MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 04:54 PM |
Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening
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4:35 PM Update
Ernesto has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm.
Hurricane Watches are up for the entire Florida Keys as well.
More to come soon...
2 PM Update
Official advisory still has Ernesto as a hurricane, but based on the latest recon observation, it is much weaker and being affected by land. With hope, the island of Hati will disrupt the storm enough to tear it apart. More information is needed, however. More to come later...
1:30 PM Update
Monroe County Emergency Management Officials have ordered all visitors and non-residents to begin leaving the Keys at 1 PM EDT today. Those in the areas should start looking toward state and local officials and local news media outlets for more details.
Original Update
Mid day Ernesto Update: Also see Clark Evans' blog below.
Hurricane or Tropical Storm watches may go up for the lower Florida keys later today.
Residents of the Florida Keys should begin to make evacuation plans for the early morning hours tomorrow in advance of the storm. Residents of the southern half of the Peninsula should begin reviewing their hurricane preparedness plans, just in case. Residents further north along the west coast of Florida north of Tampa need to begin thinking about making preparations for a potential direct imapct from Ernesto sometime late in the work week, and e veryone else just needs to stay abreast of the situation for the time being.
Cuba has issued hurricane warnings for Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Cgranma, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Camaguey provinces.
A hurricane warning also remains for southwestern Hati. High winds and much rainfall will cause a lot of grief for the folks in the area.
Hank tells us that the thoughts on Ernesto are almost a completely different situation than yesterday.
For most of yesterday it seemed as if Florida wasn't even in the 'cone' everybody always worries over..... today it's the most prominent feature there behind perhaps Cuba.
However, this is one of those situations where subtleties of the track and the character of the storm make the intensity forecasts close to useless. We are likely going into a Dennis or Charley type situation here (See map of all three storms plotted).. something with elements of both, but with some potential key differences.
Hurricane Ernesto appears to be a very small-core system. Systems like these can spin up and down very rapidly. Ernesto is in a very similar position to where Dennis was last year.. and Dennis spun up to a very strong category 4 as it grazed into southern Cuba.
Hurricane Ernesto does not have nearly the organization or quite the upper environment Dennis had, so while it may finally deepen (hasn't really since yesterday... 997mb is usually associated with a Tropical Storm) some before making landfall tomorrow morning, it probably won't be a major hurricane going in.
It also looks to take a longer, more tortuous track over Cuba than Dennis did.. and after that the similarities with Dennis may end. Dennis did spin rapidly back up to a category 4 after leaving Cuba, though.. as a note.
The similarities with Charley are that a trough will be stationed northwest of Ernesto and Recurve the storm... maybe over the peninsula of Florida, maybe into north Florida... maybe even across southeast Florida.
The storm will likely be a mid-range tropical storm leaving Cuba (note the official NHC forecast keeps it a hurricane, both are possible) with a disrupted core. a few hours over the Florida straits may or may not allow it to reorganize, so if it goes right into south Florida, don't expect much of a storm.
If it tracks a bit further west, say into or west of the Keys, and is not hugging the southwestern Florida coast.. it will be doing something like what Charley did, and may be able to spin up substantially.
A much weakened storm over Cuba may actually be worse than a slightly weakened one, because the tendency to get further out in the gulf will be greater if the storm is weaker.
These are just subtle factors in track here, but they also can make the difference between a tropical storm for Florida, or a major hurricane. It is worth noting that the threat of a massive, large wind field hurricane that can smash hundreds of miles of coastal structures with surge is out of the question. The threat for a strong hurricane would be one with a tight, intense wind core that could inflict substantial structural damage close to the landfall point, and maybe a ways inland from there.
There is something else a tad interesting and that is the threat of the storm slowing down, if the ridging doesn't decay as much as shown or the trough doesn't dig as much. The storm could potentially slow to a drift over the Gulf in such scenario... not strongly represented by any model, but theoretically possible. It could also move very slowly over Florida and cause flooding in places. The threat for a big hurricane hit on Florida is fairly limited to the west central coast up to the big bend area. the panhandle, isn't totally out of the woods and if the storm were to come up there could be facing a mature and dangerous hurricane.
Right now it doesn't look like there will be enough ridging to take it there. Places like Georgia and the Carolinas... the northeast part of Florida... would maybe experience tropical storm conditions along the coastline... maybe a little stronger further up in the Carolinas right near the coast if it were to move a little offshore and reintensify.
There will be lots of rain whether it does that or tracks inland... either way.
elsewhere.. Debby has just about signed off for 2006... the wave/low combo near 17/33 is well-defined with weak convection, but in a region of subsidence and marginal water that should prevent any development for another day or two.
Mild model support for it, and it already has plenty of latitude which should promote an early recurvature for anything that might form. Beyond that the Atlantic may very well continue active in the coming week or two.
Where do you thiink Ernesto will go? Let us know here
Event Related Links
StormCarib - Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations
Recon Report Map Plot
Guantanamo Bay Radar
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Emergency Management/County info
Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL (Naples)
Lee County, FL (Ft. Myers)
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL (St. Petersburg)
Hillsborough County, FL (Tampa)
Paso County, FL
Hernando County, FL
Citrus County, FL
Levy County, FL
Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Tallahassee
"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh
Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
St. Petersburg Times (Tampabay.com)
Florida Today (Brevard County)
Orlando Sentinel
Tampa Tribune
Palm Beach Post
Miami Herald
Daytona Beach News Journal
News Press (Southwest Florida)
Storm Animation of what a storm passing just north of Tampa would do to Tampa Bay
Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)
Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, will likely be doing his live audio show as Ernesto approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here He usually starts at 8PM eastern and runs until the 11PM advisory comes out.
Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is usually on the road heading toward the storms to provide reports and video and data from the storms. see some of his live streaming video and audio here
Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports from the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX (not affiliated with the real NHC)
Barometer Bob
Reply and let us know of other links.
Ernesto
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
More model runs on Ernesto from Jonathan Vigh's page
Google Map Plot of Ernesto
RAMSDIS storm relative satelliteloop
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of Ernesto
Debby
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
More model runs on Debby from Jonathan Vigh's page
SFWMD Model Plot
Google Map Plot of Debby
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of system
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 05:07 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday
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the 12z GFS is a real interesting run..taking a weakened Earnesto into south FL..around the everglades..taking it into the Atlantic where it intensifies, and possibly does a loop d loop..I can't remember models this way....
| SirCane |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 05:25 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday
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I am so sick of computer models. This has been the most pathetic job of forecasting that I've seen from the NHC. I just can't believe how much they have changed their track in just 2 days. Mind boggling to me. They did a great job with Dennis. It never wavered on their predictions. Ernesto is a whole other story. Why so difficult? I'm sure things are going to change again in the next 24 hours.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 05:26 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday
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I have noticed in the last several frames the has been a distinct westward motion, and a slower forward motion. A couple of questions/comments. I notice that the Bamm Mid has trended westward which might have more justification if Ernesto does not strengthen much and has significant interaction w/ Haiti. It also looks like it might miss the tip of Haiti entirely (center of the storm that is). Usually when they slow down they are feeling the effects of something that causes this...anyone got an answer for this?
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 05:28 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday
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Quote:
I am so sick of computer models. This has been the most pathetic job of forecasting that I've seen from the NHC. I just can't believe how much they have changed their track in just 2 days. Mind moggling to me. They did a great job with Dennis. It never wavered on their predictions. Ernesto is a whole other story.
You have a better solution?
In other news, it looks like on the satallite loop that Ernesto has slowed down significantly. What would that do to the track if it continues?
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 05:28 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday
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Quote:
Usually when they slow down they are feeling the effects of something that causes this...anyone got an answer for this?
7000 foot mountains may be too much for it to climb over. Seriously, it might be trying to find a path of lesser resistance "around" Haiti. I've seen it before with Jamaica for no apparent reason.
Anybody got word on the recon? No vortex yet
| nc_tropical_wx79 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 05:31 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday
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mandatory evacuation for the Keys this afternoon starting at 1pm (yes I know it's after 1pm now).
They expect T.S. conditions to begin Monday.
| RevUp |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 05:35 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday
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Topography and atmosphere --- tropical cyclones will always move in a fine balance with the environment around it. Ernesto might be moving more westward again in response to the topography to the north, low-mid level steering flow, and the strong upper level low to the north. If it continues moving more westward, it might be like Lili, 2002
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prelims/2002lili1.gif
| efaulkSWFLA |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 05:36 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 05:40 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday
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Quote:
mandatory evacuation for the Keys this afternoon starting at 1pm (yes I know it's after 1pm now).
They expect T.S. conditions to begin Monday.
What is up with the weather service this weekend??? Announcing an evacation order ten minutes after it is effective?!?!
The NWS does not issue such orders, the city/county/state does that.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 05:42 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday
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Latest (12Z) GFDL is a little to the left of the previous run, but still has landfall in the panhandle/big bend area of Florida. It is still not showing a recurvature to the NE at any point along the track.
Based on satellite appearances, Ernesto is not a hurricane right now. Hopefully, there will be some recon data shortly.
| RevUp |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 05:43 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* *DELETED*
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Post deleted by RevUp
| RedingtonBeachGuy |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 05:45 PM |
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Monroe County Info
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Here is the latest evacuation order:
"Monroe County Emergency Management Officials have ordered all visitors and non-residents to begin leaving the Keys at 1 PM EDT today. Floridians and visitors to the state should keep updated on the latest forecast information for Hurricane Ernesto via local or national media outlets today. Floridians are urged to finalize family and business disaster plans and supply kits today. Be prepared to act next in the event that Ernesto threatens Florida's Keys, southeast Florida, or the Peninsula. A quick and relatively simple way to get a disaster plan for your family or business can be found on this website's home page at www.floridadisaster.org."
http://www.floridadisaster.org/index.asp
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 05:47 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday
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In the last thread, people kept comparing Ernesto to Charlie. While it has some of the features (a recurvature hitting of the western penninsula of FL), it has a very different track. Charlie went much further west, crossing near the western tip of Cuba, before recurving back toward FL. Ernesto's track takes it almost skimming along the coast of FL. Land interaction will be much greater with Ernesto's "official track guidence" than it was with Charlie.
