MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 08:56 PM |
Ivan Landfalls Again. Jeanne on the Move
|
Tropical Storm Ivan has made landfall... again... on the Lousiana coastline near the Texas border. It's expected to meander and be a major rain producer for Texas. There is a chance Ivan will move back into the Gulf again like a bad horror flick.
This is a map based of the National Hurricane Center, do not focus on the center of the track errors may be large
Thanks Skeetobite
Jeanne, the one Florida is concerned with, is on the high end of the Category 2 scale and has made it's move, now toward the west northwest. The tremendous ridge to the north of it should keep it moving west, and maybe more southward as time goes on. The new 5PM Track takes it deeper into Florida, and landfalling near where Frances did. I still expect it (as of now) to be no higher than category 2 when it makes landfall, but the storm may get to Category 3 in the water before then. Therefore there is a chance it that Jeanne may be another major hurricane landfalling in Florida (lets hope not).
The forecast track is very uncertain, since the National Hurricane Center is suggesting not to focus on the exact track (which I agree, especially out more than 36 hours) I will as well.
Event Related Links
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
All Current Hurricane Local Statements
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time
Karl Models -- This image animated over time
Lisa Models -- This image animated over time
Jeanne Sphagehtti Model from BoatUS/Hurricane Alley
Ivan Plots from Weather Underground
Jeanne Plots from Weather Underground
Jeanne Satelllite Image with track/radar Overlays
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Jacksonville.
Melbourne
General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps
Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
| Redbird |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 08:57 PM |
|
Re: Ivan Landfalls Again. Jeanne on the Move
|
Ivan is reminding me of that freak on Friday the 13th who just could not be terminated.................all we need is for ivan to pick up his hat and come back to us.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 09:07 PM |
|
Re: Ivan Landfalls Again. Jeanne on the Move
|
Jeanne...Palm bay....ugh
| heidib |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 09:23 PM |
|
Re: Ivan Landfalls Again. Jeanne on the Move
|
Hi all. I have been lurking since before Frances and finally registered. Went without electricity for 11 days after Frances, so not looking forward to this weekend. You guys have been such a fantastic source of information. Have heard that gas stations and grocery stores around here already have long lines. Glad everyone is taking this seriously.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 09:29 PM |
Re: Ivan Landfalls Again. Jeanne on the Move
|
Enough is enough!!!! I have been on your website ever since Frances, checking again and again.And again and again. I'm getting married in FWB next month and Frances has already KO'd my honeymoon spot, Ivan nearly ruined my wedding so Im glued to your site for the latest info. I don't know how you guys handle this!
GO AWAY IVAN, GET LOST JEANNE!!!
You guys and gals have been a FANTASTIC source of info...stay safe and keep up the good work!!
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 09:34 PM |
|
|
Same time, same place, same cane channel???
|
Another borderline cat2/3 storm on a Saturday night near Stuart??? Can it be?? Is this batman or would that be catwoman?
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 09:39 PM |
|
Re: Same time, same place, same cane channel???
|
Same bat time, same bat channel, same bat cave, just same everything...
like Frances all over again for Florida, except perhaps, heavens forbid, a little stronger... without the GOM touch
I sure am glad I cancelled my Disney World Vacation scheduled for Sat through Thur of next week...
| Redbird |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 09:44 PM |
|
Re: Same time, same place, same cane channel???
|
Yup SSDD also sums it up.........................oh and all the family togetherness induced by being secluded in the house does wear thin.................
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 09:45 PM |
|
|
Crow Munching Forecast
|
I posted this in the last thread, but I wanted to throw it out here to anyone who might not have seen it and who might like a laugh at my expense...
Ok, here it is. Please keep in mind that I am not a met, so take this forecast with a grain of salt (which is how I like my crow).
Jeanne will continue on her westward trek towards the Bahamas and Florida for the next 36 hours or so, tracking across Great Abaco Island. During this time, she will strengthen from a CAT II to a CAT III, perhaps getting as strong as 130 mph sustained. After 36 hours, the ridge will be relaxed enough to permit a WNW, then NW turn. By 36 hours, Florida will begin to feel the first effects from Jeanne. This will be approximately 8 am on Saturday morning.
Jeanne will then take the NW trek towards Florida, landfalling somewhere between Ft. Pierce and Cocoa Beach as a CAT III (~125 MPH winds) Sunday morning between 8 and 12 noon. She will go inland, but will begin making a NNW turn while inland; Jeanne will maintain hurricane force winds throughout her trek up the coast line, during which time she will head north and then NNE and exit Florida near the FL/GA border...winds at this time will still be >74, still a minimal hurricane. She will not remain over Florida for more than four hours...
Once in the open Atlantic, Jeanne will increase in forward speed and regain CAT II status on a track that will take her towards the Outer Banks. She will landfall a second time near Cape Lookout with 100 MPH winds, just barely missing Cape Fear on her way. I would expect this to be midday on Monday. She will continue to hug the coast just offshore of the Delmarva and Cape May, NJ as a minimal hurricane. This should be by Monday evening. She will then take a more easterly trek and pass just south of Montauk Point Tuesday morning, still a CAT I, finally barely narrowly missing Cape Cod Tuesday night.
Florida may take quite a whallop as may the Outer Banks, but the main threat will be heavy rains in areas that don't need it, causing serious flooding, and gales all the way up the coast from Cape May through Cape Cod. Surge could be a problem for Florida, but not really a factor anywhere else, but high seas (15'+ waves in some places) will further erode beaches.
-----------------------------------------
Well, there you have it. My first "real" stab at a forecast. It's alot closer to me than I would like it, so that's why it will probably be wrong! I need some new crow recipies which I am sure to get with this one.
Everyone stay safe and pay close attention to the NHC forecasts...they're the only ones to trust...all others should be taken in conjunction with the NHC's.
| Florida Nurse |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 09:48 PM |
|
|
Re: Ivan Landfalls Again. Jeanne on the Move
|
She's a lot larger than she was even a few hours ago. Our EOC was meeting today. They will probably activate tomorrow if this forecast stays true. Another exciting weekend for everyone........
---Kelly W.
| cjzydeco |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 09:54 PM |
|
|
Re: Ivan Landfalls Again. Jeanne on the Move
|
I agree with you. Her cloud bands extend out much farther this afternoon than they did this morning. She looks like she's ready to take a much bigger whack at Florida!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 09:57 PM |
Re: Crow Munching Forecast
|
FOUR Hours...???
ONLY?
Better check that Phil....that's over 30 mph....
sc
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 10:00 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Crow Munching Forecast
|
That's why it's a crow munching forecast...
I may be a couple hours off, but I think the trof that's making mischief in the middle of the country is come by and pick Jeanne up and race her up the coastline...
I'll probably be wrong.
| FireAng85 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 10:01 PM |
|
Re: Ivan Landfalls Again. Jeanne on the Move
|
Looks like another long weekend at the fire station. My husband is on vacation and is staying home with the kids for this one. I just happen to be on duty Sunday! Lucky me. I'm getting off work in the morning and going home to help my husband put the plywood BACK UP. At least I left them on the ground next to the windows and don't have to trudge them all around the the house to put them back up. Here in Orange Co, we haven't gotten any direction from our fearless leaders yet. I just hope they don't make us drive to work in it like they did with Frances. That was the dumbest thing............
Good Luck everyone! I just happen to live in Sorrento and it looks like the eye should go right over my house.
It will probably finish the trees off that Frances left standing. Oh well, what can I do? Just ride it out.
| Redbird |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 10:01 PM |
|
Re: Crow Munching Forecast
|
You could be right..................at least u stick to your story.
| Fletch |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 10:05 PM |
|
Re: Crow Munching Forecast
|
It's Groundhog day again. Gas lines have started, cars pulling into Lowes and Home Depot. How much more can we take here in FL. First a left hook, then a right hook, then a left cross, then another right hook. I'm worried about the late October uppercut through the Keys.
| Fletch |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 10:08 PM |
|
Re: Ivan Landfalls Again. Jeanne on the Move
|
Quote:
Looks like another long weekend at the fire station. My husband is on vacation and is staying home with the kids for this one. I just happen to be on duty Sunday! Lucky me. I'm getting off work in the morning and going home to help my husband put the plywood BACK UP. At least I left them on the ground next to the windows and don't have to trudge them all around the the house to put them back up. Here in Orange Co, we haven't gotten any direction from our fearless leaders yet. I just hope they don't make us drive to work in it like they did with Frances. That was the dumbest thing............
Good Luck everyone! I just happen to live in Sorrento and it looks like the eye should go right over my house.
It will probably finish the trees off that Frances left standing. Oh well, what can I do? Just ride it out.
Hey Angie, thanks for the work that you do. Without you and people like you, Florida wouldn't be able to survive these things.
| Terri |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 10:11 PM |
|
|
Re: Same time, same place, same cane channel???
|
Quote:
Same bat time, same bat channel, same bat cave, just same everything...
like Frances all over again for Florida, except perhaps, heavens forbid, a little stronger... without the GOM touch
I sure am glad I cancelled my Disney World Vacation scheduled for Sat through Thur of next week...
I couldn't help but chuckle when I heard the official weather forecast for the Georgia coast on Monday: Warm weather and "windy" conditions." That's got to be...um... a bit of an understatement. Even though I do live on a small island, I won't evacuate for a Category 1.
One thing is for sure, Frank. I know what we Georgians will be praying for at Mass this weekend, a MISS. To my neighbors in Florida, I'm so sorry you'll be going through yet another hurricane. You will all be in my prayers, as well.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 10:24 PM |
|
|
|
Official NWS Forecast for Palm Beach County
|
Saturday:
Mostly cloudy and windy. Isolated thunderstorms. Chance of showers in the morning then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 80s. Northwest winds increasing to 25 to 30 mph with gusts to around 55 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Saturday Night:
Cloudy. Strong winds. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s inland to the lower 70s at the coast. Northeast winds 50 to 55 mph with gusts to 80 mph possible. Chance of rain 70 percent.
| mlamay |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 10:28 PM |
|
Re: Same time, same place, same cane channel???
|
I would imagine that you guys in GA would be ok. The only thing that would happen is that you wouldn't be able to get to Tybee Is.
As for my not so good forcast; I am not expecting that ridge to move so quickly and not pick Jeanne up until it is over West/ Central FL or perhaps even out in the Gulf. I think Jeanne's second landfall will be in the big bend area. Just like Frances
Hey why not huh?
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 10:30 PM |
|
|
Re: Same time, same place, same cane channel???
|
Well it looks like with the movement and building of the ridge to the north and west of Jeanne a turn off the coast of Florida is all but eliminated. Now it will depend on how far south it builds and how long it stays there. I can see Jeanne tracking southwestward a bit as she approaches the coast due to that ridge. Also, the models have had a tough time forecasting the placement and strength of these highs all season. Undercalling them for the most part. Looks like this will be no different.
| RedingtonBeachGuy |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 10:35 PM |
|
Richie..
|
quick question.. if Jeanne stays on a west track thru Florida towards Tampa, do you forsee that our area will have winds higher than tropical force? Best I read right now, the most we might see over here is 75 mph winds no matter where she goes in. Is that about right based on the current forcast?
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 10:36 PM |
|
Models trending south
|
Well, if it is my time for a storm then so be it! Here is the 18Z GFS:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_850_060m.gif
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 10:46 PM |
|
|
Re: Crow Munching Forecast
|
Where did you get crow pie from, I've never heard that before? Anyway Jeanne looks very strong, the distinct eye with the very strong outflow band, Hugo had that feature. At least we have some agreement with the model's for the general path, as opposed to every model going to a different place. The strong shear forecasted to come about never did because the GFDL shear forecasted model was initialized with GFS data which is having some problems this year but then again there's always next year. So the shear really won't have to much of an affect if any at all and will prob recurve before hitting Florida but does it really matter because you'll be in the ring of hurricane force winds so the damage is done.
Ivan's back from the dead and has some banding and eye features but not a very good CDO. The convection is sparse and cloud cover is poor but still causing some very heavy rain. The steering current is collasping and will most likely pull down south after it hits into the Texas/La border but that I'm not to sure because the strength of the ridge is uncertain. That's about it folks; everyone has been doing an great job, keep it up!
| sunshinemamax2 |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 10:52 PM |
|
Good grief!
|
Okay, I give in, I'll post. Been lurking since Charley (completely fascinated by it since it did quite a number on our neighborhood and I hadn't seen a hurricane since Bob in '91 up in LI at the time) and as each storm forms and does it's strange thing this season I'm just watching in awe and coming back here day after day to read up on all of the fantastic posts.
I will probably continue to lurk, but considering it looks like we may be affected (yet again!) by Jeanne AND we're driving to TX for a wedding at the beginning of the week, I'm watching everything very closely right now & felt the need to post and give a thumbs up to everyone here.
| SoonerShawn |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 10:53 PM |
|
Another One Of My Weird Questions
|
It looks like Ivan has come up a little more north and east of where it was suppose to. The approaching front may be having a slight effect on him but it won't be much as the high pressure behind it is quickly building in from what the local mets are saying. Now the high pressure is what is forecasted to start sending Ivan back to the SW in time.
Here is my question.
Is it possible that the high starts to push him back SW from the farther east location? If that were to happen than he would go maybe south of Galveston and back out into the water. I know it's a stupid question but I thought of it from just looking at the latest radar which looks like he is moving more north than forecasted.
By the way, he does look like he is actually building more storms around the center as he is getting further inland.
P.S.
Please be gentle in your response...lol
| FreakedInFlorida |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 11:00 PM |
|
Re: Crow Munching Forecast
|
Gas lines are starting to get crowded. Banks were really lining up at drive thrus. Lot of people headed out to the turnpike and Home Depot as well. WalMart is just a mob scene here in Fort Pierce. I can't believe we are getting this again.
On another note, is it just wishful thinking on my part or does the GEOS satellite that shows the hurricane path look as though it's headed more NW than anything else? It certainly doesn't seem to be following the west forecast track.
| Tropicbird |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 11:06 PM |
|
Re: Good grief!
|
OK, this storm seems a little more dicey for deep southern FL-the TV mets aren't as positive it's definently going N of us than they were with Frances, especially since there seems this season to be a trend of highs building in stronger than the models predict. My question: is there any chance that this storm will bomb out and get stronger than a Cat 3? Not that a 3 is anything to sneeze at, but a 4 would be so much worse.
I tried ignoring Jeanne all week but she wouldn't go away...
PS. this board rules!
