MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Sep 11 2005 04:13 AM |
Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again
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8:45AM Update
Ophelia is still stationary, looking rather poor on satellite at the moment, but holding its own for now. It's still set for a glancing blow or perhaps more of a hit on the Eastern coast of Carolina, and there still remains a pretty good chance it will go out to sea.
If it makes landfall it will be at category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm strength.
More to come as needed.
7:30AM Update
The forecast track for Ophelia has changed again, as well as intensity forecasts, for the better mostly. As this increases the chances for Ophelia to remain out to sea. The forecast track, however, still takes it over the outer banks, but the general trend has been northward over time. With slow moving systems, persistant trends are vital.
This means South Carolia is less likely to see a direct impact, North Carolina more likely (on the outer banks only, and chances are improving for an out to sea scenario (Which I still lean toward - mostly because of climatology and the elongation to the east shown on water vapor, however there is still plenty to keep the system more where it is so don't take that as gospel right now.).
Intensity wise, Ophelia has been taking shear and upwelling caused by the general slow motion of the system, and there just isn't anything around to make that change over the next few days. It may weaken, fluctuate, but I don't expect to see it gain strength.
Beyond Ophelia, it's suprisingly quiet in the Atlantic, a few disturbed areas, but nothing really to write about at the moment. If Ophelia were gone now it would be a great day in the Tropics.
Original Update
Hurricane Ophelia has stalled once again, this time the forecast track is set for North Carolina, showing how uncertain the track has been for the past few days.
There still are plenty of uncertanties with the current lack of motion, all areas in the cone will need to watch the system.
Hurricane watches are still up from the Savannah River to Cape Lookout in North Carolina.
Strength wise, Ophelia has managed to stay just over hurricane strength, but shear has kept it from growing stronger.
Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com
Comments/Feedback on the maps look here.
Apologies for the brevity of updates over the last few days, I've been extremely busy with family issues. Hopefully soon more information will return.
Report conditions from Ophelia in your area In this thread
Katrina Discussions are in the Disaster Forum
Event Related Links
Radars, Satellite
Charleston, SC Long Range Radar
Wilmington, NC Long Range Radar
Morehead City, NC Long Range Radar
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Spaghetti Style model plots from Colorado State University
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations)
Charleston, SC
Emergency Management:
State of Florida - Floridadisaster.org
Georgia Emergency Management
South Carolina Emergency Management
Ophelia
Animated model plots of Ophelia
Google Map Plot of Ophelia
Floater IR Satellite of Ophelia
Floater WV Satellite of Ophelia
Floater Visible Satellite of Ophelia
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 11 2005 01:42 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again
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Hopefully she doesn't strengthen fast that would be horrible. Ophelia may not be the east coast's Katrina and thank good for that. Is there anything else in the basin that would be worth watching?
(usually you'll find answers to this type of question in the Storm Forum)
| bigpapi |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 11 2005 02:01 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again
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Just noticed that the 06ooz models look like they are trending back south a bit. Could this be due to the stall and the building ridge? Anyway, a clear blue day with gusty winds here in Myrtle Beach. The winds are pretty strong due to the pressure gradient.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 11 2005 02:54 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again
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Quote:
Just noticed that the 06ooz models look like they are trending back south a bit. Could this be due to the stall and the building ridge? Anyway, a clear blue day with gusty winds here in Myrtle Beach. The winds are pretty strong due to the pressure gradient.
The models are all over the place yet again with Ophelia. If recent history is any indication, that means the storm is going nowhere. The 1200z models have a lot of agreement, but there are still some that take the storm south, and some that take it out to sea. Looks like the "consensus" if there can be said to be one, is that Ophelia will terrorize the entire eastern seaboard, perhaps ultimately making landfall in Maine, if at all.
That's this model run. It wil change in a few hours.
| bigpapi |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 11 2005 04:11 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again
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Well, it's clouded up in the last few hours and the winds are running between 20 and 30 mph. The difference today is that the clouds are much lower and faster. Yesterday the cloud deck wasn't getting too far past the intracoastal today its advancing pretty far west. Also, looking at radar it appears the first band looks to be about 10 miles or so off shore. Myrtle Beach is only about 20 miles from the N.C border.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 11 2005 05:19 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again
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Ophelia could make many landfalls is it follows the GFDL path, she could landdfall in NC, DE, NJ, LI, CT..thats a lot for this thanggg
| WisconsinWill |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Sep 11 2005 05:19 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again
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Quote:
Well, it's clouded up in the last few hours and the winds are running between 20 and 30 mph. The difference today is that the clouds are much lower and faster. Yesterday the cloud deck wasn't getting too far past the intracoastal today its advancing pretty far west. Also, looking at radar it appears the first band looks to be about 10 miles or so off shore. Myrtle Beach is only about 20 miles from the N.C border.