See: http://flhurricane.com/googlemap.php?2004s3-2006s5
| dredlox |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 05:51 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday
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"This has been the most pathetic job of forecasting that I've seen from the NHC. I just can't believe how much they have changed their track in just 2 days. Mind moggling to me. They did a great job with Dennis."
I understand you are upset, everyone is. Just to be fair to the NHC, Dennis was a very easy one to predict. That was a pattern seen time and time again with no surprises. This one is harder. I think they mostly do a good job.
About the intensity - dont you guys feel, given Katrina, Charlie and just about everything else that enters the Breeding Ground (gulf), that Ernesto's intensity coming off Cuba is almost irrelevelant to anything other than the Keys?
Katrina was severly weakened, down to about tropical storm strength, and a scant day and 1/2 later was one of the largest and most powerful hurricanes ever.
Charley came limping off Cuba and yet still boiled to category 4 in like 200 miles over water, and it was moving quickly.
The way I see it, it matters little if it's a tropical storm coming off Cuba. Given the time it would have between say Tampa and the Keys, it could grow to immense (cat4+) intensity. What do you all think?
| Cat 5orBust |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 05:53 PM |
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Re:center
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just wondering if the center is relocating. looking at the infrared, the red colors disappear and now there seems to be a little red ball forming east of where the other center was. anyone hae any thoughts? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 05:54 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday
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Charlie has nothing todo with Ernesto.....for 1 its not the same path..and 2nd the trough coming down is not as strong..this wont make a sharp turn.....For now..its how strong it will be when it leaves Cuba late Tuesday and where it leaves???? Also how much time it will have to strengthen cause if it enters florida near the glades..then might be a strong TS or min Hurricane..but if it stays off the west coast of florida to at least Sarasota N then a Cat 2-3 is possible...also I feel a track N to near 28N before any bend to the NNE...but thats 3.5 days away. Its just a watch storm...and currently I feel only a TS right now.
| darseys |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 05:55 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday
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this system doesnt have the potential to become a 4 does it? Charlie was an extremely fast moving small cane. this one appears that it will be bigger and less intense. Do all you experts somewhat agree with the official track at this time? it certainly has changed substantially over 24 hrs. wow!
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 05:56 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday
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Katrina was not severely weakened when it entered the Gulf... in fact, it was a very healthy system as it emerged since it was intensifying pretty rapidly before landfall in Florida and did not spend a great deal of time over the peninsula. It was nearly as strong when it entered the Gulf as it was when it hit Florida.
If Ernesto is a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane when it enters the Gulf, it will be a threat to rapidly intensify. However, if it severely damaged over Cuba and is only a weak system entering the Gulf, it likely won't have enough time to become a strong hurricane.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 05:58 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday
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This has a tight core..simular to Charlie...I know I said above its nothing like charlie in path and strength....but tight cores can really crank up...and spin down due to mountains.....
| nc_tropical_wx79 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 05:59 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday
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Is the center reforming and if not what is going on with Ernesto? I believe I see the center reforming I want to say to the NE of where it is located now. Any opinions to add?
| RedingtonBeachGuy |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 05:59 PM |
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Forum Rules Reminder
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this forum is meant for discussion of the hurricane's track and forecast, as
well as critical information about impacts and real emergency-type info. You
can use this forum to make forecasts if you explain your reasoning or
support your ideas with evidence... otherwise it goes in the forecast
lounge. Comments about the official hurricane statements, discussion about
what's going on with the hurricane, reports about local storm impacts, and
the like are perfectly OK here. If the post you're making is one line of
superfluous information or not relevant or just chat-room banter, it doesn't
belong here. i.e. everybody expects that the schools are going to be shut
down on the peninsula tomorrow.. it's just depressing at seeing how slow and
boneheaded local government can be somtimes. comments that can be reduced to
'what?' or 'you think?' or 'i agree' aren't necessary. No amount of smiley
faces make them interesting. Alarmist posts like 'it's going to cat 5' or
'we're all going to die!!!' aren't welcome either.
The site is built so that you can go to other forums for other discussion,
or use PM to talk to individuals if what you're saying isn't directed at an
individual (uncalled-for snide remarks about other people who post here
aren't going to last on the main board either). When there's lots of
traffic, i.e. we have a hurricane event, lots of folks unfamiliar with the
board rules tend to clutter the main forum up with non-relevant discussion.
Please read the forum rules before posting so that you can keep your
comments on topic. it makes the forum run and read better, and keeps the
mods from being busy editing all the time.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 06:00 PM |
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Re:center
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I was just getting ready to post that it looks like its reforming west away from Haiti. Glad its not my eyes playin tricks on me and someone else is noticing it. Isn't it about time for a new recon report?
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 06:00 PM |
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Re: Forum Rules Reminder
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Is it weakening now ? Pressure is now 1002mb as of 2pm
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 06:02 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday
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LOOKING AT SEVERAL MAPS IT SEEMS TO ME THAT ERNESTO IS OVER HAITI RIGHT NOW, ALSO THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE REALLY BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND KIND OF SPREAD OUT, THERE ALMOST KIND OF ELONGATED... ANY THOUGHTS ON THIS???
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 06:03 PM |
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Re: Forum Rules Reminder
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New recon:
053
URNT12 KNHC 271756
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/17:54:50Z
B. 17 deg 45 min N
073 deg 52 min W
C. 700 mb 3143 m
D. 35 kt Note: Max estimated surface wind speed
E. 135 deg 015 nm
F. 186 deg 030 kt
G. 136 deg 075 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb Note: estimated surface pressure
I. 10 C/ 3046 m
J. 14 C/ 3052 m
K. 3 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12 45/ 7
O. 0.02 / 10 nm
P. AF302 0605A ERNESTO OB 07
MAX FL WIND 30 KT SE QUAD 16:49:20 Z
SFC CNTR 191 / 21 NM FROM FL CNTR
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
RADAR BANDING EVIDENT
;
Edit: Added comments on meanings of some items
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 06:05 PM |
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Re:center
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looks like it's weakened a good bit. hmmm... maybe some harsh land interaction going on. eastern cuba can do the same sort of thing... but the western part is just hilly and not all that harsh.
might be that the ridging hasn't built very well over ernesto, either. right now there's still a bit of a shear axis extending up to the not-so-strong upper vorticity north of hispaniola, east of florida.
a lot of the dynamic guidance is still leaning well west of florida. that comes more in to play if ernesto spins down a good bit.
the relationship to charley i mentioned earlier.. only comes into play if we have a small-core system moving off the w. coast of florida. the differences in the upper synoptic pattern have been noted before.
HF 1805z27august
the recon data... wow, wonder if the center jumped again... or is trying to as we speak. definitely not the center of a hurricane, that vortex msg. -HF
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 06:09 PM |
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Re: Forum Rules Reminder
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The mountains are wrecking havoc on Ernesto right now. He is going to be a very difficult storm to forecast. Such a small storm getting the amount of disruption that it is getting will make any guess on future intensification just that, a guess. Does a weakened Ernesto pull further north and only be a cat 1 threat max or will he skim along south of Cuba before crossing and get better organized? I suspect Ernesto will be downgraded at 5:00. Probably will not be far enough away from the mountains. If we are lucky, it disrupts him to the point that he won't recover.
| WeatherNLU |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 06:13 PM |
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Re: Major Hurricane Ernesto to Hit Near Sarasota, FL
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Right now I see a storm that is falling apart. It did not look like the center went over land, although the exact center of this thing has been hard to pinpoint from the outset.
Regardless, this is the best news anyone could have hoped for. On IR, Ernesto is contracting quickly. Now what happens from here remains to be seen, but any weakening is welcome!
Note: According to the latest vortex, the pressure is up to 1007 and the max flight level wind found was 30KT. Obviously no longer a hurricane, and merely a weak tropical storm at those levels.
| HurryCaneForm |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 06:15 PM |
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Re: Forum Rules Reminder
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This could be some really good news for us folks of the Gulf Coast... 1002 mb of pressure doesn't even support a Hurricane so I think it is a TS by now and the interaction with land of Haiti might be degrading this storm and an important note also... Eastern part of Cuba can really kill this storm down... If it takes a more easterly track, Ernesto would actually be facing high mountainous areas of that part of Cuba and could probably kill itself there. If it takes a more westerly track, then we haven't heard the last of it... Hopefully it dies down...
| SirCane |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 06:17 PM |
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Re: Forum Rules Reminder
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It seems like it's moving more to the West now than it was earlier.
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 06:19 PM |
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Is Ernesto pulling an "Ernesto"?
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Does look like Ernesto is weakening substantially attm. I'm really not quite sure what to say about this storm. Up and down, up and down. I'll reserve any judgement until it gets past Haiti and eastern Cuba.
If it can make it, that is.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 06:21 PM |
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Re: Forum Rules Reminder
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Quote:
It seems like it's moving more to the West now than it was earlier.
From what I can tell it's a bit north of the track, the center isn't exactly all that easy to spot. It's just south of the western tip of Hati, and probably will cross it there. It's a bit weaker. Some convection fired off to the west, but that wasn't the center of circulation.
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 06:21 PM |
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Re: Forum Rules Reminder
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It is weakening, but I think this is temporary...the GFDL model has been the first to respond to shifts in Ernesto..It was the first to recognize the weakness and move the track east...BUT..What gives with this Northwest motion LATE in the run..the exact opposite of all the models..could it see the slowing as the potential for a ridge to build 5-6 days out ???? I was very surprised when it went east, now this has me perplexed. I know it is only 1 model, but it has been about 60% on so far, the best of the models I think
| ltpat228 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 06:23 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday
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Related to the below link, would someone please explain what the brown area means near Lake Okeechobee to the east coast? The rest of Florida shows green yet my area is brown. Does this mean we'll get higher winds here on the east coast?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/180213.shtml?hwindloop?
| dolfinatic |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 06:24 PM |
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Re: Is Ernesto pulling an "Ernesto"?
