MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 10:06 PM |
Hurricane Dennis in the Caribbean
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9:50AM Update - July 7th
Dennis has made a northwestern jog over the last few hours and now it is likely to pass slightly north of Jamaica, as the NHC forecasted. Some of the model guidance has trended to the east again, we'll watch for persistence with the trends. If this persists it will force the keys to be under a watch tomorrow.
7:45AM Update - July 7th
Hurricane Dennis is now up to 105MPH Winds as it moves toward Jamaica. It is possible for it to reach Category 3 before nearing Jamaica.
7:00AM Update - July 7th
No real changes this morning, pressures are still dropping on Dennis, and tge windspeed is up, probably up some more at the 8AM advisory.
The future track hasn't changed much, still moving it into the gulf, west of the Florida peninsula and up toward the western panhandle toward New Orleans area, very similar to Hurricane Ivan's track last year. There is still a chance of varience in the late track, but trends seem to be settling on here for now.
How Dennis affects Jamaica, whether it passes north, south, or directy over the island, is still up for grabs. Jaimaica's mountainous interaction with the storm seems to do odd things (see ivan) so it'll be something to watch as it approaches there. People in Jamaica need to be prepared already.
Other places will still want to keep a watch through the weekend.
10:40PM Update
The Cayman Islands are now under a hurricane warning. Winds are up to 85MPH. Not much change on future track, or the certainty of it in the future. One good thing is that toward the end of the storm's path wind shear is forecast to increase, which may weaken the storm before landfall.
Additionally, another wave have come off the African coast, but for sanity's sake we won't mention that much more for a while unless something occurs. It's too early for long trackers, but you never know with this season.
8:45PM Update (Clark)
A slowing from 20mph down to 13mph, gradually over time, is more indicative of the system actually slowing down and not wobbles in the storm's path. It's reached an area where the steering currents are not as strong as they were towards the east; this motion should continue for another day or so before accelerating just slightly. However, any slowing and/or any hint of the storm becoming elongated north-south are prime indicators of a northward turn either in progress or about to occur.
Don't have time for a full update, but will leave you all with this: watch the shortwave current moving SE over central Kansas. It, coupled with the weak vortex near Dallas, are going to be the prime factors that influence Dennis to move north -- or not move north -- over the coming days. If the Kansas vortex continues to dive southward, the trough behind Cindy is going to become more amplified and likely capture Dennis before the models are predicting; the Dallas vortex may help this occur. If it begins to move towards the east, with the flow, Dennis should continue on a NW path to landfall in Louisiana. There is impetus for both scenarios to occur, but which one actually plays out remains to be seen. Right now, I would begin to believe the former rather than the latter, based off of synoptic trends and looking upstream over the northern Rockies, but there is some indication for the latter to occur as well.
The subtropical ridge is a bit weaker today than it was yesterday, though is pinched in the eastern Gulf by the remnants of Cindy's circulation. It extends to the Yucutan on its southern/southwestern extent, but only to Cedar Key, FL on the northern/northwestern side of things. These shortwaves should help keep the former in place and influence the latter; how much of this occurs will determine where the storm goes. Dennis bumping into it may play a role as well. There's still the chance of it slowing/stalling in the SE Gulf in 3-4 days, particularly if it gets caught outside of the influence of the ridge and the shortwave troughs, but I still don't consider it likely.
Do feel pretty confident, however, in saying that the GFS & UKMET are definitely on the west side of things, and the Canadian model is on the east side of things (though it is too fast). Slight ridging appears to be building over the intermountain western U.S., which would imply slight troughing along the east coast and a more northerly track for the storm, but again -- it's all about how much of an impact it has on Dennis. I can say, though, that as long as this giant upper low sits over the Pacific northwest of Hawaii, the pattern isn't going to shift greatly for awhile. Not exactly the greatest news for down the line into the season, though it'll likely weaken/break out before too long (just off of climatological factors alone).
Original Update
Dennis has now become a Hurricane, with 80MPH winds, expected to strengthen more over the next day or so as it gets closer to Jamaica. The current forecast track takes the center barely just north of Jamaica, but close enough to be felt. Folks there should prepare as if it may strike directly. Hurricane Warnings are up there.
After that, it will approach the Caymans and Cross over Cuba and likely enter the Gulf. Things are still somewhat uncertain after that, and the cone of error is large. But current model trends suggest the big Benda and Florida panhandle and points west toward New Orleans with the highest threat on Monday. However it may come close enough to the Florida Keys to cause concern there this weekend, and the cone still includes the west coast of Florida, so do not rule those out quite yet.
Bottom line is we still don't have a clear grasp of the storm 3 days out or so.
Do not focus on the line in the above maps, the storm is large and the cone of error that far out is even larger! I know those of you who had to deal with Ivan last year do not like that map.
Event Related Links
Monroe County/Florida Keys Emergency Management Bulletins
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands - Jamaican StormCarib Reports
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Jamaican Meteorological Service
Guantanamo Bay, Cuba Radar
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Dennis
Animated Model Plot of Dennis
Model Plot Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District of Dennis
Dennis Spaghetti Model from boatus
Weather Underground Model Plots for Dennis
Quikskat Image of Dennis
Floater Satellite (Visible) of Dennis with Storm Track Overlays
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Dennis
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Mobile Bay,
New Orleans, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 10:12 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Dennis in the Caribbean
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Well it took a little longer than some of us may have expected, but Dennis is now a 80mph Hurricane, and the first of the season. The structure of the hurricane still seems to be in a state of flux, with convection now reorganising after a bit of a pause earlier. Still, it looks as if the centre will move very near to Jamaica tomorrow, and personally i think it will be at Cat 2 when it does so. Certainly something the folks there dont need, let along the potential for 12" of rain too. Certainly one that anyone in the northwest Caribbean and anywhere around the GOM needs to be closely watching!
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 10:26 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Dennis in the Caribbean
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If you look at the water vapor image, every thirty minute loop...it really shows Dennis taking form...
It'll be a category two by tomorrow......possibly a cat three
entering the warm waters of the gulf as a major hurricane...
I bet you couldn't buy insurance right now...anywhere....and the insurance companies oughta pretty much go bankrupt this year.....
my boat insurance went up 40% because of the 4 hurricanes hitting Florida...and I paid it reluctantly....
glad I did...
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 10:32 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Dennis in the Caribbean
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Boy its hard to believe that on the NHC's present 5 day track this thing will impact the same area as Ivan.... that's unbelievable, and I would not be surprised if it does happen... this probably would even be worse than Ivan if Dennis comes in as a Cat 3.... If I was in Pensacoula I would be in shock right now.... you hope no ones gets a major but geesh I'd really hate to see these poor folks take another major hit like this.... I would think there is an outside chance that Dennis might weaking somewhat with the upwelling caused by Cindy but still a strong Cat 2 or weak Cat 3 is nothing to sneeze at...... especially in an area already devistated from Ivan fury last year.... I just hope it goes anywhere but where Ivan went.... expect of course Biloxi....
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 10:35 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Dennis in the Caribbean
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.... Ahem, or Punta Gorda. We went to the map store to pick up my new tracking map today (waterproof and laminated...) and we drove by the massive feema trailer park set up for people who still don't have houses.
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 10:36 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Dennis in the Caribbean
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poor lysis....i hope it doesnt hit us....
| firestar_1 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 10:40 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Dennis in the Caribbean
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I don't know about you, but I am not liking the feeling I am getting about this one.....already told the girlfriend to plane on leaving the area Saturday if this thing stays close to the coast...too much trash still laying around to handle high winds well........
| Southern4sure |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 10:40 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Dennis in the Caribbean
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Quote:
poor lysis....i hope it doesnt hit us....
I agree with you. I ran from Ivan, I hope I dont have to run from Dennis!
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 10:41 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Dennis in the Caribbean
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my bad Lysis, Punta Gorda would be tied with Pensacola as a city that I don't want Dennis to go to... and I'll put Biloxi third on my list behind these two cities that were pummeled last year.... but at least yall don't have the bulleye painted on you at the moment... but as we all know that could change....
| firestar_1 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 10:43 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Dennis in the Caribbean
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At least the media isn't telling everyone it is going to hit Tampa....then I would really begin to worry......
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 10:49 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Dennis in the Caribbean
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Looking around at my list of TV media weather pages, I am seeing a lot of wishcasting about sending the hurricane other places.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 10:49 PM |
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Re: Tampa
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YET...
MM
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 10:50 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Dennis in the Caribbean
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Yeah, and I got two Disney World trips planned and I sure would hate to see whats left of the temporary I-10 bridge in the Pensacola Bay when I need to use it in Oct and Dec... because a Cat 3 will probably take it down like Ivan did with the original.... maybe Fl will luck out an this thing will go more west, towards Central or West La... we'll have a pretty good idea by Friday evening I would imagine
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 10:53 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Dennis in the Caribbean
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Judging from the latest IR Loop, this thing really exploded recently.
Everyone in the gulf should keep an eye on this. It is still pretty far out.
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 10:54 PM |
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Re: Tampa
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ok now im in tampa...i didnt really need to see that;)....jk....i sure hope we dont get hit...that would spell disaster im thinking for alot of people...like myself...but im somewhat ready if it does decide to make that choice....
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 10:57 PM |
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Africa system and Dennis
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first, one thing: does anyone other than me think Cindy was a minimal hurricane at landfall?
someone mentioned the Africa system in teh other thread, and this is from the TWD at 2:30:
EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF 30W S
OF 23N. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM DAKAR AND SAL SHOW WAVE PASSAGE
NEAR 18Z JUL 3 AND 18Z JUL 4...RESPECTIVELY...WHICH SUPPORTS A
SLOW WWD TRANSLATION OF 5-10 KT. THE WAVE PRESENTS A COMPLEX
STRUCTURE AT THE MOMENT. MET-7 VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ABOUT 200 NM SW OF THE CAPE VERDES...WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY QUIKSCAT IMAGERY...
IR
VIS
98L by Friday probably if it holds together
Dennis is now strengthening, and the dry air to the west that was there earlier is now gone, replaced by a fully-wrapped CDO. The outflow has also become better defined in the last several hours. I expect we will see an eye begin to form before the end of the night. Anyone think it will become a Cat IV?
Is this early July or late August??
| Southern4sure |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 10:58 PM |
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Best Meteorologist in Tampa
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For all you seasoned hurricane watchers in the Tampa area, Who do you rely on the most for your local hurricane info? I do not know who is more accurate since I just moved here in Jan.
Thanks in advance
| Hurricane Fredrick 1979 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 10:58 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Dennis in the Caribbean
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Quote:
I don't know about you, but I am not liking the feeling I am getting about this one.....already told the girlfriend to plane on leaving the area Saturday if this thing stays close to the coast...too much trash still laying around to handle high winds well........
I got limbs to pick up from today (Cindy) but I told my wife that I was gonna wait till the big one comes and goes then pick it all up at one time.
| bigpapi |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 10:59 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Dennis in the Caribbean
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Looking at the last visible, it's hard to tell which direction Dennis is heading. However the whole system seems to be pulling more NW now. Is that just an illusion due to a growing system??
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 11:04 PM |
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Re: Best Meteorologist in Tampa
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hi southern ...well...to be honest with you....alot of the meteorologists here in tampa pretty much hype things up or they sugar coat everything....there have been several stations insisting that tampa is out of the running which i firmly dont believe...i honestly listen to what is being said here more so than on my local channels....just my opinion....stay safe and pray we dont get it....
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 11:06 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Dennis in the Caribbean
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it might be moving NW, but it might also be a combination of the expanding outflow/convection and the repositioning of the center (the 6pm adv. had it 1/10 degree due north of the 5pm adv.)
| FelixPuntaGorda |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 11:09 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Dennis in the Caribbean
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It sure is comforting to see all of you still here from last year. I have a question about storm surge, which was what I was most terrified of during Charley. Thank goodness it didn't happen.
I'm wondering, if Dennis skirts our west coast, how close in would it have to pass for us to get a significant surge? Our house is at 9 feet elevation on a canal just off Charlotte Harbor in Punta Gorda.
| Southern4sure |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 11:09 PM |
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Re: Best Meteorologist in Tampa
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Quote:
hi southern ...well...to be honest with you....alot of the meteorologists here in tampa pretty much hype things up or they sugar coat everything....there have been several stations insisting that tampa is out of the running which i firmly dont believe...i honestly listen to what is being said here more so than on my local channels....just my opinion....stay safe and pray we dont get it....
I agree with you. I watch one station and Tampa is targeted then another is Tampa is out of the target area. No wonder people get confused and are not prepared. Im like you, I get my info here first. Thank you to all the mets and general hurricane enthusiasts who help bring forth the info. Keep up the good work!
| AndyG |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 11:10 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Dennis in the Caribbean
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From what I can tell on my tracking map, it looks like it's making somewhat of a N swing. Does anyone else notice that?
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 11:12 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Dennis in the Caribbean
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Cat III direct hit would produce a 15 foot surge, but im not sure what the surge would be if the center passes offshore, but i do know that the whole west coast is in for some very large swells if this thing goes to Cat III as forecast (possibly 15-20 ft swells)
but i dont know what a surge would be like, but those swells shouldnt be anywhere near the homes if the surge is low
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 11:15 PM |
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Re: Best Meteorologist in Tampa
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Tom Terry from Orlando won my admiration during the 3 marauders last year.
| Southern4sure |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 11:16 PM |
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Re: Best Meteorologist in Tampa
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What station or channel?
| Londovir |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 11:20 PM |
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Re: Best Meteorologist in Tampa
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I'll give you my opinion, and if anyone disagrees, please take no offense at my opinion - to each their own!
I've been here for 10 years or so, and spent much of last year watching Directv during the 3 canes (and despite the cable company's line about satellite being "flaky", I'm sorry, but our sat went out only once for 10 minutes during Jeanne, always on for the other 2).
I like Steve Jerve (Channel 8 WFLA) the most of all the local chief mets. I think he's the most personable (he gets on Bob Hite a ton on the air), and he's fairly knowledgable. He did well last year in keeping people level-headed.
I think Paul Dellegatto (Channel 13 WTVT) is also a very good met, though for some reason I just don't feel the personality as much. I'd say it's like comparing a country doctor with a resident at County General: both know their stuff, both will take care of you, but you just somehow feel more comfy with one over the other.
And as for who I don't like -- that would be Denis Phillips (ABC 28). He always seems to have an overbearing attitude on-air, in the way he says things and how he comes across. Last year, he was adamant up until landfall practically that Charley was coming to Tampa Bay, not Punta Gorda. (I don't know if it's because ABC is an Accuweather channel or not). Personally, Linda is a better met I think than he is on ABC 28.
