MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 11:38 AM |
Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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7:30AM Update
Ophelia is still stationary off the east Central Florida Coastline, about 80 miles east of New Smyrna Beach and is expected, but not certain to, shove east and a bit north. Due to it being a little too close for comfort Volusia county schools have closed for the day.
The area is still under a Tropical Storm Warning, and a Hurricane Watch may be issued for parts of the coast later today. Take a look at the track models below for a good idea where it may go. Or in this case, we just don't know. The NHC's track is a best guess at this point, and they aren't even all that thrilled with it. So all of us along the Florida and Georgia coastlines will have to watch for any move this thing takes.
It has strengthened some overnight into a 60-65 MPH storm and may do so today even more, perhaps becoming a category 1 hurricane today. Overnight it flared up some, but this morning it has died back down a bit and has gotten more ragged looking, so this may keep it from gaining strength, at least in the short term.
Ophelia is still off our coastline. Most of the rainshower activity has been to the south, east, and north of the center of the storm. Still most likely it will move north and east, slowly, very slowly, and then eventually loop back around toward the west.
Some bands will make their way onshore today. With me personally having property right on the coast along New Smyrna Beach, you can be sure I'm watching this one very closely.
10:30PM Update
Tropical Storm Warnings now exist from Cocoa Beach to Flagler Beach, as Ophelia is about 90 miles east of New Smyrna Beach, still not moving at all since about 2PM this afternoon. It will continue to meaner for a bit, perhaps drifting north and looping around. It will need to be watched for a few more days, unfortunately.
More to come later.
Original Update
Tropical Storm Ophelia has formed east of Florida, Tropical Storm Warnings have been dropped south of Sebastian Inlet and now extend northward to Flagler Beach. The storm is moving slowly north and northwestward, and later on may loop just offshore of Florida.
This will keep Central Florida in the outer bands for a day or two. Beyond this, the highest chance is for it to move further away from the US, increasing to hurricane strength. There is some divergence in the models, some bring it back westward toward North Florida or Georgia, and most now move it out to sea.
Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com
Comments/Feedback on the maps lookhere.
Those in the area will want to keep watch on this one for any westward movement.
More to come soon.
Report conditions from Ophelia in your area In this thread
Katrina Discussions are in the Disaster Forum
Event Related Links
Radars, Satellite
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Jacksonville, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Spaghetti Style model plots from Colorado State University
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Video/Audio/Webcams
Daytona Beach Webcam (Streaming)
Daytona Beach Piercam
WESH TV 2 Daytona Beach Tower Cam
Emergency Management:
State of Florida - Floridadisaster.org
Brevard County
Flagler County
Indian River County
Volusia County
Other florida counties
Maria
Animated model plots of Maria
Nate
Animated model plots of Nate
Ophelia
Animated model plots of Ophelia
Google Map Plot of Ophelia
Floater IR Satellite of Ophelia
Floater WV Satellite of Ophelia
Floater Visible Satellite of Ophelia
| KornR |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 11:45 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Please help me understand the diff. between the model/plots.... The BAMM model is the one that caught my eye, what goes into this model that makes it so diff. than the others?
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 12:33 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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The GFDL model did not perform as well as I would expect. However, it is onyl a model and am very pleased to see Ophelia out in the ocean spinning some fish.
| Pamie |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 12:35 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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What chances does anyone think we have of Ophelia looping, turning into a hurricane an than hitting Florida? If I recall, isn't that what one of the storms last September did?
"Praying Ophelia just goes out to sea to hang out with Nate & Maria"
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 12:40 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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The GFDL model shows "O" coming into the Gulf. That could be very bad for the Gulf Coast. Still way to early for that call. They do not need another storm right now.
| Wingman51 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 12:50 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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That would have been "Jeanne" last yer - - A lot will depend on what happens with the 2 Highs currently stationed over the ATL east of GA and in the SE US around N GA.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 12:51 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Even though most models have it going out to sea, there are a couple that take it into the Gulf? Why the difference?
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 01:00 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Quote:
Even though most models have it going out to sea, there are a couple that take it into the Gulf? Why the difference?
According to the NHC it has to do with the ridging in the north.
SUGGESTS THAT THE
GFDL AND ECMWF MOELS ARE BUILDING TOO MUCH RIDGING TOO THE NORTH OF
OPHELIA.
However, the only models runs I can find only 2 send her out to sea. The rest either put her across Florida or doing a loop and coming back towards the coast. None show it far enough in the future to see wether or not it actually hits the coast though.
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 01:03 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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A number of things, the sterring currents aloft, the high pressure system to the north, with a divergence between the two systems could and I say could produce a system that gets kick out into the gulf. There were so many differences in tracks into Katrina, GFDL showed a more SW movement than any other models, that eventually came across FLA and into the lower keys, then out into the gulf. It's a guessing game right now, but I think forecastors are more perplexed more than ever, are cautiously watching this like a hawk.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 01:11 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Any possiblity the thing in the Gulf could develop? It would be good if Ophelia headed out to sea but if I lived in Florida I'd be ready,
just in case.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 01:39 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Ophelia's "most likely" to move out to sea, but that most likely is relative. It's not a sure thing by any bets, Georgia is a second best, followed shortly by Florida. All are within the cone and range of error. The models are still split, and will be useless while the storm isn't moving much east or west.
I'd go with the NHC track on this one.
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 01:44 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Interesting disco by the HPC:
"ECMWF RUNS ARE LIKELY TOO QUICK WITH ITS WWD TRACK.
HOWEVER ASSUMING THE TPC TRACK THRU DAY 5... WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE OPHELIA BEGIN TO DRIFT WWD BY DAYS 6-7 TUE-WED AS
THE ERN CONUS RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE N."
Are they hinting at a loop around and back to the coast somewhere next week?
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 01:48 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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the loop scenario from the other day is what's in play, i guess. most of the models have shifted that way and the nhc has a forecast track suggestive of it. doesn't look like ophelia will go onshore.. could get close to the st augustine area tomorrow... but during the weekend it should slide eastward on the base of a flat trough. ridge builds in over the top and should force an anticyclonic loop... and push the storm back to the coast next week. no idea what it'll look like then.. best bet is a low-end hurricane, based on climo. 'captured' storms of recent years include dennis in 1999 and jeanne in 2004... those probably illustrate the range of possibilities best. storm shouldn't have made its loop back until around the middle of next week, so plenty of time to watch it in the meanwhile.
nate will clip bermuda late tomorrow-early friday, maria is heading out.. none of the waves are looking particularly troublesome. the gulf feature isn't developing.. or at least should be onshore before it can do anything. models not showing a lot of activity, but continue tracking the 65w and 40w waves.. as well as the new emerging wave on the african coast.
HF 1348z07september
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 01:52 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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That is my take on that. I would not rule out the loop and a a more westerly track back towards the U.S.. The possibility is there, and is why forecasters are having a difficult time as well as the models. When a sysytem does not move much over time, how would the models move it if it doesn't have any input as to where the system could move.
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 02:05 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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HF,
We only have 6 more names left for 11 more weeks of this hurricane season, do you anticipate the names being used for next year this year?
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 02:08 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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After this list is exhausted, they go to the Greek alphabet (Alpha, Beta, etc)
2006's list will remain untouched.
| Cane Watcher |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 02:09 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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I believe they go to alpha, beta, etc.. after the names are used up.
| TheElNino |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 02:12 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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The models that take Ophelia north and then out to sea do that because they are biased in weakening the ridge too much. The northern motion of Ophelia the past 24 hours has been a result of the center reforming to the north. (there were two circulation centers yesterday). Now that they've merged a track to the west or west-southwest should begin. Latest satellite loops suggest this is already taking place. Ophelia will make landfall late tomorrow near Cape Carnaveral as a Category 1 hurricane. After weakening Ophelia will enter the Gulf and may threaten the Central Gulf coast.
Satellite Loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 02:14 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Cape Canaveral, eh? Looks like it'd be Volusia or further north from here.
/Palm Bay
//South of the storm either way, but would prefer that she go much further North and find her way out to sea
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 02:22 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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why the sudden turn can anyone tell me why its turning andif its not any threat to land anymore,that would be nice.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 02:29 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Dont look at Sat Obs unless you are looking at water vapor to see whats the flow in the atmosphere. Also dont rely on any 1 model cause they change from run to run and especially system to system. If you want to find a center outside of recon..radar and vis sat data are best. Never look for movement on infrered. Current thinking is that the NHC movement is alittle too slow, should make it further out to sea then 79.5W(4) days out, maybe 75W. Then a curl back to the wsw and w by sunday-monday.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 02:30 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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I disagree with this statement of the direction of the system...the long range radar loop from Melbourne shows a slow NNW drift...the infrared picture represented could be showing the movement of the cloud tops and an expansion of the system...but the LLC is abreast of Caneveral and seems to be slowly moving to the NNW as stated...as per the radar representation.
