MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Aug 03 2011 10:32 AM |
Emily Moves Slowly Westward Future Unclear
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11PM Update 3 August 2011
Not too much has changed with the 11PM Official advisory, odds still favor a recurve before US landfall, and is the official forecast.
But unfortunately we cannot rule out landfall, from the official 11PM discussion:
"If a northward component of motion does not begin soon... or the track guidance shifts father to the left in future cycles... The thread to Florida and the southeastern United States will increase."
Emily may be going at another run of strengthening, in the last vortex message from recon, they spotted rapid tropical storm development in the southeastern side of the system.
A gradual trend toward the west has been the trend all day, see the forecast lounge for more details (Or the model links at the bottom of the main page).
Unfortunately for Haiti, they will likely receive 6 to 12 inches of rainfall, which is extremely dangerous in that environment.
The next set of models run (0z) will have data from the NOAA Gulfstream 'Gonzo' jet that sampled the atmosphere to the north of Emily.
There are no changes in the watches/warnings. A new full official update will come tomorrow morning at 5AM EDT. This site will also be updated tomorrow morning with new information.
8PM Update 3 August 2011
Emily Stalls again, or is reforming the center a bit east under convection, and is expected to resume generally west or west northwest motion later tonight.
6PM Update 3 August 2011
The official 5PM forecast takes Emily over the western peninsula of Haiti (the Tiburon Peninsula), clips eastern Cuba, then north Through the Bahamas. It remains offshore of Florida (closest approach point is Saturday Afternoon as a 60MPH Tropical Storm) and then recurves it out to sea, not affecting any US mainland.
Tropical Storm Watches are now up for the northern Bahamas because of this, and Central Bahamas have been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.
Odds still favor the system staying offshore of Florida, but there is considerable uncertainty past the point of exiting the Caribbean.
With Emily still dealing with a tilted center, and earlier in the day it was completely exposed. IT has continued to move west despite earlier official predictions. This trend still is continuing now, so things could change greatly. If the system manages to avoid the mountains of Hispaniola it has a better shot of organizing if it goes north of there.
There still is a low to medium chance that Emily will fall apart, but this becomes less likely the more it avoids Hispaniola.
It is likely to bring extremely heavy rainfall to the Dominican Republic and Haiti regardless, which is especially dangerous in quake ravaged Haiti.
It, unfortunately, is still too early to tell what the system will do if it gets past the Caribbean, so all those in the cone must watch for changes. If the forecast were to change much, Tropical Storm watches could be issued for south Florida. Those in south Florida were reminded in the 5PM official discussion to watch Emily.
11AM Update 3 August 2011
Emily's center of circulation has outrun the convection shield, and is very vulnerable as it moves west.
If it survives the next day or two it will enter a slightly better position to recover, and the current forecast track still takes it east of Florida, but has moved much closer.
If it does reach near Florida without falling apart, it will likely be on the weak side. The current official track takes it across the western part of Haiti, clipping the eastern edge of Cuba,
Then system begins to curve northward toward the Bahamas and clips Andros island, and then recurves out to sea. The closest point to Florida has it as a 60MPH Tropical Storm around 8AM Saturday morning.
The amount of rainfall that Hispaniola, Puerto Rico likely will receive will be great.
In short, the issue today is determining if Emily will survive, and how strong will it be if/when it exits the Caribbean. Until then, the forecast beyond is very speculative and uncertain.
Original Update
This morning the tilted core of Tropical Storm Emily has been moving west northwest around 14 mph. Following the national hurricane center's official forecast fairly well. It is expected to make landfall in the Dominican Republic and cross the very rugged mountains into Haiti, which has a good chance to disrupt or even destroy the storm. The rainfall from the system should start to arrive this afternoon in the Dominican Republic.
Assuming it survives the trek over Hispaniola, it is then forecast to begin turning northward toward the Bahamas, and eventually recurve away from land. Chances of it slipping toward the us still exist, but are not likely. By Saturday afternoon it is forecast to be a Tropical Storm in the Bahamas, well east of Florida. I then curves away from the US and goes out to sea. possibly as a hurricane by that time.
Parts of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina will still want to monitor the progress of Emily, as they are still in the cone, but as of now the chances of a landfall there are fairly low. Expect rough surf this along the east coast this weekend.
Mountains and Tropical Cyclones do not mix, and has dissipated systems in better shape than Emily in the past. The size of Emily may allow it to not be completely destroyed once it crosses, but it definitely will limit any strengthening. One system that did cross in years past was Tropical Storm Fay from 2008, it did cross over Hispaniola and meandered around in Florida bringing extreme amounts of rainfall The rainfall amounts from Emily will likely be very destructive to Haiti, with flooding rains and mudslides, any precautions people can take there are recommended.
Bottom line, things are still a bit cloudy with Emily, and official advisories from the National Hurricane Center and local agencies will still need to be monitored by anyone in the cone This morning it appears less likely for landfall in the US but it still cannot be ruled out. Haiti will likely get flooding rains, and until the system clears Hispaniola the future of Emily is uncertain. And the southern Bahamas should expect Tropical Storm Conditions roughly midday Tomorrow. Slight changes in intensity and the forecast track are very likely.
Beyond Emily, the African Waves will need to be monitored next week, but there is nothing else close by.
Want to read Speculation, and best guesses? Check out the Forecast Lounge.
