MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:01 AM |
Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman
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Hurricane Ivan remains a strong Category 5 hurricane, actually the 6th strongest ever seen in the Atlantic, with a pressure at 910mb. And it still has potential to strengthen even more. The strongest recorded was Hurricane Gilbert in 1988, with a pressure of 888 mb.
The future track continues to slide west, the Panhandle being the highest probabiility. But I've noticed that the models have still been too far right ever since Ivan was a depression. This trend has been interesting. Note, that a US landfall would't be until tuesday or wednesday night and the track could still change.
Until Ivan starts making a definitive move, the confidence in any of this is low. Hurricane Mitch is a good example of why.
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Event RelatedLinks
Stormcarib Reports from the Cayman Islands
Cuban Radar Images
Stormcarib personal reports from Jamaica
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
Weather Underground Model Plots for Ivan
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image
Animated Color Ivan Satellite (With NHC Track Overlay)
(Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
Key West (Florida Keys)Long Range Radar Loop
General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps
Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovirr
Other Recon Info
Disaster Relief Information
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
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LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:09 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman
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The NHC and models do not do well in the gulf. They never have.. Hurricanes seem to misbehave once they enter the gulf. I am not saying that the storm will misbehave, but I caution anyone to not take this track literally.. Take your precautions, but watch this storm carefully. We are still 4-5 days out from a landfall (maybe soon depending upon how well Ivan behaves)... The hurricane is about to enter the playground.
| DroopGB31 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:14 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman
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Well Im surely getting nervous up here in the Western Panhandle. Me and the family are probably going to start getting prepared tomorrow buying some essential things like water, food, batteries etc. Still have 3 bags of ice left over from last week as we prepared just in case Frances came to visit. Tomorrow should be intresting. By the way, Clark, JK what are ya'll thinking right now? Love your posts.
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:16 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman
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what are your thoughts on ivans landfall? do you truly think we might be out of the woods? Im just south of tampa, kinda in your neck of the woods.
| kelcot |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:17 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman
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With the path projected above, it seems like Ivan won't have much land to cross over when it hits Cuba, therefore, isn't it possible for him to not weaken too much as the eye passes land?
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:24 AM |
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Whew...
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Current track makes me happy. (sorry) This is 24 hours of forecasting AWAY from me, so I'm starting to believe it.
I see Ivan finally "wobbling" off of West at the moment. Anyone have a current strength?
| DroopGB31 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:25 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman
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Kelcot, Ivan shouldnt weaken to much crossing Western Cuba but once he gets in the Gulf shear is forecasted to hopefully weaken Ivan a bit, also the TCHP isnt as high except in a area south of Mobile. So to answer your question, conditions wont be perfect like they are now to sustain a Cat5 in the gulf but maybe a strong 3. just my opinion and things could change so just watch it carefully.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:25 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman
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Mike, gotta be on the ball for all the new forums: here's a repost from the last one:
Tick...tick...tick...getting close to 9/12
Never thought I'd say this, but I tend to agree with y'all that the 5 day has been a good experiment gone awry...too much uncertainty and not enough ...what...confidence? It's hard enough to do 72 hours, but 120 is really pushing it. I vote with the board on this one...scrap it. Or don't include it in the cone, because that cone is like 750 miles wide...
Anyone else with me?
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:27 AM |
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Excellent post .. very honest well written words
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To Mike or whichever brother or moderator started this thread. Best words I've seen written anywhere. Almost didn't check in tonight because as far as I'm concerned until Ivan starts to move... and all the official tracks deal with his extremely slow movement which is just barely occaisionally north of due west..everything is all speculation.
Good quote.."Until Ivan starts making a definitive move, the confidence in any of this is low. Hurricane Mitch is a good example of why."
Very good, well written, well said.. congratulations.
Bobbi
| tenavilla |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:28 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman
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Posted in the last thread, reposting here:
I have a computer program that I use for tracking. I just pulled up my extended forecast from the 5pm discussion yesterday. The forecast just over 30 hrs ago was for the eye to pass just west of Montego Bay, right over Cayman Brac (the island to the far right) and just east of Havana. They had the US landfall just a little to the east of where they have it now. As far as timing, it was supposed to be over Cayman Brac right now. Obviously, none of that has come to pass
Just goes to show how inaccurate hurricane forecasts can be.
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:28 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman
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I think the 5 day is just bad. It's a nice idea, but we're just not able to forecast such a complex event yet.
Go back to the 3 day. It will cause less trauma.
| kelcot |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:29 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman
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I understand that it is extreamly difficult to maintain a storm of that intensity..........however......
1. Ivan is like no other storm I've seen in my 25 years of life, everytime I think "O.k., this is it, he's going to loose some of his power", but he gets stronger.
2. The GOM waters are almost like bath water now.
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:29 AM |
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Hitting West Cuba.... or not....
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I'm not liking this one bit.... Looking at the IR. if it continues on its present course, it misses Cuba.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
If if misses Cuba (unless it continues west, my wishcast, actually), it's way too west into the GOM. This is in line with the trough in the GOM moving slight westerly. I am beginning to really worry about New Orleans and the subdeltas....
Where's the AgI (an alternative to the always mentioned) when you need it????
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:31 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman
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I have to agree with scrapping the 5-day and just sticking to their knitting and do a 3-day. I have to agree with Phil and they should re-name the 5 day cone the "Cone of Crapola" because that's where it usually ends up more wiggles and waggles than Sergio Garcia.....
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:32 AM |
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Re: Hitting West Cuba.... or not....
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repost:
Quote:
But...I just realized that the eye still has not made it north of Jamaica. It's obviously well to the west, but not north.
The last couple of NHC forecast did not call for it to be north of the northern edge of Jamaica until sometime after 2:00-3:00am EDT. 18.7N 80.5N was the 2:00am forecast from 5:00 PM. I think it will be just a tad off at 18.6N 80.6W around 2:00am.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:32 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman
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Before Ivan enters the Gulf. Take a tracking map, of the GOM region, and throw a dart at it. You've got a 50/50 shot at getting it right.
| Lisa NC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:32 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman
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I was just watching the 6 hr Sat loops, and Ivan's over all size has decreased. Is this a sign of maybe more strengthing? I would think the small he becomes at his current 165 mph would only increase his wind speeds. Is there a something I'm missing?
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:33 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman
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I think the studies show that the 5 day forecasts are now as accurate as the 3 day forecasts used to be, that's why they now include them. Storms like this will always present a problem, but I don't think their previous 5 days' were that bad. It is just something we have to get used to. In fact, Isabel was nailed I believe. So for now, I'll be the dissenting voice. Of course, if it were up to me, I'd ask for a 10 day forecast.....
| tenavilla |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:34 AM |
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Re: Hitting West Cuba.... or not....
