax payers (e.g. you) pay a lot for these lines to be up and running, so take advantage!
| willw |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 03:28 PM |
|
Re: Check out the dew points at 10 a.m.
|
and for the record tampa,bradenton and most of sarasota is "out of the cone" . Looks like the NHC was right about this one. They are doing a better job then they used to.
| abyrd |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 03:31 PM |
|
Close the office tomorrow?
|
Here's a question. I'm in charge of making the decision to close the office in downtown Orlando tomorrow. I'm torn as it looks like we'll get mimimal or slightly more than minimal winds in the morning in Orlando.
Obviously a day off would be nice, but I don't want to make the wrong call. Are other places closing tomorrow in Orlando? Any word on schools?
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 03:33 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 11 AM Advisory
|
The merging of Wilma and the cold front is one part of it. Wilma's large wind field is also a part of it...and that is forecasted to expand as it meets up with the cold front which should just be near Tampa as Wilma makes landfall.
The last I heard on TV was that the hurricane force winds expanded out almost near to 70 miles; the TS winds expanded out almost 200. The good news is that the further out the Hurricane force winds are, the weaker the storm. If the eye tightens up again, it will be reintensifying. Which they are saying that's what it is supposed to do, but who knows at this point.
BayNews9 does a good job of explaining why we are supposed to get the windy and wet weather in the Tampa Bay viewing area. Maybe he can explain it better than I can.
| marknccbch |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 03:33 PM |
|
Re: shelter info
|
Titusville prepares for Wilma
In preparation for the arrival of Hurricane Wilma, the Titusville Emergency Operations Center would like to make a few announcements.
1. The Emergency Operation Center will be upgrading from a monitoring level to a level two activation. A level two activation is a partial activation of the Cities Emergency Operations Center - This is limited agency activation. All primary, or lead, Emergency Support Functions are notified. Office of Emergency Management personnel and necessary Emergency Support Functions will staff the Cities Emergency Operations Center, as of 11:00 AM Sunday.
2. Hotline- The established Hurricane HOTLINE for the City of Titusville EOC will be 321-264-4024. This line will start being staffed as of 11:00 AM Sunday.
3. Shelters - There will be three shelters opening in Titusville on Sunday at 10 am.
a. Red Cross Shelters
i. Imperial Estates Elementary School, 5525 Kathy Drive, South Titusville
b. Special Needs Shelters (Assisted Care AC/Enhanced Care EC)
i. Oak Park Elementary-AC, 3395 Dairy Road, Titusville
ii. Parrish Medical Center-EC, 951 N Washington Ave, Titusville
4. Mandatory Evacuation - The Brevard County Board of County Commissioners has declared a mandatory evacuation, effective at 10 a.m. Sunday of all mobile homes and manufactured housing in the county. We do not anticipate an evacuation of the barrier islands.
5. Closings - Brevard County public schools, the Brevard Campus of the University of Central Florida, Brevard Community College, all county government offices and YMCA will be closed Monday, October 24, based on current wind and weather forecasts.
Palm Bay under state of emergency
The City of Palm Bay is under a local State of Emergency as signed and declared by Mayor John Mazziotti. The threat of Hurricane Wilma is being monitored and residents should be prepared to take necessary precautions for probable impacts from this storm.
LOCAL IMPACTS:
The forecast track continues to push Hurricane Wilma towards the West Coast of Florida and exiting the East Coast . The City of Palm Bay is currently under a Hurricane Watch that covers the entire East Coast of Florida from Titusville south. Tropical storm force winds and some hurricane force wind gusts could be felt in Palm Bay and surrounding areas as early as Monday morning.
MANDATORY EVACUATION:
Beginning at 10 a.m. Sunday, residents living in manufactured and mobile homes are under a mandatory evacuation order by Brevard County Palm Bay Police will be enforcing this order to affected residents in the City.
CITY OFFICES CLOSED TO PUBLIC
All City offices will be closed to the public on Monday and all recreational programs cancelled. All scheduled board meetings and council meetings are cancelled.
EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER/CITY EMPLOYEES
Palm Bay’s Emergency Operations Center will be under partial activation beginning Monday morning at 5 a.m.. All non-essential City employees are NOT to report to work on Monday. All Code-1 City employees are to report in as designated by their supervisors. City employees may contact 321-409-6363 for continuous updates.
Brevard public schools cancel Monday classes
The Brevard County school district decided today to cancel Monday classes for all public schools.
Here is the release from the school system:
Viera - Based on the latest forecast of Hurricane Wilma currently moving in the Gulf of Mexico and expecting to make landfall in South Florida, Brevard Public Schools will be closed on Monday, October 24th. All activities associated with the public schools, including after school care programs and athletic activities, are canceled as well.
The following schools will be opened at 10 a.m. on Sunday, October 23rd for sheltering:
General Population Shelters:
Bayside High School, 1901 DeGroodt, Palm Bay
Eau Gallie High School, 1400 Commodore Blvd, Melbourne
Manatee Elementary School, 3425 Solerno Blvd, Viera
Imperial Estates Elementary School, 5525 Kathy Drive, Titusville
South Mainland Community Center, 3700 Allen Avenue, Micco
The district’s Public Information Hotline (321) 633-1000, ext. 797 will be updated as well as the Web site.
Latest from Brevard County Emergency Management
Saturday, 4 p.m.
Mandatory Evacuation
The Brevard County Board of County Commissioners has declared a mandatory evacuation, effective at 10 a.m. Sunday, October 23, of all mobile homes and manufactured housing in the county. We do not anticipate an evacuation of the barrier islands.
Closings
Brevard County public schools, the Brevard Campus of the University of Central Florida, Brevard Community College, all county government offices and YMCA will be closed Monday, October 24, based on current wind and weather forecasts.
Shelters
Shelters will open at 10 a.m. on Sunday, October 23. Residents are reminded not to arrive at any shelter prior to 10 a.m.
General population shelters are as follows:
Imperial Estates Elementary School, 5525 Kathy Drive, Titusville
Manatee Elementary School, 3425 Solerno Blvd, Viera
Eau Gallie High School, 1400 Commodore Blvd, Melbourne
Bayside High School, 1901 DeGroodt, Palm Bay
South Mainland Community Center, 3700 Allen Avenue, Micco
Residents who evacuate to shelters are reminded to bring any needed medications and/or medical equipment, bedding, personal hygiene items, and three days worth of food with them.
For updated information in Brevard County, call 211.
Saturday, 11 a.m.
Special Needs
People living in manufactured or mobile homes who are registered with Brevard County’s Special Needs program, will be notified today that special needs shelters will open at 10 a.m. on Sunday and that normal transportation methods will be put in place, beginning at 9 a.m. on Sunday.
Those who have their own transportation are cautioned not to arrive before 10 a.m. when the special needs shelters open.
Residents who evacuate to special needs shelters are reminded to bring any needed medications and/or medical equipment, bedding, personal hygiene items, and three days worth of food with them.
To join the Special Needs Registry, call (321) 637-4088 or 637-6661.
General Population
Based on the current forecast, we are planning to open shelters for residents of mobile homes and manufactured housing. We anticipate evacuation of mobile homes and manufactured housing areas Sunday, and a decision on the exact location of shelters will be made later today.
We do not anticipate an evacuation of the barrier islands.
Residents who evacuate to shelters are reminded to bring any needed medications and/or medical equipment, bedding, personal hygiene items, and three days worth of food with them.
For updated information in Brevard County, call 211.
What's canceled in Brevard
Uncertainty about the weather this weekend prompted organizers and officials to call off a number of events. Among the events called off by Friday night were:
ComeUnity’s SoulFest at Provost Park likely will be rescheduled in early 2006.
Paws in the Park has been rescheduled for Nov. 19. Call 255-4400 or 636-3343, ext. 204 for details.
Titusville Fire and Emergency Services has canceled a Sunday memorial service for fallen firefighters. A rescheduled date has not been decided. The event will honor the 117 U.S. firefighters who lost their lives in the line of duty in 2004.
Palm Bay’s 6th annual Night Out was canceled. The event, planned for tonight, is scheduled to return in 2006.
Classes at Keiser College will be closed Monday in Orlando and Melbourne. The Daytona Beach campus is scheduled to open as usual.
A golf tournament today at Aquarina in Melbourne Beach and dog wash Sunday to benefit the Central Brevard Humane Society have been postponed. The tournament was rescheduled for Nov. 5; the dog wash for Nov. 20. For information, call 636-3343.
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To notify the public of a canceled weekend event, please contact Florida Today’s community desk at Community@flatoday.net or leave a message at 242-3567.
Indian River County shelters
SEBASTIAN - Indian River County's emergency services expects to open five of its primary shelters during Hurricane Wilma, but officials Friday morning couldn't say when they would open.
Shelters in schools for this storm will be:
Liberty Magnet, 8955 85th St., Sebastian-special needs
Sebastian River Middle, 9400 County Road 512, Sebastian
Fellsmere Elementary, 50 N. Cypress St., Fellsmere
Oslo Middle, 480 20th Ave. SW, Vero Beach
Freshman Learning Center, 1507 19th St., Vero Beach.
| FireAng85 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 03:33 PM |
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Re: Close the office tomorrow?
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Still no word from Lake or Orange County as far as school closings or anything else for that matter. I'm waiting to see here in Lake county myself.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 03:34 PM |
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Re: Close the office tomorrow?
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Valencia Community College is closed, and I anticipate that Orlando and Osceola Schools will close too.. Not sure about Seminal. Brevard county schools as well as Polk county are closed.
Surely the safety of your employees should be the most important concern. Orange County is under a Inland Hurricane Warning. What do you think ?
| Joshua |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 03:34 PM |
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Re: Close the office tomorrow?
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Quote:
Here's a question. I'm in charge of making the decision to close the office in downtown Orlando tomorrow. I'm torn as it looks like we'll get mimimal or slightly more than minimal winds in the morning in Orlando.
Obviously a day off would be nice, but I don't want to make the wrong call. Are other places closing tomorrow in Orlando? Any word on schools?
The NWS is forecasting NE winds of 45-55MPH with higher gusts on Monday. This may be a bit dangerous for people to drive out in, but your best bet would be to call the Orange County EOC hotline. Here is the number:
311 if you're a resident, unknown otherwise.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 03:36 PM |
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Re: Check out the dew points at 10 a.m.
