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looks like Jamaica is about to be hammered

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once it gets to 100kts (major status) it should be interesting to see how it acts.
( It really interested in CERC in hurricanes) and how the effct strenght.

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The way I visualize things, if the storm is large and major, it's going to tend to go straight. there will be wobbles, but it usually sticks to that path until something really starts to steer it. Once it hits Cuba... weakens a bit... I think that's when you'll see the potential for a turn. We shall see...

And to think, I'm heading to Atlanta in a few hours, and I'm supposed to drive back sunday day/evening.

Guess I'll be watching to see if I'm even going to be allowed back!


-Mark

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I assume on the second map the location for 121 MPH winds is 8 AM Saturday??

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When is the next recon ETA at the storm?

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(/me playing Mr. Links today...) NOAA makes the Plan of the Day (and plan of tomorrow) available through http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml. The current plan is:
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000
NOUS42 KNHC 061700
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0100 PM EDT WED 06 JULY 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z JULY 2005
         TCPOD NUMBER.....05-040

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. TROPICAL STORM DENNIS
       FLIGHT ONE                    FLIGHT TWO
       A. 07/1800,08/0000Z           A. O8/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 0404A DENNIS         B. NOAA9 0504A DENNIS
       C. 07/1430Z                   C. 07/1800Z
       D. 19.0N 77.4W                D. NA
       E. 07/1700Z - 08/0030Z        E. NA
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. 41,000-45,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE                  FLIGHT FOUR
       A. 08/0000Z                   A. 08/0600Z
       B. AFXXX 0604A DENNIS         B. NOAA2 0704A DENNIS
       C. 07/1800Z                   C. 08/0430Z
       D. NA                         D. 20.4N 79.8W
       E. NA                         E. 08/0530Z - 08/0900Z
       F. 24,000 T0 30,000 FT        F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT FIVE
       A. 08/1200,1800Z
       B. AFXXX 0804A DENNIS
       C. 08/0800Z
       D. 21.1N 80.9W
       E. 08/1100Z TO 08/1830Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES. A G-IV
       FLIGHT FOR 09/0000Z.

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So it looks like the next recon fix is by flight 1, and is at 1800Z (line A), or 2 p.m. EDT. The plane will be on site at 1700Z (1 p.m. EDT) and stay there until 08/0030Z (8:30 p.m. today EDT, line E). Unless I'm reading this totally wrong

Edited to put in and discuss today's plan instead of tomorrow's

Jax Chris

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Full update coming on the met. blogs on the front page, but here are the highlights:

* Dennis' northwesterly jog will spare the island of Jamaica from the worst, but they will still be dealing with hurricane-force winds for some time. Areas on the north side of the island will be especially prone to flooding due to the higher terrain & flow up the mountains towards the south.

* The eye is becoming better defined in satellite imagery; Dennis may be peaking near major hurricane intensity before land interactions begin to slow it down somewhat. Recon is on its way and a fix is due for the next hour or two.

* Models are trending further and further east with time, coming into line with the FSUMM5 but still a bit west of the Canadian model. The upper-air pattern is becoming a bit better defined and the data input to the models from the surveillance plane has had a noticeable impact on the projected path of the storm.

More on track & intensity forecast and synoptic reasoning within the next half-hour.

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Accuweather is still sticking to its guns and saying Mississippi.

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Channel 10 out of tampa just showed gulf temps at 91 F.

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if the CMC shifted west at 12Z as the others shifted east. That would be par for the course.

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Channel 10 out of tampa just showed gulf temps at 91 F.

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Need to look at the offshore bouy data.. No. 42036 100 miles west of Bayport FL has 83 deg Gulf Temps

Go to:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/Florida.shtml

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Actually,Skeetobite, if I'm reading things right from your first map over Cuba, then on the second map, isnt the 8 am Friday near South Fl supposed to read Sat, thus the other one Sun? Either way, I love your maps despite the fact that you keep going over either my house in Kissimmee or my house in FWB. I sure wish you stop that!

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WTSP must get there temps from shallow waters.

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Nah, they have a cup of water sitting outside of their studio. The put a thermometer in it once a day

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which is???

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WTSP must get there temps from shallow waters.

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It may be true that they get their temps from the shallower waters. Dick Fletcher said last night that in the 20+ years he's been here, he's NEVER seen the Gulf temperature at 91 degrees.

