6PM 2 August Update

The two systems being watched today continue to be the wave in the eastern Caribbean Sea (99L), and the area in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.

The area in the Gulf just hasn't organized much, and chances of anything happening there are still very low, but we're watching it.

99L Flared up quite a bit overnight , but has since died back down some, Recon made its way out there today and still found no low level circulation. However, this system's convection has been persisting quite well, and forecasted shear is expected to lighten up a bit in its path. '

As for the future path, A weaker system in the Caribbean tends to track further west, which would indicate more likely for a Central American, or Yucatan track. Most models are projecting it to continue moving that way, and I don't see anything to doubt that path currently.

Watch for another flare up overnight tonight, if this one sticks expect tropical development tomorrow, if it dies back down by noon tomorrow, it will hold off for a bit longer. If it continues to lose convection overnight, that along with the fast forward motion would keep it from developing and mainly make it a rain event.

Chances for Tropical Development of Wave in the Eastern Caribbean (99L)
Code:


(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
            [-------*------------]

Chances for Tropical Development of Gulf System
Code:


(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
            [----*---------------]

Original Update
The month of August has begun, and now the areas to watch in the Atlantic have expanded greatly, and will do more so as the month goes on, in fact it's already active.

Tropical storm Chantal has gone Extratropical and is no longer being tracked as it races away.

The system in the East Caribbean (99L) had aircraft recon check it out today, and didn't find any low level circulation, but it still has a chance to develop over the next few days. It has persisted, but not strengthened. It's beginning to enter a more hostile area for development, but it remains worth watching for several days.

Another system in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico has some potential for slow development, and should be watched for the proximity to land. It will likely enhance rainfall over the area. Currently it's just a trough of low pressure and would slowly develop, watching for persistence is the key here as well. During the day today it hasn't held together well, but we will still be watching it. Recon is tentatively scheduled to fly out there tomorrow afternoon.

See Clark's Blog below for more details on this Gulf System.

More to come as needed...

Chances for Tropical Development of Wave East of the Caribbean (99L)
Code:


(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
            [-----------*--------]

Chances for Tropical Development of Gulf System
Code:


(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
            [----*---------------]

{{StormLinks|99L|99|4|2007|2|99L (Area East of Caribbean)}}

{{StormCarib}}

Radar Loops
{{radarlink|byx|Key West, FL}}
{{radarlink|amx|Miami, FL}}
{{radarlink|tbw|Tampa Bay/Ruskin, FL}}
{{radarlink|mlb|Melbourne, FL}}
{{radarlink|tlh|Tallahassee, FL}}
{{radarlink|evx|Northwest, FL}}