MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 08:48 PM |
Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards
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7:15 Update
Ivan threads the needle and avoids a direct landfall on Cuba, the eye is now partially in the Gulf.
Jim Williams and his Hurricane City Broadcast from 8PM till 11PM and running radio from Jamaica at other times... -- Link to Real Audio -- updated!
Let Jim know where you are from.. Use this link to listen
The City of New Orleans, LA is under a voluntary evacuation now. NO Prep Guide, Jefferson Parish, LA. (Links to other EM sites and event related links for possibly affected areas are welcome)
Other counties, such as Gulf County, in Florida are starting evacuations now. See local media for details. (Gratuitous Link to JKs WJHG7 here (Panama City Beach,FL))
5:15PM Update
Recon has found 910mb pressure since the 5PM advisory. It's still a strong Category 5 storm.
Original Update
Tropical Depression Eleven has formed East of the Leeward islands,. A tropical storm warning is up for Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Tropical Storm Watches are up for the British Virgin Islands, Saba, St. Eustatius and St. Marteen.
Hurricane Ivan is moving more northward now--to the North Northwest-- and should barely clip the extreme western end of Cuba. It's moving North Northwest now, which means its track north is underway.
Hurricane watches may go up along the northeastern gulf coast late tonight.
The future track still has it making landfall in the Florida Panhandle, and if anything, now I think it would trend further east than anything. That means that the West coast of Florida is still not in the clear. I think the models are, for once, too far left. It seems like the National Hurricane Center has a pretty good handle on it now. Although it depends on if Ivan continues to move or if it slows down in the gulf.
More to come later...
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Event RelatedLinks
Closeup Animated Visible Satellite of Ivan
Stormcarib Reports from the Cayman Islands
Cuban Radar Images
Police , fire and rescue scanner audio feeds from Gulf Coast locations
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
TD#11 Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
Weather Underground Model Plots for Ivan
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image
Animated Color Ivan Satellite (With NHC Track Overlay)
(Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
Key West (Florida Keys)Long Range Radar Loop
Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures
General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps
Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info
Disaster Relief Information
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 08:59 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards
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Interesting portion of the 5pm NHC advisory:
>>>At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 21.3 north...longitude 84.9 west or about 30 miles...
45 km...south of the western tip of Cuba.
Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr.
However...a northwestward motion is expected to resume later tonight
or early Tuesday morning<<<<<<<<<
Sounds like they are thinking the hurricane is not going to continue a recurve....
--Lou
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 08:59 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards
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ODD, but the official track shifted back west a little?????? Haven't seen the discussion, but am curious.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 08:59 PM |
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Hurricane Winds
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Hurricane force winds now out 115 miles and T.S. winds out 220 miles. Not only a monster storm but getting larger and larger.
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:01 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards
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Thanks for the new thread, Mike. Appreciate it greatly.
It looks to me like Ivan's speeding up and turning north. It doesn't look to be like a job on satellite, though the NHC did a nice job of covering by saying they expect Ivan to go back to NW later tonight.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/AOI/AOI0_wv_loop.html
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:04 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards
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mobile now has highest percentage at any given point in time.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:04 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards
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Looking at wunderground's graphic...SCARY. Landfalling as a CAT IV and remaining a CAT II that far inland...holy you know what.
As someone said on the previous thread, if it hasn't already, the excrement will soon be hitting the wind blowing device!
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:06 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards
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Has the discussion come out? I can't find it.
I am curious why with the NNW movement that they shifted the track back west again.
Actually if you look at the newest models, they had the NNW movement, but continue it for quite a while and even (as suggested by NHC) go back NW. They are very tightly cludtered now on the MS/AL/FL borders.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:07 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards
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Yeah, I thought it was me.
But it looks like Stacy's writing it, so we should become much better informed momentarily...
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:08 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards
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Must be a real in depth discussion.......
waiting to see what he thinks
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:09 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards
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Quote:
Has the discussion come out? I can't find it.
I am curious why with the NNW movement that they shifted the track back west again.
Maybe because the advisory says it will go back to the NW??? No clue... come on discussion.... I have to go take my son to gymnastics now....
| rickonboat |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:09 PM |
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This hurricane is getting on my nerves
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Latest 4 models show a nice loop into our area. Baldwin County schools, just across the bay are closing, and even our dealership is starting to hunker down. This will be a bad storm, I am afraid. a bad one..
my boat, a 34' Marine Trader trawler....is toast....if this thing hits....
but more than that...what about the people along the coast?...
Hurricane Fred came in a low tide in '79, and downtown Mobile had 8' of water....
ominous thoughts...25' of water...wipe this place out...
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:11 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards
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MOBILE AL X 1 14 4 19
GULFPORT MS X 2 13 5 20
BURAS LA X 6 12 3 21
I read Buras La has the highest, Gulfport 2nd and Mobile 3rd... albeit not much difference in the three...
does any one have a link to the updated track???
| GaryC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:12 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards
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Well, regardless what the models are saying right now. It wasnt supposed to go n or nnw until it passed cooooba and it has started that early, it wasnt going to be that far west but it is. I think that just like frances, we are going to have to take a wait and see approach with it. It could very well take a hard left and go to mexico just as well as it could come to Fl. Lets see what direction it is going after coooba cause it could stall it out some and change everything.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:13 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards
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It been moving moreless NW with a turn to the NNW so they are saying NNW but dont expect that to continue. Reason they have the track about the same or slightly west is cause they run the 5pm tracks off the 12z runs of the models..Now like Jason says,,,lets see if the models initialize IVAN with the current NNW movement,, if so, and they turn it more N then NNE or NE it might be earlier before landfall. In that case the NHC will see those 18z runs and use them for the 11pm forcast path. Everyone with me? So generally 12z was 8am with the models, then NHC uses its path in general with the models from the previous runs which was 12z.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:13 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards
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Buras has the highest because it the most south
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:14 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards
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I was actually talking about the point in time that they expect landfall. Mobile has highest at 14%. like you said not much difference from many other places. Kind of just a joke actually.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:16 PM |
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Re: This hurricane is getting on my nerves
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Rick,
There's no way you can take the boat out of the water? It will probably be on dry land at some point anyway.
Seriously, though, all thoughts and prayers are squarely with you now...
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:16 PM |
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Rick, you might be the man of the hour...
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I know this has got to be killing you.... but we've always known it was a possibility, now its almost a reality for you... I have several family members in Mobile... hey, my brother is named Rick too.... hehe
He'll be panicking big time tonight.... things can and do change, hopefully it will go to the east of you... nothing personal panhandle folks... but I got to much personal interest in Mobile...
this will be an intense week for many of us...
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:16 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards
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Quote:
It been moving moreless NW with a turn to the NNW so they are saying NNW but dont expect that to continue. Reason they have the track about the same or slightly west is cause they run the 5pm tracks off the 12z runs of the models..Now like Jason says,,,lets see if the models initialize IVAN with the current NNW movement,, if so, and they turn it more N then NNE or NE it might be earlier before landfall. In that case the NHC will see those 18z runs and use them for the 11pm forcast path. Everyone with me? So generally 12z was 8am with the models, then NHC uses its path in general with the models from the previous runs which was 12z.
Scott, are you quoting yourself now? LOL. This thing is making us all nuts.
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:18 PM |
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Latest Vortex...910mb!!!!
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662
URNT12 KNHC 132053
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/2053Z
B. 21 DEG 15 MIN N
84 DEG 51 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2277 M
D. 75 KT
E. 138 DEG 70 NM
F. 224 DEG 139 KT
G. 133 DEG 018 NM
H. 910 MB
I. 14 C/ 3110 M
J. 18 C/ 3106 M
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C20
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF980 3109A IVAN OB 20
MAX FL WIND 150 KT NE QUAD 1916Z.
One more mb and Ivan breaks his own record....
For a bit this afternoon, it appeared that the strong convection on the north eyewall was waning. Recent IR shots show it to be building back in. Could he grow even stronger this evening? (This is getting to be a daily evening habit with Ivan).
--Lou
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:20 PM |
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Re: Latest Vortex...910mb!!!!
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Discussion finally out!
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200409.disc.html
Whew, Stewart is good! He answered every single question out there and then some. Genius, just genius.
| rickonboat |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:21 PM |
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Barometric pressure to 910
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If anyone wants to verify the monster we have out there...
Camille was a "hundred year storm".... pressure of 908
lowest recorded on Atlantic side...Gilbert... 888
we have a widow maker out there...
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:23 PM |
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Re: Barometric pressure to 910
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That discussion says it all...godspeed all!
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:26 PM |
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Re: Latest Vortex...910mb!!!!
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He's only teasing LIPhil and the magic 900mb range....
| GaryC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:27 PM |
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Re: Barometric pressure to 910
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Hopefully this will weaken more than forcast. I cant inagine a 5 hitting anywhere.
| kelcot |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:27 PM |
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Re: Latest Vortex...910mb!!!!
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anyway some one can post the spagetti links page- por favor
spaghetti
BTW, most of the info you are seeking can be found in Mike's title thread...just scroll down..
| ddrehman |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:28 PM |
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Re: Barometric pressure to 910
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Hello, I am new to all of this and I was wiondering if someone could explain what the discussion means in laymens terms. I live In Central Florida are we safe now? Thank you.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:28 PM |
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Re: Latest Vortex...910mb!!!!
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Stewart is a genius, and reminds me of a prior NHC legend-Dr. Neil Franks (I think?)
I also think this board had those issues covered well, as a number of us were seeing the synoptic scale pattern the same way, but a pro like him really teaches you something. Now, we have a road map of what to follow, and learn something while its happening.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:29 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards
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Right, Scott...that's what one of our local mets just said. The reason the forecast track hasn't shifted more east is because they are using the old ones.
He just said (this minute) that based on the info the recon planes are giving back, two of the models have the new "north" motion in it and they have shifted it to the right: the UKMET and the CMC. These are new runs, not the old ones.
He said this northward motion may just be a trend, but based on what his face is telling me, he doesn't believe it.
11pm will tell the tale.
| rickonboat |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:30 PM |
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Re: Barometric pressure to 910
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"Despite the large
eye of 25-30 nmi...the pressure has continued to fall. ...some
additional slight strengthening of 5 kt or so could occur later
tonight"...
wow!!!!
This is quite frightening, really. Pucker up time...
| kelcot |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:33 PM |
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Re: Latest Vortex...910mb!!!!