I have family in the Myrtle Beach area (actually in North Myrtle) and I've been talking to them almost hour by hour, trying to keep them on top of what's going on. Strangely enough they aren't interested in the current weather (they only want me to answer "where's the hurricane going), so thanks for the obs. As you noticed with the lowering clouds, the low-level flow over the coastal carolinas has moistened considerably since yesterday. Dewpoints are up about 10 degrees in the last 12 hours, so some of those gusty showers may indeed make it ashore later on.
As for the hurricane, it pays to be cautious in looking at short term trends, but it looks as though Ophelia is gradually becoming better organized. The 15-20kt of westerly shear that's been plaguing the hurricane for the past day or so has dropped off to 10kt or less, and as a result the cloud pattern is becoming more symmetrical, with outflow now well-established in the western semicircle. Though the two latest recon fixes don't show any appreciable change in pressure or winds, they do report a closed eyewall. Intensity is famously difficult to forecast, but it looks as though Ophelia might be poised to strengthen a bit in the next 24 hours.
There's also the suggestion in recon, satellite and radar that Ophelia is drifting westward or west-southwestward. This might very well be insignificant, but given the recent trend of the GFS to push the track farther west, it's something to be watching for.
| bigpapi |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 11 2005 05:54 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again
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Yeah, noticed that slight westward drift lately. It's really hard to tell if it's a drift or the west side of the cyclone filling in now that the dry air has lessened. Bastardi's 11am update suggested that the ridge would win out over the next 48 hours and push Ophelia westward anywhere from 120 to 240 miles. Now I don't think his geography is that great because that would push it almost on shore south of Charleston, while he's calling for a Wilmington to Morehead City landfall.
Anyway, it's completely cloudy here now, a total change from yesterday. Might go out later and check out the Surf. Hopefully we get some rain, it's been a very dry month.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 11 2005 06:07 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again
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Quote:
There's also the suggestion in recon, satellite and radar that Ophelia is drifting westward or west-southwestward. This might very well be insignificant, but given the recent trend of the GFS to push the track farther west, it's something to be watching for.
I'm glad I'm not the only one who noticed a potential WSW drift on satellite. I thought I was imagining it at first but it seems to be persisting at least for a few hours.
Also there appears on WV to be dry air intruding upon Ophelia yet again.... but the leading edge of the moisture is definately closer to the North Carolina coastline at the end of the WV loop than it was at the beginning of the loop.
I wouldn't say that South Carolina is out of the woods yet.
Update: net movement of .1 west in the last 3 hours according to the 2pm ET advisory.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Sep 11 2005 06:25 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again
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The last recon fix at around noon EDT was 3' S and 3' W of the previous recon fix. That does confirm a SW drift, albeit a very slight one. The last few frames of the IR imagery since then shows the eye becoming a little more visible and basically not moving at all.
| CarolinaGurl |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 11 2005 06:56 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again
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Here in Wilmington - Grocery stores and Gas stations are busy, but not much else. Been down to Kure Beach and not much activity down there, a few people have put up their shutters. I think everyone is just playing wait and see. I have done all my preparations and my mom's in Kure Beach. Husband just made sure the boat wont blow away out of the back yard. Not liking the gfdl at all right now.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Sep 11 2005 07:13 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again
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Now it seems to have resumed a SW drift on satellite. The GFDL predicts a slow WSW movement during the next 24 hours and may turn out to be somewhat accurate if this trend continues. Obviously, the further west it gets, the more likely it is to hit something when it gets turned to the north as expected.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 11 2005 07:29 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again
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Quote:
Now it seems to have resumed a SW drift on satellite. The GFDL predicts a slow WSW movement during the next 24 hours and may turn out to be somewhat accurate if this trend continues. Obviously, the further west it gets, the more likely it is to hit something when it gets turned to the north as expected.
