MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Sep 10 2004 11:50 AM
Hurricane Ivan Paths

Please note the Gas Rationing Rumor for Florida that has been going on is FALSE. There is no gas rationing going on.

3PM
Windfield of Ivan and Jamaica: (Thanks skeetobite)


2PM Update
Ivan's track has shifted a little westward at 11AM. It looks like it will hold category 4 strength as it nears Jamaica. More to come around 5.

(Note errors may be large on this graphic!)


Original Update
Hurricane Ivan is currently approaching Jamaica, and will be very close or over Jamaica by late tonight and early tomorrow morning. Some of the outer edges of Ivan are already being felt there.


(Thanks Skeetobite)

The good news is that it's looking a bit weaker than ysterday when it was a category 5 for part of the day. It will still be a major system when it gets to Jamaica, but not a category 5. Whatever it will be when it reaches Jamaica I hope for the best and I hope all there have prepared as best they could.



After Jamaica, it will cross over Cuba and enter the Gulf of Mexico briefly. Models are starting to consolidate and want to take the storm into the Western Florida coast, again at an angle that makes picking a particular town or location along the west coast very difficult. The timeline would be Monday night and Tuesday for a Florida landfall. There still is time for it to change, but right now I don't see anything to doubt the current National Hurricane Center track.

Another Florida hit would again open up even more chance for Flooding and more tree and damage on top of existing damage that we already have seen this year.

(Note forecasts at this range can have up to 200 mile errors!)


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Event RelatedLinks
Jamaican Radar (long and short range)
Jamaican Weather Service
Stormcarib personal reports from Jamaica
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
Weather Underground Model Plots for Ivan
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image
Animated Color Ivan Satellite (With NHC Track Overlay)
(Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
Key West (Florida Keys)Long Range Radar Loop

General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps
Current Aircraft Recon Info

Disaster Relief Information

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.

Jamiewx
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 10 2004 11:55 AM
MLB Discussion

Flooding is going to be a serious problem here in Florida as mentioned by this part of the Melbourne NWS Discussion this morning.

"MON-THU...TPC TRACK GUIDANCE...NOT TO MENTION 00Z GLOBAL SUITE...IS OMINOUS FOR FLORIDA...ONCE AGAIN. ALTHOUGH DETAILS ARE NOT YET CERTAIN...AFTER ABOUT H72...ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT BREACH IN THE DLM RIDGE DEVELOPING RIGHT AROUND THE LONGITUDE OF FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT ERN GOMEX. THE GFS/UKM/ECM AND GFS-BASED TROPICAL
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A PENINSULAR FLORIDA LANDFALL WITH THE CNDN GEM SHIFTING EAST CLOSER TO THE PENINSULA...LEAVING THE NOGAPS AS SOMEWHAT OF A WESTERN OUTLIER. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT...ALTHOUGH STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY FROM ANY POTENTIAL EFFECTS...SW/SOUTH FL IS PRETTY MUCH BRACKETED BY GUIDANCE...AND THUS THE CWA IS LOOKING AT PSBL EFFECTS FROM YET ANOTHER MAJOR HURRICANE.

AGAIN...EXACT TRACK/ INTENSITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT...BUT WITH IVAN PASSING AS CLOSE TO THE AREA AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...CWA MAY BE LOOKING AT UNCHARTED TERRITORY AS FAR AS FLOODING EFFECTS ALONE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER. SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH THE ALREADY WEAKENED STATE OF SO MANY TREES AROUND THE AREA...AND STRUCTURES WHICH ARE ALREADY SUFFERING ROOF AND OTHER DAMAGE WOULD ONLY MAGNIFY POTENTIAL WIND EFFECTS. WE WILL SEE HOW THIS ALL PLAYS OUT."

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 10 2004 12:00 PM
Re: Hurricane Ivan Paths

1100Z weather for Kingston, Jamaica. Wind-calm, light rain showers, Mostly cloudy, ceiling 2,200ft, cumulonimbus (Thunderstorms) in area. Pressure 1008mb.
MKJP 101100Z 00000KT 9999 -SHRA SCT022 BKN022CB 28/23 Q1008

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 10 2004 12:01 PM
TAMPA

Here is an email I just received from Thomas:

It's looking more and more grim for us in the Tampa Bay area with a probable CAT 3-4 Hurricane Ivan strike. Unless we get a further west track then I'm forecasting and/or a weaker cyclone due to wind shear then I'm forecasting, the Tampa Bay area will be destroyed as we know it, with more damage then the Miami area suffered with CAT 5 Hurricane Andrew.

NOTE! As I officially retired from "for profit" weather forecasting in 2000, I do not have the time available to conduct an in depth daily Meteorological synoptic analysis, therefore my day to day accuracy will be less then in past years, when I had a 48 hour forecast accuracy in the high 90% range.
Also as the science of Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still an inexact science, these not for profit discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not for use in lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life or property, are for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. This discussion herein is my intellectual property and copyrighted © 1988-2004 by Thomas F. Giella, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL

SkeetoBiteAdministrator
(Master of Maps)
Fri Sep 10 2004 12:08 PM
Ivan Paths - Up close & personal



Full size image available at Skeetobite.com

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 10 2004 12:13 PM
Re: Hurricane Ivan Paths

Shortime lurker, first post.

Please let me apologize in advance if this is the wrong place to ask this question.

I live in Charleston, SC and was curious as to where I should evacuate to if necessary. I have only lived here a short time. I originally thought Asheville, NC was a good spot - until I saw the flooding they suffered from Frances. I certainly don't want to just throw my family in the car and start driving, but I'm at a loss as to where I should go if necessary.

Many thanks for any recommendations for "safe" locations.

Eric in SC

Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 10 2004 12:23 PM
Re: Hurricane Ivan Paths

You can never make a blanket decision of where to evacuate if necessary. You really have to pay attention to where each particular storm is going and then go in the opposite direction. I was vacationing in Orlando and left as a result of Charley (the house we were staying in actually took a tree to the roof, I understand). I was amazed that some media was telling people to go south. Then, we ran into people at Disney that evacuated from Tampa. All of this made no sense to me. If you're going to evacuate, you need to go far enough away to account for any slights shifts in the track. Bottom line is you have to pay attention to the data, not just the media. Luckily, this storm will not be a problem for you.... and you may soon have some Florida visitors!

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 10 2004 12:28 PM
Re: Hurricane Ivan Paths

Don't really have any great ideas for you. I do know this from Frances and Charley: when people were told to evacuate, they were told not to go too far from home. I think they wanted people to be able to get back in as soon as humanly possible. It's still a ways off, and it could still go anywhere, although as time narrows down so does the window of where it would go. You can always make a reservation at a hotel and then cancel it within 24 hours if necessary. You certainly don't want to be 10-12 hours away; at least I know people here did not want to be.
That's my own little humble opinion, which is worth about .01!

HCW
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 10 2004 12:31 PM
Re: Hurricane Ivan Paths

Sure does look like FL is in for anouther one . I will say prayers for yall that the models trend away from you guys at the last minute to save ya'll from heavy damage.

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200409_model.gif

BeachBum
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 10 2004 12:33 PM
Re: Hurricane Ivan Paths

It will vary from storm to storm, but for most storms heading for Charleston from the Atlantic, I expect Columbia would be quite safe. Certainly, there no reason to head for the hills.

For Ivan and other storms going inland from the GOM, I would stay in Charleston.

Note: With all the uncertainty surrounding Frances, I went almost 500 miles to area between Panama City and Pensacola. Safe ground whould be closer to Charleston.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 10 2004 12:33 PM
Re: Ivan Paths - Up close & personal

Great map Skeeto. Are you going to update it with each advisory? Thanks for the info. It calmed my nerves a little since it put me in ts winds only.

Ricreig
(User)
Fri Sep 10 2004 12:34 PM
Re: Hurricane Ivan Paths

Quote:

That's my own little humble opinion, which is worth about .01!

With inflation and price-gouging, it is worth more like $.04....but it remains a valuable opinion. I think in his case, flooding may be more of a problem. I'm sure you know that flooding often kills more people in a hurricane than does the wind. I suspect he won't feel too much wind but he needs to seek shelter somewhere other than his basement

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 10 2004 12:35 PM
Re: Hurricane Ivan Paths

Based on the forecast tracks Ivan may not give you a wind problem, but more of a rain/flood problem. If you decide you need to evacuate, you might ask around your neighborhood and/ or work. My first pick would be a large, 50-100,000 plus, city. They should have better drainage than smaller ones. High ground, motel/ hotel Not prone to flooding/ flash flooding. Not an easy pick, even this early in the game. Some of the board members (HankF) probably have better info. HF lives in the Aiken,SC area. I believe there are quite a few others from SC on here. Probably best to look after 6pm.
Good luck.

Ricreig
(User)
Fri Sep 10 2004 12:36 PM
Re: Ivan Paths - Up close & personal

Quote:

Great map Skeeto. Are you going to update it with each advisory? Thanks for the info. It calmed my nerves a little since it put me in ts winds only.

Go check out http://skeetobite.com where he has all of the advisories for this and previous storms from this year. This time, his 'secret hide-out' lays exposed to the winds his graphics so accurately depict.

jth
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 10 2004 12:51 PM
Falling apart alla Frances???

Ivan seems to be coming apart at the seams like Frances did. I hope this continues because the track looks very bad for Tampa. Also appears to be heading over or just North of Jamaica on current track. Maybe the GFS was right all along and it could miss FL.

andy1tom
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 10 2004 12:53 PM
Re: Falling apart alla Frances???

twc still saying over or to the south but i agree with you

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 10 2004 12:59 PM
Re: Hurricane Ivan Paths

I certainly didn't intend my post to mean that he shouldn't evacuate, as flooding is a serious problem. Heck, here in Tampa we got more flooding from Frances than we ever did with Charley, and I saw with my very own 2 eyes how fast that water rose near downtown Tampa and of course, the elderly people who had to evacuate in Hillsborough County because of a break in the wall and then again when the Peace River overflowed and flooded so many people. With all the rain we've had (including a good 3"+ last night, maybe more) you could throw a puffball at a tree and it would probably fall over. I was only answering how far he should go and I based that on what they told people here in Tampa with Charley and the 2.5million people with Frances.
Sorry for any misunderstanding.

BillD
(User)
Fri Sep 10 2004 01:05 PM
Re: Falling apart alla Frances???

The big difference is that Frances fell apart just before it went over land and never had a chance to reintensify. Ivan has plenty of open ocean to get its act back together. I think its going right over the top of Jamaica. But hopefully Ivan will lose some strength and not regain it before it gets near Jamaica.

Bill

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 10 2004 01:06 PM
Re: Falling apart alla Frances???

Avila noted that in the 5am discussion and said it is probably undergoing another cycle of reformation. The 8am said it could reach CAT5 status before hitting Jamaica.

But I like your idea better. Especially since it would mean a weaker storm before/if it reaches central Florida.

Now this is a first: FNC just did a

"THIS IS A FOX NEWS HURRICANE ALERT"

Now I've seen everything...or I'm getting pretty darned close.

Ricreig
(User)
Fri Sep 10 2004 01:07 PM
Re: Hurricane Ivan Paths

Quote:

Sorry for any misunderstanding.

Absolutely NO misunderstanding on this end. I was simply trying to tell you that you UNDERestimate the value of your opinion. I agreed that he probably should NOT evacuate unless (because of flooding) he lives in a low-flood prone area. Collleen, I am a great fan of yours, having watched your posts literally for years. 'Tis true, you aren't a meterologist, but you have great insight and give generally top-notch advice.

Justin in Miami
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 10 2004 01:31 PM
Re: Falling apart alla Frances???

Colleen that FOX News Hurricane Alert is too much....i guess that fits well with their Terror Alert....Earthquake Alert....Liberal Alert...oh whoops...let's not go there. lol j/k

Honestly, I can't see this storm going over the Charley victims...I almost want to say bring it here to me...at least I have a solid roof to fight the storm! What a year indeed!

BeachBum
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 10 2004 01:34 PM
Re: Evacuation

While I took a crack at where before, WHEN may be more important. If you think evacuation is advisable, you should leave well before it becomes mandatory. If not, you will likely be in an Interstate parking lot.

Also helpful will be alternate routes. Locally, both I-95 and the Beeline (route between Orlando and beaches) were overloaded. By avoiding them, I was able to easily get past Orlando.

Finally, there is no guaranteed safe place. However, from Columbia (or another temporary haven) you can always head in a diiferent direction if the forecast warrants.

Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 10 2004 01:37 PM
Re: Evacuation

As I look at the wather vapor loop, I wonder what the impact will be of the front/line of storm along the SE coast. Looks like Ivan could get caught up in that and go east of FL. Any thoughts?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html

Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 10 2004 01:42 PM
Re: Evacuation

I still wonder about the approaching ridge from the east. Yesterday someone commented that it would be a race.... and it looks like the ridge is winning to me. Shouldn't that send the storm more into the GOM and west of the forecast track?

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 10 2004 01:42 PM
Re: Hurricane Ivan Paths

Just a quick thank you to everyone here for all the information you provide. I've followed canes since Hugo destroyed half the house I was in 15 years ago, but have learned more about how canes work in the past few weeks on here than in the previous 15 yeras.

I live in Greenville, SC, and can say that while Greenville is considered to be very flood prone, it's mostly due to the geographical formation of the area. Alot of hills and mountains produce a number of low lying areas that tend to flood very easily because all the water is rushing there off the hills. The recent flooding in Asheville was considered widespread by the news media, but was really confined to a tight geographical area which all of the locals knew to avoid. If flooding is a reason to avoid Asheville or Greenville, I wouldn't worry about it. Just get a map, and avoid areas around the Reedy and French Broad Rivers, and you should be fine.

As for evacuating to Greenville, if you're new to Charleston you may want to ask some of the locals down there about the evac that took place a few years ago (Floyd). It took my cousin 20 hours to drive up here that day, and all of the hotels would be full.

That being said, I doubt if you'll have to evacuate for this one anyway.

Mozart

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 10 2004 01:42 PM
Eye Problems??

Is the storm suffering shear to the North?, and what happened to the eye?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html

BillD
(User)
Fri Sep 10 2004 01:46 PM
Re: Evacuation

That is what will likely pull Ivan NE at some point, it is the when and how much that is still an unknown. But looking at that same WV loop, you can see the ridge pushing down (the dry air) and moving west, this is what is holding Ivan down, as the ridge weakens and backs off, or Ivan runs past the end of it, Ivan will begin to turn around to the NW then North and eventually NE. Almost all the models predict this, but they differ on when it will happen.

Bill

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 10 2004 01:53 PM
Re: Falling apart alla Frances??? & Richard

LOL...I'm still awaiting a FOX NEWS ALERT to let us all know that the President sneezed in the Oval Office while shaking hands with the Prime Minister of Kumbaya. Then we will have to go into a long drawn-out discussion of whether or not he has SARS.
(sorry mods...need a little humor here to take the edge off frayed nerves).
Maybe if they keep hyping it will make a beeline for Mexico. We can dream.

If the loops they're showing on FNC are current, then Ivan appears to be better organized. I haven't looked yet, so I don't know if they are current or not. If they are, then it was a short period of disorganization. If not, then they should stop showing it.
Richard - thanks.

Be careful with the cable news networks, MSNBC kept showing outdated graphics for 2 days with Frances. FOX tends to keep in line with the NHC.

AgentB
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 10 2004 01:57 PM
Re: Eye Problems??

On the WV loop you can see the high to the west of Florida and the high to the east of Florida that's building in over the Bahamas. Unfortunately you can see the trough currently right over Florida. This is the "alley" that Ivan will eventually take. If the high builds to the west further Ivan gets forced more into the GOM. High recedes back to the east and Ivan makes the north turn early and stays off the coast of Florida. The two highs stay where they are and Ivan tracks up the state, either along one of the two coasts or up the middle.

Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 10 2004 02:02 PM
Re: Eye Problems??

Thanks BillD and AgentB...I see what you mean. It looks at this point, then, that the high is winning and and the ridge is retreating or breaking down.??

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 10 2004 02:03 PM
WV Loops

That is interesting...maybe that's what causing the disruption in the storm.

BillD. has a good point, too. When and where. The $60 million question.

Uh...that would be the $60 BILLION question.

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 10 2004 02:07 PM
RADAR???

The weather channel mentioned looking at the radar for Jamaica, but never showed it. Does anyone know if there is a radar link somewhere to Jamaica?

Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 10 2004 02:09 PM
Re: RADAR???

There is a radio station in Jamaica live on the net, but I haven't been able to get in. FYI:Jamaicagleaner.com.

I think they have maxd out with their connections.

Hurric
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 10 2004 02:13 PM
Re: Hurricane Ivan Paths

Hi first post since Frances, We got hit hard here in Port st Lucie and all of treasure coast. Was a wild ride. on a borrowed computer day 6 without power. Response by FPL and FEMA seems slow.
Trying to recover and prepare for posible Ivan. Not to sound alarmist but state emergency resonse is stretched really thin. I feel If Ivan has a significant impact that it will be very bad for everyone in state. Please prepare now and load even more supplies than you might normally.
Sewage problems a big concern here.
I saw in my not really experienced view winds gusting to around 115-125. Lasted a long time . Tropical storm wind gust lasted more than 36 hours. Barometer at my house ,took a lowest reading of 28.39inches think maybe calibration a tad on low side for my gauge.
Well got to go. It Is really tough trying to prepare for ivan while still in middle of a disaster area.
My thoughts go out to all on board- so good to see it up and running.
Sorry for rambling post, not going to proof it at all . good luck
Hurric

Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 10 2004 02:17 PM
Re: Hurricane Ivan Paths

Just a comment on Electricity.. It takes a while to get it back.. During Andrew I had no power for almost a month, and during Charlie 12 days. So it can take time. Its like I always say, hurricanes are a rush, but cleanup and the aftermath is a bummer.

Bev
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 10 2004 02:19 PM
Re: WV Loops

Quote:

That is interesting...maybe that's what causing the disruption in the storm.

BillD. has a good point, too. When and where. The $60 million question.



If the course holds true and Venice through Tampa take a direct hit, it might be the $60 BILLION question. :-(

-Bev

Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 10 2004 02:19 PM
Jamaica Radio Station

Here is a link to a Jamaican Radio Station http://www.go-jamaica.com/power/

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 10 2004 02:23 PM
JAMAICA

I found what we all will be looking for:

Jamaican Met Service
http://www.metservice.gov.jm/

Jamaican Radar
http://www.metservice.gov.jm/documents/cmax-240-4.gif

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 10 2004 02:30 PM
Re: RADAR???

Looks like Ivan is getting his act back together, looking at this loop:

Latest Goes Floater IR Loop

Also still looks like he's heading in a WNW direction, making a beeline for either western or mid-western part of Jamaica. If the organization keep up, it looks like the storm could be getting broader in size, as it looks like the bands are trying to wrap around all sides of the center. I think.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 10 2004 02:32 PM
Hurric

Glad to hear from you! I'm so glad you're okay. Prayers are with you from here.

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Fri Sep 10 2004 02:32 PM
Re: Eye Problems??

Good morning: AgentB is correct and if you read the Melborne weather statement you see that analysis better than I can make it. The bet now is the ridge will retreat and the storm will turn quickly to the right nobody knows where...
actually there are four players in this mix: 1. Ivan and its intensity...the current situation is rearable...cause: internal disruption due to interaction with Hispanola in the north side of its circulation...that will slacken off as it moves further west...Ivan intensity as forecast is the best assumption.
2. the ULL now at about 30n/55w this has had an influence on the thrust of the ridge to the WSW over the last two days. This has not dived as far down to the sw or maiaintained its vigor as it looked like it would yesterday and if this continues to weaken it will allow the ridge to begin to relax.
3. the atl ridge: see the above for how the pros are forecasting that to play out.
4.The trough on the east coast...not as much of a player as first thought, IMO...the impulse coming across the Tenessee valley has weakened and will move more to the NE than SE

Thus the big player is the axis of the ridge...that is pretty clearly visible on the WV... the WV also shows the moisture path over Florida....the northern most of that is over the big bend area.

Clues for path determination will for me be the moisture streams in the high levels that proceed off the north coast of Cuba as Ivan approaches Cuba from the south. In the case of Charley the storm took a direct path following the flows that lead into Charlotte Harbor.
Even now I am beginning to see the projected future path of the hurricane as directly over or just to the right of the Isle of Youth in a NW direction into the W GOM and then NE back into the middle west coast of Florida. Since this is the WORST case for me personally, and I have already been within 25 miles of the centers of two of these in the last three weeks.. THIS IS NOT A WISHCAT...it is just what I see, unfortunately,

people in my area are taking this very seriously unprecedented boarding up and the like...it is af if an internal sense is triggering something...

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 10 2004 02:33 PM
Re: JAMAICA

Is that radar updating? It says 4:35?

AgentB
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 10 2004 02:33 PM
Re: Eye Problems??

Quote:

Thanks BillD and AgentB...I see what you mean. It looks at this point, then, that the high is winning and and the ridge is retreating or breaking down.??



Well the "ridge" is from the high pressure. The basics are troughs and ridges. On the WV you can see the trough of low pressure squeezed in between the two high pressure systems. With the high pressure(ridge) to the east of Florida building in closer to the state. Currently it's over part of the Bahamas. What will happen is that Ivan will follow along the bottom of the high pressure until it finds the weakness between the two caused by the trough and it will make its turn there and head north. Once it makes the turn that is where it will be going. It will be pretty close to a due north movement once it's turned. Right now it's just a wait and see where the storm makes it turn. Ridge builds further west and the turn comes later, ridge recedes and the turn comes sooner.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Sep 10 2004 02:34 PM
Re: JAMAICA

I mirrored the jamaican radar to try to not overload them

http://images.flhurricane.com/images/jamaicaradar.jpg


It may not be updating any more.


I'd use that to pass around as it can handle a lot more load than their server.

Quote:

I found what we all will be looking for:

Jamaican Met Service
http://www.metservice.gov.jm/

Jamaican Radar
http://www.metservice.gov.jm/documents/cmax-240-4.gif





tenavilla
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Sep 10 2004 02:37 PM
Re: WV Loops

Quote:

If the course holds true and Venice through Tampa take a direct hit, it might be the $60 BILLION question. :-(

-Bev



You're exactly right. My husband is in construction here in Tampa and we were just talking about that. If the eye comes up the bay like they're forecasting now, we're in so much trouble. Frances caused a huge flooding problem and she was weak by the time she got here. Most of downtown is built to pre-Andrew codes, and all the electric is underground. During Charley they shut down the entire downtown power grid to avoid storm surge problems, although I'm not entirely sure that will completely alleviate the problem. I'm really frightened to think of what a hurricane this size can do to a major metropolitan area.

Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 10 2004 02:42 PM
Re: WV Loops

Well, this is indeed a serious problem for the Bay area.
For many many years, we've had drills that focused on a hurricane coming in from the Gulf in through Tampa.
Now it seems that it is a very real possibility.

You're right, no one knows for sure the extent of the damage because there are so many many variables. What is certain is that it will be extensive.
I' don't like posts that use words that would cause people to panic. However, if the track is up the West coast of Florida, Poeple all along the track need to take this storm extremely seriously and make sure you are in a place of safety away from any possible storm surge.

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 10 2004 02:47 PM
Re: JAMAICA

It seems the radar is not updating along with the forecast and warnings on the met page. I wonder if this is why? Meteorologists to strike as Ivan approaches.
http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/html...N_TO_STRIKE.asp

tenavilla
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Sep 10 2004 02:50 PM
Re: WV Loops

My husband just called from Lowe's here in Tampa. He said the lines for plywood were 5 people wide, and looped all the way around the entire store, plus some. The lines for generators were nearly that long, and they don't even have generators right now. They're expecting to get a shipment this morning, but it's not here yet.

Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 10 2004 02:51 PM
11 am IS OUT

Seems odd that track has been shifting right at night and left in the AM. Was the opposite for Francis.. Interesting..

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 10 2004 02:53 PM
State of Emergency for Manatee County?

Just got this email from BayNews9 in Tampa Bay:

Quote:

Manatee County may declare a state of emergency due to Hurricane Ivan.

BN9 has details
Unsubscribe at BayNews9.com



That just got my heart racing a bit. Would they(Manatee County EOC) have been in on the NHC conference call with NWS out of Tampa/Ruskin? I can't imagine them doing it without a good reason. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong about that part of it.

Bev
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 10 2004 02:53 PM
Re: JAMAICA

Quote:

It seems the radar is not updating along with the forecast and warnings on the met page. I wonder if this is why? Meteorologists to strike as Ivan approaches.




Absolutely UNBELIEVABLE! What can they possibly be thinking... they prove their worth during a Hurricane and should be rewarded accordingly. However, taking advantage of such a life-threatening storm to strike is akin to negligence and reckless endangerment.

-Bev

Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Sep 10 2004 02:59 PM
Re: JAMAICA

go to this web page, click on doppler, they have both short and long range views, last update I got was 9:15 am

you can see the center on the long range

http://www.metservice.gov.jm/

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 10 2004 03:04 PM
Trying to keep my chin up

Well, not much more prep I can do. Never undid any of the prep for Frances. Looks like Charley Part II to me right now. Only saving grace for me will be that I have DirecTV Sunday Ticket and have something else to watch if the tv goes into all hurricane all the time mode again. This hurricane season can not end fast enough for me.

