MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:21 AM |
Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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7:05AM Update
Dennis is back up to Category 2, unfortunately, even with the drop to Category 1 this morning, Dennis core did not completely collapse, giving it the opportunity to restrengthen. In fact, recon is reporting that the eye wall is closed again all around.
I suspect it will regain its major hurricane status sometime today.
The radar for the Panhandle, located at Eglin Air Force Base (KEVX), has had a motor failure, keepiing that off. There is a rush to replace it, so hopefully we'll have that to look at and study before the day is out.
6:45AM Update
Dennis is back to a Category 1, weakening even more than I thought it wuold over Cuba. Although bad for Cuba, this is better news for us. Depending on how much the eye collapsed, storms tend to have a more difficult time reforming after such a drop in windspeed. Dennis retained a lot of its structure though, so strengthening is still possible. I"d still expect a major hurricane at landfall, but not a Category 4.
The other good news is that it tracked further west, being further west away from Key West, so they won't receive the full brunt of the system. Much of the Florida Peninsula will get feeder bands today, and it will generally be a bad day to be out. There exists the potential for nasty dounbursts, and short lived tornadoes.
I'm slightly relieved this morning because of those two things, but I'm not sure how much it will matter for the Gulf coast. Forecast track is still good, in my opinion.
Many people ask about how Charley made a "ight turn" into Central Florida. But you have to remember it was still well within the cone of error, and was predicted to make a west coast Florida landfall. Dennis has neither.
Beyond Dennis, the wave in the central Atlantic is starting to get tis act together, and may become a depression before the weekend is out.
Original Update
Dennis is back down to a Category 2 storm, after spending a bit more time over Cuba than originally expected. It is forecast to regain strength back into a Category 3 storm.
The Florida keys will see winds pick up more and more tonight. But the storm is staying far enough west to not have a direct landfall there.
The future track still puts it up toward the western panhandle, with the potential area from Louisiana to the Panhandle of Florida.
Tomorrow the Florida peninsula will see feeder bands, possible tornadoes, and short but heavy bands of rain move through along with being a general breezy day. Tropical storm force winds may be confined to the extreme west coast of Central Florida.
More tomorrow...
I'm looking for good Dennis related links to place on the front page; this includes good images, radar, satellite, streaming audio,video, emergency information, etc. Reply and let us know.
Site Note News talkbacks are now in lockdown mode, which means that unregistered users cannot reply.
You can still post in the other forums besides talkbacks. This enables us to moderate a lot better. I hate doing this, but I can see obvious signs of "storm stress" on a few individuals. We'll make it open again as soon as it calms down.
Registration is open for anyone, you can register Using this link. Then you will be able to reply here.
Hopefully this will only last a short time.
Event Related Links
Emergency Management
Gulf Coast Storm Alert Network
FloridaDisaster.org - Florida Emergency Management
Monroe County/Florida Keys,
Panhandle Coastal Counties West to East
Escambia County, FL, Santa Rosa, County, Okaloosa County, FL,
Walton County, FL,
Bay County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Franklin County, FL
Mississippi Emergency Management Agency (MEMA)
http://www.msema.org/index.htm
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands - Jamaican StormCarib Reports
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Guantanamo Bay, Cuba Radar
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa Bay, FL Long Range Radar
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Tallahassee, FL Long Range Radar
Mobile, AL Long Range Radar
Casablanca, Cuba Radar
Dennis
High Speed Storm Relative Floater - RAMSDIS ONLINE
Animated Model Plot of Dennis
Model Plot Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District of Dennis
Dennis Spaghetti Model from boatus
Weather Underground Model Plots for Dennis
Quikskat Image of Dennis
Color Sat of Dennis
Floater Satellite (Visible) of Dennis with Storm Track Overlays
Cienfuegosa, Cuba Radar - (Animated)
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Dennis
Webcams, Video, Audio
Mark Sudduth's at coastal Alabama again ready to move east or west, he has a mobile observation tower he'll be leaving along the coast when Dennis arrives - Hurricane Trak/Mark Suddth Car & Tower Cam
Suncam.tv's collection of Dennis cam's and Mobile (not the city) cams - Suncam.tv's Moble Car Cam
Hurricane City and Jim Williams do audio shows nightly around 8PM
Joseph Johnston's Mobile Bay Webcam
Key West Webcams
New Orleans webcams
Radio Habana, Cuba
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa, Mobile Bay,
New Orleans, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne
| stormchazer |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:28 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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Well folks, I will leave you to watching tonight. I will say a little prayer for those west of the Big Bend with all friends and a few relatives close in mind.
We shall see what the morning brings but the NHC seems to have it pegged. FL/AL/MS borders get ready because it appears an unwelcome visitor is approaching.
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:29 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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New topic, easier to show the filled request. It's borderline on-topic because all of the hurricane advisories are in CAPS.
I put together a quick and dirty converter for everyone. Simply copy and paste the text you want de-capsimahfied into that text area and click the shiny button.
http://www.ten15.net/convert.html
Cheers,
--Tom
*if too off-topic, kill this post - just trying to be helpful and I'm heading to bed.
| MarcoResi |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:34 AM |
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Weather getting nasty here Good luck all
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Off to bed now Praying for yall up north, remember if in doubt get out!!
| dolfinatic |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:34 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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here is water vapor sat for gom. Interesting to see that trough beginning to dig south and east a bit faster now. hmmm. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:38 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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Discussion 18 mentions Pascagoula for the first time. I am hoping that tomorrow evening I am not seeing another track like Ivan. I remembered how they kept saying it was going to turn east and turn east and it didn't. Ivan didn't turn east until the very last couple hours, so Pascagoula dodged the bullet then.
"The GFDL and GFS have shifted
to the right of their previous forecasts...while the UKMET remains
to the left of center of the guidance envelope. Consensus models
remain clustered around a landfall between Pascagoula and ft.
Walton Beach. The forecast track is shifted a little to the left
of the previous track...to match the initial position and motion in
the first 24 hr and to be a little closer to the consensus models
from 24-48 hr."
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:42 AM |
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Dennis and the se coast of fl.
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I just came from the beach,and I am just amazed at mother nature.The eye is so far away from here,yet the waves are huge ,the wind on the beach is a steady.12,000 without power in Broward,15,000 in Miami-Dade.Highest gust here in Broward was 50mph.I had to dodge parts of palm trees to and from the beach.Just the fact the eye is so far from here and yet I am seeing this,Amazing.
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:43 AM |
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Re: Dennis and the se coast of fl.
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that is amazing.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:44 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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here is hrd from 130 UTC
interesting as storm weakened
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/pub/hrd/hwind/2005/al04.2005/0709/0130/col02deg.png
eyewall is exiting coast now... almost halfway
recon is very close to eyewall..... would expect within 15-30mins first report from center
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:44 AM |
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Re: Dennis and the se coast of fl.
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hey bob...im curious but do u still stick by your prediction?....im not going on your prediction imjust curious thats all...thanks
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:45 AM |
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Re: Dennis and the se coast of fl.
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southern fl is getting hit with some heavy bands. anyone have conditions from there.
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:49 AM |
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Re: Dennis and the se coast of fl.
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Yes. Very squally weather...calm one moment...then boom 30-45mph winds and horizontal rain. Very cool..and a little eerie considering the distance we are from the center. Very humid tropical airmass.
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:51 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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the eye is exiting the coast. key west radar
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:53 AM |
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Re: Dennis and the se coast of fl.
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and another thing...dogs are a little on edge tonight...during Frances...and Jeanne last year no problems...but tonight they are noticeably different....not that this means much lol
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:53 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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looks like it is joggin a little to the north off the coast.
| lee haycook |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:54 AM |
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Re: Dennis and the se coast of fl.
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I'm in Cape Coral, we are having one storm after another, right now a band has just passed thru very breezy & wet am showing wind at about 10 on the weatherbug reading about a mile away from me.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:54 AM |
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Re: Dennis and the se coast of fl.
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Quote:Well,if Key West gets hurricane force winds I may save face.But I think South Florida most likely will not get a derect hit.Are biggest threat here now is tornados.We are under so many watches and warnings now,I can't keep track.Let's see......flash flood warning,tornado watch,high wind warning, severe thunder storm warning and watch.
hey bob...im curious but do u still stick by your prediction?....im not going on your prediction imjust curious thats all...thanks
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:55 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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another nasty band about to go through Broward
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:58 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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we havent had any bands here in tampa since about 6 or so....so i guess were doing pretty good so far....be safe everyone
| BeachBum |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:58 AM |
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Re: Evacuations
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Considering what Cindy did to Atlanta, I don't think heading to Montgomery is such a great idea. If I-10 was moving, I would go to Jacksonville.
For those between the Gulf and Choctawatchee Bay, any place will be better.
For newbies in Pensacola, ask your neighbors how the building/area did during Ivan. Solid structures north of I-10 should provide good shelter. I did see some damage in that area to older buildings.
Note: I am a coward. I left early for both Frances and Jeanne.
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:59 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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look at the mass of rain tho the east of the storm. KW Radar
| jkbtrb |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:01 AM |
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Re: Evacuations
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We live in Kings Mills which is on North Davis Hwy in Pensacola. I am so scared because one news station tells you to do one thing and another station tells you to do another. I think we will leave in the morning. I don't know what to think about any of this.
| msmith43 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:01 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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Yeah... been quiet on my side of town too.
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:04 AM |
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Re: Evacuations
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thats the media for ya. listen to what your local and state officials say. if you get infomation from those stations try to get a consensus and use your best judgement.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:07 AM |
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Re: Dennis and the se coast of fl.
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I hate that this is happening overnight.Hard to sleep,am worried about tornados.Some of these feeder bands are very intence.Oh,and there is a wave that could develope after Dennis.As I was typing they extended the tornado watch till 9am.The worst is the next 4-6 hours.God help anyone who gets a direct hit from this.
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:07 AM |
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Re: Dennis and the se coast of fl.
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Quote:
Well,if Key West gets hurricane force winds I may save face.
Most folks here eat their crow when called for.
At any rate, Dennis is starting to peek his eye into the Gulf. It'll be interesting to watch how quickly he reintensifies and what direction he'll go. The NHC has done much better with Dennis than I'd have expected. Kudos to them.
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:08 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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This is amazing. We are getting Severe Thunderstorm Warnings about every hour now tonight.
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:13 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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the eye is peeking off the coast now. those storms could do some damge so be careful.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:13 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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Quote:Justin,crazy, do believe the eye is so far away?What a night.If it will make anyone happy,I will eat crow,but only a small piece.
This is amazing. We are getting Severe Thunderstorm Warnings about every hour now tonight.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:13 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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the eye has is now exiting coast of cuba based on key west radar.... it just did brush the east side of havana.... AF308 i think is the plane having problems with communications right now but, would expect a vortex data from center within the hour... Also i am trying to figure out if N42RF is out there...... have noticed that some bands that are 31 and 50 miles from center that are now over water appear to be getting stronger again
Also appears key west radar my be having some tech problems... or the server my be real busy right now at noaa ftp
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:16 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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I think the server is busy...i am refreshing the page about every 5 minutes! lol (sorry)
| dolfinatic |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:20 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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Is it me or does it appear from radar to be moving more north again?
| BobVee |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:22 AM |
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Re: Evacuations
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My advise to you is what you hear from a lot of folks here. When in doubt, leave. Your life and the lives of your family are much too precious to jeopardize. I left when Francis was way offshore and was gone for 6 days. Do not regret it one bit. Good luck and may God bless and protect all of you.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:22 AM |
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Re: Dennis and the se coast of fl.
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No one here has to eat crow. I understand there is a considerable amount of stress on everyone with a humongous storm brewing just below us, but I would highly suggest that we keep the topic to the storm. This is a place for weather enthusiasts, not weather experts...and when we're wrong on something, they GENTLY correct us without telling us what to eat for dinner.
Nothing is set in stone yet...all you have to do is read Ed's blog from 10:16pm to know that. Believe me, I know him quite well and he would certainly not stick his neck way out there if he did not have good reasons. That's why he was a chief met with one of the local NWS offices in Florida for so long.
Let's just all stop the sniping and help each other get through this storm..that's really what this forum is all about.
Thank You!~danielw
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:22 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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it is moving more north again. And on that note time to go to bed.
