MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 08:54 PM |
Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico
|
Jim Williams and his Hurricane City Broadcast from 8PM till 11PM and running radio from Jamaica at other times... -- Link to Real Audio -- updated!
Let Jim know where you are from.. Use this link to listen
This track may have errors, all people in the Hurricane Warning area need to prepare.
Hurricane Warnings are up, and Hurricane Force Winds are likely in the warning area late tomorrow. From Grand Isle, Louisiana to Apalachicola, Florida. Including New Orleans. The 5PM Track takes it right up Mobile Bay in Alabama. Folks in the affected areas should listen to local media and officials for more information.
Tropical Storm Jeanne is also stronger at 5M, with winds up to 60MPH. This has caused Hurricane Warnings to also be issued for Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. It may landfall there as a category 1 hurricane.
Hurricane Ivan has weakened today, but the weakening trend has ended, it's about to get over a very warm eddy in the Gulf and it may strengthen a bit again. As it nears the coast shear is expected and may weaken it some, however it will remain a major (Cat3+) hurricane at Landfall, and it looks like Mobile Bay will be under the gun, although a small veer east or west could put it into the other areas. Ivan is also a very large storm, so winds will be felt quite a ways.
After landfall Ivan may stall out the in the Appalachin mountains, possibly causing flooding there.
Jeanne is looking better as well, and may very well become a strong Tropical Storm or minimal hurricane before it approaches the islands. It's future track is up for grabs, but I'm leaning toward the Atlantic right now. Although, again, it may be another one to watch for Florida up to the Mid-Atlantic states. But there is nothing definite in the long term track now.
Ivan will help determine where Jeanne goes in the long term, if Ivan causes the ridge to strengthen it will move more westward, if not, it may be a fish spinner. There is a very wide spread on Jeanne's future now so we will have to watch this. Yes I know you are tired of it.
More to come...
Replies to main page articles are temporarily in Registered user mode only. Use "New Visitor" link in top right corner to register.
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
All Current Hurricane Local Statements
Tallahassee, FL (Panhandle) - Long Range Radar Loop
Mobile, AL - Long Range Radar Loop
New Orelans, LA - Long Range Radar Loop
San Juan, PR - Long Range Radar Loop
Key West, FL - Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa Bay/Ruskin,FL (West Central Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop
** SITE NOTE ** Although we are working on improving the site hardware and bandwidth (thanks to donations and help from others), we are still using the old system currently, with slight modifications. Therefore the site may go down from time to time, although not for very long. We are continually working on improving the response without removing usefulness. We have new hardware on order and should be in sometime next week.
Those asking for a mailing address for donations should use
Mike Cornelius
804 Omni Blvd
Suite 101
Newport News, VA 23606
Event RelatedLinks
Flhurricane Mobile, AL Webcam from Joseph Johnston
Animated Version of the Mobile webcam
Closeup Animated Visible Satellite of Ivan
Anmated Ivan Visible floater Satellite
Buoy Reports from a buoy near Ivan
Police , fire and rescue scanner audio feeds from Gulf Coast locations
Storm Surge Maps for Alabama
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
Weather Underground Model Plots for Ivan
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image
Animated Color Ivan Satellite (With NHC Track Overlay)
(Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne
Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures
General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps
Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
| FireAng85 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 09:09 PM |
Where...........
|
did everyone go? You guys are being quiet, what's going on??????
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 09:19 PM |
|
|
Re: Where...........
|
I think people are taking a much needed breather....also, a lot of people who post here on a regular basis are in the path of this storm.
Those of us in Florida who are NOT, are turning off their tv's and getting ready for..what do you call it?
Oh yeah...LIFE.
Still lifting up prayers that this storm hits something that decreases it's intensity. We know it's going to hit, I just pray that it's not a Cat 4 at landfall. Still keeping my fingers crossed.
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 09:23 PM |
|
|
Re: Where...........
|
what is the thing forming just to the north of the eye?? link
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 09:28 PM |
|
|
Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico
|
I know it seems to be heading towards Florida but there is a short-wave trough lifting north, which will provide a time for the high to build back. This will make the storm "feel it's way around" the ridge and landfalling most likely in Mobile but this storm's path is not set in stone because the high that were dealing with is a very tricky one. After this storm makes landfall it will cause mass flooding all the way up to the Great Lakes because of that ridge. Anywhoo, Jeanne should travel into the Central Gulf but that all depends on where Ivan go's so nothing is certain about that track either as indicated by LI phil. Also as a side note, JB is making comparsions with Gloria on this wave exiting Afirca, does anyone think it could be a New England Storm, as the pattern might flip back just after Jeanne?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 09:29 PM |
|
Re: Where...........
|
What is that thing North of the eye?...........Why..........it's a cataract......eye definitely needs a lens replacement!
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 09:30 PM |
|
|
Re: Where...........
|
>>> what is the thing forming just to the north of the eye??
an eyebrow.
Seriously, I'm not entirely certain to what you are referring, but looking at some WV loops, it looks to be a pretty immense feederband...I could very easily be wrong though...
On the previous thread, a question was posed, which to rephrase would be: "how many miles (nautical or linear) are there to one degree of longitude?)" I know I have a link for that somewhere, but I'm not looking ATTM. Maybe someone knows off the top of their head...I think it's ~60 miles or so, but again, I could be wrong.
| lilyv |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 09:33 PM |
|
Re: Where...........
|
Spent yesterday making sure my college student left for a safe place -and for me that turned out to be sort of evacuation by proxy. So many details to take care of by multiple phone calls. I was surprized how tired I was at the end of the day.
It is good to occasionally catch a breath.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 09:33 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Where...........
|
I'm pretty sure it's 60 miles for one degree of Lat but longitude differs because of all that fuss about being in the same time zone. Also since the Earth is a sphere then it is composed of 360 degrees so that would make the time zones seperated by 15 degrees and 24 time zones I think, just some info.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 09:34 PM |
|
Re: Where...........
|
with out checking, and going back into the deeeeeeeep resources of my brain, I think it was in the neighborhood of 65. I wouldn't write that down as fact though.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 09:37 PM |
|
|
|
Got it
|
http://pollux.nss.nima.mil/calc/degree.html
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 09:39 PM |
|
Re: Got it
|
Great job.....forgot to think in terms of NM also. I guess the answer is 60 NM and 69 Statue miles for those who want a quicker answer.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 09:44 PM |
|
|
Re: Where...........
|
Here's a little kid thing on lon/lat distances:
Lat/Lon Distance
After the 335 heading, Ivan's twisting a little more to the west the last frame. At 4pm, NHC had it at 24.2N, 86.6W. 20:45UTC shows it at 24.20N, 86.71W based on a rough zoom of the Goes-12 Visible. I'm wondering how much longer the western component will remain and how far west Ivan can get overall. Thoughts last night were that he'd have a tough time getting West of 87.5 even though I favored a SW MS landfall. This will be crucial as to who (that's all of you east of me) gets the landfall of the eyewall and who gets the NE quadrant.
Steve
| gonyen |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 09:45 PM |
|
Re: Where...........
|
You can use Excel to compute the "as the crow flies" distance between any two points on the earth.
The formula to compute this distance is:
=RadiusEarth*ACOS(COS(RADIANS(90-(Lat1*24)))*COS(RADIANS(90-(Lat2*24)))+
SIN(RADIANS(90-(Lat1*24)))*SIN(RADIANS(90-(Lat2*24)))*
COS(RADIANS(24*(Long1-Long2))))
Where
Lat1 is the latitude of point 1, entered as DD:MM:SS.
Long1 is the longitude of point 1, entered as DD:MM:SS.
Lat2 is the latitude of point 2, entered as DD:MM:SS.
Long2 is the longitude of point 2, entered as DD:MM:SS.
RadiusEarth is the radius of the earth (3,963 miles or 6,377 kilometers).
The function above works only for points in the Northern and Western hemisphere, where Latitudes and Longitudes are considered to be positive. If you are mixing hemispheres, enter Northern and Western coordinates as positive, and Southern and Eastern coordinates as negative, and use the following formula:
=RadiusEarth*ACOS(COS(RADIANS(90-Lat1))*COS(RADIANS(90-Lat2))+
SIN(RADIANS(90-Lat1))*SIN(RADIANS(90-Lat2))*COS(RADIANS(Long1-Long2)))
In this formula, Lat1, Long1, Lat2, and Long2 must be entered as decimal degrees (e.g., 45.5 rather than 45:30:00).
gonyen
| dani |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 09:46 PM |
|
Re: Where...........
|
Just a question...wouldn't a landfall in mobile bay be worse for pensacola since they'd be on the east side of the storm?
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 09:48 PM |
|
|
Thomas Email
|
Yesterday's deep south mid level shortwave trough turned Hurricane Ivan from a WNW to NNW-N heading for a number of hours. But as the shortwave trough raced NE'ward faster then I though it would, Ivan settled back into a NNW heading. Also evident on satellite imagery is a shortwave high pressure ridge now over the deep south in place of the departed shortwave trough.
I now cancel my Apalachicola to Cedar Key landfall forecast. A Biloxi, MS to Pensacola, FL landfall window is probable with a bulls eye on another shallow and vulnerable estuary called Mobile Bay.
In the nearer term I do expect a continued slowing of the forward speed on the NNW track and also continued shearing and dry air entrainment and therefore weakening. It is possible that the deepening mid level longwave trough now over the western U.S. will move eastward fast enough into the Midwest region to turn Ivan onto NNE-NE with a landfall somewhere between Panama City and Apalachicola but that scenario has a low probability.
In the mid term Ivan may once again grow to CAT 5 status as he passes across the near 90 deg. F loop current in the central Gulf Of Mexico, much like Opal in 1995. I think Ivan will landfall as a CAT 4-3 cyclone. Though most of the Florida panhandle and west coast of the peninsula should not be directly impacted, a significant storm surge should occur west of Apalachicola, with a moderate to minor storm surge as far east and south as the Tampa Bay region.
We now have Tropical Storm Jeanne (GADS!!!) in the vicinity of the northern Leeward Islands. She is still rather weak and on a general WNW track at approximately 10 mph. In the near term she should threaten the Virgin islands and Puerto Rico as a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane. In the mid and late term a Hurricane Jeanne will threaten a huge window between Havana, Cuba and North Carolina. I've had no time to really look closely at a probable forecast track but my initial impressions would be a beeline for the T & C Islands/Bahama Islands and the S.E. coast of Florida, then a hopeful turn NW-N east of Florida.
All this hurricane stuff is putting a crimp in my regular salt water fishing forays!!!!!
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 09:49 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Where...........
|
No a landfall in Pensacola would be worse for Pensacola. It won't be a picnic for you either way, as you'll be very close to the right eyewall (strongest winds), but you do not want the EYE coming directly over you...
Edit: Hmmmm...has Mr. Giella been reading my posts? LOL...I may get ONE forecast right this season...sorry rick & mbf
| mbfly |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 09:54 PM |
|
|
Re: Where...........
|
Hey Skeetobite............ how soon are you going to do one of your street level maps for Mobile ?? I may need it to use as leverage to get my hubby to leave !!
Thanks !
