MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 08:43 PM |
Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Jim Williams and his Hurricane City Broadcast from 8PM till 11PM -- Link to Real Audio -- updated!
Let Jim know where you are from.. Use this link to listen
Hurricane Warnings are now up for the same watch area as earlier for Jeanne, it appears Jeanne may skirt along the coast from south to north.
Now the strength... Jeanne has gotten better organized today and is poised to strengthen a bit. There is a chance that it will landfall as a category 3 storm. I already think it will be stronger than Frances at landfall, I'm just not sure how much so. NHC Forecaster Stacy Stewart mentions the fact that the sea surfance tempatures are 5 degrees cooler on the eastern side of the storm's eye than on the west edge of the eye as measured by the Hurricane Hunter Aircraft. This is fairly significant as the water on the eastern edge has been upwelled from cooler, deeper waters by it meandering in that position previously. It has a greater chance to strengthen as it moves westward.
The track is dependant on a high off the Chesapeake and what happens to the ridge around it. The position of the ridge tomorrow is critical in determining how far west Jeanne will get.
Watches now are up north of that to Altamaha in Georgia. So a good section of coastal area may see hurricane force winds the next few days.
More to come shortly.
Event Related Links
You can find links to County Emergency Management offices at floridadisaster.org
Jeanne Color Satellite
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
All Current Hurricane Local Statements
Melbourne (East Central Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop
Miami (South Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop
Jacksonville (North Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop
Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time
Karl Models -- This image animated over time
Lisa Models -- This image animated over time
Jeanne Sphagehtti Model from BoatUS/Hurricane Alley
Jeanne Plots from Weather Underground
Jeanne Satelllite Image with track/radar Overlays
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Jacksonville.
Melbourne
General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps
Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 08:52 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Thanks for the new thread...again
That 5:00 discussion will say it all...and guess who's writing it!
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 08:56 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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***This issue has been resolved! Thanx so much for your advice and concern!***
Mods/Admin sorry to be off topic or in the wrong forum but it a bit urgent. My stepmom went out of town to a wedding leaving the handicap accessible car at the airport. I can't take my disabled dad anywhere in my truck so we're riding it out here. I need a generator for his medical equipment and I'm striking out everywhere, even the little shops. I'm desperate. From what I understand no one has had them for weeks.
I hadn't gotten one earlier because my sister has one and I figured we'd stay there as we did for Charley and Frances but I forgot that she'd have to leave the car at the airport. Any ideas? Again sorry for the off topic I'll be good today as opposed to last night.
Maybe any info should be PM'd to me so as not to clutter the board?
Thank you!
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 08:56 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Well, one thing we can enjoy, safely, is the ULL sling-shotting Karl quickly to the north, and the ULL wrapping in behind him. That looks to be one strong extratropical system.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:00 PM |
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ANYONE GOT A GENERATOR--IMPORTANT!
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Mods/Admin sorry to be off topic or in the wrong forum but it a bit urgent. My stepmom went out of town to a wedding leaving the handicap accessible car at the airport. I can't take my disabled dad anywhere in my truck so we're riding it out here. I need a generator for his medical equipment and I'm striking out everywhere, even the little shops. I'm desperate. From what I understand no one has had them for weeks.
See the post above...urgent!!!
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:04 PM |
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5:00 Discussion
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http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/hur_dis_nt1.html
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:06 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Is there a Special Needs shelter you can contact? Or else contact your local Emergency management people..or even your local fire Dept.
You might also try the Deltona Hospital (can't remember it's name) or even Central Florida Regional in Sanford
(This isn't letting me log in.. I think I'm in a loop or something)
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:09 PM |
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Re: 5:00 Discussion
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The 2 troubling things are, that it is starting to strengthen, and the farther west models are probably handling the high better. While I don't expect the track of the ETA to be "the one", it is worth paying attention to its details on the surrounding pattern. It is times like these I wish RAOBS were taken 4 times per day and fed into the models.
I expect the eye to become much better-defined tonight.
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:09 PM |
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Re: 5:00 Discussion
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Hmmm...very interesting. Particularly this part:
Quote:
"The NOGAPS and GFDN models have been very consistent with this type of track the past 36 hours. This scenario is somewhat disconcerting because those are the only models that take the large high/ridge near the Delmarva southward to the Outer Banks of North Carolina before moving it to a position near Bermuda in 36 hours. The other models quickly weaken the high and move it southeastward. The exact location of the center of the high/ridge over the next 12-36 hours will determine how far west Jeanne will move before it begins to make the turn northward. Special 18z upper-air data indicate the center the high has not weakened and has actually pushed southward and is now located just east of wallops islands in the southern Delmarva. This would suggest...at least in the short term...that the NOGAPS-GFDN-ETA solution is handling the steering pattern the best. As a result...no significant change was made to the previous forecast track."
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:09 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Brian, These guys had 'em when no one else did. Worth a call.
CALL US! (407) 834-2106 - Fax: (407) 834-4067
Outside of Florida: 1-800-249-5591
The UTTER GUYS - 10 Keyes Court - Sanford, FL 32773-6074
Really unhappy now that I'm in the bullseye.
Mr. U.
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:10 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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I'd have to actually get him to the special needs shelter which I can't do in my truck. He's had several strokes and his left side is pretty useless for moving and my truck is way too high for him to get in (he's over 350lbs). Then I doubt any shelter would have a bed he could use given his size.
Called emergency number and no one has any idea about who has generators, FEMA just says high call volume and disc the call. Strike on red cross as well.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:15 PM |
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NexSat
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NexSat is a testbed program for the next generation of GOES satellite, using the Aqua-MODIS sensor (which is what will be on the new GOES)...
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:15 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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There is a special needs shelter I believe at the Orange County County Convention Center. You maybe able to call the Orange County EOC, or possibly one in your area or a local hospital to assist. Generator supplies have not been replenished at the local home depots and Lowes
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:15 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Just called and they do have them, however I doubt I'll be able to sell a kidney to be able to afford them by the time Jeanne hits. I have no credit cards because I believe they are evil (not really I just have awful credit from my stupid teenage years). Thank you so much for the number I'm guessing this is going to be my story this cane....
| LanceW |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:16 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Repost from the other thread..
Anyone ever use http://www.nwhhc.com/ They seem to be on track lately (the last couple of storms). They do not agree with the official track. Also, looks like it sped up to 14 MPH...
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:17 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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>>> Just called and they do have them, however I doubt I'll be able to sell a kidney to be able to afford them by the time Jeanne hits.
Can't you implore a friend or neighbor to help you out...from what I understand, you'll be reimbursed for the generator (in certain circumstances...yours sounds like it would qualify). Anyone? Anyone?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:18 PM |
NHC 5 PM Discussion
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Well..is anyone else having trouble following NHC's logic path on Jeannes track on the 5 PM. Seems like that the text supported my earlier thoughts on the NOGAPS (see Jeanne, evil sister of Frances) but then stated this..
Special 18z upper-air data indicate the
center the high has not weakened and has actually pushed southward
and is now located just east of wallops islands in the southern
Delmarva. This would suggest...at least in the short term...that
the NOGAPS-GFDN-ETA solution is handling the steering pattern the
best. As a result...no significant change was made to the previous
forecast track.
Huh? is this confusing or what? their logic would suggest a westward shift, me thinks.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:25 PM |
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Re: NHC 5 PM Discussion
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That's my read, and on the other thread, I said I felt the GFS was still too far to the right, even with its westward shift this morning.
It seems that it takes the models almost until a day or two before landfall before they really start to latch onto things, and I have no reason to believe this is any different.
The 0z runs have a chance to show improvement as the system should be better defined, and I am guessing there will be more dropsonde data incorporated.
| eulogia |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:25 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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I can tell you for sure that FEMA will reimburse you for the generator. We were reimbursed (Hurricane Charley) and it is *not* based on financial need - at least as far as the generator reimbursement goes. Of course, the drawback is that you have to buy the thing in the first place.
| Dawn |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:26 PM |
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Re: ANYONE GOT A GENERATOR--IMPORTANT!
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what is the max running watts and starting watts do you need. I work at Home Depot and will start calling all the stores within a 50 mile radius - Ilive in Pinellas Park - how far are you willing to go.
If I find one I will need to put on will-call - we will need to PM.
What is your max dollar amount or does that matter, last group of generators our store got ranged in the area of 499.00 to 1019.00.
Dawn
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:26 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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I don't know anyone that could loan me that kind of money. The past storms have set people back enough trying to keep their houses dry and together. I've heard horror stories about FEMA denying truly needy people and sending checks to those who didn't really need it so I'm a bit nervous, but even if I knew they would reimburse me I'd need the money now.. and I can't get thru to them anyway..
It's times like these I flat out hate my inability to manage money.
I'm not close to my dad in any way but he is in my care and if anything happened to him I don't know what I'd do...
Volusia Co. EOC gave me special needs shelter in our area but as I mentioned he needs a very sturdy bed...I'm not worried about damage to the house or anything, God has His hand over our house as was proven during Charley and Frances but no power is just too much...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:26 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Bryan,
Call me at [REMOVED AS REQUESTED]
Mod please delete this post when Byan sees it or in 30 minutes,
Thanks,
Mr. U
| Terri |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:29 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Quote:
I'd have to actually get him to the special needs shelter which I can't do in my truck. He's had several strokes and his left side is pretty useless for moving and my truck is way too high for him to get in (he's over 350lbs). Then I doubt any shelter would have a bed he could use given his size.
Called emergency number and no one has any idea about who has generators, FEMA just says high call volume and disc the call. Strike on red cross as well.
I'm not sure if this will be of any help to you, but perhaps it will. I just called Home Depot in Savannah, GA, and they have generators in stock. Here's their phone number: 1-912-921-0158. It would be a bit of a drive for you, but they are in stock.
| eulogia |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:30 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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I found this website and it looks like they will come to pick you up and possibly they will have a proper bed. Get in touch with them!!!!!
http://volusia.org/storm/specialneeds.htm
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:31 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Bryan,
Call me at [REMOVED AS REQUESTED]
Mod please delete this post when Byan sees it or in 30 minutes,
Thanks,
Mr. U
BRYAN DID YOU GET THAT NUMBER?
| Dawn |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:36 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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My husband just suggested to call Hospice and see if they can help. They are a great group and I bet they will find a solution.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:37 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Quote:
BRYAN DID YOU GET THAT NUMBER?
I put it into a PM and removed it as quickly as I could, so yep he got it.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:42 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Check out the survey on the front of http://jacksonville.com
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:43 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Thanks Mike! Figured that's what happened...
HEY EVERYONE...WANT TO SUPPORT THE SITE!
GO TO http://www.jacksonville.com/ AND VOTE FOR YOUR FAVORITE HURRICANE SITE!
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:46 PM |
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recon
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Storm JEANNE: Observed By AF #861
Storm #11 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 94KT (108.1mph 174.1km/h) In NW Quadrant At 1922Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 84.6KT (97.3mph 156.7km/h) *
Misc Remarks: MAX FL TEMP 15C 029/018NM FROM FL CNTR.
