(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 06:31 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

does anyone have current intensity forecasts from SHIPS, GFDL and FSU Superensemble?
last I saw SHIPS was showing 149/150mph.
thanks!

They only update those every 6hr, at 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC (currently 8p, 2a, 8a, and 2p, respectively), with the updates being made available to the public in the hours thereafter. --Clark

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 28 2005 06:32 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

Special Advisory. Very Strong Wording!!
HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005 edited~danielw

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND
FORECAST INTENSITY OF HURRICANE KATRINA. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 137
KT IN THE NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL... CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 125 KT AT
THE SURFACE. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE
AIRCRAFT WAS 935 MB. ALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE HAS REACHED 125 KT
MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...THE INTENSITY FORECAST UP
UNTIL LANDFALL HAS ONLY BEEN NUDGED UPWARD TO 130 KT.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT KATRINA COULD GET STRONGER THAN FORECAST AND
PERHAPS EVEN REACH CATEGORY FIVE
STATUS SOMETIME DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

ShanaTX

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 06:38 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

And for anyone out of radio range of WWL ... you can go to WWLTV and click on "Watch continuous coverage from Eyewitness News."

They keep updating all kinds of info -traffic info and conditions, weather, all kinds of stuff

Good for people out of town who need up to date local NO info...

from what they're saying now - if you can leave now, do so - traffic is lighter than it will be at daybreak...

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 06:42 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

speed at landfall is forecasted to be 11-12 knots .
any thoughts on how this will impact intensity and storm surge?

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 06:49 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

Here is an excellent web page with a graphic at the bottom showing various ways to understand the Saffir Simpson Scale; it lists not only wind speed but barometric pressure ranges, storm surge, potential damage, and information on representative storms.

http://www.answers.com/topic/saffir-simpson-hurricane-scale

KATFIVE

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Aug 28 2005 06:49 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

What factors out there might weaken this bad baby?

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 28 2005 06:52 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

One thing that forward speed will do, is increase the wind velocity by that much.... if the storm has about 145mph now, a 5 mph increase in forward speed would increase the winds by 5mph (assuming the strongest winds are in the right front quadrant).

Obviously, A faster forward speed also means that the storm has less time to churn up cold water and weaken itself.

I don't think 11 - 12Kts is fast enough to hinder a storm. So I can't see any inhibiting factors with that forward velocity.

-Mark

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 06:53 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

wow..... i bet the next flight will have some nice pics.....hope they take there cams.....the stadium must look sweet right now with the stars above......

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/data/satellite/latest_TPA_ir.jpg IR

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/data/satellite/latest_GULF_wv.jpg WV

i thought she would take a peek tonight with her eye.... didn't think she have that big of an eye.... going to be easy to track now *L*

JustMe

(Weather Guru)

Sun Aug 28 2005 06:53 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

weather channel is saying NO is under mandatory evacuation first time in the history of the city

I underwent Camille and evacuated now is the time to go be careful and God speed

nate77

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Aug 28 2005 06:55 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

Can you listen to 870 New Orleans Radio online? I found the link, but cant find a place on there site to listen live.

Thanks

ShanaTX

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 07:02 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

Listen to WWLTV online. Click on "Watch continuous coverage from Eyewitness News."

WWL Radio doesn't seem to be simulcasting...

LisaMaria65

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Aug 28 2005 07:02 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

Does anyone know what if any, conditions may be out there that would cause this monster head more West and hit around Intracoastal City, La?

I am in Lafayette, Louisiana. If it happens to come through Intracoastal City or New Iberia, Lafayette will be right in its path as it was for Hurricane Lili in 2002.

Also, if it stays on its current course and does impact NO, being on the west end, what type of weather would our area (Lafayette, La) get, if any?

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 28 2005 07:06 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/IR4/20.jpg

6:15GMT sat is out The only thing i can say is... wow
I was reading the WWL boards, and there are people (I don't know how much of it is bravado, but saying how they'll ride it out no matter what, and just drive, a few miles away to avoid the worst of the winds....

There's also a debate if the Mandatory evac orders were given or not. The front page of WWL doesn't say yet, and evidently no one local has made the announcement, they've only heard on the weather channel.

I hope people get out anyway, it's not a time to dither around, even if the storm misses you, the term better safe than sorry applies to this storm, perhaps moreso than most.

-Mark

Clark

(Meteorologist)

Sun Aug 28 2005 07:07 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

In Lafayette, being on the west side of the storm would result in greatly reduced -- but non-negligible -- impacts from the storm. Largely, rain and gusty winds would be the primary impacts felt from the storm, as the hurricane force winds would likely not be felt in that area.

The track can change at this point, bringing it further west, but right now most of the guidance is clustered near New Orleans. Stay appraised of the situation and be ready to take precautions, just in case the guidance changes and it appears that the storm may go a bit further west. Better safe than sorry, I feel, but not going overboard.

I'm heading out for the night, but there will be others around to help take you into the morning hours. Have a good night everyone, and stay safe.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 07:08 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

Here is a link showing the sat image of Camille (scroll down a little bit).

http://www.geocities.com/hurricanene/hurricanecamille.htm

Compare this to current sat imagry of Katrina (even though we're on the overnight blackout compare to the most recent visual image from 10:45p CDT (3:45 UTC):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg

JustMe

(Weather Guru)

Sun Aug 28 2005 07:18 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

I was listening to the station posted here and they siad they do not have any mandatory evacuations at this time for NO...
I am not sure they could. They were also discussing where to put all the people that had no way to get out.
It could really be ugly if NO gets a direct hit.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 07:23 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

Buoy 42003 stopped reporting a couple of hours ago...wave height at that time was 35 feet, wind speed sustained 50kts gusting 64kts out of the ESE, as Katrina passes to the south (if I remember it correctly, about 180mi to the south).

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 28 2005 07:24 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

They leaked it earlier today that the Superdome would be used in a last resort/ worst case scenario.
I believe they did the same thing last year for Ivan and for Georges in 1998.

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 28 2005 07:34 AM

Thought Update

The Top line...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 25 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

HEAVY RAINS FROM KATRINA SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST SUNDAY EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.
..ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA.
THE HURRICANE IS STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...AND 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/280610.shtml
this would be the bottom line.

From the for what it's worth department.
8/16/1969 Camille 7 PM CDT Bulletin
25.0N / 86.9W 150mph winds
from the archives.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 07:36 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

Well, looking at the 615Z and 645Z images...a couple of observations.

The whiteness of the clouds around the core shows how intense the storm has become (the cold cloud tops). The convection is symmetrical and deep and covers the entire core.

The large eye will have some ability to contract and I may be wrong about this but doesn't that lower the pressure and will result in increase in windspeed.

Because the storm is larger the radius of powerful winds will be larger.

Now the storm, yes, looks as good as Emily did the day she skirted the south coast of Cuba (it is considerably larger as well)

BTfromAZ

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Aug 28 2005 07:39 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

Here's a link for coastal buoys off south Louisiana: http://seaboard.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/WestGulf_inset.shtml

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 07:39 AM

Re: Thought Update

Yeah that's kind of what got me thinking to post those two sat pics earlier. Same position almost on the nose, same windspeed almost on the nose (for all we know now Katrina could be up to 150mph right now). Definitely very deja vu.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 07:41 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

Regarding links to buoys:

There's only the one (42001-- and that is not going to be that close to the storm), because 42041 is no longer in service.

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 28 2005 07:44 AM

Lafayette, New Iberia and Acadiana

LisaMaria. On the predicted course you will get rain and wind. I'm not sure on the amount of rain or the wind speeds.
You are roughly I-10 exit 100. So you should be about 140 miles east of the I10/ I12 split.
Here's 2 links for your local weather.
Slidell NWS.
http://www.srh.weather.gov/lix/

Lake Charles NWS
http://www.srh.weather.gov/lch/

Southern Region NWS (point and click map)
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/

heynow

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Aug 28 2005 07:55 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

No where to go other than the Superdome. How scary.

mojorox

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Aug 28 2005 07:58 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

I was listening to the station on the previous link and they stated that the superdome would only be used for those with medical needs and they were going to be triaging.....

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 28 2005 08:01 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

Margie. I just noticed why there is so much similarity in the Camille/ Katrina photos.
The Camille photo was taken on 8/16/1969 at 1710Z or 1210 PM CDT.
At that time Camille was at: 24.5N/ 86.0W 115mph
http://www.geocities.com/hurricanene/hurricanecamille.htm

Katrina, yesterday 2 PM CDT, was at : 24.5N/ 85.4W 115mph
http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goeseast/hurricane/color/0508280740.jpg

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 28 2005 08:02 AM

Attachment

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

The large eye looks very much like Isabel of 2003 season when it was probably a Cat 5. I attached a picture

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 28 2005 08:07 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

As pointed out in the chat room (not many people there now, but it's something to keep in mind when things get hopping tomorrow, check it out, there are people there, and they're all live and in real time!) the eye is still elliptical, and large... how much worse can it get if the eye gets circular and shrinks down to size.... any idea on how the wind speed increases as the eye diameter shrinks?

-Mark

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 28 2005 08:09 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

I might be wrong, but a large eye like that is usually associated w/ very intense hurricanes. You dont see it in the atlantic basin very often...more often in Typhoons

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 08:16 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

That is something.

I don't know what to say anymore now that the other shoe has finally dropped. My goosebumps have goosebumps.

Except, maybe: I just noted that the storm is about to hit another NHC forecast point right on the money again.

Steve

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 08:17 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

I think you're right nut. I saw a thread elsewhere on annular hurricanes which are a special breed. I didn't have much time to read the details with all that was going on so if this is off, sorry.

Steve

I don't have a problem with it. But You should be packing...My thoughts.
One of your Northshore neighbors has evacuated since the last Advisory.~danielw

Steve

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 08:21 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

Here's an excerpt:

The hardest thing to explain is when hurricanes become Annular.Very few hurricanes can reach this as Atmospheric condtions need to be nearly perfect,a good idea to see wether this is the case is wether the outflow is impressive right the way around the hurricane,which was infact the case in Isabel.Annular hurricanes are rare,however they tend to be very powerful in nature and the strongest hurricanes tend to be Annular in nature.Because of how hard it is to attain its very rare that a hurricane can become annular for more then 12hrs simply because the need for perfect enviormental condtions.

http://www.net-weather.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=19418

Steve

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 08:22 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

Steve what in the sam hill are you doing?