Oh, and of course there's Dick Fletcher on channel 10. He's the veteran (25 years+), but I don't see the personal drive from him that I see from Jerve. (IE, last year during one of them, Charley I think, Jerve was on-air pretty much the entire day that I can recall....)
| Brett |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 11:22 PM |
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Track and Models
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Questions, questions. I ran a 20 image loop of Dennis' visible imagery since this morning, and I too am noticing a move to the NW over the last few images. I know its early, and although it is normal for people to get concerned about each little jog and the possibility of something of this nature coming their way, but how much does each jog really effect the long term track? When will the recon data be put into the models so we can get a better picture of the output? Also, when will the models take into consideration better data from the air masses surrounding the storm that may affect its path? Sorry there are more questions than answers, but I am moving into a new house that does not yet have shutters, so this season is more of a big deal to me than others.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 11:26 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Dennis in the Caribbean
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Definitely a NW jog - it seems to be wobbling today since earlier this afternoon it took a westward jog - in fact, if u look at the 8 km high visible SAT and crank it to its fastest speed, you'll see the wobble all day - if it stays on this direction for more than 3 hours, its probably a slight shift in track - I will say, that some of the models (12Z canadian and 12Z MM5) indicate a more northwest movement from this point forward
| Brett |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 11:26 PM |
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Re: Track and Models
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By the way, the 18Z GFS is out, and we all better hope that this scenario does not play out. A storm crossing near New Orleans at that angle could be just about as bad as it gets.
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 11:28 PM |
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7:20pm update from Atlanta
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Unfortunately, another death can be attributed to Cindy as there has just been a fatal accident on Interstate 20 just east of downtown Atlanta. Right now there is a doppler indicated tornado heading right towards the NWS Peachtree City office/radar site. Hartsfield Jackson Airport looks to be in the cross-hairs very shortly(which is about a mile from where I live) and another big line is lining up on the Alabama/Georgia line.
Plus the NWS has extended the Tornado Watch until 2am now.
Before all you know what broke loose, the local mets were talking about Dennis and I did hear one local met draw the comparison between Dennis and Ivan...sheesh!
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 11:28 PM |
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Re: Track and Models
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Those jogs you can visualize as a raft on an ocean surface, It sometimes appears that it is really travelling and other times if you look it has not gone that far in distance. It really has to be observed over several hours in order to note a change that means anything significant in the long run. The model watchers and the satellite watchers have to remember that anything viewed through a 13 inch + screen can seem larger than life but not mean much in the outcome. The centers of growing hurricanes form and reform until the hurricane is at its maximum. Don't watch the little line watch the entire hurricane and landscape.
| Doombot! |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 11:32 PM |
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Re: Best Meteorologist in Tampa
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Quote:
And as for who I don't like -- that would be Denis Phillips (ABC 28). He always seems to have an overbearing attitude on-air, in the way he says things and how he comes across. Last year, he was adamant up until landfall practically that Charley was coming to Tampa Bay, not Punta Gorda.
Anyone but Dennis Phillips. He's an overbearing, lecturing know-it-all that is almost always wrong.
BTW, yes on the NW thing which would be worse for Florida if this isn't a jog. And someone called for Cat IV, and I'd have to agree if it totally misses Jamaca. I wouldn't be shocked to see Cat II at 11 based on how it's been blowing up the past 3 hours.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 11:33 PM |
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Re: Track and Models
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The storm does appear to have turned more towards the northwest, but that could partially be an artifact of the convective reorganization that has been ongoing for a few hours. The way it has redeveloped gives credence to the idea of dry air entrainment off of the coast of Hispaniola; now that it is nearer to the west side of the island, it is feeling such impacts to an increasingly less degree. The overall size of the storm does appear to have gotten a bit bigger today, giving credence to it turning a bit further north (to a simplified degree) if for no other reason.
I still do think it'll be a close call for Jamaica -- north, south, or over the island. Any scenario is likely, but I think whatever happens will even itself out in the end. A path over Havana looks pretty likely as well, though the intensity remains up for debate. Future track is where things diverge...and truth be told, I'm more willing to go with mesoscale models right now than the global models, as the former are more likely to capture the small-scale features that will play a huge role in influencing the track of Dennis more accurately. Nevertheless, other than shifts in the GFDL and, to a lesser extent, the UKMET today...most of the models have been pretty consistant in their runs throughout the day today. That doesn't bode well for predictability, because it'd be nice to see only a few of them do so and the others come closer to them instead of seeing a 300+ mile spread between the solutions in 4.5 days.
Bottom line: we still don't have much of an idea of where it is going. We will know more in a day or two, we hope, but may not be able to pin down a specific area for another 2-3 days.
More later...
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 11:34 PM |
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Re: Best Meteorologist in Tampa
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I REALLY COULDNT AGREE WITH YOU GUYS MORE ON DENNIS....i think he sugar coats things too....its not gonna impact tampa....its not gonna impact tampa....well one of these days hes gonna say that and WHAMMMM we are gonna get hit hard.....
| Brett |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 11:35 PM |
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Re: Track and Models
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Thanks Clark. Which models are the mesoscale models, and which ones are given the most credence, or historically perform the best? I understand the margin of error issue, and watching model trends, but I want to get better at understanding which information is the most relaible.
| AndyG |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 11:39 PM |
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Re: Best Meteorologist in Tampa
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As I recall, Jerve was the one that was on most of the day. He also was the first on to report that Charley had made that turn.
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 11:43 PM |
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Re: Best Meteorologist in Tampa
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why does it look like it has two eyes?
| Droop31 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 11:43 PM |
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Re: Track and Models
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Nice post Clark. I agree with you on everything. Just wish we knew where this was going. I have a bad feeling about Dennis. Its like Deja Vu from last year. Everyone is watching and waiting here. Im not paying attention to anyone on other sites proclaiming a trend to the west or a trend to the east, its all pointless at the moment.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 11:44 PM |
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Re: Best Meteorologist in Tampa
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I have to agree with everyone about Steve Jerve. That guy must have stayed up for 72 hours straight with naps in between. He also has a good, strong head on his shoulders and doesn't overhype, underhype -- he just tells it like he sees it. When I had to listen on the radio last year because we had no cable, his demeanor was the most calming.
Dennis Philips can kiss my grits.
| Southern4sure |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 11:45 PM |
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Re: Best Meteorologist in Tampa
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Thanks so much for the info.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 11:48 PM |
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Re: Track and Models
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Brett -- something like the MM5 is a mesoscale model, whichever flavor of the MM5 you prefer. The globals are the GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, UKMET, and so on. The statistical models take their output and modify it, whether as a simple mean or by applying some sort of regression/minimization technique to it, and include the FSU Superensemble and the various ensemble means.
I'm just primarily concerned about the ability of the global models -- which don't have quite as good resolution as the mesoscale models -- to pick up on the fine-scale features that will determine/influence Dennis' track. They may well prove to be perfect with the track, but as with any model output -- including the mesoscale and statistical model -- you've got to remain skeptical and use it as it is intended to be used: as guidance.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 11:50 PM |
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Re: Best Meteorologist in Tampa
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Jumping the gun: LOOK WHAT ABC ACTION NEWS IS SAYING
"Dennis has become the season's first hurricane. It looks like it will miss the bay area and Florida's west coast entirely. "! How do they KNOW SO far in advance!?
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 11:53 PM |
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Re: Best Meteorologist in Tampa
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The collective media compromises a group of highly paid morons. While the NHC has some problems of its own, an incompetent media doesn't help to relay an already obscure message like this.
Easy now...I am sure you don't include our mets in that group.
| Unregistered User |
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| Wed Jul 06 2005 11:54 PM |
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Re: Best Meteorologist in Tampa
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Their advice is misleading...there's no guarantee it will miss W. FL. I HOPE it does...but there is no guarantee....
| Unregistered User |
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| Wed Jul 06 2005 11:55 PM |
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Re: Best Meteorologist in Tampa
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Quote:
The collective media compromises a group of highly paid morons. While the NHC has some problems of its own, an incompetent media doesn't help to relay an already obscure message like this.
Agreed. This apply for almost everything on TV, not only weather forecasts
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 11:57 PM |
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Re: Best Meteorologist in Tampa
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They DON'T know, and that's why I can't stand watching them. Last year after Charley hit, they were trying to say they were "the best weather team in Tampa because we predicted the turn FIRST."
Yeah, I don't THINK so..
By the way...I just checked the satellite loops; looks to me like it isn't a jog, but a true NW movement. Will just have to keep on watching.
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 12:00 AM |
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Re: Best Meteorologist in Tampa
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Actually, they may only have the appearance of highly paid morons, as that is what they are designed to be. They dumb down the art of complex forecasting to the point where the everyman can figure out if it is going to rain or not on the way to work. Because of this retardation, it can become difficult to distinguish whether or not someone is genuinely an idiot, or just feigning it.
ahem... I am off topic
EDIT: Of course I don't include any of the fine people at flhurricane, or any of the genuine tv mets out there.
| BullitNutz |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 12:01 AM |
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Re: VIPIR?
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VIPIR is something I haven't let the proverbial jury back in for. Yet. I recall there being a big hubbub with one of the Bay Area stations and Charley, there being a single model showing the hard NE turn into Punta Gorda. IIRC, this was Vipir. Anyone care to confirm/kill?
I live in the East Orlando (UCF) area, attending the university, and home is Port Richey (central Pasco, along the 19 corridor) so I generally experience a lot of "crosstalk" when it comes to the various wx stations/personalities around here and at home.
Though I don't expect Dennis to roll through Orlando, I've got my apartment stocked. I'm a tad more worried about my hometown though. Anyone willing to impart a good digest of the conditions/general wisdom w.r.t. Dennis?
| firestar_1 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 12:02 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Dennis in the Caribbean
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Quote:
I got limbs to pick up from today (Cindy) but I told my wife that I was gonna wait till the big one comes and goes then pick it all up at one time.
LOL......hopefully Lowe's or Home Depot has those large trash bags on sale today or tomorrow for you........
| AndyG |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 12:04 AM |
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Re: VIPIR?
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Quote:
VIPIR is something I haven't let the proverbial jury back in for. Yet. I recall there being a big hubbub with one of the Bay Area stations and Charley, there being a single model showing the hard NE turn into Punta Gorda. IIRC, this was Vipir. Anyone care to confirm/kill?
I live in the East Orlando (UCF) area, attending the university, and home is Port Richey (central Pasco, along the 19 corridor) so I generally experience a lot of "crosstalk" when it comes to the various wx stations/personalities around here and at home.
Though I don't expect Dennis to roll through Orlando, I've got my apartment stocked. I'm a tad more worried about my hometown though. Anyone willing to impart a good digest of the conditions/general wisdom w.r.t. Dennis?
Yeah, it was Jerve with VIPIR
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 12:05 AM |
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Interesting post from Storm2K
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I just read a post by Steve in Storm2K.... FOX 8 weather uses a model program called Vipir, I am not that familiar with it, but I know it nailed Cindy's track 2.5 days out... Steve also mentioned it did very well last year with Ivan, and was accurate on both Arlene and Bret earlier this year.... for what is worth, and probaby not much this far out, it's latest run has Dennis impacting just west of NO... similar to a Betsy track.... as a side note, it was reported by Bob Breck, weather Guru at Fox 8, that he had friend at the NHC that said Dennis could be a Cat 4 at landfall... if this comes to fruition, and I'm not saying it will because I have no idea where Dennis is going, it would be very similar to another Georges 98 track, but only a lot stronger, and perhaps a worse case scenario for N'awlins... Steve, if your monitoring the board please feel to comment on the Vipir, and its track on Dennis...
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 12:08 AM |
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Re: Best Meteorologist in Tampa
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OK. Everyone chill on this, please! There are mets here local that I do not like... you have "forecasters" and you have "mets"... The majority of these people(I think) really do the best job they can with the info they have access to. We all have our trusted favorites and like models, the out in left field guys. I guess I am trying to prevent an all out bashing of mets/forecasters/on-air faces. We all again have things on the line and lets just do the best we can.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 12:10 AM |
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Re: VIPIR?
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I am 45 miles west of you/ The best advice is to wait until it gets to Cuba. By then you will know whether or not it will be close enough to the Peninsula to board up lock down or leave. But, if you are planning on getting gasoline, and don't have to use it sooner, I would get it now. By the time the media knows what side the butter is on, there won't be any gas to get. Orlando, Lake Wales and points West got really hit hard from the 3 last year and we all have good memories of what it takes to make it through. It is best to be over cautious. Especially on things you can use August through November.
| bigpapi |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 12:12 AM |
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Re: Best Meteorologist in Tampa
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Sorry for the technical questions. I've looked at the past discussions and I notice the 8pm advisory has Dennis moving 13mph. Now on the past advisories it mentioned Dennis moving about 16 mph and that general speed to continue for the next few days until it moves NW around the edge of the ridge.
Wouldn't this change some of the models and make a NW turn more towards central Cuba and put the Keys more at risk? Or will Dennis probably just speed up again.
Also Dennis looks like if he keeps the current heading for the next few hours, he may clip the southern most part of Haiti and miss to the north of Jamaica.
| AndyG |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 12:13 AM |
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Re: VIPIR?
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Yeah, I went tonight and got 30 gallons for the generator. Better safe than sorry. Last year I can remember waiting in line and then only able to buy premium.
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 12:13 AM |
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Re: VIPIR?
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is it me or does this thing have two eyes in a nose on the infrared? and it is going north of jamaica.
| Brett |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 12:15 AM |
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Slowing
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Yes, how much of a concern is the slowing trend? I know it was predicted that Dennis would slow its forward speed, but is this happening, or just a factor of growing hurricane like wobbles? Clark, thanks for the explanation. When will the first models be coming out with the data from recon?
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 12:16 AM |
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Re: Interesting post from Storm2K
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Quote:
I just read a post by Steve in Storm2K.... FOX 8 weather uses a model program called Vipir, I am not that familiar with it, but I know it nailed Cindy's track 2.5 days out... Steve also mentioned it did very well last year with Ivan, and was accurate on both Arlene and Bret earlier this year.... for what is worth, and probaby not much this far out, it's latest run has Dennis impacting just west of NO... similar to a Betsy track.... as a side note, it was reported by Bob Breck, weather Guru at Fox 8, that he had friend at the NHC that said Dennis could be a Cat 4 at landfall... if this comes to fruition, and I'm not saying it will because I have no idea where Dennis is going, it would be very similar to another Georges 98 track, but only a lot stronger, and perhaps a worse case scenario for N'awlins... Steve, if your monitoring the board please feel to comment on the Vipir, and its track on Dennis...