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 11:11 PM |
|
Re: Models trending south
|
I just checked the water temps for Lake Okeechobee and it's in the low '80's. If Jeanne makes landfall and goes across Lake Okeechobee, the inland counties may get a bigger wallop than what we're looking at right now. I don't like that scenario at all. Not that I like any of them, but this one worries me more than the others.
You know what's weird about this whole thing? It's almost as if we've gotten used to being a target. I mean, how many hurricanes that land as a Cat III does it take to make it feel "normal"?
Also, talked to my brother's girlfriend who works at TWC (she's a product manager for Notify!) and she said that she knows that someone from her area (internet services) is headed to Florida, and from she has learned in the last couple of weeks since she started there is that when one of those people go, it's a sure bet that an OCM is not far behind....
Wouldn't you hate to be Jeb Bush right now? Egads. This storm even took HIM by surprise, as the reporters were the ones that told him Jeanne was heading our way. So, where's his "weather guru", Ben Nelson? He wasn't giving Jeb a "heads up" on Jeanne? As The Donald would say,
"YOU'RE FIRED."
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 11:12 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Another One Of My Weird Questions
|
Shawn...at this point, I wouldn't rule ANYTHING out.
| leetdan |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 11:13 PM |
|
|
Re: Another One Of My Weird Questions
|
The 12Z UKMET, NOGAPS, and GFS all match Phil's Crow forecast unfortunately... The water vapor loop is fascinating, Jeanne hasn't quite been knocked south yet even as the ridge intensifies around her northern quadrant. Going to be quite a weekend :-/
| Redbird |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 11:17 PM |
|
Re: Another One Of My Weird Questions
|
When Phil's right, he's right bigtime...................and he wanted to be wrong as in this case more harm will come of this track.
| SoonerShawn |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 11:21 PM |
|
nevermind
|
I just looked at the new model runs and they are not projecting that SW track anymore. They now have the front picking up Ivan and sending him NE. That actually seems more realistic than the SW track anyway.
| COgal |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 11:22 PM |
|
Re: Same time, same place, same cane channel???
|
Yes, I would have to agree with this. I can only take so much playing go fish with my daughter, getting mauled by the dogs and scratched up by the cats! It's amazing when you are bored you get on the floor and let the animals attack you! Was actually thinking about taking up drinking and smoking just so I could have something else to do besides play little kid games. Was thinking too that it might make it all the more interesting!
I could also not take having my hair and makeup done a dozen times in a 10 hour period. It took 3 days to get the rats out of my teased up hair. Also, I hate hurricanes because they make me "fat". After I bought all the supplies and goodies someone had to eat them when it was all said and done. I never ate so much chocolate in my life.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 11:25 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Another One Of My Weird Questions
|
I'm gonna go out on a limb here (and I'll bring my Crow with me) but I think at 11pm we will see an ohsosubtle shift to the west and south and exiting the state near Cedar Key.
I guess the only good thing I can say is that we haven't had a truckload of rain here lately. Anything to be positive, right?
| Cathy |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 11:25 PM |
|
Re: Ivan Landfalls Again. Jeanne on the Move
|
How to measure experience:
"Category III" used to give me goose bumps - now I get cold chills up my spine & nausea!
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 11:27 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Same time, same place, same cane channel???
|
LOL...put the coffee cup down and back slowly away from the caffiene.........
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 11:30 PM |
|
Re: Ivan Landfalls Again. Jeanne on the Move
|
This is getting ridiculous. I was so lucky with Charley, Frances, and Ivan. I wonder if Jeanne will be the one to change my real estate value? Its a logical thought hopefully not a prophetic one that those of us who escaped unscathed the last two times would be the ones to pay big time this time around. Those canes have a nasty way of making little pockets of major destruction away from the core of the storm....
| Allison |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 11:31 PM |
|
|
Re: Another One Of My Weird Questions
|
Quote:
Is it possible that the high starts to push him back SW from the farther east location? If that were to happen than he would go maybe south of Galveston and back out into the water. I know it's a stupid question but I thought of it from just looking at the latest radar which looks like he is moving more north than forecasted.
Good question... I'll take a shot at it.... (usual disclaimers apply)...
I think Ivan will still stay over land... If he keeps moving N/NW, he'll just get farther north into LA before the high moves him SW and into east Texas.
Quote:
By the way, he does look like he is actually building more storms around the center as he is getting further inland.
I noticed that too... I think it's because that part of the storm is still over water... It could also be additional energy coming off the ULL in the Bay of Campeche.
I wonder if that little sliver of dry-ish air to our west will keep most of Ivan's rain away from the Houston area.... though we should still see rain from the front...
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html
| DMFischer |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 11:32 PM |
|
|
Re: Models trending south
|
Quote:
Wouldn't you hate to be Jeb Bush right now? Egads. This storm even took HIM by surprise, as the reporters were the ones that told him Jeanne was heading our way. So, where's his "weather guru", Ben Nelson? He wasn't giving Jeb a "heads up" on Jeanne? As The Donald would say,
"YOU'RE FIRED."
Colleen Thanks, I really needed that laugh. I can almost see his eyebrows shooting up in surprise.
I just got in from the grocery store, filling the gaps in the supplies, preparing, preparing. The Publix was a flippin nightmare! A "normal" Thursday night is never like this, not a basket left to use, it's bring your own from the parking lot and every check out lane was manned and running with people standing 4-6 deep in line. They are already almost out of ice, no dried milk to speak of and the chef boyardee shelf (kids will eat this cold! uk) is empty. The one buzz I heard from several guys from Patrick AFB was they were expecting a hit between them and the Cape. NASA has already sent folks home to take care of business and have begun to lock it down. The trucks have been picking up all the left over limbs and trees having been told to work until the sun goes down.
All of this "feel" like a hurricane is coming. (rolling eyes)
Hang on everyone, here we go again.
God Speed
|
SkeetoBite
|
| (Master of Maps) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 11:32 PM |
|
|
Jeanne up close
|
Latest path up close & personal
New users:
These maps are based on the forecast coordinates from the National Hurricane Center. Do not focus strictly on the path forecast by the NHC. Large errors may occur. If a watch or warning is issued for your area, follow the advice & directions of your local news source.
The wind fields depicted are based on maritime winds and are not as large or concentric over land.
Full size image available here: www.skeetobite.com/weather
| COgal |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 11:32 PM |
|
Re: Crow Munching Forecast
|
No joke! I am a medical insurance examiner and all of a sudden I get 16 orders today for people who want exams for life insurance and they want their exams done before the weekend! I try to explain that the policy will not be in effect until all labwork is back, an underwriter has reviewed the application, the policy delivered and signed. It does no good to rush it now but folks have such a sense of urgency surrounding this they don't care.
| DMFischer |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 11:41 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Another One Of My Weird Questions
|
You may not have had a truck load of rain there, but deal lord, all week we got hit over and over here in sporatic downpours to fine misting rain. Mostly downpours. I have held by breath as the water rose in the street three days and the first of the week when I got in from school the water was mid calf high in front of my house. Thankfully it goes away pretty quickly.
Now I am VERY worried because all around us in some of the fields on the edge of town water is standing. We are well saturated here.
| SoonerShawn |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 11:42 PM |
|
Allison in Katy
|
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.klch.shtml
Look at this and tell me what direction it looks to go in the last few frames.
| PalmCoaster |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 11:44 PM |
|
|
Re: Crow Munching Forecast
|
1st Time poster here...love the up to the minute info many of you contribute! We've been monitoring the last several hurricanes (I say that loosely) here and figured I'd sign up and jump on board and say hello to everybody. So, can somebody tell us what to expect up here in Palm Coast in Flagler County? (fastest growing city in FL, 2nd fastest growing city in the U.S.) We have ZERO news outlets to rely on since all the Orlando and Jacksonville markets omit us and our county (ok, not all, but we had ZERO coverage for Flagler county on TV and Radio during Charley and Frances).
Thanks!!
| Redbird |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 11:51 PM |
|
Re: Jeanne up close
|
Skeet you do all this for free? Husband also says your site is the best and of course this site is part of it...................you should put a pay pal on your site for donations.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 11:52 PM |
|
|
|
Re: nevermind
|
I think Ivan will be picked up by the front, I mean it could but nothing is certain. Depending on how fast the front moves could tell us how Ivan will react. The ULL is located right now in Idaho and will be lifting up in approach to the ridge. The pulse will be weak but it just might be enough to lead it far enough inland to totally wreck the LLC. Hopefully the block upstream will mantain itself so that the ULL can precede slowly and draw Ivan ever so far away from water. Just my take on it, you can agree or disagree.
| ROB IN PA |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 11:53 PM |
|
Re: Allison in Katy
|
First time poster here. Just want to say this is best site out there. I ve learned more in last month than ever before. As for which way it look like it wants to go south. That would make sense this year
| Redbird |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 11:56 PM |
|
Re: Same time, same place, same cane channel???
|
I ate a load of chips and cookies......................when we had power we fixed meals for the neighbors which was a lot of fun.........I liked that part. I just don't like being closed in even if this is a large house...........no power means you know as you live in FL and experienced the big drag it is.
| Bioman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 11:56 PM |
|
|
Re: Allison in Katy
|
I hate to change the subject but has anyone looked on boatus and see how huge Karl's windfield is? that would suck to be in that. at least he is bookin it. I wonder what another 6-12 inches of rain would do to the st. johns river north of orlando.....
| Redbird |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 11:58 PM |
|
Re: Ivan Landfalls Again. Jeanne on the Move
|
She has all the vindictiveness of an ex-wife going for every penny in your bank account!
| FreakedInFlorida |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 11:58 PM |
|
Re: Crow Munching Forecast
|
This list might help you find a radio station that is covering your area:
http://www.floridasmart.com/information/media/media_radio.htm
It lists all the stations in the state.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:01 AM |
|
Re: Same time, same place, same cane channel???
|
I have enough tuna in this house to feed the troops in Iraq. I'm new at this but I have a question for you experts out there: I noted that this hurricane is nearly stationary...if this persists for a while or slows down to a crawl for a day, wouldn't this be good news for Florida as it won't be as far west when the turn to the North eventually comes?
| FreakedInFlorida |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:02 AM |
|
This is the latest status from Fort Pierce/PSL
|
Due to the storm’s current track, this storm poses a threat to southeast Florida and requires close monitoring. The St. Lucie County Emergency Operations Center is monitoring this storm.
St. Lucie County EOC is participating in state sponsored conference calls in conjunction with the National Hurricane Center. We will continue to monitor the storm track and will advise as additional information is provided with the National Weather Service. St. Lucie County is recommending that citizens review their plan for storm preparations. For more information on Hurricane Preparedness, visit www.stlucieco.gov/eoc.
COUNTY ACTIONS:
• County Administration, Public Safety, fire rescue, law enforcement and other outside officials met at 5:00 p.m. this afternoon to discuss Plan of Action.
• It is recommended that if residents are choosing to evacuate that they make those arrangements immediately. Any resident that has experienced flooding in their home during the past two weeks should evacuate. It is recommended that those residents stay with a friend or evacuate out of town.
• There will be No Special Needs facilities/shelters in St. Lucie County available. Due to Hurricane Frances, the Health Department does not have the staff nor the supplies to shelter any Special Needs patients. Those Special Needs patients who can self-transport are requested to leave the area of suspected landfall and seek shelter in an unaffected area. This evacuation should occur as soon as possible to avoid traffic congestion as a large number of citizens are expected to be leaving the county. Please take your prescription bottles with you to facilitate refills of medication. It is important that food, water, clothing and any special needs be taken with you. For Special Needs information ONLY, call (772) 461-5201. All other calls should be made to the Hurricane Information Line (462-2766).
• Indian River Drive, from Savannah Road south to the Martin County line, is open to residents/local traffic only.
• Offices Closed Friday, September 24, until further notice:
o St. Lucie County Government offices
o St. Lucie County School Board
o St. Lucie County Courts
o City of Port St. Lucie
o City of Fort Pierce
o Fort Pierce Utilities Authority (Customer Lobby and Drive Through)
o County Health Department
• Public Schools in St. Lucie County are still closed until further notice.
• Private Schools Closed Friday, September 24, until further notice:
o St. Anastasia School
o John Carroll High School
• Hurricane Information Line opened at 1 p.m. today, Thursday, September 23. Number is (772) 462-2766. Open 24 hours a day until further notice.
• Landfill hours are 7 a.m. until 7 p.m. Thursday and Friday. No free disposal. Normal rates apply.
• All political signs must be removed by noon on Friday, September 24. Code enforcement officials will remove after that time.
• Army Corp of Engineers will have free tarps available at the St. Lucie County Civic Center tomorrow, Friday until 5 p.m. They are no longer available at the Old K-mart at the City Center site in Port St. Lucie. The Salvation Army is now closed at the Old K-mart site at City Center in Port St. Lucie.
EXECUTIVE ORDERS:
None at this time.
Nothing earth shattering as of yet, but it's bad that there will not be a special needs shelter in St. Lucie County. Not surprising though considering the restoration from Frances. However, one should monitor the page:
http://www.stlucieco.gov/eoc/index.asp
for more details over the next few days as I'm sure it will change very quickly...
| mbfly |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:02 AM |
|
|
Re: Jeanne up close
|
Quote:
Latest path up close & personal
New users:
These maps are based on the forecast coordinates from the National Hurricane Center. Do not focus strictly on the path forecast by the NHC. Large errors may occur. If a watch or warning is issued for your area, follow the advice & directions of your local news source.
The wind fields depicted are based on maritime winds and are not as large or concentric over land.
Full size image available here: www.skeetobite.com/weather
UhUh Skeeto................. I'm not likin' that path at all !! I have reservations in DisneyWorld 3 weeks from now, and God (or someone) seems to be hell bent on blowing it away before I get there !!! AND......... whoever it is even came here to Mobile and tried to blow me away !!!!
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:02 AM |
|
|
Re: Allison in Katy
|
Isn't this site great!? Like you I recently joined and the info is priceless (insert mastercard commercial nonsense). Welcome aboard!
Skeetobite I agree you should have a paypal option. I gladly donate to this board and would love to donate to you as well. Thank you for your graphics. I tape them up at work so all the nurses can grab a quick update between patients...very handy!
Karl is looking pretty big, thank God he's a fish spinner...
| Redbird |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:04 AM |
|
Re: Same time, same place, same cane channel???
|
Put the tuna on ice so it is good and cold..........stuff tastes nasty when warm................
