(Meteorologist)

Wed Aug 24 2005 02:48 PM

Model runs

That's a funky soulution that the 06Z GFDL has, having Katrina take a sharp left turn before hitting the east coast of Florida, then getting a ways out into the Gulf. Also interesting to note that after not even strengthening the system to a tropcial storm through the 00Z run, it now strengthens it into a cat 2 hurricane before reaching the far SE coast of FL and then blows the system up into a major hurricane over the Gulf in the 06Z run.

Considering the unrealistic looking SW turn of the storm in the model, the solution has to be considered suspect at best, but it illustrates how little changes can make huge differences in the models, especially for tropical systems.

--edited to change cat 1 to cat 2 in first paragraph

Beach

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 24 2005 02:48 PM

Movement

@ 8am we had 24.4N 76.6W
@ 11am we have 24.7N 76.7W
.3 points N .1 point W , if this continues we will defineatly see a track change.

Big Kahuna

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Aug 24 2005 03:14 PM

Re: Movement

Does anybody have an updated loop of Katrina? I was looking at the RGB floater and its almost an hour old and Ive tried to refresh but nothing happens. Thought it was updated every half hour.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/rgb-loop.html

ftlaudbob

(Storm Chaser)

Wed Aug 24 2005 03:14 PM

Re: Movement

On the 11am they have a hurricane over Ft Lauderdale. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/145105.shtml?3day

(Weather Master)

Wed Aug 24 2005 03:18 PM

Re: Movement

The fact that they are not still sure of an exact center leaves this system open. So far the track points are trending to the right side of of the forecast. As she improves in organization, I think the model runs will improve. I think initial landfall will be about 20-50 miles north of current forecast. Well within the cone of error, though. I would say that for now, all of Florida's coastal areas need to keep a wary eye out. I only hope conditions do not converge to allow her to bomb out past Cat 1.

SirCane

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 24 2005 03:19 PM

Re: Movement

Ok, if Pensacola gets hit for the 3rd time in less than a year all hell will break loose in this town. This is unbelieveable. The water is HOT right now. No reason it won't be a hurricane.

CoalCracker

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Aug 24 2005 03:20 PM

Re: Inland Wind Model

For those in central and west Florida trying to get an estimate of wind speed with a hurricane as it passes east to west across the state, check the link below at NHC. Instructions are self explanatory.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutmeow.shtml

Beach

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 24 2005 03:20 PM

Re: Movement

I don't see it going to Ft Lauderdale. A bit more North.
Look at the Visible:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

Click on the Trop Frcst Points.
Look at the direction that the storm is pointed.
Probably West Palm.

Bloodstar

(Moderator)

Wed Aug 24 2005 03:21 PM

Re: Movement

The only real danger of a bombing storm that I can see is if the storm tracks NW and doesn't take the hard turn until later. I think the best way to visualize this, the further north the storm lands the stronger it will be. As it is The storm seems to be moving fairly quickly. So, would hedge my bets against any bombing in the atlantic.

97L seems to be moving just south of west at about 17.2N 41W. It looks like a sheared TS, but no worries, either it will get together, or it won't. but I'm starting to think that it may trek west for a while. Which isn't what I expected from this storm.

Nothing else seems organized, Some nice showers around 12N 55W or so, and there is the wave in the Carib. But neither of those look promising. I think there is a wave coming off africa as well, but that's nothing to worry about for now
-Mark

(Weather Master)

Wed Aug 24 2005 03:24 PM

Re: Movement

Actually the August 26 12Z position is dead on top of FT Lauderdale as a Cat 1.

(Weather Master)

Wed Aug 24 2005 03:28 PM

Re: Movement

The only reason I worry about bombing is that this storm is suppose to slow a bit. It does not seem likely; but intensity forecasting is still not very good. I can't see perfect conditions to allow this right now, though. A Cat 2 system at initial landfall would not surpise me, though. I don't know if it would have time to get above that; but, I am not willing to discount the possibility with the way systems have gone this season.

Margie

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Aug 24 2005 03:33 PM

Re: Movement

Hey, pcola, check out the NHC track at the top of this thread LOL.

Well it is certainly too far out to say too much right now, but next week could be interesting.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Aug 24 2005 03:34 PM

Re: Movement

Lets hope it only makes it to Cat 1. The forcasted path takes it right over my house, luckly in SW, not SE FL. If this thing does rapidly intensify, which isn't likely right now, and follow the forcasted path, I could be in for a pretty good storm. I just pray that ULL keeps interfering with its development and all we get is a day of rain.

Genesis

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 24 2005 03:35 PM

Re: Movement

Bad news for the gulf if the projected path verifies - the AVN is forecasting highly favorable conditions for strengthening (low sheer) starting Saturday... and given the near-90F water temps, that is NOT a good thing.

ftlaudbob

(Storm Chaser)

Wed Aug 24 2005 03:38 PM

Re: Movement

Right now I am under a TS warning and a hurricane watch.Things should start to go down hill tommorow.The worst should be early Fri. to about noon.People here are just starting to hear about Katrina,and the stores are starting to get very busy, as I will be.

(Admin)

Wed Aug 24 2005 03:50 PM

Re: Movement

Really isn't too much to disagree with on the NHC track, there's a good case for it. Still cone of error is pretty large. Unfortunately, we'll have to wait and see if it holds after the later model runs with the new NOAA data.

But, right now I don't see any huge reason to doubt the NHC track.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 24 2005 03:59 PM

Re: Movement

Hey Mike, Maybe I'm way off base here, but do you see the NNW motion Mr. Stewart is seeing? I don't, but maybe I don't have a good fix on the center. I see it moving WNW and at a pretty good clip. I'm focusing on the ball of convection on the NW side. If this is indeed the center, it will be inland by midnite. He must be focusing on a broader center further east. Anyone care to correct the aging eyeballs??

(Admin)

Wed Aug 24 2005 04:09 PM

Re: Movement

Quote:

Hey Mike, Maybe I'm way off base here, but do you see the NNW motion Mr. Stewart is seeing? I don't, but maybe I don't have a good fix on the center. I see it moving WNW and at a pretty good clip. I'm focusing on the ball of convection on the NW side. If this is indeed the center, it will be inland by midnite. He must be focusing on a broader center further east. Anyone care to correct the aging eyeballs??

It's hard to tell with how the storm is pulling together now, looking on radar and on the visible satellites, it's really a judgement call. It's probably borderline NW/NNW.

Dry air is still giving it fits right now, and will keep it from going to strong too quickly.

If you see anything different let me know. I'm checking for persistant movment, and more recon points when the new plane arrives (Should be soon)

Registered only posting is on for talkbacks today. You can register a new user here if you'd like to chime in on Katrina.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Aug 24 2005 04:17 PM

Re: Movement

Quote:

I'm focusing on the ball of convection on the NW side. If this is indeed the center, it will be inland by midnite. He must be focusing on a broader center further east. Anyone care to correct the aging eyeballs??

I'm not sure if I'm correct, but I don't believe the convection you were talking about is the center. The last couple frames show the clouds dying off. It looks like, to me, that it was convection trying to wrap around the center, but is having problems with dry air. Just my opinion, anyone elses?

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 24 2005 04:23 PM

Re: Movement

OK, thanks. In trying to peek under the deep convection, I'm keeping my eyes focused on the north edge of the mass. I'm noticing that while it is moving northward, its beginning to nudge to the left, meaning a bit more toward the west. But you're right it is a judgement call right now, and the cloud tops have warmed a bit as its consolidating. The center is still in its formative stage. Just wondering if I should throw the outdoor chairs in the pool here in south Brevard County! This gal could blow up in a hurry if she stays over water another 36 hours! Cheers!!

scottsvb

(Weather Master)

Wed Aug 24 2005 04:27 PM

Re: Movement

Just a quick note and will post more later.....the center seems to continue to reform more to the NE of the previous position. Center seems to be near 25.4N and 76.7W. Movement erraticly off to the NW. Better consolidation now on the western side moving west. Nice banding to the E and SE. Open SW but should fill in later tonight. Still on projected forcast track though slightly faster over the past 24 hours. Expect a slowdown this evening to near 5mph and it cold even meander the next day or 2 before a migration off to the west or wsw late Thursday into Saturday. I will post a complete forcast track in a couple hours but its still pretty much the same. The new 12z GFS isnt too far off but maybe alittle to far east by 100 miles on days 4-5 over florida.

LoisCane

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Aug 24 2005 04:42 PM

Re: Movement on RADAR...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_N0Z_lp.shtml

seems pretty steady more west than northwest and... blow ups on NRL all over in all areas

think that banding is slowly underway and this will be a very "pretty" storm just before landfall.. photogenic

however if it does slow down over warm temps all bets are off on how strong it is at landfall

lastly.. on nrl and wv loop you can see top of storm is sort of flat as it expands in other directions

LoisCane

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Aug 24 2005 04:44 PM

pocket of dry air

pocket of dry air visible on ramsdis just to east of the storm which is why it looks the way it does.. a spin there, maybe the original ull that is now moving west towards florida

been battling that dry air though it's not a lot.. still it is there

only thing keeping it from being totally filled in and wrapped

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Aug 24 2005 04:44 PM

Re: Movement

Quote:

blow up in a hurry if she stays over water another 36 hours! Cheers!!

It has a chance if it filters out the remaining dry air and that ULL completly goes away. I would not put the chances very high for this thing to hit hurricane status too long before landfall, though. So I doubt its going to have very long to blow up if its going to try.

zacros

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Aug 24 2005 04:53 PM

Re: Movement

Even it reached hurricane status prior to making landfall, I would think the windfield would be relatively small and the storm surge minimal at best. It just doesn't have enough time to develop a big wall of water.

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 24 2005 05:13 PM

Re: Movement

Current Radar Loop seems to show WNW to W movement.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml

Daytonaman

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Aug 24 2005 05:20 PM

Re: Movement

Being an amateur my observations may be part of the learning curve but as I look at the different satellite loops, it appears to me that the ULL is pulling a piece of Katrina off with it while the main body of Katrina has moved very slowly to the WNW....???

Rick on boat in Mobile

(Weather Drama Guru)

Wed Aug 24 2005 05:25 PM

movement definitely west

the dry air has moved away... Everything is getting in place for the storm to strengthen, and the radar from Miami is showing a west movement.

If this is in fact the LLC, and if the upper winds are stacked on top of it.....and if the dry air is in fact moving away....

I think it is changing rapidly.

anyone know what the SST's are close to Miami...and then in the Gulf?

Floridacane

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 24 2005 05:32 PM

Re: movement definitely west

Rick The temps I found from the bouy center were 87 and 88 degrees near Miami and 87/88 in the gulf right off of Floridas West coast. The link is provided.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/Florida.shtml

emackl

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 24 2005 05:36 PM

New Low?

