MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 04:50 AM |
Category 2 Hurricane Katrina Back Over the Water, Strengthening
|
4:30PM Update
Model guidance has shifted dramatically to the west, we are awaiting the 5PM National Hurricane Center discussion and forecast to see what the meaning is.
Expect the unexpected.
Noon Update
Katrina is now a Category 2 hurricane... more to come later.
11 AM Update
Katrina has strengthened a bit more, and the pressure has dropped in the advisory to 981. However, a recon report that come shortly after the public advisory reported the pressure at 971 mb. Which indicates that Katrina may well be on it's way to category 2 status.
In fact, a special advisory may be issued shortly by the NHC shortly to increase the maximum sustained winds to 80kt/92mph, with a corresponding and rather dramatic pressure drop to 971mb.
I am a bit reluctant to mention more because of what occurred with Dennis earlier this year. When toward the end it did weaken as much as it gained strength. Katrina has the potential to become a major hurricane, and in fact is now forecast to by the time it nears the coast, and if the recon report is accurate, it may become a major much sooner than that. I'll be looking for situations (like dry air, shear, etc) that could cause Katrina to weaken.
But do not let your guard down in the Panhandle for Katrina because of what occurred with Dennis!
Model consensus is fairly solid now with the future track, the cone of error still should be watched.
The 11am forecast track is largely unchanged from the 5am track, towards the general vicinity of the Ft. Walton-Panama City area, but the intensity forecast will have to be moved upward from the 100-105kt projected in the 11a package at landfall. Stay tuned -- Katrina is getting better organized in a rapid fashion as it drifts north of the Keys.
(We and Skeetobite are looking for feedback on maps, let us know here)
9 AM Update
Katrina is back up to Hurricane Status this morning and is moving slowly west. The turn to the north, most likely along the NHC forecast track, should happen sometime today. Everyone in the cone needs to be watching this system, especially in the Panhandle. (As much as I hate to say that again)
The north side of the storm is farily dry, whereas the southern side of this storm has most of the percipitation this morning. So that's good news for keeping flooding rains away from the Peninsula for the most part. Unless the eastern side wraps around later today. The cloud shield of the storm is still very impressive.
More to come later.
Original Update
Katrina is a Troical Storm once again, albeit a very strong one, nearing the sparsely populated extreme southwestern coast of Florida and is expected to move out into the Gulf fairly shortly.
Tropical Storm Warnings have been Extended to include the entire Florida Keys, and the Dry Tortugas.
The storm has held together remarkably well as it moved westward, so strengthening after it enters the Gulf is fairly likely. More in the morning.
For a lot more future thinking, see Ed and Clark's blog below.
Event Related Links
General Links
Report Katrina conditions in your area/read other's reports at this link (registration not required).
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Emergency Management/County info
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Katrina
Google Map plot of Katrina
Visible Floater Satellite of Katrina
Water Vapor Floater of Katrina
Visible Satellite Floater of Katrina with storm track overlays
Animated model plots of Katrina
Spaghetti Model Plot of Katrina from Colorado State
Bahamas Radar
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar
Tallahassee, FL Long Range Radar
Eglin Air Force Bace, Radar Panhandle
Mobile, AL Long Range Radar
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Invest 97L
NRL-Monterey Satellite Data on 97L
METEOSAT-8 imagery over Europe & Africa from the Univ. of Wisconsin
Animated model plots of 97L
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 05:33 AM |
|
|
Re: Katrina Nearing the Gulf
|
Actually at this point I'd say that the circulation center has crossed into the gulf (at least 50% of it)
So.... where does it go from here, and how well did the inner windfields survive? It's looking ragged, but is that a function of being forced south when it wanted to push north? (the high pressure pressing down.... and when it starts to 'round the bend' how quickly can it rebuild....
I feel like quoting star wars at this point, so I'm going to stop. but ... "I got a .... feeling about this"
Edit:
By ragged, I mean that the northern portion of the storm has looked 'eroded' the last 12 hours or so. the center is still holding together fairly well, and I wouldn't be suprised to see it upgraded by 11am (maybe even sooner if the storms fire up in the eyewall....
| nate77 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 05:43 AM |
|
Re: Katrina Nearing the Gulf
|
Is it me or did this thing gain some speed?
I havent really studied it all that much, but some forecasters didnt have it re-entering the gulf until Friday afternoon and hitting the panhandle sunday sometime.. Looks like it could hit again on saturday.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 05:47 AM |
|
|
Wind Danger Still Exists
|
Though Katrina is moving off shore at this time. The probability of torrential rain, and winds above 45 mph still exist.
Katrina is likely to deepen again. Possibly to a Hurricane by daybreak. (my opinion)
In looking over the Local Storm Reports from NWS Miami:
0553 PM*** 1 FATAL *** 20-25 YEAR OLD MAN KILLED WHEN TREE BRANCHES WERE BLOWN DOWN.
0600 PM*** 1 FATAL *** 54 YEAR OLD MALE PEDESTRIAN KILLED WHEN TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN.
I know that there is at least one other fatality reported. But I'm not seeing any references here.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 05:49 AM |
|
|
Re: Katrina Nearing the Gulf
|
Quote:
So.... where does it go from here
Well nothing much is going to be coming over on the N side over land, so initially the bands will be mostly on the S and SE, once offshore, but then I guess the strong circ will carry the bands around quickly once far enough away from land, and convection will build because it will be daytime. So actually by very early morning should be back in business.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 05:53 AM |
|
Re: Wind Danger Still Exists
|
There was also a guy who got caught in his car and power lines got him before they could cut the power,very sad.Those 00 runs taking there time to come guess ill go to bed but i agree this will get to cat 1 and maybe 2 i just really hope it gets out in the gulf far.I dont wish it on anyone and hope it falls apart (doubt) i really want out of the cone so keep going west is good for me.
Best bet would be to go right along to mexico.But i hope when it leaves the west coast of florida its the last time we see it on this coast.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 05:55 AM |
|
|
|
Flash Flooding
|
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1244 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS EXTENDED THE
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
* UNTIL 700 AM EDT
* AT 1240 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED MODERATELY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING TO TRACK REPEATEDLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. RADAR AND RAIN GAUGE DATA INDICATE THAT AS MUCH AS 10 TO 14 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED FROM KEY BISCAYNE TO HOMESTEAD THIS EVENING . AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WARNED AREA BY MORNING. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL EXACERBATE THE ONGOING SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
A FEW OF THE LOCATIONS AT GREATEST RISK FOR CONTINUED FLOODING ARE... KEY BISCAYNE...PERRINE...COUNTRY WALK...CUTLER RIDGE...PRINCETON... NARANJA...HOMESTEAD...FLORIDA CITY...AND THE REDLANDS.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 06:25 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Flash Flooding
|
If it continues SW at this speed, Key West is going to get hammered by the strong S and SE bands near the COC, in about 3 hours (5am EDT).
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 06:30 AM |
|
Re: Flash Flooding
|
That list reads like the hit list of places devestated almost 13 years to the date by Hurricane Andrew. The heaviest rain remains over that area at this time and I wouldn't be surprised if those additional 6" are underdoing it just a little.
Over the past half-hour to hour, the center of Katrina appears to have essentially slowed down quite a bit *just* offshore. It is still drifting southward, but at more like 2-4mph and not moving SW at 10mph. I think this might be the start of that slowing trend and will need to be monitored overnight to see if that is indeed the case. The storm is undergoing a bit of reorganization -- some dry air worked into the center of the storm while it was over land and is giving the appearance of a center being further offshore than it really is -- but should reach hurricane intensity once again in the next 6-9hr.
My 2:30am position estimate on the storm is just south of the tip of Ponce de Leon Bay (for reference, please see http://sofia.usgs.gov/geer/2003/posters/wq_bicyever/sulfatemapx.gif) drifting SSW at 2-3mph. This general motion with a turn towards the west is expected through the morning hours. This will keep the center near-shore through the overnight hours and bring it to a position SW of Naples and Everglades City later in the morning.
Now that the center is over the Gulf, it's "go" time. What happens over the next day is going to go a long way toward determining where this storm makes landfall and at what intensity it makes landfall. Good night everyone, and get some rest. This is just the middle of the first round of Katrina -- we've still got a long way to go with this one.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 06:41 AM |
|
|
Rain and Wind Hazards
|
Quote:
That list reads like the hit list of places devestated almost 13 years to the date by Hurricane Andrew. The heaviest rain remains over that area at this time and I wouldn't be surprised if those additional 6" are underdoing it just a little...
A note on the side here. My last check of 'Storm Total" rainfall from both the Key West and Miami radar. A bit of conflict there.
One showed a maxima of 21.8 inches and the other 14 inches. Too much rainfall, no matter how you look at it.
One other thought.
The rainfall will make the tress blow over Very Easy now. If Katrina spins up to Hurricane force again there could be more trees falling in areas that they haven't fallen.
Please exercise extreme caution in areas with trees and high winds. What might have required 45mph yesterday, may blow over in a 35mph wind today.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 07:06 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Rain and Wind Hazards
|
The 3am increased the speed to 11mph...but changed direction to WSW.
So still very close to Key West.
Definitely going to sleep now!
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 07:29 AM |
|
|
Re: Rain and Wind Hazards
|
Four Dead As Katrina Slams South Florida
http://www.nbc6.net/weather/4887334/detail.html
not buying a franklin couty landfall just yet....more to west.....panama city maybe...strong cat 2?
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 08:53 AM |
|
|
|
and unless the marine advisory is wrong Katrina is a Hurricane again.
|
Katrina's stint as a Tropical Storm was a brief one, They have her max sustained winds at 65Kts and 987Mb pressure. They're also putting her on a 260 degree track, which eyeballing the radar makes sense.... how how rapidly will the storm turn and round the ridge? There is the question that could be the difference between a stiff wind and a week without power.
My reasoning is shot on this storm, so I'll simply bow out and go to bed...(I really have to average more than 3 hours sleep a night....)
-Mark
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 10:26 AM |
|
|
Re: and unless the marine advisory is wrong Katrina is a Hurricane again.
|
I may be imagining this, but I think I see a northerly vector component in the very last frame of the Key West radar - http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kbyx.shtml
It could be a wobble.
I thought I was imagining the southerly componenent yesterday when all said it was going due west.
| hurricane expert |
| (Really Not an Expert) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 10:28 AM |
|
Re: Katrina Nearing the Gulf
|
Am seeing the same wobble to the north
| stormchazer |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 10:35 AM |
|
|
Re: and unless the marine advisory is wrong Katrina is a Hurricane again.
|
Thought I would chime in since I did not stay up all night. (Check in at 2 amish to see what the status was), just to keep the post rolling.
All the globals are in almost unanimous agreement this morning showing a movement WNW then NW with a bend North and impact just east of Ft Walton Beach.
It appears that Katrina has outrun the deepening trough a bit and might get further west, likely sparing danger to the West Coast of FL. south of the Big Bend. Anyone west of the Big Bend better keep an eye for sudden changes, as we know the tropics can do that.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:18 AM |
|
|
Re: and unless the marine advisory is wrong Katrina is a Hurricane again.
|
We're talking about rain...take a look at these rain totals - WOW:
http://weather.cod.edu/nexrad/floater/AMX/AMX.PRETX.gif
(source: http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/paulradar.pl?AMX - thanks danielw for posting this in the old thread last night
)
| FlaRebel |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:21 AM |
|
Re: and unless the marine advisory is wrong Katrina is a Hurricane again.
|
Well it appears most of the models are pretty much in agreement at this point. Looks like right now the bullseye is between Ft. Walton and Panama City. Even with that slight shift west, I'm sure I am still in for a VERY rough ride here in Tallahassee.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:22 AM |
|
Re: Katrina Nearing the Gulf
|
I don't see the N component at all, still wsw or even sw perhaps, there was and is some open areas with no convection (dry areas) to the north of the eye with could have caused the appearance of a north jog, but I don't see in on this radar loop... speed still looks at about 10 mph
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/byx_NCR_lp.shtml
| StormHound |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:23 AM |
|
Katrina future path
|
Looks like the models think they have a good handle on the system now. We'll know in a few hours. It may be just a wobble or a reorganization, but the last couple of sat frames show a much more northernly component. I think it'll be until this afternoon before we have a solid idea of where she is going.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:23 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Wind Danger Still Exists
|
Quote:
danielw wrote:
I know that there is at least one other fatality reported. But I'm not seeing any references here.
