MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 12:11 PM |
Hanna Moving Northwest, Category 4 Hurricane Ike Forms Moving West
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6:30AM EDT Update
Hurricane Watches are up for Hannah from North Edisto Beach in South Carolina to Surf City, North Carolina.
Tropical Storm Watches extend southward to Altamaha sound in Georiga.
11:30PM EDT Update
Hanna's north northwest track continues, track still takes it toward the Carolinas.
Ike has strengthened to a Category 4 hurricane. It will likely fluctuate in strength as it moves westward. Plenty of time to watch this one, and much too early to specify where/when Ike may go. If it were to approach the Southeast, it would be Around Wednesday of next week. The Bahamas will want to watch as early as Sunday/Monday, however.
6:30PM EDT Update
Hanna is now on the move, generally north or just west of north, and will start to move much quicker than it has been as it shoots to the north. Florida is out of the cone on this one, but the Carolinas will want to watch. It is also entirely possible Hanna doesn't make landfall after all.
Ike has become a Hurricane, and long range projections will keep it worth watching over the next few days, watching the model trends to see if it hooks Ike more up and out to sea or flattens it out to head westward.
Original Update
The busy tropics continue, Tropical Storm Hanna, still being sheared, is near Hati, and it looks like it may finally start to move toward the north and northwest late today. The system has weakened a bit more overnight because of the unrelenting shear, but it still is keeping together as a tropical storm.
The future track takes it maybe 100 miles east of the Central Florida coast, which may give some rain (the west may be relatively dry because of all the shear) to the coastal regions of Florida on Friday, and eventually move close to the Carolinas. Because of the angle of approach all in the cone will need to watch it. Of course, this also means it may never make landfall too, but that isn't as likely. Until a definitive motion is made, there is just no way to pinpoint it. Most models keep Hanna east of Florida.
Ike is still generally moving west, and toward the end of the forecast run things get a bit more complicated, the situation that will eventually cause Hanna to move north will not be there when Ike arrives, so it could go south of Florida (the most likely situation currently), into Florida, or Recurve, in other words, it needs to be watched. (Ike Lounge is here)
Josephine continues to show the signs of a fish spinner that will curve out to sea well before land areas.
Beyond Josephine a wave about to exit the African coastline also has a chance to become tropical later this week.
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Spaghetti Style model plots from Colorado State University
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations)
Charleston, SC
Wilmington, NC
Morehead City, NC
Emergency Management:
North Carolina Emergency Management
South Carolina Emergency Management
Southeast Radar Composite (loop)
{{radarlink|jax|Jacksonville Radar}}
{{radarlink|mlb|Melbourne Radar}}
{{radarlink|clx|Charleston, SC Radar}}
{{radarlink|ltx|Wilmington, NC Radar}}
{{radarlink|mhx|Morehead City, NC Radar}}
{{radarlink|akq|Wakefield/ Norfolk/ VA Beach, VA Radar}}
Google Plot of Hanna, Ike, and Josephine
{{StormCarib}}
Caribbean Islands Weather Reports
{{StormLinks|Hanna|08|8|2008|2|Hanna}}
{{StormLinks|Ike|09|9|2008|4|Ike}}
{{StormLinks|Josephine|10|10|2008|1|Josephine}}
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 12:22 PM |
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Re: Hanna Still Stalled, Ike Moving West
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Hanna is moving east as of 8 AM... near a whole 5 mph but not a drift any longer.
She is on the right side of the diving V shaped trough and the ULL there is scooping her up a bit
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-wv.html
Not sure how she could go west yet so imagine once she does bounce north it will be a hard bounce up as the models indicate.
I'm wondering really when this feature lifts out as Ike continues steadily west... possibly also with some southerly component later in the forecast period from the strong high.
When is this feature controlling Hanna since she was born, before when she was but an invest going to move out I ask??
| catadjuster |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 01:52 PM |
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Re: Hanna Still Stalled, Ike Moving West
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First post from a long time lurker. This may be a dumb question, but If Hanna remained an unorganized TS, what effect would the moisture have on Ike if he were to make contact with Hanna? Would it be more likely that the moisture from Hanna would fuel Ike, or would it be more likely that the cool water (that was stired up by Hanna) have a negative effect on Ike? Just curious.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 02:10 PM |
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Re: Hanna Still Stalled, Ike Moving West
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The center of Hanna is getting harder to find, and may be just doing a lot of relocating (probably further north), the large Upper Level Low is still taking its toll, along with the shearing to the northwest. It could wind up Hanna not making landfall after all, it's still "stuck" in a corner it seems.