Why aren't you sleeping so that you can be behind the wheel in a couple of hours? Come to think of it, why aren't you behind the wheel right now while traffic is light? You know, I knit while driving, and I'll be real happy if you tell me that you're driving out of town right now with a laptop on your lap and a wireless connection to your cell phone on the other seat.

You aren't like that guy in The Perfect Storm that just has to bring that boat load of fish home are ya?

Look how well this thing has been tracking to all the forecast points. You can't want to be there when Katrina comes to town?

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 28 2005 08:28 AM

Mobile AL Hurricane Local Statement

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI NEED TO MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR THE POTENTIAL LANDFALL OF A
MAJOR HURRICANE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA OR
MISSISSIPPI COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WELL EAST OF THE STORM CENTER...ALONG
WITH MODERATE TO HIGH STORM SURGE ALONG THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS.

ANY EVACUATION DECISIONS FOR COASTAL ALABAMA AND FLORIDA ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MADE ON SUNDAY. RECOMMENDED AND MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS ARE
IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES.

BASED ON
THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK...A STORM TIDE OF 10 TO 15 FEET IS EXPECTED
ALONG COASTAL MOBILE COUNTY AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF MOBILE BAY. A
STORM TIDE OF 8 TO 10 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL BALDWIN COUNTY.
THESE TIDE HEIGHT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION
ALONG PORTIONS OF DAUPHIN ISLAND AND FORT MORGAN PENINSULA. ALSO...A
STORM TIDE OF 5 TO 7 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHWEST
FLORIDA COASTLINE. MINOR STREET FLOODING WAS ALREADY REPORTED ALONG
NAVARRE BEACH EARLY THIS MORNING.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS84-KMOB.shtml

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 28 2005 08:29 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/about_us/meet_us//roger_pielke//camille/report.html

Camille (I hate even comparing this storm to it, but...) had an eye diameter of 12 miles at landfall. I'm sure there are plenty of contra examples, but it was something I remember as being noted about it.... You could be right though, I'm sure the mets will chime in, (or move the post someplace out of the way of everyone trying to keep caught up on the storm

-Mark

I had forgotten about his site. Excellant site. And I hate to use the Camille comparison also.
It's just so uncommon, rare to have the stats this close together. Downright scary too!~danielw

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 28 2005 08:35 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

LOL...I was just reading that and was going to post it...but more seriously, are you convinced now you gotta get out!!!

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 08:42 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

Quote:

I might be wrong, but a large eye like that is usually associated w/ very intense hurricanes. You dont see it in the atlantic basin very often...more often in Typhoons

Starting with about the 2am sat images, it looks very much like a Cat 5. Awaiting the 4am advis and discussion and the next recon with baited breath.

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 28 2005 08:43 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

I read that whole section on annular hurricanes...funny how I picked Isabel as a look alike storm. It was an annular hurricane as well and is the one they use as an example.

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 28 2005 08:53 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 87.4W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 86.8W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 26.3N 88.4W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 125SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 28.0N 89.4W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 125SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 30.0N 89.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 125SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 32.3N 89.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT2+shtml/280840.shtml

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 08:54 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

I think they kept it at a Cat 4 because they have no new recon yet.

I think when recon goes in, if they find Cat 5, there will be a special update.

Paulf

(Registered User)

Sun Aug 28 2005 08:57 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

Anyone have a link to sea tempretures in front of Katrina?
Thanks.

http://www.coolwx.com
~danielw

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 28 2005 08:59 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

I don't look for any CAT changes for a while. Until at least the 11 AM Advisory.

Todd Caldwell

(Registered User)

Sun Aug 28 2005 09:07 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

Good evening . . . morning.

I Couldn't sleep so I put together a track of Katrina through the 4 AM update. The last coordinates are almost identical to the first future forcast point based on the latest projected path. I added buoy information so that you may monitor individual stations as the system passes closer to the coastal waters. This is not looking good for the 'Big Easy'. I will update as information comes available.
http://i23.photobucket.com/albums/b358/targator/Katrina2.jpg

Buoy Maps

I hate to undo your first post. But that image was upsetting the table something awful. If you would resize it to 500 by 500 pixels it might work.~danielw

Todd Caldwell

(Registered User)

Sun Aug 28 2005 09:19 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

Sorry about that. If this is still too large I can reduce by a half.
http://i23.photobucket.com/albums/b358/targator/Katrina2.jpg

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 09:21 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

You can just start to see the littlest bit of clouds on NO long range radar.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.klix.shtml

I think you have been looking at the monitor too long. I've never seen clouds on radar....sorry. ~danielw

You're right I did say clouds. Precip.

There was a 0300Z fllght...when will that data be coming in?

jaxmike

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Aug 28 2005 09:37 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

Quote:

Anyone have a link to sea tempretures in front of Katrina?
Thanks.

http://www.coolwx.com
~danielw

They are very warm. About 90 degrees or so, a very bad sign.

I don't have a link, but I think it was in the Discussion on the NHC site or in Clark's blog.

Daytonaman

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Aug 28 2005 09:43 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

Here is a good animated satellite view of North America that has a topographical look to it...
Real-Time U.S. Composite Satellite Animation
Godspeed to all in this monster's path.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 09:53 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

I didn't have that one bookmarked; thanks.

Now you can really see the expansion of the windfield as Katrina grows in the last 4 frames (0745Z to 0915Z), much better than in the floater.

DebbiePSL

(Weather Guru)

Sun Aug 28 2005 09:56 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

just heard 150 mph

this does not look good at all

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 10:02 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

"just heard 150 mph"

The recon is in. 915mb! temp diff up to 12 deg.

Daniel I know you said not until 11am, but you have to admit I almost called it; this is so very close. I thought the sat image definitely read explosive deepening and had the Cat 5 signature. Well it is a strong Cat 4, with pressure in Cat 5 range, and this along with the expanding windfield at the same time. Very impressive and if this deepening phase is not over then winds will catch up.

This pass was NW to SE. If there is another pass through the NE quad then we could see higher windspeeds.

OK NHC did just put out a special update to say Cat 4 gained strength and winds almost to 150mph. So it looks like that was the max flt wind for that recon or they would have waited.

Edit -- sat images show she is still growing. I don't know what to make of this except that there is just so much energy out there in the warm water that in addition to the intensification there is enough for the windfield to expand as well without impacting the intensification too much. Any thoughts on this?

(Weather Guru)

Sun Aug 28 2005 10:10 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

Clark's post and what the water vapor shows is quite alarming to all of so la. That trough just doesn't look like enough to move her at this point until landfall weakens her. Waking up to a monster this morning. Models are very tight to landfall.

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 28 2005 10:19 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

I'll repost some of what I put up earlier.

If you are in a Hurricane Warning area, and a voluntary or mandatory Evacuation is put in place.
PLEASE LEAVE!!
This storm will probably have it's name retired.
Don't be One of the Fatalities or injuries that Katrina caused.

At this time I-20 frrom Jackson,MS to the West has very little traffic on it.
I-55 North from the Northshore Area was moving good around 3 hours ago.

Turn your refrigerator down...unplug everything and Leave as soon as you can.
You may not have another chance to Leave. Thanks.

Marianne

(Registered User)

Sun Aug 28 2005 10:23 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

Quote:

Anyone have a link to sea tempretures in front of Katrina?
Thanks.

The Wave-Current -Surge Information System for Coastal Louisiana will be interesting to watch...

Y'all take care!

StormKrone

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Aug 28 2005 10:23 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

Quote:

"just heard 150 mph"

The recon is in. 915mb! temp diff up to 12 deg.

I just saw the same... what a thing to wake up to...

No place is 'good' for a monster like this, but NO has to be one of the worst... if not THE worst place...

My heartfelt prayers to all in her path.... Remember, things can be replaced... lives cannot...

turkeyman

(Registered User)

Sun Aug 28 2005 10:28 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

Believe me, it doesn't look good. We're about 40 mi. north of New Orleans, on that "projected path" line and have been reading this forum and staying close to all the news' reports that we can. My next door neighbor works for NWS and took his sleeping bag to work yesterday.

They're talking about a 20-25 foot storm surge on Lake Pontchatrain, with another 20-25 feet waves on top of that. Then you add the horrendous winds. I well remember Camille in '69, and for some reason, have the same inclinations with this storm. We'll be reading and listening today. Keep up the good work.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 10:31 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

" "just heard 150 mph"

The recon is in. 915mb! temp diff up to 12 deg.

I just saw the same... what a thing to wake up to...

No place is 'good' for a monster like this, but NO has to be one of the worst... if not THE worst place...

My heartfelt prayers to all in her path.... Remember, things can be replaced... lives cannot..." "

I just woke up. HOLY ****! Looking at the satellite, 150 mph!?!? Worst case scenario becoming a reality.

berserkr

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Aug 28 2005 10:32 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

Quote:

Here is a good animated satellite view of North America that has a topographical look to it...
Real-Time U.S. Composite Satellite Animation

yeah those radar loops from the Space Science Engineering Center at wisc.edu are kickass... here is a Katrina closeup view of the same type of map:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/visir/atlantic/visirjava2.html

What I like about it is that it automatically switches from visible satellite to water vapor after sunset, then back to visible when the sun comes up. Nice stuff... by far the highest quality satellite loops I have seen. Had those sites bookmarked since Hurricane Isabel in 2003.