I think if there is a little more consistency and tight grouping that appears to be starting in the models, the NHC will be shifting the path to the right at 5:00PM. Just wondering about timing myself right now. Hoping it does not slow down on forward motion too much. If the storm is going to come through, it might be better for it to zip on by then to drag on through.

Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 10 2004 03:06 PM
Re: State of Emergency for Manatee County?

Colleen, have you checked out the latest guess at the track?
It's the worse case scenario for all the west coast florida counties. A hurricane moving north just off the coast pounding wind and storm surge into the coast.

It might be better if the storm were inland .....

LI Phil
(User)
Fri Sep 10 2004 03:09 PM
Good News/Bad News

There ain't much good news...but at least the lastest advisory has Ivan "only" as a CAT III at landfall. Bad news...just click on the NHC map to the left of this post. Look where they're calling for the landfall...right smack over and thru Tampa Bay. NHC has been pretty spot on so far with this one, so I think you west coasters better think about getting on I75 before it's a parking lot...

I still feel this will make landfall further south, hopefully at or near the intersection of the Everglades Parkway & I 75 (sorry Naples)...then up North across Okeechobee and out near the Space Coast. Wherever it landfalls, and it will be FLORIDA's West Coast, not the panhandle, it's not going to be good.

I pray for everyone in Ivan's path...at the very least, with two "Practice" runs, at least everyone should be able to secure life and property to the best extent possible.

Grenada is a total wasteland (anyone see the pix?) and I think Jamaica is next for a pounding, big time. Maybe the Jamaican's can work a little voodoo on Ivan??? Jah Mon.

Phil

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Fri Sep 10 2004 03:12 PM
Re: Good News/Bad News

Nothing in the 11:00 that changes any assumption not already built into the forecast...just continue to watch that ridge...last look i had it was still building west and had touched SE Florida

trinibaje
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 10 2004 03:16 PM
Re: Good News/Bad News

Phi I agree with you on the path although my gut is more through the everglades impacting western portions of miami dade. Just gut, nothing scientific as i am not a met....

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 10 2004 03:20 PM
Ivan

Well, it's gonna be close..whether inland or not. I don't know how big it is compared to Frances or Charley, but I'm still not comfortable with a track that close to us. It has not changed a whole lot in the last two days at all.
Also...did you notice how long it takes to get from the west coast to inland? Almost 24 hours. Yikes!

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 10 2004 03:22 PM
Re: Hurricane Ivan Paths

11am NHC has it going over Tampa, any indications that it will follow a path simpliar to Charley?

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 10 2004 03:24 PM
Re: Good News/Bad News

Morning, Phil! That's the 5AM map..but they might as well just leave it up until 5pm.
If the storm makes landfall further south, we'll be in the ne quadrant of the storm.
No scenarios are looking like any fun right now.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 10 2004 03:25 PM
Re: Trying to keep my chin up

I agree the 5pm should shift right to be in line with most models. I was surprised they bumped it a little left at 11. As usual the NHC likes to follow the GFDL, so we may not see the shift unless that model bends more to the right. With the ridge building more to the West we may see this thing really slow down.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 10 2004 03:25 PM
Re: Ivan

Still W/O power in Palm Bay....yuck.......looks like Ivan has grown a bit in overall size, and a recent convective burst is occurring. He should move over Jamaica later, but as advertised, should re-strengthen when he gets past Jamaica. A dangerous hurricane. Should come in at or just south of Tampa and head NNE. GROANZZZZZZZZZZ!! I can't even get a cup of clean coffee!!

LI Phil
(User)
Fri Sep 10 2004 03:27 PM
Attachment
Re: Hurricane Ivan Paths

I find it most interesting the NHC path...when almost all of the other models (see attachment) take Ivan more easterly...and eventually into the Atlantic (of course, across FL).

Kdubs
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 10 2004 03:29 PM
Re: Good News/Bad News

Does anyone have a link to pictures from Grenada? I hear about them a lot, but haven't found them on the net?

Thanks

rickonboat
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Sep 10 2004 03:30 PM
Sorry for ya'll

Really am...and not wanting this thing to hit anyone. There doesn't seem to be any good scenario on the horizon, that I can see...except that the hurricane gets killed when it goes through Cuba....the long range forecast, however, seems a little in doubt. I sure have to hand it to the NHC...they are WAY ahead of the game..seem to have a great handle on what is going on. I will dispense with dire prediction of Mobile for the moment...anyone see anything out there, however, that would endanger my area?....hope for sure this doesn't do to Tampa..what the possibilities are....at any rate...here is a clip of the latest from the NHC...which is why I am wondering about things...


THERE IS STILL HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST BUT...IT BECOMES
UNCERTAIN AFTER THE HURRICANE CROSSES CUBA WHEN GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT
THE HURRICANE COULD CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO OR COULD TURN
NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER FLORIDA. IN FACT...THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT FAVOR ONE
SCENARIO MORE THAN THE OTHER...AND BRINGS THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO VERY NEAR AND EVENTUALLY OVER FLORIDA.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 10 2004 03:32 PM
Re: Ivan

Oh Steve! I was so worried about you! Glad to hear you're okay...although without power. Yuck is right.

So, now they throw in some "shearing" to the mix. Why don't we throw in a couple of eggs, some water and make a doggone cake while we're at it!!! Ack!

LI Phil
(User)
Fri Sep 10 2004 03:33 PM
Attachment
Re: Good News/Bad News

Morning Colleen!

FWIW, here's the accuwx pro graphic featuring 2 possible track scenarios...and ain't neither of them good (click attachment)

Kal
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Sep 10 2004 03:34 PM
Re: Hurricane Ivan Paths

Think the NHC is still leaning a little on the FSU ensemble Phil? If it's still trending west maybe they are hedging their bets to some degree. The slight left shift at 11am surprised me, given the latest model runs available to the public. I completely expected a move eastward. Guess it's a good thing I'm a historian and not a weatherman.

Kdubs
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 10 2004 03:34 PM
Re: Ivan

Quote:

Still W/O power in Palm Bay....yuck.......looks like Ivan has grown a bit in overall size, and a recent convective burst is occurring. He should move over Jamaica later, but as advertised, should re-strengthen when he gets past Jamaica. A dangerous hurricane. Should come in at or just south of Tampa and head NNE. GROANZZZZZZZZZZ!! I can't even get a cup of clean coffee!!



Hang in there, Palm Bay. I was without power in Orlando for 5 days and people in Kissimmee were without for almost 2 weeks. It will get better though. Fortunately, the 7-11 on the corner had hot coffee available (even though the line - and I'm not exaggerating - circled the store 2 times).

Good luck, you are in our prayers.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 10 2004 03:36 PM
Re: Hurricane Ivan Paths

Why do they say "CLOSE TO AND EVENTUALLY RIGHT OVER FLORIDA" and then shift the track to the left? Why don't they just leave the stupid thing there until the next update. Maybe they should only change the track twice a day, instead of 4 times a day.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 10 2004 03:39 PM
Curious!

I have to ask this question so I can learn because I get lost when it comes to troughs versus ridges. We know we have a high that is sitting a little to the west of Texas that appears to be building to the east and southeast. We know about the high that is close to Florida and seems to be building to the west. Then we have the trough in the middle of the two highs that seems to be pretty close to Florida. My question is this; can two highs building in from opposite directions squeeze a trough and cause the trough to begin to retreat north? I know to many that this is a very dumb question but the only way for me to continue to learn is to ask it.

By the way, this has NOTHING to do about wishcasting Ivan to Texas. There is 0% of that happening and I don't want him here anyway.

This question just came to me as I was watching the WV loops and seeing how the trough seemed to be getting squashed by the two highs.

ShawnS

LI Phil
(User)
Fri Sep 10 2004 03:40 PM
Re: Hurricane Ivan Paths

>>> Think the NHC is still leaning a little on the FSU ensemble Phil?

Excellent question...since I'm not a paying customer of their's, I'm not sure WHAT their take is...unfortunately, even if I DID know, I couldn't tell you anyway...that being said, I think you probably are hitting the nail squarely on the head...why else would their track be so much further west than all but the GFDL? You may be an historian, but you also have a pretty good sixth sense.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 10 2004 03:42 PM
Re: Good News/Bad News

Can they come up with one that says "GOOD"?

ROB H
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 10 2004 03:43 PM
Re: Tampa bays worst nightmare

The latest track from the NHC is the worst case scenario for
the Tampa bay area. It would devastate pinellas county and
cause massive flooding in areas that are not already under
water.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 10 2004 03:48 PM
Re: Hurricane Ivan Paths

Thanks to all the folks who took the time to respond to my question about where to evacuate to from Charleston, SC if the necessity arises. I really appreciate the insights.

I am in an area where I don't really have any water concerns - but my house is completely surrounded by trees. Every big gust of wind causes my heart to skip a beat.

As a former resident of Jax, FL, I send my prayers to all residents of that great state.

Eric_in_SC

jth
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 10 2004 03:57 PM
Re: Hurricane Ivan Paths

Ivan appears to have jogged west again and may actually just miss Jamaica to the south. Jamaica was my barometer. If it goes south of Jamaica, then I think it could quite possibly becaome a north central to NE Gulf hit. MS, AL, FL.

Another question....what is supposed to cause the shear? If it is the trough, what happens if the trough does not dig as far south??? Does Ivan mainatin strength til landfall?

LI Phil
(User)
Fri Sep 10 2004 03:57 PM
Ridges and Troughs

simple explanation

andy1tom
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 10 2004 03:57 PM
Re: Hurricane Ivan Paths

collen,
remember that the panhandle is part of florida too even if most refer to us as lower ala. i am curious as to how much the forcast is off on the jamaica hit. if it is farther west and doesn't make that northern turn soon the panhandle could be the bullseye but the west coast is still gonna get hammered too. remember with francis we keep waiting for that north turn that never came. also one thing to remember is this year they are doing that 5 day thing instead of 3 so their forecast are gonna change more on the longer time frame

rmbjoe1954
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 10 2004 04:04 PM
Re: Hurricane Ivan Paths

That is sooo right. that 5 day forecast creates lower confidence for days 4 & 5. Even so, with Ivan I would expect that n-NE turn at some point so I would not expect the panhandle to bear the brunt. Yes, it would be impacted- but not directly.

Storm Cooper
(User)
Fri Sep 10 2004 04:05 PM
Re: Hurricane Ivan Paths

If it travels to the south of Jamaica I would be a little more concerned for the panhandle.

andy1tom
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 10 2004 04:08 PM
Re: Hurricane Ivan Paths

yes but the longer it takes the greater the chances.. then if it takes too long it may move west of here.. still not calling for rick to abandon ship yet and i don't think tampa is outta of the woods but by the 5 advisory we should have a better grip on it. guess what i am saying is "i don't know"

LI Phil
(User)
Fri Sep 10 2004 04:12 PM
ERC

Ivan seems to be undergoing another Eyewall Replacement Cycle which, depending upon the timing of it's completion, could spell even worse news for Jamaica-mon. Also, I don't see him missing Jamaica to the south...looks to be straight across the island...

tenavilla
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Sep 10 2004 04:16 PM
Re: ERC

I agree. I just looked at the latest loop with the forecast points overlay, and it seems to be right on track for Jamaica. Plus, the eye is looking much healthier in the last hour.

javlin
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 10 2004 04:16 PM
Re: Hurricane Ivan Paths

I was using the same guide lines myself but I think that bucket has holes in it.I do think Ivan might just clip the SW edge of Jamaica.I think Ivan looking more WNW lately.Still the slow down in forward speed says alot to me anyway.The ridge is weakening some and a change of direction is to come.The site FrankP put up early kinda of shows the WNW motion.

rmbjoe1954
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 10 2004 04:17 PM
Re: ERC

Then I see the entire peninsula of Florida in its direct path, but the only saving grace is that Ivan will more than likely trek across eastern Coobah that would potentially reduce its strength. The 800 pound gorilla could look like a tired 200 pound weakling- but still with potent energy unfortunately.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 10 2004 04:30 PM
Re: ERC

Don't count on a 200 lb. Chimp. The air temp around Jamacia is about 82F. As Ivan approaches 86-88F temps on the way to coobaa, you'll see Ivan intensify back to a Cat 5...
30 mi across coobaa is NOT enough to slow him down now, as his Eye will cross coobaa in 2 -21/2 hrs... Then it's MORE warm (86-88F) air until Fla...
Yea, I believe he could turn East, but anyway you look at it, it's time to batten down the hatches, and then say "I'm outta here, baby!

Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Fri Sep 10 2004 04:34 PM
Re: ERC

Models have merged around the point of impact for Charley. This is going to be a mess for those of you in Central and south Florida. If the Japanese typhoons telegraphed the movement of this system, look for a long slow crawl north after landfall. Looks to be a 1-2-3 punch for Florida with the Gulf season still yet to begin. If there's one thing I can be thankful for it's that my insurance was just renewed in July. I can't wait to see what 2005 has in store!

Steve

LI Phil
(User)
Fri Sep 10 2004 04:34 PM
Attachment
Ivan Damage Photo-Grenada

See attachment

Takingforever
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 10 2004 04:35 PM
Closing time

Lets see right now...MSNBC has a loop of Ivan on the bottom right on their channel and talking about the last fight out of there(FL). TWC is in Tampa talking about leaving and taking cover, and Fox is talking about Jamaica, Cuba, and mud slides and flooding.

Nothing on CNN yet, but, I see that coming when it his Jamaica.

HCW
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 10 2004 04:37 PM
Re: Closing time

Hold the phone boys and girls


The FSU Super Ensemble Model takes this storm west with a landfall west of Pensacola .

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 10 2004 04:39 PM
some input from outside FL

The local met in New Orleans just posted this on one of the New Orleans boards
Could be better news for peninsula FL? (I sure hope so)

BTW -- I cant seem to login -- not sure whats up

NEW INFORMATION - The FSU Super Ensemble Model Trends WEST.

Contacts tell me the FSU S.E. model (probably the best model out there) has trended west with the 7pm run from last night, now showing a landfall west of Pensacola, FL. It seems to be picking up on a ridge which is decaying less than what was previously thought. This means the panhandle is certainly still under the gun.

As stated in my previous discussion below, for this thing to do what the models are saying and go up FL proper, a bunch of variables will have to come together just right and the uncertainty remains pretty high that will happen, imo. NHC has their track right on top of the GFDL model now.

Based on this new information about the S.E. model, and my gut feelings all along, I feel as though this track may be too far east. Look for a possible shift in the track eventually if the FSU S.E. continues this trend.

What does this mean for us? Well, it means we are certainly not out of the woods altogether, nor have we been. However, *nothing* I have seen even suggests it will make it this far west and there is new model evidence to suggest that may be difficult. Like David said, the models are a little stronger on this little mini trough coming our way which would tend to keep Ivan away from us. But anywhere along the FL panhandle to Miami appears to be the highest risk at this point, with perhaps the risk increasing for the FL panhandle.

Even though it looks like a strike somewhere in FL is the best bet, there's still the posibility it could come far enough west to get everyone around here nervous.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 10 2004 04:40 PM
Re: ERC

I totally agree on the ERC occuring right now. I think this is whats causing some to see a more WNW direction. The last IR Sat appears to show the eye make a western movement, but the center of the central dense overcast continues on that 300 to 305 bearing. I think we will see the newly formed eye pop out in the cdo within the next few hours.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 10 2004 04:41 PM
Re: ERC

This is first post on site. Have been on site for 2 weeks now and just want to thank all for info and to keep up the good work. My questions is if Ivan goes over eastern Jamaica wont the mts there rip storm apart. If im right mts are as much as 7500 feet high there. It just seems like that terrain would do quite a bit of damage to storm. Again thanks to all who help site as good as it is.

Bev
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 10 2004 04:45 PM
Re: Closing time

Quote:


The FSU Super Ensemble Model takes this storm west with a landfall west of Pensacola .



Oh my! That is news. Not good news for the folks up there, but I have to admit just the tiniest flicker of hope from the Tampa Bay area here.

Does the FSU Superensemble show it scraping along the FL West Coast or staying further offshore?

ShaggyDude
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 10 2004 04:46 PM
Re: ERC

I'd have to say Ivan is getting it's act back together. The latest visible shows an eye trying to pop out.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg

Ed Hinman
(Registered User)
Fri Sep 10 2004 04:46 PM
Re: Ivan Damage Photo-Grenada

For those looking for Grenada Pics.... Check out...
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/2004/grenada.shtml

Kal
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Sep 10 2004 04:48 PM
Re: Closing time

I thought the FSU Super Ensemble might be pointing at something other than a SW Florida hit. That's the only explanation that I could fathom as to why the NHC track shifted slightly to the left at 11am (though I think the SW Florida scenario is most likely at this point). I suppose we'll see just how much weight the NHC folks put behind this model when the next advisory is issued.



Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 10 2004 04:48 PM
Re: ERC

The FSU has been a western Outlier since the 5AM forecast.. So this is not new news.. They even mentioned this is in the 5AM..

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 10 2004 04:50 PM
Looking at the Jamician radar

It really looks like it is on a collision course with Kingston. I know there is distance issues. However, the presentation seems pretty good. Plus the radar site is up higher, so they can probably aim lower. Does not look good for the island.

AgentB
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 10 2004 04:51 PM
Re: Closing time

Just got back from lunch and started checking the loops and models again. Only thing I can say right now is "wow" because the high pressure ridge to the east of Florida has impressively built further south and west, touching the southeast coast of Florida. Now whether this continues building further west or not remains to be seen, but it definitely bears close watching.

Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 10 2004 04:57 PM
Re: Closing time

12Z NOGAPS is much closer to the West Coast of Florida than previous 00Z Model.

Kal
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Sep 10 2004 05:02 PM
Re: Closing time

Latest NOGAPS (12z) trends east of the previous run, though still west (panhandle/big bend) of most models.

Just curious, how often does FSU run the Super Ensemble?

Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 10 2004 05:11 PM
Re: Closing time

Looking elongated in this pic:

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

What does that mean? Someone posted last week about F. that it means that the storm will be shifting in that direction.

alley
(Registered User)
Fri Sep 10 2004 05:11 PM
Re: TAMPA

Please give my thanks to Thomas. Do you or Thomas or anyone else know what the storm surge would be for Tampa Bay if Ivan touches the coast while heading north and what the surge would be if we take a direct hit? I've had no luck using Google finding answers to these questions. Local mets do mention storm surge but only that it will occur...of course, I may have missed that info if it was given because I'm channel hopping while surfing the 'Net.

AgentB
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 10 2004 05:12 PM
Re: Closing time

Hmm...I think I see what's happening here. The former TD 10 is moving almost due west. This movement has caused the high pressure ridge to the east of Florida to build further west/southwest. I know that this system had been forecast to move more SSE, and probably wasn't going to affect the high pressure ridge too much, but currently it seems to be responsible for pushing the ridge further and further over Florida.

LI Phil
(User)
Fri Sep 10 2004 05:15 PM
Tampa SLOSH map from Georges

This should give you an idea of surge flooding from a CAT III...not good.

Also shows Pensacola & PCB regions

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 10 2004 05:20 PM
Re: Closing time

The ridge was forecast to build across FL today and tonight. The upper level low between 50 and 60 is going to ride the southern periphery of the high and begin to erode the ridge in 24-48 hours. This is what should start the NW - NNW - N motion. The timing of the upper low arrival is critical. The lates Vapor loop shows some western progress of the low.

alley
(Registered User)
Fri Sep 10 2004 05:22 PM
Re: Tampa SLOSH map from Georges

Thanks LI Phil. Guess I can kiss my house goodbye before we leave...not bending over to kiss the other.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 10 2004 05:24 PM
Re: Rapid Scan Operation

WOW......they now have goes east in super rapid scan....looks like every min or two...... amazing sat pics....looks like the will pass over the southern side of jamica....don't think it will miss the island

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 10 2004 05:25 PM
Re: ERC

An observation from a fire weather forecaster in the frozen North. There has been some discussion about Cuba's topography and its ability to affect intensity....In western Cuba the highest peaks are 300m (the projected path of Ivan). In central Cuba the highest peak is 1100m. In eastern Cuba the highest peak is 1800m. Bottom line is that there is little to no potential for topography to influence the intensity of this storm. Jamaica is the same story. Intensity will be a function of eyewall replacement, shear and SSTs.

StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 10 2004 05:25 PM
Re: ERC

Quote:

This is first post on site. Have been on site for 2 weeks now and just want to thank all for info and to keep up the good work. My questions is if Ivan goes over eastern Jamaica wont the mts there rip storm apart. If im right mts are as much as 7500 feet high there. It just seems like that terrain would do quite a bit of damage to storm. Again thanks to all who help site as good as it is.



Given the small size of Jamaica compared to the robust size of Ivan, it won't do much to weaken him. The center of Ivan would not be over Jamaica for a long period of time. Cuba has a better chance of disrupting things if Ivan moves more towards central Cuba. If he passes through the Isle of Youth like Charley, Cuba won't weaken him that much either.

LI Phil
(User)
Fri Sep 10 2004 05:29 PM
SLOSH map for Mobile

Mobile

Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 10 2004 05:32 PM
Hawaii has some pretty water vapor images

You can almost see where this thing is headed by looking at this... http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sti...amp;overlay=off

Bev
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 10 2004 05:34 PM
Re: SLOSH map for Mobile

Quote:

Mobile



How are you getting these slosh maps? Can someone point me in that direction or provide me with a Slosh of Manatee County hit? My area is just south of the Tampa info already provided. My home is located directly on Palma Sola Bay.

Thanks!
Bev

Google...I'll try to find one for your area

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Fri Sep 10 2004 05:37 PM
Re: Closing time

Sorry, but you're getting some wrong information again. The Superensemble has never called for a landfall west of Pensacola; in fact, the 12z run today is the first one that even brings it to landfall...and I'll tell you this much: it's 200+ miles from Pensacola, and not west.

The FSU Superensemble has consistantly been on the left hand side of the track guidance. The NHC official is almost directly over the GFDL, the ensemble mean, and the GUNA (GFDL, UKMET, NOGAPS, AVN) consensus. Both have track errors from Frances of just 150mi. at 5 days, a very low error and both by far the best. FSU Superensemble says Panhandle, NHC says Tampa...we'll see what happens.

But I can assure you and everyone out there that it does not say west of Pensacola, and never has.

AgentB
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 10 2004 05:38 PM
Re: Closing time

Quote:

The ridge was forecast to build across FL today and tonight. The upper level low between 50 and 60 is going to ride the southern periphery of the high and begin to erode the ridge in 24-48 hours.



The low you are referring to is what I was referring to as the remnants of TD 10. From what I had seen/read it was supposed to track more SSE, and not due west like it is currently doing. From what I see this due west movement has served to build the ridge further south than what I had seen forecasted. Truthfully I am surprised to see the ridge build almost to Cuba as it has this afternoon. Obviously a lot can change in just a matter of hours, and the ridge can retreat just as quick as it strengthened. However, it bears close watching as it will have a firsthand impact on where Ivan tracks.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 10 2004 05:38 PM
Re: SLOSH map for Mobile

Quote:

Quote:

Mobile



How are you getting these slosh maps? Can someone point me in that direction or provide me with a Slosh of Manatee County hit? My area is just south of the Tampa info already provided. My home is located directly on Palma Sola Bay.

Thanks!
Bev

Google...I'll try to find one for your area




I used to live on Anna Marie Island. I fear that a at 3 would devastate that island

Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 10 2004 05:38 PM
Re: Hawaii has some pretty water vapor images

Good link. Ivan and TD 10 are connected by a flow. Is there a name for this....what impact on track? Sorry, guys, I have a lot more questions than answers.

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Fri Sep 10 2004 05:38 PM
Re: Closing time

It is run every 6 hrs.

As an aside, confidence in the panhandle forecast is eroding with time as the pattern evolves, but I'm still sticking to my guns there...as is the Superensemble, like it has for 3 days now.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 10 2004 05:39 PM
Re: Closing time

If my memory is correct, I think they run it every 24 hours. The data collection and input takes between 10-16 hours. By the way the history of the ensemble has a 225+ mile error at 5 days.

GaryC
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 10 2004 05:40 PM
Re: Closing time

Hey clark, I for one am glad to see you post that. Cause I was real confused for a while. Thanks!

HCW
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 10 2004 05:41 PM
Re: SLOSH map for Mobile

Quote:

Mobile



Thanks I may need that

RMagic
(Registered User)
Fri Sep 10 2004 05:43 PM
Re: WV Loops

Quote:

Quote:

If the course holds true and Venice through Tampa take a direct hit, it might be the $60 BILLION question. :-(

-Bev



You're exactly right. My husband is in construction here in Tampa and we were just talking about that. If the eye comes up the bay like they're forecasting now, we're in so much trouble. Frances caused a huge flooding problem and she was weak by the time she got here. Most of downtown is built to pre-Andrew codes, and all the electric is underground. During Charley they shut down the entire downtown power grid to avoid storm surge problems, although I'm not entirely sure that will completely alleviate the problem. I'm really frightened to think of what a hurricane this size can do to a major metropolitan area.




my parents live in evacuation level 3 in south tampa. During Frances water came within about 4 blocks of their house. If Ivan were to give a direct hit....i think everyone can just kiss the city of tampa goodbye.