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thanks for the info, pal
Is it just me, or does Ivan seem to be defing (SP?) all of the rules for hurricanes?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:34 PM |
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Re: Barometric pressure to 910
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It was quite a funny running joke while it lasted...
now you better get outta the way!
Be safe...again...no way to take your boat out of the water...or is it safer to keep it in the bay and hope for the best?
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:34 PM |
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Re: Barometric pressure to 910
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dd, there is an upper level low which is not easily visible on most sat pics or surface maps that is directly responsible for shifting the track from the wnw to nnw. That low is moving away slowly, and as it does, will gradually lose its influence on Ivan, therefore, it should start to move NW again instead of NNW. There is another one coming though, and this SHOULD cause even more of a turn to the right. Also, in the Gulf, the upper level winds are from the west or southwest, so as it gains latitude, that will also bend its track back. That will also create some shear-stronger winds in a direction that can hurt the convection's organization, and that is why they expect it to weaken a little. As for forecasting where it should land, I don't want to do it, because I am afraid too much credence might be given to an amateur's view, and I don't want to scare anyone. If this were landfalling in another part of the country, maybe I'd be a little less reluctant to do so.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:38 PM |
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Re: Barometric pressure to 910
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colleen which met said that,,what channel?
| rickonboat |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:38 PM |
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Re: Barometric pressure to 910
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My boat is way to big to get out of the water...a friend of mine moved his up the river. I chose to stay...
He had 600' of extra line to tie to trees and also anchor..then he will abandon the boat and see what's left.
If a strong 4 or 5 hits our marina...it's quite likely nothing will be left. We are surrounded by huge oak trees...but the fact remains...the boat will likely be a total loss.
I will, of course, NOT be on it...
| kelcot |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:42 PM |
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Re: Barometric pressure to 910
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Rick- if Ivan maintains himself as a cat V at landfall, you will be able to drive your boat here to ATL to visit me......
I'm still calling a PCB landfall give or take 50 miles. However, based on the qualifiactions that I have for landfall, Mobile, Pascagoula, and Gulf Shores don't look to good either. Sorry, all.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:42 PM |
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Re: Barometric pressure to 910
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What we should watch out for in Central/west Florida is 1) the NW course resumes and 2) that as the shortwave moves off to the NE, that any ridging that replaces the exiting trough has enuf umph to steer it north and continue the 8 knt motion. Often the steering currents become weak when there is a handover from ridge/trough/ridge. We shall see, but the west coast of Florida does not want to see him slow or stall; just keep moving, and hopefully weaken considerably before landfall in the panhandle. Still without power in Palm Bay, day 9. Watching Ivan and Possible Jean. More fun.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:42 PM |
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Re: Barometric pressure to 910
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I was watching The Perfect Storm (for the 800th time) last night and I was actually picturing you trying to ride it out...
Glad you're taking the safe route! Peace.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:43 PM |
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Re: Barometric pressure to 910
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rick on a boat,
It was just a week or so ago that we were ragging on you for your trying to get Frances into the gulf.
I think you have the right attitude. Secure the boat as best you can and then hope for the best.
Sometimes boats fare better than you would think.
Good luck and stay safe.
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:44 PM |
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Tampa News Local Met
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Bay News 9 in Tampa just reported that there would be a major forecast track adjustment made at 11pm tonight. What in the world does that mean??
--Lou
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:48 PM |
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Re: Barometric pressure to 910
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Quote:
I was watching The Perfect Storm (for the 800th time) last night and I was actually picturing you trying to ride it out...
Glad you're taking the safe route! Peace.
Are you sure that wasn't "Forrest Gump" with the last shrimp boat left.......
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:49 PM |
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Re: Barometric pressure to 910
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anyone feel that new orleans is pretty much in the clear at this point?
best wishes going to anyone who is in the path
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:49 PM |
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Re: Tampa News Local Met
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One of two things:
(1) More West
(2) More East
If west, just how far west, and if further east, who does this put back into play?
Are we talking New Orleans? As a CAT IV...unimaginable death and destruction.
Are we talking Big Bend?
Was going to go to bed early tonight as I'm flat out exhausted, but now I have to stick around for the 11...maybe the intermediate outlook will bear new fruit.
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:50 PM |
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Re: Barometric pressure to 910
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cancun radar pic
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:51 PM |
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Re: Tampa News Local Met
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I will stay up till 11 to find out...........................we all need to do this.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:51 PM |
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Re: Barometric pressure to 910
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I was Really tempted to title the thread Ivan - East vs West, but TD#11 threw that out. 11's going to be interesting after Ivan too.
About the only thing I can suggest right now is to be careful staring at the satellite loops too long. And those along the coast should be prepared. Ivan has a lot of folks nervous around the Gulf.
| FunkyLamb |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:51 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards
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Hey everyone. New to the board.
I was just curious if anyone is monitoring the RAMSDIS loops. It seems to me in the last few frames that the storm is trying to make a jog to the west again. Can anyone confirm this or are my eyes giveng out?
PS...Great Forum!
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:52 PM |
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Re: Tampa News Local Met
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It WON"T be more west unless something dramatic and unexpected happens...
And I don't think it will be dramatically right either, although I think it will be a bit more to the right...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:53 PM |
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Re: Barometric pressure to 910
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Many of us have been in an extended tropical depression since Charley and no relief in site with all that disturbed weather in the Atlantic.
| rickonboat |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:53 PM |
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something else to consider
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cat 4 or 5...but look at the tremendous size of this storm...!
with an eyewall that large, and wind speeds of 160 +
People here at the dealership are quiet and making phone calls...making plans..
I remember Opal...a cat 5 close to Mobile..then veered toward Pensacola, and came in as a cat 2...
However, Opal developed in the Bay of Campeche..and wasn't the size and overall strong structure this storm is...
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:54 PM |
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Re: Tampa News Local Met
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my question would be "Whose track adjustment?"
If it is the NHC, they shouldn't say that. If it is theirs, why not say it now?
Jason made a very good point that was touched on in a model discussion I read earlier. All of the morning runs were run when he was moving wnw, not the nnw that he is moving now.
I would make one more point: yesterday, when I was detailing the upper level environment, and when I expected it to change, I had figured only on a nw movement, not nnw, and neither did anyone else that I read (discussion-wise). That shows me 2 things:
1. Even though this is a large cat 5, it CAN be turned
2. the models may have underestimated the strength of that ULL and maybe overestimated a shade the strength of the high steering it.
A couple more things to stuff into the already-overflowing memory bank.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:54 PM |
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Re: Tampa News Local Met
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Since you're on the inside...maybe you can ascertain this talk of track shift...
and welcome aboard funky sheep!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:55 PM |
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Re: Tampa News Local Met
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Quote:
Bay News 9 in Tampa just reported that there would be a major forecast track adjustment made at 11pm tonight. What in the world does that mean??
--Lou
What exactly does this mean? Who in their right mind would do reporting like this?
| St. David |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:55 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards
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it is moving slightly west now. its moving around 305 (nw)probably.
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:55 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards
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I see a little jog west - I'm pretty sure it's just Ivan doing his normal land-swerving move. After this, we'll see if Phil's Florida Straits solution will pan out.
As for TD 11, I agree that it is something to watch out for later on.
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/RSOMAIN.HTML
Good Point, the above 'solution' is just a little joke for anyone out there who doesn't know. Sorry for any confusion.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:57 PM |
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History??
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It is going to be a close call on whether an official landfall occurs on the tip of Cuba. I checked out all the past tracks back to 1886 at weatherunderground and could NOT find one cat. 5 to actually have its eye go over Cuba. That's 118 years. Hey LI Phil, the Red Sox have even won a few World Series since that time. I guess this storm is really history.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:57 PM |
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Re: Tampa News Local Met
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It saw the tip of Cuba,he hates land,but once it the gulf ?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 09:59 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards
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>>> After this, we'll see if Phil's Florida Straits solution will pan out
Shagg, scoob here. Just so as not to confuse or alarm anyone. The "Florida Strait's solution" is NOT an option. I opined last evening that since Ivan has danced around every piece of land so far, with the exception of the poor bastids on Grenada, once he cleared Coobah, he'd have to go east and south of the Keys to miss land again.
Never rely on anything I say...not that any of you do anyway
. This is an extremely serious situation, so listen to the NHC...Can we make Stacy write EVERY discussion...no offense to the others...but he is da bomb!
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 10:05 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards
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That trof in the Gulf is still quite sharp, and I figure is centered around 91 west, so I expect Ivan to continue just right of nw for a while longer. Also, the forecast track by the NHC the other day at this point was maybe 50 miles east of where it is. I think that was actually very close, and in a difficult situation as well. I have to tip my hat (when I am wearing one) to the NHC.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 10:07 PM |
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Re: Tampa News Local Met
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you ask.....Who in their right mind would do reporting like this?
it's called a "tease". Throwing out a line to recycle your viewers/listeners to a later time...and to create "buzz".
They accomplished their mission.
BubbaTB
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 10:10 PM |
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Re: Tampa News Local Met
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Quote:
Since you're on the inside...maybe you can ascertain this talk of track shift...
I think it was the hype machine in play, and totally irresponsible....but that is just my opinion...I don't beleive that it is based on fact, but some wild speculation.
| Cape Escape |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 10:12 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards
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New registered user!
I have a question for you all. Our vacation home is located on Cape San Blas and I have been reading that being on the east side of a hurricane is the worst place to be. With the size of Ivan, how many miles to the east of the eye would be in this dangerous part?
Thanks!
Love the board!
Worried for Cape San Blas 29.6N 85.2W
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 10:13 PM |
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Re: Tampa News Local Met
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I think they are just keeping people aware of whats going on in the gulf cause you never know what TS conditions might affect the coast. Right now I dont expect the track to change much if any at 11pm. Maybe slightly right but really still the same. Now again, a wobble NW or N or whatever happens from 6pm-11pm could really impact the oz models for the 5AM advisoury postion tracks.
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 10:17 PM |
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Re: Charley, Frances, Ivan
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Here's a link to a nice visual of the sizes between Charley, Frances, and Ivan. A little off, but pretty close to scale, and still a bit of meteorological eye candy.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/coolimages/FloridaTCcomp.gif
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 10:37 PM |
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Re: Charley, Frances, Ivan
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Definitely heading 305ish over the last two frames. Seems Ivan refuses to hit any island landmasses. Models initialized with positions when he jogged 330ish will be right-biased. I'm getting more and more convinced that this is a Mississippi-Alabama storm with some effects for SE LA and WFL. I guess if I had to make the call, I'd go with Long Beach-Biloxi as a strong Cat 3 or low-end Cat 4.
