MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Oct 07 2005 11:14 AM |
Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves - Subtorpical Depression Short Lived
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11:45PM Update
Just a quick update to mention Subtropical Depression 22, which had formed earlier today and has already stopped being tracked by the Hurricane center.
Lots of clouds still in the areas, but still nothng ready to form otherwise.
Original Update
There are several areas worth watching in the tropics, but nothing in the short term looks like it will develop.
First off, close to home, we have a wave between Cuba and the Keys, referred to as 93L, this is still very disorganized and it is still very unfavorible for development.
This one will cause more rain over Florida today.
Chances for tropical development of the disturbance off the Keys in the next two days.
Code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[-*--------------------]
Beyond that there is 94L, which is miles east of the Leeward Islands in the Central Atlantic. This one has a better chance to develop, but still not for the next few days.
This one needs to be watched for potential affects on the Leeward Islands, but right now it seems most likely that it will head out to sea before that.
Chances for tropical development of the disturbance east of the Leeward Islands (94L).
Code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[------*---------------]
There is another wave over the Leeward Islands themselvs right now, this one could develop over the next few days, but right now it remains fairly disorganized.
Chances for tropical development of the disturbance over the Leeward Islands.
Code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[------*---------------]
Another wave in the Central Atlantic Northeast of Puerto Rico This is mainly non tropical right now, and has a very low chance, but it's worth watching.
Chances for tropical development of the wave northeast of Puerto Rico.
Code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[-*--------------------]
The disturbed area in the Western Caribbean somewhat associated with 93L is still hanging out there, too, and may have to be watched later if it decouples and hangs around there.
Event Related Links
Event Related Links
Jacksonville, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Key West, FL Long Range Radar
San Juan, PR Long Range Radar
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Stormcarib reports from the islands
93L Yucatan Area
94L
| wasup |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Oct 07 2005 02:05 PM |
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Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves
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Newbie here, wondering if the cold front will stall as it gets near Florida and sit there and develop on the tail end of the system? Will the cold front and all the other features out there interact? if they do, will Florida take the force of the interaction? I live in Fort Lauderdale
Thanks
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 07 2005 02:13 PM |
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Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves
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GGEM (essentially the CMC) has a very interesting take on the Western Atlantic Basin near the end of next week...
http://ggweather.com/loops/canada_all.htm
It appears as though it is taking the U/A low currently near 23/59 and boring it to the surface over the next few days, while slowly moving it generally W.
The picture if complicated in the Atlantic Ocean for this weekend, early next week and beyond. There is a tendency unanimously across all guidance to build the W Atlantic heights actually further W.
In fact, it makes it unclear why most NWS offices are choosing to go with the more progressive models solutions regarding the frontal positioning by this Monday. It seems certainly plausible to this meteorologist that this boundary may in fact wash out altogether, and/or just be ineffectual at changing the synopsis beneath the middle troposphere. I suspect in the very least we will be left with a persistent S inflow of subtropical if not down right tropical air mass that will be oriented essentially S to N as we head into next week. (It may just be that the models are also overdoing the strenghth of antecedent anticyclone slated to migrate over the NW Atlantic at that time. I say so because it appears a bit questionable how intense the attending mid-level confluence will be with this feature.. A weaker feature would mean less suppression. Meanwhile, the GGEM solutions...
Also, the NOGAPs currently depicts a significant weakness in the vicinity of the SE Bahamas (thereabouts) for its days 5 and beyond, and this could be an attempt to latch onto similar thinking; especially considering that the overall synoptic tone of the NOGAPs is not too different from the GGEM.