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I call it the cone of stupidity. Because, we know that Charley changed course at the last minute it seems. Also, I want to remind people that there are 70 miles in one degree of longitude and that you should do the math for your area if you know your lattitude and longitude. Remember that hurricanes do not stop at traffic lights nor follow construction curves around cities. So if your concept of distance from one point to another is based on car miles, then your arithmetic may mislead you.The storm has not finished developing yet and the final word from the NHC has not been said. There is still approximately 18 hours to go before the storm will be near Florida, unless she picks up speed greater than 8 miles per hour. I believe the NHC guidance is the best we have, and I also believe that the only reason some local meterologists are not working there is because the government isn't hiring right now. But, we have fine people guiding us and you can tell by the comments and the researchable knowledge that they are telling us the best information we can get.
| R-U-Q-R-U |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 03:37 PM |
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Accuweather Track
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I notice the 11:22 AM track on the AccuWeather site is north of NHC and way north of most models. How good are they?
| age234 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 03:37 PM |
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Re: Close the office tomorrow?
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I'm still waiting on Full Sail's (winter park) descision, which they're supposed to make by noon. I personally think they should close down, but that's just me.
Here's AccuWeather's wind forecast for Orlando tomorrow:
Winds: NW at 57 mph
Wind Gusts: 127 mph (cat 3 strength!)
And we have a hurricane warning, so, I don't know.
As for AccuWeather's hurricane track, Joe Bastardi was on the Glenn Beck Program last week, and he said he doesn't necessarily follow the NHC, because he likes to look at historical analogs before going to the computer models. I don't know if that's smart or not, but that's what he does (and may explain why his predicted path was going south of Miami a few days ago).
| Joshua |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 03:37 PM |
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Re: Close the office tomorrow?
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Recon meteorologists have found a 60NM outer eyewall, and they see an inner eyewall forming. This means the storm is poised to strengthen. The inner eyewall is trying to form 10NM wide, and it is currently open to the NW. We'll see if it closes before the 2 or 5PM advisories and strengthens.
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 03:39 PM |
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Re: Close the office tomorrow?
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Conditions here is southwestern Seminole county: Humidy = 94%, Temperature = 77 F. Presure = 1012.
| Joshua |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 03:39 PM |
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Re: Close the office tomorrow?
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Quote:
I'm still waiting on Full Sail's (winter park) descision, which they're supposed to make by noon. I personally think they should close down, but that's just me.
Here's AccuWeather's wind forecast for Orlando tomorrow:
Winds: NW at 57 mph
Wind Gusts: 127 mph (cat 3 strength!)
And we have a hurricane warning, so, I don't know.
Accuweather is seriously hyped, and I would really try to stay away from making decisions based on their site. Go to http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ for your best information.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 03:43 PM |
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Re: Accuweather Track
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Accuweather is pretty good. I think they pretty much nailed Frances and Jeanne last year, and even though Katrina didn't actually make landfall in N.O., JB was right on in his earlier predictions that Katrina would be a deadly storm for N.O.
| dave foster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 03:45 PM |
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Re: Accuweather Track
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Just look at the trend of the airflow from Wilma and you will see that it is gradually edging further north. That suggests to me that Wilma will do the same over the next 24 hours.
| StPeteBill |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 03:49 PM |
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Re: Accuweather Track
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Ok, will never ask this question again but what can we honestly expect to see in St Pete/Tampa area?
| ParrishNStPeteFL |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 03:51 PM |
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Re: Accuweather Track
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Ditto!! Please enlighten us
| mojorox |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 03:52 PM |
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Re: Close the office tomorrow?
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Well they just canceled the inland hurricane warning for Orange county(NWS melbourne). Now it is just an inland TS warning...
| chase 22 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 03:53 PM |
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Re: Accuweather Track
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Quote:
Ok, will never ask this question again but what can we honestly expect to see in St Pete/Tampa area?
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw
That is THE best source of info for our area. unlike most tv mets who usually put their opinions into their "official" forcast, this is original cold, hard facts. It will tell you exactly wat to expect in your city. Just click in the approximate area of where you live in your county and it will give you the info for your city. Hope that helps.
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 03:54 PM |
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Lake County Schools
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This statement was issued on the School Board Website
Lake County Schools is closely monitoring Hurricane Wilma's projected course. They will be meeting this morning to decide whether to close schools on Monday, Oct. 24.
We will post the decision on this website sometime after noon today.
Check their site later today for updates there
www.lake.k12.fl.us
Anyone heard anything from Lake-Sumter Community College, I see Valencia is closed.
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 03:54 PM |
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Re: Accuweather Track
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TO try and steer away from the Accuweather flame war potential, I'll disclaim the folowing.
JB called almost every storm in the GOM this year a potential NO event. To give him credit for Katrina (when the impact wasn't NO) is like giving a stopped clock credit for being right twice a day.
I'm not saying the man is not intelligent. I will say, however, that the NHC's guidance has a far better track record than that from the folks at Accuweather. This is my personal opinion and no way reflects the views of the CFHC. In short, go with the NHC and National Weather Service. If they issue warnings, you would do well to heed those warnings.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 03:54 PM |
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Re: Check out the dew points at 10 a.m.
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Quote:
Tornadoes for sure, check out the differences in the dew points from north to south:
48 Tallahassee
57 Gainesville
75 Orlando
78 West Palm Beach
81 Miami Beach
The frontogenic signature is actually only average (not that you were asking) but you most certainly do have a disproportionately intense llv thermodynamic gradient evolving in lieu of the fropa (mid/upper Fl Penn)
This is intriguing....The mid-levels seem to want to support a frontal position somewhat N of Gainesville, but that's not unusual because all cfronts will tend to wedge somewhat underneath their own mid-lvl support. To mention, some of those cooler dp poolings are probably because SE Georgia has some topography lending to "cool air damming" - a phenomenon more associated with the upper East Coast but taking place in SE Georgia and the Carolina coastal plains nonetheless. This air was given special impetus in moving S because of departing gale center situated over ACK, MA this morning; now racing into the Gulf of Maine. May seem like a stretch to say that but the former process was actually set into motion earlier yesterday evening (got keep the temporal relationship in mind here..)
...Anyway, thus there is a frontal slope in the area with a potent circulation (.a.ka Wilma) riding up the boundary from SW to NE. This has super-intense short duration rainfall event for the NW side written all over it... Typically, the NW quadrant of a hurricane is the rain side anyway, and the SE wind, for systems moving NE... (W/E for systems moving N..etc). It looks as though you have some compounding factors that would suggest an extreme flood potential for areas along and actually just N of the llv frontal position, as Wilma is moving (most likely) right across the Lake Ok. area and exiting S of Cape C. Those areas will have elevated convective elements of tropical origin, nested amid a phenomenal isentropic lift scenario... We could be talking blinding rain - even more intense than typical for these scenarios. Not sure what the soil moisture is like in those areas NW of Wilma's track but it may not matter if much fall rates. The saving grace is that she's accelerating in keeping with strong U/A impulse tumbling down into the Ohio Valley... This closed area has furthering complications up the East Coast.
...This scenario has been covered by HankFrank several times of the last few days but I can't help my self... Sufficed to say, Eastern New England is not out of the woods... In fact, closer inspection of all the models, which clearly have converged on a powerful hybrid/Nor'easter for our area up here (potentially damaging one), shows that she's technically still warm core while she's passing near 70W/42N (Cape Cod or just off-shore there). Meanwhile, there is U/A warm frontogenisis signature materializing S of our area, classic transitioning signal. The thing is, as is typical for systems of this nature, she will be moving along so quickly by the time she's nearing she's likely to exceed her transition rates so it does seem she'll have vestiges of a warm inner core... This is actually a blessing for those who would rather not experience a dramatic short-lead warning wind event, because that means that her pgf has not been expanded; her baroclinic acquistion hasn't completed. I don't see how she can complete the transition fast enough to keep up with her very quick translational speed given model solutions such as the GFDL. It shows a extratropical cyclogensis vis-a vis the U/A low, with a weakening Wilma sling-shotting around the eastern flanks at ludicrous speed. In other words, she's likely a still a distinct entity fighting off the morphology, but finally conceding well NE.
...However, the other extreme, the 00z NOGAPs, it offers an intriguing solution, which I cannot ignore. Typically, the NOGAPs has a longitudinal bias, particularly N of 30 degree that is true... It is thus intriguing to me that it indeed has the less depthy H500mb pattern Monday/Tuesday concerning the Ohio Valley trough...yet, it is more successful in apparently morphing Wilma with Mid-Atlantic in situ cyclogenisis... Almost wonder if that's some kind of exotic confidence. Should the more amplified H500 GFS type solutions pan out, it is possible that Wilma would start racing N and then actually take on more NOGAPian sfc soltuions; dramatic hook, morph in (alla NOGAPS solution) into a real stemwinder...
Observing the wv imagery provided at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html ....shows a very powerful secondary potential vorticity field, when extrapolating the intense U/A impulse that is rotating through the SW Lakes...toward the SE.. It is not entirely certain how effectual this arrangement will be at 54 hours in actually inducing strong Mid Atlantic cyclogenisis... but this could be scary. Since the lions share the baroclinicity was not displaced seaward by the current attenuating gale center, there is a very large cyclogenisis potential lingering up and down the entire area of New England to N Florida really... The trigger vorticity advection does not have to be that impressive with such dynamic, and the U/A impulse will have decent mid lvl jet nosing into the lower Del Marva, as steering feild ENE of the 70W lon line will probably situate more S to N than currently depicted (going on the assumption that the models are typically underdone with heights in the western Atlantic). Yet, here we have a strong gyre with very cold mid-llv heights tumbling SE, with Wilma situated alarmingly close by in the Gulf...?
Bottom line...these elements are quite forboding. In a vague way, kind of reminds me of the 1991 Gracy - Perfect Storm scenario, although there isn't enough block NE (I don't think?) to cause a lingering hyper system.
It's gonna be a fun ride... I'm almost thinking about hitting the Cape with a some kind of video camera and being really irresponsible and stupid... Anyway, the 12z guidance is crankin' out as I type... Be interesting to see if the deeper solution along the New England coast theory pans out... Right now, as is, and based on 00z and 06z guidance average across all clusters, it looks like a moderate impact Nor'easter with room for deep considerations... Just interested in if the 12z guidance avails of those potentials and bores a hole in the atmosphere near my lat/lon...
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 03:55 PM |
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Re: Accuweather Track
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Here is a specific link to your area forecast
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.ph...5&map.y=147
| Joshua |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 03:57 PM |
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Re: Accuweather Track
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Quote:
Ditto!! Please enlighten us
Most likely the type of conditions you would see during a strong tropical storm. Depending on where you are, you can see something around 45-55 mph with custs higher. Nothing like hurricane sustained winds, but it would be best to clean up outside
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 03:57 PM |
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Re: Accuweather Track
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Not sure who is in charge of the Accuweather forecast; but that does not even agree with JB's. I did get a chuckle at the 68G110 for my location. They have gone to whacked out on this one.
| Genesis |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 03:57 PM |
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|
Here it comes!
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Looking at the WV imagery you see the trough that will be steering Wilma quite clearly, along with the high building in behind it.
The cold front that was over Tampa has reversed and is now a warm front buckling northward. This front's motion, and the speed with which the axis tilts more N-S will determine the eventual path up the coast.
