MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Sep 05 2005 08:39 PM |
Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast
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10:30PM Update
A tropical storm watch is now up from Titusville north to Flagler beach.
4PM Update
Latest recon fix shows TD 16 to be about the same intensity as the 11am initial advisory -- pressure of 1008mb, flight-level (here, near-surface) winds of 27kt. They'll be sampling the storm for some time to come still, so it remains to be seen as to whether or not they find anything stronger.
Some models have it dissapating (which would be nice), but I'm not so sure about that at the moment.
Original Update
Tropical Storm Warnings are now up from Jupiter to Titusville as the 16th Depression of the Season forms off the Coast of Florida. Points further north will likely come later this evening. TD#16 is not moving much, and may be over water for the next few days as it crawls slightly to the north and west.
Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com
It is expected to make landfall in East Central or North Florida as a tropical storm. It is moving very slowly and may take a long time to move westward and northwestward. The Tropical Storm Warnings may be extended further north later today.
The forecast moves the system extremely slowly toward the northwest and north northwest. There is some uncertainty, so it may make landfall anywhere in the rather large cone. Intensity wise, it is likely to hold itself as a Tropical Storm. However, depending on how slow the motion goes the chance of it making minimal hurricane status is there. The National Hurricane Center, however, is holding with Tropical Storm Warnings. We may have windy conditions along the coast for an extended amount of time with the current forecast track, with them gradually increasing.
Hopefully people won't be caught off guard if it stays offshore a bit longer and becomes a minimal hurricane, which is possible, but not likely at the moment. Folks along the east coast of Florida will want to pay attention. The forecast isn't certain and if it strengthens more rapidly than expected we could have Hurricane Watches or Warnings up by tomorrow.
Recon aircraft are going out there this afternoon, and we'll hopefully know more when they do.
Maria is a threat only to shipping interests and will not affect Land.
Nate may affect the island of Bermuda, and folks there will need to pay attention to local sources and alerts as time goes by. Outside of Bermuda, Nate is no threat to land.
More to come soon.
Report conditions from TD#16 in your area In this thread
Event Related Links
Bahamas Weather/Radar
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Jacksonville, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Spaghetti Style model plots from Colorado State University
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Emergency Management:
State of Florida - Florida disaster.org
Brevard County
Flagler County
Indian River County
Volusia County
Other florida counties
Maria
Animated model plots of Maria
Nate
Animated model plots of Nate
Ophelia
Animated model plots of Ophelia
Google Map Plot of Ophelia
Floater Satellite of Ophelia
| cjzydeco |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Sep 05 2005 09:34 PM |
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Wave Off FL Coast
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Today's discussion of the wave off the e. coast of Fl from Melbourne NWS.
Quote:
IR AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A FLARE UP OF CONVECTION OVER THE NW BAHAMAS THIS MORNING BUT THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF MIA. SO FAR...A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS NOT BEEN CLEARLY IDENTIFIED SO THE HURRICANE CENTER HAS NOT UPGRADED THIS TO A DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. ONE COULD FORM IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE 12Z GFDL BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO MIA WHERE IT DISSIPATES IT IN 48 HOURS. SOME BETA ADVECTION MODELS BRING IT NW ACROSS CENT FL AND INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO OR UP THE FL EAST COAST. THE MOTION LOOKS TO BE QUITE SLOW SO WE WILL BE CONTENDING WITH CLOUDS AND MOISTURE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
Sure gave us quite a deluge here in Vero last night and this morning. Has been overcast, raining and gusting all day. How do models do with something this unorganized?
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Mon Sep 05 2005 09:38 PM |
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setting the pace
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what does that title have to do with anything? well, tc 15 has just gone active today in the westpac as well. slow year over there.. not true over on this side of the big blue ball. it's very freaky for the atlantic to be pacing the busiest basin in the world.. which usually has 2 to 3 times more named systems than the atlantic at any given point in the year.
okay, the action:
maria does look sort of like a comet. it has a poleward outflow that's really going strong on the south side, getting dragged in a thousand-mile streak by an upper trough to the east. over the next few days maria should grow a new one extending up into a mid-latitude trough, and sweep cleanly out into the north atlantic.
td 15, future nate, is spinning up out of that mess between bermuda and puerto rico. it may be stronger than the nhc advisory says... will probably deepen more than indicated. i don't think the movement will be quite as pronounced to the west, probably more erratic. if it gets strong enough, it'll potentially fujiwhara-drag the system off florida out to sea.
94L is a classic pattern-induced system. all it really lacks is a cdo.. the pressure will only fall slowly in the area until deep convection forms and concentrates. there's a mini vortex in the low levels pushing in from the northeast... may act to focus the broad, elongated circulation near grand bahama/andros. for potential analogs... mediocre ones... i'll drag up dennis 1981 and jerry 1995. dennis came up out of the south, and got stuck near south florida for a few days in august 1981, before steering northeast/out to sea along the carolinas. if 94L develops enough it can work northward through the ridge... though i don't consider this scenario most likely. more likely it stays fairly weak and gets pushed onto the peninsula a-la jerry 1995. if it goes over land it'll stay weak.. maybe move out into the gulf.. maybe stay over land. factor in that future nate should be close enough to tug on it, and i'd expect a more erratic version of either of the above scenarios. the big threat should be lots of rain... unless something unexpected happens.
for other features.. it's worth noting that some of the models still see an impulse in the gulf that migrates over to texas. doesn't exist right now.. may be something the models are erroneously splitting off of 94L. all the same, eyeball any convection that develops and persists over the gulf.
92L, our old friend, is almost to the islands. it's still got a pronounced turning, just more of a wave than anything else. TWD says there's a low on it... maybe a trough max, not a vortex in the classic sense. no concentration of convection on the axis, still only marginal upper air conditions. storms rarely develop in the central caribbean.. and i don't see it pulling a fast one, so if it's going to do anything it'll probably be further west in a few days, where the flow slows and the upper conditions are forecasted fair.
very strong wave with an associated low passing by the cape verdes. there's enough subsidence to keep it tame for now. as it works further west the waters will get progressively warmer and the air will moisten, so it's really just a matter of maintaining an envelope for a few days, and not getting to close to a shearing trough.
and that's it. no mas. can't fit anything else into the atlantic.
HF 2137z05september
| Hootowl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Sep 05 2005 10:55 PM |
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Re: setting the pace
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Been out of the loop for a couple of days. Family illness stress. Everyone still hanging on though.
Breezy here for the last two days. Real nice out this am - good for yard work. No rain to speak of - just a couple of sprinkles.
Interesting to listen to the local mets when I have time. One says it's gonna rain because the low which will become a TD will come across the state and another that said that it will be a TS and hug the east coast.
Just had to get on and check what may be happening or not.
From what I looked at briefly - it may rain this week! 
Hope so - we have islands in the lake that didn't exist last year. 
My best to all. May they all spin fishies.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 05 2005 11:53 PM |
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busy busy busy
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hey all thanks again for the bday condolences,..of sourse happy bday ryan heres a TD
i think 15 will stay of the coast, similar to Irene's path, maybe be a huricane as it heads for the coast and turns away from the coast
92L may have to be watched for flare ups of convection as it enters the caribbean, nothing as of now.
93L has become td#15, see top on 15
94L may or may not cross the state of florida, if it does it will be weak, the question is after it crosses the state, if it does at all, would it go into the GOM? if if doesn't cross the state like Hootowl said, it may ride the E.FLA coast of into the atlantic, all we can do is wait and see.
lets just hope we get fish spinners only in this already busy, devastating season. Thanks again for the happy birthday's..and the sympathy for the events of Katrina.
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 12:44 AM |
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Re: busy busy busy
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the question is after it crosses the state, if it does at all, would it go into the GOM?
I hate to be Capt. Obvious here, but since Florida is a peninsula which separates the GOM from the Atlantic Ocean; if it crosses Florida, it would have to end up in the GOM (unless you're talking about only sort-of cross it and going into GA)
| Robert |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 12:49 AM |
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Observations in bahamas as of 8:00pm
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Place Temp Humidity Pressure Conditions
Freeport 77 °F / 25 °C 89% 29.90 in / 1012 hPa Overcast ENE at 13 mph / 20 km/h 8:00 PM EDT
Nassau 82 °F / 28 °C 84% 29.86 in / 1011 hPa Mostly Cloudy Variable at 2 mph / 4 km/h 8:00 PM
George Town 82 °F / 28 °C 66% 29.88 in / 1012 hPa Clear WSW at 5 mph / 7 km/h 8:10 PM EDT
Freeport is in the northern Bahamas, Nassau is in the central north Bahamas, and George town is in the southern Bahamas.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 01:22 AM |
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Re: Observations in bahamas as of 8:00pm
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Those pressures do not seem very low. We have had extremely low pressures crossing over Florida before and they did not cause a tropical storm or depression to occur. Hopefully the high will help to keep those pressures from falling anymore. I don't mind the rain as I have to work anyway. And, 3 or 4 inches in this sand means nothing but gravy for the water tables. It is not a big deal.
| Robert |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 01:31 AM |
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Maria
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Maria Looks Better then ever with a nice circular eye. I am wondering if she will be the next major hurricane of the 2005 season.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 01:56 AM |
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Re: Observations in bahamas as of 8:00pm
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Please Excuse My being Totally Off topic. I have made it back to the Board after a Week away from the "outside". Except for my 2 Local TV stations...Who have kept us in touch with "The Real World". To quote Alan Jackson.