Anyway, this will all be very interesting to watch because the U/A low in question is currently intensifying its convection closer to the center as we go on in time.. And, there are certain aspects about the GGEM solution that are quite believable because it elucidates both elements of peristence but also compliments the teleconnectors for this part of the hemisphere... I would say, of the extended range depictions we have seen thus far this late summer and autumn, this is the most confident - *however, confidence in any tropical phenomenon is by current science fleeting at best.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 07 2005 03:01 PM |
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Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves
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Man, and here I thought HankFrank was sometimes too technical for my uneducated mind.... I dont get one single thing you just tried to tell us
that being said, I did look at the models you mentioned and see some things you are probably talking about so I guess in the end it is all copasetic. 
heyyyy..... and what's copasetic mean anyway? -HF
| Hootowl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 07 2005 03:09 PM |
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Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves
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95L on the Navy site.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 07 2005 03:16 PM |
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Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves
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Quote:
Man, and here I thought HankFrank was sometimes too technical for my uneducated mind.... I dont get one single thing you just tried to tell us
Ah , sorry , my bad...
Basically I'm just saying (perhaps too implicitly) that the feature of interest (to me) should really be the hurricane being modeled by the CMC, which is also being somewhat supported by the NOGAPs - MET 101, it is always better to have more than one model forecasting a feature of interest.
What I also didn't mention is that the operational ECM and GFS models do not readily depict a feature such as the former two. However, and what I meant by "teleconnector" before, is that there is higher surface pressure in the means over the NW Atlantic and tending to migrate E.. This tends to lower surface pressure more than normal (potentially so) in the SW Atlantic Basin as a balancing mechanic against the higher surface pressure to the N. What this means is that you have an augmented (or enhanced) potential for cyclonic genesis between Cape Hatteras, Cuba and Bermuda. That area should be monitored for old frontal draps, U/A lows (such as that which we have approaching the area) and also TW's.
Having said all that... Hmmm...I wasn't paying attention but there is a gyre rotating around about 100miles ESE of the mouth of the Mississippi. I am uncertain whether this feature is a portion Tammy's remnants that might have sheared SW while she was in decay mode, but my memory is telling me that it is actually a separate entity. Either way, it has intense showers near it axis of rotation and though the U/A (as HPC has mentioned) is unfavorable over Florida and Cuba, I think it is actually "somewhat" better near this feature's precise lat/lon. Anyway...active tropics!
| Reaper |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 07 2005 04:07 PM |
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Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves
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Does anyone have a link to the South Florida Water Management web-page which lists all of the current storm tracks?
That way I won't have to keep changing the storm number/name in the URL....
Much thanks...
| CoalCracker |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 07 2005 04:14 PM |
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Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves
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Reaper,
Here's the link you requested to the SFWMD plot site.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots.html
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 07 2005 04:51 PM |
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Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves
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They actually did a SHIPS run this morning for 21L (Tammy's remains) over the northern Gulf. Not much development was indicated though. The SHIPS run for 95L this morning showed steady intensification to hurricane strength in about 48 hours. This DOES NOT mean that the model is forecasting 95L to become a hurricane... the model runs under the assumption that the system is already a tropical cyclone, which 95L is not. However, the intensification shown in the model suggests that conditions would generally be favorable for intensification if 95L does become a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours.
Here is a link to some early model tracks for 95L:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_95.gif
There is a well-defined surface circulation near the GA coast right now... it's too small and too close to land for much tropical development, but it will enhance the tornado threat across coastal areas of northern GA and the Carolinas, where a Tornado Watch has recently been issued.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 07 2005 05:29 PM |
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Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves
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Quote:
There is a well-defined surface circulation near the GA coast right now... it's too small and too close to land for much tropical development, but it will enhance the tornado threat across coastal areas of northern GA and the Carolinas, where a Tornado Watch has recently been issued.
That's an interesting little feature isn't it... Actually, if I didn't know any better I'd suggest we are looking at at supercell. Notice when looking at visible imagery that the area on it's backside suddenly clears out, as a band extends cyclonically in its right exit region as the system moves N. This is classic. We see this in the Plains states during severe weather outbreaks. Basically, dry air/subsidence into the back side is clearing it out as the ingest on the front side draws in warm unstable air. This way, the warm ingest is not being impeded by the relatively stable air on the backside and the storm is allowed to perpetuate - i.e., supercell. Doesn't necessarily mean a tornado is on the ground or anything like that, but, it is wise to have a tornado watch in effect for the areas N and NE along the coastal plain of SC. Fascinating.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 07 2005 05:46 PM |
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Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves
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There definitely seems to be a supercell-type storm near the northern GA coast, though it appears to have been spawned by a somewhat larger-scale (larger than supercell scale, but small-scale in the grand scheme of things) circulation.