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 02:31 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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As we don't want to say it, the "Gulf" is a potential as you describe it. But the thinking of the Mets as well as the NHC don't want to even to start that conversation, but in reality, it might have to soon.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 02:38 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Ophelia:
I'm looking at the models, both intensity and track, and the sat image. Here are my opinions - don't take them as fact - I'm not a pro
Ridge to the north appears to be building. This will force Ophelia to stay south, looping it like the GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET models show. CMC overweakens the ridge, allowing Ophelia to pass through. I don't see this happening.
Ophelia is showing signs that it is going to strengthen beyond SHIPS guidence. It is already a Dvorak 3.0 - that's just below hurricane strength. Based on this it seems all intensity models are low. GFDL...never even makes Ophelia a TS...clearly wrong. GFDI, GFTI, and GFNI keep Ophelia a TS for 3-4 days before strengthening her to a Cat 2 hurricane in a day...also doesn't seem likely based on what Ophelia has already done. SHIPS and related models bring Ophelia up to a hurricane Cat 1 quickly, but then plateau her and slowly weaken her. While this is possible, given the SSTs and the Sat view, as long as she stay's out to sea I don't see why Ophelia won't grow stronger than Cat 1.
The track is very important to intensity. If Ophelia does this loop that is forcast, it keeps her over warm water longer. The ridge that is forcing the loop is WNW to ESE, which is keeping Ophelia from swinging out to sea, and forcing her south. GFS long term (from NECP's site) takes Ophelia into the Georgia coast and back out over the FL panhandle...the latter point weakened probably to a TD before coming back in over Louisiana. I'm thinking the impact point will be a little further south...into Florida as a Cat 2, and the crossing angle WSW. From there, given a week to allow SSTs to recover from the cooling caused by Katrina, we could see Ophelia reach the gulf as TS and strengthen back to a weak hurricane before swinging north around the ridge after 2+ days.
Lets hope GFDL is correct and weakens this thing. I don't see it happening.
============================
GFDL:
Someone asked about the GFDL and Katrina in the last thread. GFDL was very good on the track and intensity of Katrina only after Katrina became a Hurricane. Before that GFDL just kept insisting on dissipating Katrina, and gave tracks that were widely disparate and erroneous. Becuase of these track issues before Katrina became a hurricane, the southward jog before the Florida landfall was dismissed.
Basically, GFDL seems to need a well established system to build a good track and intensity for. A TS that has been so for at least a day, or a Hurricane. When a system is developing this close to land and this quickly, GFDL often never gets the chance to lock onto it.
GFDL is based on the AVN run from 6 hours before the GFDL comes out (as I recall) combined with biasing information to allow it to lock onto the current storm center. Becuase of this, fast developing systems, like both Katrina was and Ophelia is, are hard for the GFDL to get a good understanding of.
--RC
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 02:48 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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I don't buy into the fact that any model might weaken Ophelia, but to strengthen it. Possible hurricane strength by the 5PM advisory. Considering it is stronger now than predicted, the DV"s are higher now than they have ever been, so when the next RECON investigates, possibly, we might indeed have a much larger system, if it meanders over those warm gulf waters.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 02:50 PM |
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TS Ophelia, Hurricane Nate, and Hurricane Maria
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The Force: That's my fear as well.
-----
We now have Hurricane Nate and Maria is back to Hurricane Maria.
Ophelia...NHC still has no clue what she's going to do. They state that at the end of the 2nd paragraph in the 11am discussion! Wow.
--RC
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 02:53 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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I agree. Ophelia has strengthened more and faster than anticipated. Since last night it has gone from 30-50 mph winds. I would expect 55 mph winds at the 2pm and then very close to if not hurr winds at the 5 pm with the new recon data. I hate to say this but, it would be better for everyone if this thing would just go ahead and come on in. Much less time to strengthen over the next few days. IMHO
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 02:54 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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LOL, it wont become a hurricane unless something dramatic happens in the next 6 hours. It still doesnt have a well defined center. Its a broad (but getting better organized) low with vortexs rotating still around it. Until we can find a tighter center....pressure under 990mb then it might become a hurricane. Probably not until tomorrow or at the earliest 11pm tonight.
| jaxmike |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 03:00 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Just read the 11AM discussion on this thing. Is it just me, or was that a really long way of saying "we really don't know right now"?
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 03:02 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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My take as well. It states that everyone on the East coast should monitor the storm. Well "DUH" do you think!!!
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 03:09 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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The official forecast:
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD DRIFT BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT OPHELIA WILL LIKELY MEANDER JUST OFF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTS FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
Anyone buying into this?
| Chris Bryant |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 03:11 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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I really like the "cone of uncertainty" for Ophelia- it is a near perfect circle
.I, too would rather it just came on in- though not on a path to the gulf.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 03:20 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Ophelia looks good on radar: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/mlb_N0Z_lp.shtml
I think Cat 1 by 5pm is a bit fast...but by 11pm is possible. Definately by morning. Ophelia is quickly getting her act together.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 03:21 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Well I am watching this one down here very closely.If it makes that loop,and heads wsw,We could be in trouble down here in South Florida.Of course we all remember Jeanne.Anyone think this storm could be a threat to my neck of the woods?
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 03:29 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Well, with the steering currents the way they are right now it doesn't appear that Ophelia will be going anywhere anytime soon. She's drifted just north of Canaveral, and the winds here in Ormond Beach have shifted from NE to N. The waters where she's currently located are warm enough to warrant some strengthening, though she's still about 40mi east of the gulf stream. Like the NHC alluded to, it's going to be a waiting game of sorts to see how the trough and ridge interact, and how strong/organized Ophelia is when it occurs. Right now I'm preparing for some decent winds and rain. I've eyed a few tree limbs that look a bit suspect, and will be getting trimmed after work, weather permitted.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 03:29 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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So if it meanders...well, a lot can change in five days. Anyone think this might head into the Gulf eventually?
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 03:31 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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The banding features are starting to fill in on the NW/ and Southern side. If you notice at 11:20 of that loop, you will start to see banding coming in from the SE/Northern sides as well. I expect a much stronger storm by the 2PM update.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 03:32 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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What about the cloudiness and low over the Gulf? They said, development, in any were to occur, would be slow. What
is the chance this could develop?
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 03:32 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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someone mentioned looping, and that is actually what the NOGAPS is forecasting at the moment, moving Ophelia south and then towards Vero; the UKMET is forecasting a loop off of NE Florida then moving it towards GA/SC border area
| native |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 03:32 PM |
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!
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Um...in a word...NO! (in response to Force's question about anyone buying into it)
RC & Force - I hope your worst fears are just that...fears and not reality.
Time will tell...right now she's basically meandering out there so she's tricky to track/forecast/predict right now. I know NHC as well as others must be throwing their hands in air and rolling their eyes on this one. I for one am scratching my head. I do think however that she's getting her act together a touch quicker than originally anticipated.
My best guess (emphasis on guess) is this:
1.) She will be a hurricane come the end of the weekend. I'll stab at borderline CAT 1/2. (Conditions (at least for now, support this)
2.) I do not think she'll make it further north than 31/32N nor will she go east much past 75W before coming around again. (With lack of any real steering currents to speak of, I just don't see her getting that much further north before being forced eastward)
3.) I think if/when she makes it back around it'll be south of the Space Coast. (This ofcourse will depend upon that ridge...how strong, how south & east, etc.)
NewWatcher - I couldn't agree more....I'd gladly take one on chin from her now to prevent the threat she'll pose later.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 03:34 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Doubt it will ever get as far South as Ft Lauderdale.
It's very unusual for a storm to move that much SW although, it has happened in the past.
I hate to see Ophelia move so slowly which gives it time to get it's act together.
I think a FL/GA area landfall is a good possibility.
Everyone needs to monitor the storm. NHC basicly has said, they're not too sure of it's
ultimate path.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 03:36 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Eventually is a long way off, nobody knows what this thing is gonna do tomorrow....
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 03:39 PM |
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Re: GFDL
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The 06Z GFDL does make Ophelia a cat 2 hurricane once it moves into the Gulf of Mexico, which is the first time with this system that it takes it above tropical depression strength. The forecast track in the 06Z GFDL still has the system approaching an area by 126 hours that REALLY does not need another one of these right now.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 03:40 PM |
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Re: !