I had spoken with a few of you prior to Katrina. Phil, Thank You so much for keeping every one advised on my whereabouts.
I'm at work tonight, and I'm rather busy...as you might expect. I'll try to answer your PM's and Emails as soon as I can.
~danielw aka Danny
| 317288 |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 02:05 AM |
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Re: setting the pace
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Quote:
.. it's worth noting that some of the models still see an impulse in the gulf that migrates over to texas. doesn't exist right now.. may be something the models are erroneously splitting off of 94L. all the same, eyeball any convection that develops and persists over the gulf.
Looks like something brewing down between Mexico and Yucatan....
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 02:42 AM |
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Re: setting the pace
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HURRICANE MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST MON SEP 05 2005
... MARIA NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 115 MPH WINDS ...
...REMAINS FAR FROM LAND BUT A HAZARD TO SHIPPING...
another one for the BOOKS!!!!
Major Cane...NO THREAT to US
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 03:01 AM |
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upgrade?
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looks like 15 has been upgraded to nate. no advisory yet...
HF 0301z06september
thought i'd add some other observations...
think the feature near the bahamas may end up with a serpentine sort of track... to the coast, back offshore, then back to the coast.. as it interacts with nate and is potentially dragged by the shortwave progged to get nate.. and then pushed back to the coast as ridging rebuilds. for some reason that track scenario is standing out to me. do think this system... 94L... will be pesky.
looking at the height anomalies the ensembles are showing a few days out... looks like a mean ridge position over the eastern u.s. migrating slowly eastward. nao is positive right now, which favors zonal ridging. the anomaly pattern actually looks sort of like what we had with dennis back in july, only shifted westward. for that reason.. think that for the next two weeks the western gulf coast.. texas in particular.. will be threatened if anything develops in the caribbean. this teleconnects fairly well with the tracks of typhoons in the westpac at this time. on the flip side.. based on the forecast migration of the height anomalies.. the east coast may be in the threat zone late in the month, if the pattern progression follows from there.
HF 0332z06september
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 03:05 AM |
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Re: upgrade?
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It has been upgraded - wind 35G45kts. Pressure 1005mb. Movement to the west at 2kts.
I've posted an update on the Main News page.
ED
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 03:31 AM |
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Re: busy busy busy
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Quote:
the question is after it crosses the state, if it does at all, would it go into the GOM?
I hate to be Capt. Obvious here, but since Florida is a peninsula which separates the GOM from the Atlantic Ocean; if it crosses Florida, it would have to end up in the GOM (unless you're talking about only sort-of cross it and going into GA)
i mean, if its weak enough over florida it could dissapate and be gone lol yea i realize that florida seperates the GOM and atlantic..lol..sorry for the misunderstanding
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 04:56 AM |
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Re: Observations in bahamas as of 8:00pm
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Welcome back Danny!
Not too much to add to HF's discussion (quite frankly, I've been out all day and haven't had the chance to look at any hurricanes other than those of the Miami persuasion), though I'd watch 92L down the line. It's on the cyclonic shear side (i.e. north side) of some low-level crossequatorial flow and should remain that way into the western Caribbean. Simply put, there's a little bit of extra oomph in the low-level to help start a circulation. Once it slows down a little and gets into a slightly better environment, it could get going again (like it had been forecast to do before). Most likely a western Gulf threat down the line; may end up even like the other three in the southern Gulf.
Maria helps add some oomph to the seasonal numbers; that's 4 major hurricanes now. Nate's not a threat to do that, but it could perk up to near hurricane intensity as it most likely heads out. Right now, a threat to Bermuda down the line...don't think it heads this way.
More once I calm down and get a chance to look at things, probably in a day or so.
| LadyStorm |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 09:41 AM |
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Re: busy busy busy
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i mean, if its weak enough over florida it could dissapate and be gone lol yea i realize that florida seperates the GOM and atlantic..lol..sorry for the misunderstanding
94L could be going over Florida as early as starting tonight. Here is what this morning's NWS of Melborne update had to say:
MODELS DEEPEN THE LOW AND DRIFT IT TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF FL
THROUGH TONIGHT AND BRING IT OVER THE PENINSULA WED-THURS. STILL
SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN NAM/GFS WITH SPECIFICS OF THIS SYSTEM AND
NHC IS MONITORING THIS SYSTEM FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPMENT...
WITH A PLANNED RECON FLIGHT INTO THE SYSTEM TODAY...SO FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SUBJECT TO REVISION AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES.
EXTENDED...FORECAST MAINLY TEMPERED GFS FIELDS AND BLENDING
TOWARD SURROUNDING OFFICES ON QPF. IT WILL BE CLOUDY AND LOOKING AT
SOME HIGH POPS AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN SQUALLS
MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS. HIGHER WINDS SHOULD BE OVER
NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS/ATLATIC AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHWEST (?)
I would say this system bears watching today.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 11:43 AM |
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Re: busy busy busy
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Ok...quick run down...
Maria - it's done effecting anyone except the fish and the boats. It's weakening, and should continue to weaken as it moves north.
Nate - I expect it to reach weak hurricane based on the models. It's trapped below a ridge of high pressure and isn't moving much. A lot depends on where and how it punches through this ridge. The models keep it well out at sea, but I wouldn't place all my faith in that. So long as that ridge is there we could see it do some erratic movement. GFS has the ridge weakening in a couple of days, and that's when the system punches through. The big question in my mind is: "why is it punching through there?" I don't see much on the pressure models to make it take the model track beyond "that's what most hurricanes tend to do." Still bears watching, but will probably do little more than stir some fish.
94L - The big question. It's looking good on sat presentation this morning. Plenty of moist air around it. It's in a relatively low shear environment. The biggest obsticles to growth appear to be interaction with land. The models are highly divergent on both track and intensity. Some throw it northeast, some north, some northwest, and one likes keeping it almost stationary before dissipating it. And for intensity, GFDL dissipates it and Ships brings it to hurricane in 72 hours. Looking at the ridge north of it (the same one that has Nate trapped), I'd dismiss any northward movement for now. Given that the system has shown almost no inclination to move, even though the models have been calling for steady (though divergent) movement over the last several days, I'd say this thing is just going to sit where it is and continue to grow for the next several days until the ridge to the north and northwest weakens. Once that happens, I'd expect it to head northwest toward FL, possibly more westerly. Hard to know the track this far ahead, and impossible to guess on the intensity. There is little to hamper continued growth so long as it stays at sea. One thing working for us if it does cross into the GoM: SSTs still haven't recovered from Katrina. They are just slightly below seasonal averages now...instead of WAY above like they were a week ago.
92L - This one we need to watch. It has maintained its characteristics for the past several weaks despite heavy shear environments. It's still a weak wave, but it could easily spawn something once it gets through a weak SAL environment (remnants of a SAL wave from over a week ago) over the next couple of days. This SAL hasn't been speeding west, and in fact 92L has been catching it slowly. The SAL also has been weakening steadily, and give it another couple days and it might no longer be an impedence to anything. On the far side of this SAL we have a moist environment with high SSTs heading toward the Yucatan. Beyond the Yucatan we have high SSTs throughout the western GoM. I'd expect to see 92L begin to do something in 2-3 days as it nears the Yucatan. What...well...it's too early to tell.
Mid-atlantic wave(s) - they are beneath some strong SAL, which will limit development. I'd watch them as they head west though...if they break free of the SAL (or if the SAL moves away from it), we could see it start to do something. Shear is high in that part of the Atlantic though...so it might be a while before anything develops. Something to watch toward the end of the week...maybe early next week. (These two waves are at 45W and 32W - the one at 32W looks far healthier...the one at 45W doesn't even show on sat!)
Africa - another wave/low looks to be moving off of Africa today. It's quite far south -- far enough from the SAL that it might not be impeeded by the dry air. It still has the strong shear environment to deal with, though the shear seems to be receeding west somewhat. If the shear doesn't tear it appart, this could be the next CV system. Both NOGAPS and GFS dont' seem to pick up on it very well, turning it quickly north after it is fully over water. This doesn't make sense to me...but thats what the models show. My opinion is that it will track west. Waves don't tend to move north. It already looks impressive...and it isn't fully off Africa yet!
--RC
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 12:09 PM |
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Re: busy busy busy
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I just checked the radar loop out of Miami and it appears that the circulation center of 94L is just about on shore at FT Lauderdale. If so this storm will be very shortlived and be another rain event for the south Florida area. That would leave us another 2 weeks or so before we would have to get into alert mode wouldn't it? Great to hear that the Gulf Temps on the East side are still coolish. It definitely feels like fall is in the air here this morning and yesterday morning. Lets get old man winter to visit a little early this year and get this mayhem over with.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 12:27 PM |
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Re: busy busy busy
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Yeah...I see. It's been sitting that close to the coast for the past 2-3 days...hasn't effected it yet in getting its act together.
If anything, it looks like it's drifting slightly south. Hard to tell though...it might be not moving at all!