It certainly appears that the impact in Florida of the actual center will be more to the south than I had expected - however, this does not mean that you're "clear" north of there by any means. The weather is likely to be downright NASTY anywhere near and south of the frontal boundary, and with that boundary now moving northward, the possibility exists for the turn more poleward will occur sooner rather than later.
In any event it looks like my view is a bust, although the fat lady has not yet sung on this. The slower Wilma moves, given the retrogression of that front, the more northward she will turn.
I would not breathe a "sigh of relief" until this storm is past. The acceleration that was prognosticated was predicated on a diving southward frontal boundary draped mostly E-W. We now have, at least over Florida, a regressing northward-moving one, which may dissolve, and the gradient that's behind it has a much more poleward tilt to it. This may slow forward motion some, which is both good and bad - good, in that it will prevent as much amplification from forward motion to windspeed, and bad, in that it may draw the storm a bit further north.
Marco Island looks to be "ground zero" from the NHC's point of view. This is horiffically bad for the Keys, given the windfield of this storm, in that it will essentially "rake" them on the dirty side, especially if the track deviates a bit further south. If further strengthening does occur, there will liklely be widespread trouble there.
Looks like I'm going to eat my crow on a somewhat-more-northward impact point, but that's ok. I just hope that those further north don't see the interaction that will kick off too many tornadoes. In some ways the retrogression of that front may be a blessing in this regard, in that it may take some of the energy out of what would otherwise be a bad tornado event. Bottom line is that the N-S tilt I expected to develop didn't on time - which augers for more eastward than poleward motion.
But, it does look like its going to happen - just another day late (the story of our lives on this storm - everything feature-wise always seems to show up later than expected!)
This leaves me a bit more concerned about the possibility of Wilma being left behind by this first front and ending up getting picked up by the second low and its trough now over Ohio. That could be very bad for the NE US States - last night it looked to me like this was unlikely, but this morning, with the front inverting and the possibility of that boundary dissolving, to be replaced by the one behind it, I'm getting more concerned about that again.....
Finally, I've heard little about damage assessment in Cozumel and Cancun thus far - hope they're ok down there......
| FireAng85 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 03:58 PM |
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Re: Lake County Schools
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Thanks for the info Jamiewx. I was on the school board site earlier this morning and there was no information there.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 03:59 PM |
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NHC right on
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Looks like so far the NHC is right on.No surprises yet.She is looking better and better on satilite,the winds should catch up with the pressure this afternoon.People in Tampa should be happy now,not upset.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 04:03 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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I am beginning to think this could be a far more damaging event in the NE then in Florida when everything is said and done. To me, the biggest question is how much flooding rain is this going to drop on already saturated areas. I hope folks in New England are aware of what the could get. Not a certainty, but there won't be a lot of time to respond and prepare if they wait for it to become certain.
| DJINFLA |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 04:03 PM |
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Re: shelter info
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Indian River County info:
(this is all taken directly from an email from Nathan McCollum, the county EOC guy)
Protective Actions for Indian River County are as follows:
Evacuations-All mobile homes and manufactured homes are under a mandatory evacuation as of 3:00pm today.
Shelters-The public shelters will open at 5:00pm, today. The shelters are Fellsmere Elementary School, Sebastian River Middle School, Freshman Learning Center, and the Oslo Middle School. The shelters will remain open to anyone until the storm is over.
Special Needs-The Special Needs Shelter which is Liberty Magnet School will be opening at 3:00pm today. Anyone who has registered for the special needs shelter can go after anytime after 3:00pm.
Voluntary Evacuations-Residents who are susceptible to severe beach erosion along the coast should consider evacuating if their is the possibility of undermining. Also, people who live along the Indian River Lagoon that are susceptible to flooding should consider leaving the area as the rainfall totals are unknown. Anyone living in low lying areas can use shelters or simply stay in an area that does not flood.
Bridges-All barrier island bridges will close at 6:00am, Monday.
All government buildings, including schools, are closed on Monday.
A general press conference will be held in the County Commission Chambers at 1:00pm today.
The next advisory will be this afternoon.
On the lighter side of Wilma prep. . .the county has temporarily removed some traffic lights (where there are 2+ ights for the same road). Guess their thinking is from the "Lessons Learned Department" after Frances and Jeanne. . .it takes too long and costs too much to replace them. Even more amusing, I've noticed that most porta-potties are laying down. Perhaps the construction companies? The porta-potty fairy? I don't know. I woke this morning and noticed that the 10 or so of them on my street were on their sides. Yes, there's that many on my street, we're not that backwards here in Sebastian! Just a lot of home growth going on lately.
| sylk |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 04:03 PM |
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Re: Close the office tomorrow?
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New poster here .. this is for Orange county
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1150 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
...HURRICANE WILMA CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD FLORIDA...
...NEW INFORMATION...
THE INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR ORANGE COUNTY HAS BEEN REPLACED BY
AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
| pincty |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 04:05 PM |
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Re: Accuweather Track
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I agree with you tpratch.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 04:11 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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wow...if you read my last post...i agree with you here... seems like we come to the same conlusion perhaps with difference means.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 04:16 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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GFS is in. Looks like a little north of Lake Okeechobee.. NAM is interesting too, seems to have moved considerably north and is now slightly north of NHC track.
| dave foster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 04:16 PM |
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Re: Accuweather Track
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If that question was directed at me then I'm sorry, I cannot help you. It was purely based upon my own personal observations of the current conditions, not on predictive computer models nor anyone else's opinions. I am not a met , neither am I a professional weather forecaster, so it is the responsibility of the individuals themselves to watch, listen to and heed expert bodies such as the NHC. Weather prediction is not a precise science and never will be, so it is to be expected that variation will always be present within any particular set of forecasts. Choose the one that you have the most faith in and stick to it.
And good luck to you all, I'll be thinking of you.
| KC |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 04:17 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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For those of you in SW Florida, ABC-7 is broadcasting until 1pm if you are looking for local reports. It's still sunny and humid.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 04:19 PM |
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Re: Accuweather Track
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Morning from a sleepyhead. Didn't check anything yet but the wv images, will be brunching while I catch up. Should have counted on Weird Wilma to do the unexpected. Looks like she mixed in the dry air, left the outer eyewall as a wind maximum, and is definitely trying to rebuild the inner eyewall (looks like you were right bloodstar), but without too much success. Dry air still holding her in check. Maybe she's going for the 'dreaded pinhole eye' again.
Notice how the strong convection in the NE band tends to keep reforming over the warmer waters of the loop current.
| k___g |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 04:20 PM |
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Re: Close the office tomorrow?
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It has been announced that Orange County schools will be closed on Monday.
| age234 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 04:20 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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For those interested, Full Sail canceled classes from Monday at 9am to Tuesday at 9am. Sucks for people who will be driving home from their 5-9am classes tomorrow morning when she hits...
| Sadie |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 04:20 PM |
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Re: NHC right on
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I've got to say that Skeetobite's Landfall Zoom map based on NHC Disco #33 is priceless. Shows the windfields in fantastic detail!
Thank you Skeet!
| FireAng85 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 04:20 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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That's weird. I was just watching WFTV in Orlando and he said that all the models are now south of Okeechobee.
| EaglezFan42 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 04:22 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Quote:
GFS is in. Looks like a little north of Lake Okeechobee.. NAM is interesting too, seems to have moved considerably north and is now slightly north of NHC track.
can u include a link please? Thanks
| StPeteBill |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 04:25 PM |
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Re: NHC right on
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Quote:
Looks like so far the NHC is right on.No surprises yet.She is looking better and better on satilite,the winds should catch up with the pressure this afternoon.People in Tampa should be happy now,not upset.
I sure am happy bob, there is probally only one person who is upset.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 04:26 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Recon found 89 kt FL winds in the SE quadrant after the last vortex messag, so it is probably still in the neighborhood of 80-85 kts at the surface. This is a new plane into the storm, so whether an inner eyewall was actually forming or whether they were just seeing the remnants of the old inner eyewall is not clear. My guess is that they were seeing the same feature as the last plane, but they decided to call it as a "forming" eyewall rather than a degrading eyewall.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 04:27 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Quote:
GFS is in. Looks like a little north of Lake Okeechobee.. NAM is interesting too, seems to have moved considerably north and is now slightly north of NHC track.
yeah...that's entirely reasonable...it won't travel n of the position of the cold/stationary boundary unless it retreats, which is obviously dependent on where it's u/a support aligns...In this case, with such a powerful entity pressing SEward from the NW (in time) the NW displacement of this boundary would seem less likely (no certainties..of course), but hurrcanes do tend to bow boundaries back NW.
but 50 miles either side of the former line is going to reasonable, and unfortunately, not very concise for those who feel they need to know now.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 04:29 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Link to 12z GFS http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/index_slp_l_loop.shtml
Link to 12 Z NAM http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/index_500_l_loop.shtml
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 04:34 PM |
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Re: Accuweather Track
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Totally agree...JB always has an interesting insight, but then he piles on the National-Enquirer-type rhetoric. I think it's because it's the type of presentation Accuweather wanted, to draw in $$, and he was willing to sell out to that extent and oblige. The public seems to have a very short memory and just want to be entertained, which he does. I think he's ok with it. I like to think of him as the anti-Max-Mayfield!
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 04:38 PM |
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Re: Accuweather Track
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The 15:45 UTC IR picture shows more convection banding to the south. Is this a sign of some strengthening?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
| Orlandoman |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 04:41 PM |
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Re: Accuweather Track
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This is my second post for this topic......Can Wilma and Alpha meet somewhere near the cape.......????
| engicedave |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 04:42 PM |
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Re: Accuweather Track
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Very unlikely
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 04:42 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Quote:
My guess is that they were seeing the same feature as the last plane, but they decided to call it as a "forming" eyewall rather than a degrading eyewall.
No, T12, take a look at 1515Z. The two original spiral bands are now reaching right into the center. Compare that with the 0815Z. The larger eyewall that was forming there did not progress. What you would have seen this morning was those inner eyewall bands moving outward and being absorbed into the outer eyewall with a slowly-decreasing radius. Instead, the dry air was mixed in, and it looks like she is going for le petite eye if she can do it.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 04:45 PM |
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Re: Accuweather Track
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It is a possibility that Alpha and Wilma met up and merge. Most likely, it would somewhere from off the North Carolina/Virginia coast up to off the coast of New England. If it does happen, it will not happen south of North Carolina.
| VolusiaMike |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 04:46 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Volusia County Schools will be closed on Monday.