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I hope so too. I don't want this thing getting strong.
----
Thunderbird - I just saw that. GFDL Nate on PSU is showing Ophelia instead...while Ophelia is blank. I wish PSU would fix this problem
. I find it hard to see how Ophelia will strengthen while overland like the GFDL is forcasting.Rabbit - GFS is also looping the system. With three global models doing it...and all three reliable models...I think the looping is likely. The question is:
- How close to shore will it be when the looping starts?
- How far south with the looping push it?
- How will the ridge effect the system's strength?
If the system is nearer shore when the looping starts, interaction with shore will weaken the system.
If the system is pushed less southward during the loop (the ridge weakens or doesn't move as fast to the south as GFS is showing), than it will be over land for an extended period of time, probably enough to dissipate it.
If the ridge brings shear over the storm, it doesn't matter how strong Ophelia is, it will weaken. That is what the NHC is thinking now. With a weakening, sheared storm hitting land, the system could mostly dissipate before reaching the gulf.
Let us hope that any one of these cases is true...and Ophelia never makes it to the GoM.
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 03:42 PM |
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Re: !
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Everyone must remember that Katrina came across FLA at a slow pace, and in fact, really didn't lose her vortex while over land, though she did come down to a tropical storm, but as soon as it entered the Gulf, well, we all know the story. What am I saying! Even if the storm does come in on FLA like ervyone hopes before strengthening, what is there to stop her from re-developing in the Gulf if this was the case. Absolutely nothing in her way.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 03:43 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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I am interested in the cloudiness associated with an upper-level low and a weak surface low that is in the Gulf.
NHC said development, if any, would be slow to occur. What are the chances for development? I know all eyes are on Ophelia at
the moment but if anyone could give me an explanation of this I would appreciate it.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 03:48 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Quote:
I am interested in the cloudiness associated with an upper-level low and a weak surface low that is in the Gulf. NHC said development, if any, would be slow to occur. What are the chances for development? I know all eyes are on Ophelia at the moment but if anyone could give me an explanation of this I would appreciate it.
Tropical systems develop from lower level lows. For one to develop from an upper level low, that upper level low first has to spawn a lower level low. This is why the chances are low - such spawning isn't common except on very strong upper level systems, and even then it is rare.
| abyrd |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 03:51 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Here's my thoughts.
Looking at the Water Vapor image:
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNatio...mp;prodnav=none
I don't see anything in the United States that would push Ophelia out to sea.
I do see a ridge of high pressure building to the north of the storm, although it is not a very strong ridge.
Based on that, Ophelia will turn slowly to the west in the next 24 hrs, strenghten to a strong cat 1 and come in somewhere between Daytona & Jacksonville, and move slowly across the state, following the bottom of the high pressure.
Let me know your thoughts.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 03:53 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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here are my thoughts anyone from SC-FL should watch Ophelia, if she goes up to SC she will have some more time to strenghten, what do people think?
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 04:03 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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The GFDL is a little off already, so I'm not so sure much to put stock in that.
In any case anyone along from Central Florida to Georgia and South Carolina will need to watch Ophelia over the next few days. Track forecasts are notoriously bad when looping occurs.
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 04:08 PM |
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What if?
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Whereas Katrina didn't lose much intensity because she went over the Everglades, Ophelia would likely come into "proper" Florida terrain. Yes, many storms that hit FL restrengthen in the gulf, but at least as many (if not more) make landfall in FL and never exit until they are spat back out into the Atlantic - and farther up the coast.
When there is low confidence in the path, there's no reason to discuss if she hits the GOM - she hasn't made any indication of hitting land yet. Look at the extrap - to become a GOM event, she'd have to go W or SW right now - ain't gonna happen (we hope)
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 04:10 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Looking at the Melbourne radar, this thing is starting to look impressive. Their certainly isn't any movement going on. If I was on the east coast, the shutters would be out. Way to close for comfort. Things are wrapping up around the center, and I am sure it is strengthening.
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 04:12 PM |
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Re: What if?
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The predictions that were out on Katrina, said that she was not going to move S/W like she did. Everyone should go to Skeetobite and look at all the projected paths of Katrina, they moved about every 6 hours or so. So, just because a model says this, and another says that, there are always situations where storms never behave like they are modeled to do.
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 04:13 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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We're in Melbourne. It's already slightly north of us. Odds are we're safe unless it makes a loop right? In other words we should have several days?
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 04:14 PM |
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Re: What if?
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Just curious, has anybody heard JB's take on this one. The accuweather track sees to be a bit up in the air as well.
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 04:17 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Hello,
I'm thinking that it might be making a jog to the West.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
Activate the Tropical Frcast points
Zoom in a couple of clicks, inbetween the gap of the two forcast points there looks like a center moving towards the west.
Thoughts...
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 04:19 PM |
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Re: What if?
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JB is taking the west across the state track. Beyond that, I don't want to consider. I am watching this one. Would like to see a turn out to sea. Just really don't know.
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 04:20 PM |
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Re: What if?
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Here is what ACCUWEATHER is saying about "O"
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurrica...;imagetype=move
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 04:20 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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I would not say safe for melbourne. With the way the steering currents are, I think any place close is iffy. Just keep an eye and ear out.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 04:21 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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I'm waiting for the 12Z GFDL (about 4 hours away...plus however long it takes to get published...). It should be much more accurate for this storm. I believe the AVN model that the GFDL uses as a spawn this time will be the first AVN run seeded after Ophelia became a TS. This will make the GFDL more reliable.
As for a southward jog...don't count it out. This thing is moving so slowly it could go any direction.
As for Melbourne radar, it is starting to form the eastern edge of a central circulation now. This thing looks stronger than a TS on radar. It looks to be trying to form an eye. That normally isn't seen until strong cat 2. I don't think it is anywhere near that strong, but it says to me that the storm is more organized than we thought.
--RC
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 04:23 PM |
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Re: What if?
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From ACCUWEATHER:
The bottom line is that the future movement of Ophelia is very uncertain and all interests along the southeast U.S. coast - and even the Gulf coast - should monitor the progress of Ophelia.
| BWH |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 04:23 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Quote:
Hello,
I'm thinking that it might be making a jog to the West.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
Activate the Tropical Frcast points
Zoom in a couple of clicks, inbetween the gap of the two forcast points there looks like a center moving towards the west.
Thoughts...
Melbourne radar also looks like more of a Western Drift to me. Eyewall also looks like it is getting wrapped and ready to strengthen.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 04:27 PM |
Re: What if?
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Hey Rasvar, what (where) is the path across Florida JB is taking? Across Daytona, the cape, Ft. Pierce. Is he going with a loop or straight across? Seems that the center of circulation isn't moving much, but shear seems to be increasing again from the east. Wonder if the shear will increase and disrupt the system. I personally don't see this system cutting across across Florida south of 28N. I've never seen that happen since I've been here. Then again there were no hurricanes til '95
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 04:27 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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I would not be surprised when the RECON gets out in there to find a rapidly deeping storm with perhaps a CAT 1 by the 5PM update.
| pryord1 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 04:30 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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No doubt about it- it is tracking much more to the west now than to the north. I expect a SW track before the day is over.
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 04:32 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Looked at a couple different images/maps, and the "center" appears to be just north of the Volusia/Brevard county line. I would say somewhere in between Shiloh and Oak Hill, and off the coast a good number of miles, though on radar it does seem to have drifted west a bit. Still looking disorganized, with a lot of rain/squalls sort of floating off to the east.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 04:38 PM |
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Re: What if?
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SteveH1, Accuweather (JB) is predicting a slow westward drift across the state from landfall at Daytona Beach west across to Cedar Key and into the GOM.
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurrica...ve&partner=
| Reaper |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 04:44 PM |
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Re: What if?
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Nate can now see where he's going...
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 04:45 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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The Force......plz give out reasons why you feel Ophelia will do what you think. For 1 its not going to be a hurricane very soon, also Katrina was forecasted to move that SW direction,,,they just didnt know where it would turn that way to cross florida. We all like to hear what others think but we need reasons, links to models that show it, WaterVapor ideas seeing where it will go that way, etc....
This is actually for anyone as we dont need to to alarm people after what katrina did. Many are really scared. For now most models agree Ophelia will be a slow mover. Most 12z want to take her out to sea then curve her back somewhat near 75W and 31N by the weekend. Right now it looks like in the near term she will move closer to Daytona giving them gusty TS force winds. She will move closer due to the ridge over Nate moving away and ridging to her NNE ahead of the trough over the great lakes region. She should then be push by this trough away from Florida but we are not sure of this as of yet. The troughs energy should be taken NE by the weekend ( via most global models) as ridging builds in off the east coast early next week. If she is around 75W by Saturday still then she will probably feel this ridge and move back towards the states from Florida-Carolinas. For the near term its a wait and see.