Convection continues to increase in the northern Caribbean. Westerly shear seems to have given way to northeasterly shear in that area, though the overall shear seems less than in the last couple of days. No signs of anything developing at the surface there.
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 07 2005 07:28 PM |
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Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves
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I was looking on the NHC page and they have this as a area of interest. Is this 95L or a past storm ? Kind of ominous that track wouldn`t you think if it is 95L ?....Weatherchef..... web page
| Big Kahuna |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 07 2005 08:36 PM |
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Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves
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Navy site dropped 95L but its still on the back up site. Looking at some model runs , CMC, GFS and NOGAPS had something coming off the Dominican in a couple of days.... We'll see....
Back up site http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sat Oct 08 2005 04:33 AM |
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Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves
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hmmm... 93L sorta troughed out. you can still see it east of florida, but it doesn't look like anything trying to develop at this point. 94L and 95L are still out there. they switched appearances today as 95L looks elongated within its tiny anticyclone inside a trough environment. 94L finally has the convective appearance it's been lacking for the last 2-3 days but is now just about into the shear zone. lot of the models are keeping a big low pressure near hispaniola and slingshotting 95L around it towards the mid-atlantic states next week. most show it as a wave... a couple have a closed low. add up the odds and it still looks like something should develop out of all this... pattern would support it, and there are several individual features that could serve as an initiator. of course nothing says it has to happen.
HF 0433z08october
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sat Oct 08 2005 09:08 AM |
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Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves
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holy crap. go to the ghcc zoom satellite link at the bottom of the nhc satellite page, and take a look at a shot from the meteosat (east atlantic, africa, europe) zoomed in on the canaries. that azores system has dropped southeast and looks to have completely occluded. ssd rated it a st 3.0 (calling it 96L, something nrl hasn't picked up on), which would be a very powerful subtropical storm. nhc always ignores things out there, and it is over water near 70F, but i'd bet there's a good warm seclusion within that cool environment, similar to what happened with peter in december 2003. that's the sort of hybrid system that would have everybody singing and dancing if it were, say, racing up the eastern seaboard. kudos to the nhc if they mention it in the 5:30 TWO. correction, that's near madeira island off nw africa.
worth note that 95L has improved overnight and is now rated st 2.5, which is probably excessive. a persistence of its current structure or improvement would probably result in a classified system, so it isn't far off. most modeling isn't doing much with this system, but its energy is tracked wnw through the next few days towards the mid atlantic coast. it'll be noteworthy in case this thing develops.
to the southeast 94L has again uncoiled its overnight burst of deep convection. there is still plenty around it and in the upper-air diffluence on its northern side. as the upper trough ahead of it is sharpening and retrograding there is no certainty that it will kill the invest. it may remain coherent as it moves generally nw .over the next few days. there's actually still some modest ridging over the top of it, but it isn't sustaining convection.
closer to home 93L is jetting nne east of florida right now. too much shear and a very elongated nature makes this more of a trough max than anything else, but it will generate a good bit of squally weather for eastern nc and eventually new england as it accelerates northward.
there are a couple of swirls.. one in the central bahamas and another in the nw caribbean.. that are worth a glance, but not doing anything as of yet.
pretty much all the 00z runs have a tropical system in the western atlantic by early next week. seems axiomatic that we're going to get a mid-october storm.
HF 0908z08october
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Oct 08 2005 09:23 AM |
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Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves
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Ratings like that would indicate 2 sub tropical storms. I wonder how much of this is the NHC wanting to avoid running out of names. After all, subtropical storms get names now.
Eh, the TWO doesn't mention the Azores storm, but the other one is mentioned... Maybe they're just waiting for visible light before pulling the trigger?