I'm not sure what, if any, impact hanna and Ike will have on each other, they are separate right now. Ike is hitting 4.0 t numbers, so it may become a hurricane pretty soon.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 02:39 PM |
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Re: Hanna Still Stalled, Ike Moving West
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Looking at the models, it seems that they are starting to warm up to the idea that Ike might follow in Hanna's footsteps. Going to be a lot of sleepless nights along the coast for awhile.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 02:43 PM |
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Re: Hanna Still Stalled, Ike Moving West
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Massive ball of convection to the north where you mentioned. On the funktop it's bright red. The ULL is ventilating it I imagine or relocating or it should or could relocate.
WV loop shows it about to be scooped up but where will it go and how does it go west as much as the models show is what I would like to understand.
Imagine 11 am discussion will explain it all.
How does it get NW is my question?
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/previous/sat_wv_east-12.html
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 02:45 PM |
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Re: Hanna Still Stalled, Ike Moving West
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Tropical force winds with Hanna extend 290 miles,so why is there not a tropical watch or warning for the east coast of Florida?The same conditions should be in place when Ike gets to this neck of the woods,so one would think that the east coast of Florida could be under the gun with Ike in a few days.So much action to watch out for.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 02:52 PM |
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Re: Hanna Still Stalled, Ike Moving West
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Mainly because most of the convection is to the north, east, and south, very little is on the western side. Also, Florida is out of the cone at 11AM, but then again it's almost in the cone for Ike. If Hanna were to lean more toward the western edge of the Cone, it sure is possible. But if warnings or watches are issued I would not expect it until late tonight or tomorrow.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 03:05 PM |
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Re: Hanna Still Stalled, Ike Moving West
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I think the biggest news from the 11 was not direction which we can see but comments by the NHC on the growing size of the clouds associated with Hanna. IF this storm intensifies as they say and banding forms on the north and east side of the storm she will be a big system. South Florida would still be on the weak SW side so don't think watches are needed yet... but as you said we are on the cusp of the Cone for Ike.
I'd prefer Hanna ...
| Raymond |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 03:08 PM |
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Re: Hanna Still Stalled, Ike Moving West
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I would say, that the Low Level Center is moving NE. At least I could see it on the high resolution visible loop of Tropical RAMSDIS doing so for some frames. So the cyclonic loop indicated by the NHC may be correct. But with this weak center future reformations under stronger convection should be likely too. It´s still completely open, what comes out of this mess, at least only a weak Hanna.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 03:17 PM |
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Re: Hanna Still Stalled, Ike Moving West
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You're right. Ike is certainly better organized, but Hanna takes up a lot of real estate and could be pretty formidable if she gets her act together.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/vis.jpg
| kromdog |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 03:21 PM |
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Re: Hanna Still Stalled, Ike Moving West
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It looks like Ike may be nearing the Florida Straights by early Monday as a major hurricane. The ENTIRE peninsula of Florida needs to keep an eye on Ike.
http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/WTVT/custom/storms/ike_track.html
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 03:30 PM |
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Re: Hanna Still Stalled, Ike Moving West
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Quote:
It looks like Ike may be nearing the Florida Straights by early Monday as a major hurricane. The ENTIRE peninsula of Florida needs to keep an eye on Ike.
http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/WTVT/custom/storms/ike_track.html
I am also starting to get a little concerned with Ike.The shear ahead of him looks to be minimal,and there maybe a "tunnel"that could curve Ike towards Florida.Still need to see if Hanna will have any affect on Ike.
| Raymond |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 03:32 PM |
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Re: Hanna Still Stalled, Ike Moving West
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If I look on the track forecast of the last modell runs, it becomes more and more possible, that the remains of Hanna won´t see the US coast at all ( at least the center).
So Ike is certainly potentially more dangerous as Hanna! We`ll see ... .
| KimKeyWest |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 03:35 PM |
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Re: Hanna Still Stalled, Ike Moving West
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Very interesting graphic. I'm comforted by the fact that Ike is more than 5 days away but the track and forecasted category 3 are unsettling. Threading the needle of the straits seems improbable and, hopefully, unlikely.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 03:37 PM |
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Re: Hanna Still Stalled, Ike Moving West
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Its too early to say anything more on Ikes movement after the bahamas. Models diverge on the speed of Ike and the movement due to the strength and orientation of the ridge over the western Atlantic later Sunday into Monday. All we know is that Ike will be in the SE Bahamas by Sunday or Sunday night. Movement after that will be determined by what is said above or by something we dont see yet.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 04:10 PM |
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Re: Hanna Still Stalled, Ike Moving West
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Re: Ike (do we like Ike, yet?)That media outlet relies heavily on GFS and ECMWF models, and that one appears to be ECMWF.