{{StormCarib}}
BoatUS
{{StormLinks|Emily|05|5|2011|2|Emily}}
Dominican Republic Meteorological
Martinique Radar Recording Emily/91L Approach (flhurricane)
Long term recording of Emily Floater Water Vapor Imagery (flhurricane)
Long term recording of Emily Floater Visible Imagery (flhurricane)
Long term recording of Caribbean Water Vapor Satellite Imagery of Emily (flhurricane)
Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Tallahassee
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Aug 03 2011 11:19 AM |
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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola
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The latest round of Recon reports have been a bit south and west of the forecast model and track positions, so it appears a slight adjustment westward will occur at 11 (although not as much as you may expect).
Today is a key day for determining the future of Emily because, how and what direction, it starts turning north determines how much it will be affected by Hispaniola, and the eventual track. Because today is a key day, this is where most of the wobble watching occurs (Ie, north... no west.. no south...). Load up the recon maps (link under "More Recon", and compare it to the model and forecast track if you want to join in on that. In the past it's usually still been ultimately along the NHC cone.
Ie, what heading does Emily need to hit/miss Hispaniola, with the latest recon fix Emily is between 290-300.
The official NHC forecast gets updated at 11AM, 5PM, and 11PM EDT, for the times to check back.
| Cape Weather |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Aug 03 2011 12:04 PM |
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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola
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The latest intermiediate advisory states that Emily is moving towards the West at 14 MPH. What is the primary influance that will cause the predicted turn?
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Aug 03 2011 12:19 PM |
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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola
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It'll probably make the track shift west, probably over Andros island in the Bahamas, it's going to be a very close call, with odds still slightly favoring offshore even up towards the Carolinas. It'll be a rough beach weekend anyway. The more dangerous part is if it manages to skip west of the mountains of Hispaniola it'll be slightly more intact. (Right now Emily is a borderline Wave/Tropical Storm) and get a chance to ride the Gulf Stream a bit.
This poist would normally be in the lounge, but today is a critical day for setup this weekend.
In short, still a bit too soon to tell exactly.
| Joeyfl |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 03 2011 12:53 PM |
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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola
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Well I expected to wake up today to see Emily moving more WNW and it looks like its moving more West which makes it miss running over as many mountains, maybe more likely now to run over Haiti and eastern Cuba. I expect maybe some interesting changes if current trend continues.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Aug 03 2011 01:41 PM |
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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola
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Based on visible satellite imagery, the LLC of Emily may be running west out from the storm, which if this verifies basically means the storm would revert to an open wave, and reduces chances across the board for anything to form.
| Joeyfl |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 03 2011 01:48 PM |
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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola
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Yes Mike your right looking at close up of visible the low level center is running out from under the deep convection on due west track. This could change alot of things.
| adam s |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Aug 03 2011 01:57 PM |
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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola
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Emily is moving west and is being affected by extremely strong shear at the moment. The center of Emily is very disorganized. If Emily keeps moving west it will not hit the Island of Hispaniola. Emily might hit Cuba. The ridge is much stronger than the models had forecasted.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 03 2011 02:24 PM |
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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola
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I noted yesterday that historical data favors a more westerly track, in addition a weaker storm would head that way. Yesterday the official cone kept shifting east, despite the center being south and sometimes ever so slightly west of predicted, but as mentioned the system is not stacked very well, thus the center position doesn't give you the full story. Today Emily looks really ragged and appears to be running into more shear, the outflow has clearly been disrupted. The trough coming off the east coast of the US looks pretty strong and after hitting the mountains Emily will be firmly up against it. Environmental conditions are stacking up against her, the next 24 hours will be interesting. I had her survival at 50/50 yesterday and would bring that number down today. If she survives we'll be looking at very weak storm off the coast of Cuba, that when the real assessment of the situation will begin.
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 03 2011 02:38 PM |
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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola
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No doubt, Emily's LLC would appear to be entirely decoupled from any remaining mid level center ( or al least whatever extent of primary convection farther east ). Shear at the moment is having a real impact and inflow is likely restricted due to HIspanola as well. Will assume that NHC might keep Emily as a weakened and minimal T.S. for the next advisory, given the substantial LLC and the typical time it takes to "wind down"; that and the fact that there remains the possibility of refiring of convection close to the westward tracking center.
Beyond continuity and perhaps only a slight chance of short term recovery, I would imagine that Emily will be downgraded to a depression later in the day/evening. In fact, it may well be downgraded to an open wave by this evening, however that should not mean that this remnant vigerous wave is done. Some models still want to either regenerate the mid level remant of Emily and continue to track it across Hispanola, or that the remnant vorticity would still reform either south or north of Cuba in the next couple days. Even if the later were to occur and Florida and/or the Bahamas were to come back into play, the significance of this happening would now appear as more of a rain impact than from wind.
It would seem that barring some pretty unusual set of circumstances though, there should not be a major risk to the U.S. from Emily unless reorganization were to occur AND a stalled reorganizing system were to intensify from little in a hurry.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Aug 03 2011 03:07 PM |
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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola
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Repost of 11AM Update:
Emily's center of circulation has outrun the convection shield, and is very vulnerable as it moves west.
If it survives the next day or two it will enter a slightly better position to recover, and the current forecast track still takes it east of Florida, but has moved much closer.