Speaking of Azores storm:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/tropics.cgi
Anyone else see a possible 'eye-like' feature? It may simply be an artefact of the cloud organization, but it makes me go hmmmm
And looking at the most recent quikscat, there are a ton of 45 kt wind vectors out there in the system, so at this point, maybe they're also just waiting for it to be 'warm core' enough...
-Mark
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Sat Oct 08 2005 10:47 AM |
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Azores system
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surprised the system nr the Azores hasn't been classified yet. with tnumbers of ST3 it might have a shot at classification when the visibles are out. will be surprised if it doesn't get named.
Regards
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Oct 08 2005 12:45 PM |
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Re: Azores system
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Quote:
surprised the system nr the Azores hasn't been classified yet. with tnumbers of ST3 it might have a shot at classification when the visibles are out. will be surprised if it doesn't get named.
The thing SE of Bermuda looks good on static IR (loading the loop now)... Well based on the loop I can't tell if it's spinning or not.
NRL does not have a floater on the Azores system, so I doubt that will be classified. It will probably be deemed cold core and thus not eligible for naming. NRL pages are not loading fully for me this morning, though. 93L has disappated so that's oine less name that will be used up. Area east of the Windwards is totally disorganized, and I don't see that developing either.
Who knows, it MIGHT be quiet for the rest of the season?
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Oct 08 2005 01:17 PM |
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Re: Azores system
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Special Tropical Disturbance Statement: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIADSAAT+shtml/081241.shtml?
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Sat Oct 08 2005 01:43 PM |
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Its here - 22L
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just a quick post - FNMOC now have the system between Bermuda and the Caribbean up as 22L. expect advisories to be initiated at 1500z.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Oct 08 2005 02:35 PM |
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Re: Its here - 22L
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Quote:
just a quick post - FNMOC now have the system between Bermuda and the Caribbean up as 22L. expect advisories to be initiated at 1500z.
It will be a fish-spinner/name-user. A month and a half plus left in the season, and we'll be down to Wilma.
Clouds have started to pick up on the northwest side of the remnants of Tammy... which now appears to be moving eastward across the north GOM... low should move inland north of Tampa without any formation, though.
Well on second thought.... Bermuda has issued a tropical storm watch... and the computer model on WU has it move WNW to NW and approaching the east coast in several days before turning NE out to sea.... so it MIGHT not be a fish spinner after all.
Subtropical storms have only been named for the last few years (I forget exactly when they started naming them)... but this could become tropical anyway.
they started naming them around 2002... believe gustav that year was the first. before that it was numbers but more often classification at post analysis (the TWOs would mention a nontropical low that might acquire tropical characteristics for a few days but the nhc would never issue advisories). -HF
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Oct 08 2005 02:47 PM |
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Re: Its here - 22L
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NHC has subtropical depression 22 up on its home page.
| dave foster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Oct 08 2005 03:56 PM |
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Re: Its here - 22L
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Does anyone else think that 22L is looking less impressive now than it did 3 hours ago?
Might it be fizzling out before it's had a chance to get started...
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Sat Oct 08 2005 04:05 PM |
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Azores - Canary Islands system
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well satellite imagery shows that the system between the Azores and the Canaries really is getting its act together. it even looks better organised than STD22, with a well defined convective band in both the north and south semicircles. given that it is slow moving it could develop further. good to see nhc now paying attention to it in the latest two - and suggesting it too could be classified as another subtropical system if the organization continues.
Regards
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sat Oct 08 2005 05:37 PM |
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Re: Azores - Canary Islands system
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subtrop 22 is taking southeasterly shear... coincident with its direction of travel. the strong upper low to the south is shearing it from the east, in spite of its westward track... which suggests that it isn't being steered by/strongly associated with the upper trough anymore. up ahead on its track as it pulls away from the upper low, and ridging to the north controls its movement.. it should encounter modestly favorable conditions. ssts on its forecast track wouldn't support more than a tropical storm or weak hurricane under normal circumstances... the official looks about right there. that's assuming that the convective area to the east doesn't start competing with 22 and robbing all of its inflow... in which case the system would sputter westward and not really develop as per many of the models.