Date/Time of Recon Report: Friday, September 24, 2004 16:09:00 (Fri, 24 Sep 2004 21:09:00 GMT)
Position of the center: 26° 22' N 73° 42' W (26.4°N 73.7°W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2779m (Normal: 3011)
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 75KT (86.25MPH 138.9km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 025nm (28.75miles) From Center At Bearing 026°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 92KT (105.8mph 170.4km/h) From 114°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 033nm (37.9 miles) From Center At Bearing 030°
Minimum pressure: 964mb (28.47in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: CLOSED WALL
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Circular , 50nm (57.5 mi 92.6km) wide
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): Surface 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.1nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 2nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds
Just a notch south of the previous recon (only 3 minutes).... for all practical purposes due west.... also looks to be getting better organized on the IR loops.... also looks to be increasing in speed just a tad... I'd estimate around 13-14 mph
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:47 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Quote:
Anyone ever use http://www.nwhhc.com/ They seem to be on track lately (the last couple of storms). They do not agree with the official track.
That track is unreal !!!!!!!! It literally plays pong off of Miami, Tampa, and Jacksonville. Those are Florida's 3 most populated cities. That would be an absolute disaster like no other.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:48 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Thanks all,
Brian found out he can get the handicapped enabled car so all is well.
For others in Central Florida - the cheapest utter guys had was $1200 but they are there. FEMA reimbursed me but I bought it AFTER Charlie.
Mr. U.
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:48 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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I did thank you! And I have great news. No one tells me anything...my sister convinced my stepmom to leave the car at her place and she took my stepmom to the airport. It's all worked out I'll pick the car up tomorrow and make the huge move over to her place and get him setup. I didn't call her initially because I know she'd offer to loan the money and but she's going thru a lot right now (divorce, newborn etc...) and I didn't want to burden her. I just with someone had told me about that change in plans.
I can't thank y'all enough for your help. I will call and buy a generator after the storm this time tho. I swore I would after the last 2 but that fell thru. Thank you guys so much!
Mr. U nice talking and thanx again for the number. Hospice..hadn't thought of that thank you and that link will be saved just in case...you guys are amazing and now I'm going to donate again
| LanceW |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:48 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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That is what I thought too. Guess she just wants to make sure all of Florida has a bad weekend...
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:50 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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How updated is that track???
Looks like it could be from a couple of days ago...
| LanceW |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:50 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Which track? The one I posted? That is from their 5 PM update.
Thanks...that can't be good...how accurate have they been with past canes this year vs. NHC?
They were pretty close on the storms I tracked this year, just about dead on I believe.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:55 PM |
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Something real strange will have to happen
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For Jeanne not to make a direct hit on Florida... stranger things have happen in the past, and storms always have a surprise or two prior to landfall, but after the last recon, and watching this thing slowly pick up speed, intensity, and continue to head on that due west motion, it will take a miracle for Florida to dodge this one... just a question of where .... I still like the space coast (KSC/Titusville area) as where the eye may go inland... but it keeps picking up speed and going due west, areas south will definitely be under the gun...
| Kent |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:56 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Here's a thought...
A friend of the family is here from college. FSU. She says Brian Norcross graduated from there....
Maybe he has an in with the FSU people and thats why he is so darn good!
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:57 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Vote cast! We have a long way to go!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:58 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Yes that Mia/Tampa/Jax track would be scary, but not "a disaster like no other".. don't forget those winds will dissipate considerably once on shore.. High winds to be sure, but not devastation to 3 cities. The winds in Tampa barely reached 40 mph from Frances by the time it got there from the east coast. Not trying to minimize the situation, but trying to dampen the hyperbole a bit.
| RedingtonBeachGuy |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:58 PM |
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Generator
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Sam's Club has generators up there. If that doesn't work, I have a Coleman 5,000 watt he could use and I e-mailed him about it. My only problem is I can't get it to him until Tuesday which sounds too late. If he wants to buy it instead (new in box), I paid $468 plus tax for it and it's still in the box (box is torn a bit though). But, big question - does he need 'clean' power for the medical equipment?
whoops - sorry - missed the all clear post he made.
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:00 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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I would make that drive if I hadn't worked it out. You are amazing thank you so much!
Now I just need to decide if that road trip would be enough fun
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:02 PM |
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Re: Generator
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Saw Tom Terry(Channel 9 O-Town) discussing the GFDL/GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS models. He threw out the GFDL which still had Jeanne making the turn off the coast. Also, said he was shying away from the GFS because both of them(that and the GFDL) have had problems handling the high pressure ridge, and they've both had Jeanne moving much slower at this point in time. Basically he was saying a combination of the NOGAPS/UKMET and even the ETA(though he said it too is not as reliable with tropical systems) could pan out to be the best track. He was definitely emphasizing that everyone keep an eye on any type of shift to the west.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:05 PM |
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1800Z ETA.. south fl
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http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETA_18z/eta36.html
ETA has it in south fl in 36 hours.... for what its worth
other source for models...
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html
| Breeezy |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:05 PM |
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Re: Generator
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Where does the NOGAPS and UKMET take it?
| SoonerShawn |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:06 PM |
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Upper low in BOC
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I hope it doesn't ever work down to the surface because it looks to be moving ENE towards Florida. It will more than likely push some of that moisture towards Florida anyway.
Dec 1 can't come quick enough this year!
| nandav |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:06 PM |
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Re: Generator
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So even SW Florida is hardly out of the clear yet... even if we just get the tropical storm-type winds... Guess I'll have to stay tuned!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:11 PM |
Jeanne Track
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Did anyone see the 18Z GFS? It has Jeanne hitting WPB to the north side of Lake O, & then north up the center of the state.. a definite west shift...& by the way..the 12 Z GFDL looks out to lunch..
| Ronn |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:12 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Quote:
The winds in Tampa barely reached 40 mph from Frances by the time it got there from the east coast.
Frances actually held together quite well over the peninsula for such a slow moving system...probably due to its large size. My location in Pinellas County received 55mph gusts from Frances. What most people missed (and was under-reported by the media) was the onshore SW winds when Frances entered the GOM. I recorded a wind gust of 70mph at Madeira Beach along the Pinellas County coastline with a hand-held anemometer.
Jeanne is a faster moving system than Frances. As a result, if it does traverse the peninsula, it will maintain a higher intensity farther inland than Frances did. This will especially be true if Jeanne landfalls as a stronger storm than Frances. If Frances moves farther south than the current official track, the Tampa Bay area could receive even worse conditions than it did from Frances.
Ronn
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SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:16 PM |
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Jeanne - NHC Advisory 45
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Latest path up close & personal
New users:
These maps are based on the forecast coordinates from the National Hurricane Center. Do not focus strictly on the path. Large errors may occur. All areas under a warning must prepare.
If a watch or warning is issued for your area, follow the advice & directions of your local news source or official weather outlet.
The wind fields depicted are based on maritime winds and are not as large or concentric over land.
Full size image available here: www.skeetobite.com/weather
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:19 PM |
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Re: Something real strange will have to happen
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True, Frank... the faster Jeanne moves the more lilklihood for it to strike slightly further south and penetrate well into the peninsula.
Last night I felt that some folks were stretching things when they predicted a GOM reentry. With Jeanne speeding up and the center of the high continuing a push southward, as noted in the NHC update, this is no longer looking too far fetched.
IMO, those comments in the NHC 5:00 p.m. discussion have set up a possible westward track revision in the next update or two.
AdmittedHacker
(still without a witty quote to fill this space)
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:20 PM |
Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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I Concur - i live in hernando bch (40 m north of clearwater) - i had gusts from frances to near hurricane force from the north on day1 and from the south on day 2. 71 mph from my roof mounted anometer. 12 in of rain . 28.91 in lowest pressure.. jeanne will be stronger, move quicker, and i'm afraid higher wind damage
| RedingtonBeachGuy |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:20 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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my home had 40 year old concrete tile ripped from the roof in Frances in what our insurance company suggested was an 85 mph down burst. So, you are right.. people shouldn't think that just because the eyewall isn't right over their head they won't see wind related problems. They might. Thanks for the reality check Ronn.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:20 PM |
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Re: Jeanne Track
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Yes, and the 18z GFS is continuing its own trend of going left.
I think it is finally starting to catch on, and will not be surprised to see the track stay farther inland than currently forecast. N.C. could be in the right quad, and they have had their own problems this year also. A farther inland track would cause more weakening, but nobody up here needs heavy rains either. A prolonged period of onshore winds will likely pile up on the south-facing beaches of N.C. For those farther north, another heavy rain event.
Florida sees it first, and maybe strongest, the rest of the coast should feel it also.
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:21 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Bryan Norcros' conversation with Max Mayfield makes a more concerned now about PBC/Broward area. Mayfield just said "I feel better now than before about having the Hurricane Warnings down to Florida City."
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:23 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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This storm just keeps on amazing me. Jeanne's over the water temp that could support a tropical storm but yet it's mataining everything all so well. This storm is exteremly efficent at maintaining itself, It's really going to strengthen once it's over the Gulf stream.
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:32 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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My interpretation from that last interview is that the NHC is realizing the strength of that high might actually jive with the NOGAPS et al. model solutions. Their jets and weather stations across the Southeast US have been sending baloons and sensors into the high pressure this afternoon and into this evening.
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:33 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Quote:Using the car analogy; It takes less gas to maintain highway speed than to accellerate to that speed. So, it doesn't take as much heat to maintain or only gradually weaken (coasting) than it would to build it to the same level. While Jeanne couldn't build to its current level with those temps, it might 'coast' down quite slowly. As it isn't really fighting shear or other killers, it seems likely this is why.
This storm just keeps on amazing me. Jeanne's over the water temp that could support a tropical storm but yet it's mataining everything all so well. This storm is exteremly efficent at maintaining itself, It's really going to strengthen once it's over the Gulf stream.
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:34 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Outflow seems to be looking better.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:40 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Justin in Miami,
They always send weather baloons up at weather stations, where do you think they get the isobars, isotherms and all that other good stuff? The NOGAPS and UKMET are yes trending to the stronger side with the ridge but then you have the GFS/AVN with the weaker side to it. My forecast is a hybird of the UKMET and the GFS because the GFS likes to break down ridges out of no where and cause a whole bunch of problems. The UKMET is has a general rightward bias and sometimes makes ridges stronger then they normally are but it is an overall good model with thermodynamics and everything.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:50 PM |
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Ivan the 3rd?
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I know everyone is talking about Jeanne for the time being but Ivan could come back to a cane in my opinion. If that surface trough matains it's self and it tracks into that very warm water we could be seeing a strong storm. I'm tracking the cloud mass for sure because all we need is another arguement on weather it should be called Ivan or not. Back to Jeanne! P.S could someone post a link to the shear models, I seem to have lost it?
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:50 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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I don't think I was clear in that last post...Max Mayfield is feeling a little concerned about this:
"ONLY THE NOGAPS...GFDN...AND ETA
MODELS TAKE JEANNE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE
NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS TYPE OF
TRACK THE PAST 36 HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING
BECAUSE THOSE ARE THE ONLY MODELS THAT TAKE THE LARGE HIGH/RIDGE
NEAR THE DELMARVA SOUTHWARD TO THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA
BEFORE MOVING IT TO A POSITION NEAR BERMUDA IN 36 HOURS. THE OTHER
MODELS QUICKLY WEAKEN THE HIGH AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARD. THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF THE HIGH/RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 12-36 HOURS
WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR WEST JEANNE WILL MOVE BEFORE IT BEGINS TO
MAKE THE TURN NORTHWARD. SPECIAL 18Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE
CENTER THE HIGH HAS NOT WEAKENED AND HAS ACTUALLY PUSHED SOUTHWARD
AND IS NOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF WALLOPS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHERN
DELMARVA. THIS WOULD SUGGEST...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM...THAT
THE NOGAPS-GFDN-ETA SOLUTION IS HANDLING THE STEERING PATTERN THE
BEST. AS A RESULT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK."