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:24 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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one more thing Harding county in fl is under a tornado warning. batten down the hatches.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:24 AM |
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Re: Dennis' Movement
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Looks more N-NW the last 30 min or so..but does it seem like its slowed down?...what's the latest speed..12 mph..it looks like it might be doing 8-10 mph
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:24 AM |
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Re: Evacuations
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I agree, a friend of ours lives here in Lake County, he left yesterday and has gone to Texas. He did the same thing well before the 3 storms last year.
| drcrazibob |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:24 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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It's suppose to be moving north according to the forcasted track. Seems to be right on as I expected.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:30 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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the tornado warning... i see the rotation as of 12:21am edt... on tbw radar... moving nw, but does look weak...
interesting to cell is all by itself.... which would have good low level shear, (spinning at low levels)
| BobVee |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:32 AM |
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Re: Evacuations
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I am in Lake County as well. Looks like we will have some weather tomorrow but nothing like what some others will see and what others just have seen in Cuba. I pray for all of them. My family and I had planned to go up to Florida Caverns for a few days, leaving on Sunday but changed that. I only hope that it does not pull an Elena. I did not sleep for three days straight, working rescue calls due to tornados.
| EaglezFan42 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:37 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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I'm from Odessa in Pasco County just north of Tampa. It's been quiet here tonight. A very strong band came through the area around 6 but other than that, nothing.
Anyone think there's potential for Dennis to take a path closer to the Fla west coast then expected?
| dolfinatic |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:40 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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if it stays on the more northerly track it has been doing the last hour it might. Jusr my opinion. From the radar loop it appears to be going either nnw or even north at the moment. Could be only temporary but if it continues for awhile it would be interesting to see how the models react to it.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:42 AM |
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Hurricane Local Statement- NWS Mobile (edited)
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HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1110 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2005
...NEW INFORMATION...
I-65 WILL BE ONE WAYED NORTH BEGINNING AT 800 AM SATURDAY. THE ONE
WAYING WILL BEGIN NEAR THE STOCKTON (EXIT 31) AND END JUST SOUTH
OF MONTGOMERY. TRAFFIC GOING SOUTH ON I-65 SOUTH OF MONTGOMERY WILL
BE DIVERTED TO OTHER ROADWAYS.
WHEN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BEGIN TO AFFECT PENSACOLA BAY...THE
I-10 BRIDGE ACROSS PENSACOLA BAY WILL BE CLOSED.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 300 AM.
Full text available on the main page
| EaglezFan42 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:42 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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that would be interesting. none of the news stations can seem to agree on the path or effects of the storm.
| dolfinatic |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:47 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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yea the news stations are only going by the nws track. They really cant forecast where and what effects it will have. They are just a mirror of what their computer tells them. I think watching the radar signature is the best way to watch the storm from here on out.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:47 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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based on key west radar, i would say over half the center is back over water now.... inner eyewall to me appears to have collapsed in last hour as it merged into GOM....two things come to mind to me, a little weaker now and maybe the beginning of a EWR cycle.... hmm will see.... movement still the same, but i would say slightly slower....
Eye wall replacement...opps!
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:48 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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EWR???? whats that?
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:48 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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well AF sent another plan out
URNT11 KNHC 090435
97779 04304 70239 75819 67100 12012 6464/ /8042
RMK AF307 WX04A DENNIS OB 02
| dolfinatic |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:49 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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eye wall recycle i think
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:49 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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ERC: Eyewall replacement cycle
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:50 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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Quote:
EWR???? whats that?
Eyewall Replacement cycle. Hurricane replaces the old eyewall with a newer one.
| Lisa NC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:50 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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Eyewall replacement. I believe
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:52 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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WOW thank you all so very much....this is the best site ever made...
i sure hope the west coast doesnt take too much of a beating ...i dont know how well my place could handle...:(
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:52 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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ERC is Eyewall Replacement Cycle... This page may help.
| dolfinatic |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:52 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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Quote:For us laymen what does this mean?
well AF sent another plan out
URNT11 KNHC 090435
97779 04304 70239 75819 67100 12012 6464/ /8042
RMK AF307 WX04A DENNIS OB 02
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:54 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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Storm Name: DENNIS (04L)
Mission Number: WX
Flight ID: AF307
Observation Number: 02
Time: 0430Z
Latitude: 23.9°N
Longitude: 75.8°W
Location: 131 mi SE of Nassau, Bahamas
Turbulence: Occasional Moderate
Flight condition: In cloud
Pressure Altitude: 22000 feet
Flight level wind: ESE (120°) @ 14 mph
Temperature: 7°F
Dewpoint: 7°F
Weather: Unknown
D-value: 1400 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:54 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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Quote:
if it stays on the more northerly track it has been doing the last hour it might. Jusr my opinion. From the radar loop it appears to be going either nnw or even north at the moment. Could be only temporary but if it continues for awhile it would be interesting to see how the models react to it.
The 2 PM EDT GFS and GFDL both shifted east closer to the west coast of florida with landfall in the Florida Panhandle from Destin to Appalachacola. The NEW UKMET 8 PM EDT has also shifted east from Biloxi to Mobile/Pensicola. We need to see the newest GFS, GFDL and others at 8 PM to see what they have. The weakened storm probably isn't initialized very well in any model, so...might have to wait till tomorrow to get a better handle on landfall.
| Nate |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:55 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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Wonder how much it will re-intensify in the gulf??
Anyone see any water Temp models?
Forecasters are all saying 3, but if it syas on more of a NW Path, it could go higher.
| EaglezFan42 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:55 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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I was reading back on posts earlier this evening and I was wondering if youse guys think that the trough in the western Gulf of Mexico will play into Dennis's track? And also, what about the High Pressure system over Fla.
| dolfinatic |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:59 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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that trough worries me it appeared earlier to be digging south and east a little faster. I wonder if it is beginning to influence it with the more northerly jog in the past hour and the slowing down of the system.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 05:01 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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Quote:
I was reading back on posts earlier this evening and I was wondering if youse guys think that the trough in the western Gulf of Mexico will play into Dennis's track? And also, what about the High Pressure system over Fla.
Best I can say is read Ed Dunhams blog and Clarks blog today. The short answer is yes, the trough may, and I say may, cause a more northerly motion (rather than NW) or even a N-NE motion toward the big bend area of FL.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 05:01 AM |
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00z gfs
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dennis will probably be very bad news for folks at the coast, but the erratic behavior the models are showing after landfall once it runs out of ridge to ride and the low level flow kicks in... latest gfs runs have it running up to near southern illinois and then drifting back south to central mississippi by july 15th. i don't know if it can maintain a coherent circulation overland for that long, and it will probably shear off at some point.. but seeing that erratic behavior makes me wary of a serious inland flood threat in the midsouth.
dennis kept a tight inner core during it's passage of cuba... in spite of staying over land for a good while. it should spin back up to cat 3 or 4 in 12-24 hrs. i'm less optimistic about getting the pcb-destin strike window right.. as unwavering nhc track near pensacola and mobile continues to stand strong.
the globals are showing two apparent tropical cyclone threats coming out of the eastern atlantic in the following week. one is the wave consolidating the broad disturbed weather near 30-35w. in spite of a great environment aloft on the models and ssts that are well within support range gfs and the rest of the globals aren't showing much for it. when it gets near 40-45 west those ssts really start to go up... i wouldn't be surprised if a tropical cyclone named emily is threatening the ne caribbean around tue next week. the other thing showing on the globals is the follow-on wave which should emerge late tomorrow or early sunday. globals keep it on a low latitude approach, showing a persistent strong wave/surface low but not taking it off. that won't be a development threat for days, so not holding my breath.
dennis is going onto the home stretch. it's already secured a name retirement by its early season thrashing of the caribbean... let's hope it doesn't become infamous up here in the states.
HF 0601z09july
| kelcot |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 05:01 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
|
Quote:
Wonder how much it will re-intensify in the gulf??
Anyone see any water Temp models?
Forecasters are all saying 3, but if it syas on more of a NW Path, it could go higher.
My husband was in PCB this morning boarding up the beach house, he stoped for a quick swim, and said it felt like bath water.
If someone could post the water temp models, that would be fabulous!!!
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 05:04 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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Quote:
that trough worries me it appeared earlier to be digging south and east a little faster. I wonder if it is beginning to influence it with the more northerly jog in the past hour and the slowing down of the system.
Clark sez look for a slow down in motion for a sign of a change in direction (i.e. northerly). He sez this is a sign of the storm rounding the base of the ridge.
| dolfinatic |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 05:04 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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check the latest water vapor imagery for gom. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
| EaglezFan42 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 05:06 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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Gulf of Mexico water temps
that's from the weather channel. you can see how warm it is there!! I know here in Clearwater Beach, the water temp is an amazing 91!
| dolfinatic |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 05:08 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
|
also strange how the sat. pic is elongating south to north. Is this another indication of steering winds becoming more northerly? Plus I think that indicates some shearing going on in northern gom, right?
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 05:09 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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for some reason i think a ULL may form over the BOC....been looking at data for last hour and sats.... the feature coming down through east texas looks stronger than say 4-6hrs ago.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/special_gifs/gulf_wv_loop.gif
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 05:10 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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I will more interested to see an updated version of that WV loop. If you look, you can see that Dennis is still inland over Cuba, so it's an older loop.
BTW...check your PM's ....I sent you one..you'll see a flashing envelope at the top of the screen.
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 05:11 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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well we are starting to hear some thunder here in Riverview....hopefully it doens wake the little one....
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 05:13 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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the elongation may be just a feature of the storm seriously weakened and disrupted over its long trip over Cuba. The shear u mention is real and Ed Dunham mentions it in his blog. He sez the SW shear may actually turn Dennis N-NE once it moves further north into the NE GOM.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 05:16 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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Wow..that loop was fast! Does that indicate a more NW/NNW track to you? What kind of impact do you think it will have on Dennis?
Thanks!
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 05:19 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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Actually if you look the elongation is NW to SE hince the WNW and NW movement stand back and look at it.Clark is most definitely right slow down in movement usually means a change in direction.Then look at the clouds.
| Mike N |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 05:19 AM |
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|
Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
|
Good morning all! I have been following this site since all the canes came through FL last year. I'm in NE Tampa. Scottsvb..pm me I think you're right up the road from me. Love the site - have learned so much more - thanks to all the mets/experts.
Now, Isn't the pulse digging off SE Texas pushing fast? This seems to me that this will take the storm a lot closer to the west coast of FL. And also isn't the hign in the Atlantic eroded significantly over the last couple of hours. I don't think ths will hit the west coast, but I think it could come with 40-70 miles. I think the latest models picked up on this.
What does everyone think??? Look at the latest WV's.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 05:23 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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center of dennis has left cuba per key west radar!!!!
next stop northern Gulf
as of 1:10am edt 90% of center in north of havana
well 1:00am just came out
| EaglezFan42 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 05:26 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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yeh, if it comes within 70-40 miles from the west coast of fla, we can expect some major changes in Tampa's forecast. Atleast if that happens, Pensacola most likely wouldnt get hit, which is good.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 05:28 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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If it's NE of Havana, it's going to have more of an impact on the Keys...and potentially us if it keeps going that way. The last thing I want to do is wake up and find out that he's 50 miles off the coast of Tampa.
And that's not wishcasting at this point.
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 05:29 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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i am hearing you loud and clear colleen.....lets just hope it doesnt do that....
| EaglezFan42 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 05:29 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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yeh, that would not be good. hopefully its not like Jeanne last year where we woke up in the morning and find out that its still a cat 2 in polk instead of the forecasted trop. storm strength. heh.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 05:31 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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Quote:
Good morning all! I have been following this site since all the canes came through FL last year. I'm in NE Tampa. Scottsvb..pm me I think you're right up the road from me. Love the site - have learned so much more - thanks to all the mets/experts.
Now, Isn't the pulse digging off SE Texas pushing fast? This seems to me that this will take the storm a lot closer to the west coast of FL. And also isn't the hign in the Atlantic eroded significantly over the last couple of hours. I don't think ths will hit the west coast, but I think it could come with 40-70 miles.
What does everyone think??? Look at the latest WV's.
