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3:45pm EDT Dennis has made landfall between Pensacola Beach and Nvarre Beach at 2:25 PM CDT (3:25EDT) as a Category 3 hurricane wind maximum sustained winds of 120mph. 3pm Recon reports the pressure in the storm has risen to 943mb, signifying some weakening just before landfall as the storm moves onshore. Despite that, the storm should still come ashore with winds near 120mph, slightly higher than with Ivan...but not nearly as bad as it could have been or was predicted. Landfall looks to occur within the next hour near Navarre Beach/Escambia Bay, sparing Mobile once again but devestating the Pensacola/Navarre/Ft. Walton Beach area. More from Thomas Giella in the met blogs below and continual updates on the news talkback & in the chat room. 11:00AM Dennis' strengthening phase has stopped, now it probably will remain a category 4, or hopefully stay over the cooler water long enough to be a strong cat 3. Still stronger than Ivan at landfall. Landfall will be closer to Pensacola in the mid afternoon. Hurricane force winds may be felt 150-200 miles inland where it travels through alabama. And gusty conditions even further inland where it tracks. It looks like it will stall out in the Ohio River valley and be a potential flood event there. 9:30AM Dennis has dropped to 930mb, and holding its strength as a strong category 4 system. It has moved more to the north in the last few bits, but expected to jog west a bit later. However, at this moment it's nitpicking. Folks at and directly east of the landfall will see the worst surge. Hurricane force winds may go inland 150-200 miles. Some of the image servers on are image server network have gone down, and we are adjusting around that now. The mobile cam will be up as long as we can run it. Bandwidth costs are going to be astronomical this month, donations are appreciated (see link to left) Also we are looking for a colocation facility for our primary server in the Southeast, looking for reasonable rates in the off season, and reasonalbe with spikes such as during hurricane events. Also those with hosting space and the ability to assign IPs to their hosts for our image server mirror network are requested. Anyone who helps will be featured on the bottom of the page. 7:17AM Overnight Dennis has strengthened into a 145mph hurricane with a pressure of 931mb, less than what Charley was at landfall, and the strongest Hurricane potentially to make landfall in the Gulf in 36 years and the strongest in this area ever recorded, stronger than both Frederick and Ivan. Today it will make landfall, during the Afternoon, leaving people in the dark overnight to get the back side of the hurricane. For those in the forecasted track path, best of luck and God bless you all. Also, the tropical wave in the Atlantic is looking to develop soon, although there is no real way to tell yet if it'll be a player or a fish spinner at the moment. 1:30AM Dennis is back to Category 4 now, with a pressure of 937mb, 1mb less than when it was south of Cuba, so even more strengthening is possible. Original Update According to Recon, Dennis is at or near Category 4 Hurricane Strength once again. It's outflow and central dense overcast near the center look very healthy for a hurricane. Hopefully it will peak soon. The track now takes in slightly west of Pensacola, nearly where Ivan crossed. Deviation to the left or right means a great deal for storm surge behavior, which will likely be more extreme than Ivan, with 12-16 possibly 20 feet of storm surge. Winds will also be an issue, even quite a ways inland. The most extreme of the winds is in a relatively small area around the center of the storm. The storm is forecast to make landfall during the afternoon tomorrow now. Folks along the area are advised to get some sleep now before the brunt start to arrive n the morning. The Mobile cam is recording now, the link is below. More will come tomorrow. The chat link on the left is open throughout the event. Site Note News talkbacks are now in lockdown mode, which means that unregistered users cannot reply. You can still post in the other forums besides talkbacks. This enables us to moderate a lot better. I hate doing this, but I can see obvious signs of "storm stress" on a few individuals. We'll make it open again as soon as it calms down. Registration is open for anyone, you can register Using this link. Then you will be able to reply here. Hopefully this will only last a short time. Event Related Links Emergency Management Gulf Coast Storm Alert Network FloridaDisaster.org - Florida Emergency Management Monroe County/Florida Keys, Panhandle Coastal Counties West to East Escambia County, FL, Santa Rosa, County, Okaloosa County, FL, Walton County, FL, Bay County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Franklin County, FL Mississippi Emergency Management Agency (MEMA) http://www.msema.org/index.htm Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop Tampa Bay, FL Long Range Radar Miami, FL Long Range Radar Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar Tallahassee, FL Long Range Radar Mobile, AL Long Range Radar Eglin AFB Radar Dennis MODIS Ultra High Resolution Dennis Satellite Images Google Map Plot of dennis along with Ivan High Speed Storm Relative Floater - RAMSDIS ONLINE Animated Model Plot of Dennis Model Plot Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District of Dennis Dennis Spaghetti Model from boatus Weather Underground Model Plots for Dennis Quikskat Image of Dennis Color Sat of Dennis Floater Satellite (Visible) of Dennis with Storm Track Overlays (Animated) RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Dennis 98L/Area in Central Atlantic Animated Model Plot of 98L Webcams, Video, Audio Mark Sudduth's at coastal Alabama again ready to move east or west, he has a mobile observation tower he'll be leaving along the coast when Dennis arrives - Hurricane Trak/Mark Suddth Car & Tower Cam - Live Video Stream from Mark's HIRT Tahoe HIRT Tower On the coast in Perdido Key: Conditions and Webcam Hurricane Now - Video reports from former CNN hurrican reporter Jeff Flock - Jeff Flock Live Stream! Hurricane City and Jim Williams do audio shows nightly around 8PM Weathervine.com Storm Chasing Joseph Johnston's Mobile Bay Webcam - Mobile Bay webcam recording will being the AM of the 10th here WKRG 5 in Mobile/Pensacola i streaming live coverage WPMI Channel 15 from Mobile Alabama - Streaming Video 10PM Pensacola Beach Cam 2 Panama City/Destin webcams WJHG 7 the NBC Affiliate in Panama City Beach, FL . Police Scanner Streams Mobile Police - Mobile, AL Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations): Tampa, Mobile Bay, New Orleans, Key West, Tallahassee. Melbourne |
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Good luck everyone. At least this will be the last "Dennis" ever. |
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Sleep will be very difficult. |
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Man! Pensicola bridge will be like a pancake again. |
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Quote: Shan, based on the newest Advisory I would get out now. Before traffic gets too bad. You are in a very low place. Surge would be terrible if the eye were to come in west of Bayou La Batre'. |
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Teal, I'm watching this like a hawk.... I posted several days ago I felt this could be the second coming of Fredrick, but only stronger.... looks that might be coming to fruition.... Jav, come on by, I'll be up all night and make my decision as to if we'll leave early in the am... got several options on where we can go... still got time... Just want this thing to keep east of me.. ... Fredrick was not all that bad for Biloxi and I think the eye went near the MS/AL line... this could very well happen again... I hope it doesn't get any closer than Pascagoula.... (sorry about the repost but I wanted teal and jav to get the message) |
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Well One thing I think we can rule out is that this storm will be a CAT 5. I dont see that much strenghting where winds will be up to 156. |
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Kissy! Are you going to try to leave now? What's going on there - is everyone asleep or are things happening now like letting people know local evacuation shelters like schools? Do you think people will try to get up 63 to Hattiesburg now? If the storm tracks further west that'll flood real early, only leaving I-10 to go east or west. Listen I have to leave my friend's house and go home but I'll come back on in a half hour and maybe I can give you the phone numbers of my mom and other brother in Moss Point. I wonder if they should consider evac'ing now. By 6 or 7 am the winds will be too high to leave. My brother with the Sheriff's dept will be on duty starting at 2am this morning until it is over...his wife will be dispatching. Neither of them will be home, they have to stay and work. I don't know if I'll be able to get hold of him because he'll be pretty busy. |
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Dan, I have the center at 27.00N and 85.62 West.... the past two hours Dennis has gone .38 degrees N and .40 degrees W... pretty much NW by my book, sure would like to see some more northerly component.... |
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We're a few miles from the water and in a pretty high place. We do have a few businesses around Shell Belt Rd. and Cindy put over two feet of water in them. If I were in that area, I'd be gone! |
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small eye....15 nautical miles wide... Ivan devastated Pensacola....just tore it up.... a cat 5....don't even wanna think about it.. |
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Ivan came in from the west to east Dennis is coming in from east to west.... no right hook to spare us this time |
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Quote: Frank, I couldn't help but notice that. I wish it were different for everyone. Be ready. I'm not ruling out hazardous conditions at daybreak. We just clouded over here in Hattiesburg. About 30 minutes ago. Good luck to all. I'll see all of you in the morning. |
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NO Frank..no northerly component...12 miles east of Pensacola in Gulf Breeze...please no north component! |
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Good night guys. I'm praying for everyone on the Gulf Coast. Please make your preparations and stay safe. I said in a previous thread and I'll repeat it here. Things can be replaced, your human life can not be replaced. Make sure you are in a secure place to ride this one out. See you on the other side. |
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Dennis a Cat 4 again as of 1AM. |
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pcola, I feel your pain, you guys have gone through more than most should ever have to deal with, its going to go where it wants... we all watch in amazement, and times like this, fear.... what ever happens, I just want to be on that west side.... even at its present track, if it holds, you guys will take a beating in the NE quad... good luck to you and all who will face this beast tomorrow..... |
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1m EDT update - 135 MPH winds - CAT 4 |
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Dennis now Cat 4...135mph winds |
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The 1am advisory brings Dennis back to a Cat 4 with 135 mph winds and a central pressure of 937 mb (27.67). This is 1mb lower than when Dennis was south of Cuba with 150 mph winds. I think by 5 am we may be looking at a 150 mph hurricane again..... This is becoming a true nightmare.... --Lou |
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It should be starting to make a more northerly turn now. It has followed the same trajectory for about 24 hours now which would make it hit just to the right of Biloxi without a turn. |
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We are going to weather it out. We're as prepared as we can be with all the windows boarded and a generator ready to go! Praying for everyone that will be in the path of this one! Off to bed tonight, be backin the AM |
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Quote: Shan No matter where you at down in Batre you need to get to high grounds. I know the main St will be under water. I use to live above the old fire station down there and I know what a little thunder boomer will do. And this aint no thunder boomer. |
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Lost at the end of the last thread................ A data point for everyone north, south, east, and west of Oviedo FL in Seminole County: It's eerie quiet here... We're located just north of the high school for those familiar with the area. We're near the top of the "L" in "Orlando" for those watching the National Weather Service Radar Image from Tampa Bay. We had one storm band before dusk that barely rated as a normal daily rain. No lightning, no real wind. At this moment, it's cool, damp, and silent outside. It's been overcast all day, but the northwestward skittering low clouds are now gone as well. We've had no significant weather events here during this regional crisis. Meanwhile, tropical storm events have been reported within twenty miles of here. It reminds me of the aftermath of Charley, when I was dealing with devastation at my house, and my boss who lived five miles away had no damage at all and wondered why I hadn't worked the weekend! This all meets the higher end of my expectations, because we have not yet repaired all of the damage from Charley. We still have blue tarps over the garage and the southeast side of the house, and probably won't be finished for several more months. Our house is fragile, but it survived Francis and Jeanne without additional damage. Unfortunately, the blue tarps are aging... There are some bands approaching from the south, and I just hope they continue to spare us. Thanks to everyone on this board for the spirited discussions that have kept Leslee and me sane during Charley, Francis, Jeanne, and Dennis. For us, FLHurricane.com is one of the most useful places on the Internet. Unlike most Internet blogs, this one has maintained an extraordinary signal to noise ratio! Regards, Larry |
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The local NW service here in Pcola says the storm could track further west. Stay alert in MS |
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Weather is windy here on the S E Coast, and I'm feeling a lot of concern and empathy for you folks in the cone. This is not going to be fun for any of you. Here's wishing you all the best. |
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This is epic. |
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My own Prediction is that I see it going to at least 145 MPH by 5AM.. After that I see it going into a lil colder water and losing some punch.. Hitting landfall at 125-130 MPH. |
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Anyone else notice the complete surrounding of the eye by the color purple in the infrared? Is that a sign that the center is strengthing and deep? To everyone in the path, you're in our prayers. Just as I wouldn't wish last season on the East coast, I wouldn't wish Dennis on you folks. Be safe and let us know what's going on. |
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Good luck to all in the path of Dennis, and I hope you all stay safe. There's not much else I can say at this point. Whether the landfall occurs at Pensacola further west, this storm looks to do a tremendous amount of damage. Best of wishes to everyone in its path. |
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Nate, I hope you're correct, but the pro's are saying that there's nothing in the near future that will weaken it, unless it slows down itself, then it would succomb to the cooler waters, but not at 14mph. No? |
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The water south of Pcola and Mobile is a bit cooler..also the hurricane winds only extend 40 miles from the center...tight storm,...I am thankful it will hit during the day unlike Ivan...night storms are very frigtening.. |
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Quote: ouch!!!! |
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Looks like another squall is coming through the metro Orlando area. If this one is anything like the one earlier tonight, it could be quite intense. Not that this will even compare to what will happen NW of us tomorrow. Interesting to watch, nontheless. |
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remember three years ago watching lili get up to cat 4 in the gulf, then spin down dramatically before hitting louisiana? that sort of thing can always happen.. there are lots of unexpected internal changes a hurricane can undergo and lose a lot of its punch. i personally still think it will be a cat 3 at landfall. already too far west for my central panhandle idea to work... over between biloxi and pensacola the greatest danger exists now. just say a prayer that it finds some way to spin down in the next 18 hrs or so. it's happened before, it can happen again. elsewhere.. 98L's organization and convection are improving some. the system is now near 40w.. it's going to be a depression inside of 48hrs, more likely closer to 24. i'm betting this one will threaten the northeastern caribbean around wednesday/thursday. the new emergent wave has some model support too. got a feeling that the july net tropical cyclone activity is going to be well above whatever the previous record was. as far as that seventeen named storms i took a stab at back in the fall.. jiminy christmas, i thought it possible, but i'm still slack-jawed at the way things are going so far this season. HF 0637z10july |
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when viewiew the latest IR sat views you begin to notice the dreaded buzz saw formation of the storm, which is a true indicator that this is a very serious and powerful force |