BTW, as of this moment (6:35am EST), there IS NO mandatory evacuation order for New Orleans . This is coming directly from the mayor of N.O. on live TV (WWLTV) just 5 minutes ago. He said he may issue a mandatory evacuation order later today, but as of this moment there is none.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 10:33 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

Wow...what a horrible thing to wake up to...though clear over here in Pcola, I am not chancing this one..I'll be boarding up this morning ...tides are water levels are already above normal, and I suspect the impact from this will be well to the east ..unfortunately, that DAY may have finally come for the NO area, and I am sure alot of people in MS are having very bad memories from Camille revisit

Multi-Decadal Signal

(Weather Guru)

Sun Aug 28 2005 10:38 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast *DELETED* *DELETED*

Post deleted by the ongoing active Atlantic multi-decadal signal

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 10:42 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

Quote:

People are very resistant to evacuation orders and don't seem to value their lives as much as their possessions, they fear looters while they're away, or just the expense and inconvenience of leaving town for higher ground.

Not being an alarmist or crying wolf and certainly NOT relishing the prospect of seeing 500 or 5,000 or 50,000 souls swept away. I fear the loss of many more than on 9/11 plus this damn war + ???. I fly the storm flags upside down because of what I see as a very real chance of an horrific disaster.

One and only one word can describe what is impending for the greater N.O. area: doom.

is there ANYTHING that could cause Katrina to weaken? NOT Yet~danielw

Just saw the LIVE shot of I-10 leaving N.O. on the Weather Channel...

Good bye, New Orleans. Edit: If things do not change for the positive and this thing does what I think it will do.... will New Orleans be rebuilt? It could take a LONG time to pump the water out.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 10:45 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

1) thanks for that additional sat image. I noticed that there were 2 addl images since the recon with the (extrap) 915mb reading. To me, it looks like the central circ got even cleaner and stronger in that additional hour.

2) Unbelieveable about the NO evac. Right now I estimate weather conditions will deteriorate starting around 3 or 4 pm. This is because she has increased in size and because she's moving faster. How long does he think he can wait before deciding people HAVE to leave? I guess there isn't anyone to tell him it should have been about two days ago.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 10:49 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

Quote:

2) Unbelieveable about the evac. Right now I estimate weather conditions will deteriorate starting around 3 or 4 pm. This is because she has increased in size and because she's moving faster. How long does he think he can wait before deciding people HAVE to leave? I guess there isnt' anyone to tell him it should have been about two days ago.

There were several people HERE to tell him... but that's not important right now. I'm sure that there will be time after the storm to evaluate the decisions made at ground zero - time for others to evaluate the decisions, I mean, so that, God forbid, we get another super storm in the forseeable future, things are done differently.

Having said that, what really could be done differently? By the time N.O. had any clue what they were in for... it was too late to evacuate everyone, I honestly believe.

Edit:: SHIPS models now indicate 162 mph in 24 hours. BAMM updated to project landfall west of the city.

Edot 2" Weather channel just said Katrina may even get better organized than this - I think that is what she said. You don't GET any better organized than this. You only get stronger - but the organization doesn't really get much better than "perfect storm", does it?

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 10:53 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

Local weather here in Pcola says that if Katrina follows its projected track, we will have 70 plus mph winds here in Pensacola..thats incredible being 175 miles away...I hope S Mississippi and Bama are awake

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 10:53 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

Don't forget how Ivan looked.... Very similar and the same sized eye.........

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2004/images/ivan091504-2015z2.jpg

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 10:57 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

Quote:

Don't forget how Ivan looked.... Very similar and the same sized eye.........

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2004/images/ivan091504-2015z2.jpg

Ivan was doomed by cooler water from earlier storms (I think), and also from shear. I see neither in Katrina's path.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 10:59 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

I was talking about earlier in Ivan's period but Ivan was a nightmare here. Katrina will be worse and that is hard to imagine.

RedingtonBeachGuy

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 28 2005 11:13 AM

Forum Rules

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Before you post: Before posting, please ask yourself the following question: "Am I making a post which is informative, or interesting or adds to thoughtful discussion on any level? If is a reply, does it offer any significant advice or help contribute to the conversation in any fashion?" If you can answer "yes" to this, then please post. If you cannot, then refrain from posting.

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stormchazer

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 11:20 AM

Re: Forum Rules

Foxnews now calling Katrina Cat 5 storm according to NHC.

Sorry for low content.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 11:21 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

Quote:

Local weather here in Pcola says that if Katrina follows its projected track, we will have 70 plus mph winds here in Pensacola..thats incredible being 175 miles away...I hope S Mississippi and Bama are awake

This could be nothing, but Katrina is just a hair east of the last NHC forecast point. It could mean nothing, as she is a very large storm, but then again, as Katrina is currently curving, it could translate to 20 or 30 miles at landfall. It'll be real intersesting to see if there are any shifts east to the track at the 10am. This would mostly affect MS Gulf Coast. Such a track shift would spare NO the worst but would be similar to a Camille situation for MS.

Take this with a grain of salt. It's a valid observation and a conculsion, but I know this is a situation that is highly charged and am not trying to juice it up any further.

If you are on the MS Gulf Coast then check the 10am for this possibility.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 11:25 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

I also heard on TWC that winds are now 160. Incredible strengthening period is apparently in full bloom. How strong could Katrina conceivably get? Looking at the NHC advisories on Camille last night, the estimated winds at that time were 190 (they were actually 200+ but no one could measure winds that strong). It's speculation - but Katrina is now within 5 mph of Andrew's strength - could it get significantly stronger? It would be nearly unprecidented, except for Camille.

Multi-Decadal Signal

(Weather Guru)

Sun Aug 28 2005 11:26 AM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

There was a URL posted here, somewhere, for a double page spread in a NO newspaper which examined the very possibilities which we are facing now. Unfortunately, I can't seem to find it. I saw it in the last day or so. It might have been from the paper's archive and not a current article.

The article was most informative should it be found again. Post it if found, please.

recmod

(Weather Guru)

Sun Aug 28 2005 11:27 AM

CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

068
WTNT62 KNHC 281117
TCUAT2
HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
615 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...KATRINA NOW A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE WITH 160 MPH WINDS...

...AT ABOUT 605 AM CDT... 1105Z... AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN HURRICANE KATRINA
HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 160 MPH. KATRINA IS NOW AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE
SCALE.

FORECASTER KNABB

RedingtonBeachGuy

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 28 2005 11:37 AM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

Here is a live TV feed from New Orleans if it interests anyone:

*requires a Windows Media player*

mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv

Latest view of Katrina:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/storm/archive/javawv2.html

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 11:37 AM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

Quote:

...KATRINA NOW A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE WITH 160 MPH WINDS...

I had wondered after that last recon...it was NW to SE, max fl winds 144kt, and I thought where are the numbers for the NE quad? With 915mb and 12 deg temp diff, that was the only thing missing for Cat 5 status.

Because so much is riding on this, I think NHC was waiting for more data to see if it was transient or if it was solid, to make the call.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 11:45 AM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

Quote:

Because so much is riding on this, I think NHC was waiting for more data to see if it was transient or if it was solid, to make the call.

Probably - the words Cat 5 have a tendency to cause mass hysteria. With a pressure now down to 910, though... there is no doubt. The only question is where specifically she'll end up and how much strong she will get. A few miles east or west will mean a lot in terms of where the destruction occurs - not if it occurs but just where.

It appears to be gradually turning - weather channel has a plot where they show the line, and it's definately right of the previous track - headed for the big easy or slightly east.

EDIT: With a pressure of 910, if my memory is correct, Katrina is now the 3rd strongest hurricane on record - only Camille (908?) and Gilbert (897?) had lower pressures. I'm using my memory so this may not be the case.

ralphfl

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 28 2005 11:45 AM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

Good morning before i go out i wanted to chime in and say my prayers are with whoever this storms hits but looking at the discussion at 5am it shows weaking at landfall.As i said the other day shear is forcasted in the area so we can hope and pray that it will be more then what they are saying and drop at leasy back to a 3 which is devastating also.They have it droping back to a 4 only so with this speed going faster today now i think they may even more it more west the track if the speed holds and wnw track keeps up for the day.

Ill ptay today that the shear gets stronger so before landfall we can pray it will lessen some.

This looks to be going west of N.O when it hits with the speed and the motion unless it gets going due north very soon today.

recmod

(Weather Guru)

Sun Aug 28 2005 11:47 AM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

Katrina continues to strengthen and the central pressure is down to 910mb!!!!!!!!! Here's the latest vortex data:

000
URNT12 KNHC 281120
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 28/11:04:10Z
B. 25 deg 39 min N
087 deg 32 min W
C. 700 mb 2310 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 141 deg 153 kt
G. 046 deg 018 nm
H. 910 mb
I. 10 C/ 3056 m
J. 25 C/ 3057 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C25
N. 12345/ 7
O. 1 / 1 nm
P. AF302 1712A KATRINA OB 10
MAX FL WIND 153 KT NE QUAD 10:58:50 Z

--Lou

WhitherWeather

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Aug 28 2005 11:47 AM

MB down to 910

Pressure has just been reported as having dropped to 910. This is Camille levels--and Katrina is bigger.

WitherWeather

recmod

(Weather Guru)

Sun Aug 28 2005 11:52 AM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

Quote:

EDIT: With a pressure of 910, if my memory is correct, Katrina is now the 3rd strongest hurricane on record - only Camille (908?) and Gilbert (897?) had lower pressures. I'm using my memory so this may not be the case.

1980's Hurricane Allen peaked at 899mb

--Lou

DebbiePSL

(Weather Guru)

Sun Aug 28 2005 11:53 AM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

I believe the Florida Keys hurricane was 892 mb not real sure but seems like I heard that mentioned 1) Florida Keys Cane 2) Camille 3)Andrew

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 11:58 AM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

Just noticed the GFDL and UKMET models turn Katrina a little NE before landfall and turns it to the AL/MS line. Could that possibly happen? I know Ivan turned a bit NE before landfall. This thing freaks me out. This is like Andrew but like triple the size!

908mb! Isn't that what Camille was??

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:01 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

910 millibars....crap...the last vortext message read 915. This is an absolutely horrific situation. There's no either way I can put it. There isn't going to be much left of New Orleans after this. Also, points east such as the coasts of Miss. and Alabama are also going to be severely impacted.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:02 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

Hahaha did you see the time on that recon. Just before the 615am advis. That's what they were waiting, on since the earlier recon data, before making it official.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:02 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

Gilbert at 888 was the strongest on record.

Then the Labor Day Cane at 892.