If it does reach near Florida without falling apart, it will likely be on the weak side. The current official track takes it across the western part of Haiti, clipping the eastern edge of Cuba,
Then system begins to curve northward toward the Bahamas and clips Andros island, and then recurves out to sea. The closest point to Florida has it as a 60MPH Tropical Storm around 8AM Saturday morning.
The amount of rainfall that Hispaniola, Puerto Rico likely will receive will be great.
In short, the issue today is determining if Emily will survive, and how strong will it be if/when it exits the Caribbean. Until then, the forecast beyond is very speculative and uncertain.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 03 2011 03:30 PM |
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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola
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This was all alerted earlier 2 days ago that Emily will encounter a landfall in near 71W and move thru Haiti but have more Rain impact on DR.
Mike is 100% correct on the short term movement and strength will determine the future of Emily.
If she can get past 72W at landfall.. then she will hold her own or probably not go above 1009mb
when crossing Haiti.. but then the next thing will be Cuba.. does she run into the eastern edge or just
stay off the NE coast heading WNW-NW towards San Andros island on Friday
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 03 2011 03:56 PM |
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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola
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This looks healthy. Photos are using the same lat/ long roughly centered on the main convection. You can see the fibrous horsetail like cirrus outflow clouds around the western periphery of the main convection.
MLC and LLC split could explain the split in the BAM suite of models.
This isn't so healthy. Emily has indeed outrun the main convection. But the last sat photo is showing a buildup just NE of the LLC.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 03 2011 04:06 PM |
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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola
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GFS his hinting that the LLC will race through Haiti and off the NE coast of Cuba in 24hrs..but a new LLC will form from the convection as it leaves the north coast of Hispaniola. This could happen but right now, the current LLC on how it holds together after making landfall in Haiti will be the key.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 03 2011 04:14 PM |
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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola
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Either way I think we will see an even bigger split in the models, later.
It may be the 00Z run before we see significant changes.
Currently All of the BAM suite is on the SW side of the Florida Peninsula.
The right turn is reflected in nearly all of the other models.
Except the BAMD and CMC they want to go toward the Eastern GOM.
TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
1100 AM AST WED AUG 03 2011 edited~danielw
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 280
DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. ASSUMING EMILY CAN MAINTAIN A VERTICALLY DEEP
CIRCULATION...THE CYCLONE SHOULD SOON TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST
AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE NORTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN THE STEERING PATTERN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
WESTWARD... AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE GFS REMAINS ALONG
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINMAKER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...HAITI...PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT ISLANDS
| Joeyfl |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 03 2011 04:46 PM |
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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola
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Emily still trucking due west albeit quite disorganized the LLC looks like its going to miss Hispaniola possibly, unless this northwest turn happens by days end.
| BayCoGator |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Aug 03 2011 04:53 PM |
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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola
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Latest visible frames seem to suggest convection is starting to deepen around the LLC, particularly on the NE side. Also, is that a weak ULL between Jamaica and Haiti that's sliding SW? If so, what impact could that have on Emily's track?
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 03 2011 05:43 PM |
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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola
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If the LLC goes into Haiti its toast, but the problem this system has been having is dueling centers with neither the LLC or MLC being able to win over the other. The models I think are seeing the MLC winning out after the trip over Haiti and being able to establish a LLC at that time. Will be interesting to see how it plays out
| stormtiger |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 03 2011 06:42 PM |
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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola
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Interesting, the latest recon shows a pressure fall. 1004(ro). Emily is still fighting.
Visible images show thunderstorms trying to be drawn into the low level center of circulation, but the tops are then being blown off to the East.
Very good visible satellite pics, and a very interestign scenario to watch.
Will Emily survive the shear, will she miss Hispanola?
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/...ive_vis_floater
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 03 2011 06:50 PM |
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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola
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Weird crazy storm! When I least expect, convection is truly attempting to rebuild over the LLC.
Am also noticing some odd new surge of easterly winds suddenly shunting and pushing against the convection ( mid level vortex? ) farther to the east. Of course this could only help in possibly abatting further convection from firing up to the east and thus further thwarting inflow issues to the low level center.
As for the cut off low just north of Jamaica, I had not really noticed it earlier. It is quite small and typically might just be pushed out of the way by a significant system. In this case ( and given its small size and appearant influence ), I would assume it to not reflect down to the 500mb ( steering ) level and thus have no impact in that regard. Emily is curerently being afftect from what would appear to be outrunning its own anticyclone and is being impacted by the very southerly flow from the upper high presently hovering south of Puerto Rico ( and forecasted to move and expand northwards interestingly ). What minor influence the cutoff low dropping south from near Jamaica might provide, would perhaps slightly aid Emily's western flank outflow if the upper low does continue to drop to the south.