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 04:46 PM |
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Re: What if?
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When are we due for the next recon??? Can anyone explain why Accuwether changed their path so dramatically this AM.. When I saw it early today they had it going towards GA?
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 04:48 PM |
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Link to Bouy
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http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41009
20NM from Cape Canaveral:
Wind Direction (WDIR): NNW ( 330 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 25.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 29.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 8.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 6.1 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.81 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.00 in ( Steady )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.5 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.3 °F
120NM from Cape Canaveral
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41010
Wind Direction (WDIR): SSE ( 160 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 25.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 29.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 10.8 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 10 sec
Average Period (APD): 6.1 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.78 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.01 in ( Steady )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.9 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.7 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 78.3 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 93.0 °F
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 04:49 PM |
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Re: What if?
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OK, I got it...thanks. So they don't see a loop involved, just a slow trek across north-central Florida. Odd path. The 12Z GFS just keeps her off the Florida coast then NE, then east , then stall again. The posisitive side of this is that this inhibits other storms from forming during this time (peak) period. Basically its buying time while just meandering these systems. Not a progresive (East to west) pattern.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 04:50 PM |
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Re: What if?
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couple hours,, latest pressure was at 999mb, they said poor looking radar obs but that has improved over the last 2 hours. Might be up to 60mph by 5pm if the pressure drops a couple more.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 04:52 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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The apparent eye on the radar is pretty small and it wouldn't be surprising to see it break down at some point. The storm is obviously developing an inner core, though.
The 12Z GFS basically does not move the system at all for 48 hours, then begins to move it out to sea, but then slowly loops it back beginning at about 108 hours and finally brushes it up against Cape Hatteras at about 252 hours. That is just one model solution of many, but the bottom line seems to be that this could be around for awhile and be a pain to forecast.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 04:53 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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12:30pm Vortex: [ http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/URNT12.KNHC ]
273
URNT12 KNHC 071658
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 07/1627Z
B. 28 DEG 44 MIN N
79 DEG 23 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1426 M
D. 40 KT
E. 045 DEG 50 NM
F. 123 DEG 40 KT
G. 042 DEG 57 NM
H. 998 MB
I. 21 C/ 1523 M
J. 23 C/ 1527 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. POORLY DEFINED
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 0316A OPHELIA OB 09
MAX FL WIND 40 KT NE QUAD 1607Z
10:50am Vortex for comparison:
000
URNT12 KNHC 071515
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 07/1450Z
B. 28 DEG 47 MIN N
79 DEG 23 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1437 M
D. 35 KT
E. 315 DEG 60 NM
F. 029 DEG 40 KT
G. 290 DEG 10 NM
H. 999 MB
I. 23 C/ 1514 M
J. 24 C/ 1520 M
K. 18 C/ NA
L. POORLY DEFINED
M. NA
N. 134/8
O. 1/2 NM
P. NOAA2 0316A OPHELIA OB 03
MAX FL WIND 40 KT NW QUAD 1439Z
| Wingman51 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 05:10 PM |
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And so it Begins
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WINTER PARK, Fla. -- In Orange County, Tropical Storm Ophelia's outer bands brought heavy rains that already collapsed a roof on a building at the corner of Fairbanks and Orange in Winter Park.
The Department of Transportation blocked off a lane on Fairbanks due to the collapse. Engineers were concerned the wall might collapse and debris could fall on the road. People in the building next-door were also worried the damaged building could affect their businesses, as well.
Full content of copyrighted article removed, excerpts are fine, link to full articles if available
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 05:24 PM |
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Re: And so it Begins
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The Devorak loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-bd-loop.html
you can see the center of the storm drifiting West
Radar:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kmlb.shtml
looks stationary
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 05:38 PM |
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Re: And so it Begins
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#1 above post TS's don't have a eye they have a center but there is no eye of a TS...#2 you are not seeing the center move but the bands around it the center fix from the NHC shows it still nnw to nw.
Per the 2PM the winds are 50 MPH and Stationary or just about.
Per the 2pm
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 05:39 PM |
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Re: Katrina/Ophelia
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This system is no Katrina which had a very persistent and vigorous vortex all the way across under hostile conditions (TD 10/dissapated; TD 12/Katrina). This one is very much an infant by that comparison.
BUT the radar presentation shows an improving structure all the time...the center is now ringed with convection and shower activity is increasing on the east and southeast side. It seems to want to tap into the GOM side with a feeder band across Florida. In General this is a strengthening system...
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 05:46 PM |
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EXCUSE ME
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I don't see where I claimed there was and eye.
I said "center"
Thank you
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 05:47 PM |
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Re: Katrina/Ophelia
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BTW the new GDFL which took it across florida and into the gulf does not do that anymore as it takes it into georgia then ALA via north East Florida around Jacksonville then into Georgia.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 05:49 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Quote:
The apparent eye on the radar is pretty small and it wouldn't be surprising to see it break down at some point. The storm is obviously developing an inner core, though.
The 12Z GFS basically does not move the system at all for 48 hours, then begins to move it out to sea, but then slowly loops it back beginning at about 108 hours and finally brushes it up against Cape Hatteras at about 252 hours. That is just one model solution of many, but the bottom line seems to be that this could be around for awhile and be a pain to forecast.
it was this post...sorry another post came in before i made it so this is the post i was talking about.
But it is not drifting west.What you are seeing is the bands not the center which is not moving or if it is at all its drifting nnw or nw.
Again it was the other post i was talking about as in a eye they only are found in canes.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 05:51 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Thanks for the explanation. Our local meterologist said it should bring rain to Mexico and south Texas but no tropical
development.
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 06:06 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Well, to be specific, at 11:00 she was at 28.8 N/79.3W! Now she is 28.8N/79.4W! That's point 1 west isn't it? Most likely that's what some were talking about.
| Reaper |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 06:08 PM |
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Re: Katrina/Ophelia
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ralph,
Please provide a link to the GFDL run that you are referring to.
As the latest one that I looked at, being the 0600 run, still takes it across the state and up towards MS/AL...
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 06:09 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Not really but anyway the center could reform over and over in different spots but that would not be the movement.The storm has a broad center and they casn relocate it many times.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 06:12 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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I referred to it as the "apparent" eye because I was not willing to describe it as a true eye. I'm not sure that there really is a scientific definition of an "eye", but weaker systems will have an eye-like feature on radar before they develop an eye that is visible from satellite imagery. Eyes (i.e. a relatively calm region at the center of the storm) don't spontaneously form when the system becomes a hurricane.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 06:12 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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.1 or .2 this way or that isnt a real movement unless its continues over a 12hr period at least. You know what ralph ment.
Anyways you can also see the GFDL path on wunderground.com/tropical ......The model I like is usually the Nogaps but currently the 12z Ukmet (kinda simular run with the Nogaps) is my best option for the path it might take.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 06:16 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Melbourne Radar shows a good center.
Melb Radar
| native |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 06:53 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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It'll be interesting to see what the GFDL does on it's next run. All but the GFDL now have that eventual NE loop senario (to some degree).
www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200516_model.html
| NewWatcher |
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| Wed Sep 07 2005 07:16 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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12z GFDL cat 2 up the coast in near jax still not with the rest
| MadDog |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 07:38 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Quote:
Please help me understand the diff. between the model/plots.... The BAMM model is the one that caught my eye, what goes into this model that makes it so diff. than the others?
This post came in this a.m. and I have been looking for the answer ever since. Probably about a month ago, HankFrank or Clarke or MikeC or someone else WAY SMARTER THAN ME answered this question eloquently (and somewhat longwindedly), but I can't find the post to pass it on. Does anyone else know where this post is?
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 07:45 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Here you go Maddog: This was from Clark;
MissBecky -- the BAM series of models only take into account the steering flow and the Beta drift (related to Coriolis) of the storm. That's pretty much it, making them somewhat limited. The BAMM takes into account the middle levels as those steering the storm, the BAMD most of the atmospheric, and the BAMS (often not used) just the low levels.
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 07:49 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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I also found this explanation:The BAM-series models take the GFS analysis & forecasts and computer trajectories from the storm's initial position out to 120hr. The BAMS uses the 850-700mb layer, the BAMM 850-400mb, and BAMD the 850-200mb layer, with a small correction for the Beta effect (due to Coriolis; generally <2kt in forward motion towards the northwest). Note that the GFS has been consistent in decoupling the low-level and upper-level circulations of Franklin since its inception, taking the surface features to the north and east while meandering the upper-level features back to the west and southwest.