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 12:51 PM |
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Re: Observations in bahamas as of 8:00pm
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Quote:At the risk of being also off-topic, I can only say that there were a bunch of us giving a collective sigh of relief to hear you were alive and well, and to ask you to let us know how we as a supportive community, how we can help you and your neighbors. I suspect New Orleans, Biloxi and the other communities may very well fare well but after reading your E-Mail to me, I suspect the towns not right on the coast may have to fight to get meaningful help. Let us know what we can do.
Please Excuse My being Totally Off topic. I have made it back to the Board after a Week away from the "outside". Except for my 2 Local TV stations...Who have kept us in touch with "The Real World". To quote Alan Jackson.
I had spoken with a few of you prior to Katrina. Phil, Thank You so much for keeping every one advised on my whereabouts.
I'm at work tonight, and I'm rather busy...as you might expect. I'll try to answer your PM's and Emails as soon as I can.
~danielw aka Danny
Now, to make it somewhat more on-topic, Invest 94L seems to be expanding this morning but hasn't moved much, maybe a bit West. It also seems to have a bit of rotation, albeit hard to tell but it appears there could be a classification of TD very soon. We'll all pray that whatever it does, it stays out of the Gulf and blows and rains itself out over the Atlantic, or if need be, over the Florida landmass. Anything but where Katrina ravaged.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 01:13 PM |
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Re: busy busy busy
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I sure hope you're right, my friend! We had a good amount of rain here yesterday from around 2 - 4pm. I almost feel sick thinking of anything else developing.
Haven't been able to get on lately, both kids had strep throat. If anyone can give me updates on Frank and others who were affected by the storm, please PM me. Thank you!
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 01:22 PM |
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Re: busy busy busy
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Can't help you there Colleen, but Tropical depression 16 has formed east of Florida........at least it is called 16 NONAME at NRL. More to come!!!!!
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 01:23 PM |
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TD 16 FORMS!
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NRL now has 94L upgraded to Tropical Depression 16...1st advisory to be initiated at 11am
--Lou
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 01:27 PM |
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Re: TD 16 FORMS!
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This is the latest from the HPC.
Can someone put it into english for me. It mentions going with the NOGAPS, however, the ony NG I can find has it going east. HPC says it will go west.
NO MATTER FAR NORTH THIS POTENTIAL TROP CYC GETS...THE STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE BUILDING OVR THE SOUTHEAST WL FORCE IT WWD/WSWWD
EVENTUALLY... SIMILAR TO KATRINAS TRACK BUT FARTHER NORTH. THE
ECMWF IS ONE OF THE WORST MODELS IN FCSTG TROP CYC MOTION...
USUALLY SHOWING A WWD BIAS IN THE SUBTROPICS...SO THE MANUAL PROGS
HAVE REVERTED BACK TO OUR COORDINATED POINTS FROM YESTERDAY AT
16Z. THE CAN/UKMET/NCEP ENSMEAN STILL SHOW/HINT AT FULL
RECURVATURE WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND THE LOOK OF THE UPPER PATTERN IN
THOSE MDLS. THE COORDINATED POINTS ARE CLOSEST TO THE 05/12Z GFS
AND MOST RECENT NOGAPS... WHICH NORMALLY SHOW GREATER SKILL W/TROP
CYCS THAN THE ECMWF.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 01:32 PM |
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Re: TD 16 FORMS!
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IS this YOUR statement or the NHC'S????
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 01:35 PM |
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Re: TD 16 FORMS!
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It's the HPC's
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 01:36 PM |
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Indications
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Actually, the center of activity is further to the east. Weak developing systems often have two or three centers of rotation - usually they only last for a few hours. The Miami radar was picking up one of them - but its not the main player. Except for a well developed hurricane, radar is not the best tool for locating the center - primarily because of the radar beam height as it slices through the storm (in this case, at an altitude of over 3,000 feet).
Invest 94L is slowly becoming better organized this morning with some low level banding features and good convection (mostly north of the center). Pressure is down to 1009mb at Freeport on Grand Bahama Island and the wind is out of the northeast. At Nassau, the wind is out of the southwest. At the Settlement Point Buoy on GBI, the wind has been brisk out of the north northeast. The 12Z coordinates used by NOAA for the model runs were 26.5N 78.5W - which seem reasonable. Here is a link to the buoy at Settlement Point:
NOAA Settlement Point Buoy, Grand Bahama Island
I expect that this system will soon be upgraded to a Tropical Depression with slow intensification and erratic but slow movement to the northwest. The initial Advisory - probably at 11am - will help to clarify this.
Cheers,
ED
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 01:50 PM |
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here goes
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the title 16L is up on nrl now. i was thinking that was fairly likely based on the improved satellite appearance.. gonna go check radar and see what the heck is going on in all that mess..
HF 1350z06september
looks like several folks noted this on the last page. see the hpc discussion.. think it'll be either that or the onshore/offshore loop i was thinking about yesterday (several of the globals actually show it now..) -HF
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 02:02 PM |
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The loop
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Was wondering about a loop myself...just ran the 850mb vorticity models...consistent except for mm5...takes it east..majority over & up middle Fl...cmc splits it...piece in gulf rest into GA...ukmet shows it going back into Atl & appears to strengthen some & maybe even come back into Fl again? Am I reading that right? What's your...or anyone else's take?
| native |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 02:49 PM |
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Re: The loop
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In case anyone's interested: NOAA - 11am update is available
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/061444.shtml
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 02:53 PM |
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Re: The loop
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Interesting track. What are the reamifications of this for erosion? I know it would be worse on the Gulf Coast as FL would get the east side of the storm.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 02:54 PM |
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Re: TD 16 FORMS!
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emackl, if I may decode please. Yesterdays HPC graphics had the system off the SE FL coast heading due west along the southern tip of the peninsula (similar to Katrina) - largely based on the Euro model (ECMWF) - thus the discussion this morning regarding the westward bias. See the animation below for the latest track from HPC - they indicated they have coordinated with the NHC on future movement so when the 11AM comes out naming this system TD16, this will likely be the projected track for the next 5 days. Looks like they compromised between the GFS and NOGAPs for the early period and then went with a pure GFS or GFDL track into the GOM for the later period.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 02:56 PM |
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Re: The loop
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WOW good morning and im am absolutely amazed at how many storms we are tracking today. i do have a question though, im sure it has been answered somewhere(just dont know where) but why is the peak of hurricane season in August/September?
| Wingman51 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 03:01 PM |
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Re: The loop
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I think I heard the actual peak is September 10
| Juanjo |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 03:03 PM |
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Re: The loop
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Long time lurker, first time poster. The height of the hurricane season is early September. I believe that the peak is September 10th.
As to TD 16, Here in the greater Fort Lauderdale area, we have a dreary day, rainy, low ceilings, low temperatures (for Florida anyway)...Looking to see what TD16 will bring. I just hope that it does not go into the Gulf or anywhere near the LA, MS coast.
JJ
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 03:28 PM |
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Re: The loop
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I'm going to need to study TD#16 a bit more. If it drifts as long as it is supposed to it may be more than a Tropical Storm. Anyone see what can keep it weaker at the moment?
At work it's hard to really look at all of it. Mostly I'm worried about more erosion along New Smyrna. I might head over there tonight or tomorrow evening.
| DJINFLA |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 03:30 PM |
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Re: The loop
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East central coast of Florida is taking notice now. From the Indian River County Emergency Management (Nate McCollum):
"Indian River County will remain on the west side of this system as it continues to develop. The confidence on this track is not high because of no distinct movement. The models are not in agreement and vary over 500 miles in potential movement over the next 3 days. The potential for continued strengthening is likely and this may become a hurricane in the next 3-4 days. The biggest problem for our area will be the extension of the tropical storm force winds and the movement. This will be a very tricky forecast and everyone should pay close attention.
This will likely be a big rain event for the entire east coast. Depending on the strengthening, wind preparations may be necessary later in the week. No protective actions are being recommended at this time, but actions may be necessary tomorrow. Hurricane watches may be issued tomorrow if significant strengthening occurs.
This is a brief update because I am waiting for the planes to complete their investigations. I will issue another update this afternoon after the planes complete their investigations."
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 03:36 PM |
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Re: The loop
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The peak is this point in the year because this is when water temperatures and (usually) upper level winds are at their most favorable for development out in the eastern Atlantic. Waters are also at or near their peak along the east coast of the US and Gulf of Mexico, allowing for close-in development from either tropical waves or occasionally along the tail end of a trough of low pressure (as we've seen recently).
In June and July, the waters and upper-level winds generally aren't favorable out in the E. Atlantic; ditto October and November. Conditions outside of the season are generally unfavorable in terms of both shear and upper-level winds with tropical waves both less numerous and less organized during those times.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 03:43 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast
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Is there any possibility TD 16 could track into the Gulf or it is a pretty sure bet it will stay off the coast of Florida? Also, why is the
cone a circular shape for this storm?
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 03:46 PM |
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Re: The loop
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I forgot that the radar is not a good tool for locating centers of circulation my oops.
Also wanted to point out that the TD 16 barring others beating it to it, the name will be Ophelia. For those who are not familiar with it, Ophelia was in love with Hamlet and he was stringing her along actually more interested in avenging his father's death than in Ophelia who was sort of picked for him due to the politics in the area at the time. Ophelia eventually descended into insanity and comitted suicide. Now hopefully this storm will disperse before dropping into insanity. We have had enough of that with Katrina.