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This is not a wishcast.I am going out on a limb here,But I am predicting a South Florida derect hit.I will spare you all the details why,for one thing I hate typing.The high IS moving east and Dennis went from a wnw track to a nw track.This eastern track will continue,and you will continue to see the models shift everything right.My biggest fear is all the news stories about the Gulf will catch many in South Florida by surprise.So you can laugh,curse or slap me silly,but I do predict a South Florida hit.

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Wow!!!!!! Thats really going out on the limb, but not realistic I`m afraid....Weatherchef

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BayNews9 ALSO has the Gulf temps at 89-90 degrees. I would assume that if I checked the other news stations, they would be in line with those numbers. When I was in Clearwater in June, it was 86.
Maybe they are taking them closer to the coast; I don't know. I seriously do not think they are making it up for visitors, but I don't feel like squabbling over it, either.

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Wow!!!!!! Thats really going out on the limb, but not realistic I`m afraid....Weatherchef

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Just 5 mph short of a cat 3. Seems to be moving more NW than WNW - that would make it more of a FL panhandle event.

Hope we are all wrong!!

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I have to say I am becoming more confident in my predition.

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I have to say I am becoming more confident in my predition.

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I'm sorry, but since you're posting frequently I thought I'd have to point this out.

"If Dennis makes landfall more to the east on Cuba,than my thoughts will be panning out"

You're more confident in your prediction because the storm is passing by a landmark (they're using a SE Cuba landmark, because this evening on its NW journey, it's passing (to the south) of SE Cuba)? It's still destined to make its crossing of Cuba well to the west of anything remotely considered "more to the east on Cuba".

So how did what you quoted support your off-on-a-limb prediction of a South Florida hit again?

Just curious, because it seems to me that rather than point to anything substantial (like weather patterns and/or historical data), you're just pulling a fearcast out of your nether regions. Since you haven't explained your theory ("I will spare you all the details why,for one thing I hate typing."), you just seem to be enjoying the "sound" of your own voice, and grasping at straws.

There are professionals here and this is a great resource. Rather than repeating yourself every 15 minutes about how much more right you are about your South Florida hit, please consider normal conversation and let the storm prove you right or wrong.

If I'm off base, I apologize, but reading a new post from you every 15 minutes about how it's definitely looking more like a South Florida hit is getting old.

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Tampa, I believe, if wrong please correct me, is 28.5 N and 83.0 W or thereabouts.

And by the way, we just a downpour here in Largo, just west of Tampa. So much for that Bermuda High..

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That the high off the east coast of FL would move farther east and allow Dennis to move farther east,thus putting south Florida in more danger.

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You may have missed this, so I decided to post it for you so you could see he is not fearcasting or anything else. He's been saying this for the last two days.

Instead of all of this quarreling over who said what when and why people think they are wrong or right, could we please, for the sake of ALL of us following a serious situation here that's going to affect SOMEONE SOMEWHERE, try to focus on what the storm is ACTUALLY doing?
I understand tempers are short and nerves are frayed all over the GOM, but let's remember that we are all here for a common cause: to help each other learn and understand; not to demean and embarrass.
Thank you!

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What index was that again folks, the "Pucker Index"?

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A more-appropriate inappropriate phrase you'll never find

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Just hit the next button if you don't like a particular post, and remember in your personal settings (top of each page can get you there), you can set an ignore list.

Now, back to the F.U.D. (fear, uncertainity and destruction)...gosh, that sounds like Microsoft, not the NHC or mets

Richard

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Wasn't Joe Bastardi the one who maintained that Frances and Jeanne were going to curve up to hit the Carolinas?

I don't like this at all. Tallahassee hasn't seen a storm like this in...what, 20 years?

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Pressure is dropping at Santiago De Cuba, Oriente, Cuba
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MUCU.html

Looking at the loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html

Looks like Dennis may try to come ashore abit West Santiago.

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Tampa, I believe, if wrong please correct me, is 28.5 N and 83.0 W or thereabouts.

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Thank you for those!

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Pressure is dropping at Santiago De Cuba, Oriente, Cuba
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MUCU.html

Looking at the loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html

Looks like Dennis may try to come ashore abit West Santiago.

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Just when you think that there is a clear tread the models try to keep it interesting.
The new 12Z MM% from FSU has the storm farther to the west as it is passing Tampa see http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/DENNIS.track.png
Than the 00Z run http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/archive/2005070700/DENNIS.track.png

In the 00Z run the path does not go west of 85 degrees the new one it does.

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Are you jumping on my bandwagon????lol just kidding.I got many pm's today pointing out that yesterday some were razing me about the more eastern turn,and that today that seems to be happening..So I am cool.Thanks to all the pm's.Let's keep are heads straight and just be prepared.