Looks like the front has stalled
| funky |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 04:52 PM |
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Re: NHC right on
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Quote:
Looks like so far the NHC is right on.No surprises yet.She is looking better and better on satilite,the winds should catch up with the pressure this afternoon.People in Tampa should be happy now,not upset.
i think all of us up here in sarasota through tampa are breathing a sigh of relief!!!!
just for precaution my wife and i brought in all of the plants, furniture, everything off the pool deck you name it, can never be too prepared!! i hope what i'm seeing with wilma and her convective banding around 3/4 of the CoC doesn't keep up. for the people down south's sake. good luck to all of you, i don't think you realize how hard this thing is going to hit.
| chase 22 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 04:53 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Still no word from Pinellas Cty Schools or the EOC it's like they' re not there...I know they are, but you would think that they would say something to let the general public know whats going on
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 04:56 PM |
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Re: Accuweather Track
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Quote:
It is a possibility that Alpha and Wilma met up and merge. Most likely, it would somewhere from off the North Carolina/Virginia coast up to off the coast of New England. If it does happen, it will not happen south of North Carolina.
It appears as ....not atypical, the tall mountains of Hispanola have shredded Alpha's llv circulation field to bits... Actually, according to NHC, it was tiny anyway - but i argue much more impressive in the mid lvls perhaps...This is also currently still having a reasonably good signature on IR, demonstrating more than mere appeal to twist the cloud pattern as whatever is left of Alpha currently nears the NW side of the Island... Basically, would not be surprised if some regeneration of the llv wind field evolvs.. water is warm in that area (n side of the Islands)... The exact interaction with Wilma will be very complex because it hasn't been decided how Wilma will interacted with Coastal cyclogenisis. Throwing Alpha in the Fray: 1 of 2 most likely scenarios will happen. 1) alpha regenerates and there for has some resistence to absorption; in which case, she'd probably would get caught up in the environmental flow amid the barotropic region SE of Wilma-Hybrid part II... 2) alpha will not be successfull in regenerating and be gobbled up like a black hole eats a stellar companion..
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 04:56 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Looks like one of the outter bands is approaching Key West on the radar. The presentation on the radar makes it appear that the front is backing off a little bit. This may not be the case. Have not had a good chance to look at the models to see if this was expected, so it may be a non-event as far as the forecast goes.
| vikron |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 04:59 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Pinellas County Schools will be closed tomorrow. The announcement came out at 12:05. BayNews9 Coverage
| Littlebit |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 04:59 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Pinellas and Hillsborough county schools are closed Monday.
| OcalaKT |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 05:03 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Governor doing press conference right now.
| Southern4sure |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 05:05 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Pasco Co. needs to close also...at least southern Pasco. Mondays's forecast isnt weather you want to be on the road for any reason.
Someone mentioned the front stalling, is this the cold front? What effect will this have on Wilma?
| KC |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 05:05 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Jeb Bush is holding a press conference now. He just announced that they anticipate landfall early Monday am in the Keys. Collier Emergency Management will be holding a press conference at 2pm. ABC-7 and NBC-2 will begin their joint coverage at 4:30 pm today, with streaming video available at ABC-7 at 10 pm (www.abc-7.c0m).
| evergladesangler |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 05:10 PM |
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Tropical Storm Risk windfield projection
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Good windfield projection based on NHC track:
http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/tracker/dynamic/images/200524N_2H.png
| Joshua |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 05:12 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Latest recon flight at around 12:34 EST measured minimum central pressure of 963MB, one millibar down from an hour ago. Also, the inner wall is confirmed to be developing quickly. The pressure (963 MB) isn't equal to normal wind speed, so if the pressure increases, it just means the storm is trying to "level itself out". Also, if it continues to drop pressure over the next few hours, you can expect the storms winds to increase.
More at 2PM, I'm sure.
| robynsmom |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 05:13 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Hernando is closed tomorrow. It always seems that Pasco and Hernando do things different. Last year they were opposite on closures.
Is anyone at all worried that this front will stall and the storm will go more north where hardly anyone is prepared? I can't find a met anywhere that will even mention this senario!
| nowhammies |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 05:13 PM |
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school closings
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Just got a call from my school's phne tree saying Osceola is now closed for tomorrow too. Have not seen it or heard it from any news source, but it may be there by the time I go back to confirm it in print
confirmed via school's website
| swimaway19 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 05:17 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Quote:
Hernando is closed tomorrow. It always seems that Pasco and Hernando do things different. Last year they were opposite on closures.
Is anyone at all worried that this front will stall and the storm will go more north where hardly anyone is prepared? I can't find a met anywhere that will even mention this senario!
They have already discussed the scenario, and the front has already stalled as far as it will go for now. They are becoming very confident in their track with the landfall near Naples.
| Sadie |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 05:22 PM |
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Re: Accuweather Track
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Geez, pressure must be really dropping. My ears are popping worse than on any flight I ever took. Need some gum.
| Genesis |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 05:23 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Quote:
Pasco Co. needs to close also...at least southern Pasco. Mondays's forecast isnt weather you want to be on the road for any reason.
Someone mentioned the front stalling, is this the cold front? What effect will this have on Wilma?
The front has actually converted to a warm front according to the latest surface maps (that is, it is now moving northward) - though I don't expect it to move very far, given the trough behind it and the ridging behind THAT.
As for influence, the issue really is one of the tilt axis. I had expected a more N-S tilt axis to be maintained. Instead the front "flattened", stalled, and reversed, essentially flattening out E-W as it backed. From an atmospheric point of view, it got "ahead" of the impulse behind it, and ran out of energy and stalled, rather than being amplified due to being "caught" from behind.
Until Wilma moves around the edge of that flattened section of the gradient, it cannot move northward beyond that point.
The trough coming down out of the midsection will catch the (now stalled) boundary, amplify the front and likely convert it back to a cold front (that is, drive it south once again), and impart a more N-S tilt. However, the timing on this is such that it is extremely unlikely to get there until after Wilma is either onshore or very close to it.
This is why the southward path appears to be verifying. The timing of the arrival of that second impulse of energy will be critical though for two things - the relatively degree of enhancement of tornadic storm risk near the front, and, ultimately, when or if Wilma takes a more poieward bearing as it proceeds.
That second impiulse looks very strong, with a vigorous high behind it. If it produces a negatively-tilted trough in the NE US (entirely possible) then Wilma would be sucked north or even WEST of north after exiting Florida while riding up in the westerlies. This is could produce a severe weather event in the Northeast US. Yesterday it looked like this would not verify (although the GFDL has been hammering at it for days to one degree or another) but today it looks like it might.
As the approach will be at more of a right angle to the coastline than was true for Charlie, small errors will not translate into huge differences in landfall point. I do not see the scenario developing that I had expected in the timeframe required to bend Wilma more northward, which is a strongly-tilted frontal boundary off roughly Cedar Key - instead we've got a flat (E-W) boundary just north of the Tampa area.
As such the path looks good at least at entry to the state. Exactly when she begins to turn more northward is still up in the air, which is why inland warnings are justified across a large part of the peninsula, instead of confining them to areas south of Lake O. In addition, the timing of that turn is tremendously important for the NE US in a couple of days.
| swimaway19 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 05:23 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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I have a quick question for anyone who can answer: What do you think the effects of Wilma will be on Captiva Island?
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 05:25 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Looks like some quick intensification starting tonight, if she continues to slowly organize. Again timing of how far along she is in the reorg process when she hits the loop current will determine this to a large extent, even with the other things that factor into intensity.
And if she does manage to become a Cat 3 for a short time, she won't have weakened very much by the time she reaches the outer Keys. That is why the Keys are at such risk, compared to the mainland.
I was going to put...high-end Cat 3 or even a Cat 4. But I think if that occured it will only be for a very tiny core, and for that area to hit as low as the Keys would mean a course change a little further south, so that is starting to get into the area of lower probability. Still because forecast predictions are limited, and it will be too late to evac once the hurricane is closer, it is important to evac the Keys now.
I understand quite a few are going to stay. Not sure what their motivations mght be, but I'd hate to put myself in a position where my options for staying alive might suddenly become very limited.
| Prospero |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 05:30 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Woo Hoo! Snow day! Snow day!
Ooops, I mean Hurricane day...
With Hillsborough County schools closed, that means Gulf Coast College in Tampa will be closed also.
That's where I work.
The International Academy of Design and Techonology is closed Monday also, and I'm a student there.
So I have a total day off to watch the weather.
Cooool!
Of course, we all hope for no loss of property for anybody, or any loss of life.
Other than that, I'm looking forward to watching the palm trees dance.
OK, I'll be the sole honest person here. I want to be in the eye, with it so strong that it ALMOST causes damage, but not quite. I want my heart to pound to the wind, I want to stand in the doorway invigorated with my eyes wide open watching the sheets of rain blow sideways. I want to BE Jim Cantori!
OK, I'm sorry...
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 05:33 PM |
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Lake County Schools Closed
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From Local 6
CLOSURES: All Lake County Schools will be closed Monday, Oct. 24.
CONDITIONS:
Meteorologists are forecasting Lake County will receive several hours of tropical-force winds (of 39 mph or higher) beginning at 7 a.m. Monday. Total rainfall expected in the County on Monday is approximately 2 inches.
| collegemom |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 05:33 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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I am not familiar with the topography of the projected landfall area. Is there anything there that could influence a sharper angle north?
| KC |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 05:35 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Re: how will Captiva fare. Depends on the exact landfall point, but Captiva is a small barrier island and barrier islands are always at risk. As you probably know, Captiva did not fare well during Charley. The largest resort on the entire island of San-Cap, South Seas Resort, is just preparing to re-open.
| swimaway19 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 05:36 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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It is Florida..... no matter where you go its very flat... no mountains or even sizable hills....just sand dunes at the beach
| swimaway19 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 05:39 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Quote:
Re: how will Captiva fare. Depends on the exact landfall point, but Captiva is a small barrier island and barrier islands are always at risk. As you probably know, Captiva did not fare well during Charley. The largest resort on the entire island of San-Cap, South Seas Resort, is just preparing to re-open.
Thanks! I have an Aunt and Uncle with property on the island. They live in Minnesota, and don't get a lot of hurricane coverage, so we have to keep tabs on it down here for them.
| collegemom |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 05:40 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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LOL yes I would assume it's flat. I meant in terms of the Everglades (the water temp and content there).
| SteveieB |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 05:42 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Anybody hear anything about Seminole County schools. Last I heard they were going to decided at 1030 today. Does no update = school on Monday???
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 05:44 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Quote:
It is Florida..... no matter where you go its very flat... no mountains or even sizable hills....just sand dunes at the beach
Probably the closest thing to a hill are landfills in Broward and Miami-Dade counties. Otherwise, it is about as flat as you can find.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 05:48 PM |
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latest from SPC
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Here is the latest from SPC on the tornado threat for today and tonight... basically it appears that the greatest threat will be in south Florida, with the alignment of the front in central FL not ideal for tornado formation, since storms will quickly move from the warm side to the cool side of the front, rather than along the front. As Wilma approaches, though, the tornado threat closer to the front will also increase:
...S FL...