The two BAM-series models we've been seeing are the BAMM and BAMD, neither of which include the lowest levels to any large degree in their forecasts. Thus, their forecasts are largely going to be a representation of what the GFS views as the mid & upper-level steering pattern. Given what I noted above, it's not too much of a surprise to see them steer the storm more towards the west and towards land. This suggests that the GFS has either too strong a ridge, too weak a shortwave trough, or some combination thereof. No matter the forecast, the GFS solution is a rather dubious one for Franklin (unless you believe the storm will become sheared apart and fizzle out through time, which wouldn't be a bad thing necessarily), making the BAMD and BAMM solutions rather dubious at best themselves.
You can't entirely discount all of the forecasts, but I'd rather go with a model that represents the storm better -- such as the NOGAPS or even our MM5 (which uses the GFS initial conditions to start the model, but diverges completely from there) -- when making a forecast. Both of those models -- and most of the others -- agree on taking it north and then northeast, with varying degrees of speed through time.
| Unregistered User |
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| Wed Sep 07 2005 07:53 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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This link (article) may give you an overall better understanding of weather models.
Forecasters rely on computer models (USATODAY) Article
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 07:58 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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I suspect the storm won't gain much strength in the short term, I see some shear coming in from the east, which is going to keep the storm inhibited on the east (and a bit on the southern side as well...)
It's just wobbling right now, no real movement. And I still can't see any real movement to the north ...
-Mark
| Myles |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 08:01 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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The center has become exposed from under the CDO on visable sat. Looks like shear from the east to west may help hinder development. I certainly dont think will be a hurricane anytime soon if the shear continues. We'll have to wait and see.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 08:04 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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the met. on channel 2 news said the nice wether up here in the northeast causes everything to spin down there, and also that the nice weather with bring a system up here and hitt he northeast..i am not making this up im just asking can this be true..becuase they said like the system gets stuck in the high pressure. But he said one of the ones out there and i dontt hink Ophelia is what hes tlakign about so idk..im a little confused.
| jaxmike |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 08:13 PM |
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~1600 Eastern Recon Data
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Estimates winds at 50kts at the surface and that the pressure continues its fall, down to 996.
| disneyfanfl |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 08:37 PM |
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Joe Bastardi's forecast
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I don't want to dredge up another JB vs. NHC discussion (I agree with each one at different times), but I find it intersting that he still thinks it'll cross Florida into the Gulf - especially since he lowered the path to the south. I have yet to see any model support for this nor anyone here discussing it. I wondered if anyone else had any thoughts on this. Of course, there's isn't really model support for anything at this point. I figure a north Florida hit or the loop that all the other models see.
Boy, I hope the latest GFDL doesn't come to fruition! YIKES!
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 08:43 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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There has been a very intense flare-up of convection on the west-side of the system in the last hour or so. This will probably lead to some further intensification, though how much depends on how far the convection can wrap around the center. It may also lead to some wobbling of the center, though I suppose it already has been wobbling to begin with.
| Missers |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 08:44 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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I just wanted to say the 5:00 dicussion is a hoot. I can see them pulling out their hair at the NHC.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 08:51 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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I picture a whole bunch of people at the NHC looking at a computer screen scratching their heads and trying to figure out who is the best writter in the group.
The weather in Boca has been great today for the first time in 5 days.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 08:57 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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LOL... Many of them do not have hair !!! Guess we are in for some more gloomy days of rain and rain showers. 5 days yuck !! The good news is that it doesnt seem like its been able to get rid of the shear, but seems fiesty never the less. Guess we will just have to wait. I am glad so far it seems like the "CITY OF LOUISIANA" is doing a little better.
| G8trgrad |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 09:00 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Hi, I am new to posting but I have been using this site since last year.
Can someone explain how different Ophelia is from last year's Hurricane Jean....if I remember correctly Jean also looped back because of a blocking ridge to her north.
Thanks
| pryord1 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 09:00 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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MadDog,
Tried your link to the USA article about the computer models but it said "object not found". I'd love to see this link- would you mind verifying it and posting it again? Thanks!
| pryord1 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 09:07 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Quote:
MadDog,
Tried your link to the USA article about the computer models but it said "object not found". I'd love to see this link- would you mind verifying it and posting it again? Thanks!
Actually, this was supposed to be directed to JohnC. Sorry- I'm still trying to learn my way around the site!
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 09:10 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Sure does look alot better over the last hour and radar shows the NW side of the center trying to wrap around but it is still fighting some moderate shear .
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellit...&duration=4
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 09:12 PM |
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Re: Joe Bastardi's forecast
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Disneyfanfl, JB had it coming into Daytona then into the NE GOM. Where does he put it now, if you don't mind?? BTW, the shear has lessened quite a bit, and deep convection is blowing up near the center. Basically still stationary.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 09:16 PM |
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Re: Joe Bastardi's forecast
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As a side note, the NHC has dropped the TS Warning south of Cocoa Beach, which I knew they would do, but weird since it went north .1 since the last advisory. Must mean they don't think it will loop
| Black Pearl |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 09:30 PM |
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Re: Joe Bastardi's forecast
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Quote:This is not the time for him to get one right.
Disneyfanfl, JB had it coming into Daytona then into the NE GOM. Where does he put it now, if you don't mind??
Accuweather
| pryord1 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 09:48 PM |
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Re: Joe Bastardi's forecast
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Boy, Black Pearl, you ain't kiddin'! That doesn't look good at all. I like NHC's forecast much better, but it might not be realistic. Let them scratch their heads for awhile- as long as the overall model consensus stays true. Just hoping....
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 09:50 PM |
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Re: Joe Bastardi's forecast
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Quote:
As a side note, the NHC has dropped the TS Warning south of Cocoa Beach, which I knew they would do, but weird since it went north .1 since the last advisory. Must mean they don't think it will loop
They dropped it because a TS warning means that Tropical Storm conditions are expected within 24 hours. Since it is meandering north, TS conditions are no longer expected within 24 hours, for areas south of Cocoa Beach.
They spelled out that anything can happen in their latest discussion, but they don't believe anything to mean any trend southward.
| MadDog |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 10:01 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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The post listed does work. It shows a "404 Object Not Found" code, but if you scroll down, all the information on the subject and the subsequent links are still valid.
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/wmodels.htm
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 10:07 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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all volusia county schools closed tommorrow!
| pryord1 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 10:11 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Thanks, MadDog- you were correct. I guess I didn't have the patience to scroll down and find out for myself!
| KornR |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 10:44 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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This is new to me (old to lots of u ppl I assume). I like the way it lets you visualize the relation of what is coming towards the coast vs away... speed shown.
Any comments on what to read from this would be great...
Interesting product from NWS, shows relative velocity of ??? from Melbourne
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 10:50 PM |
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Re: Joe Bastardi's forecast
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Quote:
Quote:This is not the time for him to get one right.
Disneyfanfl, JB had it coming into Daytona then into the NE GOM. Where does he put it now, if you don't mind??
I have just lost all remaining respect I had for Accuweather. That's bonkers!!!
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 10:50 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Quote:
Interesting product from NWS, shows relative velocity of ??? from Melbourne
NEXRAD Relative Velocity has been one of those things that NWS has had for a long time but hasn't published. You've always been able to get it through Intellicast. There are a lot of other radar products that are available to Mets that aren't available to us...I wish sites would make more of that available
========
I'm disliking Ophelia. There is just too little to push it this way or that. It's a watcher...a watcher way too close to the coast.
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 11:13 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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What in the He** is going on with Accuweather...I go to there site and they have Ophelia hitting Mobile AL on Tuesday afternoon!!!!!!!!!!! What basis for this, or are they trying to get some headlines by scaring the Gulf Coast? I was planning a business trip Monday but this just makes things difficult, especially when the local Pcola station subscribes to Accuweather! Thank goodness Santa Rosa County voted to go "wet" last night for the first time since 1927, I need a drink!!!
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 11:18 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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The last model to suggest something like the Accuweather forecast was the 06Z GFDL (and it was an outlier). The 12Z GFDL was much further north and the other 12Z models forecasted some sort of cyclonic loop with no landfall anywhere.
The 18Z GFS actually takes Ophelia right out to sea (no loop back towards the coast) beginning in about 24 hours. It would be nice if that verifies.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 11:21 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Quote:
The last model to suggest something like the Accuweather forecast was the 06Z GFDL (and it was an outlier). The 12Z GFDL was much further north and the other 12Z models forecasted some sort of cyclonic loop with no landfall anywhere.