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 03:49 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast
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When there is no confidence on any particular track, the storm is moving slowly, or the storm is forecast to do a loop, you tend to see the pronounced circles.
The "smaller" part of the cone is still there, but it's encompassed by the larger error cone and so it's "invisible".
Hope this helps.
| native |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 03:54 PM |
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Re: The loop
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It'll be interesting to see what recon comes back with. Does anyone know if these are truly the coordinates of the recon or is it possible that they just haven't updated the recon info (destination) on NOAA??
From NOAA:
Quote:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 051500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT MON 05 SEPTEMBER 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z SEP 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-100
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 06/1800Z A. 07/0600Z
B. NOAA2 01HHA INVEST B. NOAA3 02HHA CYCLONE
C. 06/1630Z C. 07/0430Z
D. 26.0N 79.5W D. 26.2N 80.0W
E. 06/1730Z TO 06/2200Z E. 07/0530Z TO 07/1000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
REMAINS OVER WATER AND IS A THREAT.
Just wondering why they'd send recon in approximately 34.5 mi. south of where they've estimated the COC to be? Any info would be appreciated.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 03:56 PM |
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Re: The loop
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MikeC, I was actually surprised to see it so well organized this morning, and you're right, this could become a hurricane if it stays over water for as long as they project. The track is a bit problematic, but I don't see it getting too far north with the ridge in place. But time will tell. I would not be surprised to see a hurricane watch go up sometime tomorrow. . Interesting storm we have here. Cheers!!
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 03:57 PM |
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Re: The loop
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that was before it became 16, so at the time the approx. coords. were all
they had to call it..
it will still go out today same time but to the extimated center now.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 04:00 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast
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So at this point there isn't much confidence in the track of this depression? I am of course, concerned about the Gulf
Coast and was wondering if the storm could track into the Gulf or if they are pretty sure it will stay off the coast of Florida.
I had asked before Katrina hit if there was any way that storm could track as far as Louisiana because I was VERY concerned about
that happening. And then that's what happened. So just a little concerned.
| Hootowl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 04:09 PM |
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Re: The loop
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GOES floater 2 now on TD16.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html
p.s. - what is all the stuff showing in the gulf? It was mentioned earlier that there may be something to watch in the gulf. (not trying to alarm anyone)
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 04:13 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast
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I think its a fairly safe bet to say that short term motion of TD16 will be unsure and erratic, especially as it is still in the formative stages. Intensity will also be closely links to the track the cyclone takes. If it follows the NHC current forecast tracks, or possibly goes a little to the right of it, then we could quite posibly see this become a Hurricane. However, of course, it it goes to the left of the forecast track the likelihood of seeing it become a hurricane is much decreased. Interaction with land could also hinder development. However, with favourable atmospheric and oceanic conditions, i think we will see this TD upgraded to Ophelia later today or tonight, and see a continued strengthening trend right up until landfall somewhere over the northeastern coast of Florida.
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 04:42 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast
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As we all seen with Katrina when it hit Florida, I think the term "minimal" should be dropped. Remember, it is a CAT 1. As the GOV said, regardless the size, it is still a "Hurricane". So I think that the NHC should drop that term. A CAT 1 hurricane is just that. Regardless of the impact.
| native |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 04:47 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast
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What am I missing? I just don't see how this is going to make it up to Daytona/St. Aug/Jacksonville area???
www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/QUNA00latest.gif
Maybe I'm just paranoid.
| trinibaje |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 04:52 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast
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Force i couldn't agree with you more about the minimal issue. NHC needs to drop that term. A Cat 1 hurricane could disrupt your life and cause death. A hurricane is a hurricane. Here in Southern Dade County, from all the reports before Katrina we were suppose to be on a clean side of the storm and nothing much was suppose to occur . However that was not the case. After Katrina, a hurricane anywhere my vicinity causes me concern.
| Brad in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 05:22 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast
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The term "minimal" is not part of the official classification of hurricanes. However, it is useful to distinguish, for example, a 74 mph storm from a 95 mph storm.
And frankly, I think it's very useful in cases such as Katrina, particularly to clarify for people in South Florida that what we experienced with Katrina was a minimal Cat 1 hurricane; in fact, many if not most places only experienced strong tropical storm force winds, i.e., sustained winds below 74 mph, despite the fact that gusts were greater than that (which is consistent with strong TS conditions). For some reason, despite the yearly threat of tropical systems here, there continue to be problems of preparedness and expectation in South Florida. Part of this may be due to several news stations' broadcast of information/forecasts which do not accurately reflect those put out by the NHC, and part of it may be due to the fact that before Katrina, most of the Greater Miami area had not experienced category 1 conditions since at least the 60's. (Yes, parts of the county had experienced a Cat 5, and parts had experienced less than that during Andrew; but otherwise, we've only had brushes with hurricanes since the 60's, the strongest probably being strong TS conditions in parts of Miami with Irene in 1999. I realize the eye of Irene passed over Miami-Dade County, but Greater Miami did not have sustained 74+ mph winds during that storm.)
I think that by clarifying that what we experienced was a minimal Cat 1 hurricane (if even that; once again, many places did not experience sustained hurricane force winds), the lessons are: (1) even a TS or minimal hurricane can cause significant damage, power outages, etc. (which is entirely in line with what is predicted with such storms, and consistent with the NHC forecast in this case); and (2) a strong CAT 1 would produce even more damage, and we would have to be prepared for even more than what Katarina delivered if a 95 mph storm (still a Cat 1) were bearing down on us.
In the case of Katrina, we got exactly what the NHC predicted and exactly what is expected with such a storm. We were under a hurricane warning for approximately 20 hours before the storm hit; the NHC never backed down from statements that we could experience a Cat 1 hurricane in Miami, although the odds of a direct hit were higher in WPB and Broward. The damage in South Miami-Dade, although surprising to many, was exactly what is expected with a minimal Cat 1 and less than what is expected with a strong Cat 1. We have tons of tree damage, some damage to power lines and signs, but very minimal/sparse damage to structures; and many of use lost power for 3-7+ days. This is exactly what is predicted with a 75-80 mph storm.
Although I wish Katrina hadn't affected us, or anyone else, I hope it serves as a wake up call to South Florida as to what a minimal Cat 1 storm can do. Unfortunately, I continue to have doubts that many lessons were learned. Even now, only about 10 days later, I don't think there's much change. Perhaps not the best proof, but one sign: there's a depression very nearby that probably won't affect us, but "probably" isn't what preparation should be based on; the NHC's experimental wind product shows a 29% of tropical storm force winds in Miami, and the public should be aware of that fact, of the fact that there is a chance of having tropical storm conditions in Miami. Unfortunately, pretty much everybody I've spoken to today has just said, "That storm is going north of us," and some of this morning's newscasts did nothing to change that perception. This isn't much different than the general public perception of the threat from Irene, Katrina, and many storms which did miss us. (Of course this doesn't apply to everyone, as some people are well aware of NHC's forecasts, but it certainly is a problem.)
Every storm that comes near, these problems baffle me more. Tropical prediction is not an exact science, but most people seem to want "yes" or "no" answers regarding tropical systems, and will only listen to those answers. Either it is going to hit us or it isn't; there's no middle ground, no "maybe." But the science is only at the point of "maybes."
Please forgive my little rant, but I really don't know how the NHC or other organizations can get their messages out more effectively. They seem to say things very clearly, but sometimes I feel like people/newscasters/others aren't listening or reading. It must be very frustrating for forecasters.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 05:29 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast
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Very nicely put Brad, I for one, am always on alert when something is within 300 miles or so from me and stay that way until I am certain it has passed (and isnt coming back, as some do). I am watching 16 carefully and appreciate all the input I get from here as well as the NHC and elsewhere.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 05:43 PM |
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ophelia....
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alright. getting our o-storm probably on september 6th/7th. that's nuts, in case anyone is wondering.
forecast track makes some sense... more sense than the earlier progs across the state. deeper nate to the east may tug it, stronger beta advection due to a stronger system should keep it from whisking across florida. other things will dictate when/how it makes landfall. at some point the storm will be close enough to the coast that the asymmetric windfield should start to wobble it onshore.... probably up near the northern coast of florida. probably be around low-end hurricane strength at the time. the ridge to the north is forecast to break down, but there won't be a sharp shortwave to capture it, just a flat based trough sliding by to the north around the weekend. at this point shear may decouple the storm and a piece will jet westward, or it may just drift east and offshore. heights are supposed to rise in the wake, so ophelia may end up doing a loop and double landfall. due to the nature of the ridge breakdown and resurgence on the models, i'd expect that more than a sharp recurvature. whether it can regenerate offshore would be another issue altogether.. probably just stay steady-state. regardless i'm thinking this storm will be around all week, all weekend, into next week. probably tons or rain between say vero and brunswick ga.
nate may get a little stronger than progged... and the forecast track is very close to bermuda. they may take their hardest lick since fabian in 2003. doesn't look like nate will bother anyone else.
maria is weakening and on the way out... 48-72 hrs or so it should be losing tropical characteristics.
two waves at low latitudes worth mention.. one nearing 35w, the other is old 92L near 62w. the 35w wave has a large envelope and broad surface low, with scattered convection. it's already feeling southerly shear ahead of the large trough near 50w. this trough should be splitting at some point... so there's a chance enough of a feature will make it through to develop something, but looking improbable at this point. old 92L still has a broad turning near 16/63, but has only spotty convection and is in a dry environment.. some of its energy is propagating northward in maria/nate's direction. whatever is left in the western caribbean will be worth watching late in the week, but not a lot should make it.
the gulf is the last place to eyeball. the upper trough/low over the central gulf is diving sw and should induce some ridging aloft over the surface trough it has already generated from the boc up to the central part. some of the globals are showing a weak surface feature in this area... dependent on how concentrated convection remains, it may be trying to stew up as it migrates generally towards texas by the end of the week.
three active systems. not a lot of space to fit others, so the other mentions are low-end prospects.