On Hanna: by all accounts to the untrained eye interpreting visual data Hanna should be caught up in that flow around the large ULL to its north and summarily thrust NE out to sea. It is very hard to discern any progress in that ridge against the cyclonic flow over the western Atlantic.
Hanna certainly takes up a great deal of ocean surface, and IF the core could deepen such that it controls all of it, then it may be capable of becoming a "monster" as Bastardi characterized its potential two days ago.
Needless to say I am somwhat bafled by the dynamic surrounding Hanna which does not really lend itself to easy intrepretation.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 04:34 PM |
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Re: Hanna Still Stalled, Ike Moving West
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The movement of Ike in some ways will depend on his strength as he approaches this area. A strong hurricane as forecast would barrel through whereas Hanna who never got her act together totally wasn't able to.
Again...where will the upper level low be and how strong can Hanna get.
It's a symbiotic relationship out there between storms, upper level lows and the ridge.
A strong Cat 3 can in theory go anywhere it wants within reason.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 05:03 PM |
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Re: Hanna Still Stalled, Ike Moving West
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Hanna may have re-organized somewhat north of the last fix. I like Hanna at about 22.4/71.8 or beneath the growing ball of convection just north and east of the Bahamas. Everything seems to be coming together around that point and the whole sense of disorganization is now more consistent with a developing system again.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 05:07 PM |
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Re: Hanna Still Stalled, Ike Moving West
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If she re-organized rather than moved what does that do to her forecasted track and forward movement?
Makes a big difference I would say. Waiting to see if this is true movement and how she moves in relationship to the models and track guidance.
Still find it odd she is sitting on one of Ike's future forecasted cords..
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 05:26 PM |
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Re: Hanna Still Stalled, Ike Moving West
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Looking at the Caribbean - Infrared Channel 2 Loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-ir2.html
It looks to me if the center of Hanna is around
23N 71W
To me it looks like it is moving NNW
Looking at this loop and the whole picture, the "S"
look is starting to appear.
Hanna is growing in size, I think that once it starts moving
it really could get herself together.
To me it looks like the shear has relaxed, and outflow is improving.
Now looking at this loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-ir2.html
Wont the two lows one off of the NC (1012), and the other off New England (1004) effect the track of Hanna?
Your thoughts are appreciated.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 05:32 PM |
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Re: Hanna Still Stalled, Ike Moving West
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Well you can still see what should be an exposed circulation at the point where the last fix was after all. But....it is not moving and I think another circulation feature is beneath that convective activity just based on the overall impresion in the circulation .
If that is true, it seems to be moving NW and that would keep Hanna to the east of the track., but would also allow for intensification. If the exposed area is the true circulation center, then Hanna is still very ill and not moving much.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 05:44 PM |
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Re: Hanna Still Stalled, Ike Moving West
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Hanna is weak and the only reason there are T-Storms in the blow up is due to the interaction with the ULL. Hanna isn't creating her own storms right now as its under strong southerly shear by the upper low to her WNW. As the upper low continues to move SW, Hanna will have a chance to get better organized later tonight as she moves more WNW to near GrandBahama island by Thursday. We will see tonight if she can increase T-Storm activity as I suspect the current blow up of storms might fizzle some this evening!
| Raymond |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 05:50 PM |
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Re: Hanna Still Stalled, Ike Moving West
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Recon found the center just south of the convective blob with 21.5 N/ 72 W. Central pressure is 995 hPa. Strongest winds until now: 47 kt flight level/ 44 kt surface. So it´s on a NNO track.
| crpeavley |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 07:52 PM |
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Re: Hanna Still Stalled, Ike Moving West
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I was wondering what anyone thought of the 12Z ECMWF that still shows Hanna brushing our coast, versus all the other models taking her well east; in the past, hasn't the ECM been a pretty reliable model?
| TheElNino1 |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 08:01 PM |
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Re: Hanna Still Stalled, Ike Moving West
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The latest 12Z European model shows Ike not Hanna brushing the East coast of Florida.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 08:09 PM |
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Re: Hanna Still Stalled, Ike Moving West
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You are correct in regards to the ECMWF.....Lets try to keep the model postings for the most part in the Lounge. Things seem to be about to ramp up.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 08:10 PM |
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Re: Hanna Still Stalled, Ike Moving West
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It's a reliable model but still a week away. It seems some of the models are beginning to pick up a turn at various points either the Florida coast or east of it. It is still to early to tell.