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 09:59 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Where...........
|
It looks like another ERC again? So close to landfall too, I'll bet this isn't the last one where going to see.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 09:59 PM |
|
One thing to watch....
|
If you are fans of the Tom Clancy book or movie "The Hunt For Red October", watch out later tonight and hope we don't see a "Crazy Ivan"...
Sorry, couldn't resist...
|
SkeetoBite
|
| (Master of Maps) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 09:59 PM |
|
|
Re: Where...........
|
If this doesn't do it, nothing will make him go:
Full size:
http://www.skeetobite.com/weather/maps/ivan_centralgulf49.gif
As Mike indicates with each new thread, do not focus only on the forecast path, everyone under a warning or watch needs to be prepared.
NHC Advisory 50 for Ivan indicates hurricane force winds up to 100 miles inland at landfall.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 10:00 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Where...........
|
Thanks skeet! Um...that would convince ME to leave
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 10:03 PM |
|
|
Re: Where...........
|
Quote:http://www.skeetobite.com/weather/maps/ivan_centralgulf45.gif
Hey Skeetobite............ how soon are you going to do one of your street level maps for Mobile ?? I may need it to use as leverage to get my hubby to leave !!
Thanks !
This is close. hope it helps.
| mud1967 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 10:11 PM |
|
Re: Where...........
|
You got it right!!
60 NM and 69.....static
Thanks LI phil and all who took a stab at it. Great link!
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 10:11 PM |
|
|
|
convince me to leave as well
|
Anytime you're on the coast with a major storm coming at you, I think you should leave.
Judging from the traffic coming out of New Orleans, lots of people are evacuating.
| Rubber Ducky |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 10:12 PM |
|
|
Re: Where...........
|
Table 7 of Bowditch (American Practical Navigator) is the best source for longitude-at-latitude distance calcs: http://pollux.nss.nima.mil/pubs/pubs_j_apn_sections.html?rid=187
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 10:12 PM |
|
|
Re: Where...........
|
Quote:
If this doesn't do it, nothing will make him go:
That's it. I'm out of here . Bye
Full size:
http://www.skeetobite.com/weather/maps/ivan_centralgulf49.gif
That's it. I'm out of here . Bye
| CentralFlorida |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 10:16 PM |
|
Re: Where...........
|
Everyone in the path or that will be affected from Ivan I wish you all the best. Be safe!!
| lcdrgas |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 10:17 PM |
|
Re: Where...........
|
Question from an amateur......Should I evacuate to a shelter 4 miles away?or stay in the house.....Front door step is at 25 foot level..1/2 mile north of the perdido key sound/grand lagoon. House was built in 1996 2200 sf, stucco....Very few trees. I am sending the family but thinking of staying as others in the neighborhhod are also...Would a shelter offer more protection?(school), even though it is very similiar in distance from the gulf as the house.......Thanks for your responses
|
SkeetoBite
|
| (Master of Maps) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 10:22 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Where...........
|
Quote:
Question from an amateur......Should I evacuate to a shelter 4 miles away?or stay in the house.....Front door step is at 25 foot level..1/2 mile north of the perdido key sound/grand lagoon. House was built in 1996 2200 sf, stucco....Very few trees. I am sending the family but thinking of staying as others in the neighborhhod are also...Would a shelter offer more protection?(school), even though it is very similiar in distance from the gulf as the house.......Thanks for your responses
When I lived in Metro Detroit, we had a local Met who always said; "if threatening weather approaches, or you feel threatened by the weather, move to a safe location"
You choice to evac is yours alone. I'm confident you will make the right decision.
Be safe.
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 10:36 PM |
|
Re: Where...........
|
Go to another shelter inland.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 10:44 PM |
|
|
Re: Where? Maybe Pass Christian
|
Why not? Maybe its the summer of Camille. Big anniversary, lots of talk. Hasn't been one like that in a long time. Earlier in the season around the anniversary there was talk of that storm going in there.
Usually this season I have looked to the right of the cone (usually south) and was right with both Charley and Frances but with Ivan's tenancious nature and need to go west.. just takes a little westward movement or lack of eastern movement at landfall to replay landfall where Camille made famous. A hard act to follow.. maybe this is the year for Ivan to do so.
Just a few thoughts of an historic point of view.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 10:44 PM |
|
|
Re: Where...........
|
If you think you may be in a dangerous location LEAVE NOW!! It will take you At least twice as long to get from point A to point B now. Waiting will further jeopardize your safety.
I'm at the intersection of I-59(from New Orleans), US 98(from Mobile and FL panhandle), and US 49 (from the MS Gulf Coast) I have never seen traffic back up SO Bad.
New Orleans: Contra flow (4 lanes of traffic out!! east and west)
Airport:most airlines are shutting down at 7pm CDT tonite.
Traffic is at a crawl here. Long lines at fuel pumps. And I'm 60 miles from the Gulf Of Mexico!!
I've been told that US Hwy 49 from Gulfport is backing up below Hattiesburg.
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 10:45 PM |
|
Re: Where...........
|
Joseph Johnston has a webcam in a really good location in Mobile bay that we host on this site, http://flhurricane.com/jjohnston/
wanted to make special mention of that
Also if jjohnston is around please email me. (I lost your original email)
| lilyv |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 10:52 PM |
|
Re: Where...........
|
Quote:
If you think you may be in a dangerous location LEAVE NOW!! It will take you At least twice as long to get from point A to point B now. Waiting will further jeopardize your safety.
Incredibly good advice.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 11:01 PM |
|
|
|
GO NOW!
|
mbfly...
I just checked "who's online" and noticed you are still here. How much more convincing will it take?
I know this may be the most difficult decision you will ever have to make, but this in NOT frederick. It's GOING TO BE WORSE (unless the almighty one throws us a bone...pray for that).
I really think you need to evac now...to Texas! If your husband won't go...you may want to consider going it alone (I know that would be another incredibly difficult decision). If you do decide to go..GO NOW. Every minute you delay puts you in that much more danger!
If you do decide to stay, then my heart and prayers will certainly be with you...godspeed!
| Allison |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 11:03 PM |
|
|
A little OT -- but applies to evac areas...
|
To those who are evacuating:
First of all, let me wish each of you the best of luck. All our thoughts will be with you during the coming days.
Second, while human interests ALWAYS come first, please remember to take your pets with you. If you are not able to return for days or weeks, they won't be ok on their own. Tell your neighbors too...
Some resources that might be of help:
Mobile, AL SPCA -- http://www.mobilespca.org/
Louisiana SPCA -- http://www.la-spca.org/
Pet-Friendly Hotels -- http://www.petswelcome.com/
Emergency Animal Rescue Service -- http://www.uan.org/ears/
Animals in Disasters -- http://www.redcross.org/services/disaster/0,1082,0_604_,00.html
Humane Society of Bay County, 1600 Bay Ave, Panama City, Florida 32405, (850) 763-3923
Allison
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 11:04 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Where...........
|
can we just ask you to compute it for us??
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 11:07 PM |
|
|
|
Re: GO NOW!
|
Phil and MBfly, based on the traffic I'm seeing here. 80 miles from Mobile. Mobile residents may be better off on Interstate 65. Just remember, Once you leave, don't turn around and go back!!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 11:09 PM |
|
Re: GO NOW!
|
65N out of Mobile is a virtual parking lot from Mobile all the way to BHAM. It took my sister 4.5 hrs to get to Montgomery. My cousins coming up and have gotten off the interstate in favor of back roads.
| mbfly |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 11:10 PM |
|
|
|
Re: GO NOW!
|
Thaks Phil. I'll take all the prayers we can get ! Looks like I'm stuck here come the proverbial "hell or high water"
Have been with DH (dear hubby or dumb hubby..... just depends) for 30 years now and don't think I could leave without him. As I said, his parents aren't going so he's not going to desert them. I will print out your message in hopes of swaying him, but it's doubtful. They just issued a mandatory evacuation for all of Alabama south of 1-10 so we now have some more family on their way to our house. Have fingers and toes crossed, lots of spam and valium, and have issued prayers up to the Almighty. I'll keep ya posted; I'll be here until I can't be .......................
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 11:13 PM |
|
Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico
|
I'll have more on Ivan later, but if JB is harping on a major hurricane in Gloria with the wave exiting Africa...he's lost what little respect I might've had for him before now.
Best line I've heard with Jeanne is about the model tracks: "anything with a G to start its name is turning it north, the others are west." That's what we've heard with every other Atlantic hurricane thus far...what's to stop this one? It'll likely sit near the Bahamas for a day or two down the line and be one to watch; even if it turns NW or N, a ridge is forecast to build in by most of the models and turn it back west. Where? No idea as of yet and probably a week+ away. Let's watch Ivan first.
Of which, the current westward movement seems to be more of an eyewall replacement moreso than anything and there is still the very real possibility for this thing to come in further east than anticipated. There is also the possibility that it slows to a crawl over the central Gulf if it gets caught in the col region. Everyone in the warning area - yes, even to Apalachicola and points a bit further east - needs to watch this one. The slower it moves, the greater likelihood it goes east.
The 18z models all trended further east with this storm than at 12z...which were further east than at 00z. Just something to watch. More later...
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 11:13 PM |
|
|
|
Re: GO NOW!
|
OK...up until I was served with papers about a year ago, I wouldn't do anything without my spouse...come Hell or High Water...as you said...all I can say is...
GOOD LUCK...I'M GOING TO MAKE A PERSONAL APPEAL TO THE ALMIGHTY...IF SHE'LL TAKE ME BACK INTO THE FOLD.
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 11:15 PM |
|
|
|
Re: GO NOW!
|
if you have a doubt you need to go. better safe than sorry.
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 11:16 PM |
|
Re: GO NOW!
|
Put up recording of mobile bay cam since 7...
http://flhurricane.com/mobilecam.php
It will get big
but I'm leaving it on until the storm passes and making a mpg or avi of it after its said and done.
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 11:18 PM |
|
Re: One thing to watch....
|
TV show Andromeda had the spaceship Andromeda doin a "Crazy Ivan" in their first season. Guess the writers are Clancy fans?
Back on topic.... Because of all of the good info here, I was able to pursuade The Nephew and his friends to pack up, gas up and leave New Orleans yesterday ahead of the zillions currently parked on I-10.
Thank you all!
'shana
Quote:
If you are fans of the Tom Clancy book or movie "The Hunt For Red October", watch out later tonight and hope we don't see a "Crazy Ivan"...
Sorry, couldn't resist...
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 11:24 PM |
|
|
|
jeanne too...to FL and Puerto Rico
|
Read what you wrote Clark. Don't see how this storm goes easily out to sea. Even the first discussion said that it could west of the forecast...or some similar wording. With the outflow to the north and north west of Ivan pushing down on it... keeping it intact but a not so intense storm. The flow to the north is east to west and can see where eventually the high will build in again.
I've heard locally from people on TV.. maybe Bermuda, NC..
Meanwhile it went more west than expected to start with and seems Jeanne will do what many haven't done yet.. hit PR and the islands.