I know a little about it....I helped design parts of it...LOL.
The VIPIR model is a custom version of the MM5 with different physics and convectiive initation, and it outperformed pretty much everything on Charley last year, and did a pretty good job on some toher storms, but missed some as well...It is pretty good, but I wouldn't use it exclsuively...it is guidance, just like the rest of the modelling is. However, I can tell you that it doesn't call for a landfall west of NO, cause the model doesn't run out that far. It does HINT at it (if you extrapolate) but it doesn't have a landfall forecast. In addition, the previous runs have been back and forth with the tracks just as the rest of the modelling has been.
| Dougyd |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 12:19 AM |
Re: Hurricane Dennis in the Caribbean
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I'm in the same boat, living on a canal on Sanibel.
I've been researching storm surges from archives and the records are awful. Many major hurricane descriptions do not mention surges at all. In other cases, they are estimates.
One of the problems is the SLOSH model, weather folks use, does not take into account the direction, forward speed, quadrant hitting a specific point, etc.
During Andrew, our storm surge was supposed to be 12-18 ft. Instead, since it hit south of us, the canals and bays emptied out!
You just need to pay attention to the specific hurricane and not pay much attention to the tv weathermen.
Doug
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 12:20 AM |
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Re: Best Meteorologist in Tampa
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this is the exact reason i have no interest in what he has to say....id much rather listen to mets on here....thanks for all ur hard work guys.....
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 12:21 AM |
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Re: Interesting post from Storm2K
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Thanks for the update Jason.... if Breck is "extrapolating" that Dennis will hit west of NO, as reported in his weather segment, I'm sure it has the city's attention big time.... and if nothing else, they should be getting prepared like everyone else....
| Londovir |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 12:21 AM |
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Re: Interesting post from Storm2K
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You know, for what it's worth, I usually take the new generation of "power forecasting" units used by the tv channels with a grain of salt. Names like VIPIR, VORTEX, and TITAN are cute and well chosen names meant to evoke certain psychological reactions in viewers, no doubt.
But, you're right about VIPIR -- granted everything in modeling is merely trying to "fit a curve" to a set of input data, and as such is prone to various errors depending on the methods used. Still, VIPIR last year caught the Charley turn "first" (in terms of tv channels, not the experts on here or elsewhere), along with the pointed out accuracies with Cindy, Ivan, etc. Last night they had VIPIR on our local showing the track run, and at that point (last night) it had Dennis heading towards the eastern LA border.
Merely pointing this out as an observation about models in general. It'll be interesting to watch this system and see how the various models perform, all the while hoping that no one is affected by the system. (Hey, we can wish for a miracle storm breakup, can't we?)
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 12:23 AM |
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Re: Dennis' movement to the NW
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The system has slowed down since yesterday - this was forecasted. The Hurricane appears to be heading between Haiti and Jamaica which all of the models have predicted (although GFS has it shearing along the north side of the island). By no means is jamaica free & clear - the NW movement is there - the true test will be if it skirts south of most of Cuba or plows through the central part of the island - we should have a good idea where it might go in the GOM at that point (24 hours).
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 12:26 AM |
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Re: Interesting post from Storm2K
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we'll have to see how all this plays out and in about 5 days we'll see which models did the best with Dennis.... as we all know, they'll shift back and forth driving us all insane.... I'm getting lazy in my old age and I just watch and see what the NHC says... they're still the best in this business IMO
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 12:29 AM |
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Re: Interesting post from Storm2K
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Quote:
You know, for what it's worth, I usually take the new generation of "power forecasting" units used by the tv channels with a grain of salt. Names like VIPIR, VORTEX, and TITAN are cute and well chosen names meant to evoke certain psychological reactions in viewers, no doubt.
Just for general information, VIPIR is an acronym that stands for Volumetric Imaging and Processing of Integrated Radar...it was designed initally (and my work on it was) as a radar analysis tool...it has evolved into much more than that. It is a product of Baron Services, Inc, in Huntsville, AL.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 12:36 AM |
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Dennis Looking Better
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Dennis is looking pretty impressive tonight. The convection around the center is really starting to flare up. I bet by the 11pm the winds are up higher. Just my own 2 cents worth.
| PolkBB |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 12:37 AM |
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Re: Interesting post from Storm2K
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I'm starting to feel a little better as there doesn't seem to be any models that suggest a NNE turn like was forecast when Charley approached Jamaica. That should be helpful for W. Central FL.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 12:37 AM |
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Re: Interesting post from Storm2K
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I also heard it was very expensive... Jason did you get your fair share??? hehe
While I was there, yes...no residuals however...LOL...JK
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 12:37 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Dennis in the Caribbean
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#50 Published Wednesday July 06, 2005 at 6:15 pm EDT
At 6:00 pm EDT Dennis officially became a hurricane with sustained winds of 80 mph. He continues to move WNW or 295 degrees versus 290 degrees at 11:00 am EDT, at 14 mph but at times has wobbled to 305 degrees!!! During the day he has experienced a small amount of wind shear in it's western quadrants but is now primed for rapid intensification during the next 48 hours to a CAT 2-3 cyclone. I still think that at landfall Dennis will be a major CAT 3-4 cyclone.
Fortunately for the moment the official NHC TPC track has shifted to the left a bit with a Monday afternoon 07/11/05 landfall at Mobile Bay versus Pensacola, which would make the Florida peninsula a bit safer. Unfortunately though the confidence in the future track after the 2:00 pm Friday 07/08/05 position of 21.4 deg. N and 81.4 deg. W is virtually zero, so all of the west coast of Florida from Key West to Pensacola is still under the gun. Actually Key West to Biloxi, MS right now.
Why virtually zero? Well as an example the 2:00 pm EDT today run of the NAM model places Dennis across the southern Florida peninsula on Saturday 07/09/05. The 8:00 am EDT run of the Canadian GGEM model has Dennis running up and across the Florida peninsula into Georgia on Saturday. In the other extreme the 2:00 pm EDT run of the GFS places landfall in SE Louisiana early Monday morning 07/11/05.
Just a reminder that just three hours before CAT 4 Charley's landfall at Charlotte Harbor last year all of the models were placing landfall in and around Tampa Bay as a CAT 4-5 cyclone. In other words all of the models were wrong just three hours before landfall.
Bottom line? I think that the Bermuda high pressure ridge is going to weaken more than most of the models are forecasting. Right now I'm going with a landfall window a little to the right of my previous forecast to between Pensacola and Fort Walton Beach on Monday morning as a CAT 3-4.
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Meteorologist & Space Plasma Physicist
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf@arrl.net
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249
Plant City, FL NWS CWOP Weather Station #AR692 Live Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index1.html
Plant City, FL NWS CWOP Weather Station #AR692 3 Minute Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.html
Plant City, FL Daily Climatological Weather Data Archive Blog: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm
Florida Daily Weather Discussion Blog: http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm
Florida Raw Weather Forecasting Product Links: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf13.htm
Global Warming Refuted: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf42.htm
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 12:38 AM |
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Re: Slowing
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A slowing from 20mph down to 13mph, gradually over time, is more indicative of the system actually slowing down and not wobbles in the storm's path. It's reached an area where the steering currents are not as strong as they were towards the east; this motion should continue for another day or so before accelerating just slightly. However, any slowing and/or any hint of the storm becoming elongated north-south are prime indicators of a northward turn either in progress or about to occur.
Don't have time for a full update, but will leave you all with this: watch the shortwave current moving SE over central Kansas. It, coupled with the weak vortex near Dallas, are going to be the prime factors that influence Dennis to move north -- or not move north -- over the coming days. If the Kansas vortex continues to dive southward, the trough behind Cindy is going to become more amplified and likely capture Dennis before the models are predicting; the Dallas vortex may help this occur. If it begins to move towards the east, with the flow, Dennis should continue on a NW path to landfall in Louisiana. There is impetus for both scenarios to occur, but which one actually plays out remains to be seen. Right now, I would begin to believe the former rather than the latter, based off of synoptic trends and looking upstream over the northern Rockies, but there is some indication for the latter to occur as well.
The subtropical ridge is a bit weaker today than it was yesterday, though is pinched in the eastern Gulf by the remnants of Cindy's circulation. It extends to the Yucutan on its southern/southwestern extent, but only to Cedar Key, FL on the northern/northwestern side of things. These shortwaves should help keep the former in place and influence the latter; how much of this occurs will determine where the storm goes. Dennis bumping into it may play a role as well. There's still the chance of it slowing/stalling in the SE Gulf in 3-4 days, particularly if it gets caught outside of the influence of the ridge and the shortwave troughs, but I still don't consider it likely.
Do feel pretty confident, however, in saying that the GFS & UKMET are definitely on the west side of things, and the Canadian model is on the east side of things (though it is too fast). Slight ridging appears to be building over the intermountain western U.S., which would imply slight troughing along the east coast and a more northerly track for the storm, but again -- it's all about how much of an impact it has on Dennis. I can say, though, that as long as this giant upper low sits over the Pacific northwest of Hawaii, the pattern isn't going to shift greatly for awhile. Not exactly the greatest news for down the line into the season, though it'll likely weaken/break out before too long (just off of climatological factors alone).
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 12:42 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Dennis in the Caribbean
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Compare the current forecast track to two storms from last year, Charley, and Ivan...
Charley here is near the current position, the situation in the atmosphere differs, however. So this scenario isn't so likely.
This one is more likely, although still very different, but i thought it may be interesting to show the two vs Dennis.
| BullitNutz |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 12:48 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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I'm in agreement on that one. Well, advisory from NHC also projects it strengthening to a cat 2 by Thurs. The projections are still a bit wide for me to place any bets on it landing anywhere on the peninsula, and it's not really my kind of odds for it to even hit Florida at all. However, we'll have to see. I still can't find any type of map showing the air masses/currents aloft for the Gulf. If anything it would make me feel a bit better. Anyone know of a source?
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 12:56 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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Quote:
I'm in agreement on that one. Well, advisory from NHC also projects it strengthening to a cat 2 by Thurs. The projections are still a bit wide for me to place any bets on it landing anywhere on the peninsula, and it's not really my kind of odds for it to even hit Florida at all. However, we'll have to see. I still can't find any type of map showing the air masses/currents aloft for the Gulf. If anything it would make me feel a bit better. Anyone know of a source?
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/winds-dlm.html
This one is my favorite, but I'm not seeing maps when I load the page. Tell me if it works for you.
| BullitNutz |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 01:01 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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Quote:Quote:
I'm in agreement on that one. Well, advisory from NHC also projects it strengthening to a cat 2 by Thurs. The projections are still a bit wide for me to place any bets on it landing anywhere on the peninsula, and it's not really my kind of odds for it to even hit Florida at all. However, we'll have to see. I still can't find any type of map showing the air masses/currents aloft for the Gulf. If anything it would make me feel a bit better. Anyone know of a source?
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/winds-dlm.html
This one is my favorite, but I'm not seeing maps when I load the page. Tell me if it works for you.
Thanks! Exactly what I was looking for. I saw the maps. Perhaps they were in the midst of updating their data? (Unlikely) Or maybe there was just a hiccup in the transfer. It work after a refresh or two?
| StormSurfer |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 01:02 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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Holy Macaroni! It looks very impressive and huge already and looks like it gonna build more. Make sure you guys have everything ready and don't wait around wondering whether it's coming to your area or not. Just be ready! Looks like the other one out in the Atlantic could be a biggie too even though its too early to tell or worry about right now with Dennis looking like it is.
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 01:05 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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Quote:Quote:Quote:
I'm in agreement on that one. Well, advisory from NHC also projects it strengthening to a cat 2 by Thurs. The projections are still a bit wide for me to place any bets on it landing anywhere on the peninsula, and it's not really my kind of odds for it to even hit Florida at all. However, we'll have to see. I still can't find any type of map showing the air masses/currents aloft for the Gulf. If anything it would make me feel a bit better. Anyone know of a source?
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/winds-dlm.html
This one is my favorite, but I'm not seeing maps when I load the page. Tell me if it works for you.
Thanks! Exactly what I was looking for. I saw the maps. Perhaps they were in the midst of updating their data? (Unlikely) Or maybe there was just a hiccup in the transfer. It work after a refresh or two?
No-it didn't work, not even after refreshing the webpage. I'll try clearing my cache now.
| BullitNutz |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 01:10 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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Quote:
No-it didn't work, not even after refreshing the webpage. I'll try clearing my cache now.
That's probably the best idea. Cache clear, restart browser. If your problem persists, it's time for a hammer.
| PolkBB |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 01:14 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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Quote:Quote:
No-it didn't work, not even after refreshing the webpage. I'll try clearing my cache now.
That's probably the best idea. Cache clear, restart browser. If your problem persists, it's time for a hammer.
Ahh, hammer, my favorite tool for computer errors
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 01:18 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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Quote:Quote:
No-it didn't work, not even after refreshing the webpage. I'll try clearing my cache now.
That's probably the best idea. Cache clear, restart browser. If your problem persists, it's time for a hammer.
Tried cleaning cache and restarting the browser. POS still didn't load. Here's the homepage for all of this stuff:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/tropic.html
That webpage loads for me, but when I click on any of the menu items on the left side of page, I get the hurricane looking background, but nothing else loads.
Any ideas? If not, I will got get my hammer!
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 01:20 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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If that storm gets bigger...it won't matter if it's off the west coast of Florida by 100 miles...we're gonna get wet at the very least. It already looks to be the size of Texas!
| Mike S |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 01:21 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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Quote:
The projections are still a bit wide for me to place any bets on it landing anywhere on the peninsula, and it's not really my kind of odds for it to even hit Florida at all.
Well I hope your right, but at least the people around here are not taking any chances after Ivan last year. The gas cans bragaids are out in force, and I imagine most of the lumber yards will be empty by friday along with the gas stations from the looks of it. I still haven't gotten all the trees out of my yard from Ivan and as wet as it has been I imagine we'll lose the rest if it comes this way again.
| Droop31 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 01:30 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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I must say the update you have for us on the main page Clark is excellent. You did an awesome job explaining everything that could influence Dennis. I like how you keep the door open for landfall anywhere along the eastern/central gulf. Lately it seems people are latching on to a New Orleans hit, Not that its out of the question, it certainly isnt but there are many other areas around the gulf that may have to deal with Dennis. Like I said a few days ago, Im thinking landfall will occur somewhere from Morgan City to Applachicola. I know its a large area but we are 4 to 5 days out, theres no reason to be specific right now. Watch the trends and pray we have some upwelling in the gulf from Arlene and Cindy, if not there isnt much else that will slow down Dennis. Have a good night everyone and happy tracking.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 01:39 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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There is a little bit of upwelling and mixing in the Gulf from Cindy, but it is confined largely to the north of the Yucutan. Most of the waters north of there to the Louisiana coast are same of the warmest in the basin -- and are especially deep with that warmth -- meaning that when coupled with the relatively fast motion of the storm through to landfall, there is little signature of the storm there.