| jessiej |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 08:53 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Hanna Still Stalled, Ike Moving West
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I attached a graphic that shows the tracks of Hanna, Ike, & Jo. It's amazing that in 120 hrs., Ike is projected to be where Hanna's projected in 24hrs; and in 120 hrs.; Jo. is projected to be where Ike is projected in 12 hrs.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 09:03 PM |
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Re: Hanna Still Stalled, Ike Moving West
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It is now Hurricane Ike, per 5pm NHC forecast.
| kromdog |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 10:36 PM |
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Re: Hanna Still Stalled, Ike Moving West
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Just as predicted with a possibility of a cat 3 around day 5. We will have to wait and see if around day 5 it will move more north around the ridge or be pushed further west. Someone may be looking at a major hurricane.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 11:19 PM |
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Re: Hanna Still Stalled, Ike Moving West
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Did she really stall? I commuted back home after work, took a shower and went online and got 3 emails that she stalled?
So, did she stall or was she never really moving? Was she relocated or moving?
Why did she stall?
This is getting important. Honestly. She has Ike coming on her tail now and this set up is more complex now than it was this morning.
Beginning to get a little worried on Hanna's movement for the first time today.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html
Imagine by 11 she will have crawled a bit to the nw..
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 11:29 PM |
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Re: Hanna Still Stalled, Ike Moving West
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Just to clear up some confusion, Hanna is moving pretty quickly to the north now, and if it affects land, it would be in the Carolinas. I'm starting to lean toward it having less of a chance of landfall at all, and I'm glad for that.
However the forecast still has it arriving in the Carolinas (for this one especially ignore the center line), and unless it redevelops a strong core, I don't see it getting to major hurricane status.
Ike may be a Cat 3 later on, and it's still open to either move south, stall over the Bahamas (Again, sorry Bahamians), or curve out to sea, or eventually into the Southeast. We'll have to watch it because it's still a week away!.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 11:53 PM |
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Re: Hanna Still Stalled, Ike Moving West
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It's hard to make out Hanna's movement. Thanks for clearing that up. All the models seem to agree so she should be off the Carolinas as Ike approaches the Bahamas.
Cat 3... did I miss Cat 2?
Boy commuting really throws a wrench in tracking. Amazing.
This season is truly going to be one to look back at..
Had it mentioned that if Josephine pulls it together down the road she should have some running room as there is some nice spacing between her and Ike.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 03 2008 11:56 PM |
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Re: Hanna Still Stalled, Ike Moving West
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NHC Special Advisory - 8pm EDT:
Ike Category 3 Hurricane - 100kt
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/032346.shtml
"SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT IKE HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND HAS
DEVELOPED AN EYE THAT IS SURROUNDED BY VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS."
See the link for the rest of it.
| Sheeper |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 04 2008 12:28 AM |
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Re: Hanna Still Stalled, Ike Moving West
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So on tuesday morning, i left New Orleans and drove home to florida seeing Hanna and ike (and that NOLA was in pretty good shape). The NOLA and Baton Rouge areas were a mess BUT there was not the devastation that we saw with katrina nor damage from a Cat 4/5 that we feared. NOLA dodged a bullet.
Though we do not anticipate a significant impact from Hanna in central and south florida, some EOCs are going to a level 2 on thursday nite......just in case. So i'll have slept in 2 different EOCs for 2 different storms within the same week. A personal record! Hanna should bring a breeze and some rain but i think it will stay curved on up to the Carolinas.
What concerns me more is Ike. Projections show Ike reaching cat 3 or possibly cat 4 within 5 days and in striking distance of a south florida hit. Still too early to know BUT Ike bears careful watching and maybe some careful planning....
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 04 2008 02:59 AM |
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Re: Hanna Still Stalled, Ike Moving West
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Ike is now a Cat 4.
Not good at all. My family is in Miami and I've gone off to college in Sarasota. I am still hopeful that it will make for the Florida Straits rather than South Florida.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 04 2008 03:05 AM |
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Re: Hanna Still Stalled, Ike Moving West
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Cat 4 with some strengthening expected. Ike could be a Cat 5 by morning. Amazing.
Could want to go more poleward with early strengthening...
Beautiful storm, have to say that. Wondering how his rapid intensification might change the track if at all.
Wouldn't a stronger storm want to go more poleward? we'll see if he takes that dip or not.