Then Allen at 899.

(Weather Guru)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:02 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

not seeing that, where is the url for it? the last models I saw continue to contradict each other as to ne or just n once landfall. That trough will either impact later today or it won't until it hits land and just has some westerlies impact.

The mayor gets an "F" on this one. Mandatory evac should have been much sooner. Who waits for a 5 to evac a city of 2 mill?

WhitherWeather

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:03 PM

Dropped to 908 MB

Sorry for the short content but it has now, rapidly, dropped to 908 MB.

WitherWeather

Domino

(Weather Guru)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:03 PM

908 MB

I am watching the live feed from WWL 4 and they are now reporting 908mb. Strange being able to watch this live from Manila...

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:03 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

Those are pressures at landfall . Many hurricanes have had low pressures out at sea.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:04 PM

Re: 908 MB

Yeah the recon data for 908mb has already been posted automatically to this site - look in the upper LH corner.

kissy

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:06 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

Good morning all! Well down here in good old Pascagoula MS they have ordered a voluntary evacuation but not mandatory. Is there any possibility this thing would turn more east? Just curious what everyones thoughts were. Looks like also since it is a cat 5 we may be leaving. Have to board up the house and dh has to go and do something at the casino. (he works there).
Anyway, just want to say that this is a great site and I have gotten so much information! Thanks everyone!

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:07 PM

Re: 908 MB

Quote:

I am watching the live feed from WWL 4 and they are now reporting 908mb. Strange being able to watch this live from Manila...

Absolutely shocking...the pressures in this storm are dropping like an absolute rock.

But...looking at those Gulf water temps...I actually had a very bad feeling about this earlier this year. Hurricanes are here, in part at least, to balance temperatures by transporting heat in the tropical regions to the temperate regions. And Katrina will do a good job of it, at the cost of the northern Gulf Coast.

(Weather Guru)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:08 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

Jim Cantore on TWC is casting doom all over the place. Boy he is serious this morning. He is warning people up to TN. I have not heard a report that turns ne or E as that trough has not impacted at all. You can see some good sats that show this at

http://www.geocities.com/tropicwx/

LI Phil

(User)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:09 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

Good morning all. remotely accessing the site as i am not a home, but will be later today...woke up this morning to a CAT V ...this is not good

i won't state anything obvious like anyone in her path had better be on their way out of here, but it is now more important than ever, for the future bullseye, to keep a keen eye on her track...100 miles either side will be impacted very strongly regardless of eventually landfall, and conditions on the coast will begin deteriorating very rapidly...

in past years we all talked about how CAT V's can sort of "create their own weather" and thus become less and less affected by climatology...while i don't believe this is necessarily true, huge monsters like this are still pretty rare so we don't exactly have all that much data to go upon...all i can see is be prepared for pretty much anything...

buckle up...again

errorcone

(Registered User)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:11 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

Quote:

Just noticed the GFDL and UKMET models turn Katrina a little NE before landfall and turns it to the AL/MS line. Could that possibly happen? I know Ivan turned a bit NE before landfall. This thing freaks me out. This is like Andrew but like triple the size!

908mb! Isn't that what Camille was??

This thing should freak you out. if you're in Pensacola.

There's been so much focus on NO and Biloxi. Pensacola is basically in the error cone. You should be focusing on that. If this thing hits say 15 miles W of Pensacola you don't need me to tell you how bad it could be.

If I were in Pensacola I would probably be boarded up and leaving today. But that's just me. I'd rather err on the side of living and safe as opposed to focusing on the line that we all know better then to focus on.

Disaster Master

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:11 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

Wow. I went to sleep @ 2am. eastern. Look what i missed.As of now she's the 3rd lowest pressure on record. Mandatory Evacs @ 9:30am central time. PLEASE people EVACUATE.

FYI : As an Insurance Adjuster of 12 years i can tell you this.... Mandatory Evac. By Federal or Local Government triggersa what is called A.L.E. Additional Living Expenses. This will take care of most of the money you put out during your Evacuation. This coverage applies even if there is no damage to your home during the storm. This coverage will pay you back any moneys you spend beyond your normal routine.
It will pay for you hotel room wether its the Red Roof Inn, or the Ritz. There will be 50 a day perdiem for food with 20.00 per day extra per child. This is one of the most powerful storms ever in the gulf . With honors to Camille. Do not let money keep you from Evacuating, thats what pawn shops are for people. Your life and the lifes of your family are more important than any home you own or anything in it.

Sorry for being dramatic. I havent had coffee yet. Its brewing Cheers!!

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:11 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

Agree about the inland impacts, Phil. This storm is much larger than Andrew, but it could be nearly as strong at landfall (possibly, I say). But it could sustain itself well inland...we could see hurricane force winds all the way up to northern MS and AL. Inland flooding will also be a major concern.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:12 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

I would guess Camille went <900mb since there was a full day of no data.
0 GMT 8/17/69 25.2N 87.2W 160 905 Category 5 Hurricane
6 GMT 8/17/69 26.0N 87.7W 180 -999 Category 5 Hurricane
12 GMT 8/17/69 27.0N 88.2W 185 -999 Category 5 Hurricane
18 GMT 8/17/69 28.3N 88.7W 190 -999 Category 5 Hurricane
0 GMT 8/18/69 29.4N 89.1W 190 909 Category 5 Hurricane

Keys was 892mb
0 GMT 9/ 3/35 24.5N 80.1W 160 892 Category 5 Hurricane

KATFIVE

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:12 PM

Re: 908 MB

I hesitate to drop the "c" bomb, but this thing is looking more and more like Camille. She bottomed out at 905 mb and hit 909 mb, although she was a bit smaller than KAT. What we have to concentrate on now is on factors, hopefully, that will ratchet this monster down a bit. Any mods or other hurrigeeks have info about SSTs, wind shears, or dry air ahead of this storm?

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:16 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

Katrina's 908mb pressure is similar to Mitch.
18 GMT 10/26/98 16.9N 83.1W 180mph 905mb Category 5 Hurricane

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:16 PM

Re: 908 MB

Quote:

I hesitate to drop the "c" bomb, but this thing is looking more and more like Camille. She bottomed out at 905 mb and hit 909 mb, although she was a bit smaller than KAT. What we have to concentrate on now is on factors, hopefully, that will ratchet this monster down a bit. Any mods or other hurrigeeks have info about SSTs, wind shears, or dry air ahead of this storm?

Let's not look at any of those. The SST's will remain extremely favorable, shear looks low, and dry air shouldn't have much of an impact.

HOWEVER, the one thing that could knock this down a bit in damage: a landfall during an ERC. That might mean the different between a 155-170 mph cane at landfall and a 140-155 mph landfall. I think the northern central Gulf Coast is in for a really tragic and historical cane. But of those two options I see, I'd rather take the latter.

Jeffmidtown

(Weather Guru)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:18 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

Hello from Atlanta....

Spent most of the night listening to WWL-AM's coverage and they have really done a good job on the coverage and opening up the phones for information...Heck, I even called in to let the evacuees know if they plan on coming to Atlanta, they should instead evacuate to Valdosta, Adel, or Savannah...

Just listening to the forecast they were giving from the NHC at about 5am ET, I just started crying because of the damage this storm could cause and hearing the quote from the police chief saying "we don't have enough body bags if people stay and not evacuate....

If you're in the evacuation zones, even the voluntary...GET OUT NOW AND HEAD WEST TO TEXAS OR EAST TO JACKSONVILLE!!!!

And for those of us who are not in the zones in NoLa, let's all stop and say a prayer that something, anything happens to this storm to guide it away from Downtown NoLa......

Take Care..

Jeff

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:18 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

good morning katrina!!!! first vis looks...............

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/data/rmtcrso/121.jpg

LI Phil

(User)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:19 PM

Re: 908 MB

Kevin...is that isabel in your avatar? it'd be interesting to see that storm juxtaposed with the current katrina...i think katrina is larger...

GLT

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:20 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

Sorry if this post doesn't fit here.

I am looking for a way to DIRECTLY help victims of this monster. I have been very fortunate lately and would like to do something substantial , like buy 4 of 5 generators and take them to the affected area (with gas of course).

The reason I want to help directly is because my neighborhood was destroyed by Charlie (Osteen, FL) and there was no assistance from ANYONE, save the Red Cross who showed up with sandwiches 5 days later.

I understand that a bunch of people with no skills going to the affected area would do more harm than good. I understand you can donate to various orgs. and I probably will. But, I would like to SEE my help benefit a real family.

If mods think it is more appropriate, please PM me with ideas. There will be a PAYPAL donation to this site immediately after this post, because this site helped IMMENSELY with the psychological aftermaths of the storm for me. Maybe we could have a forum to discuss ways to help?

Thanks,

GLT

-- Donations are always welcomed so we can maintain our costs! The Disaster Forum Thread is available for you to post your availability to help.

Thanks!

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:21 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

I was just wondering...exactly how much traffic is there on I-10 eastbound right now? Are there still tons of cars on the road? I hope we don't see some kind of event where we have evacuees being flooded away in their cars.

-- http://www3.dot.state.fl.us/trafficinformation/

Rasvar

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:21 PM

Evac tips

My best advice to anyone evacuating would be to take the path of least resistance and then when in a clearer area, try to shoot east[if in Alabama] or west if in LA/MS. I would avoid taking a chance of evacuating into the path of this system no matter how far north you can get. I would also advise taking your important papers and taking enough clothes and supplies for at least a week.

This storm is going to cause major disuption of all systems possible as far as 100 miles inland. If your area is hit, do not plan on returning for at least 5-7 days. It is safer to stay away during that time. When you do decide to return in this situation, I would advise purchasing extra fuel in large fuel cans and bringing back large bottles of water for your own use. Any area that takes this hit near the coast will find that these services will be disrupted for an extended period of time.

My prayers go to all who are in the path of this monster.

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:23 PM

Re: 908 MB

Quote:

Kevin...is that isabel in your avatar? it'd be interesting to see that storm juxtaposed with the current katrina...i think katrina is larger...

Yes...Katrina would have to be larger than Isabel. Isabel was a very circular hurricane, whereas Katrina seems to be elongated N-S. Isabel's eye was a bit better defined, however.