This is interesting, am I reading this correctly
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/mm5af/fcst/archive/05082412/8.html

Look like the MM5 is picking up a low tomorrow and trailing Kat with it. If you look at the start time it's tomorrow. Is this what HF was talking about when he said to keep an eye on the storms south east of Kat?

lawgator

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Aug 24 2005 05:39 PM

Re: movement definitely west

Quote:

the dry air has moved away from the hurricane. Everything is getting in place for the storm to strengthen, and the radar from Miami is showing a west movement.

The visible satellite loop shows that the center is still sliding a bit to the north of west. There is a burst of clouds that seems to be heading due west but the center (as I say particularly on the visible loop) seems not to have made as dramatic a turn, yet. Probably will soon. But I don't think it is moving west at the moment.

-- make landfall predictions in the forecast lounge.

Big Red Machine

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 24 2005 05:43 PM

Re: movement definitely west

Quote:

we are getting ready to see her explode...

I think it is changing rapidly.

anyone know what the SST's are close to Miami...and then in the Gulf?

You may be interested in this site, Rick. http://wxmaps.org/pix/atlpot.png
Take a look at that pot of warm water just off the west coast of FL.

-- let's let the Met's decide what will be a problem.

Fair enough Redington, though some already have.

Clark's current blog, "My intensity forecast in the Gulf is similar to the NHC as it enters the Gulf, but I feel like the potential for the storm-relative shear to weaken as the storm begins to move northward plus the very warm waters will result in more intensification than forecast, to a strong category 1"

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 24 2005 05:55 PM

Re: movement definitely west

2:00 seems to be taking longer than normal. Are they waiting on Recon data? Has there been any data messages from this flight yet?

Beaumont, TX

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 24 2005 05:56 PM

Re: movement definitely west

If Katrina tracks over Florida and into the Gulf what day are we looking at next week for a possible second landfall. Could this storm make it as far as Lousiana? Just wondering about a time frame.

(Weather Master)

Wed Aug 24 2005 05:58 PM

Re: movement definitely west

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200512.public.html

2pm is out

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 24 2005 05:59 PM

Re: movement definitely west

2:00 is out

Now 1003mb 45mph NNW 8mph Center reformed again.

(Admin)

Wed Aug 24 2005 05:59 PM

Re: movement definitely west

It's not moving west best I can tell, after looking at the Radar from miami, you might think it. But comparing that to recon position updates, satellite, and just the fact that the range is a bit too far out on the radar to declare a center, I'd call it still northwest.

It's still a Tropical Storm, and I don't expect anything major out of it, here or if it makes it to the Gulf, right now. Northwest, to north northwest still.

Beach

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 24 2005 06:04 PM

Re: movement definitely west

8am: 24.4N 76.6W
11am: 24.7N 76.7W
2pm: 25.2N 77.0W

Overall in 6 hours: .8 N .4W and it is still moving NW @ 8mph
So I wouldn't say it's started it's Westward movement just yet.

(Weather Master)

Wed Aug 24 2005 06:10 PM

Re: Katrina Forms... Hurricane Watches up for East Coast of Florida Vero South

Seeing that the 2:00 advisory seems more of a relocation of the center versus actual movement, I have to wonder if this will cause some track adjustment to the right at 5:00PM. May have a minor effect on the model runs too. Boca to West Palm still looks like the likely landfall to me. No quibble with the NHC on this though. These points are still well within the cone.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Aug 24 2005 06:16 PM

Re: Katrina Forms... Hurricane Watches up for East Coast of Florida Vero South

well radar is deceiving the you know what out of me because it sure looks WNW on this particular loop... I can't see any NNW motion from this loop... zero, zip, nada, none

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_N0Z_lp.shtml

scottsvb

(Weather Master)

Wed Aug 24 2005 06:16 PM

Re: movement definitely west

already posted to Lois that the system is consolidating to the west with the system heading NW. System is getting better organized but dont think it will reach hurricane strength until later tomorrow. Pressure is at 1003mb and should slowly drop thru the evening and more so after that as the dry air completly thins out and the upper low to its sw weakens even more.
With the projected forcast track,,its ahard one for floridians cause of where it will make that turn w or wsw into florida and when. Its basically a speed issue with the system. Currently its been moving alittle faster then forcasted by most models except the better Nogaps. The Nogaps has though been alittle left. The 12zs are out and continue to show a slow movement inland near WPB county from the Nogaps tomorrow night, CMC Friday morning, GFS and GFDL later Friday into Friday night. IF the early Nogaps confirms then I expect a weak hurricane near 80mph making landfall nearWPB County, infact I see it going onshore anywhere from Vero-Ft lauderdale still from a couple days back. IF the GFS confirms a slowdown and movement onshore Friday night then expect a system from 90mph-100mph.
Looking at the data from many sources I will tend to lean towards then middle. Kinda obvious but the hard part is forecasting where it goes after exiting the west coast. I expect first landfall to be around midday Friday-Friday evening with winds around 90mph. A slow w or wsw movement to off Ft.Myers area. It should go down to a strong TS but later Saturday night be upgraded to a hurricane again. It should continue to strengthn possibly up to a Cat 3 by Sunday morning. There is nothing to impead this that I can see. A trough will extend down over the SE US by Sunday and will push the system NNW late Saturday night into Sunday with a bend to the N or NNE somewhere from N of Clearwater-NewPRichie to Cross City later Sunday night or Monday. Again the key will be in the next 48-60 hours on how fast the system comes inland on the east coast of florida. IF faster then it will be a weak hurricane and will make it into the gulf faster and move inline with the NOGAPS model which takes it into the Panhandle of Florida Sunday. Alittle slower will put it in my forecasted path and even slower then me will push this up the peninsula as a TS. Anyways more will be updated late tonight.

scottsvb

Colleen A.

(Moderator)

Wed Aug 24 2005 06:18 PM

Models

Hopefully, with more recon data coming in, the models will become more uniform in nature. There are so many little things that could affect the track one way or the other. Some models have it coming south of Miami and then turning NE back across the state. Others have it out in the GOM and some have it going due west to Mexico.
The longer it takes to make the predicted turn to the W/WNW, the longer it will be out in very warm waters.
As always, time will be the only thing that dictates the final point of landfall.
And of course, people in the watch/warning areas should be prepared by this point. I don't see it bombing out either, but Mother Nature is a fickle lady.

Katie

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 24 2005 06:25 PM

Re: Models

Well, well, I see that Katrina has decided to come and visit us Floridians for the weekend. How sweet of her.

I hope you guys down in Stuart are ready! Or actually anyone down there on the South East Coast. Personally, I hope she doesn't go any farther North as not to disrupt our weather. Naturally, I will be in Lake Placid on Saturday for the Caladium Fesitval - yeehaw. (if Katrina doesn't cancel it)

Skeetobite - are you not using the same maps you had last year? Not sure, but I still enjoy looking at what you have! They are perfect!

From your maps she looks pretty compact...you think Polk County will get any affects if she does come in as far South as WPB or MIA?

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Aug 24 2005 06:28 PM

Re: Katrina Forms... Hurricane Watches up for East Coast of Florida Vero South

OK, I'm posting to myself to tell me that perhaps I was wrong, no, I am wrong, the center from what I can tell on the radar loop is still moving towards the NNW... just a matter of me looking at the loop incorrectly... the center of the system is the second bottom circle on the loop... I sit corrected and presently eating a nice big piece of crow pie...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_N0Z_lp.shtml

Bloodstar

(Moderator)

Wed Aug 24 2005 06:28 PM

Re: movement definitely west

The biggest question about intensity once it reaches the gulf is how much is the inner windfields disrupted by the travel over land. Even as flat as florida is, we're still looking at a relatively small and weak system (hopefully) so it could keep some windspeed, but I think the storm will be slow to intensify in the gulf simply trying to put itself back together.

just my two cents
-Mark

emackl

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 24 2005 06:30 PM

Re: Models

O.K. What's this model?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/KATRINA.track.png

Is it any good? Puts her a little closer to me then ya'll down south...LOL! I don't mind the rain but I worry about her staying out to sea too long.

hurricane expert

(Really Not an Expert)

Wed Aug 24 2005 06:33 PM

Re: Katrina Forms... Hurricane Watches up for East Coast of Florida Vero South

I find that model more accurate than the others with a movement to the NNW it makes it track alittle more comment.

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Aug 24 2005 06:40 PM

Advisories further up E coast eventually?

Remembering last years storms and with Hurricane Floyd, watches/warnings are usually issued for S Fla E Coast first then later issued further up the coast... possibly because S Fla is further East and closer to the storm initially. Can we expect this with Katrina as well? Looks to be taking a similar track to Frances and Jeanne throught 1st landfall.

BTW, UKMET just went wide right

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cg...;hour=Animation

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Aug 24 2005 06:48 PM

Re: Advisories further up E coast eventually?

It looks to me, and I am a layman, that although it is growing in diameter, it's losing some of its strength. Any truth to that?

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 24 2005 06:54 PM

Re: Advisories further up E coast eventually?

BTW, UKMET just went wide right

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cg...;hour=Animation

Do you mean the first landfall or the second landfall?

(Admin)

Wed Aug 24 2005 06:55 PM

Re: Advisories further up E coast eventually?

Quote:

It looks to me, and I am a layman, that although it is growing in diameter, it's losing some of its strength. Any truth to that?

My guess is that it's some of the dry air getting worked in and out, it's elongating East to west now some as well. I think that might be what we are seeing on the Miami radar.

I don't expect it to strengthen all that much more until this settles and persists a bit. The center is still unclear.

* Unofficial Forecasts for Katrina Post yours!

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Aug 24 2005 07:09 PM

Re: Advisories further up E coast eventually?

first still looks on track but the 2nd is hooking up the west coast of fla crossing over the N Peninsula near the big bend area.

Previously, it was tracking the storm across the gulf towards the New Orleans area.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 24 2005 07:10 PM

Re: Advisories further up E coast eventually?

Looks to me that it is following the NHC track well based on visible sat. Besides, NHC tracks 24-36 hours out are pretty darn accurate so I can't argue with that. Broward/Palm Beach landfall area is about right i guess. just how strong?? (for me, shutters or not?)

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 24 2005 07:13 PM

Re: Advisories further up E coast eventually?

Quote:

BTW, UKMET just went wide right

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cg...;hour=Animation

Do you mean the first landfall or the second landfall?