the upper low north of puerto rico has very strong drill-down potential, since it isn't moving quickly and already has turning at the surface.. and is over warm waters with a ridge to the north. don't be surprised if the upper low becomes the hurricane that several of the forecast models have originating around it.
well, i'll call it 96L... the powerful subtropical cyclone a few hundred miles west of morocco. the system has slowed down and is over fairly cool waters, so has probably peaked... as the environment around it is surely moderating and it doesn't have the same kind of differential to maintain the intensity it had. it may perk up a little as it gets drawn up into a baroclinic zone towards the british isles early next week... but i don't think its appearance will improve anymore so the nhc will probably not operationally classify it. at least they added it to the TWO. post analysis will be iffy as well, as it has existed beyond the periphery of the usual source region for tropical cyclones, and has obvious baroclinic origin. interesting system nonetheless.
not to forget 94L, but it is going to struggle. when it had a good vertical environment it sort of dawdled.. now it is under more substantial shear. there is enough upstream diffluence to support some convection as it continues wnw, but systems like this don't typically make it. it may end up entrained by the developing deep-layer complex ahead of it.
HF 1736z08october
| dave foster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Oct 08 2005 10:11 PM |
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Re: Azores - Canary Islands system
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I've been watching 22L all day now. What I have noticed is the dry airstream to the north of 22L
slowly pushing west and south and curling around 22L. If it continues to do so for the next
6 to 10 hours I can see it curling up to the northeast around the back of 22L causing it to
deepen and take up a more westerly or south-westerly direction.
I know what the predictions are for 22L, and I also know that what I am saying flies in the face of the
official line. Being new to this I would be pleased if any of the more experienced storm trackers in the
forum would care to comment, even if it's only to call me crazy or any other choice phrase.
I am still trying to gain an impression of what makes these storms tick, how they are formed and what
drives them. I would really appreciate any feedback whatsoever if it helps me to get on the right track
and provides me with the insight I am looking for.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sun Oct 09 2005 01:21 AM |
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Re: Azores - Canary Islands system
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96L has a tropical appearance, within the larger deep-layer trough environment. that's one of the clearest cases for a subtropical storm that i've ever seen. nhc has to be scratching their head over what to do with it because it's way the hell east of where systems are usually trackable. of course back in 1998 nicole did come out of that general area.. perhaps it'll get the nod at 11. clark would know how it looks on phase-analysis... hope he shows up this evening.
subtd 22 is still strongly sheared out of the east. flow continue to push it west for the early part of the period... if it goes too far it'll have to content with the northerly shear zone upstream of it's location. so far it hasn't gone quite north enough to take advantage of the ridging/good outflow environment to the north, but is remaining over ssts marginal to support a hurricane. a half day's abatement of shear would allow this storm to get going, but as of now it's still questionable whether it gets named, as it hasn't escaped the shear that started on it this morning.
94L has a good outflow environment to its east, but is struggling where it is. likelihood of near term development is low, but may improve in the long-run if it can remain coherent.
don't think the globals have the system originating early in the week near the greater antilles right. it may be a drill down or a storm that forms under the ridging near the bahamas upstream of the trough. or it could be that the conflicting forces allow nothing to go. there are enough models swinging a deep tropical low northward by bermuda towards cape cod to be a interested, but the evolution still doesn't look right.
HF 0121z09october
| sara33 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Oct 09 2005 01:52 AM |
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Re: Azores - Canary Islands system
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96L? Can someone please give the coordinates..I did not see it on the Navy site yet. Thanks
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Oct 09 2005 02:20 AM |
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Re: Azores - Canary Islands system
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The disturbance between the Azores and the Canaries is showing up as very weakly symmetric but shallow warm core in the GFS and with ambiguous symmetry and on the border between deep cold core and shallow warm core on the UKMET and NOGAPS. (Finally got everything fixed...think the NHC people probably fired off an e-mail to get it done because they needed it!) Trends have been more subtropical than cold-core, but with little further warm core development from here. Will be an interesting case -- they are generally lax to name/classify those systems, but this is a pretty clear-cut case (IMO) for it. We'll see at 11 or 5.