The thing that really upsets me tho....is all the yuppies in south tampa that think the city has some kind of silver bullet. The night before we evacuated for Charley (i was down from UF b/w semesters at the time), the idiots were throwing PARTIES throughout the area. It's just ridiculous...

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Fri Sep 10 2004 05:43 PM
Re: Hawaii has some pretty water vapor images

Ivan and TD 10 really aren't linked...there is an upper low to the NE of Ivan that is helping to evacuate its outflow. To the NE of that, there is another smaller upper low, followed by yet another a bit to the NE of that by the Azores. This link will have no effect on the track of Ivan; the only impacts will likely be felt by what the larger upper low and a weaker vortex just NE of the Bahamas do to the subtropical ridge steering the storm, not any link to other systems well to the NE.

belleami
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 10 2004 05:46 PM
Re: Closing time

Quote:

It is run every 6 hrs.

As an aside, confidence in the panhandle forecast is eroding with time as the pattern evolves, but I'm still sticking to my guns there...as is the Superensemble, like it has for 3 days now.


Clark, my personal psychic ensemble shows it bouncing off Steinhatchee, and ricocheting towards Tallahassee - don't you all have a super-collider over there too? How about trying to boiung! it back out in the Gulf?
Susie

kelcot
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 10 2004 05:47 PM
Re: Hawaii has some pretty water vapor images

good afternoon ya'll. I just got on the site for the first time today. And I'm sure that this question has been answered........ Are we looking at a Tampa hit or around a PCB hit? If he does make landfall in Tampa, any idea where he'll go from there? Is the east coast safe?

StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 10 2004 05:48 PM
Re: Hawaii has some pretty water vapor images

I lost track of former TD #10. Is that the swirl that is now at 30N 60W and racing westward?

MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 10 2004 05:48 PM
Re: WV Loops

When I was a kid, I remember seeing a film strip in school showing the people who threw the hurricane party for Camille. Needless to say, what they experienced was far worse than any hangover they ever had.

Note on the new GFS: It is still farthest east, but the one thing it has been consistent on is parking it in the Carolinas. I'm not ready to buy that one yet either.

As far as Jamaica, Gilbert never weakened while crossing it, although it may have slowed down its rate of strengthening. I am not so sure it will have a big impact. As the last day has shown, the storm could weaken like that on its own. It does look like dry air got entrained, possibly a result of the land masses to its north. No new vortex messages out yet either.

SkeetoBiteAdministrator
(Master of Maps)
Fri Sep 10 2004 05:49 PM
Re: Hurricane Ivan Paths



A little later this time. Was out saving the world...

Full size image available at: Skeetobite.com

Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 10 2004 05:50 PM
Re: Tampa SLOSH map from Georges

Not fun at all. I just moved into my house about a month ago over next to the bay. I've headed to Atlanta for the weekend and probably will wait to see if I'm heading back Sunday night. I'm just hoping my roommate/friend is able to head over to West Palm Saturday via the train, because I really wouldn't want her to be stuck in the house. Ugh. One month in the house. and all of this. No wonder I still consider Atlanta home

Mark

LI Phil
(User)
Fri Sep 10 2004 05:51 PM
Florida SLOSH Maps

I'll put up as many as I can find...

Collier County

CFHC links...scroll down and look at county info

RMagic
(Registered User)
Fri Sep 10 2004 05:59 PM
Re: WV Loops

Quote:

When I was a kid, I remember seeing a film strip in school showing the people who threw the hurricane party for Camille. Needless to say, what they experienced was far worse than any hangover they ever had.



yeah....my parents have told me stories about that storm. I just can't grasp the stupidity of some people..

Also - not that anyone cares but Gainesville got hit pretty hard by Frances. Lots of downed trees. At one point over 3/4ths of the county didn't have power. Sewage problems also occurred as many lift stations for sewage didn't have power. I can post pictures if anyone's interested....

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 10 2004 06:00 PM
Re: Florida SLOSH Maps

If Ivan passes the Tampa Bays Area offshore what does that mean for the storm surge for Tampa and the surrounding barrier islands?

Storm Cooper
(User)
Fri Sep 10 2004 06:04 PM
Re: Florida SLOSH Maps

http://flhurricane.com/links.php

Follow the link LI Phil put up.... he is getting it as fast as he can.

AgentB
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 10 2004 06:05 PM
Re: WV Loops

Quote:

Also - not that anyone cares but Gainesville got hit pretty hard by Frances. Lots of downed trees. At one point over 3/4ths of the county didn't have power. Sewage problems also occurred as many lift stations for sewage didn't have power. I can post pictures if anyone's interested....



My sister goes to UF(Go Gators!...lol) and she said it was pretty bad in some areas. She ended up losing power while I never did.

Anyway, 2pm update just out and Ivan has moved much further west than north. .3 degrees north and .7 degrees west. Winds are still 145mph, pressure is 939mb and winds extend out 60mi(hurr.)/175mi(t.s.)

Bev
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 10 2004 06:05 PM
Re: Florida SLOSH Maps

Quote:

I'll put up as many as I can find...
Collier County




Thanks Phil! I'm still searching for Manatee SLOSH and wrote to the EOC here but they are probably far too busy to respond. I'll post it if I find one.

Thanks!
-Bev

LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Sep 10 2004 06:07 PM
FSU ensemble vs The Models?

Isn't the NHC track really a case of walking between the two right now? And, in their own discussion earlier they indicated there was a great uncertainty down the road. Something about it could possibly at some point even go NNE?

Interested to see next set of runs.

And again.. see which model tracks are the most consistent over the long term.

Isn't it possible that as opposed to think the GFS set are garbage in and out that they see something and hang with it vs something the other models discount?

watching a Cane fan in Miami

Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Fri Sep 10 2004 06:08 PM
Re: Florida SLOSH Maps

>>The night before we evacuated for Charley (i was down from UF b/w semesters at the time), the idiots were throwing PARTIES throughout the area. It's just ridiculous...

We've been known to party in New Orleans from time to time when hit by a hurricane. Then again, we've been known to party because it's Wednesday at 3:00

The story about the hurricane party on the MS was somewhat debunked in recent times. Snopes doesn't have anything on it, but I distinctly recall coming across some new information on that whole thing a few years back.

Steve

Mozart
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 10 2004 06:08 PM
Re: Florida SLOSH Maps

Here's one for your reference, Phil. It covers the entire state of South Carolina.

South Carolina SLOSH model

Click in the middle where it says "Flood Zones: Do you live in one?" This will give the SLOSH map for the entire state.

(Unfortunately you have to go this way. You can't just link directly to the map for some reason.)

tenavilla
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Sep 10 2004 06:15 PM
Re: Florida SLOSH Maps

This isn't the most detailed map I've ever seen, but try this link:

Florida Disaster Public Maps

AgentB
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 10 2004 06:16 PM
Re: Florida SLOSH Maps

Surge maps for Volusia/Brevard/Indian River/St Lucie/Martin Counties. Try checking your local NWS site as I found these on the local NWS(Melbourne) site.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/atlas.html

MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 10 2004 06:17 PM
New Vortex message

262
URNT12 KNHC 101738
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/1738Z
B. 16 DEG 45 MIN N
75 DEG 42 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2568 M
D. 90 KT
E. 111 DEG 016 NM
F. 183 DEG 112 KT
G. 095 DEG 010 NM
H. 940 MB
I. 9 C/ 3063 M
J. 17 C/ 3068 M
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C16
N. 12345/07
O. .1/1 NM
P. AF984 1509A IVAN OB 07
MAX FL WIND 112 KT E QUAD 1735Z.

One difference that stands out vs. the last one, is that it now has a closed eyewall. Pressure is also the highest it has been in a while, but we'll see if it responds to the recent eyewall closing and convection.

Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 10 2004 06:19 PM
Re: New Vortex message

940 mb's good news.
let's hope the pressure keeps rising.

LI Phil
(User)
Fri Sep 10 2004 06:19 PM
Thanks everyone

You guys are doing better than I am...throw them all up here...they're bound to help someone.

Thank your newest Moderator, Storm Cooper, for this one.

santa rosa

the mother lode

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 10 2004 06:20 PM
More and More West

Folks, if Ivan continues on the path he is currently on he is going to miss Jamaica to the south by a good margin. What changes, if any, could this mean for more of a panhandle or Alabama landfall? Or I guess it could also be more east as a landfall!?!?

What are you talking about? He's taking dead aim at the Island.

ShawnS

MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 10 2004 06:23 PM
Re: More and More West

I think it is too early to tell. It could be a wobble, or an ERC. The models don't seem to have changed much yet. Here is the model run discussion from this morning:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html

rickonboat
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Sep 10 2004 06:25 PM
Re: More and More West

I thought yesterday the storm would go south of Jamaica about 60-100 miles...and now...it looks like that is correct. As I fear, the WORST CASE SCENARIO for us is for the storm to traverse the Yucatan Channel...

what are the "experts" saying now?

MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 10 2004 06:29 PM
Re: More and More West

overlaying the forecast plots onto the satellite, and it looks to be right where projected.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

LI Phil
(User)
Fri Sep 10 2004 06:30 PM
Re: More and More West

This map shows storm surge for a hurricane hitting Mobile Bay. Notice that it shows how much destruction a CAT V would cause...

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 10 2004 06:31 PM
li phil

What's your deal with all the edits? Are you getting power hungry or something? The last couple of hrs certainly shows a more westerly track and I'm not the only one who is seeing it. If it DOES CONTINUE this the eye will go south of Jamaica.

ShawnS

Kdubs
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 10 2004 06:33 PM
Re: ERC

I hate to bother you weather brains out there, but can someone tell me what an "SST" is? Thanks

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 10 2004 06:33 PM
Re: More and More West

If it is going 60-100 miles south of Jamica, then someone just moved the island 60-100 miles north. Think you need new glasses on this one, riconaboat.

Storm Cooper
(User)
Fri Sep 10 2004 06:35 PM
Re: ERC

Sea Surface Temps

WeatherNLU
(Meteorologist)
Fri Sep 10 2004 06:35 PM
Re: ERC

Quote:

I hate to bother you weather brains out there, but can someone tell me what an "SST" is? Thanks



Depends on the context, but probably sea surface temperature.

Jamiewx
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 10 2004 06:35 PM
NWS Tampa Discussion

Kdub, SST stands for Sea Surface Temperature.

Note the discussion says the center will skirt jamaica's south coast.

Here is some of the NWS Tampa Bay Discussion from this afternoon.

".LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT - FRI)...IN GENERAL...IT'S NOT A MATTER OF WHERE...OR PERHAPS WHEN...AS MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE. THE WHERE IS...FOR THE FOURTH TIME THIS SEASON(BONNIE/CHARLEY/FRANCES/IVAN)...THE STATE OF FLORIDA. THE WHEN IS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON WHICH PART OF THE STATE YOU LIVE. HOWEVER...AS WITH CHARLEY...THE EVENTUAL PRECISE TRACK IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT A GENERAL NORTH HEADING MEANS THE STORM COULD LANDFALL ANYWHERE ON THE PENINSULA WITH JUST A NUDGE.

THE OMINOUS SIGNS POINT TO THE EASTERN GULF COAST ANYWHERE FROM THE KEYS TO THE BIG BEND AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK WNW. APPEARS RESTRENGTHENING INNER EASTERN EYEWALL WILL POUND JAMAICA THIS EVENING AS THE CENTER SKIRTS THE ISLAND'S SOUTH COAST...THEN A SLIGHTLY SLOWER...BUT STILL STEADY...MOTION WILL ENSUE AS IT EASES TOWARD THE WESTERN CUBA COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY.

AT THAT TIME...WE SHOULD KNOW WHETHER THE STORM WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE PENINSULA OR PERHAPS IN THE BIG BEND REGION. NOGAPS AND NOGAPS INITIALIZED MODELS SUGGEST THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT CONSENSUS AND ENSEMBLES LEAN TOWARD THE PENINSULA. BASED ON WATER VAPOR...WHICH SHOWS THE END OF THE WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE REMNANT TROUGHING FROM FRANCES...AM AFRAID THE STORM WILL CIRCLE THE PERIPHERY AND LAND SOMEWHERE ON THE SUNCOAST BEFORE EDGING NNE.