The 18Z GFS actually takes Ophelia right out to sea (no loop back towards the coast) beginning in about 24 hours. It would be nice if that verifies.
You know it's not gonna happen, though. I wouldn't be surprised if we were still asking ourselves "Where the *** is Ophelia going to go?" next Tuesday.
Update: MLB radar now shows 3/4 of an eyewall forming... all it's missing is the east side ... and that is even starting to "fill in" if you will. We could have Hurricane Ophelia by sunrise, I think.
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 11:33 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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The basin is very active right now, obviously. I am a bit concerned about Ophelia given that I am in Central Florida. I am not overly concerned, however.
I have a question for the experts: I see Maria's track. Has a tropical system ever actually made landfall in Greenland or Iceland?
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 11:43 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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I was checking out a few things, and noticed that over the last 15hrs Ophelia has drifted just a bit more north than west(1degN/.6degW). This might not seem very significant, but the further north she travels, the more of an impact the trough should have on her. Something to keep an eye on for sure, and it's interesting to see Mike Seidel of TWC broadcasting from a beach approach where I sometimes surf.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 11:50 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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The 18Z GFDL drifts the storm slightly to the WSW through 36 hours, then drifts the storm NNE until about 72 hours, then has it take an abrupt left turn and head west to near Jacksonville at about 90 hours.
| DebbiePSL |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 07 2005 11:51 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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the met I was watching said it would drift north possibly ne if it moved at all. He was using viper radar so I don't know how much fact is there.
the weather channel just said it could possibly be as far north as JAX by Monday and move NE or NW sounds like they are still confused
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 12:07 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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8 pm interesting says it is intensifying, pressure dropped 2 more mb to 994 but the winds are still at 50, i doubt it.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 12:10 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Quote:
8 pm interesting says it is intensifying, pressure dropped 2 more mb to 994 but the winds are still at 50, i doubt it.
You doubt what? That the storm is intensifying or that the winds are 50?
| Anton Ross |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 12:22 AM |
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TS in Iceland
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When I was a kid and my father was stationed in Keflavik (Iceland) we had a storm come up the first year we were there...1978.
I had totally forgotten the name, but remembered the storm being something strange. Dad reminded me that it was "Hope."
We had a crazy summer that year in Iceland...our midnight babeball games were sometimes played in 50 degree temps, and then a few nights later in snow.
Iceland was THE coolest place to be a kid, though. I was there 4-6th grade.
WX patterns were COMPLETELY whacked, though, since we had the Gulf Stream circling us.
Good times.
/Anton
| damnedcat |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 12:25 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Gosh, a mass call just went out from Volusia County School Board. Volusia County Schools will be closed tomorrow in expectation of high winds.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 12:30 AM |
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Wave Off Africa
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the wave coming off africa looks pretty inpresive now, we'll have to wait and see if it goes northward or southward, southward, we have to watch it, obviously.
| VolusiaMike |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 12:36 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Volusia County schools are faced with the same delimna that everyone else on the East Coast is facing. Can you imagine having a bus load of kids injured because a wind gust blew the bus from the road?!?
Most of the EOC's in this area on "stand by" mode. We outfitted ours today and can activate within 45 minutes, but conditions in the area right now don't require any activation. Hopefully, we learned something from the aburp shift of Hurricane Charley last year. "Be ready and don't let your guard down."
Volusia County is opening one shelter tomorrow. It will be at the County Fair Grounds and will actually be three shelters in one - persons with special needs, general population and pet facilities. The west side of the County has been dealing with flooding for weeks and can not handle any more rain at all. A very strong squall just passed over my house about 1.5 miles west of the coast, heading for the west side of the County.
Michael
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 12:40 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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i meant i find it hard to believe that the pressure can drop that much without a wind change, i doubt the winds are still 50
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 12:44 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Quote:
i meant i find it hard to believe that the pressure can drop that much without a wind change, i doubt the winds are still 50
Why is that hard to believe ? Katrina did the same thing just last week
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 12:45 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Quote:
i meant i find it hard to believe that the pressure can drop that much without a wind change, i doubt the winds are still 50
Pressure often drops in advance of a wind increase. In fact, the latest Vortex recon from about 8pm shows the pressure drop to 994mb and a FL wind drop to 42kt, down 8kt from the 5pm recon. I would expect a wind increase before the next recon based on the pressure falls.
HCW - Using Katrina doesn't help explain anything - she didn't do anything by the book.
Katrina had a pressure fall and eyewall expansion at the same time at one point. That should not be possible under normal hurricane growth.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 12:47 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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ok either i am not understanding u 2 or u 2 are not understanding me, i was saying i thought the winds would be higher with the pressure drop. maybe i am wrong.... it happens all the time, just ask my husband lol
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 12:51 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Ok...let me see if I can explain
---
Pressure fall leads to a wind increase. This wind increase can be after the pressure fall by a couple of hours.
The alternative is the central wind field can expand. This would leave the wind speeds the same or lower with a pressure drop. It can indicate a growing storm.
As someone mentioned a good analogy, think of a figure skater pulling their arms in. They go faster. That's what happens when an eye contracts. Now a pressure fall is the equivilent of spinning faster without changing your arms. If you let your arms out, it can return you your old rotational (ie wind) speed, but it expands the area within which you see that wind.
Does that help?
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 01:06 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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The supplementary vortex message issued after the recon fix indicates a flight level wind of 54 knots in the SE quadrant. I believe the strongest winds were found in the SE quadrant by the last plane, too. Based on how the system is structured, that is not what you would expect, since the most intense convection is to the west.
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 01:10 AM |
Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Doesn't seem kind of weird that this thing is now stationary off the coast? I mean if it stops, like it has basicly been all day, that means it could take a totaly different trak. Now since Volusia county schools are closed tomorrow it makes me a little more nervous
| MadDog |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 01:15 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Just think, It is Wednesday and if Ophelia just spins out there until Monday or Tuesday, do you think Volusia County schools will be closed Thurs, Fri, Mon, Tues ... This could be awful.
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 01:22 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Yeah, either closed due to winds or closed do to flooding and we know how much of that we have around here.
| VG |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 02:02 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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#104 Published Wednesday September 7, 2005 at 9:30 pm EDT
http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm
As weather forecasting is still an inexact science, this not for profit weather discussion is not for use in lieu of official sources, is not for protection of life or property, is for educational purposes only and is subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.
Once again sorry for the recent silence as I had been in the moving mode from Plant City to a newly purchased house in Lakeland since Sunday August 27th. Only now have I recovered from the ordeal.
At the 8:00 pm EDT NHC/TPC advisory T.S. Ophelia continues to be quasi-stationary. She has a sustained wind of 50 mph, is at position 28.8 deg. N 79.3 deg. W, with a minimum barometric pressure of 29.35" a slight fall since 5:00 pm EDT.
Looking at latest NWS Melbourne, FL NEXRAD radar as well as IR and WV satellite imagery, she continues to get better organized, with convection wrapping around the center of circulation. However she also continues to suffer from just enough southerly wind shear so that most convection is absent in the south and east quadrants. It appears that wind shear will increase with time so I doubt that she will reach CAT 1 hurricane strength in the near term. But as she is over very warm water anything is possible.
Where is she headed? Well quite simply it's totally impossible to accurately forecast a stationary tropical cyclone and as usual the models are quite useless. Eventually a mid latitude shortwave trough will swing by to the north and give Ophelia a tug to the N-NE. But how much of a tug will be determined by the strength and position of the trough. I think the trough will pull her N-NE but not pick her up and send her out to sea. Then we will see high pressure ridging develop to the north and that will swing her around in a clockwise looping motion and head back for the east coast of Central Florida as a CAT 1 hurricane, much like Jeanne. But once again this is no more than educated speculation at this time.
Hurricane Maria is only a threat to shipping and Hurricane Nate will brush Bermuda and then head for the shipping lanes too. There are several other tropical disturbances currently in the Cape Verde wave train and as usual will have to be monitored.