With Dennis projected to emerge north of Cuba, it is not likely to feel any of the ocean temperature impacts from Cindy. Note that Arlene was too long ago -- a month now -- for its effects to still be around. A tropical storm will only typically impact ocean temperatures for 5 or so days; stronger hurricanes can have longer-lasting impacts, but not a tropical storm.
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 01:44 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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I am sitting on my back porch watching a bunch of guys boarding up one of my neighbors homes.
...I guess better safe than sorry, right?
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 01:44 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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Clark I hope you are right. It seems every hurricane that comes to this part of the gulf makes the dreaded "right turn". Opal, Erin, Ivan, Arlene, etc all seemed to turn to the north or Right as they got about 100-150 miles from land. Accuweather says it is because the water is cool here (compared to the rest of the Gulf) Tonight the Gulf Temp is 83 at Pensacola Beach.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 01:53 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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Quote:
Clark I hope you are right. It seems every hurricane that comes to this part of the gulf makes the dreaded "right turn". Opal, Erin, Ivan, Arlene, etc all seemed to turn to the north or Right as they got about 100-150 miles from land. Accuweather says it is because the water is cool here (compared to the rest of the Gulf) Tonight the Gulf Temp is 83 at Pensacola Beach.
And all this time, I thought it was because the upper air systems influenced the turn.
| Prospero |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 01:55 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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I have a question or two.
Watching the water vapor loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
I see a wave of sorts that starts at about 68/25 and seems to ripple north to 68/30 or so. It is subtle, but does appear to come from Dennis.
Is this a phenonemom that is common?
What effect does it have on the surrounding air masses?
| VandyBrad |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 01:56 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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I've been out of the loop for the past several hours working on some data, but I just glanced at the forcast models to see what is going on. Am I seeing the 18z GFDL correct? I think I see a frame that shows Dennis with Cat 5 winds just prior to landfall in Cuba. Just want to make sure I'm reading the models right. Thanks...
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:06 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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I can't help but see a stronger northward componant, especialy in the last few frames. Perhapes my eyes are playing tricks on me, after watching about 1000 of these loops today...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:12 AM |
Re: Dennis Looking Better
|
yep, 141 knots at friday 8AM EDT just prior to landfall in west-central Cuba from the GFDL 18 Z run. That coverts to 161 mph if I've done my math correct.
Can we say that Dennis will be the brother of Camille? I know the GFDL tends to over do it, but probably a CAT 4 is not out of the realm of possibility.
Remember, that's the 18Z model. Before Dennis became a hurricane. The 00Z model will replece that in around 3 hours.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:13 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
|
I've been noticing that, too. If you put your finger on the first loop and watch it till the end, you can definitely see a more NW movement instead of WNW. Guess we'll know soon enough. I definitely don't think it's a jog.
Than again, I'm not a met and I don't jog.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:14 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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If it stays on it's current track,it woud hit the middle keys.And there is some info that suggest it could be a little east of that.So South Fl. is far from being out of the woods.
| PolkBB |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:15 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
|
Quote:
I can't help but see a stronger northward componant, especialy in the last few frames. Perhapes my eyes are playing tricks on me, after watching about 1000 of these loops today...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html
It does appear that way but it will be interesting to see how that path continues as Dennis navigates through the islands.
| Tropics Guy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:16 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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Latest infrared is showing that Dennis is developing a strong eyewall and continues to look better organized. I have him currently moving at 305 degrees which will take him just to about the NE corner of Jamaica continuing towards the south coast of Cuba. Think Dennis will be a CAT 2 by tomorrow morning or midday at the latest.
TG
| PolkBB |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:17 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
|
The 11PM discussion is coming soon. I wonder if the NHC will address the "apparent" NW "jog".
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:17 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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all i can say is watch out a Mobile, AL..your up on the plate..again
i believe you got Arlene, Cindy, and expect Dennis..sorry
-Saty safe Mobile-er's..
Ryann
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:17 AM |
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Wishcasting or Fearcasting
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I can't make up my mind which one is going on here tonight. I have seen nothing in the loops to suggest a NW movement. There was possibly a jog earlier, but the last few frames show a jog back to the west...generally still a wnw movement. That said, it does now appear he will graze the north coast of Jamaica.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:18 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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And it has slowed once again,you all know what I think that means.
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:19 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
|
This hurricane will be quite large in diameter...we could really use one of Skeetobites maps to overlay the current size in the GOM. I think many of us will unexpectedly feel the effects of this sucker.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:21 AM |
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Re: Wishcasting or Fearcasting
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I don't think anyone is wishcasting or fearcasting. I just think we're seeing something; we might be right, we might be wrong. We're just talking about it, that's all.
| Prospero |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:21 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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To me it seems clear that the dynamics to north are changing very quickly.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:22 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
|
Quote:
The 11PM discussion is coming soon. I wonder if the NHC will address the "apparent" NW "jog".
my bet is that they'll adjust the track to a 305 or 310 degree heading which is a change from the 295 deg heading discussed during the 5 PM update. Still think it's too early to see if this affects long-term track
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:22 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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And just for the record,I am not writing off a se fl hit.And believe me this is not a wishcast.
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:25 AM |
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Re: Wishcasting or Fearcasting
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I know...it just seems that some are really stretching to get this thing to turn north...There is just no evidence of that at this time. Like I said, it may have jogged north, but has now jogged back west. I agree with Tropics Guy that it aqppears an eye is starting to show it's ugly head and is moving WNW. We shall see soon. Regardless, by the time we wake in the morning, an eye will have probably formed and the speculation on movement can end.
| Tropics Guy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:26 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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Quote:
If it stays on it's current track,it woud hit the middle keys.And there is some info that suggest it could be a little east of that.So South Fl. is far from being out of the woods.
If the current NHC track pans out, only the lower keys will see tropical force winds as it brushes by, though any deviation to the north would change the scenario.
TG
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:27 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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why not
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:29 AM |
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Dennis
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I think it is important to note,that Ivan and Charley went just south of Jamica.Also Earl.And we know where they ended up.So if Dennis goes just north of Jamica.................Well that is just one of many reasons I am not writing off south Florida.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:31 AM |
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Re: Wishcasting or Fearcasting
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Quote:
I know...it just seems that some are really stretching to get this thing to turn north...There is just no evidence of that at this time. Like I said, it may have jogged north, but has now jogged back west. I agree with Tropics Guy that it aqppears an eye is starting to show it's ugly head and is moving WNW. We shall see soon. Regardless, by the time we wake in the morning, an eye will have probably formed and the speculation on movement can end.
I think a slight turn to the northwest has occurred from earlier this afternoon..this may be due to the expanding convection or slight weakening in the ridge. The slight turn was picked up on by most of the models as they have the storm moving between Hispanola and Jamaica. As i said B4, its way too early to say its movin more toward the FL peninsula - to me, it's about right on track with the model guidance
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:32 AM |
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|
accuweather
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A statement here from Accuweather regarding the models
"The North American Regional model (NAM) takes Dennis into south Florida early Saturday morning and the Canadian model shows Dennis hugging the west coast of Florida then moving northward. These two models seemed to catch the strength of the Atlantic ridge at times much better than other computer models. So, we can't discount these solutions just yet."
Much of the western Florida coast remains in the cone of uncertainty as of 5pm, so i am not ready to write it off either.
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:33 AM |
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Re: Wishcasting or Fearcasting
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Now that I can agree with. Very close to the 18Z GFDL and UKMET.
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SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:34 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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Quote:
This hurricane will be quite large in diameter...we could really use one of Skeetobites maps to overlay the current size in the GOM. I think many of us will unexpectedly feel the effects of this sucker.
Here is the closest we can get to rendering the current "apparent" size of this entire system. We did an overlay of the latest satellite image and drew our circle to the farthest extent of the feeder bands.
Keep in mind that the official data indicates that at 5pm est the tropical storm force winds extended 105 miles from center (much less than half this total area) and that hurricane force winds extended just 25 miles from center.
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:35 AM |
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Re: Dennis
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i have been saying that all day long. so anyone seen the new wave its huge?
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:37 AM |
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Re: accuweather
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Also if you look at the projected path,Jamica is right in the middle,soooooooo if he goes just to the north of Jamica they will have to shift everything east.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:37 AM |
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Re: Wishcasting or Fearcasting
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Everyone has their opinion on where its going. Some insist it will go to where they live ( although they say , they dont want it). Its ok for them to say what they want, as long as they dont say things like " I heard a met say that Miami will be hit forsure" There are people browsing this forum who never post and just check updates. We dont want to scare anyone.
Every year we get a new person or 2 that will say its coming their way, no matter if its only a wobble on a sat view or they miss interpeted something they heard.
To know the best forecasters in here are the guys who post the blogs. There are others though who are also good interpeters of the weather.
scottsvb
| VandyBrad |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:38 AM |
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Re: accuweather
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From weatherunderground... the 11pm has Dennis at 85 mph.
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:38 AM |
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11Pm out
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Still moving WNW.....winds up to 85.....still projected landfall around Mobile...Pressure down to 980.
Generally not much change to previous update.
| RedingtonBeachGuy |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:38 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
|
Clark - anyone - look at this link and tell me what I am seeing in the lower left hand quadrant off and south of Naples.. is that a low starting to form? I am looking at the rotation of the winds..
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/ldis/4km/ldis_currentwx_wp.html
| nowhammies |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:38 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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Now that is an everyone gets wet storm. Feeling more like I need to make sure my hurricane supplies are all in place even here. Still a bit shell shocked from the surprizes of Charley
BTW: not panicing or anything - just waking up and realizing that time of year is here already
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:39 AM |
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Re: Dennis
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Look as if there is little change in the overall track for the 11pm package, western peninsula remains in the cone. Stewart is writing the discussion again tonight, should be another good one.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:40 AM |
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Re: Wishcasting or Fearcasting
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Bob they been showing it moving N of Jamaica for days. They wont change the path to S Florida cause of that.
| RedingtonBeachGuy |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:41 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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outSTANDING stuff Skeeto.. now THAT is what I call advance knowledge... getting better and better all the time
now do that to the FSU model that is the potentially closest track to the west coast of florida..
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:43 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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I may have misunderstood Clark,But he seems to be leaning towards a more easterly track.Sorry if I am wrong Clark.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:44 AM |
|
Re: accuweather
|
Quote:
A statement here from Accuweather regarding the models
"The North American Regional model (NAM) takes Dennis into south Florida early Saturday morning and the Canadian model shows Dennis hugging the west coast of Florida then moving northward. These two models seemed to catch the strength of the Atlantic ridge at times much better than other computer models. So, we can't discount these solutions just yet."
Much of the western Florida coast remains in the cone of uncertainty as of 5pm, so i am not ready to write it off either.
I wouldn't write off the west coast of Florida as Denis Phillips apparently did on local ABC Tampa station tonight. The FSU MM5 (mesoscale model) has been pretty consistent during its 00Z and 12 Z runs today - keeping Dennis running north along 84-85 deg W - which puts this large storm dangerously close to the entire west coast of FL. It's interesting that both Clark and Ed (FL Central METs) are in some agreement that the global models may be overplaying the strength of the ridge - the FSU MM5 model may be picking up more local pertubations in the pattern, suggesting a closer track to the peninsula
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:44 AM |
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Re: Wishcasting or Fearcasting
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Someone remind me not to be busy and away from the computer from 730 AM-930 PM when there's a hurricane going on... 33 pages of posts was kind of hard to catch up on!!!
Looking at the IR, it almost appears that Dennis is going to split in two... Maybe that could solve all of the debate... half of him will go west and the other half east...
The one good thing that happened today is my lawn guy happened to come to mow my grass and cleaned up my branch-ladden yard. I told my mom this, and she said he should have waited until after Dennis... hhmm, if Dennis comes, I'm sure the cleanup will be more than a couple of branches...
He's up to 85 mph winds...
| Bev |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:46 AM |
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History...
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A matter of personal curiosity. I fled the Bradenton coast last year for Charley and headed inland to Arcadia where we endured cat 4 winds.
Does anyone remember who, on the boards - if anyone - forecast the more Eastward turn that Charley made which was in direct contradiction to the "official" forecast until it was too late to do much except pray?
Thanks,
Bev
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:46 AM |
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happing tracking and goodnight
|
We should have an eye to follow by the morning.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:47 AM |
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Re: Wishcasting or Fearcasting
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Scott,
If Jamica is in the middle of the projected path,and it goes north of Jamica,they would have to change the cone to the east.Sorry, but to me that is just commen sence.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:48 AM |
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Re: happing tracking and goodnight
|
That was me Bev..lol
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:48 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
|
Thanks Skeeto. I suspected the size would be large. I imagine as the storm strengthens, the hurricane force winds and TS winds will expand outward from the center. I think Dennis might have more surprises in store for us. I am always suspicious when the models are in so much agreement this early. Raise your hand if you can remember a storm that DID NOT follow the early model consensus. I mean this storm is not even past Jamaica yet! I am not convinced of any landfall point just yet. For me, I will feel safe when it passes my longitude and latitude.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:49 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
|
Nope, Bob all models have been forecasting Dennis to move N and E of Jamaica. Just cause it goes E of there, why do you think it will go to you?
| VandyBrad |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:51 AM |
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Re: Wishcasting or Fearcasting
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From the 11pm advisory: "Dennis is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph...24 km/hr... and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. On this track...Dennis is expected to pass over or just east of Jamaica by Thursday afternoon. "
As an aside, a slight deviation to the east bypassing Jamaica does not necessarily imply a dramatic shift east later.
| Bev |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:53 AM |
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Re: happing tracking and goodnight
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LOL Thanks Scott, I should have paid more attention. I thought I remembered somebody making the case for the eastward move, but couldn't remember whodunit.
I would say "kudos" on your excellent call, but it was too miserable an experience to do so! However, will watch your posts with interest. <grin>
And no, I'm not going ANYWHERE this year except behind my plywood with lots of water, food and generator.