As noted on an earlier thread, Ivan should be the strongest storm to hit the Mississippi coast since Camille, though he shouldn't be in the same league at landfall - Wed late PM or Thurs late AM.
Steve
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 10:39 PM |
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Re: Charley, Frances, Ivan
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Point of order...there won't be any modelling initialized that way, because they haven't initialized the new runs yet....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 10:40 PM |
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Re: Tampa News Local Met
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Quote:
you ask.....Who in their right mind would do reporting like this?
it's called a "tease". Throwing out a line to recycle your viewers/listeners to a later time...and to create "buzz".
They accomplished their mission.
BubbaTB
Of course I realize their motive. It's just not the right circumstances to be doing this.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 10:44 PM |
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Re: Tampa News Local Met
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Thanks JK. I thought the 18z's would have been run around 1ish, but I guess that's when they put them out. Next 5-10 frames should be crucial in the long run. After further review, the last two jogs really appear to be around 295. Compared with the 4 near 330 and all the updates from today before 5 which were at 310, I'm thinking the storm is basically heading NW for now.
You guys take care in Panama City because you're gonna see some nasty weather, whether or not the eye landfalls nearby.
Steve
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 10:44 PM |
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Re: Tampa News Local Met
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jason
How much pressure is on an on air met from his new director to hype a storm like Ivan?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 10:47 PM |
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Re: Charley, Frances, Ivan
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dont worry steve... think ivan will get over his land phobia once he is in the gulf
hes done enough damage skirting land, imagine what he will do slamming into it?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 10:48 PM |
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Found this Interesting
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Because im bored at work and also because I find number patterns in almost everything, I noticed this. Probably been "disovered" before and if it has, I apologize for reposting. Anyhow, here goes:
Cat V Hurricanes to make landfall in the US:
1 - Labor Day Storm - 1935
2 - Hurricane Camille - 1969
3 - Hurricane Andrew - 1992
4 - (speculation not wishcasting) Hurricane Ivan - 2004
Number of years between 1 & 2: 34
Number of years between 2 & 3: 23
Number of years between 3 & 4: 12
See the pattern? Okay back to your regularly scheduled hurricane discussion (which you all are great at might I add!).
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 10:48 PM |
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Re: Tampa News Local Met
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Depends on the News Director....here at my shop, it is my call to make..my management give me the freedom to make the calls that I deem necessary, and back me up all the way doing it. It is a VERY nice situation for me, and I know of very few shops who give people that much latitiude.
I can't really speak to anywhere else, because I am not there, but I would surmise that in the larger TV markets, there is a bit more pressure.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 10:49 PM |
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Re: Tampa News Local Met
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Even up here, 1,500 miles away from Ivan...he's the number 1 story..
Does he even need hype?
You can cut the tension with a knife...we all gotta stay focused...at least until our eyeballs glaze over from looking at loops and getting loopy.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 10:49 PM |
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Re: Tampa News Local Met
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I heard Phillips and the met on Bay News 9 also talk about the turn north. It seems like the next move was a sharp left. I am not one tenth as smart as you guys about all of this tracking. I am just reading these posts to get some opinions about this storm so that I can be ready to get out of Pinellas County if I have to. Thanks to all of you.
| Mozart |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 10:56 PM |
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Re: Found this Interesting
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Quote:
Cat V Hurricanes to make landfall in the US:
1 - Labor Day Storm - 1935
2 - Hurricane Camille - 1969
3 - Hurricane Andrew - 1992
4 - (speculation not wishcasting) Hurricane Ivan - 2004
Number of years between 1 & 2: 34
Number of years between 2 & 3: 23
Number of years between 3 & 4: 12
See the pattern?
Going by your reasoning, that would mean another Cat 5 next year as well.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 10:57 PM |
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more central Florida track on crack
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Was it Bay News 9 or WFTV 9 in Orlando? I just heard they hyped a "major change at 11" too. These guys are on crack.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 10:58 PM |
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Re: Tampa News Local Met
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I'm with you! If they have important information about the storm, they should give it now. obviously, they do not really have that kind of information, so in the long run they hurt themselves with this when tonight at 11pm their viewers discover the hype.
Best wishes to all,
BubbaTB
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 10:59 PM |
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Re: Found this Interesting
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>>> Going by your reasoning, that would mean another Cat 5 next year as well.
Nothing gets by Amadeus! LOL!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 11:01 PM |
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Re: Tampa News Local Met
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Is it me or is it speeding up,and if it does speed up will that affect a more n,ne turn .
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 11:01 PM |
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Re: Tampa News Local Met
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Yea, the teases do little but turn me off as a viewer.
They seem to think the public is too stupid to figure out what they're doing.
I also hate when they get you to tune in only to save the big story until about 20 minutes into the newscast and then it's only about a 15 second blurb telling you absolutely nothing.
I find it's best just not to watch the local news except in times like these for the weather.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 11:04 PM |
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Re: Tampa News Local Met
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This tropical storm looks like it will keep us busy for the next week, along with that other storm that is forecasted by the models to form off the coast of Africa. I can't believe that Florida could be hit with another tropical system, this is un-heard of.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 11:04 PM |
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Re: Found this Interesting
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Quote:not reasoning by FAR! I'm in the slow part of my day so I have nothing else to think about right now. Well except for the whole stock up on batteries and flashlights in Atlanta thing.
Going by your reasoning, that would mean another Cat 5 next year as well.
Alas I just found the pattern interesting and thought I'd share. Let Ivan make my finding look stupid by making landfall as a Cat II or less (wishcasting here).
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 11:05 PM |
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Re: Tampa News Local Met
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That was also hyped up on 28 out of Tampa,Fl. Saying there would be a change at 11:00 P.M.
| CentralFlorida |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 11:07 PM |
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Re: Tampa News Local Met
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BayNews9 Tampa said that because or the northerly jump earlier (a little earlier than projected) that the track should change a bit. Final words were waiting till the 11pm update from the NHC
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 11:09 PM |
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Re: Tampa News Local Met
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I think the NHC should have their own channel during hurricane center,with live updates.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 11:09 PM |
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Re: Tampa News Local Met
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Jason, keep up your good work up there without all of the theatrics.
I've seen you a number of times when I am up in PC on business. Always like your work.Jim
| St. David |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 11:09 PM |
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Re: Tampa News Local Met
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The Mayor of new orleans has just asked everyone to leave! WOW
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 11:10 PM |
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Re: Tampa News Local Met
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sorry huuricane season
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 11:11 PM |
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Re: Tampa News Local Met
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Boy Ivan I can not spell
| Thunder |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 11:12 PM |
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Re: Tampa News Local Met
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Quote:
This tropical storm looks like it will keep us busy for the next week, along with that other storm that is forecasted by the models to form off the coast of Africa. I can't believe that Florida could be hit with another tropical system, this is un-heard of.
It's.... EL NINO ....or...THE NINO.'
That is one funny SNL bit!
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 11:13 PM |
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Re: Tampa News Local Met
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>>> The Mayor of new orleans has just asked everyone to leave!
Is that TRUE? I can't imagine it would be anything but voluntary evac and only for those in the most sensitive areas...OK, that would be the entire city, but NO is barely in the cone...
Maybe he just wants some down time...
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 11:14 PM |
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Re: Tampa News Local Met
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Brilliant - Chris Farley
Sorry, couldn't resist.
Interested in seeing the video? Go to the "Other Weather Events" If it's not the number 1 topic, the title is "Excellent Discussion on El Nino" Cheers!
Back to Ivan though, the latest vortex is up to 915 MB
| FlaRebel |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 11:15 PM |
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Re: more central Florida track on crack
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So I guess they are alluding to a more EASTERLY track???? Is that right??
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 11:15 PM |
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Re: Tampa News Local Met
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No watches yet,remember George,they did the same thing,
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 11:16 PM |
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Re: Tampa News Local Met
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Just checked wwltv.com, NoLa evac is voluntary so far..
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 11:16 PM |
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Re: Tampa News Local Met
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The channel 28 weather forecaster in Tampa,Fl. said the info of the (north north westerly turn) had not been fed into the computers as of the forecast tract at 6:00 p.m. So come back at 11:00p.m
| St. David |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 11:17 PM |
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Re: Tampa News Local Met
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it is voluntary right now. he said that all the information he has the high would have to break down in a timely manner for the storm to turn more east and he doesn't beleive it will in that time frame. he beleive that conditions will have to be perfect for this to happen and he wants everyone to be safe so thats why he is asking everyone to evc. now. He said it may not hit directly on new orleans but it will be close enough to have a major inpact.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 11:23 PM |
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Re: more central Florida track on crack
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Can't tell. Would not be surpised if they are hyping a big western move of the track, either.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 11:24 PM |
Re: Tampa News Local Met
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maybe we should all goes by what the mayor feels.
| St. David |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 11:25 PM |
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Re: Tampa News Local Met
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just passing along infomation!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 11:29 PM |
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Re: Tampa News Local Met
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NO is worse case,I guess he figures safe than sorry!!
| CentralFlorida |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 11:29 PM |
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Re: Tampa News Local Met
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outflow on NW side of Ivan looks like its collapsing like last night
| belleami |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 11:31 PM |
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Cape San Blas AND St George Island
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I have been reading, also <lucky me> watching Jason's forecasts.
Question:
St george Island, about what- 170 miles east of Pensacola (?) 70 mi. east of PC so we are getting ready. This is a skinny barrier island; we will most likely be evacuating... but
If Ivan does make landfall in the west-panhandle area, what kind of effects would St George Island feel? Would we even have any major/medium effects here?
PS- We reserved a room in Dothan!
Thanks for any replies/thoughts/opinions.
Susie
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 11:31 PM |
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Re: more central Florida track on crack
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What is everything coming to ,if this is true about the weather forecasters saying come back at 11:00 p.m. there will be a big change in the forecast ,We'll if they need a draw that much to make a false statement like that then --we'll i just dont know!
I'm like most everyone else Jason shoots from the hip!!!
As long as iv'e been on this site ,he's been very straight forward and tell's things based on facts!!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 11:31 PM |
Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards
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hello MikeC again..i never did hear back from you the last time.