Here:
"a 79-year-old man died in a car crash during the storm in Cooper City" --BBC
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:25 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Katrina future path
|
The sat might look like it is moving slightly northerly, but that's just moisture wrapping around the system.
Take a look at the Miami radar - it is still going almost due west - perhaps if anything slightly south of due west. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_N0R_lp.shtml
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:26 AM |
|
Re: and unless the marine advisory is wrong Katrina is a Hurricane again.
|
If I had to pick a location right now 72hours out I probably pick poor Pensacola, which to me is unbelievable... I think the models will continue to shift ever so slightly to the west over time and if I was anywhere in the area from Pcola to PC I'd be in full hurricane preps by NLT this evening or early Sat....
| Black Pearl |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:29 AM |
|
|
Re: and unless the marine advisory is wrong Katrina is a Hurricane again.
|
The eye has reappeared over the last few frames of local radar. I will be watching today to see when the WNW component begins. I am thinking a small movement further west than forecasted would make a major difference in where Katrina ends up.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:40 AM |
|
|
|
Other systems
|
97L isn't looking ny better today than yesterday, and NHC mentioned that shear will inhibit development today, but it will relax again tomorrow. I wonder if it will ever form a system. It looked so good coming off Africa a week ago, but it never materialized.
The wave behind 97L is starting to get its act together, and the models are now showing it spinning out to sea and not getting very strong. Lets hope the models don't change again.
CMC is showing an interesting event occuring off the NC coast in about 2 days unrelated to Katrina. It is blowing up a strong circulation center and then dissipating it 2 days later. GFS is also doing something off the NC coast in the same place. Wierd.
| Katie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:42 AM |
|
|
Re: and unless the marine advisory is wrong Katrina is a Hurricane again.
|
Fatalities - They have just reported on the local news that so far three related to Katrina and they were because of a falling tree (with exception of the car crash but, that involved a tree too).
East Polk County - we got some rain here last night. Can't say how much for sure but it is very wet outside still. Bright and sunny this morning but I can see a band off to our South East coming in our direction. Not sure if it will even make it here or not.
Well, as glad as I am to see the track more to the West (once she is back in the GOM) I am sad to see that portions of the Panhandle are going to be faced with yet another storm. My heart breaks for them. I wouldn't wish that on anyone.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:43 AM |
|
Re: Katrina future path
|
Quote:
Looks like the models think they have a good handle on the system now. We'll know in a few hours. It may be just a wobble or a reorganization, but the last couple of sat frames show a much more northernly component. I think it'll be until this afternoon before we have a solid idea of where she is going.
Sorry but you must be looking at a old map just got up and ran the last few hrs and noting near north as said west or even a little south.
check your map to make sure you get the right run.
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:44 AM |
|
Re: and unless the marine advisory is wrong Katrina is a Hurricane again.
|
Why is it that this latest interesting storm had to occur during the same week that classes started, I had an interview on the east coast, and a case of the stomach flu... I think I'm back to normal again, and ready to start obsessing about this storm.
I noticed the southernly component to last night's motion and assumed it would track the models west. That has happened, but there is still the forecast for a pretty quick turn to the north and then back east. I've looked at the water vapor, which usually helps me with projected path, but I'm not seeing it. Can someone explain why the models forecast such a dramatic turn in forward motion?
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:48 AM |
|
Re: Other systems
|
There is model consensus on her coming in near the central panhandle, but don't bet the farm on it yet. Whoever get it may be a hurtin' pup. NAM has another weird solution, taking her into the GOM, and developing a low near Andros island and taking it NNE through the Bahamas. Weird, probably spurious low, but it keeps popping up! Cheers!!
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:49 AM |
|
Re: and unless the marine advisory is wrong Katrina is a Hurricane again.
|
Well before i go there is a trof coming down that is due to pick it up lter today or tonight from the northwest.
Gonna turn north just when is all.Goodluck all today and God be with you and i do hope it stays away from spots it has hit before and also pray it does not get as bad as some think it may,
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:49 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Other systems
|
Quote:
There is model consensus on her coming in near the central panhandle, but don't bet the farm on it yet. Whoever get it may be a hurtin' pup. NAM has another weird solution, taking her into the GOM, and developing a low near Andros island and taking it NNE through the Bahamas. Weird, probably spurious low, but it keeps popping up! Cheers!!
Its not just NAM that's doing strange things on the Atlantic side. Take a look at GFS and CMC also, but more north of the NAM solution.
| JG |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:50 AM |
|
Re: Katrina Nearing the Gulf
|
Quote:
Am seeing the same wobble to the north
I saw the same wobble. I cancelled my plans in Naples today as I don't trust this storm. If one of residents mets can check this, is it possible it has escaped the influence of the high pressure ridge thus the 3-5 mph forward speed? It sure does not appear to have anything steering it right now.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:53 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Katrina Nearing the Gulf
|
Quote:Quote:
Am seeing the same wobble to the north
I saw the same wobble. I cancelled my plans in Naples today as I don't trust this storm. If one of residents mets can check this, is it possible it has escaped the influence of the high pressure ridge thus the 3-5 mph forward speed? It sure does not appear to have anything steering it right now.
Again I will repeat:
Radar out of Miami shows no northward motion yet. I believe what you, and most other people, are picking up on IR/Water Vapor is the wrapping around of that large convection mass that formed over the Keys last night. It is merely an optical illusion at this point.
However! I don't trust the models either. There is no run-to-run consistency yet.
| SirCane |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:53 AM |
|
|
Re: and unless the marine advisory is wrong Katrina is a Hurricane again.
|
I am ready to move from this town if Katrina comes here. There won't be anything left to stay for!
| JG |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:57 AM |
|
Re: Katrina Nearing the Gulf
|
Quote:Quote:Quote:
Am seeing the same wobble to the north
I saw the same wobble. I cancelled my plans in Naples today as I don't trust this storm. If one of residents mets can check this, is it possible it has escaped the influence of the high pressure ridge thus the 3-5 mph forward speed? It sure does not appear to have anything steering it right now.
Again I will repeat:
Radar out of Miami shows no northward motion yet. I believe what you, and most other people, are picking up on IR/Water Vapor is the wrapping around of that large convection mass that formed over the Keys last night. It is merely an optical illusion at this point.
However! I don't trust the models either. There is no run-to-run consistency yet.
I was watching the radar from Key West earlier when I saw that. But I really don't trust the models. I'd like to see what is going on in the W and NW parts of the gulf regarding steering currents before I relax. This storm has taken everyone by suprise, especially the residents of Broward and Dade.
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 12:01 PM |
|
|
Re: Katrina Nearing the Gulf
|
Experts when is this turn to the north supposed to start ? Will I know by tomorrow at noon if I should board up our beach house in Gulfshores AL?
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 12:04 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Katrina Nearing the Gulf
|
Uh.
Turn north?
Today or tomorrow?
I think we still have no real clue, though the models are predicting by sometime this afternoon.
| StormHound |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 12:08 PM |
|
Re: Katrina Nearing the Gulf
|
Quote:Quote:
Am seeing the same wobble to the north
Again I will repeat:
Radar out of Miami shows no northward motion yet. I believe what you, and most other people, are picking up on IR/Water Vapor is the wrapping around of that large convection mass that formed over the Keys last night. It is merely an optical illusion at this point.
However! I don't trust the models either. There is no run-to-run consistency yet.
Agreed. Now that the eye is starting to reappear it does look like it was just wrapping itself up again. As I said, once she gets herself back together the picture should clarify.
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 12:17 PM |
|
Re: Katrina Nearing the Gulf
|
Looking at the current radar loop she doesn't seem to be moving too much. I think she's trying to figure out where she wants to go.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kbyx.shtml
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 12:27 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Katrina Nearing the Gulf
|
She is opening her eye now but who does she have her eye on
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
| naples |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 12:29 PM |
|
Re: Katrina Nearing the Gulf
|
It is right below us here in Naples, any chance this thing could go north soon, or are we pretty safe. To close for comfort right now.
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 12:39 PM |
|
Rapid Intesification
|
It appears that Kat is really starting to crank already. I think the next runs and the next forecast from the NHC will reflect a very strong storm and may shift a little farther west.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 12:43 PM |
|
Re: and unless the marine advisory is wrong Katrina is a Hurricane again.
|
I feel your pain Sircane.... I just can't believe that P'cola would have to experience another storm.... this one could be as bad as Ivan, and that's really scary.... still early, models are not as clustered as I'd like to see them, and lacking some consistancy from run to run... as it heads north eventually every one will be focusing on the NE turn, people need to be prepared once a cane warning is issued for their area to expect it to hit them, I sure the folks in Punta Gorta will tell you the same... and regardless of where the exact NHC landfalling point is... because you certainly don't want to get fooled by a major cane...
| Guitarman |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 12:51 PM |
|
Re: and unless the marine advisory is wrong Katrina is a Hurricane again.
|
Uh oh. I live in Panama City Beach. My worst fear has come true. The official track is right on top of us. And it seems that the strength the NHC is predicting is very conservative. Does anyone else fear we could have a very big cat 3 or 4 bearing down on PCB not a just a cat 2? She's over that 90 degree Gulf water and is already looking very healthy. Starting to wonder if we will be asked to evacuate... It will definitely be a nervous weekend here...
| amonty |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 12:56 PM |
|
|
Re: Katrina Nearing the Gulf
|
It looks like she's stopped to think which way to go!!
| firestar_1 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 01:01 PM |
|
|
|
Re: and unless the marine advisory is wrong Katrina is a Hurricane again.
|
Quote:
I feel your pain Sircane.... I just can't believe that P'cola would have to experience another storm.... this one could be as bad as Ivan, and that's really scary.... still early, models are not as clustered as I'd like to see them, and lacking some consistancy from run to run... as it heads north eventually every one will be focusing on the NE turn, people need to be prepared once a cane warning is issued for their area to expect it to hit them, I sure the folks in Punta Gorta will tell you the same... and regardless of where the exact NHC landfalling point is... because you certainly don't want to get fooled by a major cane...
Take a look at this link: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif
Tried to bring up a possibility of an earlier move to the north last night.....sure do wish she would just go away...but that is not going to happen....
| dkpcb |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 01:05 PM |
|
Re: and unless the marine advisory is wrong Katrina is a Hurricane again.
|
Hi to everyone !
We are located close to the coast here in Panama City Beach,
and have to pack up and wrap plastic over everything, we always
have our hurricane prep ready now. We reserved our hotel room
in town yesterday. My husband is on his way to Home Depot
to get a new chain saw and gas.
We just finish laying ceramic tile in the house. Blue
Tarp still on the roof, we know that is not going to hold.
We just took the plywood down, because of fire hazard.
Everybody is getting tired of all this hurricanes coming our
way, if it comes here or not, it interferes in our life’s so much,
lost jobs, can’t make a living, no tourist.
Paying for supplies and hotel rooms, children out of school,
no power, for I don’t know how long. Not knowing if we have
a home after the storm past is very difficult to deal with.
I know these sounds like whining, but we are just sick of it,
I want to move inland.
I hope this hurricane is not coming directly at us.
We want to thank everybody on this site, this is a lot better
info then the media.
Thanks Again
DK
| drcrazibob |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 01:06 PM |
|
|
Re: and unless the marine advisory is wrong Katrina is a Hurricane again.
|
I have to fly to Portland on Monday. I leave from Daytona 11am, then to Atlanta and leave there at 2pm. So should I be stuffing my carry-on for 24 hour delay?
| Katie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 01:15 PM |
|
|
|
Re: flight delay
|
Your flight will probably be delayed if she comes through at that time, but she may stall out, take longer to make her way or rush through things too. Sit tight and don't worry just yet about a flight next week.
I stand corrected. I said that there were three deaths from Katrina. It is four.
She also brought down an overpass in South Florida. I have seen the pictures on TV just can't remember where exactly it was.
| SirCane |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 01:18 PM |
|
|
|
Re: and unless the marine advisory is wrong Katrina is a Hurricane again.
|
There just seems to be something about the weather patterns right now that keep turning these things up to this area. It is unbelieveable. To think we could have 3 Hurricanes in less than a year is mind boggling. Gas stations are already running out of gas.....
| Ed G |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 01:21 PM |
|
Re: and unless the marine advisory is wrong Katrina is a Hurricane again.
|
we in the central Florida area had four last year.
being inland didn't help much.
We feel your pain. best of luck to you.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 01:30 PM |
|
Re: and unless the marine advisory is wrong Katrina is a Hurricane again.
|
Well, I know of one local media outlet that is trying to give you as much info as possible!