I think a lot of us are seeing the same thing. Again, Clark alluded to this in his blog yesterday. The models were simply not picking up on the strength of this feature. However, that said, a digging trough may act to pump up the ridge to the east so its not as clear cut as we think. But, the 18Z GFS and GFDL models and the 00Z UKMET model have all trended more toward the east today. With the 18Z GFS coming very close to maybe 50 miles offshore of Manatee Co. Now I see the 00Z Canadian has also trended east from Mobile to Destin. Not big shifts, but they all shifted their paths in the same direction. We'll have to see if this trend continues. Stay tuned....
| Mike N |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 05:32 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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Most definitely. Especially if it's a cat 3 or 4 passing Tampa.
Back to my earlier posts - what about the ridge eroding and the trough/pulse whatever it is digging deeper and faster than anticipated originally (off SE Texas). Any experts that can give some insight on that one. Thanks and stay tuned all night just in case.
As we learned last year with Charley, until it's N of your lat, anything can happen.
| EaglezFan42 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 05:34 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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does anyone know where to find all the maps that show the trough to the west and the high pressure to the east of fla? Cuz i cant find them anywhere. Thanks
| garrison |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 05:34 AM |
Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
|
looks to me like the N wobble when it was clearing the N Cuba coast was just that, I expect rapid reintensification to CAT 3 by mid am, its aleady starting to get its a act together and its only been over water an hr
| adogg76 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 05:34 AM |
|
Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
|
Dennis has all kinds of strange events going on....does it seem that the extreme eastern edge of Dennis is breaking off.....could it form a new Low??? Possibly seems to be heading for a merge with some moisture off of S. America........very long shot but possible for Dennis to form 2 lows??
He definately looks to me like a turn is in store.....to the East and a hit "obviously" North of Tampa........doesn't all this convection in the ESE quadrant worry anyone to the East of Florida???
We all hope we're wrong....not a fun time!!
| adogg76 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 05:38 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
|
(off-topic post removed)
ED
| garrison |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 05:38 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
|
if you are referring to the stuff south of the everglades.Miami, it looks to me like its well withing the overall circulation and once Dennis compresses, so will it
| StormSurfer |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 05:39 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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Why does my Gut tell me he's going to come alot more closer to Tampa than we expected and we're gonna see a turn. Looks like it from the latest models to me.
| EaglezFan42 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 05:42 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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a lot of people are getting the "gut feeling" now. that wouldnt be good if it came for Tampa, but hey, i think were way overdue for a big one.
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 05:44 AM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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well the wind is starting to pick up here....altho no more thunder....and no rain yet....key word there....
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 05:44 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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This pretty much is my last post b4 turnin in for the nite. I'm looking on the long range key west radar and this storm looks almost stationary to me. If its moving, it might be a slow drift to the NW. It's Havana Daydreamin'
Looks to be reorganizing very quickly too. Goodnight.
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 05:48 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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and that is not good. the more time it is in those warm waters with low shear the stonger it can possiblly get.
| Nate |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 05:48 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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Looks like its moving North at a NorthWest angel.
| EaglezFan42 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 05:50 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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yeh it does
| adogg76 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 05:51 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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Can we get that link for the water vapor imagery over GOM again.....PLease!!
| dolfinatic |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 05:53 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
| Mike N |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 05:54 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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Off subject but how can you tell if someone is online to respond to a PM?? Thanks.
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 05:55 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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You're new messages thingy on top will flash.
Let me be more professional.... The link at the top of your screen, near where it says who you are logged in at.... will blink, encouraging you to view your unread messages. If you wish to read older messages and do not have any unread messags, you may click on the link "settings."
| adogg76 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 05:57 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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yup....here comes another stronger wave from the trough out of Texas and and it should mean an Easterly turn unfortunately.....I still think he has a few odd features right now......and is he stalled out slightly??
| adogg76 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 05:58 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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(off topic post removed)
ED
| dolfinatic |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 06:00 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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We are getting a nasty feeder band right now here. Rain horizontal and coming down in a torrent.
| StormSurfer |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 06:01 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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That trough looks pretty strong to me from the water vapor Image. I think it going to give Den a lil bump. What you all think?
AT 2 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS ESTIMATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 30
MILES...45 KM NORTH OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 90 MILES...150 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.
| msmith43 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 06:01 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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First rain of the night coming thru.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 06:02 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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Sup Mike ,.,, you have a question?
| dolfinatic |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 06:03 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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Yep it looks like it has stalled or is drifting very slowly north. Getting a bad feeling on this one for us on the west coast. Think the forecast track will change at 5?
| willw |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 06:03 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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Hell to pay if this thing comes within 50 miles of the coast.All of these tampa stations were "it's not coming near us" attitudes could end up in deaths. We'll see, let's all pray it keeps on it's current track and doesn't hit the west coast of florida, or comes up it. That would be a horrible scenerio raking the whole coast line. Fox 13 met's have all but said "just don't go boating and it'll be nonsquential weather event for the viewing area's.
| EaglezFan42 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 06:03 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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yep, thunder's starting around here.
| EaglezFan42 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 06:05 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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yeh, today on the 5 oclock news on CBS, they had an attitude as if as of 5 PM this afternoon, the hurricane was done for us. It's definately far from done with the west coast.
| msmith43 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 06:05 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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Let's not get ahead of ourselves.
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 06:06 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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we just got a hell of a band....woke the little one....well its still little windy....nothing big tho...luckily.....i pray and hope that dennis doesnt harm anyone and doesnt bother uson the west coast....good luck to all and stay safe
| dolfinatic |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 06:09 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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Yea I heard the only met that said we were not out of the woods was jerve on channel 8. I didnt hear that but was told he was the only one to say that we should still keep an eye on this.
| StormSurfer |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 06:09 AM |
|
Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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Quote:
Let's not get ahead of ourselves.
True True. Let's stay calm and keep a close watch. We knew it was coming and know it's going to end up somewhere. Just be ready for anything. We could have a better idea once it moves nearer around the keys to look for movements. I would say the 5am update should be interesting.
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 06:10 AM |
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Recon Report
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pressure is up to 974mb
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 06:11 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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Yes its wobbling at 350dg or NNW right now.. lets see if there is a trend. I dont expect a landfall in west-central florida. It would have to go 360dg N to make it to St Pete. My Landfall is still near Panama City Beach give or take 50 miles. This one is very hard to forecast cause of the many varibles that could affect the track....weak upper low in the SW GULF, trough over the NW GULF shortwaves riding through and a impulse droping through the Ohio Valley. Same time the ridge just east of Florida getting squeezed. Overall its becoming NNW-SSE so Dennis should move more NNW now and then N maybe saturday night. Any deviation to the right will make landfall near Appalachacola late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Again landfall and weather over west central florida will be worst if the latter does happen......
| EaglezFan42 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 06:11 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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Yeh, this radar definately shows the northerly jog.
Key West Radar
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 06:11 AM |
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whoa
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y'all seen the vortex msg? 974mb, max fl winds 69kt. the core is still tightly wound, but this sucker weakened a whole lot. next advisory should trim it down quite a bit. right now all that heavy convection on the s. coast of cuba and over florida is robbing the center of inflow. whenever it builds back the storm should reintensify rather quickly... but i dunno. hurricanes are quirky. sometimes they spin right back up, sometimes they come off a landmass and act like they forgot what warm water is for, in spite of everything being just right for them. we'll know more as the night progresses.
HF 0710z09july
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 06:12 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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Looking at the Key West radar site...it looks as though it is moving NNW. For now, anyway. Could just be a wobble, though.
I'm going to bed...I'm going to need all the sleep I can get. But I'm sure I'll awake every hour to look at the radar loops, LOL!
| msmith43 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 06:14 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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Your comments seems consistent with earlier remarks from the "mets" (Clark, et. al.). This should be expected based on what they've said.
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 06:16 AM |
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Re: whoa
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It's a good thing it took so long to get across Cuba....
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 06:16 AM |
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|
Models
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Scott...what are your thoughts on the models beginning to trend back to the east? Is this because we didn't have enough/any info while Dennis was over Cuba or because they have finally picked up on the strength of the trough?
I'm so confused........
Thanks for your help!
| willw |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 06:16 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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I'm not trying to, i just think that the whole line of following the models to a "T" is problematic. Hurricanes do weird stuff. All the guidance and models in the world can't predict some of the things hurricanes do.. remember 1985 i think? elana? It looped back at us and then went away again... (if i remember right, i was like 10-12 years old at the time)
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 06:16 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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Yeah I have a degree in Meteorology. I nailed 14 of the storms last year to within 50 miles for 3 days out or more. I wish though i can nail the winter storm snowfalls...lol that would be great.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 06:19 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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Hey Colleen,, well they are all saying Mobile - Panama City beach. I dont see anything more then that. Currently I have the Panama City 1 still cause of the shape of the ridge. Also notice the impulse dropping through Tenn right now.
I wouldnt be surprised if just before landfall up there a NNE jog happens. Also shocked if it does tomorrow.......
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 06:19 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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Quote:
Hell to pay if this thing comes within 50 miles of the coast.All of these tampa stations were "it's not coming near us" attitudes could end up in deaths. We'll see, let's all pray it keeps on it's current track and doesn't hit the west coast of florida, or comes up it. That would be a horrible scenerio raking the whole coast line. Fox 13 met's have all but said "just don't go boating and it'll be nonsquential weather event for the viewing area's.
From the 1 AM EDT Advisory. edited...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES...100 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.
That's basically 1 degree, lat. or long., on the Hurricane force winds right now.
And, nearly 3 degrees, lat. or long.,on the Tropical Storm force winds.
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 06:19 AM |
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Re: whoa
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Hank,
Nice attempt at Florida Engrish!
Seriously: Any guidance on this one?
that's my preferred native tongue. guidance: same as before. walton/bay counties sun afternoon cat 3. -HF
| Lisa NC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 06:29 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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On the Key west radar the center seems to reforming eye without rain. and on sat. cloud tops are cooling. doesn't seem to be taking much time to start strenghening again will be interesting to see where decides to go and when
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 06:34 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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pressure is dropping down 1 mb to 973mb Fl windts 71kts. still think winds down pressure up at the 3 am advisory due to a longer than expected interaction with cuba.
| dolfinatic |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 06:38 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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yep back on the build
| dolfinatic |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 06:39 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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also looks nearly stationary
| ohioaninmiss |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 06:40 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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Have a look at the 06z models on this site http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/05070905
scroll down - the upper one is earlier - 00z.
If I am reading this right (and I am VERY much the amateur) the models shift landfall back to the west - Gulf Port to Pensacola, hitting in 48 hours and at a much weaker 71 kts.
Thoughts?
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 06:43 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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Still moving NW, probably just slightly more N than W. Earlier today I could sort of make out the edge of the ridge. Looked like a west Panhandle hit to me, and that's what I'm sticking to. Seems that SoFla may be good after all
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 06:44 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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yeah it is just drifting to the NW. Not good gives it more time to get reorganized.
| willw |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 06:46 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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yeah the north jog probably was just that, appears to be back on course. It still wobbled while over cuba pushing it's path more west. Whether it corrects itself and starts going NNW then west coast of central florida is good.. much to the relief of the weather stations :P
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 06:47 AM |
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ships
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yeah, that's definitely new. ships is spinning it down slowly from here. lots of the 00z runs are in, though... they do nothing of the sort. still i'd like to know why it's killing off dennis (something completely new). of course next time they run it, it might be back to the same old cat 3 hit.
HF 0747z09july
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 06:50 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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3 am out dennis 100mph 973mb nw at 14 mph the advisory still says it will re-strengthen to a Cat 3. hmmm??
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 06:51 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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Quote:
Have a look at the 06z models on this site http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/05070905
scroll down - the upper one is earlier - 00z.
If I am reading this right (and I am VERY much the amateur) the models shift landfall back to the west - Gulf Port to Pensacola, hitting in 48 hours and at a much weaker 71 kts.
Thoughts?
The most northern position, BAMD, 31.3N 88.4W is near the MS/AL state line due East of Hattiesburg. That would be around 70 miles inland.
| adogg76 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 06:53 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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For those of us who have felt the ground shake....and man, does that wind sound like people screaming!!!!!
http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=mg18625065.900
seismologists study hurricanes effects on the Earth's crust
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 06:54 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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Quote:
3 am out dennis 100mph 973mb nw at 14 mph
100mph! My calculator must be broken.