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Quote: i noticed that....although the most recent shot shows a change. maybe Dennis has peaked out? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/IR4/20.jpg |
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Anyone have a good Lightning Data links for this area? Thanks |
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we can only hope..... |
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Just starting to get squally again southeast Orlando too...the one earlier around 7 pm reminded me all too well of last August. Makes me sick to my stomach to think about what the folks North of here will go through again! We are very lucky .............this time! Please take Care all those north of here. PS Found this site after Charley ravaged my home and our City Beautiful last year and just before we were hit with Francis-thanks to everyone who visits here it has been a great help and source along with NHC, etc. of information during these trying times. |
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My guess is that it is undergoing an EWRC. That could be very bad news and could mean it would make landfall at the peak of its power tomorrow. |
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Here's what I don't get. I went to bed after I read the discussion and didn't wait for the new 11p track forcast because the discussion said: "THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY." I wake up, and see the track forecast shifted: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205821.shtml?3day ... which although it is not shifted much, there is still a western shift. So, why say there is no change when you clearly have a change? |
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When are the new reports expected to circulate? |
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Just went thru it here in Belle Isle by MCO Airport.. heavy rains for about 15 - 20 minutes, some high winds but I would guess not much higher than 40 mph.. Saw this in the discussion tonight: "E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS COMBINING WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS WEST TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM GUADELOUPE AND N-CENTRAL VENEZUELA BETWEEN 60W-66W." Is this another system working up a head? |
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I've used this site before. Pretty good... Lightning Strikes |
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Thanks |
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Ha ha, Did someone leave out something in the code when they refreshed the site????? |
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The site just went all screwy about 10 min ago. What's going on? I rebooted my PC just in case..no change. Formatting is all screwed up. |
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OK. I rebooted my laptop.. I thought it was mycomputer. |
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Nate did that help? Because I did the same thing and no change. |
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Maybe someone (John?) shouldn't have bragged about being able to even survive a slashdotting.... In all seriousness, though, I'm sacking it in tonight, and even though I can't call myself terribly religious, I will say a quick prayer for those in the path of Dennis. We made it through 3 dingers last year in Lakeland, and we were just winged. I can't even imagine what's ahead in the next 16 hours. Good luck to all and God bless. |
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Kissy I'm posting this just in case you need the info. If Dennis tracks to the west of you, please review the civil defense maps to find an area near you that you can go to ride out the storm surge. Here is the link: http://www.ms.gov/frameset.jsp?URL=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.msema.org%2Findex.htm Page down and click on Evacuation Maps Jackson Co, then on that new page, at the bottom, maps for both Jackson Co. and Pascagoula. Then, on the same page, under links, go to Hurricane Evacuation Study, then click on Mississippi study, go down to the Surge Maps paragraph, click on MAPS button, this will bring you to maps for 1) storm surge, 2) evacuation zone, and 3) evacuation route maps in PDF format which means you'll be able to zoom in. Note: Worst case - eye to the west - 20 ft storm surge: In the western part of the co, it appears that the land right around the I-10 route is above even a CAT 5 storm surge, but only right near the I-10. All south of I-10 will be submerged, and right at the county line, a line of land north of I-10 will be submerged. No buildings there however, just forest for the most part. In the center part of the county, I-10 will be over submerged land and may not be above water. In the eastern part of the county, all the land around I-10 will be submerged, even with only a Cat 2. With a CAT 4 storm surge of 20 ft, ALL of Pascagoula will be submerged. There will be no safe place to go. With CAT 3, very little ground will not be under water, a couple blocks here and there. If the storm tracks east of you, then you only have to worry about high winds (and we are talking 140mph sustained winds if MOB is hit directly). Be safe. |
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As things go, it's not horribly bad here in Tallahassee--and am I ever praying that it stays at just being rain and some wind. Still, my significant other has been running around getting sandbags as one of our friends' apartments is promising to flood (water was already at her patio slab when we went to get her and her cats out of there) and there's even more rain to come. For those more directly in the path of this monster, my prayers are with you. |
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nope, didnt help.. |
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OK so do you think this is a function of the web site and is happening to everyone? I am getting for the home page no photos, just the header, then below it everything else grey, all the stuff that was on the LH side is in the center, by itself, everything grey. If there is someone who is seeing the web site with no problems can you please post. Is there a moderator that can be notified if this is a problem for everyone? |
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No, I think that when someone updated data on the website, they forgot to enter some code or entered it incorrectly. Everyone is seeing the same thing. But that's just me |
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It's not you. Maybe the server w/ graphics is down. Or is having a bandwidth problem. |
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It's the website. The stylesheet (a file that controls some fonts and images) path in the header code is incorrect. It looks like it needs to point to http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/stylesheets/flhurricane.css and http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/stylesheets/flhurricaneprinter.css . So as to keep this thread on topic, a mod can PM me if you need more info. |
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Yup, it's everyone. Site is probably overloaded or the server could have been zapped. It happens during the big storms sometimes. Mike and the rest of the Admins are on it already, no doubt. |
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What's up with the new update? Guess it's comming out at 4am. |
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I heard back from my brother in Pascagoula MS who just went on duty (Sherrif's Dept) at 2am for the storm. I wanted to stay up to let him know all the news about the new track and intensity. He'll be on duty probably at least through Mon am with no relief. He said it's already starting to get windy there. One of the things he said was that many gas stations in Pascagoula are out of gas. I also heard this was a problem eariler with folks trying to get out of Gulf Shores AL area and that the civil defense folks were trying to get some gas down there. Scary. I also heard not very many evacuated. My brother said actually that a mandatory evac was issued Friday evening along with a curfew but Kissy said she hadn't heard that. I don't think it got out to everyone, somehow. At the time there was nothing on the TV except Pensacola, FL, etc. with a storm track to hit there, so I don't think many in MS thought an evac was necessary. I also heard not all evacuated from MOB, I think there are around a half million people and I don't think it would have been possible to evac everyone. Actually the gulf coast is so populated that is the case pretty much everywhere. Well I'll get a little sleep and catch you all tomorrow. |
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3am forcast/advisory update is out. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/100240.shtml |
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145 MPH winds... HOLY SMOKES!!! |
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Yes and the pressure dropped an additional 3mb to 934...it may still be strengthening. OK am really going to go to sleep now - had intended to until I realized the 3am advisory would be out. |
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site is experiencing some problems. not sure what's up, but it appears to be cosmetic only. as long as we can all keep communicating, everything's o.k. if not peachy. the latest public advisory says the winds are 145mph in the text body and then concludes that they're 140mph. minor inconsistency when you think about it... the winds are just really freakin' strong. the eye hitting just west of either mobile or pensacola are the worse case scenarios i can see here. not to take anything away from pascagoula or biloxi... but the cities on the large bays are at a higher risk for surge, and have more property that can be affected (think most people will get out of dodge). lets just hope an eyewall replacement cycle spins dennis down before it comes ashore tomorrow. lili went from 4 down to 2 in about 12 hrs... it can happen. i don't see anything quite that dramatic happening here.. but still think it can drop to 3 before coming ashore. no way to be certain, but i think dennis is just about done strengthening... the waters it's over shouldn't support much more intensification. don't see the makings of an erc yet, unfortunately. there's still time. HF 0818z10july |
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They fix the typo..it's officaly 145MPH. There has been alot of funny little typos this storm. They called Dennis, "Danny" a couple of releases ago. On the site problems, it look like it was cause by alot of refresh at the same time tonight that knocked the page into print mode. Anyway, I hope everyone who wakes up tomorrow morning around 6AM know that if they are going WILL GO. This isn't the time to play "Stay or Go". Time is up and your plywood house isn't safe anymore. |
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Small light bulbs - 7 1/2 watts; with common type screw-in bases can be used after you shut everything else down in an orderly fashion. My APC 1400 backup gives me power for such a small load almost indefinitely. A weather radio from "The Shack" uses only 5W and so do many portable radios. My thoughts and prayers, from the "Gold Coast", go out to all. Even down here, my power was out 2-3 times starting a little before 11PM Friday night(4 hour outage!). FPL is still trimming trees according to usual schedule and didn't expect such an early onset of this tropical season. Who did? If the activity continues at this rate, the predictions of Dr. Gray and his Colorado associates my be more Pollyannaish than Cassandra like. I'm sure that I'll get mine before this dreadful season ends. As we used to say in Brooklyn; "Wait 'til next year!" |
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7:57 Zulu 932 MB 8 mile circular eye... 27.36N 86.00W Good luck people -Mark |
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Nice breeze here in Mobile NNE@11 G21. |
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What millibar pressure is the the threshold between cat 4 and 5 generally? |
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Quote: It really depends on the relative pressures around the storm... but as a general rule of thumb, 925ish would have a shot at having cat 5 winds.... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html I use that chart as a method of rule of thumb pressures vs wind velocity... -Mark (IANAM, so what I say is not to be taken as anything more than an enthusiast) |
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Thanks for the info. At this point, what are the chances that Dennis can arrive as a cat 5? I've heard about weakening in the north gulf of mexico, I've heard about storms not being able to reorganize and strenghen after a long land transverse--it seems that the forecasters are a bit "out to sea." Any insights as to intensity at landfall? |
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Quote: I wouldn't say they're 'out to sea', Hurricane intensity is one of the most difficult things to project, and really, they've warned people for a while that this storm was not going to be nice. But as far as intensity goes, The pressure has to start levelling off, 5am sat:972mb 11am sat: 967mb 5pm sat: 955mb 11pm sat: 941mb 5am sun: 932mb 40mb drop in 24 hours I keep saying, 'it can't keep strengthening' but at this point, it's making it's own environment, the only thing that will slow it down in the next 12 hours are ERC and ssts. It's moving to fast to really upwell too much water, and it's still a very small storm. 145mph winds at the 4am cdt advisory... take this for what it's worth and I'm gritting my teeth as I say this, peak at 150, landfall at 140, either way, it's going to be very unfun for anyone in the path. -Mark |
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Has anyone seen the 5AM NHC Discussion? It's listed on their main page, but when you open it up, it is last night's discussion.... |
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Hurricane Dennis Discussion Number 24 Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 10, 2005 Data from the Air Force hurricane hunters indicate that the maximum winds in Dennis have increased to near 125 kt. This is based on maximum 700 mb flight level winds of 139 and 140 kt from a couple of passes through the northeast eyewall. Dennis may undergo an eyewall replacement cycle prior to landfall...which usually results in some fluctuations in intensity. Water vapor imagery does not suggest any environmental mid- to upper-level features that could weaken the hurricane before landfall... however the waters over the northeast Gulf coastal areas are of somewhat lower oceanic heat content...which should limit significant additional strengthening. Dennis is forecast to make landfall as a category four hurricane. Track forecast reasoning is basically the same as before. The hurricane is now moving north-northwetward in the steering flow between a mid-level high to its east and a mid-level trough near the northwest Gulf Coast. This general motion should continue through landfall. The official forecast track is similar to the previous one and is quite close to the dynamical model consensus and to the Florida State University superensemble track. Predicted storm surge heights have been adjusted upward due to the increased intensity of the hurricane. Forecaster Pasch forecast positions and Max winds initial 10/0900z 27.8n 86.1w 125 kt 12hr VT 10/1800z 29.6n 87.4w 125 kt 24hr VT 11/0600z 32.0n 89.0w 65 kt...inland 36hr VT 11/1800z 34.5n 90.0w 35 kt...inland 48hr VT 12/0600z 36.5n 90.0w 30 kt...inland 72hr VT 13/0600z 38.0n 88.5w 25 kt...inland 96hr VT 14/0600z 38.5n 86.5w 20 kt...remnant low 120hr VT 15/0600z 38.5n 84.5w 20 kt...remnant low $$ |
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Quote: Category is determined by the Maximum Sustained wind. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.shtml |
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.SHORT TERM...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE 4 AM TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY TRACK...WITH A NORTHWEST MOTION TOWARD THE MOBILE/PENSACOLA AREA. A MAJOR LANDFALLING HURRICANE APPEARS IMMINENT...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT AREA REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE PATH OVERNIGHT. IF DENNIS DOES NOT WEAKEN BEFORE LANDFALL...THIS IS GOING TO BE A VERY LIFE-THREATENING...EXTREMELY DAMAGING EVENT. CATEGORY 4 HURRICANES PRODUCE MAJOR DAMAGE TO ALL STRUCTURES. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS FROM OUR OFFICE...AS WELL AS THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/MOB/AFDMOB.0507101045 |
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Looks to have jogged much more northerly over the past few hours. While this wouldn't have meant much yesterday, it is huge today. I still look for a landfall east of Pcola. |
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For the first time in days I have to say that the nhc track may be off.. Radar here shows Dennis on almost a due north coarse, and last 2 positions confirm it. This always seems to happen to storms at the northern gulf coast. Being in Pcola, a landfall east may be our saving grace. TV video already shows waves over the Pensacola fishing pier..9 hours before landfall. I wish nobody had to endure this but it would make me brearhe easier if this trend continues. They have already closed the I-10 bridge...(the one they fixed after Ivan) |
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Latest Recon has pressure down 1mb to 931mb. |