FOR INTEREST...THIS HAS MANY EARMARKS OF CHARLEY (NOT GOOD) BUT IS LARGER AND MORE ORGANIZED...MEANING IT HAS POTENTIAL TO CREATE A WIDER WIND DAMAGE SWATH AS WELL AS HEAVIER RAINS (WORSE!). ONE POSSIBLE SAVING GRACE IS THAT THE SYSTEM MAY ENCOUNTER SOME SHEAR AS IT APPROACHES ON MONDAY...PERHAPS REDUCING THE CORE WINDS SOMEWHAT. BUT THAT WON'T STOP THE RAIN...WHICH WILL BE THE LONG TERM PROBLEM."

AgentB
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 10 2004 06:35 PM
Re: ERC

Quote:

I hate to bother you weather brains out there, but can someone tell me what an "SST" is? Thanks



Sea Surface Temperature.

LOL...looks like I was about 5 posts too late.

Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 10 2004 06:36 PM
Re: li phil

I agree the eye looks like it may go South of Jamaica.
this is a good thing for the Island.
Whats the problem?

rickonboat
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Sep 10 2004 06:37 PM
definitely on a more westerly track ya'll

Appreciate that map of Mobile, LI Phil...thanks..

Yeah, anyone who gets this hurricane..gets big problems....

will miss Jamaica, mon...and glad of that...

hey, maybe it will get into the gulf...stall...and die...

who knows...

MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 10 2004 06:38 PM
Re: ERC

sea surface temperature.

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 10 2004 06:39 PM
Re: li phil

If the definition of going south of the island means the center stays a few miles off shore, then yes, it may go south and miss the island. However, the eyewall appears almost certain to scrape the heck out of the south coast. In my book, since that is where the winds are, it is a hit.

tenavilla
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Sep 10 2004 06:41 PM
Re: li phil

The NHC has been saying that it would either hit the eastern edge, or run just barely south of Jamaica for awhile now. Actually, in some ways going just south seems to be worse, since that would make a huge storm surge problem for the whole island. Either way, from the latest Tampa NWS discussion, it would appear it doesn't matter since the ridge appears to have stopped moving west. That seems to be making a panhandle strike more unlikely.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 10 2004 06:41 PM
Re: Florida SLOSH Maps

Its almost Friday evening and about 72-96 hours away from landfall due to uncertaincy in where abouts in the the state of florida it will make landfall.
This what I came up with so far now on IVAN. First off I dont have a 3 day landfall yet cause I think its still just over 3 days out but Ill give ya a spot where abouts. Looking at all the data that I can recieve from model trends, physics of dynamic layers of the atmosphere up to 60 levels, weather balloon data over the region, buoy reports, recon data, and water vapor data trends I will try to make this forcast up to 3 days out. I find very interesting that this is going to be very simular to charley but bigger in size and though slower movement then him,,faster then Frances (but not by much). The expansion of the ridge off in the Bahamas has stoped. A trough coming off the Se U.S will help erode the western side of the ridge (though only some). In the first 60 hours expect a path over or very close to Jamaica to the Cayman Islands on Saturday evening then up NNW to N over Cuba on Sunday night. This is in agreement with the majority of the models but east of the Nogaps as it doesnt recoginize the end of the western expansion of the bahama ridge. By Monday morning I see Ivan as a Cat 3 just sw of Key west moving N. By later in the day a N to maybe just NNE path will ensue as he goes along the western side of the ridge to its east based on the data I have seen right now. I dont expect a big quicker turn like the Tropical suites say and what Charley did cause a stronger trough Charley had was digging already into the Panhandle and N Florida making a obvious turn to the NE. Bonnie was the best insight of what was going to happen when she went more ENE showing the trough had already hit the Panhandle by then. So after 72 hours? Well its still uncertain on where exactly it will make landfall, but I dont see this going past 85W, infact maybe not 84W. Somewhere around 25N and 83-84W by later Monday afternoon. Movement should begin the NNE direction during the afternoon or night time hours. So landfall in Tampa? Sarasota? Cedar Key and Big Bend? well sure but that is at least 84 hours away or more if farther up the coast. Models we all look at will change from run to run so we cant say we are going with a certain model, just that model run at that z time. The NHC has done well this year and so far with Ivan in the near terms. They will adjust postions with the data they recieve.
Anyways this should be a cat 3 when it makes landfall on the west coast of florida although a path closer to the big bend will be maybe down to a cat 2. There will be cooler waters from Frances up near Tampa north and shear once it enters the gulf. One thing for sure that we all do know is that this will cause alot more wind and rain then Charley did in a expanded area as this is alot bigger in size then Charley. Also to note Miami to the keys and Naples isnt out of the woods yet. I do expect hurricane force winds in the southern Keys even if it does move on a path along 83-84W. Also Panama City- the Big Bend isnt out of the question yet since that is still 4-5 days out, especially the Big Bend. Anyways I will post more later and try to pinpoint a area of landfall on Saturday. scottsvb

StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 10 2004 06:45 PM
Re: li phil

Quote:

I agree the eye looks like it may go South of Jamaica.
this is a good thing for the Island.



I think this is just a wobble west due to reformation of the eye. If it is going to pass south of the island at this point, it would have to really be moving west. That would change the track entirely.

rickonboat
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Sep 10 2004 06:49 PM
eye rebuild, or heading more west?....you decide

Yeah, it could be an eyewall rebuild. However, I see it as a wwnw heading for certain. I may be wrong..(probably)...but we will know in a few more frames..about two hours from now oughta tell us what is happening....

AgentB
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 10 2004 06:57 PM
Re: Florida SLOSH Maps

Scott, thanks for the forecast. Looking at the WV loops and the ridge/trough I can see where the NHC has gotten its current track. If you extend the ridge southward it would "end" around 83W, right about the line where the NHC has Ivan tracking north along. Also, remember when looking at WV loops, etc they aren't flat like tracking maps, instead they're more like a snapshot of the globe.

trinibaje
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 10 2004 07:01 PM
HELLO PEOPLE.. WAKE UP

Kingston in the South.... pass south... hit south..shirt south.... is very very very bad... so please don't make it seem that it will be good for the island.. as it stands right now... Jamaica is in very bad shape.

oh and btw.. the "mon" thing is getting to be annoying... (sorry i am from the caribbean and it just sounds hollywood fake)

MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 10 2004 07:05 PM
Re: HELLO PEOPLE.. WAKE UP

i agree.

Here is the extended forecast discussion link:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

jlauderdal
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Sep 10 2004 07:07 PM
Re: Florida SLOSH Maps

Quote:

Its almost Friday evening and about 72-96 hours away from landfall due to uncertaincy in where abouts in the the state of florida it will make landfall.
This what I came up with so far now on IVAN. First off I dont have a 3 day landfall yet cause I think its still just over 3 days out but Ill give ya a spot where abouts. Looking at all the data that I can recieve from model trends, physics of dynamic layers of the atmosphere up to 60 levels, weather balloon data over the region, buoy reports, recon data, and water vapor data trends I will try to make this forcast up to 3 days out. I find very interesting that this is going to be very simular to charley but bigger in size and though slower movement then him,,faster then Frances (but not by much). The expansion of the ridge off in the Bahamas has stoped. A trough coming off the Se U.S will help erode the western side of the ridge (though only some). In the first 60 hours expect a path over or very close to Jamaica to the Cayman Islands on Saturday evening then up NNW to N over Cuba on Sunday night. This is in agreement with the majority of the models but east of the Nogaps as it doesnt recoginize the end of the western expansion of the bahama ridge. By Monday morning I see Ivan as a Cat 3 just sw of Key west moving N. By later in the day a N to maybe just NNE path will ensue as he goes along the western side of the ridge to its east based on the data I have seen right now. I dont expect a big quicker turn like the Tropical suites say and what Charley did cause a stronger trough Charley had was digging already into the Panhandle and N Florida making a obvious turn to the NE. Bonnie was the best insight of what was going to happen when she went more ENE showing the trough had already hit the Panhandle by then. So after 72 hours? Well its still uncertain on where exactly it will make landfall, but I dont see this going past 85W, infact maybe not 84W. Somewhere around 25N and 83-84W by later Monday afternoon. Movement should begin the NNE direction during the afternoon or night time hours. So landfall in Tampa? Sarasota? Cedar Key and Big Bend? well sure but that is at least 84 hours away or more if farther up the coast. Models we all look at will change from run to run so we cant say we are going with a certain model, just that model run at that z time. The NHC has done well this year and so far with Ivan in the near terms. They will adjust postions with the data they recieve.
Anyways this should be a cat 3 when it makes landfall on the west coast of florida although a path closer to the big bend will be maybe down to a cat 2. There will be cooler waters from Frances up near Tampa north and shear once it enters the gulf. One thing for sure that we all do know is that this will cause alot more wind and rain then Charley did in a expanded area as this is alot bigger in size then Charley. Also to note Miami to the keys and Naples isnt out of the woods yet. I do expect hurricane force winds in the southern Keys even if it does move on a path along 83-84W. Also Panama City- the Big Bend isnt out of the question yet since that is still 4-5 days out, especially the Big Bend. Anyways I will post more later and try to pinpoint a area of landfall on Saturday. scottsvb



that sums it up very well and i am glad to see you are leaving options on the table and that is fair...this forecast is tricky and few miles and 1/2 degree of movement will make all the difference. i dont thinkw e will have a better idea until it gets up over cooba. nonetheless it will be a big rain event..this is a very different system than charley even though the track is similiar.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 10 2004 07:08 PM
Broward County

Sorry to jump in the middle of the discussion, but does anyone have any idea what the chances of a Miami-Dade/Broward hit is? I know it's taking a path towards the west coast, but are there any indications that it could hit further east? I'd really appreciate any response.

Thanks

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 10 2004 07:12 PM
miami

is a twelve on monday
15 total

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 10 2004 07:14 PM
Re: miami

Quote:

is a twelve on monday
15 total



Now would someone like to actually answer my question, please?

Bev
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 10 2004 07:14 PM
Re: Florida SLOSH Maps

Quote:

this forecast is tricky and few miles and 1/2 degree of movement will make all the difference. i dont thinkw e will have a better idea until it gets up over cooba. nonetheless it will be a big rain event..this is a very different system than charley even though the track is similiar.



I don't think we'll know landfall until it makes landfall. Charley sure didn't give up his secrets until the very last moment. No reason to think Ivan, coming in on a similar angle will do so. Everyone ought to stay prepared, I don't think we can pinpoint it within 100 miles either direction more than an hour before it lands. At which time it's too late to do anything but take cover.

-Bev

LI Phil
(User)
Fri Sep 10 2004 07:15 PM
Re: miami

that data comes from the strike probability table. Scroll down to Miami...for the %s

tenavilla
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Sep 10 2004 07:21 PM
Re: miami

I think she was referring to the strike probabilities put out by the NHC. 12% chance on the eye passing close by on Monday, 15% chance overall. They are giving the chances of the eye passing within so many miles (I think 75) during a particular time span.

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 10 2004 07:24 PM
Thomas says shifting east

Latest email:

Looking at the 1011 am EDT/1411 UTC visible satellite image from NRL Monterrey CAT 4 Ivan's eyewall has collapsed. He is currently experiencing a some unexpected (by me) WSW shearing and is also over a large patch of cooler ocean water. Of course this latest weakening development is a good development for Jamaica. He continues on an approximate WNW heading at 13 mph but I think we "may" see him begin to turn more NW and slow down within 12-18 hours.

This slowing of his forward speed will "possibly" allow Ivan to turn NW-N along 80-81 deg. west longitude instead of 82-83 deg. west longitude. So at this time I'm revising my landfall forecast, something I rarely do!!!

I place a CAT 4 hurricane strike at 50% along the southern coast of Florida between Fort Lauderdale and Naples.

I place a CAT 3-4 hurricane strike at 55% along the gulf coast of Florida between Naples and Tarpon Springs.

I place a CAT 3 hurricane strike at 45% along the gulf coast of Florida between Tarpon Springs and Cedar Key.

I place a CAT 2-3 hurricane strike at 40% in the big bend area between Cedar Key and Panacea.

Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 10 2004 07:25 PM
Re: miami

Does anybody have the link for entering your coordinates and you get the distance of where the eye will pass? We had it for Frances
Thanks

LI Phil
(User)
Fri Sep 10 2004 07:31 PM
How far is it?

This is from StormCarib, but I believe it will work for any location if you have your lat/lon coords...

http://stormcarib.com/distance.htm

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 10 2004 07:33 PM
Re: HELLO PEOPLE.. WAKE UP

Amen to that. I was in Kingston when the eye of Gilbert passed over, almost 16 years ago to the day. I do not wish for the destruction I saw that day to happen again.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 10 2004 07:34 PM
Re: How far is it?

Nasty rumor here in Tally is that Jeb is about to announce a gas ration.