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:04 AM |
|
|
COAMPS model?
|
Hi, another first-time poster here, from Ft. Myers. I have been lurking since Frances, but I really wish I had known about this site before Charley. I will never forget watching TWC radar the morning of August 13th, and realizing about 9:30 that Charley was moving east even though Greg Nies on TWC was still saying north. Needless to say, I have lost a lot of my faith in TWC since then.
I have a question about the models. I was looking at the NOGAPS today (and wincing as it showed Jeanne crossing over Ft. Myers) and I followed some of the links to the model comparisons. The model called COAMPS takes Jeanne due west, into the straits of Florida. I haven't seen anybody else mention this. Is there a reason this model is discounted? I'm sorry if this is common knowledge...I'm (obviously) a newbie to all this.
Thanks for your help. This is a great site and I'm very glad I found it.
| leetdan |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:05 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Crow Munching Forecast
|
*plug*
If you're anywhere between Brevard Broward and Lake O, I -highly- recommend ClearChannel's local coverage. 94.3 south of Vero, and 101.7 or 92.7 north of Stuart. They has almost two weeks of 24/7 coverage after Frances, both relaying information from county/state/federal officials (including an interview with Jeb himself) and hooking people with needs up with people who could provide. It was mentioned on this site earlier I believe, but people would call in desperate need of some help, and often within minutes somebody would have called / gone to them and helped out. They (CC) do a lot of charity work outside of hurricanes, and their storm / aftermath coverage really brought out the best in the community.
| Redbird |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:12 AM |
|
Re: Crow Munching Forecast
|
Thanks as I am writing this down immediately......................
| Bioman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:13 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Crow Munching Forecast
|
shalafi your a neighbor i live in Orange City near Blue Springs State Park...which by the way has suspended swimming indefinetely due to the backup of the st johns river Welcome aboard! MBfly how did you fare with Ivan (1st one)?
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:15 AM |
|
|
Jeanne
|
Jeanne
if you look at this loop, you will notice three things:
first, the hurricane made a shot at a "stadium eye" earlier and now the entire system is beginning to look a little ragged
second, click the forcast points box and note that the hurricane still continues each time to move north of the forecast track
third, note the trough off of Florida (those fast-moving high clouds) and the fact that it is no longer moving west but the hurricane still is--this may be pointing in the direction of movement later on down the line
the WV loop backs this up
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:16 AM |
|
|
Re: Another One Of My Weird Questions
|
Quote:Ok, Colleen, but WHY are you thinking this? The ever so 'consistant' adjustments west most storms have had this year, something you've noticed on satellite or just different interpretation of published facts...or, heaven forbid, womans' intuition
I'm gonna go out on a limb here (and I'll bring my Crow with me) but I think at 11pm we will see an ohsosubtle shift to the west and south and exiting the state near Cedar Key.
I guess the only good thing I can say is that we haven't had a truckload of rain here lately. Anything to be positive, right?
Seriously, let us inside your head a bit....
|
SkeetoBite
|
| (Master of Maps) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:18 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne up close
|
Quote:
Skeet you do all this for free? Husband also says your site is the best and of course this site is part of it...................you should put a pay pal on your site for donations.
We are always looking at various revenue models and eventually there will be premium services available at Skeetobite Weather, however, our maps will always remain free.
Here's why:
I own a couple of successful internet businesses, which we closed for 4 days when Charley came through. I thought it would be a good idea to go help with relief efforts.
We relocated from Michigan in July. After unloading two semi trailers of water by hand in Lake Wales, we realized we couldn't take the heat and were quickly becoming potential heat casualties for the Polk County EOC to deal with.
So... Skeetobite Weather is our way of contributing.
Skeetobite.com has no ownership or affiliation with flhurricane.com. We distribute our maps here free of charge for the benefit of flhurricane.com's members and guests.
Please make any dontations to cfhurricane.com to cover their recent hardware purchase. I think they are half way to their goal of covering this equipment. PM MikeC for details on how you can contribute to this valuable resource.
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:22 AM |
|
Re: Jeanne up close
|
FYI, Skeetobite has been made an admin here primarily to help out with getting the maps up and the like a bit quicker and hopefully for some development later on.
| Redbird |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:22 AM |
|
Re: Jeanne up close
|
I have every intention of donating to Mike as soon as possible.............he is great. You do a fab job too! I know you are separate from this board but I credit Mike since it was here I got your weather services.............
Thanks for donating your time to all of us.
| mbfly |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:22 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne up close
|
HEY !!! I just noticed that I got "promoted" from Weather Watcher to Weather Hobbiest !! Cool ! Thanks Y'all !
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:23 AM |
|
Re: Another One Of My Weird Questions
|
That long awaited shift to the west continues to tease us. Between today's 5:00 a.m. update and the 8:00 p.m. uppdate (15 hours) Jeanne moved a total of 56 miles west and 34 miles north... that's WNW for todays movement so far.
AdmittedHacker
| Redbird |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:24 AM |
|
Re: Jeanne up close
|
He certainly is a good candidate for that type of title...........just cleared a lot of mysteries up for me with his detailed maps.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:25 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne up close
|
my title should be "meteorology student"
i am not sure how they are changed
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:26 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Crow Munching Forecast
|
Yeah that's not far at all! That's my exit to and from I-4. I don't doubt the swimming is closed, the St. Johns is incredibly high and here comes Jeanne. The flooding around our area is what I'm worried about most. Neither Charley or Frances did any damage to us, save a screen on our back porch which was nothing compared to the loss others faced. But they closed Catalina for awhile which really messed up my travel time to work...
| Redbird |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:26 AM |
|
Re: Jeanne up close
|
I noticed the same thing.....................weather hobbiest..........and that is just a nice thing even though it is not really true........I am more like trying to keep my group at home safe and be able to someday spend more time on hobbies............but this could become a hobby as I am curious as how these systems tick................thanks
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:27 AM |
|
Re: Jeanne up close
|
The titles are automated (click the FAQ link at the top to see what they are and how many posts you need to get one), unless I (or one of the admins) override it to say something else.
The only time I've done it is for fully qualified meteorologists (Ie Clark, Jason Kelley, etc)
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:27 AM |
|
|
Re: Jeanne up close
|
Quote:
my title should be "meteorology student"
i am not sure how they are changed
$10 says post-count and admin whimsy. Probably more of the former than the latter
| leetdan |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:27 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne up close
|
Yeah, I really don't consider myself more than a hobbYist no matter how many posts I make ;p
And am I mistaken in thinking there's a PayPal link on the page somewhere to donate? I haven't seen one, and wouldn't hesitate to drop some coin to help this great site out...
| Redbird |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:28 AM |
|
Re: Jeanne up close
|
Okay works for me....................I still intend to donate.........finances right now are not in the best shape so that is why it has not happened yet. Sorry about that.
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:28 AM |
|
Re: Jeanne up close
|
It's on the bottom of the main page. I had it up on top, but thought it was a little much there.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:30 AM |
|
|
Evening all,
|
Just got back from "enduring" dinner at an Italian restaurant with my family...
Haven't had a chance to really look at anything yet, but I notice Fort Pierce is now the landfall target.
I made my crow munching forecast without the use of any modeling, just knowing my climatology and some kind of weird sixth sense...
Well, I get back from dinner and holy $h!+, that's right where I predicted...I do not want to be right with this forecast, usually they go the OPPOSITE direction of the calls I make...that's why I'm overweight...too damn much crow!
I wish I had gotten more sleep in the earlier part of the week, cause I'm sure not getting much the next 72 hours and beyond.
Of course, I'm sitting here all safe and sound while many of you are facing Hell for the umpteenth time in 7 weeks. I'd hazard a guess all y'all have had much less sleep than I have.
Must be the season of the witch!
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:30 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne up close
|
is it me or does Karl look like it is beginning to occlude?
| leetdan |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:32 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne up close
|
Done and done, keep up the good work.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:35 AM |
|
|
Re: Jeanne up close
|
Long time poster here - going on at least 5 or 6 years (old age?). Heh. Welcome to everyone who's jumping on and registering. Because this is >your< year (your = Florida), I can't even keep up with all the threads. But it's always good to have new blood in on the action. There are 3 really good fan sites - CFHC, Storm2K and Hurricane City (haven't been there much this year because of all the action on the other two). CFHC was always the best for "up close and personal" stuff when the action got rolling. Storm 2k is pretty good to follow because of the topic headers. And one day, I'm going to save Bobbi/LoisCane's hurricane blog spot (whatever the address is) to my favorites so I can get over there too.
For Palm Coaster -
No idea. Though everyone assumes it will, there are no guarantees that Jeanne will hit Florida. My guess is about 85% chance it will. The other question is how far south it comes in and and how far west it goes once it makes landfall. For a 'coast skirter' storm, you'd probably see gales and maybe some gusts to hurricane strength. For something going in down in Vero or farther south, it would depend on when it made the curve. Should it go into the NE Gulf and come back out, you'd probably see some bands (watch for tornaodes with those) crusing by.
But bottom line on Jeanne - I (and that's me the amateur speaking) do not believe that Jeanne will be in the class of Frances, Charley or Ivan at landfall. It's gonna be bad, but a Cat 1 or 2 (or even a low end Cat 3) are almost a blessing at this point. Yeah, it sucks because the state has been hit so many times this year (my count has it at 5), but it could be worse. We're not talking 'extreme' or 'catastrophic' damage - more on the order of severe or strong. So things could get potentially bad, but they're not going to to be viciously bad if you know what I mean.
As for the chips and cookies comment, that's what I did for Ivan Part 1. Oh yeah, and BEER (lots of it).
In any event, good luck to everyone in the path. May your misery be lessened by any means possible.
Steve
| Redbird |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:37 AM |
|
Re: Evening all,
|
Dang to tell the truth last night I got to watch the 11 pm and had a horrible time sleeping as well....................turned on the news first thing in the morning to see more depressing news........this does interfere with sleep all the tracking and the scary dreams when you do drift off...........
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:38 AM |
|
|
|
Oh, yeah, I forgot...
|
Welcome aboard to all the new registrants! Your compliments are much appreciated...but don't thank me, it's Mike & John who made this site what it is...Mike is continually busting his hump to make sure the site stays up, and he recently ordered a new server to take some strain off of the bandwith usage...
Them servers ain't cheap...
Once again, welcome aboard everyone...
(bonus points) Last night I held Aladdin's lamp, and so I wished that I could stay.
Before the thing could answer me well someone came and took the lamp away
I looked around, a lousy candle was all I found.
Well, you don't know what we can find
Why don't you come with me little girl...
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:38 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne up close
|
Thanks for the welcome, Steve. Everyone here seems very friendly and knowledgeable, and I'm glad I've found this site.
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:38 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne up close
|
Another great resource for us in Central FL is Real Radio 104.1... before, during and after they stop most of the typical talk stuff and centralize info for ice, generators, batteries etc... an incredible asset and a great way to help your neighbors. They broadcast on XM radio as well (I forget the channel) and during these times they let the rest of the world know that regular talk will resume once the need for info has passed. Great stuff!
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:38 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Evening all,
|
You've got to be right sometime LI phil. I like eating at an Italian restaurant, especially Olive Garden "It's like your family" but you aren't because they charge you!
| Bioman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:39 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Crow Munching Forecast
|
Shalafli i am a teacher in Volusia County and lemme tell ya I really dont want to miss any more school. 13 days out of school so far...cant afford any more. I teach up in DeLand and there are two roads that STILL have water over them. The high schools retention ponds are filled up still. In fact the school started to flood during Frances and they had to close the shelter...what a nightmare. I dont care about wind im scared of the flooding.
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:39 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Oh, yeah, I forgot...
|
I want bonus points bad but this has be scratchin my shaved head....
| Redbird |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:40 AM |
|
Re: Jeanne up close
|
Steve add a little beer to the cookies and chips..............not exactly a healthy way to eat but my stress was high.....oh and a few candy bars with the m&m's too. Hard part was explaining to the folks who don't live down here that this was serious business.............they just sorta equate it to just a wind storm.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:40 AM |
|
Re: Same time, same place, same cane channel???
|
Is Stuart above Gainesville?
| leetdan |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:41 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne up close
|
Yes, sorry I forgot. 104.1 is a good CC resource for Greater Orlando, no matter how annoying the Monsters are
| Redbird |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:41 AM |
|
Re: Same time, same place, same cane channel???
|
Nopers.........by west palm
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:42 AM |
|
Re: Oh, yeah, I forgot...
|
I do have the new server in, but need to find the time to get it set up. Most likely over the weekend. I'm going to move parts of the site over to it slowly as I don't want to screw it up during Jeanne.
For those that keep track it's a dell poweredge 1750 rack server with 2x 2.8ghz Xeons, 2gb ram, and a raided scsi system with 2x 10000rpm hds. Running centos 3.3 on it so it's going to be fairly high powered. Old system will still kick around doing weather statement processing, though.
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:42 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Crow Munching Forecast
|
I agree! Volusia has some terrible water removal. One day I just know I'm going to see an Alligator Crossing sign...I heard Jeb said they don't have to make-up missed school days. Is that right? How ridiculous is that?
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:42 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Same time, same place, same cane channel???
|
Stuart is on the east coast, south of Indian River county (i think near Fort Pierce, but feel free anyone to correct me if i am wrong)
| Redbird |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:43 AM |
|
Re: Oh, yeah, I forgot...
|
The site has had little downtime suprisingly.....................
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:43 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Crow Munching Forecast
|
Regarding missed school days, here in Lee County the kids have to make up every day they missed for Charley and Frances. They'll still be in school well into July at this rate!
| Bioman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:44 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Crow Munching Forecast
|
lol i think they waved three of the school days...so we have to make up like 10. and they decided to add minutes to each day until the end of the year to make it up. i think like nine minutes each day something like that.
| leetdan |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:45 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Same time, same place, same cane channel???
|
Stuart is on the coast between Jupiter and PSL, or more generally between Miami and the Cape. Skeetobite's maps should explain nicely
| Bioman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:46 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Crow Munching Forecast
|
you know its bad when your school asks the state to delay the almighty FCAT
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:46 AM |
|
Re: Crow Munching Forecast
|
If Jeanne would just get the lead out and do what ever she is going to do, it could go a long way toward kids being in school on Monday or Tuesday at the latest. Has any one else noticed how these storms have made theatrical entrances this year? Its like none of them have done anything until the entire nation is staring at them. Maybe they should start numbering them or give them nonsensical letter arrangements for names. Then these canes would not take themselves so seriously!