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Tampa, I believe, if wrong please correct me, is 28.5 N and 83.0 W or thereabouts.

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Thank you for those!

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PM me if you'd like a set for your city.

Key West: 24.57 N, 81.68 W

Miami: 25.8 N 80.23W

Ft. Lauderdale 26 11 N 80.18W

WPB 26.75 N 80.05W

Naples 26.15 N 81.80W

Punta Gorda 26.94 N 82.05 W

Sarasota 27.30 N 82.52 W

Lakeland 28 09 N 81 95 W

Tampa 27.95 N 82.49 W

Westernmost Pinellas County 27.88 N 82.87 W

Cedar Key 29.15 N 83.03 W

Central Coast of Appalachee Bay 30.1 N 84.00 W

Tallahassee 30.47 N 84.28 W

Panama City 30.17 N 35.67 W

Pensacola 30.45 N 87.21 W

Mobile 30.68 N 88.05 W

Biloxi 30.4 N 88.88 W

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Upon request (PM not working properly )

Land O Lakes 28.24 N 82.46 W

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Everybody who wants coordinates for a specific city/town/etc., here's another link (I got a million of them; I'm connected to the web ). Go to HomeTownLocator at http://www.hometownlocator.com/, put the city and state in the top two boxes, and hit the CitySearch button. You might get a couple of possibilities to chose from (for instance, Jacksonville Florida will give you 4), so if you do chose one. The latitude and longitue will be the last line in a green-dashed box just a little way down the page. If the longitude is negative (and it will be for all US locations...) then it indicates degrees west, so -81.39 is 81.39 W.

Hope this lets everybody get what they need without swamping a few people looking these up for everybody...

Jax Chris

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Although modest, the pressures along the East Coast of FL (Ormond Beach) have been dropping slightly this afternoon. Link below will provide information from our site. The rain guage is not functioning properly and the entire system is scheduled to be upgraded on Tuesday...

Michael

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has anyone heard anything on the tampa bay areas news about warnings watches and stuff?...

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Any news on the space shuttle being moved? I know that would be a good indicator if the east coast of Florida were to get any descent wind effects. Does any one know the minimum wind speed needed in that area to move the shuttle?

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WEST COAST OF FL COULD SEE WINDS OF 55+ MPH IN GUSTS ALREADY FORECASTED TO HIT ST. PETERSBURG AND ALL ALONG THE WEST COAST!!! Close to the intensity of H. Jeanne when it crossed into Hillsborough last year...but less intense by about 18 mph (Jeanne had gusts to 78 mph in Pinellas County, this forecast is for 60):

That was right near my house, highest gusts were at Anderson Park in Tarpon less than 2 miles from home... Hope this one will not be as bad, I have grown fond of my power....
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.ph...9&map.y=156

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Will they move Discovery back indoors? I can't remember last year but it seems like they left which ever shuttle it was out there during one of the storms that passed by.

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thank you so much but we are ready to evacuate if necessary....we are in an evacuation zone automatically...so no worries on boarding up....just waiting for the go ahead...and we are there....thank you all so much for helping me understand all these things that are possible and so forth...

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As much as the models have waved back and forth, their average position has remained relatively stable. I think the NHC forecast has been 'wiggleing' a little bit (so it looks like they're doing something <grin>), but again their forecast has been that this storm will be well offshore almost since the first day. What has changed more is the INTENSITY and SIZE of this storm. A small Charley sized storm probably wouldn't affect you at all at that distance, but this is a much larger storm so the edges got closer to you. The strongest winds will be from the S-SW in your area (don't park on the NORTH side of a large tree I feel that you won't have to evacuate only that you should include those plans as a possibility, albeit not a great possibility.

Having said that, we are *still* 2+ days from its closest approach in your area and there is time for the steering to change and drive the storm closer. It is also possible that it could be pushed a bit further away. In either event, worry and fear will NOT help you or anyone else. Planning and preparation will reduce the risk of injury so if you've done that, it is out of our hands and worry won't change the outcome.

I'm only a few miles further than you from the storm and we are in the 50% chance of TS winds. So, I expect breezy condition, perhaps some unneeded rain and hopefully NO tornados. Actually, I 'fear' the tornados far more than Dennis but tornados can occur even in a summer thunderstorm, so again, watch, prepare and relax!

Richard

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OK People, do not freak out. Bush always claims a State of Emergency before an impending hurricane hits. Right now the hurricane is aiming near the panhandle (thats florida too the last I checked). So do not freak out... Its protocol. It happens every hurricane..

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What he/she said.