HF 1743z06september
| Hootowl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 05:44 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast
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I'll second that - good post.
I continues to amaze me too - that people do not take depressions/TS/Hurricanes serious. I get laughed at or told "it's on the other side of the state". They don't believe that anything can affect them unless it's two miles from their house.
Ah well... enough of my rant too.
Everyone here does a fine job and I hope they realize how much they are appreciated.
Keep watching everyone - may be a long week ahead.
Hoot
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 06:56 PM |
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Re: TD16
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There looks to be a broad, perhaps elongated center reforming to the N-NW of the 11 AM NHC's position according to long range radar out of Melbourne - I'd estimate the new center about 50 miles east of Ft Pierce. It will be interesting to know what recon finds.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kmlb.shtml
| Anton Ross |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 07:09 PM |
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WX in Charleston
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Looks like we're now getting a bit of the tail of soon-to-be Ophelia.
Here in Charleston we've had some torrential downpours this morning and afternoon, with winds gusting to 20-25 mph out of the East.
On the plus side, the temp outside is AWESOME at only 75 degrees F. It is normally brutally hot here this time of year.
I see a lot of rain/T-storms sitting off the coast making their way in towards us. Looks like this week will be a washout for any outdoor activities.
The subject of Cat 1 storms is interesting. Last year when we had TS Gaston and Hermine cruise through, most people didn't really expect much, and yet we had lots of flooding and trees down. My out-laws (wife's parents) live on the coast in Murrells Inlet (South of Myrtle Beach), and they had some really tall pines come down and destroy fencing and other structures on their property. One of the felled pines was pretty big. I am hopeful that after people will finally wake up and realize that even Tropical Storms can cause serious damage with wind alone...let alone the flooding rains we experienced. We had to move our vehicles up on to our front lawn since that was the highest ground we had at home. Had to tear down part of our wrought iron fence to do it, but that was cheaper than dealing with underwater Subarus.
Like everyone, I am heartbroken about NoLa. Hopefully this will serve as a wake-up call for the feds (and state) to start being proactive about storm damage prevention. It seems to me that the NHC has done a tremendous job of letting everyone know what sort of damage might be coming their way. People really need to pay attention to them when they speak.
Just my 2 cents from the (s)Lowcountry.
/Anton
| native |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 07:14 PM |
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Re: TD16
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Ron - Recon is back..reported back at approx.. 1:45pm EDT. Click on Recon info under heading Storm Data here on the far left.
What I thought curious was the winds were only 23mph & pressure was up to 1010mb. Looks like the GFDL dissipating this may very well be our model winner again! (Let's hope
)But, it may be a bit premature to breathe a sigh of relief just yet. 5pm update should prove to be a little more telling.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 07:48 PM |
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Re: TD16
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It's premature to say that the depression is weaker than thought. They came in on the west side of the storm and have not sampled the stronger eastern side of the storm. Good bet there's something a bit stronger there.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 07:50 PM |
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Re: TD16
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Gotta say the GFDL model has been pretty darn consistent in taking a weak system across central Fl to the GOM. The lastest 12Z run matches the track of the system the last two days (past 6 or 7 runs now).
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation
| Brad in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 08:00 PM |
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Latest vortex message
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Not sure if recon has been in the NE quadrant yet. So far, lowest pressure approximately 1008 mb. Close to what NHC estimated at 2 pm.
URNT12 KNHC 061943
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 06/1922Z
B. 26 DEG 43 MIN N
78 DEG 09 MIN W
C. NA
D. 20 KTS
E. 045 DEG 90 NM
F. 130 DEG 24 KT
G. 020 DEG 42 NM
H. EXTRAP 1008 MB
I. 25 C/ 444 M
J. 25 C/ 456 M
K. 21 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134/1
O. 1/7 NM
P. NOAA2 0116A INVEST OB 06
MAX FL WIND 27 KTS SE QUAD 1824Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT
| Myles |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 08:00 PM |
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Gulf Of Mexico
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What is that excactly in the GoM? It certainly has a destinctive spin, but I know its not a tropical low. Is it mearly a UUL that had wandered(or formed) in the western GoM? If so, is there any chance that it works it's way down to the surface and creates a tropical low?
After another look I take back 'I know its not a tropical low' because now I think it very well could be. I see what I think could be a surface spin but I'm no Met so, to sum it all up, what the heck it is?
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 08:21 PM |
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Re: Gulf Of Mexico
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Def looks like some spin to me as well
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 08:24 PM |
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Re: Gulf Of Mexico
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TD 16 is in a bad spot: between Nate and that deepening low in the central GOM...which while an upper low...is showing some signs of building convection ( a surface feature perhaps?) and is certainly contributing to the shear over 16.
I think a case can be made that 16 won't really evolve
The center is very near the big island and not much convection around it now..
I am impressed with the changes taking place in the upper low in the GOM much different now than this morning...
| Brad in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 08:29 PM |
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Re: Gulf Of Mexico
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I believe that area in the GOM is a 3rd or 4th low that spun up from the broad trough that everyone was talking about last week & last weekend. If you look back many posts, HankFrank, Clark, and others (Steve, I think; maybe Ron) discussed the possibility of 3 distinct lows forming along that trough. At least three did form, although the one currently in the GOM may actually be a fourth (I believe the third dissipated a day or two ago, but I may be incorrect), or it may be the remains of that third low. (The other two are now Nate and TD 16.)
Amazing to have watched the pattern set up and everything, 3-4 pattern-induced lows, come to fruition.
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 08:34 PM |
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uh oh...
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Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Dennis
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katrina
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rita
Stan
Tammy
Vince
Wilma
they're gonna run out of names!
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 08:34 PM |
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Re: Gulf Of Mexico
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...
.....
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...26.7 N... 78.5 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...1008 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.
not much change today....
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 08:38 PM |
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Re: Gulf Of Mexico
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The discussion:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200516.disc.html
No major change...lot of uncertainty in track.
| native |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 08:52 PM |
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Re: uh oh...
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Actually Rick (and I know you were only kidding...I hope) If we run out of names, they resort to the Greek alphabet. By the by, how are things in Mobile??
As for the 5pm update, I thought might have been a bit more telling..but alas, mother nature sure does like to be mysterious doesn't she?
Forecaster Avila's comments in the 5pm discussion:
Quote:
I AM A
LITTLE BIT UNCOMFORTABLE BRINGING THE INTENSITY UP FARTHER WHEN THE GFDL DOES NOT STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE.
are interesting....guess it just goes to show how much they (NHC) value the output of that particular model this year.
weather.sun-sentinel.com/tropical/tracking/at200516_model.html
GFDL is this is awfully far south of the others??? However, being the lay person that I am, I'm not sure if they've been run again and just not updated on that site...although they update adv./tracks faster that NHC's site....go figure.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 08:54 PM |
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Re: Gulf Of Mexico
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Interesting that Avila mentions that he is hesitant to forecast a stronger system because the GFDL does not develop it at all. The GFDL did not develop Katrina into a tropical storm until after it became a tropical storm, at which point it suddenly started forecasting a major hurricane. Given the uncertainties involved, I think the official forecast is very reasonable. If it can consolidate soon and sit over the Gulf Stream for awhile, it could become a hurricane, but if it moves quicker than expected toward the coast or the shear does not diminsh as expected, it may not even become a tropical storm. The 10% wind speed probabilities on the 5pm advisory are at 110 mph (borderline cat 2/3) at the high end and 25 mph (generally considered below T.D. status) on the low end at 72 hours, which is a good indication of the uncertainty in this particular case.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 09:48 PM |
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Re: Gulf Of Mexico
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Just thought I'd drop a note I saw about Katrina related web sites. The following graph (developed by the Internet Storm Center...that is as in viruses, worms, etc...not hurricanes) shows the number of new domain registations with "Katrina" in the title since Katrina hit land.
I wonder how many of them are phishing sites?
http://isc.sans.org/images/katrina.png
---
I see we have TD16. Not unexpected. I see a TS in it tomorrow.
Nate...will be hurricane tomorrow probably.
Maria will continue to weaken.
Doug's system in the gulf...I see that but it looks disorganized and, as Doug said, upper level. I doubt it will develop, but it's not one I'd ignore either.
It's too active out there!