I saw 71kts on Vortex.
So much for the SHIP model intensity.
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 06:57 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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mine is to. 71 kts is 83mph and 90% of that is 73mph not even a hurricane!!
that is very interesting
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 07:01 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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they must be going by pressure because 970 mb = about 104 mph
| Hurricane Fredrick 1979 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 07:02 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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From the models I ran at 9/06Z the are varying from 70 -88 kts at 10/18Z
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 07:02 AM |
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100mph
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There are using the VAD at Key West NWS.
Showing maximum of 78kts at 300 ft at 0652Z.
My guess.
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 07:03 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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maybe I'm just tired. going to bed soon (maybe)
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 07:04 AM |
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Re: 100mph
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oops at key west. but still that was at 0652Z and it representaion on sat is not that good
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 07:08 AM |
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Re: 100mph
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Base Velocity showing gate-to-gate of -123 and +122kts
| ohioaninmiss |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 07:11 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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Not to sound too much like a science teacher (which I am) - New Scientist is NOT a peer reviewed journal...which means that pretty much any theory/idea/study can be published, whether it is a good or bad study.
I always view these kinds of articles with a great deal of skepticism.
-- oops, this was in reply to adogg76, not daniel!
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 07:13 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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back in the 60's. The Navy used to track and try to pinpoint hurricans using seismic activity. it was somewhat succseful but time consuming and impractical with the emergence of sat imagry and recon from planes.
Edit: You can read about it in the book "Hurricane Watch" by Bob sheets Former dir. of NHC and Jack Williams and excuse my spelling lol there was also expirementations with hyrophones to track hurricanes same book.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 07:18 AM |
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Water Vapor Loop
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Looks like he is about to shift gears. Convective band on northern side building up quickly.
Barely visible at 0600Z and now extends from near Homestead to near Ft Myers and then SSW halfway to the center.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 07:23 AM |
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Re: Water Vapor Loop
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now we will see if it will restrengthen or not
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 07:32 AM |
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Re: Water Vapor Loop
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well you guys keep up the great work...and im heading to bed myself....good night and hopefully i wont be evacuated when i wake up in themorning....
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 07:36 AM |
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Re: Water Vapor Loop
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thanks. 72mph gust at key west. and good night.
HR out (this time for real)
| reasonmclucus |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 07:38 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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Quote:
Not to sound too much like a science teacher (which I am) - New Scientist is NOT a peer reviewed journal...which means that pretty much any theory/idea/study can be published, whether it is a good or bad study.
I always view these kinds of articles with a great deal of skepticism.
-- oops, this was in reply to adogg76, not daniel!
The peer review process has become flawed. Advances in science require a willingness to "think outside the box" which the peer review process works against. Science also requires a skeptical attitude even to accepted ideas. the natural human tendency is to be overly skeptical of new ideas and too accepting of established ones. In climatology this tendency has resulted in climatologists wasting time talking about magical greenhouse gases and too little time on the real ways humans may be affecting climate including changing land use.
In this particular article it is very likeily that hurricanes produce sufficient force to impact the earth's crust.
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 07:38 AM |
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Re: Is the pulse coming off SE Texas digging or what???
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Quote:
Not to sound too much like a science teacher (which I am) - New Scientist is NOT a peer reviewed journal...which means that pretty much any theory/idea/study can be published, whether it is a good or bad study.
News sources are not peer reviewed journals, but rather use articles in peer reviewed journals as basis for their articles.... Perhaps this one did not, as I don't recognize the .org link that shows the data, but frequently CNN/AP/whatever articles cite research published in Journal of Geophysical Research, etc. The goal is to explain the cutting edge research in layman's terms... sometimes this does mean a little of the science is incorrect, but generally, it works out for the best.
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 07:42 AM |
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Re: Water Vapor Loop
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Motion is again appearing to have a more westerly component than straight NW...
| EaglezFan42 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 07:52 AM |
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Re: Water Vapor Loop
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yeh, it is....
right now, it looks like its moving due west
| Hurricane Fredrick 1979 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 07:54 AM |
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Re: Water Vapor Loop
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I know no one want to hear this but has anyone seen on the models where they are picking up on another one behind Dennis 4 1/2 to 5 days out?
| EaglezFan42 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 07:57 AM |
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Re: Water Vapor Loop
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yes....unfortunately. heh
do they have a track for it yet?
| LadyStorm |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 07:57 AM |
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Indecisive Dennis
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The upper-level high pressure ridge has weakened over Florida and the eastern Gulf, while a strong upper-level disturbance is diving into eastern Texas. This will help to maintain a weakness in the upper-level wind flow over the central Gulf, and Dennis will turn northward ahead of this weakness. If the Atlantic high pressure ridge fails to build farther west, Dennis could track close to the west coast of Florida Saturday. If the upper-level high pressure ridge builds stronger to the west, then Dennis will be diverted more toward Louisiana. We should know soon what Dennis will do.
| EaglezFan42 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 08:00 AM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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so does that mean if the high pressure weakens, a turn to the NE or E?
And where did you find that info?
| LadyStorm |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 08:01 AM |
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Re: Water Vapor Loop
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Quote:
I know no one want to hear this but has anyone seen on the models where they are picking up on another one behind Dennis 4 1/2 to 5 days out?
Yep..... A tropical wave located along 43 west is moving west at about 6 degrees longitude per day. Another tropical wave along 62 west, south of 20 north is moving west at about 6 degrees per day. Finally we have a wave along 28 west south of 18 north also moving west at 6 degrees longitude per day. We continue to see less shear than normal through the Caribbean and into the Atlantic. This combined with warmer than normal water temperatures and lower than normal average surface pressures could certainly help any of these tropical waves to develop but probably not within the next couple of days.
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 08:02 AM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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I think the question of the hour for Peninsula residents (such as myself) is, how deep will the southwesterly flow go, and how much affect will it have on Dennis. I'm feeling pretty safe here in greater Tampa tonight, but I guess you never know.
| LadyStorm |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 08:03 AM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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I found it on the 3 am discussion on the Accuweather website. I have been concerned over a possibliity of a northeast turn and have been watching very closely. Although nearly all of the models disagree.
| EaglezFan42 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 08:04 AM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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that would be nice if the models were right but you never know unfortunately
| Mike N |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 08:26 AM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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Nothing has been mentioned for hours about 2 of the models (GFS and another) that had shifted to the right. Have more models come in and if so, what are they like now? NE Turn someone mentioned??? Are the dynamics setting up or projecting for the possibility of that happening around 28-30 deg lat?? Yesterday, there was absolutely no chance of this thing bending NE until 200 mi inland.
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 08:32 AM |
Re: Indecisive Dennis
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We are getting an enormous band right now....we must have winds over 50mph and higher gusts...what a squall line! Get readay everyone north of me!
| berserkr |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 08:36 AM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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I think we can safely assume that this storm is heading towards the AL/FL border, just as the NHC has been saying for DAYS now. Kudos to them for calling it right 3+ days out.
(remainder of post removed. On this site you can attack the post, but not the poster. What is not important to you may be quite important to another.)
Ed Dunham
CFHC Administrator
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 08:39 AM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis *DELETED*
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OT... Removed for Clutter.
| EaglezFan42 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 08:46 AM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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yeh really
| mojorox |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 09:04 AM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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Is the five oclock report out?
| LadyStorm |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 09:08 AM |
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5 am out
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The 5 am track is nearly identical to the one posted at 11, just a slight hair east. With each passing map as long as it stays west we here in Florida can rest a bit easier. Not until he is well north and inland though. After living thru Charley its easy to have post tramatic stress syndrome. Our favorite saying in these parts of Florida these days is I hope that hurricane out there doesn't pull a :Charely".
| KC |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 09:18 AM |
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Re: 5 am out
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Watch out for the storms! We've had some wicked storms and a lot of rain so far in the Naples area. We also lost power for an hour, something that did not happen at all last year. If you are in the path be careful and get your coffee made now!
Karen
| stormchazer |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 09:44 AM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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Good morning to you to! Wow a whole 7th post and you are our official critic.
Its cool but this is a Weather Discussion board where we discuss and learn and some times make some dubious pronouncements. As for feeder band post, well those who live in effective areas do like to talk about those things as it is a Discussion board as fore-mentioned.
Anyhow, looks like Dennis is a little ragged. Will be interesting to see what comeback it can make. Models are in tight agreement so will just have to watch and hope that are friends to the North and west do not get a stronger storm.
| lagetawaay |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 09:54 AM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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gm to all a newbie here love tracking hurricanes especially since i live about 50 miles from gulf shores
| Talassee |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 10:22 AM |
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5 AM Discussion
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The 5 am discussion is not showing up on the NHC website...at least not for me. Has anyone seen it?
| LadyStorm |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 10:30 AM |
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Re: 5 AM Discussion
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Quote:
The 5 am discussion is not showing up on the NHC website...at least not for me. Has anyone seen it?
Try this link:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/tropicalwx/t...ze/AL0405W5.JPG
| Talassee |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 10:30 AM |
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Re: 5 AM Discussion
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Never mind....found it here....thnks.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 10:34 AM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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Put this into context. We're coming off a year in which we endured 4 major storms in a short amount of time. To have another major storm in our area in less than a year and so early this year puts us on edge. Yes, we're nervous. As far as trusting the NHC forecast 100%, not going to happen. Charley's hard right turn was not forecast at all after days of forecasts showing a more northwesterly track. So, let folks vent a bit.
| Marknole |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 10:48 AM |
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Re: 5 AM Discussion
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Here's the most notable/best part of the 5 AM discussion. Great news to wake-up to:
SHIPS MODEL IS NO LONGER RE-INTENSIFYING DENNIS BUT THE
GFDL DOES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CONTINUITY AND
RE-STRENGTHENS DENNIS OVER THE GULF BUT THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD LATER TODAY. NORMALLY...
IT TAKES 12 TO 24 HOURS FOR A CYCLONE TO RECOVER FROM THE EFFECTS
OF LAND...IF AT ALL.
| Prospero |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 10:50 AM |
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Re: 5 AM Discussion
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News 9 says a tornado on the ground near St. Pete Beach.
It is moving west, so if you have just woke up in St. Pete, maybe due to the lightning, better take precautions...
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 10:51 AM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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looks like in last 2-3hrs the CDO has expanded after entering the GOM late last night. most IR sat shots show much cooler tops around Dennis center then a few hrs ago. The CDO looks much better now then it did say around 1:00am edt this morning. Dennis should make one last run in strengthing now...
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 10:57 AM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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Hunter, I noticed that also. Was very relieved when I woke up and saw the wind speed but it looks like Dennis is intensifying. Very cold cloudtops, and on the west side of the storm. The boards are leaning on the windows outside..if the trend continues I better get them up.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 10:58 AM |
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got love the DOD elgin
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MESSAGE DATE: JUL 08 2005 18:34
KEVX RADAR HAS A PROBLEM WITH A MOTOR THAT NEEDS TO BE REPLACED. A
TEAM IS ENROUTE FROM THE ROC...HOPES ARE TO HAVE RADAR BACK UP BY
SOMETIME SATURDAY
well as many problems as the radar has had this year, i am not at all surprised the darn thing is down again. thats going to suck if they don't get a new "motor" in. For those who don't know, this is the eglin Air force base nexrad. Basically the only radar in panhandle.... others around include TLH, EOX, MOB
oh yeah side note
FTMTLH
Message Date: Jul 09 2005 01:30:00
THE KTLH WSR-88D WILL BE DOWN FOR APPROXIMATELY 2 HOURS TO FIX THE BROKEN AC. ÿÿ
NOUS62 KTAE 090433
FTMTLH
Message Date: Jul 09 2005 04:33:41
THE KTLH WSR-88D WILL REMAIN SHUT DOWN DUE TO AN A/C FAILURE. LOCAL CONTRACTOR
WILL ORDER PARTS. ETIC POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.
| ddolphinmom |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 10:58 AM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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I just wanted to make a comment. I have been coming here and reading what everyone is saying since last year. I have no weather knowledge other than what I see on the tv and here. Thank you to all of you that do have that knowledge. I feel much more comfortable knowing I can check with you and see what everyone is thinking. Oh and as for your comments beserk, did you see what Charley did in Punta Gorda??? Until the last minute that was supposed to be hit us. I am very thankful it didn't but also cautious when watching the "official" weather reports.
