Wednesday- 1:30PM Update
Ophelia is moving slowly north northeast this morning near the Carolina coast, parts of the northern eyewall are along the coast and it has slowly strengthened this morning.

CFHC Recording ongoing of Wilmington, NC Radar

Also a wave in the Atlantic east of the Islands, called 95L is worth being tracked as it has about a 3/10 chance to become a depression over the next two days.

Tuesday - 6:30PM Update
Ophelia has again attained hurricane status, now with winds of 75mph, with some slight additional strengthening possible before it makes landfall late Wednesday or early Thursday. The storm has begun to move toward the north, with a gradual acceleration and turn to the northeast likely over the course of the next few days. Stay tuned for future updates.

Tuesday - 10AM Update
Ophelia remains a strong Tropical Storm although latest recon noted that an eyewall structure was attempting to form. Convective banding has also improved and so has the outflow to the northeast.

At 13/14Z, Ophelia was located near 32.2N 78.1W - movement generally now to the northwest at 4 or 5mph. Movement should become more northerly by this evening. Minimal hurricane intensity is still possible - especially with the improved overall structure that is evident this morning. Continue to monitor NHC for the latest changes to watches and warnings.

Original Post
Ophelia has had a rough day - and, at least for the moment, thats good news for the folks along the Carolina coasts. At 13/00Z, now Tropical Storm Ophelia was located near 31.9N 77.6W, or just over 250 miles south southwest of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Movement is to the west northwest at 5mph - and with a strong ridge still in place to the north and a weakening ridge to the west, I'd expect that motion to continue. Clark's article (see below) covers the expected track, intensity and landfall threat areas.

Dry air entrainment (currently still ongoing primarily from the north) and sea surface cooling (upwelling) have weakened Ophelia and dissipated the entire central core of the storm. She is now a strong Tropical Storm with a low-level circulation center surrounded by strong outer convective bands and she is beginning to look somewhat like a subtropical system rather than a tropical one. The only tropical source of energy is the Gulfstream and Ophelia is cooling off a small area of that.

With such a large disruption in structure, I'd be surprised if she can make it back to hurricane status - although I'm beginning to believe that with this storm, surprises are the norm rather than the exception. While eventual landfall seems likely in the NC/SC border area, the long-term track is still a bit up in the dry air. Some of the models suggest that the approaching trough off to the northwest will not pick up Ophelia and carry her off to the northeast. It is still a possibility that the trough will only nudge the storm a little northeast and then east back over open water again - in other words we could be tracking this storm for quite some time (which sounds a bit redundant).

Folks along the North Carolina and South Carolina coasts are beginning to feel the effects of Ophelia's outer rainbands and should continue to monitor her movement and intensity closely.
ED

Clark's comments from the previous thread:
Ophelia reminds me a bit of Isidore from 2002, albeit for different reasons. Weakened storm that is still organized enough to be near hurricane intensity, but disrupted enough by external influences (here, upwelling and potentially dry air; heard a few debates on the topic today) to result in a storm with a relatively flat wind profile that, while moving into a more favorable environment, is not conducive to any quick development (if any at all). Expect the storm to come in near this intensity. I expect this storm to come in between Myrtle Beach and Wilmington sometime late tomorrow or on Wednesday -- a little further south of the NHC position is my guess -- before turning toward the north at a slow clip. Potential threat to the DelMarVa, Long Island, and New England is there, but other than high surf, gusty winds, and a couple-few inches of rain, it's nothing to write home about.

Wave out in the Cent. Atlantic bears some watching, but the upper-low in the same area needs to fill or move out before anything is to get going out there. There has been some model support for something and those waters are largely untouched this year -- in fact, the area east of 40W contains what are probably the least-disturbed waters this season outside of the SW Caribbean, though this is likely to form further west of there -- so it bears watching. Cape Verde season, which never really got going in earnest, is largely done with troughing taking over the tropical east Atlantic.

Waters remain anamolously cool in the Gulf and off of the SE coastline due to Katrina and Ophelia, respectively. It's still enough to get something going in the Gulf, but the threat for another big storm has been greatly diminished at least for the time being -- if not the entire season, as now is the time when air temperatures begin to fall and start to take the SSTs with them. Only 6 more storms gets us to the end of the list; with another one or two likely this month and the potential for a fairly active October, it's a fair bet that we make a run at the end of the list.

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Ophelia

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Wave 95L