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 09:48 PM |
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Re: Gulf Of Mexico
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first a bit of correction for Thunderbird12: 25mph seems to be the threashold for TD status--in 1995 that is where TD6 was upgraded
i think by now that any speculations from the end of last month about not reaching Dr. Gray's forecast numbers because of a "quiet" August are probably gone. I even expected an active season, and we have 14 storms now, possibly a 15th by this time tomorrow. On average we have 55%-60% of storm activity after August; there were 12 before September, and that may have only been 45% of the season's activity.
Now to the actual storms, Maria is weakening, i think it will be a tropical storm by tomorrow morning of not tonight; Nate appears much better organized than even 12 hours ago, it will become a hurricane tomorrow morning; TD16, while disorganized, appears on satellite to be trying to pull itself together, although i am thinking it will not reach 70mph as forecast but more like 50mph. I am currently under a TS Warning also, so i will be headed to the store after work tonight to by film for my camera
| Jekyhe904 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 10:00 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast
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Local Meteorologist here in Jacksonville Tim Deegan said we may see 70-80 MPH winds. I hope this is Hype
But winds are already gusting to 35 and this is beginning to remind me of last september. Am I to plan an evac/ spend-a-night party every september ? This looks to be a prolonged event for Jax if true with the painfully slow movement. Cant we drop some supersized blocks of ice into the eye and oceans in the storms path?
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 10:05 PM |
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Todays activity
|
Well guys, here are my thoughts on our three systems today:
Maria - weakening now due to the hostile shear conditions now moving in from the west. Should be a TS by the 0300z advisory package i would have thought, but it may hold out for a further 6 hours. Interesting how the models keep it as a strong ET system out to 120 hrs. Certainly something i will be watching closely from this side of the pond!
Nate - Visible imagery shows Nate is very well organised. In fact there could well be a CDO feature now developing within the convective cloud shield. This would indicate that it is still strengthening, and will most likely become a Hurricane within the next 12 hours. Not alot of movement for the past 24 hours, and not really much motion expected for the next 24 hours. However, if i was in Bermuda right now i would be making my plans for an impact from Nate likely Thursday night - and likely to be a Hurricane.
TD 16 - seems to be struggling a bit looking at the visible imagery. however, recon found a closed circulation and reasonable wind field. Shear is the probelm at the moment, with the circulation centre located on the extreme southern edge of the convective activity. I dont think we will see much change overnight, and then possibly some slow strengthening on Wednesday. Given the organisation of the depression any motion will likely be erratic for at least the next 12 to 18 hours. However, after that a general north-northwest track should occur. This could be a very wet storm for parts of central and north Florida, and for Georgia too. Still too many uncertainties with this one at the moment though.
Regards
| DebbiePSL |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 10:23 PM |
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Re: Todays activity
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I am so confused! Where is TD16 positioned right now. Once I heard 90 miles east of WPB and then I heard 65 miles east of Melbourne .Still learning here, but seems to me if it is not moving it would still be around WPB???
| disneyfanfl |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 10:28 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast
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Given the uncertainty that discussions always mention, what is the likelihood that the storm would pass over or very near Jacksonville as the NHC has said over the last two advisories? Usually I put more stock into a forecast track that the NHC keeps repeating and we've had 2 so far. Now I see where good old Mr. Deegan is now saying possible 70-80mph winds?
I'm just wonder whether I should make a trip to get more water, batteries, etc.
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 10:31 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast
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During hurricane season, you should have your "hurricane store" of water, batteries and the like. If any of it gets depleted during the course of the season, replentish it ASAP.
Failure to do this is what causes rushes for goods during a hurricane, and people having none when a storm hits.
YMMV SPSFD
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 10:35 PM |
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Re: Todays activity
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Debbie:
From the NHC - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/062032.shtml
"AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT
25 MILES... 35 KM...NORTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
AND ABOUT 175 MILES... 280 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA."
| Hootowl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 10:40 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast
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Agreed. You should always have backup stock. We do during the rest of the year - but we also have a well. We have lost electric during thunderstorms and it can come in handy.
In looking at the latest sats and wv loops (remember to take this with a large grain of salt - I'm not a met - or even close!) looks like if something were to spin up out of the GOM it would be a few days away and probably head to Texas.
I can't get a good handle on TD16, can't see what would make it go so far north - unless Nate "pulls" it. I am thinking that if the GOM mess heads west then TD16 might turn into Florida sooner than currently shown. Just my thoughts on this - still trying to read how the systems interact.
Ya'll hang in there - it's wayyyyy to busy for me.
Hoot
| DebbiePSL |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 10:55 PM |
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Re: Todays activity
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Thanks Random as always I can depend on those of you here with much needed knowledge tracking these storms. I am still learning and so much of this stuff is way over my head.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 11:05 PM |
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Re: Todays activity
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is there any chance that td#16..aka-Ophelia could strengthen into a hurricane before hitting florida?
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 11:10 PM |
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Re: Todays activity
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Quote:
is there any chance that td#16..aka-Ophelia could strengthen into a hurricane before hitting florida?
Yep...it "could" but it isn't likely.
The model graphic shows 2 models bringing it to minimal Hurricane strength before landfall. http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity1.png
But on the other hand, look at the HUGE model divergence on track! Nearly 180 degree divergence!
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
==========
EDIT:
Has the NHC decided on a new time system than the 24 hour standard day? We've got a 50 PM sitting over on the main page for TD 16! In case NHC realizes their mistake and takes it down, I took the liberty of screenshoting it: http://www.vorklift.com/50pm.png
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 06 2005 11:22 PM |
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Re: Todays activity
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Quote:
But on the other hand, look at the HUGE model divergence on track! Nearly 180 degree divergence!
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
I don't like the BAMS or the GFDI models. Is the GFDI the same as the GFDL? It looks the same. I hate it
I'm afraid we may be looking at TD16 for several days off the FL coast. Eventually it will likely strengthen.
Update: It DOES like (on IR imagery) like it's moving NNW now...
| crpeavley |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 12:01 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast
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The 12Z and 18Z GFS runs are noteworthy...
GFS
These runs would be of particular interest to N. Fla and S. Georgia early next week.
|
MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 12:26 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast
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Dvorak numbers for the system are a bit up, and it's drifting slightly to the north now. It's going to hold depression status tonight I think, but will make a tropical storm Tomorrow.
I'm still not sold on a track yet, I'm hoping it'll move more north and east away from land.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 01:19 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast
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Ole Tim Degan, is he still surfing? Have not lived up in jax for almost eight years, still visit; but I have to admit that i have always been a George Winterling guy. Use to sit behind him at Florida State football games. Always knew if I had the right weather gear when he walked in. I'm guessing George is pretty retired by now. May have to see when I head up for the Jags game this weekend, assuming Degan is wrong. I am not sure I can see a system shooting in there. It just never happens at that angle from that direction. I am personally thinking the GFDL solution is a little closer to the target area. Not convinced that it does not turn out either, though. I just really have trouble seeing a hit in NE Florida on this storm.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 01:29 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast
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I just went to the NWS radar out of Miami and the long Range out of Melbourn. There seems either to be an outage or very little precipitation from this storm. Does anyone know why it is so scarce? Is the storm falling apart(maybe?)
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 01:40 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast
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I am going to be keeping a close eye on this storm for various reasons:
1) We are leaving on the autotrain out of Sanford on Thursday to go to D.C. I don't know what trains do when there is a TS or TD just off the coast. Anyone know?
2) My mother and my f-i-l will be here watching the kids for a week. The last thing they need to deal with is a problem storm, but I think I'm far enough to the west that it will be just a rain event.
3) We are taking one car and 5 motorcycles back from D.C. through NC, GA, and Florida. I sure hope this doesn't end up in the mountains. Argh! At this point, between glitches with the trip, a storm sitting off the EC of Florida and other things, I'm beginning to wonder if someone's trying to tell me something! Maybe I should not BE in D.C. on 9/11.
Someone can tell me to take a deep breath at anytime. Please. My nerves are shot.
I did hear Dr. Steve Lyons at 9:15pm or so say it's "drifting" to the NNW. Please keep going N....follow Nate and Maria!
| weatherwatcher2 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 01:41 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast
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Rasvar, can you please tell me what GFDL solution is? When I click on the link and go to potential vorticity I get a big red x. Thanks in advance!
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 01:47 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast
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Nate's up to 3.5 Dvorak rating from SSD. That's barely under hurricane strength. I'd expect it to stay a TS tonight and strengthen to a Hurricane by morning. GFDL is bringing him to a Category 3 within 3-4 days. That might be excessive...but then look at what Maria did. At least he looks like he'll stay out to sea.
As for 94L, it's Dvorak is also up, from 2.0 to 2.5. It's getting close to TS if it isn't already. We're not going to get another recon tonight so I doubt they will upgrade her to Ophelia yet. I don't trust any model that dissapates this system...so the GFDL track is out in my mind. It did the same thing with Katrina at times...dissipated her...and look what she did. I'm more inclined to go with the global models...CMC...GFS...NOGAPS...which all take 16 north along the coast and slowly strengthen her, bringing her into land somewhere between mid-Florida and the Outer Banks. Unfortunately the global models aren't good for intensity, and I've noticed that SHIPS has been running weak on intensity this year. My "guess" is that we'll have a Cat 1 hurricane out of Ophelia...but nothing more. Let's see how the models change now that we have a TD rather than a blob.