(Post Partially removed...in case you haven't noticed Mike is busy keeping the site UP. We're going to go to lockdown mode...possibly sooner than later)
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 11:32 PM |
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Re: Tampa News Local Met
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I used to watch SNL, I know someone from their band. I usually watch MAD tv but enough about me. Man Ivan keeps on it's NW course not changing. I am concerned about the flood from this storm, it should be called Ivan the Flood. The way the models are predicting it, that Ketucky area could get about to 20 inches of rain on that rain filled soil and the whole eastern seaboard gets loaded with rain.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 11:32 PM |
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Re: Tampa News Local Met
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the trof is still impacting it, and that may also be why the pressure rose a bit, even though fluctuations are to be expected.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 11:34 PM |
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Re: more central Florida track on crack
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It amazes me how the eye misses land!!!
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 11:37 PM |
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But....
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Unless there is divine intervention, that was the last land near-miss for Ivan...
| mlamay |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 11:37 PM |
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Re: more central Florida track on crack
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watching TWC and they are predicting a N/NNE turn forcasting landfall near PC
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 11:37 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards
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Email me mike@flhurricane.com -- with site issues there is a good chance I missed it. Could get ahold of you in Tampa too.
| Elaine H |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 11:41 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards
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I guess not everyone can make a vaulable contribution to the site. Thanks to all that do.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 11:41 PM |
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Re: Barometric pressure to 910
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Get your boat up in a canal or bayou somewhere. Yes, it's a large boat but if you can get it tied off on four corners you might have a chance at getting it to ride out the storm. We used to do this in the area I lived in. As long as everyone tied their boats securely; all were OK. I agree, get it out of the marina - you can't trust everyone to secure theirs and that will destroy yours.
God speed, my friend.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 11:43 PM |
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Re: But....
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Maybe large storms like to avoid land because the frictional effects are stronger? your thoughts.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 11:43 PM |
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Re: But....
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Jason i do not know the exact landfall,but I think Pcb is in for a hell of a ride,hopefully it dies some,but I love the Gulfcoast from gulfshoes east,this storm can do a alot of damage,but the coast always seems to rebuild,
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 11:46 PM |
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Re: Latest Vortex...910mb!!!!
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I notice the recon planes are still reporting lighting in the eyewall. This morning's discussion noted that lightening and hail have been reported and that this is unusual in a hurricane of this size. Can you explain why that is? Is it more common in smaller storms ?
| tikibar |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 11:50 PM |
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Ivan the bear
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Take an image of Ivan and super-impose it, centered, over the GOM.
WOW!
That's BIG!I quit watching loops yesterday when one did a little dance like a cat food "chow-chow-chow" commercial.
I thought I was losing it!
(glad someone else seen that too)
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 11:54 PM |
| Attachment |
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NHC 5 Day Forecast Error
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Ok.....I just spent some time looking at all the past Ivan advisories. I was curious to see how far off the NHC has been on their five day forecast. I began with the first advisory on September 2. The initial 5 day forecast location predicted Ivan to be at 14.0N, 60.0W at 2pm on Sept 7. I then compared that to the actual place Ivan was on 9/7 at 2pm (11.9N, 61.2W). I did this for each succeeding day, comparing the 2pm forecast and actual locations. I drew up a map comparing the actual path of Ivan to the NHC five-day forecast plots. The attachment link above is my crude hand-drawn map....but you still get the idea. The red line is Ivan's actual track. The black line is the interconnected 5-day forecast plots. As we already knew, the NHC 5 day forecast has been skewed way north of where Ivan actually tracked (sometimes over 200 miles off). Initially, the hurricane was moving faster than projected....but in the past 3 days, the NHC projection has outpaced Ivan. The intensity forecast was awful as well. The hurricane center vastly underestimated the strength of Ivan from the start. Each five day forecast was off by a minimum of 20 knots and as much as 65 knots underestimated.
So, while I whole-heartedly agree that the guys and gals at the NHC do an outstanding job, they have been truly at a loss when it came to predicting Ivan's course or intensity.
--Lou
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Sep 13 2004 11:56 PM |
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Odd Eye(s)?
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Is it just me, or does it look like there are two overlapping eyes? I don't see it on other satellites, but it looks pretty strange on this view.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
---Changed eyewalls to eyes---
| Lisa NC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:00 AM |
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Re: Ivan the bear
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when watching the loops, and they do the "chow,chow chow" thing. Look at the time stamps, you can click on the little green boxes at the top to skip them, that go back in time. That makes it easier to watch
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:00 AM |
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Re: Odd Eyewall(s)?
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looks like a fig 8.
| captgene |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:01 AM |
Re: Latest Vortex...910mb!!!!
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rare the word , i do not agree with common forecast , cold front from north west will put land fall near tampa as i see it , hope i'm wrong and ivan dies , but i don't think so. Folkes don't realize if ivan hits a Budweiser brewery, then what?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:03 AM |
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Re: Odd Eyewall(s)?
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I had heard from some news that Frances would be a storm to be studied for a long time, Ivan, too. It amazes me about the island dodging. Almost like he is waiting for the right "prey".
| BabyCat |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:04 AM |
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Re: Odd Eyewall(s)?
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or a bully
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:05 AM |
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Re: Odd Eyewall(s)?
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Ivan is the bully
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:06 AM |
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Re: Latest Vortex...910mb!!!!
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Quote:
Folkes don't realize if ivan hits a Budweiser brewery, then what?
I did not think there was one in Tampa anymore. I know it is not in Busch Gardens.
Back OT. I see nothing to cause a wild swing. I do get the feeling that shear might beat the heck out of Ivan. Would not be surprised to see him as low as a low cat 2 at landfall.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:07 AM |
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Re: NHC 5 Day Forecast Error
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200 mile errors out 5 days is actually very good. 20 years ago, errors were actually larger than that in only 3 days. I think if I did a plot of 48 hour projections, they haven't been that far off. The other day I looked at where they expected it when near Cuba, and they had it just inland. I think it passed about 50 miles west of that point today. Time-wise, I wasn't checking, I was just looking at location.
I made a reference in an earlier post that they used to put at the end of their 3 day forecasts back then "errors may exceed several hundred miles". I guess it is all relative, and perception.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:08 AM |
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Re: Odd Eyewall(s)?
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Too strange how Ivan has side stepped land on his journey.
But unfortunately, Ivan has come close enough to spread death and destruction. You don't need a direct hit by the eye to be devistated by a storm.
In Daytona Beach, Fla, they were 150 miles from where the eye crossed the onto land and still experience a lot of torn off roofs and some beyond repair.
| captgene |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:11 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-ir4-loop.html refresh it
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:12 AM |
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Re: Odd Eye(s)?
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More than likely going through another ERC (eyewall replacement cycle) Ivan has been doing that fairly regularly. These big storms don't stay constant, they flucuate in intesity, and the eye does some strange things sometimes.
Bill
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:14 AM |
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Re: Odd Eye(s)?
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I never notice the ERC with supertyphoons, they just seem to get stronger and stronger, though we will never know
| kelcot |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:15 AM |
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Re: Odd Eyewall(s)?
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Not just in Daytona Beach............
My cousin's roof actually got lifted off and put back down at a wierd angle, my uncle's house had a tree fall on it, his cabinet store in the mall was ruined when the roof of dillards collapsed (letting in a torrential down pour then setting off the fire sprinklers), my mom had a 20yr old palm take out her fence and there is a hole the size of a basketball in her roof.
| BabyCat |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:16 AM |
|
Re: Odd Eye(s)?
|
anyone notice the pressure increased a tad?
Maybe it is a replacment cycle...
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:18 AM |
|
|
Sustaining Cat 5?
|
I'm sure I read somewhere that Cat 5 storms generally lose their Cat 5 status and don't maintain it for days on end. Is Ivan really that unique in this or have the ERCs been rapid enough to keep the inensity high?
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:19 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Odd Eyewall(s)?
|
Well, Ivan has now entered the Gulf of Mexico.
I can't say that he's a welcomed guest.
Where will you go Ivan?
| captgene |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:22 AM |
|
Re: Odd Eyewall(s)?
|
look the forecaster get live info that tax payers paid for but they pay a small amount to get it first , not right way to go , cost lives and money, but easy to call the game after you know the end score.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:22 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Sustaining Cat 5?
|
keith234...
glad mike was able to change your handle.
I'm pretty certain ERC's take place in ALL strong cyclones. We probably don't have access (or there isn't the technology) to give us great WV loops and the like where we can see it happen. There's no reason a super-t in the pac would behave any differently from a Major-c in the atl...
Please correct me if I'm wrong...
Also...I sure hope those calling for a CAT II at landfall are right, but I don't see ANYTHING out there to stop at least a strong III/weak IV...depending on the conditions, why not a V?
I sure hope not, but I don't think Ivan cares about whatever shear may be there...he's doing what he pleases and that's that.
| kelcot |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:25 AM |
|
Re: Sustaining Cat 5?
|
the more I think about it, I think they messed up when they decided what names to call the storms. Ivan should be a woman. He's b*&$hier than I am.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:26 AM |
|
Re: Sustaining Cat 5?
|
Looks more wnw in the last few frames?
| belleami |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:26 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Sustaining Cat 5?
|
If the Cat changes to a 3 or 4, do the wind fields shrink?
Like right now, hurricane force winds extend to 100 mi. mol; so if it's a Cat 3 at landfall, how far do hurricane winds extend? Is there a formula?
Thax. Susie
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:27 AM |
|
|
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Re: Sustaining Cat 5?
|
I feel like a new person! Anyhow, Ivan is doing a similiar track to Camille, I hope not but this could make landfall as a strong CAT 4 and just maybe a borderline CAT 5. The Gulf Shores are known for these big hurricanes, why won't this one be another one?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:30 AM |
|
Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards
|
I live in P-cola and I know we are the middle line of this track. Even on fox news they show it going right over pensacola, but yet they send thier guys to NO which is on the very edge to milk out a story about the city sinking. GET REAL THE STORM ISNT HEADING TO NO. EVEN THOUGH I WISH IT WAS AND I KNOW FOX NEWS WISH IT WOULD FOR A BIGGER STORY BUT, ITS NOT ITS HEADING AROUND THE PENSACOLA AREA MOBILE THE FARTHEST WEST AND FT.WALTON THE FARTHES EAST. What is so hard to understand why they freak people out in places like NO. just for a story why us in pensacola just get left in te dark, with a false since of security....
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:31 AM |
|
Folks....a personal request....
|
I need to ask a personal favor from all of my friends on here. I have shared this the Mods, but I want you all to know this, and to help me out if possible.