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I just looked at my "historical" files of the track. I use a computer program and keep the forecasted tracks to compare them to what actually happens. Even on 24 hr forecasts they have been way off with this one. See my earlier post in this thread regarding yesterdays 5pm
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:36 AM |
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Re: Hitting West Cuba.... or not....
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Wellll... I've been saying it's going West all night, but I see a wobble to the WNW already. Probably going to scrape Grand Cayman and smack Cuba as scheduled.
My head hurts.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:36 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman
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>>> So for now, I'll be the dissenting voice. Of course, if it were up to me, I'd ask for a 10 day forecast.....
On Vulcan, the closest planet to the sun, there will be 500 MPH Hypercanes and then some drizzle. 10 days out
| sullynole |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:36 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman
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it is well known that the 5 day usually isn't that great, but I believe it was requested of the NHC. while everyone here seems to be down on the 5 day forecast, on systems not so large as we have seen lately and not as unusual (we are breaking records with this one), the 5 day forecasts are often pretty good. they are very helpful for those like myself because it is helpful to see what the NHC is thinking. Everyone just needs to remember they are just what they say... experimental. They are really not to be used as official tracks just yet and (just as the models) should not be shown to the general public by the media.
I'm not sure if the media does this because I usually don't watch much of the tracking by the news, etc.
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:38 AM |
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Re: Hitting West Cuba.... or not....
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Quote:
Wellll... I've been saying it's going West all night, but I see a wobble to the WNW already. Probably going to scrape Grand Cayman and smack Cuba as scheduled.
My head hurts.
Only one point so far..... maybe more? Hopefully?
| DroopGB31 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:39 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman
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I agree Phil. I never really liked it because of the reason you mentioned. Theres just way to much uncertainty past 72 hours as we have seen all year. As soon as we think we have a landfall area set in stone the models shift and everything else shifts and its a nerve wracking mess. Not to mention everyone follows the little line in the center of the cone and say "oh, were not under the line, we dont need to worry". Perfect example being Charley.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:39 AM |
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Re: Hitting West Cuba.... or not....
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I keep hearing the forecast official and not so official excluding the Peninsula of Florida in its track. I have seen too many hurricanes pass through the Yucatan passage and end up near or in Florida. It is really too early to say where the cane will go after getting into the gulf. This is really frightening as people are beginning to go numb here in Florida.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:40 AM |
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Re: Hitting West Cuba.... or not....
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I'll agree on the turn. Last few shots (pics) look like he's going north up the 80.0 longitude line. Recentering Grand Cayman?
The overall size, ahead of the storm appears to be smaller than earlier, too.
That will throw the models another curve ball!
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:40 AM |
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Re: Hitting West Cuba.... or not....
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Yeah, they have been off. They were also way off on the six hour positions. The 5:00PM six hour posit for 2:00am looks to be the first one that is reasonably close in sometime. Have to hit the 6 hour first a few times before I start trusting the 12. However, I think now that it is away from Jamicia, it will behave until it gets close to Cuba. I think the near term is pretty straightforward. The stronger the system gets, the more it will drift more to west of forecast. I feel a cat 5 always has a natural pull west. But I still think if the last two six hour posit forecast can verify pretty close, Ivan does not miss Cuba.
| kelcot |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:42 AM |
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Re: Hitting West Cuba.... or not....
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numb, maybe.....staying prepaired, yes.
My husband just returned from Orlando, Vero, Melbourne Lowes. He took pictures of the stores there (not damage from the storm) The shelves were almost completely empty when they walked in. There's also a picture he took of the parking lot with all the cars lined up to get more wood.
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:43 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman
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Smaller usually equals faster. Ivan goes for it. Better in the wide open ocean than near land. Unless poor Caymans enter into it.
Currently I could see the Eyewall rubbing Grand Cayman. In other words, effectly erasing it.
Damn... Hope all can seek shelter...
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:44 AM |
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Re: Hitting West Cuba.... or not....
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I have to switch to another sat pic site, as mine is now shifting camera angle, so the storm is harder to track. I would like to see that though.
| FlaRebel |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:44 AM |
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HEY JASON!!!!!!!!!!
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So how is Tallahassee looking bud? I'm thinking of hitting the road after work on Monday. Any advice is appreciated.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:45 AM |
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Re: Hitting West Cuba.... or not....
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>>>The stronger the system gets, the more it will drift more to west of forecast. I feel a cat 5 always has a natural pull west
Not arguing or trying to bust chops, but what makes you say this? Just a hunch (which is fine) or is there some evidence that CAT V's trend west?
Again, a valid question...could have major implications down the road...thanks.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:46 AM |
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WOBBLE!
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It will turn out to be just a wobble. It has been doing this all day. Many of you have even talked about the stairstepping it has been doing. In the next few frames I bet you anything it evens out back to a mainly west motion, again.
ShawnS
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:48 AM |
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Re: Recon
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Recon is about 671 miles out. Should be about 2 hours from the center.
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:49 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman
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DroopGB31,
Good point...." Perfect example being Charley."
With Charley, it was somewhat, "Oh, it's going into Tampa, ummm...AAAIIIIEEE!!!!!"
You cannot fool around with these things.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:52 AM |
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Re: Hitting West Cuba.... or not....
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Truthfully, it is something I have noticed on the Cat 4 and Cat 5's. These stronger storms, IMHO, seem to exert a bit of an influence in the local enviroment that seems to retard some of the forces in front of it. Maybe saying west is a bad term. Most of these storms are already moving in a generally western to WNW motion when I have seen this. It is probably more if a fluid dynamic that is associated with the strongest velocities being in the front right quadrant. Most of the time, that quadrant will be heading W or WNW. Hence my feeling of the extra force being exerted to force it more westerly then the models take into account.
This is all on personal observation with backyard physics. No good science in it.
Defective l key on this laptop keeps dropping l's
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:54 AM |
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Re: Recon
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New ETA has storm clipping Yucatan, new GFS has storm hitting western Cuba. A friend of mine and I used to joke back in the '80s about the disclaimer by the NHC at the end of the forecasts. We used to say "errors may exceed a few hundred thousand miles". Things have come a long way since then.
Sorry, edited to say Western Cuba......There is a 27 hour difference between Earth and Vulcan.....thanks for catching that
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:55 AM |
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Re: Recon
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Eastern Cuba?
Glad you edited that. If GFS had gone back east that far, I think I would never trust it again.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:57 AM |
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Re: WOBBLE!
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funny things there hurricanes.... several days ago it was forecasted by some that Ivan would be hard pressed to get west of 80-81w longitude.... unless something drastic happens in the immediate future he's going well past that benchmark...
still looks to be going around 285-290 overall heading.... but it's gaining latitude slowly, and moving that longitudinal line more to the west as well, which means its going to the GOM.... and most likely Coooba...... then..... ??