Also did notice on the 12Z upper air data/forcast, that there was some odd 300mb winds which seemed to impact some north/easterly shear at that level, while all along the greater 200mb southerly shear remains. Looks like the upper air 300mb issues abate in the very short term, and by 24 hours the greater southerly shear looks to abate quite a bit as well. Longer range ( 2-3 days ) seemed quite transitional. At the base of the current trough, there would appear to be a shear line that might lie north of Cuba and in between the building upper high to its east and the larger upper ridging expanding eastward from the Southeast U.S. On one hand overall ridging would seem to indicate better upper air dynamics, but a small weak storm without any well established anticyclone might fall prey to the varying shear zones. At a minimum, sure does appear that Emily ( or what is left of her ) may traverse less land than earlier thought. Seems oddly complex.
| WesnWylie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 03 2011 06:51 PM |
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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola
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This system is pretty much like all of the other ones this season - very complex. That LLC continues to head due west early this afternoon. I have been looking over the data, and in my opinion, it looks like if TS Emily continues westward, she may miss the more intense shear. Shear is forecast to slightly increase over the next 12-24 hours ahead of her, but it she continues westward the most intense shear could very well lie to her north and east. Very interesting system. I say that the NHC will have to shift her track westward once again with the 4:00 PM update.
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 03 2011 06:54 PM |
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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola
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Quote:
Interesting, the latest recon shows a pressure fall. 1004(ro). Emily is still fighting.
A 2mb. pressure fall?? There Emily goes again! Continuing to "muddy the picture".
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 03 2011 07:14 PM |
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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola
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The LLC is well west now (and SW of forecast), but some convection is firing up to the NE, while the rest is left behind (SE). Given its current position the models have shifted back west as Emily's decoupling is really screwing with possible plots. Half of them are now putting the storm over Cuba then into the GOM while the other half favor the original route between FL and the Bahamas. With all the land interaction in the way I can't see this thing staying together, but temporarily this latest burst of convection could wrap up and give the illusion of a healthy system. The outflow to the south and west have all but stopped. Emily seems to be running into more shear as the upper and mid levels winds in her (projected) path are all over the place.
"interesting" & "complex" for sure... clearly not an easy system to predict.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Aug 03 2011 07:32 PM |
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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola
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Dry air has been the main culprit inhibiting the support of convection around the LLC, and that is continuing. The flare in the NE quardrant was unable to be drawn completely around the center and virtually evaporated as it reached the west side. That environment is going to change however as the environment is supporting increasing moisture on the west side which is coming up from the south. soon the circulation may be more centrally located in the moisture envelope and further development may begin. This could then allow the system to grow in size enough to be drawn to the NW. As this is taking place the system continues more westerly than forecast, and the dynamic of the ridge in the SE conus is changing. One comentator I read a couple of hours ago stated the ridge is expanding eastward beyond forecast limits. These two issues combined may lead to a more westerly than forecast track for a while longer. Just about everything on this system is still to be determined.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 03 2011 08:33 PM |
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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 20:17Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2011
Storm Name: Emily (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 19:53:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°49'N 70°29'W (16.8167N 70.4833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 121 miles (195 km) to the SSW (199°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,461m (4,793ft) at 850mb
D & E. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: Not Available
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 360° at 20kts (From the N at ~ 23.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the WSW (239°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 17:51:20Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 31kts (~ 35.7mph) in the north quadrant at 20:08:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the SSW (207°) from the flight level center
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Aug 03 2011 09:00 PM |
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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola
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The LLC is still tracking nearly due West and is now well south of the 04/0000Z predicted position. Track guidance is inevitably going to have to shift westward due to this current movement. It may be a very wet weekend in store for Florida if that NW and northerly turn does materialize at some point.
| Lamar-Plant City |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 03 2011 09:04 PM |
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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola
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We can still use the rain here in Central Florida. It amazes me how these models do when they are fixed on a predicted curve. Most of the heavily curved models show that Emily SHOULD be moving solidly NW already....while it is in fact still moving westward. The curves just keep getting steeper. That LLC has shown no northward component yet (OK...maybe a slight move above 270 degrees....but not much. The next model runs will be very interesting!!!
| metwannabe |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 03 2011 09:06 PM |
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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola
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SATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE EXPECTED TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET...WITH EMILY STILL MOVING
WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. SO FAR MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...HAVE HAD A NORTHWARD
BIAS. EVEN THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS STILL REFORMS THE CYCLONE
NORTH OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF EASTERN HISPANIOLA. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24
HOURS...BRINGING EMILY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AND
THEN EASTERN CUBA. AFTER THAT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL
ASSUMES THAT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY
TO TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD. HOWEVER..
.IF THE NORTHWARD TURN DOES NOT BEGIN SOON...THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL INCREASE.
Looke like she is just weak enough to continue westward while having just enough flare ups to maintain it's structure, which obviously would have implications to track guidance..........this would be a welcome site for the parched SE!
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 03 2011 09:30 PM |
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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola
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I noticed on the last vortex msg that there was a greater difference in temperature inside/outside 4 deg which means it is starting to get the vacuum going
| Joeyfl |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 03 2011 10:19 PM |
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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola
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Still no definite movement to the northwest yet and if it does not start soon within next several hours the models need to be thrown out and just look out the window, the models are preforming very poor on this system so far especially those that are relied on so much. Its interesting to note that GFS is now taking weak low in towards southern FL. Lets see if some of the other guidance follows suite tonight.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 03 2011 11:16 PM |
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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola
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The first three fixes from aircraft were NW of each other (still very close to each other. The 4th one was almost due North of the first fix. I think the center has been pulled under the last burst
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 03 2011 11:16 PM |
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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola
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I believe we are now seeing a slight northeerly component in the latest IR AVN.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Aug 03 2011 11:24 PM |
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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola
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Looking at the RGB Floater Loop, it looks like the LLC is on the western edge of the convection flare up w/no northward movement evident. There might be a slight jog to the north, but such things do happen in the short term.
| Lamar-Plant City |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 03 2011 11:31 PM |
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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola
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I was just going to say.....don't look at the wobbles...you beat me to it. It can be easy to interpret a wobble of the LLC as a change in movement, especially if that is what has been predicted or is expected. It can bias you a bit. I am not saying it isn't a more northerly movement, but even if, it might not be the curving. This storm is a bit stubborn in its westerly motion!