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Sorry for the website layout issues, one of the image servers croaked so it lost that for a bit. It's rerouted to the others now, so it should be showing properly again. Also the Mobile webcam recorder display is having issue, but the images themselves are being stored. Adjusting image server network around to handle that. image 1 is down, image3 and image6 are having issues, image 2 is down, so it's a bit crazy. Trying to get things back up. |
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Please keep us updated as long as you can. My parents are in Marianna and I chose not to go up there due to the forecasts at the time. PM me if you can with any news. I called my parents this morning and they were unaware that the storm had increased in intensity. There may be even more they are not aware of. I have decided to go in afterwards if possible to take them anything they need. Thanks in advance. |
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Good Morning all. Things are picking up here in PC. I expect to lose power shortly. And yes...I think a slight wobble/drift to the north is taking place. We will see. |
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I'm seeing the trends on radar and satellite as well Pcola, but obviously it doesn't offer those of us in the Fort Walton Beach area much to smile about. I don't like what I see at the moment. |
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The roads are clear in Hattiesburg,MS as of 6 AM CDT. Traffic is increasing from the AL/ FL areas, but was very light then. No traffic per se from Gulfport or New Orleans. If you need to Leave. Please Do So Now. Before the traffic get heavy. |
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This is NOT what I wanted to wake up and see this morning !!! I rode out Frederick, but didn't want to do it again !! Wish me luck |
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Here's the latest Hurricane Local Statements from the NWS Offices. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/index_hls4.shtml |
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My prayers are with all who are in the path of this storm. May your only discomfort be the wait. |
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SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 600 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 edited 600 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 .NOW... ...THE CENTER OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DENNIS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DOWNTOWN MOBILE... ...ALL HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION AND EVACUATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY 9 AM. THROUGH 8 AM...RAIN SQUALLS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THESE BANDS BANDS ARE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...AND THEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH WITH THE STRONGER SQUALLS LIKELY...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. ADDITIONAL BANDS OF RAIN SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING...EACH BAND WITH STRONGER WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS AS HURRICANE DENNIS APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH AND GREATER WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO COASTAL BALDWIN AND ESCAMBIA COUNTY FLORIDA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SPREADING TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL GET PROGRESSIVELY WORSE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS HURRICANE DENNIS APPROACHES THE AREA...LANDFALL OF THE CENTER OF DENNIS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FLORIDA...ALABAMA LINE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE IS BECOMING INCREASING LIKELY ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE DENNIS MAKES LANDFALL...THIS WILL INCLUDE AREAS FROM GULF SHORES TO PENSACOLA. IF YOU HAVE NOT EVACUATED FROM A COASTAL ZONE...PLEASE DO SO IMMEDIATELY. A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 2 PM FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF TORNADOES WILL BE IN THE OUTER RAIN BANDS AND CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE...WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL TELEVISION AND RADIO FOR FURTHER UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON THIS VERY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING WEATHER SITUATION |
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Well, Pensacola is a ghost town. We're all ready and hunkered down. Pray for us. It's going to be a LONG day. I'm really worried about the aftermath. This is stronger than Ivan. Unbelieveable for early July! |
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The Mobile local CBS station has tapped in to the city's public safety cameras. I am amazed there is still a good bit of traffic on the roads. I hope they all get where they're going soon. |
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Just think SirCane, over four months of hurricane season to go for all of us on the Emerald Coast... I was more than a little surprised to hear that the Pensacola Civic Center was serving as a shelter again. It didn't fare so well during Ivan as I recall, and this storm may be exponentially worse for Escambia county. |
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A definite jump to the north just happend. I hope it's not just a wobble. |
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First vis satellite pic is showing a very intense core. Prayers for you who are in the path. |
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The only good thing to come out of this is that maybe the cane will take the heat out of the Gulf so there will not be a repeat of this in this season. Then we will only have to worry about the east coast for the rest of the season. |
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MAX FL WIND 131 KT NE QUAD 11:40:30 Z Pressure again down 1 mb...to 930mb. Eye 8 nautical miles in diameter. The wind listed is the Flight Level Wind. |
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If I recall, the main problem with the Civic Center was the air conditioners on the roof that tore off. I think they have been reenforced when they were replaced. However, I would not want to ride out a Cat 4 in a building with that profille. I am not sure how well it will hold up. Granted, I do not know how many buildings there are in the area that can withstand a direct hit by this storm. |
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Quote: Any reprieve would only be for a week or two. We are still very close to peak heating. By August, water temps will likely be back to where they were. |
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weather channel is calling this a northward track and not wobble? what are mets saying? |
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I hate to say it...believe me, I really hate to say it...but recent radar and satellite trends seem to point to a landfall somewhere between Gulf Breeze and Destin. |
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I am not a met and have not seen TWC but by radar it appears to be a north mvt. Some prior forecast thinking may verify after all. |
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Quote: It's almost like they changed the forecast path 'by mistake' at 5AM EDT. I mean, the discussion said there was no change, and it doesn't look like there should have been a change... but, it shifted west some. I really don't understand why they did that. |
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but cantore is there , it never hits him |
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JK just said it is not a wobble but a true north mvt. Will it last is the question. |
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Looks bad with that movement for Pensacola. Unbelieveable. |
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It is looking like it is not a wobble but a true turn to the north. May spare Pensacola the brunt. However, Navarre to east of Destin may be the bullseye if this movement continues. Hopefully, everyone has evacuted from these areas. This is going to destroy the roads into and out of many of these areas as the ocean washes out parts of the barrier islands. This is not a storm to be riding out. |
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Still moving NNW....there was a wobble due north, but it appears to be starting another wobble back nw in the last few radar frames. Still think landfall is further east than forecast..probably around Ft Walton/Destin. |
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Quote: Definite northerly movement the last 2 hours. Take a look at the color infared - the CDO on the west side of the storm is narrowing and the cloud shield is becoming asymmetrical. A sure sign of upper level W-SW shearing. This is good and bad news. Good in that it may start to weaken him a little, bad in that it may result in a consistent N or perhaps even a N-NE movement to the coast. Looks bad between Ft Walton Bch and Panama City. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html |
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Not wishing this on anyone; but a best case scenario might be if the center can go in around Grayton Beach or Seagrove Beach. This area would leave the least population and buldings at risk to the core of the storm. Damage would still be severe and Panama City would be hit pretty hard. No really good place for this monster to go except away. |
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I agree, just ever so slightly moving back NNW. |
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morning all.... I still think it has a slight westerly component to the motion and not due north, not looking at the latest radar loops.... my opinion only.... looks to be heading directly to Pensacola... what side of the eye wall it gets yet to be determined.... eye wall on radar looks to be about 10 miles or so in diameter, which is where the 145 miles per hour winds would be.... not a very good place to be so if you have any change of being in it, and you can leave, I'd highly recommend it .... or you better be in a damn strong building or house... tides at Biloxi look to be about normal, however, we have these glassy two foot waves breaking.... this only occurs with an approaching strong cane off to our SE.... good luck to all ..... |
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Hi gang, Long time...no see.. Just watching, waiting, and reading from over here in Tallahassee..where it is just overcast and rainy. Have to say, been waiting for the Cantore comments .<g> Thank you!!! To everyone closer to this monster.... my heart, my prayers and my best wishes are with you. Take care, because I am going to be counting noses when all this is over.. Dee, the StormKrone |
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Wanted to add my concerns and prayers for all who have been and will be effected by Dennis. Any good thing is often bad for someone. If Dennis is moving North then some of the larger Population centers still recovering from Ivan could be spared. I know that does not say much for Ft Walton, Destin and other areas East. Again my prayers to you all. |
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Good morning everyone, I hope all got some sleep because this could be a bumpy day... I have to agree with some of the posters that the movement is more northerly rather than a NNW movement....But if Dennis continues a Northerly track and stays that course inland, there's gonna be a flurry of changing watches and warnings further inland from Montgomery to Atlanta. One thing I'm wondering, what time is this monster expected to make landfall and how close to high tide is it supposed to hit? Again it bears repeating, if you are to the east of the eye, it is imperative to still watch this storm like a hawk as the right front quadrant of the storm is the most dangerous and causes possible tornadoes and heavy rains... Also tidal flooding in Madiera Beach, FL..... God Speed to everyone in PCB to Moblie and everyone in the path.... |
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it still has time to do the ERC thing and spin down to manageable levels. intensity changes with these strong ones are unpredictable... it would be a lot nicer to see the winds drop 20 mph before landfall. that 1mb pressure fall since the last advisory suggests that it's near the upper threshold it can get to... hopefully the only thing that dennis can do from here is weaken. i'm not wanting to see that perpendicular impact effect that accelerates the winds and tightens the core that joe b talks about. not at all. God forbid that the core moves over pensacola. lots more to break there than port charlotte. we'll probably have an emily tomorrow, in other news. misery loves company. HF 1336z10july |
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there goes cantore again,just on live, warning ms and al that the sky will fall upon landfall, he's more doomsday than the accuweather guy joe b. nhc has surprised me and nailed this forcast thus far, I'm sticking with them and agree with the soon to see west nw wobble back |
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My thoughts and prayers are with everyone in this area. For my job, I handle computer systems in my companies offices up in the Florida Panhandle. I have been there after almost all of the major hurricanes since Erin to hit the area. Opal and Ivan were the worst I had seen. I fear this storm may push past them. Fortunately, I just about everyone I know has evacuated to either Tallahassee or Jacksonville. |
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is this new data ? URNT12 KNHC 101207 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE A. 10/11:43:00Z B. 28 deg 23 min N 086 deg 18 min W C. 700 mb 2515 m D. NA kt E. NA deg nm F. 134 deg 131 kt G. 49 deg 009 nm H. EXTRAP 930 mb I. 9 C/ 3046 m J. 21 C/ 3008 m K. 17 C/ NA L. CLOSED WALL M. C8 N. 12345/ 7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF305 1604A DENNIS OB 19 MAX FL WIND 131 KT NE QUAD 11:40:30 Z |
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at 7:37 I have Dennis at ~86.38 W and ~28.65N... in the past 54 minutes Dennis has gone ~.22 degrees N and ~.06 degrees W... technically I would say he is still going NNW.... he is about 132 miles SSE of Pensacola and 170 miles SE of Mobile... |
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down to 131kts....eyewall replacement? |
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That is not a complete report. Note the highest winds parameter and lowest pressure is marked as "N" |
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pressure drop 1 mb too |
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looks like a right hook |
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BTW, not to distract, Joe B thinks there are 2 more potential landfalling systems over the next few weeks. He may be hard headed on forecasting landfall of systems; but he has been good on his heads up on potential systems this year. |
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Quote: I have family who left Grand Bay and went to Mobile who did not evacuate. According to Skeetobites map at 7:17 am Dennis goes directly over their home in Wilmer (North Mobile). Is it to late to leave the area? Also which direction to go if they do leave, west towards TX? I sure dont want them to get stuck on the road. Gut says to hunker down but the house is an old old brick house. Why didnt they listen to me days ago.... |
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Quote: run the various loops and you'll see. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ |
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yes run the mm5 and u can see them both, the first, 98l is gonna be a whopper |
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Well, Dr Steve basically said that teh eyewall will be coming right over my house. He said it should still turn left before landfall but I've never seen one do that. I am 30 miles west of Ft Walton so a right hook would be fine for me right now. Oh well. We are ready. Its amazing how many people returned when this went to a cat1 and the nhc said it would not get back to 3. They are not ready. Lets keep our fingers crossed this weekens a bit before landfall. |
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think daniel said traffic on 98 and 49 from wilmer to hattiesburg and on up towards jackson was not too heavy |
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TWC just mentioned a very important item that should be repeated. Do not run a generator indoors. It is not even wise to run it in an attached garage. However, if you do run one in an attached garage(which I do sometimes), make sure you have a CO2 detector above the door to your garage and in other areas of the house(which I also do). |
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The buoy south of Pensacola has started to report 30' wave heights. Unfortunately the buoy south of Dauphin Island, which you'd really like to see, doesn't seem to be reporting. Wow this storm is still intensifying...I can't get a handle on what it will be doing in the hours just before landfall when it has had all day over the Gulf. NHC said the only thing to slow it down was cooler water temps. Yesterday though showed warmer temps right along the shore (I used Oceanweather because it is easy to read with all the different shades of orange). That showed yesterday a band of warmer temps above and around the barrier islands and to the west of the hurricane S of LA. Maybe that isn't a good SST map to go by? http://www.oceanweather.com/data/Gulf-of-Mexico/sst.html I don't wish this on anyone, but I'm relieved this morning to see the Nward movement because otherwise MS coastline would be in trouble. Still awful that someone has to get hit with this storm. Waiting to see the first daylight sat view...looks like very white cloud tops around the eye, the buzzsaw signature, very impressive eye. |