THey are getting more data that suggests these models are on to something. The 11pm advisory will probably have this information in the modeling and I am anxious to see the 00Z model runs.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:51 PM |
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Poll
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Don't forget to vote in the poll:
http://jacksonville.com/
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:51 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Quote:The big differance is that this time, they are taking measurements from special flights, not the 'normal' hurricane hunter flights, but flights dispatched well north of the hurricane in the area where the hight currently affecting the storm and south west into the 'nose' of the high. They are trying to measure the strength and shape of the high way out over the water in addition to the usual baloon soundings from lan. This is being reported on several TV stations so I give his report credibility.
Justin in Miami,
They always send weather baloons up at weather stations, where do you think they get the isobars, isotherms and all that other good stuff? The NOGAPS and UKMET are yes trending to the stronger side with the ridge but then you have the GFS/AVN with the weaker side to it. My forecast is a hybird of the UKMET and the GFS because the GFS likes to break down ridges out of no where and cause a whole bunch of problems. The UKMET is has a general rightward bias and sometimes makes ridges stronger then they normally are but it is an overall good model with thermodynamics and everything.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:53 PM |
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Re: Poll
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I voted already, I want you guys to win!
| robynsmom |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:56 PM |
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Re: Generator
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go to www.wunderground.com
Click on Tropical/Hurricane and they have the graphic models there for you to see.
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:57 PM |
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Re: Poll
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Quote:You have my proxy to vote for me as well.
I voted already, I want you guys to win!
| Heather |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 10:59 PM |
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Re: Poll
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I tried to vote again, but it locked me out with an already voted error. They're on to me!!
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:00 PM |
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Re: Poll
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Quote:
I voted already, I want you guys to win!
Keith...thanks!
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:01 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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That will most likely improve the results of the models, more layers of the atmosphere to judge how the high will change over time. But sometimes quanity is not always rewarded with better forecasts, take the Richardson experiment for example.
| SoonerShawn |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:01 PM |
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Keith234
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No Way! IMO, as long as that upper low is in the gulf there won't be anything developing. Not only that I don't think his circulation will ever get back into the gulf. Accuweather has even backed off on him back in the gulf, I think?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:01 PM |
Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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GFS 18Z trended west (now thru the center of the state ) - & the NOGAPS, Canadian, ETA, and to some extent UKMET have latched on to more west movement into FL. my thoughts are WPB to Tampa area and then up the Gulf Coast - not a good scenario for where I live in hernando bch
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:02 PM |
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Re: Poll
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Quote:fhooy!
I tried to vote again, but it locked me out with an already voted error. They're on to me!!
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:02 PM |
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The richardson experiment?
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Quote:
That will most likely improve the results of the models, more layers of the atmosphere to judge how the high will change over time. But sometimes quanity is not always rewarded with better forecasts, take the Richardson experiment for example.
Not familiar with that...care to share?
EDIT: CFHC now in third place, with 9%, trailing only NHC (50%) and wunderground (12%)...of course it's a statistical tie with Intellicast & TWC but WE'RE BEATING ACCUWX (6%), HURRICANE CITY (0%) AND ATWC (0%)!!!
C'mon troops...lets overtake Intellicast...got a feeling NHC will take Florida's electoral votes...lets play Nader!
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:04 PM |
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Re: Poll
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I'm not really sure but I did try to vote more then once. My computer is hidden from everything, sometimes I can't get onto this website. My brother knows more then me about this; it's his computer but then again he's not home!
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:04 PM |
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Re: Poll
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I love Firefox! Opera is my favorite tho.
| Bioman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:07 PM |
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Re: Jeanne - NHC Advisory 45
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lol thats right over my house south of DeLand in Volusia county....thanks skeetobite...im not showing my mom that graphic! She would freak
| nandav |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:08 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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We're now under a Tropical Storm Watch:
HURRICANE JEANNE SLOWLY APPROACHING FLORIDA'S EAST COAST... ... TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM LEE COUNTY NORTHWARD TO ANCLOTE KEYS INCLUDING THE TAMPA BAY AREA... ... INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH FOR SUMTER... POLK... HIGHLANDS AND HARDEE COUNTIES...
... AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... CITRUS... CHARLOTTE... DESOTO... HERNANDO... HILLSBOROUGH... LEE... LEVY... MANATEE... PASCO... PINELLAS... SARASOTA... HARDEE... HIGHLANDS... POLK... SUMTER...
... WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM BONITA BEACH NORTH TO ANCLOTE KEYS. AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SUMTER... POLK... HIGHLANDS AND HARDEE COUNTIES.
And it's another normal weekend in Florida...
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:09 PM |
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Re: Poll *DELETED*
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Post deleted by LI Phil
| Bioman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:12 PM |
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Re: Poll
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i could only vote once also
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:12 PM |
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Re: The richardson experiment?
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The Richardson's experiment was performed by British met. Lewis Fry Richardson in the early 1900's . He used mathematics to represent the atmosphere because it is physical, prob the first one to do that and think of it not as linear but multi-dimensional. He sent up weather ballons measured the atmosphere at many different levels and collected it, applied mathematic equations etc and came up with a forecast that wasn't right. There was too much info to handle prob even today, we solve for one variable and we come up with another. If the NHC collects to much info then the computers will simply not handle it properly and therefore make mistakes, nothing is perfect; as the models are only as good as the people that made them.
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:12 PM |
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Re: Poll
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If any help is needed I'm offering...just PM me. I'll be glued to the site all night...(that's not a threat, it's a promise..at least until I fall asleep at the keys)
| ROB IN PA |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:13 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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This might be wild shot in dark but does anybody think this could be ala betsy in 64 that headed to miami from bahama's then dove south to key largo and out to GOM. It just seems this is not going turn north this time. I am new this and board and really thank all for your knowledge and for having this great site.
| Bioman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:14 PM |
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Re: Poll
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glad to have you on board again bryan. was supposed to have a football game tonight but volusia cancelled all their activities today. Im grateful everything worked out for you today.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:16 PM |
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Re: Keith234
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The ULL is first of all backing off and 2nd will provide the instability to harbor a LLC. I just don't think we've seen the last of this thing, I might be pushing it though we'll see...
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:18 PM |
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Re: Poll
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You and me both. Are you planning to H down in Volusia?
(NOTE: H rhymes with bunker and makes me dry heave when I hear it..)
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:19 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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Betsy was a very simliar storm to this and it's a good analogy, so is Dennis. The only difference is that I don't think it's headed towards Miami.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:20 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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An observation at 1700 from 35N 83W
Low level clouds NONE
Mid Level clouds THICKENING FROM ESE
High Level clouds THIN CIRRUS FROM WEST
48 hours ago ONLY HIGH CIRRUS FROM EAST
So, make of it what you will but it seems at 35N the High may be getting blown to the east.
******************
Weather? Whether the wind blows from the east or the west, to north or the south, and you can pretty much tell what the weather's gonna be like.
***************************
Prayerfull thoughts for my friends in Florida who are gonna get wind from every which way in a coupla day. Good Luck.
| Bioman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:23 PM |
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Re: Poll
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my other half works at disney on the rideout crew. I might just stay there. He went thru Hugo in charleston when he was like 14 and is terrified of hurricanes.
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:26 PM |
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Re: Poll
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Disney should be pretty safe. Wherever you are, stay safe!
| StormKrone |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:27 PM |
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Re: Poll
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Quote:
i could only vote once also
Oh, well, I tried...
SK
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:30 PM |
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Re: Poll
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I voted for CFHC!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:32 PM |
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Re: Poll
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Thanks for your support!
Thanks,
John
| nandav |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:32 PM |
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Re: Poll
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SO did coming home from work and voting on my home computer.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:33 PM |
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Re: Poll
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Thanks for all your support!
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:33 PM |
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Re: Poll
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We took some away from the NHC and surpassed wxunderground...woohoo!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:34 PM |
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Re: Poll
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I will vote for my husband!
| Bioman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:36 PM |
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Re: Poll
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i wonder what the total storm damage from bonnie, charlie, frances and Ivan is for florida?
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:38 PM |
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Re: Poll
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I have an idea for the site altho I have no idea what kind of programming would be needed. I think it would be fun to let a few members make their own spaghetti model. BAM, UKMET, SCOTT, MODINLI...ok I'll stop talking...
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:39 PM |
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Re: Poll
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Quote:
i wonder what the total storm damage from bonnie, charlie, frances and Ivan is for florida?
*puts pinky to lower lip*
ONE MILLION DOLLARS!
ROFLMAO...can you hang here all night?
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:42 PM |
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Re: Poll
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I voted for CFHC on the poll.
Bill
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:43 PM |
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Re: Poll
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Once again I open a can of worms with that post, sorry guys.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:44 PM |
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Thoughts from Lakeland
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Both Denis Phillips and Tom Terry are harping on the "you folks in Polk county REALLY need to keep an eye on this track...because IF it shifts to the west, your weather will be much worse than it is already forecasted to be."
I don't believe that people in my area (Lakeland Highlands) even know that Jeanne is coming. When I went to Publix, there is water stocked from floor to ceiling and they have batteries ON SALE.
I would expect a track shift to the west at 11pm and after that there really isn't much wiggle room for Florida, unless something just takes a big chomp out of the High (like maybe the shark from JAWS. I still believe it will turn to the NW but not until after landfall and I still believe it *may* exit off the west coast of Florida...although, that MAY be stretching it just a bit.
BTW...if anyone here in Polk County has access to Channel 20 (Orlando's Channel 9) Tom Terry is coming out with the forecasts as soon as he gets them from NHC.
I did hear they opened 8 shelters in Polk County. I would imagine the high school across the street was one of them.
Hubby and the kids went to the football game, so it is nice and QUIET for the time being.
This is pretty cool: my brother's girlfriend works at TWC and she got me set up on NOTIFY! I got a phone call at 4:49pm from Jim Cantore telling me that my area...Lakeland...was under a TS Watch. Of course, it was a recorded message, but it's still really cool to hear HIS voice telling ME about the Severe Weather alert.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:47 PM |
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Re: Thoughts from Lakeland
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The Site is going down for about 5 minutes folks at 7:50, going to move the database portion of the system to the new server.
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:48 PM |
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Re: Thoughts from Lakeland
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Thanx for the warning! I'll take my anti-stress meds now. And thanx for your hard work!
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:48 PM |
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Re: Thoughts from Lakeland
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Phil
I plan on trying. Being in the bullseye still makes me more nervous than I was for Frances.
We'll see how things go
I mean we all need to laugh!
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:50 PM |
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Re: Poll
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Quote:
I am all for it. I am embarassed that anyone on this board would be so immature as to cheat on the poll.
Bill
I am shocked, SHOCKED to find that gambling is going on.
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:52 PM |
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Re: Poll
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Ok, Mr. Rick
Then again, who would be rick?
Anyways, this isn't exactly the picture i'd figure i would be watching a week ago.
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~rickk/jeanne.html
Indeed, very nice - thanks for all the work, mike.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:56 PM |
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Database move complete
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Painless move.... good to go on that. Now pages are on the old machine but the database is on the new server. Should notice some improvements.
Will move the pages themselves after Jeanne.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 11:57 PM |
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Re: Database move complete
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That was quick!
Thanks again.
BTW, you don't know Jack!
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:05 AM |
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Re: Database move complete
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Who's rick, who's Jack am I missing something or is that some type of joke?
BOTH
| Redbird |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:06 AM |
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Re: Database move complete
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Uh Jack Daniells.
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:07 AM |
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Re: Database move complete
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And there was much rejoicing.