IF it gets turned to the north as expected. Has Ophelia done anything "as expected" yet? The NHC says she's not going to move, she starts moving. They say she's gonna move, she stalls. Ancient Chinese water torcher seems like a safer bet than predicting what Ophelia is going to do. The latest long-range radar images are inconclusive as to current motion, but the satellite does show a SW movement. I say movement because it looks like it's a bit too fast to be called a "drift" right now, but it will undoubtably stall again in an hour or two.
| bigpapi |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 11 2005 07:49 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again
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Yeah, been trying to figure out movement on the Long Range Radar. However, I could be completely off base, but I think Ophelia's drift South West took her just out of Wilmington's range to catch the center and just off of Charlestons, which hasn't been running properly anyway. Looking at Visibles it appears to have drifted SW. Notice the latest GFDL forecast, right back in my neck of the woods. The NHC has already missed their first forecast point. Imagine if after all is said and done this thing ends up by the Georgia/SC border like predicted well over a week ago! Don't think it's probable, but who knows at this point.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 11 2005 08:07 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again
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Quote:
Yeah, been trying to figure out movement on the Long Range Radar. However, I could be completely off base, but I think Ophelia's drift South West took her just out of Wilmington's range to catch the center and just off of Charlestons, which hasn't been running properly anyway. Looking at Visibles it appears to have drifted SW. Notice the latest GFDL forecast, right back in my neck of the woods. The NHC has already missed their first forecast point. Imagine if after all is said and done this thing ends up by the Georgia/SC border like predicted well over a week ago! Don't think it's probable, but who knows at this point.
I was thinking "imagine if after all is said and done this thing ends up by Melborne, FL!' Don't think that's probable, but... anything is possible. The center is no longer visible on any radar that I can find, but the movement is clear on Visible imagery. I think the models are just scratching their heads.
5pm Discussion says:
The center drifted a little westward or west-southwestward over the
past few hours...but so far the movement is still quasi-stationary.
Now that's a technical term.
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 11 2005 09:29 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again
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"I was thinking "imagine if after all is said and done this thing ends up by Melborne, FL!'"
HEY, I resent that statement.....ROFL! You just keep those thoughts to yourself..lol. It is a strange storm though. Everytime I look at her, I think she's doing something else that she's not supposed to be doing. I've decided to just not look for awhile.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 11 2005 09:43 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Stalls Again
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Quote:
"I was thinking "imagine if after all is said and done this thing ends up by Melborne, FL!'"
HEY, I resent that statement.....ROFL! You just keep those thoughts to yourself..lol. It is a strange storm though. Everytime I look at her, I think she's doing something else that she's not supposed to be doing. I've decided to just not look for awhile.
Sorry...
good news, though. Looking at the latest satellite picture, Opelia is right on the dot for the NHC track. Wait a minute, that's the current location dot, and the image is 15 minutes before the 4pm advisory!
Looks on IR like the current motion is somewhere between due west and due south. Looking at the visible loop, current motion is somewhere between due south and due east.
I give up! This storm is crazy!
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sun Sep 11 2005 09:56 PM |
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Ophelia's Movement
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If you have been using NASA MSFC closeup imagery to determine movement, a couple of the more recent images were slightly misaligned and may have given a momentary impression of westward movement. In fact, for the last couple of hours, Ophelia has been drifting just south of due east.
Also, a reminder to use the Forecast Lounge Forum for predictions that are based on little more than a hunch. All of the models generally perform poorly on a stationary system - and some of them perform poorly regardless, which is why models are used only as a guide when developing a forecast (along with many other inputs). If you "live by the model - die by the model" you are not forecasting anything - you are simply reading. Model outputs and sometimes even official forecasts generate a lot of conjecture - that often never verifies. If Hurricane Ophelia continues to drift eastward, the likelyhood of a U.S. landfall diminishes. This is not to say that she shouldn't be watched - for she should - however, speculation for landfall in Florida or even South Carolina based on current trends is remote at best.
Actually Ophelia is helping to create her own block for westward movement by pulling southward the western extension of the ridge over the mid Atlantic states and northeast states. Can South Carolina still get tropical storm force winds? Yes, but landfall there is not very likely.
ED
(Note: From just about the last good visible satellite image at 2240Z, the center coordinates were 31.4N 75.7W)
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 11 2005 10:57 PM |
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Re: Ophelia's Movement
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Quote:
If you have been using NASA MSFC closeup imagery to determine movement, a couple of the more recent images were slightly misaligned and may have given a momentary impression of westward movement. In fact, for the last couple of hours, Ophelia has been drifting just south of due east.
