MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Oct 06 2005 11:31 AM
Tammy Makes Landfall, Other Systems

Yesterday Tammy made landflal just north of Jacksonville, and is now inland in Georgia, moving away and become a rain event for parts of the southeast.

But to the southwest of Florida, another wave is still there, 93L remains disorgainized this morning and I don't believe it will develop into much, if anything. It will cause rain and some wind to Southwest Florida, and other parts of the peninsula over the next fews days. We'll be watching it

Out east of the Islands, the wave known as 94L has some chance to develop, but this one will most likely stay away from land.


Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com
Comments/Feedback on the maps look here.

Event Related Links
Jacksonville, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar

Spaghetti Style model plots from Colorado State University


StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Miami, Key West, Melbourne


Tammy

Animated model plot of Tammy

93L Yucatan Area


94L


Steve H1
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Oct 06 2005 12:52 PM
Re: Tammy Makes Landfall, Other Systems

I dunno. Looks like convection is blooming south of the LLC of 93L. This needs to be watched for development, and I believe we will get vince of Wilma out of this, depending on when they name 94L , which actually could affect the islands. It is still moving WNW at a good clip. We'll see how this all plays out, and whether 94L misses the trough , as ridging may rde west north of this disturbance. Cheers!!

SkeetoBiteAdministrator
(Master of Maps)
Thu Oct 06 2005 01:38 PM
Re: Tammy Makes Landfall, Other Systems

SST Test maps: (not automated yet)
SST data current as of 10/05/2005 5pm EST





Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Thu Oct 06 2005 01:44 PM
Re: Tammy Makes Landfall, Other Systems

93L is similar to what Tammy was before it got its act together... a broad low-level circulation with convection mostly removed to the east. There is more convection closer to the center this morning, and if that continues it may develop into a system similar to Tammy at some point. It's also possible that a secondary circulation could form closer to the convection if it continues to bloom away from the current center.

That is a real beast of a convective blob just off the Mexican coast in the Pacific, probably the largest and coldest convective system I can remember in the tropics that has not been classified as a tropical cyclone. That may change soon.


SMOKE
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Oct 06 2005 03:18 PM
Re: Tammy Makes Landfall, Other Systems

NHC is leaning forward on 94L. Hoping that the TROF and 94L do meet.

lunkerhunter
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Oct 06 2005 03:53 PM
Re: Tammy Makes Landfall, Other Systems

93L has some serious convection now.

Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Thu Oct 06 2005 04:16 PM
L93 convection

Quote:

93L has some serious convection now.




There's some serious cold cloud tops there, but it's still displaced about 50 - 100 miles from the surface low. Of course, lopsided systems aren't impossible or even unlikely. I'd say give it 6 - 12 hours, if the convection presists... the low pressure could tighten up and we might see something, but land is also going to be an interfering factor.

So, I'm not too worried yet.
As an aside, it figures I'd be driving up to Atlanta from Tampa this afternoon... rain rain rain urk


-Mark


Ronn
(User)
Thu Oct 06 2005 04:33 PM
Re: Tammy Makes Landfall, Other Systems

The convection is still displaced well SE of the circulation. On the latest satellite imagery, this convection is already being sheared to the east, with much of the cold cloud tops near the western tip of Cuba being in the form of blowoff. Unless this low reforms under the convection, significant development will likely not happen. There is just too much dry air and shear coming from the west. Perhaps we'll see a quick burst of development resulting in a weak hybrid/lopsided TD or TS shoot across FL, but certainly nothing more than that, and probably nothing at all, in my opinion.