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 01:32 PM |
|
Re: and unless the marine advisory is wrong Katrina is a Hurricane again.
|
Radar show the storm is indeed moving and still a little south of due west...the water vapor suggests nothing will pull this north until it goes out to about 90 west...and at 5-7 mph that could be late tomorrow...If it strengthens considerably quickly it could begin to dig a little north before that...the trough that was to pick this up may not carry the amplitude and is still over the midwest to influence the storm in the near future. Those are my observations and opinions.
| Katie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 01:34 PM |
|
|
|
Re: and unless the marine advisory is wrong Katrina is a Hurricane again.
|
Sircane - I honestly feel so badly for you all up there in P'cola. I lived there for a few years and couldn't even begin to imagine the stress you all are feeling. I can honestly say, I am glad I am not up there any more for that same reason!!!
Just looked out side - completely clear not a cloud in sight. Beautiful and breezy.
| MadDog |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 01:35 PM |
|
Re: and unless the marine advisory is wrong Katrina is a Hurricane again.
|
Jason, do you have a website that you will be manning during the upcoming few days? We are looking forward to your analysis.
| bn765 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 01:36 PM |
|
Re: and unless the marine advisory is wrong Katrina is a Hurricane again.
|
Did anyone expect Katrina to still be a hurricane after leaving Florida?
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 01:39 PM |
|
Re: and unless the marine advisory is wrong Katrina is a Hurricane again.
|
Quote:
Did anyone expect Katrina to still be a hurricane after leaving Florida?
No, at least I didn't at least. However, it did drop to Tropical storm strength before leaving the coast last night, but just to 70MPH/Borderlien. That southerly motion that the GFDL model suggested was the reason why. I can say it wasn't really expected, but isn't too surprising. (Expect the unexpected with some storms)
The Everglades softened a lot of the usual weakening factors of land (not all, the everglades couldn't sustain or strengthen a system, there still is friction and the water is shallow) but it's much less so than a forest or metro area over dry land.
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 01:42 PM |
|
|
Re: flight delay
|
The bridge you were thinking about was at the Dolphin Parkway going into Miami International Airport...Evidently the thing just crumbled.....
Also, was listening to the radio met from WSB-AM here in Atlanta and he said that this storm could be like Opal was in 1995(iirc).....
AS far as flying into Atlanta this weekend, it looks like Sunday night and Monday during the day will probably be the worst days to even trying to go through the airport, not only are those the two busiest days of travel anyway, but once there is a storm, delays can reach into the 2-3 hour stage if not longer....
| slick1 |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 01:44 PM |
|
|
Re: and unless the marine advisory is wrong Katrina is a Hurricane again.
|
Quote:
Well, I know of one local media outlet that is trying to give you as much info as possible!
Where have you been? I always tune in to you.
| Black Pearl |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 01:49 PM |
|
|
Re: and unless the marine advisory is wrong Katrina is a Hurricane again.
|
Looks like the BAM models shifted west on the 12Z run. Model Plotter
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 01:54 PM |
|
Re: Katrina Back Over the Water
|
Katrina is beginning to really slow down as the ridge over the south-central US begins to erode and move out. Radar motion over the past hour shows motion of about half of an anticyclonic loop, putting the storm about in the same location it was an hour ago. Water vapor imagery (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html) clearly shows the erosion of the ridge -- no longer is the moisture seen racing around in a clockwise fashion. The trough over the northern Plains continues to flatten it out and in response, the ridge has begun to move towards the SW, pretty much as projected last night. The trough continue to move south and eastward as shortwaves rotate around its periphery over the north-central Plains. As the ridge & trough move over the course of the day, Katrina should move slowly towards the west and gradually northwest in advance of the trough, heading for a second landfall in the Panhandle in the Sunday/Monday time frame.
The storm made it a bit further south than expected, but I think it's about as far south as it is going to go. It did slow down from last night, however -- 7hrs of motion for about 55-60 miles as opposed to 75-80 miles. That's going to continue now, I feel. Where that puts the storm at second landfall only remains to be seen. It's not gonig to be a good one for wherever it ends up.
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 01:54 PM |
|
|
|
Re: and unless the marine advisory is wrong Katrina is a Hurricane again.
|
Jason does your station or any of the others in the Panhandle have any plans to stream coverage online 24-7 ?
| JG |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 02:01 PM |
|
Re: Katrina Back Over the Water
|
Quote:
Katrina is beginning to really slow down as the ridge over the south-central US begins to erode and move out. Radar motion over the past hour shows motion of about half of an anticyclonic loop, putting the storm about in the same location it was an hour ago. Water vapor imagery (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html) clearly shows the erosion of the ridge -- no longer is the moisture seen racing around in a clockwise fashion. The trough over the northern Plains continues to flatten it out and in response, the ridge has begun to move towards the SW, pretty much as projected last night. The trough continue to move south and eastward as shortwaves rotate around its periphery over the north-central Plains. As the ridge & trough move over the course of the day, Katrina should move slowly towards the west and gradually northwest in advance of the trough, heading for a second landfall in the Panhandle in the Sunday/Monday time frame.
The storm made it a bit further south than expected, but I think it's about as far south as it is going to go. It did slow down from last night, however -- 7hrs of motion for about 55-60 miles as opposed to 75-80 miles. That's going to continue now, I feel. Where that puts the storm at second landfall only remains to be seen. It's not gonig to be a good one for wherever it ends up.
A serious question. Will this rapid erosion in the ridge allow for the turn to the North to occur sooner? If so, is it possible that the erosion of the ridge will act as a drawing action, allowing the storm to parallel the ridge along the West Florida coast? I really don't see a lot of sterring currents to move this storm over the next 12 hours, but then again, I'm no expert and readily admit so upfront.
| SirCane |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 02:11 PM |
|
|
|
Re: and unless the marine advisory is wrong Katrina is a Hurricane again.
|
Yeah, from 1996 to 2003 Pensacola had a few close calls with Danny in '97, Georges and Earl in '98 but lately they have all been direct hits. I don't know how much more people can take. After Dennis there were SO many emergency vehicles driving around with sirens. It's bad for people's health.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 02:19 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Katrina Back Over the Water
|
Quote: A serious question. Will this rapid erosion in the ridge allow for the turn to the North to occur sooner? If so, is it possible that the erosion of the ridge will act as a drawing action, allowing the storm to parallel the ridge along the West Florida coast? I really don't see a lot of sterring currents to move this storm over the next 12 hours, but then again, I'm no expert and readily admit so upfront.
Well, apparently the local NBC TV Station (WFLA) in Tampa has the storm hugging the west coast using their VIPIR system. If any one of the METs wants to chime in on VIPIR, please do.
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 02:21 PM |
|
|
Re: Katrina Back Over the Water
|
Well between the 9am and the 10am location.
There has been a NE movement
09am - 25.2N 82.0W
10am - 25.3N 81.9W
Lets see if this is just a wobble or if this is a trend that will continue.
:?:
| Genesis |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 02:23 PM |
|
|
Re: Katrina Back Over the Water
|
I did not expect the ridge to erode significantly until tonight or tomorrow mid-day.
The early erosion SHOULD tend to favor a more eastward path, but until there is an established motion I'm not buying it.
Just got done putting up the wood here in Destin - I may have done that for nothing, but I'd prefer that than the alternative.....
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 02:26 PM |
|
|
Re: Katrina Back Over the Water
|
ummm i am thinking those cooords for the 10 am are incorrect
those are the exact coords for 8 am. find it hard to believe
they are the same
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 02:27 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Katrina Back Over the Water
|
yes the coords for 10 am are
25.2 and 82.1
which means an exact west movement of .1
not a lot
| JG |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 02:27 PM |
|
Re: Katrina Back Over the Water
|
Quote:
ummm i am thinking those cooords for the 10 am are incorrect
those are the exact coords for 8 am. find it hard to believe
they are the same
Read Clark's post above. He really explained it for me...
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 02:29 PM |
|
Re: Katrina Back Over the Water
|
Ron, the FLA tracking map doesn't show a path hugging the coast:
http://www.wfla.com
Is it somewhere else on the site?
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 02:29 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Katrina Back Over the Water
|
You where Correct Sir!
I stand corrected.
AT 10 AM EDT...1400Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS ESTIMATED
BY NOAA DOPPLER RADARS TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE
82.1 WEST. THIS POSITION IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ABOUT
50 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 70 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA.
It hasn't moved N and has slid W .2
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 02:33 PM |
|
|
katrina today
|
there are a couple of considerations. katrina's inner core hasn't improved much in appearance since overnight... the northern eyewall is still rather unimpressive. there's a solid patch of dry mid-level air which is diving sw from north florida, and should be feeding into the storm later today. should keep intensification slow and unsteady. i'd expect it to still be cat 1 this evening. tomorrow the storm should begin working the dry air out and deepen a little more steadily once it does. it will probably be nearing or at category 3 late saturday. sunday is the day that worries me.. katrina should be moving under the upper ridge axis by then, and also be getting a slight baroclinic enhancement. i'll keep my intensity idea at category 3 because stronger hurricanes are relatively rare at landfall, but there is a possibility katrina will be stronger.
the model consensus over the past day have oscillated to either side of the bay-gulf county area in florida. if i was in that area i'd be taking the hurricane most seriously.
the real wildcard factors right now are intensity and westward movement over the next 24-36 hrs. if katrina stalls are moves erratically the forecast track will shift back to the big bend. if it lunges a good bit westward today it will move over to pensacola-fort walton. it's an odd-sounding thing to be hopeful for, but it might not be a bad thing if the hurricane got extremely strong while still offshore.. then the chance of an eyewall replacement cycle at landfall would be there.. like what dennis did right before hitting in july. a temporarily stunted cat 3 is a lot better to deal with than a deepening cat 3.
landfall timeframe looks to be monday morning, august 29th. mind that in most recent cases storms have hit within a day earlier than what i was thinking. sunday night looks just as good.
HF 1433z26august
| JG |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 02:33 PM |
|
Re: Katrina Back Over the Water
|
Quote:
Ron, the FLA tracking map doesn't show a path hugging the coast:
http://www.wfla.com
Is it somewhere else on the site?
It was the model output for the VIPIR displayed on Channel 8's 11 p.m. newscast last night.
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 02:35 PM |
|
|
eyewall
|
on the Miami radar..it looks like the storm is trying to reform....possibly in a concentrated eyewall building/rebuilding gig...don't know...but I would discount the turn to the north just yet.
Not sure why the models and the path haven't changed...the hurricane is considerably sw of where they thought it'd be....
can't see a quick jog north...but we'll all be suprised with this one. A noted and respected meteorologist in Mobile...Dr. Bill Williams...thought this would reach major hurricane status as a 3, and for the first time....he added...maybe a 4. Now, I'm not predicting, wishcasting, etc...just letting my thoughts fly.
this is August, ya know...and hurricanes don't belong in the GOM in August...
I hope this doesn't hit anyone....but it will.
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 02:35 PM |
|
Re: Katrina Back Over the Water
|
IN the past hour, she has moved quite a bit west....That may have been a temporary slow down this morning while she consolidated. Has been a very clear west motion for the past hour.
| FloydRTurbo |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 02:38 PM |
|
|
Re: flight delay
|
I heard on TWC this morning that the seciton of the road that collapsed was under construction at the time. I would have been very suprised if even a strong Cat 1 took out a road section like that.
First poster, I've been following this website closely for that last couple weeks, great information from everyone on here. I am an insurance adjuster (independent) so i am understandably curious as to where, when and how badly Mother Nature intends to strike. I have a new found respect for her since working Ivan as my first storm in Gulf Breeze last year and I feel for all those in the panhandle that have this storm potentially bearing down on them after strong activity earlier this year. I wouldn't wish these storms on anyone - I think I got a taste of the true devastating nature, I visited Port Charlotte to get some field experience prior to getting assigned to Ivan - so I've been to 2 of the top 4 most costly hurricane sites (according to NHC not adjusted for inflation)
It's interesting to note that the system did appear to stall temporarily (only for a few frames on http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kbyx.shtml) but now appears to have a more westerly than southwesterly component as previously shown http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-ir4-loop.html. Time will tell if this is just a wobble of an indication of the start of the northerly turning trend already. Fickle storm isn't it? At the outset it would appear that the GFDL model is still holding it's own as it has earlier this year, even though all models seems to be having trouble with this storm.