I'm heading down to the Cape to rescue a vehicle before tomorrow's festivities. That way I can start playing the hunker down drinking game with the wife.
"hunker down" - 1 drink
"eye wall" - 2 drinks
"feeder band" - 2 drinks
"hammer" - 5 drinks (hammer as in "I've nicknamed this part of the storm the hammer")
That's all we have - I guess there should also be an honorary full drink (finish the bottle) for any time someone brings up a bad analogy involving the Titanic too.
Likewise, you can probably add an honorary social drink for any newscaster making a really poor mixed metaphor (I remember with frances, some poor person said "it's really beginning to sound like lightning out here").
(remember folks - don't drink and drive - it's just stupid)
But legal-aged drinking with the company of friends is FUN! (if handled in moderation)
With the above game - you're good to go within an hour at a minimum because there's nothing storm casters love to say more than "hunker down"!
Be right back!
| PFSThunder |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:11 AM |
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Miami Radar
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Miami Long Range Radar is catching a outer, outer, outer rain band. Something to watch as the next two days progress and the bands get thicker.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:12 AM |
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Re: Database move complete
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Oh, well I wouldn't know, then again I shouldn't know but then again maybe I do
I'm not over the "drinking" age, but that's like the speed limit!
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:13 AM |
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Re: Miami Radar
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That's way outer. The range is only 246 nautical miles with Nexrad. Divide that by 8mph!
Did you mean "under the drinking age"? I didn't know there was a top limit!
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:17 AM |
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Re: Miami Radar
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First of all..how dare you defile this sacred forum with talk of math...
Secondly, are nautical mile different than regular miles? If so, then wouldn't 8mph be based on regular miles and therefore throw a monkeywrench into the whole equation?
Third, I'm getting a headache now..time to play the H down drinking game
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:17 AM |
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Re: Database move complete
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The 8:00 p.m. update put Jeanne 370 miles from Ft. Pierce moving west at 12 mph... putting landfall at about 2:00 a.m. Sunday morning...
AdmittedHacker
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:20 AM |
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Thanks for your support
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I had to perform some "surgery" on some prior posts regarding the poll...you may wish to re-read pages 3-4 for a laugh.
Remember, you may ONLY vote once in the poll...
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:20 AM |
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Re: Database move complete
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Guys lets stop the drinking age thing, some people get very angry when there's a hurricane going to landfall in Florida. Infact very angry, some e-mails that I've gotten haven't been to pretty! So back to Jeanne.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:22 AM |
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Re: Miami Radar
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Okay I give.
246 nautical miles is 283.27 miles (regular).
283miles divided by 12mph(current track speed) is 23 hours from the last advisory, til Miami has the rain over them.
That is total speculation of course.
I noticed this statement in the last Advisory. If you know of Jewish neighbors, please keep them advised if at all possible!!
WE ARE REMINDED THAT FROM SUNDOWN TONIGHT UNTIL SUNDOWN SATURDAY IS
YOM KIPPUR...A SOLEMN JEWISH HOLIDAY. SOME OF YOUR JEWISH NEIGHBORS
IN THE WATCH AND WARNING AREAS OBSERVING YOM KIPPUR WILL NOT BE
LISTENING TO RADIOS OR WATCHING TV...AND MAY NOT BE AWARE OF THE
HURRICANE SITUATION
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:23 AM |
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Back to Jeanne
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Will the High force Jeanne towards West Palm Beach as of this time?
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:26 AM |
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Re: Thanks for your support
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Excellent work LI phil! Let's leave it at that.
| gailwarning |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:28 AM |
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Re: Thanks for your support
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Might as well reintroduce myself - I posted a few times as gailmm but decided it was time to register. Thanks for being here!!
I have a question. Jeanne's hurricane force winds don't seem to extend out as far as Frances. Does that mean a particular location will experience hurricane force winds for a shorter period, and that the exact point of landfall makes more of a difference?
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:28 AM |
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Re: Miami Radar
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Someone posted previously that during Yom Kippur radios and TV's are allowed during emergencies, which this clearly is. So fear not, our Jewish friends and neighbors should be safe.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:30 AM |
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Re: Thanks for your support
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Tom Terry just used the new 8pm coordinates + the new model runs to scare the crow out of me. Looks like the GFDL and GFS have shifted westward now and it looks like Jeanne will be making a trek through the heart of central Florida.
On a different note: if the dogs behind my house don't stop barking, I am going to go to the nearest fireworks store and buy $100 worth of firecrackers to scare the crap out of them. The worst part is that they're not even "manly" barks...they're more like SHRIEKS from a horror film. ARGH!!!
| dwlobo |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:34 AM |
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Re: Thanks for your support
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Got mine in.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:36 AM |
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The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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I used this phrase in a PM and I liked it so much I'm putting it out as the ULTIMATE bonus point question...
NO CHEATING...no one on this site would ever do that anyway.
I'm going to throw out a phrase...I want to know who said it and it's historical significance...it doesn't have to be a year, but I want to know who "said" it and to whom it was "said"
"WHAT HATH GOD WROUGHT?"
Is that your final answer? Winner gets to vote one CFHC member off the island...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:38 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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Albert Einstein...creation of nuclear bomb.......am I right?
WRONG! Get off my boards...only kidding
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:39 AM |
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Re:Critters and Varmints
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Colleen, we discussed this after one of the other storms.
There could be a reason your dogs are barking. Remember that animals sense storms coming too, and seek shelter.
Don't want to alarm you or anyone, but watch out for gators, snakes and other animals to be out of their usual habitat for the next several days-AGAIN.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:39 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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My mother's reaction to the fact that we would have to cancel our trip to the panhandle this week? She's STILL mad about that...
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:41 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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May 23, 1844 Sam F.B Morse first telegraphic message.
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:41 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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I knew it was very familiar but I couldn't place it so I looked it up and promptly kicked myself...very good...very significant!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:41 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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Boooooooooo..........and I voted for you. I'm taking my toys and going home.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:42 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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Remembered it from last year in Earth Science did a bio on him.
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:43 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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Sure it wasn't the 24th?
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:43 AM |
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Re:Critters and Varmints
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Yeah, I realize that...except it sounds like one is beating the tar out of the other one, the owners are home and my yelling "SHUT UP" at the top of my VERY LOUD LUNGS is not getting their attention.
Believe me...I am dreading the arrival of frogs. I hate them.
| stormandan |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:43 AM |
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check this out
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http://radio24.nhcwx.com:8024/listen.pls
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:43 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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Quote:
May 23, 1844 Sam F.B Morse first telegraphic message.
We have a winner! You can now vote yourself off the Island...
To learn more, check this out...
| StormKrone |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:45 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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Quote:
Remembered it from last year in Earth Science did a bio on him.
Well, I went to school with him, and didn't remember it... (Believe that, I've got some swamp land for ya')
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SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:46 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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Numbers 23:23 If you're into the King James version.
I think this was a bit before Samual Morse' time ;-)
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:47 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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I was thinking he said "Come here Watson" ...---...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:48 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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"What hath God Wrought" - Samuel FB Morse telegraphed it from Baltimore to Washington in 1844 - but actually it was said by Moses in the Bible in Numbers 23:23 (King James)
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:48 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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Darn, I was sure it was my Mom.
I gotta go work off some nervous energy. I think I'll paint the house.
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:49 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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I thought it was "I need you Watson" and wasn't that the telephone?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:49 AM |
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Re: Thanks for your support
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" You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button. "
Thanks to all of you.... this isn't far from the truth for me !!! I always kind of "winged it" until CFHC....
------------------------------------------------------------
BOARDED UP IN ORLANDO , beter safe than sorry.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:51 AM |
Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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I am back....got evacuated and settled! I hope this site stays up! I can't log in for some reason. I am at 26.2N and 80.1N My prayers are with everyone out here. Anxiety is going to cut off my oxygen supply soon
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:51 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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Quote:
I thought it was "I need you Watson" and wasn't that the telephone?
Did NOT look this up so it will probably be wrong but I believe the phrase was "Watson. Come Here. I need you."
When I do look it up, I WILL be wrong, but that was the telephone...
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:51 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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Yeah that's right, I knew it had a religous aspect to it but didn't have a bible handy to check it out!
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:52 AM |
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Re: Thanks for your support
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I have a whole bunch of sayings that I made up today, I just can't remember them.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:52 AM |
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Re: Thoughts from Lakeland
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Colleen; It's been very educational reading your posts, and I sort of thought they had a "local" flavor. Now I know. I work at Edgewood and 98, for an Engineering Company. I drive from Brandon every day go up and down LH Blvd, more times than I can count. Keep up the good work, and for what it's worth, I agree that the curve up the coast just ins't going to happen. Not that I don't want it to, but I just don't think it will.
Cheers
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:53 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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I just ordered a valium drip.
j/k
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:53 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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Yes you are right about the quote (that I was wrong)..too tired to look it up. I figured I would get the gist across
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:53 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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OK, the phrase was "Come here Watson...I want you." knew I'd screw it up.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:53 AM |
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Re: Thanks for your support
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Current poll standings at 9:50pm EDT
Which hurricane site do you like the best?
46% National Hurricane Center (737 votes)
16% Central Florida Hurricane Center (264 votes)
11% Weather Underground (184 votes)
9% Intellicast (146 votes)
8% Weather Channel (136 votes)
6% AccuWeather (101 votes)
0% Hurricane City (8 votes)
0% Atlantic Tropical Weather Center (4 votes)
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:54 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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Alexander Bell invented the telephone and Morse invented Morse code two sperate things, I think your mixing it up.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 12:58 AM |
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is she strengthening?
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Looking at the IR loop for the last 6 hours, she looks to me like she's definitely grown in size and apparently convection. The eye looks large but defined now. (?)
Also, I never got to see the actual path of Frances. If anyone could post a link to that, it would appreciated.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:00 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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Quote:
Alexander Bell invented the telephone and Morse invented Morse code two sperate things, I think your mixing it up.
OK I just decided we have one more BONUS QUESTION.
This quote describes how I feel right about now...I want the movie...the NAME of the main character and the name of the actor who portrayed him/her.
IMDB.com has officially been banned from these boards...challenge yourselves...
OK Here goes..
"Be advised, I'm mean nasty and tired. I eat concertina wire and piss napalm and I could a round through a fleas ass at 300 yards. So why don't you hump somebody else's leg mutt-face before I push yours in."
Trust me, I don't confuse AT&T with Western Union...
| sthorne |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:00 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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Quote:
I just ordered a valium drip.
j/k
For you or the dogs?
| Redbird |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:00 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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Hook me up too Colleen
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:01 AM |
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Re: is she strengthening?
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Local 6 Hurricane Tracker
Many hurricane paths, very kool
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:02 AM |
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Re: Meanwhile back at the Ranch
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RECON is airborne, should have new center fix in around 2 hours.
BTW-Richard and others (Keith) were discussing the whys of how Jeanne was maintaing her strength. I looked back at the last 24 hours of center fixes, and the temperatures-both inside and outside the eye, as well as the dewpoint in the eye have remained the same. Less than 1 degree variation.
I did notice that NHC stated recon observed a 5*C difference in sea temperature from one side of the eye to the other. Major upwelling.
| Heather |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:02 AM |
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Re: is she strengthening?
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Got this from email weather update. It's official-here we go again...
Governor Bush declares state of emergency.
Voluntary evacuations have been ordered for coastal residents in Palm
Beach, Martin and St. Lucie Counties.
Updated strike info on Jeanne at...
http://www.emergencyemail.org/jeanne2004.asp
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:03 AM |
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Re: is she strengthening?