HanKFranK
(User)
Thu Oct 06 2005 05:33 PM
rundown

tammy: low level center over southeast alabama now, moving wsw. most of the mid-level component of the system moved north as it decoupled near the ga/fl border last night. been light/moderate rain here all morning, but not a big deal really. the low level vorticity may get dragged down to the panhandle coast, but like the nhc discussion says it's very unlikely to redevelop.
93L: center over western cuba, moving slowly ene/ne. lopsided though it may be, a good low level westerly flow and sharp turn to a southerly flow is keeping this system viable at the surface, with a shear gradient over the top allowing for the lopsided convection to remain constant. wouldn't be surprised if it turns north over time and pivots up the east coast. the 'center' of the general broad low pressure is a 500mb low over the eastern gulf that all the rest of the features are turning around. some of the models are making this the primary feature, but i'm more of the opinion that 93L will be it, ready to baroclinically deepen as it moves up the east coast.
94L: looked better earlier this morning. there's a definite low and mid-level turning with this feature, but the deep convection that was near the center has puffed out and is now scattered on the arced bands to the north. the system is already sliding underneath the upper trough to the nw, so it should decelerate and come under greater shear. westward-building ridging and diffluence should keep it going, but as it sped along the last day or so it's eaten up a lot of its own comfort zone. based on overall organization i'd expect it to develop, but probably not very much. the disturbance should be persistent and end up moving nw over time. some of the wave energy may propagate west into the caribbean as well.
old td 19/upper low conglomerate: bastardi thinks this will drill down and end up as a system sw of bermuda early next week. based on how it looks and what the models show, i'd say there's a good chance this will happen. keep an eye on it as it works westward over the next few days.
azores storm: take a glance at the deep layer low near the azores. it's spun up a great deal and may have a secluded warm core, even though it's over subpar waters for supporting a typical hurricane. i'd be very interested to see the phase analysis diagrams on it as it has a definite tropical appearance, complete with banding, concentrated deep convection, and a banding-type eye feature. just a maritime/azores threat, and i doubt the nhc will pay any attention to it.
stan: a well defined low level circulation is visible off the coast of mexico now. nhc will probably initiate it as a different system, even though it is arguably still stan. the pacific name, should it acquire one, would be pilar. not sure what this system will do in the long run... some modeling shows it coming back to the mexican coast further north.
HF 1733z06october


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Thu Oct 06 2005 08:30 PM
Re: rundown

I compared the AOML Katrina Wind Swath model results to actual NHC reported NWS readings from the Katrina advisory archive. Results posted in the 2005 Storm Forum. IMHO the model underestimated the windspeed considerably.

8pm -- the NHC TPC home page looks strangely empty.


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Thu Oct 06 2005 08:32 PM
Re: rundown

Cyclone phase diagrams on the Azores low:

GFS
(working out bugs in the display script on the Canadian, UKMET, and NOGAPS...expect evolution to be similar in each)

Doesn't really show much of anything, though it does suggest the low-level structure of the storm may be trying to become a little bit more warm-core with time.

Upper trough over Central Atlantic is being fed by the upper-level heating due to the outflow from Tammy remnants (more appropriately, the outflow from the convective bursts that fire up underneath strong diffluence aloft)...as long as that keeps up, I don't expect to see it work its way down or for 94L to really get going. Might've been classifiable as a TD overnight, but the overall organization is on the decrease I think. Circulation center with 93L is on the northern edge of the convection now, whereas it had been displaced to the north, but the overall growth of this one probably won't be tropical. The whole mess -- the upper-low, Tammy's remnants, and 93L -- should get picked up and accelerated toward the NE over the next couple of days. Could be an interesting coastal storm...probably not, though.


JYarsh
(Verified CFHC User)
Thu Oct 06 2005 08:42 PM
Re: Tammy Makes Landfall, Other Systems

Thank goodness its finally gonna rain.

You know, we got no rain in after August 14 except for .05 inches in mid-September. Hopefully the flooding won't be to much because the ground won't absorb much now.


oil trader
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Oct 06 2005 08:52 PM
Re: Tammy Makes Landfall, Other Systems

Is there anything to say about 94L?

The track is turning much more westerly than previous forecasts. Models now are pointing more to Caribbean Island or to SE US Coast.