It's getting a little disconcerting sitting here on the Gulf Coast north of Tampa. The 12Z UKMET has now swung with the CMC, GFDL, and GFS toward a much more west coast hugging storm in the GOM which would be deepening just offshore. It'll be interesting to see the 12Z NOGAPs since this model now seems to be the far western outlier once the storm enters the GOM. The GFDL takes KAT to a 105 kt storm off of Tampa from the 06Z run. I can only hope that it follows NOGAPs or turns north while it's still on the peninsula. I'm thinking maybe a GOM track adjustment to the east with the next NHC advisory.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Aug 24 2005 07:30 PM

Re: Advisories further up E coast eventually?

wonder why the models are now shifting to the right (north) after exit from fla. west coast....if this is the case then there could be a major shift in forecast track after it enters the GOM in the 5pm adv.... models turn right?, but i am not sure if i am buying that just yet. Right now this looks like Florida could see more flooding danger from south to north, than anything else!

BUT i should add i think the models just don't have a good handel on the system yet, and like others have said......we will and should have a good picture by late tonight when the G-IV data gets in the runs.....Here's the flight info, which can be found HERE.

lockjaw

(Registered User)

Wed Aug 24 2005 07:33 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

That UKMET thing is pretty alarming....I live ON the beach in St. Pete Beach. The other model this morning (I think CHC) that showed the storm essentially pivoting south of us, then heading north and staying close, was bad enough, but it seemed to be the only one of the models doing that. Now the UKMET looks even worse from my perspective.

If Katrina is moving across the state, toward the GOM, then it is pushed north and west by something...what are your thoughts about how strong that push in the Gulf is going to be? I'm going to have to make a call on shutters or not in a day or so, and the main factor is going to be whether the storm takes a gentle turn in GOM (it passes south of us, then moves west into the Gulf before heading north) or takes a hairpin boomerang turn that put it very near, or right on top of me, TWICE in the same day or so...

(Weather Master)

Wed Aug 24 2005 07:39 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

Quote:

That UKMET thing is pretty alarming....I live ON the beach in St. Pete Beach. The other model this morning (I think CHC) that showed the storm essentially pivoting south of us, then heading north and staying close, was bad enough, but it seemed to be the only one of the models doing that. Now the UKMET looks even worse from my perspective.

If Katrina is moving across the state, toward the GOM, then it is pushed north and west by something...what are your thoughts about how strong that push in the Gulf is going to be? I'm going to have to make a call on shutters or not in a day or so, and the main factor is going to be whether the storm takes a gentle turn in GOM (it passes south of us, then moves west into the Gulf before heading north) or takes a hairpin boomerang turn that put it very near, or right on top of me, TWICE in the same day or so...

All the while over land and maybe 45 mph? worse case west coast is if it comes ashore like in naples then goes out about 50 miles then turns back.

It has to be over the gulf for awhile to get back what it lost over land but i dont think the models have a good handle on it yet.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 24 2005 07:40 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

Now I don't know what to think. First I was gonna throw the chairs in the pool; Now it looks like she's moving due west??!!?? The center was re-located, but the 2pm still says a NNW motion. How can this be? Just a center re-formation deal??

NewWatcher

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 24 2005 07:42 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

I heard that it is not moving west, just seems so. Also i just ran the models
and all of the golbals have moved east quite a bit from yesturday and
earlier today.

(Weather Master)

Wed Aug 24 2005 07:44 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

personally if they keep doing this it may not make the gulf as the GFS has it not even making it there now. and a few others take it just a littl into the gulf.

I still don't think the models have a good handel on it yet till tonight maybe the 18z or 00 runs.

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 24 2005 07:48 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

Pam -

Can you please support w/ a graphic or link?:

Quote:

Also i just ran the models
and all of the golbals have moved east quite a bit from yesturday and
earlier today.

I'd be very interested in seeing that. Thanks!

(Admin)

Wed Aug 24 2005 07:49 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

The latest recon vortex message from a few minutes ago pegs the center around 25.6° N 76.9° W, which may be another reform to the north. Not sure what to make of that yet, I'll probably wait for another report.

So far, the NHC track since this morning has done pretty good. Beyond 24 hours though the doubt still reigns supreme.

I haven't been talking about Gulf impact because I'm not so sure it'll make it that far, and it's pure speculation beyond 36-48 hours as it is.

NewWatcher

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 24 2005 07:51 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

this is the model site

(Weather Master)

Wed Aug 24 2005 07:54 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

well lets hope it keeps reforming north each update and it will miss the whole east coast as if that is correct that is even more west then the update while more north.

One can hope, but not likely to miss the coast. NHC's track is already verifying at least in the short term. - Mike C.

NewWatcher

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 24 2005 07:54 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

Mike,
I know you said you dont know what to make of the new location, but I wanna
try to make you... lol... doesnt this fit in with the globals moving slightly east. If the center keeps moving more north and east then the impact point would move the same, correct?

Kevin

(Weather Master)

Wed Aug 24 2005 07:54 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

I'm impressed with Katrina's satellite signature this afternoon. It's really starting to get that radiated/fanned look associated with the outer cloud pattern, as opposed to yesterday's somewhat restricted looking system.

At this point, I'd like to watch another few hours to determine exactly what direction Katrina is moving in.

(Weather Master)

Wed Aug 24 2005 07:54 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

Agree on the possibility of it not even making the Gulf. Many people seem overly worried about some huge increase in strength when it reaches the Gulf, but if it doesn't turn W or WNW it won't even make the Gulf. People along the east coast(even further north up on the east coast) need to be more worried right now. Let's see what happens at 5 p.m.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 24 2005 07:54 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

Mike:

Those coordinates appear to be the same as those in the 136 pm EDT vortex message, which I've pasted below. Presumably, the NHC took that vortex message into consideration when issuing the 2 pm advisory (which really came out around 2, I believe). I realize it's odd that the NHC did not peg the center at the same location as the vortex message, but unless you're referring to a different vortex message, I don't think it's another re-formation.

Do you have a later vortex message, or are you referring to the one I've pasted below?

URNT12 KNHC 241757
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/17:36:00Z
B. 25 deg 36 min N
076 deg 54 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 30 kt
E. 264 deg 007 nm
F. 257 deg 033 kt
G. 179 deg 008 nm
H. EXTRAP 1003 mb
I. 24 C/ 247 m
J. 25 C/ 245 m
K. 25 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF304 0312A KATRINA OB 06
MAX FL WIND 33 KT S QUAD 17:31:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

Big Red Machine

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 24 2005 07:54 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

Interesting to note that the NWS is currently forecasting gusts up to a possible 61 mph for St. Pete.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.ph...8&map.y=156

I am curious to know if the model runs being discussed earlier were taken into consideration for this forecast.

(Admin)

Wed Aug 24 2005 07:57 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

Quote:

Mike:

Those coordinates appear to be the same as those in the 136 pm EDT vortex message, which I've pasted below. Presumably, the NHC took that vortex message into consideration when issuing the 2 pm advisory (which really came out around 2, I believe). I realize it's odd that the NHC did not peg the center at the same location as the vortex message, but unless you're referring to a different vortex message, I don't think it's another re-formation.

Do you have a later vortex message, or are you referring to the one I've pasted below?

Brad that's the one, double checked it on the site here, the one I got had 18:36Z instead of 17, but may have been a conversion error. Thanks for pointing that out. I still want to see another recon report, though!

(Weather Master)

Wed Aug 24 2005 08:04 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

i dont see how the NWS gets those winds here on the west coast unless this becomes a good cat 1 hurricane before landfall.Gusts to 64-65 would mean the system would have to hold a long time over land.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 24 2005 08:04 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

Quote:

Agree on the possibility of it not even making the Gulf. Many people seem overly worried about some huge increase in strength when it reaches the Gulf, but if it doesn't turn W or WNW it won't even make the Gulf. People along the east coast(even further north up on the east coast) need to be more worried right now. Let's see what happens at 5 p.m.

I agree. The east coast is where the immediate impact will be. The best case for us west coast residents is if the storm stays inland or takes a Frances like track north of TB, which is entirely possible. I just get a little concerned if the storm enters the GOM near Ft Meyers, tracks N-NW, then N. There would be plenty of warm water to go over to reintensify the storm, while hugging the coast. A worst case, probably unlikely, but has some model support now.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Aug 24 2005 08:09 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

latest votex i have is this:
pressure down?
open center of west side

URNT12 KNHC 241957
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/19:49:10Z
B. 25 deg 49 min N
077 deg 05 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 40 kt
E. 44 deg 016 nm
F. 130 deg 039 kt
G. 43 deg 012 nm
H. EXTRAP 1002 mb Pressure
I. 23 C/ 247 m
J. 26 C/ 244 m
K. 26 C/ NA
L. OPEN SW-N
M. E09/8/5
N. 12345/ 1
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 0312A KATRINA OB 10
MAX FL WIND 45 KT E QUAD 18:49:10 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

also here's a great article that came out a few weeks ago.... NOAA HURRICANE RESEARCHERS GEARED UP FOR ANOTHER BUSY SEASON

Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Aug 24 2005 08:10 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

I can't read that. What is the pressure and location?

nevermind, I see it now

(Admin)

Wed Aug 24 2005 08:12 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

Ok the new position is at 25.8°N 77.1°W and pressure is down 1mb. Not quite the reform like I mentioned, but the northerly component still dominates, despite the elongation to the east and west. It'll eventually turn, but probably more along the NHC's track. Radar is still playing tricks because of elongation.

(Meteorologist)

Wed Aug 24 2005 08:12 PM

movement

While the center has occasionally been reforming to the north, that is likely more a function of the internal reorganization of the storm, rather than the steering flow. In the last couple of hours, looking at the system as a whole, the motion appears to be towards the WNW.

Tropics Guy

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 24 2005 08:12 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

Long range Miami radar loop showing a more WNW to W motion now.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml

TG

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 24 2005 08:15 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

Typed this before others answered wanna-be's questions. Didn't mean to duplicate others' posts.

That was 249 pm EDT. Pressure was 1002 mb, location approximately 25.7 (between 25.7 and 25.8) / just west of 77.1. I believe the "L" entry is the character of the eye--technically I think that suggests an open eye, although perhaps in this case just an open center of circulation? I assume there was some type of eye-type feature, because if there weren't then "L" would just contain "N/A" for not applicable.

naples

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Aug 24 2005 08:16 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

Yeah, I checked out the same thing for Naples. Not sure how this is possible unless it is a CAT 1. But Here's what they say about Naples. Friday Night: Rain and thunderstorms likely. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 79. Windy, with a north wind 52 to 55 mph becoming south 40 to 43 mph. Winds could gust as high as 83 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 24 2005 08:20 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

Apparently recon did find an eye forming. From the NHC regarding entry L in the recon reports:

"If the eye is not at least 50% surrounded by a wall cloud, this item and Item M will be reported as 'NA' (Not Applicable)."