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http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/2004/atl_2004_sum.html
Here you go track of Frances
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:03 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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Sam Elliot
We Were Soldiers
The crusty old SGT MGR
Am I close???
Close from the MILITARY aspect of it, but at least YOU didn't cheat.
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SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:04 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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Quote:Quote:
Alexander Bell invented the telephone and Morse invented Morse code two sperate things, I think your mixing it up.
OK I just decided we have one more BONUS QUESTION.
This quote describes how I feel right about now...I want the movie...the NAME of the main character and the name of the actor who portrayed him/her.
IMDB.com has officially been banned from these boards...challenge yourselves...
OK Here goes..
"Be advised, I'm mean nasty and tired. I eat concertina wire and piss napalm and I could a round through a fleas ass at 300 yards. So why don't you hump somebody else's leg mutt-face before I push yours in."
Trust me, I don't confuse AT&T with Western Union...
That's easy. Heartbreak Ridge. I was in the Marine Corps and met Clint Eastwood during filming at our base!
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:04 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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Quote:
For you or the dogs?
Both. ROFLMBO........
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:05 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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That's right... The character was Gunny Highway...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:07 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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Since when are you the DEVILS ADVOCATE ?? I thought you were the one to keep stuff OT ???? You must be talking to JACK too much tonight !
Thanks for all you guys do... you have really help relax me, wife & 10 wk old... BUT...
--------------------------------------------
BOARDED UP IN ORLANDO
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:07 AM |
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Re: is she strengthening?
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Great site! Thanx for posting that!
| Liz L. |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:08 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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is this my bonus birthday gift? sigh its a bad one i want to return it
| FreakedInFlorida |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:08 AM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Thanks for your support
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I voted for CFHC and when all this clear up, may get a chance to donate to this very worthwhile system. I've learned so much and it was the number one site I missed when my DSL went down yesterday.
Well, being in Fort Pierce, we once again seem to get the proud distinction of being the target area for the storm. And while I thought we could stay at home this time, I'm thinking better of that idea. So we are going to pack up tomorrow and go to a shelter once again. I just hope the experience is shorter and with less problems than last time (no bathrooms, a carbon monoxide poison warning, crap leaking all over the floor, and our car window being smashed by pebbles on the roof).. Definitely not looking forward to it. Maybe 1-1/2 days won't be too bad, 4 was horrible. The only caveat was we were fairly unscathed and got power pretty quick back, which is definitely a blessing of course.
I had a rather newbie question of the experts and while I think I know, wanted to clarify. If the winds are 45 miles from the center, does that mean 45 from the eye's center or the 45 miles from the eyewall? Probably a stupid question, but that's how you learn, eh?
I want to thank you all so much for your advice, guidance, comments, links, humor, and of course, wonderful information and comradery. It helps in these stressful times, but I have to say that I hope that I can wait until next year after the storm to visit the site again.
But probably not. :-)Attached is a 3D cartoon I did today for some friends at another site I belong to (a 3D artists site). Seems appropriate right now, and hope you'll find it humorous as it's meant to be.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:09 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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Do I get 1/4 of a bonus point if I say CLINT EASTWOOD? I wanted to marry him when I was young. Like, yesterday.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:11 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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Whoops I thought it was Apocalypse Now
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:11 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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My birthday was yesterday. It wasn't pretty. I want a new one.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:12 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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Quote:Quote:Quote:
Alexander Bell invented the telephone and Morse invented Morse code two sperate things, I think your mixing it up.
OK I just decided we have one more BONUS QUESTION.
This quote describes how I feel right about now...I want the movie...the NAME of the main character and the name of the actor who portrayed him/her.
IMDB.com has officially been banned from these boards...challenge yourselves...
OK Here goes..
"Be advised, I'm mean nasty and tired. I eat concertina wire and piss napalm and I could a round through a fleas ass at 300 yards. So why don't you hump somebody else's leg mutt-face before I push yours in."
Trust me, I don't confuse AT&T with Western Union...
That's easy. Heartbreak Ridge. I was in the Marine Corps and met Clint Eastwood during filming at our base!
SKEET...YOU WUZ IN DA MARINES?
Semper Fi!
"Model A Ford And A Tank Full of Gas..." (heh)
Ah, the sea of heartbreak...can watch that one everytime.
Anyway...back to Jeanne for a minute...
anyone more qualified than Moi want to comment on this wv loop?
I don't see any "northward" movement, and while she's not strengthening, she's not weakening either...
And she's putting some mileage between her 5:00 position and her future 11:00 position.
might just be time to kick it back into "serious mode".
We got some serious s--- ahead and while Floridians may be sick of this drill...partay time has now officially ended.
"Closing time...last call for alcohol...so finish your whiskey or beer."
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:13 AM |
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Re: Thanks for your support
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That's a great picture..looks a bit like me which is pretty freaky. Your next assignment: Florida with all of our hurricanes surrounding it (just before impact) reflecting proportions..or not whatever...thanx for posting that!
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SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:13 AM |
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Re: Thanks for your support
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Quote:
If the winds are 45 miles from the center, does that mean 45 from the eye's center or the 45 miles from the eyewall? Probably a stupid question, but that's how you learn, eh?
They are referring to the center of the storm (eye). This means Hurricane force winds are 90 miles across.
No questions are stupid here...
| Liz L. |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:15 AM |
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Re: Thanks for your support
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wheeeeeeeeeeeeee i am gonna stand outside and see where the wind blows me saturday night j/k....
| PalmCoaster |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:15 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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Gunny Highway!!
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:16 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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The eye seems to be reforming quite well, the system is expanding and it moving very fast. Keep in touch Florida, as long as you can this is a very dangerous situation.
| LanceW-Home |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:17 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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As I see it now, "Somethin wicked this way comes."
| PalmCoaster |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:17 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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""Closing time...last call for alcohol...so finish your whiskey or beer." "
SEMISONIC
Next?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:18 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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"That's Right...Gunny Highway"
Don't forget to support CFHC in the poll:
http://jacksonville.com/
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:18 AM |
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Re: Thoughts from Lakeland
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Thanks....:-) and listen...please be careful. I wasn't as scared with Frances as I am with this one. I can't explain that feeling, it's just "there". I don't like my gut feelings because they are usually right.
| Liz L. |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:18 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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i am going to stay on as long as i have power. I can at least maybe tell you the conditions here in St Cloud. Its windy right now. but its also turning into night and i have to work the midnight shift at UPS so lets see how i fair though the night at the tin can i call work,
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:19 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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I'll comment on it. It looked to me like Jeanne snorked in a dry air band earlier and that opened up the eye for now. She's shedding outflow which I don't see as a good sign, maybe some strengthening tonight.
I'm quite tired of this. It looks like I'm going to get another Frances and one was enough this year.
What's with these things always hitting on the weekends?
| PalmCoaster |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:20 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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just did my part and voted.
What can I expect worst case scenario up here in Palm Coast this weekend?
stressed and looking for the ambien...
| LanceW-Home |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:20 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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I live in Poinciana, you know, very close to where Charley and Frances crossed... I will be on as well, atleast until DSL goes out.
(I gues I should not have yelled "Is that all you've got" after Charley.)
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:20 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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UPS has you working when a hurricane is baring down on you!
| FreakedInFlorida |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:20 AM |
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Re: Thanks for your support
|
Quote:
That's a great picture..looks a bit like me which is pretty freaky. Your next assignment: Florida with all of our hurricanes surrounding it (just before impact) reflecting proportions..or not whatever...thanx for posting that!
You're welcome and if all goes well and I have power and a computer and a house still, I might look into your idea.
| Liz L. |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:20 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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Its because i wanted to go to the beach this weekend. Everytime i want to go we get a hurricane sigh.........
| SoonerShawn |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:20 AM |
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Ivan's remnants
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Why does the NRL still have Ivan on their site?
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:21 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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FYI i'm not much for polls like that, I actually voted for the NHC over here. They have the real weight of the job over me.
| Liz L. |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:21 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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yes they do, they have a touch of compassion but not enough to shut down and give us the time and space we need to prepare
| Dawn |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:21 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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HAPPY BELATED BIRTHDAY!!!
| COgal |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:21 AM |
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Re: Miami Radar
|
Quote:
WE ARE REMINDED THAT FROM SUNDOWN TONIGHT UNTIL SUNDOWN SATURDAY IS
YOM KIPPUR...A SOLEMN JEWISH HOLIDAY. SOME OF YOUR JEWISH NEIGHBORS
IN THE WATCH AND WARNING AREAS OBSERVING YOM KIPPUR WILL NOT BE
LISTENING TO RADIOS OR WATCHING TV...AND MAY NOT BE AWARE OF THE
HURRICANE SITUATION
My poor mother who lives in Colorado appears to be more stressed out about Jeanne than I am. Talking to her on the phone a few minutes ago I was reading the above quote to her and in a panicked voice she tells me that she knows "lots" of Jewish people and she thinks one of her neighbors is Jewish...should she start calling them now...you know, to help me out???
Now remember, Mom lives in Colorado!
| erauwx |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:21 AM |
|
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Cantore
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Cantore is in Daytona Beach Shores .. if anyone was curious.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:22 AM |
|
Re: Thoughts from Lakeland - Bad Feelings
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Quote:
Thanks....:-) and listen...please be careful. I wasn't as scared with Frances as I am with this one. I can't explain that feeling, it's just "there". I don't like my gut feelings because they are usually right.
ME TOO.... Wife & baby just headed to Atlanta.
------------------------------------------------------------
BOARDED UP IN ORLANDO - better safe than sorry
| sthorne |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:22 AM |
|
|
Re: Thanks for your support
|
Quote:
Well, being in Fort Pierce, we once again seem to get the proud distinction of being the target area for the storm. And while I thought we could stay at home this time, I'm thinking better of that idea. So we are going to pack up tomorrow and go to a shelter once again. I just hope the experience is shorter and with less problems than last time (no bathrooms, a carbon monoxide poison warning, crap leaking all over the floor, and our car window being smashed by pebbles on the roof).. Definitely not looking forward to it. Maybe 1-1/2 days won't be too bad, 4 was horrible. The only caveat was we were fairly unscathed and got power pretty quick back, which is definitely a blessing of course.
I was watching the EOC meeting from this morning, and well...looks like SLC is in deep doo-doo, or will be again soon.
| Ormond Suzie |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:23 AM |
|
Jim Cantore sighting
|
Okay, I took a break from this board for a walk and dinner and watching a non-weather show. I haven't yet caught up on the posts I missed while in non-Jeanne reality; probably someone else has already reported sighting Jim Cantore. BUT, I just had to run to the computer and whine to all of you when I saw him reporting from Daytona Beach. AAARRRGGGHHH! I knew Jeanne is forcasted to head for us, but I didn't know we were in this much trouble. Sob, sob, whine. (I really do like him...it just made the track's danger more real to me.)
Now, back to the regularly scheduled discussion.
- Ormond Suzie
just north of Daytona Beach
| COgal |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:24 AM |
|
Re:Critters and Varmints
|
Quote:
Colleen, we discussed this after one of the other storms.
There could be a reason your dogs are barking. Remember that animals sense storms coming too, and seek shelter.
Don't want to alarm you or anyone, but watch out for gators, snakes and other animals to be out of their usual habitat for the next several days-AGAIN.
My dog has been barking all day and it's something he usually doesn't do and I live all the way in Eustis.