I'm not sure what the NASA MSFC closeup imagery is. I'm using www.ssd.noaa.gov. There's no movement at all on the current loop.
Quote:
Actually Ophelia is helping to create her own block for westward movement by pulling southward the western extension of the ridge over the mid Atlantic states and northeast states. Can South Carolina still get tropical storm force winds? Yes, but landfall there is not very likely.
ED
I must be looking at a different water vapor loop - don't see any ridge extending over SC or NC - though on the WV loop I do see some movement southeast. Ophelia is definately looking less menacing in general.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 11 2005 11:48 PM |
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Re: Ophelia's Movement
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Ed was just reading your blog of 11:00 am 9/10. It is amazing that this storm has moved merely one tenth degree south and a tenth or so east of the stats over 24 hours ago. I know there has been movement or drifting, but this is amazing. Is there any possibility that this storm will survive to go around the blockage at the south. I know the question was asked indirectly a while ago, and I read the answer. But those highs to the north really look too high to allow any northward travel unless Ophelia's air pressures start to rise and it does not matter anymore.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 12:17 AM |
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Re: Ophelia's Movement
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Quote:
Ed was just reading your blog of 11:00 am 9/10. It is amazing that this storm has moved merely one tenth degree south and a tenth or so east of the stats over 24 hours ago. I know there has been movement or drifting, but this is amazing. Is there any possibility that this storm will survive to go around the blockage at the south. I know the question was asked indirectly a while ago, and I read the answer. But those highs to the north really look too high to allow any northward travel unless Ophelia's air pressures start to rise and it does not matter anymore.
It really is amazing - when the storm started to move, who would have thought it would stall again so soon?
Are you asking if there is a possibility that Ophelia may sneak under the high and head west? The high definately seems to be blocking northward motion right now, but Ophelia is also looking ragged on the satellite.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 12:24 AM |
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Re: Ophelia's Movement
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I was specifically wondering about about a westward move through Georgia and back into the panhandle of Florida as a tropical depression or borderline Tropcial Storm. I don't see it as a sneak because I think that her relative pressures could increase which would cause her to more or less blend in to the surrounding pressures.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 12:29 AM |
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Re: Ophelia's Movement
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Quote:
I was specifically wondering about about a westward move through Georgia and back into the panhandle of Florida as a tropical depression or borderline Tropcial Storm. I don't see it as a sneak because I think that her relative pressures could increase which would cause her to more or less blend in to the surrounding pressures.
One of the models was showing that the other day (I forget which model and which day, it's been a long week). When I saw it I showed it to a co-worker and we had a good laugh. I suppose it's possible, but it doesn't seem probable. Right now (last couple of hours), Ophelia looks like a pinball - bouncing around and ending up pretty much right where she was to start with. It's going to take a weakness somewhere for the storm to move - where that weakness occurs is going to be interesting.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 12:37 AM |
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Re: Ophelia's Movement
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While its true that the ridge to the north of Ophelia is a lot stronger than the ridge to her south and west, a low pressure system north of Maine is expected to move eastward into the Atlantic and create a weakness in the ridge to her north. This would allow Ophelia to move north and eventually northeast as the strong westerlies currently to the north of the storm begin to relax. The high pressure ridge from the Great Lakes to Alabama (and even north Florida) is not moving much at all, but it presents quite a block against any significant westward movement. Ophelia is still 'stuck' in place as it has been all weekend. While there has been some jogs to the north and to the east, there really hasn't been any definitive movement for a couple of days. The warnings and watches issued by NHC seem to be a worthwhile precaution given the uncertainty of her future track. Ophelia certainly has a track record of some weakening and stalling in the evening followed by rebuilding and short movements in the morning. Until the overall weather pattern changes, her movement is still a 'best guess'.
Cheers,
ED
| bigpapi |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 12:52 AM |
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Re: Ophelia's Movement
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It appears the GFDL and GFS have both stayed with their more south and west tracks for two straight runs. The 18Z just came out. Does anyone believe the NHC may adjust at 11pm? I believe they have relied on the GFDL moreso this year than last. I could be wrong though.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 01:05 AM |
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Re: Ophelia's Movement
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Quote:
It appears the GFDL and GFS have both stayed with their more south and west tracks for two straight runs. The 18Z just came out. Does anyone believe the NHC may adjust at 11pm? I believe they have relied on the GFDL moreso this year than last. I could be wrong though.