Everyone keep safe this year - and if the storm is headed your way, don't mess around. Get out! One of my first insureds I visited in Milton stayed last year for Ivan and ended up in their attic after 4 feet of water filled thei house - they had to break an escape hole in the roof.
| JG |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 02:43 PM |
|
Re: eyewall
|
Look at that pressure drop gang. 981 mb at this buoy. Initial recon is showing an expanding windfield into the NW also.
| susieq |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 02:43 PM |
|
Re: flight delay
|
11:00's up. Showing Cat 3 with landfall all little bit more west...
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200512_5day.html
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 02:52 PM |
|
Re: flight delay
|
one thing that is quite noticably different from the NHC last track versus the new track is the turn to the NE as it approaches the coast... I think once it gets on that N track, anyone above and to the right of it is going to get pounded...
| JG |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 02:58 PM |
|
Re: flight delay
|
Holy smokes!
Look at this vortex message:
URNT12 KNHC 261451
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 26/14:34:20Z
B. 25 deg 03 min N
082 deg 13 min W
C. 700 mb 2875 m
D. 45 kt
E. 318 deg 031 nm
F. 014 deg 081 kt
G. 306 deg 013 nm
H. 971 mb
I. 10 C/ 3046 m
J. 17 C/ 2871 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. OPEN N
M. C9
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 1012A KATRINA OB 05
MAX FL WIND 81 KT NW QUAD 14:30:50 Z
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 02:59 PM |
|
Re: 11:00 data
|
Confirms what the radar observations show: a little south of west at about 5mph...also the northern eyewall is eroding...the lowlevel atmosphere north of the system is unusualy dry and the strom is unable to build any real convection north and northeast of the center...no rapid intensification probable in this scenario...I think it will drift west for another day before we see too much movement north, unless intensification rapidly occurs and I think that is out of the question now, for all the reason's HF stated a short while ago.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 03:01 PM |
|
Re: 11:00 data
|
maybe,. maybe not 971 is quite a drop.... will take a little while for the winds to catch up but that's quite a surpising drop... wonder if its correct????
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 03:05 PM |
|
|
Re: Katrina Back Over the Water
|
Hi. My mind is just coming back to working order. Long Night in Miami.. amazing storm. Reading along here and wanted to add that I respect this storm tremendously and it's desire to go west and not pull north and really do believe that after looking at the water vapor loops and models that this storm will follow the western side of the forecast track. When a storm follows the pattern this storm has.. turning west around Miami vs going through the Keys on an angle it is more likely it keeps going west longer. Andrew and Betsy being examples and they both went to LA.. not the Panhandle.
Will see as the day unfolds but the one thing I do think will be a given is a little longer in the Gulf and it will turn into a Major Storm.
Guess this is the last Katrina we will see.
Any news on the family of five missing in the Gulf/Florida Bay who left Marathon early yesterday and haven't been heard from since?
| MoparMitch |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 03:06 PM |
|
Re: 11:00 data
|
What a difference a few miles can make. My dad lives in Boca Raton, and I have a sister that lives Coral Springs. My dad told me that it was more of a wind event for him, with only a few showers. My sister had a lot more rain and more intense rain, although nothing compared to locations further south.
So now we look to the panhandle (again) and then inland. It has been a wet summer here in metro atlanta, and dennis did not help. I had seeded my lawn just in time for dennis to wash most of it away. So I tried again, and now katrina. Do you think somebody is trying to tell me something???
| bn765 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 03:07 PM |
|
Re: 11:00 data
|
TWC just confirmed the vortex message.... the pressure is down to 971mb
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 03:08 PM |
|
Re: flight delay
|
radar loop now showing a definite West motion during the past 30 minutes or so... see if it continues
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kbyx.shtml
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 03:09 PM |
|
Re: 11:00 data
|
Saw that also...that's a big drop in a short amount of time...she's certainly full of surprises.
| FloydRTurbo |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 03:10 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 11:00 data
|
It looks to me on Key West radar that the eyewall, while it may have eroded to the north after exiting ino the GOM, it starting to wrap around from the SE to the NE around the COC, closing inside of the previous ragged north edge of the eyewall. I don't think this would qualify as an eyewall replacement, but it looks like a tighter reformation of the previous signature eye which was much larger. I also noticed something on the visible sat this morning that made it look like this could be happening. Am I seeing this correctly?
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 03:15 PM |
|
Re: 11:00 data
|
Winds are up to 80kt as well. Note that the previous pressure of 981 was largely estimated by buoy data and continuity, so it may have been just a touch high. New advisory packing coming out shortly; the updated info is on the main page.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 03:17 PM |
|
|
|
miami
|
Have to say ... North Dade mostly had a wind event. Big trees down, branches.. medium size palm trees... what you would expect from a Cat 1. Power out (though I have thankfully, luckily got it back) and STREETLIGHTS mostly out ..some broken. South Dade had more of a water event. No flooding here. Very little water if any even in driveways that usually gather water after rainstorms. South Dade has water damage.. and wind.
Was a beautiful, long eye... calm wind. Strong weather was on second half.. violent weather but by then the storm was stronger.
Enjoying reading what you all posted last night.. Bobbi
| palmetto |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 03:18 PM |
|
Re: flight delay
|
Looks to me to be just north of due west, looking at the Key West radar. (This from the very scientific method of slowing the animation down and using my mouse pointer as reference.) Am I just seeing things?
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 03:21 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Katrina Back Over the Water
|
Quote:
Ron, the FLA tracking map doesn't show a path hugging the coast:
http://www.wfla.com
Is it somewhere else on the site?
Ed, the map on their website is the official NHC track. At 8 AM this morning, their on-air MET, Steve Jervie, showed their VIPIR model simulation of Katrina that hugged the coast. If I remember, their VIPIR model had the storm running up the FL east coast too a couple of days ago so take it with a grain of salt. Their Viper model last year did correctly predict Charleys abrupt turn to the right into Punta Gorda though.
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 03:21 PM |
Re: Katrina Back Over the Water
|
Officially up to 100mph (Cat 2) now, according to the Tampa NBC met.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 03:23 PM |
|
Re: flight delay
|
a wobble perhaps, it wobbled back west... still looks west to me, but .... I'm not quite ready to use the "N" word just yet... however, eventually is going to happen... big question is when and where
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 03:24 PM |
|
Re: flight delay
|
Quote:
Looks to me to be just north of due west, looking at the Key West radar. (This from the very scientific method of slowing the animation down and using my mouse pointer as reference.) Am I just seeing things?
IMO you are seeing things you may see a band going around but the center has no north movement in it all all at this time.But the south movement has ended like they forcasted it too early today.
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 03:27 PM |
|
|
Re: eyewall
|
Extreme slow mover through the Gulf at this time of year. God only knows how long it'll take to move N and how strong it'll be by the time it hits land...
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 03:27 PM |
|
Re: flight delay
|
I've created a new Forecast Lounge topic for discussion about possibilities with Katrina's second landfal
You can find it here
I included a few comparison maps there with past storms as an example.
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 03:29 PM |
|
Re: flight delay
|
Quote:
Looks to me to be just north of due west, looking at the Key West radar. (This from the very scientific method of slowing the animation down and using my mouse pointer as reference.) Am I just seeing things?
Looks W and steady again.The NOGAPS and ETA have gone further W on there last runs.I like to see if the GFDL does the same.The GFDL has her turning N at 82.2' I think it's going to be a little while longer.As Clark said today is the day that will determine where she is going
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 03:29 PM |
|
|
new advisory
|
New Advisory
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 03:30 PM |
|
Re: flight delay
|
I heard a newscaster this morning on the tv that there might be a chance that it will turn North sooner and we could be dealing with a Charlie. Could that be true? I just don't see it yet. Any info would help.
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 03:31 PM |
|
VIPIR
|
Their VIPIR also did pretty good with Jeanne taking her more inland before she ever turned...it was Steve on the radio...cable out & this site before power out that got me thru her.
Am I saying they have Katrina pegged? Not yet...don't think anyone does yet...but they did perform decent last year.
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 03:32 PM |
|
|
|
wow, look at that Comma!
|
Link to Image
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 03:34 PM |
|
Re: VIPIR
|
Quote:
Their VIPIR also did pretty good with Jeanne taking her more inland before she ever turned...it was Steve on the radio...cable out & this site before power out that got me thru her.
Am I saying they have Katrina pegged? Not yet...don't think anyone does yet...but they did perform decent last year.
they also missed a few by a wide margin i like they were like 40% which is average.
| native |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 03:34 PM |
|
|
Re: flight delay
|
Updated update is in
www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200512_5day.html
Look at the gusts...120mph! Katrina is unreal.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 03:35 PM |
|
Plans and thoughts...
|
We are knee-deep in planning for this here at the station as we speak...the more westward trend that we have seen today is rather omnious for those of us who live along the Florida Panhandle, and people should begin making basic preparations from Biloxi to Apalachicola as we speak.
The current NHC track looks pretty good to me...I find little to quibble with over it right now, and we will have to see how the modelling responds when we get more recon data into is from the upper-level missions later today.
| bn765 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 03:38 PM |
|
Re: flight delay
|
Would anyone be suprised if this was up to cat 3 by the end of the day?
| bamffl |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 03:41 PM |
|
|
Re: VIPIR
|
Are there any links to VIPIR?
here is one in Orlando - http://www.local6.com/weather/index.html
| D3m3NT3DVoRT3X |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 03:42 PM |
|
|
Re: VIPIR
|
no links to vipir but im surte they will show in about 18 mins on news channel 8 in tampa
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 03:46 PM |
|
|
Re: VIPIR
|
I remember Steve Jerve last year being on the air for almost 2 days with Frances and Jeanne...and the VIPIR model pretty much nailed the forecast. If I remember correctly, earlier this week VIPIR had it coming south of Ft. Lauderdale ... which is exactly what it did.
I'll be interested to see what the VIPIR model shows in the next few minutes, if they show it.
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 03:46 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Plans and thoughts...
|
Still looks to be going slightly south though from the national weather service loop...
Quote:
We are knee-deep in planning for this here at the station as we speak...the more westward trend that we have seen today is rather omnious for those of us who live along the Florida Panhandle, and people should begin making basic preparations from Biloxi to Apalachicola as we speak.
The current NHC track looks pretty good to me...I find little to quibble with over it right now, and we will have to see how the modelling responds when we get more recon data into is from the upper-level missions later today.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 03:46 PM |
|
|
|
Re: flight delay
|
Good morning - Katrina now a Cat 2 according to the special update 13, and no surprise after watching her last night.
Also the entire N GOM at risk for possible landfall now.
Paraphrasing Phil (and Bette): fasten your seat belts; it's going to be a bumpy weekend!
Question: are we going to be looking at deepening possibly all day?
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 03:47 PM |
|
|
|
Special Discussion 13
|
NHC Special Discussion 13
mention potential of borderline Cat 4
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 03:52 PM |
|
Re: VIPIR
|
Unfortunatly they didn't animate it...just stuck with the "facts"...maybe Jerve will have an opinion tonight. Their afternoon met did mention though that she's already surprised us once.
There doesn't appear to be a link on their site for it.
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 03:52 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Special Discussion 13
|
i can't recall ever hearing them give an intensity forecast to a possible 4....
did ya check the SST's in the GOM?
it's August, ya know.....
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 03:53 PM |
|
Re: Nice site with Sat
|
Has views of the models as well as lots of sat of the CONUS just plat around.I saw the NOGAPS 06z at the Navy's site.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATATL_FLOAT2/anim8vis.html
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 03:58 PM |
|
Re: Plans and thoughts...
|
The latest WV does show a short wave trough now over NW GA down to So. Mississippi... don't know if this is strong enough to pull this north ..the Radar is more due west now than south of due west, although the visible suggests the LLC may have dropped below 25N...
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 04:05 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Plans and thoughts...
|
I believe that at this point it is still moving almost due West, but it seems to be dropping to the south every now and then. I wonder if this is because it is trying to reform it's eye. Any thought?
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 04:07 PM |
|
|
|
interesting to consider this....
|
from the NHC....
KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
7x24=168 miles further west before it starts trying to go north....
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 04:18 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Special Discussion 13
|
Quote:
i can't recall ever hearing them give an intensity forecast to a possible 4....did ya check the SST's in the GOM?
I know; that, and the very very warm SSTs, the very very low shear. It's kind of spooky, watching it happen in what for us is slow motion, against the bustle of preparation.
I'm trying to just accept it and not get torqued up about it. That won't help the board, and no one can accurately predict the exact point of landfall this far out; those on the N GOM can only spend the weekend preparing. I'm just reminding myself today that while this event is on the end of the distribution, it is normal; normal for August, normal for the current conditions. No butterflies; I'll just take a seat and watch, with the facination that holds us all when this happens.