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:46 AM |
|
Re: Oh, yeah, I forgot...
|
Quote:
The site has had little downtime suprisingly.....................
I've streamlined some things to keep it down. It still has to be babysat and reset way too often though. It does have a hardware issue that seems to rear its ugly head when traffic gets high enough. The current system is basically a modified desktop tower, and really isn't meant for the type of load it gets, but the new one should handle us for quite a while, and more importantly handle the features I want to add for next year.
| Bioman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:49 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Oh, yeah, I forgot...
|
my students have emphatically stated they dont want to miss any more school....when was the last time students wanted to be in school
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:49 AM |
|
Re: Same time, same place, same cane channel???
|
I'm in Darien, Ga. , just down the road from you. What is your prediction? My son is coming down from N. C. on the bus Sunday night for a visit. Gets into Savannah at 11:15. Hope he does not get delayed!
| Bioman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:50 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Oh, yeah, I forgot...
|
anything interesting on the 8pm update from the NHC?
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:50 AM |
|
Re: Jeanne up close
|
Well Steve I am going to have to pull even farther E on this one than than you.The last four hours Karl's fast movement has provided a vacumn to be filled to the N and E of Jeanne.This filling in of the ridge is happening to the NE of Jeane and not so much to the NW.You then have the approaching trof from the W to pull at Jeanne later.The ridge
seems to be flattening out some as we speak in response to the advancement of the trof.I think Jeanne misses FL. skirts the coast and becomes a GA. to NC. event.I have had a hard time seeing this girl making it that far W.The fact she is idle again may mean the steering currents are weak again and maybe the ridge is weakening some..
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:51 AM |
|
|
|
CFHC
|
I've seen a part of the future CFHC...It will be the BOMB! Mike had actually wanted to implement it this year, but with all the action we've seen he's gonna hold off for CFHC's 10 year anniversary (2005). If you think the site is good now...
Bonus points hint: Born To Be Wild...
| sthorne |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:52 AM |
|
Re: Oh, yeah, I forgot...
|
A Magic Carpet Ride would be so much nicer than a Wet Carpet Ride....
sthorne
We Have A Winner...Magic Carpet Ride by Steppenwolf
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:52 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne up close
|
Javlin, I am guessing 60 miles on either side of Charleston
where are you forecasting?
and does anyone else have a specific forecast on this?
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:53 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne up close
|
Everything is supposed to "flatten" out in the near furture, this will start up the cycle again and make it very hard to track a tropical cyclone if one exists.
| CJ |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:53 AM |
|
Re: Oh, yeah, I forgot...
|
Quote:
Welcome aboard to all the new registrants! Your compliments are much appreciated...but don't thank me, it's Mike & John who made this site what it is...Mike is continually busting his hump to make sure the site stays up, and he recently ordered a new server to take some strain off of the bandwith usage...
Them servers ain't cheap...
Once again, welcome aboard everyone...
(bonus points) Last night I held Aladdin's lamp, and so I wished that I could stay.
Before the thing could answer me well someone came and took the lamp away
I looked around, a lousy candle was all I found.
Well, you don't know what we can find
Why don't you come with me little girl...
Thanks Phil for the great quote from Magic Carpet Ride--it made me smile in Fort Myers!
Welcome Aboard CJ! No bonus points, but there will be ample opportunities throughout the evening...
CJ
| FireAng85 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:54 AM |
|
Re: Ivan Landfalls Again. Jeanne on the Move
|
Mr. Fletcher,
You are very welcome. I love my job and couldn't imagine doing anything else. I like being there to help when the s**t is hitting the fan.
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:55 AM |
|
Re: Jeanne up close
|
To far out right now for me took me most of the day to conjure up this one brain fart.
| sthorne |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:55 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Oh, yeah, I forgot...
|
Ohhh la, la. Nice rack. I feel my donation was well used.
sthorne
| mbfly |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:56 AM |
|
|
|
Re: CFHC
|
Majic carpet ride- Steppin wolf -
Was there a trivia question somewhere here or something ???? What do I win !
Too slow on the triggerfinger, I'm afraid...
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:56 AM |
|
|
|
brief historic note:
|
Today is the anniversary of Hurricane Eloise in 1975
Landfall: Panama City
Winds: 125
Pressure: 955
Deaths: 21
Damage: $420 million
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:56 AM |
|
|
|
Re: CFHC
|
Speaking of a 10 year anniversary, I wonder how long I've actually been on this site. I'm pretty sure I was here for the 1998 season, but I can't remember. I'm looking forward to the upgrade though.
>>Well Steve I am going to have to pull even farther E on this one than than you.The
You might be right. I'm pretty non-committal on any landfall areas. It's just too hard to tell yet what's going to happen. Florida *almost* seems like a foregone conclusion, but it isn't yet. And whether or not Jeanne crosses to the west side (or even the Gulf) will make a world of difference for everyone in interior sections of the Peninsula. Trust me, the west side isn't always (= 100%) the weak side of a storm coming from the east, but it usually is. I just caught the west side of Ivan, and to see me cutting my grass drunk (I did a nice job though) vs. what the poor souls faced in Pensacola Beach (home away from home), it was night and day. So if the eyewall stays offshore or maybe just taps the coastline, the farther inland or west someone is, the better it's going to be for them.
Steve
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:56 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Crow Munching Forecast
|
Very inconvenient but kids gotta learn!
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:56 AM |
|
Re: Jeanne up close
|
I am going to get some sleep. Tomorrow and tomorrow night will be the telling tale of who gets wet, who gets wind, and who gets crow. I will bring the salt and pepper. Somebody else will have to provide the catsup, tobasco sauce and tortillas,
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:57 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Oh, yeah, I forgot...
|
>>> Ohhh la, la. Nice rack.
Straight to the GEMS, if I ever get a chance to do another...
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:58 AM |
|
|
|
Re: CFHC
|
Oh and Phil, I did catch the Donovan reference /guess I'm old. And speaking of old, where's Old Sailor at a happy and prosperous 75?
Steve
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:58 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne up close
|
I've heard a bit of the Monsters and I'm 50/50 with them. One second they make me laugh, next second I wanna harm them. I'm a huge Philips Phile Fan however...I was just blown away with their effort to help people. I called in to give locations in DeLand with gas and moments later they announced them on the air. I felt really good about being able to help people....
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:58 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Crow Munching Forecast
|
Quote:
Very inconvenient but kids gotta learn!
Very true. I'm just glad I don't have any kids. I don't know that I could handle the extra stress. I work for an insurance company, and ever since Charley things have been going non-stop there.
| collegemom |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:00 AM |
|
Re: Jeanne up close
|
I dropped my son off at FIT in Melbourne the day before Charley, sweated through Frances and now face Jean. This is a wonderful site. Please keep posting your thoughts and insights so us inlanders can stay informed. Thanks
| dwlobo |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:01 AM |
|
|
Re: Oh, yeah, I forgot...
|
MIke,
I'm glad I found this site this year... keep up the good work. The only problem is that I'm hooked on it... the wife's wondering what kind of web site will keep me up late and my co-workers probably think I'm following something on ebay.
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:02 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Crow Munching Forecast
|
Haha that's true...they are the drama kings and queens demanding an audience. Ever see Chris Farley as "El Nino"? Classic...I can personify these 'canes as Chris (because I have an overactive imagination). "Look at me! I am Jeanne! FEAR ME!..ahem..hey you in Oregon, I said LOOK AT ME..thank you.."
Yes I'm going to bed...
| nandav |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:03 AM |
|
Re: Jeanne up close
|
A Florida "miss" would be wonderful. We got hit TWICE with Charley.. with the eye going over our house (that we rent) in Pt Charlotte(on my birthday, yet!) .. and then the eye passed over the house that we OWN (where my stepdaughter & husband live) in Deltona having hours later (with a tree falling on the roof). Then the Deltona house got hit again by Frances .. my insurance company is going crazy!!
Thanks for the site... it's been my lifeline, even though I can't say I understand much ... wish I had seen it before Charley!!
(& Thanks for the Magic Carpet RIde lyrics.. I never did understand them before...)
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:03 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne up close
|
Skeetobite, your maps are the best!!! However, if you plot the 60 hour point at 26.7 and 79.8 you will see the landfall point is near WPB/Jupiter not near Ft. Pierce. I guess your program can only plot the 48 and 72 hour plots? The line would then be curved and not straight from the Bahamas to Ft. Pierce. I am not trying to be picky and know the storm is not a point, but what I am trying to say is that landfall currently by the NHC track is really quite a bit south as what the 48 and 72 hour straight line plots show. I just want to make sure people south in the WPB area know this.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:04 AM |
|
|
|
More new members!
|
Welcome aboard all! Mike, quick, start selling ads
Only kidding...
>>> my co-workers probably think I'm following something on ebay.
Yeah, that's what they think...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:05 AM |
|
Re: Same time, same place, same cane channel???
|
P.S. In regard to your saying prayers at Mass. Fr. Payne was our substitute pastor the other day and he believes the Georgia coast is protected by "prayer bags" rather than sand bags, to help keep hurricanes away from our shores. Lots of prayers every day of the year from Tybee on down the coast of Ga.
| Bioman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:05 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne up close
|
I was one of them getting ice.... Thanks
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:05 AM |
Re:NHC
|
I think the NHC puts too much emphasis on the models without looking at the big picture. If and when Jeanne turns west she'll definitely miss s.fl and maybe the whole state. Maybe I'm wrong but I think once the models see the big pic then the track will start shifting north. By the way the big picture is looking at the water vapor loop and seeing the influence of the trough and where the High is situated. Well that's my input. I think, more like a landfall around Georgia.
| Florida Nurse |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:05 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Oh, yeah, I forgot...
|
Me too......My husband said I'm an official hurricane junkie......not true, though. I'm more of a gator girl myself
---Kelly W.
| Mooshie-SC |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:06 AM |
|
Re: Jeanne up close
|
Javelin, does this mean she could turn N up totwards SC before making any sort of landfall in Florida?
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:07 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Crow Munching Forecast
|
What type of insurance? Home, auto, medical? I don't have kids either (never will either) but we sure don't need any more uneducated people...
| dwlobo |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:09 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Oh, yeah, I forgot...
|
It kind of bugs my daughter too. She can't get into her LOTR chat rooms if I'm hogging the PC.
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:09 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Crow Munching Forecast
|
Quote:
What type of insurance? Home, auto, medical? I don't have kids either (never will either) but we sure don't need any more uneducated people...
A broker actually, who gets all three if that's what you need. You call us and we get it for you.
The week after Charley, we took 5000 claims calls. In one week. It was unreal.
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:09 AM |
|
|
|
Re: More new members!
|
Haha...well ebay does have a "mature" section..so I hear..ahem
| COgal |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:09 AM |
|
Re: Same time, same place, same cane channel???
|
I just hope people aren't letting their guards down because they believe they are being protected............
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:09 AM |
|
|
|
Cantore on TWC now...
|
JC hasn't left the building yet...guess our landfall spot will have to wait until tomorrow...
(Bonus points)
Oh baby don’t it feel like heaven right now
Don’t it feel like somethin’ from a dream
Yeah I’ve never known nothing quite like this
Don’t it feel like tonight might never be again
We know better than to try and pretend
Baby no one could have ever told me ’bout this...
| Mooshie-SC |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:10 AM |
|
Re: Cantore on TWC now...
|
What is the JC?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:11 AM |
|
Re: CFHC
|
Check out the latest model runs... several models have pulled back to the east. None show a west FL track now. Most seem to cluster with the track running up the east coast...
AdmittedHacker
| cjzydeco |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:11 AM |
|
|
|
Re: CFHC
|
I didn't realize that this was a bonus points question. Steppenwolf of course (not sure about the spelling)!
Might wanna read some of the posts after the question...correct guess but way too late for points.
Yeah just saw the time. But the next one is Petty.
| Bioman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:13 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Cantore on TWC now...
|
ok so im looking at high resolution loop and im watching some clouds from Jeane racing north west. Then im watching clouds (either above or below) in the same area racing into florida from the northeast blowing toward the southwest. Which one of these is going to steer jeanne? Or will they both rip her apart. We have had fierce northeast winds here in Central florida for days now.
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:13 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Cantore on TWC now...
|
Quote:
What is the JC?
Jim Cantore of TWC. He's like a hurricane magnet. You can be sure wherever he goes, that's where Jeanne will make landfall.
Well, almost sure.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:13 AM |
|
Re: Cantore on TWC now... proper answer is
|
who is jc
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:13 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne up close
|
Small world! Glad to help. Hey I have a truck with tow package if anyone needs help hauling or pulling anything. 4x4 shortbed Ranger I'd be glad to help when possible. After Charley I went around and pulled trees off the roads around my neighborhood. Came across a Chevy guy with his big truck sitting there as he tried to axe a tree to clear the road. Man oh man did it feel good to snap that thing in seconds with my tow strap and truck.
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:14 AM |
|
Re: Cantore on TWC now...
|
Well, I can answer that.. (thanks to Google).. but that's cheating..
Maybe I can get a honesty point...
| COgal |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:14 AM |
|
Re: Cantore on TWC now...
|
The waiting
Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers
Bonus points for the both of you ... one for honesty and one for the correct answer!
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:15 AM |
|
|
Re: Oh, yeah, I forgot...
|
weve been pretty lucky so far huh? I myself have become addicted to this site since all the canes have been coming around. If it does hit wpb vero area we'll probably have about the same thing as francis dont you think?
| sthorne |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:15 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Cantore on TWC now...
|
Don't want to hog all the bonus points, so I'll just say what a very appropraite choice on BOTH song and artist.
sthorne
The cattle is from near our "ranch" in TX.
| Mooshie-SC |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:16 AM |
Re: Cantore on TWC now...
|
Where is Jim forecasting landfall right now?
| FireAng85 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:16 AM |
|
Re: Jeanne up close
|
Bryan,
What department at FH South do you work in? I do clinicals there in the ER and transport there sometimes.
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:17 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Crow Munching Forecast
|
Oh my word..you offer all three...State Farm is my guess but don't feel like you need to say. I can't believe how busy y'all must be.
Someone posted a link to a graphic comparing Charley, Frances and Ivan (back when he was way down in the caribbean) I don't suppose anyone knows of a graphic comparing all the storms we've had including the many we have now?
| COgal |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:17 AM |
|
Re: Cantore on TWC now...
|
What are the bonus points good for? Just for good measure?!
| sthorne |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:17 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Cantore on TWC now...
|
I wonder if Jeb has set JC to "no fly" status in Florida?
| COgal |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:20 AM |
|
Re: CFHC
|
Sounds like good news but the whole track leaves me a little nervous...