My wife is in her 38th week of pregnancy with our 3rd child. We are taking our other two kids north to stay with their grandparents tomorrow, but her doctor has advised her not to travel, so she will be staying in a hotel next door to the local hospital. Compounding the problem is that the bridges here close at 55 mph sustained winds, so once it gets going, I am isolated from her and can't get to her if she begins going into labor.
I don't want to take this topic off onto a religious tangent, but if you are a religious person (which I am) I would ask for your prayers for me and my family at this time...if you are non-religious, then if you would keep us in your thoughts, I and my family would appreciate it.
Mods, sorry if this is too off-topic...feel free to delete if you feel it is necessary.
Thank you all in advance.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:34 AM |
|
Re: Sustaining Cat 5?
|
Here are models from the TPC showing inland wind fields broken down by Cat strength and forward speed for both Gulf Coast and Atlantic Coast hits. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutmeow.shtml
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:34 AM |
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Re: Folks....a personal request....
|
Hopefully the hurricane will miss you, you will be in my prayers. Good luck.
| belleami |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:34 AM |
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|
|
Re: Folks....a personal request....
|
You got if Jason! Sending heart-felt prayers your way!
Susie
| StormHound |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:35 AM |
|
Re: Sustaining Cat 5?
|
Quote:
If the Cat changes to a 3 or 4, do the wind fields shrink?
Like right now, hurricane force winds extend to 100 mi. mol; so if it's a Cat 3 at landfall, how far do hurricane winds extend? Is there a formula?
Thax. Susie
Generally, they will expand, at least for a while. Energy cannot be created or destroyed. If the winds in the center decrease, that extra energy has to go somewhere, so the wind fields often expand. Frances did this. This is often compared to an ice skater who brings his/her arms in to spin faster, spreads them out to slow down.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:36 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Folks....a personal request....
|
My prayers are with you and your wife, Jason. I think having her next to the hospital is a very good idea. Considering the stage she is at, a hurricane induced birth is not out of the question. Good luck to both of you on that.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:36 AM |
|
Re: Sustaining Cat 5?
|
Yeah, I some what agree on the WNW wobble/jog... what, the NHC said he should begin a more northwesterly track in the 5 pm advisory..
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. HOWEVER... A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
Looks like later tonight might be now... obviously we need some more time and pixs to confirm... might be just a temporary jog as he's confirmed a dislike for land since Grenada... for the record my concern is longitude 89, if Ivan can't reach 89 degrees longitude then I feel the BIloxi area should be relatively OK, provided the NNE to NE turn as he approaches landfall plays out... time will tell
hmmmm, next pix, back to the north....
Jason, you have our prayers.... heck, my wife has a direct line to the Lord she's so religious.....
| KC |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:37 AM |
|
Re: Folks....a personal request....
|
Jason - I have learned a lot reading your posts the last few days. Consider it done - prayers coming your way from Naples, Florida! I should say extra prayers because I've been sending them for everyone in Ivan's path.
Karen
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:38 AM |
|
Re: Folks....a personal request....
|
Jason, you don't know me, I'm just a lurker here w/no idea about weather stuff at all. I am a vet of both Charlie and Frances ( I live in Seminole County). I wish you the best and although I'm not "religous", I will say a prayer for you and your family. Take care.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:38 AM |
|
Re:one more thing"?????
|
If any buddy can answer this for me. Im very confused I look at alot of stites like this one and they have the track right at us in P-cola, but yet the probabilty chart says the center is more likey to go near the ms/al border than p-cola why is that???????And which track is more accurate the one from NHC or the weather channel or even accuweather thanks for responding>>
| kirdona |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:39 AM |
|
Re: Folks....a personal request....
|
Jason, may God be with you all. I can't imagine what a stressful time this must be for your family.
| kelcot |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:39 AM |
|
Re: Folks....a personal request....
|
Jason-
1. You and your family will be in my prayers.
2. If the doctors don't want her to travel (which makes sence) but there is a possible cat IV-V hurricane coming, why doesn't her doctor check her into the hospital? I think you should explain your situation to him and I think he'll change his mind. Besides, how is a woman in labor expected to walk anywhere let alone in 150+ winds?
If it's a boy, are you going to name him Ivan?
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:39 AM |
|
Re: Sustaining Cat 5?
|
Not necessarily. The windfield size does not have a direct connection to wind speed. Take Andrew as an example, very small storm with a tight windfield, but landfalling as a cat5. Frances had a huge windfield but was not a major hurricane at landfall. Ivan has a huge windfield, and chances are that even if he loses strength down to a 2 or 3, the windfield will stay fairly large, it might shrink some, but we won't know that until about landfall unfortunately.
Bill
| tikibar |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:40 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Folks....a personal request....
|
consider it done!
keep the faith, brother!
I got an inside line to the "big" man upstairs
| sullynole |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:40 AM |
|
|
Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards
|
Quote:
I live in P-cola and I know we are the middle line of this track. Even on fox news they show it going right over pensacola, but yet they send thier guys to NO which is on the very edge to milk out a story about the city sinking. GET REAL THE STORM ISNT HEADING TO NO. EVEN THOUGH I WISH IT WAS AND I KNOW FOX NEWS WISH IT WOULD FOR A BIGGER STORY BUT, ITS NOT ITS HEADING AROUND THE PENSACOLA AREA MOBILE THE FARTHEST WEST AND FT.WALTON THE FARTHES EAST. What is so hard to understand why they freak people out in places like NO. just for a story why us in pensacola just get left in te dark, with a false since of security....
although the media does often blow things out of proportion (i.e Tampa and west coast)... don't focus only on the center of this track.
| Kent |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:40 AM |
|
Re: Folks....a personal request....
|
She is being lifted up as I write this Jason. Many prayers from Ft. Lauderdale and Calvary Chapel.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:40 AM |
|
Re: Sustaining Cat 5?
|
Do you believe Frank that P-cola is directly in the path or is it farther west??
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:41 AM |
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|
|
Re: Folks....a personal request....
|
Jason,
What're you kidding me?
Edit THAT post?
Jesus (sorry) I've got tears in my eyes...I told you this in a PM but I'll reiterate it here...godspeed!
I'm not a religious man, but Ivan is making me rethink my position on that...you be safe!!!
Someone is going to feel a whole world of hurt...only problem is wishing it somewhere else only moves that hurt somewhere else...too bad my Fl Straits theory can't happen...
I'm sure there about a million or more who have to make life and death decisions in the next 24 hours...they may as well have the whole cone under evac orders.
My heart goes out to each and everyone of you. Wish there was something I could do from up here...I'm really hurting for the bucks ATTM, but whoever needs whatever I can send, let me know...
hoofah
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:41 AM |
|
Re: Sustaining Cat 5?
|
Prayers are on the way along with prayers for my family in Lynn Haven that have flooded twice....I have been hoping for A Pensacola landfall as I can weather this better than they..
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:42 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Sustaining Cat 5?
|
Isn't that a physics principle of mass conservation?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:44 AM |
|
Prayers are with you Jason
|
I don't see a WNW jog that you all do. In fact I see more of a north motion now.
| Allison |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:44 AM |
|
|
Re: Sustaining Cat 5?
|
Quote:
Also...I sure hope those calling for a CAT II at landfall are right, but I don't see ANYTHING out there to stop at least a strong III/weak IV...depending on the conditions, why not a V?
The WV loop shows a ton of dry air sitting over LA and extending to the GOM... hopefully this will help to weaken Ivan some prior to landfall...
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html
(it actually shows up better on the RAMSDIS loop, but I haven't figured out how to link to it....
)Allison
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:46 AM |
|
Re: Folks....a personal request....
|
Kel...
Her OB is a golfing buddy...if needs be I can get her admitted.
It is a girl, and her name will be Virginia Grace (Jenna)...we aren't changing to Ivana....lol
Thanks for all the well wishes...now let's get back on topic!!!
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:50 AM |
|
Re: Prayers are with you Jason
|
phew, I thought it was me. I tried getting different shots, and the last one I had did have that N jog.
| FunkyLamb |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:51 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Sustaining Cat 5?
|
New Orleans Update...
All Orleans, Jefferson, St. Bernard, St. Tammany and Plaquemines Parish public schools are CLOSED. All Archdiocese schools are CLOSED. Loyola University and UNO are closed.
As was said earlier in the thread, Mayor Nagin has basically given a voluntary evacuation.
I-55 between 1-10 and I-12 heading south has been closed in anticipation of evacuation traffic.
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:51 AM |
|
Re: Sustaining Cat 5?
|
I read that as "a psychic principle of mass conversion"..
Made for a confused moment. Comes from being somewhat dyslexic...
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:53 AM |
|
Re: Sustaining Cat 5?
|
My personal opinion is that regardless if Ivan goes a little to the east or west of Pensacola, the area is in for a pounding.... you are right in the middle of the cone of probability... something really weird would have to happen for Pensacola not the get some significant weather from Ivan.... it would be much better for you if it were to hit on the east side, but if it does hit on your west, say Mobile, Pensacola will be pummeled... big time... providing of course it's intensity is still in the Cat3/4 range....
yeah, Pensacola right now looks like its in for a very rough time...things can change ... stay tuned...
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:53 AM |
|
Re: Folks....a personal request....
|
Best and prayers from me as well Jason.
Away for a bit all. Hopefully it won't crash.
| clyde w. |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:54 AM |
|
Re: Folks....a personal request....
|
Jason--
I don't have a lot of pull with the big guy, but you have my prayers tonight as well.
Kindness repaid likewise--if there is a such thing as karma I know you and your wife will be just fine, because He wouldn't let anything happen to someone who gives so much to weather enthusiasts without asking anything in return. Good luck in the next few days to you--and everyone in the path of this beast.
| tikibar |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:55 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Folks....a personal request....
|
Quote:
It is a girl, and her name will be Virginia Grace (Jenna)...we aren't changing to Ivana....lol
hmmm... sounds like a princess
good thing!
As I recall, Ivana was the name of a big luxury yacht bouncing off things in Palm Beach during Frances!
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 01:14 AM |
|
landfall?
|
Ok, with this last N wobble, can I claim my "west Cuba landfall by EW" prediction? Or am I 50 feet short?
Just think what it's like on that bit of land right now...
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 01:15 AM |
|
Re: Sustaining Cat 5?
|
Quote:
New Orleans Update...
All Orleans, Jefferson, St. Bernard, St. Tammany and Plaquemines Parish public schools are CLOSED. All Archdiocese schools are CLOSED. Loyola University and UNO are closed.