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:58 AM |
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Re: New models
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Split the difference to get the unofficial track.
| tenavilla |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:59 AM |
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Re: Recon
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Where do you get the new models from? Those other websites don't update them often enough.
| kelcot |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:59 AM |
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Re: New models
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I'm tellin' ya'll I have a no fail prediction system. (within 50 miles)
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:00 AM |
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Re: Recon
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umich.....here's the link:
http://cirrus.sprl.umich.edu/wxnet/model/model.html
I use the NCEP link most often.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:01 AM |
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Re: New models
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I just realized that Charlie was in exactly the same place as Ivan is now exactly one month ago. Look at one of the interactive sites where you can see the path of prior storms. Sept. 11, I van. August 11, Charlie. Kinda freaky.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:01 AM |
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Re: WOBBLE!
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>>>> but it's gaining latitude slowly, and moving that longitudal line more to the west as well, which means its going to the GOM.... and most likely Coooba...... then..... ??
well...if I lived on a boat...and that boat was in the GOM (sort of)...perhaps a bay bordering the GOM...then...
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:01 AM |
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Re: Hitting West Cuba.... or not....
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starting to see a NW wobble right now....has lasted the past 3 frames on IR. If this keeps up...........
Lou
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:01 AM |
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Re: Recon
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For the GFS and ETA NCEP
Bill
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:01 AM |
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Re: Recon
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Quote:'
Where do you get the new models from? Those other websites don't update them often enough.
What sites are you looking at ?
| tenavilla |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:04 AM |
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Re: Recon
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The links on this site to the spaghetti models. Sometimes they work, sometimes they don't. The wunderground still had runs from yesterday until a few minutes ago.
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:06 AM |
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current strength?
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Anyone got an idea on Ivan's current strength?
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:09 AM |
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Re: Recon
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Hurricane Alley has converted over to "for pay" for the charts and stuff, like the spaghetti models. Weather Underground is still free as far as I know, but they don't show as many models and sometimes are a little behind on updating the graphic.
Bill
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:13 AM |
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Canadian.... western outlier... LA/MS line in 96 hours
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Like it or not the Canadian has probably been as accurate as any other model to date with Ivan, it has always been the western outlier, but Ivan has been following the left side of the forecast track for days... maybe the Canadian is on to something..... last Tuesday it basically said New Orleans.... then during the week it shifted east, but not as much as the others, and the last several runs takes it to back SE LA and MS.... I don't buy that scenario yet, as I still think it will be the western panhandle... but its something that you still have to consider.... 96 hours out here's the poop.... literally..
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/134_50.gif
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:14 AM |
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Re: Canadian.... western outlier... LA/MS line in 96 hours
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The nogaps hasn't done that bad either .
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:15 AM |
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Re: Recon
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Yeah...they did that during Frances...Mike is promising us he won't have to convert to PPV, and all your contributions are helping ensure we stay ad-free, non-pay per view.
I don't wanna pimp for Mike, but anything you can paypal him would be great. he's done amazing work keeping this site up over the past few...even a couple of bucks will cover the new server he's gonna have in place next week...
Back to the wx, I say we got our selves one bad mother next week...let's hope someone can get a handle on his forward motion and tame his CAT V side.
Peace & god bless Grand Cayman Island...
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:20 AM |
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Boat on a bay....
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yeah LIPhil, I don't think I'd like to be on any kinda boat on any kinda bay with this monster coming at me.... . unless it was on the USS Alabama, which is sitting in a certain bay stuck deep in the mud and not going anywhere.... hehe
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:20 AM |
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Re: Canadian.... western outlier... LA/MS line in 96 hours
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Nogaps has been doing good on track. Just find it curious that it is definately too high on the pressures. Then again, I can not recall seeing any model that has been handling that really well.
| Londovir |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:21 AM |
| Attachment |
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New Recon Decoder Version
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For anyone who is interested, attached to this post is a new version of my Recon Decoder tool. There are some new features:
- Vortex Recons Decoding now better differentiates between the maximum flight level winds detected near the center and the maximum flight level winds overall (usually mentioned in remarks). There was some confusion the other (last?) night over the way my decoder was reporting the mfl winds.
- Decoder now offers decoding of Vortex Supplementary reports. These are the reports the planes make as they fly into and out of the storm. Useful for reporting the winds measured on both passes.
- Supplementary reports cleaned up into a nice table format. (Still working on cleaning up the Vortex report)
How to use:
- Save the attachment to your computer as "decoder.html" (any name is fine, but change the .txt to .html when you save)
- Load the file with your web browser's File->Open ability.
- Click the link for the desired report. A new browser window will open.
- Highlight and "Copy" the entire report from the new window. Close the window if you wish.
- "Paste" the report into the box on the decoder page.
- Click the "Decode" button.
I'm heading on to adding Tropical RECCO report handling next.
Cheers!
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:25 AM |
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Re: Canadian.... western outlier... LA/MS line in 96 hours
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see the latest run of the NOGAPS.... it gave birth during the run, either that of it took a big dum$........ i think it did this for Frances too.....hehe... but I agree its done well....
seems like Ivan is looking like he's moving more around 295-300 degrees during the past hour, a little more north than previous, and presently heading right at the Caymans...
ouch....
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:27 AM |
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Re: New Recon Decoder Version
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FYI Recon decoder posted at http://flhurricane.com/recondecoder.html
for you to use.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:27 AM |
Re: New models
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Hello all, alll I can say is WOW, many uneasy folks in many places right now past,present and future. Anyone see anything pulses, troughs West to East, North to South, anything that would lead you to believe this would somehow make it back to the Tampa area as a projected LF?
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:36 AM |
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Re: New models
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Until Ivan is north of Tampa's lattitude, I can still see a chance for landfall. However, it is looking somewhat unlikely at this time.
Heck, I still remember crazy Elena. After that storm, I vowed to never write anything off.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:40 AM |
Re: New models
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We are taking Charley as a lesson for anything that can will, but there must have been something that drove Charley away, anything seen for Ivan at this time?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:41 AM |
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Re: New models
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well looking at the oz models they are pretty much the same,,,and if anything a couple a TAD more E but not enough to really even show,.,couple like the GFS are about 20 miles farther east then the 18z run. I havent seen the Ukmet yet. Nogaps is still the same. Anyways I do think in the next few runs they will slide ever so slightly back east due to the slow movement and faster short wave pulses droping down first 1 will crash the ridge tomorrow night. 2nd one still up in the NW US but diving fast SE and should make it to Texas tomorrow night and Gulf Coast by Monday night into Tuesday,.,,,If Ivan slows anymore,,then the main trough will push him NE,,thing is where will Ivan be by Tuesday afternoon.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:42 AM |
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Re: New Recon Decoder Version
|
Londovir, this is so awesome... a lot of the people I work with at the Stennis Space Center in MS have a copy of your first edition, and they love it... they'll be very glad when they see the new upgraded version...
thanks
| kempshark |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:47 AM |
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Re: Tampa Area
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I'm praying Ivan speeds up a little......I'm thinking any delay just increases the chance he is turned more to the NE or E and endangers the WestCentral Gulf Coast of Florida.....I'm still deciding whether to leave town or not
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:55 AM |
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Re: Tampa Area
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Likewise, although many people have been in the " Sky is Falling" mode for 3 days now. My ex-wife wanted to drive the kids to Alabama and we decided against that Friday night. Could end up being the best decision ever. I agree with yor thoughts on the slow down. Keeps the window open.
| BabyCat |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:58 AM |
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recon
|
shouldn't the latest recon be out soon?