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I have family who left Grand Bay and went to Mobile who did not evacuate. According to Skeetobites map at 7:17 am Dennis goes directly over their home in Wilmer (North Mobile). Is it to late to leave the area? Also which direction to go if they do leave, west towards TX? I sure dont want them to get stuck on the road. Gut says to hunker down but the house is an old old brick house. Why didnt they listen to me days ago.... Personally I would leave now and head West/NW. |
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Local mets are coming on and talking with the NHC, that the north jump will more than likely be a wobble. They are saying that stronger storms are forming on the west side of the eye and that should pull it back to a NW, NNW trend and that is not good for us here in Pensacola. This will put the eye directly onto us. I hope they are wrong though. |
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I would say if they do evacuate, west would be the way to go. If they are going to go, they have to levae now. I would not suggest leaving an hour from now. All the bridges will probably be closed shortly. So going Northwest would be best. |
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joe's cocky and all, but he's tops when it comes to pattern recognition. yeah, we're gonna be talking about that low at 40w a heck of a lot after dennis is up near paducah. speaking of which, more globals than not are showing dennis doing a loop/stall scenario inland over the lower midwest and midsouth. this thing will probably be causing flooding all week. that could end up being just as big of a story. HF 1405z10july |
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Quote:Quote: Go west as far as you can |
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Well I don't think anyone knows exactly where this is going to land, and you wouldn't want to be in Grand Bay if there was any chance of flooding, that's for sure. If the eye lands to the east, then it will mainly be a lot of wind to deal with. If the eye lands closer or to the west (looks unlikely now) then much better not to be in Grand Bay, due to storm surge. I just hope everyone got out of that area, and also Foley, Gulf Shores area. |
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Quote: It was forecasted as a Cat 3 possible Cat 4 last night at 5PM. No one had an excuse to be in that area over night, let alone today. How can people not be ready? |
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Quote: Two hours ago, last time I checked the roads, traffic was very light...but increasing from the Mobile area...i.e. westbound Hwy 98 into Hattiesburg. Other option at this point is i-10 west toward New Orleans, Baton Rouge and Houston. |
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wilmer area to hattiesburg to jxn is west north west with no bridge closures to fear if you leave soon |
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No reason why this thing wont go CAT 5.....bad news |
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Quote:Quote:Quote: Well the only way west of Wilmar is to take 98 up past Lucedale to Hattiesburg. Going that way you could get hit with very high winds because there is an inland hurricane warning for that area. Many gas stations are out of gas around that area. You don't want to get stuck on that tiny highway without gas. Plan carefully if you decide to get out to Hattiesburg (or maybe Montgomery). There also won't be any hotel rooms available. |
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Quote: I think most of the motel rooms north of the area are full. Possibly to Memphis. Louisiana and Texas may be a better solution for Mobile area evacuees right now. Some left the New Orleans area so there could be motels rooms available. |
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With the latest update at 9am, the northerly track at 16mph, that really has me worried that this fast moving thing is really gonna hammer it's landfalling area. CNN was saying that the hurricane force winds will probably keep up when it makes inland from 50-100 miles from the center. |
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Quote: I dunno about the west turn. Seems counter to what you might expect. If u look at the water vapor, Dennis appears to be getting influenced by some w-sw shear from the ULL south of LA. Notice the more asymmetrical cloud shield. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html |
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I'm seeing frequent Tornado Warnings from Florida. Please keep your radios and TVs on a local EBS station or turn on your WeatherRadio. 3 warnings in the last hour from the Tampa NWS County warning areas. Latest Warning from Tampa NWS An hour old, but still severe weather in the area. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 807 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... PINELLAS COUNTY IN FLORIDA. * UNTIL 830 AM EDT * AT 807 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A TORNADO OVER LARGO...MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT... LARGO BY 805 AM EDT. CLEARWATER BY 810 AM EDT. DUNEDIN BY 815 AM EDT. PALM HARBOR BY 820 AM EDT. TARPON SPRINGS BY 825 AM EDT. THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM! MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...AWAY FROM WINDOWS. COVER YOUR HEAD AND BODY WITH PILLOWS OR BLANKETS. |
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Quote: CNN should listen to the NHC better. "Hurricane force winds associated with Dennis may occur as far as 150 to 175 miles inland along the track of the hurricane." |
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Yeah, we (Manatee county) had one around 7:30 this morning. Nothing since though. |
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anyone have the link of the site that has flood tide prediction charts for like 10-20 sites in the gulf, all listed on one screen? thanks! |
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fortunately southwest alabama is rural once you get inland.. in terms of people and property there is less to be threatened. no comfort for folks in places like atmore, brewton, and grove hill. |
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http://water.sam.usace.army.mil/ |
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NHC will shift the track slightly to the east next adv. Per JK speaking w/ the NHC. |
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Well they have decided to hunker down and stay put. Fear of no gas, high traffic volume and time stuck on the road made their choice. Shelters in Mobile are full also. Thanks for the quick info I was able to pass along to them. Does anyone know if cell phone service will be interrupted in the affected areas? |
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Cell service depends largely on the ability for the towers to remain up. Another concern is high volume. For 2 days before and about 36 hours after Frances, I had a difficult time getting calls to go out on my cell - everything was busy. YMMV SPSFD (Your mileage may vary, see participating stores for details) |
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Quote: Do they have text messaging capabilities? If so, that might be a good option. Still won't work if service is out - but - text messages will be sent when the system is available again (as opposed to calls that have to be re-dialed until you can get through). My prayers are with all in the path. Karen Great Idea! |
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if the westward turn is going to happen it would be soon as the build up of storms on the western wall is what they keep saying may influence the westward shift again. how far east did the nhc say they may adjust and does that keep it heading north upon landfall? http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kevx.shtml shows clear nw float but water vapor makes it look n? |
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So you don't panic after the storm: I was able to reach my Mom in Pensacola immediately after the storm then she lost phone service for several days, cell and land. It scared me to death. Bottom line phone service will be spotty at best. Often they could call out and not get incoming calls or vice versa. Or the phone would not ring, but if they picked up, it would connect. Fun stuff. DO tell them to try text messages to let you know they are ok or plans they have. Just keep trying periodically if you can't get them. Eventually you will get through. I am praying for them and everyone else in the path of this monster. |
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After charley we diddn't have phone service for over a month with Nextel. However, some other companys got up to speed faster. Your ability to reach them may depend on what service they have. |
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Cell phone service will be around during and to some extent after the storm. The problem lies not with the towers, although some will fail b/c they are probably not designed for 145mph winds plus gusts especially the old ones, but the antennas they really take a beating in the winds. They move or fall off which will disrupt the network becuase they are not transmitting their signal in the right direction. However, if a tower/antenna site survives (which most do) they will have about 4-12 hours of emergency backup power (generators, batteries) then they fail. That is why most can use a cell phone during and usually one day after the event and then service dies until the main power is restored or the wireless company adds more gas to the generator. They only caveat is capacity...if there are 1 millions calls into a network designed for 500K calls...there will be problems. Good luck to your family...I really feel for all those folks up there! |
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Probably but Dennis looks to be going more NW again in last few frames. I guess he is stair stepping. |
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FEMA and the wireless companies also have portable sites that they will have on standby to deploy after the storm. They call them COWs (Cells On Wheels). |
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Quote: thanks Daniel, there's another one I'm still looking for. |
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Hurricanes always seem to move in these wobble steps. But when it gets close to landfall, a wobble can make a difference of course on where the eye makes landfall. |
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Usually I just sit back and read but this one I do know about! I went to Port Charlotte after the storm and then living in Vero Beach went through 2 last year. This is what I learned. Have plenty of gas and ice on hand, you will not be able to get it for a couple of days. If you can it will be gone fast. If you want FEMA to reimburse you for a generator do not buy it the day before an event, they will not pay!?? Nextel is used by emergency groups so they may lock you out. We lost two towers on top ot that. Nextel and other companys will give you a break on your payments if you call them! If you have a generator and can run your frig. frozen gatorade is a treat!! Oh, don't forget propane for your gril and a fan. It gets really hot down here! Surviving the next 2 wks after the storm can be the hardest. |
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Quote: Main thing will be if the cell phone towers stay up. Last year with IVAN my brother was able to call me to let me know when he was off the street and off duty and directed to go to the nearest shelter and hunker down...thank goodness. |
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Thats a great idea about text messaging. Im calling them now to tell them to do just that. Thanks for the tip! |
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Quote:Quote: Try going to each state's web site. On the MS web site I found all the storm surge and evac maps for the coastal counties. |
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My prayers and thoughts go out to all that are in the path of this monster.Just be smart be safe and do the best that you can.Help will be on they way,soon after the storm. |
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Looks like the board lost a style sheet again. *edit* As soon as I posted that, it came back - go figure. |
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Wave heights on that buoy SSE of Pensacola now approaching 35 ft. |
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Some of you might not be aware of these guys: http://hurricanetrack.com/ They had some oustanding video of Charlie last year. They are hurricane chasers. |
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Whatever wobble there was is gone...it looks like it is back on course for Pensacola. Ouch! |
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Quote: Same thing happened to me, only it came back between the initial post and the preview. Good view of the eye on Tallahasee short-range loop: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kevx.shtml Looks like the area with very high winds has become even more compacted. Ignoring all the wobbles still looks to be heading generally in NW direction. |
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what's up with the Pensacola data not available? http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/productviewnation.php?pil=TAEOSOTLH&version=0 anyone have links to sites that are up? |
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Quote: Yep, some of our image servers are down, so I had to shuffle things around. Down to 2 at the moment (From 5). Hope they hold, the main server can't handle it alone. |
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whoa... no pics. bandwidth issues do not permit those. links are ok. -HF |
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Well, start by disabling the avatars and smilies. They aren't much on the size-load, but they are definitely the largest amount of requests per page. An ounce of prevention and all that. |
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I pitty anyone who is hunkering down in the many wood framed homes and buildings up there! |
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At this speed, it should be a daytime hurricane, which is good. It is far scarier at night... if that is any consolation. |
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Quote: I have been searching all over for the link to the navy site, anyone have it? |
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Foxnews is showing an incredible feed from the Pier in Pensacola |
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wood framed bldgs? older construction, maybe. whatever ivan didn't get.. well, dennis is going to have its way with it. HF 1543z10july |
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Looks like Suddath has picked his spot to continue feed. http://www.hurricanetrack.com/live.html |
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Quote: Can't believe these guys. They are putting themselves right in the path of a storm surge just for some pics of tiny waves lapping at a beach house. When storm surge comes in, it comes in fast just like the water from a tsunami. |
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They don't stay in the vehicle - they leave it there to collect data - like "dorothy" in the movie Twister. |
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This image struck me. Outer rain bands coming onto Pensacola beach, yesterday: http://lightningboy.com/Hurricane_Dennis/DSC00777.jpg |
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Sudduth's wind tower is about to get its first REAL field test... To Rick and all of you in Dennis' path, you're all in my family's prayers. The only upside I can see is at least landfall is during daylight hours. |
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Actually, they are in the vehicle and driving around |
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Mark needs to get that thing up and get out of there pretty soon, he doesn't have much time. Landfall is going to be a little bit sooner in the afternoon now. |
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Quote: But they will leave it and go back to the police station for shelter. |
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Just talked to my brother in Pascagoula. He's been on duty since 2am and quite busy but luckily I caught him just at the right time to talk to him for a couple minutes. He said the county shut down the computer system so he has no way to get direct info about the hurricane, but he knows the barometric pressure must be really low, because of how much the water is already rising (under areas of low barometric pressure the water will rise up like a dome). He said they are already at 7 feet or more in some areas, and already they are getting calls from folks who are in trouble because of the high water. Remember they are getting winds from the N right now. Also...the eye is clearly visible on MOB radar now: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kmob.shtml I told him I'd give him a call and let him know if it hooked west to make landfall west of the FL/AL border. While we were talking I didn't think that would be the case but wow it is really moving NW now and it is moving pretty fast. If it doesn't hook west or go too far west then they won't have to worry because they won't get too much wind or rain. |
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Outer eyewall has formed from radar loops. This could weaken significantly before landfall. |
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Quote: Post on the website says they are going to head east as far as they can to setup the tower and get away, webcam will be down while they setup. www.hurricanetrack.com |