Either way... has to be up there with one of the fastest rapid intensifications in recent history.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 04 2008 03:14 AM |
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Re: Hanna Still Stalled, Ike Moving West
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It will go poleward if it feels a weakness. A ridge is building today (Thursday) over the western Atlantic near 70W and this will cause IKE to move WSW or even SW towards Hispaniola and Cuba. Eventually if he gets far enough south, does he interact with 1 of them? That will be the first question starting up cause if so, it will be on Saturday or Sunday.
| JoshuaK |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 04 2008 03:35 AM |
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Re: Hanna Still Stalled, Ike Moving West
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I have a thought concerning Hanna. If the storm accelerates to the NNE as it is predicted to do once hitting or brushing by North Carolina, then won't it's fast forward momentum help to increase the impact of winds on the eastern side of the storm? Let's say that the storm, for example, makes a landfall at Conneticut, Rhode Island, or long island. If the storm is, as forecasted to be, having winds of 60 mph, with a movement speed of 30 or so mph, then won't the right side of the storm have hurricane force winds in the strong Cat 1 category? It's something to think about, at least, that a large area of New England could be impacted with hurricane force winds even though the storm would be of Tropical Storm strength.
| berrywr |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Sep 04 2008 03:58 AM |
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Re: Hanna Moving North, Category 4 Hurricane Ike Forms Moving West
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Can you imagine what all those folks down where Hanna are thinking? They've been toyed with for days and look who's coming to dinner in a few days? How many tropical cyclones does that make for them this year? Mike's right; it's too early. If there's good news it's Hanna has stirred up the water down there pretty good and that should cool the SSTs in the area. If Ike continues to be a major hurricane expect a number of flights into the enviroment so the models will be given a better opportunity to get a handle on Ike's future track. I'm not going to speculate where Ike's going and how strong the upper ridge(s) are progged to be Day 5 and Day 6. It's a damn shame Hanna can't hang around for another day and share a fujiwara for an evening.
| charlottefl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 04 2008 05:05 AM |
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Re: Hanna Moving North, Category 4 Hurricane Ike Forms Moving West
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I have a sneaking suspicion that the NOAA Gulfstream Jet that's being flown in tonight is more for the sake of the global models. So they can get a better handle on what Ike is gonna do. Because before today the NHC already expressed high confidence in Hannah's track. I think they're trying to nail down the environment Ike is coming into before they put a point on a landfall location.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 04 2008 06:10 AM |
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Re: Hanna Moving North, Category 4 Hurricane Ike Forms Moving West
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We need some METS in here!Sorry for the short post but where the heck are the METS?We need some input for Ike.
As time permits they will chime in...
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 04 2008 06:54 AM |
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Re: Hanna Moving North, Category 4 Hurricane Ike Forms Moving West
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There really isnt much to say, Hanna is on a path towards Myrtle Beach-Cape lookout and will probably be a weak cat 1. As for IKE, we have a couple days before we can really talk about any landfall if any in the U.S. BTW the IV Plane was for Hannas path and not for IKE. They will sample the ridge in a couple days for him!
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 04 2008 07:02 AM |
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Re: Hanna Moving North, Category 4 Hurricane Ike Forms Moving West
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Quote:
We need some METS in here!Sorry for the short post but where the heck are the METS?We need some input for Ike.
Truly, there's not much to be said. Hanna has started to lift out, partially in response to the steering flow at upper levels sending it that way and partially in response to the center reforming near the deep convection. As this happens, the subtropical ridge should build in ahead of Ike, steering it to the WSW in a day or two. It appears that Hanna will end up too far away to capture Ike and recurve it between the US and Bermuda, leaving open the question of where Ike goes in the next 5-7 days. It's too early to speculate about anything at those ranges given the inherent errors and uncertainties that grow at those longer time ranges, but I will note that the forecast pattern at this time does not look terribly conducive for continued westward movement beyond then. Everyone from Cuba and Hispaniola to New England need to watch Ike through the weekend -- what is seemingly certain is that we will have a major (or nearly so) hurricane on our hands threatening land masses through that time period.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 04 2008 07:06 AM |
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Re: Hanna Still Stalled, Ike Moving West
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Quote:
I have a thought concerning Hanna. If the storm accelerates to the NNE as it is predicted to do once hitting or brushing by North Carolina, then won't it's fast forward momentum help to increase the impact of winds on the eastern side of the storm? Let's say that the storm, for example, makes a landfall at Conneticut, Rhode Island, or long island. If the storm is, as forecasted to be, having winds of 60 mph, with a movement speed of 30 or so mph, then won't the right side of the storm have hurricane force winds in the strong Cat 1 category? It's something to think about, at least, that a large area of New England could be impacted with hurricane force winds even though the storm would be of Tropical Storm strength.
The NHC tends to forecast for the maximum winds found anywhere within the storm when motion effects are taken into account. The strongest winds will be found east of the center -- recurving storms tend to have a significant right-of-track wind field asymmetry with strong winds covering a very large area -- and could well rake New England with significant impacts. But, it's not an additive effect; the forecast winds you see already take forward motion into account as best as is possible. (I say "best as is possible" as it is not simply standard wind field + forward motion determining winds; friction and other non-linear factors influence things.)