Rick on boat in Mobile

(Weather Drama Guru)

Wed Aug 24 2005 08:21 PM

elongation westerly

looking at the system as a whole, you can expect a more westerly component, if the shape of the entire system is a clue to it's direction, which is usually the case, isn't it?

look for a sharper turn west that one might have realized...

the further south...the bigger the danger to all residents that might be affected in the GOM

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 24 2005 08:23 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

I don't get it!!! The cloud tops have warmed considerably during the past 6 hours. How is the pressure falling? Those -70/-80 tops are gone. Looks like possibly multiple centers. She is not that impressive to me right now, and she APPEARS to be booking to the NW. Maybe just a big gullywasher for the SE Florida coast?? This will get sorted out I hope at 5pm. Unless this begins to re-fire she ain't gonna make a strong TS before landfall. Praise God!!

CoalCracker

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Aug 24 2005 08:24 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

12Z GFDL Katrina runs are on the FSU site. Don't buy into it but it shows the system slowing down, intensifying, then crossing the southern tip of Florida into the Gulf. Not a pretty scenario. Believe we'll have a much better handle on the system once the models have digested the data sets from the Hurricane Hunter Recon and NOAA Gulfstream flights.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs

(Meteorologist)

Wed Aug 24 2005 08:25 PM

intensity forecast

In addition to the track forecast, it'll be interesting to see the intensity forecast on the next update. The 12Z GFDL really explodes the system starting tomorrow, but its track is slower and further south than most of the models I have seen (with the exception of the MM5) and it actually passes Katrina over the Keys, so the center never really has to deal with land in that model solution until it hits the FL Gulf Coast at 120 hours. The SHIPS is more conservative but still brings it up to hurricane strength at 36 hours before the forecast landfall.

While the center of the system is now well-embedded in the overall convection, there appears to be some dry air that it needs to work out of its system before having an opportunity to rapidly intensify.

Susan in Jupiter, FL

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Aug 24 2005 08:25 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

Someone earlier had mentioned their prediction of it landing 20-50 miles more north than NHC prediction. Anybody have any more ideas on that?

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 24 2005 08:25 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

For those in S Florida

Broward County has closed public schools for Thursday and Friday

(Weather Master)

Wed Aug 24 2005 08:27 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

If the new position is at 25.8/77.1, the storm would have to make a hard left turn due west right now to come ashore at 26.1/80.1 where they had it going in at as of 11 a.m.

Needs .3 N but 3.0 W to make the landfall at 26.1/80.1(based on 11 a.m.).

I guess the track will be moving north for sure.

(Weather Master)

Wed Aug 24 2005 08:28 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200512.marine.html

5PM is coming out

(Weather Master)

Wed Aug 24 2005 08:30 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

Tropical storm center located near 25.6n 77.2w at 24/2100z
position accurate within 30 nm

present movement toward the northwest or 325 degrees at 8 kt

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Aug 24 2005 08:31 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

Looks like Appalachicola has the bullseye once it enters the gulf.

(Weather Master)

Wed Aug 24 2005 08:33 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

NW at 9 means it is going faster and will move up the time it hits land.

Also they have it faster out in the gulf not much track change;

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 24 2005 08:33 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

Quote:

Looks like Appalachicola has the bullseye once it enters the gulf.

what are the chances hurricane warnings going up for miami dade county tonight or tomorrow before 8?

(Meteorologist)

Wed Aug 24 2005 08:34 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

While the doomsday scenario of the 12Z GFDL is unlikely, it does seem to indicate that conditions will be favorable for significant strengthening if the system can spend a sufficient amount of time over water. The scenario where the system gets hung up near or over the peninsula would be bad news as far as heavy rain is concerned, but would potentially save someone from having to deal with a landfalling major hurricane at some point.

Old Sailor

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 24 2005 08:35 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

Agree with you there Steve last few frames , lost the high top clouds, be interesting to see what NHC does with 5:00 PM track.

Rabbit

(Weather Master)

Wed Aug 24 2005 08:35 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

i am now under a TS watch

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Aug 24 2005 08:36 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

TROPICAL STORM KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005
... KATRINA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR FLORIDA...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

(Weather Master)

Wed Aug 24 2005 08:36 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

old sailor its been out 10 misn now Tropical storm center located near 25.6n 77.2w at 24/2100z
position accurate within 30 nm

little change in track across the state.

(Weather Master)

Wed Aug 24 2005 08:40 PM

Here is your answer

A Hurricane Warning will likely be issued for portions of the Hurricane Watch area later this evening.

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 24 2005 08:41 PM

Re: Here is your answer

Thank you this is really helpful information, because my building closes down during a warning and I am the middle of a huge project!

(Admin)

Wed Aug 24 2005 08:42 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

Wow, the NHC is banking on a hard left turn in fairly short order. Which is definitely possible judging by the elongation and the tendencies on Radar. I'll be watching for a more defined movement to the west for sure.

They did move the long end of the forecast track quite a bit to the right up into the Panhandle, with trends like they are, it might be further later as well. Katrina is going to be one of those that keep you guessing. I'm going to be monitoring the NHC's track vs real track strongly over the next several hours into tomorrow.

(Weather Master)

Wed Aug 24 2005 08:44 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

what is with nogaps no 12z run i like that model and its not around.

AgentB

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 24 2005 08:45 PM

Re: Here is your answer

5pm is out, and track/intensity still looking about the same. Katrina was looking a bit more organized to me on the vis sat this afternoon, but I didn't see any signs of rapid intensification. On the WV loop you can see her starting to get pulled to the west a bit more than she has been.

(Weather Master)

Wed Aug 24 2005 08:46 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

Yeah Mike, Katrina better have some good driving skills because it's a very hard left very soon in the Atlantic and then it's a hard right in the Gulf.

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Aug 24 2005 08:47 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

What trends will keep it to the east of Pensacola? Is there a front or steering current that will deflect it from us?

(Weather Master)

Wed Aug 24 2005 08:48 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

Well finally found the 12z Nogaps and it is still more west then the NHC so we will have to see.

Genesis

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 24 2005 08:49 PM

Re: Models

Quote:

O.K. What's this model?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/KATRINA.track.png

Is it any good? Puts her a little closer to me then ya'll down south...LOL! I don't mind the rain but I worry about her staying out to sea too long.

That's the MM5, which has done a pretty abysmal job of forecasting this year...

The move to the right out early next week on the latest NHC package is something on the order of 250 miles!

That's a HUGE move for a single update package, and illustrates that the models - and the NHC - really don't have a solid handle on this thing yet. Looking at the latest model runs it appears the NHC is splitting the difference between the UKMET and NOGAPS... there is a huge divergence between them. MM5 appears to be to the right too, but it hasn't verified this year on anything...... of course you know what they say about past performance and future results!

(Weather Master)

Wed Aug 24 2005 08:52 PM

Re: Models

i think the nogaps and the gdfl is what the NHC is using to keep it out over the gulf awhile.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc2...;hour=Animation

Shows even more of a SW turn when over Florida so i guess the NHC went in the middle of them all.Still i think its a larger cone then some other storms.

ROB H

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Aug 24 2005 09:00 PM

Re: Florida Straits?

The 5PM Advisory says the center wil be in the Florida straits Thursday night.
How can that be?

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 24 2005 09:04 PM

Re: Florida Straits?

Rob:

I think the NHC will correct that; obviously the NHC meant the Gulf Stream or the strait between the Bahamas and Florida. (Unless "Florida Straits" has a secondary meaning and means that area in addition to the water between the Keys & Cuba, which I doubt - never heard it.)

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 24 2005 09:04 PM

Re: Florida Straits?

5 PM Disc

It should be pointed out that with SSTs near 31c and a low shear environment...conditions are favorable for possible rapid intensification to occur between now and landfall. This is suggested by the SHIPS model experimental rapid intensification output...which indicates a 57 percent probability of that occurring. The only inhibiting factor is the dry air that surrounds Katrina and has been working its way into the inner-core region and eroding the deep convection. If the dry air mixes out within the next 12 hours...then intensities would likely be higher than the official forecast is indicating.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Aug 24 2005 09:09 PM

Re: Florida Straits?

sure looks like its starting to get that westerly component... also convection starting to build up over the general area of the center.... does have that elongated east to west structure that also sometimes indicates a possible change of direction...

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

zoom in and you decide

(Weather Master)

Wed Aug 24 2005 09:09 PM

Landfall?

Possible landfall has moved a bit farther north from 11 a.m. at Ft. Lauderdale(central Broward) to the Palm Beach/Broward line at 5 p.m..

FireAng85

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Aug 24 2005 09:20 PM

Re: Landfall?

Would it be possible for anyone to make a map with the tracks of Frances, Jeanne and the projected path of Katrina? I am just north of Orlando and not sure what to expect. We lost our east facing roof last year, just wondering if I can compare what we may get to last year......
Thanks!

Rich B

(British Meteorologist)

Wed Aug 24 2005 09:29 PM

Re: Landfall?

Hey folks,
just got in and have had a chance to go over the NHC products, as well as some of the radar and satellite imagery. I think we will see Katrina make the turn to the left pretty smartly within the next 12 hours. This may be accomapnied by some meandering or erratic movement, but should result in a generally westward motion by the middle part of tomorrow. Satellite imagery is showing some hints of this already beginning, as has some of the recon fixes - although they could have been transient centres. Additionally, Katrina is still in the process of organising, whcih she has done quite impressively today, and this will also have some effect on short term motion. As far as intenisty goes, it is a tough call. I like the NHC's discussion, highlighting the possibility for rapid intensification. I dont think we will see this occur in the short term - i.e tonight, as there seems to be too much reorganising going on at the moment. However, once the westward turn has occurred, i think we could see some pretty rapid intensification, and if this occurs, i wouldnt totally rule out landfall as a Cat2. After florida there is so much divergence and spread in the forecast models that at this stage i really wouldnt want to put a pin in it! However, Katrina will certainly be one for you folks over there in Florida to be watching very closely. Official watches / warnings will also likely go out for the west coast of Florida within the next 12 hours.

97L is also still holding its own, and has become rather more organised today. NHC indicates it could become TD13 on Thursday too.

Jamiewx

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 24 2005 09:30 PM

Attachment

Re: Landfall?

Latest Bahamas radar attached, site running very slow as usual. Looks like any more eastward shift to the track once Katrina gets into Gulf will increase the tornado threat to the peninsula.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 24 2005 09:31 PM

Re: Landfall?

Quote:

Would it be possible for anyone to make a map with the tracks of Frances, Jeanne and the projected path of Katrina? I am just north of Orlando and not sure what to expect. We lost our east facing roof last year, just wondering if I can compare what we may get to last year......
Thanks!