Quote:
That was me Bev..lol
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:54 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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I am not saying it will hit miami/ft laud,but I am also not ready to say it won't.The slower he goes the more the high has a chance to move more east.As someone else said,it's not even to Jamica yet!!!!!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:55 AM |
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Re: Wishcasting or Fearcasting
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Lol, everyone here (me included) are professional wishcasters
| FelixPuntaGorda |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:56 AM |
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|
Re: Hurricane Dennis in the Caribbean
|
Thanks to those who answered my question about surge. I know if a storm comes in, like Charley did, the surge will be to the south (speaking of Charlotte/Lee County area where I live). I know we'll flood here in Cat 1 or 2 coming in. But it's frustrating to not have access to what a hurricane does when it rides up along the coast. I think it was Gabrielle that brought our canal up onto the grass. I'm not worried about waves or swells, but we'll be trapped here if we don't get out ahead of rising water. Not to mention that most of Charlotte County is at 12 feet elevation or less.
I'm not in a panic, but we'll have decisions to make at some point so I'm trying to gather information.
| VandyBrad |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:56 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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One of your main arguements for a SE FL event all day has been the trend towards slower speeds (20mph to 13mph). What do you make of the latest advisory suggesting Dennis is back up to 15mph, Bob?
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:56 AM |
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Re: Wishcasting or Fearcasting
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Quote:
Scott,
If Jamica is in the middle of the projected path,and it goes north of Jamica,they would have to change the cone to the east.Sorry, but to me that is just commen sence.
It might appear to be common sense, but in reality this is not the case...
Ivan was forecast to cross Cuba and Jamaica, but as we know it jogged more south and missed them both...however, this didn't affect the eventual final forecast, as the models that 'missed' the south jogs still got the final idea correct. Missing Jamaica to the south doesn't necessarily mean a more westward track, just as moving north of Jamaica doesn't mean a more northerly track on the whole.
|
SkeetoBite
|
| (Master of Maps) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:57 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
|
The tropical storm force wind field for Dennis grew about 40 miles wider between the 5pm and 11pm advisories. Impressive growth for 6 hours work. Hurricane force windfield remains at 25 miles from center (that's 50 miles across for the new folks)
| VandyBrad |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:59 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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They sure are taking their time with the discussion tonight. Hopefully, it will clear up some of these questions.
|
SkeetoBite
|
| (Master of Maps) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 03:02 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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Quote:
They sure are taking their time with the discussion tonight. Hopefully, it will clear up some of these questions.
It's out:
Hurricane Dennis Discussion Number 10
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on July 06, 2005
Dennis has finally mixed out the dry air that had wrapped into the
center during the day. Air Force Reserve and NOAA hurricane hunter
aircraft have been flying into Dennis this afternoon and evening...
and reports indicate surface winds have likely increased to at least
75 kt and the pressure has decreased to at least 980 mb...a
pressure drop of 7 mb in the past 5 hours. A CDO feature has also
developed over the center in satellite imagery...and a warm
spot/pre-eye feature has been trying to develop the past couple of
hours. However...an earlier SSMI microwave overpass indicated a
closed eye had already developed in the mid-levels.
The initial motion estimate is 300/13. There are no changes to
previous track forecast or reasoning. The models remain in strong
agreement that the subtropical ridge currently extending east-west
across the Florida Peninsula will remain intact through 60-72
hours. This should keep Dennis moving west-northwestward through 72
hours. After that...however... the models vary significantly on how
the mid-latitude flow pattern evolves across the central and
western U.S....which ultimately has an impact on the steering flow
over the Gulf of Mexico. Half of the models build a high amplitude
ridge over the Great Lakes and southwestward into the Southern
Plains...while the other models like the nam...Canadian...GFDL...
and NOGAPS have less ridging and more troughing over the western
and central Gulf. Overall...the model guidance has shifted slightly
to the right. Given this uncertainty in the longer range...the
official forecast track is just an extension of the previous track.
Now that a CDO and eye have developed...the only inhibiting factor
would be interaction with land. In the absence of that...the low
shear and 29c SSTs favor significant intensification for at least
the next 48 hours. The latest GFDL model run brings Dennis to 127
kt in 36 hours...while the SHIPS model is fairly robust in taking
Dennis up to 107 kt in 60 hours. All of the models agree that some
southwesterly shear could affect the hurricane just prior to making
landfall...so slight weakening is indicated at 96 hours.
Forecaster Stewart
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 07/0300z 16.5n 73.4w 75 kt
12hr VT 07/1200z 17.6n 75.4w 85 kt
24hr VT 08/0000z 19.2n 77.8w 95 kt
36hr VT 08/1200z 20.7n 80.1w 105 kt
48hr VT 09/0000z 22.2n 82.1w 105 kt
72hr VT 10/0000z 25.0n 85.0w 105 kt
96hr VT 11/0000z 28.5n 87.0w 100 kt
120hr VT 12/0000z 32.0n 88.5w 80 kt...inland
$$
| stormchazer |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 03:07 AM |
|
|
Re: Dennis Looking Better
|
I am not sure that this discussion clears up a whole lot. I have been telling my sis in Gulfport to say goodbye to Cindy and get herself ready for Dennis.
| PolkBB |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 03:12 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
|
The closer it gets the more likely a central gulf hit seems to be the right call.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 03:13 AM |
|
Re: Dennis Looking Better
|
Quote:
I am not sure that this discussion clears up a whole lot. I have been telling my sis in Gulfport to say goodbye to Cindy and get herself ready for Dennis.
I agree, from NHC 11PM
The initial motion estimate is 300/13. There are no changes to
previous track forecast or reasoning. The models remain in strong
agreement that the subtropical ridge currently extending east-west
across the Florida Peninsula will remain intact through 60-72
hours. This should keep Dennis moving west-northwestward through 72
hours. After that...however... the models vary significantly on how
the mid-latitude flow pattern evolves across the central and
western U.S....which ultimately has an impact on the steering flow
over the Gulf of Mexico. Half of the models build a high amplitude
ridge over the Great Lakes and southwestward into the Southern
Plains...while the other models like the nam...Canadian...GFDL...
and NOGAPS have less ridging and more troughing over the western
and central Gulf. Overall...the model guidance has shifted slightly
to the right.Given this uncertainty in the longer range...the
official forecast track is just an extension of the previous track
Looks like NHC is punting after 72 hours...will someone flip a coin?
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 03:14 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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Overall...the model guidance has shifted slightly
to the right. So I am not a dummy yet.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 03:18 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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Well bob of course your not out of the woods............ Just lets keep watching the model runs. I feel after the 12z come out tomorrow we will know if Florida will be hit east of 85dg W. We will know cause of the model trends and how the shortwaves are affecting the ridge over the state.
|
MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 03:21 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
|
Bob, I don't think it's realy trending one way or the other yet. In fact, it may go back a bit west later on. I'm feeling slightly better for the peninsula tonight, but not much. ( Better that it will pass it on by, unforunately for the Panhandle and other parts of the Gulf)
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 03:21 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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I agree Scott.Hopefully I can write this off for us here in se fl. by tommorow night.
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 03:24 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
|
im just not seeing it yet with the west track. i mean all the models are meeting each other i find that very odd
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 03:26 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
|
Bob...there are no "dummies" here as far as I'm concerned. There are, of course, those who know more than we do because they are mets, and that helps us learn. However, we amatuers use our eyes and what knowledge we DO have when we post. We may sometimes be wrong, sometimes be right. But we are never DUMB!
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 03:27 AM |
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if we dont get this one we will get emily or more too come.
|
yeah i think if we get missed by this one that will wont get missed by emil if she is named and im still not convinced on cindy dying out. the tropics are busy.
| PolkBB |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 03:27 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
|
Noting the most current NHC track, I assume there are no models currently projecting a west central FL track? Correct?
| Littlebit |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 03:28 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
|
Can someone please let me know the best site to find spaghetti models for current hurricanes?
Thank you, DJ
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 03:28 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
|
its just way too early for all those too meet up in ms.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 03:30 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
|
DJ...look at the left hand side of the main page. There you will see "Coordinates", click on that and then hit "Plots" and it will give you an animated loop of all the models.
Hope that helps!
Thanks Colleen
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 03:31 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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well guys and gals im out for tonight gotta work tomorrow but im gonna be busy tomorrow night for sure. i really love this board more than the local media no offense too tom terry!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 03:31 AM |
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Models on Tampa DTV
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WFLA has replaced its regular DTV radar display with what looks like the spaghetti run from Hurricane Alley. It's on channel 8-3 OTA in Tampa Bay and should be available if you have Brighthouse digital.
| VandyBrad |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 03:34 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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Mike, when you say "better" do you mean you are feeling slighty more confident in a panhandle landfall or do you mean that you feel better for them because you have slightly more confidence that it will go elsewhere and save them from the Ivan/Dennis double whammy? You previous post confused me some. Regardless of your thoughts, what evidence are you using to give your forcast more confidence? Thanks for all the help to those who contribute to this community! It really is a great place to learn and build off of a casual weather interest.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 03:37 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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Well I have been tracking Hurricanes for about 25 years,and I never write off a storm until it passes a certain point.I learned that along time ago.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 03:41 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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Quote:
Mike, when you say "better" do you mean you are feeling slighty more confident in a panhandle landfall or do you mean that you feel better for them because you have slightly more confidence that it will go elsewhere and save them from the Ivan/Dennis double whammy? You previous post confused me some. Regardless of your thoughts, what evidence are you using to give your forcast more confidence? Thanks for all the help to those who contribute to this community! It really is a great place to learn and build off of a casual weather interest.
Better as in less chance of a Peninsula landfall, it's not so great for the panhandle and points west, though. That does not mean it cannot happen, however.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 03:44 AM |
FSU Superensemble
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Is NOT the MM5
, they are two different things, aren't they, Clark??MM
| Littlebit |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 03:46 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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Colleen, thanks for the info! That's what I was looking for. Have a great evening.
DJ
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 03:55 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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I really like the new wind speed probability chart the NHC puts out. If you look at it, it shows the NHC only gives themselves an 8 percent chance of being right at the four-day prediction.
The highest chance for hurricane force winds in the US? Key West with a 10 percent chance.
Atlanta has a 7 percent chance for tropical storm force winds in day five!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 03:59 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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And check out the loop for tropical storm force winds over the next five days
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/031807.shtml?tswindloop?
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 04:01 AM |
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Evening Thoughts....
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Dennis continues on his 'whirlwind' trip across the Caribbean, with Jamaica next in his sights. Landfall very near the island should occur tomorrow, likely as a category 2 storm. Beyond that is a grazing of the Caymans, followed by a path near the Isle or Youth (or Pines, whichever you prefer) then across Cuba, likely as a cat 2-3. After the transit of Cuba, Dennis should restrengthen after it enters the SE GOM.
The modelling is flip-flopping, but we are seeing a general eastward trend in the modelling in the 00z runs, and a more westward flop in the 12z runs. It will be interesting to see if this continues in the runs tomorrow, but one thing is pretty clear, the flipping and flopping is centered almost right on top of Biloxi, MS Because of this, if I were making an exact landfall call right now, it would be near or east of Biloxi (due to a current west bias I believe in most of the modelling). Nevertheless, this puts NO ONE out of danger at this point from the Keys to Lake Charles. Modelling trends and the evolution of various features (excellently described by Clark in earlier posts) will have to be closely monitored.
| Hurricane Fredrick 1979 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 04:05 AM |
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Re: Interesting post from Storm2K
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Quote:
Thanks for the update Jason.... if Breck is "extrapolating" that Dennis will hit west of NO, as reported in his weather segment, I'm sure it has the city's attention big time.... and if nothing else, they should be getting prepared like everyone else....
The question is when will Neigan tell them to evacuate? It will take more that 72 hrs just to notify the public, they decide to leave then leave. They need to start evacuating now to be safe. They don't even open the W I-10 to make it E. I'm glad I'm not over there right now. I'll tough it out here in Mobile.
| SirCane |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 04:13 AM |
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Re: Interesting post from Storm2K
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I don't know, but I can't believe we're dealing with this right now. In early July! A major Hurricane we'll be dealing with. It hasn't even been a year since Ivan hit this area and now we already have to be prepared for the possibility of Dennis the Menace. Unbelieveable.
Thanks for all your updates here.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 04:19 AM |
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Re: Interesting post from Storm2K
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Quote:
The question is when will Neigan tell them to evacuate? It will take more that 72 hrs just to notify the public, they decide to leave then leave. They need to start evacuating now to be safe. They don't even open the W I-10 to make it E. I'm glad I'm not over there right now. I'll tough it out here in Mobile.
I was listening to a local Emergency Management official on WWL 870 AM early this morning.
He said something about a new "50 hour" rule in reference to evacuating the New Orleans area.
I'll see if I can find something on it.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 04:25 AM |
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Re: New Orleans links
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Link are from City of New Orleans.com
I will post them in the Disaster forum.
http://www.cityofno.com/portal.aspx?portal=46
http://www.cityofno.com/portal.aspx?portal=46&tabid=3
http://www.cityofno.com/portal.aspx?portal=46&tabid=18
| Droop31 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 04:45 AM |
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New GFS 00z
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Dunno if its been posted already but the newest run of the GFS for lack of a better phrase owns the Pensacola area. Interesting shift in a model which has been fairly consistent today. I suspect we'll see the waffling back and forth for the next few days. Clark or Jason, any thoughts?
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 04:50 AM |
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Re: New GFS 00z
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I really think we are in for a surprise.I think some have gotten a little cocky with the forcast track.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 05:01 AM |
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New Orleans Info
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I was listening to a local Emergency Management official on WWL 870 AM early this morning.
He said something about a new "50 hour" rule in reference to evacuating the New Orleans area.
April 13, 2005 -- According to today's FEMA National Situation Update, a new hurricane evacuation plan was demanded by Governor Kathleen Blanco after Hurricane Ivan when a traffic snarl that stretched from New Orleans to Baton Rouge lasted upward of 12 hours. The plan was put together by state police and the DOTD and includes evacuation routes for not only New Orleans and points south, but Lake Charles, Lafayette and the Houma-Thibodaux area. Under the new plan preparing for evacuations would begin at least 72 hours in advance. One of the problems during Ivan was the time required to get barriers, people and other material in place to allow lane reversal on highways.
Beginning 50 hours in advance, evacuations south of New Orleans would be ordered, public offices and schools would be closed, but traffic would remain along normal routes.
At 40 hours, evacuation south of the Mississippi River, including the West Bank of New Orleans, would be ordered.
In Phase 3, if the storm is a category 3 storm or higher, contraflow would be triggered.
Problems that slowed traffic last time ran the gamut from signs that were too hard to read, forcing drivers to slow excessively, to breakdowns. Under the new system tow trucks will be stationed along the routes and new signs will be installed. The new hurricane evacuation plan also requires a number of new ramps to be added or widened, new crossovers and other items at a cost of $7.5 million.
http://www.emforum.org/news/05041301.htm
| Droop31 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 05:01 AM |
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Re: New GFS 00z
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Who's in for a surprise? It should come as no surprise that the Central or Eastern gulf coast is in for a major hurricane this weekend.
| CategoryFive |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 05:02 AM |
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Final thought on Cindy....