As was said earlier in the thread, Mayor Nagin has basically given a voluntary evacuation.
I-55 between 1-10 and I-12 heading south has been closed in anticipation of evacuation traffic.
Of course that means my son has no school and I still have work, as I teach at a University a little more northern..... Actually, I don't want our school to close. I am giving an exam in my night class tomorrow.
Looking at the nice area high pressure over Louisiana, it seems like a waste... but, I guess tis better to be safe....
Great.... just saw that St. Tammany off-campus classes at SLU are cancelled for tomorrow. So much for that exam.....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 01:16 AM |
|
By the way...
|
I WAS WRONG!!!!
I admit I was totally off on my prediction with the trof and its effects on Ivan. It's a good thing I don't do it for a living because I'd be fired on my first day...lol
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 01:21 AM |
|
|
|
Re: By the way...
|
Mike must be back on line because not five minutes after he went off...down we went...
Shawn...that's the spirit! I say that (sometime on line, sometimes off) every day!
I've been wrong about this one since day 1, but I think I did actually nail the no coobah landfall...maybe.
40 minutes and counting...
| dmusc |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 01:24 AM |
|
Re: Hurricane Ivan About to Enter the Gulf of Mexico, TD#11 Forms East of Leewards
|
I have been folllowing the models since the beginning of Ivan. I live in the Jacksonville FL area. I get alot of information from the Accuweather Pro site and Joe Bastardi. Does anyone have information on the latest FSU Superensemble model run? I know it is proprietary and password protected online. The NHC discussions have not mentioned it in any of the latest discussions, although they did early on. I'm hoping this is not the wrong place to put this question.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 01:26 AM |
|
OOZ GFDL now hitting Biloxi, no really, I promise, see for yourself
|
looks like a good initialization on it too... these models are starting to piss me off.... I would be very happy if they all point to the panhandle, nothing personal you floridians... but I'm getting tired of these models pointing at me..... go figure... here's the link for all of you bored enough right now to review....
If you plot it, they will come..... need to get Kevin Costner to play the part of the NHC forecaster
GOM, the graveyard of busted forecasts... will this be another to add to the list...
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_09.gif
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 01:28 AM |
|
|
Re: By the way...
|
http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200409_model.gif
Okay I'm tired of the west shift but now it looks like most of the models are pointing at Mobile bay
Time to get back to boarding up and picking up stuff. Have a good night everyone James N Mobile AL
| Kent |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 01:30 AM |
|
Re: Folks....a personal request....
|
Jason,
I am an RN and I just wanted to point out that when a hurricane comes into our area (or any I believe) they tell all women in their last month of pregnancy to come to the hospital before the storm. They are admitted and put wherever they have room. I was a nursing student during Andrew. I still remember laughing as I walked through the medical surgical unit. All I saw as I passed each room were these big bumps in the middle of all the beds. The sad thing however is that husbands can not accompany their wives to the unit during the storm, unless they are actually in labor at the time. She should be just fine, a little lonely maybe, but safe. Course you may have some pull there.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 01:31 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Sustaining Cat 5?
|
When I was very young people thought I was dyslexic but I just like writing backwards for fun, gave me a challenge. Hope you can read this, just kidding I know what it's like.
| tikibar |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 01:31 AM |
|
|
|
Re: OOZ GFDL now hitting Biloxi, no really, I promise, see for yourself
|
Huh!
Don't feel so persecuted!
The early NOGAPS had a path all the way through Milwaukee!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 01:31 AM |
|
Re: By the way...
|
I live in Florida but I still am hoping it don't hit Mobile or other locales like that...............would be disastrous with that body of water as would NO or Tampa Bay.................
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 01:33 AM |
|
Re: By the way...
|
The tropical model suite is run off of the GFS ,,,so when you see the 18z run of the GFS,,the tropical model suites such as the Bamm, Bamd,AOE, and LBAR will have the same general path to some degree. In another words....after the GFS oz run comes out tonight,, you will see the tropical model suite runs around 2am and it will say 6z.'
On a side note,,,,,you can start to see the center of Ivan on long range Key west radar.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 01:33 AM |
|
|
|
Rule & Jason
|
Rule: If I had to do a chain measurement, you'd get the 1st down.
Jason...I have you, your wife, and all 3 of your children in my prayers. God takes care of those in need...believe me, I know. At this point, I am already praying for just about everyone in the universe. With a few obvious exceptions.
I don't see a wnw movement, I see a more NNW/N movement in the last loops. I hate Ivan.
The 11pm track will be interesting, to say the least.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 01:36 AM |
|
|
Re: By the way...
|
I think some of those are the older model runs.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 01:36 AM |
|
Re: OOZ GFDL now hitting Biloxi, no really, I promise, see for yourself
|
I here George Bush is tired of visiting Florida!!!
| BabyCat |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 01:37 AM |
|
Re: Sustaining Cat 5?
|
Quote:
I read that as "a psychic principle of mass conversion"..
I think that applies too
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 01:38 AM |
|
The good news about the recent model runs
|
Actually this is good news for MS and AL.... when the models shift west the NHC shifts their forecast track to the east.... they are always on the right side of the models for Ivan's track... so I expect that at 11 the track will shift another 25 miles east of PC..... we now have 4 tropical models to the west of the forecast track, and 1 east.... I do not count the 5th model to the west of the forecast track, A98E, as it looks to be under the influence of some serious drugs or perhaps alcohol and otherwise known as .... MWI, modeling while intoxicated....
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 01:40 AM |
|
Re: Rule & Jason
|
I think the track will roughly be the same Colleen.......the 18z runs show the same thing, but they initialized off the movement at 2pm. So when the NHC does theyre track they will use the 18z run but not the 0z run cause they (all) wont be done yet and they need to get that out to the public. Now lets see the oz runs so that we can see if the NHC update the track in the 5am update and discussion. Now there might be a slight shift,, and if anything to the right since its been more less close to NNW so they will acknowledge that, but unless it turns due north or jog NNE during a 3-6 hour time frame, they will adjust it slightly.
| tikibar |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 01:40 AM |
|
|
|
Re: The good news about the recent model runs
|
The 98E is always acting like some unruly child, off getting into something!!!!
| clyde w. |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 01:43 AM |
|
Re: Rule & Jason
|
For anyone into really off the wall stuff from TV--they had the Dyno guy on MSNBC tonight with his magic powder. Apparently, about the same amount of that stuff that it would take to wash your clothes can dry up a small bowl of water (insert oohs and ahhs here). How much would it take to dry up a hurricane?? Yeah, that's what I thought. Anyway, he stated that they will not be flying into Ivan as was earlier stated on a previous thread.
Also from MSNBC, apparently Castro and 8 accompanying amphibious tanks moved to the far western tip of Cuba to 'experience' the hurricane. For once, I almost wouldn't mind seeing a Cat 5 hit land. Too bad there are innocents there too...
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 01:44 AM |
|
Re: Rule & Jason
|
btw the oz run of the GFDL is not out yet,,at least to the public. Even though it says 2334z its a late run of the 18z. Its a flaw in the time.
| lilyv |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 01:44 AM |
|
Re: Folks....a personal request....
|
Jason,
I will keep your family in my prayers.
All the best you,
lilyv
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 01:45 AM |
|
|
Re: The good news about the recent model runs
|
Quote:
MWI, modeling while intoxicated....
Hey, I've been known to do that on occasions...fughedaboutit...it's a stressful job.
I am STILL seeing the NNW/N movement. I'm on the other side of you...I think the further north it goes, the higher the probability that Mexico will be in the track.
Which, of course, is dictated by the models.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 01:45 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Rule & Jason
|
Maybe Castro will want to go on a warship to experience it...
That would kill 2 birds with one stone, no?
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 01:50 AM |
|
Re: Rule & Jason
|
Castro hates south florida soo much Im sure he had scientists develop something to try to get up into the storm and drive it ENE after Cuba towards Miami,,.,,,thing would be funny if it back fired and kept turning then se into Havana.
| clyde w. |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 01:51 AM |
|
Re: Rule & Jason
|
LI Phil--we could only hope...
Colleen --ROFLOL!!
Unfortunately I'm on a connection so slow that I'm still trying to load a loop of Charley!
Seriously, tonight's turn to the NW is really the final piece of the puzzle as to final landfall. If it happens, then a western landfall is more likely. If not, then you have to go with the FL panhandle (ooh! the loop just loaded!). Still looks NNW to me, so PCB is looking more likely, maybe just a hair west of there.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 01:51 AM |
|
Re: The good news about the recent model runs
|
Colleen, I'm getting to the point that I'd like to perhaps drink a little dynogel, just wash the model blues away.... boy, have they been frustrating me with our bad boy Ivan...
maybe I have PWI and don't know it... Posting while intoxicated...
he keeps going north and it going to save me a bunch of work.... go north old man Ivan
| Elaine H |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 01:51 AM |
|
Re: Rule & Jason
|
Castro in a convertible would be fine...if anyone gets that..they will be showing their age...like me
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 01:52 AM |
|
Re: Rule & Jason
|
Sounds like the MSNBC guys were drinking the Dynogel...
There seems to be a nice lighthouse at the point of land, but experiencing a C5 at night... would just be noisy.
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 01:53 AM |
|
Re: The good news about the recent model runs
|
colleen last ghs sat. pics show due north.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 01:53 AM |
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Re: Rule & Jason
|
I thought Fidel Castro was dead, wasn't he like 40 when that bay of pigs event occured? My Social Studies stinks.
| Daytonaman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 01:56 AM |
|
|
Re: Hurricane Winds
|
Link to some great photos of Ivan from the International Space Station:
Ivan Space Photos
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 01:57 AM |
|
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Re: Rule & Jason
|
Just a note to anyone who cares...
Keith's edumacation is nawt indikative of thaat wiich us Lon Gislanders reseev.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 01:57 AM |
|
|
Re: The good news about the recent model runs
|
I feel bad for those that are going to get hit. Talk about a major disruption in ones life. I am still digging out from Charley, not to mention Frances. Its been a month since Charley (tonight) and I am still # 500 on the list for most roofers to even provide an estimate, and I have to get the roof replaced before I can get my insulation redone, my ceilings and walls drywalled, my wood floors replaced, carpet replaced, house painted, soffits redone, porch repaired, new doors, new windows, and all my personal effects, nevermind the landscaping and trees removed. Which by the way tree and debris removal is not covered by your insurance company. So amongst no electric, water, cable, and long lines for gas, water, ice, and other essentials, its one big headache.