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 11:03 AM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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Dennis is strengthening...winds are up to 105 mph again according to TWC
| Prospero |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 11:06 AM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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Sun City Center, Florida:
I woke up and looked at the radar to see I had about two minutes to get out and pick up my newspaper and have a quick smoke.
I see the storm has weakened, and that is GREAT! Also that we are more than likely out of the line of fire, that is GREAT too!
But, we don't need a direct hit to watch the trees dance crazy and see the rain blow horizontal. We are in for a storm, weak or not, and today will be one to go down in history.
Oooo Weeee! It is coming down out there, and a blowin' too!
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 11:07 AM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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7am Advisory:
Quote:
At 7 am EDT...1100z...the eye of Hurricane Dennis was located near
latitude 24.1 north...longitude 83.2 west or about 95 miles
west-southwest of Key West Florida.
Dennis is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph and this motion is
expected to continue during the next 24 hours.
A NOAA reconnaissance plane indicates that winds are beginning to
increase again and have reached 105 mph...with higher gusts. Dennis
is now a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some
re-strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Looks like we will once again have a major in just a few hours
--Lou
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 11:17 AM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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I was hoping the eye might blow out over Cuba, but it didn't happen. If shear picks up toward the landfall it will keep it in Check, somewhat like Ivan was kept in check from sinking into Category 4 last year.
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 11:22 AM |
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From Reuters...
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On a somber note, the death toll from Dennis, according to Reuters, now stands at 32 (22 in Haiti, 10 in Cuba). I fear that Haiti total may rise substantially.
--Lou
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 11:23 AM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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Looking at the water vapor GOM loop, the upper level trough over Texas is digging southward and moving eastward. Whether that will have any significant influence on Dennis is the question now. Could force a more northerly turn later today or tomorrow. Heads up, folks in the panhandle.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 11:23 AM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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vis sats are coming up.... good morning dennis!
Many storms near center, not good
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/data/satellite/latest_TPA_vis.jpg
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 11:25 AM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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pressure down now too
URNT12 KNHC 091055
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/1013Z
B. 24 00 MIN N
83 DEG 06 MIN W
C. NA
D. NA
E. NA
F. 015 DEG 61 KT
G. 302 DEG 20 NM
H. EXTRAP 969 MB
I. 12 C/ 3049 M
J. 16 C/ 3055 M
K. 12 C/ NA
L. OPEN NW
M. E04/12/08
N. 12345/7
0. 1/ 1 NM
P. NOAA2 1204A DENNIS OB 18
MAX FLT LVL WIND 69 KT NE QUAD AT 09/0912Z
SLP EXTRAPOLATED FROM 700 MB.
SFMR MAX SFC WND 72 KT NE QUAD 0848Z
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 11:29 AM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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All the models have come into agreement with only about a 80 difference on landfall, and all having the same track...unfortunate for me. But what an OUTSTANDING job by the NHC. We were worried about Cindy when the first tracks were coming out for Dennis and they have never changed. The panhandle is better prepared for this storm than any in history. SUPER, SUPER, SUPER job.
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 11:34 AM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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Quote:Yes, unfortunately for you and a lot of our forum friends in your area, the NHC *has* done a great job with this storm. God knows, they've had plenty of practice between last year and a busy start this year. Practice makes perfect, they say. I want to wish you and anyone affected by this storm, the best of luck and for you to be safe and suffer no harm.
But what an OUTSTANDING job by the NHC. We were worried about Cindy when the first tracks were coming out for Dennis and they have never changed. The panhandle is better prepared for this storm than any in history. SUPER, SUPER, SUPER job.
| Marknole |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 11:36 AM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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Mike, You're obviously right, but I'm surprised that Avila's 5 AM discussion isn't verifying. With the expansion of the wind field (the skater's arms are extended...), it would seem to be difficult for Dennis to get it's act back together.
Are there any examples of previous 'canes crossing Cuba (especially the long routes), and what happened after they emerged into the GOM?
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 11:36 AM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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ok im now convinced i guess! for days i was saying it wasnt going too the panhandle but its not hitting us so im good, just a little breezy. but for the future does it look like floirida is sticking out like a sore thumb? and waht bout jersey or virginia does it look like they will have warm enough waters? it just looks too me that we are in a very bad pattern this year and maybe make history for the most storms in florida.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 11:40 AM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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here's some hurricane research image..... (this is not official)
http://hurricane.methaz.org/hurapak/AAL042005_impact.png
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 11:41 AM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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Quote:
it just looks too me that we are in a very bad pattern this year and maybe make history for the most storms in florida.
I'd be happy if the season simply shut down for the rest of this year.
|
MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 11:50 AM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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TD#5 might be there by Monday sometime in the Central Atlantic. Sigh.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 11:52 AM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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close-up vis
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/data/rmtcrso/140.jpg
also pressure down again
2mb in 1-2hrs?
URNT12 KNHC 091140
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/1111Z
B. 24 00 MIN N
83 DEG 15 MIN W
C. 70MB 2845 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 244 DEG 70 KT
G. 165 DEG 16 NM
H. 967 MB
I. 12 C/ 3076 M
J. 14 C/ 3092 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. OPEN NW
M. E04/12/08
N. 12345/7
0. 1/ 1 NM
P. NOAA2 1204A DENNIS OB 18
MAX FLT LVL WIND 72 KT NE QUAD AT 09/1014Z
SFMR MAX SFC WND 80 KT SE QUAD
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 11:53 AM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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I hear that it will track in a more northerly direction, not threatening the Caribbean.
| adogg76 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 11:55 AM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
|
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
Are we sure about the track not changin' East more?????
|
MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 11:56 AM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
|
Quote:
I hear that it will track in a more northerly direction, not threatening the Caribbean.
True, but those models suggest it'll pass north of the islands, but beyond that it has the chance not to be a fish spinner. we'll get there when we get there. Hopefully it'll stay out to sea.
|
SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 12:08 PM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
|
Quote:
here's some hurricane research image..... (this is not official)
http://hurricane.methaz.org/hurapak/AAL042005_impact.png
Now that is useful. Thanks for the post.
Clark recently sent me data to help us render maps like this with the official NHC data. Heavy math, but we'll get it sorted out.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 12:09 PM |
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from ft lauderdale
|
Just got my power back on.Huge waves at the beach,and alot of stuff on the streets.Newspaper stands blown over.Power still out in some parts of town.A SW gust to 55mph.Tornado watch just extended to 4:00pm.
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 12:14 PM |
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Re: from ft lauderdale
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so is it really safe too say its over for the penisula? whats the trough looking like? i cant tell by looking at the wator vapor loop.
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 12:18 PM |
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IR Loops
|
Looking at the recent IR loops, here is what I am seeing....which is from the eyes of a complete amateur:
I notice that the huge convective plume that extended far east and south of the hurricane's center appears to be cutting off from the main circulation. In layman terms, I believe the hurricane is consolidating it's energy into the main core, which would allow intensification. The interraction with Cuba caused the circulation and associated weather to vastly expand over a much larger area. With these errant feeder bands appearing to "pinch off", this will allow the focus of energy to reassert itself on the main core....does this make any sense whatso-ever...or am I seriously sleep deprived?
Also, the Key West radar is showing a continued steady NW jaunt....no signs of any Northward turn. Also, look at the eyewall convection exploding from the Key West radar's vantage point (although open on the NW side as confirmed by latest vortex data)
Key West Radar Loop
--Lou
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 12:19 PM |
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Re: from ft lauderdale
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i see it now from the nw atlantic wator vapor loop. whats the eta on this huge trough dipping? its going pretty fast from the nw too the se.
| SirCane |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 12:19 PM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
|
Well, Pensacola is in trouble. Not even a year since Ivan. I feel for the beaches. They are going to take a big beating.
| WeatherFlow |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 12:29 PM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
|
Some additional weather data from WeatherFlow stations in Florida:
http://www.sailflow.com/dennis/
| jlauderdal |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 12:37 PM |
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Re: from ft lauderdale
|
Quote:
Just got my power back on.Huge waves at the beach,and alot of stuff on the streets.Newspaper stands blown over.Power still out in some parts of town.A SW gust to 55mph.Tornado watch just extended to 4:00pm.
i broke down at 10 last night and moved the stuff off the pool deck. I am a mile form the beach in NE FLL and it was blowing pretty good and I am glad I did because about 4 am we were rocked by a squall line.
| adogg76 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 12:41 PM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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So when are we gonna get some data for this new wave in Easter Carib.......Very impressive this morning.......
Too much attention to Dennis or really just not developed yet???? And another wave beyond that......Busy July!!
| h2ocean |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 12:44 PM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
|
Here are two more links to weather observations...
Just click on the circles...
http://www.anythingweather.com/state.aspx?id=fl
This is the NWS Mesonet and includes observations from home weather stations (mine is listed). You can zoom in by making a little square over a specific area and control what data you want - ie wind gusts.
http://www-frd.fsl.noaa.gov/mesonet/
| h2ocean |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 12:48 PM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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Actually, a few of the models have two lows out in the Atlantic next week - I assume in addition to the healthy wave (low) they are picking up the mass of storms that will exit Africa in a few days. GEEZ!
| luvmysunshine |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 12:54 PM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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Hopefully, this isn't too dumb of a question...We're in Fayetteville, NC originally on our way to Orlando. Would it be safe down I-95 today? If not all the way to Orlando, maybe down into Georgia?
Thanks for the help.
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 12:56 PM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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so what is the eta on that trough from tx its huge. i know the hurricane travels slower than that trough so what is the eta?
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 12:57 PM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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Quote:Relatively safe on I-95. Expect some brief squalls once you're in Florida/south Georgia.
Hopefully, this isn't too dumb of a question...We're in Fayetteville, NC originally on our way to Orlando. Would it be safe down I-95 today? If not all the way to Orlando, maybe down into Georgia?
Thanks for the help.
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 12:57 PM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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95 South into Georgia should be fine until later this evening.
In Brevard County (Cocoa Beach/Melbourne/Palm Bay), we haven't gotten rain yet, although I'm expecting that to change in the next hour or so.
Not to mention, you should have an easy drive to I-4.
*as stated above me, expect rain depending on the time of your departure.
| adogg76 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 01:04 PM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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As long as he does not turn!!!!
Conditions will be bad tho......prob the whole trip!! Sorry, but i do not feel the pressure of tourism in my wallet, so it is not in MY best interest to keep people coming to the state to spend money, in spite of any concerns about weather.
After last year, many businesses have not recovered fully, many structures still have damage......any strong "feeder bands" today will surely leave a trail of damage. Trees that have been clinging since last year, will finally let go......if winds get above 55 mph or so......traffic lights and power transformers start going which leads to utter confusion on the roads......
Restaurants will not have the quality food or service you expect......trucks unable to deliver, power outtages, people stranded at home!!!! It does NOT add up to your families ideal Disn#y vacation.......
Personally, I drove North on 95 during IRENE in '99 at traffic was horrible, vision was very limited, and that was in the tail end of it!! Storms are no fun to drive thru.......of course you may get pummeled too if you stay in GA.....
Maybe Jacksonville for a day or two??? ok beaches with some good surf from the storm.......provided it does not turn.....
just my thoughts......live in Melbourne right near 95!!!!!
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 01:08 PM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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Remember though, I-95 is on the East Coast of the state.
The weather there is going to be nothing like I-75 on the West Coast. In fact, it'll be pretty close to our usually rainy summer weather. I appreciate the concern, but telling people that the East Coast is in for nasty weather isn't wholly accurate - unless the storm comes a little closer in that is
*Irene was a nasty one, but she was on the East Coast, to be fair.
Palm Bay off of 95, here.
Cheers.
| adogg76 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 01:08 PM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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hmmmmm......current Eyewall replacement????? Watch out at 11am adv!!!!
Strating to think he may meander in GOM like Jeane did in ATL last year!!!!!
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 01:13 PM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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hey adogg...what do you mean by that?..... GOOD MORNING ALL!!!!!!!