Kruz
(Verified CFHC User)
Fri Sep 10 2004 07:36 PM
Re: How far is it?

Here in Marion County alot of stations stopped selling gas at noon so there will be enough for emergency vehicles....

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 10 2004 07:36 PM
Gas ration

It is a rumor. That is all. It has been spreading on the internet and is false.

trinibaje
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 10 2004 07:37 PM
Re: Thomas says shifting east

This guy was right on with Frances! if i recall

wxman007
(Meteorologist)
Fri Sep 10 2004 07:38 PM
Gas Rationing...FALSE.

We here at the station have been working that story all day, and it is FALSE....that is not being considered by Gov. Bush.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 10 2004 07:39 PM
Thanks, Scott!

Scott, maybe it's deja vu, but I could SWEAR that I've read that very same forecast somewhere on the web. Maybe it was the NHC, or Melbourne NWS or Tampa Bay NWS.

Maybe it's just me, though.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 10 2004 07:39 PM
Re: Thomas says shifting east

recon pressure down 3 mb to 937, might keep cat 4 strength at 5pm.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 10 2004 07:40 PM
GAS RESTRICTION

JEB TO ISSUE EMERGENCY EXECUTIVE ORDER TO STOP THE SALE OF GAS OR CURTAIL THE SALE IN CERTAIN CITIES BEGINNING AT 8:00 P.M. -- FILL UP NOW, YOU MAY NOT BE ABLE TO AFTER THAT!!!

This is more than likely an untrue rumor..unless you have valid proof, please do not post statements like this!

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 10 2004 07:41 PM
Re: Thomas says shifting east

I got a transcript from the NWS out of Ruskin on them thinking about the ridging around 130pm. Its been out now for about 1 hour on the Flhurricane tampabay ruskin nws now so you can see some too.

RedingtonBeachGuy
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 10 2004 07:41 PM
Re: Thomas says shifting east

That's not good.. Thomas was dead on last 'cain so tell him thank you for his observations. I live in Tampa Bay area and a cat3 blow would devestate our area.

His observations are a bit murky this time.. 55% here, 50% there - I liked the 'Miami-Ft Meyers or Ft. Lauderdale to Sarasota' type of projecting he did last time. Can he narrow down his thoughts a bit more?

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 10 2004 07:44 PM
Re: GAS RESTRICTION

PLease stop spreading false rumors

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 10 2004 07:44 PM
Re: Gas Rationing...FALSE.

X lurker here but I had to reply.. Citrus County sheriffs dept is only allowing ten gallon purchases in Citrus County. BTW great site with good bulk info.

S. Stewart

trinibaje
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 10 2004 07:47 PM
Re: GAS RESTRICTION

AT THIS POINT IT DOESN'T REALLY MATTER... CAUSE MOST OF THE GAS STATIONS OUT OF GAS ANYWAY! at least here in Miami... i tried three stations this morning and there was ZERO gas

Kruz
(Verified CFHC User)
Fri Sep 10 2004 07:48 PM
Re: Gas Rationing...FALSE.

S. Stewart...just curious...are you staying for Ivan or fleeing?

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 10 2004 07:49 PM
Re: Gas Rationing...FALSE.

Quote:

We here at the station have been working that story all day, and it is FALSE....that is not being considered by Gov. Bush.



Thnx for the reply. You may be right but why would the Governor notify the news ahead of a ration? Would that not cause the very panic buying/hording of gas that a ration is intended to prevent?

StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 10 2004 07:50 PM
Re: GAS RESTRICTION

Quote:

PLease stop spreading false rumors



I believe people were passing on information they felt was accurate. I don't think there is any reason to get upset at individuals for attempting to inform us. Half of what gets posted on here is speculation anyway. I believe that individual stations in Polk county have decided to ration on their own, which is the likely source of the rumor. According to the state, stations have the leeway to ration if they feel they need to.

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 10 2004 07:51 PM
Rumors and the danger

I would like to remind folks that one of the most dangerous things is to spread rumors in a time of crisis. This is the time when ANYTHING posted by a non-official source or not relayed via credible news sources should not be considered reliable and should not be spread until it has been confirmed by an official source.

The danger of a gas ration rumor will cuase the equivilent of a run on the bank. If everyone runs out now and tries to get gas, they it may become a self fulfiling rumor becuase restrictions will have to be put in place to prevent stupidity from depeleting the gas supply.

Do not spread unsubstantiated rumors. If you have information, include an official source or link as backup.

trinibaje
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 10 2004 07:54 PM
Re: Rumors and the danger

wait a second... don't all of you speculate on here? come on give the guy a break

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 10 2004 07:55 PM
Re: Gas Rationing...FALSE.

I haven't decided to flee yet although I have made reservations in Georgia. I am on the site trying to make my decision.

ThirdRay
(Registered User)
Fri Sep 10 2004 07:57 PM
Re: Rumors and the danger

Yes rumors are very dangerous....Having said that I LOVE this site. Thanks everyone. I just got at of a manager meeting in my office complex in Tampa (I live in Lakeland) and we were told that a gas ration IS going to be started this eve. I do not know that validity of this, but I know it is being BELIEVED witch can be just as though it is FACT. People need to remain calm.... After 2 already I am surprised by the panic I seam to see with Ivan. I wonder why? I too feel like this one is to be feared......

rule
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 10 2004 07:57 PM
Re: Thomas says shifting east

Awww shoot. Eye coming back online.

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/AOI/AOI1_wv_loop.html

LI Phil
(User)
Fri Sep 10 2004 07:57 PM
Re: Rumors and the danger

There is a difference between speculating where a hurricane might or might not end up versus spreading a potentially false rumor...which could have far reaching effects on the populace as a whole...see Rasvar's above comments which are excellent.

All that is being asked is if one has "information" of this nature that a credible source be cited. Thanks.

Kruz
(Verified CFHC User)
Fri Sep 10 2004 07:58 PM
Re: Gas Rationing...FALSE.

I , too am trying to decide. I really didn't care for Frances and this guy will be worse..way worse.

c ray
(Registered User)
Fri Sep 10 2004 07:59 PM
Re: Rumors and the danger

wftv.com (ABC affiliate in Orlando) posted an AP article about some guy who is trying to do a Dyna Gel drop on Ivan.

lilyv
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 10 2004 07:59 PM
Re: Gas Rationing...FALSE.

http://www.myflorida.com/
Lots of hurricane related information here, and and not a word about rationing. They also post the daily emergency response briefings here.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:00 PM
Re: Gas Rationing

I DID NOT POST INFORMATION THAT WAS UNTRUE OR UNVERIFIED, THIS INFORMATION THAT I POSTED EARLIER CAME FROM THE CHIEF JUSTICE MIAMI-DADE COUNTY -- I TRUST HE WOULD BE A RELIABLE SOURCE, I HOPE TO ASSIT THOSE THAT MAY NEED FUEL, AND PROVIDE OTHER WEBSITE USERS A JUMPSTART OVER THE PUBLIC AT LARGE. I UNDERSTAND THE FEAR OF PANIC, BUT WE MUST FACE THE TRUTH HEAD ON

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:00 PM
Re: Rumors and the danger

There is a major difference between speculating on where a hurricane is going and saying:

"The storm is heading to Tampa!!!! Get out now!!!!"


That is what these rumors are the equivilent of. Everyone knows that what ever we say here is not offical and all official words on evacuations and such should supercede anything that is stated here. If they don't, they they need to learn that.

andy1tom
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:01 PM
Re: Rumors and the danger

one of the things you are suppose to do is fill-up. but think about it if everyone fills up demand is more than supply. and demand = price. thats why "crooks" are able to price gouge. gas, roofs, its all the same. i think the other 2 have everyone gun shy and people are doing things well in advance which is good. nobody will fuss at the nhc if they miss the track and it goes somewhere else this time. also i still don't see the northern turn yet.

LI Phil
(User)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:02 PM
c-ray is RIGHT

I thought for sure c-ray was having a go, but sure enough, here's the story.

Ivan is truly making everyone nuts.

Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:03 PM
Overall Water Vapor

I am trying to understand the possible steering of the ridge in the Atlantic. Looking at the western Atlantic WV loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html

it seems to my untrained eye, that as it pushes in, it will discourage the northern turn of Ivan. If I look at the GOM loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

it seems as the western ridge is larger and more powerful.

But, the northwest Atlantic loop is the easiest to visualize (since it shows both high pressure systems), but still isn't great as Ivan isnt showing up yet:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html

What I see every time I look at these is the two ridges converging and narrowing the trough. But, it looks like the trough is being pushed more from the Atlantic ridge than it is being affected by the western ridge (watch the southern tip of Florida as the loop progresses). Am I seeing things, or doesn't it look like the trough will be further west than expected?

Kal
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:04 PM
Re: Gas Rationing...FALSE.

Jason - Thanks for clarifying that the gas rumor is false. And now that you've checked in, what are your thoughts on Ivan's track today? Yesterday you expressed some growing concerns about your neck of the woods. Are you breathing even just a little easier seeing today's forecast models?

Jamiewx
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:06 PM
Rumor?

The closest thing i can find on rationing is found here http://www.sptimes.com/2004/09/06/State/Gov_Bush_takes_step_t.shtml

But it doesn't really apply because it says state does not plan to do that.

wxman007
(Meteorologist)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:06 PM
Re: Gas Rationing

I understand, but please hear me on this one. I was in the conference call directly, and I heard Gov Bush, with MY ears, say that gasoline rationing was not going to b enacted today, nor is it planned for the future. If he DOES implement it, then it is political suicide to directly lie to a media outlet.

lilyv
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:07 PM
Re: Rumors and the danger

About price gouging-States take this seriously. Florida currently has this#:
Attorney General's Price Gouging Hotline: (1-800-646-0444)
Folks that have been through a hurricane don't deserve to be cheated out of their money.

trinibaje
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:07 PM
I just think

before you accusing someone of intentionally spreading false rumors..ask them where they got the info from .... jeeze....

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:08 PM
Let's Put The Gas Rationing Rumor to Bed & Other Info

1) The gas-rationing is only a rumor. BayNews9 is scrolling on the bottom of their screen that THERE IS NO GAS RATIONING. I heard Jeb Bush say it himself on the radio an hour ago.

2) School closings in the Tampa Bay Area on Monday include the following counties: Hernando, Polk and Hillsborough.

3) If you live in Florida and have relatives who are watching MSNBC, you might be getting some calls. Why? Because the last time they talked about Ivan, they put on the screen the following message:

"TROPICAL STORM WINDS UP TO 275MPH"

I triple checked that before I called them to tell them that they were more than likely scaring the unnecesary C**P out of people.

And they want us to believe that they "report" the news with the facts??? ROFLMAO.........

MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:08 PM
Re: Rumors and the danger

Jeb is on tv saying it is not true.

ShaggyDude
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:08 PM
Re: Gas Rationing

The governor is on a live conference right now on national T.V. and is putting down the gas rumor.

wxman007
(Meteorologist)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:09 PM
Ivan thoughts....

Still gathering my thoughts at this point and working on my forecast..more later when I get a little more time....

To answer your question briefly, I am only marginally less concerned about a Panhandle strike.

trinibaje
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:10 PM
there will be no need to ration

if there is none to ration....

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:11 PM
FALSE

LOOKS LIKE EVEN THOSE WITHIN THE GOVERNMENT WERE DUPED -- BUT BETTER SAFE THAN SORRY?

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:11 PM
Re: Gas Rationing

Jeb said the rumor started in the Tampa area earlier today.

GaryC
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:11 PM
Re: Rumor?

This is my .02 if you have facts about something serious like a gas ration then post them, this is a hurricane site not a rumor mill and the only thing this could have done was cause potential panic in a state of scared people. Did anyone really think the Gov would have this leaked out before it was inacted?

ShaggyDude
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:12 PM
Re: Let's Put The Gas Rationing Rumor to Bed & Other Info

I agree, the gas talk is over. It's not true and shouldn't even be discussed anymore on this board anyway.

Back to the hurricane, many models still take Ivan into the peninsula while the NHC is sticking with the FSU Superensemble and GDFL. Does anybody think that the hurricane center will shift left at five?

And has anybody been able to research the last time three hurricanes made landfall in one season or on a monthly time frame?

ThirdRay
(Registered User)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:15 PM
Re: FALSE

Honestly the damage is done.... The run on gas now from the reports (true or false) is only adding to the hysteria that the area has falling into in reguards to Ivan. Seams very strange the after 2 storms that people are over reacting to every little thing... There is NO GAS, NO WOOD, No GENERATORS, Water is running out FAST....