The storm is the easy part.. Afterwards its one big mess. Good luck.. my prayers are with you all for a speedy recovery, patience, and cool nights..
| clyde w. |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 01:57 AM |
|
Re: Rule & Jason
|
Keith he is dead--its a Weekend at Bernies kind of thing they have going on down there.
This was all on Olberman's (sp?) show, so you have to take it how you will. Lord knows he knows nothing about the weather...
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 01:58 AM |
|
|
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Re: The good news about the recent model runs
|
Long term motion looks NNW to me right now. Wobbling a bit. Looks due south of PCB right now, so if that NW motion does not resume, it could be interesting. Just hope he gets sheared to heck before landfall, whereever it occurs.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 01:58 AM |
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Re: Rule & Jason
|
Roughly the same, yes...but I bet you your met degree that it will change by 11pm...to the right. I trust the mets here and they did a whopper of a job with Bonnie, Charley, Frances.....mind you, I'm not calling for TB to get hit. I just think that we'll see a gradual shift to the right over the next 24-36 hours that will put W.C. Florida back into the cone again, and we'll get worse weather than has been forecasted for the last 2 days.
I'll eat crow for a week if I'm wrong on this, but I'm not afraid to give my (met degree or not) prediction on a landfall. I'm going to say anywhere between Pensacola and Suwannee in 3 days. I think Ivan's going to get caught up in the ridge/trough/low whatever it is that's coming down, and depending on how far north Ivan is able to get before that happens will determine the area of landfall. With a storm this big, landfall could be considered anywhere 50.5 miles east and 50.5 miles west of the center, given the fact that the hurricane force winds extend out 105? miles or so. I think everyone from N.O. to Tampa Bay is going to feel an effect from Ivan.
How can they wait for ALL the models to get in? We'd never get a track. Most of them only run twice a day. The UKMET and the CMC have already shifted right. Who knows what the FSU SuperSecret Ensemble will have done by then.
That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
| Elaine H |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 01:58 AM |
|
Re: The good news about the recent model runs
|
Due north ... probably another wobble ... I hope. I am outside Tampa Bay and cannot relax until north of us
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:00 AM |
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Re: Rule & Jason
|
That's a funny one!
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:02 AM |
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Re: Rule & Jason
|
Yeah, comes from lack of sleep.
How the hell can you be a falcons fan...get off my boards!
| peggyone |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:02 AM |
Re: Folks....a personal request....
|
Is there anyway you can stay with her.? Those of us in the medical field (Like me ) know that when the pressure drops so do the baby"s. My prayer's are with you and new one and your existing family.Please if you're family is safe the miracle of life in these trying times renews us all. Thanks for all you do my prayers are with you and all. lurking for info but to shy to post.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:03 AM |
|
Re: Rule & Jason
|
ROFLMAO...Too funny, I sure hope Keith was joking
dani
btw, i can't for the life of me remember my password so danigirl=dani too
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:04 AM |
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Re: Rule & Jason
|
The falcons are going to do great this year, even though their quaterback needs some work, I've been watching them, they're a work in progress.
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:05 AM |
|
Re: Rule & Jason
|
I'm hoping you are wrong, but I can't relax until it's too late for somebody...
I've got both eyes on Ivan for a NE turn.. likely or not.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:05 AM |
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Re: The good news about the recent model runs
|
That's what I'm seeing too. If you check the forecast points from the NHC on the loops from the GOES Sat, you can see how they are obviously going to have to move the track to the east.
Having said that............
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:05 AM |
|
Re: Folks....a personal request....
|
I just had a baby 3 months ago, the day before she was due we had a horrible tornado outbreak here and yeah the contractions came on pretty strong, though the little stinker decided to stay in for another 7 days.
dani
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:06 AM |
|
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Re: Rule & Jason
|
I have Vick in my FL, me like a dummy didn't play Crumpler, too much wobble on the brain
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:07 AM |
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Re: Rule & Jason
|
Mike Vick is a future MVP...no doubt...but so's the CHAD!
OK, gotta stay on topic....anyone think we have Jeanne at 11:00?
I'm trying to stay awake long enough to see if the "rumored" big track shift is a bunch of hooey.
In all seriousness, this is going to be bad...really bad...I just hope everyone who may be affected by Ivan is as prepared as they can be...
Godspeed.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:08 AM |
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|
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Re: Rule & Jason
|
Well, dang...doncha know that in my FFL I have Ahman Green and Carolina as my defense?
I'm gonna go watch the game and scream some obscenities at the TV screen for a while....
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:08 AM |
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Re: Rule & Jason
|
I don't think Jeanne is all cooked up yet. Maybe by 5:00am. Just hope she does not have explosive growth.
| k___g |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:09 AM |
|
Re: Rule & Jason
|
you go girl!!..I'm a bit concerned with the current track..it looks a wee bit too northerly for me here in Orlando...You've been through what we've been through...can't help being a bit gun-shy...if you know what I mean.?.?
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:09 AM |
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Re: Rule & Jason
|
That CHAD thing always gets them going, good job keeping the mood light. I was very interested in the wv's I saw. Ivan get more push than we think
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:10 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Rule & Jason
|
I have, Crumpler, too!
Back on topic: LI Phil...I didn't say a HUGE shift...just a gradual one.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:10 AM |
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|
Predictions
|
I'm still going with that NE turn into the Tampa Bay to Big Bend area. Last night I said once it starts turning it keeps turning NW, N, NE in a short time frame. It may have already done the NW and N part in a short period of time. Next would be NE. Always said the trough would be underplayed and I am keeping to my thinking.
Here is Thomas tonight too:
Hurricane Ivan has turned northward. That means that all the stuff the weather forecasting models and local TV Meteorologists and the NHC have been/are saying about a Pensacola to New Orleans landfall is all crap. I still stick to an Apalachicola to Cedar Key landfall, the only Meteorologist doing so the past few days. If this landfall happens we will all know once again that we're in a hurricane.
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:12 AM |
|
|
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Re: Rule & Jason
|
Collen, funny you say that, I have Ahman also, and I am down by 12 against Kicker John Kasay tonight. Great comeback by Lefty in Jax
| dani |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:12 AM |
|
Re: Rule & Jason
|
I'll be screaming profanities too but only cause my packers defense sucks so far this game.
Oh, btw, switched computers and was already logged in as dani (still cant remember the bloody password)
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:13 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Rule & Jason
|
Yes, I know exactly what you mean. So obviously, I would not want it to come anywhere NEAR us. But the picture tells the story, not the other way around.
It'll be hard to sleep...but try. Because it helps your mood and the ability to cope with whatever life throws at us...hurricanes, flooding, Dynagel..........beating yourself on your own FFL.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:13 AM |
|
|
Re: Babies, Low Pressure and the Moon
|
Haven't seen it mentioned yet, so I'll bring it up. New moon is Tuesday/ Wednesday. Higher than normal tides, plus the waves from Ivan equals, Don't Go Near The Water.
Moms in their last month of pregnancy, have a habit of delivering babies during Hurricanes. The lower the pressure the faster they seem to deliver. Motel, car, home, doesn't matter, the babies come quickly. The rest I'll leave to the Discovery Channel
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:15 AM |
|
Re: The good news about the recent model runs
|
Thanks for the first down, Colleen!
Ivan's been throwing off a lot of material today. Also it seems like the core is getting smaller. Is this caused by interaction with Cuba and the Yacatan?
Maybe another EWR starting? Perhaps Ivan will not regain C5 status from now on, or is he just getting lean and mean for the final run?
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:15 AM |
|
Re: Rule & Jason
|
Castro is 78 years old the last I heard. BTW Jason, my family lives 50 miles north of PCB. I am praying for you. I know a whole church full of people will be as well when I let them know. Take Care.
| dani |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:16 AM |
|
Re: Babies, Low Pressure and the Moon
|
Moms' in their last month of pregnancy love to see new/full moons but in reality they come when they want to
So what is the probability that this storm is going to stay a real strong cat 4 at delivery?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:16 AM |
|
Re: Rule & Jason
|
Don't have a clue what you guys are looking at, but the movement is NW. Steadily NW at that.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:17 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Rule & Jason
|
We're gonna get in trouble for going off-topic.
But it's keeping me sane. Even though a hurricane as big as ...um....Texas? looms to the south, life goes on and we have to live it, like it or not. If we don't we'll go INsane. I'm halfway there as it is.
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:18 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Rule & Jason
|
Looks pretty NNW to me.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/AOI/AOI1_wv_loop.html
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:18 AM |
|
Re: Rule & Jason *DELETED*
|
Post deleted by scottsvb
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:19 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Rule & Jason
|
Earlier today I was saing that there was no way that Ivan turns and heads toward Tampa/Cedar Key.
However, the more you look at the NNW direction he's going now and you look just off to the right, well it gets a bit dicy should Ivan turn earlier than expected.
I guess that's why I'm with Phil tonight. Too tired to be up but can't go to bed with a Cat V lurking off my coastline.
Go Buc's and Jags
Dolphis "RIP"
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:20 AM |
Re: Rule & Jason
|
I think I will wishcast it to the east and let you guys in Tampa have this one.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:21 AM |
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Re: Rule & Jason
|
Coll,
Screw the off-topic restriction for the moment...just don't attack and just don't curse...with what you folks are facing in the next 48-72 hours...I don't even want to think about it.
Panthers will win...
Lon Giland edumacation aren't all dat bad...
I don't do fantasy football.
If Coop Ed or HF were around to help moderate I might feel differently.
Thank god Mike leaves everything up.
AND MIKE HAS BEEN DOING WHATEVER VOODOO HE DO TO KEEP US UP! THANKS MIKE!
| dani |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:21 AM |
|
Re: Rule & Jason
|
The latest recon has lightening in the north wall of Ivan, what does this say, if anything? Is it strengthening again or just one of it's day/night cycles?
Thanks
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:23 AM |
|
Re: Rule & Jason
|
Quote:
Oh colleen you could be right,,,,,,,Tampa area ( where I live) could be back in the edge of the swath if the right things happen,,but if they do it has to be tonight into tomorrow. I dont think much will change at 11pm, maybe slightly east from what Im seeing and info I'm recieving but the 5am will really be the update to watch. OZ models and also how much the trough digs down into the n central gulf.