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Oct 09 2005 02:28 AM |
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Re: Azores - Canary Islands system
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The Latest Statelite for 96L On FNMOC is very impressive if i didn't know any better i'd say it was a hurricane. haha But nhc should classify it. There is no dought it is a ST Cyclone an a strong one at that.
web page
| sara33 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Oct 09 2005 02:41 AM |
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Re: Azores - Canary Islands system
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Thanks for the info Clark! Now.. I'm new to this so what exactly is the difference between a subtropical system and a tropical system??Thanks Guys! Just trying to learn.
Christine
...
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Oct 09 2005 02:46 AM |
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Re: Azores - Canary Islands system
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Quote:
Thanks for the info Clark! Now.. I'm new to this so what exactly is the difference between a subtropical system and a tropical system??Thanks Guys! Just trying to learn.
Christine
Subtropical tend to have colder cores with the max winds located well from the center of circulation. Tropical is a warm core with the max winds located in a tight core.
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Oct 09 2005 02:46 AM |
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Re: Azores - Canary Islands system
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Here is what Nhc Has to say about ST Cyclones
Subtropical Cyclone:
A non-frontal low pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones.
The most common type is an upper-level cold low with circulation extending to the surface layer and maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 100 miles or more from the center. In comparison to tropical cyclones, such systems have a relatively broad zone of maximum winds that is located farther from the center, and typically have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.
A second type of subtropical cyclone is a mesoscale low originating in or near a frontolyzing zone of horizontal wind shear, with radius of maximum sustained winds generally less than 30 miles. The entire circulation may initially have a diameter of less than 100 miles. These generally short-lived systems may be either cold core or warm core.
| sara33 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Oct 09 2005 02:50 AM |
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Re: Azores - Canary Islands system
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Thanks everyone! So much to learn...I LOVE this board!
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Oct 09 2005 03:06 AM |
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Re: Azores - Canary Islands system
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Well 12 hours is short lived That was The worst cyclone I have ever seen even worse that Lee This year.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Oct 09 2005 04:17 AM |
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Re: Azores - Canary Islands system
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Not sure why this isn't at least a ST storm. QuikSCAT shows the maximum winds very near the center of circulation (with some strong winds also in the outer reaches of the very broad cyclonic environment), the microwave passes show a very well-defined inner-core -- a small one, but well-defined nonetheless. Eye-like feature may be a convective artifact, but the fact that it is showing up on all of the passes at all levels lends some credence to the idea that it is an actual feature.
This one doesn't get classified if the NHC gets political on us and doesn't want to use up another name. It won't make it to Spain as a classified storm, but it should be one now. We'll see what happens at 5 & 11am.
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Sun Oct 09 2005 08:05 AM |
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Re: Azores - Canary Islands system
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Agreed Clark, 96L should be a classified system. It certainly seems to meet the criteria at least for ST classification. It has again been given TNumbers of ST3.0/ST3.0 at 0600z this morning from SSD. It has consistently been given these TNumbers for at least the past 48 hours, numbers which shortlived STD22 didnt even attain. The convective structure remains well organised and intact with good convective banding features. The core remains relatively clear. And the winds are strong - potentially making it a ST Storm. Of course, the proximity to Spain and the Canary Islands probably are its inhibiting factors to classification
We may see this go unclassified, but given the current and recent data on this system, it might have a shot at classification in the post season analysis.Regards
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Oct 09 2005 11:51 AM |
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Re: Azores - Canary Islands system
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Quote:
Agreed Clark, 96L should be a classified system. It certainly seems to meet the criteria at least for ST classification. It has again been given TNumbers of ST3.0/ST3.0 at 0600z this morning from SSD. It has consistently been given these TNumbers for at least the past 48 hours, numbers which shortlived STD22 didnt even attain. The convective structure remains well organised and intact with good convective banding features. The core remains relatively clear. And the winds are strong - potentially making it a ST Storm. Of course, the proximity to Spain and the Canary Islands probably are its inhibiting factors to classification
Regards
The blasted thing has an EYE for crissake! (looking at NRL loop)... yet the NHC says it is non-tropical, and over cold water. How can anyone have much faith in the NHC forecasts when they ignore a hurricane (or at least a strong tropical storm), saying it is non-tropical?