Katrina is just a tropical storm not even a hurricane.
so it's difficult to compare with the storms from last year.
Right now, it looks as if the Orlando area will experience a lot of rain and possibly some tropical storm force winds. Unless the track moves further North, your roof should be ok

Clark

(Meteorologist)

Wed Aug 24 2005 09:32 PM

Katrina Weds. pm

I have no updates to make to my thinking from last night on Katrina -- it is behaving exactly as I predicted thus far and still should make landfall about the time projected by myself and the NHC last night, i.e. sometime around midnight tomorrow night.

For the full update, please refer back to the main page or to http://flhurricane.com/blog.php?met=Clark.

Similarly, I have no change to make to my projected track area, though I would tend to favor the eastern edge of that zone; this is in fact slightly west of the current NHC track, though I see no reason to go against their thinking at this time. Intensity might be a tick higher, though. Again, for the full details, see the entry referenced above.

If anything changes, I will post a full update. Otherwise, a minor update can be expected tomorrow with a full track projection for a potential second landfall slated for Thursday night -- or about the time of the first landfall.

emackl

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 24 2005 09:34 PM

Re: Landfall?

Will someone explain what this means:

THE LAST
RECON POSITION CAN BE SEEN AS A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL VORTEX MOVING OUT
FROM UNDERNEATH THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THAT VORTEX MAY END UP BEING A TRANSIENT FEATURE. IF
IT TURNS OUT THAT THE CENTER DOES END UP FARTHER NORTH...THEN THE
FORECAST TRACK WILL HAVE TO BE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD ON THE
NEXT ADVISORY.

What does Transient feature mean? All the talk about possible rapid intensifacation and maybe shifting slightly north makes me nervous. Can someone put it in plain english for me? Thanks

Bloodstar

(Moderator)

Wed Aug 24 2005 09:36 PM

So an Eye-like feature (of sorts) was found in recon?

That's an interesting tidbit that I'm a little confused on, At this point I thought the feature would have been a dry slot wrapping into the convection, but if it is an effort to form an eye (of sorts), then the system is more organized than I would have expected. I think it also gives a heads up that the system could intensify fairly rapidly at any point (particularly during the evening hours).

The turn hasn't happened yet, but as everyone has pointed out, who knows when it will happen.

Even with only 40Kt winds, I'm no longer considering this a weak Tropical Storm. So, I think upper level winds will now play a larger role in steering the storm. hmmmm what are the upper level steering currents at this point?

and is Katrina going to start making it's own environment? (Which I think it already is starting to do....)

-mark

HanKFranK

(User)

Wed Aug 24 2005 09:36 PM

Re: Landfall?

the center jumped north today as it was rounding/interacting with that upper low.. which is now pulling away wsw. katrina is now in the wake of a withdrawing upper low--which is greatly enhancing the outflow. 5pm disco already mentioned the kind of inner core changes that can take place if a solid ring of deep convection can form. waters between florida and the bahamas are about as juiced as anywhere in the basin in terms of heat content... the cat 1 call i made is middle ground between the circulation not consolidating and dry air not mixing out, and what would happen if rapid deepening takes place.
nhc has been adjusting the post-peninsula crossing track to the right today. my earlier call to ms/al is now way left of the official... i'll reset it when katrina is done crossing florida, but i missed the boat with the synoptic pattern. the model consensus has shifted right, but there are still some taking it further out into the gulf. the way things are looking katrina will be all florida, though. clark's panhandle call last night was right on, if this stuff verifies. i hear the fla west coasters discussing how some are taking it off and then up the coast or back in. that looks overdone to me, as the globals that favor it have one of those tarbaby disturbances coming in from the east... those don't look legit just yet.
97L is still being rated as just that. it's definitely got a closed low and a disjointed area of deep convection... which has continued for a couple of days now. it's what i'll call a sheared tropical cyclone. expect it to get the profile necessary for the nhc to rate it, though i've seen features like this before persist for days and all the nhc does is mention that it may become a depression in the outlook.
globals still seeing the feature tailing 97L... some developing it as it gets further west. it's a watcher for around the weekend.
HF 2136z24august

DWard

(Registered User)

Wed Aug 24 2005 09:37 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

As long as it stays as far away from Pensacola. We are still picking up pieces from our 40x60 barn that the rafters blew down the other day during these awful thunderstroms we have been having.

Rick on boat in Mobile

(Weather Drama Guru)

Wed Aug 24 2005 09:45 PM

confused

on what the Miami radar, long range loop is telling me. It is telling me the thing is heading west.......can someone clarify that? What am I seeing?

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 24 2005 09:47 PM

Re: West Coast prep?

HF, you hit a nerve there. As I stated earlier concerning her ragged appearance, she is now showing some rapid blow up of convection near the "center" and in the larger bands around the periphery. This seems to be the beginnings of an intensification phase as those waters are quite warm, warmer than I've seen them in years. I think she's got her shot of geritol and is sparking now. Cheers!

(Admin)

Wed Aug 24 2005 09:50 PM

Re: Landfall?

Quote:

Would it be possible for anyone to make a map with the tracks of Frances, Jeanne and the projected path of Katrina? I am just north of Orlando and not sure what to expect. We lost our east facing roof last year, just wondering if I can compare what we may get to last year......
Thanks!

Here you go.

hurricane expert

(Really Not an Expert)

Wed Aug 24 2005 09:53 PM

Re: Katrina Forms... Hurricane Watches up for East Coast of Florida Vero South

It is just due east of miami florida so if it is going to make that west turn it better do it fast or else am feeling a more northern path of this system

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 24 2005 09:55 PM

Re: Katrina Forms... Hurricane Watches up for East Coast of Florida Vero South

Quote:

It is just due east of miami florida so if it is going to make that west turn it better do it fast or else am feeling a more northern path of this system

yes it almost due east at us... so my question is... are they going to issue hurricane warnings for miami giving that its due east and still going north? Any insight here will be very helpful to me guys. I know you can't stop mother nature but this one has really bad timing for me right now

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Aug 24 2005 09:56 PM

Re: confused

Long range radar is no good for a developing tropical system in finding a center and deciding movement especially when it is daylight and Vis is available

umm... actually radar is great for it, because you can see the inner core.. which is concealed by a higher cloud shield in many cases. -HF

OrlandoDan

(Weather Master)

Wed Aug 24 2005 10:06 PM

Re: confused

The Mets here in Orlando are "watching for a notherly turn". Is this hype or caution?

(Meteorologist)

Wed Aug 24 2005 10:19 PM

latest recon

here is the latest vortex message. This center fix is 5 min north and 12 min west of the last one, which indicates a more WNW movement if this is indeed the same feature that they fixed on last time

000
URNT12 KNHC 242205
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/21:49:10Z
B. 25 deg 54 min N
077 deg 17 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 55 kt
E. 135 deg 009 nm
F. 200 deg 048 kt
G. 137 deg 008 nm
H. EXTRAP 1001 mb
I. 23 C/ 210 m
J. 24 C/ 244 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 1
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 0312A KATRINA OB 14
MAX FL WIND 48 KT SE QUAD 21:46:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
BANDING FROM SE TO W

(Admin)

Wed Aug 24 2005 10:21 PM

Re: confused

Quote:

The Mets here in Orlando are "watching for a notherly turn". Is this hype or caution?

Probably Caution, if it does err to the east we'll be in the NE quadrant of the storm and especially if it slows down over the peninsula. We are in the cone of error, that is not hype.

I tend to expect the NHC track, maybe just a little further north and maybe not so far out into the Gulf.

(Meteorologist)

Wed Aug 24 2005 10:21 PM

Re: latest recon

Interesting to see 55 kt estimated surface winds on that vortex message, though that seems overdone compared to the flight-level winds observed so far and the central pressure.

DennisHerman

(Registered User)

Wed Aug 24 2005 10:22 PM

H warning for Miami-Dade? Anyone have thoughts?

I ask because it will seriously effect my prep tonight. I am the "IT guy" in Miami but live in Broward. Thanks!

CaneTrackerInSoFl

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 24 2005 10:26 PM

Re: latest recon

Quote:

Interesting to see 55 kt estimated surface winds on that vortex message, though that seems overdone compared to the flight-level winds observed so far and the central pressure.

Its obviously started to strengthen. If this holds true, then I think they will bring it up to 50 knots at 8 pm because of the obvious discrepencies with the flight level and the estimated surface winds.

hurricane expert

(Really Not an Expert)

Wed Aug 24 2005 10:27 PM

Re: Katrina Forms... Hurricane Watches up for East Coast of Florida Vero South

The general motion has been NW dont see a W/NW track yet

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 24 2005 10:29 PM

Re: latest recon

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_N0Z_lp.shtml

Anyone notice the "hook" on the area around the center? It appears it is trying to tighten or wrap around...any thoughts? Definitely looking more westerly motion now....8pm Advisory or Recon will clear this up...

My problem with these weak storms is when to make the call to put up shutters. It appears this will be one those last minute prep. events. hmm. I think the last Broward County landfall was during the 1950s or 1940s maybe 1947 Cat. 4?

evergladesangler

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Aug 24 2005 10:35 PM

Re: latest recon

Definitely see that hook in the most recent radar images. It almost looks like a w-sw hook.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 24 2005 10:47 PM

Re: latest recon

That experimental Radar is much better than the older version...you can see farther..IMO.

Big Kahuna

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Aug 24 2005 10:50 PM

Re: latest recon

sometimes take a step back and look at the big picture, close up images can be deceiving.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE BECAME TROPICAL STORM KATRINA
AT 24/1200 UTC. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA AT
24/1800 UTC WAS NEAR 25.2N 77.0W OR ABOUT 30 MILES/50 KM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS...AND ABOUT
200 MILES/320 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF FLORIDA. IT WAS MOVING NORTHEAST 17 KT . THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1001 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC.....

I guess Not everything your read is right also.

(Weather Master)

Wed Aug 24 2005 10:51 PM

Shutters?

Same problem here Justin. A weak storm for now, but what about tomorrow? Shutters are still on hold and it is almost dark. So, up early to check out the situation in the morning. No one seems to have done any preps. and the stores/gas stations aren't even busy. I hope it doesn't intensify quickly, because if it does, many people will be caught off guard.

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 24 2005 10:56 PM

Re: Shutters?

sorry to ask again, but no one replied, but i need to make a decision on my plans for tomorrow ..

given Katrina current location and her direction at this moment, does anyone think miami dade county will issue hurricane warnings.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 24 2005 10:59 PM

Re: Shutters?

Yeah, Max Mayfield said on NBC 6 to prepare for a Cat. 1 and hope that it stays a TS. Shutters are on the side of the house waiting (ugh i hope i don't have to put them up!) oh btw, i would say that this is the core of the storm beginning to form as we speak, please tell me im wrong:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_N0Z_lp.shtml

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 24 2005 11:00 PM

Re: Shutters?

wait until 11pm tonight...the advisory at 5pm said warnings *may* be necessary later tonight.

tolling

(Registered User)

Wed Aug 24 2005 11:01 PM

Re: Shutters?