LEAD CONFLUENCE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA SHOULD REACH THE WRN KEYS
BY MID AFTERNOON...AND SW FL BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
EVENING. COINCIDENT INCREASE IN LOW-LVL SHEAR STRENGTH/ HODOGRAPH
CURVATURE...COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE INFLOW /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR
70S/...WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES. THIS THREAT SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE AND SPREAD E ACROSS
THE SRN PART OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AS WILMA
ACCELERATES NEWD.
...CNTRL FL...
DESPITE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AFOREMENTIONED FRONT OVER
CNTRL FL MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER
TODAY AS HEATING BOOSTS MLCAPE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG. BOTH LOW AND
DEEP SHEAR ALONG BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN MODEST UNTIL THIS EVENING
...WHEN FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS REGION. IN ADDITION...
BOUNDARY ORIENTATION IS SUCH THAT ANY STORMS THAT FORM LIKELY WILL
MOVE FROM WARM TO COOL SIDE FAIRLY RAPIDLY. THUS...ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY NON-SEVERE TODAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH PWS /2+ INCHES/ MAY
YIELD A WET MICROBURST OR TWO. BUT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL INCREASE ALONG BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND MONDAY
AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR STRENGTHENS IN CONJUNCTION WITH ARRIVAL OF
STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH WILMA. INTERACTIONS CONDUCIVE TO
LOW LVL STORM ROTATION MAY ALSO OCCUR BETWEEN THE BOUNDARY AND
WILMA/S OUTER CONFLUENCE BANDS.
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 05:49 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Quote:
Anybody hear anything about Seminole County schools. Last I heard they were going to decided at 1030 today. Does no update = school on Monday???
The following information pertains to Seminole County, it is from local6.com
CLOSURES:
Due to inland tropical storm warnings, potential for tornados, and high wind gusts associated with Hurricane Wilma, Seminole County Public Schools will be closed on Monday, October 24th, for students and all 10- and 11-month staff/personnel, including teachers and bus drivers.
Because of the need for shelters to be open at some schools, and the need for buses and other services in times of emergency, 12-month employees will be on duty at schools and support sites. Those 12-month employees who cannot work due to inclement weather conditions may take appropriate leave.
The Student Make-Up Day previously established and Board approved in the 2005-2006 Student Calendar, will be Wednesday, November 23, 2005.
| Kruz |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 05:50 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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We have some decent sized hills here in Citrus County too!!
| funky |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 05:51 PM |
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Wilma strengthening?
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that eye is starting to clear up on the visible !!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
| COgal |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 05:52 PM |
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Re: Lake County Schools Closed
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The weather here in Lake County (Eustis) is kind of erie today. If you look outside it looks like it may be very cold and ready to snow but humid as heck when you actually walk out into it. Can't imagine being further south right now and what the weather is over there.
| chase 22 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 05:54 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Quote:
I am not familiar with the topography of the projected landfall area. Is there anything there that could influence a sharper angle north?
The projected landfall area is very flat...imagine sawgrass as far as you can see in any direction with a fe "islands" of palm trees. The everglades is a basically a river. Well, the Southern part is. Naples is for the most part the entrance to the everglades. Naples is a mixture of dense Florida canopy and the sawgrass. The farther North you go, the more dense the foliage gets. when you get into North Central Fl, the terrain gets hilly (by hilly I mean 30-50 ft changes in elevation) and actually FL has their own mountain! I forget where it is, but it's like 50 mi or so North of Orlando. I hope that answers you question.
This concludes this geography lesson. Class dismissed.
| KC |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 05:57 PM |
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Re: Lake County Schools Closed
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Quote:
The weather here in Lake County (Eustis) is kind of erie today. If you look outside it looks like it may be very cold and ready to snow but humid as heck when you actually walk out into it. Can't imagine being further south right now and what the weather is over there.
The weather is Naples is now cloudy, winds picking up at 17 ESE gusting to 22 and it still feels humid; the pressure is starting to drop.
| ParrishNStPeteFL |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 05:57 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Baynews9 is sayin pinellas county schools will be closed
| leetdan |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 05:58 PM |
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RMore closures
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I didn't see it mentioned earlier, but UCF has just canceled all classes for Monday. http://www.ucf.edu to see for yourself.
edit:
Quote:
I hate posting something as general as this, but c’mon guys! It isn’t that difficult… If you’re under a hurricane warning, don’t go to school on Monday. Post this stuff in the current conditions forum.
In all fairness, it took UCF until 1pm to decide. Nevermind Orlando, there are many students like myself who would much rather stay with family in South Florida rather than head back to campus and deal with it there.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 05:59 PM |
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Re: Wilma strengthening?
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Yes I just saw the eye on Visible.She still continues to look better and better.The winds should be increased on the next update or later tonight.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 06:00 PM |
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Dew Points at 1 p.m.
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Earlier I posted the 10 a.m. dew points. Here are the 1 p.m dew points and changes since 10 a.m.:
Tallahassee 48 0
Gainesville 62 +5
Orlando 77 +2
West Palm Beach 78 0
Miami Beach 82 +1
Looks like the front was pushed back somewhat northward based on the +5 dew point increase at Gainesville. I'll keep tabs on this all day.
| Addicted2Cane |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 06:01 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Quote:
We have some decent sized hills here in Citrus County too!!
We do?
use PM for these comments. it's just clutter to make posts like this, and the site is sluggish enough right now with all the traffic. read the forum rules. -HF
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 06:02 PM |
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topography
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the river of air above the ground is what's guiding wilma. land mass interaction is really only important when you have high, rugged terrain or a very slow moving system with weak atmospheric steering that can be tugged around by friction from land. the low, flat topography of florida isn't going to do much to warp the path of the storm.
HF 1802z23october
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 06:03 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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I hate posting something as general as this, but c’mon guys! It isn’t that difficult… If you’re under a hurricane warning, don’t go to school on Monday. Post this stuff in the current conditions thread.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 06:05 PM |
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Re: Wilma strengthening?
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The 12Z GFDL is quite a bit deeper with Wilma, bringing it down below 950 mb over the Gulf and around 950 mb at landfall. However, it shows fairly rapid deepening right away, forecasting the pressure to already be down to 947 mb by 18Z today (about right now), and that simply hasn't happened yet. The satellite presentation is still unimpressive and based on the recon it is still struggling to hold its own. The large outer eyewall and concentric eyewall structure is typically not associated with systems that intensify very rapidly. Some slow deepening is still possible in the storm' s current configuration, but even that has not happened yet.
| LadyStorm |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 06:07 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Quote:
Baynews9 is sayin pinellas county schools will be closed
Just got the word that Volusia County is closed as well.
| Orange Crush |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 06:08 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings for Parts of the Florida Peninsula
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The University of Central Florida will be closed tomorrow (monday) as well. This means I get another week to study for my test.
-Nick
| KC |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 06:10 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Collier Emergency Management is holding a press conference and they are still expecting landfall in the vicinity of Marco Island early tomorrow morning. Shelters opened this morning and registrations are continuing. Curfews are in place for areas under mandatory evac orders in Collier County.
| maddie |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 06:11 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
|
Here in Pasco County( you know the one county that still has schools open) is very muggy but a breeze has started.....Bay News 9 is stating that the hurricane is still looking very healthy , you think much intensification will occur before landfall?
| R-U-Q-R-U |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 06:17 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Quote:Quote:
It is Florida..... no matter where you go its very flat... no mountains or even sizable hills....just sand dunes at the beach
Probably the closest thing to a hill are landfills in Broward and Miami-Dade counties. Otherwise, it is about as flat as you can find.
Actually the Mount Dora area of Lake County is pretty hilly by FL standards.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 06:18 PM |
|
Re: Here it comes!
|
URNT12 KNHC 231807
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/17:50:10Z
B. 23 deg 02 min N
085 deg 27 min W
C. 700 mb 2778 m
D. NA kt
E. 000 deg 000 nm
F. 216 deg 085 kt
G. 135 deg 059 nm
H. 963 mb
I. 8 C/ 3046 m
J. 14 C/ 3050 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C60
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.06 / 2 nm
P. AF304 2124A WILMA OB 21
MAX FL WIND 96 KT SE QUAD 17:16:40 Z
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 06:19 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
|
Anything is possible in a hurricane, but hopefully it will stay stable. The waters around the Gulf have always been difficult to predict in how they will or will not support a system. I still think for the coastal areas the biggest danger is storm surge. The rain is an issue for areas that have poor drainage. The final element will be that people are not complacent, but are experiencing hurricane fatigue, financial costs are much higher than this time last year, and the numbers at face value of Cat one or two are not scary after seeing the effects of Katrina and Rita. This system is one that everyone needs to have a plan and pray they don't need it.
| EaglezFan42 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 06:19 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Pasco County schools closed on Monday!
Just got a phone call from the district. They always have to be the last ones to close school, dont they? LOL
| age234 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 06:20 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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This has probably been posted a lot, but what is the link to the site that translates that recon data to a readable form?
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 06:21 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 06:21 PM |
|
Re: Here it comes!
|
No indication of an inner eyewall on the latest recon. If anything, I think that if Wilma is going to intensify much from here, it is going to have to get rid of the inner eyewall fragment and contract the outer eyewall. The inner eyewall doesn't have much of a chance to become very strong since it is within a stronger outer eyewall.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 06:22 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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CoC now beginning to show on Key West radar.
| DeLandT |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 06:26 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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The highest point in Florida is called Britton Hill. The elevation is a nosebleeding 345 feet. Located in Lakewood Park.
| chase 22 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 06:26 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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For those of you that live in the TB area...If you go outside and look to the North you can actually see the warm fron to the North, and the darker clouds of Wilma to the SW. It's pretty cool to actually see what you have been talking about.
| Rdietch |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 06:31 PM |
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Re: Here it comes! *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
|
This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| FireAng85 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 06:32 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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The "Mountain" area you are referring to is called Sugarloaf Mountain.. It's as close to a mountain as we get here in Florida. Check this out!
http://shorton.phpwebhosting.com/slideshows/sugarloaf_mtn.htm
It is in Lake County around Montverde/Ferndale. It's very pretty........
Thought Florida was flat, did ya? If this is your first tour of central Florida, you may be in for some surprises. Rising to the grand elevation of 310 feet, Sugar Loaf affords a panoramic view of glistening Lake Apopka and various smaller lakes. Citrus groves of orange and grapefruit trees, sprawling ranch houses and marinas await you. Terrain: flat to rolling hills....