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 01:14 PM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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I have to agree with you, don`t scare those people with such a disaster scenerio. Wow and he lives in are county, I wonder what he thinks we`re in for from Dennis today.....Weatherchef
| adogg76 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 01:19 PM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
|
(this post was way off-base. Should be just a few showers traveling down I-95 to Melbourne today. No need in getting these folks upset when there really isn't any need to. Will we get some showers in our area today - of course. Should they prevent anyone from traveling from Jacksonville to Melbourne on I-95 - no.)
Ed Dunham
CFHC Administrator
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 01:19 PM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
|
Latest GOM water vapor loop shows an Upper level low moving northeastward from the Bay of Campeche into the gulf ahead of the Texas trough. A lot of complicated dynamics happening.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 01:20 PM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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currently i do think dennis is in a eyewall replacement cycle, or near the end of one...it's impressive how well he kept his inner structure together last night... hard to tell from the key west as the storm is now exiting the outer 125nm scan.... but in last 1hr 30min the inner wall did change and expand to the next wall it looks like, basically a bigger center now... waiting on the next noaa recon vortext to see if i am right... will see if the eyewall got bigger... hard to tell if its open on west side, the radar beams can't penetrate through from the east wall to see the west wall,beacuse of distance from storm and how strong the east side of center has become this morning..... vis this moring looks good... CDO is getting bigger
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 01:23 PM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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adogg,
There's a huge difference between the weather we (in Brevard) are getting today and what we went through with Frances/Jeanne. Comparing the two is completely off base here. This isn't about tourism, this is about someone asking for an honest appraisal.
You answered with 55 mph winds, I answered with something closer to what our forecast suggests.
I don't have anything else to add here.
Cheers.
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 01:24 PM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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what is the eta on that?dont they travel faster than the hurricane?
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 01:26 PM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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north of key largo is getting hammered right now....
wait
there's a tornado warning now up
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 01:26 PM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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Well, you have tremendous tailwinds in the outer circulation, so if you fly around one you are cooking (it is the jet stream concept).
| kissy |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 01:27 PM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
|
Hi all! I'm new to this site (just found it a couple days ago). I live in Pascagoula, MS. I'm not really knowledgable about storms and how they work but I'm learning. The only other hurricane I've been through is Ivan. Anyway, you guys have given me lots of great information (some I don't understand. HAHA!) So thanks for all the info!
May be a stupid question but it seems most people agree that Dennis will stay to the right of us right?
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 01:30 PM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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so could this spin dennis off course after it has already passed tampa and maybe put in in jax? i mean this thing is huge from tx.
what do you think the eta is for this thing?
| adogg76 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 01:30 PM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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(post removed - almost all of the Florida east coast is not in a watch or warning area)
ED
| adogg76 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 01:34 PM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
keepin it current.....locked in my FAVS now!!!!
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 01:34 PM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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You will hit an occasional squall once you get down to Florida. It will be fast moving. If you are driving a high profile vehicle, you may feel a strong gust or two. Otherwise, the weather in northeast and east central Florida will only be a little worse then afternoon T-storms. I live in Orlando and am not changing my plans. Heading out to run errands and do things. Only a majorl issue along the west Florida coast up to the panhandle.
I would think the fact that NASA left the shuttle on the pad is a pretty good sign that the weather is not going to be too bad in East Central Florida.
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 01:37 PM |
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Re: from ft lauderdale
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Jlauderdale....any idea how strong those winds were last night? They woke me up out of dead sleep! Do you think we should have been under a TS Warning? That's what I thought when all the trees were bent sideways for about 30 minutes last night.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 01:39 PM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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Wow adog76, I guess the sky is falling. Quit being so over dramatic. If the storm does change course [this is no Charley BTW, it is very well behaved on the forecast], there would be plenty of chances for them to get the news. However, there is no reason to change plans to go to Orlando. The storm will be over 300 miles from Orlando.
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 01:39 PM |
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Re: from ft lauderdale
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does anyone know the eta on that upper level from tx?
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 01:40 PM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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The hurricane is in the Gulf. It is about an 8 hour drive to Orlando from NC depending on location/conditions and he will see lighter traffic southbound on I-95 than normal.
I usually enjoy debates, but you're not making any sense. You've stated that the food will be sub-par and you won't get any service. That would be true if and only if we had gone through a major hurricane strike yesterday. We didn't, we haven't and we won't.
Look at the radar - we're on the extreme eastern fringe of what's coming through. The people in areas west are getting it a lot worse than us and even west central FL is unlikely to get worse than tropical storm force conditions.
Now an Orlando Forecast:
Code:
Windy...showers and thundershowers during the morning
will give way to a steadier rain this afternoon...
a rumble of thunder possible. High 87F.
Winds ESE at 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 90%.
Rainfall possibly over one inch.
Or for this evening (also Orlando):
Code:
Windy with occasional rain and a few thundershowers likely.
Low 77F. Winds E at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 80%.
Rainfall possibly over one inch.
I'm sorry, adogg, but I do not subscribe to your spreading of fear over the little rain and wind we'll get. Instead of wishcasting us nasty weather here on the East coast, try praying for those on the west coast who have been and will continue to get hit by worse weather. Then start praying for the folks between NO and Talahassee who WILL get a major hurricane in their backyard...
| LadyStorm |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 01:41 PM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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Granted this family is trying to get to Orlando for a vacation. Not my idea of a vacation driving through heavy rain and tornado watches. I live in North Volusia county and even if we do not get tropical force winds or any of that stuff, we are currently under a wind advisory until 8 tonight, tornado watch until 4. A couple of inches of rain are forcasted, certainly not safe driving conditions. Why not wait until this mess clears? Just practical advice.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 01:42 PM |
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Re: from ft lauderdale
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Quote:Not a clue. Just watching it on the WV loop. It'll be interesting to see if the 11 AM model runs pick it up, though.
does anyone know the eta on that upper level from tx?
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 01:45 PM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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Good morning all from soggy Ft. Myers. Had some really bad feeder bands come through last night. Currently it's raining and the winds are picking up again. I just saw on TWC that Jeff Morrow is at Sanibel Island, and he said many flights out of Southwest Florida International Airport are delayed and some are even cancelled.
Still, things are looking up for us on the west coast, now that Dennis has gone further west than anticipated. I'm breathing much easier this morning, although still paying close attention to where he goes next.
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 01:46 PM |
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Re: from ft lauderdale
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if it catches it. its not looking good for jax and then it dont look good for central and northern florida.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 01:47 PM |
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Re: Dennis appears to be wobbling in place
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Maybe I can't see it with just a 50 minute KW loop, but does Dennis appear to be slowing down and sort of meandering (now drifting west)...I'm wondering if the steering currents are getting weak. Clark had mentioned that this was a possibility the last couple of days
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 01:48 PM |
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Re: from ft lauderdale
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I don't get it. Everyone keeps talking about this going right, but yet every model continues to go west, Except for the BAM, all the models I see are west of the NHC track. All I can say is the boards are now up and its waiting time.
| jr928 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 01:50 PM |
Re: Dennis appears to be wobbling in place
|
look at the water vapor loop. the clouds are now popping up further west of track and moving northerly as opposed to last nights north easterly. like clark said, this may steer dennis more west of the track. biloxi to mobile bay is more likely if this flow remains. I suppose the energy from the plains has yet to hit the trough and that could push it east again later today. what timing!
| adogg76 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 01:51 PM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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All I'm sayin LadyStorm!!!!
Come on down!!!! tornado watch tll 4 huh????
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 01:52 PM |
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Re: Dennis appears to be wobbling in place
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I think when this is all over with...we will find that the NHC forecast tracks were more accurate than usual...the track has stayed with Pensacola for how many days now? At least they get to prepare for the storm with lots of extra time and as long as supplies last.
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 01:53 PM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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hey ya'll....back for just a minute....what's this thing doing....just got on line, and it looks like more west...kinda was worried about that......gotta lot of errands to run...tie the boat down..move stuff off of it...all that..
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 01:56 PM |
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Re: Dennis appears to be wobbling in place
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I just looked at a two hour radar loop out of Key West. Looks like a wobble to the west; but the overall NW motion has been steady over the two hour loop. Looks like it is trying to organize itself a bit more. That would be expected, though.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 01:56 PM |
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Re: from ft lauderdale
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just a side note
Message Date: Jul 09 2005 11:59:58
KEVX WSR-88D IS BACK IN SERVICE AT 1200 UTC.
NOUS64 KMOB 091159
will see how long it last today and sunday
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 01:58 PM |
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Re: Dennis appears to be wobbling in place
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I do feel if there is going to be an error on the track, it will be a west error. I am having a lot of trouble seeing conditions that will cause a more northerly push. I am still thinking MS/AL border. Not all that far off the NHC forecast at this time.
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 01:58 PM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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The weather in Orlando, at the moment, is clody with some ocassional light rain. It's pretty dark, indicating som pretty high cloud tops. So far, we are fine. I do expect som heavier rain today and we need to be vigilat to the tornado threat (as does everyone in the state).
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 01:58 PM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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It has slowed, due to the fact that the eye is getting larger. Very little movement during the last hour. It will resume a NW path, with jogs to the NNW as the models project. But as a cautionary note - I'm viewing this as if I woke up without any knowledge of model projections. There is still much uncertainty as to where he may go, so don't get complacent on the west coast yet; not until he passes your latitude. He is developing quite rapidly again, and as Ed said last nite, he may compress the ridge to the north again as he strengthens. Cheers!!
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 01:59 PM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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A few notes from Atlanta......
1) To the person bringing his family to Orlando, you should be in good shape on I-95 through Georgia, BUT, pay attention to all the road signs and also make a list of the local radio stations along your route to keep up with any changes in direction of Dennis. Routes to MCO to be avoided this weekend would be I-75(as that may be reversed to all northbound when you get ot Cordele) Best bet is to pay attention to the radio and any forecasts later on.
2) If you look at the state of Georgia about 80% of the counties are under a flood watch from Sunday afternoon to Monday afternoon. If Atlanta gets any significant rain from Dennis it could be pretty bad here, especially on the south side of the metro where the average fron Cindy was 4-6" rainfall.
3)GDOT has suspended construction again this weekend through most of the state acccording to 11Alive.com due to possibility of using the roads leading out of Florida into Atlanta as an evacuation route....
4) Was looking at the maps of GA and notice that the front that steered Cindy over us is kinda washing out over central GA, would that have any affect on the track of Dennis?
First bands of clouds from the outflow of Dennis should be reaching us by this afternoon with precip forecast to start falling by late tonight....Take care everyone along the gulf coast!
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 02:10 PM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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Quote:
You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore broadcasting from your backyard....literally!
No kidding!
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 02:13 PM |
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Re: Dennis appears to be wobbling in place
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Quote:
I do feel if there is going to be an error on the track, it will be a west error. I am having a lot of trouble seeing conditions that will cause a more northerly push. I am still thinking MS/AL border. Not all that far off the NHC forecast at this time.
Yikes! I wake up and find all the models are clustering, and a little more to the west, much too close to Pascagoula for my comfort! Guess we'll know a lot more in 12 hours.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 02:15 PM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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That's usually a good sign when Cantore is in your backyard. It's not going to hit there !! LOL
Was that you jumping up and down and waving hands behind the scenes?
| Daytonaman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 02:18 PM |
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Re: Dennis appears to be wobbling in place
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The eye is now visible on long range radar out of Tampa.
| mbfly |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 02:20 PM |
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Re: Dennis appears to be wobbling in place
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Yeah, no kidding ! I noticed that on the models, too ! I wonder if they'll move the NHC predictions over in response ?? God, I don't know what I hate worse...... this waiting, or the actual storm !! Neither one is much fun !
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 02:22 PM |
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it'll be a cat 4-5...and tracking more west
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sorry ya'll...more of a gut feel
| Hurricane Fredrick 1979 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 02:23 PM |
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Re: Indecisive Dennis
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Quote:
That's usually a good sign when Cantore is in your backyard. It's not going to hit there !! LOL
Was that you jumping up and down and waving hands behind the scenes?