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:00 AM |
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Re: New models
|
Hey all...busy busy day.
I noticed that northerly component about 2 hours ago and I said to myself, "Self, it's probably just a wobble, so don't think too much of it until it stays that way for a while."
3 mets just mentioned the same thing. I'll have to eat a little bit of crow here (like a wing or beak) because I did a little bashing on him last week...but Dennis Phillips from ABC 28 just said, "Folks, this COULD just be a wobble, but if you look at these last two frames, it looks like it's beginning to have a more northerly movement to it..if this keeps up, and I hope it doesn't, the track I'm showing you on the screen might not be in the same place tomorrow night. Remember Charley?"
So.....I think (and this is only my opinion) that if it passes east of the Caymans, and further to the east in Cuba, the scenario might be a little different tomorrow. On the other hand, I might be eating a whole truckload of crow.
Note: I meant if it goes in between the Cayman Islands, not EAST.....DOH!
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:01 AM |
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Re: New models
|
Ok elminated a step on the decoder:
Link for decoder for vortex (Already supplied for you)
http://flhurricane.com/recondecoder.php
And the same with supplementary:
http://flhurricane.com/recondecoder.php?t=s
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:03 AM |
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Re: recon
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If it's on time. It should be up about 6-8 minutes after the hour.
Decoder: Mike and Londovir. That's awesome. Thanks.
| Londovir |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:06 AM |
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Re: New Recon Decoder Version
|
Thanks for the compliment(s)! I'm working away on this thing, and should have the next run of it with RECCO decode on the way before I finally head to bed tonight. (Shows what Mountain Dew in the veins can do for programming skills...)
I don't know if anyone has the know-how here, but I do have one question about recon decoding I haven't cracked yet. On both RECCO and Supplementary reports, there is a report of the millibar level the plane is flying at. I can understand most of them, but one is reported as follows:
"8..D-value in geopotential decameters (if negative, 500 is added to HHH)"
This one I don't get. Does anybody know what mb level this line would refer to? I'm more curious to know if a line is encoded as /8100, what meter height would it be? If it were /3100, I know it would be 3000m+100=3100m.
Oh well, still some things to learn. If these hurricanes keep rolling, this thing is going to turn into a big program....keep getting work and school canceled. (3rd time this year, not consecutively).
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:07 AM |
|
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Re: New models
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It looks like you may be right on the North move a bit. He has been hugging 80 Lo. pretty close. It looks like it could be a bit on the inside E of the Caymans
| BeachBum |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:08 AM |
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|
Forecasts and models
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Please excuse the rantings of a weather ignoramus, but it seems some aspects of the forecasts and models are being neglected.
1. I fail to see the objection to 5 day forecasts. Most negative comments are not about the forecast but the use of the forecast. Perhaps the problem is not the forecast (a set of 4-dimensional locations) but their presentation.
The NHC adds to the set of points line segments (most probable path?) and a "cone" (likely area to be within the eye?). Perhaps more useful additions to the points would be arcs to indicate distance the system might travel in a given time. In contrast to the current "cone" these arcs need not be symmetrical. The current presentation indicates an equal degree of uncertainty in either lateral direction.
Also, if the "cone" is eliminated, the points could become centers for an overlay of the predicted size of the system. The current graphic shows how large an area MIGHT be affected, but not how large an area WILL be affected. The arc through the center of this representation would show the uncertainty of where that area would be.
2. Most of the comments about the discrepancy between the forecast position and the actual position are 4-dimensional. My casual obsevation of the paths of storms shows greater correlation in 3 dimensions. While the pace of the storms has not been well predicted, the variations from the geographic paths have not been so problematic.
Since location in time is so difficult, perhaps another item could be added to the presentaion suggested above. In addition to the arc through the predicted location, perhaps another line segment along the anticipated path to show the 90 percentile for distance travelled. This segment will be much longer for points beyond 24 hours, but would better indicate the degree of uncertainty.
3. Finally, I have seen much discussion, comparison and critique of various models. I have seen little mention of what these models are working with. Each model is an attempt to reproduce a highly complex analog system with a very restricted set of digital data. It is my view the problems are not with the models, but with the absence of data.
Before any model can ever be relied upon, much more environmental data (historical and current) will be needed. I do not know how fine grain the data needs to be, but it certainly will have to not only be more frequent, but be much more closely spaced on the surface, below the surface, as well as in the atmosphere.
Even IF one of the current models was "perfect" we would never know it because we are unable to feed it the data necessary to correctly represent the external reality.
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:15 AM |
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Re: New models
|
THIS isnt a wobble. it is moving north.....
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:18 AM |
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Re: New models
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It sure seems that way looking how it is sidestepping the forecast point here http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:18 AM |
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Re: New models
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The move does seem to have some conviction behind it.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:18 AM |
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Re: New Recon Decoder Version
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Per the following link, page G-3. The / is: " No absolute alt. available or goepotential data not within +/- 30mtrs or 4mb accuracy requirements."
http://www.ofcm.gov/nhop/02/pdf/r-app-g.pdf
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:19 AM |
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Re: New models
|
meto,,,,not saying your wrong but where do you see its not a wobble? There is a NNW jog over last 2 frames (1 hour). Where do you see more....Also where do you live if you dont mind me asking,,,,,,ty
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:20 AM |
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Re: New Recon Decoder Version
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That's so awesome, Londovir! It's great to see so many smart people live in LAKELAND.
One thing that concerns me: this storm is so far out, given the slowdown in the last 24 -36 hours, that I have heard a lot of people say "Oh, we're out of the woods now!" The mets and the NHC can scream at the top of their lungs all day long: "THERE ARE HUGE MARGINS FOR ERROR", but the public (excluding weather geeks like ourselves) take that track and solidify it in their minds and tune out. Once they see that cone OFF the state of Florida, they think the all clear has been given.
Charley caught people off guard, and we know what happened.
| OZ IN FL |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:22 AM |
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Re: New models
|
Reposted by MikeC
Mike et al...Awesome site.....I listen to the "sky is falling" media and then log on to "listen" to rational people discuss what is happening.