They try not to make major adjustments to the forecast track because models can wobble... but the NHC forecast from 5pm is now well east of the model consensus, so they may adjust if the trend continues - or they may forecast a stalling again because the models are spread out again. GFDL has been effective for some storms, but I don't think Ophelia is one of them.
| jusforsean |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 01:49 AM |
Re: Ophelia's Movement
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Hi,
Question, where can i find a link to the gfdl model and others everyone seems to be looking at?
Thanks
Regina
| bigpapi |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 01:58 AM |
Re: Ophelia's Movement
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Just go to the bottom of the main page. There is a link for the models. The latest ones are the 18z models. The next ones to come out will be 00z starting on September 12th. The only ones that have updated so far are the GFDL and the GSF. Have Fun
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 02:01 AM |
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ophelia in the middle seat
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upper high to the northwest, upper high to the southeast, ophelia in the middle. earlier on i was thinking that the high over the continent would win out, but the upper westerlies haven't abated enough to let the storm slide westward. if ophelia was shallower it would have already run towards ga or sc, but in spite of upwelling and subsidence entrainment the storm is maintaining a sub 980mb central pressure. ophelia is neither here nor there, though... so neither flow mechanism is moving the storm much.. and the highs are cancelling one another, too. if ophelia weakens some it might run further west, but after taking the bait the other day and pegging the sc coast, the storm has remained stuck and will probably bust me. the eastern part of north carolina, which as-of-late gets almost all of the action on the east coast, has the greatest chance of being affected climatologically and realistically, as ophelia is remaining stalled and steady-state.
HF 1401z12september
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 02:54 AM |
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Could She?
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could this come off the coast re strenghten and make a second landfall NYC-MTK-BOX(new york city, montauk, boston)??..please let me know, thanks.
_RYAN
EDIT: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...Animation..look at the 102 hour, it shows cat 1 force strength being in the easter side of the storm so in 102 hours thats over NYC, western LI, and the Jersey shore..what do people think GFDL has pretty trusty has it not?
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 03:09 AM |
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Re: Could She?
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All of the models...and the NHC for that matter...are really having a hard time with this one...read the 11 disco...interesting choice of words...have even left the door open for a shift west based on what some of the models are now showing...guess we'll know where she's going when she gets there.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 04:34 AM |
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Re: Could She?
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The GFDL 99 times out of 100 overdoes wind speeds with storms having made landfall; moving into the midlatitudes and ultimately off to the northeast; or both. I'd take those figures with a serious grain of salt, but not downplay the threat altogether. There is still the potential for tropical storm-force winds up that way in areas near-shore, but hurricane-force? Not likely.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 06:20 AM |
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00z models
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the group has moved to the left... something else starting to show up that i'd discounted earlier.. but only the gfs has a quick/clean recurvature now. the rest have it slowing down near the coast before taking it out, nogaps stalls it and loops it off nc, and the canadian kinda splits it and chucks one piece sw to florida (albeit weak/gone).
it's late, but i'm seeing other interesting things in the medium range globals and ensemble anomalies. not to mention getting a feel on the untrustworthy pulse of mjo. end of the month/early october could be quite interesting.
HF 0620z12september
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 11:25 AM |
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Re: 00z models
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Ok, I'm giving a quick paraphrase of the 2nd paragraph of the 5am discussion from NHC: "We have no clue where she's going, and the models aren't helping."
Here's the original, unparaphrased one: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/120907.shtml
Thats how I read it. Looking at the models, here in MD with NE exposure, I'm not liking her track. It's better for a storm to go inland than along the coast becuase of wind direction.
The model consensus is continuing to drift eastward, now just skirting NC before shooting up almost on the coast until Canada. However, we have seen Ophelia refuse to move before when we expected her too, and we've seen that her sitting and drifting has a major influence on the long term path. With CMC sending her south, NOGAPS not moving her, GFS taking her inland then northeast, and UKMET keeping her along the coast...I still think anything's possible.