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 03 2011 11:32 PM |
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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola
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It is impossible to track the LLC on an AVN loop, unless there is an actual eye, and there's nothing close to an eye in Emily. When I look at the AVN loop, I see the storm coming to a standstill at the end of the loop - no northerly component whatso (but not much in the way of a westerly component either).
| Lamar-Plant City |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 03 2011 11:43 PM |
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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola
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NHC 8pm advisory says that it is stationary. Just looked at the last of the daylight visible loops and it is quite hard to see where the LLC is now. Looks like the convection has caught up with it a bit. Could interaction with Hispanola be slowing down the LLC or is it disrupting it completely?
| metwannabe |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Aug 04 2011 12:03 AM |
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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola
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Very similar to what happened yesterday....LLC center either reforms under the convection or it "loops"....either way looks like it is "trying" to stack. With the relocated center would appear Emily could still cross Haiti/DR where models had been predicting she would....of course she has to move to do that.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Aug 04 2011 12:03 AM |
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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola
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It's probably recentering again, from the advisory:
Quote:
EMILY HAS MOVED LITTLE
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A WESTWARD
MOTION OF ABOUT 14 MPH...22 KM/H IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
There are some signs South Florida may get Tropical Storm watches put up tonight or tomorrow if it does move west again.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 04 2011 12:44 AM |
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Current Model Swath
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There are many models used to forecast Emily's track in the days ahead.
I went through all but the AP suite of models and the current results are below.
From left to right:, or lower to upper.
Xtrap-Current direction of movement
BAMD-Beta and advection model (deep layer)
BAMM-Beta and advection model (medium layer)
BAMS-Beta and advection model (shallow layer)
NHC OFCI-Previous cycle OFCL, adjusted
AVNI- AVN model Interpolated
AEMN-National Weather Service Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)
Note: The BAM Suite 5 day point is just off of the Western tip of Cuba.
Beta and Advection Model (BAM)
The Beta and Advection Model (BAM) refers to a class of simple trajectory models that utilize vertically averaged horizontal winds from the GFS to compute TC trajectories. These trajectories include a correction term to account for the impact of the earth.s rotation. The BAM is based upon the concept of a simple relationship between storm intensity/depth and steering levels. Strong cyclones typically extend through the entire depth of the troposphere and are steered by deeper layer-average winds, while weaker cyclones are steered by shallower layer-average winds. The BAM is run in three versions corresponding to the different depths used in the trajectory calculation: BAM shallow (850-700 mb), BAM medium (850-400 mb), and BAM deep (850-200 mb), known as BAMS, BAMM and BAMD, respectively. The performance of the BAM is strongly dependent on the dynamical input from the GFS. A divergence of the three versions of the BAM indicates varying steering flow within the parent GFS model. Hence, spread among the three versions of the BAM also serves as a rough estimate of the vertical shear as well as the complexity and uncertainty in the track forecast.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ssd/nwpmodel/html/nhcmodel.htm
The current Cone of Certainty from NHC basically splits the models. Using the models on the left or eastern side of the model swath.
Note. I'm not implying the BAM suite is correct. The suite just happens to be the best guidance so far with Emily's track. For the last several days. Please refer to Official NHC and NWS products and Statements for protection of Life and Property~danielw
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 04 2011 01:34 AM |
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Re: Current Model Swath
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But the reality is that is the forecast
It's an either or...she goes west until something pulls her north
or..
She intensifies enough to feel the pull to the north and moves towards Florida and then we see how far off shore she stays and if she curves out to sea and parallels the coast or slams into the Carolinas... or moves up Florida like Cleo.
It's really an either or depending on if she is finally stacked correctly and if we are tracking the low level swirl or her mid level swirl.... she's not perfectly aligned.
I can see.... her getting into the Bahamas (taking north path obviously) and suddenly finding her groove over the Gulf Stream
| M.A. |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 04 2011 02:26 AM |
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Re: Current Model Swath
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An impressive burst of convection this evening. I cannot tell where the COC is located under the CDO. I would not be suprised to see a significant drop in pressure tonight. Emily looks very much alive and well. the funktop looks amazing compared to a few hours ago.
| berrywr |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 04 2011 02:37 AM |
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Re: Current Model Swath
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(danielw) You're absolutely right...and discussions about Emily verify this. If Emily remains shallow...not organized expect a more westward track. If Emily gains vertical depth she will feel the much larger hemispheric effects of the east coast longwave trough and be pulled between the two subtropical upper highs. Last season the ECMWF performed extremely well...and is handling Emily quite well with zero north bias. My concern this evening is Emily simply isn't very deep and I see a 270 to 280 direction. I expect a continued shift to the left. Recent satellite imagery has convection over the surface center; however Shear analysis shows 20 knots from the west with the 200 mb upper high to the south of the system.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 04 2011 02:39 AM |
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Re: Current Model Swath
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Emily has split again... I'm not sure what is going on with this Tropical Cyclone. But it's nearly as good as watching televison.