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A little late for this, as the conversation has ended, but... Believe it or not, these storm chasers are doing the community a service, in my opinion. People need some form of closure with these things. My reconciling with Charley was done through my film. I would then show it to other people, see their emotional impact, and see that they now finally understood. This is most important for the people to evacuate. I will never forget my neighbor coming home that afternoon to survey the damage. When she saw all her windows broken, her roof in shambles, and everything in the house trashed, she started screaming in the street. People don’t understand how this could ever happen to them. When they see my movie, it is like, oh, now I understand. Another group of storm chasers….Jeff Gammons, Jim Edds, and Douglas Kiesling , among other guys with their team usually produce some pretty good imagery. I don’t know how long they can keep it up, but they have this “intercepting” business down to a science. However if there is one thing that we have learned about hurricanes, it is to expect the unexpected. I hope no one gets killed in one of these things, because it will probably end it (and worse, it will be on film). The films storm chasers create generally mean a lot to a community that was hit. That is why the aforementioned team made over $100,000 in just our little town. http://www.bnvn.com/hurricane_charley/ http://www.extremestorms.com/ http://lightningboy.com/ |
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Mike...I know you're working hard to keep this thing going. It's running great considering whats going on.Thanks alot!!!!!! |
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not very predictable, those inner core changes. yeah, it could spin down some... but i dunno. that inner eyewall hasn't weakened a whole lot... there's maybe half of an outer eyewall.. and it's approaching the coast. if i had to guess, i wouldn't call on it to spin down below cat 4 status, or the pressure to get back above 940... but i'm not being optimistic. i was going with a 3 earlier but had just about lost hope on that... with it accelerating and coming in perpendicular to the coast, it should more or less keep stable to impact. that'll be in about 4 1/2 hrs. HF 1606z10july |
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After Charlie and Frances the land line phones worked for several hours after we lost power - seems they have their own batteries which then died. 4-6 hours. Verizon cell worked the whole time. (Please don't stop your prayers for those in the path just because the storm is stlll coming. There will be many miracles, maybe one because of your prayer.) This makes me feel so bad it hurts. GLT |
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There's a chance of it, but we don't know where in the cycle it'll occur. Will one happen before landfall? We can only hope, but it's not a given. |
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I have to agree, the more coverage of these storms, the more informed folks will be, and increase preparedness now and in the future. |
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Very impressive photo |
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I would have to disagree, but then again it's merely prefrence. A hurricane's damage would be much more brazen during the day (when you could see it), rather then night when you have no clue what's happening. A crude metaphor would be getting shot and watching it happen. |
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Well, Good luck to all up there! I have a Cousin in Ft. Walton Beach that has a trailer home, however he and his wife and child are staying in Orlando right now. I'm thinking they'll be coming home to a house boat. Someone told me there were 2 Lows coming off of Africa? |
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Quote:Yup,2 more. Good chance of developing also.What a year this is going to be!!!!! |
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Yeah, they will take a look at what Dennis did and turn around and go the other way so they don't get the blame! |
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Bay County bridges will be closed in about an hour due to expected sustained 55mph winds. |
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well, still have power here in gulf breeze. winds probably 60 mph. house is shaking a bit but i am hoping this is no worse than ivan..radar looks like a Pensacola pass or al/fl border landfall |
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Correct me if I`m wrong , looking at the radar loop out of Pensacola, it looked like Dennis might hit west of town.......and the two waves out in the Atlantic bares watching. The one that just came off of Africa looks pretty impressive, the one in the mid Atlantic has some convection this morning and a swirl......Trackin time again next week it looks like.......I pray for those of you in Dennis`s path...Be safe...Weather |
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PCola where exactly are you in Gulf Breeze? Are you on the coast? |
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Based on information via HurrTrack, you should be getting sustained winds of around 50 MPH from 55 degrees in Escambia County. |
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From experience Keith... I would much rather go through a daytime hurricane than a nighttime one. But perhaps this is a thing of personal preference. It sucks either way... but at least you know what is going on in the day. I guess it doesn’t matter in the bathroom closet. |
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From the 3 hurricanes I have gone through I would say going through them in the day hours in less scarey than having them happen at night. I like to know what is happening, I hate being left in the dark (pun not intended) MaryAnn Quote: |
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Still here...just balmy and breezy inland about 20 miles...anticipate things will deteriorate rapidly... appears movement will oscillate....and now where the eye comes in...everything to the right of it for twenty miles...will be the brunt of things... boat may survive this...unless it tracks a little bit more west than it is... doing fine right now...wierd that it's coming in during the day...can't remember that happening in the last 10 hurricanes....will it stall and come in tonight?... still some suprises, I think, with the ultimate landfall.... |
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looking at the latest NWS radar loop, looks like the eyewall has weakened in the last half hr |
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Good thing your not out in the Gulf near moored bouy 42036, it had peak wave height of 33.5 in the last hour.........Weatherchef |
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Looking at visible, there some thunderstorms clouds extending beyond the general height of the other tops to the SW corner of the eye. Most likely torndaic , but then again it would be offly difficult to notice a tornado when you're experiencing a hurricane with 140 mph winds. Edit -- Keith234, it's very rare to see any tornadic activity within the eyewall of the storm itself. Conditions just do not support it. It is likely that this is where the strongest winds may be found at this time, particularly as they translate down to the surface, but not an indicator of tornadoes. Radar data -- particularly velocity products -- need to be used to look for tornadic activity, not satellite. --Clark |
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Quote: You mean 42039 (south of Pensacola). 42036 is south of Tampa and had max wave height of around 24 ft earlier this morning. Actually that data is two hours old...it says 9:50 but if you look above it says the times are one hour older, so that was at 9am. Sure wish the buoy south of Dauphin Island (42040) was working. |
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Local Weatherman from Mobile-Pensocola area stated the rainbands arent as bad as expected and most likely wont be as Tornadic as one thought. Thats a good sign, also Winds arent as a bda as expected either. I wouldnt be surprised if it gets downgraded to a 3 and maybe even fall apart sooner then expected once it hits land. The cooler water seems to be doing damage. |
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Having still damage to fix 11 months later (slept in living room 6 months) I am so sorry to see what folks will be facing again. i'm like in shock . FIVE hurricanes to hit Florida in less than 11 months. |
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Nate, I would wait to hear that from NHC...sounds like some of these TV Mets are winging it right now....also...looks like it will be a direct hit on Pensacola...looks like Gulf Breeze and Navarre area will be hammered. |
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the latest message had 937mb as the central pressure and the max flight level winds at 93kt. the wind sample is probably low, but the pressure is going back up, which is good. it will probably be a 3 when it gets to the coast.. but still stronger than ivan incrementally. the eyewall convection is a little weaker, and the satellite presentation isn't as good as earlier... three hours to go or so. HF 1708z10july |
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That buoy has been out for awhile. I tried to look at it a while back. The waves are really picking up around the eye this morning. |
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Also seems like the Eyewall and Storm surge arent as big or as destructive as Ivan. |
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Nate -- he's right on the rain bands -- they are not nearly as tornadic as seen with last years storms, meaning most areas may have dodged the bullet with that one. The orientation of the rain bands more east-west than north-south may be helping with this, but that's just a hunch. The tropical storm force winds are every bit as much as advertised, however. Remember that the hurricane force winds are still offshore -- this is not one of last year's monster-sized storms -- and believe me, their full force will be felt soon enough. Tallahassee -- almost 200 miles from the storm and well inland -- has seen gusts over tropical storm force thus far today, with sustained winds continually over 30mph. Storm-total rainfall is nearing 5" in many spots, with 7"+ a good bet once all is said and done. US 98 between Panacea and Apalachicola -- something like 30 miles -- is closed, with water over the roadway in many areas. Observing stations in both Pensacola and Apalachicola are down, with the Tallahassee and Panama City systems struggling to keep up sometimes. And -- most of this is well-removed from the storm! Bottom line: the worst is still yet to come. |
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Yes, thanks for reminding me. That's why severe thunderstorms the-" windy" kind don't have tornados. Isn't there a term used to describe area's of strong wind that translate down to the surface in hurricanes-the word vector comes to mind but that doesn't seem to make sense? They were attributed with massive damage in isolated area's associated with Andrew. Does anyone know?. You are thinking of either downdrafts or microbursts, I believe. They are most common with continental thunderstorms, but can be seen with hurricanes as they make landfall and begin to weaken. --Clark |
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Nate, again -- the storm is still offshore, including the hurricane-force winds, and is a smaller storm than Ivan. Storm surge will not be a major factor for a little time yet -- and is already affecting other areas, as mentioned in the last post. The eyewall doens't have to be huge for things to be bad -- it just may narrow the scope of the damage (and concentrate it, too) to a smaller area. |
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I MUST ASK THIS QUESTION. MY HUSBAND IS SUPPOSED TO HEAD FOR ATLANTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. I HEARD ONE OF THE NEWS STATIONS MENTION THAT ATLANTA MAY RECEIVE SOME PRETTY ROUGH WEATHER. IF THAT IS THE CASE, I WOULD MUCH RATHER HIM REARRANGE HIS SCHEDULE AND STAY IN SE GA, ESPECIALLY IF HE WILL BE DRIVING THROUGH THE WORST OF IT. ANY ONE HAVE ANY ADVICE FOR ME? I REALLY APPRECIATE IT! |
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im suprised that Max wind of 93knots, and at 260, didnt they sample the e and N side? |
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Atlanta will be on the NE corner, but Like they stated Rainbands havent been as heavy as expected. That doesnt mean things wont pick up later this afternoon when the Body of Dennis crosses the coast. I would recommend being put til Morning. I honestly think your going to see this storm lose steam drastically when it crosses land. Cuba took alot out of it, Them saying it will stay a Hurrican til Mid day Monday, I disagree with. I wouldnt recommend driving anywahere in that area today if it isnt a dieing emergency. |
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THANKS NATE FOR TAKING THE TIME TO ANSWER MY QUESTION. WITH EVERYTHING THAT'S GOING ON IN THE GULF, MY QUESTION IS MINOR IN COMPARISON. THANKS!! I PRAY FOR SAFETY FOR EVERYONE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM! |
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Looking at the projected track Dennis will landfall on Pensacola. |
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Looking at the most recent WV imagery, I'd say the storm is going to bring the eyewall onshore just, just to the west of Pensacola, about along the state line or so. Check out the imagery from the following link, you can zoom in as well. (Just click the zoom button and then click in the window at the desired zoom location). WV Imagery from UHMET You can clearly see where the storm was going almost due north, and then see how it's hooked now back to the NW/NNW direction. Not good for Pensacola one bit...my prayers again go out to them, this is going to be a very bad day. |
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Quote: Here is a link to the JAX florida RADAR [url=http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/jax_NCR_lp.html]web page[/url This link will show major roads and the rain. Charleston S.C. along with the Atlanta area sites were down when i checked. |
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I'd be interested in anyone's comments on Dennis vs. Camille. Dennis has apparently lost some punch as it has gone over cooler waters. Why didn't that happen with Camille...later in the season=warmer waters, was its path over the Gulf over deeper water, etc? |
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GEORGIA GIRL -- yes, Atlanta may receive some rough weather: mainly rain, lots of squalls. Airport operations there will likely be touch and go all day with many flights likely to be canceled. garrison -- I believe they sampled the west side of the storm, coming from Keesler AFB in Mississippi. They'll move to the NE side next. |
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garrison -- I believe they sampled the west side of the storm, coming from Keesler AFB in Mississippi. They'll move to the NE side next. I local TV station had an interview with a Hurricane hunter pilot and they indicated that they had moved to texas to run current operation...but still they would be coming from the southwest through the storm. |
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Ed in Va-- a combination of all of the above, plus probably some atmospheric factors that came into play as well. Hard to say, though, without a lot of old data for Camille....about all that can be said now is that Dennis is no Camille, which is a good thing. Latest recon in: 127kt at flight level in the NE quadrant, 939mb sfc. pressure. Storm is a bit weaker, but still very intense. |
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Winds are picking up here in Pensacola (around 60-70mph gusts). Power is still on at my house, but who knows for how much longer. The compactness of this storm is just going to bring the winds all of a sudden I think. Everyone stay safe. |
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Just talked to one of my cousins who drives a big rig. He is between Montgomery and Atlanta(closer to Atlanta) going toward Atlanta and states that there is but a light breeze with intermittent rain showers. I would expect that driving conditions from SE Georgia would be ok if your husband exercises common sense and drives with caution as one would during any thunderstorm or inclement weather. Just listern to local weather reports and be careful. |
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I'm in Pascagoula. It's pretty windy (of course this is only my second hurricane so it seems like alot to me!) rainy. The roads are starting to flood. I can definetly see a decreasae in the weather within the last hour or so. Good luck to everyone! |
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Just for the sake of curiosity - are you a fan of UGA? |
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Well looks like I might have my first blown forecast of the season with my landfall within 50 miles of Panama City. Only way it wouldnt happen is a direct N turn now and head maybe even slightly NNE. Anyways I expected a north turn more earlier, and it actually did look like it last night but was only a wobble. Looks like Ill miss my spot by 25-50 miles. Not bad but ill take the miss on landfall. Hopefully everyone from Mobile-Panama City is indoors now and ready for this severe hurricane. On a side note....Dennis's child should become our next depression late today or more likely tomorrow and threaten the Leeward islands Weds, Puerto Rico by thurs and Bahamas by the weekend.,.,,,US? too far out to tell. scottsvb |
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Good luck to you and everyone up there. I cannot be there with you in person but will be there in spirit. |