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:20 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne up close
|
I'm in registration and I may have hounded you for info sheets in the past
I'm not in the ER unless the need is critical but it happens, Frances for instance..I was the big guy in the front having withdrawals cuz this site was down.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:21 AM |
|
|
|
The ubiquitous bonus points...
|
>>> What are the bonus points good for? Just for good measure?!
They're like a get out of jail free card...you get to make one assinine post I can't edit!
Only kidding...hadn't really thought about it...was buzzed last night and thought it was funny, but you guys all responded and seemed to like it so I threw it out there again...probably won't make another nite, so rack em up now. tomorrow will be hunker down and lets concentrate on where this new threat wants to go...
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:21 AM |
|
|
|
Re: CFHC
|
JC is none other than Jerry Cornelius of course. He's a Michael Moorcock fictional character who assumes the identity of various JC's throughout history to right wrongs (Julius Ceaser, Jesus, etc.). It could be John Cornelius though, site Administrator
TPS
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:22 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Cantore on TWC now...
|
I think it means you're first in line to serve Phil his crow when he's deserving. I sure hope he's deserving this time...
| Fletch |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:22 AM |
|
Re: Cantore on TWC now...
|
Quote:
I wonder if Jeb has set JC to "no fly" status in Florida?
Not yet, but he did tell George that JC hangs out with Cat Stevens. "It's a Wild World"
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:22 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Crow Munching Forecast
|
Quote:
Oh my word..you offer all three...State Farm is my guess but don't feel like you need to say. I can't believe how busy y'all must be.
Someone posted a link to a graphic comparing Charley, Frances and Ivan (back when he was way down in the caribbean) I don't suppose anyone knows of a graphic comparing all the storms we've had including the many we have now?
Actually, they'd probably give me a pat on the back for promoting the agency.
It's called Oswald Trippe & Company, and we have agencies throughout the state. Closest to you would be Ocala, I think. We don't have anything too close to Orlando.For tracking, try:
http://www.nbc-2.com/
Then click on Storm Tracker in the top article. You can see the paths of all 2004 storms and a good deal of historical storms too. All of us in the office were doing this when Ivan seemed to be following Charley's path so closely.
| Wingman51 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:24 AM |
|
Re: CFHC
|
Well, here we go again - - TOHO is as high as I've ever seen it and that's after this years major draw down. My concern this time is which side of the house to board up her in St. Cloud - - Charley blasted the South Side and Frances hit the north side - - might as well cover them all, stay covered till christmas and paint decorations all over them.
Thanks for the great guidance and advice meted out by the site and the posters - - you have no idea how much you benefit not only us, but in some cases our companies. I am asked daily what I have seen and do we need to close - - thanks to you guys, I'm usually right
| FireAng85 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:24 AM |
|
Re: Jeanne up close
|
ok, I'm sure we have passed each other in there a time or two. Small world, huh?
| nandav |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:25 AM |
|
Re: Cantore on TWC now...
|
Speaking of JC, this was in the Charlotte County Newspaper on Sept 13:
Top 10 list offers respite from storm worries
Punta Gorda Isles resident Jim Druyor has the right idea -- it's OK to laugh again.
A la David Letterman, Druyor created a hurricane-induced "Top 10" list around 1 a.m. Sunday morning and faxed it to the Charlotte Sun.
"I'd had some of these thoughts for a while, and I couldn't sleep because I was worrying about (Hurricane) Ivan, so I though I'd write," said Druyor, 60.
Here, then, are Druyor's "Ten Ways to Tell If You Live in Charlotte County":
1. Primary means of communication is graffiti on your garage door.
2. Friends ask, "Where are you evacuating to this weekend?"
3. You know what time the tropical update starts.
4. FEMA's phone number is on your speed dial.
5. You can change a tire in 5 minutes flat.
6. You know Wayne's last name. (NOTE: The head of Charlotte County EOC.. warned us for years that this could happen)
7. You think "Red Cross" is a popular new restaurant.
8. Your gas tank hasn't been below three-quarters in five weeks.
9. Blue is now your favorite color.
10. Jim Cantore is standing in your back yard.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:25 AM |
|
|
|
Ricreig
|
Quote:
Seriously, let us inside your head a bit....
Ya sure you wanna go there?
Ok, seriously. Partly because it IS a gut feeling; partly based on what I'm seeing. It wobbles to the north, then back to the west, and they are expecting a more westward course later tonight or tomorrow. It's moving much faster than Frances and I think it will not make that NW turn until it's already inland. I don't buy the sharp turn to the north scenario. Hope that helps; not an expert, just my opinion.
| COgal |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:26 AM |
|
Re: The ubiquitous bonus points...
|
Now I will not only be up all night glued to this site for the latest info I will be digging deep inside my brain trying to come up with something "assinine".
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:26 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Crow Munching Forecast
|
Local 6 has a tracker too: Local 6 Hurricane Tracker
Your link wont work in my setup. I have my computer on tight security and a lot of features don't function.
| Redbird |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:26 AM |
|
Re: CFHC
|
Board the whole cotton pickin place up as that would cover all bets and your holiday decorations would just be a little early............could look cool
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:26 AM |
|
|
Re: CFHC
|
Yeah TOHO is high.. Might be able to go surfing on it depending upon how high the winds get.. The white caps have been wicked this year.. Even seen some alligators body surfing..
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:27 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne up close
|
wow..that's two close encounters on this board on one night. And it's waay past my bedtime. Night all!
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:28 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Crow Munching Forecast
|
Quote:
Local 6 has a tracker too: Local 6 Hurricane Tracker
Your link wont work in my setup. I have my computer on tight security and a lot of features don't function.
This is the same one I posted about. I guess our news stations share the same source.
| AmateurJohn |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:30 AM |
|
Re: The ubiquitous bonus points...
|
Phil, can we post our own Bonus Point Questions? If not, how can I recommend one to you?
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:30 AM |
|
Re: CFHC
|
I have not seen the latest model runs but I'm starting to think that Jeanne will go more north than most people are predicting... Javlin might be on to something... its all about the ridge... how strong, and for how long... I posted early today for my first forecast I thought the space coast was a good as target as any, but perhaps more to the north, than to the south like Frances... as many were predicting Ivan early on to hit the Tampa, Purta Gorta area for a second major landing hurricane, this was something that was hard for me to buy into from the getgo, and it never did pan out... and it certainly is possible for Jeanne to produce another very similar track to Frances but I think the probabilities are against is somewhat.... what's the chance that the same ridge location and strength and steering currents will all set up exactly as set up for Frances.... I personally think it will be low.... and tonight I am having trouble buying that repeat event, call it a hunch, or guesscast, or whatever, but I really think the zone of probabilities will shift more to the north over time... I'm not sure if the ridge will be strong enough to shunt Jeanne south of the space coast like what occurred with Frances... at least right now that's my opinion.... I'm due for some crow eating so if it goes south of the space coast (titusville) then crow will be served buffet style at the Frank P household.... but right now.... very close or perhaps just north or so of the florida space coast titusville area
| dwlobo |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:32 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Oh, yeah, I forgot...
|
We've been waaayyy lucky so far. I keep telling people that we must be on some scared indian burial ground or somthing. I'm liking the early turn north and then northeast. This is making it a point to defy all the forecasts. Just when they thing they've sortof figured it out, it makes fake to the left then cuts to the right.
| COgal |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:33 AM |
|
Re: Crow Munching Forecast
|
Speaking of that link you gave for local 6 ;
I signed up for the Premium Weather service they have on that page because it was free for 2 weeks. You can plot your location as well as a few others and when severe weather is approaching your area it will inform you. When my power was out it didn't do any good to have them send me an alert on my computer but it was VERY helpful to have them send me an alert to my cell phone. My specifications for being alerted were if any tornadic activity were approaching my home I wanted to be alerted. I received notificaiton twice and both times hunkered down in the bathtub until it passed. This was especially helpful because I discovered that my radio batteries were completely DEAD (they were brand new) and I had no way of knowing what was happening out there.
| Heather |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:34 AM |
|
|
Re: Crow Munching Forecast
|
Still waiting for State Farm to inspect my roof from Charley damage. First appt. was cancelled due to Frances, second cancelled due to Ivan. Third appt. is scheduled for Saturday. Suppose they'll make it this time? :?:
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:34 AM |
|
Re: Crow Munching Forecast
|
I'm beginning to find it hard to believe that Jeanne is going to head pretty much straight West for the next 48 hours... While the ridge is strong, it seems that is asking a lot.
I'm sure I'm wrong, but that seems like a long time to hold a course.
I'm fully prepared. It can come right for me and I'll be ok.
" So, what did you do this weekend?" "Oh, just rode out another hurricane."
| dwlobo |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:34 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Oh, yeah, I forgot...
|
Boy.... I kant tipe tunite. Sorry for the grammar mistaks.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:34 AM |
|
|
|
Re: The ubiquitous bonus points...
|
>>> Phil, can we post our own Bonus Point Questions? If not, how can I recommend one to you?
Blue light special...for tonight only...two rules...they can't suck and they must be DIRECTLY related to something you mention in your post; they should be hard but not impossible and I reserve the right to axe you if it doesn't meet the two above criteria...bonus away...
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:35 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Crow Munching Forecast
|
Quote:
Still waiting for State Farm to inspect my roof from Charley damage. First appt. was cancelled due to Frances, second cancelled due to Ivan. Third appt. is scheduled for Saturday. Suppose they'll make it this time? :?:
Third time's the charm, they say.
I hope you have better luck this weekend.
| SoonerShawn |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:37 AM |
|
From Accuweather...
|
Ivan to Re-enter Gulf of Mexico Monday
After impacting eastern Texas this weekend, Ivan is expected to move back into the western Gulf of Mexico Monday. Steering winds from the north will push Ivan southward into the Gulf of Mexico. It is too early to tell whether or not Ivan will restrenghten once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico Monday.
My "final answer" is that this WILL NOT happen. I'm now on the line of the front picking Ivan up and taking him NE. For all of us, let's hope that Accuweather is wrong. It's not like it would be the first time.
| nandav |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:40 AM |
|
Re: Crow Munching Forecast
|
We got our roof tar-papered before Frances and haven't seen them since . Meanwhile, more leaks have sprung. Who knows how long this is going to take..
Can we expect to at least have more rain this weekend?
| AmateurJohn |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:40 AM |
|
Charley & Frances & Jeanne, Oh My!
|
I feel like a deer caught in the cross hairs. Charley brushes by us to the west. Then Frances brushes by us to the east. Now who knows what Jeanne will do? Maybe go right over our roof! I'm going crazy! Hope to have some of my sanity left by November 30.
Here's my Bonus Point Contribution:
Well the wind is blowin harder now
Fifty knots or there abouts
There's white caps on the ocean
And I'm watchin' for water spouts
It's time to close the shutters
It's time to go inside
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:41 AM |
|
Blob in central GOM
|
Shawn, have you checked out the massive blob of convection in the central GOM tonight... its more impressive right now than Ivan the Second ever was.... check out the IR....
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:43 AM |
|
|
Someone deserves geek points!
|
Normally not one to go OT; but the feature that pops up the little NHC chart when your mouse rolls over the name of the storm in a message is major cool!!! WTG Mike!!!!
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:43 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Crow Munching Forecast
|
Quote:
We got our roof tar-papered before Frances and haven't seen them since . Meanwhile, more leaks have sprung. Who knows how long this is going to take..
Can we expect to at least have more rain this weekend?
ILocal forecast for Ft. Myers says 50% chance of rain on Saturday, 40% on Sunday. Earlier today it said 60%. Tomorrow it could say 80% or 20%. Short answer: nobody knows. But I would plan for it. Better to be prepared and not have it happen, then do nothing and be caught off guard.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:44 AM |
|
|
|
DQing myself...
|
Ah, one of my favorite artists...wonder if he had to evac last week?
DQing myself from bonus point consideration
|
SkeetoBite
|
| (Master of Maps) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:44 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne up close
|
Quote:
Skeetobite, your maps are the best!!! However, if you plot the 60 hour point at 26.7 and 79.8 you will see the landfall point is near WPB/Jupiter not near Ft. Pierce. I guess your program can only plot the 48 and 72 hour plots? The line would then be curved and not straight from the Bahamas to Ft. Pierce. I am not trying to be picky and know the storm is not a point, but what I am trying to say is that landfall currently by the NHC track is really quite a bit south as what the 48 and 72 hour straight line plots show. I just want to make sure people south in the WPB area know this.
You are correct. Limitations of the software.
The issue is the straight lines from coordinate to coordinate. One can imagine that the line in this image would "droop" southward since these storms do not move point to point and turn abruptly. Hopefully the image below will help.
| dwlobo |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:44 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Blob in central GOM
|
Noticed that too. Looks like it came off the Yucatan Pennisula?
| AmateurJohn |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:45 AM |
|
Re: Someone deserves geek points!
|
I never noticed that before. Very, very sweet! This site just gets better and better. Thanks Mike.
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:46 AM |
|
Re: DQing myself...
|
Bonus Point:
She's dressed too warm
For this latitude
We go out to lunch
With some Jamaican dude
Then the sunshower breaks
We come in out of the rain
But in her Florida room
There's a hurricane
And it's named Jeanne..
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:47 AM |
|
Yo Master Jedi Phil...... Bonus Points
|
Hey Phil I just noticed something.....
After this totally worthless, meaningless, and absolutely no value added post, I will be only two (2) posts away from 1000 official posts on CFHC...
Now that ought to be worth a bonus package of a dozen Krispy Kreme donuts....
1000 bottles of beer on the wall.... 1000 bottles of beer.... take one down...... yada yada yada
Oh, I forgot, that's Steve's theme song.... hehe
| alan |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:48 AM |
|
|
Re: Charley & Frances & Jeanne, Oh My!
|
Trying to reason with Hurricane Season
Jimmy buffet.
I've closed every gig I do for years with that song. Never really figured I'd learn the literall meaning of it.
| gailwarning |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:50 AM |
|
|
Re: Cantore on TWC now...
|
Our favorite native son, Thomas Earl Petty. You left out the best part: "the waiting is the hardest part"....
| Redbird |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:50 AM |
|
Re: Yo Master Jedi Phil...... Bonus Points
|
LOL not a worthless post..................laughing is kind of what we all need right now.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:50 AM |
|
Re: Jeanne up close
|
Not sure if it's "the" turn or just a short term wobble... but Jeanne seems to have turned to the left finally.