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I think we all need to temper our enthusiasm about this storm falling apart. i think alot of the reason for the weakening at the moment is that the large area of convection to its east is being disrupted by the mountains and not letting it wrap around Ernesto. i think once the storm clears haiti later this evening it will be able to wrap it all in and we will be looking at a hurricane again. if the westward wobble is truly happening this may speed up the process and it will strengthen sooner. JMO though.
| Cash |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 06:26 PM |
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GFDL consistency
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I don't have a good link to show run to run consistency, but it seems to my untrained eye that the GFDL has been much more stable over the past 24 hrs than any of the other models. Particularly given its reputation of relative reliability, I'm surprised that the course it has charted for Ern is not being more favored by the NHC.
Of course, this may all be moot given the new recon report. If the storm's as weak as that last vortex message implies, modeling and forecasting might have just been thrown another perplexing loop.
Cash
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 06:29 PM |
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Re: Major Hurricane Ernesto to Hit Near Sarasota, FL
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Based on that recon alone, it would struggle to even qualify as a tropical storm, but the plane hasn't been in there for long and it may be in the process of reorganizing again. Regardless, this throws another monkey wrench into an already difficult forecast. This at least is a positive development. If it does not recover significantly from this weakened state and ends up spending a lot of time over Cuba, it may not even survive to reach the Gulf.
Basically, at this point, any intensity scenario from a major hurricane (in the Gulf) down to dissipation (if it spends too much time near/over Haiti and Cuba) is within the realm of realistic probability. That makes the track forecast even more crucial, which makes things difficult because the intensity of the system may have some bearing on its track. Needless to say, there is going to be a lot of uncertainty with the next set of forecasts.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 06:31 PM |
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Re: Forum Rules Reminder
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I believe we are seeing the early forecasting wobbles that occur from one run to the next and I think that the models are covering the bases on all the possibilities. I believe I am starting to recognize data that has been collected over the years from some of the strange upper level conditions that we have had in past forecasting years. I think the models may be including those de-coupling runs and some of the Charley, Wilma, and Katrina moments. Not the disasters themselves but the odd little twist and turns that occured while tracking those storms. They may be thrown out after the storm gets clear of Cuba, but I think if one could anthropomorphize with the models, they are expecting something quite "funky" to happen with this storm.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 06:39 PM |
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Re:center
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Re: Charley comparisons
While Ernesto may have a relatively moderately-sized sphere of associated convection, his actual core is relatively small - and simply not that fully-developed, as we have seen with so very many recenterings over the course of several days now.
The things to watch for - that also make his forecast such a particularly very complicated one:
Smaller cores can spin up and spin down somewhat rapidly. This sometimes includes extremes of both sides - from rapid deepening into a high-end major hurricane on the upper end, to rapid unraveling into an open wave on the other.
Right now we are seeing the spin down - Smaller cores do not do as well traversing land masses, as a far greater percentage of them are impacted by the topography, as well as not over the water.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 06:43 PM |
|
Re: Forum Rules Reminder
|
Guppie,
Just curious - what do you mean when you say "funky?"
I'm in N. Palm Beach County, and this thing keeps turning right... going to gas up tomorrow and hubby's going grocery shopping with an eye on the storm (pun intended).
TIA -
Zanne
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 06:44 PM |
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Re:center
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It looks to my naked eye that the center has reformed farther east and is over the peninsula right now...thoughts?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
| madmumbler |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 06:45 PM |
|
|
Re:center
|
Quote:
Re: Charlie comparisons
While Ernesto may have a relatively moderate sphere of associated convection, his actual core is relatively small - and simply not that fully-developed, as we have seen with so very many recenterings over the course of several days now.
The things to watch for - that also make his forecast such a particularly very complicated one:
Smaller cores can spin up and spin down somewhat rapidly. This sometimes includes extremes of both sides - from rapid deepening into a high-end major hurricane on the upper end, to rapid unraveling into an open wave on the other.
Right now we are seeing the spin down - Smaller cores do not do as well traversing land masses, as a far greater percentage of them are impacted by the topography, as well as not over the water.
The problem is when/if it makes it over Cuba it's like sending it into a convection oven with the SSTs we're looking at. If it's got any kind of meat left to it once it crosses, it might not take much to fire it up again. Or it could fall apart.
I would feel a lot better if this thing came off Cuba further to the west than they're projecting as of 2pm. Right now, the track is so close to the coast it's nearly impossible to predict where landfall will be.
Big storms can do a lot more damage but at least they're a little more "predictable" in terms of trying to figure out where they're going. These smaller storms, they're nearly impossible to predict with any degree of accuracy.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 06:50 PM |
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Re:center
|
Quote:
Right now we are seeing the spin down - Smaller cores do not do as well traversing land masses, as a far greater percentage of them are impacted by the topography, as well as not over the water.
True, but look at the last two IR images and you'll see that Ernesto is not done fighting yet. Deep convection has rebuilt over the COC. That indicates that the vortex is back offshore, to me anyway.
| nc_tropical_wx79 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 06:52 PM |
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Re:center
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Would the center reform right over land? If it is doing that would that lead to a weak/weaker system since it's being cut off from the water? Or is it an illusion and not really reforming because it's so weak and unorganized?
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 06:56 PM |
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Re:center
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a 1002 mb Ernesto changes the game..it may take the models a while ton get an accurate grip on this..the storm is not moving much..sitting just south of Haiti...we may need to start from scratch here.. if the last recon is accurate..a weak storm may not be influeneced as much by the weakness up north...we may be dealing with Ernesto for a long time...As mentioned earlier..the NOAA aircraft on Monday will really help the models
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 06:59 PM |
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Re:center
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hmm more models trending an east coast situation with Ernest. tampa may be able to breathe a bit there but as for me in Palm Coast, FL... not good. I'm on the east coast. If Ernesto keeps the pace to the nw then Miami is gonna be first in line then Daytona. Something that really bears watching for what we can consider rough days ahead.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 07:04 PM |
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Model Runs & Consistency
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We need to remember that we are looking at model runs going out 3-5 days and that there will be changes in the model runs. It is possible that some of the models may not be picking up on the system that is *predicted* to come from the NW US. Some of them may be underdoing or overdoing the strength of the storm system coming down from the Rockies, some may not be recognizing the ridge of high pressure; etc. Models are only as good as the information put into them and it's also important to remember that storms have a mind of their own at times and do things that the models don't / can't predict.
We knew that Ernesto would be interacting with Hispaniola and that this would probably weaken him in the short term. The shear to the west is moving now and I expect that once he is free from Hispaniola, we may see him regain strength quickly. I do not think that Jamaica will affect him that much, as it is just a tiny island.
I would not go so far as to predict the demise of Ernesto at this point in time just because he is interacting with land. It looks to me as if he is already trying to intensify and is moving in a westerly fashion -- this could be because the ridge of high pressure is pushing him that way. That was also predicted -- at least as far as I know.
I distinctly remember with Frances and Jeanne that most of the models did not pick up on the feature that slammed the door shut for those two storms to skirt the east coast of Florida until very late in the forecast.
For those of you that are new to the website and/or watching hurricanes, keep this in mind: you will see wobbles, track shifts to the left, right, etc. The most important thing to remember is that forecasting a hurricane is far from perfect because of the things mentioned above. The NHC does a great job and the reason the cone is there is because there are going to be shifts. The closer we get to landfall, the more reliable the track becomes. Even AT the time of landfall it can jump to the left or right, making a huge difference in who feels what impacts.
Keep paying close attention to what the storm is doing and if you are in or near the cone, continue preparing.
One note: the mandatory evacuation in the Keys is for VISITORS only at this time.
| tornado00 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 07:12 PM |
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Re: Model Runs & Consistency
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Once the center, which seems to be just on the skirts of that little spit of land coming off the left side of Haiti and into that open water between Hispanola and Cuba, think it'll get some steam going again from there. Then, once it crosses Cuba, its anybody's guess on what happens.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 07:16 PM |
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Re: Model Runs & Consistency
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in the last vortex i saw this was the most important information so far
MAX FL WIND 30 KT SE QUAD 16:49:20 Z
SFC CNTR 191 / 21 NM FROM FL CNTR
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
RADAR BANDING EVIDENT
The surface center and the flight level center were north to south of each other.... about 21 nm... question is can the surface rebuild? and is it still off shore? I think it is just barley...This appears to me that the mountains/land interaction took a big toll on ernesto...now how will the surface center react.... i don't think anyone knows the answer... if it goes west some i think it has a good chance of staying alive... but if it goes over land... its going to have a hard time making it... now that the pressure is up 1007mb and i bet the center is open. THE GFDL... while it was an outlier in the start... if i remember correctly ..... IT NAILED Katrina coming off Florida? And so far with Ernesto... its looking pretty darn close!
|
MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 07:24 PM |
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Re:center
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Another satellite loop (The RAMSDIS one) linked here may help determine what is happening, rather the disruption of the system by the land.
|
MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 07:43 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday
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Correction for forum issue
| nc_tropical_wx79 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 07:43 PM |
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Re:center
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Can I please get the link for the GFDL model
|
MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 07:45 PM |
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Re:center
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Quote:
Can I please get the link for the GFDL model
Links for most of the models are at the bottom of the main page, including the GFDL.
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
FSU: CMC, GFDL, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, MM5; Phase Analysis
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
GFS, RUC, ETA
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
| Ronn |
| (User) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 07:47 PM |
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Re:center
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The center appears to be moving very slowly over the southern peninsula of Haiti, slightly north of the official forecast track. The Massif de la Hotte mountains in this area rise over 7,000 ft. and will be very disruptive to the small circulation of Ernesto, especially since the system is moving very slowly. Even though we are witnessing a seemingly dramatic decrease in intensity, Ernesto is not falling apart. A recent burst of convection has flared up over the center of circulation, and despite its size, satellite imagery indicates a well-defined circulation center. I think we will see this regain strength before encountering eastern Cuba. Will Ernesto survive this encounter? Unless Ernesto minimizes contact with Cuba by moving north or south of it, I think there is a very good chance that the storm may not survive this journey. Whatever Ernesto does from here, a disaster is already happening in western Haiti as we speak.
| TampaRand |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 07:49 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday
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Quote:
Charlie has nothing todo with Ernesto.....for 1 its not the same path..and 2nd the trough coming down is not as strong..this wont make a sharp turn.....For now..its how strong it will be when it leaves Cuba late Tuesday and where it leaves???? Also how much time it will have to strengthen cause if it enters florida near the glades..then might be a strong TS or min Hurricane..but if it stays off the west coast of florida to at least Sarasota N then a Cat 2-3 is possible...also I feel a track N to near 28N before any bend to the NNE...but thats 3.5 days away. Its just a watch storm...and currently I feel only a TS right now.