About that boat......House on East FL.......boat on West FL........Truck in Gulfport MS.....Hubby on a big grey boat hanging out in the GOM.......me thinks I'm screwed.
Phil....I was taught this at an early age back home....I think it is fitting for today.
And with the going down of the sun....we will remember them.
Lest we forget.
RJ
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:23 AM |
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Re: New models
|
last image I have is 03:45.... its not moving North from that image, that would be 360 degrees or 0 degrees, pick your poison... its moving around 300 degrees, maybe 310 at best during the last loops I Iooked at... and its heading right at the Caymans... it might be a direct hit.... now could this be the begining of the long awaited NW turn, maybe so... we'll need some more pixs to confirm.....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:25 AM |
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Re: New models
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You have only the 345z as your last update? I have 515z.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:26 AM |
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Re: New models
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Scott, meto said this:
Quote:
THIS isnt a wobble. it is moving north.....
Our eyes our tired...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:28 AM |
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All Clear?
|
Colleen,
I haven't been hearing anyone saying 'we're in the clear" way to early for that.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:29 AM |
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Re: New models
|
geesh, that's the latest one I have... off GOES, hell I'm not even looking at the latest loops....
sorry
I'm just delerious from all viewing all this looping stuff... right now I'm so tired I don't care what direction its heading and need to go to bed...
but thanks for correcting me.... please disregard my last post as it was totally useless....
perhaps I need to check in a Holiday Inn for the night...
nite all....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:29 AM |
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Re: New models
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I know colleen , I just want to hear what he says.LOL.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:30 AM |
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Sat Loops
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Maybe Frank P isn't on Daylight Savings Time.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:30 AM |
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Re: New models
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Its all good Frank, you do well. Thing is I have Sat view without the eclipse.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:34 AM |
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Re: All Clear?
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I'm not talking about people here......I'm talking about the people walking around my town, which is about 45 miles to the NE of Tampa.
TWC just mentioned the NW jog. That's 3 hours worth of "NW jog" comments now.
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:38 AM |
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Re: New models
|
its still on 80 has been since 1030 1100 pm maybe felling trof and western edge of ridge twc i seeing it too,
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:39 AM |
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NW Jog
|
I seem to remember the other day, Ivan was supposed to "jog" to the east of Jamaica. It ended up skirting around S and W of the island. I think I'll stick with the NHC track for now before I jump on the NW turn bandwagon.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:41 AM |
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Re: New models
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meto they are using the eclipse so they wont have the new sat view till 215am,,,,well actually I know they have the sat view that i get but they dont show it.. Anyways where do you live,,and btw yes there is a movement to the NW or NNW but should be NW.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:42 AM |
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Re: New models
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I guess all this jogging answers my question from post:
Re: New models [Re: kelcot]
#25696 - Sun Sep 12 2004 12:27 AM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:53 AM |
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Re: NW Jog
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Hey, Tim? I'm not arguing with you. I'm just telling you what I see on the loops, it's being confirmed by the mets and the Weather Channel has been mentioning it, too. It's not like this wasn't supposed to happen, it was more of a "when" not "if", which WAS forecasted by the NHC. Jamaica was, according to the NHC, supposed to take a direct hit from Ivan, and it did not.
That's not their fault, I'm not questioning them. I'm just telling you what I see and what I'm hearing from people that live here.
You can stick with the NHC if you want to, but this is a board where people discuss what they see and more often than not, it pretty much sticks with what the NHC says.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:54 AM |
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Re: New models
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For those that still want to track IVAN you can view him on Cuban Radar.. http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/dia.asp Select Radares and Cienfegos.
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MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:04 AM |
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Re: New models
|
Ok I'm finished playing with the new recon decoder:
http://flhurricane.com/recondecoder.php
Changed the look a bit, automated it, and added color highlighting to position, windspeed, and pressure (most common you look for)
Also, Recon data is now tracked in our text weather data (yay)
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:05 AM |
|
Newest advisory out
|
Still 910 and & near 165 mph winds
Quote:
2 am EDT position...18.4 N... 80.4 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...165 mph. Minimum central pressure... 910 mb.
'shana
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:07 AM |
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Re: New models
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Thank you for the link. My wife is from and has family in Camaguey. You know it's been a long day. I just saw the Miami Dolphin score.
| BabyCat |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:09 AM |
Re: New models
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Excellent!!!
Also glad to see you have given up that "having a life" business
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:09 AM |
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Re: New models
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Beautiful, thanks for sharing !!!!
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:10 AM |
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Re: New models
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Great link, thanks!
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:10 AM |
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New recon fix
|
Slightly weaker at 915mb, but that's picking nits. Ivan may be going through an eyewall replacement cycle again, as the recon notes that the current eyewall is weak on the south side (20mi. eye) but that there is a secondary wind max at a radius of 33mi. Max flight-level winds in the NW quadrant were 133kt.
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:13 AM |
Re: New recon fix
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I just went by what the advisory said...
Guess the advisory was sent out before recon data came in?
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:21 AM |
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Re: New recon fix
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Hi, where did you see 915? Advisory still showing 910.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:23 AM |
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Re: New recon fix
|
URNT12 KNHC 120547
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/0547Z
B. 18 DEG 26 MIN N
80 DEG 25 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2344 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 053 DEG 133 KT
G. 323 DEG 11 NM
H. 915 MB
I. 11 C/ 3084 M
J. 21 C/ 3079 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. WEAK SOUTH
M. C20
N. 12345/7
O. .1/1 NM
P. AF977 2209A IVAN OB 06
MAX FL WIND 133 KT NW QUAD 0544Z. GOOD RADAR PRESENTATION.
SECONDARY WIND MAX 324 DEG AT 33NM.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:26 AM |
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Re: New recon fix
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Thanks
| Mooshie-SC |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:27 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman
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Looks like the updated models are showing a sharp NE turn into SC after making landfall in FL. Anyone else seeing that?
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:27 AM |
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Re: New recon fix
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Seems like they would schedule recon to be there about 30-60 minutes earlier. So the new data gets in the advisory.
I guess that's why they don't-it makes sense.
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:29 AM |
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Re: New models
|
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/530_50.gif
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/531_50.gif
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/695_50.gif
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/492_50.gif
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/133_50.gif
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/134_50.gif
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/135_50.gif
These are the CMC models I have been looking at that have Ivan the furthest S and W than any other model and to this point to me the most accurate to this point.The S side track of the NHC models are or get close to this track.If you look up the history of the CMC you will see it is awful close to this point.
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:30 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman
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no.... looks like a gradual turn w/ a big cone of uncertainty.
I'm looking at wunderground 2am map
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:37 AM |
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Re: New models
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Javlin, they are further west than any of the Canadian models I've seen. Grand Isle and New Orleans? That puts a lot of area in the NE quadrant!