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 06:35 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Surface winds measured by dropsondes into the eyewall have been unusually low the last couple of hours... nothing to even hurricane force. It's possible that these measurements aren't representing the true surface winds, or else the surface wind field is significantly disrupted compared to the mid-level wind field, which is possible given the disorganized eye structure and the recent interaction with land. Even if that is the case, the surface wind field will probably recover with time to become more along the lines of what you would expect with a hurricane of this size and magnitude.
| chase 22 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 06:38 PM |
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Re: Here it comes! *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* *DELETED* *DELETED*
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Post deleted by chase 22
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 06:42 PM |
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posting rules
|
this forum is meant for discussion of the hurricane's track and forecast, as well as critical information about impacts and real emergency-type info. you can use this forum to make forecasts if you explain your reasoning or support your ideas with evidence... otherwise it goes in the forecast lounge. comments about the official hurricane statements, discussion about what's going on with the hurricane, reports about local storm impacts, and the like are perfectly OK here. if the post you're making is one line of superfluous information or not relevant or just chat-room banter, it doesn't belong here. i.e. everybody expects that the schools are going to be shut down on the peninsula tomorrow.. it's just depressing at seeing how slow and boneheaded local government can be somtimes. comments that can be reduced to 'what?' or 'you think?' or 'i agree' aren't necessary. no amount of smiley faces make them interesting. alarmist posts like 'it's going to cat 5' or 'we're all going to die!!!' aren't welcome either.
the site is built so that you can go to other forums for other discussion, or use PM to talk to individuals if what you're saying isn't directed at an individual (uncalled-for snide remarks about other people who post here aren't going to last on the main board either). when there's lots of traffic, i.e. we have a hurricane event, lots of folks unfamiliar with the board rules tend to clutter the main forum up with non-relevant discussion. please read the forum rules before posting so that you can keep your comments on topic. it makes the forum run and read better, and keeps the mods from being busy editing all the time.
'nuff of that. enjoy the forum.
HF 1843z23october
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 06:43 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Actually the current track is just south of Naples. It has been in that general area for about a week. The NHC's paths never pin pointed any city above Ft. Myers; it was always Ft. Myers or south. The models, like the GFDL and GFS had Wilma going through Sarasota a few times, but the projected path was never Sarasota or Tampa. The guy may be talking about posters who read atmospheric conditions, the troughs, etc... and offered their opinions about the track MAYBE being shifted north near the Sarasota/Tampa area. That being said, the posters from those two areas lashed out (including me) at those who offered their own predictions about landfall. Furthermore, there is nothing wrong with that...that is what this is for and because of the tense situation, people (again, like me) didn't like seeing their city being mentioned all the time. No harm done though...people just have to accept the fact that opinions are just that - opinions and until the NHC or your local authorities tell you to worry, you should remain calm. A few posters on here reminded me of that and i understand now and apologize for any lashing out i did.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 06:44 PM |
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Re: Check out the dew points at 10 a.m.
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I had posted earlier talking extensively about this possibility... Our local offices are going bonkers..! Case you guys didn't know, but a Nor'easter actually has more storm based energy output than a hurricane, adding a hurricane to the mix is a great deal fun. anyway....where are all the new england users/mets?
...HURRICANE WILMA WILL TRANSITION INTO A DANGEROUS OCEAN STORM
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAINS AND
COASTAL FLOODING...
ALL ATTENTION WILL TURN TO HURRICANE WILMA JUST RE-EMERGING OFF OF
MEXICO. WILMA HAS BEEN MOVING INCREDIBLY SLOW BUT THINGS ARE GOING
TO CHANGE VERY QUICKLY. THE DEEP EASTERN TROUGH WILL PICK WILMA UP
AND ITS EXPECTED TO RACE TO THE NORTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE PAST 24 HOURS
TRACKING THE STORM MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILMA WILL TRANSITION
INTO AN EXTREMELY POWERFUL OCEAN STORM HAVING CHARACTERISTICS THAT
ARE PARTIALLY TROPICAL/EXTRA-TROPICAL. THE CANADIAN/UKMET/GFS/ECMWF
ARE ALL SHOWING A LOW BETWEEN 970 AND 980 MB JUST SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET AT TUESDAY 12Z. MEANWHILE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THERE IS A
1030 MB HIGH. THEREFORE...EXPECTING AN INCREDIBLE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO DEVELOP AND THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE DEPICTING 70 KNOTS OF
WIND AT 850 MB OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE...WILL BE ISSUING A
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE COASTAL LOCATIONS VERY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR NORTHEAST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 06:51 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Thunderbird - I was watching TWC and they said something the other day about the upper levels of the storm being swept NE faster than the lower levels. Could this be what is happening now? What happens when a storm such as this has it's head taken off? Can it survive without that upper level feature?
| Mayor of Moronia |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 06:53 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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According to the NHC weather map I just looked at the trough has retreated from a line between Tampa and Yucatan, to a line between Apalachicola and Brownsville TX. Unless this is an older map (the time is current) posted in error, it would seem that WILMA will move NNW rather than NW. I'll check it again in a while and see if I need new eyes. At any rate my arthritis and sinuses say the trough has moved.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 06:59 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Are you sure you don't mean NE? The front is supposed to sweep the storm NE, and thought that it already had done so. I'll have to check that out...thanks for bringing that to our attention!
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:01 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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I don't recall any of the Tampa Bay mets ever predicting that Tampa Bay would take a direct hit. They HAVE said that the storm could end up further north than Naples ...as in Ft. Myers, which is still in the "cone". All they have said is that everyone in the Tampa Bay area needed to keep a close eye on the storm because of the difficulty of predicting a storm 5 days out.
What they are telling us now is what the NWS is saying...that because of the large wind area, that areas north of where the storm will eventually will make landfall will experience TS winds in the northern coastal and inland counties; the counties in their southern viewing areas can expect hurricane force winds in the coastal and inland counties.
Given the cone of error, Naples seems to be in the bullseye. However, the margin of error is always there (ala Charley) and it could make landfall further south of Naples or further north of Naples. The NHC mentions this in every single advisory. If you've watched most hurricanes, they always seem jog a tad (or more at times) to either the east/west/north/south. Ed Rappaport said today in a CNN interview that it could be Ft. Myers, it could be Naples or it could be further south of Naples, but that with the size of the storm, you cannot focus on just the black line because most of the peninsula will feel some effects from Wilma.
Hopefully, this will end this topic. Move on and watch and wait for where this storm ends up and hope that wherever it ends up, no one suffers any major damage.
| chase 22 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:03 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Quote:
According to the NHC weather map I just looked at the trough has retreated from a line between Tampa and Yucatan, to a line between Apalachicola and Brownsville TX. Unless this is an older map (the time is current) posted in error, it would seem that WILMA will move NNW rather than NW. I'll check it again in a while and see if I need new eyes. At any rate my arthritis and sinuses say the trough has moved.
It is in fact that. Genesis had a great post about this subject a couple of pages back.
| Rdietch |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:04 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Quote:
I don't recall any of the Tampa Bay mets ever predicting that Tampa Bay would take a direct hit. They HAVE said that the storm could end up further north than Naples ...as in Ft. Myers, which is still in the "cone". All they have said is that everyone in the Tampa Bay area needed to keep a close eye on the storm because of the difficulty of predicting a storm 5 days out.
What they are telling us now is what the NWS is saying...that because of the large wind area, that areas north of where the storm will eventually will make landfall will experience TS winds in the northern coastal and inland counties; the counties in their southern viewing areas can expect hurricane force winds in the coastal and inland counties.
Given the cone of error, Naples seems to be in the bullseye. However, the margin of error is always there (ala Charley) and it could make landfall further south of Naples or further north of Naples. The NHC mentions this in every single advisory. If you've watched most hurricanes, they always seem jog a tad (or more at times) to either the east/west/north/south. Ed Rappaport said today in a CNN interview that it could be Ft. Myers, it could be Naples or it could be further south of Naples, but that with the size of the storm, you cannot focus on just the black line because most of the peninsula will feel some effects from Wilma.
Hopefully, this will end this topic. Move on and watch and wait for where this storm ends up and hope that wherever it ends up, no one suffers any major damage.
I never said the tampa bay mets i said the ones on here LET IT GO have fun and watch this storm and be happy but let it go i was talking about the semi pro mets on here/
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:07 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Quote:
Thunderbird - I was watching TWC and they said something the other day about the upper levels of the storm being swept NE faster than the lower levels. Could this be what is happening now? What happens when a storm such as this has it's head taken off? Can it survive without that upper level feature?
It sounds like TWC was talking about the effects of strong wind shear (stronger winds at upper-levels compared to the lower-levels) on the system. That doesn't seem to be occurring yet... the strong wind shear probably won't set in until later tonight, though there may not be enough time for the shear to weaken the system signifcantly before it reaches Florida. Right now, Wilma still seems to be struggling with the effects of being over land for such a long time, which disrupted its inner circulation.
Weaker systems actually can have their mid-level circulations disconnected from the surface circulation due to strong wind shear... which inevitably leads to dissipation. That won't happen in a strong system such as Wilma, instead Wilma will eventually develop into more of a non-tropical low pressure system thanks to the effects of shear and also interacting with a cold front.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:07 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Chase - No disrespect to you, but wouldn't the NHC and other outlets have an update if in fact the storm was moving NNE and changing paths? The 2pm update still says NE @ 12 MPH. I am confused.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:08 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Well, i know I said it earlier. The bands have been very slow in their approach to Key West. Looks like the band is finally within an hour of really giving Key West a good dose of rain. The next band, that will be a number of hours later, appear more potent. I would not be surprised to see a tornado watch issued within the hour based upon the the discussion from SPC.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:10 PM |
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Re: posting rules
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Checking the sat images occasionally inbetween laundry and changing out the closet (we came close to snow flurries last night), and it appears that the attempts to pull tog the inner eye have not amounted to anything...not too much convection firing off there anymore and that area is starting to clear out again. The outer eyewall, while complete, does not have a continuous strong band of convection encircling it, although it is getting more defined (the temp diff is probably incrsng), and that band is thickening (been looking at the 85ghz off and on since 11am).
In fact there's not much else besides this outer eyewall that isn't reduced down to TS strength...but that didn't deter Wilma before from having a strong core. Earlier this morning (about 3am) the outer windfield had built up and was looking better, but that's mostly gone now.
On visual the eye is starting to show that it's clearing out, but the change on wv within the eye isn't that impressive yet, although the surrounding eyewall is showing cooler cloud tops. She's starting to touch the edges of the loop current now. I think we'll start to see the eye come together later in the afternoon, and once that happens, she could intensify quickly for a short time. Overall...she continues to look better, not worse, but improvement is happening very slowly, and is in terms of organization, not increased windspeed.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:13 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Quote:
Weaker systems actually can have their mid-level circulations disconnected from the surface circulation due to strong wind shear... which inevitably leads to dissipation.
Not always. The LLC can be very tenacious. I think we had one this year that came back for awhile before conditions finally became too hostile, but can't remember offhand which one it was.