This pretty much mirrors my thinking about it right now. It's just a borderline hurricane right now and maybe a bit below. I don't think they'll downgrade it unless there is some major reduction in central pressure and/or windspeed sustained. These are really hard storms to predict when they run the long Cuban axis and I don't think we'll have a real good idea about this until maybe Tuesday after 1 pm. Then maybe some things will change (or not). It's looking pretty ragged right now thanks to Haiti.
| SirCane |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 07:51 PM |
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Re:center
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I'm sure Ernesto will survive this. Remember Frederic? He went over just about every island in the Caribbean and made it to the Gulf and become a dangerous 130mph Hurricane. He's not going to be over land all the time.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1979/FREDERIC/track.gif
| HurryCaneForm |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 07:55 PM |
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Re:center
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From this visible loop, the COC seems to have moved a bit more N/NE and the convection has started to fire up around it... With the forward speed it's moving, Haiti is getting washed from Ernesto.... It will be interesting to see what it does after it's trip over Haiti!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 08:00 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday
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altho ernest looks a bit ragged now, right over the coc thunderstorms have begun to burst, i think that this means possibly the coc has moved off land and is now regaining strength, and i do expect to gain more strength between eastern cuba and hispanola, remember these waters are very warm, and i would not be surprised if the track switches further right...again...
| CoalCracker |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 08:12 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday
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Latest recon data shows the vortex just soutwest of Haiti and slightly west of the progged track. The link below is something folks might want to save for future reference.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 08:13 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday
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Another clip of an AFD from Tallahassee this time with some great points made...
.LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY-SUNDAY) THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ERNESTO. THE BULK OF
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK MUCH FARTHER EAST THE
PAST FEW RUNS...WITH A CONSENSUS TRACK NEAR OR ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...THE THREAT TO OUR FORECAST AREA WOULD BE MINIMAL.
HOWEVER...IT IS DANGEROUS TO DISMISS THE THREAT TO OUR AREA SO FAR
OUT IN TIME. LAST YEAR (AROUND THIS TIME WHEN KATRINA WAS STILL
EAST OF FL) THE MODEL CONSENSUS WAS FORECASTING KATRINA TO MAKE
ITS SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST...WHEN IT
ACTUALLY ENDED UP MAKING LANDFALL IN MS. (THE MODELS DID EVENTUALLY
LOCK ONTO THE CORRECT SOLUTION WITHIN ABOUT 72 HOURS OF LANDFALL).
SIMILAR CASES (IVAN...DENNIS...ETC.) HAVE SHOWN THAT THE MODELS
CAN FLIP FLOP A BIT IN THEIR LONG RANGE FORECASTS WHEN HANDLING
COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERNS LIKE RECURVATURE. THE BOTTOM LINE FOR OUR
AREA IS THAT IT LOOKS BETTER THAN IT DID 24 HOURS AGO (IF YOU
DON`T WANT HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN)...BUT WE ARE NOT OFF THE
HOOK YET AND PROBABLY WON`T BE UNTIL ERNESTO FINALLY MAKES THE
TURN SOME TIME ON TUESDAY.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 08:15 PM |
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Re: GFDL consistency
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Just to let you know that was is happening seems to be captured by most of the models. Not just the GFDL. The GFS shows this as a week storm as it passes Haiti and Cuba even. I just want to be clear that right now, this doesnt appear to be anything that wasnt included in the models. If anything it appears the storm is NE of the forecast points.
| nc_tropical_wx79 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 08:17 PM |
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Re: GFDL consistency
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One of you are saying the center is SW and the other saying NE so which one is it? Where is the real center at?
| dolfinatic |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 08:22 PM |
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Re: GFDL consistency
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this shows that it is sw of forecast track.........
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html
| chase 22 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 08:23 PM |
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Re: GFDL consistency
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Quote:
One of you are saying the center is SW and the other saying NE so which one is it? Where is the real center at?
Check out the swfmd link that coalCracker put up. It shows the center to be SW of the track
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 08:27 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday
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Heres what I see in this.. Ernesto is going through some re-organization yet interacting with land so it's taking a while to get it's self together. As Ernesto continues to do it's thing it may perhaps in my idea be a cat. 3 at landfall in Cuba.. Then tears it up to a cat. 2 or 1 just like Dennis in 2005. Then makes either a Charley or a Charley forecast landfall. Very short notice to me.. I'll be preparing tommorrow.. even though i'm on the eats coast of FL.
| Genesis |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 08:30 PM |
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Re: GFDL consistency
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One thing you have to be careful with when it comes to that SFWMD graphic showing track .vs. fixes - they game the graphic.
That is, the forecasted track is updated with each advisory, which often makes it look like the storm is "right on the track". In retrospect, no its not and never was, because they keep moving the goalposts!
As a consequence I find that graphic interesting but not very informative. Historically its useful to see the pressure gradient and actual position, but it is totally worthless and in fact misleading as a means of providing a "qualitative check" of forecasting after the fact!
Anyway, it does appear that the fixes place the center just off the Haitian coast. That it does not appear to be actually going OVER the coast is not good, as if it had done that there was a good chance that the storm would have been shredded by the mountains.
As it sits however it looks like its going to skirt the coast. Yes, its being badly disrupted right now by the mountains, but in a few hours it will be back over open water with its COC able to wrap again without "hitting" 7,000' peaks, and headed for Cuba.
The question then becomes what Cuba does to it - that's a transit that on its present path should take about 24 hours, and has the POSSIBILITY of badly degrading the storm.
The "best case" scenario is that it comes off Cuba and is either shredded or heads right up into the Everglades as a fairly weak system, and rains itself out. Low population density, weak storm (Cat 1 perhaps), no huge property damage or loss of life.
However, I would not take a bet on that outcome. A weaker system will tend to be a bit west (left) of a stronger one, and as a consequence the odds of it shifting further right have come down some.
The GFDL is seeing a funky sort of ridge rebuilding right towards the end of the forecast period. I'm not buying it - yet - but its possible. It would, however, be quite anomalous in terms of the usual expected pattern for storm movement - to get that you'd pretty much have to have high pressure build in from the east, which rarely happens. It CAN, but I need to see more before I'm going to bite on that one.
| ElizabethH |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 08:31 PM |
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Re: GFDL consistency
|
If the recon data holds true with their latest location of the center, then the COC of Ernesto is no longer over land... Guess that answers the questions about the bursts of convection we have been seeing just SW of Haiti
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 08:31 PM |
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Re: GFDL consistency
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Based on the overall cloud pattern, Ernesto does not seem to be moving that much at all, though it is tough to pick out exactly where the center is. I don't know if the latest recon fix represents a movement to the west, or a relocation of the center, or some combination of the two. There was no indication of the surface center being displaced on the latest recon message like there was earlier, so maybe they were able to fix a center closer to the surface center this time.
With the pressure so high and the max flight level winds only 42 knots, there is barely enough evidence to even classify Ernesto as a tropical storm. I would expect to see a signficant reduction in the intensity in the next advisory, though they will probably keep it higher than what the recon data would suggest. The 18Z SHIPS guidance was initialized with an intensity of 50 knots, though I would expect something a little lower on the next advisory.
edit: I was wrong... the 21Z advisory lists the intensity at 50 knots.
| Heather |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 08:31 PM |
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Re: GFDL consistency
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Quote:
this shows that it is sw of forecast track.........
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html
Looks almost as if it is following the path of least resistance and avoiding land like Ivan did.
What are those red marks on the state of Florida?
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 08:38 PM |
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|
Ernesto Downgraded To Tropical Storm
|
FNC just announced that Ernesto has been downgraded to a TS .. which is not all that surprising given the Recon and overall look of him.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 08:39 PM |
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Re: GFDL consistency
|
Jeff Masters just reported that the Hurricane Hunters came back with sustained winds of 35 ph at 4 pm EST.
His new report is up.
| West FL Jess |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 08:39 PM |
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Re: GFDL consistency
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the Weather Channel just said it was downgraded to a Tropical Storm
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 08:40 PM |
|
Re: GFDL consistency
|
AT 5 PM...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT.
| saluki |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 08:42 PM |
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Re: GFDL consistency
|
Ernesto downgraded to a tropical storm, according to The Weather Channel. Let's see what happens now before interaction with Cuba begins.
Just returned from the local Publix here in Lauderdale. Water and batteries, though not sold out yet, are in short supply. It's good to see people here taking this seriously. It seemed like there was a bit of a cavalier attitude here last year as Wilma approached (and came in a bit stronger than expected).
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 08:44 PM |
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|
|
Hurricane Watches
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I think the fact that they have issued Hurricane Watches tells the tale...although he is now a TS, that probably means that they expect it to regain hurricane strength. Do not let your guard down. I don't think they had any choice but to downgrade it.
Ernesto is gonna be a pain in the neck.
| 7 Deadly Zins |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 08:46 PM |
|
Re: GFDL consistency
|
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/20:19:20Z
B. 17 deg 40 min N
074 deg 06 min W
C. 850 mb 1465 m
D. 20 kt
E. 131 deg 018 nm
F. 195 deg 033 kt
G. 131 deg 062 nm
H. EXTRAP 1004 mb
I. 17 C/ 1523 m
J. 23 C/ 1523 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF302 0605A ERNESTO OB 16
MAX FL WIND 33 KT E QUAD 20:00:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
This came in just after the 5:00 pm advisory went out.
It is south and east of the 5pm position.