(Off topic post removed by Moderator)

GO LIGHTNING !!!!!!!!!!

trinibaje
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:15 PM
Re: Let's Put The Gas Rationing Rumor to Bed & Other Info

Quote:

I agree, the gas talk is over. It's not true and shouldn't even be discussed anymore on this board anyway.

Back to the hurricane, many models still take Ivan into the peninsula while the NHC is sticking with the FSU Superensemble and GDFL. Does anybody think that the hurricane center will shift left at five?

And has anybody been able to research the last time three hurricanes made landfall in one season or on a monthly time frame?



I heard on the news Channel 7 in Miami WSVN... last time was in 1960s. but then again that is channel 7 ..

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:15 PM
Multiple landfalls

I saw a graphic from Accuweather earlier today. Florida had three land falling hurricanes in 1964. Not sure of the timing though.

rule
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:16 PM
Re: Overall Water Vapor

Based on those links, I would say Ivan would go right into Tampa - Big Bend area. However, they are not going to remain in that state, and there lies the rub. Personally, I'm hoping for a Charley track out of Ivan, but the Eastern trough is going to have to recede.

I pretend I get a lot of information from water vapor loops, but I'm really at a loss this far out as far as making a Florida landfall. I'm going to have to wait for it to cross Cuba before I feel like I can make a guess.

ShaggyDude
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:16 PM
Re: Let's Put The Gas Rationing Rumor to Bed & Other Info

--- in florida, that is. Also, it looks to me like Ivan's slowing down. Is that evident to anybody else?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:17 PM
Re: Let's Put The Gas Rationing Rumor to Bed & Other Info

A model update:

http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

Looks like most are converging on a more easterly track except for GFDL. Will the 5:00 update move to the right?

alley
(Registered User)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:18 PM
Re: GAS RESTRICTION

Total BS. Jeb is on right now and has denied the rumor......absolutely no gas rationing.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:18 PM
Re: FALSE

(Off topic material removed by moderator)

This is indeed a strange season. I can't recall ever seeing 3 storms nail a state so close together.

MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:20 PM
Re: FALSE

let's keep this site to hurricanes and not politics

GaryC
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:20 PM
Re: Multiple landfalls

1964 two hit South FL and one, dora hit Jax

Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:21 PM
Re: Rumors and the danger

Dynagel again ? LOL.. Yeah just what we need something else to mess up the environment..

Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:22 PM
Re: Overall Water Vapor

Maybe because the Atlantic ridge appears to be weakening? Nothing like trying to answer your own questions, right?

rule
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:24 PM
Re: Let's Put The Gas Rationing Rumor to Bed & Other Info

I've expected a 5:00 move to the right since 11:00am. Personally, I'm hoping for one. However, I need to see the same trend at 11:00pm and 5:00am to feel any better!

Re: the gas rationing.
I heard this RUMOR at 11:00am here in Ocala at the barber shop. I knew it was a RUMOR the moment I heard it, but it has grown with the telling.

It just goes to show you how frazzled Floridians are right now. Hang in there, people.

trinibaje
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:26 PM
Re: Let's Put The Gas Rationing Rumor to Bed & Other Info

here is the dynagel report... not a rumor

http://www.nbc6.net/weather/3721722/detail.html

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:26 PM
Re: Rumors and the danger

I honestly think the world is going nuts. This guy might TRY to rent a tanker, but first he's going to have to get the "thousands of pounds" from wherever he's keeping it, bring it to an airport and file a flight plan. I highly doubt that the FAA is going to let someone put thousands of stuff on a tanker plane when they don't know what EXACTLY that stuff is. Ain't gonna happen.
Nice effort on his part, though.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:26 PM
IVAN...nothing else!

Is it me or does it look like Ivan is getting sheared right now. Looks like he almost wants to split apart.

ShawnS

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:27 PM
Re: Multiple landfalls

Yes, 1964 was the last time.
Cleo tracked up I-95 as a cat 2 from Miami to Jacksonville. Dora tracked across I-10 as a cat 2 from Jacksonville to Tallahassee. Isbell Tracked as a cat 3 from Naples to WPB. Yes, there were 3 storms in a season, but not in a months time.

tenavilla
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:27 PM
Re: Gas Rationing

It did start in the Tampa area today. My husband called earlier and told me that the talk radio news said they were going to start rationing at 5:00 pm today. Needless to say, when I went out to the bank, the gas stations were jam packed with lines all the way up the road in some instances.

LI Phil
(User)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:29 PM
Re: IVAN...nothing else!

Agreed. Ivan is the story. It does like like he's encountering some northerly shear, but he has regained a robust eye...

wv loop

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:30 PM
Re: IVAN...nothing else!

I don't think it is shear as much as Ivan appears to be having some interaction with the land mass. Getting close to the island and there are some frictional issues with some mountains. Not as bad as what Dominica would do, though.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:31 PM
Re: Rumors and the danger

Quote:

I honestly think the world is going nuts. This guy might TRY to rent a tanker, but first he's going to have to get the "thousands of pounds" from wherever he's keeping it, bring it to an airport and file a flight plan. I highly doubt that the FAA is going to let someone put thousands of stuff on a tanker plane when they don't know what EXACTLY that stuff is. Ain't gonna happen.
Nice effort on his part, though.



True story.

The folks at Dynomat were (by proxy) clients of mine once upon a time when I ran a design studio. They were working with a company that had B-57 Canberras that were loaded with some of the stuff and then dropped onto storms.

I'm sure they have material data safety sheets for the stuff or else nobody would be able to work around it. Consequently, they would be able to tell folks exactly what was in the stuff.

The company that owned the Canberras have since *snicker* evaporated from this town (I hear that they are being sought for defrauding their investors). I'm sure that's the only reason they haven't dumped anything on a storm this season and why they're trying to find a tanker to rent now.

/true story.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:33 PM
Re: Hurricane Ivan Paths

I'll bet this one will veer off the W Coast and move north past the Tampa Bay area. Steering currents will cue it up.

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:35 PM
Re: IVAN...nothing else!

In the last 25 posts or so, I hear about shearing, more easterly tracks, and slowing down. This is all what Thomas' email said in my post about one hour plus ago. He may be right on the money again.

Mozart
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:36 PM
Re: IVAN...nothing else!

The way he's elongating, it appears to my untrained eye like he's ready to make a turn, but it's way to early for that. However, can someone explain to me exactly what feature is preventing that? Isn't there a ridge in the GOM that would encourage a turn now?

Still learning...

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:38 PM
5:00 PM discussion

I really don't understand the logic in this. I'm guessing it is more political then scientific reason for not moving the track.

From the 5:00PM discussion:
"However...models are becoming in better
agreement on a track across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Although
the official forecast could have been shifted a little westward due
to the new guidance...it is not prudent to make a change at this
time. The official forecast is now basically to the right of the
guidance envelope...and keeps the hurricane on a northward track
very close to the Florida West Coast."

ShaggyDude
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:38 PM
Re: Hurricane Ivan Paths

By the way it's slowing down, though, i'm not as sure on it's track anymore. I agree that the eye is much more distinct than earlier today and Jahmaica is in for a rough ride. I wonder how a slowdown would affect a timetable and forecast track for Ivan? I've also seen how less symetrical Ivan has turned and on the WV, it looks to be due, in part, to outside atmospheric influences rather than island interaction.

LI Phil
(User)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:40 PM
Re: 5:00 PM discussion

Hmmm. Based upon the new update, the NHC is making this a panhandle/big bend hit.

wunderground 5 day

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:42 PM
Shear

I thought it looked like he was getting sheared by the upper low to the ne of him.

ShawnS

rule
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:42 PM
Re: Overall Water Vapor

I expect I'm interpeting this incorrectly, but based on this:

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNatio...mp;prodnav=none

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNatio...mp;prodnav=none

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNatio...mp;prodnav=none

It looks like the Atlantic Ridge weakens to me. (as of now)

I can't help but have some healthy NIMBY wishcasting in that as well, so your mileage may vary.

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:46 PM
Re: Shear

It could be shear. It just looks like some of the disruption pattern correlates with the topography if I remember the topography correctly. Not all that certain, though.

ShaggyDude
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:47 PM
Re: Shear

New Topic Up

Cane Watcher
(Verified CFHC User)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:47 PM
Re: 5:00 PM discussion

Stupid question, how do you get the discussions, maps, etc... a half hour before its on the website? I see the weatherunderground stuff, but I don't like there maps..
Thanks,

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:48 PM
Re: 5:00 PM discussion

I got it from weatherundergournd.com. They always seem to have it posted before other sites.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:50 PM
WV Loops

Again, I'm not that good at looking at the wv and telling what will effect these storms so bear with me but it looks like to me that Ivan may want to go on a more northerly track much sooner than expected and miss Florida altogether. Please correct me if I'm way off here, but please be nice...LOL!

ShawnS

rule
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 10 2004 08:51 PM
Re: Shear

Dangit. So much for my Easterly turn. (flogs self with wet hurricane tracking chart)

The Big Bend track makes me SO nervous. I *might* stay if that's the case, but if it pulls a Charley to the right I'm going to get flattened.

It's just too far out yet to tell. (sigh)

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 10 2004 09:01 PM
Re: 5:00 PM discussion

Ok, I'm stumped on this one. The models & the discussions we have seen and read would have you think that they would have shifted it to the right. But..
in the discussion they say it wouldn't have been "prudent" to move it more west, and it's to the right of the guidance envelope."
The only thing I can say is that they know something we don't. Like what the FSU ensemble is telling them.

I'm gonna watch Steve Jerve at 5 to see what he thinks. Interesting.

Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 10 2004 09:07 PM
Re: 5:00 PM discussion

yeah well it beats the flip flopping.. I think they would rather not move the track as it could deter people from preparing, people who could be possibly be effected by Ivan 36-48 hours before the panhandle could. Guess they do not want another Charley situation..

Sadie
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 10 2004 09:33 PM
Re: Overall Water Vapor

Quote:

Personally, I'm hoping for a Charley track out of Ivan........



I considered letting that pass, but note my location. Let's think about what we post! Geez.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Sep 11 2004 04:28 PM
Re: Florida SLOSH Maps

Quote:

Its almost Friday evening and about 72-96 hours away from landfall due to uncertaincy in where abouts in the the state of florida it will make landfall.
This what I came up with so far now on IVAN. First off I dont have a 3 day landfall yet cause I think its still just over 3 days out but Ill give ya a spot where abouts. Looking at all the data that I can recieve from model trends, physics of dynamic layers of the atmosphere up to 60 levels, weather balloon data over the region, buoy reports, recon data, and water vapor data trends I will try to make this forcast up to 3 days out. I find very interesting that this is going to be very simular to charley but bigger in size and though slower movement then him,,faster then Frances (but not by much). The expansion of the ridge off in the Bahamas has stoped. A trough coming off the Se U.S will help erode the western side of the ridge (though only some). In the first 60 hours expect a path over or very close to Jamaica to the Cayman Islands on Saturday evening then up NNW to N over Cuba on Sunday night. This is in agreement with the majority of the models but east of the Nogaps as it doesnt recoginize the end of the western expansion of the bahama ridge. By Monday morning I see Ivan as a Cat 3 just sw of Key west moving N. By later in the day a N to maybe just NNE path will ensue as he goes along the western side of the ridge to its east based on the data I have seen right now. I dont expect a big quicker turn like the Tropical suites say and what Charley did cause a stronger trough Charley had was digging already into the Panhandle and N Florida making a obvious turn to the NE. Bonnie was the best insight of what was going to happen when she went more ENE showing the trough had already hit the Panhandle by then. So after 72 hours? Well its still uncertain on where exactly it will make landfall, but I dont see this going past 85W, infact maybe not 84W. Somewhere around 25N and 83-84W by later Monday afternoon. Movement should begin the NNE direction during the afternoon or night time hours. So landfall in Tampa? Sarasota? Cedar Key and Big Bend? well sure but that is at least 84 hours away or more if farther up the coast. Models we all look at will change from run to run so we cant say we are going with a certain model, just that model run at that z time. The NHC has done well this year and so far with Ivan in the near terms. They will adjust postions with the data they recieve.
Anyways this should be a cat 3 when it makes landfall on the west coast of florida although a path closer to the big bend will be maybe down to a cat 2. There will be cooler waters from Frances up near Tampa north and shear once it enters the gulf. One thing for sure that we all do know is that this will cause alot more wind and rain then Charley did in a expanded area as this is alot bigger in size then Charley. Also to note Miami to the keys and Naples isnt out of the woods yet. I do expect hurricane force winds in the southern Keys even if it does move on a path along 83-84W. Also Panama City- the Big Bend isnt out of the question yet since that is still 4-5 days out, especially the Big Bend. Anyways I will post more later and try to pinpoint a area of landfall on Saturday. scottsvb

cc


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