Yeah, it's eerily peaceful here. No ambience of electric drills yet.

Dunno if people even know what's going on.

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 24 2005 11:01 PM

Re: Shutters?

Quote:

wait until 11pm tonight...the advisory at 5pm said warnings *may* be necessary later tonight.

thanks.. unfortunately can't wait until then, so i might as well prepare like this building won't open tomorrow.

Big Kahuna

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Aug 24 2005 11:04 PM

Re: Shutters?

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA CITY...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER THIS EVENING.
heres alink for watchs and warnings

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCVAT2+shtml/242033.shtml

Margie

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Aug 24 2005 11:15 PM

noaa sat images

Noticed yesterday the web site for the noaa sat images seems to have been upgraded and there are some changes to the way the web page loads.

Just noticed the radar option to overlay the sat image. I'm wondering, is this new, or did I just not notice this option before? I really like how you can compare what is showing in the various sat images with the long-range radar.

Also it looks like by late tonight we'll be able to see pretty close to the center of the TS on long range radar.

Susan in Jupiter, FL

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Aug 24 2005 11:18 PM

Re: Landfall?

I live in Jupiter, Palm Beach County, and they just came on TV-12 and said that they screwed up regarding where the eye was. He said they will have the new tracking at 8 p.m., and that it is directly east of West Palm Beach.

(Meteorologist)

Wed Aug 24 2005 11:21 PM

CDO

Looks like Katrina is trying to develop a CDO around the presumed center. There is also something resembling an eye on the long-range radar out of Miami. This could become a hurricane sooner rather than later if these features persist, though the CDO is still pretty small and there is still some dry air lurking around that could disrupt things.

craigm

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 24 2005 11:21 PM

Re: Shutters?

Justin in Miami - I think you found the vortmax on the eastern edge of this loop, not the broader clear area, but the (small tight circulation) just below Great Abaco with an apparent NW motion. It could be vorticity spinning off as the system develops. I've been wrong before. Here is your link again:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_N0Z_lp.shtml

(Meteorologist)

Wed Aug 24 2005 11:26 PM

new vortex message

Here is the latest vortex message. Still a pretty weak system for something with a closed eye:

000
URNT12 KNHC 242318
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/23:05:30Z
B. 25 deg 59 min N
077 deg 28 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 30 kt
E. 215 deg 016 nm
F. 273 deg 035 kt
G. 216 deg 019 nm
H. EXTRAP 1001 mb
I. 21 C/ 246 m
J. 24 C/ 246 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C16
N. 12345/ 1
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF304 0312A KATRINA OB 17
MAX FL WIND 48 KT SE QUAD 21:46:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 25 C, 215 / 11NM
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
RAGGED EYEWALL

FireAng85

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Aug 24 2005 11:28 PM

Re: Landfall?

Thank You Very Much! My kids are saying, "it's not coming anywhere near us!". They don't understand that the straight line is just the center and there are hundreds of miles of bad weather around the center. They remember all too well Frances, Charley and Jeanne, so now I can show them where the centers of those storms were and how much fun we had here from them. Now they get it!
Thanks again!

FlaRebel

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Aug 24 2005 11:28 PM

Clark!!!

I know it's very early, but what is your best guess right now, based on the weather patterns, for us here in Tallahassee?

Edit: lots of rain, probably enough to allow us to set a new all-time record for August (we're only about 4" behind after today), and some wind. If it comes in on the NHC track, expect widespread power outages and for the coast to be devestated. We'll have to see if that pans out and make changes if it doesn't look like it will, though. --Clark

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Aug 24 2005 11:31 PM

Re: Landfall?

By my radar and IR Satellite satellite guesstimates, I place the center directly under the rapidly deepening red ball due east of WPB moving NW. Also, it appears to be the tight spin and not the broader spin showing on radar.

Satellite... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

Radar... http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_N0Z_lp.shtml

GuppieGrouper

(Weather Master)

Wed Aug 24 2005 11:33 PM

Re: Tropical Storm path

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

This is a great loop out of Washington State. I think. It is a water vapor and it really shows off the center as well as anything I have seen. I don't have any markers or I would draw circles. It looks to me if it were to continue with no jogs, that Lake O. would have a visitor.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 24 2005 11:44 PM

Re: Tropical Storm path

Storm is moving west per Bryan Norcross quoting the 8pm. Due east of me!

Rabbit

(Weather Master)

Wed Aug 24 2005 11:46 PM

Re: Tropical Storm path

8pm out and movement now WNW; the only change is pressure down to 1001mb and the TS Warning for the central Bahamas has been discontinued

now time for my official forecast: between Stuart and Ft. Lauderdale, 90mph

weatherwatcher2

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Aug 24 2005 11:49 PM

Re: Tropical Storm path

this system is moving much faster than anticipated. Doesnt it seem like they all do that?

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 24 2005 11:50 PM

Re: Tropical Storm path

It appears that is the center considering all the storms are rotating around it now..

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_N0Z_lp.shtml

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Aug 24 2005 11:52 PM

Re: Tropical Storm path

not quite due west per the radar loops IMO but certainly wnw or even just north of due west.... easly to follow center right now... not NW for sure.. interesting to see if it goes wsw down the road as some models hint at due to the building of the ridge... I think one thing that will be critical is just how far west this thing gets out in the GOM.... could be the difference in an AL landfall or PCB landfall.... some still don't think its going into the GOM... I think it will and I think the GDFL might has a good bead on this cyclone, especially if it continues to develop.... stay tuned.... plenty of crow in the freezer...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_N0Z_lp.shtml

OrlandoDan

(Weather Master)

Wed Aug 24 2005 11:52 PM

Re: Tropical Storm path

She really had a burst in the last couple of frames of IR.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Aug 24 2005 11:56 PM

Re: Tropical Storm path

the speed of this system will also be a big factor in where it ultimately ends up... if it slows down then I think it will end up much farther to the east for its second landfall in the GOM... if it can maintain a good speed as it enters the GOM, it will be driven farther to the west per the ridge over time before the ridge starts to break down and the system starts the move to the north and landfall.... this could get quite interesting.... and it will also be interesting to see what the models will do the next day or two... but I bet they change, one way or another....

(Meteorologist)

Wed Aug 24 2005 11:56 PM

18Z model runs

The 18Z GFS is even further to the right than the 12Z run, as it only brings Katrina to the coast and then basically skirts the coast all the way up to NC and then out to sea. This seems unrealistic.

The 18Z GFDL is pretty similar to the 12Z run, though more aggressive if anything. It still predicts doom for the Keys. This also seems somewhat unrealistic as it requires a pretty substantial southward jog at some point.

It'll be interesting to see what the other runs show, though I suspect the 00Z runs will have a somewhat better handle on the center of the system at the initial time.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 24 2005 11:58 PM

Re: Landfall?

Looks like the center is due east of Ft Laud now and still moving W-NW or NW. Looks increasingly like a WPB or slightly further north landfall unless she starts moving W-SW at some point prior to landall. Also, with an early friday am landfall, the storm should start to slow down soon.

Susan in Jupiter, FL

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Aug 24 2005 11:58 PM

Re: Tropical Storm path

I just watched the 8 p.m. update on NHC channel, and it is now heading west at 9 mph. So, I have no idea what Chris Farrell on Channel 12 was talking about. Can't wait to hear his explanation!

HURRICANE EYE

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Aug 24 2005 11:59 PM

Re: Tropical Storm path

8 PM reports movement to the wnw near 26 n 77.6 w , and 5pm was at 25.6n 77.2 w thats.4 n and .4 w seems like a north west movement still to me?

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Thu Aug 25 2005 12:01 AM

Re: Landfall?

7:53 EDT I have the center at 26.02n and 77.65w ~ 159 miles ese of WPB.... moving basically wnw (per radar presentation)

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Thu Aug 25 2005 12:03 AM

Re: Tropical Storm path

the wnw motion only started during the past hour and a half or so as best I can tell.... IMO

(Meteorologist)

Thu Aug 25 2005 12:03 AM

Re: Tropical Storm path

The 5pm update was using a center position that was a little further south than the recon fixes, but the latest update seems to be using the recon center fix. The last few recon fixes have shown a general WNW movement.

(Weather Guru)

Thu Aug 25 2005 12:04 AM

Re: Tropical Storm path

Quote:

the wnw motion only started during the past hour and a half or so as best I can tell.... IMO

ok Frank.. last annoying question from me tonight.. its 8pm... any hurricane warnings going up for miami? I have to leave the office now..... and make a final decision

thanks guys!

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Thu Aug 25 2005 12:11 AM

Re: Tropical Storm path

boy you're asking the wrong guy.... more than likely Miami will be on the southern half of the storm, which normally is not as bad as the NE quadrant.... right now I'd say somewhere between WPB and FL... but that only if it continues on its present path.... it's sat presentation continues to look better over time, its over some darn hot water, convection continues to build near the center....... could it make Cat 1 hurricane, I would think so, will it.... I'm not smart enough to tell you... perhaps one of the mets could better address your question.... bottom line.... I always listen to what the NHC is forecasting... they're the best of the best... good luck to all the floridians in the path of this one... hopefully it won't get much stronger

regardless not much difference between a strong TS or a Cat 1 storm....

HURRICANE EYE

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Aug 25 2005 12:12 AM

Re: Tropical Storm path

Well , i will agree that it sure does look to be moving wnw on radar, if it keeps that track to the 11 oclock advisory, id say hello wpb.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Thu Aug 25 2005 12:16 AM

Re: Tropical Storm path

yeah we should be able from here on out be able to see exactly where it's going with the radar presentations..... and whether or not it is going to slow down or change directions... the internet is a wonderful tool for us weather junkies....

Jeffmidtown

(Weather Guru)

Thu Aug 25 2005 12:18 AM

Re: Tropical Storm path

Just a few observations and newsbits from where I sit here in Atlanta......
1) Looks like once Kat crosses over into the GOM, it's almost an immediate right turn to the Fl Peninsula....a question, would the front that moved through North Georgia have anything to do with the steering of this storm?

2) According to the Sun-Sentinel, South Palm barrier island and all mobile home park residents are ordered to evacuate by 1pm Thursday.

3) If the track takes Kat anywhere near Atlanta, look for moderate to major delays in flying in and out of Atlanta...espcially Delta and Air-Tran.