Looking at IR...she looks sick. So much dry air in her, so little convection. Yet somehow she's holding on the hurricane strength. If she moves over warm water again, she could regain her form...and possibly grow. Something to watch whenever she actually starts moving.
| Yikes |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 11:29 AM |
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Re: 00z models
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Thoughts regarding Charleston, SC , this area is now under TS and H watch. Supposed to be traveling to Charleston today. Any information you could share regarding factors that could generate a more westerly swing would be appreciated.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 11:55 AM |
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Re: 00z models
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Yikes: Let me try and explain as best I understand
- a met or HF would be much better, but lacking them, I might be able to get it right http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm3.html
The high pressure over the eastern US is eroding and moving slowly east. As it does this it opens a potential westward movement path. It's still at least a day off before Ophelia's likely to move, and if you look at the model tracks, it isn't until midweek (late tues, wed, or early thurs) that landfall would occur...if it ever occurs...or if it occurs anywhere near the time or space the models indicate.
The real question is what happens with the high over the Atlantic. Earlier this week it was forcast to stay where it was, possibly strengthen, and thus as the high over the US weakened the one over the atlantic would push Ophelia toward land.
That has changed. The Atlantic high has drifed east and weakened slightly, moving the forcing for Ophelia further out to sea. The result is that as the high over the US weakens and moves east Ophelia might not track west as was expected earlier this week. That's why the models are now predicting a more northward movement...however, it could be just as possible to stall or have a southward movement...ie NOGAPS and CMC solutions respectively.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 12:33 PM |
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Re: 00z models
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What are the chances that this thing could actually landfall inland near Morehead City NC and enter the Sound area's and stall in the sounds or maybe do some kind of loop ast the nogaps & ukmet are showing at the 0600z models show. My concern is that it will come inland and stall again and pound the coastal area's from Tuesday-Friday with even minimal cat 1 or as a high level TS. Does anybody see any type of possibility playing out? I'm located near 35.2N-76.7W.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 12:41 PM |
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Re: 00z models
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J.C. - refering back to my first post this morning:
Quote:
Ok, I'm giving a quick paraphrase of the 2nd paragraph of the 5am discussion from NHC: "We have no clue where she's going, and the models aren't helping."
Anything's possible. Anything. What is the chance of 1 in a billion possible tracks?
It's fine to look at the steering layers and say "this might happen" or "this is probably what the models are picking up" or "this ridge is keeping her from going east" but the fact is we don't know. We have a few limiters, such as the storm can't move far east becuase of that Atlantic ridge. But that's about the only limiting factor we have in the long term. There is no forcing of the storm any direction. There is no "only one route" method. As a result it could go anywhere. The model tracks are still all over the place.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 12:43 PM |
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Re: 00z models
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J.C.,
The climatology, which I think plays a large part in NHC thinking on the track, is interesting:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200516_climo.html
I was expecting to see most of the stroms in a similar position go out to sea, but it's really a mixed bag.
| Magic Hat |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 12:54 PM |
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Re: 00z models
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Quote:
mjo. end of the month/early october could be quite interesting.
HF 0620z12september
Don't even go there... please. The problem is I was taught to watch those darn love bugs. When they are thick, then expect a storm to blow them away. George Co, MS had a few when we left, but between MS and Jacksonville, FL, we found a herd of the buggers. Not scientific, I know, but their past accuracy makes me wonder what is coming.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 01:01 PM |
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Re: 00z models
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Why should the end of Sept./first of Oct. be interesting? Should there be a lot of development at this time and why do you think so?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 01:07 PM |
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Re: 00z models
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Thanks for your input RC & ED. I just checked the latest recon data. Looks like she is mighty sick right now. Pressure up to 988mb. Another concern is that after watching these storms for over 30 yrs in this area is the Gulf Stream. I remember Alex from last year when it blew up to 90 kts seemingly over night. It seems to me taht the shear has lessened a bit so the only inhibiting factor for intensification is the upwelling of water but yet it will be moving over waters that it has not yet traveled over as it approaches the coast line. I also checked the latest vis sat and it appears to me that the dry air that had been entrained may beginning to get closer to the coc. My thought is that it may actually weaken until the dry air gets out then a more modest strenghtening after the next 6-12 hours. Anyone have any thought on this?