LI Phil

(User)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:25 PM

eyes

>>> Isabel's eye was a bit better defined, however

and let's hope it stays that way...katrina may have 24 more hours (or more) to change that...

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:28 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

Responding to LI Phil's first post...just took me awhile to get this typed in.

Well the last six hours have seen it just push the dry air away like no big deal. It is definitely "making its own weather."

You sure hit the nail on the head. The track is now the critical thing because the special discussion basically said Cat 4 or 5 at landfall. We don't need to worry about intensity now; we know anyone in its path is basically screwed.

I saw a post that some of the models shifted landfall to the east, some time after I posted about Katrina just missing the last forecast point a hair to the east.

NHC didn't mention the possibility of a track change at 7am, and the rapid intensification was, well, enough news for now. It must be absolutely crazy there right now.

But I think there is a possibility of a track change and they'll know more in a little while. Of course now they're probably not going to go with the public advisory schedule for anything that is not routine; time is so critical that if they know something they're going to let people know right away.

You'd think with all the rapid intensification going on Katrina would be wobbling - if you zoom in on sat, the wobbles are there, but they are small, I guess because this thing is such a symmetrical monster with such inertia. Looking at the sat image, it didn't curve for over three hours (3am to 6am - 1045Z is the last sat image on the loop) -- it's gone straight. It's going straight for the next forecast point, but what are the implications of that? Any small change now has larger implications for landfall.

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:28 PM

Re: eyes

Quote:

>>> Isabel's eye was a bit better defined, however

and let's hope it stays that way...katrina may have 24 more hours (or more) to change that...

Yes...and there may be another round of rapid intensification. This intensification will depend on whether or not we have another ERC. I say that we will, with 15-24 left until landfall. It will be very interesting to see what happens if we have more rapid deepening (following an ERC) before landfall.

toemastergeneral

(Registered User)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:28 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

Quote:

I was just wondering...exactly how much traffic is there on I-10 eastbound right now? Are there still tons of cars on the road? I hope we don't see some kind of event where we have evacuees being flooded away in their cars.

As you reach Pensacola going east on I-10 you are going to hit a bottleneck as you make your way to the Escambia Bay Bridge. They are doing a ton of roadwork abot 5 miles west of the bridge and I would imagine that with this mass exodus it's gonna be bumper to bumper there. One alternative is to take I10 to I-110 (exit 12 towards downtown and Pensacola Beach), go through Gulf Breeze (hwy 98) to the Garcon Point Bridge and re-emerge back onto I-10. It will take you out of your way a little but you will not be sitting in traffic.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:28 PM

Re: eyes

I'm surprised at the increase in forward speed..does anyone know if this was projected..I've also come to the conclusion that my cardiologist runs the models..these right shifts are just enough to keep my pulse up...50 miles east at landfall makes a huge difference here in storm surge

Rasvar

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:28 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

GLT, I would not advise a direct trip like that into the main impact area on your own. The areas are going to be overwhelmed by this system. This situation will be more like post-Andrew Miami. There will be areas of complete chaos. Not only that; but access will probably have to be tightly controlled and they would only allow recognized aid groups in. You won't be allowed in.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:29 PM

Re: eyes

trying to find the report, but i heard its her pressure is down to 908mb.... trying to confirm that now!

-- simply look at the left hand corner of our web page for confirmation.

susieq

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:33 PM

Re: eyes

It's developing that "comma" look. What does that mean?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:34 PM

Re: eyes

Its the Advisory pressure, Storm Hunter.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:36 PM

Re: eyes

Quote:

It's developing that "comma" look. What does that mean?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

I see more of a buzzsaw than a comma. It means... bad news probably. The only hope is for an EWRC at landfall.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:37 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

Good Morning all. We are witnessing history in the making. Perhaps a once in a lifetime storm. On the track, overall good consensus on the models but two globals, 00Z CMC and UKMET, take the center slightly eastward than the NHC path somewhere between Mobile and P'Cola. The 06Z GFS and 00Z Nogaps are real close to NHC's projected path (SE LA). The size of KAT is also amazing - tropical storm winds with a diameter of 350 miles and hurricane force winds with a diameter of 140 miles. Predicted storm surge of 15-25 feet in SE LA and coastal Miss, 10-15 feet for coastal AL, and 6-7 feet for western panhandle. A true monster. Our prayers go out to those in her path.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:37 PM

Re: eyes

Tropical storm winds 185 miles from the center..thats unreal!!! I don't ever remember that big of a wind field.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:37 PM

Re: eyes

yeah i saw that, but i am looking for the recon report to confirm that.... all i have found so far is 910mb

she dropped 5mb in two hrs this morning from what i can tell.... went from 915 - 910....and now 908.... pretty good drop i would say in less than 4hrs

(Weather Guru)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:38 PM

Re: eyes

this storm is taking that ridge and plowing right through. the outflow hits that dry air and just nudges it back. Very bad sign for new orleans. unless that trough digs really deep, that turn is not going to be very noticeable until landfall.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:40 PM

Re: 908 MB

Quote:

HOWEVER, the one thing that could knock this down a bit in damage: a landfall during an ERC.

I thought of that, but last night read somewhere that when they become annular like this they can go for a long time without an ERC. Isabel was annular for 24hrs, and a Cat 5 for 42hrs straight.

What is driving this is the "near perfect" conditions for intensification. They aren't going to change, so it is what it is, right up to landfall. We can hope for an ERC but possibly now the conditions are such that one is very unlikely? Can anyone provide some guidance on this?

Edit -- I suspect a new topic soon - Kat a Cat 5?

Also -- just saw the first daylight visual sat image of this, and WOW. There are no words. Incredible.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:43 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

Thanks for the update Ron..I never have had much faith in the CMC model but the UKMET has done well this year...I think I am going to take a few extra precautions over what I have already done... I hope the UKMET is wrong but "right hooks" scare me on storms to my west

GuppieGrouper

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:44 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

Under the circumstances, I would think that the models would be redundant and misleading. The people who are directly in front of the hurricane for 200 miles inland need to be doing preparations such as gasoline and food supplies. I remember well how the experts did not think that the Central Florida area would be all that affected by Charley and it is still devastated. The flooding rains, episodic tornados and the surprise that land mass did not disrupt Charly like they thought it would. The models are now very misleading and people are grasping at straws for reassurance that they will not be harmed. All in all, model watching is very interesting from 300 or 400 miles away. It will be interesting when the mayhem is over to find out which models performed consistently well in predicting direction and intensity.

Psyber

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:44 PM

Re: 908 MB

Personally I don't see anything in her way to slow her down other than perhaps direct Katrina a bit more back towards NE from it's current W-N/W tract. Water is plenty hot there on its way.

God...908! How low is she going to to go???

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:46 PM

Re: 908 MB

I found an interesting article on the web concerning Hurricane Camille. For those in the path of this storm, a must read.

http://www.geocities.com/hurricanene/hurricanecamille.htm

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:50 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

Margie,
The NHC Special Discussion shows Cat 5, 155mph at landfall 30.0N 89.8W.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:52 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

Quote:

Margie,
The NHC Special Discussion shows Cat 5, 155mph at landfall 30.0N 89.8W.

I know that, because it's been the same for three days.

The discussion also says,

"NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK OR WIND RADII FORECASTS HAVE BEEN MADE."

hurricane expert

(Really Not an Expert)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:53 PM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

90L invest is looking pretty good we are also going to keep a eye on it for the week.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:54 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

Quote:

Margie,
The NHC Special Discussion shows Cat 5, 155mph at landfall 30.0N 89.8W.

155mph is *technically* a Cat 4. 156 is the min for Cat 5. Having said that, Dr. Lyons just indicated it may shift NNE before landfall, shifting the severe damage away from N.O. That's not me guessing - that's an "expert" opinion!

My opinion of Dr. Lyons isn't great - I miss John Hope - but that's what he gets paid for.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:56 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

Quote:

Thanks for the update Ron..I never have had much faith in the CMC model but the UKMET has done well this year...I think I am going to take a few extra precautions over what I have already done... I hope the UKMET is wrong but "right hooks" scare me on storms to my west

P'Cola, I'd prepare for the worst due to the massive size of this storm. You're probably in the Hurricane Force wind field and with surges projected 6-7 feet (perhaps 10 feet near the AL-FL line), this is no storm to fool around with - from earlier posts, I think you're pretty close to the beach and GOM, correct? Among other things, I'm worried about a massive storm surge with KAT. Look, Dennis caused 8 ft of surge in St Marks, and it was a much smaller and weaker storm. You will no doubt be on the strongest, deadliest east side - I know you're fascinated like the rest of us with this freak of nature, but get to higher ground if you're in the tidal flood zone.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:58 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

Dr. Lyons on TWC said that Katrina could push NE before landfall. That would be good for NO but bad for those in MS/AL/FL. UKMET hints that may happen.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:00 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

Can start to see the leading edge of Katrina on NO long-range radar now.

(Weather Analyst)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:01 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

Quote:

Dr. Lyons on TWC said that Katrina could push NE before landfall. That would be good for NO but bad for those in MS/AL/FL. UKMET hints that may happen.

He's doing the right thing even if it isn't going to shift east. Why? Becuase everyone anywhere near should be scared and should be leaving. By purposely saying the storm may shift east, he is making more people realize they could be in the intended path. This is good considering the unpredictability of hurricanes.

-------

An impressive IR and Visible signature this morning. Wow!

Terra

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:02 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

I just wanted everyone to know that my son and I are safe and sound in Shreveport. We stopped at a hotel to use their internet, and I don't know what kind of access I will have with the family I am staying with. I'll try to keep in touch. I just looked at this storm and heard the updates on the drive. I tried to encourage everyone I could to get out, but I wonder if there will be enough time. I had no traffic, but I left at 1:30 AM. I;m guessing most people will leave in the next few hours and the traffic will be horrible. This is going to be bad news whereever it goes....

-- Glad to hear you are safe and sound Terra! Stay safe!