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The NHC better recalcualte all their instruments as well as the ones used on the hurricane hunter aircraft. I was on Grand Isle last night and I can tell you that their were sustained hurricane force winds when she came ashore.
Don't know why the NHC was hesitant to upgrade it bu t I guarantee it was at hurricane status when it made landfall.
OK...back to Dennis.....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 05:02 AM |
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Re: New GFS 00z
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Dennis getting stronger...pressure down to 975 mb
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 05:10 AM |
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Dennis Pressure Drop
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Possibly. But the notes from recon indicate he is not 100% efficent.
Line "L". OPEN NW
M. E10/30/20
P. Eye Open SW-NE
The temperature is mighty cool in the eye. 9 C=48.2 F
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 05:15 AM |
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Re: Best Meteorologist in Tampa
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Sorry for such a late response, Steve Jervey seemed to have been the most accurate of all of them last year.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 05:20 AM |
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Re: Dennis Pressure Drop
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just took a look at the Saffir-Simpson scale. According to the scale, typical cat 2 hurricanes
range in pressure from 965 mb up to 979 mb. I think there is a good chance Dennis willl be upgraded to cat 2 at the next advisory. The storm also seems to have taken a good jog to the west lately as well.
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 05:28 AM |
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Re: Best Meteorologist in Tampa
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Models will be introducing an new, sharp, fast moving trough coming out of Alaska soon. This is the great definer. It was out of the model region and little data was entered into the plots. This is the one that really may matters from the info I received. Until so, expect a windshield wiper effect on the models.
P.S. Wasn't Arlene supposed to be further west at landfall.
P.S.S. Wasn't Cindy supposed to be hitting Houston on the 72+ Hour Forecast?
Keep this in mind folks and once again...The cone is there.
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 05:52 AM |
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Re: Dennis Looking Better
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EEP!
At that size we'll see feeder bands in Austin if Dennis is anywhere near LA...
Thanks for the visual ... that makes it easier to comprehend...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 05:59 AM |
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Re: Wishcasting or Fearcasting
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First thing first Hurricane Dennis Will be a deadly menace no doubt the look of the Hurricane now on satellite has cat4 wriitten all over it perfect out flow in all Quadrants. As for the people who belive S FL is still at risk is absurd. Even though Hurricanes are erradict it seems a dead lock it will end up in the central gulf by saturday. Their is a .0000000001% chance its goiong to make a freak move on to S. FL. I understand the panic in some areas like Punta Gorda., But other than that S. FL was unscaved by the hurricanes last year so there is no need for panic thinking that the hurricane going to make a right or go str north towards us. The people who need to be worried are the people in pensacola/ mobile area, they have a reason to panic especially after IVAN and all the forcast tracks.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 06:00 AM |
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Average NHC Atlantic Track Forecast Errors
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From the NHC pages.
Average Errors listed in nautical miles (nm.) 2000-2004
120 hours 273.8nm
96 hours 208.0nm
72 hours 166.9nm
48 hours 113.3nm
36 hours 88.0nm
24 hours 63.0nm
12 hours 36.3nm
00 hours 6.8nm
This is only to give you an idea of how narrow, or wide the "Cone of Certainty" is.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify5.shtml?
| Londovir |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 06:13 AM |
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Re: Average NHC Atlantic Track Forecast Errors
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Very interesting data on those charts...as expected, accuracy of 96-120 hour forecasts has fluctuated around the same range as that of 72 hour forecasts from 10 years ago. That's a nice testament to the improved modeling systems that have come up in the last decade.
Though, and I say this with tongue firmly planted in cheek, I noted that NHC did NOT have a good year last year with their long term forecasts (IE, 72, 96, and 120), which makes sense when you recall the "confusion" of forecasting Chartey, Ivan, and Jeanne last year.
Still, so long as you keep in mind the obvious errors, it's comforting to see how far the NHC has come in the last 10 years. We can only hope the accuracy continues to linearly (exponentially?) improve as time goes on, though we're bound to hit a wall soon in terms of what can be done with current computing power...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 06:17 AM |
Re: Wishcasting or Fearcasting
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http://kamala.cod.edu/HPC/latest.fxus10.KWNH.html
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 06:17 AM |
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jamaica and on
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dennis might dodge at the last minute like charley and ivan, but it looks like it wont miss jamaica right now. pressure has been falling ~1.5mb an hr. if it gets there in the early afternoon, that'll put it around 957mb.. with a continuous steady fall. tough day ahead for that island. if jamaica takes the storm down a notch, the forecast track will shift west.. east if it bypasses north (looking unlikely right now).
u.s. landfall intensity is tricky, since these things like to weaken before coming in. lots of the globals don't know what to do with it after a day inland, so it may end up stalling in the mid mississippi valley over to oklahoma or something and raining like hell all week. keep that scenario in mind if you're inland.
cindy is spawning some severe weather here and there and having it's center elongate.. moving too quickly to cause catastrophic rains, perhaps. the eastern foothills of the blue ridge look to get the worst of it. after cindy moves off the NE coast models show it entraining in this deep layer cold low that spawns near the canadian maritimes and drops sw towards the northeast u.s. coastal waters.. that is an interesting looking feature. it may be a summertime noreaster in store for folks up there.. going to keep an eye on how far south models are progging it since it's that time of year.
one other feature.. the wave that came off africa wed. is freakin huge. it looks like just a big pulse on the monsoon trough, and its leading edge is sweeping a huge flare of convection west along the itcz. it isn't coherent.. but something that energetic will need to be watched as it moves west. got to see how much convection persists back near the actual wave. the 'flare' it sent out may active the weak waves ahead of it, cause them to perk up a little. low to nil probability of development out there in the near term, though.
HF 0716z07july
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 06:29 AM |
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Dennis overnight
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I'd like to reiterate what Jason said: while short-term wobbles may be very important right near landfall, the difference between going north or south of Jamaica likely will not play a large role in determining the final landfall position of this storm.
That said, I think that unless the brief wobble on the latest IR frames become more of a pronounced movement, Dennis will pass south of Jamaica by a short distance on Thursday. This will put the island, however, in the northern half of the storm, featuring some of the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall amounts out of the storm. It's certainly not a pleasant scenario, but perhaps slightly better than a direct hit. The upper-level flow pattern is such that the storm should continue on a heading right around WNW for the next day to two days, possibly clipping the coast of Jamaica were it not for terrain effects that seem to take hold as it nears the island. There's still a chance of it moving over the west side of the island, but I do feel that the storm will largely pass south of Jamaica.
The eyewall is becoming better defined on satellite imagery and, barring a landfall, this could be the beginning parts of a period of rapid intensification of the storm. The upper-level conditions are favorable, including having an upper-low well to the east to enhance outflow, and water temperatures are certainly warm. Dry air is negligible now that it has passed Hispaniola and the storm is sufficiently well organized to be able to tap into the favorable conditions. Major hurricane status is not out of the realm of possibility for late Thursday, assuming current trends hold and the storm stays offshore. More likely, something around 100-105mph by late tonight will be felt along the Jamaican shore.
Still feel the NHC track out to day 5 is a good forecast at this point in time. I will be interested to see the 06z and 12z runs of the models, however, as they will be the first ones to incorporate upper-air data from the periphery of the storm. TWC had one of the guys in the plane on the phone earlier tonight, but it was a botched interview due to the fact that they still believed he was in the storm despite him saying otherwise. Nevertheless, those runs -- especially the 12z set -- should have that data incorporated within them.
I don't expect any drastic changes, unless the current strength of the ridge is being under- or overestimated. If the latter is true, the tracks could be shifted left...if the former is true, they could be shifted right. I don't think they sampled the current conditions near Florida or over the south-central US, however, so that data will be limited to the US upper-air network and satellite observations; thus, I don't expect many changes to come out of the new runs...but it will help to firm up the synoptic reasoning for whatever track is forecast.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 06:31 AM |
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Re: FSU Superensemble
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MapMaster -- correct, they are two very different entities. The MM5 is a dynamical model that actually forecasts the conditions; the Superensemble takes output from other dynamical models and applies various statistical techniques to (usually) improve upon its output.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 06:46 AM |
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Dennis
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Recon is airborne. They should have an Vortex update within two hours.
| geekicane |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 06:48 AM |
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Re: FSU Superensemble
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So for the interested layman: what contingencies/factors will either limit or promote Dennis to 3 or beyond status. Let's face it. This thing will hit the continental US, but what I'm interested in is hearing professionals and autodidacts discuss the various factors that go into intensity forecasts. The fact that intensity relates in a non-linear way to damage, loss of life etc seems just as important as divining the exact trajectory of this kind of storm.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 07:10 AM |
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Re: FSU Superensemble
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Hurricane intensity change is composed of external factors, many of which we have a handle upon, and internal factors, many of which we do not have a handle upon.
Start with the internal factors: eyewall replacement cycles (which we can see happening, but cannot predict; generally, as an eye tightens, the storm strengthens, only to weaken as it begins to replace itself), inner-core dynamics (such as vortex Rossby waves, the breakdown of the eye into the mesovortices seen with Isabel and other storms, and so on), convective hot towers and their distributions (can enhance a storm's winds & impacts locally for short periods of time, but communicate their energy on longer time scales towards the storm, both negatively and positively), the efficiency of the storm, and other such factors. We can analyze them after the fact, but don't know enough about them and their impact upon intensity change to accurately quantify them. We do know, however, that they likely play a substantial role in major hurricanes (in particular).
Then you have external factors: upper-level conditions (whether shear, temperatures aloft -- goes into maximum potential intensity, or the position of upper lows to enhance outflow/provide a means of enhancing a storm's secondary circulation...a fancy way of saying enhance the inflow and outflow and thus enhance the storm), sea surface & near-surface temperatures, interaction with land masses, dry air in the atmosphere becoming entrained into the system, gravity wave propogation, any sort of longer-term climatological factors that may influence the storm, and so on.
In general, warm ocean temperatures, little shear but a means of ventilating the storm system, little interaction with land, and no dry air (dry air is bad -- helps to increase the potential for downdrafts in the mid-levels of the atmosphere, leading to convection dying out and a cut off of the means of energizing the storm) are all favorable, with the opposite being unfavorable. Amongst the inner-core factors, a contracting eyewall is one of the better-known signs of an intensifying storm, whereas the completion of such a cycle is a sign of (usually) temporary weakening.
I think that about covers them all. It'll be interesting to see where Dennis goes from here, both track- and intensity-wise, particularly with many of the parameters for sustained intensification present within its environment. I don't have the list of the 7 rapid intensification parameters off-hand, but most of them do deal with many of the factors mentioned above, plus what the storm is already doing.
| geekicane |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 07:27 AM |
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Re: FSU Superensemble
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Thanks for the insights--although I have to admit I only understood a bit of the technical language. Perhaps I can ask a few questions about the particulars later. Let me put this a different way. In the case of storms that "blew up" suddenly such as Andrew or Charlie--before landfall--did mets figure out ex post facto what led to such events? What I'm trying to figure out is why intensity forecasts lag behind even the the tricky forecasts for landfalls.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 08:34 AM |
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RECON
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Recon found pressure down to 970mb.
No indication of an Eye. NA for 'L' and 'M'.
Center temperatures are up to 15 C=59 F
MAX flight level wind, 87kt N QUAD at 07:59:10Z
this is the flight level wind and NHC will give a surface wind in the next Advisory.
STRONG BANDING AROUND CENTER NE TO SW
This could be an eyewall replacement cycle or any number of things.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 08:44 AM |
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Re: RECON
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A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST MEASURED 87 KNOTS AT
FLIGHT LEVEL AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 970 MB. BASED ON THIS
INFORMATION THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KNOTS.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/TCDAT4.0507070839
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DENNIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
...AND DENNIS COULD BECOME A STRONG CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY THE
TIME IT REACHES JAMAICA LATER TODAY.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/TCPAT4.0507070839
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 08:49 AM |
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Re: RECON
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The 05:00 is just out:
000
WTNT44 KNHC 070839
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU JUL 07 2005
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION AND AN
EYE HAS BEEN OBSERVED INTERMITTENTLY ON IR IMAGES. THE OUTFLOW
CONTINUES TO BE WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS AND IT IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THIS IS NOT VERY COMMON
FOR CYCLONES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...DUE TO COMMON INTERACTION
WITH THE MID-OCEANIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
WEAKER THAN NORMAL. T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 4.5 AND 5.0 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST MEASURED 87 KNOTS AT
FLIGHT LEVEL AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 970 MB. BASED ON THIS
INFORMATION THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KNOTS.
DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE OCEAN IN THIS
REGION HAS A VERY HIGH HEAT CONTENT AND WITH THE PREVAILING LOW
WIND SHEAR...DENNIS COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 100 TO 105
KNOT WINDS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. THE LATEST
GFDL DOES NOT INTENSIFY DENNIS AS MUCH AS IN THE PREVIOUS
RUN BECAUSE IT KEEPS THE CIRCULATION OF THE HURRICANE OVER CUBA.
THE MOTION OF DENNIS CONTINUES TO BE CONTROLLED BY A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300/13
AND THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD...
ALLOWING THE HURRICANE TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...
BRINGING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS
AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 07/0900Z 17.0N 74.6W 80 KT
12HR VT 07/1800Z 18.1N 76.4W 85 KT
24HR VT 08/0600Z 20.0N 79.0W 100 KT
36HR VT 08/1800Z 21.6N 81.5W 105 KT
48HR VT 09/0600Z 23.5N 83.5W 105 KT
72HR VT 10/0600Z 27.5N 86.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 11/0600Z 32.0N 88.5W 70 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 12/0600Z 36.1N 90.5W 40 KT...INLAND
$$
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 08:55 AM |
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Re: RECON
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IR indicates the SW Quadrant to be very impressive. Any comments on this as to intensification?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 09:10 AM |
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Re: RECON
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probably will become more intenses
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 09:33 AM |
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Re:IR Satellite
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Quote:
IR indicates the SW Quadrant to be very impressive. Any comments on this as to intensification?
I'm not sure I see what you are refering to in the SW Quadrant. (Looking back. I see 2 round convective areas in the SW Quadrant)
What I did notice was the build up around the eye. Which wasn't as obvious at 0645Z.