========
Weatherwatcher: GFDL is taking 16 SW then W, dissipating her before she reaches the coast of FL. Take a look at the "Late" products here for GFDL track: http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/ -- I don't know what's up with PSU's and FSU's TCGenisis sites...they seem to be broken a lot of the time this season.
--RC
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 01:53 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast
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For what its worth, the GFDL I saw brings the storm a little north and then slowly brings it across the state as a Tropical storm. Entering around Jupiter and exiting south of Tampa area. Near Sarasota. Then brings it into the Gulf. Not sure it will be as far south as the model has it. Maybe north of Orlando shooting across. not really easy to tell. Just hope the GFDL has the intensity right. I do not want another hurricane anywhere near anyone right now.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 01:55 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast
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Is it possible this depression could get into the Gulf? Also, what is that showing up on satellite in the gulf?
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 01:56 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast
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It's not the pages that are broken or bad, it's the GFDL output. The fine-mesh grids are only available for a subset of variables nowadays, not the full suite that used to be available. Sea level pressure is the main one and it always works; potential vorticity is usually not available or calculated. Note that the sites are only current to the data they get in, usually an issue on the national centers' side and not FSU/PSU.
There's nothing wrong with the radar imagery from Melbourne/Miami, either. The storm is far enough away from Miami's radar that the radar beam is overshooting most of the precipitation and not picking up on the low-level banding features quite as well. The Melbourne radar shows the structure better. Remember that this isn't a Katrina-like deep storm that will always show up well on radar; it's a weak storm that won't show up that well on radar due to the limitations Ed mentioned earlier today.
| weatherwatcher2 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 01:58 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast
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Thank You Randon Chaos! Its nice having all you pros here on this board! Your posts are very helpful. Thanks again..
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 02:07 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast
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0000utc early runs on TD16
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
Early-cycle intensity guidance
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity1.png
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 02:19 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast
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Quote:
Thank You Randon Chaos! Its nice having all you pros here on this board! Your posts are very helpful. Thanks again..
I don't consider myself a pro
- I just absorb what I learn/read. I've only been tracking tropical storms for about 3 years (though a physics degree helps...as does a strong background in math and a much longer term interest in weather and other dynamical natural systems).Re Storm Hunter: That track guidence is nuts. I can't tell where anything goes until about 3-4 days out!
Clark: As for the GFDL model, it isn't the missing parts that bother me...its the wrong names and such. Yesterday 93L GFDL at PSU was actually the 94L GFDL. 94L GFDL was the pressure part of the Maria GFDL. Maria was the vorticity part of the Maria GFDL. And FSU hadn't updated with any of the last 3 model runs for some reason. Is the data going onto NECP's FTP servers that erratic? Or is something else going on? Especially becuase the spagetti plot I link to at Colorado State has the latest runs of the GFDL track even though I can't always find the pressure model working anywhere. Really odd...
(I hate to take up a post this way...but it's been slow around here the last week...so I hope the mods don't mind
)
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 02:29 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast
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yeah i notice the cluster....but what i get from first look at those runs..... looks like the drift to the nnw is going to be much slower and that to me means a little stronger now.... maybe a strong TS or cat 1.... but those were just on 0000 utc spt 7 runs... have to see what next ones show.... i bet the 10pm adv. tonight will have a much larger "CONE" in forecast......and much slower track........ will see in few mintues
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 02:31 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast
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Quote:
0000utc early runs on TD16
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
Early-cycle intensity guidance
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity1.png
I have a one word response to the model tracks... and it's not suitable for the forum!
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 02:33 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS IT DRIFTS
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...NEW TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED...
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA....AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...27.4 N... 78.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 02:49 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast
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Didn't see PSU's output, but FSU's output for the same storms was correct -- I went and checked a few days ago when the issue cropped up. FSU has through the 18z runs of today's GFDL; the files needed to create the images are not made available until about 3.5hr after the actual time of the model run, with another 30 min-1 hr needed to run through all of the model products and create the images. NCEP did have some data server issues a week or so ago, while FSU had some network issues over the weekend; these temporary problems have been fixed, however.
The actual points for given storms are available much sooner from the NHC (see the Ohio State tropical sever for the text product), but the grids with the data are not. Products like GFDI and GFNI listed on that CSU model plot aren't really "new" runs of the GFDL or GFDN but are early-cycle "interpolated" runs based off of the previous (e.g. 00z interpolated models use the 18z model data with interpolation to the 00z location) model run. The late-cycle guidance, not available until some time after, is the actual true run of the model and what you see on the FSU & PSU sites.
| Catawba |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 03:14 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast
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From the 11:00 advisory....
Quote:
THE GFS AND UKMET SUGGEST THAT THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO FEED COOLER AIR INTO THE CYCLONE...AND SHOULD THAT HAPPEN IT COULD THROW A MONKEY WRENCH INTO THE CYCLONE STRUCTURE AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
Question about the above statement...how would this cooler air affect the depression? Is it more likely to allow convection and strengthening, or would it help dissipate it?
Thanks, MB
| dolfinatic |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 03:17 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast
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ok so after reading NHC discussion. basically if i am reading it right, is that they dont know where this one is going yet. I guess due to model guidance so spread apart. I dont think however that it will go in up at the NE Fl coast. Correct me if I am wrong but history is against a Ne Fl landfall. Any Met want to comment on that?
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 03:38 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast
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Thx Clark for the explaination.
-------
11pm TWO is out. They are still watching 92L for development, but they aren't expecting it.
Maria's down to a Tropical Storm.
Nate hasn't been upgraded yet, but I still expect it by morning.
16 hasn't been upgraded yet. By morning we will have a better idea of what she's doing. As for the cool air injection, tropical cyclones have a warm core. Extratropical cyclones have a cool core. I'm not sure whether a cool air injection would cause an cool core to form, but it's possible. If nothing else it might cause a hybrid system to develop over the near term..before it returns to a tropical characteristic. Others probably know better than I do what it would do
- it sounds like the NHC doesn't know what to do with 16...so they are sitting on it until morning when a different forcast team gets a shot
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 03:50 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast
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Noone really has a clue on where this is going. If the experts at the NHC have little confidence in their forecast, I think it is safe to say that anyone on this board would also be guessing. I find it odd that on the weather tonight, I watch Channel 9 News with Tom Terry, and he pretty much did not go into any real detail tonight. Normally he does an fairly detailed analysis. The graphic of the models appeared on the screen for seconds, and he barely discussed his thoughts. Was just very odd. Considering the advisory by the NHC and NWS stating that everyone in Central Florida should be watching this storm, and that models are so diverse, I would expect him to be telling people to at least be vigilant and alert. Nope, said just a rain maker and went on his way. So out of character for him..
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 04:05 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast
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I watched Tom Terry tonight, too, and I felt the same way you do. All they had up on the 5 day outlook was "Tropical Troubles".
I did notice that they slowed the track down a bit. In their disco they mentioned that shear is to supposed to relax for the next 12-24 (I think) and then come back into play again after that which would probably mean that it may mess up the storm a bit before/if it makes landfall. Also interesting was the talk about the cooler air injecting itself into the system.
Looks like they may have shifted the track to the right a tiny bit, but it's kinda hard to tell. It appears that until it starts moving, we're just going to have to watch it. (inject a "DUH" here).
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 04:41 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast
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About a NE Florida landfall: history is against it, but a number of other storms have made landfall there. A tropical depression a few years back was the most recent storm to do so. It's certainly not unprecedented.
With regards to the colder air: air temperatures over the southeast US and over the open waters (e.g. the Gulf Stream) are pretty warm, averaging in the mid-upper 80s. Tropical cyclones by definition have a warm-core, where temperatures in the center of the storm are warmer than those found outside of the storm; this is the case for TD 16, with warmer temperatures found by recon in the center of the storm than outside of it (about 1-2 deg C; the greater the differential, the stronger the storm...usually). I won't go into the discussion of how this occurs right now; maybe during the off-season in a series of mini-featurettes I've got planned.
Midlatitude systems -- those associated with cold fronts -- are generally cold-core by nature (though warm-core extratropical cyclones do exist). Their growth mechanisms differ from hurricanes -- again, a long topic for another day after the season -- but one of the things associated with these systems and one of the potential causes for storms to either develop in an extratropical fashion or undergo extratropical transition is a temperature gradient. With a cold air infusion from the midlatitudes, you set up a strong temperature gradient (either at the surface or aloft) between the environment of the tropical cyclone and the midlatitude environment, with some of this latter environment potentially encroaching upon the storm. It would not lead to tropical development; instead, it would either lead to the storm weakening or beginning to undergo extratropical transition (at least to the point of taking on more of a hybrid structure).