Something to watch..
as we watch Ivan make his move and see how they both dance.
| Bioman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 11:25 PM |
|
|
Re: Where...........
|
wave heights are now 32.5 feet at buoy 42003 and the sustained winds are around 51 mph. bad time to be hanging on to a buoy. three story waves...impressive
| richisurfs |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 11:26 PM |
|
|
Re: GO NOW!
|
I was just reading the 5pm discussion on TS Jeanne and when I read "thru the Bahamas and towards the Florida pennisula" I got the the weirdest feeling. It was like at this point I'm almost getting a defiant attitude towards these things ..like "come on, you wanna hit us again it doesn't matter because you will never win" Kinda stupid I know but anyhow I really "feel" that it's going to end up going out to sea and be a wave producer for us and thats all but you never know. The fact remains I've had it with these freaking things this year. If I'm not worried about my family getting hit here then I'm worried about the rest of my family getting hit somewhere else..i.e. Ivan in the panhandle and then you gotta start worrying about another one coming here. It gets old. ok, sorry guys...just venting a little...I'm praying for the people in the gulf who are going to get slammed by Ivan and I hope in the end it won't be as bad as it looks like its gonna be. If you're in harms way and they tell you to get out please do it. I won't even get into the stories friends have told me about going thru Frances after they decided "not" to leave. It's not worth and this storm could be stronger.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 11:27 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Where...........
|
>>> wave heights are now 32.5
That's assuming a 10' ceiling...if your ceilings are 8', then it's four stories high...coupled with possibly 18' of surge...
edit: Mike, how long do you expect Mr. Johnson's webcam to last?
| Mozart |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 11:31 PM |
|
|
Buoy action picking up
|
Someone mentioned that buoy earlier today that's right in the path...Wind speed is up to 45 knots, and waves are at 33 feet, while the pressure is droppling like a rock.
Buoy 42003
Edited to add:
Oh well, somebody beat me to it...
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 11:32 PM |
|
|
|
explanation of ivan's movement and listen phil
|
Tried to explain it to some children today as: when they fill up the washer with too many pairs of jeans and it goes to the spin cycle and the machine suddenly goes berserk. There are varying sizes and areas of storms circling around the eye wall inside Ivan and when a wide area swirls around you see the eye movement wiggle or wobble wildy. The overall movement is NNW (or whatever the advisory states) but from centrifugal force alone there are some wild swings within that path.
Next... or think of it like a sixteen wheeler that makes WIDE turns.. and has an unstable load.
Phil.. relax. You are giving good advice but I'm beginning to get worried about you. Picture you sitting up at 3am beginning people on IMs to please get out of Dodge .. And, you are right on most of what you said but people don't listen and they have their own strange priorities and reasoning.
I know.. I've been there.
Andrew.. stayed on Miami Beach. My ex-husband refused to leave. Mind you... was wild, glad I was there and not Kendall where my friend's house blew away but that was rare.. could hear the ocean and the pounding surf. It aint for the faint of heart. Fun to look back at.. I was terrified at the time though.
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 11:35 PM |
|
Re: explanation of ivan's movement and listen phil
|
Not sure, but I'll leave it recording as long as it keeps sending images to the server.
| Thunder |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 11:36 PM |
|
Re: Buoy action picking up
|
I'm cluless about this stuff, but I love learning from you folks that aren't.... That being said, what can we here in Tallahasse expect to see from IVAN if anything. I'm imagining a little wind, with a lot of rain... Am I way off?
Thanks for any input.
T
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 11:38 PM |
|
|
|
Re: explanation of ivan's movement and listen phil
|
>>> Phil.. relax. You are giving good advice but I'm beginning to get worried about you. Picture you sitting up at 3am beginning people on IMs to please get out of Dodge .. And, you are right on most of what you said but people don't listen and they have their own strange priorities and reasoning.
Fair point bobbi, but I'm not just wavemongering or wishcasting...I am basing my warnings on what the NHC and other professional mets around the net are saying...this is not a whimsical "CAT V Mobile Bay" with an Invest...
I'm glad you and others made it through Andrew.
But I can see the damage and destruction Ivan has already wrought...death total alone 60+ and I'll bet it's aready much higher...we just don't know yet.
I'm NOT trying to scare anyone needlessly (others will take care of that). I'm trying to say if a CAT IV if forecast to come your way in less than 48 hours...you might consider getting out of it's way...das all.
I'll tone it down, but I'd rather scare 100 people needlessly than have one person be injured or killed because they didn't take the threat seriously.
Any mets want to agree/disagree with me? I'll gladly take my lumps if you think I'm overreacting.
| Bioman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 11:39 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Buoy action picking up
|
seems like that webcam isnt updating last image is still like 5:45
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 11:42 PM |
|
Re: Buoy action picking up
|
It's still set on standard time. And it's in Central Timezone.
| mbfly |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 11:47 PM |
|
|
|
Re: GO NOW!
|
Quote:
Phil and MBfly, based on the traffic I'm seeing here. 80 miles from Mobile. Mobile residents may be better off on Interstate 65.
Don't think so. Just talked to my son who is on 65 on his way to Montgomery. He has been on the road for almost 4 hours and is still 60 miles out !! He says they are averaging 15-20mph. Also heard that 98 east is backed up from here to Lucedale, MS. I think it would be almost be more dangerous to leave at this point. Maybe since all of the smart people left today, us dummies would have a chance of getting out very early tomorrow a.m. ..................... but I doubt it !
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 11:47 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Buoy action picking up
|
>>> what can we here in Tallahasse expect to see from IVAN if anything.
My best guess as to how to visually interpret this (maybe skeetobite can spin some more magic) would be to look at this NHC graphic. Then extrapolate as to where it will go inland (so far, that's Mobile). Then figure how close you are to the TS winds...unfortunately I don't have a US map handy, but I believe Tallahassee is just outside the cone...you SHOULD be fine windwise. However, those down by the coast will probably be seeing small surge and huge (10'+) waves Plus, any feeder bands that pass overhead may have twisters...so be on guard...
| palmetto |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 11:50 PM |
|
Re: Buoy action picking up
|
Actually, it looks like we'll be inside the TS winds. Tallahassee is near the GA border at the very narrowest part of the panhandle.
We should be fine when all is said and done, however. Just pray that Ivan doesn't come further east.
| gonyen |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 11:51 PM |
|
Re: Where...........
|
Sure, just give me the latitude and longitude of the two points. Or give me the cities, I have a large table of lat/longs.
gonyen
| Bioman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 11:51 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Buoy action picking up
|
just noticed a ship reporting sustained 53 knot winds. i cant imagine the seas. Time for Dramamine
Ship report near Ivan
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 11:54 PM |
|
|
|
Winds...
|
http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_bands2.asp
Everyone needs to bookmark this website (not that page...go to the main one).
|
SkeetoBite
|
| (Master of Maps) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 11:54 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Buoy action picking up
|
Quote:
>>> what can we here in Tallahasse expect to see from IVAN if anything.
My best guess as to how to visually interpret this (maybe skeetobite can spin some more magic) would be to look at this NHC graphic. Then extrapolate as to where it will go inland (so far, that's Mobile). Then figure how close you are to the TS winds...unfortunately I don't have a US map handy, but I believe Tallahassee is just outside the cone...you SHOULD be fine windwise. However, those down by the coast will probably be seeing small surge and huge (10'+) waves Plus, any feeder bands that pass overhead may have twisters...so be on guard...
Will be creating first Ivan wind field map with 11pm advisory, unless popular demand is that I use 5pm (#50) out of urgency.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 11:55 PM |
|
Re: GO NOW!
|
MBF in Mobile or wherever I wish I could help you out...........please get in touch with this board as soon as you can afterwards..................too bad u can't just come down here and bunk at my place in central florida...........if it were earlier and u could get out, I would PM you with the details. Get to a shelter if u can!
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 11:55 PM |
|
Re: Buoy action picking up
|
It doesn't auto refresh, and not only is the time zone different, the clock on the camera/computer is off, looks like it is 15 minutes fast and CST or 45 minutes slow and CDT. But it is definitely updating.
Bill
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 11:56 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Buoy action picking up
|
wind
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 11:57 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Buoy action picking up
|
You known the Halloween storm I think of 1991 or something had like 100 foot waves, that was the storm in the Perfect Storm. I didn't even know about it at the time, but we did have some snow from it. I like blizzards better than hurricanes that's why I don't live in Florida, I bet a lot people would agree with me on that.
Keith, I bet about 10 million people would like to trade places with us right now, but dude, winter SUCKS!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Sep 14 2004 11:58 PM |
|
Re: explanation of ivan's movement and listen phil
|
LI Phil itwas your wise experience that got me to leave during Frances.................you are a large help to many with your knowledge.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 12:05 AM |
|
Re: explanation of ivan's movement and listen phil
|
I am seeing more of a westardly jog in last few frames.
| Elaine H |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 12:05 AM |
|
Re: Buoy action picking up
|
I have lived in the Tampa area for 17 years and never been so uneasy during the hurricane season. Everyone is stressed from watching the weather every weekend and we have lost a lot of productivity and business in the services industry. I still prefer it to the cold..I just have to ride this season out.
BTW...East of Tampa it is breezy, but dry.
| mud1967 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 12:09 AM |
|
Re: Buoy action picking up
|
I'm here in Tallahassee. And I'd love for you to make a street level from 5pm and 11pm. Am I asking too much?
| Lisa NC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 12:12 AM |
|
Re: Buoy action picking up
|
Keith you didn't know about the storm? I was living in Clinton CT at the time and the road to my condo was flooded for days. I didn't get the waves being on the sound and in a bay. That ship in gulf has some poor timing, to be out there now. Hope they stay safe
| Bruce |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 12:13 AM |
|
Re: explanation of ivan's movement and listen phil
|
I agree with phil, went through Frances here in Brevard. The worst part is after the storm. No power for weeks, No gas, No food. It gets boring really fast!!! FEMA has done a great job here in Brevard and Indian River county, hats off to them. If your in Ivans path, leave for about a month or more.
| Lisa NC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 12:14 AM |
|
Re: explanation of ivan's movement and listen phil
|
It looks like it is nearly stationary for the last hour or 3 frames. The eye has constricted a bit
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 12:15 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Buoy action picking up
|
Well I am about 10 miles from the water, but I do remember some type of percipitation. Wasn't into weather at that time.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 12:15 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Buoy action picking up
|
>>> Keith you didn't know about the storm?
Keith would have been three years old at the time...I don't recall any snow, but I do remember one Hallowe'en Party that I hosted had only about half the guests show up due to the weather...that was one helluva storm...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 12:16 AM |
|
Re: explanation of ivan's movement and listen phil
|
Yeah many are in hot,dark houses all sweaty subsisting on dry icky storm food and no immediate connection to a reliable news source. Those with power in Brevard or wherever try to reach to those without..............what a difference a hot cup of coffee and a meal can make.
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 12:17 AM |
|
|
Re: Buoy action picking up
|
If you look at this Bouy link:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003
26.01 N 85.91 W (26°00'32"N 85°54'50"W)
And where the storm is now:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST
I can see how NHC comes to this statement:
"IVAN IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES."
| Lisa NC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 12:18 AM |
|
Re: Buoy action picking up
|
I guess me being about 23 and him only being 3 might have alot to do with it!!!! lol
| gonyen |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 12:18 AM |
|
Re: Buoy action picking up
|
ElaineH,
I know what you mean. I've been in St. Pete for 28 years, and the only thing that comes close was Elena (check out this track for all those who think they are in the clear http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at198505.asp ). It has just been one right after the other. I'll be glad when this season is over.
gonyen
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 12:19 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Buoy action picking up
|
Yep that too! LOL
| Elaine H |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 12:20 AM |
|
Re: Buoy action picking up
|
Elena was the year before I arrived, but I heard she was one crazy storm.
| richisurfs |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 12:21 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Buoy action picking up
|
I just saw Max Mayfield from the NHC on Sheppard Smith and he said this storm could most definetly make landfall as a Cat 4.
| mud1967 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 12:24 AM |
|
Re: Buoy action picking up
|
Tyndall is not that far away. Eye opening. Thanks for the link.