Not a factor for Wilma in any case.
| chase 22 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:15 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Quote:
Chase - No disrespect to you, but wouldn't the NHC and other outlets have an update if in fact the storm was moving NNE and changing paths? The 2pm update still says NE @ 12 MPH. I am confused.
No: what I was saying is that the cold front did in fact retreat, thus reverting to a warm front. I am not implying that Wilma is or will turn to the N, NW, or NNW. There is just simply no meteorological data to back up that drastic of a change. I simply read the post and assumed that the NW direction they were refering to was a typo. I believe that Wilma will hit FL late tonight.
Is it possible for Wilma to turn North? Yes, but likely? probably not. Take a look at Genesis post a couple of pages back. It is very informative, and will answer your question better than I can.
Sorry for the confusion
| Mayor of Moronia |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:19 PM |
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Re: Here it comes! *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
|
This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| FireAng85 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:23 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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I'm sorry, but I can't resist.....
Quoting Larry The Cable Guy:
"Now that's funny right there, I don't care who you are"
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:24 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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well its not often durning a season we see a floater on two systems... pretty shot here
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-rgb-loop.html
| Mayor of Moronia |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:25 PM |
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Re: posting rules
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When Dennis Phillips noted the change in Charleys course it took the NHC a little while to confirm it. Looking at the movie loop of WILMA there seems to be a northward bump at the end of the loop. But we'll see! WILMA wont be the first storm to deviate from the projected path, if this is happening.
| zacker20 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:25 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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The Tampa area will feel very little effects from Wilma. Trust me.
| Nutmeg |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:27 PM |
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Re: Check out the dew points at 10 a.m.
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Quote:
anyway....where are all the new england users/mets?
New England here! And have been watching closely for days now. We are aware and very concerned. I've been through hurricanes in the tropics and through nor'easters in New England...have profound respect for both!
As things develop I will start posting more. Meanwhile, all good thoughts from the Nutmeg State (Connecticut) to our friends in Florida and our prayers for recovery to the Yucatan.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:27 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Not to pile on, it is Sunday LOL, but to me it appears that the front has move deeper into Fl than it was this morning, at least the Eastern portion of Fl, looks like it wants to go to Lake Ocha
| Joshua |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:29 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Quote:
The Tampa area will feel very little effects from Wilma. Trust me.
Actually, check NWS tonight for a new forecast. Ed Rappaport was just quoted on the local news as saying that, "the circulation is expanding." So, that means the TS force winds may extend out FURTHER than previously forecast.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:30 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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URNT12 KNHC 231918
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/19:05:40Z
B. 23 deg 19 min N
085 deg 16 min W
C. 700 mb 2769 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 341 deg 071 kt
G. 260 deg 039 nm
H. 961 mb
I. 13 C/ 3046 m
J. 14 C/ 3046 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. 55
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF304 2124A WILMA OB 27
MAX FL WIND 96 KT S QUAD 17:16:40 Z
SFC CNTR 180 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR
CLOUD CURVATURE DEVELOPING WITHIN EYE. STORM SHOWING MORE TILT FROM FLIGHT LEVEL TO SURFACE.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:30 PM |
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Re: posting rules
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Looks to be as much as a northerly bump as the easterly bump preceding it
| FireAng85 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:31 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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What does "more tilt" mean?
| chase 22 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:31 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Today a shopper at WAL-MART told me WILMA is gonna collide with the" trough-thing" and split apart into a hurricane and a tropical storm.
Now you want to talk about wishcasting...thats just not possible as the trough and Wilma cannot interact to that degree. As you said earlier, Wilma has the front running back to GA, but that can't last long as that low over the Ohio valley is racing South which will provide "back up" and again force the what is now a warm front back South which will the revert it back into a cold front. If that makes sense
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:34 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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The "tilt" noted in that last recon may be an indication that the shear is already beginning to affect the storm more than I would have thought, with the surface center slightly south of the flight-level center. Of course, that could also be an effect of eyewall reorganization.
The satellite presentation seems to be slowly improving and the pressure dropped 2 mb from the last recon fix. In the four recon fixes on the current mission, the storm has moved 36' N and 36' E (exactly NE) covering a period of 4 hours. Between individual recon fixes, there have been jogs to the ENE and NNE, but the longer term average motion has been NE.
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:35 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Quote:
Actually, check NWS tonight for a new forecast. Ed Rappaport was just quoted on the local news as saying that, "the circulation is expanding." So, that means the TS force winds may extend out FURTHER than previously forecast.
Actually this is exactly what was forecasted, even before now, that it would expand. There's been much discussion in the discussions about Wilma transitioning into a Extratropical mid-latitude type system. These have much more expanded wind fields. Nothing really should change at all with the forecast, because that's what its based upon now.
It's likely that Tampa really won't see much more than low end Tropical Storm winds, in a few squalls. The wind will be steady though there., but below tropical storm force for the most part. Orlando too fairly much the same, but slightly stronger winds, and of course stronger the further south and east you go. Roughly draw the line from the West Coast hurricane warning to the east coast hurricane warning to get a good idea where the high end tropical storm/hurricane force winds likely will be.
| Joshua |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:35 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Quote:
What does "more tilt" mean?
That just basically means that there is some upper-level shear coming from the GOM and blowing the cloud tops into the center. It's almost as it the "tops" are getting blown off the top of the clouds. This could just be temporary, but we'll see at 5.
| pincty |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:36 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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That's the same way I feel too. Check posts last night from amateur mets stating that the front wasn't going to make it and that Tampa could be in for a surprise. Even now when its tracking the way the NHC said it would, Tampa still comes up. Like I said yesterday, this is a hobby weather site. Trust the NHC....some good info can be learned on Flhurricane.com however some off the wall info must be disregarded. I realize the NHC makes errors too, but they are pros and their opinions should be trusted much more than housewives, accountants, teachers, cooks, etc. who make predictions on where a devastating hurricane will hit.
| Gabrialle |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:36 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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I have been watching this site since last years hurricanes, and very impressed with all the knowledge. I live in St. Cloud ( Osceola County ) anyone have any idea on how bad Wilma will effect me? Thank you in advance for any responses.
| zacker20 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:39 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Quote:Quote:
The Tampa area will feel very little effects from Wilma. Trust me.
Actually, check NWS tonight for a new forecast.
I can GUARANTEE you...
Edit - you can't guaranteed ANYTHING unless you are God, which I assume you are not. In fact, the current Tampa forecast indicates wind speeds over 60 mph in the area.
Please keep your posts to facts otherwise post in the forecast lounge.
| chase 22 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:39 PM |
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Re: Here it comes!
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Quote:
The Tampa area will feel very little effects from Wilma. Trust me.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw
The NHC is disagreeing with you. They are predicting 44-47mph winds with 60mph gusts. I am just not seeing where you are getting you info from. I f the track shifts a mere 50 mi. N (about 1/2 degree in lattitude) that will significantly chage everybodies forcast. I don't think it's safe to say that anybody is in the clear as of yet
| Joshua |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:41 PM |
|
Re: Here it comes!
|
Quote:Quote:
The Tampa area will feel very little effects from Wilma. Trust me.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw
The NHC is disagreeing with you. They are predicting 44-47mph winds with 60mph gusts
Yes, they are disagreeing with him because they actually have a TS Warning for that area. Therefore, people need to PREPARE for TS conditions (i.e. taking your patio furniture off of the patio, loose halloween stuff inside, etc.)
| blizzardnut |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:43 PM |
|
Re: Check out the dew points at 10 a.m.
|
Quote:
anyway....where are all the new england users/mets?
Well, here's one... longtime lurker, first time poster. Great, great site! Plus my in-laws live on the beach in Melbourne, so more than just a casual interest in this one. We've had 14 inches of rain in the last two weeks, otherwise I'd say "bring 'er on!" I think with the front all the fun stuff will get swept out to sea, plus it looks like we're more likely to get snow showers than tropical storm conditions. But it may be interesting... with the saturated ground here, winds might have more punch than otherwise. We'll see!
Edit - WELCOME!!
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:44 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Here it comes!
|
Tornado watch issued. Effective over All of S Fla, including the keys and extends up to North of Tampa and across to Seminole county, including Orlando.
Edit: Correction, Does not include the Orlando area. Does include Polk county West. My software only draws a box, so the box had the Orlando area.
| Joshua |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:46 PM |
|
Re: Here it comes!
|
Please keep in mind that the NWS is forecasting the winds because of the pressure gradient. The closer those lines of equal pressure are together in the computer models you see all the time, the faster the air (wind) moves. Gusts are in the squalls Tampa Bay *may* get.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:47 PM |
|
Re: Here it comes!
|
Latest round of dropsondes found stronger winds in the E eyewall. No surface wind was recorded, but the wind was 109 kts at 925 mb, 113 kts at 850mb, and averaged to 94 knots over the lowest 150m until the sonde stopped reporting. Using the usual relationships, these would support surface winds of 85-90 knots (100-105 mph).
| Joshua |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:50 PM |
|
Re: Here it comes!
|
http://www.intellicast.com/WeatherImg/RadarLoop/eyw_None_anim.gif
That radar link really will show the center go across the state nicely. They are combined between Melbourne, Miami and Key West, with little attenuation.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:51 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Here it comes!
|
You may also want to read this:
Inland TS Warning For Tampa Bay Area
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:53 PM |
|
|
|
Tornado Watch counties
|
FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWARD CHARLOTTE CITRUS
COLLIER DESOTO GLADES
HARDEE HENDRY HERNANDO
HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH LEE
MANATEE MIAMI-DADE MONROE
PALM BEACH PASCO PINELLAS
POLK SARASOTA SUMTER
| Geoff |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:53 PM |
|
Re: Here it comes!
|
Its current path appears to take it through Big Cypress Preserve, across below Belle Glade, and then north of Jupiter (over Johnathon Dickinson State Park); so it appears to be about the best case scenario because those areas all the way through the state are fairly unpopulated...except by alligators, turtles and fishhawks (and a lot of sugar cane).
If you look at the Visible Floater Loop with the TPC Forcast Points layer on, it appears that she is running just a tad north of the forcast track. If that continued it would still be close to the current TPC track but maybe slightly north of it (which I guess would be a little closer to Naples...lets hope not). Hopefully it will stay on its current path.
| chase 22 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:55 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Here it comes!
|
For those who live in the Tampa Bay area...
From the NWS in Ruskin
MINOR DAMAGE WILL OCCUR TO MANY MOBILE HOMES. POORLY CONSTRUCTED
HOMES MAY RECEIVE SOME WALL DAMAGE AND PARTIAL ROOF REMOVAL. A FEW
HOUSES MAY HAVE MINOR DAMAGE TO ROOF SHINGLES AND SIDING. A FEW
POOL CAGES AND LANAI SCREENS WILL BE DAMAGED. UNSECURED
LIGHTWEIGHT ITEMS MAY BECOME PROJECTILES...CAUSING ADDITIONAL
DAMAGE. SOME ELECTRICAL WIRES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOCAL POWER
OUTAGES ARE LIKELY.