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 04 2008 08:05 AM |
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Re: Hanna Moving North, Category 4 Hurricane Ike Forms Moving West
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Well, the post-eclipse satellite images are starting to come in, and it is looking as if we may see Ike upgraded to or very near Cat 5. The cloud pattern consists of a clear, small, circular eye surrounded by a thick, banding ring of very cold cloud tops.. significantly below -50C and down to -75C. The eye itself is giving off tremendous warmth, by comparison. Raw T numbers out of CIMSS are already running 7.0, and this may have a slightly conservative bias as it does not seem to be honing in on the true center of the cyclone, resulting in a gross misreading of how warm the eye actually is. A new advisory much below 150MPH at this point would not make any sense, baring a highly unlikely rapid weakening phase between now and then.
Track-wise, Ike seems to be following along rather well, and for now, the official NHC cone as of 11PM last night looks to be holding up. The only substantial change I can see coming between 11PM and 5AM will have to do with current and future intensity.
| Raymond |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 04 2008 11:18 AM |
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Re: Hanna Moving North, Category 4 Hurricane Ike Forms Moving West
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They decided for 145 mph! It´s a pity to have no recon in there to get some real data (first recon should be tomorrow). The perfect conditions are about to change for Ike. You already see the diminishing outflow in the NW quadrant. Will be vey interesting, how Ike deals with the stronger shear.
And Hanna is really a miracle to me, because of how she has survived this really hostile conditions for quite a long time. Now she is also sucking dry air in her center and even the remote convection to the north is diminishing. But still she has a pressure of 989 hpa and max. flight level winds of 65 kt! For the future I see only chances for weakening, but nearly no chance for strengthening!
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Sep 04 2008 01:35 PM |
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Re: Hanna Moving North, Category 4 Hurricane Ike Forms Moving West
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Good Morning: The vertical shear mentioned in the 5:00 a.m. discussion concerning IKE appears in the WV as the western side of the envelope is flattening, and occasional indications of a N-S shear is visible. The direction remains WNW, and the center well established in side the core.
Clark's input from several hours ago seems to be born out so far. Hanna will have little effect on creating enough of a weakness over the SE US to really influence the solution in 5 days, or less if IKE does not slow down . There is just no way to accurately forecast the strength of the upper high building NW of the system, but by all appearances now, based on the visible evidence of its effect on the structure of IKE today, it may be pretty strong. If so, based on NHC assumptions implied in the 5:00 a. m. discussion, that would mitigate toward a more westward and southern solution. Lets hope not!
| Humanriff |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 04 2008 01:47 PM |
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Re: Hanna Moving North, Category 4 Hurricane Ike Forms Moving West
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This is an amazing picture.
Atlantic Hurricanes
We are surely fortunate to have all the technology that we have today to let us prepare for these storms. My mom grew up in Wilmington, NC in the 30's and they rarely knew anything until the storm was right on top of them.
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 04 2008 02:16 PM |
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Re: Hanna Moving North, Category 4 Hurricane Ike Forms Moving West
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Quote:
Hanna will have little effect on creating enough of a weakness over the SE US to really influence the solution in 5 days, or less if IKE does not slow down . There is just no way to accurately forecast the strength of the upper high building NW of the system,
What is the best way to observe the high in real time? Water vapor loops? Is there a particular satellite view that would show this as it's happening? I'm growing more and more concerned about Ike, and would like to stay on top of the always-changing situation out there as much as possible.
| PFSThunder |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 04 2008 02:20 PM |
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Re: Hanna Moving North, Category 4 Hurricane Ike Forms Moving West
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Great site with multiple overlaps:
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 04 2008 04:28 PM |
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Re: Hanna Moving Northwest, Category 4 Hurricane Ike Forms Moving West
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Once again, Hanna has shed more tropical characteristics and taken back on more subtropical ones, in their place. This change was noted in NHC's 11AM discussion.
A lot of dry air entrainment continues to hamper redevelopment of a convective core. Maximum winds have likely expanded away from the center again, and it may even be a challenge for recon to find a persistent warm center. They're heading in there now, so we shall see. Given the convective trends around noon, Hanna may be trying to redevelop a core of convection at this time, but again, she is fighting an uphill battle.
Not mentioned in any of the Hanna discussions out of NHC I have read thus far, dry/dusty air is hugging the east coast, from about the coastline out over the Gulf Stream. It might take a while for this to wash out, and it seems reasonable to assume that Hanna may also ingest some more of this, as it exists in such abundance, until it finally mixes out of the region. Unless and until Hanna can create a very moist, protective bubble, she will remain at the mercy of this less-than-ideal environment, and at some point this week she may yet become fully subtropical, assuming she isn't already.