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:24 AM |
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|
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
|
They may have a "weightier" job, but this place has heart. All the info the NHC has and more, plus heart...I'm proud to have voted for CFHC
| PalmCoaster |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:25 AM |
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|
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Re:Critters and Varmints
|
My dog peed all over the carpet today, first time ever...
(gulp)
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:25 AM |
|
|
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
|
The NHC is going to say that this year was held back just like 2002. Unfortunantely there might be a relationship between Gobal Warming and landfalling hurricanes. More heat in the atmosphere because of increased Greenhouse gases so the Earth turns on the air coniditoner more, simply put.
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:25 AM |
|
|
Re: Meanwhile back at the Ranch
|
Quote:
I looked back at the last 24 hours of center fixes, and the temperatures-both inside and outside the eye, as well as the dewpoint in the eye have remained the same. Less than 1 degree variation.
Daniel...check out this last Vortex message:
650
URNT12 KNHC 242306
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/2306Z
B. 26 DEG 21 MIN N
74 DEG 04 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2775 M
D. 65 KT
E. 120 DEG 041 NM
F. 202 DEG 92 KT
G. 110 DEG 032 NM
H. 964 MB
I. 10 C/ 3055 M
J. 15 C/ 3086 M
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C45
N. 12345/7
O. .1/1 NM
P. AF861 1711A JEANNE OB 23
MAX FL WIND 94 KT NW QUAD 1922Z.
Contrary to what you posted, there is a 5 degree difference from the temperature inside vs outside the eye.
--Lou
| FreakedInFlorida |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:25 AM |
|
Re: Thoughts from Lakeland
|
Quote:
Thanks....:-) and listen...please be careful. I wasn't as scared with Frances as I am with this one. I can't explain that feeling, it's just "there". I don't like my gut feelings because they are usually right.
I have the same feeling. It came over me this morning. We had been watching the storm, and figured that we'd stay in the house, that it survived Frances, will survive this, but something is telling us to go. Not sure why, but I hope whatever it is doesn't come true.
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:27 AM |
|
Re: Jim Cantore sighting
|
I spoke to clients in Ormond Beach today. They've evacuated twice so far. They told me "<Censored> it, we're staying this time!"
I didn't mention that Jeanne going right over them was probably going to be a lot worse than Charley and Frances was.
| Dawn |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:30 AM |
|
Re: Thoughts from Lakeland
|
I agree! Hope we are wrong.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:30 AM |
|
Re: Thoughts from Lakeland - Bad Feelings
|
I have a bad feeling about this one, also. I live at the beach near Jacksonville and plan to leave in the morning unless things change drastically. Does anyone know if I-10 will be one-way tomorrow? When I evacuated for Hurricane Floyd it took me all day to go 100 miles, and a lot of people didn't leave. If people wait until the last minute, it could be a real nightmare.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:31 AM |
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|
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Re: Meanwhile back at the Ranch
|
No sir, I said over the last few fixes the temperature parameters had remained the same.
1757Z ..I,J,K---10,15,11
1933z..............10,14,12
2109Z..............10,14,11
2306Z..............10,15,11
I-temp outside the eye
J-temp inside the eye
k-dewpoint inside the eye
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:33 AM |
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|
The Poll
|
.WE'RE NUMBER 2!
http://cgi.jacksonville.com/cgi-bin/polling.cgi?action=view&poll=1693
Anyone who didn't vote, go here
| sthorne |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:33 AM |
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Re:Critters and Varmints
|
Our rabbit has chewed through the plastic grating on two gates and is generally freaking out. I don't want to crate or gate her in until tommorow when we open as the "family and freinds" shelter but I can't let her tear the house apart while she looks for a safe "den."
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:33 AM |
|
Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
|
Keith,
while the greenhouse effect does exist, I maintain that we are not far out of bounds global temp-wise, the real answer might be in sunspot activity. Many may remember that last year satellites were disrupted due to unusually large bombardments of solar rad. The solar flares and sunspots are running tremendously above normal, and since the sun is our heat source, if it puts out more, we receive more. Combine that with the multi-decadal shift in the hurricane patterns, which is normal and observed over other time periods, and the thermohaline circulation, and I think that offers a good explanation to the "why".
FWIW, I have been freezing my tail off up here the last few winters, and I don't like cold weather. Who knows what's up this winter.
Just one man's opinion.
| lilyv |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:35 AM |
|
Re: The Poll
|
I voted earlier this afternoon. Great to hear the site has moved up to #2!
| COgal |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:35 AM |
|
Re:Critters and Varmints
|
Mine ran in circles and potty'd all over the living room floor when Frances came through.
Poor guys!
| sthorne |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:36 AM |
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|
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Re: Thoughts from Lakeland
|
My gut feeling (and from watching some of the sat and models) is that she's going to strengthen up, make a run to near the lake, stall and then make her turn, scraping lots of land along the way. It does not feel pretty.
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:36 AM |
|
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Re: Meanwhile back at the Ranch
|
Sorry...my mistake in interpreting your post
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:37 AM |
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Re: Thoughts from Lakeland - Bad Feelings
|
If there is an alternate route, especially a US Highway, going the same direction/location/ destination as the Interstate, you may be better off on the US HWY. New Orleans evacuees did this for IVAN I, and made really good time, against the onslaught of Interstate evacuees. I'm not saying it will work for you in FL. But it sure made a difference in Louisiana.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:37 AM |
|
Re: Jim Cantore sighting
|
seems that many people in the Orlando area are taking the same attitude..."we've been through two...what's one more"...if the current track holds true we are getting ready to see much more weather than we saw from either Charlie or Frances...it's hard to believe we are preparing to go thru this mess for a third time this season...
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:39 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
|
Yes sunspot activity has occured, could someone give me a chart on when it was the greatest or something. Because say it was in July then it would take about 3 months to radiate back out of the Earth and therefore effect our climate and amount of hurricanes late season. Did a sunspot occur in late May? I know they run in 11 year cycles but sun spots aren't the only thing that effect growth of hurricanes Mr. Spock.
| COgal |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:40 AM |
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Re: The Poll
|
You got my vote!
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:41 AM |
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Re: The Poll
|
I voted for CFHC natch...
hope I didn't have any hanging chads though... I know how you Florida people are.... hehe
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:41 AM |
|
Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
|
Didn't say they were, but the activity has been running high for years. Unfortunately, I don't have access to solar charts, just remembering things I have read in the past.
And, I never said sunspots grow hurricanes. I was giving an explanation to what can change a climate that challenges the accepted belief.
| COgal |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:44 AM |
|
Re:Critters and Varmints
|
You have a rabbit roaming the house??
Watch out cause I heard there's some kind of rabbit voo doo hex out there!
| Liz L. |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:45 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
|
I do plan on riding this out in St cloud, my neighbors and i have a good network to keep us all safe. we all went bought supplies shared with each other and now we hope together that we are all safe. I understand they say this one is going to be worse than the other fore named storms but i feel certain with the hope and love of our familes and neighbors that all will make it though. Please i mean no harm by saying i will ride it out. But there are so many more needy here in st cloud that need the shelters than i do. We have many many trailor parks here with elderly in them and they are important to. I pray for all of florida to survive this horrbile plight that is upon us. and hope to god this is the last one for us this season. but as i fear all bets are off till nov 30th. SO battening down the hatches and slinging the letters from UPS . i will post more tommorrow of our contions here. take care all and thank you for all the insights you have given all of us.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:46 AM |
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Re: Jim Cantore sighting
|
Okay, it's official now. Stephanie Abrahms is in Palm Beach. She was the new point person during Ivan last week.
Jim Cantore, as Susie said, is in Daytona Beach Shores.
Can anybody tell me why it's " Pink " week at the weather channel?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:46 AM |
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Re:Critters and Varmints
|
MAKE HER TURN RABBIT !!!!!
| Staggy |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:46 AM |
|
|
Re: From the Marine Forecast
|
The following is from the 5PM marine forecast for Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach:
.SATURDAY...WINDS NORTHWEST TO NORTH 50 TO 55 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 75 KNOTS. NEAR SHORE...SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET BUILDING TO 14 TO 16 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. IN THE GULF STREAM...SEAS 14 TO 17 FEET BUILDING TO OVER 20 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. INTRACOASTAL WATERS EXTREMELY ROUGH. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS NORTHWEST 70 TO 75 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 100 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTHWEST TO WEST 45 TO 50 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FEET NEAR SHORE TO OVER 20 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. INTRACOASTAL WATERS EXTREMELY ROUGH IN EXPOSED AREAS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
No fishing this weekend.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:46 AM |
|
Re: Thoughts from Lakeland - Bad Feelings
|
We haven't been ordered to evacuate yet; they're going to make that decision at 10:00 a.m. tomorrow. But if things stay the same as they do now, I'm sure the order will be given. If the early morning report looks bad, I hope to leave well before 10:00 a.m. I remember Dora, and I don't want to take any chances. All of the debris from Frances still hasn't been picked up, and it could get scary.
| COgal |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:46 AM |
|
Re: The Poll
|
Quote:
I voted for CFHC natch...
hope I didn't have any hanging chads though... I know how you Florida people are.... hehe
You guys are not only informative but my oh my , you are clever and funny too! I want to be just like ONE of you guys when I grow up.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:48 AM |
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|
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
|
I know that, and I wasn't accusing you of anything Mr.Spock. Goodnight to all, and my thoughts/prayers will be to everyone in the path of this hurricane. I need some sleep
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:49 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
|
ok, cool.
Have a good one.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:49 AM |
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|
Hey, you single ladies ...
|
I just wanted to highlight the contributions of a CFHC poster...
I'm not gonna reveal who it is at the moment, but he more than fits the definition of "REAL AMERICAN HERO" I know it it tough to focus on other thing when you are about to face a potential CAT III....
but anyone want to guess who this is?
He is a tad to modest but we owe this AMERICAN more than a simple "thanks."
In 5 minutes I will reveal who it is...but you guys ususally beat me to the "cutoff dates."
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/viewmessage.php?Cat=0&message=11910&status=R&box=received
| clueless |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:50 AM |
how much work do I need to do
|
I live in an apartment that is just about 5 miles directly north of MCO. My windows are all south facing. During Charley the wind blew directly on them and we thought they were gonna break but they did not. For Frances we moved all of our comouter equipment and our tv, etc to the most central part of the apartment and tarped it up. As it turns out the winds here were rather insignificant. We were able to sit on the porch for much of the storm and just watch it all unfold. I know this will be stronger, so I dont plan on beng able to sit outside, but I am wondering if the winds will be blowing directly at us or coming from the side as it stands right now.
It was a lot of work to move all of the stuff, and I will do it again if I have to, but...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:51 AM |
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Re: Hey, you single ladies ...
|
JC who else ??
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:51 AM |
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Re: The Poll
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I have been cheating on CFHC and perusing other sites.. Seems some people think this is going to make landfall in Broward/Dade County. Some think Palm Beach County.. My understanding is that storm is directly east of Boca Raton, which is on the border of Broward/Palm Beach County. I would not expect the storm to go south, but I guess you never know.
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:51 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
|
Interesting reading, sunspot talk is towards the bottom...JB mentioned
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:51 AM |
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Florida Attitude
|
I have witnessed in person today what several have posted about regarding storm apathy here in Central Florida. The tension reached an unbearable peak during the days leading up to Frances' landfall. The shock of Charley being far worse than we imagined could happen this far inland jolted nearly everyone into some sort of storm preparation for Frances.
This time around, the attitude is more a resigned acceptance. I have actually noticed yesterday and earlier today, that several homes in my neighborhood were taking their plywood DOWN!