Rich B
(British Meteorologist)
Thu Oct 06 2005 09:05 PM
Re: Tammy Makes Landfall, Other Systems

The Azores system has been given TNumbers of ST1.5/1.5 both at 0600z this morning and at 0600z yesterday. Still has evident banding on the IR imagary and could spin up but its window of oppurtunity will be getting smaller.

Tammy looks like it could actually make it to the Gulf, although unlikely to regenerate. Visible imagery would appear to show the remnant circulation approaching the Alabama coast so worth just keeping a eye on.

The disturbance over Cuba still seems to be suffering the effects of shear and remains very tilted. Still has potential, but nothing likely in the short term. Persistence will be the key with this one.

The central Atlantic wave / low also has potential, and is probably the most likely candidate for our 'V' storm if the Azores system holds off.

Regards


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Thu Oct 06 2005 09:06 PM
Re: Tammy Makes Landfall, Other Systems

PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 7 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION TAMMY
NWS...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...CAMP SPRINGS MD
5 PM EDT THU OCT 6 2005
...THE REMNANTS OF TAMMY MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...
ALL FLOOD WATCHES ALONG THE PATH OF TAMMY HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
AT 5 PM EDT...21Z...THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF TAMMY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST...OR ABOUT
75 MILES WEST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA.
THE REMNANTS OF TAMMY HAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY AND ARE NOW MOVING TO THE SOUTH AT ABOUT
20 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 29.65 INCHES OR 1004 MB.
{removed rainfall totals}

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN GULF COAST
REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS OF TAMMY. HEAVIER RAINS
ARE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES... BUT THESE
RAINS ARE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH TAMMY... BUT ARE THE RESULT OF DEEP
MOISTURE COMING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...30.2 NORTH...85.6 WEST...
MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTH AT 20 MPH...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 15
MPH...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 29.65 INCHES OR
1004 MB.
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY ON THE REMNANTS OF TAMMY ISSUED BY
THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
TRIMARCO/TERRY


abyrd
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Oct 06 2005 09:24 PM
Re: Tammy Makes Landfall, Other Systems

Here we go again: from the Melbourne forecast:
BOTH UKMET AND TO A LARGER DEGREE...GFS INDICATES VORT INTERACTION
BETWEEN APCHG ATLC TROPICAL WAVE (CURRENTLY NEAR 50W) AND SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF OLD WAVE EAST OF STATE EARLY IN THE WEEK OVER THE BAHAMAS.
AM NOT LAYING TOO MUCH CONFIDENCE ON WHERE AND WHEN DEVELOPMENT WL
OCCUR BUT GFS HAS GENERALLY BEEN PERFORMING WELL WRT TO AN ACTIVE
PATTERN OF SURFACE GENESIS NEAR THE STATE THIS TROPICAL SEASON.

EXTENDED GUID KEEPS SURFACE TROPICAL LOW TRAPPED NEAR THE BAHAMAS
THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN A MOTION SEAWARD LATE IN TEH PERIOD.

I believe this is 94L we're talking about being trapped in the Bahamas midweek!
naw. that's whatever gets left after the tammy/93L mess gets out. note it says the stuff moves out to sea after that. its a very questionable bunch of model runs this is based on... very little consistency about the individual features. -HF