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Looks like http://hurricanetrack.com/ is up...but there isn't any discernable image, and he is saying that the pressure may not register. But at least it looks like it will give wind speed and direction. Looks like he took the barrier island road east as far as he could go past Gulf Shores, the tower is on Perdido Key which is a barrier island just south of the entrance to the bay. |
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Do you have any guesses on how strong this one will be? |
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the guy on channel 9 news in Orlando said the pressure is at 930 lower than Ivans was when he come ashore. |
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The next storm will be a small compacted system. Like Charlie last year. There is no reason right now where we cant see this becoming a hurricane in the next 4-5 days. Right now, we dont know. |
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Hey Kissy looks like MS coast is in the clear. You will get tropical force winds and rain but will be spared the intense center of the storm, which looks to make an AL/FL landfall. |
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Anybody have a good link to share with detailed or interactive (zoom) county maps of Escambia/Santa Rosa area? |
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Image is extremely hard to see.. Are they still working on the tower, or have they left the area? |
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Quote: adv 25a just came out - winds droped to 135pmg and pressure went up from 937 to 939. Somewhere like strong CAT 3 weak CAT 4. |
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What is happening to the eye in this most recent frame? Satellite IR and water vapor imagery it still looks intact, but in the radar it looks like it is breaking up to the south? http://www.crh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p19r0/si.kmob.shtml |
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Looks like a jog to the N maybe? |
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After looking at the water vapor loops, surface pressures, and current radar views it is looking like the eye is rounding out again and it is moving into a position to come onshore to the west of Pensacola...the only questions now is will it move west or east as it makes contact with land...cat3/4 at land fall, but at least a smaller eye...prayers for all in the path...stay safe.... |
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Quote: Know what you mean, they ARE scarier at night. But then again after watching whole oak trees fly by during Charley, maybe being in the dark isn't so bad after all. My prayers are continuous for those of you in harms way. Favorite aftermath trick -- use your washing machine as an ice bucket. God bless and protect you. |
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You may make your forecast yet. The last hour of radar loop shows the storm moving..can u believe it...maybe an ever so slight N-NE direction. If this trend continues, P'cola may be spared the worst. |
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Defintely a jog to the north and if it contiunes for more than a half hour it's going to make landfall east of Pensacola. I feel so bad for those of you over there who went through Ivan and are now going through Dennis. It's hard to believe your bad luck and our good luck here in New Orleans. |
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It's a real shame about your forecasting prowess. I'm more concerned about those who will lose their homes and businesses. Your record isn't a great loss. |
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that jog north actually looks northeast jog no, that just isn't right. -HF |
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The latest radar is wild...it looks like it is starting to hook to the east...this would make things alot better for pcola....looks like it is starting to feel the land now... |
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I was watching TWC and the satellite run definately did show a right leaning turn to me. |
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Big convective blowup recently in S Alabama...any impact on the track of the storm remains to be seen, but a slight wobble west is not out of the question. This storm looks like it is going directly up Escambia Bay, where damage is going to be catastrophic. This will take the eyewall near or over downtown Pensacola. Areas from Panama City to Cape San Blas should see their storm surge really kicking up as the center makes landfall and winds begin to come perpedicular to shore in that area. Regions all across the SE from Mississippi to SE Georgia are seeing torrential rains -- here in Tallahassee, we are now well over 5" storm total with much more to come. The FL panhandle, except for perhaps the areas between Apalachicola and Panacea, is bearing the brunt of the heavy rainfall at this time, with S. Alabama next in line as the storm moves north. |
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The radar loop confirms a northward or north-northwestward movement, but not an eastward movement. Surely an eastward movement would be beneficial to Pensacola, but it would doom quite a few other areas just to the east as well. There is the possibility for either an eastward or a westward jog at landfall, but neither is showing up right now. Satellite can be rather deceiving over short intervals, especially if the satellite "jumps" suddenly; radar data is much better to use and offers better resolution at this point in time. |
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Its a shame you need to bash me mrsmith. As I said I hope everyone is indoors with this. Your conserns are ours also. Leave it at that. |
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Quote: Maybe God is sparing the good people of P'cola from the worst of the rath..if this N or N-NE trend continues much longer the city will be spared. But Ft Walton Beach looks to be severely damaged. |
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Clark, I agree its a northward movement, but at this longitude if it holds, Dennis will come in east of P'cola - I'm glued to the short range radar. |
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this large blow up north and west could drag it a bit. what's the mets thinking on motion after landfall? |
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I'm simultaneously watching radar out of Mobile and Tallahassee with both of them zoomed. It refreshes about every minute or so. I agree that I think it is just a northward movement at this time. |
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It certainly looks like a jog north. Maybe northeast, but too soon to tell. And this late in the game, every jog counts. Last night I was praying east of Mobile. This morning I've been praying east of Pensacola. But with all the thin, vulnerable barrier islands and great communities in this area, there's nowhere good for this thing to go. UGH! |
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Don't disagree with that, Ron, but I do think it'll still come in very near Escambia Bay. Pensacola, IIRC, is on the west side of the bay, but will likely still end up in the eyewall. After landfall, the storm should continue on its general motion up into the Ohio/Mississippi River valley before stalling out, leading to some heavy rainfall amounts over the next 5 days across the region. |
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Yeah our main concern is the lives. Homes and Businesses are 2nd. I hope everyone is safe in this storm. |
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Looks like still a little westward componant. It seems to be dead on course for Escambia Bay. |
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dirty eye? cloud fill in? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html |
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hats off to the nhc... they've never offered up a track far from the western panhandle and that's just where dennis has gone. everybody who should have gotten out has had ample, exemplary warning. the ugly part is about to start. gulf breeze over to navarre, warrington across pensacola to milton... lots of stuff is about to break. for the people who chose to stay... be safe, don't take risks, stay secure in sturdy places. protect your lives. HF 1906z10july |
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I would think, and this is just my opinion, that a path right up the middle of Escambia Bay would at least be better than if this thing lined up a little farther west. Right now and up until landfall, winds are blowing from the east. If Dennis were farther west, winds would be blowing straight up the bay the whole time, piling up the water and increasing storm surge. |
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Indeed moving NNW again, and the eye looks like it will pass right over Pensacola Beach and into Escambia Bay. Downtown Pensacola will be in on the western eyewall along with Perdido Key. Navarre Beach, Destin and Fort Walton Beach will all be in the NE quadrant and will feel the true brunt of Dennis. My prayers are with you guys! |
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Clark, you're correct it will be very close - Looks like I may be wrong - latest radar shows a slight N-NW movement - looking like a direct hit on P'cola. I'm sorry for the good folks of Pensacola - hopefully most have found safe shelter. I'm guessing we might see an extensive tornado outbreak to the east of the center when it makes landfall too. |
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does anyone know how to get to Jason Kelly's live streaming video on his site? |
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The eye looks, at this point, like it will pass just west of Escambia Bay, but won't that also bring in the flooding on the back side of the eye. When is high tide? isn't in about an hour? |
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ok...for the second time in my life I will go thru the eye of a hurricane..I live between Pensacola and Navarre near the bGarcon Bridge and we are ground zero..amazingly we still have power..compliments to Ivan and the new infrustructure..its loud..and scary..wish me luck guys |
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In the last frames (short range Composite Reflectivity) the eye seems to be collapsing. ERC? |
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Good luck, seriously. Report back here as long as you can. |
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Be Safe Pcola....,........... |
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Quote: Good Luck..Hope you're in a strong building at least 15 feet above sea level. Keep sending reports as long as u can. |
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Quote: better for who? not the people to the east! pensacola isn't the only populated area along the coast there! |
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Stay safe Pcola. My prayers are with you, and everyone up there. |
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Quote: The worst situation if it occurs. Will pile lots of water into Escambia Bay. I don't think it's really gonna matter whether its high tide or not with a 12-18 foot storm surge predicted |
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Prayers are with you and all in your area. Do you live on Garcon Point or on the island to the south? |
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Quote: Good luck...are you out on the E/W penisula where Gulf Breeze is located, or are you north of the bridge on 81 in the N/S peninsula between Pensacola and Eglin (I'm guessing the former)? |
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Just heard on the news that a hotel in Crestview, Fl with 100 or so people in it just had the roof ripped off. Wind gusts and rain in Mobile, but so far so good. I feel bad for the people to the east of me, but have to say I'm still closer than I wanted to be ! |
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To my untrained eye it looks like Dennis will clip Gulf Breeze and goes just west of Escambia Bay. My heart goes out to each and every one in the path of Dennis and also to the ones further west and those to the east as you too need the prayers. I have a feeling my FIL will be selling his condos at Gulf Shores. The condos were still being repaired and were not livable just yet. I do not wish a hurricane on anyone but I was wishing this area would be spared. |
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We are in Tiger Point, just East of Gulf Breeze. 1:38 CST and we still have power and cable. It is really kicking up... looks to be gusting 60 or 70. Judging from the radar, we are going to see the eye. |
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Anyone else think it's humorous how Heather Tesh on TWC has been constantly saying "eminent" approach when she has meant "imminent"? It's one thing for my 8 year-old daughter to misuse a word she is unfamiliar with, but it's obvious that the word-a-day approach has failed with that TV personality. Forget "hunker down", the word of this hurricane season is now "eminent". |
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The tower didn't hold up at all it seems, they're back to streaming from their SUV. It appears they just parked in a lot, I'd be kinda worried for them. |
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pressure up to 942 with the last fix. probably a little higher now. actual impact intensity probably an upper cat 3... definitely nothing to take lightly. looking at mapquest.. looks like oriole beach just east of gulf breeze.. in 30 minutes or so. there'll be an intermediate advisory at 3pm eastern; probably gonna be assigned 130mph intensity. the western inner eyewall of the hurricane is going to move over pensacola in about an hour.. going to be a hell of a lot of damage. by the way, high tide was at about half past noon cdt. don't think those waters backed out of pensacola bay at all. HF 1947z10july |
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Tornado Warning for 3 counties in the extreme western panhandle of Florida. http://uswx.com/us/wx/FL/004/AFCN.7072/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 130 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... OKALOOSA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA SANTA ROSA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA * UNTIL 230 PM CDT * AT 128 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE OUTER EYEWALL OF HURRICANE DENNIS WILL MOVE ONSHORE BETWEEN 2 AND 230 PM. THE EYEWALL CONTAINS THE MOST DAMAGING WINDS AND THE HIGHEST DESTRUCTIVE POTENTIAL...AND WILL PRODUCE TORNADO LIKE DAMAGE. * THE OUTER EYEWALL IS EXPECTED TO BE PASS OVER SANTA ROSA ISLAND BETWEEN GULF BREEZE AND FORT WALTON BEACH BETWEEN 2 AND 230 PM. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY! A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. LAT...LON 3020 8710 3026 8672 3096 8670 3091 8754 |
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3PM ADVISORY IN.. Eyewall is making landfall neat Fort Walton and Destin.. Winds down to 120MPH |
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CNN just broke in on it's Hurricane Dennis coverage for btreaking news that... The Eyewall has landed at or near Fort Walton Beach. Cat 3, 120MPH Breaking in on a story they are already covering... |
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We still have power at 1:51 in Tiger Point/Oriole Beach. Winds are still out of NE so, eyewall has yet to come ashore. Can't wait... |
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the fairy godmother has struck. dennis dropped a category just before landfall; it's essentially ivan intensity now. not that that is anything approximating good, but it's a hell of a lot better than the storm we had this morning a couple hours after daybreak. HF 1953z10july |
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Nate, we are looking at the 300 mile radar. Eyewall is coming in quiet a bit west of Ft Walton - Destin. Not here yet. |
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Cat 3, thank goodness. Storm is getting very near making a complete landfall. Not much that can still be said about this one, other than God speed to those in its path. |
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boy, mike seidel sure got testy with heather on twc. santa rosa, I hope is empty at this moment. wow |
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I am in the eyewall right noe..Ivan was much worse..I still have power..I don't get it |
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Winds 70-80 mph..radar shows the Eye coming over our house in the next few minutes |
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anyone have any local pensacola weather observation links that work? trying to get real time (or near real time) winds speeds. |
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98 mph |
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You've got to remember, first you had Ivan clearing out a lot of the weaker obstacles last year, and second you have much newer, stronger utility infrastructure as a result. Last year we lost power almost 18 hours before Frances, and only two hours before Jeanne. Stay safe. (e: typo) |
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Good job...Your the foward observer at this moment , keep the infro coming...Weatherchef |
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pcola.... um, where exactly do you live? |
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FIrst 70-75 mph wind gust in P-Cola tries to blow TWC reporter (not sure who... didn't look like Cantore, but maybe) over.... I won't start on my thoughts here... ... but, I will add that I hope everyone from here in that area is smarter than these bozo's on television. My prayers are with you, keep safe! |