MOST NEWLY PLANTED TREES AND SHRUBS WILL BE DAMAGED OR UPROOTED.
SOME ROTTING SMALL TREES WILL BE UPROOTED...AND ROTTEN LARGE
BRANCHES WILL SNAP. NUMEROUS SMALL TWIGS WILL SEPARATE FROM TREES.
A FEW PALM FRONDS WILL BE BLOWN DOWN.
| engicedave |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 07:55 PM |
|
Re: Tornado Watch counties
|
FYI - Just got an automated phone call from PB County schools...closed Monday and Tuesday
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 08:08 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Tornado Watch counties
|
Tornado Watch For The Tampa Area issued by the NWS till 1am EDT Monday
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 08:12 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Here it comes!
|
Quote:
Its current path appears to take it through Big Cypress Preserve, across below Belle Glade, and then north of Jupiter (over Johnathon Dickinson State Park); so it appears to be about the best case scenario because those areas all the way through the state are fairly unpopulated...except by alligators, turtles and fishhawks (and a lot of sugar cane).
If you look at the Visible Floater Loop with the TPC Forcast Points layer on, it appears that she is running just a tad north of the forcast track. If that continued it would still be close to the current TPC track but maybe slightly north of it (which I guess would be a little closer to Naples...lets hope not). Hopefully it will stay on its current path.
Please realize that this is a 200 mile wide storm. To say it will pass over unpopulated areas might give some people the wrong impression. This is a dangerous storm and no one should take it lightly.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 08:13 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Tornado Watch counties
|
Tornado Watch 836:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0836.html
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 08:15 PM |
|
|
Re: Tornado Watch counties
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Quote:
Tornado Watch 836:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0836.html
That watch will likely extend further east, and perhaps north, as we go forward in time.
| swimaway19 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 08:17 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Tornado Watch counties
|
According to Wunderground's NexRad Radar, there have been at least two doplar indicated waterspouts/tornadoes in the last half hour near Key West
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=BYX
Click on Animate
Click on Storm Tracks
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 08:18 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Here it comes!
|
Interesting with that last vortex message. A little to the north of the path. I think it is more of a reformation in a large eye then a wobble, though. Pressure down slightly. Do not expect it to continue, though.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 08:21 PM |
|
|
|
Yes, be careful what we say
|
I agree, be careful what we say about a so called alligator track. That track would put all of the 5 million people in SE Florida in the right front quadrant. This is the most populated area in the state right next to the so called alligator track.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 08:23 PM |
|
Re: Here it comes!
|
If the area is populated with one person then that one person is in the path of the storm and is in danger. With Rita,
our area was supposedly "less populated" than Houston
(we have over 200,000 in the Golden Triangle) but she
did extensive damage just the same. To the people "under the gun" it really doesn't matter
whether their area is highly populated or not. It is still POPULATED. Whereever Wilma hits she is going to do some damage and just
because it isn't a big city like New Orleans, it still affects people's lives.
| Geoff |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 08:25 PM |
|
Re: Here it comes!
|
I wasn't trying to downplay what is about to happen becuase I have friends throughout southwest Florida and in Palm Beach and Martin Counties (I lived in Jupiter and North Palm Beach), and yes it is a big storm. I guess all I was saying is that it would be even more terrible if the eye followed Charley's footsteps through Punta Gorda, Lake Wales, Orlando and Daytona. There are still way too many temporary trailers with displaced residents from that storm.
Quote:Quote:
Its current path appears to take it through Big Cypress Preserve, across below Belle Glade, and then north of Jupiter (over Johnathon Dickinson State Park); so it appears to be about the best case scenario because those areas all the way through the state are fairly unpopulated...except by alligators, turtles and fishhawks (and a lot of sugar cane).
If you look at the Visible Floater Loop with the TPC Forcast Points layer on, it appears that she is running just a tad north of the forcast track. If that continued it would still be close to the current TPC track but maybe slightly north of it (which I guess would be a little closer to Naples...lets hope not). Hopefully it will stay on its current path.
Please realize that this is a 200 mile wide storm. To say it will pass over unpopulated areas might give some people the wrong impression. This is a dangerous storm and no one should take it lightly.
| Geoff |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 08:28 PM |
|
Re: Here it comes!
|
Sorry. I should have thought about what I said before I said it. Won't happen again.
| RedingtonBeachGuy |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 08:30 PM |
|
Forum Rules Reminder
|
The site bandwidth could be severely tested today as the storm approaches the coast, but you can help by not posting the obvious and keeping your posts informative. We need to reduce the number of one-liners so that we can keep the site up and running during this serious event. Your help is appreciated. Some one-liners are ok if they are informative - just try to keep the number of them down.
If you aren't contributing facts, post in the Forecast Lounge. I am going to start cracking a whip from here on out.
| Joshua |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 08:34 PM |
|
Re: Forum Rules Reminder
|
The Broward County EOC has stated that Broward County schools are closed Monday and Tuesday for everyone's information
(especially parents)
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 08:38 PM |
|
|
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Re: Forum Rules Reminder
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well you can clearly see the second front that will send wilma on here way on this loop...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/EAST/GMEX/RGB_loop.html
check NWS Fronts box
pretty october day in the Gulf Of Mexico.. except for that Cane down there... surf here in PCB was sweet this morning.. about 6-10ft with offshore winds... will try to upload some pics to my site later and post links... looked almost like it did when emily's swell kicked up to back here in july... water in low 80's...
found some pics from a surf shop here in PCB:
http://www.mrsurfs.com/surf_pics/surf1.jpg
http://www.mrsurfs.com/surf_pics/surf2.jpg
http://www.mrsurfs.com/surf_pics/surf3.jpg
| RedingtonBeachGuy |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 08:45 PM |
|
Lots of Warm Water out there still
|
You can pick up the wave action, marine reports, and water temps ahead of Wilma at this site:
http://www.oceanweather.com/data/Gulf-of-Mexico/index.html
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 08:45 PM |
|
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|
Re: Forum Rules Reminder
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here's latest on Alpha:
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...20.6 N... 72.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
ALPHA COULD BRIEFLY REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE
DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR SO.S FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(sounds like Alpha was short lived)
**AT 5 AM AST (corrected 5 PM AST)...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.***
latest on Wilma coming...
| RedingtonBeachGuy |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 08:51 PM |
|
Florida Roads
|
Looks like traffic is still moderate on I-75 and I-95 heading North. Venice is reporting higher vehicle counts per hour than historically average but everything is still flowing smoothly it looks like.
http://www3.dot.state.fl.us/trafficinformation/
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 08:52 PM |
|
|
|
Fronts
|
Good link, thanks....from looking at those two fronts, I am thinking you are talking about the 2nd one being the one that's currently over LA/TX that will steer Wilma? Looks like the cold front is just north of TB with a stationary front on it's tail. Is that what you are seeing? Here in Lakeland you can feel a part of the cold front...but I don't think it's all the way here though, because it will feel humid one minute and then a little bit of a cool breeze follows. However, the humidity is definitely a little bit lower than what it was two hours ago. It also looks like the storm is going a little NNE than NE. Of course, those could be wobbles or changes in the eyewall.
Just my own observations, right or wrong.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 08:54 PM |
|
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Re: Fronts
|
WILMA:
WILMA A LITTLE STRONGER AND ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
FLORIDA...
REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...23.5 N... 84.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 959 MB.
| sprghill |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 08:57 PM |
|
|
Re: Fronts
|
Repeating the 4 PM CDT position...23.5 N... 84.9 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 14 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 959 mb.
| Tracey |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 08:57 PM |
|
Re: Fronts
|
Looks to me to be following the second front, not the first. Any thoughts?
| Bev |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 08:58 PM |
|
|
Eyewall and radar
|
The radar at La Bajada, Cuba has the entire eyewall.
La Bajada Radar
Appears to be moving just slightly north of NHC predicted track.
-Bev
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 08:58 PM |
|
Re: Eyewall and radar
|
URNT12 KNHC 232053
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/20:30:10Z
B. 23 deg 34 min N
085 deg 03 min W
C. 700 mb 2760 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 144 deg 088 kt
G. 044 deg 052 nm
H. 959 mb
I. 8 C/ 3055 m
J. 15 C/ 3048 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C45
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.03 / 2 nm
P. AF304 2124A WILMA OB 32
MAX FL WIND 96 KT SE QUAD 17:16:40 Z
| vikron |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 09:01 PM |
Re: Florida Roads
|
I have been a "frequent flyer" of this site for several days. This is my second post and would like to thank the mods/mets and the others for there seemingly endless hours of information and links. I have shared the info I found here with family and friends and am amazed at the lack of concern for this storm and the affects that she will/may have here in Pinellas County. I hope everyone chooses to be safe rather than sorry. Stay safe.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 09:02 PM |
|
Re: Eyewall and radar
|
Pressure down a little more and the eye diameter is shrinking if the vortex reports are accurate, which would allow for more intensification if it continues.
I assume the increase in winds is due to that one dropsonde in the eastern eyewall I mentioned earlier. The most recent dropsonde in the NE eyewall measured 86 kt surface winds. There is a NOAA plane with an SFMR in the area, which may have some additional data on the surface wind speed. It'll be interesting to see what the discussion says.
| Geoff |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 09:08 PM |
|
Re: Eyewall and radar
|
Here is the link to all the Cuban RADAR locations, including La Bajada. Just click on the red dot that corresponds to the location. It's also coming into view on the Casablanca RADAR (Which appears to be at Havana).
http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADARES
Quote:
The radar at La Bajada, Cuba has the entire eyewall.
La Bajada Radar
Appears to be moving just slightly north of NHC predicted track.
-Bev
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 09:14 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Eyewall and radar
|
That last vortex message is about ten miles at 290 degrees from the 5:00PM EDT position from NHC. Granted, when you have a 45 mile wide eye, ten miles is still in the eye. Don't like seeing that pressure drop continuing. Does not bode well.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Oct 23 2005 09:55 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Eyewall and radar
|
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
548 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A
.. TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN HARDEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
SOUTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
SOUTHEASTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
NORTHEASTERN MANATEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
.. UNTIL 615 PM EDT
.. AT 548 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO OVER NORTHWESTERN HARDEE COUNTY...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15
MPH.
.. THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT...
FORT GREEN BY 550 PM EDT.
FORT LONESOME BY 615 PM EDT.
AT 545 PM EDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ALSO REPORTED SEVERAL
PUBLIC SITINGS OF A TORNADO ON THE GROUND JUST SOUTHWEST OF ZOLFO
SPRINGS.
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM! MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...AWAY FROM WINDOWS. COVER YOUR HEAD AND
BODY WITH PILLOWS OR BLANKETS.
for those who know radar:
http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/paulradar.pl?TBW