MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Sep 05 2005 04:39 PM |
Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast
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10:30PM Update
A tropical storm watch is now up from Titusville north to Flagler beach.
4PM Update
Latest recon fix shows TD 16 to be about the same intensity as the 11am initial advisory -- pressure of 1008mb, flight-level (here, near-surface) winds of 27kt. They'll be sampling the storm for some time to come still, so it remains to be seen as to whether or not they find anything stronger.
Some models have it dissapating (which would be nice), but I'm not so sure about that at the moment.
Original Update
Tropical Storm Warnings are now up from Jupiter to Titusville as the 16th Depression of the Season forms off the Coast of Florida. Points further north will likely come later this evening. TD#16 is not moving much, and may be over water for the next few days as it crawls slightly to the north and west.
Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com
It is expected to make landfall in East Central or North Florida as a tropical storm. It is moving very slowly and may take a long time to move westward and northwestward. The Tropical Storm Warnings may be extended further north later today.
The forecast moves the system extremely slowly toward the northwest and north northwest. There is some uncertainty, so it may make landfall anywhere in the rather large cone. Intensity wise, it is likely to hold itself as a Tropical Storm. However, depending on how slow the motion goes the chance of it making minimal hurricane status is there. The National Hurricane Center, however, is holding with Tropical Storm Warnings. We may have windy conditions along the coast for an extended amount of time with the current forecast track, with them gradually increasing.
Hopefully people won't be caught off guard if it stays offshore a bit longer and becomes a minimal hurricane, which is possible, but not likely at the moment. Folks along the east coast of Florida will want to pay attention. The forecast isn't certain and if it strengthens more rapidly than expected we could have Hurricane Watches or Warnings up by tomorrow.
Recon aircraft are going out there this afternoon, and we'll hopefully know more when they do.
Maria is a threat only to shipping interests and will not affect Land.
Nate may affect the island of Bermuda, and folks there will need to pay attention to local sources and alerts as time goes by. Outside of Bermuda, Nate is no threat to land.
More to come soon.
Report conditions from TD#16 in your area In this thread
Event Related Links
Bahamas Weather/Radar
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Jacksonville, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Spaghetti Style model plots from Colorado State University
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Emergency Management:
State of Florida - Florida disaster.org
Brevard County
Flagler County
Indian River County
Volusia County
Other florida counties
Maria
Animated model plots of Maria
Nate
Animated model plots of Nate
Ophelia
Animated model plots of Ophelia
Google Map Plot of Ophelia
Floater Satellite of Ophelia