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 12:25 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Buoy action picking up
|
Quote:
I have lived in the Tampa area for 17 years and never been so uneasy during the hurricane season. Everyone is stressed from watching the weather every weekend and we have lost a lot of productivity and business in the services industry. I still prefer it to the cold..I just have to ride this season out.
BTW...East of Tampa it is breezy, but dry.
Elaine,
I live in Wekiva, an unincorporated area of Seminole county just north of Orlando. I copy your sentiments. It's like people are walking dead around here - going through the motions of their daily work lives and personal lives. A lot of houses are still boarded up and people are saying that they are really depressed. There is debris stacked up on the sides of the streets everywhere (still). Gasoline is in short supply here (supplies must be going to the panhandle region). I work and talk to a lot of people around the country every day and everyone is being really supportive (except for my own company). They, instead, kind of go through the motions of caring and hoping they don't get sued for making the wrong mandate on staying open.
| mud1967 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 12:26 AM |
|
Re: Buoy action picking up
|
That Elena is one crazy storm.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 12:27 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Buoy action picking up
|
I wouldn't say that, it has a lot of dry air to contend with but that doesn't seem to be stopping it. Who knows, I'm saying it will make landfall by Mobile as a hurricane, after it's a hurricane I say forgetaboutit and get out of there!
| belleami |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 12:28 AM |
|
|
Re: Where...........
|
Florida interactive map
This has a map (you'll need to download the plug-in first. If you right-click on the map, the pop-up menu shows "view....Distances" You can left click one point, and then another it will show you exact distances.
Hoping that St. George Island won't suffer too much; I think we are staying put. Unless there is a shift eastward...
Susie
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 12:29 AM |
|
ReI'sa Ready I hope
|
I just got done boarding up the house all windows N and S.The typical warings going out to those S of the Tracks and that means Frank P."if you do not evacuate please leave with us (authorities ) a personel birthmark or tattoo should the corner need to I.D. you".I am about 1/2 mile N of Frank and about 3/4 of a mile from beach.I think J.B. got this one I am thinking Gulfport to Bay St.Louis myself.I see the pressure dropping alittle bit over the course of the day.The Gulf Coast is a ghost town.I expect to see some landbase casino's by Friday.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 12:31 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Buoy action picking up
|
Orlando Dan,
Totally different situation but a fair comparison: the days and weeks after 9/11 up here. For the first couple weeks everyone was an American..a New Yorker...friends helping friends...then the "walking dead" phase. For many, that was it, but for thousands, especially those more directly involved than I, and then a serious need for counseling and support.
I would imagine it will be no different for a number of folks when all is said and done...if you feel you need to seek help, it is wise to do so...I hate to bring this up at a time like this, but these are life-altering experiences. Lots of bouts with alcoholism & drugs...par for the course actually, as that would be expected when one goes through a major catastrophe....if anyone needs a little "therapy" (ie, PM me if you need to vent/emote when all is said and done), I'll reply to everyone and do what I can...I've never seen a season like this one and it's only mid-way thru it.
God bless...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 12:32 AM |
|
CAT 5?
|
000
URNT12 KNHC 142350
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 14/2319Z
B. 24 DEG 33 MIN N
86 DEG 56 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2491 M
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 354 DEG 116 KT
G. 258 DEG 19 NM
H. 928 MB
I. 13 C/ 3054 M
J. 19 C/ 2992 M
K. 16 C/ N/A
L. OPEN SW
M. C43
N. 12345/7
0. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 3609A IVAN OB 25
MAX FLT WND 147KTS NE QUAD 2039Z
| gonyen |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 12:32 AM |
|
Re: Buoy action picking up
|
Yeah, Elena made a sharp right turn and just sat there spinning faster and faster just getting stonger and bigger for what seemed like forever, then did a 180 and went the other way. It was scary. That's why I never feel safe until these storms are inland. No one is safe as long as the bully is on the playground.
gonyen
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 12:34 AM |
|
Re: Buoy action picking up
|
LI Phil you are definitely an angel of some sort put here to help in numerous ways..............Namaste as my tradition says
| mbfly |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 12:37 AM |
|
|
|
Recon reports
|
Any more recon flights going out tonight ?? This waiting 3 hrs between updates is killing me ! Will they continue to fly into it tomorrow as well ?
| richisurfs |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 12:39 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Buoy action picking up
|
I was looking at the track of hurricane Betsy back in the 50's or 60's I don't remember...anyhow that thing got up about even with Jacksonville, FL and did a complete turn around then headed back in the vicinity of Miami. Kinda blows the theory of you're not safe til it's north of your latitude even. I know thats rare but still. i agree ..."you're not safe til the bully has left the playground".
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 12:41 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Recon reports
|
Sorry, you're asking the wrong person but if there is a CAT 4 hurricane and it's only about 500 miles away from the base of the Hurricane Hunters, I'm sure you'll be getting plently of info very soon.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 12:44 AM |
|
Re: Recon reports
|
I believe there are 2 more, but probably will increase tonight, I may be incorrect but I will check.
| Lisa NC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 12:49 AM |
|
Re: Recon reports
|
here the link the schedule of flights and you can read data as they send it.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml
Thanks for the schedule link!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 12:51 AM |
|
HELLO!!!
|
Did anyone read my post above? What would 147kt Flt level wind equal to?
CAT 5?
| sullynole |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 12:52 AM |
|
|
Re: HELLO!!!
|
Quote:
Did anyone read my post above? What would 147kt Flt level wind equal to?
CAT 5?
approx. 152 mph @ surface
| k___g |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 12:53 AM |
|
|
Re: HELLO!!!
|
170 at flight level...however, that speed will not propogate down to the surface...
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 12:53 AM |
|
Re: HELLO!!!
|
but, I think the surface winds are 90% of that.....if I have the right level.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 12:55 AM |
|
|
|
Thank you redbird
|
>>> LI Phil you are definitely an angel of some sort put here to help in numerous ways..............Namaste as my tradition says
You might consider registering...then I could PM you if you need it.
Listen, I appreciate the sentiments, but I no angel. I am however very passionate about the weather and I'll try my best to help anyone on this site out, should they need it. I'm not a computer guru (that's Mike) nor a met (that's many), but I do care an immense amount about the weather and those affected by it...looking for a storm surge map...I'll try to find it...need a buoy report...same deal.
I stumbled onto this site (like I'm sure many of us did) in 1996 or 1997, and had been a passionate lurker until about a year ago, when Isabel threatened the entire east coast.
Every since then, I've been posting and have learned more in a year than I probably could have by going for a met degree (well, maybe that's a stretch). Even though I didn't post, I knew all the regulars and have since struck up many "internet" friendships.
Anyone who has ever PMed me knows I'm a little different "off the air" than on, but I always try to help. If I piss someone off, they let me know about and I work to be that much better...
I just want everyone to know how much I appreciate all your kind words and these are trying times....do not hesitate to let me know your feelings or make requests for info you may be too busy to search for...I'll make every effort to either get that info or defer to the experts if it's a true meterological question.
NOW, BACK TO IVAN!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 12:57 AM |
|
Winds
|
Don't they round up on the winds? If so that would be 1mph from Cat. 5 again.
| gonyen |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 12:59 AM |
|
Re: HELLO!!!
|
1 mph = .8689755962687 kts an hour
1 knot = 1.15078030303 mph
gonyen
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 01:01 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Winds
|
How does the NHC figure the pressure 930 and it's a CAT 5 and 155 mph, sometimes they go by the pressure and sometimes the windspeed, weird.
| Sadie |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 01:01 AM |
|
|
Prayer
|
I just wanted all those in harm's way to know I am sending prayers for their safety and the the strength of spirit to see them thru. 'Thunder' and 'Redbird' - Wakantanka ni'ci un.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 01:02 AM |
|
Re: Winds
|
992
URNT12 KNHC 142350
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 14/2319Z
B. 24 DEG 33 MIN N
86 DEG 56 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2491 M
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 354 DEG 116 KT
G. 258 DEG 19 NM
H. 928 MB
I. 13 C/ 3054 M
J. 19 C/ 2992 M
K. 16 C/ N/A
L. OPEN SW
M. C43
N. 12345/7
0. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 3609A IVAN OB 25
MAX FLT WND 147KTS NE QUAD 2039Z
Yes, but I was going off of this no. I didn't see the higher one.
| berrywr |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 01:04 AM |
|
|
Buoy Data - Ivan
|
This is the National Buoy Data Center website: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?lat1=24.2N&lon1=86.6W&dist=350&time=3
As to new location data comes in you can manually change the coordinates to represent more acurate location of the storm relative to the buoys/moorings.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 01:05 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Buoy Data - Ivan
|
Thanks I'm adding that to my favorites
| berrywr |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 01:08 AM |
|
|
|
Ivan - Doppler Radar Fixes
|
I see from the posts it's "killing" people to get more current information. In about 6 to 12 hours, you will be able to use New Orleans-Slidell Doppler Radar and Mobile to lock the center in shortly.
Does anyone have a list of available links that supply the wind data from the radar sites or is it available? And links other than base reflective and composite and velocity. Most of these radars take varying degrees of elevation and also check the winds at those levels, but darn if I can find those links! Thanks!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 01:09 AM |
Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico
|
I LIVE IN SOUTHEAST GA. FRANCES BROUGHT US SOME SERIOUS WEATHER. MUCH MORE THAN WE EXPECTED. ONLY 40-45 GUSTS BUT STILL SCAREY. ANY ONE HAVE ANY IDEAS OF WHAT WE CAN EXPECT FROM IVAN? WE ARE THINKING WE WILL NOT GET MUCH OFF OF THIS STORM. ARE WE WISHFULL THINKING?
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 01:17 AM |
|
Jeanne
|
First, let's look at Jeanne (Ivan in the next post). I've been eating crow here at FSU with this one -- I didn't figure this would have a shot, but it's defied my predictions. That said, it's got some landmasses in its way, including the Dominican. It is looking rather well organized tonight and might become a hurricane in the next day or so if it can miss Puerto Rico and the Dominican.
Track -- unless a trough well to the north of Bermuda continues to dive, it won't pick up Jeanne. All it may do is weaken the steering currents a bit, but that's not even a given. In the short term, Jeanne should continue moving just north of due west around the subtropical ridge. On this course, it might just nick the SW tip of Puerto Rico (thanks ShaggyDude!) and will likely pass over the island of Hispaniola, if only on the north side.
The ultimate track will be the key to the storm's survival, as though I don't see shear increasing too much, the favorable upper-level diffluence will likely weaken just a tad and the wind field with the system is small and tight. If it gets disrupted by the mountains of Hispaniola, it might sound a death knell for this storm -- or at least substantially weaken it -- which isn't necessarily a bad thing.