TWC has put Mike Slidell here in Mobile and I said where he is there is where it usually gonna hit. But God knows we dont need another Ivan nor Frederick
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 02:26 PM |
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Re: Dennis appears to be wobbling in place
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Quote:
Yeah, no kidding ! I noticed that on the models, too ! I wonder if they'll move the NHC predictions over in response ?? God, I don't know what I hate worse...... this waiting, or the actual storm !! Neither one is much fun !
I don't think so, because the holdout for a FL landfall is the GFS model...however yesterday Gulfport and Biloxi did not have any significant strike probabilities to speak of, and today they do.
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 02:29 PM |
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Re: Dennis appears to be wobbling in place
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Remember, strike probabilities are just that you are within 65 nautical miles from where the storm passes.... as the storm gets closer to making landfall, strike probabilities increase for places where landfall is not expected as well.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 02:31 PM |
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Precautionary Measures
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As of 9 AM this morning. The Misssissippi MDOT, has staged part of the Contraflow for New Orleans traffic.
This is a preliminary stage only.
Signs are set in place to route northbound Interstate 59 as four lanes from the Louisiana State Line to US Hwy 98 just south of Hattiesburg,MS.
When the next stage is reached NO Southbound traffic, on I-59, will be allowed South of Hattiesburg,MS at the US Hwy 98 interchange.
This has never been done before, so it may have a few kinks in it.
US 98 traffic from the AL/ FL area will be routed around Hattiesburg on I-59.
US Hwy 49 traffic from the MS Gulf Coast will be routed thru Hattiesburg toward Jackson.
Very few on and off points are planned. For traffic control purposes.
post copied to the Disaster Forum
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 02:31 PM |
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Re: Dennis appears to be wobbling in place
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Quote:Been toggling between Tampa Bay and Key West radars. Great representations. Looks like the eye has closed now.
The eye is now visible on long range radar out of Tampa.
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 02:32 PM |
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DO NOT RULE OUT New Orleans
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its going more west...than thought...gotta go..more later
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 02:35 PM |
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models and probabilities
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adogg, history or no, there is a ridge axis over florida that is orienting nnw-sse up towards the ohio valley, and a mid-upper trough over the western gulf. the hurricane should move between them. forecast models have been clustered from the panhandle over to the mouth of the mississippi for days, and all of that evidence is the best thing we have to go on. you really ought to tone down the central florida mongering... at least the south florida mongerging has ended.
as far as the probs going higher on the central gulf, margie.. that's because the hurricane is closer. those forecast probs are a function of where the official track is and how many days away the storm is... it's closer now, so higher confidence even though the forecast has only shifted back to the left a little. the forecast track hasn't deviated much for four days now.
HF 1535z09july
| mbfly |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 02:35 PM |
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Re: it'll be a cat 4-5...and tracking more west
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Quote:
sorry ya'll...more of a gut feel
I sure as heck hope you're wrong !!!!!
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 02:39 PM |
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Re: it'll be a cat 4-5...and tracking more west
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well rick, there are about a dozen other 'gut feels' floating around. what makes yours better?
i'll take solid reasoning any day over auguries and wishcasting.
HF 1539z09july
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 02:43 PM |
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Re: it'll be a cat 4-5...and tracking more west
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I think everyone between Ft Walton and Mobile can expect hurricane force winds. Latest Adv. still at 100mph, but with 30 hours to go, and the peak convection times tonight, a fear it getting back to 3 status.
| Daytonaman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 02:44 PM |
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Re: models and probabilities
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Hank, is the ridge on FLEC the reason that the rain bands coming up from the SE on the Melbourne Radar seem to just dry up and die before they reach points north of Melbourne?
| TDW |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 02:44 PM |
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Re: Precautionary Measures
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Hattiesburg traffic was a nightmare during Ivan- I59 and Hwy98 meeting in a bottleneck. I went through there, luckily I knew the back country roads. A lady from Foley told me it took her 11 hours to get to Hwy 49 north of Hattiesburg (rom Foley - normally about 2-1/2 hours).
Let's hope this time it is better. I would hate to see a bunch of people trapped on the Hwy at the height of the storm.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 02:45 PM |
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Re: it'll be a cat 4-5...and tracking more west
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Anyone find this useful?
I'm polishing it up a bit more but it works and is auto updated with dennis tracks
http://flhurricane.com/googlemap.php?2005s4-2004s9-2004s3
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 02:45 PM |
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Re: Precautionary Measures
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Quote:
This has never been done before, so it may have a few kinks in it.
Have you seen the NO contraflow plan??? It's the most insanely designed thing I have ever seen... A few kinks? I think we'll need to call it Contra-slow if we ever try using it. There is absolutely no flexibility on where you get to go...
| turkeyman |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 02:46 PM |
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Re: models and probabilities
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Hank Frank, you're right! I've been patiently reading all the posts over the last three days and even saved to disk, the projected path by the NHC, 4 days ago. Their prediction seems to be coming to fruition. Now the storm threat has passed the Southern sector of Florida, most of those posters have gone elsewhere.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 02:47 PM |
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Re: DO NOT RULE OUT New Orleans
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Quote:
its going more west...than thought...gotta go..more later
Maybe...we'll know in 36 hours (or later?)...I dunno..I've been looking at Dennis' motion the last 2 hours & he is not moving at 14 mph to the NW..if anything a slow drift to the west..he seems to be in search of some steering currents & is wobbling around..perhaps he's doing an eyewall replacement...whatever, this is bad news for the lower keys. While escaping major hurricane force winds, Key West has now had sustained winds over 40 mph with gusts in the 60-70 mph range for well over 12 hrs...storm tides are now up to 5 feet near the airport.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 02:47 PM |
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Re: it'll be a cat 4-5...and tracking more west
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The sun has been out briefly here in Central Florida. It feels like a normal summer day. The radar is showing a nice picturesque hurricane going away from the Western side of the Florida peninsula. I am going to watch what happens to our weather but feel sure that the worst is over for the central Florida area. That is my gut feeling on this one. Summer thunderstorms are no problem and the wind is not high so an umbrella can take care of that. over and out.
| Daytonaman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 02:50 PM |
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Re: it'll be a cat 4-5...and tracking more west
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I really like this but if I had to suggest a change, I would like to only see the balloon points when the storm changes catagories ie from TS to H1. Would be a little less cluttered and probably better able to see the actual track of each storm. Otherwise really great.
| EMS |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 02:51 PM |
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Re: models and probabilities
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Amen. I rarely post but am continuously online reading the wonderful information and ideas that are exchanged here. However, it's one thing to post a view that ends up being wrong (heck, since when are meterologists right? :>), but I deplore folks like adogg who are clearly making stuff up just to scare people.
My best wishes to those on the northern Gulf coast who will be impacted by (another) dangerous hurricane.
| LadyStorm |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 02:52 PM |
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Re: it'll be a cat 4-5...and tracking more west
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Quote:
Anyone find this useful?
I'm polishing it up a bit more but it works and is auto updated with dennis tracks
http://flhurricane.com/googlemap.php?2005s4-2004s9-2004s3
Awesome map, thanks Mike!!!
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 02:53 PM |
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Re: Precautionary Measures
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That was the problem with IVAN. They had all the NO folks going up the only MS central escape route (to Hattiesburg) ,instead of going west to ARK & TX...this caused a huge problem for MS Gulf Coasters trying to leave. Weird, isn't it?
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 02:56 PM |
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Re: Precautionary Measures
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hurricane center says it will not make it back to a major hurricane. A hign 2 is most probable. Still, thats about what the winds were here 35 miles east of Ivans landfall.
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 02:57 PM |
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Re: Precautionary Measures
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But, the thing is, now... it seems, only people coming from I-10 through Slidell can go to Hattiesburg, only people coming from Metairie/Kenner over the Spillway can go on I-10 towards Baton Rouge/Houston, and essentially everyone else (people from Metairie/Kenner that cross the Causeway, people from Slidell, St. Tammany, etc.) have to go the Jackson. And, there's one point, where everyone coming from Slidell has to get on US Hwy-190, the most clogged road in Covington during normal traffic, so those coming from the Causeway can get on 1-12.... It's really weird. What if I wanted to take I-10 west to evacuate.... From where I live, it's not possible.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 02:57 PM |
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Re: models and probabilities
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Quote:
as far as the probs going higher on the central gulf, margie.. that's because the hurricane is closer. those forecast probs are a function of where the official track is and how many days away the storm is... it's closer now, so higher confidence even though the forecast has only shifted back to the left a little. the forecast track hasn't deviated much for four days now.
HF 1535z09july
Thanks Hank. That makes me feel a little better...but even though the forecast hasn't deviated, the models have. But I'll take seasoned expertise over estimates from computer models (see, I'm in IT!).
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 02:57 PM |
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Map
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Quite useful - to use the vernacular, it's pimp!
Any chance of changing the hurricane category graphics? They are a bit on the large side and partially obscure the original tracks (thinking to if you ever wanted to compare 4 or more storms there).
If skeetobite isn't around, I could knock something out quickly. You should have my email address.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 02:57 PM |
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Re: Precautionary Measures
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starting to see the eye now!!!! latest vis
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/data/rmtcrso/129.jpg
| richisurfs |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:00 PM |
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Re: models and probabilities
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HankFrank....Thanks for stepping in as one with a voice of authority and cooling this guy down some. I just don't really understand some people. "Hiding behind the models"? What's that even mean?
| tornado00 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:00 PM |
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Re: Dennis Near Havana, About to Reenter Gulf
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I was out rowing this morning in my scull on Lake Fairview in Orlando. Just going along my merry way when I saw this squall coming across the lake. Of course, I was on the other side of the lake from the dock, so I hauled over there as fast as I could. It caught me, and there were 45 mph winds, which drove the rain into you like needles. HAha, good ole' hurricanes, always a load of fun.
| msmith43 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:00 PM |
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Re: models and probabilities
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(off-topic post removed - please stay on topic. On this site you can hammer the post but not the poster. If you hammer the poster, you get the hammer
).ED
| HumanCookie |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:01 PM |
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Re: it'll be a cat 4-5...and tracking more west
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Good job Mike. I like it.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:02 PM |
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Re: Dennis' Motion (or lack thereof)
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It appears to be getting stronger on radar...Does anyone else see this slowing down of the storm? I said drifting west in a prior post, but it may actually be W-SW
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:03 PM |
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Re: Precautionary Measures
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11 AM advisory is indicating a more NNW path later tonight into tomorrow. Waiting for the discussion and model output.
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:05 PM |
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Re: Dennis' Motion (or lack thereof)
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I thought he appeared a bit south as well...I know there was mention of apossibility of stalling...but I'll admit to TOTALLY not knowing what I'm talking about...just observing & trying to learn.
BTW...like the new map Mike.
| susieq |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:09 PM |
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Re: Dennis' Motion (or lack thereof)
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Do any of you think it could make landfall as a Cat 3 or higher given what we know now?
| adogg76 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:10 PM |
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Re: models and probabilities
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wellll.....weather was forecast before computers.......remember....before pc.....
And I am not trying to instill the last minute fear that mainstream media does.....we ARE under a tornado threat till 4pm.....is it very professional to advise someone to COME to a tornado watchbox?????
Did someone not like my comment on food quality and service, I am sorry....have only been a chef for 10 years........
I make no claim to be a MET or a pro.....I like weather is all.....have since TWC came to our lives!!!
if this is some sort of "secret meterological society", i will gladly stop enjoying the data and information flow on this site....but really, walk outside and tell how beautiful a day it is.....hmmmm
HanKfranK has talked with me before, and I assure you all.......fear is not my game, but if someone asks if they should be driving down 95 set for O-town with all the family in tow.......I say.....wait for the Tornado Watch to expire.....
Is that more palatable.....?
hiding behind a model means one can "pass the buck" on when they are wrong about the forecast.......
Thankfully.....it seems I am wrong in my thoughts...I said it!!! Although there is still a lot of activity well east of the eye.....