55mph winds from the 5pm advisory is generous.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 08:46 PM |
|
Re: Forum Rules Reminder
|
Funky: Unusual or unexpected downgrading or expansion. A loop -de-loop, become subtropical, or get characteristics of both tropical and substropical so that the technicians, meterologists and historians will argue forever about the true authenticity of its status. Just plain Funky is doing what ever no one expected.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 08:48 PM |
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|
|
NHC Press Conference
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The NHC is going to hold a press conference on Ernesto shortly. It will be carried on all major cable news stations, probably also the local weather stations all over Florida.
I guarantee you that the NHC is going to warn us not to be complacent at this point in time about it being a TS because they expect it to regain hurricane status again.
I can think of no other reason why they would do this press conference.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 08:48 PM |
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Re: GFDL consistency
|
I'm not sure if the pressure change indicated in the latest recon fix (1007mb - 1004mb) actually represents a pressure drop, or just reflects that they extrapolated from 850mb in the latest report, compared to 700mb in the last one. The latest recon fix is also SE of the previous fix, which is odd.
| ElizabethH |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 08:50 PM |
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Re: GFDL consistency
|
From the 5pm EDT discussion on Ernesto...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS...MAINLY OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE USUALLY RELIABLE GFDL MODEL.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 08:51 PM |
|
Re: GFDL consistency
|
Quote:
I'm not sure if the pressure change indicated in the latest recon fix (1007mb - 1004mb) actually represents a pressure drop, or just reflects that they extrapolated from 850mb in the latest report, compared to 700mb in the last one. The latest recon fix is also SE of the previous fix, which is odd.
Could it mean that there are multiple vortexes and that the COC is reforming?
| 7 Deadly Zins |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 08:52 PM |
|
Re: GFDL consistency
|
Quote:
I'm not sure if the pressure change indicated in the latest recon fix (1007mb - 1004mb) actually represents a pressure drop, or just reflects that they extrapolated from 850mb in the latest report, compared to 700mb in the last one. The latest recon fix is also SE of the previous fix, which is odd.
The vortex they are measuring may be rotating around the broad area of low pressure, hence the south eastward movement.
| 7 Deadly Zins |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 08:55 PM |
|
Re: GFDL consistency
|
Quote:
From the 5pm EDT discussion on Ernesto...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS...MAINLY OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE USUALLY RELIABLE GFDL MODEL.
I don't think it ever should have been moved as much to the right as Stewart did in the 5 am advisory, that was a big move for a 5 day product.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 08:56 PM |
|
Re: GFDL consistency
|
OK, help me with something. If the hurricane hunters only found max sustained winds of 35mph over a two hour period. Why does the new graph from NHC say 60mph.
| KC |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 08:57 PM |
|
Re: GFDL consistency
|
Gov. Jeb Bush has declared a state of emergency for Florida.
http://www.emergencyemail.org/newsemergency/anmviewer.asp?a=130&z=1
| Josh Delsman |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 09:00 PM |
|
|
Re: GFDL consistency
|
Quote:
OK, help me with something. If the hurricane hunters only found max sustained winds of 35mph over a two hour period. Why does the new graph from NHC say 60mph.
The NHC is assuming that there are still 50kt winds in the NE quadrant.
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 09:05 PM |
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|
|
Re: GFDL consistency
|
The GFDL, Nogaps, and UKMET have all shifted west today. The concern to mei s that it will keep Ernesto in the Gulf longer..giving it time to regenerate into a formidible hurricane.. Worse solution is GFDL. this will keep the storm in the gulf all the way to Mexico Beach in the panhandle. I prefer something that goes towards the big bend area like the Nogaps is leaning now, mainly because the population is low in that area, therefore less damage (why< and how much did your FL home insurance policy jump this year?). the GFS would bring the storm into south FL in a remote area as a probable Tropical Storm, therefore no damage...wishful thinking..my concern is th e slow movement..I asked earlier if Ernesto could miss the trough..I would love Clarks take....this is a real crazy storm..maybe because we are all focussing on it so much because it has been a slow season thus far...lets hope this thing dies over Cuba..i still think model runs tomorrow after the NOAA aircraft data comes in will really help the models get an accurate grip..........
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 09:14 PM |
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|
Max Mayfield
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After just watching Max on tv,I will be preparing tonight and tommorow here in Ft lauderdale.It is going to be to close enough to give us bad weather at best.Remember prepare for the worst,And hope for the best.
| inHISgrip |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 09:18 PM |
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Re: Max Mayfield
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Question, is it the Upper level low of the east coast of Florida that is pulling this storm N/W???
| Josh Delsman |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 09:19 PM |
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Re: Max Mayfield
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Quote:
After just watching Max on tv,I will be preparing tonight and tommorow here in Ft lauderdale.It is going to be to close enough to give us bad weather at best.Remember prepare for the worst,And hope for the best.
I think folks should start to get those preliminary items ready — batteries, flashlights, medicine, some gas in those gas cans for generators, etc. — but I don't think I'd be going wild just yet. Tomorrow will ultimately be the day when the hurricane center will be in a better position to tell people what they should and should not be doing, but those are some things you should have ready from June 30th - Nov. 1st anyway.
Also, I think those of us in SFL shouldn't jump the gun just yet with the evacuations in the Keys taking place. Those folks need to start heading out early just basically because there are two lanes in and out, it gets congested easily, and there are portions of the highway that flood in even 35mph winds. So, if you're in the Keys, now would be the time to get ready to leave if:
1PM - Visitors & Non-Residents
6PM - Special Needs residents
10PM - Everyone in mobile homes
(Source: WSVN-7 5pm Broadcast)
| Josh Delsman |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 09:21 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening
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NEW: Officials have lifted the tolls on Card Sound Rd. for those of you in the Keys.
| Unregistered User |
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| Sun Aug 27 2006 09:27 PM |
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Re: GFDL consistency
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i missed the news confrence what did he say?
| harmlc.ath.cx |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 09:27 PM |
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Re: GFDL consistency
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Ernesto should reorganize once it moves away from Haiti with weak shear and an upper-level anticyclone still in place over the system. Upper level outflow is also still strong despite the highly mountainous terrain of Haiti creating a more titled eye. The water temperatures in the channel between Jamaica and Cuba are close to 90F, and this should help refuel Ernesto back to a Category 1 before it makes land fall over Cuba.
How Ernesto interacts with Cuba will play a roll in how strong Ernesto will be before it brazes past the Keys and makes land fall over main portions of Florida. It appears as if the Keys will dodge another hurricane, as I wouldn't expect Ernesto to still be holding Hurricane strength once it comes offshore of Cuba.
Where Ernesto goes after this is still up in the air. The GFDL is the farthest west, showing Ernesto making landfall over the Panhandle as a Category 3. The GFS shows Ernesto making landfall much farther east over Key Largo as a tropical storm. All the other models place landfall in between these two. The farther west Ernest goes, the more time it will spend over the Gulf of Mexico and hence the stronger it will be before land fall.
| Josh Delsman |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 09:31 PM |
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Re: GFDL consistency
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It looks as if, since the center is still over water and it's moving away from Haiti (albeit slowly), it's regaining a more classic signature.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rb-l.jpg
| jbmusic |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 09:33 PM |
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Re: GFDL consistency
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Just my untrained thought here, but since only part of the storm went over Haiti, actually the eye never made landfall, and this storm was torn up, won't going over Cuba have even a greater effect? Because the whole storm, eye and all will go over Cuba.
| Josh Delsman |
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| Sun Aug 27 2006 09:41 PM |
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Re: GFDL consistency
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Quote:
Just my untrained thought here, but since only part of the storm went over Haiti, actually the eye never made landfall, and this storm was torn up, won't going over Cuba have even a greater effect? Because the whole storm, eye and all will go over Cuba.
It's very mountainous in eastern Cuba, but I suspect Cuba won't have *as bad* of an effect on Ernesto.
Topographical Map of Haiti
| TampaRand |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 09:44 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening
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Quote:
NEW: Officials have lifted the tolls on Card Sound Rd. for those of you in the Keys.
Toll collection is being suspended statewide since Jeb signed the emergency order. We have gassed up, but don't wait until the last minute. I'm sure everyone of us in FL has seen the panic buying in the last 24 hours before an event. We will finish our storm preps tomorrow.
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 09:48 PM |
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Re: GFDL consistency
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I'm sure U have all seen this from SFWMD but models are shifting east except for GFDL. Maybe one of the Mets could shed some light on one of the variabiles it is picking up on?
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif
| saluki |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 09:59 PM |
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Re: GFDL consistency
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Among the models considered most reliable, the GFDL and UKMET remain to the west. The GFS is east, but it currently brings Ernesto into South Florida as a tropical storm and it's important to keep in mind that it has not been very consistent from run to run. Should be interesting to see what happens when the models update in a bit. Interaction with Cuba could have a huge effect on Ernesto's future track/intensity, so things are likely to shift a bit over the next day.
| jbmusic |
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| Sun Aug 27 2006 10:01 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening
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Quote:Quote:
NEW: Officials have lifted the tolls on Card Sound Rd. for those of you in the Keys.
Toll collection is being suspended statewide since Jeb signed the emergency order. We have gassed up, but don't wait until the last minute. I'm sure everyone of us in FL has seen the panic buying in the last 24 hours before an event. We will finish our storm preps tomorrow.
The Govenor has not lifted all tolls state wide he has just given the authorty to allow them to be lifted as needed
| Lysis |
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| Sun Aug 27 2006 10:06 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening
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Among the models considered most reliable, the GFDL and UKMET remain to the west. The GFS is east, but it currently brings Ernesto into South Florida as a tropical storm and it's important to keep in mind that it has not been very consistent from run to run.
Is not the GFDL initialized off of the GFS? Inconsistency then is a bit concerning! ...hence the usual 'unusual level of uncertainty'.
| Josh Delsman |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 10:10 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening
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It's important for folks here who live in the current forecast track to:
a.) not focus on the black line, as always, and
b.) don't pay *too* much attention to forecast models. They are *very* dynamic tools used by experienced, seasoned officials in addition to other details, not really for decision making use for amateurs. Also,
c.) don't wishcast. I have been watching the forums here for the last couple of days and there has been a lot of "Wow, it's heading straight for Texas!" when in fact that isn't true at all.