HanKFranK
(User)
Thu Oct 06 2005 10:37 PM
qualms

well, here's how i'm interpreting what the nhc is saying about current systems:
for tammy they just mentioned that the hpc has issued its last advisory. the low isn't well defined anymore and would have to throw a bunch of deep convection to be reclassified, as it's pivoting off the panhandle coast this evening. very little chance is what i reckon, and the TWO assumes none.
93L they're more ambiguous on. their tone indicates that if it weren't sheared or being chased by a dry air surge and had organized convection, it would be a depression. it's lopsided like tammy was but with a more baroclinic sort of energy source. all the same it may develop into a tropical cyclone with one deep burst of convection and take off as the upper flow would start to steer it. expect it to track over southern florida and up the east coast.. whether as a tropical cyclone or as a half-formed low. if it becomes a tropical cyclone it would have a long deepening run up the coast, is the only caveat.
94L is getting into a strongly divergent/stronger shear zone. expect the persistent convection it's lacked to come into place now, but it may lose it all to shear just like that. were it to slow down it would have a chance at organization, but it would have to make very fine maneuvers between the killing shear and the swath that would support a sheared system.
TWO finally mentioned the deep-layer cyclone near 24/55. the surface part seems to be on the nw side of the overall low, and is in a moderately supportive environment. ahead is a very strong nw jet that is going to tear all the convection away if it runs into it. part of it will probably race ahead under the strong shear, and some should linger near the upper low . i'm not sure how this one plays out, as the upper trough has an opposite influence near the center.
basin shear has picked up a tad, so any system that manages to form will likely contend with some. the pattern is transitioning, though, so it ought to keep supporting new areas of disturbed weather for the time being.
HF 2237z06october


damejune2
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Oct 06 2005 11:26 PM
Re: qualms

I have a question: What happens or doesn't happen between December 1st and June 1st that causes trop systems not to form in the atlantic? The water temp around here drops and up the eastern seaboard, but sst's in the caribbean and south atlantic near the equator stay about the same right? Why doesn't stuff get stirred up? I know wind currents are a lot different around here too, but anyway...just wondering.

You can PM me so the board doesn't get cluttered.
the westerly flow drops far to the south and the itcz shifts southward with it... the conditions needed to support a tropical system generally can't be found in the off-months. -HF


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Oct 07 2005 01:08 AM
Re: qualms

well it looks like X-Tammy/ 1004mb low is back in the GOM.... hey its just 10-20 miles away from me...to the west... don't think will see much of anything out of it.... clouds are overcast and a little windy here....the ULL in the GOM does appear to be weaker up towards the coast... so i keep an eye here with the low.... water is warm... but there is dry air up in the atmosphere here.... FSL Soundings PFN..... here's a shortwave shot from the floater... can cleary see where the broad low is at.... Floater 2 - Shortwave IR

Also was tracking it with RSO-Visible Floater


Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Fri Oct 07 2005 01:12 AM
Re: qualms

Quote:

well it looks like X-Tammy/ 1004mb low is back in the GOM.... hey its just 10-20 miles away from me...to the west... don't think will see much of anything out of it.... clouds are overcast and a little windy here....the ULL in the GOM does appear to be weaker up towards the coast... so i keep an eye here with the low.... water is warm... but there is dry air up in the atmosphere here.... FSL Soundings PFN..... here's a shortwave shot from the floater... can cleary see where the broad low is at.... Floater 2 - Shortwave IR




From what I can tell... the remnants of Tammy went right over me or very close earlier today... and are pretty much due south of me right now. It didn't even rain here today, and there was no wind to speak of that I could tell. The thing looks pretty sad right now, but anything is possible I suppose.

Looking at the WV and IR4 loops, the GOM is just downright freakish right now - overlaying the weather symbols, the map shows FOUR low pressure systems in the GOM! The remnants of Tammy, 93L, a low north of 93L, and another one in the west. Never seen anything like it before.

Update: Well now I only see three lows... one off the Yucatan, 93L, one west of 93L... the map shows nothing associated with the remnant of Tammy, which is looking amazingly well organized for what is left of it.


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Oct 07 2005 02:12 AM
Re: qualms

the latest surface chart from TAFB

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/GULF_latest.gif

the low off of the tip of yucatan i saw early today moving ashore... should exit south of cancun if it holds...(here's GOES 12 i was watching see the low?

the low over panahandle.../x-tammy.... is off okaloosa county (sandestin/destin) and moving southward... (notice in above graphics was forecast to move from SE ala.... towards the big bend area... clearly i think it's much more to the west and under or just to the north of the ULL in the GOM...

having a time trying to find 93L tonight... i still think it's there... just weak...