Remember that perfect day that Emily had as a Cat 4 riding through the Carribean, skirting with Cat 5 intensity off and on during the day? It was beautiful to watch because there wasn't anything in her way that day. I watched her all day. It's hard to reconcile that facination that we can't help for nature, with the concern we have when such a storm may possibly soon be in the GOM, but we have to do it and in a way that we don't unduly alarm anyone who might be looking here for some advice.
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 04:21 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Nice site with Sat
|
National Weather Service loop:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kbyx.shtml
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 04:27 PM |
|
|
|
Re: interesting to consider this....
|
Hola from Atlanta again.....
Obviously the NWS office is taking this storm VERY, VERY seriously as they have already issued the following special weather statement at 11 am this morning...
EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 7 INCHES ...GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO GRIFFIN TO
ATHENS. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA
MOUNTAINS. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND PEOPLE LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THOSE LIVING ALONG PEACHTREE CREEK...NANCY
CREEK...PROCTOR CREEK...BIG CREEK...SOPE CREEK...AND SUWANEE
CREEK...SHOULD BEGIN PREPARATIONS TO SECURE PROPERTY FROM FLOODING
AND MAKE TENTATIVE PLANS TO SEEK HIGHER GROUND.
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND THEREFORE ANY
SHIFT OF THE TRACK FROM THE FORECAST WILL EITHER DECREASE OR
INCREASE THE EXPECTED AMOUNT OF RAIN AND WHERE IT WILL FALL.
and with a story in today's AJC about how if Atlanta gets only .20 more rain and we've set a yearly record, we could be in for a major flood event just like with Cindy and Dennis.
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 04:30 PM |
|
|
|
Re: interesting to consider this....
|
God could you imagine a Cat 4 storm moving N to N/E at 6-7mph and the rain it would drop in one place?
Maybe its just me but i do not see much of anything that is going to move this storm N very fast...
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 04:32 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Plans and thoughts...
|
Quote:
I believe that at this point it is still moving almost due West, but it seems to be dropping to the south every now and then. I wonder if this is because it is trying to reform it's eye. Any thought?
I thought NHC said movement is still 265; still S of W. In the previous 12 hours of the 225/230 deg SW movement, the heavy convective band to the S had been dropping S in what seemed like stairstep movements. So this may be an element of the forward motion.
However with intensifying and with the heavy convection bands still trying to wrap around and form a more uniform shape, doesn't it seem likely that we'll see some erratic jogs? Every time I have seen the jogs on the ones I've watched so far this summer, it is related to intensification.
I am interested to understand more about the jogs that occur in this way. Is it somehow related to the inertia of the heavy convection that is forming as intensification occurs? I wondered about this last night with Katrina. It seemed sometimes that the lopsided band had an inertia and a pull on the center of the storm, such that the movement of the eye temporarily curved around the convection, causing a jog to the S.
It is almost certain that in general it is going W and then a turn to the N, so I am thinking don't read too much into every jog as far as direction.
Before I went to sleep last night (I stayed up for the 3am advis), I thought that once Katrina got out over water the bands would be on the S and SE (which they are) but expected them to wrap around to the N and W faster than what I am currently seeing on radar, especially since sat image shows outflow is good.
| MadDog |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 04:34 PM |
|
Re: Plans and thoughts...
|
Rainfall totals so far for this storm in the Keys is 8 - 10 inches. I wonder if they were prepared for this deluge?
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 04:48 PM |
|
Re: Plans and thoughts...
|
SPECULATION FORECAST..............................................You know,, this storm has even confused me on the track and the best model outside the Nogaps has been the ETA. I say this cause I remember when this was just named a TS way down near Abaco and points south that the ETA came out and said it was going to move wsw like the nogaps but the nogaps had a error in it jogging this NW at first to north of Palm Beach before the wsw turn. ETA hasnt been consistant though in the fact it wants to jump on the rest of the models and turn this with the rest. Again with the 12z it does but at first it keeps it wsw for 24hours then comes to a drift west then a sharper turn N on Sunday then NE to where my landfall is between Cross City and Cedar Key Monday morning.
I havnt seen most of the 12z runs yet. I looked at the poor GFS and I mean poor by it not having a good record on Tropical Systems. It does well in midlatitude systems though, thats why the NWS likes to use it. Anyways the GFS has been the Nogaps little brother..always tags along with him 12-24hrs later.It has landfall between NO. and Pens,Fl. IM throwing out anything west of Panama City, Fl and Ill give ya my reasons now. Once again, this is just speculation and Ill probably get this wrong. I dont like doing this but I like to give a 3 day forecast. My confidence in this forecast goes again most models and you can take the logic in it but of course dont rely on it,
As I see it, we have a strong ridge thats weakning over LA and Miss. That along with a inverted weak trough over the NW carribean has pulled Katrina sw-wsw over the last 24 hours as most predicted. Thing was how strong the ridge was. Stronger the ridge and shape of it n-s pulled it down more. Also weak trough heading now into the se with dry air into central florida. This may carve her more sw then expected over the next 12-24hours. I expect the ridge over the La area to migrate west and weaken as a trough over the western great lakes and Ohio valley move over the Mississippi valley by Saturday. The main mechanism I see is a ridge entering the NW U.S. at this time moving NE. With a ridge building NE it will cause more of a trough over the central and eventually eastern US. This is being supported by a 2nd pulse dropping fast out of Wyoming into the plains currently this will be the drive to push Katrina N and NE Sunday into Monday. I expect the trough to dig into the Tennessee valley on Saturday and SE US on Sunday. The current ridge will be be over SE TX by then with a weak ridge over the Bahamas. A weakness will then be formed between the 2 pushing anything N in the eastern gulf. Now I expect the trough to slow but continue SE across GA and Ala by Monday morning making anything in the northen and eastern gulf to turn NE.
Overall with that being said above,,expect Katrina to move wsw with a slowdown later tomorrow. I then expect a wobble or 2 in a N, NE direction before a slow NNW motion Saturday night and a turn to the N and NNE during the day on Sunday. By Sunday night she will be up near 27-28N and near 85 W and will move NE late sunday night into monday making landfall Monday near Cross City -Cedar Key. Strengthning to a Cat 3 or higher isnt out of the question ,,infact I said way before it was near florida that she would be a Cat 3 in the gulf. Right now I think she can peak out at 130-135mph. Nearing landfall I think she will be down some due to shear along the SE U.S. possibly 115-120mph. Anyways this is just speculation and using maybe not the BEST of my abilities at forecasting but trying to find out a solution to this storm.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 04:51 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Plans and thoughts...
|
Quote:
Rainfall totals so far for this storm in the Keys is 8 - 10 inches. I wonder if they were prepared for this deluge?
Last night I was wondering when the more westward movement was going to start occuring. I figured that if it kept on 225 deg, around morning Katrina would have been sitting just to the NW of Key West. What an unpleasant surprise that would have been to many residents who went to bed hearing it was going to go due W of Ft. Lauderdale and exit at Naples, to wake up to the convection bands of a Cat 1 hurricane. As it was, it didn't go quite that close (not due to a change in dir though, but due to the fact that it slowed down), although it came to NW of Key West and is now moving to the W of that. Early early this morning, when it was just coming offshore, the outer bands had a curve that matched the curve of the keys, and just sat there spinning over them. It is a little strange. The flood predictions for FL mainland also seemed to be a little out of sync. They were for further north, and all last night the rain bands camped over Homestead and points N, and you could see the rain totals there go over 12" as the evening progressed, and see the 10" and 12" areas expand. The general warnings were correct for a heavy rain event on S FL, but as far as the specific areas that were most affected, I guess that one was hard to call in advance.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 04:52 PM |
|
|
Direction
|
The models seem compelling that Katrina will eventually turn north. But since she appears to be making constant SW jogs- would it be possible that she can also slow down and could that trough force her to prematurely turn NE instead of N?
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 04:55 PM |
|
Re: Plans and thoughts...
|
The radar seems consistent now that any further slide to the south is halting.
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 04:59 PM |
|
Re: Direction
|
This goes with the question I asked earlier. Does any one think that this might have a chance of turning North early and coming across the state? She is going to have to be going west for a while before she turns North to go up to the panahandle. Just don't know. I do not know where to find all of the pressure maps with the ridges to try and speculate. I have not learned THAT much yet. Any insight........
| Reaper |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 05:00 PM |
|
Re: Direction
|
It's gonna stink if she gets out past radar range.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 05:05 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Plans and thoughts...
|
Okay, I'll admit that my eyes are tired...but it appears to me that if Katrina is moving, it's not moving very fast. It appeared on the Key West radar that earlier the NW quadrant of the eye was open; last loops look like it has closed again.
A few more hours of loops shall give us a better idea of where she will eventually end up...I hope.
| SirCane |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 05:06 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Category 2 Hurricane Katrina Back Over the Water, Strengthening
|
This thing is strating to scare me a bit. All that warm water ahead of it and 100mph ALREADY. Models all shifting to somewhere between N.O. and Panama City. Not good.
Is it even worth living here anymore? We are getting pretty used to it.
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 05:12 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Plans and thoughts...
|
No news reports on how much rain cuba has gotten but the outer bands have been sitting over cuba for like FOREVER...
| ZooKeeper |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 05:12 PM |
|
|
Re: Plans and thoughts...
|
I'm going to be praying to the Gods that you're wrong on this one even though it seems well thought out. I live 20 miles from Cedar Key down the Suwannee and only about 17 acres of my 40 is dry. If this baby comes thru there the low lying areas along the river are going to see some serious flooding. Also, this area was only brushed by some of the storms last year and had some major problems (flooding, power outages, tree damage, etc.).
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 05:15 PM |
|
Re: Plans and thoughts...
|
Was wondering when & if you were going to say this...wondered about such a scenario since yesterday a.m. & although landfall was close to offical the track was further south...too many reports of unprepared & the stakes are even higher now that she's in the gulf. If you look at the 1st dozen of the SWFMD animated runs Bamm had at 1st latched onto a similiar course as Katrina is on now although they have the north turn much further east than the panhandle or big bend area.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 05:15 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Plans and thoughts...
|
Quote:
The radar seems consistent now that any further slide to the south is halting.
No, but movement is very slow now to the SW.
Not zoomed in, it looks like no movement at all.
Go to Key West radar loop...zoom in very tight on the eye area. Stop the motion and compare the general location of the center in the first and last frames, and you will see a small but definite SW movement as predicted.
Looks like that convection is starting to wrap around.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 05:15 PM |
|
Re: Direction
|
Best guess is that this will not recross the peninsula! Stay with that, as that is what the data indicates. The models run statistical analysis of the data and that is what they tell us...What Scott suggested above however, based on his visual analysis, is still in the so called cone of uncertainty.
| Big Kahuna |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 05:35 PM |
|
|
Re: Direction
|
Its down to 25.0N Some radars I looked at it looked as if it might have dipped just below but its back up.
URNT12 KNHC 261614
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 26/15:56:50Z
B. 25 deg 00 min N
082 deg 27 min W
C. 700 mb 2870 m
D. 55 kt
E. 49 deg 035 nm
F. 136 deg 074 kt
G. 53 deg 019 nm
H. 971 mb
I. 13 C/ 3051 m
J. 18 C/ 3057 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C10
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 1012A KATRINA OB 11
MAX FL WIND 83 KT SE QUAD 14:40:40 Z
EYEWALL RAGGED
Closed Eye and I look what the pilot said...... This is about a half hour old.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 05:43 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Direction
|
Yeah I'm wondering if that drier air to the NNW of the storm is impacting the NW side?
Well the 17:02Z vortex msg lowers the pressure from 971mb to 969mb, temp gradient between the eye and eyewall has increased from 5 to 7 deg, max flt winds incr from 83kt to 87 kt in SE quad...however eye has gone eliptical (as can be seen on radar) and pilot's comments: EYE WALL OPEN AT 10,000FT IN NW, CLOSED AT SURFACE.
The latest wv sat image does show a little drying out on the W side.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 05:46 PM |
|
Re: Direction
|
the latest radar show much more pronounced northward movement...