I can't locate any satellite shots that would indicate the reason for the split/ bifurcation of the system. The little white speck on the eastern blue blob is a Convective Hot Tower spike. About two hours ago a CHT was seen near the center of the western blue blob. Which I thought at the time was an eye-like feature.
Do you think Vegas is putting odds on this storm yet? <img src="http://flhurricane.bamffl.com/cyclone/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" />
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 04 2011 02:39 AM |
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Re: Current Model Swath
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noticed in the last vortex at the bottom they commented
RAPID TS DEVELOPMENT IN SE QUAD
I think the MLC to the east is decaying, but then again, thats what it looked like last night too.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 04 2011 02:46 AM |
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Re: Current Model Swath
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I hadn't been watching the Recon reports, for a change.
If the Center reforms SE that would throw nearly all of the models in the trash.
Similar to a penalty for unsportsmanlike conduct. Half the distance to the goal line.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 04 2011 02:49 AM |
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Re: Current Model Swath
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I really Wish Dom Rep had a Radar that works ... I mean it's 2011 for heavens sake!
| M.A. |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 04 2011 02:55 AM |
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Re: Current Model Swath
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Im on the edge of my seat here, popcorn is in the microwave. I've been lurking here and watching storms for a long time. So far there is nothing typical about Emily. One hour she looks ragged and wavering towards being an openwave, a couple hours later, looks to be in rapid intensification. Vegas wouldn't touch Emily! Still all I can say is WOW, all the while scratching my head.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Aug 04 2011 02:59 AM |
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Re: Current Model Swath
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Repost of 11PM Update to the main page here:
al forecast, but they are quickly lowering.
From the official 11PM discussion:
"If a northward component of motion does not begin soon... or the track guidance shifts father to the left in future cycles... The threat to Florida and the southeastern United States will increase."
Emily may be going at another run of strengthening, in the last vortex message from recon, they spotted rapid thunderstorm development in the southeastern side of the system.
A gradual trend toward the west has been the trend all day, see the forecast lounge for more details (Or the model links at the bottom of the main page).
Unfortunately for Haiti, they will likely receive 6 to 12 inches of rainfall, which is extremely dangerous in that environment.
The next set of models run (0z) will have data from the NOAA Gulfstream 'Gonzo' jet that sampled the atmosphere to the north of Emily.
There are no changes in the watches/warnings. A new full official update will come tomorrow morning at 5AM EDT. This site will also be updated tomorrow morning with new information
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 04 2011 03:11 AM |
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Re: Current Model Swath
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Hello i do not post much i just read but i had to chuckle when you log in and see Without the hype since 1995..I love reading on here because good info and sadly a lot of hype.I mean the lead off f the 11pm update on here was the end of the NHC one.Also i do not think i have read a post where anyone says it may even follow what the NHC says only the ones of how can we make it go more west.
Sorry not trying to get anything going but it tends to get old reading posts of people trying to push it or will it to the mainland so there would be more action on here about it.
| hogrunr |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 04 2011 03:12 AM |
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Re: Current Model Swath
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Quote:
Beta and Advection Model (BAM)
The Beta and Advection Model (BAM) refers to a class of simple trajectory models that utilize vertically averaged horizontal winds from the GFS to compute TC trajectories. These trajectories include a correction term to account for the impact of the earth.s rotation. The BAM is based upon the concept of a simple relationship between storm intensity/depth and steering levels. Strong cyclones typically extend through the entire depth of the troposphere and are steered by deeper layer-average winds, while weaker cyclones are steered by shallower layer-average winds. The BAM is run in three versions corresponding to the different depths used in the trajectory calculation: BAM shallow (850-700 mb), BAM medium (850-400 mb), and BAM deep (850-200 mb), known as BAMS, BAMM and BAMD, respectively. The performance of the BAM is strongly dependent on the dynamical input from the GFS. A divergence of the three versions of the BAM indicates varying steering flow within the parent GFS model. Hence, spread among the three versions of the BAM also serves as a rough estimate of the vertical shear as well as the complexity and uncertainty in the track forecast.
Thanks for this info Daniel. This answers my question, but also provides some interesting data concerning what is happening in the steering levels when the models are split like this.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Aug 04 2011 03:21 AM |
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Re: Current Model Swath
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The number one question we get, "is it going to Florida?" The answer is odds are it won't and it will likely be a non event. We repeat that over and over again, but also state the fact that it is unclear, and what's much worse than hype is total abandonment of attention when a good third of the forecast cone is in Florida at 3 days out. Since several meteorologists sending me notes to not overly downplay it, along with a system forecast to between 50-60MPH winds that could be higher if the system misses Hispaniola, especially since recon has given indications that the mlc and llc are becoming stacked.
The dry air and proximity to the large island will likely keep it from gaining too much, but it's still mostly observation.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 04 2011 03:37 AM |
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Re: Current Model Swath
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Quote:
Hello i do not post much i just read but i had to chuckle when you log in and see Without the hype since 1995..I love reading on here because good info and sadly a lot of hype.I mean the lead off f the 11pm update on here was the end of the NHC one.Also i do not think i have read a post where anyone says it may even follow what the NHC says only the ones of how can we make it go more west.