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:39 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman
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Alright all, time for me to get some zzzzz's If not now I won't be able to stay up when I will really want and need to. Thanks for the insight and perspectives.
| Mooshie-SC |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:41 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan Approaches Grand Cayman
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But isn't that track based on the NOGAPS that ran over 16 hours ago? I've noticed that the latest BAM, UKMET, and GFS that were just run have it turning east much more quickly than the NOGAPS and GFDL run early yesterday. Weather Underground Forecast Models
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:41 AM |
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Re:Poor initialization
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the problem i have with the NHC on there models is that everytime they throw a model out it's almost going NW.If you can not get the correct direction in the first 6hrs doesn't that just turn the the whole model into trash.They fail to recognize the effect of the ridge to the N.Yea they will get it right before long a blind man
throwing at a dart board will get lucky somewhere.The ridge is going to break down is it 81' 83' let's try get a handle on that part it's not to far away geeez.
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:43 AM |
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Re: New models
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Look at the history of the model Dan every night about 11:00pm CDT Montrealboy has been posting them @ S2K.I have been watching them closely puts the NHC to shame.
Yea Dan it does and I keep saying to this point seems far W to me to but what is the history of this storm.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 07:05 AM |
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Re: New models
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I mentioned this to Phil earlier. I guess it's safe now to mention it here.
Camille was forecast to hit between Ft Walton Beach and St Mark's FL. The watch was posted 36 hours in advance from Biloxi to St Marks. The warning went up 3 hours after the watch!, from Ft Walton Bch to St Mark's.
At 5 am the next day, 18 hours before landfall, the warnings were extended west to cover Biloxi.
At 9 am, four hours after the first warning extension, a second extension to New Orleans and Grand Isle,LA was issued.
Camille struck about 25 miles west of Biloxi at 11pm, on Sunday Aug 17th.
Contrary to TWC, she had an extremely low pressure also.
Measured by Navy Recon to be 26.61" or 901mb, with a max flt level wind of 190mph.
*They are totally unpredictable!! Get ready now and pray you don't have to leave. If you do have to leave, you are ready to go right then.*
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 07:10 AM |
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Re: CHECK SATS!
|
SATS ARE UP
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 07:11 AM |
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Re: CHECK SATS!
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IVAN MOVED!!!! NW MORE? ALOT MORE!
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 07:12 AM |
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Re: Satellites
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Sats are back up, and Ivan has cleaned up his appearance.
The eye is smaller than earlier, and there is more outflow in the NW quadrant ahead of the storm.
The Gulfstream is also enroute to conduct High Level Recon.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 07:40 AM |
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Re: CHECK SATS!
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What sats are you guys looking at?
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 07:41 AM |
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Re: CHECK SATS!
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http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/east/
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 08:33 AM |
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Re: CHECK SATS!
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Now that's an impressive image - Ivan and Javier.
| Domino |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 08:57 AM |
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Re: CHECK SATS!
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Okay...so am I reading the discussion right...they are forecasting this thing to go from a 110KT major hurricane to a 60KT Tropical Storm...in 12 hours? What kinda sheer are they expecting over the gulf? *looks around for the turbofans creating the incredible hurricane stopping wall*
EDIT: It appears there was an error in the discussion forecast. The 60KT forecast was suppose to be "inland" not "over water".
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 10:23 AM |
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Re: CHECK SATS!
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I have just noticed that the ULL in the atlantic is getting squashed:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html
So if that is happening to the ULL, what is doing it and how will that effect the westward movement of IVAN will that Entity stop IVAN's Westward movement and force him back to the east as well?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 11:40 AM |
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Westward Ho!
|
This storm is still further west than the forecast track, is this going to pull a Mitch?
| jlauderdal |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 11:47 AM |
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Re: Westward Ho!
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Quote:
This storm is still further west than the forecast track, is this going to pull a Mitch?
i just posted on s2k and put out the scenario of a big slowdown or stall and it styas down there and we eventually get a track way east
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 11:50 AM |
|
Last two hours=mostly WEST
|
Last two hours of IR loops shows Ivan mostly west and looks at the moment that it will pass south and west of the Caymen Island..... right now it is due south of the island..... could the Canadian have this thing pegged???... I sure hope not.... the island will get pounded for sure but unless he takes a very hard right, they will not get the worst of the eye wall.... Ivan has not made landfall yet as a Cat 5, but he's running out of options and will have to nail somebody before it all said an done..
things keep trending west, a good sign for central and south florida, not to good for panhandle and perhaps westward?
you can also see the westward movement on the Cuba radar loop, link below
http://www.met.inf.cu/Radar/01Cienfuegos/cienfuegosa.gif
hard to sleep with a monster lurking about...
As I said about Frances, that I didn't think it would be Floyd type track, I'm starting to think that Ivan will not be a Charlie type event either... just don't see a strong trof playing out and shunting him off to the NE..... but this is a slow moving hurricane and no one can say for sure.... every one from LA to the Fl Keys are still in the game as far as I'm concerned
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 11:56 AM |
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Re: Westward Ho!
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Ivan has consistenly gained latitude from the get go... and I see no reason why he should not continue to do that... Not sure about another stall but that seems possible with weak stearing currents.... still making slow but steady progress.... more west than north, but moving at least...
be that as it may, you just never know about these things and I well remember how Mitch was forecasted to go NW towards the GOM and he took a hard left due west into Central America...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 12:04 PM |
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Re: Westward Ho!
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Quote:
Ivan has consistenly gained latitude from the get go... and I see no reason why he should not continue to do that... Not sure about another stall but that seems possible with weak stearing currents.... still making slow but steady progress.... more west than north, but moving at least...
be that as it may, you just never know about these things and I well remember how Mitch was forecasted to go NW towards the GOM and he took a hard left due west into Central America...
Local met just said the slower Westerly movement is worse for us on West coast and indicated if it ended up on the Yucatan it would get pulled to the Big Bend area. I guess getting caught up in the Westerlies.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 12:20 PM |
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Re: Westward Ho!
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that might end up being the case and for my sake I sure hope so as I don't want any part of the thing... but right now as things appear on the sat and radar loops it sure looks to be heading towards the Yucatan Channel or extreme western tip of Cuba.... of course things can and do change...
you look at the overall track history since entering the Caribbean he's been on a basically overall steady WNW direction for a long time.... I think this will continue for a while longer before the NW to N to perhaps a NNE turn... and I think I'm am buying what the models are dishing out at the moment..... for the short term anyway
if its stalls, all bets are off naturally.....
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 12:32 PM |
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Re: Westward Ho!
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I just spotted a trof dipping down into the masondixon area of theUS. This little cane hangs around playing the callipso much longer and it will get booted back over the Tampa Bay area as though it was intended to go there all along. DISCLAIMER:
I have no business making forecasts as I did not stay at a Holiday INN last night and I don't know a trof from a trough!