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:10 PM |
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radar/sat imagery
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i'm not sure why the nhc dropped their major hurricane progs given how much the storm has improved since midnight. the inner core convection has come back, and the secondary bands are contracting towards the center on the east side of the storm... also squeezing out that subsidence that has been suppressing convection on the western side of the storm.
well, hold that thought. just read the 11am discussion... they're just going conservative, but the forecast is implicit that it will be a fringe major hurricane at landfall. i think they're going a little low... my best bet is that the storm impacts the same general area at the same general intensity as eloise in 1975. i don't see this thing hitting at above 960mb, but not below 945 or so either. next center fix if the pressure is edging 960 i'd be pretty sure this is on cue. official still taking it over near pensacola.. think 60-70 miles east, which isn't all that different, but worse for the pcb area than destin-penscola. the disco comments about some of the models not initializing the features near the western gulf correctly shades the members to the right... sound enough that i'll go with it.
HF 1610z09july
| EaglezFan42 |
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| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:10 PM |
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Re: Dennis' Motion (or lack thereof)
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i see what youse guys are talking about. on the key west radar, it looks like a very slow jog to the west over the past hour
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:11 PM |
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Re: Dennis' Motion (or lack thereof)
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Despite the models and apparent motion, the NHC forecast shifted slightly right... The discussion does a good job of explaining things.
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:13 PM |
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Re: radar/sat imagery
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Latest disco also mentioned that Dennis is over slightly cooler water, but this will transition to warmer water in the next 18 hours. 110 or 115 mph, areas damaged by Ivan still aren't looking too good at this point.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:14 PM |
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Re: radar/sat imagery
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The 11 AM probabilities have increased for Apalachicola and decreased for Pensacola. Interesting to note.
| VolusiaMike |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:16 PM |
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Re: radar/sat imagery
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Guess the PCB area forecast explains why he haven't heard much from Jason lately... he must be one busy individual...
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:17 PM |
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Re: radar/sat imagery
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So...according to the predictions from the 11am discussion, Dennis will go more north than west (ratio of 1 to 2/3). Much, much relieved. It is on a true NW course the last so many hours, which would bring it right into Pascagoula, but if it curves more northward at all, even just a bit, then there shouldn't be any huge concern for MS Gulf Coast.
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:20 PM |
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Re: radar/sat imagery
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with regards to strike probability, you need to look at the second column which is between 8am and 8pm Sunday..landfall...that shows Mobile as the higest probability. Don't rule out MS yet
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:25 PM |
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Re: models and probabilities
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This particular line of discussion stops NOW! In tornado alley all traffic does not come to a complete standstill simply because a Tornado Watch has been issued. There is absolutely nothing wrong with traveling down I-95 to Melbourne (or even over to Orlando) today. Leave it at that.
Ed Dunham
CFHC Administrator
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:29 PM |
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Re: radar/sat imagery
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Looking at the latest visible SAT - Dennis is definitely getting better organized - eye still obscured by clouds though, but it's wrapping good convection around the center
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:29 PM |
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Re: models and probabilities
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URNT12 KNHC 091525
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/14:59:30Z
B. 24 deg 42 min N
083 deg 47 min W
C. 700 mb 2812 m
D. 60 kt
E. 291 deg 005 nm
F. 040 deg 064 kt
G. 299 deg 013 nm
H. 966 mb
I. 13 C/ 3047 m
J. 13 C/ 3050 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. OPEN NW
M. C15
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 1404A DENNIS OB 05
MAX FL WIND 64 KT NW QUAD 14:56:00 Z
MAX FL TEMP _15_ C _294_ / 9__ NM FROM FL CNTR
pressure down one mb
| adogg76 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:29 PM |
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Re: models and probabilities
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Sooooooo......
When can we look forward to some data/info on this next wave in eastern Carib??
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:30 PM |
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Re: radar/sat imagery
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Quote:
with regards to strike probability, you need to look at the second column which is between 8am and 8pm Sunday..landfall...that shows Mobile as the higest probability. Don't rule out MS yet
Oooh - ouch for Mobile if this is true.
Even a Mobile hit would not worry me nearly as much as anything to the west of Pascagoula...a hit right on Mobile Bay would mainly affect Gulf Shores and Foley area. There would be a lot of wind, but for Pascagoula the winds would be blowing offshore and subsequently to the east. The water is much more of an issue than wind for places like Ocean Springs, Gautier, Pascagoula, Moss Point, Mobile, and the strength is so localized around the center of the storm that it really makes a huge difference where the eye hits.
This is the thing that really annoys me about the TV predictions and the things said on TWC. Of course the storm is large and its effects will be felt over a large area. But only a very small area, just to the right of the eye at landfall, is in extreme serious danger (broadly speaking). To the people on the Gulf Coast, that is really the thing that they need to know, the thing that is going to make the huge difference. Are they going to be in that small area? Because if not, usually they can ride out the storm, even if they have some minor flooding. But Pascagoula is surrounded by water; a large part of Jackson Co is estuary. Flooding would be the main concern, especially with the forecast that Dennis will probably not strengthen above CAT 3. So the difference between an eyewall landing to the east, and to the west, is like night and day. Even if the eyewall came over the MS/AL border say by Grand Bay, Pascagoula would get a lot of wind, but that would not be nearly as devastating as an eyewall landing ten miles to the west.
Well, at least, the time of landfall seems like it will coincide with low tide.
| adogg76 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:31 PM |
Re: models and probabilities
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Ummmm......
Does anyone recall how many Tornadoes were spawned as Frances and Jeane exited the CFla are???
Just curious......
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:31 PM |
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Re: it'll be a cat 4-5...and tracking more west
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Quote:That is too cool. Yes, it is useful. How are you automating this...or are you?
Anyone find this useful?
I'm polishing it up a bit more but it works and is auto updated with dennis tracks
http://flhurricane.com/googlemap.php?2005s4-2004s9-2004s3
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:33 PM |
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Re: models and probabilities
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Thanks! At this point, I wouldn't discourage anyone from driving to the Tampa Bay area either.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:34 PM |
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Re: models and probabilities
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just talked to my folks...headed to jacksonville, FL
I-10 from just west of tally to the 1-75 exit is bumper to bumper... once past it (east side of 1-75) on i-10, traffic is flowing smoothly.... they said most eastboud traffic on i-10 is fire trucks w/generators and power trucks heading west....say up to a 100 or so passed so far....
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:35 PM |
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Re: models and probabilities
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Quote:None significant as I recall.
Ummmm......
Does anyone recall how many Tornadoes were spawned as Frances and Jeane exited the CFla are???
Just curious......
| adogg76 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:36 PM |
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Re: models and probabilities
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Am i a wishcaster if I say.....there is a strong feeder band approaching Tampa Bay right now!!!
| VandyBrad |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:36 PM |
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Re: models and probabilities
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Gainesville checking in. First feeder band is finally reaching us. Winds picked up dramatically in the last 2 minutes and it got eerily dark outside. I wouldn't be surprised if we got some strong rain very soon... as a matter of fact it's starting now.
| adogg76 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:37 PM |
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Re: models and probabilities
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yea...tornadoes are generally insignificant events........
WOW!!!!!
Stop the one line posting and put meaning in the posts
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:38 PM |
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Re: models and probabilities
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Quote:In a word? Yes. No stronger than a normal, summer t-storm. I'm going to have a nap now.
Am i a wishcaster if I say.....there is a strong feeder band approaching Tampa Bay right now!!!
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:40 PM |
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Re: models and probabilities
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Knock it off Adogg - that is not relevant. I'm in Melbourne today and the weather is fine here. Lives don't come to a halt when a storm is 600 milrs away. A tornado can occur on any given afternoon in Florida. Back to Dennis, he's wrapping some strong convection back into his center, and I agree with a previous poster that the astern part of the eyewall is obsured. He's still heading slowly NW but hopefully won't stall, since that would allow the ULL to influence it before it has passed north of the Fl penisula. Feel bad for those in the path; certainly pensecola doesn't need another hit. Maybe it will weaken before landfall since the ridging won't be as stong to the north. When's the next blog due Ed? Inquiring minds want to know!!
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:40 PM |
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Re: models and probabilities
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Well here in Tampa we only recieved 1 quick rain band... but it was nothing, Currently the sun has been out for a couple hours through the high clouds. We here in the Tampa Bay area will see the weather go downhill later this afternoon as Dennis gets pushed from the upper low moving NE ahead of the trough over the NW Gulf. I wouldnt be surprised to see him tomorrow jog even NNE before landfall but generally move N tonight. Landfall still near Panama city give or take 50 miles.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:43 PM |
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Re: feeder bands
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I see on the visible SAT that sunshine has broken out over central FL - not a good thing since this extra heating combined with the tropical juice may lead to some supercell Tstorms this afternoon..I wouldn't be surprised to see some tornadic activity from some of the bands today given the extra heating of the atmosphere
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:48 PM |
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Re: feeder bands
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The action moving to north east over Florida might be moving a liittle to quickly for Super Cell developement. Big thunder blasters for sure......Weatherchef
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:50 PM |
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Re: feeder bands
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I meant to say north west over Florida...Sorry......Weatherchef
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:51 PM |
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Re: feeder bands
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here's the eye peaking out
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/data/rmtcrso/134.jpg
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:53 PM |
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Re: Dennis's Motion
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After a slow west drift this morning, Dennis now appears to be moving N-NW...I'm wondering if we're seeing a stair-step motion or a true change in direction from NW to N-NW?
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 03:59 PM |
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Re: Dennis's Motion
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nasty squall line fixing to come through here in pcb from east...lots of thunder... moving pretty fast too.... got the cam ready
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:02 PM |
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Re: models and probabilities
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Interesting topic in the NHC 11:00 Advisory:
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/12. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 06Z AND ESPECIALLY AT 12Z...ALONG WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...INDICATE THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GULF JUST
SOUTH OF LOUISIANA IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN AND LARGER THAN ANY OF THE MODELS WERE INDICATING AT 00Z AND 06Z. THE NOGAPS MODEL DID NOT CAPTURE THIS FEATURE AT ALL...AND IT AND THE GFDN MODELS ARE THE
ONLY MODELS THAT TAKE DENNIS TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF THE 12Z MODELS SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT
GIVEN THAT THE LOW IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AND IS
NOW LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TO WESTERN TENNESSEE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
The funny think about that is that at 11:00am, Dr. Steve Lyons said that the trough and the ridge are causing a squeeze on Dennis...with the HP ridge building back in and the trough digging deeper, resulting in Dennis being the monkey in the middle. He did not believe that the environment further north in the Gulf were conducive to much more intensification because of this "squeeze play".
So, maybe the jogs to the north we are seeing is because the models didn't pick up on the strength of the trough (which is what I have said many times and got berated for! ) and it will trek a bit further east. That being said, I would definitely not expect any kind of dramatic turn to the right with Dennis. The only thing that will happen, perhaps, is to make the weather here a little worse than it's already forecasted to be.
Speaking of our weather: we had some squalls last night, mostly rain, but at about 9:00am, the winds had really picked up here and they woke me up!
We've had a lull the last couple of hours, but from looking at the radar, I expect that to change shortly. So far, so good. I just pray for the people who will be taking the brunt of this hurricane that it will not reintensify too much. Also want you to know that our family has you in its thoughts and prayers.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:03 PM |
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the fun never stops
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98L is up on the wave halfway btw africa and the antilles. the nrl vis shows a near-circular surface low with convection to the west, easterly shear keeping it on that side. it's near 10.5/37.5. shear and ssts just above threshold should keep it's strengthening rate slow, but its development during the next 3 days is looking more likely.
HF 1703z09july
| susieq |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:12 PM |
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Re: the fun never stops
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Does this http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html make you think it's intensifying?
Hunkering down in Gulf Breeze....
| jr928 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:19 PM |
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Re: the fun never stops
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IMHO only,
the low and trough appear to be splattering by the outflow of dennis and it will go further west than pensacola as it is winning the squeeze play. biloxi look out
| cjgsav |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:21 PM |
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Re: the fun never stops
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Could you please tell me where you find images or data on the wave you metioned in your post?
Thank you...
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:28 PM |
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New Main Page Article
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Mike has started a new article - time to move your new posts to the new article.
Cheers,
ED
| susieq |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:33 PM |
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Re: New Main Page Article
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Where? I don't see it.
| BeachBum |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 04:54 PM |
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Re: models and probabilities
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Quote:
... if someone asks if they should be driving down 95 set for O-town with all the family in tow.......I say.....wait for the Tornado Watch to expire.....
Why not come down I-95 and get through the nasty weather faster than staying in NC.?