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Oct 07 2005 04:39 AM
Re: qualms on all the systems

Seems like every system out there has at least two "ifs" that could happen ..

Thanks for the discussion here HankFrank and everyone else.Trying to make some sense of it.

I think the wave is looking more and more likely to be a player if it doesn't fall apart.. as it is staying low.

The area south of Cuba is hanging in there, reminds me of a few systems that John Hope ended up watching carefully because of persistence yet in the beginning he didn't think much of. Persistence does pay.

Wondering on remnants of Tammy.

Yes..lots of qualms..lots of "ifs" ...

Thanks for trying to make some sense of it all..


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Oct 07 2005 04:50 AM
Re: qualms on all the systems

may be my eyes... but i think there are more storms near x-tammy center tonight than in last 12-24hrs.... the low is off-shore and looks to be tracking wsw.....is tammy making a comeback? it's been a weird season.... she would have to fight that ULL and that approaching cold front...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/evx_N0R_lp.shtml Eglin Nexrad

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/mob_N0R_lp.shtml Mobile Nexrad


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Oct 07 2005 06:16 AM
Re: qualms on all the systems

done some quick research...... and based on a few things... looks like the low south of pensacola is moving westsouthwest..... and based on radar.... there are some storms near center....(87.3w 29.7n) used MOB ridge site..... also was looking at Water Vapor and it looks like the ULL and surface low are almost on top of each other..... storms that are near the center.... only go up to about 17-20ft from what i see.... and there is alot of DRY air around... mostly to the east... also took a look at the buoy's near the rotation ....

Station 42040 - MOBILE SOUTH 64 nm South of Dauphin Island, AL
(based on my quick distance calculation: buoy is 65 miles to SW of center)
As of 11:50pm cdt
Winds: 20kts gust: 25kts
dir: NNW
Pressure: 29.67 -0.02in (falling)
wave hgt. 7ft
water temp: 81

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/mob_N0R_lp.shtml Loop from Mobile

OH YEAH...this is from the TWOAT at 10:30pm

"THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TAMMY WERE ABSORBED BY A LARGE
NON-TROPICAL LOW OBER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OR MEXICO. "


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Fri Oct 07 2005 09:54 AM
6AM EDT Update

From the New Orleans NWS Area Forecast Discussion...very nice morning wrap up!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
358 AM CDT FRI OCT 7 2005

.DISCUSSION...
REMNANTS OF TAMMY HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. ESTIMATED LOCATION IS 195 MILES EAST OF NEW ORLEANS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING AROUND THE CENTER BUT CONDITIONS ARE FAR FROM FAVORABLE FOR ANY FORMATION INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND VERY DRY AIR AT THE SFC WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUITE UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY STRENGTHENING. THE PROBLEM IS NOT INTENSIFICATION BUT MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. THE SFC LOW IS NOT IN A HURRY TO MOVE ANYWHERE JUST YET AND THE STRONG HIGH RIDGING FROM THE NW IS CAUSING THE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE NW AND W OF THE SYSTEM. THIS IS CAUSING CONVERGENCE TO STRENGTHEN ALONG WITH WINDS ON THAT SIDE AS WELL. WILL KEEP SLIGHT POPS IN FOR GPT AND MSY WITH THESE CONVERGENT BANDS UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS PICKED UP AND SENT NE.

(bold emphasis added~danielw)
By the way...The 5 AM EDT Trop. Weather Outlook contains no mention of the system formally known as Tammy, or the Low that is currently South of Pensacola and moving toward the East.
The Low has basically performed a U-Turn during the night. Being pushed back eastward by a cool front currently moving through Mississippi.


GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Fri Oct 07 2005 11:08 AM
Re: 6AM EDT Update

Ok, now, I just woke up to a nice looking swirl coming off the northern Coast of the panhandle. Some one is on this I hope in that we have a lot of people in the area who have just about tuned out the rest of the season. I have heard my co-workers actually saying that they consider the tropical season to be over at the end of September and do not pay any attention. The other concern is the government is now focused on the subway system in New York City. How much chance of turning into a disaster does this little swirl in GOM have? Will this storm have a chance to build before the cold front behind it sweeps it toward the peninsula of Florida. Will the cold front stall and feed the swirl rather than rush it along? Will the system east of Florida serve to stall the swirl in the Gulf or will the reverse happen? Stay tuned for the newest soap opera on the site. Tammy meets Vince.

Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Fri Oct 07 2005 12:08 PM
Re: 6AM EDT Update

Quote:

Ok, now, I just woke up to a nice looking swirl coming off the northern Coast of the panhandle. Some one is on this I hope in that we have a lot of people in the area who have just about tuned out the rest of the season. I have heard my co-workers actually saying that they consider the tropical season to be over at the end of September and do not pay any attention. The other concern is the government is now focused on the subway system in New York City. How much chance of turning into a disaster does this little swirl in GOM have? Will this storm have a chance to build before the cold front behind it sweeps it toward the peninsula of Florida. Will the cold front stall and feed the swirl rather than rush it along? Will the system east of Florida serve to stall the swirl in the Gulf or will the reverse happen? Stay tuned for the newest soap opera on the site. Tammy meets Vince.




The "swrl" that appears to be south of Pensacola this morning - and not moving very much at all, to my eyes - won't have a snowball's chance to develop because of the approaching cold front. At least that's what the experts say, and at some point they're bound to be right about this system. Looking at the early morning satellite loop, the convection tried to make a comeback but the attempt appears to be fizzling even as I type this. I'd put the chance of development at somewhere less than the 1%.

As for Tammy meeting Vince... that's not going to happen. If the system were to develop into a tropical storm, it would have to retain the name Tammy, because from the time Tammy was considered to be disappated from the HPC at 5pm yesterday until now, the system hasn't disappated and reformed, it's held its own. For the NHC to rename this would be sillier than if they renamed Stan to something else in the EPAC.


HanKFranK
(User)
Fri Oct 07 2005 01:59 PM
add a new invest

it isn't on the navy site, but ssd rated that 'non-tropical low' near 23/58 as a t-1.0 earlier. been noticing that it has a small anticyclone aloft within the larger cyclonic flow. leads me to believe that it isn't a true cold core system, and based on the incrementally greater amounts of deep convection it has been building over the last 2-3 days, i'd say it's got a decent shot. that would be 95L i guess... whenever nrl takes notice of it. it's in a precarious environment and would become a sheared system were it to develop. general movement for the next few days should be wnw as ridging should persist to the north out past 70w.
94L out to its southeast is running into the blitz of upper southwesterlies that are part of the deep trough near 60w. it has looked very near development for days now, but hasn't ever focused a low level center or any sort. best bet is from here that it turns into a big sheared cluster of thunderstorms against the trough. probably going to finally gain some latitude as well.
93L isn't anything to write home about, but is still a distinct area of low pressure around the florida keys. it should move over southeast florida today and be moving nne along/off the east coast by this evening. it hasn't shown much proclivity to do anything and is now getting caught in the southerly flow east of the deep layer low off the panhandle (the one that slurped up tammy yesterday). still has a long way to go to become a tropical cyclone, and that's just not so likely anymore. that panhandle low has the front encroaching on it and should become involved shortly.
former stan is still well defined off the mexican west coast. if that were in the caribbean it would be a depression.. there is obvious low level circulation and deep convection. due to shear it's getting ignored, but it meets most of the criteria for a tropical system.
in the coming days a lot of modeling persists low pressure near and east of florida, and around the nw caribbean. there isn't a clear signal for a particular feature, but with the pattern like it is, no reason to expect the basin to stop acting up.
HF 1400z07october


tpratch
(Moderator)
Fri Oct 07 2005 02:11 PM
Re: add a new invest

There's a new thread , see you all there.


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