Sorry not trying to get anything going but it tends to get old reading posts of people trying to push it or will it to the mainland so there would be more action on here about it.
If you want hype, you want wunderground.. every cloud someone sees over there will be a Tropical storm. Though the site is good for different othere aspects, the forum is full of wishcasters for storms to go to them.
Here you do have some real Mets the come on from time to time. Also some well educated in the field
of Atmospheric Science. There will always be someone that pops up and says something crazy, but in
general 80% here give out decent information.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 04 2011 03:49 AM |
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Re: Current Model Swath
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Well obviously that post stirred the pot more than I thought. I don't think that we have too much hype here. If anything it's to err on the side of caution.
The current Cone includes part of Southern Florida and that is cause for concern. This storm is anything But predictable and a bit of hype might help get the message out.
It would suit almost everyone in Florida if the storm were to become a fish spinner. Unfortunately we have no control over that angle. That's Weather and Nature.
Some places in Florida need rain and this is one way of getting the rainfall. Most of the folks over in Texas would gladly take the rain.
We now return to our irregularly unscheduled posting.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Aug 04 2011 03:53 AM |
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Re: Current Model Swath
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Emily on IR Satellite has blown up quite a bit in the last several frames, that mention in the recon earlier is about the area where the high cloud tops are found. If this persists that may mean some strengthening in the short term. It will be interesting to see what the next recon flight finds. (Around 1:30AM if you were curious)
| Lamar-Plant City |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 04 2011 04:12 AM |
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Re: Current Model Swath
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Ralph, just wanted to state that the main reason I come to THIS site is that for every bit of hype here, you get 10 pieces of solid meteorological information and education. Most other sites it is like 2 to 1 hype to info. It is an odd thing about us hurricane trackers that, despite all that we know about what these storms can do, we have this unconscious (or sometimes conscious) desire to experience what we track at some point in our lives and that can color the predictions. I must say after having cleaned up the mess after Charlie, Fran, and Jeanne that I am quite satisfied to get a near miss from a tropical storm every once in a while. Stick around here long enough and these guys will teach you stuff (and send you searching other web sites for info and cool radar loops). This is a low hype zone!!
As to Emily....she sure seems to want to come visit us in Florida and I am going to keep a close eye on her because of that. If I had just taken the forcast from 3 days ago as law, I might have tuned out and assumed it would get nowhere near here. Interaction with Hispanola and Cuba will tell the tale.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 04 2011 04:20 AM |
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Re: Current Model Swath
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I find the Navy site to consistently be the most on the money
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pr...ull/Latest.html
Really only time will tell when we see a well developed storm actually moving.
Loved his site...always have, always will.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 04 2011 04:35 AM |
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Re: Current Model Swath
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Without Recon actually for another 30-40 min from this post.. I think (and a guess) its alittle further west around 17.3N and 71.8W moving about 290dg. I think some convection is flaring around the LLC and west of the main blow up.
I'm probably wrong as recon will tell us anyways.
| Bev |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 04 2011 04:36 AM |
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Re: Current Model Swath
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Long-time fan of the site, I haunt the forums every storm but rarely post. I have to say you guys have found the perfect balance between hard factual data and allowing discussion by enthusiasts and professionals. Keep it up and don't change a thing. Thank you to all the contributors for your unflagging dedication to keeping us informed. NHC tells me what's happening, you guys tell me why. Love it.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 04 2011 04:57 AM |
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Current Location
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Let's see how close the satellite guys are to the Recon position.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 AUG 2011 Time : 034500 UTC
Lat : 17:09:00 N Lon : 71:07:09 W
That's in DDMMSS. NHC format in DD.MM would be 17.15N/ 71.10W
| IsoFlame |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 04 2011 05:06 AM |
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Re: Current Model Swath
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The discussion on Emily's development potential so far has focused on the environment above sea level, understandably so given the uncertain dynamics. I'm used to criticism for stating the obvious, check out the supportive upstream SST's:
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 04 2011 05:06 AM |
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Re: Current Location
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I don't normally use comedy on the thread. "But You ain't gonna believe this". Emily is blooming!
Multiple vortices spaced throughout the convection.
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 04 2011 05:13 AM |
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Re: Current Model Swath
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In a way, having so many knowledgeable people commenting makes it intimidating to post. That's not a bad thing. I feel like I know quite a bit for being an enthusiast, I just feel that I don't want to have my contributions amount to nothing more than an, 'I Agree with what he/she said.'
Maybe I should stop worrying so much.
Of course, (back on topic) with Emily there doesn't seem to be a good way to handle what the storm is going to do. I have little confidence in the models, and yet, I have even less confidence in any other possible track. It seems kind of silly to post, 'it's a storm, and I'm clueless as to what it's going to do.' In this case, I think it applies. Emily has been a very hard to manage storm for forecast purposes.
We'll find out soon enough if the storm had slowed down further (if it did, then the circulation will be more embedded on the western part of the CDO) is now a bit stronger and will start to turn north. If it hasn't then the storm is going to continue to confound everyone and continue west as a weakish TS.