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 01:19 PM |
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late sep/early oct
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MJO has become redefined this month, with a fairly solid wave propagating east right now. the enhancing zone has already crossed the dateline. it could be that the new eastpac system is a precursor to an oncoming active stretch. the wave in august washed out before getting to our part of the hemisphere (it was probably damped by some other factor), and this one could also... but if this one makes it, we'll get an mjo pulse in the atlantic during a hyper-active year.
the entire basin is open for development this time of year, but the eastern atlantic usually doesn't do much after the third week of september. it looks like the far cv region will shut down shortly.. it has already been impinged on by upper troughs, prematurely. we've got what's acting like a persistent positive nao, which favors zonal ridging.. with negative pulses... this is the pattern that enacted in july and gave us all that activity. it also favors low-trajectory tracks in the deep tropics that get storms further westward.
then there's the ensemble means themselves. they've been showing increasingly zonal ridging in the eastern u.s. for some time.. this has verified so far. what we'll have in the next couple weeks, if it verifies in the future, will be a pattern that favors tracks into the gulf and eventually to the southeast coast. add to that, late september/early october is when the favored development zones shift to the western caribbean.
all of this adds up to renewed peril on the gulf coast, is what i'm thinking. perhaps something like what happened in the fall of 2002, only not in an el nino year.
HF 1319z12september
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 01:28 PM |
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Re: late sep/early oct
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HF The gulf coast that you are referring to. Do you have an idea of which gulf coast would have the most risk due to the Zonal pattern you were talking about? I know that we are all who are affected by Hurricanes around the gulf wonder who will be blindfolded and given their last cigarrette, so to speak.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 01:36 PM |
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Re: late sep/early oct
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umm yes, a bunch of gulf storms, that's exactly what we need to top of this year....
NOT
Not much about this year or the storms it has produced seems to be logical so I will hope that all of what you (HF) just said turns out... Not To Be The Case.....
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 01:52 PM |
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Re: late sep/early oct
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HF points out an expected change in the MJO that would change the Atlantic from an inactive to an active period - with the change occuring from the end of Sept into October - and I agree. October could end up being more active than normal. The CV season is probably over - most of the waves exiting the west coast of Africa have been weak and there haven't been that many of them lately. The weaker waves are moving west northwestward at a more southerly latitude so formation is not likely until they get near the southern Caribbean Islands or into the Caribbean Sea itself. This pattern, if it evolves (and it probably will since there are signs of this already) would move developing systems either into the Gulf of Mexico or, depending on the strength of the Atlantic ridge and the strength of cold fronts moving toward the Southeast over the U.S., northward up the east coast. I believe that his point was that storms could be prone to entering the Gulf - where they eventually go from there depends on conditions at that time.
Cheers,
ED
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 02:46 PM |
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Re: late sep/early oct
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11:00 discussion out. Track about the same, but a bit slower. Some models say it could still be off SE coast in 5 days:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200516.disc.html
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 05:04 PM |
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Re: late sep/early oct
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Looks like pretty much due west with the satellite presentation looking a bit better:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 05:26 PM |
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Re: late sep/early oct
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Quote:
Looks like pretty much due west with the satellite presentation looking a bit better:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
watch the center NOT the clouds and you can see the center on your link is going to the northwest slowly.
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 05:38 PM |
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Re: late sep/early oct
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I might tend to agree with you. I`m in N. Charleston on business task force and radar out of both Charley town and Wilmington show some hefty storms in a outer band off shore that seem to be slowly tracking toward the coast . Movement to me looks west and maybe a little tad to the northwest. Its been interesting here for the last couple of days. Our sales people here at the property that I`m at have been getting inquireys from local power companys repair people on how many rooms do we have available this week , just incase they need them if something happens. From a revenue stand point it would be nice to fill up the house seeing that its kind of slow here for the next week and a half.......Weatherchef
| bigpapi |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 07:01 PM |
Re: Could She?
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I've got a question. I'm assuming when forecasts are done, timing means a lot. Reading the discussions from yesterday there was the thinking that Ophelia could be stationary for a few days, then assume a north to eventually northeast track. At least that was one of the discussions I just went and looked at.