I work in a local department store and, in the days immediately prior to Charley and Frances, business was non-existent. People were too pre-occupied to shop. Sure, the grocery and home improvement stores were packed, but clothing stores did no business. Today, we were very busy with people casually browsing....a totally different attitude from before.
Even tonight at the grocery store saw very little lines.....huge stocks of water, canned goods & batteries....no rush to grab these typical hurricane supplies. I certainly hope that Jeanne turns out to be a fizzle, because I fear the lack of preparation could come back and haunt many people.
One other way to look at this situation: maybe everyone still HAS tons of supplies and feel they have remained in a storm prep mode with little additional action necessary.
--Lou
| Liz L. |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:53 AM |
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Re: Florida Attitude
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I hope so too for all thier sakes. I went to walmart today and it was a madhouse here. gas lines out the ying yang etc bad bad scene. I am glad i went a few days ago.
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:53 AM |
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Wheee
|
Back, vehicle is secured.
Going to go relax for a bit (sorry I missed the questions - but better off that way since I knew them
). I'll be back later to give blow-by-blow accounts of how Melbourne is shaping up
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:54 AM |
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Re: Hey, you single ladies ...
|
Broken link me thinks...
| FireAng85 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:55 AM |
|
Re:Critters and Varmints
|
Isn't that weird? For the past 2 days, my Great Dane puppy has been pacing and barking. He is not acting like himself. He didn't act like this with Charley or Frances. I'm getting really worried. We are in Sorrento and it looks like Sunday is going to a rough ride. Orange Co hasn't called us back in early so I don't know if I'm even going to be able to make it in to work Sunday. What do ya'll think? I will be on the road from about 6:15 to 7:15 am. Going from Sorrento to the east side of Orlando. South Alafaya Tr to be exact.
| sthorne |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:55 AM |
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Re:Critters and Varmints
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Quote:
You have a rabbit roaming the house??
Watch out cause I heard there's some kind of rabbit voo doo hex out there!
We've made the main part of the house Rabbit Secure, gated off the rest, and Bindi is good about using her litter box.
Yeah, it's about time for that Rabbit voo-doo.
Sandy
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:55 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
|
Thanks a lot, I don't think people should take the long range forecasts seriously. If you just track the hurricane for the days in advance and get prepared there is no reason for long range forecasts; but they are fun in my opinion and show off your knowledge of the tropics and climate in general.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:55 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
|
nice digging.
| Fletch |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:56 AM |
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Re: The Poll
|
I know I have posted this before, but it is something I feel strongly about. If you live in a mobile home in a Warning Area and have kids, please evacuate as told. If you don't have kids and want to be stupid on your own, fine. I don't want to read about children getting killed in a mobile home during a hurricane.
| Bioman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:56 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
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well i feel famous. Jim from Hurricane city just read my email on air....go me
| RedingtonBeachGuy |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:56 AM |
|
Re: Florida Attitude
|
same here on the beach near Tampa.. nobody is doing anything.. "ah, it's just a 100 mph storm" is what they are saying like they are pros now. Folks that generally leave aren't even boarding up this time. No sand bags, no rush for supplies here, not even gas. Nothing. It is as if they are all shell shocked or disbelieving. I hope they are right.
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:56 AM |
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Re:Critters and Varmints
|
I wouldn't be driving at that time...please be careful
| deusadomar |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:56 AM |
Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine
|
Try to call the Hospital and tell them your dad is ill and can't be without his medical equipment, you have no generator, and no means to transport him anywhere. They may send the ambulance to pick him up and take him to the special needs shelter. Call the shelter ahead of time and explain he is 350 lbs and they'll arrange something. you'll have better chances than finding a generator.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:57 AM |
|
Re: Florida Attitude
|
I felt the same way as you until this evening.... Apopka area is overrun with last minute stuf... gas lines... groceries... etc. I think some of us prepped for the past nightmares & the rest are just now preparing because they got lucky the last two near misses.
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 01:58 AM |
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Re: Florida Attitude
|
People here are resigned but restocking as well. Lines at gas stations and Publix was packed. No one is freaking out but just going through the motions.
Inland as we are, Frances rocked our world. Jeanne could be the equal or worse.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:00 AM |
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Re: Florida Attitude
|
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/viewmessage.php?Cat=0&message=11910&status=R&box=received
Skeet not only is the bomb with the graphix, he WAS gunny highway (or maybe profile if you know the movie)
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:02 AM |
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Re: Florida Attitude
|
I may be wrong but I think your link is to your PMailbox and we can't view it..or maybe it's just me...
| FireAng85 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:02 AM |
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Re: Florida Attitude
|
yeah, I got the same thing
| troy2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:02 AM |
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Re: Jim Cantore sighting
|
Quote:
Can anybody tell me why it's " Pink " week at the weather channel?
maybe breast cancer awareness...
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:04 AM |
|
|
Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
|
FYI, the solar max for this 11 year cycled occured in 2000. The sunspot activity has been on the decline since then. There are activity bursts from time to time, though.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:04 AM |
| Attachment |
|
|
|
Re: Florida Attitude
|
Try it this way (click attachment)
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:05 AM |
|
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Re: Florida Attitude
|
To vote for your favorite Hurricane info site click here
Current poll results:
NHC: 45%
CFHC: 18%
WxUnderground: 11%
etc...
|
SkeetoBite
|
| (Master of Maps) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:06 AM |
|
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Re: Florida Attitude
|
| FreakedInFlorida |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:06 AM |
|
Re: Thoughts from Lakeland
|
Quote:
My gut feeling (and from watching some of the sat and models) is that she's going to strengthen up, make a run to near the lake, stall and then make her turn, scraping lots of land along the way. It does not feel pretty.
I think wherever it goes, it will make a mess. I do find it interesting the latest models at
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_11.gif
show a WNW turn at 75W. Taking it much further north than the Treasure Coast at landfall. At this point, would take that scenario or the aforementioned WPB entry to the gulf, over a direct hit to Ft. Pierce. With all due respect and concern for my fellow coastliners. Good luck to all. I won't be able to communicate from the shelter (which opens at 8am and plan to be there at 7:30am), so I hope all goes well for you if I don't get to talk to after tonight. Have to pack the computer in storage once again, so probably won't be on much longer.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:06 AM |
|
Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
|
Quote:
Yes sunspot activity has occured, could someone give me a chart on when it was the greatest or something. Because say it was in July then it would take about 3 months to radiate back out of the Earth and therefore effect our climate and amount of hurricanes late season. Did a sunspot occur in late May? I know they run in 11 year cycles but sun spots aren't the only thing that effect growth of hurricanes Mr. Spock.
Actually we are heading towards a sunspot low. As was said, current solar activity is periodic - 11 year cycles. The last peak was in 2000, sunspot minimum is expected to occur in 2007-2008. There are lots of sites out there that will give you plenty of information on solar activity and its effects - the greatest inpact sunspot activity has here on earth is the ionization of the atmosphere, that directly relates to the atmosphere's ability to reflect radio waves (predominantly in the HF spectrum...) Here is a good site for realtime solar data:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation/propagation.html
During peaks of solar activity there can be dozens of spots on the solar surface. Right now there are very few...
Good luck to all this weekend
(Riding it out in East Orlando....)
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:06 AM |
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Re: Florida Attitude
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Works great! Those uniforms look great.
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:07 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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I have a question for you. If the nogaps scenario plays out will we get similar effects of Francis? Im just south of Tampa in manatee county. Thanks
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:08 AM |
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Re: Florida Attitude
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What, is it picture posting time on the forum?
Doesn't skeet look all cute in that pretty uniform
| h2ocean |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:09 AM |
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Re: Wheee
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I too will post updates until the power goes as I did during Frances. I just finished putting up the hurricane shutters (only took a few down from the last storm). We are staying - we are on Merritt Island but our elevation is 18 feet rated at at Cat 5 for surge. We are mid way between 520 and Pineda causeways. We have shutters rated for Cat 5. I would leave if I thought it would be Cat 4, so I will watch tomorrow. Also, for Brevard locals leaving and you want an update...there is a good web site from Florida Today where locals post by city and even sub-division...here is the link http://community.flatoday.com/cgi-bin/yabb/YaBB.pl
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:10 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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that is all true, my question is, what kind of lag time is there between maxes and mins of activity, with respect to our weather patterns? I don't know the answer to that. I do remember this last cycle was supposed to be abnormally strong.
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:11 AM |
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Re: Thoughts from Lakeland
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Quote:
...show a WNW turn at 75W. Taking it much further north than the Treasure Coast at landfall. At this point, would take that scenario or the aforementioned WPB entry to the gulf, over a direct hit to Ft. Pierce. With all due respect and concern for my fellow coastliners.
As a resident on the Space Coast, I have to assure you that we don't want it either.
| dwlobo |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:12 AM |
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Re: Florida Attitude
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It's the same down here in Palmetto. It could be because there is no perceived certainty about the path and the proximity to this (Tampa Bay) area. Maybe they're too focused on the track and not the whole forecast path.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:12 AM |
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Coming up on 11 adv
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Looks like the 18Z GFS shifted west. The 18Z Sun position [2:00 PM] appears to be smack dab over Orlando in that run. Would not be surprised to see another leftward nudge when the new advisory comes out in the next 30-45 min.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:15 AM |
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Re: Coming up on 11 adv
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I would be surprised if they didn't shift the track west a bit. Of course, they won't have 0z guidance at that point. That is also 2 runs in a row the GFS has shifted west. This seems similar to the biases it had with Ivan.
| clueless |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:16 AM |
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Re: Coming up on 11 adv
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That would answer my question fairly specifically - I know that I have done all that I can to make my family safe - we have a well stocked interior bathroom that can sleep 2.5 people (who sleeps during a storm anyway) and all of the supplies that I need for the storm and the aftermath. Just dont want to go crazy and over prepare and then sit around wishing that I hadn't made so much work for myself. I guess I would rather have that than lose any possibility of protecting equipment if possible
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:16 AM |
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Re: The ONLY Bonus point question tonight
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Actially this last cycle was just average. The most active solar cycle was cycle 11, that peaked during 1957-58.
Generally, the effects of solar disturbances are felt on earth at roughly 93 hours after they occur on the surface of the sun. Here is a good NASA site on the solar wind...
http://science.nasa.gov/ssl/pad/solar/sun_wind.htm
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:17 AM |
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Re: Florida Attitude
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Stephanie-TWC, in Palm Beach, just said there is a mandatory evacuation, starting at 7AM-Saturday for Palm Beach County.
This is for Low lying areas and mobile homes. I'll try to find a link.
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
830 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PALM BEACH EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS HAVE REQUESTED MANDATORY EVACUATIONS IN ZONE A AND B THIS EVENING. SHELTERS ARE EXPECTED TO OPEN SATURDAY MORNING.
BROWARD COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS HAVE ASKED FOR A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF ZONE A AND MOBILE HOMES THIS EVENING.
THREE SHELTERS ARE DUE TO OPEN THIS EVENING. A MANDATORY EVACUATION IS ANTICIPATED FOR THESE AREAS SATURDAY MORNING AND OTHER SHELTERS WILL OPEN.
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ANTICIPATE ORDERING AN EVACUATION FOR ZONE A AT 7 AM EDT SATURDAY MORNING AT WHICH TIME SHELTERS WILL BE OPENING.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS82-KMFL.shtml
MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE JEANNE AND AT THIS TIME NO PROTECTIVE ACTIONS ARE BEING RECOMMENDED. INDIVIDUALS SHOULD REVIEW AND UPDATE THEIR HURRICANE FAMILY PLANS
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:19 AM |
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Re: Coming up on 11 adv
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Crud. Every model I run has it basically going over me.