AdmittedHacker
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:50 AM |
|
Re: Crow Munching Forecast
|
Quote:
I'm beginning to find it hard to believe that Jeanne is going to head pretty much straight West for the next 48 hours... While the ridge is strong, it seems that is asking a lot.
I'm sure I'm wrong, but that seems like a long time to hold a course.
I'm fully prepared. It can come right for me and I'll be ok.
" So, what did you do this weekend?" "Oh, just rode out another hurricane."
yea I rode out that hurricane too and kept getting bitten up by mosiqutos trying to fill the generator!! LOL
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:51 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Yo Master Jedi Phil...... Bonus Points
|
Quote:
Hey Phil I just noticed something.....
After this totally worthless, meaningless, and absolutely no value added post, I will be only two (2) posts away from 1000 official posts on CFHC...
Now that ought to be worth a bonus package of a dozen Krispy Kreme donuts....
1000 bottles of beer on the wall.... 1000 bottles of beer.... take one down...... yada yada yada
Oh, I forgot, that's Steve's theme song.... hehe
Heh...must be nice to have a hurricane party with frat bros while 200 miles to your east the whole world as you know it is ending...das OK...when that inevitable CAT III does make it there, I'll be partying up a storm.
| AmateurJohn |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:51 AM |
|
Re: Charley & Frances & Jeanne, Oh My!
|
Sorry alan, no bonus points for you (on a technicality to be explained when we get our winner).
| Kent |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:52 AM |
|
Re: Yo Master Jedi Phil...... Bonus Points
|
"Laughter is what we need right now"
Should I repost my Ode to Hurricane Season 2004 for those who missed it then?
By all means, but only if you include a midi link to you singing it! Only kidding, tonight is to pass the time...tomorrow we get serious. Very Serious...
| COgal |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:53 AM |
|
Re: DQing myself...
|
Florida room/Fagen
| Redbird |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:53 AM |
|
Re: Yo Master Jedi Phil...... Bonus Points
|
Sure! I loved reading it.......................
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:54 AM |
|
Re: DQing myself...
|
We have a winner!
| SoonerShawn |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:54 AM |
|
Frank P
|
I saw it earlier but I don't think much about it because it looks to be just a trailing feeder band from Ivan. Won't amount to anything.
| alan |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:54 AM |
|
|
Re: Charley & Frances & Jeanne, Oh My!
|
I feel like I'm back in Tennessee last Saturday with those officials.
| cjzydeco |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:55 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Yo Master Jedi Phil...... Bonus Points
|
Absolutely, Kent! And if someone could post the link to those HILARIOUS hurricane cartoons that were on the board last night... my fam needs some giggles right about now.
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:56 AM |
|
Re: gas
|
The gas stations are already backing up tonight! I have 20 gallons for sale.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:57 AM |
|
|
|
Local pressures in Florida
|
I have been looking at the real time surface pressure loops for Florida at the NWS Melbourne site during the day, http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/ldis/4km/winds_pmsl_loop.html
Nothing extraordinary. Noticed the dijurnal phases today. However, The pressure has been higher since Ivan went through then I have seen in a while They seemed to peak yesterday night. Gradient is pretty evident though. Just another thing to keep an eye on as Jeanne gets closer.
| h2ocean |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:59 AM |
|
|
Re: Jeanne up close
|
Yeah, I just noticed also it is currently moving west now. I hope that is a wobble and it starts more NW. But if you look at the models, they show the NW movement it was making followed by the turn more to the west. Sigh. Monday I thought about taking the hurricane shutters down, but decided, I better wait...glad I did. I had taken a few off of windows in the family room and living room...so only a few minutes of work to do when I get off work tomorrow afternoon. I am soooo ready for winter this year.
| dwlobo |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 01:59 AM |
|
|
|
Re: gas
|
When everyone went crazy over here with Ivan and the gas stations were running out of car nectar, I finally figured out that having a boat filled with 120 gallons of gas sitting in my backyard wasn't so bad. Good for the wifes saturn, but not so good for the f250 with the 7.3diesel.
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:01 AM |
|
Re: gas
|
I know about that, it was good for my car but not my husbands chevy, GOD FOR BID!
| Daytonaman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:03 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Yo Master Jedi Phil...... Bonus Points
|
Here's the link to the cartoons I posted last night..enjoy.. Hurricane Cartoons
Nice to have some fun before the storm..
Bruce
Port Orange, FL
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:03 AM |
|
Re: Cantore on TWC now...
|
Another Tom Petty line that fits is from Full Moon Frever
Well the man out to end us had a hurricane business
He's raise them from babies all by his self
But his teen-age accountant had become surrounded
He drank up the party and everyone left
| Fletch |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:04 AM |
|
Re: Jeanne up close
|
Wait for the trend. Over the last 6 hours still only slightly North of West. We'll have to see where this wobble bottoms out.
| Kent |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:05 AM |
|
Ode to Hurricane Season 2004 by Kent
|
This still needs tweaking and I'm open for suggestions if you think I forgot anything...
A few days before Jeanne and all through my town'
1000's of psycho's are rushing around
Publix was restocked yet now shelves are bare
but managers promise more ice will be there
Hardware stores crammed with a line out the door
prepare yet again to restock their store
They frantically call and beg their suppliers
send us more tarps, more tapcons more pliers!
We need flashlights and lanterns and lots of propane
Our customers seem to have just gone insane!
they are buying things we thought no one would buy
its good for the business, but you gotta ask why?
Where is the stuff that they bought just last week
when Hurricane Ivan had caused them to freak?
He went down below us and off to the west
so why are they back here on this new quest?
Donations were sent? Oh yes, now we see!
The victims of Ivan have that rope for your tree.
So back in they come and swarm all the aisles
sorting through tapcons and battery piles.
The frenzy gets worse as the day turns to night
and all are familiar with one certain sight
of people all huddled around their tv's
waiting to hear about Jeannes next big breeze
Will she come closer? When will she turn?
As my sister up north asks "when will you learn?"
Hammers are banging once more on plywood
covering windows cause Jeannes in the 'hood.
She's spinning due west and won't go away
silently stalking her Florida prey
We thought she had gone out to sea long ago
but now she is back with a FRANCIS echo
The wench is now aiming at poor Vero Beach
the center of Florida is well within reach
The place is in turmoil there's no gas again
I haven't seen gas cans since I don't know when!
Hurricane season is not over yet
We're only at "L" in the darn alphabet!
So pardon our whining and constant obsession
but we feel like we all have got manic depression!
heres the link to the cartoons...hysterical!
http://cagle.slate.msn.com/news/Hurricanes/1.asp
| dwlobo |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:05 AM |
|
|
|
Re: gas
|
I actually had a friend with a big 50kw diesel generator, with no fuel, who was trying to cut a deal for the fuel in my truck, if we got hit by Ivan.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:06 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Cantore on TWC now...
|
>>> Another Tom Petty line that fits is from Full Moon Frever
My favorite Petty 'album' (CD)...a mind...with a heart of it's own...
There were no bonus points there so I can chime in!
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:06 AM |
|
Re: Cantore on TWC now...
|
Im back online to post tonight for the next few hours, any questions you all have let me know. If you want to know my prediction or reasons for whats going on then look at the last thread and I think it was page 8? That was my forecast for Jeanne around 230pm. I also gave reasons why it would go wnw for first 6 hours then go due west starting very soon. Anyone want to post it on this thread feel free. Also if you read my post you will see its very simular to what stewart said in his 5pm update again.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:07 AM |
|
Re: Allison in Katy
|
all i know is that is some heavy ass rain around beaumont
looks nw ish
| dani |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:07 AM |
|
Re: Crow Munching Forecast
|
In Santa Rosa and Escambia counties, it'll be 14 days Friday with no end in sight. The counties are talking to the commissioner to see what to do about a shortened academic calendar. Even the local colleges University of West Florida and Pensacola Junior College are closed until further notice.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:07 AM |
|
|
|
West Movement
|
I have to make this brief because I have to put Thing 1 and Thing 2 to bed....but it's definitely moving towards the west again.
I learned a lot from Ivan and I have no reason to doubt their landfall prediction.
You know it's bad when you make it on the show "ON THE RECORD" with Greta van Susteran...and JB is her first guest.
| Fletch |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:07 AM |
|
Re: Cantore on TWC now...
|
I thought this kind of captured most Floridians view of the storms this year. Thought about posting as a question, but not sure how many Phish Phans out there.
Squirming Coil
I saw Satan on the beach
trying to catch a ray
He wasn't quite the speed of light
and the squirming coil
it got away....
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:10 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Crow Munching Forecast
|
COGAL - If you want a free service to receive weather alerts and many other features, try www.my-cast.com. They have a great radar too, that updates regularly. Try it out it is free. Sorry do not want to plug another site, but since it is free, I am hoping its ok..
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:10 AM |
|
Re: Cantore on TWC now...
|
Also just to let everyone know that the 18z GFS run with the Ukmet 12z dont have the right data into it in recognizing the strength of the ridge to the NW,,, just as stewart said. So even though the GFS model shows a landfall just north of WPB and hugging the coast,,,a stronger ridge in the data should bring it onshore by at least LakeOkeb. Also dont rely on the tropical model suites,,,they are run offs of the GFS and change from run to run. So with the GFS 18z it will reflect in the current OZ runs of the bamm, bamd,Lbar. So I would just right them off.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:11 AM |
|
|
|
Scott...
|
>>> Im back online to post tonight for the next few hours, any questions you all have let me know. If you want to know my prediction or reasons for whats going on then look at the last thread and I think it was page 8?
Scottsvb, do you want me to repost it here?
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:11 AM |
|
Re: Scott...
|
sure why not.LOL
Gimme about 30 seconds...
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:12 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Cantore on TWC now...
|
Where is Cantore? He can stay at my house.
BTW...I called the Chamber of Commerce in Port St. Joe's to ask them about the storm....she didn't have a clue.
The trip is off.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:14 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Cantore on TWC now...
|
I think Cantore is out shaving his head.. readying himself for the next close up.. LOL..
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:15 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Cantore on TWC now...
|
In the spirit of the night:
Jeanne picks her target.
She hides her choice from our view.
She is no lady.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:15 AM |
|
|
|
Scottsvb's forecast...I think this was posted around 3:00 pm today
|
Scott posted this about 10 hours ago...
"First off you cant go by the exact points that the NHC has listed as their track. For example many have noticed the 25.6N for the next 36 hours but we know most of the time storms will wobble along the axis. If I was the NHC I would of gone 25.8 then 25.9 then keep it there a extra 6 hrs then move it up again another.1 or .2 even by 48hrs. So what Im saying it will be near 26.2N in 48hrs from now. Thing is over the last 12 hrs the mid level flow around the strong ridge still way off to the NW was losing its reach on Jeanne. Now with a light steering flow she wobbled to the wnw over the last few hours. She will though start to feel the ridge more as it moves southeast from Penns- the midatlantic states over the next 24hrs so this will change the current 280-285dg track back to a almost due west track of 270-275dg. Some of the models show this on the mid level flow pattern.
She will run over cooler ssts this afternoon halting any intensification but later this evening into tonight she should start to strengthn slightly with the night time durational affects. It could be close to a Cat 3 by morning. After rolling thru the bahamas and very close to Nassau, By late Friday night into the morning Sat she should lose the due west course but its unsure of it will be truley WNW at 295dg or more 280-285 during the day Saturday. Anyways, none the less, a moderate strengthning affect should happen when she encounters the warm gulf stream waters. These waters were only partially affected by frances plus frances was a few weeks ago so the waters had time to recover up to 28-29c. Shear will begin though and could hamper any great intensification before landfall. Landfall is tough to pinpoint due to it being 66hrs out from now and the shape of the florida coastline. Right now as hard as it is Im going to say it will make landfall around 115-125mph from Pompano beach-Jupiter inlet. This is my 50mile swath for 3 days out or so. It could reach Lake Ockechobee or NE part causing extreme conditions near south bay, belle glade, and even Cleweston area around the lake. Jeanne should slowly weaken and head NW and even NNW into southern Polk county thru there on Sunday afternoon (abouts) to west of Orlando. It could then move N or even NNE coming up close to Jacksonville. Anyways really after it gets to Lake Ockechobee really all bets are off right now as that is just after 72 hrs out. IM not 100% sure it wont just go WNW to Sarasota then NW near Clearwater and up to the Panhandle or by the lake go NNW between Orlando and the Cape and exiting just north of Daytona beach by late sunday night. So after the lake its still up in the air untill tomorrow. Anyways I gave my landfall spot. The ridge should hold strong into Saturday. Jeanne should gradually pick up some forward speed over the next 6-12 hrs and continue and turn more due west also in that time period. Hurricane watches should be posted I would feel as early as 11pm tonight to give alittle more time for the high population areas along the florida east coast.Oh btw landfall times around between 10pm saturday night and 4am sunday morning,,that could be revised."
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:17 AM |
|
|
Re: Ivan III
|
Since Ivan seems to be a Miami Hurricane fan, there is a remote possibility of him going back into the GOM. The Hurricanes are currently whipping the University of Houston 31-13, at Reliant Stadium in Houston. If we can get the Miami team to stay in Houston for a week we may be able to put Ivan down for good. 0.02
This just in:RMK AF980 4609A IVAN OB 07 FLIGHT LEVEL CENTER OVER LAND. FREQUENT LIGHTNING
| sthorne |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:18 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Crow Munching Forecast
|
Saint Lucie was due to open again Sept. 27 after being closed since Sept. 2 due to damage to 3/4 of the schools in the county. Guess that will change now, hope the other 1/4 make it thorough.
| AmateurJohn |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:19 AM |
|
Hurricane Preparedness Guide
|
We're in the middle of the hurricane season. Any minute now, you're going to turn on the TV and see a weather person pointing to some radar blob out in the Atlantic Ocean and making two basic meteorological points.
(1) There is no need to panic.
(2) We could all be killed.
Yes, hurricane season is an exciting time to be in Florida. If you're new to the area, you're probably wondering what you need to do to prepare for the possibility that "the big one" will hit us. Based on our insurance industry experiences, we recommend that you follow this simple three-step hurricane preparedness plan:
STEP 1:
Buy enough food and bottled water to last your family for at least three days.
STEP 2:
Put these supplies into your car.
STEP 3:
Drive to Nebraska and remain there until Halloween.
Unfortunately, statistics show that most people will not follow this sensible plan. Most people will foolishly stay here in Florida.