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:02 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

Two computer models (UKMET and another that I can't determine the name of) now put Katrina significantly east of N.O. - one at Biloxi and one at the AL/FL border. Combine that with Dr. Lyons' comments, and it may be time for Mobile/Pensacola residents to run too.

Update: I just overlayed the MSLP over the Visible loop on SSD's website. Katrina is following - right now - between two isobars, but is inching toward the right isobar. Interesting to look at.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:03 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

Thanks Ron..though I am on the Gulf Breze Peninsule..I am on the highest ground here..if you call 27ft high....I think I will put the tracks and models away, and just follow the visible and IR images...but I wanted to hear Dr Lyons reasoning for the NNE turn near landfall, and would that be landfall at the mouth of the Mississippi or farther north..I have see 2 storms hit the Boothville area of LA but by going noth they re-emerge over water in the Mississippi sound for several more hours... I wish he had made that a little clearer

twizted sizter

(Weather Guru)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:09 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

Still no madatory evacs in NO or Biloxi according to TWC..Superdome for special needs/nowhere to go cases...going to be devestating wherever she goes but especially if NO...good to see people deciding on their own to go though...as someone who foolishly stayed for Andrew I can honestly say leaving is the best thing to do.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:10 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

Quote:

Thanks Ron..though I am on the Gulf Breze Peninsule..I am on the highest ground here..if you call 27ft high....I think I will put the tracks and models away, and just follow the visible and IR images...but I wanted to hear Dr Lyons reasoning for the NNE turn near landfall, and would that be landfall at the mouth of the Mississippi or farther north..I have see 2 storms hit the Boothville area of LA but by going noth they re-emerge over water in the Mississippi sound for several more hours... I wish he had made that a little clearer

Look at what Ivan did. That's what he's talking about, I believe. High ground in Gulf Breeze is an oxymoron. You'd be wise to find higher ground. What kind of damage did Ivan do to you?

The models are out the window at this point. Katrina will do what she wants to do, and we will be able to watch it on IR/WV/VIS loops from here on in until power goes out in the areas effected (whereever those will be).

susieq

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:10 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

It looks like, ever so slightly, the dry air is affecting the intensity a bit, at least according to the water vapor loop. Any decrease can only be a help. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:11 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

Quote:

Still no madatory evacs in NO or Biloxi according to TWC..Superdome for special needs/nowhere to go cases...going to be devestating wherever she goes but especially if NO...good to see people deciding on their own to go though...as someone who foolishly stayed for Andrew I can honestly say leaving is the best thing to do.

Will the Superdome survive? What is the elevation at the Superdome? I don't mean to panic people but I personally would not want to be that close to the water.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:18 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

The 06Z GFDL model has shifted ever so slightly to the east with a landfall at Biloxi. There is a glimmer of good news according to this model - it is weakening the storm from 147 kts down to 117 kts as it approaches landfall. I don't know what factors are influencing this projected weakening, perhaps some shear as the projected path curves N-NE from the mouth of the Miss River. P'Cola, this model projects CAT 2 force winds at your location.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation

(Weather Guru)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:19 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

2 models is not enough to start inching east. 2 models in every storm go east or west.

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:20 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

Well what a nice picture to wake up to.I guess we board today.I was ready to ride a 100-115 mph winds done it before in this house. A possible 140-160 I don't think so I see where the models are picking the MS GC again a dreaded NE turn.All I could say is S&%#.The same thing happened in Georges N.O.,N.O. etc.I have not seen a single post by Frank P here or at S2K.I will go by and see him and compare notes in a couple of hrs.

tpratch

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:21 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

The Superdome is 18 feet above sea level and was engineered to handle winds near 200 mph. I'd hate to think that it might get tested.

Evacuation of last resort indeed...

All of our SE LA readers have left already, right? I remember Terra doing a very smart thing and leaving early this AM, but I seem to remember Steve(?) considering staying. I hope he reconsidered. I'm an extraordinarily brave person (read also a touch foolish) and if I were within 100 miles of Ms. Katrina's anticipated landfall, I'd have been boarded and gone early this morning. There's nothing suggesting abatement of this truly massive storm.

What good is the "thrill of a lifetime" if it is what defines your lifespan?

Stay safe people.

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:22 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

Remember Dennis,Ivan and Cindy all went NE at landfallby about 50-75 miles.

TDW

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:22 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

I'm on my way to Church before I board up for the storm. I don't imagine that there will be many students in my Sunday School class, though.

It may be appropriate that we are to discuss Job today. A lot of bad things can happen to good people. Let's hope everyone stays safe.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:23 PM

SHIPS model

173mph by 8PM
174mph by 8AM Monday.
link

I wonder what the other intensity models are showing?

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:26 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

Quote:

Remember Dennis,Ivan and Cindy all went NE at landfallby about 50-75 miles.

I remember, I remember.... unfortunately. Lyons appears to be one of the few experts talking about this possibility. For the people of N.O. this would be a blessing but for the people in AL/FL it would be a death sentence for those who have not prepared because they were told the storm was hitting N.O. EVERYONE - EVERY SINGLE PERSON near the coast from western LA to Apalachicola should be prepared.

(Weather Analyst)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:27 PM

Re: SHIPS model

Quote:

173mph by 8PM
174mph by 8AM Monday.
link

I wonder what the other intensity models are showing?

Uh...wow.

The landfall is expected to be sometime Monday morning, and the ships model (according to your link) is showing Category 5 winds continuing through 8pm Monday, 12 hours or so after landfall. Unreal!

Just a note: Ships is bad at predicting winds after landfall, so take that estimate with a grain of salt.

bn765

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:28 PM

Re: SHIPS model *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

(Weather Guru)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:30 PM

Re: SHIPS model

I think the panic for a large east turn should be over. every met in fla won't be wrong. direct hit and 75 either side is not pensacola. Let's stay the course with nhc and follow the current path not the oh what if path.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:30 PM

No Evacuations?!?!?

That is really odd. I think that somebody is making a bad call in not ordering evacuations for NO. Here we are looking at one of the most dangerous weather features of our time and nobody is ordering evacuations. I know the path is uncertain, but still... I was looking at photos of Camille and from the looks of it, it doesn't look like much of anything within 2 miles of the coast will survive. My thoughts and prayers are with everybody that is in the path of the storm. As for now it looks like the Tampa Bay area has dodged yet another bullet.

Be safe

(Weather Analyst)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:31 PM

Re: SHIPS model

They just posted a 9:14 am vortex message over at NHC (the 8am one was an Air Force plane, so it never showed up):
(my notes in italic)

000
URNT12 KNHC 281314
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 28/12:57:40Z
B. 25 deg 50 min N
087 deg 55 min W
C. 700 mb 2308 m
D. 80 kt
E. 132 deg 073 nm
F. 203 deg 145 kt
G. 118 deg 018 nm
H. 908 mb
I. 10 C/ 3056 m
J. 26 C/ 3056 m
K. 6 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C22 [that's circular 22NM radius]
N. 12345/ 7
O. 1 / 1 nm
P. AF302 1712A KATRINA OB 16
MAX FL WIND 153 KT NE QUAD 10:58:50 Z

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:32 PM

Re: SHIPS model

Quote:

173mph by 8PM
174mph by 8AM Monday.
link

I wonder what the other intensity models are showing?

Intensity models are notoriously inaccurate. It could potentially hit 180-190+, too. I suspect it will not stay cat 5 for 48+ hours though... at least I hope, but Louisiana isn't exactly the Rocky Mountains. Look at what the Everglades did to Katrina - pretty much made her mad and out to seek revenge.

(Weather Guru)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:34 PM

Re: SHIPS model

good point,

winds could last well across ponchatrain into so ms as you point out the Rockies aren't quite evident down here

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:36 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!! *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:38 PM

Re: SHIPS model

From CNN online: one paragraph about the Cat 5 intensity, followed with this second paragraph:

"The storm is expected to make landfall Monday morning in southeastern Louisiana or southwest Mississippi."

Do you think NHC may have let LA and MS know that the track may be shifted to the right a bit?

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:39 PM

Re: SHIPS model

Thats a 175mph on those flight winds.I was here during Camille now it looks like her sister is going to pay someone a visit.

RedingtonBeachGuy

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:39 PM

Forum Rules

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:41 PM

Re: SHIPS model

Margie, regarding your quote, I would guess that CNN is rightfully not focused on the line, but the cone.

Wxwatcher2

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:43 PM

Re: No Evacuations?!?!?

Quote:

That is really odd. I think that somebody is making a bad call in not ordering evacuations for NO. Here we are looking at one of the most dangerous weather features of our time and nobody is ordering evacuations.

They ARE ordering evacuations and people are heading out of town. The sad thing is there is no way to evacuate an entire major city. The smaller towns like Biloxi, MS were still debating mandatory evac's as late as this morning.
I think that even the Emergency Managers don't really understand this storm can and will do.

It's a logistical nightmare. I think that Radio and TV and sites like this one are doing all they can to warn people.

My prayers are for everyone to be safe in and around the Gulf Coast.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:43 PM

Re: Dr Lyons

If I had to guess what Dr Lyons is thinking, I'd say the vigorous trough diving SE thru central TX is gonna perhaps cause a slight, emphasize, slight N-NE turn, probably near the mouth of the Miss River. This is probably what the 06Z GFDL model is picking up on and maybe this will introduce some shear and slightly weaken KAT. Who knows? What I've been saying is anyone from LA to the western panhandle needs to take this seriously, becuz its such a large storm.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellit...amp;duration=10

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:45 PM

Re: SHIPS model

What do you think the odds are that the track might shift East?? 48hrs seems a little stretched for Cat V winds... I would think that it would go under Cat V strength within an hour or two (of course depending on how strong it is when it comes ashore).

Trekman

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:51 PM

Re: CAT 5 160mph!!!!!!!!

Seeing that it went just east of the last forcast point on the wv image, and the angle that it looks like it will hit the next forcast point head on.....does anyone think this is a slight adjustment to the west of the forcast track?