Update: Dr. Lyons just called it a "subtropical" system and said "best I can estimate winds are about 30-35 mph".... the cloud tops don't look impressive on the colorized IR, either. Still, it should be classified if the short-lived subtropical low near Bermuda was classified!
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Oct 09 2005 01:19 PM |
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Re: Azores - Canary Islands system
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Tropical Storm Vince now Winds 50mph
TROPICAL STORM VINCE (AL232005) ON 20051009 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051009 1200 051010 0000 051010 1200 051011 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 33.8N 19.3W 34.7N 17.6W 36.0N 14.5W 37.9N 10.2W
BAMM 33.8N 19.3W 34.8N 17.7W 36.2N 14.8W 38.4N 11.1W
A98E 33.8N 19.3W 34.0N 18.4W 34.4N 16.2W 35.8N 12.8W
LBAR 33.8N 19.3W 34.9N 17.5W 36.5N 14.9W 38.0N 11.5W
SHIP 45KTS 45KTS 46KTS 47KTS
DSHP 45KTS 45KTS 46KTS 47KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051011 1200 051012 1200 051013 1200 051014 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 40.0N 5.7W 42.4N 2.9E 44.6N 8.1E 46.0N 12.3E
BAMM 41.0N 7.3W 46.5N .2W 51.9N 2.7E 52.3N 3.7E
A98E 36.7N 9.0W 33.4N 2.8W 34.4N 2.0E 42.2N 10.4E
LBAR 38.8N 7.5W 38.1N 1.1W 38.2N 3.4E 41.3N 3.2E
SHIP 48KTS 50KTS 52KTS 48KTS
DSHP 35KTS 30KTS 30KTS 30KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 33.8N LONCUR = 19.3W DIRCUR = 45DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 33.2N LONM12 = 20.0W DIRM12 = 54DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 33.0N LONM24 = 20.3W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 60NM
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Oct 09 2005 01:28 PM |
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Re: Azores - Canary Islands system
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Maybe i am missing something, but i don't think there is a storm named Vince. Myabe there should be, but as of now i haven't seen it.
| Cycloneye11 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 09 2005 01:37 PM |
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Vince
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http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
NRL has it already as Vince so you can expect the first advisorie at 11 AM.Now the 2005 season is only one name away from the tie to the record 1933 season.
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Sun Oct 09 2005 01:45 PM |
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Re: Vince
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wonder how much of a threat Vince will be to Madeira. Outer bands already affecting the island.
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Sun Oct 09 2005 02:40 PM |
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Re: Vince
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I save all the satellite loops frame by frame as individual jpegs, and then later compile them into various animated QuickTime files for posterity (I’m such a loser). Looking at the system’s overall life thus far, the eye feature looked to be a convective illusion, so to speak... but now it has a very wrapped appearance, especially in the latest frames.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/EAST/CATL/RGB_loop.html
EDIT: hey... forcaster knabb just took the words right out of your mouths, guys.
| Lsr1166 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 09 2005 02:57 PM |
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Re: Vince
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NHC just posted Vince...
000
WTNT33 KNHC 091446
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM VINCE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005
...20TH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN AN UNUSUAL LOCATION... IN
THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC SOUTHEAST OF THE AZORES AND CLOSE TO THE
MADEIRA ISLANDS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE PREVIOUSLY NON-TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BETWEEN THE AZORES AND THE CANARY ISLANDS HAS
ACQUIRED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VINCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 19.2 WEST OR ABOUT
515 MILES... 830 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE AZORES. THIS POSITION
IS ALSO ABOUT 140 MILES... 225 KM... NORTHWEST OF THE MADEIRA
ISLANDS.
VINCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.