Somebody owes me big for this..
| Terri |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:22 AM |
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Re: Florida Attitude
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Quote:
I have witnessed in person today what several have posted about regarding storm apathy here in Central Florida. The tension reached an unbearable peak during the days leading up to Frances' landfall. The shock of Charley being far worse than we imagined could happen this far inland jolted nearly everyone into some sort of storm preparation for Frances.
This time around, the attitude is more a resigned acceptance. I have actually noticed yesterday and earlier today, that several homes in my neighborhood were taking their plywood DOWN!
I work in a local department store and, in the days immediately prior to Charley and Frances, business was non-existent. People were too pre-occupied to shop. Sure, the grocery and home improvement stores were packed, but clothing stores did no business. Today, we were very busy with people casually browsing....a totally different attitude from before.
Even tonight at the grocery store saw very little lines.....huge stocks of water, canned goods & batteries....no rush to grab these typical hurricane supplies. I certainly hope that Jeanne turns out to be a fizzle, because I fear the lack of preparation could come back and haunt many people.
I can relate to the apathy, Lou. Even though we folks on the GA coast won't come close (God willing) to experiencing the initial landfall of Jeanne and what she will bring, we're in for some nasty weather. I'm pretty much prepared all year round for whatever comes my way because I live on a small island that is east of a small town. Savannah is a little north of me. I went shopping last night to pick up a few more things, and the grocery store was empty. I went to Lowes today (in Savannah) for a little extra plywood (just in case) and that store was empty, too. I just couldn't believe it!!! Heck, parts of Savannah were without power for 2 weeks when Hurricane David dropped by for a little visit in 1979. As you know, it was a category 1, and if I remember correctly, it passed over Tybee Island and missed the city of Savannah. I talked to some neighbors today that weren't even aware that Jeanne was headed our way. Like I said, I can relate to the apathy. Folks around here could be in for a big surprise.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:26 AM |
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Re: Florida Attitude
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I will say, there really should not be much of a rush to stock up. There have been so many storms that everyone should have a ready to go hurricane kit.
Addition: I had no preps that I needed to do for Jeanne because they were already done for Frances and Ivan.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:27 AM |
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Re: Coming up on 11 adv
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clueless,
whole lot better to over prepare than under prepare. you are inland so tornado's could be a problem too. they are what wiped our butts when ivan came in. good to hear you have a game plan
andy1tom
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:29 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Local Statements
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HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
526 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
WHILE THE DURATION OF THE WORST WEATHER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORTER THAN WHAT OCCURRED WITH HURRICANE FRANCES...THE SEVERITY OF WEATHER CONDITIONS AROUND THE AREA OF LANDFALL MAY ACTUALLY BE WORSE...AS JEANNE MAY BECOME A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.
ALTHOUGH THIS HAS BEEN AN EXHAUSTING HURRICANE SEASON WITH MANY AREAS HAVING ALREADY EXPERIENCED CONSIDERABLE PROPERTY DAMAGE...
RESIDENTS WILL NEED TO AVOID COMPLACENCY! NOW IS THE TIME TO TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY! PLEASE DO NOT HESITATE...AS HURRICANE JEANNE POSES A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO OUR COMMUNITIES.
REMAIN CALM...STAY INFORMED OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AND WEATHER THREATS...AND START IMPLEMENTING YOUR HURRICANE PLAN OF ACTION.
CONSIDER YOUR VULNERABILITY TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...TO DEADLY STORM SURGE...TO FLOODING RAIN. TAKE ALL REASONABLE AND NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:34 AM |
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Re: Coming up on 11 adv
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Hmmm. I am in nothwest Orlando (Wekiva), and I definitely notice a mailaise over the whole area. I hope it doesn't suprise everyone. I am boarded up and ready (not) to take it.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:34 AM |
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Saving tonight for tommorow...
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Gonna pack it in tonight, so I can do this (at least I willl try) tom. nite.
Any BoSucx fans better leave these boards now!
Must be the season of the witch
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:36 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Local Statements
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
728 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004
...THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE...
THE PREVIOUS MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE PLAN B AREAS DUE TO RECENT INCREASE IN THE FORECASTED INTENSITY OF HURRICANE JEANNE. ALL RESIDENTS LIVING IN THE HURRICANE EVACUATION ZONE A AND B OR MOBILE HOMES SHOULD EVACUATE
| Terri |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:37 AM |
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Re: Florida Attitude
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Quote:
I will say, there really should not be much of a rush to stock up. There have been so many storms that everyone should have a ready to go hurricane kit.
Addition: I had no preps that I needed to do for Jeanne because they were already done for Frances and Ivan.
You're right, Jim. But, the truth is that I don't personally know one family that is ready and stocked up, besides mine. Georgia has been so lucky over the years that complacency has set in. All I hear is, "Don't worry. It will miss us. They always do." GA may get a wake up call on Monday.
| COgal |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:38 AM |
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Re:Critters and Varmints
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Hey Angie please be careful out there. After Charley I was at a few of the stations and helped hand out water and supplies and I'm sure I'll be back! I don't know much about hurricanes and half the time I don't understand half of what everyone here is saying. I learn a little more everyday. I'm better at helping out physically after they hit, getting right in there and cleaning debri and delivering water and supplies. I even went with a team from FEMA door to door on the east coast after Frances and knocked on doors making sure people were safe. My feet hurt and my back ached but I didn't care. I admire the firefighters out there (and everyone else) who have really made a difference before, during and after these disasters. You guys rock!
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:39 AM |
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Re: Coming up on 11 adv
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Quote:
Hmmm. I am in nothwest Orlando (Wekiva), and I definitely notice a mailaise over the whole area. I hope it doesn't suprise everyone. I am boarded up and ready (not) to take it.
Mainly because Orlando has traditionally been spared any major hits. This season has been a freak along those lines.
| nandav |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:39 AM |
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Re: Florida Attitude
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And I always heard that Charlotte Harbor was very protected and we didn't have a high probability of a hurricane hitting us.. and you know what happened at the last minute!! I still have no idea when we will be able to move back into our home and life will be back to normal again.
| AngB |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:41 AM |
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Re: Wheee
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Long time lurker. I love this site. There is just a wealth of information.
We live on S. Merritt Island, too and are considering not evacuating for the first time. We will wait and see what Jeanne is doing in the morning and then decide. We did board up for the first time ever, though (previous owner installed security window film). Plylox made installation easy...we'll see if they work. Plan on installing permanent shutters as soon as I can get someone to return my phone calls.
Our house made it through Frances with no damage...just a few stripped hibiscus and a leaning palm tree.
Several gas stations out of gas here and Home Depot was doing a brisk business, but I don't think it was nearly as crowded like the last couple of times.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:42 AM |
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Re: Coming up on 11 adv
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Just south of you in Piedmont lakes.... half an hour ago, 436 was a madhouse for gas & last minute stuff. I just went out to get a bike ride & a breath of fresh air. ( I HATE THESE BOARDS & DARKNESS !!! )
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:44 AM |
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Re: Wheee
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Quote:
Plan on installing permanent shutters as soon as I can get someone to return my phone calls.
Just an FYI - in Brevard county, the average quote for permanent shutters is $20K. Could be worse, but seeing how it's only about $1K in materials...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:46 AM |
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Re: Wheee
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chack out hurricanedepot.com .... easy to install ... good online estimator & good advice for self installation
| h2ocean |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:47 AM |
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Re: Wheee
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Hey AngB...give Affordable Glass Protection a call. That is who installed our hurricane shutters a year and a half ago. They did a great job! Good luck riding it out...where are you located? We are in River Grove.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:47 AM |
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Re: Florida Attitude
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OK...like me...hate me...whatever...
Send your compliments to Mike/John.
Gotta do that zzzzz thang....
I'll be back tomorrow unless of course you vote me off the island...
Lets all praay this is our last one for the year....
Climo says no! but who wants to start the season 0-6?
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:49 AM |
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Re: Florida Attitude
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AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE SUWANEE RIVER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST TO THE SUWANEE RIVER...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTH OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE
Does this sound familiar??
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:49 AM |
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11 PM Discussion is out.. Track nudged a little west..
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http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/at200411.disc.html
| alan |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:52 AM |
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Re: Coming up on 11 adv
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Votaw and Piedmont-Wekiva here.
There is a definate calm over the community today and tonight. I just think people are so beat up already that they just don't know what to do. I really blame ivan and Frances more than anything.
With Charley, it was shock.
With Frances, it was mindnumbing, but the Orlando area faired much better than with Charley. There was so much buildup and then a lesser hit than the first one. Most people did not see the damage along the coast. In Orlando, it was not that powerful.
Then Ivan came and the community over reacted. Much of the community cancelled events, meetings and almost everything, on Friday when Ivan was still several days away. My calendar, which usually has at least four meetings a day was wiped clean before anyone knew for sure what was happening with the storm. Then it missed us. This time, I think its back to it will miss us.
It's really not a good thing. If this one hits Orlando, it will be the worst one.
| AngB |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:52 AM |
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Re: Wheee
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Thanks for the info.
Drive by your subdivision every day....We are just (approx. half mile?, maybe) south of you in Sunset Ridge Estates.
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:53 AM |
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Re: Wheee
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New thread started
| nandav |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:55 AM |
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Re: Florida Attitude
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I think.. no matter how much you prepare.. nothing really prepares you for the reality of what happens. (But the main regret I have is that I didn't do the laundry before Charley hit...)
| Terri |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 02:58 AM |
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Re: Florida Attitude
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Quote:
And I always heard that Charlotte Harbor was very protected and we didn't have a high probability of a hurricane hitting us.. and you know what happened at the last minute!! I still have no idea when we will be able to move back into our home and life will be back to normal again.
I'm so sorry.
Hopefully, you'll be back to normal soon. Actually, I'm probably over prepared for a hurricane, if that's possible, but I have a good reason for being so. A representative from my EMC told me that if my island ever got hit, I'd be without power for a month. I believed him and have planned accordingly.
| h2ocean |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 03:00 AM |
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Re: Wheee
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oh yeah, I go running by there....you can see the back of our house as you are driving up S. Tropical - we are at the southernmost part of the subdivision. That one poster said 20k, we have over 20 windows and it was around 6k and we did the more expensive armour screen for the entire patio.
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 03:01 AM |
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Re: The Poll
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Quote:....then I won't tell you that if you go to the directory where the cookies are stored and look for 'jacksonville', erase them and return to the site you can vote again....no, I'll not telll you how to cheat, NoSiree, I won't do that
I voted earlier this afternoon. Great to hear the site has moved up to #2!
| DebbiePSL |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 03:01 AM |
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Re: Wheee
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we have the permanent shutters and they are worth the cost. so easy to prepare for storms
| Bioman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 03:13 AM |
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Re: Wheee
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I continue to look down the barrel of a gun with these hurricanes. IM so worried about the st. Johns river flooding even more
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 03:31 AM |
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Re: Saving tonight for tommorow...
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Quote:Good night Phil...We'll keep the hurricane off your back for a few hours...tommorrow, I have to shut down and move this last computer and some clothes to my refuge and leave the trailer to its fate. This will be the 4th time this season. Take care, see you tomorrow till afternoon then, well, we'll see how it goes and check in if possible later.
Gonna pack it in tonight, so I can do this (at least I willl try) tom. nite.
Any BoSucx fans better leave these boards now!
Must be the season of the witch