The implications of a largely subtropical storm Hanna vs. tropical storm Hanna suggests that she can remain more offshore, and yet possibly affect a wider area with gale-force winds and perhaps a few hurricane-force wind gusts. It also suggests that it could take her longer than forecast to become a hurricane... maybe too long.. given her likely recurvature that could take much of her circulation over land.
Implications for Ike strike me as mixed. On one hand, I doubt that Hanna has turned up the waters in any very meaningful way should Ike travel over the same area. On the other, circulation into and around Hanna has brought in lots more dry, even dusty air into the region. There's still time for this to mix out, but already Ike is feeling some of the effects of downshearing winds on Hanna's outermost periphery, and it could be just a matter of time until enough of a kink in his armor opens up and lets some of the drier/dustier air in, which could trip him up pretty good.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 04 2008 05:53 PM |
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Re: Hanna Moving North, Category 4 Hurricane Ike Forms Moving West
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Quote:Quote:
Hanna will have little effect on creating enough of a weakness over the SE US to really influence the solution in 5 days, or less if IKE does not slow down . There is just no way to accurately forecast the strength of the upper high building NW of the system,
What is the best way to observe the high in real time? Water vapor loops? Is there a particular satellite view that would show this as it's happening? I'm growing more and more concerned about Ike, and would like to stay on top of the always-changing situation out there as much as possible.
The best tool that combines easy understanding yet comprehensive analysis of the subtropical high (and other atmospheric features) comes from the Univ. of Wisconsin and their Layer Mean Wind Analyses. Pick the appropriate one for the current/forecast storm intensity and see how it has evolved over the past 24 hours. I wouldn't use it for forecasting, though, just for analysis, as many things change on a continual basis. We need intuition and model forecasts to help us with that.
| banks305 |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 04 2008 07:34 PM |
Re: Hanna Moving Northwest, Category 4 Hurricane Ike Forms Moving West
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These might sound like stupid questions but..
1. Is it possible to have the 3 combine and make 1 big hurricane?
and vice versa..
2. Can a bigger one push another back or even diminish it?
| starwise |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 04 2008 08:00 PM |
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Re: Hanna Moving Northwest, Category 4 Hurricane Ike Forms Moving West
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Pretty cool site .... quite dazzling, with ALL the graphics
for ALL the current storms.
http://media.myfoxtampabay.com/myfoxhurricane/
Stay safe, all ~~~ I'm so grateful I'm not having to plan,
worry and endure these miserable seasons anymore.
Prayers definitely up.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 04 2008 08:13 PM |
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Re: Hanna Moving Northwest, Category 4 Hurricane Ike Forms Moving West
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It's possible for storms to interact with each other, sometimes they cause shear (strong winds from one direction) that blow apart a storm or hinder it's progress. Sometimes a storm can do a fujiwara sort of dance of sorts.
Some links to read:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwhara_effect
http://www.helium.com/items/959858-twin-hurricanes-the-fujiwara-effect-explained
Also, you can have a set up like the Perfect Storm that was written about in the book made into a movie.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Hurricane_Grace
In reality storms often interact in different ways. A lot depends on timing, how fast Hanna moves out and there has been talk that Ike might be driving/pushing Hanna a drop.
Hope this helps.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Sep 04 2008 08:17 PM |
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Re: Hanna Moving Northwest, Category 4 Hurricane Ike Forms Moving West
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Quote:
1. Is it possible to have the 3 combine and make 1 big hurricane?
The answer is it is possible. It is called the Fujiwhara effect and occurs when cyclonic vorticies get close together. They begin orbiting each other, and eventually merge. However, in the case of hurricanes, this is extremely unlikely to happen: the shear created by one storm is far more likely to rip the other one apart way before the Fujiwhara effect can happen. Further, even if it did happen, the interactions of the outflows and shearing effects would create a substantially weakened vortex, if the vortex even managed to survive. However, this type of effect can be seen when there are multiple vorticies within a single system during development. (thanks Lee-Delray for your post on the 2nd giving the name of this phenomenon)
Quote:
and vice versa..
Not possible. In order for a system to divide into two vortexes, it would have to first lose a single center of circulation and essentially become a broad area of low pressure prior to splitting into multiple vortexes. These vortexes would be weak, and would be naturally pulled back together into a single low pressure by the Fujiwhara effect. Any system that managed to split in the first place wouldn't be considered a hurricane anymore, as it would have become too weak to be such a storm, and the low pressure too undefined.