Afterward, the storm should continue moving in a general WNW fashion to the central Bahamas in about 4-5 days, where it should be near the end of the subtropical ridge. Problem is, there really won't be a trough to pick it up. Ivan looks to stall out over the central Applachians and create sort of a blocking effect -- a Rex block -- where it sits below a high and disrupts the overall steering flow. Troughs can lift up and around the block, but Jeanne will be too far south in all likelihood to feel these effects. A slow, gradual WNW movement beyond 4-5 days can be expected, not unlike Frances.
The saving grace for Florida might be Ivan, as ultimately it should begin to move out to sea in 6-7 days. The trough it leaves behind in its wake as it transitions into an extratropical system (assuming, of course, it doesn't completely die out over the mountains) might be enough to swing and pick up Jeanne, sending it to the north. With the slow forward motion expected at that time, it could be enough to spare the entire United States. However, it is way too early to make that call and right now, at 6/7 days out, it's 50/50 for either scenario. People from Cape Hatteras south to Key West need to watch this one.
Intensity should be held somewhat in check by the small wind field interacting with Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Bahamas, though the storm should reach hurricane intensity in the next day or so before then. It will have a chance at regaining some strength after leaving Hispaniola, but as it moves further into the Bahamas, cold upwelling from Frances combined with shallow waters (not as much energy) should keep intensification in check.
As an aside, the storms we have had near shore this year should help to keep anything else on the horizon from affecting the mainland with as much force just due to coastal upwelling of shallow waters, at least in the next few weeks. I don't want to sound the bell for the season after Ivan and Jeanne for the U.S., but the peak is behind us and there is only so many storms that the basin can handle in the same location. The chances after these storms of a significant U.S. impact dwindle pretty greatly -- but do *not* go away -- once they get out of the way. That doesn't diminish in any way what they have done, however.
1 day position: along the southern coast of Puerto Rico near 18.5°N and 66-66.5°W, 65-70kt hurricane
3 day position: just north of Hispaniola near 20°N 71°W 50-55kt tropical storm
5 day position: central Bahamas near 23°N 75°W 60kt tropical storm.
This isn't too far off of the NHC position and intensity, except a bit further south and a tad slower at days 4 and 5 and weaker due to interaction with landmasses.
Ivan coming up...
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 01:17 AM |
|
|
Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico
|
Well, Ivan appears to be noticeably weaker today than in past, and has the usual stairstep motion, though, it resembles a sort of slinky motion... upwards.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
I think in the second paragraph, Clark was refering to Jeanne to nick the SW tip of Puerto Rico, and not Cuba. Correct me if I'm wrong.
| Bioman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 01:19 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico
|
Buoy 42003 now up to sustained winds of 59 mph. Wave height is 36.1 feet
| Tropics Guy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 01:20 AM |
|
|
Re: Historic event?
|
I believe that we are on the threshhold of an unfortunate historical event with Ivan soon to be bearing down somewhere from N.O towards P.C.B. MY call on landfall looking at the models, current trajectory, and a possible slight NNE turn before landfall, i'm thinking Mobile bay to Pensacola . This hurricane will impact a huge area of the coast then inland hurricane force winds will move well inland in Alabama and Georgia. Then of course the possibility later of the storm stalling in the southern Applachian mountains and creating a dangerous flooding event.
The only thing we can hope for at this point is rapid weakening before landfall and/or landfall at the least populated area along that coast inorder to minimize loss of life and damage.
Here on the SE coast of Florida, we are watching Jeanne as we are "back in the cone" for the 5 day forecast. This has already been a historic hurricane season and it's not over yet.
TG
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 01:25 AM |
|
Odds and Ends
|
MBFLY...I wish you luck...i may have missed this but where are you in relation to storm surge zones/beach areas? If you are not in a storm surge zone then all you have to worry about is wind. I imagine you know what you are doing.
I am sure I am speaking to the choir on this one...but, if this storm is heading for your area...i mean you will get the eye wall....and you have plywood on your windows...you should also have a safe room away from those windows with blankets and maybe a mattress....plywood does not always work and can very easily be sucked off your windows when winds go over 140+ i.e., Hurricane Andrew...see link:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/shutters/index2.html
Btw, it is rather gusty here in SE FL tonight...hmm...good luck up there everyone.
"Jeanne, Jeanne, go away, come back another day!!" Clark can't wait for your analysis on this one....
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 01:25 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne
|
Wow you make amazing posts Clark, how do you type them so fast? Do you think the "flip" will occur soon?
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 01:26 AM |
|
Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico
|
In southeast Georgia, you should be relatively far away from the impacts of the storm. Winds might kick up a little bit, depending where in SE Georgia you are, but I wouldn't expect a large amount of rain or wind from this system. A couple of inches of rain -- mainly Friday & onward after the storm has made landfall -- and winds perhaps up to 20mph are a good bet.
Folks in SW Georgia, however, are in for winds in the 40-60mph range along with heavy rainfall. This is going to be a serious flooding event up and down the US 27/I-65 corridor, I'm afraid.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 01:27 AM |
|
Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico
|
HELLO. ANYONE THERE? THIS SITE HAS REALLY BEEN HELPFUL. I STUMBLED ON IT DURING FRANCES AND YOU ALL REALLY HELPED US HERE IN SE GA KEEP UP WITH FRANCES. WHAT CAN WE EXPECT FROM THIS STORM. I FEAR THAT IT WILL TAKE A TURN EAST. I'M A AD SPECIALTY SALES REP, WHAT DO I KNOW? THANKS
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 01:27 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico
|
>>> Well, Ivan appears to be noticeably weaker today than in past, and has the usual stairstep motion, though, it resembles a sort of slinky motion... upwards.
Shagg...dude...
There is nothing to indicate Ivan is any weaker...don't go by the SSD WV loops...his T#s are still 5.5/6.0 and he's still pumping out 140+ winds. I'd love to see him weaken, but he's undergoing another ERC so take his visual with a grain of salt.
Recon is finding some pressure rises, but also some pressure drops, and some on this board have opined he may be a CAT V (I'm not buying that...I doubt he can ever regain that status again and I sure hope not). Nevertheless, he's NOT weakening.
All reports up to this point indicate a CAT IV at landfall...and I see nothing out there to stop that from happening...good lord...
Not only is there going to be a whole world of hurt at landfall, but he's going to stall over the weekend, possibly producing 20"+ rainfall amounts...I really REALLY hope I'm wrong with this, but...and I'm not wishcasting or wavemongering here...everything points to a REALLY BAD endgame.
I'm REALLY (I like that word) praying this is not the case...we've seen Strong IV's miracuously drop to weak II's magically just before landfall...that would be the best...just don't see it yet...please let there be something to change my mind.
| Elaine H |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 01:28 AM |
|
Re: Jeanne
|
Not only types fast, but at a glance...the spelling is impeccable. I have noticed a respectful change in the tone of the board in light of the gravity of this situation. My heart and prayers go out to all that are affected by this storm.
Best wishes to all.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 01:32 AM |
|
Re: Jeanne
|
000
URNT12 KNHC 150103
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 15/0045Z
B. 24 DEG 45 MIN N
87 DEG 03 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2502 M
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 105 DEG 143 KT
G. 007 DEG 23 NM
H. 930 MB
I. 17 C/ 3047 M
J. 18 C/ 3048 M
K. 16 C/ N/A
L. OPEN W-SE
M. C43
N. 12345/7
0. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 3609A IVAN OB 33
MAX FLT WND 147KTS NE QUAD 2039Z
| dani |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 01:34 AM |
|
Re: Winds
|
See, I was thinking the exact same thing. It seems TWC uses different criteria to determine what strength the hurricane is. Any idea why that is the case?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 01:37 AM |
|
Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico
|
THANKS! THAT IS A RELIEF. ALTHOUGH WE WEREN'T FACED WITH THE BRUNT OF THE STORM, IT WAS PRETTY ROUGH. I LIVE IN JESUP GA. ABOUT 40 MILES NORTH WEST OF BRUNSWICK. WE EXPERIENCED TREMENDOUS POWER OUTAGES AND LOTS OF LOST SLEEP. MY 8 YEAR OLD IS TERRIFIED OF STORMY WEATHER AND MY HUSBAND WAS NERVOUS AS CAT. I COULD NOT IMAGINE WHAT IT WOULD HAVE BEEN LIKE HAD THE STORM BEEN A CAT. 1 WHEN IT PASSED TO THE WEST OF US. MY UNCLE STAYED IN PUNTA GORDA THRU CHARLIE SO MY HEART GOES OUT TO ALL THAT WEATHERED THAT STORM AND THE PEOPLE WHO WILL WEATHER IVAN. GOOD LUCK TO YOU ALL. YOU ARE ALL IN OUR PRAYERS!!!!
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 01:39 AM |
|
Evacuation
|
We drove from Mandeville to Shreveport today and left at 9 am. After hearing Nagin on TV encouraging everyone to leave, we figured we should leave early. The traffic was not bad, but I hear it took 7 hours to go from New Orleans to Baton Rouge later in the afternoon. We are staying at an older relative, who probably wouldn't understand my need for being on the computer all day. So, unless I find a fast-access internet hangout, I probably won't be around until after the storm. Good luck to everyone!
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 01:41 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico
|
No prob, Clark. Thanks for the informative posts.
I guess I should have clarified, as Phil has noted. What I meant to say was that Ivan's overall appearance is more ragged than in the past, having warmer cloud tops and a less symmetric eye. I'm not trying to imply a weaking trend, and am fully aware that this could very well be another phase in Ivan's evolution. It is true, that this in no way detracts the fact that this is a powerful hurricane and I certainly hope for the best for the people affected by Ivan in the future and pray for everybody's well being. I just tend to make observations just to note changes that may, or may not (<--- most likely), be significant.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 01:47 AM |
|
Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico
|
http://www.geocities.com/hurricanene/hurricanecamille.htm
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 01:47 AM |
|
Ivan
|
And now Ivan...well, what can one say about this storm? I know for one that it has pretty much cracked the Dvorak intensity scale -- not once during the regularly scheduled updates has it had a T-number higher than 6.5 (127kt/935mb), and only on a couple of occasions did it reach T7.0 (140kt/921mb) on intermediate advisories. Just goes to show you how beneficial recon can be, despite the high costs involved (into the millions of dollars).
Ivan has continued to move generally in a NNW fashion today. Most of the motion continues to be northerly, though every so often the eye jogs to the west, often times in wobbles at it tries to reform and consolidate. The storm is roughly due south of Pensacola right now along 87°W.
Right now, Ivan is starting to look a bit more asymmetric as some drier air begins to infiltrate the SW side of the storm (thanks to sullynole for the heads-up on this one). The dry air is a remnant of the trough now up by Ohio that dove down to the northern Gulf last night; it has taken time to rotate around the circulation of the storm, but it is slowly but surely infiltrating the circulation. Outer bands are beginning to impact the Florida peninsula and big bend, while the outflow from the storm reaches far up the Atlantic seaboard.