Happy tracking!
| hurricaneguy |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 10:13 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening
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The lastest frame shows a wobble due west and shows the center is under a tight ball of high cloud tops.
| weather_wise911 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 10:13 PM |
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Banding Features Improve
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Banding features have begun to improve somewhat--though Ernesto still looks like a moderate tropical storm at best.
GRAPHIC UPDATED BELOW
WW-911
| craigm |
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| Sun Aug 27 2006 10:14 PM |
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Re: GFDL consistency
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This probably should be a PM. Saluki U are absolutely correct about the reliability of those models. I'm noticing with this storm not as much of a windsheild wiper effect with the models but a distinct bias to the east. I'm curious about the data influencing the GFDL and the BamD which is not in sync with it's partners in the tropical suite.
| Josh Delsman |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 10:15 PM |
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Re: Banding Features Improve
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Quote:
Banding features have begun to improve somewhat--though Ernesto still looks like a moderate tropical storm at best.
Resize that image please...way too big
I believe there is a bit of shear to the W and NW of the system. That's why we're not seeing the banding features to the NW as of yet.
| TampaRand |
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| Sun Aug 27 2006 10:21 PM |
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Re: Banding Features Improve
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I wondered earlier if that was the case, but I'm not seeing a huge amount of shear except for some 5 & 10mph mids, but maybe that's enough to cause a lack of good banding there. The SW quad looks vastly improved
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF
| Genesis |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 10:24 PM |
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Re: Banding Features Improve
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What you're seeing is the disruption from the mountains. 7,000' mountains prevent the rotary nature of the winds from continuing around; the circulation is forced upwards and rains out; the "back side" then carries less precipitation.
As the core moves away from Haiti this effect will diminish; the circulation is still there and the convection is starting to wrap back around.
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 10:24 PM |
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Re: Banding Features Improve
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Cuba is not as bad of a mountainess area as I thought..
http://unimaps.com/cuba/mainmap.gif
Infact if it goes nw of the big mountains.. don't expect a huge weakening like the forcast shows as of right now. I still am predicting Ernesto to become a major Hurricane in the GOM rigth around where Charley did. After watching Charleys amazing power up.. I can't doubt to see this a major category 4 Hurrciane at landfall.
Speaking of the banding features.. They certanly look like a Hurrciane spiral.. Maybe Hurricane Ernesto by 8 or 11 p.m.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 10:25 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening
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OK, what you have to remember is the NHC only use the models to assist them in forecasting the track and intensity of the storm. They do not rely on them completely, or any monkey could do the job of the NHC. Another thing, I saw some critics of Mr. Stewart this morning for dramatically changing the track. Forecasts track changes are not unilateral decisions, but based upon input from many meterologists, models and other inputs. The NHC, for an organization completely underfunded by our government, is filled with dedicated employees who do a great job. Its because of them, that many lives are saved each year. So before we criticize the NHC, just keep in mind, they are the experts.
| Josh Delsman |
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| Sun Aug 27 2006 10:28 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening *DELETED*
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Post deleted by Josh Delsman
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 10:31 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening *DELETED*
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Post deleted by Hugh
| charlottefl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 10:40 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening
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We're getting into the time of year when the west coast of FL becomes vunerable to Hurricane strikes as cold fronts sweep deeper into the country as fall approaches. I think the NHC does a good job of forecasting the general direction of the storm and general landfall area but I still think a lot of people get hung up on the center line. If you look at the cone of error it encompasses for the most part all of the major computer models which by now have had several model runs with fairly small deviation in forecast track( maybe not in terms of miles, but in terms of angle which makes a huge difference as to where the storm will strike) Anyone from the Western FL panhandle to the keys is potentially at risk, but once again only time will tell. We will have a much better picture of what ernesto is going to do when he emerges off the coast of Cuba into the FL straits/Gulf of Mexico.
Hurricane Charley (Port Charlotte '04)
| TampaRand |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 11:04 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening
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Seems to me that NHC has had low confidence in forecast and track, both, thus some of the forecasters reluctance early on, plus these storms that run the length of Cuba are iffy, at best. They usually are much more robust if taking a south to north route. I am really wondering whether the system survives the Cuba axis. They have before, but were usually better developed before the crossing. This one doesn't have a lot of time to spin back up to much before making a very long and demanding landfall. As far as canes go, this one seems less impressive to me as time goes on. Had it survived Haiti I think I could have more confidence in it's long term health. But it is fairly small system and can spin up and down rapidly, so we'll see, but I remain skeptical.
| weather_wise911 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 11:13 PM |
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Banding Improves in all Quadrants
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| 7 Deadly Zins |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 11:16 PM |
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Re: Banding Improves in all Quadrants
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VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/22:07:00Z
B. 18 deg 02 min N
074 deg 23 min W
C. 850 mb 1473 m
D. 15 kt
E. 229 deg 030 nm
F. 314 deg 022 kt
G. 250 deg 011 nm
H. 1004 mb
I. 17 C/ 1522 m
J. 19 C/ 1529 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 10 nm
P. AF302 0605A ERNESTO OB 19
MAX FL WIND 33 KT E QUAD 20:00:40 Z
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It moved 22 min N, 17 min W since the previous vortex.
| Josh Delsman |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 11:18 PM |
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Re: Banding Improves in all Quadrants
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Quote:
*image above*
Still rather exposed in the NW quadrant, but it's getting a bit better organized overall. We'll see what happens at 8 and 11.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 11:20 PM |
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Re: Banding Improves in all Quadrants
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Fellows lets take it easy on the bandwith and not quote images and also all the recon info can be found to the left of the pages.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 11:22 PM |
Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening
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I'm a novice at this so maybe you guys can help me out....What are the chances that this storm could cross Cuba and move north towards the Panhandle. The models all seem to be changing rather quickly and conflicting one another. Also, the storm is so currently challenged over land, how can it possibly survive the long trip over Cuba
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 11:25 PM |
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Re: Banding Improves in all Quadrants
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To make it clear, images are fine, like the ones he posted, our image server network bandwidth is huge, so that's not so much an issue as it once was, but the issue was too large of an inline image, stretching the tables out a bit too much. Rule of thumb is to keep all images smaller than 600 pixels horizontal and 500 pixels vertical. Make sure all images are hosted on your own webspace. We do not approve of bandwidth leeching and forcing other people to pay for your images. Exceptions are sites designed for it, or governmental sites.
Another option is to use the file attachment feature on the board here.
If it's too big, or not on your site, link it, please. Or resize it, if possible. Otherwise, anything illustrating where the system is or what may be happening is welcome!
Ernesto seems to be getting somewhat back together, though. I'll try to update again later tonight.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 11:44 PM |
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Re: Banding Improves in all Quadrants
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Call me crazy, but I'm not sold on Ernesto spending lots of time over the high mountains of Cuba - yet anyway.
Over the last several hours, the COC has continued to appear to move more westward on IR loop. Cold cloud tops are coming and going, but I'd say Ernesto is probably regaining some intensity as it continues to move away from Haiti toward Cuba and Jamaica. The CDO has shifted southwest of where it was located two hours ago, which could just mean that Ernesto is reorganizing, but a reorganization to the southwest could have an impact on any track through Cuba.
Going to be interesting to see what the next couple of model runs do.
Well I just saw new model runs, now all in agreement pretty much on top of the NHC forecast.
Also the 8pm advisory is out... winds down to 50, movement still NW, but the center was relocated to the NNE.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 27 2006 11:59 PM |
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i see the wobble west, not ready to buy into it as movement
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Makes you want to hope in South Florida that it will resume wnw after getting off but think we will see when it's off land completely.
Great discussion here, reading and thanks.
| Josh Delsman |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 12:02 AM |
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Re: i see the wobble west, not ready to buy into it as movement
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8PM - 50mph, 1004mb Pressure
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 12:06 AM |
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Banding
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Ernesto's whole satellite signature has improve over the last 3 hours.
The circular area over the SW tip of Haiti is trying to connect to the line area S of the Dom Rep./ Haiti Border.
Connect the dots. Take the circle plus the line and connect them making a comma shape.
This enhancement is probably the best for viewing the higher cloud tops in near 3 D form.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/jsl-l.jpg
Based on the current satellite signature and Ernesto's close proximity to water, if not over water now, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Hurricane Ernesto tag on the 4 AM Advisory, and possibly the 10 PM advisory. That would depend on satellite signature and Recon data.
Colleen mention Max Mayfield earlier. I caught part of his interview and Max is in a very serious mode/ mood.
Just because Ernesto is up and dwon in intensity... Do Not Change your plans to do your Hurricane Preparations and Evacuations.
Most Floridians know how fast the Freeways fill up, and how slow they can get. Go and get fuel tonight or first thing in the morning. So you don't get caught without fuel.
Check out your local area for shelter information in case you cannot get out for some reason.
And Please check on your friends and family. Make sure they know what the Storm status is and where they are going.
If they have no place to go and your home is safer. Invite them over. Thanks.
| flanewscameraman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 12:06 AM |
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Re: Banding Improves in all Quadrants
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Just a question for those in the know here..Th eight o'clock says watches may be required for portions of the Bahamas..Does this indicate the possability of a more northward or even north east movement?
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 12:11 AM |
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Re: Banding Improves in all Quadrants
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Please remember the NW quandrant is basically sitting over mountain tops that are over 5,000 feet high... the part of ernesto that has emerged over water shows excellent structure and won't take much to ramp back up if the NW part gets off the backbone of haiti..
Funny how a storm can look bad and good at the same time..
| Josh Delsman |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 12:11 AM |
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Re: Banding Improves in all Quadrants
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Quote:
Just a question for those in the know here..Th eight o'clock says watches may be required for portions of the Bahamas..Does this indicate the possability of a more northward or even north east movement?
The 11pm forecast TS wind swath may extend out to the turks and cacos islands, therefore requiring some TS watches/warnings for them.