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Radar indicated landfall has occured 2:14 local time near Oriole Beach / Gulf Breeze. |
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uh-oh did we lose Pcola? |
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Lysis, I would guess he lives in pensacola based on his screename. |
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I live in Gulf Breeze Proper. Got out and headed to my moms in Mobile yesterday. Just wacthing the TWC and see this looks like it made landfall in my backyard. Right now conditions in west Mobile are a bit windy but not bad. Some rain but not torrential. If anyone is from Gulf Breeze and still has internet access and reading please give me an update for that area. I live less than one mile from GBHS football field. Lastly, good luck to whoever stayed for this thing. |
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Actually... I gained a little respect of TWC with their forcasting. One guy on Mobile actually got on and said that "this was nothing" compared to what is happening to the east. Jeff Morrow is getting some great footage. On Fox, you know these guys are upset that the eye isn't hitting them, so they play up tropical storm force "gusts" as much as they can. This is why some people think hurricanes are "no big deal". |
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looks like the se side of the eyewall opened, but the nw side convection deepened.. that's currently moving onto pensacola right now. see jeff morrow gettin' knocked all over the place. HF 2022z10july |
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Wow Pcola really was ground zero. Such a localized area of high winds. |
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pcola, pcola where r u? what's happening? |
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From what I can tell from Pcola's posts, I think the location is somewhere on the point of land between Garcon Point and Santa Rosa Island, maybe in the oriole beach area but on the backside near the Garcon Point Bridge. If Pcola is still on, is this close? |
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Hopefully pcola just lost power and is safe |
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I think he mentioned he lives near Tiger Point -- just east of Gulf Breeze. |
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Judging only from the tv video, this storm does not look as bad as Ivan. Anyone else get that impression. Hope I'm right |
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The close up radar on the TV showed the tiny tiny area of the eye that was still open (which looked to be only maybe a half-dozen city blocks wide) just go over east of Oriole Beach in the area where the strip of land is narrowest. I think this is right where Pcola lives...heck he's probably looking out the window not staring at a computer screen! I hope he isn't looking out the window. Very, very dangerous to do! |
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Quote: iT JUST HIT LANDFALL, SO LETS WAIT AND SEE.. ALSO. ANY HURRICANE IS BAD, ESPICALLY FOR THAT AREA, THAT IS STILL RECOVERING. |
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Quote: ya Dr Lyons is probably right about the more intense NE winds lifting off of sea level. Destin doesn't look bad at all. |
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I watched ivan from tv and it didn't look bad until the next afternoon, LONG way to go for many poor folks. |
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in terms of extent, you're probably right. this storm had a small, tight inner core that was weakening as it made landfall. the extensive damage path will be more limited for that reason. of course, footage ended from around gulf breeze/pensacola as the storm came ashore.. and i haven't seen anything from navarre. milton is getting rocked right now.. atmore and brewton alabama will get it around 4-5pm central. HF 2035z10july |
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They are saying on TWC that there is a lot of lightning around the eye.. that's unusual, isn't it? I have been through 2 eyes (Supertyphoon Pamela on Guam in 1976 and Charley last year) and I know there was no lightning. |
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I concur....MSNBC showed a real close zoomed in radar signature view and it was VERY clear where the eye has crossed onto land. The eye went right over Tiger Point Golf & Country Club at roughly the intersection of US 98 & Route 281 (Gulf Breeze Parkway & Garcon Pt. Brg.). I shudder to think of what will be left of that country club. That's almost exactly in the area where PCola was posting from, I believe. Odds are very good that he's without power; the reporters from the area on MSNBC were saying that most of that area is without power right now, so I wouldn't be surprised. |
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anyone have any good wind speed data? |
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When you come across the Pensacola Bay Bridge (Three Mile Bridge) you come into Gulf Bereze Proper. That's where I live. Garcon Point / Tiger Point is about 10 miles east of GB Proper. Navarre is about 12 miles east of Garcon Point. Hurricane Ivan wreaked havoc on Tiger Point. Especially soundfront homes. Jim Cantore is at GB Hospital which is on the fringe of GB Proper. GB Proper is less than 3 miles in length along hwy 98. |
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Hopefully he's got the windows boarded up and isn't watching his roof peel off. If he had 98 mph winds, he definitely lost power. |
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Quote: The golf course was still under repair from Ivan. |
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FYI, here in Atlanta, the first main rain band from Dennis is starting to pull into the area. In the past 30 minutes here in South Atlanta, the weather radio has been going crazy with T-Storm Warnings as well as Tornado warnings..... |
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Yes it went right over the bridge. You could see it even on the 19:29Z frame of the Tallahassee short range radar if you looked very closely. That was the left side of the eyewall. I think even though it was clouded over the right side of the eyewall was between Woodlawn Beach and Navarre. Seems odd only about 8 mi wide? |
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Quote: Pamela was bad...my family and I were on Okinawa when Guam was hit before coming our way...at least being off the islands we can get away from these storms when we need too. |
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They are showing sustained winds in the 40s around the eyewall on TWC. How is that posssible? Stacey |
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I was wondering about the atypical lightning as well... I have not seen any such thing in my hurricane experiences. |
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Quote: Anderson Cooper of CNN just had some unreal live video where they had to take cover in Pensacola.. Trees and Roofs shredded. |
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Did anyone see Anderson Cooper on CNN a few moments ago? What a gust! The guys around him are lucky to be okay. |
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Quote:Quote: ... and the Ramada sign is officially down. |
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Quote: This is from Navarre. Keep refreshing for updates http://grove.ufl.edu/~fcmp/Dennis/T0/ |
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Yeah, MSNBC just showed an awesome cross section of the storm as it was coming on shore. They took the radar image and turned it on it's side and moved through the storm like it was a CAT scan. Wow! We could have somefun with that program! I'm wondering how the Garcon Point Bridge held up. It this a newer bridge? Was it damaged at all during Ivan? |
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CNN and Anderson Cooper just show a large hotel sign(and a tree) get ripped apart near Pcola bay, right in front of them live. This is Anderson's first direct hit(He missed all three canes last year by miles) and he's doing pretty good for a "normal" reporter. They lost one reporter feed near the center of the eye, so hopefully she is ok. Edit: Right now Anderson is in the eye(4PM) |
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The Garcon Point Bridge is fairly new. I think 1999 or 2000. Maybe a little older than that. It did great during Ivan. I drive it once a week to my milton office. The only problem is that there is a 3.00 toll each way. |
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Quote: |
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I honeslty havent heard any winds o ver 75 MPH.. Its getting calm now where Anderson is.. This Cane may not be as bad as thought. Rain may be the worse part |
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CNN is live in Crestview now. |
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I don't know... some of these news reports are a little silly. The two guys on CNN are pretending that they are in the eye... You guys do realize that this is nothing even remotely close to what going through a major hurricane is like? EDIT: To be fair... I saw those guys position and they are close. Some good footage. It still doesn't do the storm justice though. |
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From Mobile NWS Office. old data. Read the last line! AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 130 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 ...A VERY SERIOUS HURRICANE EMERGENCY IS BECOMING MORE IMMINENT ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THIS AFTERNOON... .UPDATE...AT 130...THE CENTRE OF DENNIS IS POISED TO MOVE ONSHORE BETWEEN GULF BREEZE AND NAVARRE. RADAR TRACK HAS DENNIS MOVING AT 344/12KTS. ERRATIC...MESOSCALE WOBBLING CONTINUES...BUT WITH THE EXPECTED LANDFALL WITHIN THE HOUR...IT'S GOING TO TAKE A SERIOUS WOBBLE TO TAKE DENNIS TOWARDS MOBILE PROPER. PACKAGE UPDATED TO REFLECT A NEWLY ISSUED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM TONIGHT NAIL-BITING HAS REDUCED FINGERS TO NUBS.... (serious, emergency and imminent in the same sentence) |
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High peak windgust report from land was from a small station in Navarre Beach, 131.4 MPH winds. With the info blackout that happens when a storm passes we really won' know until tomorrow. Maybe parts this evening. http://grove.ufl.edu/~fcmp/Dennis/T0/ |
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Well when you are in a middle of a hurricane, Reporter mode to just speculate kicks in harder. When it gets that calm, you think center. Now if this was TWC....then we have a problem. Speaking of which, I switch over and see Dustin, Fl still going through hell. |
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must CNN show the same Anderson Cooper video over and over???!!! i've seen it 4 times now! |
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I think they're getting a little giddy... On our non cable tv we can watch local channels - showing golf, car racing, movies or the Tour de France. Even HD secondary channels are showing local radar (even tho when there's a hurricane in the gulf our weather is always exactly the same - hot and dry!). Last year, the secondary channels showed hurricane coverage. Not this year. But wait! ABC broke into their sports show to show a couple of minutes of Dennis update! Looks like wherever they are, 2 miles from Pensacola Beach, they're the only people around. Good. Stay safe! From ABCNews.com Quote: eta: spelling and quote |
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Quote:Quote: OK I am trying to understand that data. It appears the wind came first from around NE to E to SE as the eye passed near, with wind increasing then decreasing, with wind gusts as high as just over 130mph from the ESE...so these were the winds from the NE quadrant of the storm that had the high gusts. It looked like the sustained winds were around 90mph for a small period of time. Is this right? |
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Quote: Mike, thanks for that link. Do you have a link for a larger menu of sites? |
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Quote: TWC reported cane possibly falling apart.. There showing that cause right now thats the worse damage report. CNN also showed the Crestview Hotel no roof, possible on fire also. |
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Panama City airport is the only airport I can find that is still transmitting ASOS data. KPFN 30 12N 085 41W KNPA 30 21N 087 19W KPFN 102000Z 17026G38KT 3SM -RA BR PK WND 17038/1959 KNPA 101956Z 32022G44KT 3/4SM +SHRA BR PK WND 01050/1954 PRESFR SLP773 P00 |
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No they were close... and I didn’t see some of the more dramatic footage when I wrote that… while it doesn’t do the storm justice, I will admit that it is better than most of the other stuff coming out. Especially considering that it is coming from a normal media outlet. |
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I gave up on CNN after all of four minutes. "Look at the FEAR on their faces!" I was getting tired from rolling my eyes so much. |
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Quote: Id be fearful too.. That Metsal could slice you in half.. CNN now has on the Crestview Hotel, surprisingly the Emergency Personnel responded. Do you think this storm is alot lighter then some thought it would be? |
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METAR text: KNPA 101956Z 32022G44KT 3/4SM +SHRA BR OVC014 MM/22 A2884 RMK PK WND 01050/1954 PRESFR SLP773 P0064 Conditions at: KNPA observed 1956 UTC 10 July 2005 Temperature: missing Dewpoint: missing Pressure (altimeter): 28.84 inches Hg (976.7 mb) [Sea-level pressure: 977.3 mb] Winds: from the NW (320 degrees) at 25 MPH (22 knots; 11.4 m/s) gusting to 51 MPH (44 knots; 22.9 m/s) Visibility: 0.75 miles (1.21 km) Ceiling: 1400 feet AGL Clouds: overcast cloud deck at 1400 feet AGL Weather: +SHRA BR (heavy rain showers, mist) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- METAR text: KPFN 102000Z AUTO 17026G38KT 3SM -RA BR FEW014 BKN020 OVC040 26/25 A2947 RMK AO2 PK WND 17038/1959 P0001 $ Conditions at: KPFN observed 2000 UTC 10 July 2005 Temperature: 26.0°C (79°F) Dewpoint: 25.0°C (77°F) [RH = 94%] Pressure (altimeter): 29.47 inches Hg (998.1 mb) Winds: from the S (170 degrees) at 30 MPH (26 knots; 13.5 m/s) gusting to 44 MPH (38 knots; 19.8 m/s) Visibility: 3 miles (5 km) Ceiling: 2000 feet AGL Clouds: few clouds at 1400 feet AGL broken clouds at 2000 feet AGL overcast cloud deck at 4000 feet AGL Weather: -RA BR (light rain, mist) SOME DATA ABOVE MAY BE INACCURATE!!! "$" is an indication the sensor requires maintenance http://weather.cod.edu/obs/fl.cooked |
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Microwave data suggests an eyewall replacement cycle was near as it approached landfall, but the system made landfall before it could be completed. Thankfully, that coupled with the cooler waters offshore likely kept intensity in check -- and on the decline -- as it made landfall. It'll be interesting to see the reports trickle in over the next couple of days, but I expect a lot of damage along Navarre Beach and towards Ft. Walton & Mary Esther. |
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I'd keep in mind that initial reports always seem better than what was expected. The extent of the damage will not be known until the storm clears and helicopters can go up to survey the damage and people can drive around. I expect the damage to be worse than many here are assuming now. |
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Yes, and I agree. But long after the sign came down, long after the eyewall was north of him, he (Cooper?) kept over-sensationalizing the danger he was in. "I'm going to drag this scrap across the street before it kills one of us" Etc. On the other hand, Sudduth has been driving along the beach the last few minutes. It looks like the surge wasn't nearly as bad as Ivan, but there's still a good amount of beach sand on the road. |
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Yes… but don’t be fooled. The more destructive winds are going to be over a relatively small area, with is not comparable to the CNN footage (they were experiencing the western quadrants). They are generalizing (ie, they are saying “this is not as bad as it could have been”, whereas they should be saying “this is not as bad as it could have been here.”) |