This changes what you can expect in terms of the wind field and precipitation distributions with the storm as the wind field expands outward and the precipitation distribution taking on more of an asymmetric (almost frontal-like) nature. Were this storm to undergo such an evolution, most of the weather may remain offshore given the preferential nature for this to occur on the east side of the storm; it is certainly not a given that this will occur, however. It's a tough forecast for this storm from all angles -- the spread in the models has that classic "squashed spider" movement that the NHC loves to split down the middle and take slowly, often with good results -- and everyone along the northern Gulf coast to the Carolinas needs to watch this one, just in case.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 05:26 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast
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After a dismall forecast and my 2nd error this season, Ill try to rebound. So far its moving faster then the models and the NHC have forecasted but I posted that would happen on another site. Remember the models overdid the weakness with Katrina and moved her over florida 1 day ahead of schedule when she was still a TS. Currently again TD16 is moving faster then they anticipated or is it? Well its not really,, its just relocating its vortex center on the southern edge of the blow up of storms. Ridging over Nate has forced that N movement....outside of him there would been nothing to move TD16. Anyways here is what should happen. TD 16 is getting sheared moreso then the models have shown due to what I said above, this should keep it somewhat disorganized for the next 12 hours. Later today ( Weds) she should make TS status. A general movement bend to the NW should happen as Nate gets pushed N and NE away from TD16 by a trough to its NW. As the trough digs down Thurs into Friday, expect a slow movement to the ENE then E near 30N for the tropical storm. Since she will be on the southern extent of the trough, expect her to be left behind as the trough moves most of its energy to the NE. Heights will rise along the east coast of the U.S. by this weekend and should steer the Tropical Storm back at first towards the wsw then w between Melbourne and Daytona over the weekend. She should become a hurricane by this weekend and could be a decent 1. After this weekend its too hard and far out to forecast. Florida- the Carolinas will probably have a landfall. Not too sure about a trough coming down off the eastern U.S. next week until Weds-Thurs but how strong and far S is the key.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 05:43 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast
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this may be off post...... not sure if anyone has posted this link..... check out nasa's Katrina web site.... with all the new and improved technology.... there is some amazing stuff here, and i could only wonder whats still being looked at before it's relased to the public....
http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingatearth/h2005_katrina.html
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 05:44 AM |
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Quick hit thoughts
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Thoughts on TD 16 & its future track posted to the blog. Think the NHC track is a pretty good one unless the system continues to "move"/reform further to the north, bringing about an increased likelihood of capture & recurvature very close to the coastline. Intensity forecast looks pretty good as well, but I think the intensification will come more in bursts than in a gradual strengthening. Might peak near or just above minimal hurricane intensity, but that's about all the interaction with land and the midlatitudes will allow.
Feature in the W. Gulf bears watching, but it needs time to stick around and spin-up something at the surface and I'm not convinced it has that time. It's a Texas/Mexico threat no matter what happens. Might warrant an invest in a day or so.
And as a final note on Katrina, the New Orleans radar came back up today as Slidell starts to rebuild and regain electricity. It's a nice beacon to see, I guess.
More as time permits, though I'll likely leave things to the others with a bit more time for the next day or so. Have a good night, all.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 06:18 AM |
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Re: Quick hit thoughts
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005
...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD
OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...
AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND
NOAA LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE
78.8 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES...185 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
CANAVERAL FLORIDA AND ABOUT 100 MILES... 160 KM... NORTH OF FREEPORT
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.
DATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...NOAA LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS
...AND NEARBY BUOYS INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40
MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A
DRIFTING BUOY JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED A SUSTAINED
WIND OF 38 MPH...AND NOAA BUOY 41010 WELL NORTH OF THE CENTER
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 33 MPH. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT STRONG
WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
ARE CURRENTLY DUE MORE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES THAN TO TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 06:20 AM |
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Re: Quick hit thoughts
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URNT12 KNHC 070615
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 07/0542Z
B. 27 DEG 51 MIN N
78 DEG 51 MIN W
C. NA
D. NA
E. NA
F. 047 DEG 42 KT
G. 330 DEG 54 NM
H. EXTRAP 1003 MB
I. 24 C/ 466 M
J. 27 C/ 495 M
K. 23 C/ 30 C
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134/1
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 0216A CYCLONE OB 03
MAX FL WIND 42 KT NW QUAD 0523Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT
POOR RADAR PRESENTATION
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 06:34 AM |
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Re: Quick hit thoughts
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not sure if you may be able to view this.... here's a look out of a one of the P-3's...(NOAA aircraft) at katrina's eye.... pretty picture... would est. plane is flying at or near 10,000ft. or lower... i think this may also be when the eye was 32nm wide....not sure what day or time.... but i would bet she is atleast a cat 4 in the picture.... the stadium effect is perfect and no high clouds are seen over the eye in the picture.....
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pages/katrina2005/Reye9.jpg
if you can't see the picture.....more information can be found here
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data2.html
| zacros |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 10:31 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast
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The latest track from the NHC is fairly ominous. Looks like we will be watching this one for a few days. Is there any evidence that once it makes the eastward turn, it will continue to loop around and come back toward Florida? I remember reading earlier that a strong ridge was forcast to build back over the area. That would certainly prevent any true northward movement of the storm. Between the storms this year and the new business, I believe what little hair I have remaining is going to fall out!
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 10:31 AM |
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Re: Quick hit thoughts
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Looking at Ophelia this morning I'm not liking what the models are doing to its track. It would be better just to slam it into FL before it has a chance to strengthen. Instead GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET are having it do a cyclonic loop. This matches with the NHC forcast track, sending it back towards FL in about 5 days as a Hurricane.
She has taken on the classic Comma shape so often seen on strong TS's and weak hurricanes. I wouldn't be surprised if the next Dvorak numbers saw her stronger. I'd guess she might be a 3 now, but I'm no expert
.GFDL still isn't handling the storm well. The model has been very consistant about taking her into FL and across into the gulf. Ophelia just doesn't seem to want to do that. Additionally it seems that GFDL isn't even strengthening Ophelia when she deserves to be strengthened (the last run doesn't bring her to TS strength until she's in the Gulf...yet Ophelia has reached it). It did the same thing with Katrina - failed to develop the storm correctly. I'm wondering if the GFDL just doesn't do well with Bahamas-area systems? It's done outstanding with almost everything else.
CMC is the nicest forcast. It takes Ophelia out to sea in Nate's wake. Unfortunately I don't see this one coming to pass anymore than the GFDL solution.
--RC
P.S. - now we have 50 AM over at NHC. Someone needs to realize that there aren't 50 hours in either the first half or the last half of a day
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 10:46 AM |
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Re: Quick hit thoughts
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Quote:
\
GFDL still isn't handling the storm well. The model has been very consistant about taking her into FL and across into the gulf. Ophelia just doesn't seem to want to do that. Additionally it seems that GFDL isn't even strengthening Ophelia when she deserves to be strengthened (the last run doesn't bring her to TS strength until she's in the Gulf...yet Ophelia has reached it). It did the same thing with Katrina - failed to develop the storm correctly. I'm wondering if the GFDL just doesn't do well with Bahamas-area systems? It's done outstanding with almost everything else.
CMC is the nicest forcast. It takes Ophelia out to sea in Nate's wake. Unfortunately I don't see this one coming to pass anymore than the GFDL solution.
Which model ended up "handling" Katrina the best? I didn't pay attention to that. Since Ophelia is north of Katrina's wake but in the same general area, the same model might be the one to favor... As long as it isn't GFDL or BAMM!
Update: It's just me I'm sure but I can almost imagine a right turn on the short and long ranger radar. Probably just the angle of the radar.
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 11:46 AM |
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Re: Quick hit thoughts
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"Which model ended up "handling" Katrina the best?"
I thought it was the GFDL..lol! May be wrong though. It's the one that had the sw movement. However, this storm is already north of where it has it coming in. I certainly hope it doesn't all of a sudden decide to move this way. The older kids are in school. Storms scare them anyway. Never the less and tropical one.
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 11:52 AM |
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Re: Quick hit thoughts
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New Thread Up
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 01:05 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast
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The feature in the Gulf, if anything happened with that would it be a south Texas threat? Also, what are the chances anything could
happen with that?
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 01:22 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Warnings Up Titusville to Jupiter Tropical Depression 16 Forms Off Florida Coast
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I posted a reply yesterday, and would like to re-post today about what "minimal" is or was stated. I believe once again, that forecasters drop the term "minimal" because of several factors.
Regardless of how strong or how weak a hurricane is, it is just that, a hurricane. We all know the NHC does not use that in their forecast, but do use the label quite often. A minimal hurricane can and will do detructive things and cause death and destruction. So what is minimal about that.
Also, when forecasters get on the air to report a possible tornado, they don't warn people that an F1, or F5 is coming their way. Regardless of the size, we all know the destructive capability a tornado can do, even if it's an F1 or F5. Obviously, an F5 will cause catastrophic damage as well as a CAT5. But lower on the scale are descriptions of what to expect with a storm by CAT or Fugita scale. I believe people get caught up in the strength of a patricular system, then they modify what they are going to do. If Katrina was a "minimal" hurricane when it hit FLA, and the lower keys, then why was there so much destruction and deaths caused by such a "minimal" storm. My thoughts are the more labels we add to a strom, people will and do nothing, to try to escape the storm that is approaching. Then why does the Weather Channel and Mets put out a warning that a tornado is coming, and to take shelter immediately, because they know the damage associated with it. Again, F1 or F5 CAT1 or CAT 5 doesn't make a difference to me, it is still a "HURRICANE".