Ed Dunham

(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:51 PM

Administrative Note

The site bandwidth could be severely tested today as the storm approaches the coast, but you can help by not posting the obvious and keeping your posts informative. We need to reduce the number of one-liners so that we can keep the site up and running during this serious event. Your help is appreciated. Some one-liners are ok if they are informative - just try to keep the number of them down.
Thanks,
ED

tpratch

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:56 PM

Re: No Evacuations?!?!?

If Katrina hits NO, it will have no companion in history that I'm aware of.

NO has never been hit by a storm this large - almost nobody has (Camille is rightfully mentioned as an analogy). To anyone focusing only on the forecast track: please do not be so foolish! This storm is HUGE and will cause large swaths of devastation spanning dozens of miles!

Katrina means business, and is large enough to cause problems hundres of miles from her landfall "point". A storm of this size is going to pound cities more than 50 miles from any point listed as landfall, and if that point is in LA, then yes, even folks in the panhandle of Florida need to rush to completion any plans for safety.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but this isn't exactly a storm to ride out or dismiss - she spans hundreds of miles and will continue to deepen for a while. The line between 155 (Cat 4) and 156 (Cat 5) at landfall will make little difference. She's gusting over 180 mph. My car will push 160 and let me tell you - the sheer force of a 180+ mph gust is definitely something that reeks power.

Steeler Fan

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:00 PM

Re: No Evacuations?!?!?

New to posting on this site (although I have been a non-registered user for a while now), but wanted to say that even if there are no official evacuations anyone in Katrina's path that doesn't heed the warning is going to get a close-up of the gates of hell. I experienced Camille from the Tampa area in '69 and it was scary enough long distance. Does anyone remember the news story about the woman who was at a "hurricane party" in her 4th floor apartment and was swept out to sea by the storm surge? She was one of the lucky ones and lived to talk about her experience! Riding this one out is just foolish! If Katrina remains a 5 when making landfall, it will be only the 5th Atlantic Cat 5 to make landfall since record keeping began (and the 4th to hit US soil).

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:01 PM

Re: SHIPS model

No, I don't buy it. Landfall is in LA according to NHC predictions (see below).

And news stories on the web always lead with the new info, then repeat the older paragraphs, appending them.

So that statement referencing MS landfall reflects something different than the current NHC projected path.

This was from 10am Sat NHC discussion:

"THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA IN 48-60 HR."

From the 5pm Sat NHC discussion:

"THE TRACK CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA IN A LITTLE UNDER 48 HR."

From 8am this morning:

"NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK...HAVE BEEN MADE."

twizted sizter

(Weather Guru)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:03 PM

Re: No Evacuations?!?!?

Any of our 'Bama friends on here tune into your local radio/tv or even TWC...just heard they now have evacs for areas there.

Genesis

(Weather Guru)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:03 PM

Track .vs. forecast

Guys and gals, she's RIGHT ON THE FORECAST TRACK.

There were two vortex fixes just north of track, but the trend is right on the line. Last fix was slightly WEST of the forecast track.

Don't fixate on the exact center - with a 30nm diameter eye, being off 30nm won't help you a bit!

Dr. Lyons has a point, BUT that trough is not very vigorous down there. Look at the weather maps and WV loops - the strength in that trough IS lifting out NE, as was forecast. Look at the forecast maps for the next 24 hours; there's a pronounced weakness right north of NO - which is exactly where the NHC has forecast the storm to head.

Whether it jogs east or west of there a bit is not going to be material with a storm of this size and power, and betting on an east - or west - wobble or jog in the path is VERY ill-advised.

I'm expecting near-hurricane-force winds here in Niceville, and a tidal surge of somewhere around 4' in the bay - 6-10' directly on the gulf. Add to that wave impact, which will be considerable for gulf-front exposures.

Please do not be complacent or think that someone's projections of a slight eastward change in track means you're "ok" if you're on the western edge of the envelope! By the same token this storm could be trouble all the way over to Destin - you can bet I'm watching it VERY closely, as that's where we are!

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:04 PM

Re: No Evacuations?!?!?

Quote:

To anyone focusing only on the forecast track: please do not be so foolish! This storm is HUGE and will cause large swaths of devastation spanning dozens of miles!

I know what you mean. Look At Charley. It was powerful, but small, and it did alot of destructi spanning hundreds of miles. Katrina is huge.

Also the mayor of N.O is holding a news conference right now. I caught it on AM radio.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:07 PM

Re: SHIPS model

Margie, I disagree that before 9:30AM the NHC specifically called CNN (and no one else) or that CNN is the only news outlet to find out that the forecast track would shift East. Yes the track may shift East (or even West) but I think you're digging for something that doesn't exist. I stand with my assessment of the CNN quote - they are focused on the cone, not the line.

EDIT: or the Chief Met for CNN is making a call to shift the track slightly East.

2nd EDIT: based on your new post below, that NHC met was on NBC this AM and I think he's giving the cone vs line "be safe" speech.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:08 PM

Re: Forum Rules

Looks like the eye is forming vortices.

This phenomena observed in Isabel.

GuppieGrouper

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:11 PM

Re: No Evacuations?!?!?

To give distance perspective to the east of this storm, as it is now. When Camille hit in 1969, I was living in Marianna Florida which is approximately 138 car miles from Pensacola to the east. We had tropcial storm force winds all night long the night or day she hit. I awoke to large pine tree limbs down, debris everywhere. We may or may not have had a close brush with a tornado. I was a teenager and television weather reporting was not a media focus and not a lot of communication was going on. I do remember that there was some coverage though but it seemed alot more remote in those days. So the moral of this story is that if this remains a CAT 5 at landfall, It will cause problems from the landfall for hundreds of miles in all directions.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:12 PM

Re: SHIPS model

I found the source at another news site. It is a direct quote from someone at NHC, apparently from this morning, so in this context it is not clear if this leads up to an official change in the predicted path:

"Katrina’s landfall could still come in Mississippi and affect Alabama and Florida, but it looked likely to come ashore Monday morning on the southeastern Louisiana coast, said Ed Rappaport, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami."

No, and something's got to be up anyway; she's been moving in a straight line, NW, for some time now.

collegemom

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:15 PM

Re: Forum Rules

You guys amaze me with each passing storm. I read many predictions last night and woke up to see quite a few of them had developed. My thoughts and prayers are with every person who will experience anything to do with this big girl. Stay smart and err on the side of caution.

mbfly

(Weather Guru)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:16 PM

Re: No Evacuations?!?!?

Quote:

Any of our 'Bama friends on here tune into your local radio/tv or even TWC...just heard they now have evacs for areas there.

I'm listening to the local news stations now. No order for evacuation yet. For that matter, Mobile County schools have not even been cancelled !!! I'm sure they will be after the next update.

I think they are trying not to repeat the panic they had here for the last storm that didn't have anywhere near the impact they had hyped it up to be. Personally, I feel they are being too lenient this time and people will try to from flee here at the last minute.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:23 PM

LA - Regional Weather Roundup

Very Interesting. The calm before the storm.
Sunny across most of the state and winds aren't up much yet.
I hope this doesn't lull people into thinking they're safe.
link

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:26 PM

The calm before the storm

Sunny and winds aren't up much yet.
I hope this doesn't fool people into think they are safe.
link

HanKFranK

(User)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:27 PM

countdown

katrina should be ashore in 24-30 hours. right now it's gotten about as strong as i'd reckoned it could.... there is some guidance making it a bit stronger, but i'd say more than half has it a bit weaker at landfall. there are no guarantees, either way... the ssts katrina is moving over can support a stronger hurricane, but by nature category fives don't tend to maintain themselves. of course, a bit weaker than a 140kt hurricane is not much of a favor. now, keep in mind that the fairy godmother can always intervene and knock 20-25kt off if the storm hits at the bottom end of an ERC. hurricanes also rarely maintain cat 5 status for more than a day or two. ivan kept going there, but never stayed very long. katrina will probably not be at category 5 at landfall, like the official says.. but there just isn't much to weaken the storm besides inner-core changes. no considerable shear in the forecast, and subsidence entrainment doesn't look to be a significant factor either. guidance hasn't really shifted.. so a direct hit on NO is quite possible. guidance won't shift significantly to the left.. the ridge-building and weakness don't support that kind of change, so it coming in at biloxi is more likely than, say, houma.
i'll just reiterate what many have already said on here. if you're in southeastern louisiana or coastal mississippi, staying behind could very well be a death sentence. if you're inland in some place like bogalusa or mccomb or laurel, you're still likely to get hurricane force winds... make sure you're in a sturdy structure tomorrow afternoon. significant wind impact will likely be felt as far inland as the starkville/columbus or even tupelo.. east of I-55, up towards northeast mississippi.
with a category 5 a day away from landfall on the central gulf coast, there shouldn't be other news.. but there is a little.
90L will operationally be a depression soon. it is around 15/47 right now moving wnw. the track should take it north of the caribbean, as the weakness left by 97L should draw it up a bit. most models take it up towards bermuda through a ridge weakness. 97L is a displaced low near 22/57 drifting west under heavy shear... trying to break through an upper trough. its convection is displaced well to the east and being drawn poleward.
a new invest will likely be issued by nrl as the last ssd cycle tagged the well-defined wave which left africa late yesterday as 91L. it's already rated 1.0 and starting at a low latitude... numerous models track and develop it, and take it as far as the western atlantic. it won't be nearing the caribbean until late in the week, if it develops.
HF 1427z28august

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:28 PM

Re: No Evacuations?!?!?

I just heard that the entire New Orleans parish is under mandatory evacuation now. According to both the Major of New Orleans and the governor of Louisiana.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:34 PM

Re: No Evacuations?!?!?

Evacuations have begun here in Northwest Florida on Pensacola Beach. Perdido Key and Navarre.... The Gulf has breach hwy399 on Navarre beach already...I think the people in NO were a little late with the last order..

twizted sizter

(Weather Guru)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:35 PM

Re: No Evacuations?!?!?

Better late than never I guess...unreal...I hope the majority of people decided on their own to get out & have taken the necessary provisions to secure their property.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:35 PM

Re: No Evacuations?!?!?