Ok now this is what I see going on, Im getting alittle worried about a small chance of it turning more N then NNE tomorrow afternoon instead of later tuesday night into Weds. Im not saying this will happen, but its there. Thing is this, 1st off there is a very strong trough in the rockies moving into the plains tonight and will start digging into the Ohio valley Tuesday night into Weds. There are 3 ridges right now, 1 near the Bahamas, 2nd over the ohio valley and 3rd over texas into the western gulf. Now the strong trough is pushing the ridge over texas alittle more to the se into the western gulf causing the weak trough over the norhern and ne gulf to dig alittle bit more. The main vortex is over n GA and is forcasted to be pushed NE ahead of the main trough. Thing is though it might be blocked by the ridge over the Ohio valley which is also pusing east due to the stronger trough to the west so it might not move out as fast and head more east and slowly to the carolinas digging down into the NE Gulf on Tuesday. Since it will be there, IVAN will then turn more N- NNE-NE sooner. So what do we have here then? Watch and see pretty much. If the trough moves to the NE then the ridge in the ohio valley will move behind it briefly between the troughs and keep this more NW into LA-AL area just beginning to feel the main trough. If the ridge moves east and blocks the weak trough while the ridge over the gulf pushes more east (which its doing now) this would cause more troughiness over the Ne gulf and steer Ivan sooner to the NE.
traditionally, when one puts up a quote, one replies to that quote...LOL!
| Elaine H |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:25 AM |
|
Re: Rule & Jason
|
Scott, I guess it is worth repeating
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:25 AM |
|
Re: Rule & Jason
|
Wishcasting to Tampa
| BabyCat |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:26 AM |
|
Re: Rule & Jason
|
Still has lightening??
Intense
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:27 AM |
|
Re: Rule & Jason *DELETED*
|
Why did you delete your post ?.. it was pretty insightful I thought, and laid out many of the reasons I haven't taken built shelves out of the plywood in my garage yet!
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:27 AM |
|
Re: Rule & Jason
|
Quote:
Wishcasting to Tampa
Dude.... you're just going to make it where you have to register to post... Chill!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:30 AM |
|
Re: Rule & Jason
|
Did I miss something...Why does everyone think there will be an east shift? From everything I see, he is right on target for what the NHC was saying. Also, all models show it between NO and Ft Walton. Do we have some thrill seekers on here tonight. It's like you guys are looking for any excuse you can for it to come back to central FL. If it is are slight bit right, you guys are calling it a full north shift. It is obviously moving NW. At the very most NNW.
| BabyCat |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:36 AM |
|
Re: Rule & Jason
|
That recon on NWS site is 3 hours old...
thought they were going in more often or did I look in the wrong place?
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:36 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Rule & Jason
|
New Discussion/Advisory Out
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200409.disc.html
TRACK SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WEST, AGAIN
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:37 AM |
|
Re: Rule & Jason
|
the sad part is someone will be right.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:37 AM |
|
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|
Re: Rule & Jason
|
jth,
it's not that they're wishing it to cent fla. For me, I'vee seen enough storms turn and move in ways that were not expected to know that it "could" happen.
Usually these storms curve East and not West.
At least no one is saying Texas......
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:38 AM |
|
Re: Rule & Jason
|
Its Called Post Charley distress syndrome. There is not a model invented that we in the Tampa Bay area trust.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:39 AM |
|
Re: Rule & Jason
|
LOL you can always tell when there is someone whos a vet on here who trys to challenge someone on what they think and then calls them wishcasting but they are just UPSET if we tell them it MIGHT not come their way. Sorry Unknown I guess you think its going or hoping to you and it might. Right now I have it forcasted to LA-Mobile near Biloxi. I just giving a insight on maybe if this all comes together then Cedar Key and the Big Bend area might come into play. But Tampa? Highly doubt it but if Big Bend area does happen , Tampa will get TS winds on Weds. Right now staying with my 3 day landfall. Also if anyone does think it might go 1 way or another, instead of guessing a spot, I would like to see reasons behind their thinking, you dont have to be a met todo that. There are always options open.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:39 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Here's the Beef
|
From the 11pm discussion
THE
CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK PREDICTION MODELS SHOWS A
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO
THE NORTH AS THE HURRICANE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
AS THE CENTER NEARS THE COAST...A SLIGHT TURN TO THE EAST COULD
OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO RESPOND TO SLIGHT WESTERLY STEERING
FLOW. ONCE AGAIN...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A
LITTLE TO THE WEST...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFDL
AND GFS SOLUTIONS. THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE RUN IS ONLY
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE NHC TRACK.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
EASTWARD TO ST. MARKS FLORIDA...INCLUDING GREATER NEW ORLEANS
LOUISIANA
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:39 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Rule & Jason
|
Hey jth,
Thomas and myself have been saying Tampa, Big Bend, extreme eastern panhandle for days now. Just check the old posts. No thrill casting by us, been saying it for days.
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:40 AM |
|
Re: Rule & Jason
|
Having just experienced the Joy of Frances, I really don't want to do that again soon.
If Ivan has any chance of heading my way, I want to take prudent measures at the earliest possible time. Sorry if you feel like that's an "excuse" for being concerned.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:40 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Rule & Jason
|
Damn...
Unless I'm reading this wrong, that's a CAT IV in Mobile bay...
Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while.
Rick, MBfly and all with friends/family/interests there...be safe!
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:40 AM |
|
TWC
|
It seems to me that TWC is changing it's forecast? I may be wrong, but last time I saw (the older guy met... what's his name again) talk, he was saying West coast of Florida and ignoring points west. This time, he used his hand to show the potential track and it was much closer to Louisiana..... Did anyone see what I saw and maybe paid more attention?
| Elaine H |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:41 AM |
|
Re: Rule & Jason
|
Right you are Guppie...we are all very edgy in central FL...hence the run on plywood and fuel...then there is the thought that none of us wants it to land anywhere, but there is the inevitable....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:43 AM |
|
Re: Rule & Jason
|
"Once again...the official forecast track has been shifted a
little to the west...and is in best agreement with the latest GFDL
and GFS solutions. The latest FSU superensemble run is only
slightly to the west of the NHC track."
How can they shift it to the west even more when everytjhing I see points to a more eastward track?
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:43 AM |
|
Here is the key statement in the 11:00pm
|
The consensus of the dynamical track prediction models shows a northwestward to north-northwestward motion followed by a turn to the north as the hurricane moves into the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Ivan will continue to go somewhat to the west heading around 325 degrees... and the NE turn will NOT occur until close to landfall.... WOW
88.5 is south of Pascagoula I think.....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:44 AM |
|
Re: Rule & Jason
|
I agree with you scottsvb I just think I have been reading this stuff too much today, seems that there are few who want this thing in Tampa and hope they are right. I don't want it to come here at alll. Hurricanes are NOT FUN
Where are you? We know you don't want it "there" but where is that? Thanks!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:47 AM |
|
Re: Rule & Jason
|
Is Tampa near Missippi?
| dani |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:48 AM |
|
Re: Here's the Beef
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Okay, so I'm a tad confused. What is causing the sudden change for landfall farther west towards New Orleans? Is the trough farther west than expected or what could be a better reason for the ms/la expected landfall.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:49 AM |
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Re: Rule & Jason
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Gulf Breeze, Panhandle Florida south of Pensacola
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:50 AM |
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NEW THREAD!
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Mike just put up a new thread...
| BabyCat |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:50 AM |
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Re: Rule & Jason
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Yes, but far away from Mississippi <joking>
Actually, looking at the strike probabilities, Texas, Port Arthur, is at 10% now
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:50 AM |
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Re: Rule & Jason
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I would have never expected Ivan to get past 88 degrees period... 120K too geesh.... boy, what changes will we see at the 5 am advisory... posted earlier most of the models were left of the forecast... gee they actually went with them this time
FSU SE is also slightly west of forecast track, wonder what's its targeting...
the GOM, continuing its tradition as being the grave yard of busted forecasts... the saga continues tomorrow....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:51 AM |
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Re: Rule & Jason
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funny you say that on another board derek ortt writes:we have shifted back to the right as we may have had some bad 12Z upper air obs that went into the 12Z forecast
http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004forecast.html
| peggyone |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:53 AM |
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Re: Rule & Jason
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okay I know I am new but please sombody tell me where you can possibly see it threatining the TB area. I live on a tiny island off the southern most part of Pass- A -Grill. We are talking major coastal damage as well as maybe a new inlet with any surge. I thought we were in the clear?
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:53 AM |
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New ETA
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I think we are seeing the results of the change in track being reflected in the ETA, anyway. 18z took Ivan right over New Orleans, now it looks to have shifted at least 50 miles east.
That trof looks like it is still strong, and is still digging. NNW may continue longer than expected, just like wnw did.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 02:53 AM |
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Re: Here's the Beef
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As i posted many times the runs of the 18z,,which are 2pm are used for the 11pm update here. The dont have the oz run which is 8pm to give out and when they do it will be at the 5am update. Also the Bamn models that you will see at 6z and 2am eastern will be run offs of the GFS run tonight at 0Z. So movement tonight into tomorrow and 0z runs will be key.
| mbfly |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 03:15 AM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Rule & Jason
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I really didn't want to echo Rick, but the news tonight has been my thought all week.(I won't go into the thing with my mother's headstone again !) Yeah LI Phil, I read it the same way you did. Cat 4/5 Mobile Bay.
I put an attachment that I got this morning, I deleted the source cuz I'm not sure I was supposed to share it. Even though it came out at 9 am today, it appears to be right on the money !
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 03:22 AM |
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Re: NEW THREAD
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New thread up at 10 pm
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 04:30 AM |
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Re: Folks....a personal request....
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Best Wishes, hugs and prayers comin y'all's way from Texas
'shana
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 05:36 AM |
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Re: To Frank P
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Well you said if it hit Mobile us in Pensacola would get the crap knocked out of us..Does this seem to be happening or is there a chance it can still make landfall east of us.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 12:19 PM |
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Re: NEW THREAD
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Live in Lapalce,La. Taking off work today to board up my house and my daughters. I have been keeping an eye on Ivan and I don't like the looks of things.Still to early to tell but as I posted about 4 days ago I have a bad feeling about Ivan.I think everyone here in the New Orleans area is taking this thing serious as we all should..The weather here is overcast and spotty showers.If you look at the clouds they are moving to the NW. Some voluntary evacuations,and mandatory evacuations are taking place in different parishes around the area.So we are taking things seriously.Will probablly leave this afternoon and go towards Houston if it is still coming this way. I have heard that all motels are reserved as far north as Jackson Miss. Everone take this Storm "serious" because this is nothing to mess with.Best of luck to anyone in it's path.