We'll start with one of the most important hurricane preparedness items:
HOMEOWNERS' INSURANCE
If you own a home, you must have hurricane insurance. Fortunately, this insurance is cheap and easy to get, as long as your home meets two basic requirements:
(1) It is reasonably well-built, and
(2) It is located in Wisconsin
Unfortunately, if your home is located in Florida, or any other area that might actually be hit by a hurricane, most insurance companies would prefer not to sell you hurricane insurance, because then they might be required to pay YOU money, and that is certainly not why they got into the insurance business in the first place. So you'll have to scrounge around for an
insurance company, which will charge you an annual premium roughly equal to the replacement value of your house. At any moment, this company can drop you like used dental floss.
SHUTTERS
Your house should have hurricane shutters on all the windows, all the doors. There are several types of shutters, with advantages and disadvantages:
* Plywood shutters: The advantage is that, because you make them yourself, they're cheap.
* Sheet-metal shutters: The advantage is that these work well, once you get them all up. The disadvantage is that once you get them all up, your hands will be useless bleeding stumps, and it will be December.
* Roll-down shutters: The advantages are that they're very easy to use, and will definitely protect your house. The disadvantage is that you will have to sell your house to pay for them.
* Hurricane-proof windows: These are the newest wrinkle in hurricane protection: They look like ordinary windows, but they can withstand hurricane winds! You can be sure of this, because the salesman says so. He lives in Nebraska.
* Hurricane Proofing your property: As the hurricane approaches, check your yard for movable objects like barbecue grills, planters, patio furniture, visiting relatives, etc.
You should, as a precaution, throw these items into your swimming pool (if you don't have a swimming pool, you should have one built immediately). Otherwise, the hurricane winds will turn these objects into deadly missiles.
EVACUATION ROUTE
If you live in a low-lying area, you should have an evacuation route planned out. (To determine whether you live in a low-lying area, look at your driver's license; if it says "Florida," you live in a low-lying area).
The purpose of having an evacuation route is to avoid being trapped in your home when a major storm hits. Instead, you will be trapped in a gigantic traffic jam several miles from your home, along with two hundred thousand other evacuees. So, as a bonus, you will not be lonely.
HURRICANE SUPPLIES
If you don't evacuate, you will need a mess of supplies. Do not buy them now! Florida tradition requires that you wait until the last possible minute, then go to the supermarket and get into vicious fights with strangers over who gets the last can of cat food. In addition to food and water, you will need the following supplies:
* 23 flashlights: At least $167 worth of batteries that turn out, when the power goes off, to be the wrong size for the flashlights.
* Bleach: (No, I don't know what the bleach is for. NOBODY knows what the bleach is for, but it's traditional, so GET some!)
* A big knife that you can strap to your leg. (This will be useless in a hurricane, but it looks cool.)
* A large quantity of raw chicken, to placate the alligators. (Ask anybody who went through Andrew; after the hurricane, there WILL be irate alligators.)
* $35,000 in cash or diamonds so that, after the hurricane passes, you can buy a generator from a man with no discernible teeth.
Of course these are just basic precautions. As the hurricane draws near, it is vitally important that you keep abreast of the situation by turning on your television and watching TV reporters in rain slickers stand right next to the ocean and tell you over and over how vitally important it is for everybody to stay away from the ocean.
Good luck, and remember: Its great living in Paradise.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:19 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Cantore on TWC now...
|
Stephanie Abrams will be in WPB tomorrow, so the good news is that JIm Cantore will be somewhere else. Farther north? Max Mayfield said watches for the Florida east coast tomorrow at 5 or 11 am.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:21 AM |
|
Re: Cantore on TWC now...
|
yeah 36hours for watches , 24 for warnings. Personally I feel watches should be 48 hrs. Thats double the warning time which I feel is needed cause a watch is just that,,a watch. Anyways giving people 12 hours is kinda not much time.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:21 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Cantore on TWC now...
|
I now find myself rolling my mouse pointer off of Jim Cantores name expecting a pop up map with his route on it.
Mike, can you take care of that?
| Londovir |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:22 AM |
|
Re: Cantore on TWC now...
|
Just for some cute info, which no one in particular cares about:
1) According to the superintendent of Polk County schools, the Florida Department of Education has said "NO" to the idea of allowing schools to add minutes to the existing days to make up lost time. (This is per official media release by PCSB).
2) Polk (along with other districts) will only have to make up 6 days missed [so far] - 3 were excused on order of the Governor.
3) The FCAT test has been preliminarily postponed for 1 week to give school districts that lost time a chance to "catch up".
4) Yours truly wrote a letter to the Lakeland Ledger editors that was printed on Sept. 17, asking for the FCAT to be canceled, or at least to be made unofficial this year. Maybe someone in Tallahassee read it. :-) The ironic part is, I start teaching a new group of 110 students on Tuesday (Jeanne willing), in Grade 10 Algebra 1B - all FCAT students. (I didn't know that was my assignment until after the letter was sent in to the paper...)
Life goes on, doesn't it? Let's hope Jeanne rolls away north and then northeast, and goes to sleep with the fishes. (Which reminds me, my wife and I kept cracking up when Frances was about to come on shore, the professional met on Channel 8 - not Jerve, the other guy - kept saying "The east coast is going to get whacked". I was wondering how much of The Sopranos he was watching before he went on air....)
| Fletch |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:22 AM |
|
Re: Cantore on TWC now...
|
Well I guess I better try Stephanie Abrams name!!
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:23 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Cantore on TWC now...
|
ROFLOL.......so if I see a bald man roaming around my yard, I'll know who he is right away.
I think he must have played football in HS or college...he definitely has that "football player" profile. I should know, I am spending 75% of my life with 2 football teams...
| clyde w. |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:23 AM |
|
Re: Ivan Landfalls Again. Jeanne on the Move
|
All right Scottsvb, I'll bite:
What's up with the convection tonight? The storm seems to have lost a lot of punch in the last few hours, and for the first time in a while, it looks like the eyewall may be open to the SW. Is this being caused by dry air entrainment, or the fact that it is recrossing its own path and therefore crossing over cooler ocean temps? Or something else altogether??
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:24 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Cantore on TWC now...
|
That's not good for WPB. Stephanie seems to be the new point person. As in: point closest to the eye. She did a good job in Mobile, I guess they are trying to give Cantore a rest.
Or sweeps are on and they are pushing ratings.
| Heather |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:25 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Cantore on TWC now...
|
I remember thinking that Cantore never makes it to quite the right spot. Seems like he was a bit too north for Frances and not in the heavy action for Ivan. Is that right? Isn't Abrams the one who's always getting blown around? Maybe I'm confused.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:25 AM |
|
Re: Cantore on TWC now...
|
Colleen, I read a news report about him... he's a weighlifter, like JB, and me... it must be an Italian thing... hehe
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:27 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Cantore on TWC now...
|
Hey Scott,
Change your forecast track so I am not dead center in it. I am halfway between Pompano Beach and Jupiter Inlet. PLEASEEEE
| nandav |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:29 AM |
|
Re: Cantore on TWC now...
|
Well.. for Charley he was on Sanibel, and then N. Ft Myers.. not quite on target, but pretty close... A lot closer than the other guy who was near Tampa..
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:30 AM |
|
Article on Cantore... excellent reading
|
This is a wonderful article on Jim Cantore.... and you will only like and respect him more after you read it.... guaranteed...
http://www.sptimes.com/2004/09/20/Floridian/The_storm_chaser.shtml
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:32 AM |
|
Re: Article on Cantore... excellent reading
|
Convection is less tonight cause its going over the waters it just came from 4 days ago,,,,,Its like going in the pool,,its nice and very warm,,,,then a thunderstorm hits, after it stops you go back in and the water is alot cooler. The eye though has shrunk some so I dont think its really losing much but it will strengthn once it gets past 74W.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:33 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Track
|
Don't blame Scott for the track. He just connects the dots. NHC put the numbers out, and we all know they will change.
| clueless |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:34 AM |
|
Silly question
|
Silly - and somewhat off topic question.
Why is it that everytime I move my mouse over the word Jeanne a thumbnail sized map of the forecast path show up on the end of my cursor?
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:37 AM |
|
Re: Track
|
connect the dots? My forecast was out at 230,,,they have theirs at 5pm. Notice they are the same. LOL. I know just coincidence....I cant spell tonight. Anyways Im usually alittle different from the NHC paths unless they come into my thinking a few hours later. Also if you read stewart he said alot of the same as me and I did my post earlier. Oh well nothing is set in stone. I want to see that due west motion start now and if it dont by morning. Then it may just possilbe be up farther (of course) closer to Vero Beach-Melbourne landfall then going NW between Orlando and the Cape then N to Jacksonville. Right now. Lets wait.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:40 AM |
|
|
|
Florida Closed for Renovation..
|
I am hoping tourists are taking note of the hurricane approaching our coast.
Tourists (I am not talking about evacuees) have no business being in town during a hurricane. Tourists not only jam up the roads, but they also are competing with locals for food, shelter, ice, and gas. Sorry I had to vent about this.. I welcome tourists any other time, however, "We hate to say it as much as you hate to hear it, Florida will closing in 10 minutes, please procede to your nearest airport for the earliest departure". Come back again when things are not so chaotic..
Dont even get me started about Disney opening parks the day after Hurricane Charley.. Greedy little Mouse.. Sorry I am way off topic again..
| Kent |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:40 AM |
|
Re: Cantore on TWC now...
|
Yeah and I am bordering Pompano! Hey WxmanRichie have they said anything about school closings since Max mentioned the watches?
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:42 AM |
|
|
Re: Article on Cantore... excellent reading
|
Quote:
This is a wonderful article on Jim Cantore.... and you will only like and respect him more after you read it.... guaranteed...
http://www.sptimes.com/2004/09/20/Floridian/The_storm_chaser.shtml
That is a touching article.
I suggest if anyone passed that up the first time, take a look.
Gives me a greater admiration of Jim Cantore.
| Kent |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:43 AM |
|
Re: Florida Closed for Renovation..
|
Don't worry Lake Toho...
I heard Mickey is moving to Nebraska
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:43 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Silly question
|
Quote:
Silly - and somewhat off topic question.
Why is it that everytime I move my mouse over the word Jeanne a thumbnail sized map of the forecast path show up on the end of my cursor?
Ahh the joys of CSS...
(Cascading Style Sheets) are the best thing to hit web design since - well, anything. They allow you to do certain things to your content and in this case Jeanne (Karl ?) let's presume active storms, are singled out by the webmaster to get their own style applied - in this case, it's a highlight and if your browser supports it, a thumbnail of the track.
/techie web-speak
| Fletch |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:43 AM |
|
Re: Cantore on TWC now...
|
Quote:
Yeah and I am bordering Pompano! Hey WxmanRichie have they said anything about school closings since Max mentioned the watches?
Nothing yet. Here is a link to the Broward Public Schools website. http://www.browardschools.com/
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:45 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Cantore on TWC now...
|
Schools to the north of Palm Beach County are closed, but they are open from P.B. County south.
| Kent |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:45 AM |
|
Re: Cantore on TWC now...
|
kewl! Thanks!
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:47 AM |
|
|
|
Cantore
|
Thanks for the article Frank...trying to wipe the tears out of my eyes as I type this.
Long time posters ignore what follows...I've said it before...newbies listen up.
I had the privilege of meeting Mr. Cantore during Floyd '99 at point lookout on Long Island. By this point floyd was transitioning from a hurricane to a ts, so needless to say, it wasn't quite the storm we're used to seeing him in.
I stayed for more than an hour, along with maybe 30 people. There was some wind, maybe 30-40 mph at the time but no rain. The sand was being whipped up into a frenzy and pelting any exposed skin.
After Jim did his intro and then his 2-3 minute "spot", he could have retreated into the TWC van. Did he? No, he took most of the remaining 20 minutes till his next spot to talk with the people who had gathered. He was holding an anomemeter, which was only registering about 17 mph (it was defective), but a dad with his 10 year old son (guessing at the age) also had THE SAME BRAND anomometer which was registering more accurate speeds. The kid let him use it and on the air he credited the kid!
Somewhere in my dungeon condo I have a photo of me & Jim. He posed for photos with anyone who wanted them.
He made me look tall as about his only flaw, if you can call it that, is he is rather short. But I wouldn't want to meet him in a dark alley with a fight on my hands...that's for damn sure.
Say what you will about Mr. Cantore, but he is a one in a million, top notch gentleman of the highest caliber.
Now go read the article Frank P. Posted. I didn't know any of that personal stuff...just makes the man more amazing! Bash TWC all you want (god knows I do), but if you ever say a bad word about JC you will be hearing from me...
I know a number of posters on here, including some of the mods, have met Jim, and I'm sure they can all attest to his character...
JC...the main reason to still watch TWC...
Sorry for the rambling diatribe...but that article FP posted just set off a nerve...
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:47 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Article on Cantore... excellent reading
|
Scott,
Local tv meteorologist just said the same thing, cooler waters limiting the reds on the IR loop due to Jeanne being in that area for awhile. He said it should increase after 72 west.
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:48 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Article on Cantore... excellent reading
|
yeah that was touching. Thats a shame about his family having all the med problems. I hope it gets better for them.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:49 AM |
|
Re: Article on Cantore... excellent reading
|
Yep that is mainly it,,, there is some dry air also but thats not the main inhibiter.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:51 AM |
|
Re: Cantore
|
Well said Phil... Im chokin the tears back myself...
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:52 AM |
|
Re: Article on Cantore... excellent reading
|
The OZ run of the ETA is out,,,,it takes landfall near Ft Lauderdale in 54hrs. I wouldnt rely on this model too much but its better then the tropical model suites.
| clueless |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:55 AM |
|
Re: Florida Closed for Renovation..
|
Quote:
Dont even get me started about Disney opening parks the day after Hurricane Charley.. Greedy little Mouse.. Sorry I am way off topic again..
At least if they are all at Mickey World they are not in the way of the rest of us trying to put our lives back together. - Picture I-4 accident gawkers by every downed tree
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:55 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Article on Cantore... excellent reading
|
Wow...what a guy. I always liked him...never knew any of that stuff about his wife and son being sick.
If I can ever figure out a way to do it, I'll post a picture of my brother....with a baseball hat on, he could be JC's twin brother. He's often BEEN mistaken for JC.