Te shortwave trough over the SE US last night lifted faster than expected, but was enough to begin to turn the storm. However, it is not enough to lift it to the shore or turn it eastward, contrary to my previous thinking. The ridge located over Texas and Oklahoma, while small in nature, is beginning to build northeastward. If it builds faster than Ivan moves, it could result in a storm that stalls out much sooner than expected -- perhaps even over the Gulf. I don't anticipate that, but it would be a disaster scenario for the New Orleans-Panama City area if so. Instead, a slower forward speed to landfall, which is still roughly 42-48 hours away I believe, is more likely.
With the change in prognostic reasoning, a change in the landfall region is necessary. The area most under the gun from a direct landfall is from Mobile eastward to Destin, in fair agreement with (if a bit east of) the NHC path. It must be noted, however, that the wind field with this storm is so large -- along the north side, the tropical storm wind field extends 235 miles to the west and 265 miles to the east -- that areas well away from the exact landfall point will receive high winds and have the potential for damage. It is feasible that much of the hurricane warning area will receive hurricane force winds, at least in gusts, with this storm. If it can be surmised, the tropical storm wind field is a bit bigger with this storm than with Frances, and we all saw what happened as it moved inland.
Assuming a landfall point near Pensacola for a moment, tropical storm force winds would affect the region from Baton Rouge, LA to just east of Perry, FL, while hurricane force winds would affect the region from Biloxi, MS to Panama City, FL. In addition, rains along the path of this storm, especially to the east of a line from Mobile, AL to Chattanooga, TN, are going to be locally heavy. Beyond landfall, rains in the central Appalachians -- already devestated by Frances -- are going to just add to the problems for residents of North Carolina and the Virginias.
Intensity -- see no reason to substantially deviate from the NHC intensity forecast except to knock it down a tad. While the pressure is remaining steady around 930mb for the time being, the eyewall is in a constant state of flux, there is greater shear ahead (if only a little bit more before it hits land), dry air is about to infiltrate the storm (if it hasn't done so already, considering the open W-SE eyewall), and the height of the 700mb surface continues to rise, now over 2500m. A reduction of about 10kt in the NHC forecasted intensities is what I feel the most likely forecast, but the course of least regret is to prepare for a high end category 4 hurricane and hope for the best. Better safe than sorry.
I hope everyone in the projected landfall swath of the NHC has made all necessary preparations, including those well inland of the system. Tropical storm force winds will begin to impact the coast tomorrow and it will be downhill from there. Best of luck to everyone and, unless things change, I think I'm going to focus on Jeanne for now...things seem to have come into better agreement tonight, the models (trending eastward) and the observations (trending westward) included.
And time to eat a bit of crow on this one...though for folks around these parts (Tallahassee), one only needs to remember what Kate did despite relatively low winds (max wind < 70mph in Tallahassee) to see what this storm may still cause well inland and well away from the center of the storm.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 01:50 AM |
|
Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico
|
Erie!!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 01:52 AM |
|
Here we go again!
|
Looks like I will have to register
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 01:53 AM |
|
Re: Ivan
|
Clark...who is your professor at FSU...I want to thank her/him for their great program...you my friend have a successful future in store.
| clueless |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 01:55 AM |
|
Re: Buoy action picking up
|
I figure - Central Florida had like 40 years without a direct hit - or something like that - I can put up with a season of rough storms if it means that I NEVER have to shovel snow agaoin - cause I know that happens every year in Indiana
|
SkeetoBite
|
| (Master of Maps) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 01:56 AM |
|
|
|
First Ivan Wind Field map
|
Note to guests and post "Frances" users:
1. These images are interpretations based on advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center.
2. Wind fields (the blue & red circles) are not concentric. Winds may vary all over the map... literally.
3. High winds extend far beyond the circles in these images, especially in feeder (rain) bands.
4. Areas in the path of this storm will experience high winds long before the hurricane arrives.
5. Your local news is the best source for emergency data and local storm updates.
Full size image (600x600 high res.) available at www.skeetobite.com
| clyde w. |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 02:00 AM |
|
Radar from Tampa
|
Check out the first major feeder band on radar from Tampa. I can only surmise that those are massive hook echos spinning offshore.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.ktbw.shtml
We had a number of tornado scares from Frances. Everyone on the east side of the landfall of Ivan needs to be alert for the added danger of tornadoes as well. Be safe everyone.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 02:01 AM |
|
Re: First Ivan Wind Field map
|
Fantastic stuff Skeet! Thanks! I know many others agree!
| dani |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 02:02 AM |
|
Re: First Ivan Wind Field map
|
I agree. His graphics help make a lot of the information easier to digest during Ivan
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 02:08 AM |
|
|
Re: Jeanne
|
Clark, question for you. What about the idea in some models that Ivan may actuall "back up" a bit down to Alabama or Georgia before he moves on out? Do you buy any of that and, if so, what affect would this have on Jeanne? Seems like that might allow a little further to the South and west?
| SoonerShawn |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 02:10 AM |
|
New Orleans?
|
I hope Ivan doesn't continue on the path he has been on the last few frames because it looks as though he would be headed right for N.O.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 02:11 AM |
|
Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico
|
I've been lurking around here for a couple of days now...I find the weather fascinating, and I'm learning so much from this site!
I don't want to interrupt the conversation, but I wanted to add my well-wishes and prayers for all in the path of this storm. Godspeed.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 02:12 AM |
|
Re: GO NOW!
|
To: MBFly:
I know people are urging you out, but I'm quite familular with your area there at Perdido Key on the Alabama/Florida border. (near the FloraBama for you Buffett fans). I was there during Fredrick in 1979. We had a brick 2-story beach house at Orange Beach right on the beach (and it's still there now encircled with condos). We boarded up with plywood sheets that were lagbolted to the brick. We lost some asphalt shingles but that was about it. Strangely, the entire interior was covered with so much sand you had to sweep it up in buckets -- so you know we took a pounding. Interestingly, the homes on the lagoon side (around by Bear Point where I assume that you are) stood up pretty well -- again, it depended on how the house was constructed. If wind blew out the garage door or patio door then the roof usually lifted off. But those that managed to keep the wind out of the house faired pretty well.
I live in Savannah now and was the only one in my community not to evacuate when Hurricane Floyd came through (I'm not one of those crazy people who simply won't leave, but I work for an electric co-op and we stay until it's obviously a imament danger and then we go to a shelter we have identified). Anyway, like you, I watched as everyone else left and endured 10 hour drives to Atlanta. However, the next morning everybody had cleared out and, if I had choosen to leave, it would have been an easy drive to anywhere -- the roads were empty except for emergency vehicles. So, you might reconsider leaving tomorrow after the masses have already evacuated -- You may not find a hotel but, with enough gas (and you should take an extra can) you can get to a safe place.
Best wishes -- that's a pretty place where you live. I always enjoy coming back.
Mark
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 02:12 AM |
|
Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico
|
I want to reiterate what Phil has been posting in this thread and others today and remind everyone to not underestimate this storm.
The concern expressed is valid -- this storm is a monster that will make landfall as a major hurricane, likely somewhere between 125-145mph. Just because this storm is not a category 5 does not mean that it will not affect many lives. Category 3 and 4 storms can and do cause great amounts of damage. Ivan has already changed countless lives in the Caribbean forever -- and sadly taken over 60 of them in Grenada, Jamaica, and Cuba alone.
The wind field on this storm is so large and the size and forward motion of it such that flooding is a major concern that this storm is not one to take lightly. Better to be overprepared than underprepared -- better safe than sorry -- and you never know what one burst of convection or one wobble in the track could do. This storm is not a point; while areas near the eye will likely be devestated, so too will many areas 100+ miles on both sides of the eye. Places well inland are going to see their property ruined from high waters; places along the shore are going to see storm surge ruin their beaches and affect their property as well.
If the wind field holds true, as shown in SkeetoBite's graphics, many, many people are going to be feeling high winds with this storm. While the majority of you understand how serious this situation is, I'm just trying to reach the minority who may feel that the concern is unwarranted. Hype in this case is unwarranted -- as SNONUT said in his latest post, this isn't going to put New Orleans underwater -- but concern and preparation is not.
This storm is forecast to make landfall in a relatively populous area with an intensity not seen in the region for many years. The damage seen from Charley is going to be spread out and multiplied over a much larger area if the intensity holds -- as it is projected to do -- while the inland concerns are only going to exacerbate what has already happened as a result of Frances and Gaston.
Take heed of all warnings out there and be prepared. This storm isn't one to mess with.
| mbfly |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 02:15 AM |
|
|
|
Re: First Ivan Wind Field map
|
Yikes.
That pretty much puts the eye of Ivan directly over my house in west Mobile near the airport. I am north of I-10, about 25-30 miles from Dauphin Island / GOM and about 12 miles west of Mobile Bay (at the highest part of Mobile) I'm well away from any flood zones, so the main concern is the wind, my house, and trees. I'll have to admit............. your map is pretty sobering though !! Wouldn't surprise me if it didn't wind up on the front page of the Mobile Register !
| Elaine H |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 02:18 AM |
|
Re: Radar from Tampa
|
Clyde...I just took a stroll outside and noted the outer bands east of Tampa and was surprised at how breezy it is considering how far from the path we are...
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 02:19 AM |
|
|
|
Re: First Ivan Wind Field map
|
>>> I'll have to admit............. your map is pretty sobering though !! Wouldn't surprise me if it didn't wind up on the front page of the Mobile Register !
mbf,
I wouldn't surprise me if this isn't the lead story in the NEW YORK TIMES when all is said and done...the mobile register probably won't be putting out an edition on Friday...
Listen to CLARK if you won't listen to me...this is deadly...top story here (1,500 miles away) so you know it means business.
I hope and pray for everyone (in a VERY LARGE SWATH) about to face Ivan...godspeed (again)
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 02:20 AM |
|
Re: Jeanne
|
Ravsar -- perhaps, but not to any large extent. Any backing up to the west of Ivan's remnant circulation would likely result in a slightly more westward motion of Jeanne, as it would be the same ridge controlling the motion of both systems. However, ultimately, I expect Ivan to clear out and recurve...it just may do it in a weird fashion.
The models aren't totally incorrect with a wobbly/erratic motion once inland, but I don't think it will result in any significant motion westward...and probably not at all back southward...and will only be short-lived. The storm essentially stalling is more likely than not, however, and inland flooding is going to be a huge concern, both for the areas that receive a lot of rain from this storm as well as regions further to the south and east as flooded rivers filter down towards the Atlantic and Gulf.
| OZ IN FL |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 02:25 AM |
|
Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico
|
Check out the models.......somethings not right on these with respect to what happens after land fall.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200409_model.html
| Rad |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 02:27 AM |
|
|
Re: IVAN
|
FRANK AND STEVE....... BE SAFE , ...RAD
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 02:28 AM |
|
Re: First Ivan Wind Field map
|
The Mobile NWS office, in their latest public statement on the storm, puts it best for everyone in the projected path of this storm:
"...THE IMPACT OF HURRICANE IVAN MAY EQUAL OR EXCEED THAT OF HURRICANE FREDERIC... "
Frederic killed one person and resulted in $2.5 billion dollars worth of damage. The Dauphin Island area was completely devestated by the storm. And now, nearly twenty-five years later, with a much greater population and property values, a storm of similar magnitude is expected to hit the same region.