DebbiePSL

(Weather Guru)

Thu Aug 25 2005 12:22 AM

Re: Tropical Storm path

Just saw on TWC Dr Lyons say it is now moving WNW Also Jim Cantore is in Miami.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Thu Aug 25 2005 12:23 AM

Re: Tropical Storm path

interesting... check this out...

using this radar presentation the center does appear to be heading DUE WEST directly for FL.... hmmmm

FL - Fort Laud... (didn't want anyone to think I meant florida.... I think thats a given perhaps... hehe)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Aug 25 2005 12:25 AM

ShortWave IR Loop

Did something happen with the shortwave IR on NOAA? The storm, and really almost all convection on the screen, went dark blue after being fairly weak for a while. Is this a sign that Katrina is strengthing even more? It just seems odd that all of a sudden all this dark blue shows up where it had all been light blue.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Thu Aug 25 2005 12:26 AM

Re: Tropical Storm path

just noticed that the NWS experiemental radar has not updated since 7:53 EDT... the NWS radar is updating and that is the presentation showing the due west motion attm, IMO only

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Aug 25 2005 12:30 AM

Re: Tropical Storm path

Agree, I've been watching the Noaa Radar out of Miami and the Storm is moving due West right now.

LI Phil

(User)

Thu Aug 25 2005 12:34 AM

katrina radar

this should show movement pretty well:

Ryan

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Aug 25 2005 12:35 AM

Re: Tropical Storm path *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

OrlandoDan

(Weather Master)

Thu Aug 25 2005 12:40 AM

Re: Tropical Storm path

I could swear (maybe not) but the last frame of the radar makes it look like she is going WSW.

(Weather Master)

Thu Aug 25 2005 12:40 AM

Re: katrina radar

That motion still looks wnw at the center to me. Center is still filled in by the looks of the radar presentation. Close to west though. Boca to West Palm looks to be the spot to me.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Aug 25 2005 12:41 AM

Re: katrina radar

Ok, question for the experts. In my 25 plus years down here in Florida, I don't ever recall hearing of a closed eyewall (Per the recon report) with a 48kt system. Is this an indication of a pulse cycle with strengthening about to occur or?

The other question is about the potential for the storm to parallel the West Coast of Florida which would be horrendous, IMHO. What do the models show as far as the low moving through the Southeast in time to catch Katrina in the GOM and turn it back NE? The models on this storm are all over the place after it makes initial landfall, so as usual, your input is appreciated.

Thanks again in advance for all of the great information and education I get from all of the pros here.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Thu Aug 25 2005 12:42 AM

Re: katrina radar

two things obvious to me from this presentation... center looking better on radar, deeper convection building around it, and its moving just north of due west.... last wobble was west, see what the next couple of wobbles bring...

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Aug 25 2005 12:51 AM

Re: katrina radar

No doubt a slight north component but mostly west now. Center is looking better on radar. Looking to see a slow down in forward speed the next 6-12 hrs. This thing could sit off the east coast & pound it like Frances (albeit hopefully weaker).

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Thu Aug 25 2005 12:54 AM

Re: katrina radar

Using the NWS experiemental radar this is what I have plotted
at 7:53 it was at 26.02n and 77.65w
at 8:44 it was at 25.99n and 77.83w

not much north component in the past 51 minutes.... off radar

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Aug 25 2005 12:54 AM

Re: katrina radar

The weather patterns are not set up for it to sit off the coast.
It's going to keep moving. There has been a strong Westerly flow
over all of Florida the past several days.

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Aug 25 2005 12:56 AM

Re: katrina radar

I see what appears to be a south of west movement on radar but also note that this is probably an illusion due to temporary weakenning of showers/storms near the center. I am sure it is actually moving west or just north of west still

CaneTrackerInSoFl

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Aug 25 2005 01:03 AM

Re: katrina radar

I noticed the same exact thing. Whether or not this is just a weakening of the showers and I guess, an ERC, it needs to be watched.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_N0Z_lp.shtml

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Aug 25 2005 01:05 AM

Re: katrina radar

Quote:

The weather patterns are not set up for it to sit off the coast.
It's going to keep moving. There has been a strong Westerly flow
over all of Florida the past several days.

Models slow it down. Its about 160 miles east of Ft Laud. Landfall per NHC is around 5 am Friday. Do the math.

(Weather Master)

Thu Aug 25 2005 01:09 AM

Movement

I agree, seems due west or even a hair south of west. Looks like the official track and most opinions on here have this storm coming right at me(not a wishcast). My weather station will be up and running as long as I have power. Current pressure is 29.90" and steady.

(Weather Guru)

Thu Aug 25 2005 01:11 AM

Re: katrina radar

Listening to Jim @ hurricanecity on real player while I'm posting here....real interesting thoughts! Makes good point ...Katrina's roots are from XTD10..passed through? You guessed it....Hebert's Box.

I'm not going to engage in the "the storm's moving this way & that" I prefer to not stay glued to radar and watch the wobbles. They're too much...they drive me looney.

NHC is doing a great job (as per usual) and there is no good reason at this time to doubt the forecast track....intensity is another matter.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Thu Aug 25 2005 01:12 AM

Re: katrina radar

well the models might slow it down but Katrina certainly doesn't look to be slowing down very much attm... maybe she's not listening to them just yet... looks to be moving at a decent clip.... I think if it doesn start slowing down soon its going to get to the coast sooner rather than later... its convection is really looking impressive off the latest IR loops...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

Beaumont, TX

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Aug 25 2005 01:14 AM

Re: Katrina Forms... Hurricane Watches up for East Coast of Florida Vero South

Our local meteorolist said there is a high sitting over Texas and Lousiana which will keep Katrina away from us. He thinks the Florida panhandle is in for a landfall (the second one). He also said the gulf waters were at 91 degrees, the hottest he has ever seen it. After Katrina crosses Florida and heads for her second landfall how intense do you all think the storm will become in the Gulf before she hits?

(Moderator)

Thu Aug 25 2005 01:15 AM

Re: katrina radar

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005 edited~danielw

..KATRINA BEGINS TO TURN MORE WESTWARD...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT KATRINA HAS BEGUN TO
TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND IS NOW MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AND WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATRINA HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Aug 25 2005 01:16 AM

Re: katrina radar

It may move a bit faster or a bit slower, my point was simply that it wasn't going to sit ans spin off the coast w/o moving.
Didn't mean to step on any toes. I'll get my calculator out....

Daytonaman

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Aug 25 2005 01:16 AM

Re: katrina radar

Most of today there has been a lot of discussion regarding the appearance of the eye...being the area with no precip on the radar....after looking at the LRRidge radar and taking off the topo...the center actually appear to be to the "EAST" of the above mentioned eyelike feature....have I been looking at the wrong thing this evening?
Thanks to all who work so hard to teach those of us without the knowledge but the thrist to know.... Long Range Ridge Radar in Miami
Meant to the east not the west...

twizted sizter

(Weather Guru)

Thu Aug 25 2005 01:23 AM

bulletin

The Straits? Is that a typo like earlier?

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Thu Aug 25 2005 01:25 AM

Re: katrina radar

wxwatcher2 I agree with you ... I don't think it's going to sit off the east coast of FL, my point is that I think it has been moving faster than the models or the NHC forecasted during the evening hours.... and I think there will ulitmately be a direct corrolation between forward speed and when it makes its second landfall... slow speed = eastern panhandle and points east, faster speed = AL/western panhandle.... remains to be seen what she has in mind for later on tonight relative to speed....

dolfinatic

(Weather Guru)

Thu Aug 25 2005 01:26 AM

Re: bulletin

I believe they are referring to the area between the bahamas and florida. It is actually the gulf stream corridor but i think they refer it to the straits as well.

(Meteorologist)

Thu Aug 25 2005 01:30 AM

Re: katrina radar

There was a clear area on the radar that corresponded with the center earlier, but it disappeared about 90 minutes ago. There is still intense convection in that area though, based on the satellite and radar.

lunkerhunter

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Aug 25 2005 01:31 AM

Re: katrina radar

the IR loop shows a hurricane signature, not a TS. the dry air is gone and the feederbands are in place. I think we're going to see rapid deepening.

(Weather Guru)

Thu Aug 25 2005 01:34 AM

Re: katrina radar

Maybe some good news (short term atleast) - from Jim Williams @ hurricane city...eye of Katrina is 16mi. in diameter (from latest recon reports)

incorrect information-removed~danielw

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Aug 25 2005 01:34 AM

Re: Movement

WXMAN and all other Broward and Palm Beach members....it looks like it will be our turn for a hurricane....darn they usually go north of us...but not this time! lol

warnings tonight most likely...when does everyone plan to put up shutters?

(Moderator)

Thu Aug 25 2005 01:35 AM

Re: bulletin

Quote:

I believe they are referring to the area between the bahamas and florida. It is actually the gulf stream corridor but i think they refer it to the straits as well.

You are correct. The area of water between the Southern tip of FL, and Cuba is referred to as the Florida Straits.
Straits...as it is spelled, denotes a body of water.

lunkerhunter

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Aug 25 2005 01:35 AM

Re: katrina radar *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

(Weather Guru)

Thu Aug 25 2005 01:43 AM

Re: Movement

Better safe than sorry....

Get your act in gear now....I personally wouldn't want to be installing shutters with or in deteriorating weather. Get them up ASAP...that's what you got em' for right!

dolfinatic

(Weather Guru)

Thu Aug 25 2005 01:45 AM

Re: katrina radar

The east- west elongation is less now. Storm is getting more symettrical. Sorry about spelling

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Aug 25 2005 01:48 AM

Re: Movement

Point taken....tomorrow is the day probably around noon my decision will be made. Oh, and the Hurricane Track guys are on their way to Deerfield Beach:

http://hurricanetrack.com/

(Weather Master)

Thu Aug 25 2005 01:52 AM

Re: Movement

State Farm built a hurricane demonstration house in Deerfield Beach. They gave it to the city a couple of years ago. I think it is stilled tricked out with sensors to record what a hurricane does to it if hit.

(Weather Guru)

Thu Aug 25 2005 01:56 AM

Re: Movement

Just watching Steve Lyons on TWC just noticed that time line in "cone" has position just offshore "Fri AM" that being duly noted, does anyone remember how slow the expected slow down is?

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Thu Aug 25 2005 01:57 AM

Re: Movement

past 45 minutes or so the system sure seems to have slowed down somewhat... it was moving at a pretty good clip earlier tonight, that has slowed down considerably per the latest radar loops...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_N0Z_lp.shtml

(Moderator)

Thu Aug 25 2005 01:58 AM

Posts

Before you post: Before posting, please ask yourself the following question: "Am I making a post which is informative, or interesting or adds to thoughtful discussion on any level? If is a reply, does it offer any significant advice or help contribute to the conversation in any fashion?" If you can answer "yes" to this, then please post. If you cannot, then refrain from posting.

