MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Jun 11 2005 01:45 PM |
Thankfully Arlene Remains Tropical Storm
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Arlene wasn't organized enough last night to get to Hurricane Strength, but it remains a strong Stropical Storm this morning. It's appearance on satellite still has most of the energy to the north and east, but the ragged eye has been visible on radar.
It has jjogged a little westward this morning making Alabama the most likely point of landfall, giving points east the worst iof it. It has one more chance to burst and make it to hurricane strength, but it isn't likely. And I hope it does not.
This possibility is why the Hurricane Warnings remain up. After landfall it will move inland quickly up through Alabama aroundand turn right around Kentucky, making a rain event for those areas with some rain. Since it's a fast mover the flooding chance is reduced, but it is still there because of possible downpours.
See jason Kelley's Lastest Blog for more discussion.
Outside of Arlene there is another area in the Northeastern Caribbean, but I don't expect much out of it currently. It is still June, after all. However, as it drifts westward it might reach an area where conditionks could be favorable for it. So it's something to watch.
Event Related Links
Key west long range radar loop
Tampa Long Range Radar loop
Color Sat of Arlene
Animated model plots for Arlene - Static model plot
Electronic Map Wall (PSU)
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sat Jun 11 2005 02:13 PM |
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Re: Thankfully Arlene Remains Tropical Storm
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I don't see it making Cat I even though it is coming around on the west side. It may just be me but it sure seems to have a north mvt. the past few hours, and very slow.
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jun 11 2005 02:20 PM |
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Re: Thankfully Arlene Remains Tropical Storm
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Quote:
I don't see it making Cat I even though it is coming around on the west side. It may just be me but it sure seems to have a north mvt. the past few hours, and very slow.
Dr Lyons on TWC just said the exact same thing . Shes a fighter But the evil shear monster is going to win this fight.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jun 11 2005 02:23 PM |
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Re: Thankfully Arlene Remains Tropical Storm
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watching wwl TV weather they showed a water vapor loop that showed why Arlene had very little convection on its east side... she's pulling in a plethora of dry air.... looked almost due north to me during the past couple of hours but now might be going NNW again, maybe... the dry air scenario, it if plays out would be great for the panhandle.... no way this thing can get cane status now... funny, we finally have a nice center to track after a system with that had all kinds of mutliple centers, and poorly defined centers and the dry air is now one of the main the inhibiting factors... hey, its June... good dry run for all
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jun 11 2005 02:45 PM |
Re: Thankfully Arlene Remains Tropical Storm
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#32 Published Saturday June 11, 2005 at 10:30 am EDT
Last evenings WNW cyclone center wobble/reformation/relocation became a sustained new heading of NW for T.S. Arlene. At 8:00 am EDT she is moving NW-NNW at 16 mph with sustained winds of 70 mph. Wind shear and dry air entrainment halted further strengthening during the overnight hours.
However looking at the latest visible satellite imagery we are now seeing an eye feature with one last burst of convection on the NW side. This means that minimal category 1 hurricane status may still be reached right before landfall somewhere just east of Mobile Bay near Gulf Shores, AL. this afternoon. Might as well flip a coin!
Tornadoes and waterspouts have continued to occur across the Florida Peninsula region with Arlene's spiral feeder bands but I think the overall threat of tornadoes has lessened across the Gulf Coast for now.
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf@arrl.net
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249
Plant City, FL NWS CWOP Weather Station #AR692 Live Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index1.html
Plant City, FL NWS CWOP Weather Station #AR692 3 Minute Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.html
Plant City, FL Daily Climatological Weather Data Archive Blog: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm
Florida Daily Weather Discussion Blog: http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm
Florida Raw Weather Forecasting Product Links: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf13.htm
Global Warming Refuted: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf42.htm
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CFHC
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| Sat Jun 11 2005 03:04 PM |
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Re: Thankfully Arlene Remains Tropical Storm
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Moved offtopic Q&A to Weather Q&A forum. Arelene remains a tropical storm at 11, and I'm thinking it will stay one now.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jun 11 2005 03:06 PM |
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Re: Global Warming Is A Fallacy
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Looks like I'll loose the contest, with recent satellite imagery, infrared, and water vapor. Almost seems to be forming some type of depression in the CDO, but infrared indicates convection is still presistent. Water vapor imagery indicates a large area of dry air wrapping around the system, which might increase the threat of tornado's, but surely limit the tropical characteristics. Radar, at least base reflectivity indicates at large swath of 1-2 " of rain have fell. This should become quite a prolific rain producer once on land in the deep south. This is mainly because convection can start much easier on land then water this time of year.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sat Jun 11 2005 03:31 PM |
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Re: Thankfully Arlene Remains Tropical Storm
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Again maybe just me but by radar Arlene's center seems to be wobbling a little now. This may be her last shot....