This one statement says it all:
"IF THE SURGE REACHES 8 TO 10 FEET PORTIONS OF DAUPHIN ISLAND WILL BE BREACHED AS WILL PARTS OF WEST BEACH AND FORT MORGAN PENINSULA NEAR THE 3 MILE MARKER IN BALDWIN COUNTY. IN ESCAMBIA COUNTY FLORIDA PENSACOLA BEACH WILL BE BREACHED AS WILL PARTS OF NAVARRE BEACH IN SANTA ROSA AND HIGHWAY 98 BETWEEN FORT WALTON BEACH AND DESTIN IN OKALOOSA COUNTY. WATER LEVELS WITH HURRICANE IVAN WILL LIKELY BE EQUAL TO OR GREATER THAN THOSE THAT OCCURRED WITH HURRICANE FREDERIC IN 1979...WHICH IS THE BENCHMARK STORM FOR THE MOBILE AREA AND COULD BE NEAR OPAL'S LEVELS IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA. IF THE FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE IVAN IS ACCURATE...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING WILL OCCUR OVER DAUPHIN ISLAND AND OVER THE FORT MORGAN PENINSULA...WITH SERIOUS COASTAL FLOODING ALSO OCCURRING OVER GULF SHORES AND ORANGE BEACH. SIGNIFICANT BUT LESSER FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTLINE. "
Heed the warnings everyone and stay safe. If you are in the Mobile/Pensacola area right now -- including points 50 miles east and west -- please have all of your preparations completed as soon as possible and get to a shelter or other safe place (including locations such as Arkansas, Texas, and further west). Hotels in Louisiana are hard to come by -- if not completely booked -- meaning the roads are going to be clogged for many miles. The sooner you can get out, the better. Play it safe with this one -- I cannot emphasize that enough.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 02:30 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico
|
OZ,
they might not be depicting it well graphically, but they are showing the "stalling" of Ivan...as I said earlier, this is not just one for the GOMers, but one for the ages...might approach Camille/Allison (2001) flooding...HORRIBLE...anyone from New Orleans to Maine needs to be watching this one carefully!
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 02:32 AM |
|
Re: First Ivan Wind Field map
|
MBFLY...sounds like you will be ok since you are not in a storm surge zone...i thought you were on the beach or a barrier island. I imagine you and all the folks in Mobile/Pensacola area are in for a ride like no other. Just remember to prepare a safe room just in case. There are plenty of links on the net about preparing a safe room in houses.
| Bruce |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 02:34 AM |
|
Re: First Ivan Wind Field map
|
Check out CNNs website. Must have real player to view. Titled "Doomsday View". Would make me want to leave New Orleans area.
| OZ IN FL |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 02:35 AM |
|
Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico
|
Phil,
Phew!! for a minute there I thought they were thinking it would chuck a u'ey. Would not have been pretty.
Mind your heads and prayers for all.
Watched what cyclone Tracey did back home and these are nothing to mess with.
RJ
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 02:35 AM |
|
I need to vent a little....
|
Sorry for the OT post, but I just saw a weather forecast on TV I couldn't believe.
First, in NJ, we are going to get off easy compared to everyone else.
I don't know if this guy (never saw him before) was a met, or a map reader (term used by my friends who read maps on TWC, but never said anything else), but made statements I feel he shouldn't have made.
Our situation is this....There is a cold front approaching that is expected to stall near my area. He stated that that would save us from any impact from Ivan. If you throw a ton of moisture with PWATS probably well over 2 inches on top of a frontal boundary with an onshore flow, that spells a good chance of heavy rain. The GFS gives us (CPC also) 4 or 5 inches through 5 days. That'll be 1/4 what other areas get, but that is not my point.
I have seen tropical systems interact with frontal boundaries up here. I think it was Floyd that dumped 4.00" on me, but over 12" in N.E. Md. The front was right over them.
He probably noticed that POPS out that far are only 50% not understanding that in that time range, higher POPS are not given.
He may well end up being right. But it is illogical and maybe irresponsible to say something like that this far out, especially when the GFS and QPF forecast right now says otherwise.
If WB is going to have a weatherman.......I can't even finish that thought.
Sorry for the rant, and OT, but it did help. My half human side can be a real pain sometimes.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 02:35 AM |
|
Re: Where...........
|
To: lcdrgas
I know people are urging you out, but I'm quite familular with your area there at Perdido Key on the Alabama/Florida border. (near the FloraBama for you Buffett fans). I was there during Fredrick in 1979. We had a brick 2-story beach house at Orange Beach right on the beach (and it's still there now encircled with condos). We boarded up with plywood sheets that were lagbolted to the brick. We lost some asphalt shingles but that was about it. Strangely, the entire interior was covered with so much sand you had to sweep it up in buckets -- so you know we took a pounding. Interestingly, the homes on the lagoon side (around by Bear Point where I assume that you are) stood up pretty well -- again, it depended on how the house was constructed. If wind blew out the garage door or patio door then the roof usually lifted off. But those that managed to keep the wind out of the house faired pretty well.
I live in Savannah now and was the only one in my community not to evacuate when Hurricane Floyd came through (I'm not one of those crazy people who simply won't leave, but I work for an electric co-op and we stay until it's obviously a imament danger and then we go to a shelter we have identified). Anyway, like you, I watched as everyone else left and endured 10 hour drives to Atlanta. However, the next morning everybody had cleared out and, if I had choosen to leave, it would have been an easy drive to anywhere -- the roads were empty except for emergency vehicles. So, you might reconsider leaving tomorrow after the masses have already evacuated -- You may not find a hotel but, with enough gas (and you should take an extra can) you can get to a safe place.
Best wishes -- that's a pretty place where you live. I always enjoy coming back.
Mark
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 02:36 AM |
|
Frank P .... decisions ... decisions
|
well I finally completed my hurricane preps.. .took only about 10 hours.... for the first time in my life I am seriously considering evacuating.... Camille, Fredrick, Elena, Georges... rode em out out.... this is such a tough decision for me....
I will make my decision before 6 am.... anyone's input on forecast track and intensity would be a great aid to me in this decision process.... you guys provide valuable information on this board and I appreciate it...
I'm not going to go if I am really confident of a Mobile to east hit... I have not been paying attention to the actual weather the last 10 hours due to the house preps..... If it is going to hit between Pascagoula and Mobile I am going more inland to a friends business building...
However, if I have any doubt as to where this thing is going, ie, a hit west of Pascagoula, then as much as I hate it, we will evacuate, due to pressure from kids and other relatives... we have friends in Jackson Ms who have offer us their guest house to ride out the storm...
although I'm 20 feet above sea level on the beach, the thought of unobstructed 140+ winds coming right off the beach with accompanying tidal surge makes me want to puke...
gotta run for a minute but will be monitoring the situation all night....
Frank P
|
SkeetoBite
|
| (Master of Maps) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 02:36 AM |
|
|
|
Re: First Ivan Wind Field map
|
Quote:
>>> I'll have to admit............. your map is pretty sobering though !! Wouldn't surprise me if it didn't wind up on the front page of the Mobile Register !
mbf,
I wouldn't surprise me if this isn't the lead story in the NEW YORK TIMES when all is said and done...the mobile register probably won't be putting out an edition on Friday...
Listen to CLARK if you won't listen to me...this is deadly...top story here (1,500 miles away) so you know it means business.
I hope and pray for everyone (in a VERY LARGE SWATH) about to face Ivan...godspeed (again)
Let's see. Simple stuff. Frances was huge. But sat off the coast for awhile as a CAT 2. Let's reason together that Ivan is HUGE and DANGEROUS and a MAJOR hurricane at CAT 4 and coming to a neighborhood near you very soon.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 02:36 AM |
|
Re: Hurricane Warnings up from Grand Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL and Puerto Rico
|
reminds me of 1979 Huricane David hit and ran up the east coast then Frederick up into the Gulf. almost around the same dates as Frances and Ivan too.
|
SkeetoBite
|
| (Master of Maps) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 02:37 AM |
|
|
|
Re: First Ivan Wind Field map
|
Sorry. That was a damn big post...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 02:37 AM |
|
Re: GO NOW!
|
Been lurking for days.. first post. Will probably register for the next one
I suggest taking back roads like US highways instead of interstates if you are evacuating. I left for Frances and tried the Turnpike - I75 way. It took about 4hrs to go 40 miles. The gas lines were 30 cars long the turnpike. We were going about 10-15mph. I got off of 75 and took a two lane highway north. I was able to do 60mph and barely saw anyone. There was also gas at every station I passed with out lines.
Take care of yourselves.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 02:39 AM |
|
Re: Frank P .... decisions ... decisions
|
Good luck and Godspeed in whatever you decide. If you wait until 6 AM, you will have the benefit of 2 more model runs. It is too close to call as far as I am concerned. Discretion is the better part of valor. Just be safe, no matter what you decide.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 02:39 AM |
|
|
|
Re: I need to vent a little....
|
>>> My half human side can be a real pain sometimes.
As Chief Science Officer, I commend your logic...(Captain Kirk...Stardate unknown)
Once again, listen to these guys...they know their s--t. This is going to be very bad and I can only hope all in it's way are listening...look what Ivan has already done in his path...
Enuf from me...pay attenion to those who know more than I do...
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 02:40 AM |
|
Re: I need to vent a little....
|
Hype can be a very, very bad thing. Telling people to be prepared and that the chance for some rainfall is there, but don't go bonkers...and that goes for both underdoing and overdoing it as well. Make sure people know what they need to know and make sure they are prepared -- overprepared if anything -- but not needlessly scare the general public. People read these statements and take them as doomsday scenarios, whether intended as such or not. Uncertainty is high out to 4-5 days, meaning any forecast should be tempered yet still highlight that there might be a chance of increased rainfall (not saying there will be 5-10" mind you, but the chance for increased rains). This isn't directed at anyone, but is just moreso a rant of my own to follow up on yours.
| Mongo |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 02:42 AM |
|
Shades of Opal...
|
In 1995 Opal ran through the Smoky Mountain area and produced very damaging floods. Most of the roads around Cades Cove were completely washed out, as were many other mountain roads. If I recall, Opal was moving along at about 20 mph (it was still a hurricane when it came through Atlanta in the middle of the night) and still caused massive flooding. Should Ivan stall in that area as it is predicted to, I would imagine the floods in the mountains could be much worse than what happened with Opal.
Good luck to all in the path of this storm.
Brian
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 02:42 AM |
|
Re: Frank P .... decisions ... decisions
|
Frank -- I don't think the landfall will be west of Pascagoula, but the eye is so large and the wind field so strong and expansive you might want to strongly consider evacuating anyway. Take into account where the shelters are and how sturdy your place is, but do consider leaving. You may have seen worse nearby, but it's best not to leave things to chance as much as possible.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 02:48 AM |
|
Re: I need to vent a little....
|
I agree. I would not hype that forecast. I just don't think he should have said there will be no effect either. He should have left it alone for a while longer.
The NWS has the right idea-no enhanced wording, but mention of RW and TRW's. The DC and PHL offices handled this much better.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 02:48 AM |
|
Re: GO NOW!
|
I will reiterate what HookD said as well. U.S. roads, once upon a time, were the backbone of our automotive society as well as the roads that kept the nation moving economically and industrially. They may not be able to handle as many cars as an interstate, but are often far less traveled and can provide a nice alternative in a bad situation...they are often far more scenic than the interstate yet allow you to get out faster to a safer location than a clogged interstate will.