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 05:51 PM |
|
Re: Direction
|
12Z NOGAPs west to MS/AL border
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wx...prp&tau=084
12Z GFDL brings storm to east of Biloxi MS
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 25.2 81.9 255./ 6.0
6 25.2 82.4 276./ 4.4
12 25.2 82.9 268./ 4.7
18 25.5 83.2 309./ 3.4
24 25.9 83.7 309./ 6.0
30 26.2 84.4 297./ 6.5
36 26.4 85.2 283./ 8.2
42 26.5 86.1 279./ 7.8
48 26.9 87.0 295./ 8.7
54 27.3 87.8 299./ 8.2
60 27.8 88.2 316./ 6.4
66 28.4 88.6 329./ 6.8
72 29.5 88.7 354./11.0
78 30.6 88.8 355./10.6
84 31.5 88.7 8./ 9.4
90 32.7 88.3 16./12.2
96 34.5 87.9 14./17.7
102 36.4 87.4 14./20.0
108 38.1 86.9 16./17.4
114 39.4 86.7 11./13.3
120 40.8 86.0 26./14.2
126 41.7 85.1 48./11.4
12Z UKMET also shifted significantly west to off the SE tip of LA
whether this all comes to fruition remains to be seen but certainly not good news for the MS/AL areas
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 06:01 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Direction
|
yes it just wobbled a bit n/n-w. there's definately some weakness on the leading edge of the eye...
| Big Kahuna |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 06:04 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Direction
|
25deg 00min N and at 1700z it at 24deg 55min N. Could be just a wobble but it looks like shes still wsw.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 06:10 PM |
|
Re: Direction
|
Quote:
the latest radar show much more pronounced northward movement...
which storm you looking at? this storm has not moved north at all its at 25.0 you sure you got the right storm?
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 06:12 PM |
|
Re: Direction
|
The 2:00 still indicates wsw & pressure dropping...969.
Tons of rain in the Keys...has anyone seen any reports from out of there?
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 06:12 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Direction
|
2 pm still moving wsw 24.9 82.6 means .1 south and .3 west
per nhc
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 06:15 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Direction
|
Eye just grew a bunch on radar and visually it looked like it went north but it was just the north edge of the eye expanding. it's still W slightly S/W.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 06:17 PM |
|
Re: Direction
|
lets hope you are right, but again using a very unscientific tool, a straight edge, along the top of the COC, over a few frames the entire COC became visible above the edge....also no portion of the northern edge of the circulation visible on the radar had edged north of Naples, but now it has, again not very scientific, but there is a northern component to it...I guess it is debatable
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 06:18 PM |
|
Re: Direction
|
based on the lastest run of models I expect perhaps another slight shift to the west at 5:00... Al/FL line maybe
http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm
| lawgator |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 06:23 PM |
|
Re: Category 2 Hurricane Katrina Back Over the Water, Strengthening
|
Just a note here about two phenomena I feel I am observing with commnetary on Katrina. First, I get the sense as I review the NHC site that there is less and less willingness to explain the reasoning behind the forecast track. I personally think it is out of concern that folks reading it will "buy into" too much or too little of it and plan accordingly, perhaps only to be caught flat footed if things change. After Charley's unexpected early right hand turn last year, who can blame them? Just seems to me that prior to Miami landfall the NHC was much more forthcoming about where and why. Seem to be playing it much closer to the vest now, I am sure in part because Katrina might be so much more devastating the second time around.
Wondering first of all if any of the folks who frequent this site feel the same way?
Second, the folks who do frequent this site (myself included) I believe are more apt to awfulize storm factors in relation to where we personally live. For example, I live in Orlando. "Do I detect an early northward jog?" "Would that mean the storm will landfall further east than currently forecast?" My personal favorite theory (from my own head last night as I went to bed): If the storm goes further south than expected, doesn't that mean both that the turn to the west will be shorter and that there will be more time over water for it to turn back east? LOL.
My point is, as someone obviously interested in whether the storm turns earlier or more eastward, what is going to happen in my backyard?
The reason I say these phenomena are related is that the kind of attention I pay to the forecast advisories is exactly WHY the NHC might have to think twice before expounding upon their reasoning. Why talk about the factors involved in the latest BAM or GFS runs when someone like me might look at it and, if I personally detect an error down the road even the slightest, convince myself that the storm is obviously making a beeline for my pool?
Truth be told I'd like to see cooler heads prevail on here. I am an offender just like everyone else. But I for one this time around (and hopefully in the future) plan to take my precuations, monitor the storms, take interest in the climatology, but not anoint myself the one person on Earth who can see that Katrina is headed for the 800 block of Brickell Avenue.
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 06:27 PM |
|
Re: Direction
|
What will be interesting Frank is to see 00Z runs tonight see if they keep the W shift on.If that should be the case this girl has all the Mets guessi'n.Steve pointed out the window for NO is closing if she was ever to make it that far.I think we now have four Global Models on SE LA to the MS/AL line.
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 06:29 PM |
|
NWS Radar
|
Has anyone else had trouble updating the radar recently?
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 06:29 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Category 2 Hurricane Katrina Back Over the Water, Strengthening
|
Well have to say Katrina's CDO looks real impressive now. I think in a few hours we may see an eye.
| thomas alascio |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 06:32 PM |
|
|
Re: Category 2 Hurricane Katrina Back Over the Water, Strengthening
|
What about that area of low pressure out in the eastern atlantic?
| Big Kahuna |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 06:34 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Direction
|
This is an intresting graph
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html
I wonder if the NHC will change the forcast and if so will it be more west?
| Reaper |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 06:34 PM |
|
|
|
Re: NWS Radar
|
I'm getting the:
"Radar Temporarliy Unavailable"
Screen on everthing past 1:53 PM Eastern.
That's on Tampa and Key west radar.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 06:36 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Direction
|
Quote:
What will be interesting Frank is to see 00Z runs tonight see if they keep the W shift on.If that should be the case this girl has all the Mets guessi'n.Steve pointed out the window for NO is closing if she was ever to make it that far.I think we now have four Global Models on SE LA to the MS/AL line.
Don't go too much by the models. Remember what happened with Dennis. FLIP FLOP! Just kidding. No, they went back and forth as to the point of landfall, right up to the hours before landfall. The NHC guidance was consistent, except for the one forecast which shifted landfall to MOB the night before landfall, and their track record very good. If you spend this weekend looking at landfall points for the models after every run, hey, you'll be in a padded room by Monday!
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 06:38 PM |
|
Re: NWS Radar
|
This thing doesn't look like it is making much progress at all in the 1745-1820Z radar not much movement noted except the eyewall seems elongating more northward as I mentioned earlier...there is not much change in the position from the 1720 Z position either...
| StormKrone |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 06:41 PM |
|
|
Re: Direction
|
Hello from the Big Bend…. Well... you can blame(credit) any sou'westerly movement on me...
I am huffing and puffing as hard as I can to keep it away.. Honest!!!On a more serious note, ARC Disaster Services (Tallahassee) is now on stand-by and I will be going in to hdqtrs tomorrow noon. Logistics and staffing, that’s my game!! <g>
Basically, we have had record rainfall, something like 21" since June 1 (I think) and 46” this year. So the ground is soaked. This is much the same conditions that met Hurricane Kate back in 1985. A fact that hasn't escaped local meterologists. Kate came ashore at Apalachicola in Nov. 1985, as a Cat 1 (as I remember) and the next morning the trees looked like a tangle of fiddlesticks. This is definitely a possibility if any part of this storm hits near... and, as some models indicate, we would be on the 'wrong side'...
We were without power for over a week... and some longer. A huge oak behind my apartment was pulled up/out/over by the roots, due to the soggy ground. It could happen again..
Seems kind of 'deja vu-like' that both storms are "Ks"... Kate the last and late storm of the season, and Katrina, perhaps the first of a new wave of hurricanes closing out this season....
Dee
| hurricane expert |
| (Really Not an Expert) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 06:46 PM |
|
Re: Category 2 Hurricane Katrina Back Over the Water, Strengthening
|
Where is the current trough located in the u.s right know that might make this system turn more to the N/E.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 06:52 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Category 2 Hurricane Katrina Back Over the Water, Strengthening
|
wow in last 30mins there has been another BIG flare up of convection over the center....looks like she is still getting stronger.... here's my latest radar pic... br titl 1 ....also RSO is on Katrina....
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 06:55 PM |
|
Re: Category 2 Hurricane Katrina Back Over the Water, Strengthening
|
Quote:
Where is the current trough located in the u.s right know that might make this system turn more to the N/E.
I want to know this too since I am still learning.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 06:58 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Category 2 Hurricane Katrina Back Over the Water, Strengthening
|
Bingo. She did it. Eye (smaller) is now visible on sat as well, and eyewall looking almost complete.
I have seen this while watching and learning this year and should have known what was going on. She sloughed off some outer stuff around the western edge, consolidated and shrunk just a tiny bit, and now is getting there towards that symmetrical shape. It was deepening and I didn't see it. I had thought she was starting to get more disorganized; it looked that way to me up until just about 17:45Z on the sat images.
Edit - wrong. Well, I spoke too soon. Boy that moisture just cannot make it around to the N.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 06:59 PM |
|
Re: Category 2 Hurricane Katrina Back Over the Water, Strengthening
|
Lawgator, you make an interesting point. They tend to hold their cards tight, given the potential devastation that this Could bring. And on the other note, we tend to be concerned about our own backyard, but that's human nature. That said, blah,blah,blah east/ne LOL! She's really cranking now though, and where she ends up we don't exactly know. Had a guy working on a proposal here who has to run up to his house near Eglin, board up, then come back. I don't envy him. Man, things could be a lot worse. Cheers!!
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 06:59 PM |
|
Re: Plans and thoughts...
|
See my SPECULATION FORECAST
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showthreaded.php?Cat=0&Number=50118&page=0&vc=1
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 07:01 PM |
|
|
|
intensification
|
i didn't think it would get past cat 1 today. it busted that idea about 30 mins after i stated my case. now i'm gonna go for it not getting past cat 2 for the next 12 hrs, because there's a pretty sizeable area of dry mid-level air diving down from the north, which should erode the convection and keep katrina very lopsided, with most of the storm remaining on the se side. the intake of dry air should slacken up to modest and weak by late tomorrow/sunday... that's when i think the storm will strengthen significantly. gonna stick with the cat 3 idea for now because cat 4s tend to spin down before hitting.. but the conditions are obviously there for katrina to get a great deal stronger.
caught a few joe b comments this morning.. he mentioned that the pressure could bottom out around 910mb by his reckoning. if the favorable outflow environment, slight baroclinic kick, and 87-88F waters are any indication, that isn't outside of the realm of possibility. better root for the dry air to keep piling into the storm.
gonna keep the impact point around bay/gulf counties for now, monday morning.
away east 97L finally has a co-located center and deep convection, but the cyclonic flow around it is now broad, and it's still in a sheared/subsidence rich environment. it should break through that shearing trough in the next day or two.. and spin up depending on what it has left.
southeast of there is another cyclonic turning/low pressure area.. with isolated to scattered convection. it also has the potential to slowly develop over the next couple of days. probably an invest tomorrow.
HF 1901z26august
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 07:05 PM |
|
Re: intensification
|
Quote:
southeast of there is another cyclonic turning/low pressure area.. with isolated to scattered convection. it also has the potential to slowly develop over the next couple of days. probably an invest tomorrow.
HF 1901z26august
Actually Hank, it's already an invest. First model run on that system: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_90.gif
Looks like at least a possible threat to the islands next week.
| D3m3NT3DVoRT3X |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 07:08 PM |
|
|
|
Re: intensification
|
has anyone gotten any information from the keys they sure look to be gettin pounded for hours on end .. geeez.. and it seem in the last couple of radar frames out of key west it hasnt move much @ all ... http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 07:10 PM |
|
|
|
Re: intensification
|
URNT12 KNHC 261720
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 26/17:02:50Z
B. 24 deg 55 min N
082 deg 32 min W
C. 700 mb 2853 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 250 deg 073 kt
G. 149 deg 009 nm
H. 969 mb
I. 9 C/ 3046 m
J. 16 C/ 3057 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. E15/16/10
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 1012A KATRINA OB 18
MAX FL WIND 87 KT SW QUAD 16:01:40 Z
EYE WALL OPEN AT 10,000FT IN NW, CLOSED AT SURFACE
this was earlier and kinda interesting......there is now new convection near center and will be interesting to see what the winds do next... i think the pane AF304 is nearing her flight time and i don't think will get another vortex drop from Katrina for a little while, unless a noaa P-3 is out there now .... i am not sure... and to reference the eye feature.... i don't think there is an eye just yet visible on sats...just new convection near center.
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 07:11 PM |
|
|
Re: intensification
|
Can someone give me a clue in on 90L invest and 97L invest.