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS84-KMOB.shtml HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 254 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005 ...HURRICANE DENNIS MADE LANDFALL BETWEEN GULF BREEZE AND NAVARRE FLORIDA...CLOSEST TO ORIOLE BEACH FLORIDA... ..EXTREME WIND DAMAGE...FLOODING AND ISOLATED TORNADOES A CERTAINTY AFTER LANDFALL... ...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COASTS... ...AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI... ...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS HAVE CHANGED SINCE OUR LAST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT. FOR THE LATEST BREAKDOWN ON TROPICAL WARNING PRODUCTS PLEASE SEE THE BHMNPWMOB PRODUCT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. FOR THE LATEST PLEASE SEE SEE THE PRODUCT BHMFFAMOB. A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA UNTIL 1100 PM THIS EVENING. BALDWIN...MOBILE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES OF ALABAMA AND INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ARE NOT IN THE TORNADO WATCH. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 245 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED AT 30.4 NORTH LATITUDE...87.1 WEST LONGITUDE...OR NEAR ORIOLE BEACH FLORIDA. DENNIS WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. THE LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WSR-88D RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM BOTH EGLIN AIR FORCE BASE AND MOBILE ALABAMA SHOW 125 TO 135 MPH WINDS BETWEEN 5000 AND 7000 FEET OFF OF THE GROUND...WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF DENNIS OVER THE LANDFALL LOCATION. A PORTABLE WEATHER OBSERVATION STATION NEAR NAVARRE MEASURED A 121 MPH WIND GUST AT 211 PM CDT. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT DENNIS IS LIKELY A CATEGORY THREE STORM...AND POSSIBLY A CATEGORY 4 STORM. WE WILL KNOW MORE AS MORE OBSERVATIONS BECOME AVAILABLE. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... AT THIS TIME...ALL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED. IF YOU DID NOT EVACUATE...SEEK SHELTER IN THE STURDIEST INTERIOR STRUCTURE YOU CAN FIND. SHELTERS ARE OPEN IN MANY AREAS...PLEASE CONTACT YOUR LOCAL EMA OFFICE...WATCH LOCAL TV OR LISTEN TO RADIO FOR LOCATIONS OF THESE SHELTERS. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL STILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE REGION THROUGH 2 PM CDT. STORM SURGE VALUES BETWEEN 10 AND 14 FEET ARE EXPECTED AROUND AND ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF DENNIS'S CENTER. THE GREATEST STORM SURGE HAZARD OVER ESCAMBIA BAY FLORIDA... ESPECIALLY EAST BAY. RAPID RISES IN WATER LEVELS ARE IN STORE THROUGH 5 PM CDT OVER ESCAMBIA BAY AS DENNIS APPROACHES. BE PREPARED! TIDE LEVELS IN MOBILE BAY ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 FEET DUE TO OFFSHORE WINDS AS DENNIS. SOME PILING OF WATER ON THE BAY SIDES OF BOTH THE FORT MORGAN PENINSULA AND DAUPHIN ISLAND ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE INCREASING NORTHEAST WIND FLOW. STORM TIDES OF 5 TO 7 FEET ARE POSSIBLE AT THESE LOCATIONS. ...WIND IMPACTS... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...75 MPH OR GREATER...WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA BY NOON AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WOULD RESULT IN EXTREME DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES. THESE WILL SPREAD INLAND BY 6 PM CDT. SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR AROUND AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF DENNIS' CENTER. AFTER LANDFALL ...THE CENTER OF DENNIS IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS BALDWIN...CLARKE...CHOCTAW....ESCAMBIA AND MONROE COUNTIES OF ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COUNTIES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOULD REMAIN ABREAST OF THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST AS UPDATES OCCUR. EXTENSIVE TO EXTREME TORNADO-LIKE WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE AROUND...AND ESPECIALLY JUST TO THE IMMEDIATE EAST OF DENNIS' EYE AS IT MOVES INLAND. ...RIP CURRENTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS... STAY OUT OF THE WATER. HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE RECREATIONAL BEACH ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. DO NOT GO BACK INTO THE WATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY! RESIDUAL RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY DUE TO A FASTER FORWARD MOTION FROM DENNIS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF BETWEEN 5 AND 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES. GROUND CONDITIONS ARE SATURATED AND RAINFALL RUNOFF WILL BE RAPID...ESPECIALLY NEAR RURAL CREEKS AND STREAMS AND OVER URBAN CONCRETE SURFACES. IF FLOODING IS ENCOUNTERED WHILE DRIVING... REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND AND DON'T DROWN. LATEST RAINFALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RIVER FLOODING COULD BE WORSE THAN IVAN OF 2004...BUT NOT AS SEVERE AS HURRICANE GEORGES OF 1998. AREA RIVERS WILL GO INTO FLOOD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING MIDWEEK. THE RIVER FLOODING IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF DENNIS. ...TORNADO THREAT...USUALLY...THE GREATEST THREAT OF HURRICANE INDUCED TORNADOES IS IN THE OUTER RAINBANDS NORTHEAST OF THE STORM'S CENTER. A SECOND TORNADO THREAT WILL BE CONCENTRATED AROUND THE EYE DURING LANDFALL. OBVIOUSLY...THIS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS DENNIS PLOWS INLAND. TORNADO WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE IMMINENT THREAT. ...NEW INFORMATION... HURRICANE DENNIS MADE LANDFALL BETWEEN GULF BREEZE AND NAVARRE FLORIDA...CLOSEST TO ORIOLE BEACH FLORIDA. HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS WILL BE PREPARED EVERY ONE TO TWO HOURS AND WILL REFLECT THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS OF THE SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT OF DENNIS. THIS PRODUCT WILL BE SHORTENED TO REFLECT AND FOCUS ON THE MOST IMPORTANT INFORMATION AS DENNIS EVOLVES. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 300 PM CDT...OR EARLIER IF NEEDED. |
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heavy bands...nothin dangerous.....we're under a curfew...or I'd drive to Brewton and get some real excitement... hope noone got hurt.... |
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Agreed. This thing is going to have some areas of damage very much like Ivan did -- just not where the reporters are right now. And, as an aside, the NHC did an absolutely fantastic job with this one. Others...not so much. That's why they make the big bucks, fellows. Just hope everyone is safe out there with this storm. |
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Quote: I agree. Well the first thing that I thought was weird was that when it was blowing they kept saying that they must be in the eye...here they are covering hurricanes and they don't even understand the difference between the eye (calm) and the eye wall (big wind). The second thing is - why the heck do they all go stand out in the wind or knee deep in water or wherever they think it looks the worst? That will just convince people that there isn't any reason not to go right down to see a hurricane because hey look you can stand in it. It seems like either they are out there when they shouldn't be, or they're outside trying to convince you that they are in the middle of some terrible storm and yet standing in front of a bush where the leaves aren't even fluttering. I am wondering if the winds weren't lifted off the ground a bit. I agree with you those fellows were not in the middle of what you think of when you think of a serious hurricane: high level winds that are sustained over a long period of time. I think maybe first because it blew through so fast, and second, the high winds were so limited around such a small area. Third, it really is hard to tell just how hard the wind is blowing by seeing someone stand in it on TV, so it could have been blowing harder than it seemed. Finally, I think this storm really did blow itself out a lot before hitting land (starting over an hour before when the radar signature of the eye started looking like a comma with the south side breaking up a bit). |
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Down to a CAT 2.. 96 MPH WINDS as of 5PM... Worse is def over.. No way this thing stays a hurricane til Monday night as earlier prediction. Never say never when dealing with the weather.~danielw |
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nice catch Daniel. can the eyewall finish regerating over land? can those high winds sink? |
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I was just about to say that Clark… kudos to the NHC. Their track remained pretty consistent, and, God willing, the death toll will be dramatically lessened because of it. One positive (and negative) about this storm is that the area it affected was well versed in the reality of hurricanes. Hopefully everyone took it seriously. |
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Quote: Clark, Hank, this question has you guys written on it. I wish I could answer that for you...I would hope it couldn't finish the cycle! |
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I wouldnt be surprised if Dennis is downgraded to a TS at the next Advisory. AS TWC stated it is really losing its punch.. This is really great news.Now we all gottaworry about flooding. |
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Clark: I echo your sentiments. The NHC did an outstanding job on forecasting the track of this storm. I just went over to the NHC archives and pulled up their 5 day forecast graphics. In Advisory #6 (July 6, 2005 5am EDT), they literally had the marker sitting RIGHT on top of the final true landfall spot. No kidding - go pull up the chart and see if you don't believe me. The only thing they had wrong about it was the landfall time - they had predicted 2am Monday. Keep in mind that was 105 hours out. ALSO...keep in mind the storm's location at the time of that forecast was due south of the Dominican Republic. That was a fantastically accurate prediction, all things concerned. And by Advisory #17 (July 8, 5pm EDT...45 hours out) they had nailed landfall at roughly 230pm Sunday. I'm sorry, but for this isolated case, the NHC could not have better predicted the storm. My heart goes out to any who may have suffered losses from this horrific storm, but I do add one footnote for what its worth: the NHC knew where this storm was going, and did a great job of warning people. If there were those who, despite reason and sense decided to stay put on the beach in the path of the storm....well, I'll still be sympathetic to their plight, but I'll also think in my mind it could have been avoided. Again, kudos to the NHC for an excellent forecasting job... |
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Hey Clark… did you ever answer the lightning question? I know that it is atypical for hurricanes, so what do you reason was causing it? |
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The eyewall will simply continue to disintegrate and collapse over land. As it weakens, some of the winds may be transferred down to the surface, but having lost the necessary conditions for development -- energy off of the ocean waters -- there is no chance of regeneration. The eyewall replacement cycle was interrupted in the process, leaving the storm in a transitory state from which it will only weaken. |
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Looks like the rain bands arent following whole way around the eye, the back part looks like drier air is filling on, which qwill weaken it faster. VERY GOOD NEWS Not necessarily. The appearance on radar is much like that of any other storm making landfall and indicative of the effects of land upon the storm. There are less echoes on radar to the east of the storm now, yes, but that is well removed from the center and not near the core. --Clark |
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Must've missed that one, but I'll take a stab on lightning in hurricanes in general. Lightning is caused largely by charged particles aloft...sometimes ice content can be used as a good marker for lightning ability. It's rare with tropical cyclones to see the necessary conditions for lightning due to low ice content and the like, but with the cold convective tops found with Dennis, it's not out of the realm of possibility to have seen some. Most tropical cyclones do have *some* lightning, just not a lot. I'm not as familiar with lightning processes, however, as with other aspects of the field, so perhaps HF or someone can add in more. |
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I had just asked because on TWC, they showed that there was a lot of lightning around the eye, and wondered why.. |
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Just on my way into work and was passed on the interstate in Indianapolis by 20+ power line repair trucks from Michigan heading south. Was impressive to see so many trucks from so far north headed all the way down there. |
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Looks like more trouble in the next week or so with some powerful waves coming off of Africa and also a major wave in the Atlantic that is expected to gain considerable strength. |
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are there any sats on the other two waves out there |
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Well... it is just I have never seen lightning, and another poster here was reiterating the same… which is not to say it can't happen (I have only been through two afterall). Actually, I suppose it would be difficult to locate, as thunder would be most inaudible. I did read once that lightning is observed when a tropical cyclone interacts with mountainous terrain. I am not sure why that would happen under those conditions, and this is certainly not what is causing Dennis to do it. Eh, exploding transformers, lightning… it’s all the same. |
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Quote: That was an amazing thing last year after Charley. Charley hit SW Florida on Friday - early Monday morning I passed a caravan of trucks from Cincinnati that were headed to Charlotte County. They came from all over. |
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Quote: I'm sure the people in Pensacola (who now have to cope with the Florida heat in no ac) will be glad to hear that too, Domino. Last year when Charley tore through Orlando, we had trucks from all over, including Canada and I believe Washington state. (the power guys became the local heroes) Edit: Looks like great minds think alike KC |
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new post everyone |
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I have been monitoring this storm for the past six days, and today after watching the storm approach the Pensacola, Navarre Beach area, I actually got physically sick. I really couldn't understand why I had gotten so sick. I know I have said I went through Andrew in Homestead and I remember it being extremely dangerous to the point we thought we were going to die (we were running from room to room because we lost our roof in the first part of the storm so we had to keep running around the house, each room we went into either the ceiling collapsed or something blew through the door, so we had to keep running, until we came to the last bathroom and then finally the garage because the worst part of the storm had yet to come and we need a safe place, so we got in the car in the garage). So, today I went back and looked at the historical evidence regarding the storm today. I never got a chance to back then and hadn't wanted to until today. What I never knew until today, was that the lowest observed surface pressure and area of the highest winds (with sustained winds 165 MPH and gusts over 200 MPH was located at 288st . My address at the time was 11622 sw 281 st. The point was located between 117 and 288 st. Meaning I had experienced some of the highest winds the storm had to offer. I think even to this day I experience post traumatic stress syndrome from this storm. I just thought I would pass this along just in case anyone else out there was experiencing the same thing. |
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Hey, yes I still get that feeling when I hear the wind scream and that's from when I was a kid and my parents rarely chose to evacuate. We had Cindy pass by (hope they re-classify it a Cat 1 cuz it surely was) and we did not board up or anything b/c we though it would pass well east and it would not be anything. Around 2am, that NOTHING spawned tornadoes and scared me to the point of being physically ill when the winds blew. I feel for anyone that gets any storm, but Dennis sure packed a punch. Is anyone posting from Pensacola Beach/Navarre area??? |
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Hey, beatlesgal ... look for your street in this picture: I lived on 218 street at the time, in the Redlands... http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/1992andy.JPG |
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New Thread posted. Please post there. Thanks. |
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I know the feeling .. it does make you sick. I call it flashback anxiety. I've had it every hurricane season since Andrew .. I could crawl under the bed in a fetal position. And I've come to HATE THE WIND ... I HATE it!! My insides just turn to jello. Thank you for that view of Andrew .. I've never seen it ... I was 5 mins. from Homestead Air Force Base -- 280 St. and 157th Ave., Naranja Lakes .. didn't have a chance. Across the street were 5 mobile home communities, so all that sheet metal peeled off and ended up as a lethal hazards everywhere. Even experienced pilots who had flown in Viet Nam bringing us our salvation and food said it was worse than what they'd seen in Viet Nam. That's where the bomb went off, and where the most deaths in one development occurred. 30% of the Homestead population moved out after Andrew .. big chunk of the population. After last season's terrors, where I had located after Andrew east of Tampa, I finally cracked ... fell apart .. had to get out after 30+ years, and I'm SO grateful I don't ever have to face these again. It becomes a wound you carry with you forever. I'll take winter and snow gladly. I pray for the folks suffering there today ... may God bless them .. what they're facing now is pure heartbreak.. especially after last year, but when you have your life, you have everything .. the rest comes with time. Take care. Star .. in Chicago |
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Ok, I know I am not supposed to post here... but I just want to aknowledge starwise's post, as it strikes so close to home with me. Respect the wind, everyone. I don't see a problem with that |
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This is where we were in Hurricane Andrew! http://www.geocities.com/imabeatleslover/Andrewinfo.html |
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Sorry, I posted a bad link previously... http://www.geocities.com/imabeatleslover/andrewlocation1.JPG Like I said, I don't think you could get any more closer to a direct hit! |