Ophelia now seems to be moving on a little faster and slightly more westward track then thought yesterday. Will this mean she won't feel the affect of the trough until inland now opposed to before hitting the coast? Looking on my coordinates she only has about 1 degree to go before being directly South of Myrtle Beach but still has a little over 2 degrees to go north. I'm thinking this may be another Wilmington or Cape Fear area hit. Just a weird storm that probably has about 2 surprises left.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 07:23 PM |
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Ophelia
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If Ophelia is going to start intensifying again, now would be the time for that to start, as I think it is pretty much over the Gulf Stream at this point. While there has been a very slight increase in convection around the center in the last hour or so, nothing dramatic yet. It seems like these storms that reach hurricane strength and then have their inner-core decimated like Ophelia often struggle to recover, even if they find themselves in a favorable environment again.
| Myles |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 08:08 PM |
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Re: Ophelia
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I dont think Ophelia is going to do much strengthing. It looks like, to me, that she will continue to be borderline tropical storm/hurricane all that way until landfall with many fluctuations inbetween. I say this, because even though it has a fairly favorable enviornment for strengthing around it; and outflow appears to be returning to west side, there is just so much dry air around her. I think whenever Ophelia tries to strengthen she will ingest dry air into the core and unwind itself again like it has over the last 24 hours. It's kinda a catch 22; strengthen, take in dry air, weaken and filter the dry air, strengthen, ingest dry air again, ect, ect. Unless that dry air goes away she doesnt look to have an opportunity to really pick things up before landfall.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 08:31 PM |
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Re: late sep/early oct
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Just heard a brief sound clip on the radio by Joe Bastardi indicating that we should be looking at posible Caribbean development toward the end of this week and into the weekend. ANy thoughts? And thanks for your good work. This site is a real must for those of us trying to keep a weather eye out. Kudos.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 09:53 PM |
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Re: late sep/early oct
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I think it's more scary that we are calling the current period "inactive" and the coming MJO induced period to be "active." If this isn't "active," I don't want to see what is...
As for future development, there is a wave in the Atlantic that looks like it might develop once it gets out of the SAL. Models are developing it as it nears the Carribean, so JB might not be so wrong as he usually is. This wave has been tried to be snuffed out by the SAL, and the wave fought back against a weakening SAL and now looks better than at anytime since it left Africa.
--RC
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 11:30 PM |
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Re: Ophelia
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Ophelia reminds me a bit of Isidore from 2002, albeit for different reasons. Weakened storm that is still organized enough to be near hurricane intensity, but disrupted enough by external influences (here, upwelling and potentially dry air; heard a few debates on the topic today) to result in a storm with a relatively flat wind profile that, while moving into a more favorable environment, is not conducive to any quick development (if any at all). Expect the storm to come in near this intensity. I expect this storm to come in between Myrtle Beach and Wilmington sometime late tomorrow or on Wednesday -- a little further south of the NHC position is my guess -- before turning toward the north at a slow clip. Potential threat to the DelMarVa, Long Island, and New England is there, but other than high surf, gusty winds, and a couple-few inches of rain, it's nothing to write home about.
Wave out in the Cent. Atlantic bears some watching, but the upper-low in the same area needs to fill or move out before anything is to get going out there. There has been some model support for something and those waters are largely untouched this year -- in fact, the area east of 40W contains what are probably the least-disturbed waters this season outside of the SW Caribbean, though this is likely to form further west of there -- so it bears watching. Cape Verde season, which never really got going in earnest, is largely done with troughing taking over the tropical east Atlantic.
Waters remain anamolously cool in the Gulf and off of the SE coastline due to Katrina and Ophelia, respectively. It's still enough to get something going in the Gulf, but the threat for another big storm has been greatly diminished at least for the time being -- if not the entire season, as now is the time when air temperatures begin to fall and start to take the SSTs with them. Only 6 more storms gets us to the end of the list; with another one or two likely this month and the potential for a fairly active October, it's a fair bet that we make a run at the end of the list.
| WisconsinWill |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Sep 13 2005 12:38 AM |
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Re: Ophelia
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Quote:
Ophelia reminds me a bit of Isidore from 2002, albeit for different reasons. Weakened storm that is still organized enough to be near hurricane intensity, but disrupted enough by external influences (here, upwelling and potentially dry air; heard a few debates on the topic today) to result in a storm with a relatively flat wind profile that, while moving into a more favorable environment, is not conducive to any quick development (if any at all).
Yes, Isidore -- I think Chris Landsea called it "The Mother of all Swirls" as it moved north over the GOM. Never having been nearly as strong, perhaps Ophelia is the "The Daughter of all Swirls."
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 13 2005 12:54 AM |
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Re: Ophelia
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Gulf is cool where we are, 82 degrees as opposed to 91 degrees before Katrina made landfall.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Tue Sep 13 2005 01:14 AM |
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Just a Note
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...to let you know that a new Main Page article has been posted. Your thoughts on the future movement of this system are always appreciated.
Cheers,
ED