I've had no opportunity to comment on the horrific tragedy that unfolded in LA, MS and AL last week with Katrina. I had made a prediction of 10,000+ fatalities and it appears that it may come to fruition. Personally very soon I'm going to travel to AL and MS and hand out food, clothing and $$$ to victims. One very serious lesson that needs to be learned is that you can never depend on government to protect you and take care of you.
| duck13 |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 02:02 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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NWS/HPC forecasts Ophelia to head WSW into Florida on Days 6 (Tue) and 7 (Wed) according to their MRF discussion:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.shtml
| PFSThunder |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 02:08 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Talk about sitting and spinning in one place all day. Its like I never left the computer except it now has a closed eye according to the attached radar link out of Melbourne.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/mlb_N0Z_lp.shtml
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 02:10 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Quote:
NWS/HPC forecasts Ophelia to head WSW into Florida on Days 6 (Tue) and 7 (Wed) according to their MRF discussion:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.shtml
I don't like those images. Change them, please
Actually it's not that far-fetched unfortunately.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 02:22 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Has Ophelia started to be affected by the gulf stream and is it still as warm as it was when Katrina was getting her act together?
I had a dream several years back about a hurricane going in to Jacksonville and heading south through Tampa Bay. This was after Andrew and before Floyd that I dreamed this. In the dream politics was blamed for a great deal of death and destruction. I am not saying that any of this is going to happen, it is just a dream that stayed with me all these years. It looks like from some of the model plots that it is coming true and the politics could either be the current ones regarding Katrina or more for Florida. I am so hoping that my dream world is just composed of too much publicity and is totally bogus. On the other hand, if the experts that you trust start telling you to get out or to evacuate. Please do. I am not sure if the country could stand more death and destruction in this year.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 02:36 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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not much change.... pressure up a mb?
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...28.9 N... 79.3 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB
| disneyfanfl |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 02:44 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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It's interesting to hear that Volusia County is closing schools due to high winds, as we in Jacksonville ponder upcoming decisions. I'd hate to be in charge of the school board or anyone making decisions now. Ophelia is supposed to be thisclose off of our coast, it looks like you could swim out to it. I mean, how do plan for that? At 75 miles one little wobble is all it takes. I suspect we wouldn't know until the last minute if it's going to head closer.
Darn confusing storm!
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 03:02 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Well, the pressure going up is a good sign. If Ophelia has been sitting and spinning in the same area for almost an entire day, she has to be pulling some of the heat out of that water .... "upwelling" is the technical term for that, I believe. She cannot keep feeding on the same waters forever.
I just so Joe B. on FNC. He's okay sometimes, but I really hate the "everyone pat me on the back" stuff and then he said that Ophelia could go anywhere. DUH.
Footnote: I will be leaving town tomorrow for a week. I fully expect to come back and welcome Ophelia. ;-)
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 03:02 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Quote:
Has Ophelia started to be affected by the gulf stream and is it still as warm as it was when Katrina was getting her act together?
Currently the Gulf Stream is about 41mi off of Canaveral and 61mi off of Ponce Inlet. Ophelia is located about 85mi offshore. If she drifts cloers though she could pull in more warm water from the GS.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 03:04 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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From the latest recon:
"EYEWALL IRREGULAR IN SHAPE AND THICKNESS, 80 PERCENT COVERAGE"
It's getting organized! Just 3 hours ago recon didn't report an eye (though it could be seen forming on radar).
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/URNT12.KNHC
| wulrich |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 03:56 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Looks like some interesting going's on with Ophelia.
I do notice that the eye has sort of re-organized and is now further west than before, atleast via the Melbourne Radar.
Who knows what this storm is going to do!
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 05:01 AM |
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nothing much to add
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ophelia isn't quite as strong as i'd guessed it would be, and isn't quite as far to the west either. shouldn't affect the idea of an anticyclonic loop off northeast florida over the weekend. i think it'll go further east than the official, but nothing nutty like the long eastward jaunt the gfs is advertising... it's over-recurvature bias has taken over again. i'm not very sure what will come back to the coast next week. it may still be an off-balance, modest tropical storm, or maybe it'll go jeanne on us under the ridge. the window for its return i'll leave between daytona and charleston.. the big empty quarter that strong hurricanes have generally avoided in the last century (although further back in time this was not the case).
don't see a whole lot going on elsewhere. nate and maria are going out.. nate is going wide of bermuda. wave in the central caribbean is now hard to identify, and shouldn't perk up for days. mess in the gulf is going to be onshore before it can do anything. the big/sharp upper trough that was near 50w has split, with an upper low moving westward near 55w. still pretty much guarantees it'll chop up waves coming in from the east... that big envelope wave near 40w looks to be first to go. the new wave off africa is low latitude and has little model support. lots of dry saharan air down there, keeping the deep tropics relatively stable for now. gfs shows it getting a little livelier late next week. will see.
HF 0456z08september
| DougBaker |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 05:32 AM |
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Re: nothing much to add
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Wow, the cone of uncertainty is a circle.
Is this unusual for a tropical storm to just sit and spin?
I have not followed these storms for that long. Is this rare or just uncommon?
I am glad is not closer to the coast or stronger. A slow moving storm can be bad, but one that does not move at all
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 07:26 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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just lookin at melb. radar it has moved wsw in the last hour or so. getting better organized.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 08:23 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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meto...get some sleep,,, your seeing wobbles.
| LadyStorm |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 09:29 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty
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Now this is different??? I am confused. The NHC has Ophelia meandering just off of the coast of North Florida for the next several days. I was surfing the net and checking out the accuweather site. They offer a completely different path. Check this out:
http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-st...0&article=7
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 10:09 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Radar is now showing a SSE movement over the last hour.
On a storm this stationary, every little wobble is an overall movement for the hour. This thing isn't doing anything useful...
*returns to glueing his eyes to the radar screen*
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 10:12 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Is that blob in the BOC anything that I should keep a close eye on ?
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 10:15 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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I thought I saw that too. It amazes me to see where this thing is and they lifted our warnings and watches, (we're south of cocoa beach). I hope they're right but sending the kids to school makes me nervous.
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 10:17 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Quote:
Is that blob in the BOC anything that I should keep a close eye on ?
Yikes... another nightowl blob watcher!
Someone else is watching it now too..
Quote:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 080928
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2005
...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS MORNING...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
Guess we'll pull out the ol Bear Watch...
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 10:32 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty
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Quote:Accuweather has not had a good track record recently. Only one (as far as I can tell) of the models suggest the possibility of going directly west into the gulf. I feel there is no support for their solution. Ophilia is in a col, kind of a dip between several high pressure areas with no real desire to move. Any movement will likely be sllightly north, maybe east, maybe a loop, but not likely directly west per Accuweather. Whatever happens will likely NOT be very fast.
Now this is different??? I am confused. The NHC has Ophelia meandering just off of the coast of North Florida for the next several days. I was surfing the net and checking out the accuweather site. They offer a completely different path.
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 10:35 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Yea, your right. What if the storm wobbles to the west south west and gets a little more organized this morning and gets closer to our coast. My daughter takes a bus from Indiatlantic to Cocoa Beach Junior Senior High School every day. She said don`t worry about storm, its nothing like what we went through last year yet. That right there shows me that these coastal kids might not show it , but they sure keep an eye on whats shakin out in the Atlantic.........Weatherchef
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 10:45 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Forms off Florida East Coast
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Well so far it appears our Ophelia is doing the same thing as she did in Hamlet. Standing around ringing her hands and weeping but not making decisions to do anything else. (in this case could be good)
Having said that, does anyone know of any warm water eddies she might get into that could make her angry? Is the Gulf stream cooler now that Kat has stirred things up in the Gulf?
| abyrd |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 10:52 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty
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I'm not discounting the accuweather idea.
Looking at the water vapor loop, there is a ridge that is from the Atlantic Ocean to Texas. It starts curving NE just north and east of where Ophelia is located.
The NHC and the models called for a drift in a north direction (NNW, NW, NE, NNE have been mentioned at one time or another) However, the storm has not drifted north at all. In fact, it is SW of it's position (barely) of 24 hrs ago.
Unless it starts drifting or moving north, at least 75-100 miles north, it will miss the push to the NE and then will be pushed into FLorida. And this morning, it looks to be drifting in a southerly direction.
I'm not an expert, but just my thoughts. I would agree with Accuweather on this one.
| JustMe |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 11:18 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty
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It does seem to be closer to the east coast from what I am hearing. Will keep an eye on this one for sure.
I feel for the folks that have come to Florida to escape the gulf coast area. I would think any type of storm would be hard to deal with at this time. Just the name HURRICANE would do it for me if I were one of them.
I am going to watch this one and not agree with anyone at this time as to where it is going. I think we all know they have minds of their own and will do their own thing in their own way.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 11:24 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty
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I noticed that the NRL plot on this O storm looks llike a ball of yarn that my kitten just got through playing with. It takes good vision to follow the lines!! It is overcast here and windy. This is the middle of the central most part of the Flordia peninsula. Ophelia is going to go down as the big O for sure.