At 0845Z there is what appear to be a dome of clouds over the center with an eye in the middle. A full wrap-a-round of the 'eyewall' doesn't appear complete. As the thickness of the wall-like structure is diminished from due East clockwise through SSW.
http://vesta.cira.colostate.edu/rmtc/448.JPG
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 09:51 AM |
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Cindy damage update in Atlanta
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Hey everyone, made it through the night with about 3 hours sleep here in Atlanta and the damage around here is pretty extensive. The hardest hit area is Henry Co. and the Peachtree City-Hampton area. The most damaged area is Atlanta Motor Speedway where the condo/office tower was severely damaged and as Ed Clark GM of AMS was talking about on TV earlier, damage estimates could reach $25-40 million dollars just at AMS alone. Once the sun rises they will be able to assess the damage to the condos as well as the track as well.
Rainfall totals are pretty much along the lines of 3-6 inches with Hartsfield-Jackson International recieving 5.14" in the space of about 3 hours.
Unfortunately there have been two more deaths that will be attributed to Cindy, a teenager who was wakeboarding in the flood waters in Peachtree City was swept into a culvert and is missing and presumed dead as well as a fireman in an Atlanta suburb was killed while responding to a call.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 10:06 AM |
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Recon Update
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Now reporting a closed 20nm eye.
"Eyewall ragged around the center"
Pressure down to 968mb.
For full breakdown of report see the Recon Info side bar at the top left side of this page.
That would be a 2mb drop in 1 hour and 37 minutes. Between center fix times of 08:02Z and 09:39Z.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 10:29 AM |
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Re: Recon Update
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On its current path Dennis would pass just east and North of Jamaica and strike Cuba east of Isle of Youth and south of Havana...this is a little east of the model projections. I think the motion is more north than anticipated.
As Dennis intensifies, it appears to be a Charley size storm. It could lose much of what is lagging behind it to the NE as far as coverage.
The 12Z runs will be very interesting today
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 10:41 AM |
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Re: Dennis overnight
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What a great post Clark! You really should become a professor, rather than just a researcher.... You know you can do both, right??
Took a look at radar this morning.... that thing is huge! But comparing it to the 5AM forecast plot concerns me.... If you look at the 3-day forecast from 5 AM, it seems the initial motion is more NW than what is actually occurring. I see WNW in the IR radar (no vis now, oh well). My thoughts are that the more western the movement, the more west the models may shift...
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 11:03 AM |
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Re: Dennis overnight
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Could some one please give me a working satellite link. The ones I have are showing pictures from July 4th and fifth!!
| Jax Chris |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 11:20 AM |
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Re: Dennis overnight
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Quote:
Could some one please give me a working satellite link. The ones I have are showing pictures from July 4th and fifth!!
Front page for NRL Monterey Satellite Meteorolgy: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat_products.html. Their Tropical Cyclones page is at http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html.
There are definately lots of other sources. Hope this helps a little.
Jax Chris
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 11:31 AM |
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Re: Dennis overnight
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Quote:
Could some one please give me a working satellite link. The ones I have are showing pictures from July 4th and fifth!!
You may have to reload the page. For instance, if I pull up the NHC page, I'll find info on tropical depression three, if I don't reload. I know it's what is in the cache, but it never happened before when I had dial-up...
| Unregistered User |
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| Thu Jul 07 2005 11:32 AM |
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Re: Dennis overnight
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Looks to me to be a turn to the NW occurring. Surprised to still see the Canadian model's path did not shift west (left) last nite! Maybe Ed is correct with his projection yesreday! Cheers!!
| Jax Chris |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 11:33 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Dennis in the Caribbean
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Quote:
I know if a storm comes in, like Charley did, the surge will be to the south (speaking of Charlotte/Lee County area where I live). I know we'll flood here in Cat 1 or 2 coming in. But it's frustrating to not have access to what a hurricane does when it rides up along the coast.
Not sure if this is exactly what you're looking for or not, but a quick Google finds the Southwest Florida Regional Planning Council maps page (http://www.swfrpc.org/maps.htm), which has surge maps for hurricanes entering, exiting and paralleling the coast for Sarasota, Charlotte, Lee and Collier counties in Florida.
Jax Chris
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 11:34 AM |
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Re: Dennis overnight
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Thank you .
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 11:39 AM |
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Re: Terrorism in London-Breaking News
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Horrible
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 11:43 AM |
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Re: Dennis overnight
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On a more mundane,but still serious subject. todays WVloop is giving credence to yesterday's MM5 solution.
I think the trough in the western GOM has advanced further than the other models anticipated and and the "soft spot" for the storm coming off Cuba is closer to the west coast of Florida...still off shore but not at 85w either.
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 11:55 AM |
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Re: Dennis overnight
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Lovely (sarcasm)... up to 105 now!!! This thing will be cat 3 in no time...
I also see a little NW movement in the last couple frames of the IR... but, it isn't enough for me to believe it's true motion yet. I'll keep watching...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 11:58 AM |
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A Wobble NW
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DENNIS WOBBLED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH...16 KM/HR...OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION NEAR
13 MPH...20 KM/HR...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html
Looking at the loop you can see where it looks as if it has stepped outside of his track.
| Unregistered User |
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| Thu Jul 07 2005 12:10 PM |
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Re: A Wobble NW
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The latest satellite loop indicates a true NNW wobble.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 12:15 PM |
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Re: A Wobble NW
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Also, if you notice in the latest images, Jamica will not see the eyewall of the storm, it will unexpextedly pass north of the island.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 12:18 PM |
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Re: A Wobble NW
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What does that mean in terms of the east-west modeling? There was a lot of discussion about that early on with some discrediting the theory that it would matter in the ultimate track.
| zacros |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 12:19 PM |
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Re: A Wobble NW
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Overlay the tropical forecast pts on the visible loop and you can clearly see the storm is beginning to move north of the forcast track. Is this a true turn, or just a wobble? I guess time will tell.
| Unregistered User |
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| Thu Jul 07 2005 12:20 PM |
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Re: A Wobble NW
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Looks like the Bermuda High is weaker than predicted.....I live in NO, and a CAT4 hurricane will be a REAL DISASTER, because of our flooding problems
| zacros |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 12:23 PM |
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Re: A Wobble NW
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I believe a Cat 4 hurrican in any area would be a real disaster. I live in Charleston and have seen what a Cat 4 can do. I pray for anyone in the path of a major storm.
How far out do hurricane force winds extend on this storm?
| Lysis |
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| Thu Jul 07 2005 12:24 PM |
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Re: A Wobble NW
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25 miles as of last update...
| Unregistered User |
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| Thu Jul 07 2005 12:26 PM |
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Re: A Wobble NW
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There may be some good in this. If the current movement continues, then the eye of the storm will pass over more rugged terrain in central Cuba, as compared to the flat terrain in western Cuba. That could possibly weaken the storm.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 12:28 PM |
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Re: A Wobble NW
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I'm sure that nothing will change track wise, unless this wobble become more consistant. I was just listening to FOX News on the radio, they are telling Central Florida that they are in the clear, with nothing to worry about.
My thought is that this statement is a little premature. In my 20 years of living in Florida, the only thing you can count on when it comes to Hurricanes is....
DON'T! It's not over untill its on shore and even then it's NOT necessarily over.
Didn't Ivan do a stroll around the perverbal block.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 12:35 PM |
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Re: A Wobble NW
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right, it is just a wobble. the only thing that has really changed is that dennis is feeling the effects of mountainous island terrain.. something it previously hadn't. this may be the start of one of those type of track jerks charley and ivan made around jamaica. neither of those did much to alter the future track of either storm. one thing that has changed overnight is that guidance has shifted back to the right side.. but it's pretty much staying within the envelope that has existed all along. the major model members are staying close, keeping the track over western cuba and along a 300 mile stretch of coast centered near mobile. the storm may be having its organization process staggered this morning as well, since the eyespot overnight has blinked out and the convective signature on IR is less defined. it's probably about as intense as the nhc is calling it.. concur that it may get to a low-end 3 as it grazes or passes over jamaica.
the number of model members that stalls dennis over the mid-mississippi valley mid-late next week also troubles me. if dennis slows down and meanders once onshore it will present a tremendous flood threat.
model output and african wave appearances make me think another tropical cyclone will try to organize east of the islands over the next week, also. attention will be glued to dennis regardless.
HF 1335z07july
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 12:37 PM |
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Re: A Wobble NW
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Quote:
I'm sure that nothing will change track wise, unless this wobble become more consistant. I was just listening to FOX News on the radio, they are telling Central Florida that they are in the clear, with nothing to worry about.
My thought is that this statement is a little premature. In my 20 years of living in Florida, the only thing you can count on when it comes to Hurricanes is....
DON'T! It's not over untill its on shore and even then it's NOT necessarily over.
Didn't Ivan do a stroll around the perverbal block.
As usual the media can't be trusted. I took a galnce at this mornings models..there HAS definitely been a shift to the right (east). The 06Z GFS had NO as ground zero yesterday but now has Pannma City FL..looks like a shift east of about 200 miles. The 00Z canadian and GFDL are both very close to the west coast of Florida, with the CMC model actually taking the storm inland along the peninsula..If current trends continue, I think a lot of people will be surprised on the west coast of FL
Let's be a little nicer towards the news media next time...we aren't ALL bad....JK
| Kruz |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 12:53 PM |
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Re: A Wobble NW
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[I'm on the west coast and you get bet I am already starting to batten down the hatches!! Started yesterday an will work towards an ultimate goal of being seure by Saturday. I just don't trust anything once it gets into the Gulf.
| Bev |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 12:57 PM |
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Re: FSU Superensemble
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I have my own non-technical theory over the lag in intensity forecasting. Avoiding widespread panic is a major factor in determining intensity forecast. I believe raw data is virtually ignored at times in favor of "keeping the peace."
While they urge calm, evacuation, etc. They don't necessarily like to advise us that a cat 2 is likely to become a cat 4 within a couple of hours. I don't believe this affects the trajectory forecast, but do believe in greatly impacts the official intensity forecasts.
This is strictly my opinion after having watched the news media and compared it to the actual raw data on hurricanes since 1992. They often don't match up.
-Bev
Quote:
<snip>... In the case of storms that "blew up" suddenly such as Andrew or Charlie--before landfall--did mets figure out ex post facto what led to such events? What I'm trying to figure out is why intensity forecasts lag behind even the the tricky forecasts for landfalls.
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 12:58 PM |
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Re: A Wobble NW
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Its best to getter done. Better safe than sorry the old addage goes...Weatherchef
| zacros |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 12:59 PM |
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Re: A Wobble NW
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Let's be a little nicer towards the news media next time...we aren't ALL bad....JK
We don't blame you, we just blame those "Chamber of Commerce" forcasts!
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 12:59 PM |
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High & ridge effect
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I believe there was mention yesterday that the meso models were doing a much better job of picking up the fact that the high would weaken more & the ridge would be further south...which would push Dennis further east...how far...who knows?!
CMC & MM5 really haven't strayed by too much thruout their runs.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 01:03 PM |
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Re: FSU Superensemble
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I dont understand why people keep saying that this NW path is unexpected.... it wobbled alittle west yesterday and now NW. Overall show me a global model that showed Dennis moving south or over jamaica? Its on track. There will be wobbles and the exact path isnt as smooth as the models show.
Now where it ends up is another question. My landfall forecast will be around 1pm eastern and is still looking at western florida,, Tampa? Panama City Beach? will pin it down later.
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 01:04 PM |
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Re: FSU Superensemble
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CMC & MM5 really haven't strayed by too much thruout their runs.
and neither has the gfs... which tracks to the west. This leads us to a very uneasy conclusion: We don't know what will happen.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 01:09 PM |
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Re: FSU Superensemble
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I agree. Many variables, such as climatology, speed,water surface temperature, sheering (or lack thereof) troughs, and ridges all are variables that computer models try to measure and extrapolate based on all current known facts. I have more respect for the NHC to interpret these models and have no reason to doubt their forecasted path-however, with that said- a hurricane can still surprise us where it will ultimately make landfall.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 01:11 PM |
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Eye
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html
Is that the eye just now crossing 75W ??
| Unregistered User |
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| Thu Jul 07 2005 01:13 PM |
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Eye on Radar
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Eye now visible on Gitmo Radar. Currently shooting the gap between Haiti and Jamaica moving WNW...maybe a wobble west recently.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 01:23 PM |
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Re: Eye on Radar
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I wonder what the emergency managment folks in Monroe County Florida (Keys) are doing today? I slight move to the East of track will bring dangerous conditins over the Key West area.
| Dougyd |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 01:29 PM |
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Re: FSU Superensemble
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All of the recently updated models have shifted to the east - getting close to the peninsula.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 01:29 PM |
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Dennis
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I still do not know what he will do,same as yesterday.Maybe late tonight or Friday will make it clearer.He looks good this morning,would not want to be in the path of this one.
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 01:31 PM |
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Keys
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Don't know about their EOC but some of their hospitalty establishments are still encouraging people to come...neighbor lft this a.m. for Big Pine...manager said to come...no worries?...no refunds this close...crazy if you ask me...that place is a nightmare to evac...been there, done that.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 01:36 PM |
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Re: Keys
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I agree, the Keys are a bear to evacuate. It's always a tough call for the Emergency Management folks.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 01:37 PM |
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Re: FSU Superensemble
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Quote:
CMC & MM5 really haven't strayed by too much thruout their runs.
and neither has the gfs... which tracks to the west. This leads us to a very uneasy conclusion: We don't know what will happen.
Actually the 06Z GFS HAS SHIFTED to the EAST from yesterday...almost 150 miles..24 hours ago both the GFS and UKMET had Dennis going into Mobile-NO area..both taking the storm toward the western end of Cuba & up the central Gulf..today, the GFS is trending east as well as NOGAPs with the UKMET the odd west model..this is very disturbing for me on the west coast (Hernando Bch) of FL
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 01:37 PM |
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Re: Keys
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It did just take it's biggest jog north,but I do know about jogs.The next two updates will be very important,will it continue this northern movement?????
| Katie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 01:44 PM |
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Re: Best Meteorologist in Tampa
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Southern, I know you asked yesterday but News Channel 8 Steve Jerve (spelling) is the most reliable in my book. I watched him during Charlie until my power went out and he was blow by blow city by city and actually at times, street by street when it came down to bad weather, winds, hail, funnel clouds, etc. I trust them and they are very professional.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 01:46 PM |
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Re: Keys
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Quote:
I agree, the Keys are a bear to evacuate. It's always a tough call for the Emergency Management folks.