| mbfly |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jun 11 2005 03:33 PM |
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Re: Thankfully Arlene Remains Tropical Storm
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wobbling east or wobbling west ??
| Southern4sure |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jun 11 2005 03:37 PM |
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Conditions in Mobile
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I have family in Mobile/Grand Bay, AL. The conditions are worsening, Rain and gusts are making low lying evacuations hard. My family had to evacuate. I pray Arlene passes quickly with little or no tornadoes.
Teresa
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sat Jun 11 2005 03:43 PM |
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Re: Thankfully Arlene Remains Tropical Storm
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To my eyes a slight wobble to the east. I think the landfall may end up closer to Pensacola than Mobile.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jun 11 2005 03:45 PM |
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Re: Conditions in Mobile
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Well as of now, they just might get lucky. The few feeder bands that are present do not have significant rotation for damaging tornado's.
| mbfly |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jun 11 2005 03:47 PM |
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Re: Conditions in Mobile
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Not too bad here yet........... steady light to moderate rain with a few gusts, but not as bad as I expected it to be by now. I just talked to a friend down in Grand Bay, they're fine so far.
| LadyStorm |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jun 11 2005 03:48 PM |
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Re: Thankfully Arlene Remains Tropical Storm
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Quote:
To my eyes a slight wobble to the east. I think the landfall may end up closer to Pensacola than Mobile.
You know Florida is a hurricane magnet....:(
| Southern4sure |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jun 11 2005 03:54 PM |
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Re: Conditions in Mobile
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I hevent talked in great detail with my folks but they said it was not weather to be out and about in. They were on the road getting to higher ground and the rain was coming down hard and light signals swinging.
Teresa
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jun 11 2005 03:59 PM |
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Re: Conditions in Mobile
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It's not realy that bad in Grandbay AL I just got back from driving around and this looks like a normal heavy summer time shower . 1.95 inches has fallen in Grand bay since last night. Tides are a little above normal and winds are gusting around 20 mph
| Southern4sure |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jun 11 2005 04:06 PM |
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Re: Conditions in Mobile
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Like I said, I dont know exactly where they were I only know what Im told.
My biggest fear is not Arlene in general but the possible tornadoes.
Teresa
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jun 11 2005 04:15 PM |
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Re: Conditions in Mobile
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I talked with a G.M. at a large hotel in Pensacola, she said they had some heavy rains and some good winds just awhile ago......Weatherchef
| mbfly |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jun 11 2005 04:19 PM |
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Re: Conditions in Mobile
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Actually, I'm quite amazed at how mild the weather is here. I've seen much worse coming in ahead of weaker tropical storms........... I suppose the worst is yet to come though. At the moment in West Mobile near the airport, it's not raining a drop. We haven't even had not the first rumble of thunder ! It appears to me on the sat that she is still going due north, with maybe even a tiny jog east so I think still we're ok over here on the west side of Mobile Bay. I hope
| Southern4sure |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jun 11 2005 04:25 PM |
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Re: Conditions in Mobile
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I just got off the phone with my inlaws in the Semmes area and they said the same thing. I wonder where all the rain was my parents were in?
Teresa
| mbfly |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jun 11 2005 04:36 PM |
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Re: Conditions in Mobile
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Looks like a rainband coming through in the south part of Mobile county where they are. Here's a neat radar site if you want to keep an eye on them.