As I said, rampant speculation, And we'll find out more soon enough.
| IsoFlame |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 04 2011 05:26 AM |
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Re: Current Location
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Awesome image! Looks like the core of Emily will successfully avoid Haiti's highest elevation (nearly 8800 feet) and the widest portion of the island's mountainous terrain:
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 04 2011 05:47 AM |
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Re: Current Location
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Further research reveals the green circle is at, or near the Center. Recon should be arriving there shortly. I am a slight bit concerned about the cirrus outflow pattern and the appearance of a few jagged edges in the NW Quadrant.
Emily could be consolidating and deepening.
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 04 2011 05:49 AM |
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Re: Current Location
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Those of us who have either professionally forecasted, studied and tracked tropical cyclones , or chased and filmed their landfalls can really empathise with those at NHC for the ability to remain objective and avoid getting "punch drunk" over the ups and down's of storms such as Emily. This storm really takes the cake for one of the longest ongoing Tropical Contradictions. This might be the first system that if a clear eye suddenly appear on IR, that many will simply question ...where is the "real" center!? Will be anxious to find what pressure, location fix, and forward motion from the upcoming recon.
On a sidenote, given the early 0Z GFS run, I cannot help but be somewhat skeptical as too "how much" of the NOAA Gulfstream data actually made it into the 0Z run. Would be nice to get some sense of clarification.
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 04 2011 06:13 AM |
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Re: Current Model Swath
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2:00am Intermediate Advisory just out. Makes perfect sense too.
The fact that most of us are viewing the various nightime IR resolutions and appear to see a ( or several ) LLC embedded within the bursting convection, that the outflow seems to be expanding, that Emily appears to exhibit a greater degree of rotation and all the while still avoiding land friction -
Only "this storm" would display as such, while meanwhile the 2:00am advisory lowest current pressure reported is 1006, thus a 2mb RISE from the previous advisory. We might just have to wait for another near "de-coupling" of LLC and mid level before giving up a solid 6+mb drop in pressure (LOL).
This storm is nutty, and i'm off to bed.......
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 04 2011 07:44 AM |
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Re: Current Model Swath
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I suspect the storm is taking the weaker and more westerly track. It just can't get vertically stacked well enough to establish itself. It should be interesting tomorrow.
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 04 2011 07:49 AM |
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Re: Current Model Swath
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Very nice convective burst. It is still very difficult to determine where the COC is in the CDC. It is hard to say what direction Emily is currently going.
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 04 2011 08:53 AM |
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Re: Current Model Swath
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05:00 advisory is out:
000
WTNT35 KNHC 040849
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2011
...CENTER OF EMILY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE ISLAND OF
HISPANIOLA...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 71.7W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSW OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCIS
VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.7 WEST. EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI LATER TODAY
AND MOVE OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS
EMILY INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA.
SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE
BAHAMAS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. EMILY IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
IN PUERTO RICO.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST...AND WILL
LIKELY SPREAD OVER HAITI TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY...AND THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/KIMBERLAIN
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 04 2011 08:57 AM |
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Re: Current Model Swath
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05:00 discussion is out. Interesting.....
000
WTNT45 KNHC 040853
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2011
DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT EMILY IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED. THE
CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE ELONGATED FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST...AND IT IS VERY WEAK ABOVE 700 MB. THE JET DATA
INDICATED 300 MB WINDS BLOWING INTO THE SYSTEM DUE TO AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CUBA...AND THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO
ABOUT 15 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ALTHOUGH THE STORM IS
PRODUCING VERY STRONG BURSTS OF CONVECTION...THE AIR FORCE DATA
SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL AROUND 45 KT. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT HAD TO ABORT ITS MISSION DUE
TO AVIONICS PROBLEMS.
THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE MOVE AGAIN...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION
A RATHER UNCERTAIN 285/6. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST
THAT EMILY SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR DUE TO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY...AS THE 00Z RUNS HAVE ALL SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT SHIFT EASTWARD
DUE TO THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY AND SINCE THE FORECAST NORTHWESTWARD
TURN HAS NOT YET MATERIALIZED. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO
BUT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND LIES TO THE LEFT OF THE
CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FROM 12-48 HR. AFTER 72
HR...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE FORECASTS EMILY TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERLIES...AND THIS PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER CUBA
WILL EVOLVE INTO A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS TO THE NORTH OF EMILY. THE
STORM IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH THIS FEATURE FOR THE NEXT 36-48
HR...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN MODERATE SHEAR OVER EMILY. IN
ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
STORM...AND LAND INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA AND CUBA IS YET
ANOTHER NEGATIVE FACTOR. DESPITE THESE NEGATIVES...THE SHIPS...
LGEM...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS ALL FORECAST STRENGTHENING. THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING DURING THE FIRST 24 HR DUE
TO SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION...AND THEN CALLS FOR GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING THROUGH 96 HR SIMILAR TO THE LGEM MODEL.
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII DO NOT REQUIRE A WATCH FOR
SOUTHERN FLORIDA AT THIS TIME. IF EMILY DOES NOT BEGIN ITS
NORTHWESTWARD TURN SOON...A WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER TODAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0900Z 17.3N 71.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 17.9N 72.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 20.0N 74.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 22.5N 76.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 24.7N 77.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 28.5N 78.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 32.5N 74.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 36.0N 65.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 04 2011 09:57 AM |
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Re: Current Model Swath
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Significant weakening in the last couple of frames on IR. Could this mean a more westerly component is in store for Emily?