Jim's still in the studio tonight...maybe he's staying home this storm.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:55 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Article on Cantore... excellent reading
|
11 PM Track out..
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:55 AM |
|
Re: Cantore
|
Cantore..... is what I would call the quintessential class act... and he's Italiano too... bonus points....
I would love for him and his crew to ride out a storm in my house on the front beach... heck, one day I'll write TWC and send them an open invite
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:58 AM |
|
|
|
11 PM Discussion out also
|
11 PM is out.. Basically no change, though Avila did move the track a little to the east, but said at the same time stated it could very well be further inland.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 02:58 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Cantore
|
Quote:
Cantore..... is what I would call the quintessential class act... and he's Italiano too... bonus points....
I would love for him and his crew to ride out a storm in my house on the front beach... heck, one day I'll write TWC and send them an open invite
He doesn't like bassets!
Seriously though, that would mean a serious monster would be heading your way...I guess that's inevitable given the fickle nature of these f----ers.
Maybe you could wrestle him for bonus points...
speaking of which...
gotta come up with something witty for my next post...you guys have filled in admirably so far...
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:07 AM |
|
Re: Cantore
|
Heres what they did, the discussion was pretty much what I said in the cooler water. He wants to wait till recon gets in there and I agree. Recon will show the correct pressure but at times they dont find the exact strongest wind. Anyways I dont think the turn will be that great from W to NNW in 6 hours. I think it will go w then wnw-nw for about 6-12 hours around landfall to alittle inland then NW-NNW . They have it going straight almost from just N of west to NNW. Remember we all have to learn the enviroment around the area. With Charley, we forgot what Bonnie did going more ene instead of ne and making landfall further east. So charley should move NE sooner right? Well we all saw that he did. Right now we see Ivan making a landfall near TX,LA coast. Been going wnw. Well that enviroment will push east over florida in 2 days so by the time Jeanne nears the coast it should bend but not go NNW imediatley. Do we learn from whats going on? Well models of course dont. But we do. Anyways that is why I dont have such a strong hook up to the NNW after 79-80W but more of a bend to 81W before a it gets to a NNW direction. I could be wrong of course, but thats how I see it.
Also just to note, Avila adjust the track just a tad to the right due to the GFDL model and GFS. We will see the new GFS model runs with the global models during the next hour or 2. Then we will see if its adjusted w again by morning or stay the same.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:08 AM |
|
|
|
Re: 11 PM Discussion out also
|
Cantore cuts right to the chase...."basically no change in track, moving now at 6mph to the west, looking different than it did this afternoon, let's let Dr. Steve Lyons explain that."
Dr. Steve goes on to show how the eye is becoming more concentric (smaller) but I think he also said that it's not looking more disorganized, just cooler waters, but he expects it to move over warmer water before making landfall.
Dr. Steve doesn't miss a trick does he?
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:13 AM |
| Attachment |
|
|
|
We need some humor tonight
|
New Florida license plate, see attachment.
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:14 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Cantore
|
Quote:
Do we learn from whats going on? Well models of course dont. But we do.
Well said Scott. Anyway, another weekend, another hurricane threat. I've almost, notice I did say "almost", gotten used to it. One thing I did notice was the ridge pushing down from the north, and basically closing the "channel" that I was watching all day. It was the path that the convection surrounding Jeanne had been taking as it headed off to the NW. It looks almost like the ridge has built in further south in front of her right now. Obviously the ridge is expected to continue moving eastward and relax a bit, but I can't help but remember all the difficulties the models have had when trying to forecast the influence of these ridges on these systems this season. Personally, I'm not exactly ready to jump on the idea of Jeanne heading straight up the coast of Florida, but that's just my $.02
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:14 AM |
|
|
|
Re: 11 PM Discussion out also
|
Yeah truly no change.. Think the change they made was Inconsequential..
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:20 AM |
|
Re: 11 PM Discussion out also
|
Actually there appears to be a big adjustment to the forecast track. The 11:00 pm from the NHC at the TPC site shows now no land fall until it hits the tip of Cape Canaveral and slides in at New Smyrna/Daytona area.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:23 AM |
|
|
|
Re: 11 PM Discussion out also
|
Not a big adjustment at all.. They moved it about 30 miles to the east.. The discussion even said they do not know if it will make the turn inland or at the coast..
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:23 AM |
|
|
|
West Movement
|
Scott...tell me if I have this right: Jeanne is now moving to the west at 6mph and they are expecting that westward movement to continue for the next 48 hours with an increase in forward speed. Then they expect her to make a more NW turn after that, right?
So, if Jeanne moves faster to the west for the next 48 hours, wouldn't that put her closer to the peninsula or on the peninsula? Also...looking at that H on the WV loops, it looks like the high is trying to build in to the west...fill in, if you will.
Am I even close to reading this right?
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:24 AM |
|
|
|
Re: 11 PM Discussion out also
|
One thing I just noticed on some impromtu notes I had taken were the various coordinates from the 5am discussions. Yesterday's(9/22) had Jeanne located at 26.1N/70.5W Remember this track still had her off the coast of Florida. Today's(9/23) had her 26.0N/75.9W And was bringing in her into/right off the coast of Florida. Right now she's at 26.1N/70.8W, a lot closer to the 5AM forecast from yesterday versus today.
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:27 AM |
|
Re: Cantore
|
Frank you got some fine dogs even if they do sleep when yea knock.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:27 AM |
|
Re: 11 PM Discussion out also
|
Well, that 30 mile adjustment to the east means a 200 mile difference in where it makes landfall.. before it was coming inland further at Ft Pierce area (again) and raking alot of the east coast with the "bad" side of the storm. The 11:00 pm shows none of the FL east coast getting the worst side of it. Yes, it's subject to change, but that shows how a "small" adjustment can make a huge difference thanks to the geographic angle of FL and Jeane's approach.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:27 AM |
|
|
|
Re: We need some humor tonight
|
Quote:
New Florida license plate, see attachment.
ROFLMFAO.
I actually tried to get a New Yawk custom plate, along those same lines, to read
"Pha-Que"
when you space it FAQ it reads more like "frequently asked questions" rather than the intended "Fa" "kew" get it?
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:31 AM |
|
|
|
Phil...you're so BAD!
|
Quote:
Dr. Steve doesn't miss a trick does he?
Nope, he's Johnny-On-The-Spot....LOL
BTW...did you see MSNBC'S "Anatomy of a Hurricane"? They had Dr. Steve on and one of the other Severe Weather Experts on, just sitting there talking to each other...it was so ...so....scripted. It reminded me of the phone call between Al Gore/Joe Lieberman and Tom Daschle and Richard WhatEverHisNameIs during the 2000 Election Fiasco. Actually, though, Dr. Steve came across better in the sit-down situation than he does on TV. I just don't think he is a "TV Person" like John Hope was. Gosh I miss that man.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:34 AM |
|
Re: Phil...you're so BAD!
|
well your right colleen,,dont know really what to say, but how fast to the west,,,,10mph or 12 or 15?
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:34 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Cantore
|
I swear I didn't read your post before I posted mine...it almost looks as though that High is slamming the door...fast.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:37 AM |
|
QUESTION ABOUT SPAGETTI MODEL
|
Does anyone know when the updated spagetti model will post?
GEMS Material...well intentioned and I will work on it, but priceless nonetheless!
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:39 AM |
Thanks Jav...
|
Normally I would have to put a contract out on someone for bad mouthing my dogs... (i.e., Phil and his reference to Cantore not liking Bassets) but tonight I'll take exception and give him the benefit of the doubt.... hehe
I'm sure Jim C would love my hound dawgs.....
will say this, the latest NHC forecast is a little closer to where I forecasted Jeanne to hit... space coast (Titusville or areas north... and perhaps not south)... we'll see how much the track changes in the am...
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:41 AM |
|
|
|
Re: QUESTION ABOUT SPAGETTI MODEL
|
Spaghetti model, but it's quite old and shouldn't be used as a reference point...
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:41 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Ivan and Texas
|
For the TEXANS on the board.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1002 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2004
...RAINFALL...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL BE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IVAN'S PRIMARY IMPACT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
PRECIPITATION IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS NEAR BEAUMONT IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SPREAD WEST AND NORTHWEST AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN MOVES NORTHWEST.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTER THE CENTER OF IVAN MOVES WELL INLAND. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE THE CENTER OF IVAN
TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS84-KHGX.shtml
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS
ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS
* UNTIL 1230 AM CDT
Removed Medina County Flash Flood warning-Not associated with Ivan--editor
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:44 AM |
|
|
|
Re: 11 PM Discussion out also
|
Everyone is reading the track as a straight line point to point. The track will actually be a gradual turn from W to NW between those points right along the Florida coastline, so it looks as if it doesn't come ashore until it hits the Cape Canaveral area. This is NOT true, a rounded track will show it makes landfall down near Jupiter to Stuart/PSL area. I wish the NHC or Skeetobite or anyone could show those rounded turns instead of straight lines. It is especially important in this case as the storm is turning right at the coastline. Our local TV station actually showed this correctly. Does anyone see what I am saying?
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:48 AM |
|
|
|
Forward Speed
|
Well, if you read the discussion, they didn't actually say HOW much faster, but if it's at 6mph now, I would think that they expect it to pick up to maybe 8-10 mph. I highly doubt that they would say an "increase in forward motion is expected" meaning 6.5 to 7mph. I'm looking for more than that...
I'm hungry, and debating on whether to have an apple or an apple.
OMG...I'm watching Jay Leno and he just did the most hilarious clip of a press conference the President had today where he asked, "Is anyone here from CBS?" and a guy raised his hand and then they show fake SS agents beating the crap out of him, then they pan back to W who's kinda looking on (I saw the PC, he was actually listening to a question) like, "Okay." It was hysterical.
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:48 AM |
|
|
Re: We need some humor tonight
|
Hey everyone from here in finally dried out Atlanta.....
First, can SOMEONE please send Mother Nature a jumbo strength Midol, cause she must be seriously PMS'sing.....
Second, thanks for posting that story on JC. I did not know all about his family and their health problems, and it's amazing that our local fish wrapper(Atlanta Journal-Constitution) hasn't picked up on that one.
Third, Glenn Burns from WSB-TV here in Atlanta showed the full track of Ivan from when it made landfall in Ala/Fla to the "carousel" like movement around the High Pressure to it's current status. He stated that he's never seen anything like it before and hopes to not see anything like it again.
Finally, the "Hurricane Checklist" is hilarious as well as the new license plate for Florida. Although I did see the checklist on Neal Boortz' website a couple of weeks ago....
TTFN
| Kent |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:54 AM |
|
Re: 11 PM Discussion out also
|
Have any of you guys in SE Fla noticed how skinny our weathermen are getting?
seriously. They all look thinner...Brian Norcross, Roland Stedham, Bill Camall, Bob Soaper all of em look frail to me.
(I know I spelled their names wrong but you know who I am talking about at least)
| Fletch |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:57 AM |
|
Re: 11 PM Discussion out also
|
Quote:
Have any of you guys in SE Fla noticed how skinny our weathermen are getting?
seriously. They all look thinner...Brian Norcross, Roland Stedham, Bill Camall, Bob Soaper all of em look frail to me.
(I know I spelled their names wrong but you know who I am talking about at least)
It's the Jackie Johnson effect. Everyone wanted skinnier Weather models, they didn't realize they were speaking of the women only. Have you seen the porn star (women) they have on in the AM.
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:58 AM |
|
Re: CMC 00Z run
|
The CMC run has shifted way E keeping Jeanne off the FL coast till quite a bit further N.Have to see if the NOGAPS does the same.
http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html
The CMC is finally dealing with Ivan throwing him back into the GOM.I think JBis right on this one.
| Fletch |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:59 AM |
|
Re: 11 PM Discussion out also
|
By the way, anyone with Dolphin/Steeler tix, they are thinking of moving the game to Sat night.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 03:59 AM |
|
|
|
Here's Some Humor You Can't Refuse...
|
Here's some humor: I turned 39 today (for the first time) and now I can officially say that I have arthritis.
Some more: at my oldest son's game last weekend, the "waterboy" who was carrying the 2-ton water sprayers that I use to spray down the kids (and coaches as needed) dropped the doggone thing on my toe! OUCH! However, it didn't really hurt until later on......
While watching the Miss USA pageant I decided to put my old modeling moves into play...and while twirling around the kitchen like an elephant, I missed my mark (by like a 1/2 mile) and promptly stubbed aforementioned toe into the refrigerator.
Now I know why my father didn't name me after his sister:
GRACE
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 04:00 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Meanwhile back at the Batcave
|
Recon is airborne. About an hour ETA to Jeanne. Should be there around 05-06Z.
They are tasked with a 0600Z center fix.
| Kent |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 04:10 AM |
|
Re: 11 PM Discussion out also
|
Have I seen the porn star women on the a.m. news?
Gawd yes! I thought I was the only one who thought that though. Thought it was just one of those catty competitive things we women go through sometimes. I mostly can't stand to even watch them...except that one lady is starting to grow on me. I think she is on channel 4? Kinda light brown hair. I think she is getting better....at least I don't cringe from embarrassment for the female race when I see her anymore.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 04:35 AM |
|
|
|
Re: 11 PM Discussion out also
|
OOZ GFS Doesnt look much different.. What do you think Scott ?
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 04:37 AM |
|
Re: 11 PM Discussion out also
|
I would like to know what data is going into the model runs right now since I dont think the Gulf Stream Jet has sampled the surrounding enviroment. Nogaps is still the same. GFS about the same near Jupiter then moving NNW or N almost immediatly. Jason or Clark might have info on the Gulf Jet to see if they went in.
| BeachBum |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 04:38 AM |
|
|
Re: 11 PM Discussion out also
|
Quote:
I wish the NHC or Skeetobite or anyone could show those rounded turns instead of straight lines. It is especially important in this case as the storm is turning right at the coastline.
Is the NRL track what you want?
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 04:40 AM |
|
Re: 11 PM Discussion out also
|
CMC has moved further north as already posted, but It was initialized on the wnw run and pretty much keeps it almost wnw till it nears 80W then brushes the Cape and along the coast from there. I think its too far north but we will see.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 04:42 AM |
|
Re: 11 PM Discussion out also
|
Ill be away for next hour till 130am eastern. Ill respond later. Hopefully right now Jason or Clark will be on to answer anything.
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 12:25 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Crow Munching Forecast
|
It's very well done so I see no reason to redo it just for a different site. Makes sense to me.
I can't imagine what these events must have been like before radar and satellites. Can you imagine being a settler here in FL during hurricane season and one of these beasts moves thru your town...I love technology...