URNT12 KNHC 281431
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 28/14:17:00Z
B. 25 deg 58 min N
088 deg 03 min W
C. 700 mb 2294 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 306 deg 140 kt
G. 221 deg 014 nm
H. 907 mb
I. 12 C/ 3059 m
J. 26 C/ 3048 m
K. 6 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C22
N. 12345/ 7
O. 1 / 1 nm
P. AF302 1712A KATRINA OB 21
MAX FL WIND 166 KTS OUTBOUND NE QUAD 1422Z. PERFECT STADIUM EFFECT AND TEXTBOOK RADAR DEPICTION OF EYEWALL.

Ricreig

(User)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:36 PM

Re: Category 4 Katrina Heads for the Coast

Quote:

I'll repost some of what I put up earlier.

If you are in a Hurricane Warning area, and a voluntary or mandatory Evacuation is put in place.
PLEASE LEAVE!!
This storm will probably have it's name retired.
Don't be One of the Fatalities or injuries that Katrina caused.

At this time I-20 frrom Jackson,MS to the West has very little traffic on it.
I-55 North from the Northshore Area was moving good around 3 hours ago.

Turn your refrigerator down...unplug everything and Leave as soon as you can.
You may not have another chance to Leave. Thanks.

Danny, I know you abhor comparing Katrina to Camille, so I will. I, like you and a few others in this forum, lived through Camille near the point of impact (in NE quadrant eyewall). This storm has all of the markings of Camille's equal in all but one area, the point of projected impact. I did NOT have the opportunity to leave (military) the area, nor the time (warning <12 hrs) but I wish I had been able to. It was a time of terror, unabated terror and destruction I could have never imagined. If Katrina hits anywhere near its projected impact area, Camille may be peanuts in comparison even though Camille likely will still hold an edge in sustained wind speed (and even that is in question given the way Katrina continues to intensify). The entire area from N.O. to BIloxi where I was, has radically changed since I lived there, Many more people will be exposed and much more property to be damaged.

I fear for the lives of the people in the path of Katrina. I have seen total deviastation in the past with Camille, as have you, and I fear this may be worse.

I echo your warning Get the hell out of the warning area!!!

Steve, you may not have another opportunity to see a CAT V storm in your lifetime, but in fact, if you stay, you may not get a chance to see what it is like to see the aftermath of one either.

I haven't posted much this year or on Katrina because the posts have been top-notch from our Mets and forum members, but because relatively few people have actually lived through a CAT V storm as I and danielw have, I feel compelled to tell you, don't learn what it is like from experiencing it first hand, learn from the experience of others that have first hand experience. Heed the advice and don't become a statistic.

Grant

(Registered User)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:36 PM

Re: No Evacuations?!?!?

One has to wonder what the ramifications of a full mandatory evacuation, as well as such a disastrous storm making landfall in the area of such a major city. I've already seen local gas stations here in my area ratcheting up gas prices. I'm not a huge expert on economics, but don't we have several refineries in Louisiana? I remember seeing a lot of them along 10 on the other side of Baton Rouge, but I don't exactly know if there are any in the NO Metro area. I think there is a major port there, as well.

I hope everyone stays safe in this awful storm. One would think witnessing history would be exciting, but this just leaves a pit in my stomach.

Genesis

(Weather Guru)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:39 PM

New MM5 run IN PROCESS - watch as it develops...

Click here and hit REFRESH was required - to 36 hours is complete now. Track appears to be fairly good from what's been plotted over the movement thus far. Error cone appears to just touch Mobile Bay, but an extrapolation from the next fix (due in a few minutes) will likely be right near Daphne.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/KATRINA.track.png

Catmando

(Registered User)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:39 PM

Water Temp

I have a question which may be of interest to others. If a hurricane or tropical depression entered the gulf in the near future, will the waters be cooler because of the size and velicity of Katrina?

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:40 PM

Re: No Evacuations?!?!?

Like everybody on here knows. It's better to be safe than sorry. I would hate to be the person who didn't do anything. The mayor of N.O just said she expects Katrina to breach the levies (sp) and cause catostrophic damage. Apparently they are ordering a city-wide evacuation.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:41 PM

Re: No Evacuations?!?!?

What I feel the recon indicates: The rapid intensification is over. The winds have caught up (for the first time!). Might be continued intensification on a smaller scale for awhile, or status quo.

Sheeper

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:42 PM

Re: No Evacuations?!?!?

better to leave sooner rather than later. Here in Vero Beach we're actually getting a band right now from some of the eastern moisture from Katrina. Torrential rain and some good 20MPH winds. These bands seem to roll thru real quick and I'd expect sun again in 30 minutes or less.

We had the double whammy here last year and I ran Red Cross shelters. The Cat 2/3 double hit was scary enough. I'd beat feet real quick anywhere near a cat 5. I'm brave but not stupid.

I survived:
Jeanne 2004
Frances 2004
911-NYC 2001

LoisCane

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:42 PM

Mandatory Evacs now.. please listen

Remember this is not a barrier island. New Orleans is a bowl..it fills up with water and the water has nowhere to go. So.. don't think you will get lucky with a storm surge not hitting your specific part of town.. everywhere there is a problem.

Listen to evacuation warnings. You have thought on this for years.. this is it.

If it turns sharply before landfall and you don't get a direct hit. Thank God but you will get large amounts of water and bad weather..and that would be a best case scenario. The size is massive and will affect many areas.

I really think watching the loops and radar imagery that she will more likely than not .. not make that turn until she is hitting land. I worry she will turn more NE than current models show (based on current sat imagery and a good gut feeling) and if she does take such a turn.. she will crawl across the whole Gulf Coast east of NOLA and move inland further south than currently forecast. Which would put a lot of people along the Gulf and up through Alabama and Georgia under direct effects of heavy, pounding, flooding rain and strong winds.

Hope I am wrong on that because the feeling right now is she will go further north. That trough is weak and the flow above her is going sharply left to right.

Came on over here to post this because heard from friends online Steve in Metarie has said he would stay. Asking he change his mind and IF he is staying.. do me a favor and do not talk on staying here on a website many people are reading. Don't want any copycats staying somewhere because they have read so and so has decided to ride it out. Do what you feel you must but don't give others ideas. Please.

Stay safe everyone and thanks HankFrank and Clark for excellent discussion.

Bobbi

Clark

(Meteorologist)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:45 PM

Re: No Evacuations?!?!?

Winds are now 175mph, with gusts to 215mph.

Needless to say, this is going to be one for the record books.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:46 PM

Re: Mandatory Evacs now.. please listen

Holy mother of god its up to 175 max sustained winds.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:47 PM

Re: Mandatory Evacs now.. please listen

175 - stronger than Mitch, I believe, now. Pressue of 907.
No change to forecast track, or warnings.

Ricreig

(User)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:47 PM

Re: SHIPS model

Quote:

I found the source at another news site. It is a direct quote from someone at NHC,

"Katrina’s landfall could still come in Mississippi and affect Alabama and Florida, but it looked likely to come ashore Monday morning on the southeastern Louisiana coast, said Ed Rappaport, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami."

I think GuppieGrouper said it well just a bit ago, Katrina can affect places a hundred, maybe much more, miles away from the point of impact. So, if the NO track proves to be accurate, towns in Florida can and will still feel some impact. I believe this is what Ed Rappaport was alluding to, not a radical change of track being implied.

Rasvar

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:47 PM

Re: No Evacuations?!?!?

NO has mandatory evac now. Truthfully, if I lived anywhere from Southern La, Costal MS/AL I would get the heck out of there. You probably have 12 hours of good evac time left. After that, weather starts to get iffy. As far as evac, I would not evac north into Miss or Alabama. NW LA, Texas, Georiga would be te areas I would try to make too. The center of this storm will cause havoc well inland. Best to avoid any evac points that could possibly fall under the center. At this point, grab your papers and a weeks worth of clothes. Taking sleeping materials. If you have to board up, do it NOW. You are almost out of time.

Good luck all.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:48 PM

Re: No Evacuations?!?!?

11am is out

HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA...EVEN
STRONGER...HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...26.0 N... 88.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175mph. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 907 MB.

(Weather Analyst)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:53 PM

Re: No Evacuations?!?!?

10:31 am Vortex Message from NHC (my notes in italic):

000
URNT12 KNHC 281431
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 28/14:17:00Z
B. 25 deg 58 min N
088 deg 03 min W
C. 700 mb 2294 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 306 deg 140 kt
G. 221 deg 014 nm
H. 907 mb
I. 12 C/ 3059 m
J. 26 C/ 3048 m
K. 6 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C22 [that's a 22 NM circular eye]
N. 12345/ 7
O. 1 / 1 nm
P. AF302 1712A KATRINA OB 21
MAX FL WIND 166 KTS OUTBOUND NE QUAD 1422Z. PERFECT STADIUM EFFECT AND TEXTBOOK RADAR DEPICTION OF EYEWALL.

---------------

166 KT flight level winds = about 145-150 KT surface winds. Wow.

--------------

Admins, looks like you're getting saturated here. Just got a Mysql error: too many connections.

Southern4sure

(Weather Guru)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:53 PM

Effects of Katrina

If Katrina land falls in eastern La as predicted, what kind of effect should the people in Pascogoula, MS and Mobile, AL expect?

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:55 PM

Re: No Evacuations?!?!?

I KNOW!!! Sheesh I'm floored. I just finished reading about the SHIPS latest intensity forecast (that was to 175kts!) within the last couple hours and I laughed.

Then there was the recon, and I was trying to calc in my head...so how fast is that at the surface?

But logically it follows: finally the winds have caught up with the pressure drops.

Clark

(Meteorologist)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:55 PM

Re: Effects of Katrina

Coming up with a long post about all of that now....that area can expect tidal flooding & storm surge, high winds, and the potential for tornadoes and heavy rain as the storm makes landfall. Its effects are far-reaching and will not just be felt near where it makes landfall.

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:57 PM

Re: Mandatory Evacs now.. please listen

Steve is really staying in Metairie? He really needs to get the * out of there. As HF said...staying in coastal LA or MS is probably equivalent to a death sentence. But I guess you can't order everyone around...

MikeC

(Admin)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:58 PM

Re: Effects of Katrina

Placed a new thread up, this one was getting corrupted from too many moves.