I think they lowered the storm to 50mph due to the recon reports, and just to align them further. Also, I think the chance that this storm will stay over Cuba for a long period of time will diminish as it gains latitude, as it did during the 8pm advisory.
| HurryCaneForm |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 12:12 AM |
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Re: i see the wobble west, not ready to buy into it as movement
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With the current forward speed decreasing(now down to 7 mp/h) and having a body of warm waters between Cuba and Haiti... It could get its strength back up again in no time...
If the center is about 140 miles South-Southeast of Guantanamo, means it will take Ernesto about 20 hours or less to reach Guantanamo at its current speed.
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 12:14 AM |
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Re: Banding Improves in all Quadrants
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weatherwise where did you download that image ?? It looks like its been doctored with a hurricane symbol in the middle. Anyway models are really tightening up now that GFDL has shifted back east. Keys and West Coast of Florida need to prepare.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 12:15 AM |
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Re: Banding
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Thank you Daniel for the visual candy... beautiful.
Thanks.
Does anyone have information on the Gulfstream Jet that I thought was going to investigate the area around the storm?
And... re: Cuba.. isn't the jet the one they allow when a storm is close vs recon or are they all off limits with current situation in cuba? wondering..
would be useful data
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon Aug 28 2006 12:17 AM |
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Re: Banding Improves in all Quadrants
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Does anyone know why there seems to be an apparent slowing of the storms speed and if this was expected to slow down this much? Curious because this might would change the direction and the strength and thus toss out all the computer models at this point. Any Thoughts? Thanks JOC
| inHISgrip |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 12:21 AM |
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Re: Banding Improves in all Quadrants
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Looks to be a tad bit NE of the forcast track once again. SWFMD
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 12:29 AM |
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Re: Banding Improves in all Quadrants
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Ernesto is indeed looking better...which is exactly why Max Mayfield felt the need to do a press conference at 5pm. As far as watches for the Bahamas, it may be because of the outflow and/or they are thinking it may skirt a little further east of Central Cuba. I'm not exactly sure why. But if you look at the storm overall, it is producing a lot of storms in a lot of places.
My own take is that the shear has relaxed enough to allow more reorganization, the storm could be growing because the ridge is breaking down, allowing for more outflow, in turn allowing for more bad weather.
I do not like the look of Ernesto right now. If he is going to pull all of those t-storms with him, he is going to be trouble for a lot of people.
Remember...what you see is generally what you get. You guys/gals did a great job today with him...you were on spot that he should be downgraded...and he was. Keep up the good work and you'll be A-OK.
FYI...even the inland counties (Polk, where I live) are beginning to pay attention. The gas lines are growing, the Publix where I live is busier than Hades and my husband just came back from the bank. He was the last one to be able to pull money out of the ATM. I'd suggest going first thing in the morning - maybe midmorning, if you can. Also remember this: the national media is going to be all over this storm...and therefore all over this state...so if you feel the need to make hotel reservations, do so now. The last thing you need is having a room taken away by a talking head with a microphone whipping around his/her head.
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danielw
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| Mon Aug 28 2006 12:35 AM |
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Recon
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Lois had asked earlier about the Gulfstream. I haven't pinned down their location. But they are airborne.
Gulfstream looks to be flying a Pre Storm Enviroment Mission.
Air Force Recon has departed the storm and their replacement isn't due over the storm until 28/ 06Z or 5 hours from now.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 12:45 AM |
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NOAA Plane
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I believe that Cuba allows the Gulfstream into their airspace because it is not a military plane -- although I'm not sure of that because I know you have to fly around Cuba in order to get to Jamaica on a commercial flight. Of course, they probably want the info also, so I can't see why they wouldn't allow it.
Daniel mentioned that they are on their way and from what I just heard on BN9, he would be correct.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 12:46 AM |
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Re: Banding Improves in all Quadrants
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Great advice. Don't wait to the last minute to get gas and get cash. I am also wondering why the storm is moving so slow.
What is causing this?
| DaViking |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 12:47 AM |
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Re: Banding Improves in all Quadrants
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It looks like the radar image out of Gitmo puts the center North of the tip of the Southern Haitian Peninsula.
Perhaps one of the mets can take a look just to make sure?
Gitmo
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 12:47 AM |
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Re: Banding Improves in all Quadrants
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Naval Station Guantanamo radar (often difficult to access) is picking up the storm.
I used the CMAX option on the radar setting. The presentation is rather unusual -
I can't tell where the COC is.
https://detweb.weather.navy.mil/gtmo/
| pincty |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 12:48 AM |
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Re: Banding Improves in all Quadrants
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I was just on Weather Underground and noticed that the BAMM ran at 8:00 tonight and has the storm moving in at around the Ft. Myers area.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 12:48 AM |
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Re: Banding Improves in all Quadrants
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Has there been a high altitude mission into this storm yet?
Edit: Never mind, posted while I was not looking.
| dkblostnottinghamsmoney |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 12:50 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening
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Is this thing now moving west or is that just a wobble??...This storm is crazy....
| FL InsGuru |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 12:57 AM |
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Re: Banding Improves in all Quadrants
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With most of Florida "in the cone" and Ernesto a few days out, it's a good idea to begin insurance preparations too. Some general tips:
- If evacuating, take copies of your automobile and homeowners policies with you. Be sure to write down the phone numbers for reporting claims
- Verify that your mortgagee is listed correctly on your homeowners insurance policy. FL allows insurance companies to make checks for structural damage payable to both the insured and the mortgage company. If your mortgage company is listed incorrectly, the check may have to be reissued - significantly delaying payment.
- Keep a camera (preferably digital) in your hurricane preparation kit. If able, you should take photos of damage before making temporary repairs.
- Documentation is key - keep receipts for any and all expenses.
Good luck everybody!
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 01:01 AM |
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Re: Banding Improves in all Quadrants
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Well, Ernesto has been interacting with land all day long. Generally, it will take a while for a storm to get his/her/its act together after that (i.e., he's trying to reorganize) and the forward speed may slow down while this happens.
If this is the case, it will probably have been mentioned in the last full discussion -- you may want to check there.
| ltpat228 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 01:02 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening
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VERY helpful and informative link to the U.S. NAVY site below!
http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/home1.html
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 01:11 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening
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I say this with kindness because ALL storms are crazy: do not watch every bobble/jump/west/east/north/south movement in a couple of loops or YOU will go crazy.
Ernesto is just coming off of Hispaniola...and he will jump every now and then. Until you see it happening for a while -- like 3-6 hours --- it is nothing more but the norm with a tropical cyclone. If it's a trend, they NHC will let you know.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 01:15 AM |
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Max Mayfield
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Max Mayfield was Right! He knew this could happen when it was downgraded.
Don't do this! This is how people get hurt and worse.
"AT 8 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS DOWNGRADED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC... AND THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR GRAND CAYMAN HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/272359.shtml
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 01:17 AM |
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Re: Max Mayfield
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Well, Dan.. the NHC isn't forecasting any significant impact on the Cayman Islands, are they? So, dropping the hurricane warning for the islands does not seem unreasonable.
| Josh Delsman |
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| Mon Aug 28 2006 01:18 AM |
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Re: Max Mayfield
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Quote:
Well, Dan.. the NHC isn't forecasting any significant impact on the Cayman Islands, are they? So, dropping the hurricane warning for the islands does not seem unreasonable.
There will still most likely be some squalls with damaging winds and some torrential, potentially flash-flood producing rains. So, yes, if the storm gets stronger overnight and moves in that general direction, there is still need for a hurricane watch, at the very least.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 01:21 AM |
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Re: Max Mayfield
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Grand Caymans are not even in the cone and the system is only a Tropical Storm. I see absolutely no issue with the Cayman Islands only haveing Tropical Storm watches. I think saying people are in danger is a gross overreaction.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 01:22 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening
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Quote:
I say this with kindness because ALL storms are crazy: do not watch every bobble/jump/west/east/north/south movement in a couple of loops or YOU will go crazy.
Ernesto is just coming off of Hispaniola...and he will jump every now and then. Until you see it happening for a while -- like 3-6 hours --- it is nothing more but the norm with a tropical cyclone. If it's a trend, they NHC will let you know.
Yes but those among us who are crazy weather nuts, enjoy watching the jumps and bumps.
It's what we do.
When we're not in line getting gas etc.
On a serious note, Like everyone else, I'm watching with interest here in central Florida.
I'm happy that Ernesto lost some punch over Hispaniola and I'm hoping for the same over
Cuba. The warm waters of the Florida Straits will add energy to the storm but it's a better
scenario than it might have been. We can use some rain, it's the strong winds that
we don't need or want.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 01:23 AM |
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Re: Max Mayfield
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Quote:
There will still most likely be some squalls with damaging winds and some torrential, potentially flash-flood producing rains. So, yes, if the storm gets stronger overnight and moves in that general direction, there is still need for a hurricane watch, at the very least.
The Cayman Islands are nowhere near the current forecast track, though. They were within the cone yesterday but haven't been since the forecast shifted eastward this morning. Ernesto would have to travel due west for them to be effected.
| jessiej |
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| Mon Aug 28 2006 01:24 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening
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It looks like the center has jumped north of the tip of Haiti. This maybe just a wobble, but if it's not, the track will probably be shifted more to the east. Some of the model runs are showing a more easterly track to include the Bahamas.
| Josh Delsman |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 01:27 AM |
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Re: Max Mayfield
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Quote:Quote:
There will still most likely be some squalls with damaging winds and some torrential, potentially flash-flood producing rains. So, yes, if the storm gets stronger overnight and moves in that general direction, there is still need for a hurricane watch, at the very least.
The Cayman Islands are nowhere near the current forecast track, though. They were within the cone yesterday but haven't been since the forecast shifted eastward this morning. Ernesto would have to travel due west for them to be effected.
But, please be aware that the storm is over 300 miles wide (TS-force winds). The cone of error is for the center of the storm only. There is still a possibility that the storm could travel on the left side of the margin of error. Therefore, the loss of that warning was unsubstantiated, and probably the wrong thing to do in case the storm makes a move towards the right edge of the cone.
| CDMOrlando |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 01:30 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening
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Quote:
It looks like the center has jumped north of the tip of Haiti. This maybe just a wobble, but if it's not, the track will probably be shifted more to the east. Some of the model runs are showing a more easterly track to include the Bahamas.
ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT. WATCHES MAY ALSO BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL OR NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TONIGHT.
Since it is not the lower Bahamas that would be in the direct path should it turn to the north now.. it appears that the NHC is thinking that the storm will move more across the peninsula and hit the Bahamas from the west.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 01:31 AM |
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Re: Max Mayfield
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Quote:
But, please be aware that the storm is over 300 miles wide (TS-force winds). The cone of error is for the center of the storm only. There is still a possibility that the storm could travel on the left side of the margin of error. Therefore, the loss of that warning was unsubstantiated, and probably the wrong thing to do in case the storm makes a move towards the right edge of the cone.
Where the heck do you get 300 miles from??? Max extension is 100 nautical miles out in the SE quad. Nowhere near 300 miles.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 01:32 AM |
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Re: Max Mayfield
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Where the heck do you get 300 miles from??? Max extension is 100 nautical miles out in the SE quad. Nowhere near 300 miles.
Not to mention that the storm is well east of the Cayman Islands. If it goes to the right of the track, it would be even further from the islands.
| Josh Delsman |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 01:33 AM |
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Re: Max Mayfield
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Quote:Quote:
But, please be aware that the storm is over 300 miles wide (TS-force winds). The cone of error is for the center of the storm only. There is still a possibility that the storm could travel on the left side of the margin of error. Therefore, the loss of that warning was unsubstantiated, and probably the wrong thing to do in case the storm makes a move towards the right edge of the cone.
Where the heck do you get 300 miles from??? Max extension is 100 nautical miles out in the SE quad. Nowhere near 300 miles.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.
That's a 115 mile *radius*, therefore around 330 miles in diameter. But, that's a rough estimate.
This has already been debunked later on...but a radius of 115 miles is a diameter of 230 miles, not 330. -Clark
| Josh Delsman |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 01:34 AM |
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Re: Max Mayfield
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Quote:Quote:
Where the heck do you get 300 miles from??? Max extension is 100 nautical miles out in the SE quad. Nowhere near 300 miles.
Not to mention that the storm is well east of the Cayman Islands. If it goes to the right of the track, it would be even further from the islands.
Oops! Typo... I meant left!
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 01:37 AM |
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Re: Max Mayfield
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Quote:
Where the heck do you get 300 miles from??? Max extension is 100 nautical miles out in the SE quad. Nowhere near 300 miles.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.
That's a 115 mile *radius*, therefore around 330 miles in diameter. But, that's a rough estimate.
This will be my last comment on this becuase it is a waste of bandwidth, please refer to the advisory.
Current radius of winds:
34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 20SW 0NW.
That is not 300 miles. Please verify your facts and don't make a fool of yourself in the forum in the future, thank you.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 01:38 AM |
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Re: Max Mayfield
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OK. Lets end that stuff there. Use the PM if you need to.
| RevUp |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 01:39 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening
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Quote:Quote:
It looks like the center has jumped north of the tip of Haiti. This maybe just a wobble, but if it's not, the track will probably be shifted more to the east. Some of the model runs are showing a more easterly track to include the Bahamas.
ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT. WATCHES MAY ALSO BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL OR NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TONIGHT.
Since it is not the lower Bahamas that would be in the direct path should it turn to the north now.. it appears that the NHC is thinking that the storm will move more across the peninsula and hit the Bahamas from the west.
Given it's latest movement, I believe the alternate scenario I mentioned this morning is becoming more and more possible (and finally picked up by at least one model) ... that the center of Ernesto never crosses, or even touches the FL peninsula, but moves NNW just off the E coast (along the eastern edge of the current cone). This would cause a lot more grief for the central and NW Bahamas.
| Tropics Guy |
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| Mon Aug 28 2006 01:40 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening
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Quote:
It looks like the center has jumped north of the tip of Haiti. This maybe just a wobble, but if it's not, the track will probably be shifted more to the east. Some of the model runs are showing a more easterly track to include the Bahamas.
Looking at the GITMO radar loop, it does appear that the center is now north of the SW Haitian Peninsula and still moving to the NW towards Cuba. Now that it is clearing Haiti we could be at the beginning of a re-intensification cycle.
http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/products/anima...2>ype=JPG
TG
| GulfBreezeFL |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 01:42 AM |
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Re: Max Mayfield
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Can anyone explain to me what has to happen in the atmosphere for Ernesto to take a track toward the AL/FL border. I just don't trust these models and predictions since Katrina was supposed to hit Appalachacola and hit N.O. and Ivan was supposed to drift to N.O. and ended up creaming us in Pensacola area. Is there any chance that in the next 2 days the atmospheric conditions could change and bring Ernesto up through the hot waters of the mid gulf and into Pensacola? I am not asking for a % prediction, but am trying to understand why the models and NHC are so sure this thing is going to dogleg hard to the right in a couple of days.
This site is the best, that's why i am a long time supporter and donator. You guys have helped me out immensely in Ivan and Dennis and that's why i'm going to be sending Mike C. a check this week to help him pay for his enormous bandwidth costs that this site must use, more and more each year.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 01:47 AM |
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Re: Max Mayfield
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I don't know if I need to justify my above post on the Cayman's dropping the Hurricane Watch or not. But I will.
I have learned to Never Ever drop your guard on a Tropical Cyclone that is South of your location.
Whether it's S, SE, or SW. It can turn.
Along the same line I personally watch them until they are above my Latitude also.
Here are the NHC coordinates for the Caymans.
Grand Cayman -- GC 19.32 -81.26
Little Cayman, Cayman Brac -- GC 19.70 -79.94
While the current Model Forecasts take Ernesto East of the Caymans, forecast can and do change. As do the intensity forecasts.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 01:51 AM |
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northward movement?
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If you look at the water vapor carefully tonight you will see it's a very fluid environment out there and it looks to me a new upper level low .. steering mechanism may be forming to the North of the storm... not close enough to hurt it but well........ it's real fluid and I don't see a wnw path and what looked a bit like a weak, weak high to the north of the storm.. or dry air looks weaker and is filling in from the outflow off of Ernesto.
Looked like it was going west on some images but it seems whats you see isn't always what is really going on..
Which is why we have RECON
and dropsondes..
| TampaRand |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 01:53 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening
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Quote:
Given it's latest movement, I believe the alternate scenario I mentioned this morning is becoming more and more possible (and finally picked up by at least one model) ... that the center of Ernesto never crosses, or even touches the FL peninsula, but moves NNW just off the E coast (along the eastern edge of the current cone). This would cause a lot more grief for the central and NW Bahamas.
That solution would require the ridge of high pressure to have already departed, which it hasn't, and the digging trof to be already on the FL peninsula. It's in Eastern Colorado. The steering currents don't support that either. It isn't making a definitive Northerly motion, but actually is just about on the forecast track. I'm still with the forecast track for now and awaiting the Cuba crossing. The modeling just doesn't indicate that solution anywhere. There is actually tighter consensus than there has been in a while.
A correction:
A slight correction---- the trof has moved somewhat from eastern Colorado and the tailing edge is in North Texas/Eastern New Mexico
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 01:59 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening
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That solution would require the ridge of high pressure to have already departed, which it hasn't, and the digging trof to be already on the FL peninsula. It's in Eastern Colorado. The steering currents don't support that either. It isn't making a definitive Northerly motion, but actually is just about on the forecast track. I'm still with the forecast track for now and awaiting the Cuba crossing. The modeling just doesn't indicate that solution anywhere. There is actually tighter consensus than there has been in a while.
It's a different ULL. I see it on water vapor now. The "outflow" from Ernesto is being pulled up and around this ULL which is well north of the storm, and the ULL is tracking due west it appears, toward the NW Bahamas and the east coast of Florida. The pattern probably looks more complicated to me than it really is, but something pulled Ernesto to a NW track from WNW, and this looks like the culprit.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 02:00 AM |
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Re: Max Mayfield
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Daniel, I would just trust that the Caymen Island Mets are getting info from NHC that they trust. There is a big difference between the general public taking a downgrade the wrong way and an official government forecasting service. I don't think you are giving the Meteorologist there enough credit by saying they are taking the storm lightly becuase they downgraded warnings. They looked at the data and are feeling that the worst they might see are some TS storm force winds, but do not consider it an absolute based on the forecast. Its not like they are just sitting there looking at the public advisories and saying, 'Oh well, its just a TS. We can drop our warnings.' They comminicate with the Hurricane Center too.
| Doombot! |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 02:03 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening
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Looking at the GITMO radar loop, it does appear that the center is now north of the SW Haitian Peninsula and still moving to the NW towards Cuba. Now that it is clearing Haiti we could be at the beginning of a re-intensification cycle.
http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/products/anima...2>ype=JPG
TG
If anything it looks to be on the wane per the Color IR loop.
IR loop
Hope the trend continues.
| TampaRand |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 02:05 AM |
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Re: northward movement?
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Quote:
If you look at the water vapor carefully tonight you will see it's a very fluid environment out there and it looks to me a new upper level low .. steering mechanism may be forming to the North of the storm... not close enough to hurt it but well........ it's real fluid and I don't see a wnw path and what looked a bit like a weak, weak high to the north of the storm.. or dry air looks weaker and is filling in from the outflow off of Ernesto.
Looked like it was going west on some images but it seems whats you see isn't always what is really going on..
I did see a small pocket of 30kt shear a ways northeast of the center (NE quadrantish-but way off towards the farthest outflow) and some Cirrus clouds in that area.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 02:35 AM |
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Re: northward movement?
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This thread has corruption problems so I'm closing it a bit early. I have put a stub up for the new 11PM update a bit early to fix problems with missing posts.
| hofloka |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 02:46 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto - Evening
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Just check the map and i think from an amateur point of view that you are right
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 28 2006 02:49 AM |
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Re: northward movement?
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Reposted in the new thread... thanks.
new thread... future posts over there. -HF