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLocal...mp;prodnav=none
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sat Jun 11 2005 04:38 PM |
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Re: Test Post
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Test
| Southern4sure |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jun 11 2005 04:41 PM |
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Re: Conditions in Mobile
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Thanks....thats pretty neat.
Teresa
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jun 11 2005 04:48 PM |
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Re: Conditions in Mobile
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i noticed the pressure has been dropping a bit over the last few hours
we also have a ragged but definate eye on radar
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jun 11 2005 05:07 PM |
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Re: Conditions in Mobile
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Hurricanecity is streaming a live video show right now and have live video from Mark Suddeth in Gulf Shores AL
http://www.hurricanecity.com/live.ram
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sat Jun 11 2005 05:14 PM |
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structure
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eye or not, arlene had it's worst quadrant intruded upon by subsidence wrapped in from the south... where all the bad weather is supposed to be the convection is capped, and all the energy is being expended on the western, weak side. the pressure is still at 991, but with the structure all screwed up and recon only finding mid-gale strength winds at flight level, i'd safely assume that arlene isn't going to give the alabama or panhandle beaches any 70mph winds. last night before the convection became intermittent and less defined, recon was finding conditions normally associated with a minimal hurricane... nhc was hesitant to kick it up i guess (maybe they thought all the mandatory evacuations that would kick in would not be worth the risk)... but i've got a mind that season post-analysis will tag arlene as a minimal hurricane on the afternoon of june 10th, like claudette of 2003 was reanalyzed to have briefly been in the NW caribbean. effective landfall intensity going into the historic database will probably be 50-60mph, even with the low pressure hanging near 990... unless we get a last minute rally and a half. with the right quadrant smacked down like it's been, though... arlene shouldn't be a very memorable storm at the coast. after this afternoon it's a rain event/tornado threat only.
HF 1813z11june
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sat Jun 11 2005 05:22 PM |
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set your replies here
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one of the threads above is summarily executing replies. try replying to this one i just set to see if they'll stick. otherwise we'll need to add a new thread, or just start over and post a new topic.
HF 1821z11june
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Jun 11 2005 05:49 PM |
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Re: Thankfully Arlene Remains Tropical Storm
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test
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Jun 11 2005 05:50 PM |
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Re: Thankfully Arlene Remains Tropical Storm
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test 1234567
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Jun 11 2005 05:51 PM |
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Re: Conditions in Mobile
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test
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Jun 11 2005 05:52 PM |
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Arlene Remains Tropical Storm
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Arlene wasn't organized enough last night to get to Hurricane Strength, but it remains a strong Stropical Storm this morning. It's appearance on satellite still has most of the energy to the north and east, but the ragged eye has been visible on radar.
It has jjogged a little westward this morning making Alabama the most likely point of landfall, giving points east the worst iof it. It has one more chance to burst and make it to hurricane strength, but it isn't likely. And I hope it does not.
This possibility is why the Hurricane Warnings remain up. After landfall it will move inland quickly up through Alabama aroundand turn right around Kentucky, making a rain event for those areas with some rain. Since it's a fast mover the flooding chance is reduced, but it is still there because of possible downpours.
See jason Kelley's Lastest Blog for more discussion.
Outside of Arlene there is another area in the Northeastern Caribbean, but I don't expect much out of it currently. It is still June, after all. However, as it drifts westward it might reach an area where conditionks could be favorable for it. So it's something to watch.
Event Related Links
Key west long range radar loop
Tampa Long Range Radar loop
Color Sat of Arlene
Animated model plots for Arlene - Static model plot
Electronic Map Wall (PSU)
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Jun 11 2005 05:52 PM |
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Re: Arlene Remains Tropical Storm
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Last story got corrupted, sorry this is a repost. Responses should work now.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jun 11 2005 05:53 PM |
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Re: Conditions in Mobile
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Arlene has weakened to 60 mph--i think as a result of the slow movement upwelling water as well as pulling in more dry air from land
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sat Jun 11 2005 05:55 PM |
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Re: Arlene Remains Tropical Storm
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Thanks Mike! HF & I were trying to figure it out.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Jun 11 2005 09:15 PM |
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Re: Thankfully Arlene Remains Tropical Storm
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test 16