What are the rules?
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/faq.php#rules

Clark

(Meteorologist)

Thu Aug 25 2005 02:04 AM

Re: Movement

To something around 5mph, most likely. Remember -- at 100mi offshore, a storm moving at 10mph will make landfall in 10 hours, but one moving at 5mph will make landfall in double the amount of time. The storm is currently 150 miles due east of Ft. Lauderdale -- at an average rate of speed of 7.5mph, that's 20hr to landfall. A slowdown to 5mph takes it to 30hr, which is about the projected landfall point...so somewhere between 5-7.5mph is the likely speed as it gets to Florida.

As noted last night, the projected forward speed from then -- and the current speed now -- suggests that a second Florida landfall is more likely than any other scenario. Again, what held last night still holds -- a faster speed now will result in a landfall point in north Florida further west...and this can result from the difference between 5mph & 8mph, as small as that may seem. As of now though, something in the central Panhandle area, generally from Destin to Apalachicola is the best bet. The threat to Louisiana is nearly gone, the threat to Mississippi is diminishing, and the threat to Alabama is there but moreso for a tangential impact than a direct impact.

We'll see what this storm does in the next day and go from there. About the only thing I'm 100% certain of is that it will not move directly into the northern Keys as a strong category 4 hurricane.

(Weather Master)

Thu Aug 25 2005 02:06 AM

Re: Posts

Going to bring up the initials JB. He thinks a Cat 2 system is not out of the question. I think that is possibility. Low to mid Cat 2. my personal feeling is a Cat 1 pushing Cat 2 if the system goes on the current forecast track. If, for some reason, the path gives her more time over water before landfall then currently forecast, i would be worried about a major system. Can not see that with the current forecast.

javlin

(Weather Master)

Thu Aug 25 2005 02:10 AM

Re: Movement

I noticed that also Frank as a poster mentioned earllier E-W elongation is gone.Also the the ULL out front is moving away at a good clip I think enhancing some of the outflow possibily on the W side.Then if you look at the WV loop whats that coming from the E that's working the outflow on the E side.Maybe a Met can chime in here if it is anything.Shes looking impressive this evening for sure.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Aug 25 2005 02:14 AM

Re: Movement

Quote:

Point taken....tomorrow is the day probably around noon my decision will be made. Oh, and the Hurricane Track guys are on their way to Deerfield Beach:

http://hurricanetrack.com/

That's good enough for me. They are excellent for the information and video they provide.

Also, is there any more information that substantiates the slowing of the forward speed that Steve Lyons just mentioned about 15 minutes ago? The latest model runs I've seen don't show that.

(Moderator)

Thu Aug 25 2005 02:15 AM

Attachment

Structure

This Dvorak enhancement is from the UW-CIMSS site.
It gives a good indication of the symmetry of Katrina.
Click on the attachment.

(Admin)

Thu Aug 25 2005 02:15 AM

Re: Movement

The CDO is aligned with the circulation center, the bands are there, the elliptical elongation east to west is going away. The traces of dry air between the bands are starting to disappear. Temperatures in the water are high, shear is low. Forward movement is slowing. Tomorrow is going to be highly interesting. I'd prepare for a category 2 tomorrow, even if it doesn't make it that high. Listen to local media and stay updated if you are in Palm Beach or Broward counties.

I'm supposed to be doing work in Lee county Friday through saturday on the west coast, so believe me I'm watching this very close.

(Weather Guru)

Thu Aug 25 2005 02:21 AM

Re: Movement

Hope this helps for those in the "area"

Link to what is open and what is closed (so far)
www2.wsvn.com/news/articles/extra/MIA2931/

damejune2

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Aug 25 2005 02:22 AM

Re: Movement

TWC is saying it will most likely take 24-36 hours for Katrina to get from the east coast to the west coast. I understand that there could be some major flooding but what about wind? As i understand it, when a storm moves over land and for long periods of time due to slow forward speed, wouldn't it lose some of it's wind? I know there is no terrain to really impede the storm, but it still won't have the warm water feeding it. So if it takes almost two days to cross the state does that mean by the time it gets near me (Manatee County, north of Sarasota) the winds should at or below tropical storm strength? Also, TWC's path takes it pretty damn close to my area whereas the NHC and some of the models have it exiting around the FT Myers/Naples area. Any thoughts on this? You can PM if you wish....

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Aug 25 2005 02:22 AM

Re: Movement

Quote:

The CDO is aligned with the circulation center, the bands are there, the elliptical elongation east to west is going away. The traces of dry air between the bands are starting to disappear. Temperatures in the water are high, shear is low. Forward movement is slowing. Tomorrow is going to be highly interesting. I'd prepare for a category 2 tomorrow, even if it doesn't make it that high. Listen to local media and stay updated if you are in Palm Beach or Broward counties.

I'm supposed to be doing work in Lee county Friday through saturday on the west coast, so believe me I'm watching this very close.

I manage a small fleet of drivers who work in Lee and Collier County, so I'm in the same boat. If you're thinking about a Cat 2 possibly at the intial landfall, should I prep for a Cat 1 on the West Coast in Lee and Collier? My concern is it stalls out or that it moves NW after the intial landfall. The models are everywhere and don't seem to be much help, or is that my scientific ignorance on this subject showing?

jlauderdal

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Aug 25 2005 02:24 AM

Re: Movement

Quote:

The CDO is aligned with the circulation center, the bands are there, the elliptical elongation east to west is going away. The traces of dry air between the bands are starting to disappear. Temperatures in the water are high, shear is low. Forward movement is slowing. Tomorrow is going to be highly interesting. I'd prepare for a category 2 tomorrow, even if it doesn't make it that high. Listen to local media and stay updated if you are in Palm Beach or Broward counties.

I'm supposed to be doing work in Lee county Friday through saturday on the west coast, so believe me I'm watching this very close.

I can report from NE FLL that the only preps I have seen are lines at the gas station. If this thing goes to a two then the term rush to completion will be in full effect here tomorrow.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Thu Aug 25 2005 02:24 AM

Re: Movement

TWOAT 1030PM EDT IS OUT

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...AS IT MOVES TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC.

weatherwatcher2

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Aug 25 2005 02:30 AM

Re: Movement

im just as curious as you are im also in Manatee County. I dont think it wil be too bad by the time it gets to our coast but you never know.. I still am in agreement with scottsvb that it will exit between venice and clearwater.

Old Sailor

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Aug 25 2005 02:33 AM

Re: Movement

Just looked at latest Model runs at secure Naval Mil site which I still have access to. They show change 2 seem kind of wacked out maybe reason not updated yet other 2 now more in agreement with NHC track, Sorry can't show the Graph can' copy it or paste it.

Dave

Big Red Machine

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Aug 25 2005 02:34 AM

Re: Movement

Quote:

im just as curious as you are im also in Manatee County. I dont think it wil be too bad by the time it gets to our coast but you never know.. I still am in agreement with scottsvb that it will exit between venice and clearwater.

Perhaps, but the model plots all seem to be coming into an agreement of the system sliding up the southwest coast. It may be far enough west not to cause many problems by the time it gets up to my neck of the woods in the TB area, but for ya'll from Collier-Sarasota/Manatee it looks awfully close.
Plots Here: http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Aug 25 2005 02:35 AM

Re: Movement

So I take it from the now west moving storm that the worst we can expect in southern Brevard is breezy conditions? Seems as the any northward movement has ceased, and a continued west motion should prevail until it reaches the GOM?

(Weather Master)

Thu Aug 25 2005 02:40 AM

Preparations

I know that absolutely no one is preparing for a cat 2 hurricane here. They aren't even preparing for a cat 1. Of course this even includes me, because my shutters are still in the garage. I have not seen a single home putting up shutters. The weather won't be the best tomorrow for doing it either. Schools here are actually open until early afternoon, that is crazy. There might be some time early in the morning, but most people will be at work or school. My pressure has slowly risen from 6:30 pm until now from 29.86" to 29.91". I think this is in reference to the high building in somewhat from the north. Therefore, the storm took that sharp left earlier this evening.

crpeavley

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Aug 25 2005 02:40 AM

Re: Katrina Forms... Hurricane Watches up for East Coast of Florida Vero South *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Aug 25 2005 02:41 AM

Re: Preparations

The 11:00 is out: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200512_5day.html

(Weather Guru)

Thu Aug 25 2005 02:41 AM

Re: Katrina Forms... Hurricane Watches up for East Coast of Florida Vero South

11pm update is in

WTNT32 KNHC 250237
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

...KATRINA HEADING WESTWARD FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...HURRICANE WARNINGS
IN EFFECT...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA
CITY...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

(Moderator)

Thu Aug 25 2005 02:44 AM

Re: Preparations

KATRINA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
MOTION WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF KATRINA INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY BEFORE
REACHING THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA EAST COAST. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE IS EXPECTED TO REACH KATRINA IN A FEW HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER. SETTLEMENT POINT ON GRAN BAHAMA ISLAND JUST
REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 43 MPH...69 KM/HR.

full Advisory here:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/250237.shtml

DUE TO ITS SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA... WITH TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.

scottsvb

(Weather Master)

Thu Aug 25 2005 02:46 AM

Re: Preparations

Yeah I posted a couple days back it will exit around Venice or just south of there.2nd landfall will be from just N of clearwater- Cross city.. big area but still 4 days out.....Cat 3.

HanKFranK

(User)

Thu Aug 25 2005 02:47 AM

Re: Movement

a vigorous tropical wave with a closed low and deep convection, mind you.
gonna keep the katrina idea at cat 1, 980-984mb, boca raton area. it still looks good so far.. i see the potential for more strengthening but seems more likely to do less as of now.
the second hit at al/ms is out to lunch based on the model shifts.. still more than 3 days out so i don't feel too bad relocating. i'll just go with 'what clark said'. i'm thinking it will be stronger, is the only difference. earlier idea, with more open ocean around was a cat 3. will just keep it there for now, but adjust based on the initial landfall intensity.. when that happens.
97L has kept its center ahead of the convection, extended out into the big pool of saharan air in the eastern/central atlantic. there's a band of zonal westerlies at and just north of the low that is keeping the deep convection peeled back.. and less impressive than earlier. even though it's been a closed nonfrontal low over the tropics generating winds near or at gale force, it may never be classified. i don't see the shear profile changing that much in the coming days.
HF 0247z25august

CaneTrackerInSoFl

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Aug 25 2005 02:54 AM

Model Runs

This forecast is rather difficult since one of the more
reliable models...the GFS...shows that the cyclone barely touches
the East Coast of Florida before moving northward....while the
outstanding GFDL moves Katrina south of due west across extreme
South Florida and the Keys as a very intense hurricane. The GFDL
scenario would be very dangerous for South Florida. This appears to
be unrealistic at this time but because of the good past
performance of this model...we must pay close attention to future
model runs.

From the discussion.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/250243.shtml? ~danielw