Quote:
2. Can a bigger one push another back or even diminish it?
The size of the storm doesn't matter, only the outflow characteristics and the shear created from each storm. This shear can (and often does) diminish nearby storms.
| Raymond |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 04 2008 08:24 PM |
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Re: Hanna Moving Northwest, Category 4 Hurricane Ike Forms Moving West
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You can say want you want, but it looks like Ike has improved his outlflow again and this in the face of quite some shear analyzed over it. Dvorak of CIMSS is up again at 6.4 (125 kt). Will be very intersting to see the data from the first recon missions tomorrow.
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 04 2008 08:33 PM |
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Re: Hanna Moving Northwest, Category 4 Hurricane Ike Forms Moving West
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Does anyone know why they have taken the tropical forecast points off the overlay at SSD?
Never mind --It just missing from the atlantic wide view.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 04 2008 08:55 PM |
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Re: Hanna Moving Northwest, Category 4 Hurricane Ike Forms Moving West
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He is an amazingly well put together. On all sides. The eye is in a weird place but looks amazing.
Can't think of another word to use and note that the models have shifted westward with the storm, most making a fast right turn just off the coast of South Florida.. maybe.
Just keep watching but rarely see a storm look so perfectly white on dvorak imagery.
Visible too.. I may add. Classic looking storm moving into our part of the world. Recon soon takes over from Dvorak to get intensity readings.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/vis.jpg
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 04 2008 09:36 PM |
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Re: Hanna Moving Northwest, Category 4 Hurricane Ike Forms Moving West
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It's hard to picture what a cat 3 would do to Miami. Think of all the unfinished hi rise buildings. Even worse if Ike were to cross into the Gulf and hit something else.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Sep 04 2008 09:52 PM |
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Re: Hanna Moving Northwest, Category 4 Hurricane Ike Forms Moving West
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Ike Photo:
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/?2008248-0904/Ike.A2008248.1440.2km.jpg
From several hours ago.
| MissouriHurricane2008 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 04 2008 11:02 PM |
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Re: Hanna Moving Northwest, Category 4 Hurricane Ike Forms Moving West
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Ike looks like he is going through a reorganization period right now. Skeetobite has it going down to a two before going back up to a cat 3. I believe that the storm will actually take a path that will take through southern Florida and into the gulf. I did notice that Katrina made a slight jog to the north before going across the Florida and entering the Gulf. But then again this storm is 5 days from any sort of major land fall. We will just have to wait and see.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 04 2008 11:18 PM |
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Re: Hanna Moving Northwest, Category 4 Hurricane Ike Forms Moving West
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Not to be an alarmist, but I decided to have my 2nd floor shutters put up tomorrow. Since they are clear and not unsightly; I figure why not? This way I only have 5 non ladder windows on the first floor to do if Ike looks north. Even though we have a full house generator, still will buy batteries and ice.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 04 2008 11:18 PM |
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Re: Hanna Moving Northwest, Category 4 Hurricane Ike Forms Moving West
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Perhaps I'm seeing things, but it appears to me that Ike may be attempting a repeat of last night... when it went from an 80mph "minimal' hurricane at 5pm, to a powerful Cat 5 at 8pm, to an even more powerful Cat 4 at 11pm. The satellite presentation appears to me to be better than it was at 11pm last night, although cloud tops are cooler in the western eyewall than in other locations within the hurricane. The ragged eye from a few hours ago is once again a perfect circle. The water vapor loops shows that shear has decreased over the western eyewall and that the overall envelope of Ike has shrunk (indicating lowering pressure?). I may be wrong, but unless shear increases overnight, I still believe recon is in for a surprise tomorrow, and may well find our first Cat 5 of the season.
It's a long way off, but I think a track through the peninsula is entirely possible.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 04 2008 11:31 PM |
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Re: Hanna Moving Northwest, Category 4 Hurricane Ike Forms Moving West
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Definitely made the turn it seems.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html
Look at Hanna also, her cloud cover has been pushed over Florida.. not the wind field but clouds, an odd picture. Looks more like a tropical storm within an upper level low. Just talking out loud.. but it looks less and less like a truly tropical storm and short of a strong cold front.
Ike just takes your breath away and big, bands are forming far from the storm.. it's going through some evolution tonight.
What is happening with Hanna... really looks like one big upper level low with a little surface area... weird wv
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html
| kromdog |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 04 2008 11:52 PM |
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Re: Hanna Moving Northwest, Category 4 Hurricane Ike Forms Moving West
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I know it is still early but by the weekend we should have a better handle on IKE. If this track holds, things do not look good for the East or West coast of Florida!