Routes heading north out of the Gulf coast include U.S. 45, U.S. 43 (Alabama), U.S. 31, U.S. 29, U.S. 231, U.S. 331 (last four Florida-->Alabama), U.S. 49, U.S. 51 (last two Mississippi), and U.S. 61/65 (Louisiana). Head east or west just a bit on U.S. 98 or U.S. 90 (or, in portions of the coastal area, U.S. 84) to get to one of these roads if not nearby.
Also consider state roads in larger locales, but always carry a map. One of the smartest purchases you can make is the $5 Rand McNally atlas at Wal-Mart. It's not only handy in times like this, but in planning road trips as well. Plus, you can't beat the price. By taking U.S./state highways, you'll not only reduce the stress and time to evacuate for yourself, but for others who do stick to the interstates as well.
| Kent |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 02:49 AM |
|
Re: Frank P .... decisions ... decisions
|
I just read the link that someone posted about Camille. My Gosh I would leave for sure! Did anyone see the pictures in that link? Hotels were literally swept clean to the foundations! Please don't take any unnecessary chances...especially if you have children. They don't have a choice. Whoever posted that link really made a good case for evacuating. Here is the link again:
http://www.geocities.com/hurricanene/hurricanecamille.htm
Godspeed my neighbors to the Northwest.
| belleami |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 02:49 AM |
|
|
|
Re: First Ivan Wind Field map
|
Skeetobite said,
Quote:
Sorry. That was a damn big post...
Well, it's a damn big storm
Susie
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 02:50 AM |
|
|
|
Re: I need to vent a little....
|
Made a reply but it got eaten...now the 11:00 is out and I don't think anymore can be said that hasn't been said.
He is STILL at 140mph...might get stronger.
Frank...GO!
| Kdubs |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 02:50 AM |
|
|
New Advisory is Out - Pressure Rising
|
New Advisory is available on all the sites.
Sorry for the previous long post, StormHound
| Kdubs |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 02:51 AM |
|
|
|
Sorry - Here's the discussion too *DELETED*
|
Post deleted by Kdubs
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 02:55 AM |
|
Re: Frank P .... decisions ... decisions
|
The track is alot alike,can history repeat?
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 02:58 AM |
|
Re: Frank P .... decisions ... decisions
|
Frank..I remember where you live in previous posts. If I were in your situation...and I had family with me...I would go to the business b/c of the family. I don't think everyone understands the significance of being on the left side of the storm on the coast and lower storm surge. I know my family would look at the water....look at the TV and the storm coming our way....and then look at me and say "are you crazy?"
| StormHound |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 02:59 AM |
|
Re: Sorry - Here's the discussion too
|
Guys, please don't post the advisories or discussions. We all know where to find them. A little excerpt with some commentary is ok, but the whole advisory just sucks up reading space.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 03:01 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Sorry - Here's the discussion too
|
SH,
agreed at this point we know they're available virtually everywhere, including about 7 links already on this site.
You got any thoughts at this point...and what's it like in Orlando?
| Kdubs |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 03:04 AM |
|
|
My thoughts for the day
|
Is there anyone familiar with New Orleans enough to tell what the situation is there? Evacuations, sea level, hurricane levies, etc?
Also, Phil, anyway you could post SLOSH maps for NoLa, Biloxi, Movile, Pensacola?
The current buoy readings are also rather amazing. Buoy 42003 hasn't reported data in over 2 hours. Buoy GDIL1 (near New Orleans) has gusts up to 23 kts. Buoy SGOF1 (near Apalachicola, FL) has gusts up to 32 kts.
When I first started seriously watching Ivan, I was so tired from going through the eye of Charley and the NE side of Frances. When it passed over Grenada, I told me family that I felt it would go to New Orleans. I was about to post that thought on this site when the track changed to bring the eye over Orlando, so I decided to keep my opinion to myself. However, it appears that the hunch I had a week ago was more than just a hunch. Having gone through Charley as a Cat 2, I understand what it feels like. I can only imagine what Port Charlotte, Sanibel Island, Fort Myers, Punta Gorda and all the other towns on the SWFL coast went through before Charley made it to S Orlando. Please heed the advice of the authorities. If you need convincing, look at the damage photos from Sanibel and Port Charlotte. Read the reports of people who had to hold their doors in their place because their storm shutters were ripped off. Read about the people in Jamaica who had to move from one shelter to the next in the brunt of the storm because their shelter blew away from around them. We lose too many people every year as it is to these monster freight trains that we like to call hurricanes. There is nothing wimpy about evacuating. You will not be accused of being a "girlie man."
My prayers are with all of you in the storms path and swath. Don't underestimate the power of the storm, but also don't underestimate the power of the One who controls it all.
God Bless, Kyle
| Bioman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 03:06 AM |
|
|
|
Re: My thoughts for the day
|
looks like we lost buoy 42003. between the 36 foot waves and 75 mph wind i think its done
| Elaine H |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 03:06 AM |
|
Re: My thoughts for the day
|
Well many hours to go...all in the path....get in a safe place. Good luck and good night.
| StormHound |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 03:10 AM |
|
Re: Sorry - Here's the discussion too
|
I don't know that there's much to add at this point. I think Ivan will get a bit east of the forecast track, but it won't matter much. Unless the intensity gods come up with a surprise decrease, this may be the most destructive hurricane ever.
Orlando has been overcast all day, with some occasional rain. I expect the same for tomorrow.
| Kdubs |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 03:11 AM |
|
|
|
Re: My thoughts for the day
|
New report just in from Buoy 42003.
Sustained wind speed up to 54.4 kts.
Gusting up to 71.9 kts (83mph).
Pressure continues to fall.
| tenavilla |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 03:12 AM |
|
Re: First Ivan Wind Field map
|
With respect to the Ivan - Frances comparison, I thought the advisory said that tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles for Ivan?
| sullynole |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 03:13 AM |
|
|
|
Re: buoy 42003
|
for those of you who can't get the latest report from that buoy...
Conditions at 42003 as of
(9:50 pm CDT on 09/14/2004)
Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 110 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 54.4 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 71.9 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 35.8 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 13 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.38 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.02 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.7 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.7 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 79.3 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 86.0 °F
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 03:15 AM |
|
|
|
Re: My thoughts for the day
|
These aren't storm surge or SLOSH models, per se, but it should give you a fairly representative idea...Once this f---er is over, I plan on gathering this info for easy dissemination...unfortunately this needs to do for now...
http://www.csc.noaa.gov/products/alabama/htm/hssra.htm
http://www.angelfire.com/ms3/n5ycn/camille.html
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2002/of02-206/phy-environment/recent-hurricanes.html
http://www.geocities.com/hurricanene/hurricaneopal.htm
| StormHound |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 03:15 AM |
|
Re: Sorry - Here's the discussion too
|
Oh, and sorry Phil for jumping in on your moderation there. I'm a bit cranky this evening, not very patient.
| Girlnascar |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 03:15 AM |
|
|
Re: Frank P .... decisions ... decisions
|
To all on here that helped Central Florida through Charley. I began visiting this site when Charley came knocking on my door. This site helped me get through the storm...until I lost power at 9:30 p.m just as "The Eye" passed over my house. I have lived in Florida since 1980 and had never been through a "Cane" before, even having lived in several other choice Cities on the Eastern side of Florida have been lucky enough not to have been in any path until Charley. I wished I had left for Charley but didn't. Charley kicked Central Florida's butt good. I don't care that it only took 3 hrs to get the eye through here, it was the most terrifying experience of my life because of the unknowing and the eventual destruction of property and lives, but at the same time exciting in way I am not sure I understand yet. But when Frances creeped up the Coast, I fled for Georgia. Mistake on my part, nothing was left at my home after Charley for Frances to destroy!!! Charley cleared the path for Frances, Ivan and possibly Jeanne. The traffic on I-75 myself and my eleven old endured to get out of here was more life threatening in the short and long runs than the storm was. I will have to say even though Charley was twice as small as the others in size it was like a bomb exploded over this part of Florida. I can't imagine the situation where you are, but nonetheless can feel your pain, and maybe possibly the excitement of the approaching Ivan. Whatever you decide to go or leave just remember it was your decision and you and your loved ones if any will have to live with the consequences before and after it hits. Take care. Thanks. I just registered today by the way. For whatever its worth.!!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 03:16 AM |
|
Re: My thoughts for the day
|
Whats the difference between a person who leaves and returns to no home and the person that leaves and the storm misses?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 03:19 AM |
|
|
|
Re: My thoughts for the day
|
>>> Whats the difference between a person who leaves and returns to no home and the person that leaves and the storm misses?
I don't know where you're going with this spook but you BETTER TREAD LIGHTLY!
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 03:20 AM |
|
Note on Ivan
|
Ivan, in it's lifetime, spent a whopping 60 hours at category 5 status. For comparison, Mitch spent 36 hours there and Isabel spent 54 hours there. The only one that beat it that I could find is Allen at 72 hours. In addition, Ivan has spent an amazing 183 hours (and counting) at category 4 or higher status throughout it's lifetime. I'm not going to go back and see if another storm can top that, but I would tend to doubt it.
With Ivan projected to make landfall as a category 3/4, it's something to keep in mind. This storm had little mercy on the islands it's gone past to date.
|
SkeetoBite
|
| (Master of Maps) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 03:20 AM |
|
|
|
Re: First Ivan Wind Field map
|
Quote:
With respect to the Ivan - Frances comparison, I thought the advisory said that tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles for Ivan?
The images in the comparison are dated (above each storm). I'll make a new comparison soon. Anyone with specific storms they want included should PM me
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 03:22 AM |
|
Re: My thoughts for the day
|
Both played it smart and safe, and considering the unpredictable nature of these storms, that's all you can do and hope for in a situation like this. If that's supposed to be a joke...it's probably best left unsaid.
|
SkeetoBite
|
| (Master of Maps) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 03:24 AM |
|
|
|
Re: My thoughts for the day
|
Quote:
Whats the difference between a person who leaves and returns to no home and the person that leaves and the storm misses?
One gets to keep all his junk?
Their zip codes?
| RevUp |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 03:26 AM |
|
Re: My thoughts for the day
|
New thread folks.
| Girlnascar |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 03:29 AM |
|
|
|
Re: My thoughts for the day
|
My comments weren't meant to strike up a debate/argument over saving one's life. Only a personal rationale over whether to stay or go.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 15 2004 03:59 AM |
|
Re: Situation in New Orleans
|
Saw your question about the situation in N. O. I am here and the city is taking this very seriously. About 1/2 of the city has or is evacuating. There was a run on gas last night and today and the interstates were crammed with cars leaving all day. Now the traffic is clearing up so it is getting easier to get out but there are still a lot of people hitting the road. Most stores have closed but you can still get supplies at local gas tations, etc. All national chain stores have closed. The people that are staying are breathing easier now because the storm looks to be going more to the east. I know someone who evacuated from Dauphin Island to here. We are currently expecting winds to 50mph by evening tomorrow and then possibly to hurricane force (max) by midnight Thurs to 6am Thurs (roughly). The city is quiet by our standards but the bars are full (hey its the Big Easy). They are telling us here that the window to leave the city will probably close by around noon tomorrow. Hope this helps. Good Luck to all.