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 12:37 PM |
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Re: Westward Ho!
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hehe....
heck it might just wobble right on to the WNW all the way to Texas .... who knows
slow moving powerful hurricanes are such a royal pain in the butt......
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 12:38 PM |
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Re: Westward Ho!
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looks as if there could be a east turn now in the gom.... i see the ULL of florida weakening and a strong ridge coming down out of middle of US, which i think the models are picking up on..... problem is timing....storm has got to get into gulf for it to get picked up and shoved NE and possibly to the east coast, through florida and out to atlantic.... looks like Panama City eastward to Fort Myers, more like Big Bend, to Fort Myers look to be under the gun.....interesting that ivan is about to miss his another island
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 12:43 PM |
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Re: Shear!
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for some reason i see the shear starting to take effect in the gulf.... look just off the texas coast..... strong shear too....
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 12:47 PM |
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Re: Westward Ho!
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I must have missed the northerly component while sleeping. That is too bad, as I would have liked to see it go with the mets are saying. I'm still saying miss Cuba and end up much further west than projections.
I also wanted to reply to the long post on page 5 about the models. I don't remember all of my points, but I agreed with some of what you said. I personally like the 5-day forecast for scientific purposes, not public knowledge. 5-days is way too far out to get a good estimate, but a bad estimate (to me) is better than nothing. I think the cone is vital to those models, as it shows the uncertainty. So, when you're comparing shifts in model predictions, ask yourself.... is it still in the original cone? The the model is valid and the shift is reasonable. The reason the cone is so large at 5-days is the uncertainty increases dramatically. If you remove the cone, you will panic the public, who do not understand that the model predictions are only estimates and not the actual track. They will think that the actual model prediction is what is going to happen. People tend to overrestimate the knowledge and understanding of the general public.... We are not the general public! The cone at least shows the possibility of error. Anyway, I would try and deter the media from showing this forecast and often unnecessarity worrying the public.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 12:50 PM |
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Re: Shear!
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Your right there is some shear, but the storm isn't forecasted to go into the central Gulf. The storm right now is crazy strong, on the infared imagery there is some black cloud tops, you hardely ever see those!
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 12:58 PM |
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Re: Shear!
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I'm just not seeing this north turn, maybe a NW turn but anything more than that is drastic. It seems like all the models want the hurricane to hit Florida or near it. Maybe I'm not seeing what the models are seeing but it seems that the models keep on turning Ivan and Ivan plows thur on it's WNW NW course. That would be something if it made landfall on the Yutcatan Penisula.
| tenavilla |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 12:59 PM |
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Re: Shear!
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Anyone notice that hurricane force winds now extend 90 miles from the center. Seems like yesterday morning they only extended 30, or maybe 50?
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 01:00 PM |
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Re: Shear!
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You mean NM?
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 01:01 PM |
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Re: Shear!
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I am sure this hurricane has not read climatology and does not give a rotten fig for what we think of it. But it is sure interesting to watch.
| tenavilla |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 01:02 PM |
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Re: Shear!
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No, 8am advisory definitely says mile, not nm. 90 miles / 150 km.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 01:03 PM |
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Re: Shear!
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We are all wondering where this will end up. I think I have the answer. If you see a Weather Channel van in your neighborhood, LEAVE!
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 01:04 PM |
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Re: Shear!
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Okay, then that's quite a large area of expansion. I can't imagine what Gilbert had looked like!
| tenavilla |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 01:05 PM |
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Re: Shear!
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On another note, here in Tampa one of the local mets just gave a weather update. He all but said we're in the clear and might get some rain, light winds. That's the kind of attitude that gets people hurt. Residents listen to that and don't pay attention to warnings anymore. Ivan's still an awful long way out there to start thinking we're okay.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 01:05 PM |
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Re: Shear!
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yes, yesterday the advisories were 50 or something like that....I noticed that expanded also. Part of that could be the reformation of the eyewall, which may be related to the bottom line of the latest message:
260
URNT12 KNHC 121108
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/1108Z
B. 18 DEG 43 MIN N
81 DEG 05 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2374 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 333 DEG 116 KT
G. 229 DEG 010 NM
H. 919 MB
I. 10 C/ 3084 M
J. 16 C/ 3083 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO 12/60
N. 12345/7
O. .1/1 NM
P. AF977 2209A IVAN OB 25
MAX FL WIND 140 KT NE QUAD 0726Z. SECONDARY EYEWALL AND WIND
MAX 60 NM DIA. GOOD RADAR PRESENTATION. WIND CENTER 2 NM DIA.
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 01:14 PM |
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Re: Shear!
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It's like if you see a 60 Minutes crew at your doorstep in the morning...lol
But it seems the cone has shrunk just a bit when they had Dr Lyons on a few minutes ago, and he said until it goes more west Tampa Bay is not out of play yet.....My biggest concern if this monster keeps moving westerly, New Orleans may be in play and that could be catastrophic. And for us here in North Georgia, if Ivan makes landfall in the panhandle, it's path would be the difference between having heavy rain and winds or having heavy rain, winds and tornadic activity....
| robynsmom |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 01:16 PM |
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Re: Westward Ho!
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Remind me...what did Mitch do?
| CentralFlorida |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 01:18 PM |
Re: Shear!
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A monster storm like Ivan TampaBay is not out of the woods by no means yet
| Ormond Suzie |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 01:20 PM |
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Break in ridge to north?
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Check out RSO GOES-East Water Vapor 7-Minute Sector
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgeir3.html
I'm truly a novice, but to me this looks as if a small trof has actually broken thru the ridge to the north of the gulf and Florida. And on other water vapor images, it appears that the ridge between Ivan and the gulf is thinning just north of Cuba - a change in this area can be seen at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html, where you can also see the flattening of the ULL to the east of Florida that was referenced in an earlier post.
I'm wondering if these two trends in the ridge/trof topography may give Ivan the opportunity to break out and head in a more northerly fashion .
I'm a long-time avid reader of Flhurricane, but rarely post, except for on-the-spot reports from Ormond Beach during a storm.
| Kal |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 01:21 PM |
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Re: Shear!
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Jeff - I was up in White County, GA when the remnants of Opal came through back in the mid 90's. The winds knocked our power out for days, and besides the wind itself all you could hear were snapping pine trees.
Of course now I'm a half-mile from the Gulf of Mexico...and I won't stick around for the sights and sounds.
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 01:24 PM |
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Re: Shear!
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Well Frances sure caught everyone by suprise here in Atlanta. Fraternity Row at Ga Tech just got their power back on Friday evening, and things were so bad at the height of the storm that one county actually had their buses out on the road when the cancelled schools for the day(DeKalb Co.) and the entire state computer system including GEMA's website was down for 18 hours on Tuesday.....