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 11:46 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty
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I noticed that when I woke up this morning that the storm was "70 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA."
Overall movement in 12 hours:
.4N .6 W
She's drunken I tell you!
<figure of speach>
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 11:51 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty
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I know, it's nuts. Funny thing is when I got up and checked this a.m. she actually looks closer to me then when I went to bed. Go figure. Crazy storm. Warnings have been lifted and the weather is far worse now then when we had them...lol!
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 11:59 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty
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8:00am numbers are in:
AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR ABOUT
70 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.
Put another dink in the W column
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 12:01 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty
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Ophelia looks a little ill on satellite pictures this morning, though the radar appearance is somewhat more symmetrical. It appears the shear may have lessened somewhat, but there is some very dry air just to the north of the system.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 12:02 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty
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Quote:
I know, it's nuts. Funny thing is when I got up and checked this a.m. she actually looks closer to me then when I went to bed. Go figure. Crazy storm. Warnings have been lifted and the weather is far worse now then when we had them...lol!
Looking at the water vapor and IR loops, it looks like the storm has weakened substantially in the last several hours, with the "secondary ball" actually looking better than the primary one. Yet the winds have increased to 60 and the pressure stablized a < 990 (989 currently although it got down to 985 overnight). Dry air intruding? Looks like a lot of dry air north of the storm on the water vapor loop. Maybe it'll fizzle out after all.
ETA: yeah, Thunder... the radar actually looks MUCH BETTER but the satellite WORSE.... what is it with this storm???
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 12:08 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty
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With tropical weather, no one in their right mind will totally discount any possibility and given the proximity of the storm to the east coast, it is prudent to make plans for the worst case scenerio. However, one also needs to plan for what is most likely. The closeness of the storm to the coast amplifies all of the effects of even small wobbles so it is likely that East Central Florida *will* see significant effects from Ophilia. I just don't feel the Accuweather solution is very llikely, not impossible, just unlikely. More likely is continued wobbles alternately bringing the center close to shore and then away from shore and covering N and S movement as well. Overall, the track will probably tend N over the next day or so, with wobbles back to the SW, SE, NE adnausium. For the sake of those in the gulf area, I hope this is the solution, not the one proposed by Accuweather..
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 12:18 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty
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This is for anyone. I wonder how much upwelling can occur with a developing storm like this, I guess the Gulf Stream will just keep pumping warm water under it.
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 12:29 PM |
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Is the "EYE" Forming?
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First look at the radar Presentation:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kmlb.shtml
Sure looks like she is filling in the blanks.
Then look at the last couple of frames of the visible loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
What do you think
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 12:33 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty
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Looks like Accuweather changed it's tune. Now it's going north.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 12:56 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty
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I am concerned about the area over the Bay of Campeche. Any chance this could organize and if so were would it go?
Also, is it my imagination, or is Ophelia looking ragged?
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 01:01 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty
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Ophelia is more ragged right now, you can tell by looking at water vapor or IR satellite loops that it flared up overnight and died down this morning, but seems to be rebuilding again now. In the meantime the center has gotten more ragged and some dry air in the east and west sections of the center have affected it. I'm hoping this will hold off strengthening today. It's still too close to comfort for me, and at this point wobbles can mean a lot.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 01:06 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty
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What about the area in the Bay of Campeche? What are the chances that could form into something tropical?
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 01:12 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty
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Quote:
What about the area in the Bay of Campeche? What are the chances that could form into something tropical?
I haven't had the chance to look at that, someone else might know more. A quick glance seems like it would take a few days for anything to happen there. I'm not a met so please don't take my word for things.
| pcola |
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| Thu Sep 08 2005 01:15 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty
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As to the Bay of Campeche, local weather here in Pcola says it could develope but it will be slowly and they expect it to head into Mexico, and they are not considering it a threat
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 01:20 PM |
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BOC Activity
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per accuweather, a tropical wave along 94 west south of 21 north has a broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche. A large upper-level low over the western Gulf is venting the southern Gulf and central Gulf causing enhanced clouds and thunderstorms. As the upper-level low moves southwestward, the area of low pressure in the southern Bay of Campeche might become an organized tropical system in a couple of days.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 01:31 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty
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What can any of us say about these forcast tracs? Nothing unless we know the science that goes into those models, and I certainly don't.
But I do know that the WV suggests the ridge is pushing hard toward the SE coast, and that coupled with the relative weakness of the system will not allow for much movement, more or less northward movement..
As for the storm's appearance...it is not able to grab much energy producing moisture from its SE quardrant as these things want to do as there is none there..it has to pull what it has in from the SW over the GOM, and that is inhibited by that large ULL...so I don't see much increase in intensity today, although some convective pockets are showing up on the visible.
It is possible if the storm does not ramp up a bit it could actually be pushed south a bit by what I see in the ridge pushing down to the SE today...that of course is very unscientific speculation...but we'll see I guess!
| MadDog |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 01:51 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty
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Where do I go to read about what causes the ridges to form so '' rigidly"? That puppy doesn't look like it is going anywhere.
| MLB Pilot |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 01:53 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty
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Am I crazy, or does the MLB radar (@ 1341Z) show convection wrapping around what seems to be a center located a bit more to the south (like due E of MLB)?
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 01:57 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty
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more like due east of titusville cape area i think
| MLB Pilot |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 02:01 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty
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Quote:
more like due east of titusville cape area i think
Could be. I think there has been a little jog to the S/SW, but who knows with this thing, and I am not an expert.
Either way, we both need to keep an eye on this thing.
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 02:03 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty
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I've been watching the I.R. loop for a little while, and the "piece" off to the NE looks like it's trying to pull off/away from Ophelia. There have been flare-ups here and there, but she's still not looking very organized.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 02:04 PM |
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Re: BOC Activity
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Thanks for the information. Since it looks like it might head into Mexico if something develops then Texas won't need to worry.
I have been watching it, however, and it does look like a possibility it could develop into something.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 02:15 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty
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Looks like another sub-vortex has spun up inside the broad center of the storm, based on the radar. There isn't as much shear evident as there was yesterday, so the storm may have a better chance to intensify more with each new burst of convection (like the one that is flaring up now).
There are also some 64+ knot wind speeds at beam height showing up on the radial velocity from the Melbourne radar in the last couple of frames. If that persists, the wind speeds with the system will likely have to be taken up a notch in the next advisory.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 02:29 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty
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Ophelia looks to be going through a little spurt of trying to better organize. Still looks like it is going nowhere. Due east of the Cape right now.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 02:33 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty
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We should really watch the pressure to see if there is true intensification...much of the wind speed could be influenced by a deepening gradient between the high and the cyclone without actual lowering of the pressure..by all stretches at 989mb, it could already be at 74kt but it isn't because it is struggling to build convection in relatively dry air.
I think the pulling of the NE quardrant away by the easterlies is very significant not only in the loss of energy, but could signal the actualization of the logic of the Accuweather forecast from yesterday which suggested that the llc would split off and move west..
that can still happen...much of the model guidance I can see for the loop was based on more northward movement by now which has not happened...
As I see it this vortex was caused by an"eddy' in the atmosphere, and that eddy is still stuck..the longer it does not move the more chance for a westward solution in my opinion...
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 02:34 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty
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Per 11am all the same as before no movement and same winds just a update of 5am
The future track has a NE movement per 5 days. after 3 days it starts the loop.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200516.html
| lawgator |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 02:41 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty
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Question for the prognosticators: The five day forecast track has Ophelia geting a little northeast and then starting a loop back to the south, not all that far from where she is now. After that period (and I realize the track itself is highly uncertain), what is the long-term thinking? I confess an inability to read the maps for the NW and Midwest U.S. so I don't know whether to expect a ridge to build in and force it back to the west or for a front to come through, pick her up, and sail her off to the deep Atlantic. Thoughts on that?
Also, I understand that SSTs go down in the wake of big storms and affect storms coming shortly after them. Is there any chance that stationary churning by Ophelia will lower the SSTs under her? Its a middling T.S. now -- is that enough to impact the SSTs and, also is the flow of the Gulf Stream going to keep the SSTs warm just because of where she has parked?
Thanks folks.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 02:46 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Ophelia Uncertainty
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5 day forcasts from the NHC have large errors anything beyound 5 days is a GUESS you may not agree with me some of you but it is.
There is noway beyound a guess since the NHC does not even go past that since systems change each day so to say in 7 days it will go here or there is just a guess.
My guess past 5 days? ....Watch it see what it does that is my guess.