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 07:13 PM |
|
Re: intensification
|
Recon just had a measurement of 108 and 105 mph winds in the northeast quad. That is the highest finding iso far of their flights today. Pressure now at 968mb.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 07:13 PM |
|
|
|
Re: intensification
|
I noticed that dry air earlier and asked if that was what was eroding the NW development. Looks like one step forward, one step back. Short time ago she finally got the nice smaller eyewall going (radar at 18:53Z), and just as quickly, it came and went (radar 19:10Z).
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 07:14 PM |
|
|
|
Re: intensification
|
opps! guess we will
URNT12 KNHC 261909
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 26/18:48:20Z
B. 24 deg 48 min N
082 deg 45 min W
C. 700 mb 2834 m
D. 45 kt
E. 225 deg 033 nm
F. 313 deg 083 kt
G. 232 deg 011 nm
H. 968 mb
I. 11 C/ 3060 m
J. 19 C/ 3049 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. OPEN NW
M. E05/16/10
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF304 1012A KATRINA OB 23
MAX FL WIND 83 KT SE QUAD 14:40:40 Z\
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 07:18 PM |
|
Re: Direction
|
I think if I remember Margie the GFDL swung out to the left at the last couple of runs while the others were still in and around FL(Dennis).The GFDL finally went back to FL.What I am looking for is some consistency of the patterns they have been flip floping thus far with Katrina.The Glolbals being the dynamic models and starting to come together does say a little of something.Just have to see if the upcoming runs are the same.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 07:18 PM |
|
|
|
Re: intensification
|
Well she is putting up the good fight, isn't she? Pressure and temp diff incrementally inproving with each vortex msg.
Summarizing comparisons from the three vortex msg:
15:56Z / 17:02Z/ 18:48Z
Pressure 971mb / 969mb / 968mb,
temp gradient 5deg / 7deg / 8deg,
max fl wind 83kt / 87kt / 83kt all in SE quad
Ok so what we're seeing is the mix of two opposites at work: deepening, combined with weakening from infusions of dry air from the NNW, Katrina holding her own.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 07:24 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Direction
|
Quote:
What I am looking for is some consistency of the patterns they have been flip floping thus far with Katrina.
And what I'm saying is I wouldn't be surprised if they kept flip flopping. Model guidance had clustered on the FL panhandle; now it is evenly dist along the N Gulf Coast. Expect that to keep changing.
| Liz |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 07:25 PM |
|
|
|
Re: intensification The Keys
|
I was wondering the same thing. I don't think they were prepared to get a pounding like they are getting.
Liz
| Wingman51 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 07:35 PM |
|
Here We go again
|
We just got a flyer from management here in Orlando about 2 more developing issues in the ATL - - any thought from the mets on site - - also - are there any indications of a strong NE shift for this weekend - - ie. south Big Bend area?? :?:
| D3m3NT3DVoRT3X |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 07:35 PM |
|
|
|
Re: intensification The Keys
|
from the key west radar it lokks like it hasnt even moved ..?? and any mets if you're around where is the front that is going to push old kat north then east @ this time .. ?
| SirCane |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 07:41 PM |
|
|
|
Re: intensification The Keys
|
I don't know but this thing could get very ugly. There's no reason for it not to. I hope it doesn't get stronger than a 3 but that could be wishful thinking.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 07:44 PM |
|
|
|
Re: intensification The Keys
|
cnn just showed flhurricane on tv.....great web site to view
-- thanks Storm..
| TheElNino |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 07:45 PM |
| Attachment |
|
|
Re: intensification
|
I just read JB's article, he thinks Katrina may go all the way down to 920mb on Sunday afternoon and any weakening prior to landfall will be minor. I'd agree with him since the water temps in the far northern Gulf have warmed up to 88 - 90 degrees since Dennis used up some of the energy last month. With light shear, very warm water, an upper high providing divergence, only dry air may prevent Katrina from approaching Camille levels (905mb). Katrina kind of looks like Camille even.
| Hawkeyewx |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 07:46 PM |
|
Re: intensification The Keys
|
I was thinking the same thing about the dry air. It is pretty clearly almost a stalemate now between the dry air being pulled in from the north and the deep moisture feed from the south. There has been some northerly mid to upper level flow over the storm since just before it hit Florida and so far it shows no sign of abating. The models show Katrina moving under the center of the upper level high in the next one to two days so that should allow further strengthening.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 07:51 PM |
|
Re: Direction
|
Hello everyone, it's been a while since I've been here.
These model forecasts are so tough to judge. The GFS actually had it moving off the SE coast for one run the other day, now it takes it into the midwest. I thought the ETA was out to lunch when it moved it SW across Florida, and it ended up doing that. Hard to predict movement when it is slow and erratic. Having said all that, the link below is from the NWS on the "improvements" (hard to see them yet lol) in the GFS.
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/s2491.htm
Looking at a water vapor loop starting yesterday, it looks like the trough that moved off the east coast was followed by a building ridge that suppressed the storm track. It appears that effect shouldn't persist much longer.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/movies/g8wv/g8wvjava.html
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 07:53 PM |
|
|
Re: Direction
|
Model plots continue to move farther west....way west...after Ivan and Dennis, this is driving me nuts! If this hits near Pensacola..Iwill return in a few weeks with the new screen name of Arizona!!!!!!
| hurricane expert |
| (Really Not an Expert) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 07:56 PM |
|
Re: Category 2 Hurricane Katrina Back Over the Water, Strengthening
|
I dont trust these models right know they have the system moving way to west
| D3m3NT3DVoRT3X |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 07:57 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Direction
|
if anyone was wondering where JB's videos went to .. watch point counter point he siad they were never suposed to be on yahoo vids... @ any rate .. with the storm moving as slow as it is . kind of just sitting there from what i can see on radar will that have any change on the the track .. IE: why the nhc has not moved thier track thats much .. ?
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 08:01 PM |
|
Re: Category 2 Hurricane Katrina Back Over the Water, Strengthening
|
Agreed...lool at this spaghetti run:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 08:05 PM |
|
Re: Category 2 Hurricane Katrina Back Over the Water, Strengthening
|
Katrina almost appears to have stalled judging by the radar out of Key West (and poor Key West!). To the untrained eye, the center of circulation has not moved for almost an hour.
Northern eyewall still can't seem to close.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kbyx.shtml
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 08:07 PM |
|
|
Re: intensification The Keys
|
How could they? Who thinks a that a hurricane is going to continue to move at 6-7mph an hour west even though theres a relative weakness in the GOM. Very bizarre caine'.
Quote:
I was wondering the same thing. I don't think they were prepared to get a pounding like they are getting.
Liz
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 08:07 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Category 2 Hurricane Katrina Back Over the Water, Strengthening
|
Many of the models have moved over 400 miles west since this AM.....any logical explanations??
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 08:08 PM |
|
Re: Category 2 Hurricane Katrina Back Over the Water, Strengthening
|
Just an FYI...NRL has 90L up for the 1009 mb low at 10N/35W. No other detail yet, but they have it at 25 knots. Agree Red, not a whole lot of movement during the past hour.
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 08:09 PM |
|
|
|
Re: intensification The Keys
|
Exactly...all it's doing is keeping it in the GOM with nice warm water...spinning it up...
| mbfly |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 08:11 PM |
|
|
Re: Category 2 Hurricane Katrina Back Over the Water, Strengthening
|
Quote:
Agreed...lool at this spaghetti run:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png
OK, I wasn't worried this morning.............. NOW I am !!
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 08:11 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Direction
|
Quote:
Model plots continue to move farther west....way west...after Ivan and Dennis, this is driving me nuts! If this hits near Pensacola..Iwill return in a few weeks with the new screen name of Arizona!!!!!!
Remember what I said earlier about the padded room LOL!
Yes, faster than you can make a pb&j, the model guidance clustered around the central FL peninsula, then went to evenly dist over N GOM, now clustering around LA/MS (what's with the latest BAMS?). FLIP FLOP! (I just love saying that
-- it doesn't actually apply, because all the change means is that each run is taking into account the newest weather data, and these chaotic systems aren't the easiest things to track long range with so many variables).I prefer giddy silliness to the padded room. Just wait until Sun night; we'll all be a little goofy by then.
I expect we'll see a met post soon that'll explain the reasoning behind the changes in model guidance in terms of the overall weather pats. I think everyone is waiting for the 5pm advis and to see what shakes out from that.
One hard call after another...that's really what is making Katrina most interesting.
Well one good thing, as long as Katrina stays put, we can watch her on Miami long-range radar.
| D3m3NT3DVoRT3X |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 08:28 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Direction
|
as far as directions goes .. i would guess .. stationary i've been sitting @ my desk here @ work watching old girl sit and spin .. moving no where for maybe the last 1 1/2 -2 hrs . it could be my untrianed eyes .. from watching the same loop .. but anyone else seeing the same thing ? .
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 08:29 PM |
|
|
|
little ones to the east
|
well, i'm watching how 97L looks now. the latest t-rating was 1.0, so since nhc has switched to that as their reasoning to not classify the system (usual baseline is 1.5)... that's just the latest twist. it is true that the llc has turned into one of those transient mini-vortex type centers that reforms rather than moves, but i'd reiterate that this feature is not classified because it's in the open atlantic and not in the gulf. i'm thinking it will finally break through the shear zone into something less hostile (it's fought the subsidence admirably).. and the earlier model progs of it sensing a weakness and turning up are looking ok.. even though they're still getting it hung up in no-mans land further to the north.
the nrl site and ssd rating list didn't show another invest, but that feature around 12/38 is getting better organized, slowly. i think the next number will be 98L, unless td 12/katrina took it by default when it emerged out of what nrl was tracking as old 10. the system in front of it is probably creating enough of a weakness for the new feature to sense it and turn up, but the ridge is rebuilding early next week, so it might not do more than gain some latitude and continue west. some of the globals were taking it all the way across earlier... it might try if the zonal ridge progged next week verifies and holds.
oh yeah, and there's this big hurricane in the gulf, by the way. guess we'll revert back to the real story.
hmm.. we made cnn? hope they know we're mostly amateurs.
HF 2028z26august
| disneyfanfl |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 08:31 PM |
|
|
Re: Direction
|
What is the ETA model? I noticed on the spaghetti run that someone posted that it's the only one that is close (in fact, east of) the official NHC track. I agree with what someone else asked, which is why the NHC track hasn't moved all that much despite drastic moves in the models. I know they usually don't make huge changes, but they have stuck to the central panhandle of Florida with only slight alterations. Could this ETA model have something to do with that?
I guess the 5PM disco might shed some light on this. I just wonder if her lack of movement might shift the track even more one way or another.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 08:32 PM |
|
Re: Direction
|
Yep confirmed that by watching several radar loops on the Plymouth State site...she is rotating about herself and has been for about two hours..
| Huskerchaser |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 08:33 PM |
Re: Category 2 Hurricane Katrina Back Over the Water, Strengthening
|
Newbee here ... Looking at radar, the storm seems pretty stationary to me. I think with the slow movement of this storm ... these models will be swinging like a pendulum.
| WeatherNLU |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 08:33 PM |
|
|
Re: Direction
|
I have it on good word that the 5PM track will be shifted 150 miles west to near Biloxi, MS. Possible CAT 4 at landfall.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 08:34 PM |
|
|
|
Re: little ones to the east
|
Hank a ? I got to thinking about the vortex data. How is it possible the gradient increased to 8 deg with the eyewall still open?
in spite of sucking that dry stuff down, it still wants to intensify. if it stalls that'll mess the future track up, not to mention introduce the parameters for upwelling. those near shore-florida waters aren't very deep. -HF
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 08:35 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Direction
|
may be responding to all that dry air intruding on the NW side. tropical systems with weak steering and that kind of forced asymmetry will do things like that sometimes.
HF 2034z26august
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 08:37 PM |
|
|
Re: Direction
|
ETA or what is now called NAM is your basic operational model. Usually it has fitful times dealing with tropical systems. In fact it's been all over the place for the last couple of days, not connecting mid-latitude weather with the tropics having it literally stall out in the GoM.
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 08:40 PM |
|
Re: Direction
|
I read that also out of the Birmingham NWS" expect a significant westward shift at 5:00PM"
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 08:40 PM |
|
Re: Direction
|
5PM STILL MOVING
Hurricane Katrina Advisory Number 14
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 26, 2005
...Katrina continuing to move west-southwestward away from the
Florida Keys...