I only shudder to think what would happen if we get stronger winds and more rain this time around.....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 01:33 PM |
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Re: Shear!
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The models yesterday had Ivan going WNW,NW,N. That has not happened. I have just seen WNW.
Now what if he continues WNW towards the yucatan slowly, the ridge starts to break he turns more NW, then north and then NNE or Ne towards say cedar key as the trough digs in.
The models are begining to get a little bend NE at 120 hours. Ivan has not been cooperating as far as the timing of all these features. Remember he is now 24 hours behind the forecast of 2 days ago.
As things changed in the atmosphere yesterday they will change again unless Ivan starts going along with the NHC. The more he takes his sweet time west things will start to change again. Indeed it will be one interesting week ahead.
(I am as amateur as you can get. I hope this made sense to some of you. If a met can clarify these possibilities in a more professional way it would be appreciated.)
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 01:38 PM |
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Re: Shear!
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Was hurricane Mitch like this, in terms of it's track?
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 01:45 PM |
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Re: Shear!
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Intially, no, Mitch was much further south, but got pulled all the way from the Bay of Campeche NE across Florida.
Bill
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 01:46 PM |
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Re: Shear!
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that was pretty much a scenario of several people on this board.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 01:58 PM |
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Models and Troughs
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I may have said this before but models ALWAYS have a bias when it comes to troughs( or "trofs"). Every model just about will have the trough effecting the storm in almost every case. The problem is that it doesn't happen that way every time. That is why you have to take the models with a grain of salt right now.How long have the models been dictating a NW movement when it has been moving WNW at most. Don't be fooled into automatically thinking that just because these models want to have these troughs have an effect on Ivan that it will happen. Remember, Ivan didn't pay attention to the first trough and he just might not pay attention to any of the rest. Until he actually makes a DEFINITE turn towards the north, definite meaning not just wobbles, than it is just here-say right now.
ShawnS
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 02:03 PM |
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Re: Models and Troughs
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it looks to me like it could avoid a us strike altogether. its getting closer and closer to the yucatan peninsula. whats your thought on that?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 02:04 PM |
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Re: Shear!
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What are the chances of this thing now heading North and more East? My neighbor just returned 10 sheets of plywood he is so confident it won't hit Central Florida.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 02:05 PM |
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Westward trend continues
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Good morning everyone. Here in the peninsula of Florida it's another beautiful day. Certainly not the deteriorating conditions that NHC had predicted a couple of days ago.
I imagine that although there is no one there to enjoy it, the day is pretty fantastic in Key West as well.
I think everyone is learning a valuable lesson from Ivan.
That is you have to actually watch the storm to know where it is going and you really can not even begin to trust the 4 and 5 day forecast tracks.
There is such a fine line on when to evacuate and when to stay. Local governments are really forced to make crucial decisions based on the latest forecasts. I'm sure many will have less hair to pull out after Ivan has passed.
I drove up to Daytona Beach yesterday and viewd the damage along the beach. There is a LOT of damage to the hotels and related business's all up and down A1A.
It will take months and months to repair/rebuild there.
As of this morning, I see very little Northward trend in Ivan's track. I did see the ridge building in to the West for the past few days. It has to weakend sometime.
Until then, watch and wait.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 02:05 PM |
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Re: Models and Troughs
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It all depends on those 500 mb winds, if they change then the path of the hurricane will change. Florida is not out of the woods yet.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 02:07 PM |
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Re: Shear!
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The models continue to push the northern turn to the west with each run, and I am wondering now if it is at all possible for a Louisiana or Texas landfall
| mud1967 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 02:09 PM |
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Re: Shear!
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I live in Tallahassee and my parents live in Pensacola. Do you think that it might be possible for both of us to have Ivan effects?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 02:13 PM |
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New Orleans NWS
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http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lix/cgi-bin/previous2.php?pil=LIXAFDLIXW&version=0
This pretty much sums up what I said in my earlier post.
ShawnS
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 02:16 PM |
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Re: Shear!
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looking at sat and obs.... shear is starting to take effect in gulf, in response to weakness coming down across the mid and western gulf coast states....also note that the ULL east of florida is now moving ne..... i am thinking we will see a more north movement in the next few hrs, just clipping the cuban coast and than a ne turn.... it all depends on how a 915mb (IVAN) low responds to the features to the north.....yes it appears in 25-36 hrs ivan has a bigger wind field and is much larger.... how much this will help when he gets into the gulf will determine i think on how much of a shear beating he will take..... i am thinking a northerly movement should start within 12-24hrs.... i also think ivan just finished a eye wall replacement....there is strong convection on se side in last hr... recon is almost to storm.... should have vortex soon
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 02:29 PM |
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EYE vis.
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I think IVAN eye is on the comeback this morning. Looking at vis in last hour, i am seeing what looks like another stadium effect coming back, which could be a sign of eyewall replacement is over. Yes i do think forward speed has picked up! The caymans are still taking a hit right now, winds should be over 115mph and they should be getting large swells too! Recon is dropping in alt now, so they should be at outer bands now....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 02:40 PM |
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Re: EYE vis.
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I think they misnamed ivan as ivan the terrible,should have been Ivan the island skipper,maybe he likes large land masses>
| teal61 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 02:40 PM |
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Re: Shear!
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Louisiana is becoming more and more of a possibility as each hour goes by. Texas is probably a long shot, as least for now.
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 02:45 PM |
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Re: Shear!
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New thread started.
Bill
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 02:47 PM |
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Re: EYE vis.
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Ok guys this is an opinion and it is based on my having gone outside and looked up at the sky. We have large puffy clouds at the lower levels but we also have hurricane blow off skittering across the area too. For those of you who are new. I am in Polk County. TampaBay area schools have been closed for Monday some for Tuesday as well. I am believing that although we won;t get a hurricane tomorrow or Tuesday, I am concerned that people will start to go back to life as usual and we will get hit on Wednesday and Thursday. It is not anything I can scientifically prove. I hope I am wrong. But, I have been noticing the Cedar Key thing myself for about 24 hours and I am no expert. I wish they would leave the politics out of this so we could get some real information.
| KC |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 02:51 PM |
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Re: EYE vis.
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I agree - I'm in Naples. Collier County EM has just advised no new actions today but continue to monitor. Schools are closed tomorrow (Collier schools are used as shelters; HS near my house is being used for those under mandatory evac from Charlotte Co as they have no place to go). I am still very uneasy about this one.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:40 PM |
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Re: New Orleans NWS
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Shawn, If you remember on my post a day or two ago,I said that it would end up in the middle of the Gulf and make a turn toward the NE. I still believe this will be the track Ivan will take. I think it will make landfall somewhere between Pensacola and Apalachacola. Willy in Lapalce ,La.