Well, if you believe the 00Z run of the GFDL, the lower keys will experience CAT 3 winds by 8 PM Friday EDT. I think very soon, a Hurricane Watch will be needed for the lower and middle keys with evacuation orders following soon thereafter
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 01:56 PM |
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models
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models I see are still centered on a Northern Gulf hit. UKMET still goes west to LA, GFDL goes east to PCB area and the GFS is right up the middle generally (a little east) where the official track is now. I would look for a slight move east of the track at 11AM, but not very far.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:12 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Dennis in the Caribbean
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Truthfully, the NHC is doing pretty well with the track, and it should continue to be a good one. I don't think it will vary drastically from what the forecast track is now, 11AM should be interesting, though, probably a tad east at the longest ranges. The satellite link I've got on the main page article shows it's a bit north of the forecasted track, though. Which is why I think 11AM will be interesting.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:13 PM |
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Re: A Wobble NW
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Not to contradict HankFrank, who is more knowledable than I, but I disagree this is a correction around Jamaica...something else is happening
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:16 PM |
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Re: A Wobble NW
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Like what?
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:16 PM |
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Re: A Wobble NW
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Doug,
Please go on,I would be interested in what you think maybe happening.I think I may know,But I am holding back right now.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:17 PM |
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Re: models
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web page
ya all take a look at this. it just came out
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:17 PM |
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Re: A Wobble NW
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Obviously a wobble back west the last few hours. Agree with Mike. NHC doing a great job thusfar and have no reason to disagree with their track. Along with Mike, I do expect a small shift east at 11AM, but they could keep the track the same and wait for consistency in the models.
| Katie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:18 PM |
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Re: A Wobble NW
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Goodness, looks like some of us need some coffee this morning.
I am feeling better about this storm as far as it not heading in our direction. Even though, I still have that "not-so-good" feeling in my tummy. I think because I lived in Pensacola, my heart is still there.
Those of you along the Southern Gulf States, you guys need a break. A nice long break. I sure wish there was something I could do, but know that a gal in Winter Haven is hoping for a miracle for you guys.
The I-10 bridge connecting Santa Rosa and Escambia County is still out?? I am coming that way in a month or so for a baby shower and looks like I may need to find out how to get to P'cola by a different road. Ouch.
Hang in there guys if you get Dennis.
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:20 PM |
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Re: models
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That's the MM5, not the FSU superensemble and it has been out for quite a while. Has had an east bias all along.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:22 PM |
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Re: models
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By these new models, I would say that the west coast of Florida isn't totally out of the woods yet.
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:23 PM |
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Re: A Wobble NW
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Quote:
I am coming that way in a month or so for a baby shower and looks like I may need to find out how to get to P'cola by a different road. Ouch.
Given our recent craziness maybe you should say you are *planning* on going out there
I really hate this hurry up and wait that we have to do but I think I still hate the term "hunker down" even more. I pray for the safety of everyone in it's path. We are fortunate we can evacuate to another state. Jamaicans can't go anywhere.
Once again, for the first of many times this season, thanx to all who make this forum what it is.
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:24 PM |
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Re: models
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Man, I hope that track is way off! I mean the peninsula of Fla first would get hammered and then Atlanta (sigh).
What we need is for the Georgia House and State Senate as well as Congress just to have their sessions now at Key West, and the hot air alone could send Dennis out into the Atlantic to be a fish spinner......
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:26 PM |
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Re: A Wobble NW
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From 8AM yesterday to 8AM today Dennis moved 2.3N and 4.1W. Much more west than north. However, from 5AM-8AM he's moved just a bit more north than west(.5N/.3W). Checking the loops it seems that instead of a deliberate movement to the north it was more of a stairstep motion.
I'm sure the models will continue to "move" throughout the day. Like was said before, Thursday into Friday will make the picture a little clearer, but that doesn't mean any type of certain landfall point will be nailed down. Just that some will have a higher probability than others.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:26 PM |
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Re: models
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Hm.. I think I'm going to fill up my five gallon gas tanks for my generator.. just in case.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:26 PM |
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Re: FSU Superensemble
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With the strong blowups, like you mention with either Andrew or Charley (another case is Opal in 1995), usually the cause is determined, though maybe not for several years. It may also be a multitude of causes, all interrelated, leading to deep intensification. With Andrew and Charley, both small storms, they reacted very violently to favorable external forcing, spinning up in a rapid period of time. The exact causes, however, still remains up for debate with Charley. Andrew is a bit more straightforward, with very favorable atmospheric conditions (internal factors not withstanding), but more effort has been focused on determining its actual intensity -- cat 4 or 5 -- versus on researching the storm itself.
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:27 PM |
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Re: models
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What we need is for the Georgia House and State Senate as well as Congress just to have their sessions now at Key West, and the hot air alone could send Dennis out into the Atlantic to be a fish spinner......
...ok, that made me laugh.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:30 PM |
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Re: A Wobble NW
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GuppieGrouper -- for the U.S., that is correct, as many have been stating all along. But, for Jamaica, wobbles are critically important as the storm nears the island. It kept up that NW wobble that I mentioned from last night and looks like it might pass just north of the island; all it took for that is a small little jog north, just like Charley's jog east last year.
They become important if they persist for a long period of time or if they occur right before landfall. Otherwise, usually they just average out.
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:33 PM |
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Clark?????
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Are you sticking to a PCB or east hit....What about the FSU Super has it's track changed?
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:35 PM |
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Re: models
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It's only a bias if it doesn't verify and the storm comes in further west!
It has been on the right side of the guidance, only matched by the Canadian model, but for three straight runs of both models now, they have been consistant to within ~25 miles on a track, the Canadian up the west coast and the FSUMM5 to the St. George Island area. We included the bogus vortex in the model for Dennis last night to improve its initial representation; it brought it to ~950mb at landfall just southwest of Tallahassee, something that would prove to be the ultimate disaster scenario for this region.
I will try to update on the current status of the storm in a couple of hours; all of my satellite imagery is either old (NASA's servers must be down) or not loading (NHC is probably getting slammed), so I'm not really in a position to comment. Let's see where the rest of the 6z and all of the 12z models go with this thing...we might be able to narrow something down a bit further if trends continue.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:38 PM |
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Re: Clark?????
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Can't really comment on the FSU Superensemble; generally the best representation of it is given by the NHC official track, so if you are interested in that, watch the official track and 6hrly discussions for anything there.
Our MM5 is sticking to its guns, shifting ever-so-slightly east in this morning's run. I'm still in line with the general NHC thinking on this storm -- the right side of the model guidance is more likely to see this storm than anything else. I haven't narrowed down the overall cone, however, to anything narrower than central Louisiana to Tamp; that may change later today, including including more of the west Florida coast of the guidance still indicates and the observations still suggest a more easterly track.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:39 PM |
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Re: models
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11 a.m Forcast Advisory, Hurricane watchs up for the Florida Keys and Florida bay. Winds at 90kts.
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:40 PM |
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wobble schmoble...
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When I first started watching the hurricanes....wobbles would get me excited...now, with experience, I have found they all tend to do that...I guess a good analogy is a sailboat...tacking left, then right....then left...
at any rate, usually when a hurricane is changing it's general path...a slowdown of some magnitude occurs.
look at the overall path..as indicated by the NHC...and and don't get excited about every thirty minute frame showing the eye...
it's gonna be a bad one
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:41 PM |
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Re: models
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And tropical storm watches out for the entire southern peninsula.
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:42 PM |
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Re: models
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Hurricane force winds now extend outward up to 45 miles, with tropical storm force winds 125 miles out. I am a bit concerned with some of these massive outer rainbands producing severe weather over the peninsula.
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:43 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: models
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I try , I try....
On a more serious note, check out this photo from 11Alive.com here in Atlanta from the start/finish line at Atlanta Motor Speedway from this morning.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:47 PM |
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Re: models
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tropical storm force winds extend outward up tp 140 miles from the center
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:49 PM |
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Re: models
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Can you guys give us a link to the 11 am discussion?
| Southern4sure |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:49 PM |
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Re: A Wobble NW
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Quote:
Goodness, looks like some of us need some coffee this morning.
I am feeling better about this storm as far as it not heading in our direction. Even though, I still have that "not-so-good" feeling in my tummy. I think because I lived in Pensacola, my heart is still there.
Those of you along the Southern Gulf States, you guys need a break. A nice long break. I sure wish there was something I could do, but know that a gal in Winter Haven is hoping for a miracle for you guys.
The I-10 bridge connecting Santa Rosa and Escambia County is still out?? I am coming that way in a month or so for a baby shower and looks like I may need to find out how to get to P'cola by a different road. Ouch.
Hang in there guys if you get Dennis.
Going west the bridge is fine but when you go east expect traffic backup because I-10 goes to 1 lane as you get close to the bay. It is about an hour delay in traffic moving roughly about 15 mph. I have travelled back to Mobile 7 tmes since Jan 05 and each time I cant stand going across that bridge. It is scary to me.
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:50 PM |
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11AM
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Track did shift slightly east. Still has landfall around Pensacola....again......Little surprised at the initial motion given the west jog recently, but I will defer to the experts. I am sticking to my guns for a Destin Landfall.. Also, I believe the landfall may have been move up a bit from previous projections.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:52 PM |
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Re: A Wobble NW
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/071431.shtml
11 a.m. forcast advisory
| Katie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:55 PM |
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I-10
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Thanks Southern
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:55 PM |
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Re: A Wobble NW
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well the past couple days the percentage of tampa being hit has increased steadily....first it was 5 , 7, 10 and now we are at a total of 18....i think im gonna start getting ready....
| Lysis |
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| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:56 PM |
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Re: A Wobble NW
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Well, that is because the cyclone is tracking closer to you.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:57 PM |
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Re: models
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Quote:
And tropical storm watches out for the entire southern peninsula.
From the Miami NWS office:
HOWEVER...SOME
HEADLINES WILL BE FORTHCOMING AS TPC HAS INDICATED THEY WILL BE
POSTING A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR OUR SOUTHERN MOST ZONES
(MIAMI-DADE...MAINLANLD MONROE...AND W COLLIER COUNTIES) AND THIS
WILL BE DONE ON THE LATE MORNING UPDATE. WILL WAIT UNTIL THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST POSTS BEFORE UPDATING.
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...TROPICAL STORM WATCH E MIAMI-DADE......MAINLAND MONROE...AND
COASTAL COLLIER COUNTIES.
AM...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF GOLDEN BEACH
INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY.
GM...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALL ZONES.
looks like Hurricane Watch soon for the lower & middle keys also
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:57 PM |
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Re: A Wobble NW
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Hope this isn't the hurricane Tampa didn't get since Charley turned east early.
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:59 PM |
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Re: A Wobble NW
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i couldnt agree with you more....i had a really strange dream last night...and thanks to being part of this site my family and i were safe....i have that bad feeling that its gonna take a turn...dont ask me why but i feel sick to my stomach that it is....
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 03:00 PM |
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Re: A Wobble NW
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Premonitions, eh?
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 03:00 PM |
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Re: models
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UKMET seems to be the outlier with a further west landfall...the others are too close not to notice...interesting to see future runs.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 03:02 PM |
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Re: A Wobble NW
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I think it might too, its that gut feeling, but we'll see, there's no use in worrying, it'll get us nowhere.
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 03:03 PM |
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still a large window for error
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cut and pasted from NHC....we all have to assume it's heading our way...cause the fact remains...it's too far away...everyone keeps thinking the next advisory...and they'll get a handle on it.....I am hearing it is changing easterly a bit...
if this trend were to continue....it might easily track towards Tampa....just have to wait and see...but usually...it's down the middle somwhat....if it hits Pensacola, or Panama City...Mobile will suffer little, if any....however, any jog, slowdown..etc...can change things quickly....
this is a great site, learning a lot....
now, from the NHC discussion:
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 03:04 PM |
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Re: A Wobble NW
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Quote:
well the past couple days the percentage of tampa being hit has increased steadily....first it was 5 , 7, 10 and now we are at a total of 18....i think im gonna start getting ready....
The strike probability you're referring to is actually the chance that the center will pass within 65 nautical miles(74 statute miles) of that location. Currently hurricane force winds extend 45mi from the center and t.s. force winds 140mi. The numbers will increase as time progresses, until the storm has passed the location, because the storm is getting closer. Unless the track shifts dramatically one way or another.
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 03:06 PM |
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Re: A Wobble NW
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oh ok thank you agent....i was under the imperession that was probability of being hit...thanks for clarifying...
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 03:08 PM |
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Re: A Wobble NW
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Quote:Miami is now up to 18.
well the past couple days the percentage of tampa being hit has increased steadily....first it was 5 , 7, 10 and now we are at a total of 18....i think im gonna start getting ready....
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 03:13 PM |
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Re: A Wobble NW
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I did not answer the question I raised earlier about something else happening an hour ago because I am at work and actually needed to see more views before committing...while the motion to the wnw seems to have resumed a slight warming in cloud temps, lessening of convection has recently persisted on the N and East side.
could be interaction of the two large land masses it is traversing as we speak.
| stormchazer |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 03:15 PM |
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Re: models
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I still think we are looking for a Alabama/MS landfall, but it does make you wonder if this is payback for last year and Ivan. The NHC was originally saying it was coming up the West Coast of FL but it kept going west. Do we have a flip episode here?
Naaaww! Look out AL/MS/FL borders!!!!!
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 03:19 PM |
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Re: models
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In Pensacola we feel like the car rear view mirror. The models keep going from our east, to our west, to our east, etc. I just wish we could get out of the center.
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 03:26 PM |
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new thread
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new thread is up.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 03:31 PM |
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Re: A Wobble NW
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Well, people here in Pensacola are really going nuts. If this thing hits us, it will just be a remake of Ivan. People here still have tarps on their roofs in some places. It will be a disaster if it comes close to us in Pensacola.
| WeatherNLU |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 04:27 PM |
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Re: A Wobble NW
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It's awfully hard for a hurricane of Dennis' size to make a west Florida impact coming from the Western Caribbean and the SE GOM. Charley did it, but it's rather uncommon. I just don't see it happening, especially with the current pattern. I think the area that needs to be very concerned is from Grand Isle, LA to Pensacola, FL. I am not saying that everyone else should let down their guard, this is just my opinion on the developing situation. Everyone has to stop looking at the short term motions (i.e a 3 hour sample) and look at a running 24 hours minimum. Small jogs to the west and north are common and are going to continue to occur. There is no need to freak out over each and every one.
I can tell you that I am deeply troubled about the possibility of a New Orleans impact and I am already beginning to make plans. The amazing thing is that hotels are already sold out across the region.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 05:45 PM |
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Re: A Wobble NW
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Gas stations are running out of fuel and the ones remaining are jacking up the prices. People are going nuts in Pensacola.