...Watches and warnings discontinued for Mainland Florida...
at 5 PM EDT...2100z...all warnings and watches for peninsular
Florida have been discontinued.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys
and Florida Bay from Key Largo south and westward to Key West and
the Dry Tortugas.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Katrina was located
near latitude 24.8 north... longitude 82.9 west or about 70
miles... west-northwest of Key West Florida.
Katrina is moving toward the west-southwest near 8 mph. This motion
is forecast to continue this evening...with a gradual turn toward
the west expected on Saturday.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 08:40 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Direction
|
pressure down to 965mb, winds still at 100mph. haven't seen the forecast track yet.
HF 2040z26august
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 08:41 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Direction
|
Quote:
I have it on good word that the 5PM track will be shifted 150 miles west to near Biloxi, MS. Possible CAT 4 at landfall.
That puts Jackson Cty right in the bulls-eye. There's no way they are preapred for that.
Glad it's not set in stone and just a possibility, albiet a more probable one.
Thanks for the heads up. Just left a msg to pass the word on to my brother at the sheriff's dept in Jackson Cty...imagine once their EMS gets the 5pm advis things will shift into high gear there. A Biloxi Cat 4 landing would cause most threat to Ocean Springs and Gautier, but all of Jackson Cty would have a big issue with flooding and getting everyone out in time.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 08:41 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Direction
|
based on radar....does look like she has slowed down to a crawl.... but in last few images...i think a more west movement has taken place.....would say she is moving less than 5kts now.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 08:42 PM |
|
Re: Direction
|
THEY moved it to ALA this trend does not look good for the people in LA as it keeps going west.But as we all know it could shift back but the trend has been west.
Still moving but thank God its not went up in winds like some thought.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 08:42 PM |
|
4pm Adv...
|
New NHC landfall point is now Southern Mobile County AL midafternoon Monday...more forthcoming...(per NWS Mobile)
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 08:44 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Category 2 Hurricane Katrina Back Over the Water, Strengthening
|
Yes, it really doesn't look like it's moved at all. Maybe a smidgeon, but not much more than that. Also...have you noticed that since daybreak it's been "55 mile NE of Key West"; "50 miles N of Key West" now "45 WNW or WSW of Key West".
It may be stalling out, trying to decide where to go. And I'm not making any predictions, but if the models are right, looks like LA/MS are in big trouble.
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 08:45 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 4pm Adv...
|
That would pretty much guarantee the end of Pensacola Beach.....Same track as Ivan!
| TDW |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 08:45 PM |
|
Re: 4pm Adv...
|
Not to wish bad on someone else, but maybe things will keep shifting west past AL.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 08:45 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 4pm Adv...
|
hmm.. that's where i had it a couple of days ago, before switching to the panhandle. some times it pays to be stubborn, i guess. i'm guessing they have the first shortwave blowing by it, now? gotta go look at the models again, i reckon.
HF 2044z26august
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 08:48 PM |
|
Re: 4pm Adv...
|
At the NHC site looks to Ocean springs are Goula.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/150802.shtml?3day
| D3m3NT3DVoRT3X |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 08:50 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 4pm Adv...
|
that cone is pretty big still for only 3 days out .. wow
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 08:51 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 4pm Adv...
|
That's what the GFS concur's. The drifting south eastward really screwed up the track, now it's probably going to miss the intial connection. I knew something was kind of screwy a couple days back when they had it just accelerating right across the peninsula westward, when the main steering mechanism was becoming farther away.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 08:57 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 4pm Adv...
|
URNT12 KNHC 262050
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 26/20:25:10Z
B. 24 deg 46 min N
082 deg 50 min W
C. 700 mb 2810 m
D. 55 kt
E. 318 deg 270 nm
F. 040 deg 069 kt
G. 311 deg 014 nm
H. 965 mb
I. 11 C/ 3054 m
J. 17 C/ 3046 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. OPEN NW
M. E04/22/10
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 1012A KATRINA OB 28
MAX FL WIND 94 KT NE QUAD 18:52:50 Z
MAX FL TEMP 20C, 313 / 12NM
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 08:57 PM |
|
Re: 4pm Adv...
|
HF, maybe you should have stuck to your original forecast...
Colleen, we both know that these models will CHANGE again, especially with such a slow moving system.... heck, I can sneeze really hard in my front yard and its going to make some model change it track... now if they keep showing the same location run after run, then I'll get worried.... have not even issued a pucker pressure watch yet... all that could change however... regardless I could handle a 3... but a 4... me thinks not
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 08:57 PM |
|
Re: 4pm Adv...
|
I think they are trying to be conservative with the changes. Just because the models this run shifted left, doesn't mean they won't shift right next run. I think initial motion has a lot to do with the westward slant. As soon as it starts going west and then northwest, I think the models with shift back east...
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:00 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 4pm Adv...
|
Yowser! I couldn't pull up the Key West radar, so I pulled up Tampa Bay...and realized that we're about to get pounded here in Polk County! Guess I should pay more attention to what's ACTUALLY going on instead of what MIGHT happen.
Still...Key West radar isn't showing that much more movement.
HF...what does this do to the track? I wish hurricane season was over already.
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:00 PM |
|
|
|
new projections are apt to change
|
The NHC usually can peg these things...they do well with all of them. However, the steering currents on this are weak..as evidenced by the slow speed. I think Katrina is still moving west....the normal rotation of the earth will cause it to do that when there are no external influences....
Living on a boat in Mobile...and starting to wonder. Our whole office is buzzing....we've been watching this all day......
IF this were to strike New Orleans, it would be one of the greatest natural disasters in the history of the U.S...
especially if it gets to 4 or 5 status....just throwing things out there.....don't mean to be an alarmist....
hmm....
I have a feeling the track will adjust more...I would say anyone from Texas to Tampa better watch Katrina....
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:00 PM |
|
5 pm disco
|
http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/WTNT42.KNHC
| moose47 |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:01 PM |
|
Re: 4pm Adv...
|
Long time lurker here....I was just wondering when the last time a hurricane made landfall in the U.S. twice and it was stronger at the second landfall than the first. Seems like that is unusual but unfortunately highly probable here. In the process of writing this I thought of Hurricane Erin and sure enough it was a little stronger at second landfall but not by very much.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:01 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 4pm Adv...
|
think Katrina is about to show her eye soon....noticed in last few frames a dark shaded area is staring to show up.... close-up katrina
also the CDO is expanding on her too.....
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:04 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 4pm Adv...
|
LOL, Frank...the sneezing thing.
However, the models HAVE been trending towards the west more and more. So wouldn't that be indicative of a landfall further west? Although you're right....you just never know what the heck a storm is going to do.
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:05 PM |
|
Re: 4pm Adv...
|
I have a historical question too... how frequently do storms travel south in the GOM? Katrina's motion across Florida and since seems really strange behavior for a system to follow...
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:05 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 4pm Adv...
|
Quote:
That would pretty much guarantee the end of Pensacola Beach.....Same track as Ivan!
Only if the direct hit is way over past the east side of the bay, around Orange Beach.
Remember the damage swath from the highest winds is very narrow. That is why forecasting the path of a Cat 4 (and let's not go assuming anything yet) is so critical.
If a Cat 4 were to hit on the west side of MOB Bay, then Gulf Shores and Orange Beach, and downtown MOB (mainly from flooding) would be hardest hit, not Pensacola Beach.
Similar reasoning...a Biloxi hit, head on causes the most problem for back bay Biloxi residents due to flooding from offshore winds, and the highest winds to Ocean Springs, flooding in Jackson Cty. However an Ocean Springs direct hit causes devastation to all of Jackson Cty. But a hit as far west as Gulfport, Jackson Cty gets minimal wind and water damage. Anything to the east, a Mobile hit, Jackson Cty gets high winds and some flooding but not the brunt of the storm.
We're talking about differences of 20-30 miles making the difference in this type of scenario. Forecasting can't make those kinds of calls even when a storm is only 100 miles offshore, in every situation.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:06 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 4pm Adv...
|
One would think so Colleen, but remember Dennis, the models trended
west and west and west and then went east all the way to pcola up there
Hope this 1 doesnt do the same, although I know no one needs to get hit, someone is bound to.
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:07 PM |
|
Re: 4pm Adv...
|
That is true the point I was tring to make earlier was that a couple of models started drifting W on the 00Z.Then the next suceeding runs more and more models started the same track.If AT the 00Z tonight we are still seeing the same results w/time dwindling away this maybe the scenario from NO to Pensacola.Time is starting to run out unless the girl just decides to stall all together.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:08 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 4pm Adv...
|
Yes, I noticed a nice pocket of dry air this more morning on water vapor loops. That usually helps convection get going, and increases the possibility of severe thunderstorms. With all those boundaires assoicated with the storm running rampant I would suggest you watch the radar very carefully. :}
| FloydRTurbo |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:09 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 4pm Adv...
|
Quote:
That would pretty much guarantee the end of Pensacola Beach.....Same track as Ivan!
I'm not too sure about that, Ivan spent a long time at Cat 4 or better through the Carribean and GOM without hitting land, to me that means that the surge surrounding the storm never was impeded enough, hence the 90 ft wave and several 65 ft waves from that oceanographic sensor (I can't recall the exact source of that data, perhaps someone can remind me). Perhaps one of the experts on here can verify that for me (or disprove me), it would seem to make sense that the longer a Cat 4/5 spins in open water, the bigger the surge. I was amazed at the damage in Milton being that it was inland, and the damage to I-10 but that water had no where else to go after being dragged as far as it had been. Any other historical info to back that idea up?
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:09 PM |
|
Re: 4pm Adv...
|
That is all true Margie and it 's going to be along weekend for the GOMERS.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:11 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 4pm Adv...
|
Not sure but of course it would be dependent on the track and many other factors, but unusal naw I think it's just a pattern. For some reason the penn state reanalysis site, nor the NCAR work on my computer.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:12 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 4pm Adv...
|
Eek....don't say the word STALL!
Well..the good news is that it's Friday and landfall --- wherever it may be -- isn't expected until Monday. Hopefully, this will give people in it's path enough time to prepare for whatever comes their way.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:13 PM |
|
other interesting links
|
Here is a satellite derived wind pic:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8wvir.html
Here is what it looked like 24 hours ago:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/archive/wg8wvir-8.html
Notice how the big ridge over the southern plains has shifted west a bit, and is not as quite well-rounded.
This shows the low level flow:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vis.html
This shows the lack of wind shear:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html
It is awesome to get these types of pictures from the internet.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:16 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 4pm Adv...
|
NHC discussion 14 - 30.0N 88.5W just shy of landfall 115kt - that's a direct hit Cat 4 on Pascagoula. Holey buckets, that gave me a bad rush. I'm trying to maintain my objectivity.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:21 PM |
|
Re: 4pm Adv...
|
This'll probably change often up until landfall. Until it finally makes it move, and turns, it will be difficult to tell.
Many years ago, discussions ended with something to the effect of "forecast errors may exceed several hundred miles", and that was when they only did 3 day forecasts. There has been tremendous improvement, as 5 day forecasts are now as accurate as those old 3 day forecasts, but I think this track is still written in pencil, with a good sized eraser on top.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:22 PM |
|
New Thread
|
New thread posted on the main board.
| TDW |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:25 PM |
|
Re: 4pm Adv...
|
The biggest problem from a Monday landfall may be that a lot of people will spend the weekend having too much fun and not paying attention to the warnings. Then Monday rolls around and its too late.
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:25 PM |
|
Re: new projections are apt to change
|
"...anyone from texas to Tampa better watch katrina"...one of the local mets there just flatout said nothing to worry about there...maybe some wind & rain...the track & cone...which iis off Tampa are set in stone as far as he's concerned...irresponsible if you ask me...especially with as much change & uncertainity we've had with katrina.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:35 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 4pm Adv...
|
Not only are you right but I have said the same thing myself several times the past 24 hours. Shame on me.
Actually that forecast position puts it due S of Pascagoula 20 mi out, which normally would mean a MOB Bay hit with the typical NNE movement towards the last 50 mi N. However the reason for concern is that the track keeps moving W...all it has to do is to move 15 more mi W and goodnight Jackson Cty.
However I need to take my own advice and chill. We like the roller coaster, right? I'll just stay on until Sunday night and we'll see how the cookie crumbles.
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:13 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 4pm Adv...
|
Monday is going to leave it simmering in the GOM pretty long...lets hope she doesn't turn into a behemouth...
What other storms have crawled along at this pace in recent memory? Seems like a pretty bizarre one huh?